Speaker 1: Gaza.
Speaker 2: Peace talks underway in the Middle East between Israel and
Speaker 2: international mediators, Axios reporting some progress was made on the
Speaker 2: first day of discussion, citing US officials. This coming as
Speaker 2: Israel braces for a possible attack from Iran. Joining US
Speaker 2: now is Ambassador John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor
Speaker 2: and former Ambassador to the UN. Ambassador Bolton, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for being with us. I want to start
Speaker 2: with what you think of the recent talks underway and
Speaker 2: why you think Iran has not retaliated yet.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 4: With respect to the talks, the administration saying making progress.
Speaker 4: You know, they've been saying making progress on these talks
Speaker 4: for about four or five months now and never seem
Speaker 4: to get to the finish line. I think there's still
Speaker 4: enormous gaps between the Israeli position and the Hamas position.
Speaker 4: I'm not saying a miracle couldn't happen. It happens in
Speaker 4: the Middle East from time to time, but I wouldn't
Speaker 4: look forward.
Speaker 3: I do think.
Speaker 4: Iran has hesitated to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Hania,
Speaker 4: the Hamas leader in Tehran. They need to strike back.
Speaker 4: I think very strongly they've been humiliated by what Israel
Speaker 4: did killing this terrorist leader in their capital in a
Speaker 4: secure compound with a bomb planted two months before. It
Speaker 4: shows nobody in Iran is safe from Israel, including the
Speaker 4: Supreme Leader. On the other hand, the Iranian leaders are
Speaker 4: also intimidated by bb Netan, Yahoo, and israel I think
Speaker 4: this time they are worried that the US will not
Speaker 4: be able to pressure Israel into a limited response as
Speaker 4: Israel did after the three hundred and twenty drone and
Speaker 4: missile assault on Israel from Iran's territory some months ago. Really,
Speaker 4: Iran is more intimidated by Israel than it is by
Speaker 4: the Biden administration. So they've got a difficult decision how
Speaker 4: strong a response to make to restore their own very
Speaker 4: damaged credibility versus their fear of what Israel would then
Speaker 4: do to them.
Speaker 1: Well, in April, when those three hundred missiles were flying over,
Speaker 1: it was because of the US defense that Israel's able
Speaker 1: to fend them off, Ambassador, Given your level of intel
Speaker 1: regarding Iran, how can they retaliate but also try to
Speaker 1: not strike this cycle of endless retaliations back and forth.
Speaker 4: Well, let's come back to the April attack. Wall Street
Speaker 4: Journal and CBS reported that of the one hundred and
Speaker 4: twenty ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel, sixty never
Speaker 4: made it within range to be shot down. They either
Speaker 4: blew up on the launch pad or crashed before they
Speaker 4: got close enough, which speaks to the quality of Iran's
Speaker 4: ballistic missile force. But if there had been one hundred
Speaker 4: and twenty rather than sixty ballistic missiles in the skies
Speaker 4: over Israel, I don't think it would have been such
Speaker 4: a good performance. The cycle that's at work here is
Speaker 4: caused by Iran. Look, this is not a war between
Speaker 4: Palestinians or Gozans and Israel. This is a war by
Speaker 4: Iran against Israel, what they themselves call the ring of
Speaker 4: Fire strategy. And as long as the current regime in
Speaker 4: Tehran is in power, seeking nuclear weapons, arming, equipping, training, financing,
Speaker 4: giving intelligence to multiple terrorist groups in the region, threatening
Speaker 4: not only Israel but the golf Arab states too, there's
Speaker 4: going to be conflict. And what's driving Israel and the
Speaker 4: golf Arabs closer together is they all see Iran as
Speaker 4: the main strategic threat, and they think the United States
Speaker 4: is feckless.
Speaker 1: As these sees fire talks continue. Do you agree with
Speaker 1: the idea that Iran could potentially use those if they
Speaker 1: were to Incadeal use that as an off ramp to
Speaker 1: not retaliate.
Speaker 4: Well, they may want to use it as an off ramp,
Speaker 4: but I think it would be a big blow to
Speaker 4: Iran's prestige. You know, they're not exactly stepping up here
Speaker 4: to take responsibility for what happened to Hamas after the
Speaker 4: October seven attack, and they've also not been able yet
Speaker 4: to persuade Hezbalalah to use its unbelievably large arsenal of
Speaker 4: missiles against Israel. So as I say, I think it's
Speaker 4: the fear of further Israeli retaliation that has the Iranians intimidated.
Speaker 5: With that retaliation coming from Israel if Ron does do
Speaker 5: some sort of large attack. Ambassador Bolton, what is the
Speaker 5: ability of the US and its allies to reign in
Speaker 5: Netanyahu's response?
Speaker 4: Well, I'm sure that the Biden administration will want to
Speaker 4: rein them in. They've been afraid of this issue and
Speaker 4: the war in Ukraine dominating the news in the United
Speaker 4: States because it shows a world in chaos due to
Speaker 4: three and a half years of American weakness. Really, what
Speaker 4: they would like to see is this go away until
Speaker 4: after election day, even though Biden's no longer running himself.
Speaker 4: You know, Frankly, I think the lesson to be learned
Speaker 4: is that the prospect of a really forceful Israeli response
Speaker 4: if Israel comes back at them, shows that a strong
Speaker 4: posture toward these rogue states is the way to go.
Speaker 4: And Iran has a lot to fear from Israel. It
Speaker 4: should have a lot to fear from the United States,
Speaker 4: but at the moment it doesn't.
Speaker 5: And Ambassador a lot of times when we're talking about
Speaker 5: this retaliation, even if Iran would like to do that
Speaker 5: without provoking a response, the question always comes into the fore,
Speaker 5: what is the likelihood that mistakes are made, mistakes are
Speaker 5: made that escalate things further, and that there's been this
Speaker 5: conversation that it won't just be around this time, but
Speaker 5: Hesbelah as well, are the aws for mistakes higher by
Speaker 5: involving proxy forces in the retaliation to the retaliation to
Speaker 5: the retaliation.
Speaker 4: Well, look, I think you have to look at what
Speaker 4: the strategic picture is. There is a regional war in
Speaker 4: the Middle East now of Iran against Israel on five fronts.
Speaker 4: Hezbalah from Lebanon Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the hoodies
Speaker 4: that have closed the Suez Canal red Sea passage, one
Speaker 4: of the most important commercial shipping channels in the world,
Speaker 4: closed effectively since October. The Shia militia in Iraq and
Speaker 4: Syria that have been attacking American positions and Iran itself,
Speaker 4: and the question is how do they dial up one
Speaker 4: or the other. Israel does fear Hesbelah's arsenal, which in
Speaker 4: public estimates this is an extraordinary number. But public estimates
Speaker 4: are that Hezbola has between one hundred and twenty and
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty thousand missiles, which would obviously be
Speaker 4: enough to overwhelm Israel's air defenses, and leads to the question,
Speaker 4: if they really think it's about to happen, might not
Speaker 4: Israel strike first.
Speaker 3: It's complicated. It's not mistakes.
Speaker 4: It's the fact that the leadership in Tehran is determined
Speaker 4: to destroy the Little Satan.
Speaker 3: That's what's at work here.
Speaker 1: Ambassador Bolton. Yesterday we heard from Foreign President Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: who you worked for it. I'm not looking to be
Speaker 1: bad to Iran. We're going to be friendly, I hope
Speaker 1: with Iran. Maybe, but maybe not. But we're going to
Speaker 1: be friendly. I hope we're going to be friendly. Do
Speaker 1: you know what Trump two point zero's policy towards Iran
Speaker 1: potentially will look like.
Speaker 3: Look, he has no idea what it will look like.
Speaker 4: People who look at what happened in the first term
Speaker 4: and believe that it'll be the same in the second term,
Speaker 4: I think are are mistaken.
Speaker 3: It's always possible.
Speaker 4: But remember Trump almost met with Iran's then foreign minister
Speaker 4: job At Zarief at the ba ritz G seventh Summit
Speaker 4: in August of twenty nineteen. Emmanuel mccron, the President of France,
Speaker 4: had Zarif in a villa in bea Ritz almost persuaded
Speaker 4: Trump to do it. The attraction to Donald Trump of
Speaker 4: making a deal with anybody is hard to quantify. It
Speaker 4: really goes off the charts, and it could be the
Speaker 4: same way in a second term. That's why I think
Speaker 4: there's a certain amount of pressure on the Israelis if
Speaker 4: they're going to do something, to do it now rather
Speaker 4: than to wait for the uncertainty of the American election.
Speaker 2: Ambassador John Bolton, thank you so much for taking the
Speaker 2: time