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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News, Bloomberg Money.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with

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Speaker 2: Scarlet Foo. Join us each week for a smart look

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Speaker 2: at the forces shaping your financial life. On personal finance,

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Speaker 2: on retirement and wealth management. We will explore how people

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Speaker 2: are earning, investing, and building wealth. We are live Fridays

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Speaker 2: at noon Eastern on Bloomberg Television. Subscribe to the podcast

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Speaker 2: wherever you listen, and is always on the Bloomberg Terminal

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Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business app. What I want to talk

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Speaker 2: about is unspoken. Everything is down in a market. Apple

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Speaker 2: like a rock on the edge of a five trillion

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Speaker 2: dollar company. Is personal Finance by Apple twenty years ago and.

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Speaker 1: Just hold it well for some people.

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Speaker 3: But increasingly Americans are having a hard time saving for

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Speaker 3: retirement because of rising living They're not putting money into

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Speaker 3: their retirement accounts because they have to pay for the

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Speaker 3: kiddie litter.

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Speaker 2: They got to pay for the kidy litter, they got

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Speaker 2: to pay for school. And that will talk about some

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Speaker 2: of those themes today. I think what's fascinating here is

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Speaker 2: Mark German with that story a few days ago on

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Speaker 2: rebuilding the iPad and it's these buy and hold companies

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Speaker 2: that's what makes.

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Speaker 4: A winning retirement.

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Speaker 1: That's what makes a real winning retirement.

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Speaker 3: We're going to get into all of that and whether

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Speaker 3: there's a room for bonds in that portfolio.

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Speaker 4: Well, bonds is a big thing. We're going to do

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Speaker 4: that here. We're going to do that in a bit. Here.

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Speaker 2: We have a wonderful guest for you today, Noural Raubini.

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Speaker 2: Not the normal Rabini you think you know, yes, senior

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Speaker 2: economic strategist Hudson Bay Capital, but Nora Rabini when he

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Speaker 2: was with Clinton, when he was trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: the future of social security. We'll talk to Professor Rubini

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Speaker 2: about his crisis that he's seen.

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Speaker 3: Right the softer side of Norael Raubini. We've also got

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Speaker 3: Amanda Line. I'm Chief Credit Strategies at Goldman Sacks. Fancy title,

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Speaker 3: but we're going to keep our topic of conversation very basic.

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Speaker 3: The failure of bonds to produce much in the way

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Speaker 3: of total returns in the last five years.

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Speaker 4: Back to be fair, it was like a five.

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Speaker 3: But twenty twenty two, you know, is scarred in our brains.

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Speaker 4: Let's scarred everyone.

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Speaker 2: They had a great moderation for years and then up

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Speaker 2: we went.

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Speaker 4: Let's do this.

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Speaker 2: Let's do a data check right now, and it's on

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Speaker 2: the stock market and it's not so pretty apple as

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Speaker 2: I said, like a rock is really holding on well,

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Speaker 2: you wouldn't know it anywhere else.

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Speaker 4: But it is better from when Scar.

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Speaker 2: Came in the door today at nine fifty five am,

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Speaker 2: nastack down one percent.

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Speaker 4: It was down two percent or more in futures.

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Speaker 2: We ought to a VICX of nineteen and we do

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Speaker 2: better now to take much better in the last two hours.

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Speaker 1: It certainly is all right.

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Speaker 3: Let's take a look at what's going on in a

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Speaker 3: cross asset. You have the tenure yield not doing much

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Speaker 3: of anything, basically at four and a half percent. After

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Speaker 3: this week's inflation prints showed that price pressures are easing.

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Speaker 3: The dollar also not doing a whole lot. But the

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Speaker 3: story for this year is a stronger dollar because the

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Speaker 3: US economy remains resilient.

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Speaker 1: But the big story is in oil. The bottom of.

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Speaker 3: Oil prices coincided with the end of the first half,

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Speaker 3: and since it started the second half, Brent, which you

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Speaker 3: see there, has gone from the low seventies, was highs

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Speaker 3: the mid eighties, a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Of news flow as well, and what will be the.

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Speaker 1: News was open. It's kind of an unanswerable question.

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Speaker 2: It's a unanswerable question right now, I would say because

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Speaker 2: insight Vanessa there, Okay, here's.

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Speaker 4: The reality fault.

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Speaker 2: Michael Ball, Eric Beltunas, the Foo and me. We're only

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Speaker 2: here because Vanessa Perdomo has World Cup tickets to give us, right,

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 5: I think that would be quite a price time for everyone.

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Speaker 2: It's up to seven thousand dollars I saw in my life,

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Speaker 2: and that was a few days ago. We've got a

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Speaker 2: great set of people where there's Eric Beltunas holds a

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Speaker 2: high ground on exchange traded funds for Vanessa Perdomo drives

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Speaker 2: so much of our sports coverage as well. And Michael

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Speaker 2: Ball is with us as well. He's always like nerdo

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Speaker 2: fed stuff and we're going to talk to him some

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Speaker 2: of the basic responsibilities maybe the new chairman has. Eric,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining today. You stopped traffic

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Speaker 2: this week by saying our retirement system is now the

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Speaker 2: stock market discuss.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Look, it was the Trump account innouncement which I had

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Speaker 6: been following. But when you really dig into the numbers,

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Speaker 6: you know, fifty eight percent of Americans own stocks.

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Speaker 7: That is by far the most in the world.

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Speaker 6: So we're kind of an experiment here most countries is

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Speaker 6: only the rich people that own stocks. Trump accounts are

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Speaker 6: going to bring in like another twenty percent, maybe even

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Speaker 6: more depending on how many philanthropists get involved, And that

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Speaker 6: would be a lot of people who don't even care

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Speaker 6: or know about the stock market are now going to

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Speaker 6: have a kind of a vested interest in how it does.

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Speaker 6: So now you've got almost the entire voting public who

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Speaker 6: is going to care what the stock market does. So

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Speaker 6: if the Fed and the government have stepped in multiple

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Speaker 6: times since two thousand and eight, with more people interested

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Speaker 6: in it, you really can't let it go. You can't

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Speaker 6: let it fail. It's kind of like a public utility,

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Speaker 6: like the electro grid.

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Speaker 2: Right, I'm in the triple leverage Netflix account. That's really

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Speaker 2: working out today. Well, are we learning in the double

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Speaker 2: leverage triple leverage comedy that it's speculation and that investment?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: Absolutely, I think there's two a lot of games being

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Speaker 6: played at the same time in the stock market. You know,

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Speaker 6: there's plenty of money going into VU and Vanguard. I

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Speaker 6: call them the vanguardians. Then there's the digens, you know,

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Speaker 6: and they both buy the dip for different reasons, but

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Speaker 6: they're both playing different games. What some are trading, some

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Speaker 6: are going long term and ets. We see both both kinds.

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Speaker 6: But I'll say that the big blob of money is

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Speaker 6: generally pretty conservative. They're buying cheap beta both stocks, bonds,

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Speaker 6: and maybe some commodities, and they're holding for the long term.

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Speaker 7: And that's the It's just boring, you know.

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Speaker 6: They don't get much media because it's like, Okay, I'm

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Speaker 6: going to buy Voo today.

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Speaker 7: What else can I say? It's the S and P

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Speaker 7: five hundred.

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Speaker 6: We're going to talk about these shiny objects over here,

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Speaker 6: but most of the money is pretty vanilla.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about shiny objects, because two weeks

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Speaker 3: ago SpaceX was a shiny object, but it's now trading

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Speaker 3: below it's IPO price. Yeah, it's at about one twenty

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Speaker 3: four and change. What does that signal, Michael Ball about

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Speaker 3: speculative appetite right now? Because we know that there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot of volatility. How can you tell when

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Speaker 3: we're just going through normal swings versus there's really a change,

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Speaker 3: an inflection point in whether people chase rallies.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Two things.

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Speaker 8: It came in very expensive valuation wise, and it also

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Speaker 8: was sort of marketed as a neo cloud in the

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Speaker 8: sky literally floating around the planet versus a rocket ship company.

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Speaker 4: So it changed kind of flavor.

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Speaker 8: And it's now fallen into this momentum Unwine and almost

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Speaker 8: all things AI.

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Speaker 3: There are some other big IPOs to look forward to,

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Speaker 3: not just space X. We've got Anthropic Open AI at

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Speaker 3: some point, and Alphabet and other big tech companies are

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Speaker 3: busy selling stock. The setup seems to be there's going

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Speaker 3: to be a lot of supply coming to market. Do

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Speaker 3: you think, given the increased role that individual investors play

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Speaker 3: in the market, that there's going to be enough demand

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Speaker 3: to absorb all of this supply.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, And that's been the real macro dynamic changes here

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Speaker 8: that finally we're going to have more supply than demand.

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Speaker 8: The buyback story is actually worsened as well. We know

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Speaker 8: free cash flows come off from the hyperscollers and some

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Speaker 8: of the mega techs, so that's even more questionable next year.

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Speaker 8: But to your point, we keep getting new bytes of

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Speaker 8: additional paper coming to fund not only capex in AI

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Speaker 8: but even elsewhere with other IPOs coming more than expected

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Speaker 8: as people are sort of rushing in, and with credit

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Speaker 8: markets now looking a little more wildly, and some of

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Speaker 8: the rejection there from the paper that we've reached only

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Speaker 8: gotten it means ai paper may even come more for stocks.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I mean Michael helped me or dovetail this

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Speaker 2: in with that, Eric said, because Carol's got to get

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Speaker 2: to Vanessa. She's more important than we are in this conversation.

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Speaker 2: If German warsh levels or raises interest rates.

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Speaker 4: What does it do to my four oh one k?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, equity financing is actually coming up into conversation

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Speaker 8: again because this is a lot of balance sheet constraints

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Speaker 8: on the banks who helped not only help the paper

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Speaker 8: come to market through IPOs, but then actually lend to

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Speaker 8: the you know, not only buyside but other areas of

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Speaker 8: the market to borrow and basically buy stocks, and that

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Speaker 8: is coming under more pressure.

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Speaker 2: Are we asleep about any instabilities to come up here?

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Speaker 2: I mean in personal finance, retirement, wealth management?

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Speaker 4: Are we all in sleep right now?

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Speaker 8: So right now, as the macro picture stands, with growth

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Speaker 8: and inflation where it is, I think we can expect

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Speaker 8: maybe a reversal of the palle cuts and maybe a

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Speaker 8: subsequent maybe seventy five basis points of hikes just to

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Speaker 8: reset the levels and basically get markets. You know, even

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Speaker 8: but you know, I don't see a large hiking cycle

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Speaker 8: coming in. Worsh is certainly not signaling that, So I

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Speaker 8: don't you need to be surprised by any sort of

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Speaker 8: tail risk. What you should expect is that financial conditions

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Speaker 8: will be not easy.

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Speaker 4: Further, do you have a clue what he just said?

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Speaker 1: There a part of it, some of it. Well, let's

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Speaker 1: bring that back.

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Speaker 3: To the World Cup and how we spend our money

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Speaker 3: on a daily basis, because the buoyant stock market of

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years is one big reason why

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Speaker 3: you're seeing so much froth built into the World Cup.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Vanessa, you've been going to the matches, not

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Speaker 3: just necessarily in New York, New Jersey, but around the country,

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Speaker 3: and there's all these luxury suites built in. There's these

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Speaker 3: like fast ways for the uber wealthy to get to

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Speaker 3: these games where they don't have to wait in line

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Speaker 3: and put up with all the inconveniences that people who

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Speaker 3: pony up thousands of dollars do.

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Speaker 5: It's interesting because no matter who you are right now,

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Speaker 5: if you're going to the World Cup Final, you are

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Speaker 5: probably in an upper echelon level of having money. I mean,

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Speaker 5: getting into the World Cup Final is seven thousand dollars

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Speaker 5: just to get in. The average price and depending on

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Speaker 5: what you know secondary ticket marketing you look at it's

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Speaker 5: eleven to twelve thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: So but these ultra rich who are going to the

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Speaker 1: game and.

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Speaker 5: They're spending tens of thousands of dollars on helicopter rides,

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Speaker 5: they still have to find their way around the stadium.

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Speaker 5: They still have to deal with a little bit of

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Speaker 5: traffic as well.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so a little bit of friction there for even

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Speaker 3: the uber wealthy. The other thing about the World Cup

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Speaker 3: is kind of the cultural impact.

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Speaker 1: It's having all.

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Speaker 3: These footballers that people, you know, three months ago didn't

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Speaker 3: know who they were. Jude Bellingham, Earling Holland. Everyone knows

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Speaker 3: who they are now, including how they dress off the pitch.

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Speaker 3: Earling Holland has a fifty thousand dollars man bag. It's

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Speaker 3: ludicrously capacious. As someone from Succession once said, it's very large.

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Speaker 3: And I know you have a man bag.

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Speaker 4: Too, right, I do have a man bag. Yes, I do.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we have man bag experts here.

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Speaker 5: Fifty thousand dollars burken bag as well.

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Speaker 2: No it's not a burkin, but I did look at

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Speaker 2: the mini Kelly.

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Speaker 4: Continue.

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Speaker 3: My point is here is that what we see on

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Speaker 3: the world at the World Cup, and you know the

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Speaker 3: players involved, has a huge influence on the rest of

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Speaker 3: the economy, for instance, like the luxury sector. And there's

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Speaker 3: why the way Holland's man bag see ludicrously capacious, along

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Speaker 3: with some other players too.

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Speaker 4: I'll just get through at it. Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 4: Where's the raccoon? Where's the raccoon? I have a question.

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Speaker 2: You're legit d one serious soccer. Nobody's falling down at

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Speaker 2: Ducaine and withering on the ground, and then when the

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Speaker 2: ball goes on the field they moranculous to get up.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about this madness where I'm screaming

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Speaker 2: at the screen, get up, get up?

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Speaker 4: Get up? Am I wrong?

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Speaker 9: No?

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Speaker 1: You're not wrong.

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Speaker 5: And I would also like to just wint out that

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Speaker 5: I did play women's soccer and this is not something

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Speaker 5: we definitely see as much in the women's game.

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Speaker 1: This is a very male How.

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Speaker 2: Do you respond to the stupid fall down, the ball

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Speaker 2: goes by.

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Speaker 4: Oh, I'm miraculously cured.

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Speaker 5: It's a part of the game in a way that

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Speaker 5: I think is one of the reasons why it's not

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Speaker 5: as big in the US.

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Speaker 4: I agree.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, you have American football here in

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Speaker 5: hockey and all these other sports that are very American,

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Speaker 5: and we love it here, and they're very strong and.

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Speaker 4: Free time fix it.

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Speaker 3: That's in hockey. They're actually fighting.

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Speaker 7: They do.

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Speaker 2: She drops the gloves, they run. I mean she's in

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Speaker 2: the corner in the third period. She's frightening. You should

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Speaker 2: see her. Folks, the terror of Northern New York City. Well,

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Speaker 2: this is lovely, this is fine, This was great. Eric Belchunis,

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Speaker 2: thank you. Vanessa Predoma, thank you. And Michael Ball seriously

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Speaker 2: looked for Michael Balls academics on the FED all out

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Speaker 2: through the weekend, on Bloomberg and other news sources as well.

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Speaker 4: I mean, coming up here, it's going to be interesting.

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Speaker 2: You got Nora Rabini, a senior economic strategist at Hudson

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Speaker 2: Bay Capital.

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Speaker 4: We've known each other for decades.

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Speaker 2: I want to know what he thinks, Like with Ted

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Speaker 2: lu the other week, the future of social Security.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot to talk about with Noriel Rabini. It's

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Speaker 3: a different Noriel Rabini. I'm good more money.

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Speaker 4: He's sensitive. You get us tickets. That's all I care

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Speaker 4: about it.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't even know if I'll sit where I

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Speaker 2: can see Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 4: Can you get us tickets?

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg money. Stay with us with more

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Speaker 2: to come after this welcome back. It's Bloomberg money. Tom

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Speaker 2: Keene alongside scholar. If both of us were talking about

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Speaker 2: the smoke and the fire from I looked at du Luth,

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Speaker 2: Minnesota today, just unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: Have you been walking around with the mascot?

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Speaker 4: No, I don't do the mask thing. But the dogs

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Speaker 4: aren't healthy.

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Speaker 1: I mean no, they dogs don't want.

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Speaker 2: To want it at all. We'll see on that as

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Speaker 2: we go through. They stay with Bloomberg all of our

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Speaker 2: media for the continued coverage of what we're.

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Speaker 4: Seeing in the smoke, it is not smoke and mirrors.

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Speaker 2: With Nora Rabini, his senior economic strategist at Hudson Bay Capital.

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Speaker 2: That barely describes his contribution to the Clinton administration, his

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Speaker 2: years of service to New York University, and the books

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Speaker 2: that just keep on coming.

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Speaker 4: One of them. No beef with getting older.

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Speaker 2: Okay, that's fine, and we'll look at that. I want

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Speaker 2: to talk about that in a minute, Nora, Welcome to

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Speaker 2: the show. Ted Leu was on the other day, what's

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Speaker 2: the sweat on social Security? Do we really have to

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Speaker 2: risk losing a check on social security into the twenty thirties.

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Speaker 10: Well, we know that the trust fund is going to

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Speaker 10: start running out of money, and therefore whatever is going

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Speaker 10: to be president after this administration in twenty twenty eight,

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Speaker 10: he or she will have to figure out together in

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Speaker 10: about a partisan way, what to do about it. You

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Speaker 10: can how to selength the retirement age, you can raise

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Speaker 10: peril taxes, you can cut benefits, you can do a

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Speaker 10: combination of all those things. But definitely we have to

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Speaker 10: do something about it.

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Speaker 2: It just popped into my puny head. He wasn't picked

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Speaker 2: by a task force for chairman works.

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Speaker 4: What oversight that was?

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Speaker 2: Let's go to normal Rabini from I believe it's four

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Speaker 2: years ago.

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Speaker 4: No be for getting older.

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Speaker 2: In nineteen sixty there were five active workers for every

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Speaker 2: retired and disabled worker in these United States. But well

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Speaker 2: it's going to three to one in two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 2: headed towards two to one.

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Speaker 4: In four years.

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Speaker 2: Instead of moving forward, we have slipped backward out of

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Speaker 2: Fortune magazine in two twenty two.

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Speaker 4: So the clock is ticket.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we're moving a Do you get the sense

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Speaker 2: that politicians have any understanding of what's going to happen

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Speaker 2: the first Wednesday of November in twenty twenty eight when

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Speaker 2: we got to start really fixing this.

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, the politicians always kick the canda on

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Speaker 10: the road until something becomes critical. They prefer to avoid it. Then,

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Speaker 10: as we know, social security has been for a long

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Speaker 10: time the third rail of American politics. So we'll have

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Speaker 10: to deal with it like we did a few decades

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Speaker 10: ago by creating commission. At that time was run by

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Speaker 10: Alan Greenspan. This time around somebody else, and they'll come

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Speaker 10: with sensible ideas. We have to increase retirement age, we

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Speaker 10: have to increase peral taxes, or have the corporates that

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Speaker 10: winners pay for the workers, or we'll have to cut

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Speaker 10: some benefits. So any combination of those things is going

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Speaker 10: to have to happen at some point.

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Speaker 4: On the line.

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Speaker 3: Eric Welchin has just pointed out to me that Senator

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Speaker 3: Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, and Senator Bill Cassidy.

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Speaker 3: A Republican from Louisiana have proposed a plan to save

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Speaker 3: social security by borrowing up one and have trillion dollars

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Speaker 3: to invest in the stock market, which would grow over

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Speaker 3: seventy five years of pay future. And ifits does that

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Speaker 3: sound like something that could work or is that kind

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Speaker 3: of craziness?

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Speaker 10: Well, there are some ideas in the past about unquote

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Speaker 10: privatizing social security and in countries that have solving well

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Speaker 10: funds because they're running physical surpluses and current accounts, soupers

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Speaker 10: that can build up net for an assets, like Norway does,

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Speaker 10: like in the Gulf, they do to create something of

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Speaker 10: a buffer for the future. The problem us that we

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Speaker 10: run a fiscal deficit and a large current account deficits.

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Speaker 10: So if you borrow more to invest in the stock market, yeah,

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Speaker 10: you get that margin some returns because the returns on

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Speaker 10: the stock market be higher than what you pay on

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Speaker 10: that borrowing. But there's a gimmick. At the end of

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Speaker 10: the day, you have to do something else. That's not

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Speaker 10: going to solve the problem. It's one step in one direction,

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Speaker 10: but it's not gonna be enough.

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Speaker 1: Okay, not a solution.

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Speaker 3: In the meantime, Inflation is getting in the way of

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Speaker 3: everyone's best laid plans. You look at pricing increases in

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Speaker 3: elderly healthcare, for instance, home healthcare because of immigration curves,

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Speaker 3: it's outstripping, far outstripping the rise in college tuition. You

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Speaker 3: can see there, although of course the absolute costs of

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Speaker 3: each as comparing apples with oranges. Noel are genetsers and

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Speaker 3: millennials all going to work until we're ninety years old

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Speaker 3: because we need to pay for six figure college tuition

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Speaker 3: as well as twenty four to seven care for our parents.

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Speaker 10: Well, in principle, yes, the problem is going to be

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Speaker 10: the VII. Eventually we're going to have a long term

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Speaker 10: permanent tech Unemployment's going to happen only slowly. That's going

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Speaker 10: to happen the next twenty years. So even if you

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Speaker 10: increase the retirement age, the problem is going to be

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Speaker 10: a large chunk of the population is going to be

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Speaker 10: replaced by AI and robots in the next twenty twenty

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Speaker 10: five years. So increasing retirement age is not going to

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Speaker 10: be a solution. It's true that we higher potential growth,

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Speaker 10: that ratio tend to fall because it's that to GDP,

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Speaker 10: so our physical condition is not as bad as it

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Speaker 10: would be in a situation where growth is lower, But

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Speaker 10: at some point we have to do something. But eventually

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Speaker 10: we need some form of universal basic income for everybody

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Speaker 10: while they work and once they retire.

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Speaker 4: And we're already on the way to that.

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Speaker 2: One evening at Dabos, you and I said a lovely

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Speaker 2: old German bar. There was a public official down three

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Speaker 2: seats down from us who didn't participate.

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Speaker 4: But listened in.

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Speaker 2: When you framed out seven eighth nine, can you use

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Speaker 2: eight oh nine?

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Speaker 4: Or frankly, two.

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Speaker 2: Thousand and two thousand and one is an analogue for

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Speaker 2: this exuberance we have now in the stock market.

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Speaker 10: Well, let's become more optimist. Of course, there is fraudin

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Speaker 10: as there will be excesses. But I think that this

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Speaker 10: AI revolution is the most important in human history in

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Speaker 10: terms of tech innovation.

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Speaker 4: But you just told us we're going to lose all

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Speaker 4: our jobs.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, but I suppose that God goes from two to

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Speaker 10: four by the end of the decade, and that's going

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Speaker 10: to be six percent by two thousand and forty or

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Speaker 10: ten percent by two thousand and fifty, because they're going

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Speaker 10: to get to AGI. Then we've grown doubling every five

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Speaker 10: years a ten percent you can tax the winner, redistribute

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Speaker 10: everybody to everybody else, and make everybody better off.

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Speaker 4: So that's going to be a factor.

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Speaker 10: We'll have either expository distribution that is universal busy income,

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Speaker 10: or we'll have it something means some form of socialism. Essentially,

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Speaker 10: the government's going to take over some fraction of the

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Speaker 10: big tech firms, as they're already willing to do five

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Speaker 10: ten percent of it. We create a solven fund that way,

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Speaker 10: and we create the market, and we're going already in

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Speaker 10: that direction effectively.

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Speaker 3: The fact, Okay, this is a very gloomy picture that

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Speaker 3: you're painting. That brings true with your doctor Jim kind

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Speaker 3: of No, it's not gloomy.

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Speaker 10: It's optimist. With ten percent growth and machines doing all

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Speaker 10: the work, we don't need to work.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what these economic theories inside it?

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Speaker 9: Now?

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Speaker 1: You understand why things happen the way they do.

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Speaker 3: As an individual, do you manage your finances in a

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Speaker 3: way that aligns with them? Or is there some element

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Speaker 3: of irrational behavior in how you look at your own

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Speaker 3: finances recently?

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Speaker 10: Rational I've never traded in my life. I've never bought

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Speaker 10: any individual security of any sort, I invest for the

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Speaker 10: long term. I've a diversified portfolio, mostly if equities, if

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Speaker 10: everything were to go on a severe session, or move

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Speaker 10: some of it into liquid assets and so on. But

444
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 10: I think that most people that are not sophisticated investors

445
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 10: should just buy an old until they retire, rather than

446
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 10: tay trading or mimis talk or crypto or the stuff

447
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 10: that makes me lose money.

448
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 1: So you're very much a buy and old guy. You

449
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 1: don't touch it at all.

450
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 2: Absolutely twenty seconds you're in my ear here talk crypto.

451
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 4: The young one to know about crypto.

452
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 2: You and I love crypto so much. Twenty sixty Is

453
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 2: it going to thirty?

454
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 10: Most likely? Yes, most likely?

455
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 4: Yes.

456
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:08,400
Speaker 10: I mean really, listen, crypto is not a cryptocurrency. They're

457
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 10: not the means of payment. They're not a unit of account,

458
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 10: they're not the stable store of value. They're not a

459
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 10: single number. So calling them crypto currencies actually missnomer. Whatever

460
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,880
Speaker 10: they are, they're not really neither acid or currency. It's

461
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 10: mostly bibble. Upon's a game, most of them scathing.

462
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 3: Well, he's been skating on a lot of crick was

463
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 3: on the edge of Rubini there, all right, doctor Noriel Rubini,

464
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us today anything. He is,

465
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 3: of course, Hudson Bay Capital senior economic strategist.

466
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 2: Joining us now Amanda Linham. She's chief credit strategist at

467
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs. And I just want to bring up the

468
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 2: chart here for you, Amanda, because you're expert at this

469
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,359
Speaker 2: a Bloomberg. We have the total return indices that are

470
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 2: just absolutely exquisite off of all the heritage of Lehman

471
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 2: and Barclays as well. And the chart of the week

472
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 2: is the lineup chart here and it's a great moderation.

473
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,959
Speaker 2: The bond market price up forever, forever, forever, seven standard

474
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 2: deviation move and we've come back, but come on home.

475
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,400
Speaker 2: We flatlined over the last five or six years. Does

476
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,959
Speaker 2: that mean bonds are of vailue or does that mean

477
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: you're still catching up?

478
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 11: Well, first of all, thank you for having me. Good afternoon.

479
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 12: If you looked at that chart, Tom and you maybe

480
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 12: you started it at year in twenty twenty one, which

481
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 12: is just before the Fed started hiking rates and just

482
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 12: before interest rates really started their trend upward, what you

483
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,120
Speaker 12: would see is that IG bonds are roughly flat. However,

484
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 12: high yield bonds are up over twenty percent leverage loans

485
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 12: floating rate are up over thirty percent over that same timeframe.

486
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 12: So I think this speaks to the point that we've

487
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 12: been emphasizing for a bit, and very relevant for your

488
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 12: audience as well, is that there's an opportunity cost to

489
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 12: being too defensive in this market.

490
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 11: Now.

491
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 12: To answer your question on do bonds fit in a portfolio, absolutely,

492
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 12: but they just can't be the only part. And that

493
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,639
Speaker 12: chart you showed telled a great story in terms of

494
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 12: what the rise in interest rates has done to pressure

495
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 12: bond total returns. But at the same time, equities have

496
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 12: enjoyed a pretty meaningful upswing.

497
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 11: And so that's the point. On devers, I've never.

498
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 2: Asked this question, and how long have they been doing

499
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,919
Speaker 2: this sex seven or eight years. I've never asked this question.

500
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: How much of our four to one k's in America

501
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 2: are in boring, sleepy, underperforming bonds versus the high yield

502
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 2: magic you just talked about.

503
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 12: I mean, our investors that are managing a lot of

504
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,439
Speaker 12: these four to one k's on behalf of retirees and

505
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 12: workers typically will employ pretty diversified portfolios. And then, as

506
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,640
Speaker 12: you know, there are target date funds that become less

507
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 12: risky as you get closer to retirement. In general, it's

508
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 12: a pretty good way to be invested. I think there's

509
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 12: a difference between saving and investing in this market, and

510
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 12: I think one of the big lessons is that being

511
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 12: invested over the long term is really what is critical.

512
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 12: It's hard to time over the arc of a career

513
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 12: for anyone rate backdrop or equity market backdrop, So staying

514
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 12: invested and in a diversified portfolio is key.

515
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 3: Saving and investing. I like that when my son was born,

516
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 3: my mother in law gave him a bond. Today, when

517
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 3: kids are born, they have access to a Trump account.

518
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 3: Their grandparents can contribute to that. These Trump accounts only

519
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 3: invest in stock funds or ets. That's a pretty strong

520
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 3: signal about the role of bonds and building a portfolio

521
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: of personal's a person's financial future, doesn't it well.

522
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 12: I think it's one part of an overall plan. But

523
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 12: from my perspective, when we think about the role of

524
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 12: a portfolio and where fixed kicks in, it's really to

525
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 12: provide income later in life that's more regular as opposed

526
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 12: to waiting for an equity dividend. And then importantly, it's

527
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 12: to offset periods of equity market.

528
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:31,479
Speaker 11: Weakness like we see today.

529
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 12: And so while we've had a pretty meaningful uptrend in

530
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 12: equities over the past few years, we've known from cycles

531
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 12: that those don't go on in perpetuity, and so ideally

532
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 12: what you would want to have is some fixed rate

533
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 12: exposure across the curve, some floating rate exposure. Actually, we've

534
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 12: been our portfolio strategy colleagues have been emphasizing.

535
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 11: The role of real assets.

536
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 12: And kind of inflation protection and then typical equities and

537
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 12: it all.

538
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,360
Speaker 4: Fixed together, fixed incomes, recommending goals.

539
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 11: Our portfolio strategists.

540
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 12: So our portfolio strategists who take a multisector have basically

541
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 12: made the point that, as you alluded to, the sixty

542
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 12: to forty portfolio isn't as straightforward as it was in

543
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 12: the years past, and so given some of the shifts

544
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 12: in the market, that we actually do have to incorporate

545
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 12: things like.

546
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: Real essets in the stock market.

547
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 3: Individual investors are just as influential now as institutional investors.

548
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: That's really changed over the last few years.

549
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 3: I don't know who the dumb money is anymore versus

550
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 3: the smart money.

551
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: That line is blurred.

552
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 3: Does that kind of blurring exist in the fixed income

553
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: and credit world or will this asset class always be

554
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 3: the domain of institutions and professionals.

555
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 12: We have a wide range of investors in our market.

556
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 12: I think the really interesting bifurcation that I've seen in

557
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 12: corporate credit over the past couple of years, but definitely recently,

558
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 12: has been this bifurcation between investors who are buying bonds

559
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 12: for yield versus investors who are buying bonds for spread.

560
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 11: And total return.

561
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 12: And that is the key, and what we have emphasized

562
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 12: is if you are allocating to credit right now, you

563
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 12: should be buying for income and yield, not because there's

564
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 12: material scope for a total return boost from tighter spreads

565
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 12: because they're already height, or from lower rates because our

566
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 12: rate strategists are expecting rates to be worded.

567
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 2: Want bond exposure to a data center in Ohio. Here

568
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 2: is Amanda Lineum, She's been burning it up. Zero heads

569
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: you a thirty page article and lead with.

570
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 4: Amanda Lineum of Goldman Sachs here it is a mix

571
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 4: of markets will be required.

572
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 2: Our equity research colleagues expect the five hyper scalers to

573
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 2: invest a combined zillion trillion in AI capex to now

574
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: four years out. It would push hyper scalers rights well

575
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: above the current market conventions in our wealth management. Are

576
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 2: we going to be overwhelmed by this tech capex juggernaut.

577
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 12: This is the main debate in the corporate credit market

578
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 12: right now. And just for your listeners, that number is

579
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 12: five point eight trillion that are equity conser is not

580
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 12: a zillion, it's five point eight trillion, And I think

581
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 12: what a lot of investors do is they will look

582
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 12: at the hyperscaler's balance sheets and expect that that will

583
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 12: largely be financed with debt, and that a lot of

584
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 12: that will come through the traditional IT corporate credit market.

585
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 12: The point that we've made is that the bond market

586
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 12: has issue where concentration constraints to a certain degree, and

587
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 12: so the key takeaway there is that we expect a

588
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,719
Speaker 12: portion of that five point eight trillion to be funded

589
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 12: with debt, a portion of which will come through the

590
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 12: traditional bond markets. But we also see scope for the

591
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 12: private infrastructure market to play a role. We see scope

592
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 12: for these new project finance jvs to do some of

593
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,439
Speaker 12: the heavy lifting. Cash flow from operations from the hyperscalers

594
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 12: will contribute. We're also expecting equity issue, and some of.

595
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 11: The rating agaties have said that afraid.

596
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:27,880
Speaker 1: I don't like it, check them.

597
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 12: I am not concerned about in access to capital constraint.

598
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 12: I just think as we progress through what is a

599
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 12: multi year investment cycle, that there will be more nuanced

600
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 12: conversations around which market I should be accessing, and at

601
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 12: one price that's largely a twenty twenty seven to twenty

602
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 12: twenty eight event.

603
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 3: We think, I want to take a step back here

604
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 3: because you think about the different generations and gen Z

605
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 3: right now is graduating from college, they're joining the workforce,

606
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 3: they're building up savings. They know about memestocks, they know

607
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: about crypto, they know about prediction markets. These are all

608
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 3: go big or go home kinds of bets. Is there

609
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 3: anything within the fixed income space that response to that impulse?

610
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: Well?

611
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 12: More subject to risk sentiment like other markets are in

612
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 12: terms of when there's a real risk off tone, we

613
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 12: feel it in our market, I would say we tend

614
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 12: to be a bit more defensive. We actually put a

615
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 12: piece out on this earlier this week, my colleague Spencer did,

616
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 12: which really emphasized that the credit equity beta has diverged

617
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 12: in twenty twenty six in particular, meaning credit hasn't been

618
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 12: participating as much on the upside, but it's also been

619
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 12: more defensive on risk off tones on the downside. And

620
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 12: I think going back to over the arc of a

621
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 12: career and investment cycle, just being invested as the keeper.

622
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 2: I love that we're doing credit beta, but you're at

623
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 2: this weekend it's a family event or you know, friends

624
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 2: in Romans and countrymen, and somebody says, should I buy

625
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 2: a five year CD or a three year CD? America

626
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 2: is still stuck in that question of personal finance versus

627
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: a lot of if they.

628
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: Had any money to put in a CD to begin with.

629
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 4: Well, okay, but the arch question is on duration. How

630
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 4: short should I be right now?

631
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 12: So we like being more towards the front, an intermediate

632
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 12: part of the curve. At the longer end of the curve,

633
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 12: so thirty year bonds, for example, it tends to be

634
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 12: a bit more whippy. If your question is is do

635
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 12: we expect the FED to be kind of cutting or

636
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 12: hiking or holding? Pat From here, our economists are expecting

637
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 12: the FED to essentially be on hold through twenty twenty six.

638
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 12: I would say the Middle East conflict has been flagged

639
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 12: as an upside risk in terms of inflation, which does

640
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 12: provide some risk to that view, but in general we're

641
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 12: expecting rates to remain on hold. So staying invested amid

642
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 12: in elevated rate environment you are actually earning some coupon

643
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 12: from there as well.

644
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 3: All right, so staying invested is the message here from

645
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 3: Milanda Amandeline of Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategy.

646
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us, all right.

647
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 3: Coming up on Bloomberg Money, adult happy meals they're a

648
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: thing and they're pulling in customers across tax brackets. More

649
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 3: restaurants are trying to lured diners looking for deals. Sometimes

650
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 3: the hours are a little bit earlier, you know, verging

651
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 3: on early bird special.

652
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: Plus we're bullish on books. Tom and I share what

653
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: we're reading. How did you narrow it down classic?

654
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 2: I narrowed it down to the classic. Amanda's rerouted three times.

655
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: That's all. Coming up on Bloomberg Money. Thanks time, We'll

656
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: hip you've your recommenition.

657
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 4: Jesse Livermore.

658
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Money.

659
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 3: It's your new destination for personal finance. It's a cross

660
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 3: platform effort that extends beyond your television, including our new

661
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 3: digital hub at bloomberg dot Com, Slash Money and Tom.

662
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 3: That reminds me of a story that I saw this week.

663
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 3: When was the last time that you enjoyed a happy meal?

664
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 4: A happy meal that was a few years ago, to

665
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 4: say the least, we just went for the toys.

666
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: You just went for the toys.

667
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: Well, there's you know, some adult happy meals now being

668
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 3: offered by restaurants which give you an entree aside and

669
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 3: adult beverage of your toys for a flat price. And

670
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 3: the reason, of course, is inflation. Bloomberg's Sarah Foster writes

671
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 3: bundle deals that often include an entree aside and a

672
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: drink are up fifteen percent from a year earlier across

673
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 3: all restaurants segments, and find dining establishments like the ones

674
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 3: you attend. They're the fastest growing entrede category on restaurant menus,

675
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: and Sara joins us. Now, so what's an example of

676
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 3: a restaurant that Tom might deign to go do?

677
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: Not just a McDonald's.

678
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 9: Well, I was doing a lot of traveling around the

679
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 9: city to kind of hunt down these adult happy words.

680
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 11: Sure that I parked at this.

681
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 9: I will probably be holding off on the red meat

682
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 9: for a while. But and sun Steake Easy in Greenwich Village.

683
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 9: That was this place that I parked at. You know,

684
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 9: what really stood out to me is that these are

685
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 9: not your fine, you know.

686
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 11: Value menu eaters.

687
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 9: They are going for these fine dining restaurants. A lot

688
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 9: of them work in finance, a lot of them work

689
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 9: in tech, and they are really drawn to these predictable pricing.

690
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 11: You know you mentioned the toy thing, Tom.

691
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 9: It's what's interesting I think is the adult version of

692
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 9: this happy meal always replaces the toy with a cocktail.

693
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 11: I think that's in a way of a different what

694
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 11: makes them happy.

695
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 9: But a lot of them really do say you know,

696
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 9: they would be interested in a toy too, if that

697
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 9: adult one would provide it.

698
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: And these pictures are phenomenal.

699
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 3: I think part of this too is when you talk

700
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 3: to the restaurant tours is they made sure that they

701
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 3: wanted it to be really visually appealing so that people

702
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 3: can post it to their social media.

703
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 9: What was really fascinating is that a lot of these

704
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 9: adult happy meals looked luxurious. I was talking with this

705
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 9: one restaurant in DC. They call it the Lobby Meal.

706
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,959
Speaker 9: Included in that was a glass of champagne and it

707
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 9: was branded with that blow clicko, you know, champagne branding

708
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 9: that was really attracting the people's facing this.

709
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: And I'll do a shout out to Michael's, which is

710
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 2: just iconic and also vot or right across the street

711
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: from our effort here is it seems to me everybody

712
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: simplifying the menus, it just seems to be easier now

713
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 2: to order than twelve pages of choices from years ago.

714
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, it makes things easier for the restaurant themselves because

715
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: they only offer one or two things, right, there's not

716
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: a whole lot of things you have to worry about

717
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 3: with your supply chain and your suppliers.

718
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 9: It's true, it's easier to offer these curated menus because

719
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 9: a lot of the diners who I spoke with, they

720
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 9: say that they face.

721
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 11: Decision fatigue when they go out exactly.

722
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 9: You know, you see that with line culture, TikTok and

723
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 9: social media is just proliferating all of these new restaurants

724
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 9: to try and sometimes people, you know, on a busy day,

725
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 9: they just want to have the meal.

726
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 11: Laid out for them.

727
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 3: And some of these deals are hidden too, right, it's

728
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 3: not totally advertised. You kind of have to be in

729
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 3: the know.

730
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 9: It's this layer of prestige and exclusivity. It's like a

731
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 9: club that if I spoke with one restaurant that was

732
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 9: selling so many adult happy meals that they had to

733
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 9: kind of pull it away, and now they still sell

734
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 9: it to people who ask for it.

735
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 4: Stay with Sarah.

736
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:31,479
Speaker 2: This is the acid test. I want to know if

737
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: you've read my book. We've got two books here on trading.

738
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: We had a lot of fun with this. We're doing

739
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 2: different things we did elon Musk, like bow.

740
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 4: Ties a mask. Come on, Scar tell me when the

741
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 4: bow ties out of line.

742
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: It's trying.

743
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 2: Now. We got the trading game here. This is Scarfu's book,

744
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 2: Scar tell Us about.

745
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 4: The trading game.

746
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: Okay.

747
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 3: It's by Gary Stevenson, who is a trader on the

748
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: FX and rates to us at City in London just

749
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 3: before and during the financial crisis. He grew up in

750
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 3: the wrong part of London but went to LSE because

751
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,239
Speaker 3: he was a math whiz. He made a ton of

752
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: money for City and himself a four hundred thousand pounds

753
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: bonus in his first year as a trader when he

754
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 3: was twenty three and he had a thesis driving all

755
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 3: his trades, which is that interest rates would stay low

756
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 3: and inequality would worsen. What's interesting to me is that

757
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 3: later on in the book gets into this he had

758
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 3: to come to Jesus moment where he quit the industry,

759
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 3: and now he has a YouTube channel teaching people about

760
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 3: real world economics.

761
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 4: This is great.

762
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: The iconic math exam at the London School of Economics.

763
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 2: That's what mister Jagger who went on to sing.

764
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: Oh the one Jager.

765
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 2: Mister Jagger went on after he bombed out of the

766
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: math exam at LS years ago.

767
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 4: It's a rigorous test.

768
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm making him sound preachy here, but he's

769
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 3: really not. Because the book is fun, with a lot

770
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 3: of descriptions of the characters on trading floors.

771
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 2: My book is definitive. You read it every five years.

772
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 2: If you're in the game, this is a book. If Sarah,

773
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 2: if you haven't read this book, you're in my time

774
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 2: out chair. Reminiscence of a Stock Operator. His book is

775
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 2: one hundred and three years old and there is a

776
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 2: lesson about every four pages.

777
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 4: There's a point in here.

778
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 2: With Jesse Livermore, it's so stressful in New York. In Boston,

779
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 2: he goes to Florida for vacation, and he learns more

780
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: about trading in Florida from the cotton traders than he

781
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 2: does in New York or Boston. This is a classic,

782
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: classic book. It's criminal that it's not part of a

783
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 2: job assigned.

784
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: What was the last one we read it?

785
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 4: I read it about three or four years ago, and

786
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 4: I'm due to read it again about right now.

787
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: I think i'll do that. The annotated version is worth

788
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 2: its weight in gold. It's a bigger almost like coffee table.

789
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's hardcover too, hardcover.

790
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, we only do a hardcover. I'm blueberg.

791
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 2: Oh well, I'm a terrible snuff Sarah. Have you read

792
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 2: Jesse Livermore?

793
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 11: I haven't, but I need.

794
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 4: There're yours, Simon.

795
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 2: I'm going to tell Nikki Waller, Sarah's deep into Jesse Livermore.

796
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: All Right, it's Friday, so we need to look ahead

797
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 3: to the weekend and next week. Just get a sense

798
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 3: of how you're going to spend your money. And I'm

799
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 3: going to focus in on earnings because it's going to

800
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 3: be a pretty light week for data. There's not a

801
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 3: whole lot going on on that front. And of course

802
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 3: FED officials are in a blackout period before their meeting.

803
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: So let's focus on earnings because on Tuesday week at

804
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 3: General Motors and tom you know that all the big

805
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 3: car makes have seemingly given up on hybrids or electric vehicles.

806
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 3: They've all put their eggs in the gas guzzling suv basket.

807
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 4: Well they have.

808
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: And you know, I look at alphabet moving on and

809
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 2: then the following week into technology, and it's as big

810
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 2: a deal as a bank store.

811
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: Oh for sure.

812
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 3: You know, Alphabets the first of the hyperscalers to report earnings,

813
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 3: and people aren't even calling it earning season anymore. They're

814
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 3: calling it capex season because it's all about what they

815
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 3: say when it comes to capital expenditures, and it's really

816
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 3: going to be a show me moment to me.

817
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: The big thing here, folks, to get a little nerd

818
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: on you, is the nominal GDP. Right now, the animal

819
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 2: spirit of the country is basically, you know, like a

820
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,479
Speaker 2: third world country like China or whatever.

821
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 4: Percent five point six percent is.

822
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: Well and that's really an important What we do on

823
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,720
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Money as well, is when there's really important breaking news,

824
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 2: we're going to stay with that.

825
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 4: Scarlett's going to queue it up right now. This on Apple.

826
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: This is on Apple.

827
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 3: Apple is an early settlement talks with the US Department

828
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 3: of Justice over an antitrust suit from twenty twenty four

829
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 3: that alleges the iPhone maker violated antitrust laws. According to

830
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 3: Bloomberg reporting by Mark German and his colleagues, the discussions

831
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: are active, there are no guarantees that the two size

832
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 3: will reach an agreement, and no trial date has been

833
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 3: set in the case. Apple has made multiple offers this

834
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 3: year to the DOJ to bring the case to a close.

835
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 3: This is according to people familiar with the matter, but

836
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 3: the discussions are private that discussions can end without an

837
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 3: agreement being reached.

838
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: The initial tick up here is a nice move up

839
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 2: back to three thirty two. Again, I said earlier in

840
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: the show, Devin, I think we've got that headline. Apple

841
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 2: at three point forty one ishes a five trillion dollar company.

842
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 2: And what's important here and pulls it back into Bloomberg money,

843
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 2: is basically who doesn't own Apple? Yes, Because within a

844
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: four oh one k portfolio, whatever the mix is, it

845
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 2: can be something tech dominated where it's four or five, six,

846
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 2: eight percent or maybe less, or just individual stack ownership.

847
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 4: It's part of America.

848
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 1: It's kind of like SpaceX.

849
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:57,760
Speaker 3: Even if you didn't want it, you have it because

850
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 3: of exposure to, for instance, the now like one hundred.

851
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 3: So the DJ's main allegations here are basically about Apple

852
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 3: blocking super apps programs that include mini apps within them,

853
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 3: like we chat in China.

854
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: And you know, Apple with.

855
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 3: This walled garden business model is something that a lot

856
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 3: of people have not necessarily complained about, but brought up

857
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 3: as something that works against. It's how it's viewed as

858
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 3: a competitive company.

859
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: It's been a permanent fixture of people going after Apple

860
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 2: for as you say, nicely, the world garden. What I

861
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 2: would suggest if you talk to the cell side of

862
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,280
Speaker 2: any persuasion, the suber bowls, I think of Gene Munster

863
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,280
Speaker 2: and Dan Eyes and others much more cautious. This app

864
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: section of the business, the service section, just continually grows.

865
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: Well, they have to have.

866
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 3: It has to because the hardware is increasingly a commodity

867
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 3: and companies like Apple face increased costs for memory chow.

868
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 2: Because everyone in my family is doing Apple movies every night.

869
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 2: I look at my visa Apple this, Apple, this, Apple that,

870
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: and the answer is that subset of Apple is so

871
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: so important away from the Frenzy over iPhones.

872
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 3: No, that's a really good point. By the way, you

873
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 3: mentioned movies on Apple.

874
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it can you a touch here in Odyssey?

875
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 3: Is it or the Odyssey was released today so you

876
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 3: can go see it. It's the first movie I believe

877
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: that was completely made and designed to be made on

878
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 3: the IMAX with iMX cameras, So this is a big one.

879
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 3: Matt Damon plays the main character and Hathaway's part of it.

880
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 3: Our producer said. The reviews from the UK were it

881
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 3: could have been better, But I'm excited about this.

882
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 2: I've heard very mixed reviews. I mean it's not like Milana.

883
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 2: I mean, you're the celebrity Loadstone. Milana tanked right.

884
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 3: The live action movies like, I don't know that they

885
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 3: really catch on. I'm not sure who wants the live

886
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: action movies aside from the studios because it allows them

887
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 3: to renew the asset.

888
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 2: But if we can summarize with Warner Brothers, with all

889
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 2: the merger, Frenzy had a bang up year. It's a

890
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 2: good year. Is it a good summer for Hollywood?

891
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 1: And I think it's a good year for Hollywood.

892
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 3: Yes, it's no longer resting on the laurels of two

893
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 3: movies like Barbie or Oppenheimer.

894
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: It's a lot more than that.

895
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 2: The time we've got here, I think this is really

896
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 2: important as we as we've really enjoyed launching the show

897
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: and giving you.

898
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: A perspective here.

899
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 2: For me, the major major thing here is all the

900
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 2: marketing of wealth management, all the concepts and mergers, and

901
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 2: we're trying to slice through that, try to figure out, okay,

902
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 2: what's really going on, I think with a mandoline, and

903
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 2: we did a nice job of that today to say, okay,

904
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 2: what do you do with bonds? And our message was

905
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 2: all bonds aren't the same.

906
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 3: Right, And of course people are scarred from what happened

907
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two when bonds were supposed to be

908
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 3: the ballast for your portfolio. The stock market tanked and

909
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: bonds didn't do it right.

910
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: Negative returns.

911
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 2: Give me an Apple banner here. I just think it's

912
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 2: so important. Apple from two hundred and eighty, two hundred

913
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 2: and eighty the end of June, and it's been not

914
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 2: a moonshot that over says it, but nicely up here

915
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 2: it's three thirty one, just below the recent record high.

916
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 2: And to get onto three forty one five trillion dollar

917
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 2: company is remember I mean you don't remember this, you know,

918
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 2: Steve Jobs, John Scully, We're.

919
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 4: All going to die lease as a failure. It's a

920
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 4: long way from that.

921
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: It's a long way from that.

922
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 3: And of course this is a company that has been

923
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:09,959
Speaker 3: kind of behind the curve when it comes to AI

924
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 3: adoption too. But maybe that's a little bit of it

925
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 3: saving grace right now as we see some pressure on

926
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 3: ship makers and the whole question of the AI trade.

927
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 2: Of course, all I know is Mark German has the

928
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 2: cool orange iPhone.

929
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,439
Speaker 1: Does he I do? Of course he does. He's ahead

930
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: of uner one.

931
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 4: Thank you so much. It's Bloomberg Money. This is Bloomberg.

932
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Money podcast, bringing you a smart

933
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,720
Speaker 2: look at the forces shaping your financial life.

934
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 4: I'm Tom Keen with Scarlet Food.

935
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV every

936
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 2: Friday at noon Wall Street Time. Subscribe to the podcast

937
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen, and as always on.

938
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Terminal and The Bloomberg Business, Apple

939
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 7: Damper