WEBVTT - Wall Streeters Hunkering Down for More WFH 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:14.840 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. If you 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.280 can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:20.480 dot com. If you can also listen to our radio 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:23.400 show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:26.320 sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:28.800 Global News. There's so much going on when it comes 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:33.400 to a vaccine. Um keep in mind global coronavirus cases 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.120 passing seventy three million, deaths are passing one point sixty 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.479 two million. For more on what he is seeing as 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:41.239 Dr Stephen Coryn, He's president and CEO of New York 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.960 Presbyterian Hospital, who The New York Times called in the 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.560 spring the CEO at the center of New York's coronavirus crisis. 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.120 He um I should point out the first confirmed case 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:52.000 in the New York area was in one of New 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:55.880 York Presbyterians hospitals in southern Westchester. Dr corn joining us 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.240 on the phone in New York City. Dr Corin, thank 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:01.360 you so nice to have you here with Tim and myself. 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:03.280 How are you and what are you seeing when it 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:06.600 comes to COVID cases right now? Well, thanks Carol and 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:10.319 Tin for having me on. We're seeing a significant increase 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:14.800 in COVID cases. Worried about of what our peak was 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.840 uh in UH in the April time frame, and we 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:23.680 expected quickly to go to the thirty five range by 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.240 Christmas time, if not a little bit after. So we're 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:32.280 seeing a significant uptick. The good news is that people 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.160 are less sick with the virus as we see it. 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:39.200 During April, we had a mortality rate in the hospital 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:44.640 of about extraordinary. Now it's down to about five, which 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:48.800 is still horrific, especially if it's your loved one, but 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:52.400 but much less than April. So I would say we've 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:55.920 got a rough four to six weeks ahead of us UH. 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:59.520 But UM, I think that we'll get through it a 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:03.000 specially as we start vaccinating people quick follow. UM. Do 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:05.160 you anticipate that we're going to get back to those 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:09.919 levels in terms of hospitalizations UM and cases um where 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.000 we are there, but in terms of hospitalizations that we 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:15.400 saw back in the spring, we hope not. Um. You know, 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:20.400 we're clearly mindful of that. Our modeling would show that 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:23.600 we would peek in the in the middle of January 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:28.280 unless we have a really terrible Christmas season in terms 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.600 of people traveling and avoiding, social distancing and masking. We 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:34.400 still haven't seen the full peak of of what happened 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.480 and Thanksgiving, so that that really is a variable that 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:43.320 that that relates to this directly. So uh, certainly no 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:45.360 one wants to go back to where the city was 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:49.520 in April, and we certainly don't. Uh. And so again, 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:54.880 until we get mass vaccination, masking, social distancing, washing your hands, 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:58.160 all the things you keep hearing about become really critical 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.800 and I empathize with are elected officials in terms of 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:03.880 how much of a lockdown do you need to have 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:06.160 versus not. I think a lot of it depends on 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:11.120 how much virus is circulating. Dr Corwin, Why is the 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:13.920 mortality rate gone down so much? Is it because of 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.280 what we've learned, what you've learned since March since April? 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:20.120 Is it because the hospital is not strained in the 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:24.720 same way as it because of therapeutics? Um? I think 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:28.240 first the answer to your question is I really don't know, 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:30.919 to be honest with you, I do think that we 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:32.840 certainly know how to take care of the patients better. 0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:38.720 Um ramdzevie steroids. They may not be game changers, but 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:42.280 but we know how to use these drugs. UM with 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:45.640 the masking and social distancing, are people getting less of 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:48.960 a viral load when they get sick. We've certainly seen 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.680 a shift to a younger demographic who tends to be 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:55.720 less sick with the virus um And to your point, 0:03:56.600 --> 0:04:00.440 any system over that gets overwhelmed, it becomes more difficult 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:03.680 to save lives. So the ability to not get the 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.880 hospital overwhelmed, I think plays into it as well. So 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.800 all of the above, but it's gonna take us a 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:15.000 while to swart through this virus becoming less virulent. We 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:18.159 don't see that, but that's that's gonna take time for 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:20.040 us to figure out. One thing that you just said 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:22.520 really struck me. People wearing masks that you get less 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.040 of a viral load. I haven't heard that before. What 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:29.719 does that mean? Well, remember, uh, you know, uh, masks 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:34.120 aren't totally effective, but it helps to it helps to 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.800 filter out particles, and so we use the N ninety 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:41.320 five masks when we're caring for patients. UH, and that 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:46.280 clearly prevents UH inhalation of the virus particles. So wearing 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:50.800 a surgical mask not only protects the person that you 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:53.680 would be breathing on, but also helps to protect you. 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:56.280 And if you get less of a viral load, you 0:04:56.320 --> 0:04:59.200 may have a milder, milder infection that if somebody gave 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:01.279 you a full viru a load, which is clearly what 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:04.000 we saw in the beginning of the pandemic. Right, It's 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:06.279 so simple, but it doesn't make a difference. Hey, what 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:09.200 do you make Dr Corrin? A new mutation of COVID 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:11.520 nineteen turned up and I guess more than a thousand 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:14.240 infected patients in the UK and was being blamed for 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:17.240 more rapid spread of the contagion. Does that make you 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:20.560 a little nervous? It does? I mean I think that 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:24.000 this We know that the virus has many, many mutations. 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.920 I mean this is not the first one. Uh. When 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:29.839 people went on holiday this summer, they came back with 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:33.280 a variation from Spain which appeared to be more virulent 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:37.520 and caused wider spread. So this is not surprising. Virus is, 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:41.839 like anything else, mutate over time. The fortunate aspect for 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.839 US VISA via vaccine is the spike protein is the 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:50.359 key in terms of inducing immunogenicity, and so knowing the 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:54.920 spike protein um and and developing the m RNA towards 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.719 the spike protein. I think we're in pretty good shape 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:01.520 regardless of the very ations now in terms of making 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.960 sure that that the vaccination will be very effective, right, 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.400 because that's what I've heard that the current vaccines um 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:11.360 still will work on these mutations. Is that correct? That's 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:14.400 correct as far as I know, Yes, that's correct. And 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.279 I think that because the spike protein has not changed, 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:21.280 so it's not as it's the mutation profile is not 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.040 what we see in influenza uh. And I think that 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:29.480 that's encouraging. And we're very bullish on the m r 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:33.240 and A platform and the vaccine, both the Maderna and 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.960 the Fiser vaccine. So Dr corn, I want to ask 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.520 you when you're interviewing the Time. When you were interviewing 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:41.400 the Times back in May, you noted that our assumptions 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:45.120 around pandemic preparations were flawed. Are there assumptions we are 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.000 making right now about this wave of the COVID breakout? 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.560 This other wave, another wave, and about the distribution of 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:53.880 the vaccine and the impact that will have. Might some 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:57.680 of those assumptions be flawed as well. Well, anytime you're 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:01.680 doing probabilistic analysis, you you always there can always be 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.000 flaws in the model. What I would say, though, is 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:09.960 we grossly underestimated pre pandemic the amount of protective equipment 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:14.400 equipment we would need for personnel. Protective equipment. We have 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:18.520 over ninety days of supply for every major category of that. 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:22.720 We had issues in terms of do we have an ventilators, 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.600 We clearly don't have that issue. Now we know how 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:29.560 to create extra I SEU beds, and we know how 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:32.640 to create staffing models that that protect our patients. So 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:37.360 from that standpoint, we're much better off. Where I think 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.000 that we can make a mistake as a country is 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:43.320 to assume that the vaccines here, we can let down 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.800 our guard and let's go back to business as usual. 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:48.680 It's going to take a while for us to get 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.400 to hurt immunity, and so we've got to do two 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:56.600 things simultaneously. Be really stringent about the guidelines uh and 0:07:56.600 --> 0:07:59.400 and separating ourselves from each other. As tough as that 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.880 maybe UM and let people get vaccinated and educate the 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.960 population on the vaccine. We have a lot of the 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:12.120 population is skeptical of the vaccine. Are populations of color 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.000 who have been experimented upon in the past, their skeptical 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:17.560 of the vaccine. So we've really got to educate the 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:21.240 population as to the safety and the efficacy of the vaccine, 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:24.000 and then hopefully by the spring will be at a 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:26.920 point where we can really start to uh to get 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.400 out of this. Dr Corwin, I want to know about 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:32.880 the hospitals finances and the financial health of the hospitals 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.440 that you oversee. I know they took a big hit 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:39.240 earlier this year with elective surgeries canceled and being put off, 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:43.640 but how do they stand today. Well, we're fortunate our 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:46.800 balance sheet. We're double A rated. We have a very 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.240 strong balance sheet. But on a base of nine billion 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.800 dollars we typically would have a margin of between three 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.640 and four percent, we're gonna lose close to eight hundred 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.280 million dollars this year. We had to put a three 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:07.400 million dollars into our employees childcare bus service UH meals 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.560 uh bonuses UH and we're proud that we were able 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.160 to do that. I think we'll get better next year, 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.959 but a lot of it depends upon the economy coming 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:21.320 back to normal, uh and people being able to move 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:24.320 about freely. Well, and when do you think we will 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:28.200 move be moving about around freely? Um? Is it next summer? 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:32.200 Is it next fall? I hope by next summer we 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.400 really see that. I hope that by May we've got 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:38.760 mass vaccination. Um. I think a lot of it depends 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:44.520 quite frankly on the distribution mechanism of the vaccine, some 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:46.960 of the storage issues with the vaccine. I think the 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:51.600 incoming administration will be laser focused on making sure that 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.760 that that we get the vaccine into arms, and I 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:59.360 think that's really critical. The Fiser vaccine we're very happy 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:03.760 to give because as as an institution, we have plenty 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:07.200 of freezer storage. It's for minus eighties. Agrees, that's much 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:11.000 more challenging if you're trying to give vaccine in the community. 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:14.360 The Maderna vaccines easier to store, and some of the 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:18.000 later vaccines will be easier to store. But I think 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.160 that that's going to be a challenge for us logistically. 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:22.600 Hey just got about a minute left. When does the 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.720 mass public like, what's the rollout look? For the rest 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:28.040 of us. Eventually when that comes, is it that you're 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:29.880 going to get a call from your doctor or they're 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:32.360 going to call up people based on eight Like, how 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:33.600 are they going to do it? What do we know 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.679 about that? If? If anything? At this point, I think 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.320 you have to assume that what's going to happen is 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.720 once we do the healthcare workers and the nursing home residents, 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:47.640 you'll have a balancing act between essential workers. Uh, and 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:50.320 then people over the age of seventy, maybe over the 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:54.160 age of sixty five, and people with significant co morbid conditions. 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:56.600 If you're a healthy thirty five year old, you're going 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.280 to be towards the towards the end of that line, 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:01.640 if you will. Um, So, I think you're gonna be 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:06.679 talking about age, comorbidities and essential workers. Uh. And we 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:10.559 know that our essential workers are at risk, whether you're 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:14.400 working in the subway, a grocery store, whether you're a longshoreman, 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.000 whether you're a truck driver. So I think that that's 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:21.679 really critical for us to get the economy going better. Yeah, absolutely, 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.320 Dr Corn, thank you so much. I know things are 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:26.320 crazy and you're busy, so that you carved up so 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.320 much time for us. Thank you so much. Be well 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.160 and stay safe for you and your team and your families. 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:34.240 Dr Stephen Corwan, he's President and CEO of New York Presbyterian. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.679 Joining us on the phone in New York City. This 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:41.079 is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:45.200 We love Sean Donna Yes for his reporting and especially 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.280 when he can weave in the nine zombie classic Night 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.920 of the Living Dead to tell a really weighty story 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:54.680 about the American economy facing a zombie recovery. I know 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:56.800 you caught up with him over on Cricktake earlier today. 0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:59.880 We did earlier, and Carol, we're gonna get to Sean 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.199 and and Joel in just a sec. But I mean 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:06.000 this story. It puts a name and a story to 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.079 the people who have been affected by the pandemic and 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.240 by the lack of movement in Washington, which is something 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:12.839 we talked about all the time, but we don't meet 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.679 the people who've been affected. Right, really like drilling down 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:18.000 and that's what Sean is so good at. Let's bring 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.880 in Sean. He's Bloomberg New Senior Trade and Globalization reporter 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:22.880 reporting for Bloomberg Business Week. He is with us on 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.160 the phone in Maryland, along with Bloomberg business Week editor 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.160 Joel Weber on the access line in Brooklyn. And Joel, 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.720 it's just a reminder we talked about these big macro stories, 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:35.280 but it's people, it's companies, it's small businesses behind it all. Yeah. 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:38.640 And Sean has been like singularly focused and obsessed with 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:43.400 Pennsylvania for for several months and for good reason, um, 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:45.280 with the election. And so when he said, Hey, I 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.920 want to go to Evans City, Pennsylvania, I was like, 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.800 what in the hell is in Evans City, Pennsylvania. And 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.360 it turns out it was where The Night of the 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:56.720 Living Dead was filmed in nineteen sixty obviously a great 0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:00.440 zombie film. And he goes, but wait, it's really, you know, 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:03.960 like the most perfect character that you could have for 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:08.400 the story of America's zombie economy. Um, so would you 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:13.679 would you find there? And I hope you don't say zombies, Sean, Well, 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:16.040 I didn't find any zombies. It's actually turns out in 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:19.760 a bad year for zombies, like a lot of us. Uh. 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.439 The The Living Dead Museum and gift shop in Evan City, 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.640 which was there to take advantage of tourists who come 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:29.360 from around the world to visit this. Uh this place 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:33.040 which kind of gave birth to the American zombie genre. 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.719 Uh is h has shut down, and it's shut down 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.400 because of the pandemic, and uh so it is no 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:42.680 longer It's not been a good dear for zombies. I 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.520 think you know this story is is. As I was 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.560 thinking about this story, I was really thinking about not 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:52.079 so much the people who have felt the most extreme impact, 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:56.439 uh of the economic side of of the pandemic, those 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.120 who have lost their job, those who have joined the breadlines, 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:03.160 those who have um really or or lost loved ones. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:06.280 I was thinking of that, that kind of that that 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:10.320 bigger mass of people for whom this has been a hit. 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.720 They're not dead, but they're not living the same lives 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.520 that they were beforehand. And that's really what you find 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.280 in Butler County, which is home to Evans City. It's 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:24.520 a a suburban county of Pittsburgh. Uh it's at the 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.680 aggregate level, looks like a place that is doing better 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.400 than the rest of America when it comes to unemployment. Certainly, 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.120 the unemployment rate there in in October was five point 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:37.200 nine percent, which is a full percentage point better than 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.520 the national rate was in October um. And yet you 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.080 scratch the surface and you discover all of these people 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:48.560 who are surviving in the world of kind of curtailed ambitions. 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.600 The guy who ran the Living Dead Museum and gift 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:54.400 shop in Evan City started the year thinking he was 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:57.720 going to be expanding his business. Instead he's shutting down 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:01.520 that that location in Evan City. You go down the 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.120 street and you talk to people who run one of 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:08.400 the local sports bars there, businesses down six. You wander 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:10.960 shortly out of you know, a short distance out of town, 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.160 and you run into a company called fiber con which 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:18.080 makes these little bits of steel that give the kind 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:22.320 of reinforced to reinforced concrete. If you're building a factory floor, 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.200 you're going to be using those little bits of steel. 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.760 Their businesses down by a third. And you find that 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:30.760 same story over and over again in Butler County and 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.720 in a lot of places in America right now. And 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:39.040 that's the kind of that grind, that economic grind um 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.720 that we're stuck in right now. Yeah, I want to 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.840 stay on that theme because one of the companies that 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.120 you spoke to was ed Beans Incorporated. This is a 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:51.680 coffee roaster in Cranberry Township, and they owned a regional 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:56.000 chain of coffee shops called Crazy Mocha. They did get 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:57.960 more than half a million dollars in a P P 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:02.160 P loan back in April, but enough, right, Yeah, And 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.160 you know, and that's one of the themes that I 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.320 think it's kind of front of mind right now here 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.360 in Washington is as Congress is debating a new rescue 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:14.000 package for that will include hopefully help for UH for 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:16.480 small businesses. Is that that money that went out in 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.360 the spring kind of helped a lot of small businesses 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:22.200 get through a few months. And if you think back 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.000 to March and April and and May, at that time, 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:26.560 we thought this thing was going to be with us 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:30.040 from maybe three or four months, and really the priority 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:33.960 was on getting companies through that. Well, you know, Crazy 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:38.800 Mocha got into the fall and UH discovered that business 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:42.240 had not bounced back. Those office workers had not returned 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.920 to work. It relies on them to to buy coffee. 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:49.080 And in October it filed for bankruptcy. UH and it's 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.840 stopped paying rent. It's got you know, it's seven of 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:55.120 its twenty three locations are are still open and kind 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:59.400 of crawling along. But that's probably something that we should 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:02.400 be thinking about more as a as a leading indicator really, 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.320 and a lot of economists worry that while we haven't 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.640 seen a big surge in bankruptcies this year, we could 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.960 see it uh next year unless we get the economy 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:15.960 back on track, because right now the economy is really 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:20.200 reliant on this kind of injection of fiscal health fiscal 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:25.080 um uh, the fiscal stimulus that's come from Congress, and 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.600 it needs more of it to get back to normal life. 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.440 Speaking of normal life, what what do people like Kevin Crease, 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:36.240 who's the owner of the Living Dead Museum? What is 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.320 what are his plans now? And does he ever does 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:41.159 he hope that he's going to be able to reopen? What? 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.439 What's that? What's that look like for people who have 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:45.919 had to shut her and are trying to figure out 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.840 the future. Yeah, So a big part of Kevin Crease's 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:53.560 life was travel. Uh. He made his money as the 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.560 Zombie Guy, and a lot of fan fests are around 0:17:56.560 --> 0:18:01.240 the country and in industry conventions selling zombie t shirts 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:05.800 and other bits of memorabilia. He also staged an annual 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:10.280 festival every year which relied on people coming in. You 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.119 talked to him, He's, uh, you know, he's got some 0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:16.600 other businesses selling other kinds of memorabilia online. He'll survive. 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.000 But the zombie business, he really needs people to be 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:23.640 back and traveling again, and be comfortable traveling again and 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:26.400 hanging out in crowds, because that's how he makes his business. 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:29.720 I mean bottom line, Sean. I mean, as we look 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:31.800 at and these small businesses that you talked to, and 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.480 as you write in your story you mentioned earlier, you know, 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.760 even you know, the well known companies of corporate America, 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:40.800 the big publicly health companies. I mean, they've been taking 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:43.959 on a lot of debt and there might be some 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:46.679 tricky spots in terms of servicing that debt. So there 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:49.919 are a lot of questions about what one might look like. 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:52.600 And we've just got about thirty five seconds here. Yeah, 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:55.560 and the simple answer to that is you need demand 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:58.360 to come back in in the US economy. I think, 0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.320 you know, we we in the last half of this year. 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:05.160 We bought into this narrative and financial markets certainly brought 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.320 into this narrative that we were bouncing back, that the 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:11.040 recovery was going gangbuster as well. We've seen that slow 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:14.880 down as cases have surged in the last couple of months, 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:18.120 and the US economy is gonna and this is really 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:20.280 something that stops me every time I think about it. 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:23.600 Is going to end this year five smaller. It's more 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.280 than a trillion dollars smaller than it would have been 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:30.440 otherwise if we had not had a Alright, we're gonna 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:33.119 leave it on that note. All right, thank you guys 0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:36.920 so much. That was Bloomberg News Senior Trade and Globalization 0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:40.240 reporter Sean Donnin reporting for Bloomberg Business Week along with 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:44.440 Bloomberg Business We get it. This is Bloomberg Business Week 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:47.879 with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Tim I want to 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:50.320 do one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg today. 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.200 It's about how all across Wall Street, the radiality is 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.480 kind of sticking sinking in. Even though we're seeing progress 0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:58.960 in terms of a vaccine, those folks are going to 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:02.040 be working from home for some time. Big question is 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:03.879 what is that home in New York? Where is it 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.880 in Florida? Yeah, there is that. Because we know all 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:08.960 of those things are i'd play, hey, let's bring in. 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.479 This story was written by Bloomberg's Jenny Seraine and Michelle Davis. 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:14.720 Joining us right now. Is Jenny, She's financial reporter at 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:16.840 Bloomberg News. She's on the phone in New York City. 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.000 So Jenny, tell us about the reporting you and Michelle 0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:20.919 have been doing, What who you're talking to, and what 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.880 you're finding out. So it seems like, you know, after 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:27.280 most of the summer, we heard from lots of the 0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:31.119 world's biggest banks that they were really looking to bring back, um, 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:33.560 a lot of their employees to the to their New 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:36.879 York and US offices. More broadly, Um, they really had 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:40.520 to taper back. So um, we've they've already started to 0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:43.919 see employees kind of thin out. Some have actually told employees, 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:46.399 you know, if it's not absolutely essential for you to 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:49.199 be here, we want you to stay home. Um. And 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:51.520 for some it's just the employees themselves saying, you know what, 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:53.520 I've got holiday plans. I want to I want to 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:56.400 say it, I want to stay put. What changed is it? 0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.440 The fact that they're this wave is so much worse 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:01.600 than well, I won't say that everyone thought, because a 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:03.320 lot of people thought it was going to be this bad, right, 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:05.720 but you know, these these banks, as you as you said, 0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:10.240 we're optimistic about getting people butts and seats as they say, right, yeah, 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:12.160 I think you know, I think one of the things 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:15.280 that changed that changed is really, um, you know, as 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:17.440 the vaccine has actually made its way here and we're 0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:20.000 starting to see the initial stages of rollout, I think 0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:22.200 banks have really come to terms with the fact that 0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:25.040 their employees are not first in line. Um, you know, 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.679 it's it's really healthcare workers and residents in these long 0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:29.480 term care facilities that are going to be getting it, 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:31.880 at least in this initial round. And so I think 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:34.720 as they've come to accept that and and just kind 0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:37.240 of seeing how bad this wave really was, UM, it's 0:21:37.320 --> 0:21:39.879 kind of led executives to maybe pump the brakes a 0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:42.320 little bit. In terms of the messaging round coming back 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:44.640 to the office, Jenny, how many had really come back though, 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.800 because the city has felt pretty quiet, So I'm just 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.960