Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: Global News. There's so much going on when it comes
Speaker 1: to a vaccine. Um keep in mind global coronavirus cases
Speaker 1: passing seventy three million, deaths are passing one point sixty
Speaker 1: two million. For more on what he is seeing as
Speaker 1: Dr Stephen Coryn, He's president and CEO of New York
Speaker 1: Presbyterian Hospital, who The New York Times called in the
Speaker 1: spring the CEO at the center of New York's coronavirus crisis.
Speaker 1: He um I should point out the first confirmed case
Speaker 1: in the New York area was in one of New
Speaker 1: York Presbyterians hospitals in southern Westchester. Dr corn joining us
Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City. Dr Corin, thank
Speaker 1: you so nice to have you here with Tim and myself.
Speaker 1: How are you and what are you seeing when it
Speaker 1: comes to COVID cases right now? Well, thanks Carol and
Speaker 1: Tin for having me on. We're seeing a significant increase
Speaker 1: in COVID cases. Worried about of what our peak was
Speaker 1: uh in UH in the April time frame, and we
Speaker 1: expected quickly to go to the thirty five range by
Speaker 1: Christmas time, if not a little bit after. So we're
Speaker 1: seeing a significant uptick. The good news is that people
Speaker 1: are less sick with the virus as we see it.
Speaker 1: During April, we had a mortality rate in the hospital
Speaker 1: of about extraordinary. Now it's down to about five, which
Speaker 1: is still horrific, especially if it's your loved one, but
Speaker 1: but much less than April. So I would say we've
Speaker 1: got a rough four to six weeks ahead of us UH.
Speaker 1: But UM, I think that we'll get through it a
Speaker 1: specially as we start vaccinating people quick follow. UM. Do
Speaker 1: you anticipate that we're going to get back to those
Speaker 1: levels in terms of hospitalizations UM and cases um where
Speaker 1: we are there, but in terms of hospitalizations that we
Speaker 1: saw back in the spring, we hope not. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: we're clearly mindful of that. Our modeling would show that
Speaker 1: we would peek in the in the middle of January
Speaker 1: unless we have a really terrible Christmas season in terms
Speaker 1: of people traveling and avoiding, social distancing and masking. We
Speaker 1: still haven't seen the full peak of of what happened
Speaker 1: and Thanksgiving, so that that really is a variable that
Speaker 1: that that relates to this directly. So uh, certainly no
Speaker 1: one wants to go back to where the city was
Speaker 1: in April, and we certainly don't. Uh. And so again,
Speaker 1: until we get mass vaccination, masking, social distancing, washing your hands,
Speaker 1: all the things you keep hearing about become really critical
Speaker 1: and I empathize with are elected officials in terms of
Speaker 1: how much of a lockdown do you need to have
Speaker 1: versus not. I think a lot of it depends on
Speaker 1: how much virus is circulating. Dr Corwin, Why is the
Speaker 1: mortality rate gone down so much? Is it because of
Speaker 1: what we've learned, what you've learned since March since April?
Speaker 1: Is it because the hospital is not strained in the
Speaker 1: same way as it because of therapeutics? Um? I think
Speaker 1: first the answer to your question is I really don't know,
Speaker 1: to be honest with you, I do think that we
Speaker 1: certainly know how to take care of the patients better.
Speaker 1: Um ramdzevie steroids. They may not be game changers, but
Speaker 1: but we know how to use these drugs. UM with
Speaker 1: the masking and social distancing, are people getting less of
Speaker 1: a viral load when they get sick. We've certainly seen
Speaker 1: a shift to a younger demographic who tends to be
Speaker 1: less sick with the virus um And to your point,
Speaker 1: any system over that gets overwhelmed, it becomes more difficult
Speaker 1: to save lives. So the ability to not get the
Speaker 1: hospital overwhelmed, I think plays into it as well. So
Speaker 1: all of the above, but it's gonna take us a
Speaker 1: while to swart through this virus becoming less virulent. We
Speaker 1: don't see that, but that's that's gonna take time for
Speaker 1: us to figure out. One thing that you just said
Speaker 1: really struck me. People wearing masks that you get less
Speaker 1: of a viral load. I haven't heard that before. What
Speaker 1: does that mean? Well, remember, uh, you know, uh, masks
Speaker 1: aren't totally effective, but it helps to it helps to
Speaker 1: filter out particles, and so we use the N ninety
Speaker 1: five masks when we're caring for patients. UH, and that
Speaker 1: clearly prevents UH inhalation of the virus particles. So wearing
Speaker 1: a surgical mask not only protects the person that you
Speaker 1: would be breathing on, but also helps to protect you.
Speaker 1: And if you get less of a viral load, you
Speaker 1: may have a milder, milder infection that if somebody gave
Speaker 1: you a full viru a load, which is clearly what
Speaker 1: we saw in the beginning of the pandemic. Right, It's
Speaker 1: so simple, but it doesn't make a difference. Hey, what
Speaker 1: do you make Dr Corrin? A new mutation of COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen turned up and I guess more than a thousand
Speaker 1: infected patients in the UK and was being blamed for
Speaker 1: more rapid spread of the contagion. Does that make you
Speaker 1: a little nervous? It does? I mean I think that
Speaker 1: this We know that the virus has many, many mutations.
Speaker 1: I mean this is not the first one. Uh. When
Speaker 1: people went on holiday this summer, they came back with
Speaker 1: a variation from Spain which appeared to be more virulent
Speaker 1: and caused wider spread. So this is not surprising. Virus is,
Speaker 1: like anything else, mutate over time. The fortunate aspect for
Speaker 1: US VISA via vaccine is the spike protein is the
Speaker 1: key in terms of inducing immunogenicity, and so knowing the
Speaker 1: spike protein um and and developing the m RNA towards
Speaker 1: the spike protein. I think we're in pretty good shape
Speaker 1: regardless of the very ations now in terms of making
Speaker 1: sure that that the vaccination will be very effective, right,
Speaker 1: because that's what I've heard that the current vaccines um
Speaker 1: still will work on these mutations. Is that correct? That's
Speaker 1: correct as far as I know, Yes, that's correct. And
Speaker 1: I think that because the spike protein has not changed,
Speaker 1: so it's not as it's the mutation profile is not
Speaker 1: what we see in influenza uh. And I think that
Speaker 1: that's encouraging. And we're very bullish on the m r
Speaker 1: and A platform and the vaccine, both the Maderna and
Speaker 1: the Fiser vaccine. So Dr corn, I want to ask
Speaker 1: you when you're interviewing the Time. When you were interviewing
Speaker 1: the Times back in May, you noted that our assumptions
Speaker 1: around pandemic preparations were flawed. Are there assumptions we are
Speaker 1: making right now about this wave of the COVID breakout?
Speaker 1: This other wave, another wave, and about the distribution of
Speaker 1: the vaccine and the impact that will have. Might some
Speaker 1: of those assumptions be flawed as well. Well, anytime you're
Speaker 1: doing probabilistic analysis, you you always there can always be
Speaker 1: flaws in the model. What I would say, though, is
Speaker 1: we grossly underestimated pre pandemic the amount of protective equipment
Speaker 1: equipment we would need for personnel. Protective equipment. We have
Speaker 1: over ninety days of supply for every major category of that.
Speaker 1: We had issues in terms of do we have an ventilators,
Speaker 1: We clearly don't have that issue. Now we know how
Speaker 1: to create extra I SEU beds, and we know how
Speaker 1: to create staffing models that that protect our patients. So
Speaker 1: from that standpoint, we're much better off. Where I think
Speaker 1: that we can make a mistake as a country is
Speaker 1: to assume that the vaccines here, we can let down
Speaker 1: our guard and let's go back to business as usual.
Speaker 1: It's going to take a while for us to get
Speaker 1: to hurt immunity, and so we've got to do two
Speaker 1: things simultaneously. Be really stringent about the guidelines uh and
Speaker 1: and separating ourselves from each other. As tough as that
Speaker 1: maybe UM and let people get vaccinated and educate the
Speaker 1: population on the vaccine. We have a lot of the
Speaker 1: population is skeptical of the vaccine. Are populations of color
Speaker 1: who have been experimented upon in the past, their skeptical
Speaker 1: of the vaccine. So we've really got to educate the
Speaker 1: population as to the safety and the efficacy of the vaccine,
Speaker 1: and then hopefully by the spring will be at a
Speaker 1: point where we can really start to uh to get
Speaker 1: out of this. Dr Corwin, I want to know about
Speaker 1: the hospitals finances and the financial health of the hospitals
Speaker 1: that you oversee. I know they took a big hit
Speaker 1: earlier this year with elective surgeries canceled and being put off,
Speaker 1: but how do they stand today. Well, we're fortunate our
Speaker 1: balance sheet. We're double A rated. We have a very
Speaker 1: strong balance sheet. But on a base of nine billion
Speaker 1: dollars we typically would have a margin of between three
Speaker 1: and four percent, we're gonna lose close to eight hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars this year. We had to put a three
Speaker 1: million dollars into our employees childcare bus service UH meals
Speaker 1: uh bonuses UH and we're proud that we were able
Speaker 1: to do that. I think we'll get better next year,
Speaker 1: but a lot of it depends upon the economy coming
Speaker 1: back to normal, uh and people being able to move
Speaker 1: about freely. Well, and when do you think we will
Speaker 1: move be moving about around freely? Um? Is it next summer?
Speaker 1: Is it next fall? I hope by next summer we
Speaker 1: really see that. I hope that by May we've got
Speaker 1: mass vaccination. Um. I think a lot of it depends
Speaker 1: quite frankly on the distribution mechanism of the vaccine, some
Speaker 1: of the storage issues with the vaccine. I think the
Speaker 1: incoming administration will be laser focused on making sure that
Speaker 1: that that we get the vaccine into arms, and I
Speaker 1: think that's really critical. The Fiser vaccine we're very happy
Speaker 1: to give because as as an institution, we have plenty
Speaker 1: of freezer storage. It's for minus eighties. Agrees, that's much
Speaker 1: more challenging if you're trying to give vaccine in the community.
Speaker 1: The Maderna vaccines easier to store, and some of the
Speaker 1: later vaccines will be easier to store. But I think
Speaker 1: that that's going to be a challenge for us logistically.
Speaker 1: Hey just got about a minute left. When does the
Speaker 1: mass public like, what's the rollout look? For the rest
Speaker 1: of us. Eventually when that comes, is it that you're
Speaker 1: going to get a call from your doctor or they're
Speaker 1: going to call up people based on eight Like, how
Speaker 1: are they going to do it? What do we know
Speaker 1: about that? If? If anything? At this point, I think
Speaker 1: you have to assume that what's going to happen is
Speaker 1: once we do the healthcare workers and the nursing home residents,
Speaker 1: you'll have a balancing act between essential workers. Uh, and
Speaker 1: then people over the age of seventy, maybe over the
Speaker 1: age of sixty five, and people with significant co morbid conditions.
Speaker 1: If you're a healthy thirty five year old, you're going
Speaker 1: to be towards the towards the end of that line,
Speaker 1: if you will. Um, So, I think you're gonna be
Speaker 1: talking about age, comorbidities and essential workers. Uh. And we
Speaker 1: know that our essential workers are at risk, whether you're
Speaker 1: working in the subway, a grocery store, whether you're a longshoreman,
Speaker 1: whether you're a truck driver. So I think that that's
Speaker 1: really critical for us to get the economy going better. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 1: Dr Corn, thank you so much. I know things are
Speaker 1: crazy and you're busy, so that you carved up so
Speaker 1: much time for us. Thank you so much. Be well
Speaker 1: and stay safe for you and your team and your families.
Speaker 1: Dr Stephen Corwan, he's President and CEO of New York Presbyterian.
Speaker 1: Joining us on the phone in New York City. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: We love Sean Donna Yes for his reporting and especially
Speaker 1: when he can weave in the nine zombie classic Night
Speaker 1: of the Living Dead to tell a really weighty story
Speaker 1: about the American economy facing a zombie recovery. I know
Speaker 1: you caught up with him over on Cricktake earlier today.
Speaker 1: We did earlier, and Carol, we're gonna get to Sean
Speaker 1: and and Joel in just a sec. But I mean
Speaker 1: this story. It puts a name and a story to
Speaker 1: the people who have been affected by the pandemic and
Speaker 1: by the lack of movement in Washington, which is something
Speaker 1: we talked about all the time, but we don't meet
Speaker 1: the people who've been affected. Right, really like drilling down
Speaker 1: and that's what Sean is so good at. Let's bring
Speaker 1: in Sean. He's Bloomberg New Senior Trade and Globalization reporter
Speaker 1: reporting for Bloomberg Business Week. He is with us on
Speaker 1: the phone in Maryland, along with Bloomberg business Week editor
Speaker 1: Joel Weber on the access line in Brooklyn. And Joel,
Speaker 1: it's just a reminder we talked about these big macro stories,
Speaker 1: but it's people, it's companies, it's small businesses behind it all. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And Sean has been like singularly focused and obsessed with
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania for for several months and for good reason, um,
Speaker 1: with the election. And so when he said, Hey, I
Speaker 1: want to go to Evans City, Pennsylvania, I was like,
Speaker 1: what in the hell is in Evans City, Pennsylvania. And
Speaker 1: it turns out it was where The Night of the
Speaker 1: Living Dead was filmed in nineteen sixty obviously a great
Speaker 1: zombie film. And he goes, but wait, it's really, you know,
Speaker 1: like the most perfect character that you could have for
Speaker 1: the story of America's zombie economy. Um, so would you
Speaker 1: would you find there? And I hope you don't say zombies, Sean, Well,
Speaker 1: I didn't find any zombies. It's actually turns out in
Speaker 1: a bad year for zombies, like a lot of us. Uh.
Speaker 1: The The Living Dead Museum and gift shop in Evan City,
Speaker 1: which was there to take advantage of tourists who come
Speaker 1: from around the world to visit this. Uh this place
Speaker 1: which kind of gave birth to the American zombie genre.
Speaker 1: Uh is h has shut down, and it's shut down
Speaker 1: because of the pandemic, and uh so it is no
Speaker 1: longer It's not been a good dear for zombies. I
Speaker 1: think you know this story is is. As I was
Speaker 1: thinking about this story, I was really thinking about not
Speaker 1: so much the people who have felt the most extreme impact,
Speaker 1: uh of the economic side of of the pandemic, those
Speaker 1: who have lost their job, those who have joined the breadlines,
Speaker 1: those who have um really or or lost loved ones.
Speaker 1: I was thinking of that, that kind of that that
Speaker 1: bigger mass of people for whom this has been a hit.
Speaker 1: They're not dead, but they're not living the same lives
Speaker 1: that they were beforehand. And that's really what you find
Speaker 1: in Butler County, which is home to Evans City. It's
Speaker 1: a a suburban county of Pittsburgh. Uh it's at the
Speaker 1: aggregate level, looks like a place that is doing better
Speaker 1: than the rest of America when it comes to unemployment. Certainly,
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate there in in October was five point
Speaker 1: nine percent, which is a full percentage point better than
Speaker 1: the national rate was in October um. And yet you
Speaker 1: scratch the surface and you discover all of these people
Speaker 1: who are surviving in the world of kind of curtailed ambitions.
Speaker 1: The guy who ran the Living Dead Museum and gift
Speaker 1: shop in Evan City started the year thinking he was
Speaker 1: going to be expanding his business. Instead he's shutting down
Speaker 1: that that location in Evan City. You go down the
Speaker 1: street and you talk to people who run one of
Speaker 1: the local sports bars there, businesses down six. You wander
Speaker 1: shortly out of you know, a short distance out of town,
Speaker 1: and you run into a company called fiber con which
Speaker 1: makes these little bits of steel that give the kind
Speaker 1: of reinforced to reinforced concrete. If you're building a factory floor,
Speaker 1: you're going to be using those little bits of steel.
Speaker 1: Their businesses down by a third. And you find that
Speaker 1: same story over and over again in Butler County and
Speaker 1: in a lot of places in America right now. And
Speaker 1: that's the kind of that grind, that economic grind um
Speaker 1: that we're stuck in right now. Yeah, I want to
Speaker 1: stay on that theme because one of the companies that
Speaker 1: you spoke to was ed Beans Incorporated. This is a
Speaker 1: coffee roaster in Cranberry Township, and they owned a regional
Speaker 1: chain of coffee shops called Crazy Mocha. They did get
Speaker 1: more than half a million dollars in a P P
Speaker 1: P loan back in April, but enough, right, Yeah, And
Speaker 1: you know, and that's one of the themes that I
Speaker 1: think it's kind of front of mind right now here
Speaker 1: in Washington is as Congress is debating a new rescue
Speaker 1: package for that will include hopefully help for UH for
Speaker 1: small businesses. Is that that money that went out in
Speaker 1: the spring kind of helped a lot of small businesses
Speaker 1: get through a few months. And if you think back
Speaker 1: to March and April and and May, at that time,
Speaker 1: we thought this thing was going to be with us
Speaker 1: from maybe three or four months, and really the priority
Speaker 1: was on getting companies through that. Well, you know, Crazy
Speaker 1: Mocha got into the fall and UH discovered that business
Speaker 1: had not bounced back. Those office workers had not returned
Speaker 1: to work. It relies on them to to buy coffee.
Speaker 1: And in October it filed for bankruptcy. UH and it's
Speaker 1: stopped paying rent. It's got you know, it's seven of
Speaker 1: its twenty three locations are are still open and kind
Speaker 1: of crawling along. But that's probably something that we should
Speaker 1: be thinking about more as a as a leading indicator really,
Speaker 1: and a lot of economists worry that while we haven't
Speaker 1: seen a big surge in bankruptcies this year, we could
Speaker 1: see it uh next year unless we get the economy
Speaker 1: back on track, because right now the economy is really
Speaker 1: reliant on this kind of injection of fiscal health fiscal
Speaker 1: um uh, the fiscal stimulus that's come from Congress, and
Speaker 1: it needs more of it to get back to normal life.
Speaker 1: Speaking of normal life, what what do people like Kevin Crease,
Speaker 1: who's the owner of the Living Dead Museum? What is
Speaker 1: what are his plans now? And does he ever does
Speaker 1: he hope that he's going to be able to reopen? What?
Speaker 1: What's that? What's that look like for people who have
Speaker 1: had to shut her and are trying to figure out
Speaker 1: the future. Yeah, So a big part of Kevin Crease's
Speaker 1: life was travel. Uh. He made his money as the
Speaker 1: Zombie Guy, and a lot of fan fests are around
Speaker 1: the country and in industry conventions selling zombie t shirts
Speaker 1: and other bits of memorabilia. He also staged an annual
Speaker 1: festival every year which relied on people coming in. You
Speaker 1: talked to him, He's, uh, you know, he's got some
Speaker 1: other businesses selling other kinds of memorabilia online. He'll survive.
Speaker 1: But the zombie business, he really needs people to be
Speaker 1: back and traveling again, and be comfortable traveling again and
Speaker 1: hanging out in crowds, because that's how he makes his business.
Speaker 1: I mean bottom line, Sean. I mean, as we look
Speaker 1: at and these small businesses that you talked to, and
Speaker 1: as you write in your story you mentioned earlier, you know,
Speaker 1: even you know, the well known companies of corporate America,
Speaker 1: the big publicly health companies. I mean, they've been taking
Speaker 1: on a lot of debt and there might be some
Speaker 1: tricky spots in terms of servicing that debt. So there
Speaker 1: are a lot of questions about what one might look like.
Speaker 1: And we've just got about thirty five seconds here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and the simple answer to that is you need demand
Speaker 1: to come back in in the US economy. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, we we in the last half of this year.
Speaker 1: We bought into this narrative and financial markets certainly brought
Speaker 1: into this narrative that we were bouncing back, that the
Speaker 1: recovery was going gangbuster as well. We've seen that slow
Speaker 1: down as cases have surged in the last couple of months,
Speaker 1: and the US economy is gonna and this is really
Speaker 1: something that stops me every time I think about it.
Speaker 1: Is going to end this year five smaller. It's more
Speaker 1: than a trillion dollars smaller than it would have been
Speaker 1: otherwise if we had not had a Alright, we're gonna
Speaker 1: leave it on that note. All right, thank you guys
Speaker 1: so much. That was Bloomberg News Senior Trade and Globalization
Speaker 1: reporter Sean Donnin reporting for Bloomberg Business Week along with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business We get it. This is Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Tim I want to
Speaker 1: do one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg today.
Speaker 1: It's about how all across Wall Street, the radiality is
Speaker 1: kind of sticking sinking in. Even though we're seeing progress
Speaker 1: in terms of a vaccine, those folks are going to
Speaker 1: be working from home for some time. Big question is
Speaker 1: what is that home in New York? Where is it
Speaker 1: in Florida? Yeah, there is that. Because we know all
Speaker 1: of those things are i'd play, hey, let's bring in.
Speaker 1: This story was written by Bloomberg's Jenny Seraine and Michelle Davis.
Speaker 1: Joining us right now. Is Jenny, She's financial reporter at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. She's on the phone in New York City.
Speaker 1: So Jenny, tell us about the reporting you and Michelle
Speaker 1: have been doing, What who you're talking to, and what
Speaker 1: you're finding out. So it seems like, you know, after
Speaker 1: most of the summer, we heard from lots of the
Speaker 1: world's biggest banks that they were really looking to bring back, um,
Speaker 1: a lot of their employees to the to their New
Speaker 1: York and US offices. More broadly, Um, they really had
Speaker 1: to taper back. So um, we've they've already started to
Speaker 1: see employees kind of thin out. Some have actually told employees,
Speaker 1: you know, if it's not absolutely essential for you to
Speaker 1: be here, we want you to stay home. Um. And
Speaker 1: for some it's just the employees themselves saying, you know what,
Speaker 1: I've got holiday plans. I want to I want to
Speaker 1: say it, I want to stay put. What changed is it?
Speaker 1: The fact that they're this wave is so much worse
Speaker 1: than well, I won't say that everyone thought, because a
Speaker 1: lot of people thought it was going to be this bad, right,
Speaker 1: but you know, these these banks, as you as you said,
Speaker 1: we're optimistic about getting people butts and seats as they say, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think you know, I think one of the things
Speaker 1: that changed that changed is really, um, you know, as
Speaker 1: the vaccine has actually made its way here and we're
Speaker 1: starting to see the initial stages of rollout, I think
Speaker 1: banks have really come to terms with the fact that
Speaker 1: their employees are not first in line. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's really healthcare workers and residents in these long
Speaker 1: term care facilities that are going to be getting it,
Speaker 1: at least in this initial round. And so I think
Speaker 1: as they've come to accept that and and just kind
Speaker 1: of seeing how bad this wave really was, UM, it's
Speaker 1: kind of led executives to maybe pump the brakes a
Speaker 1: little bit. In terms of the messaging round coming back
Speaker 1: to the office, Jenny, how many had really come back though,
Speaker 1: because the city has felt pretty quiet, So I'm just
Speaker 1: curious how many at the big Wall Street banks really
Speaker 1: had come back to the office. So the rough numbers
Speaker 1: that we're hearing is that most places didn't see more
Speaker 1: than a quarter of people returned. So even though there
Speaker 1: was lots of messaging and lots of pushing maybe from managers, um,
Speaker 1: number kept coming up, and a lot of our conversations, um,
Speaker 1: and I think you know, a lot of that was
Speaker 1: also for the employees if they did come back, A
Speaker 1: lot of them maybe didn't see a real value just
Speaker 1: because the offices were so empty, so they were doing
Speaker 1: zoom calls all day anyways. So, UM, it's definitely kind
Speaker 1: of that that the shift cycle after a little bit,
Speaker 1: um where if not enough people are back, then more
Speaker 1: people don't really want to come in. How flexible are
Speaker 1: these banks as to where people are actually working? I
Speaker 1: mean I was joking with Carol, is this happening in
Speaker 1: in Florida or is it happening you know, in Westchester
Speaker 1: where these employees live. Um, are are they allowing them
Speaker 1: to actually travel to places that where they don't live?
Speaker 1: Or are there some sort of you know, encouragement to
Speaker 1: be close to the office. We haven't heard as much
Speaker 1: of that for New York definitely. You know, in Europe,
Speaker 1: if employees were in different countries than they were being
Speaker 1: asked to come back. But we haven't heard as much
Speaker 1: of that pressure here in New York. Um. But I mean,
Speaker 1: I do think especially for younger employees, they were told,
Speaker 1: you know, you need to start coming back. We want
Speaker 1: you to be in the city so that we're able
Speaker 1: to come in as and as we're able to have you.
Speaker 1: Um So I think, you know, I think there was
Speaker 1: maybe not as much pressure as we saw another regions,
Speaker 1: but still definitely that pressure did exist for a little
Speaker 1: bit of time. At least traders are back. That was
Speaker 1: I mean, that was definitely who in the first round
Speaker 1: of folks, and they've stayed. I'm right. Well, I think
Speaker 1: I think the banks have really learned that they can
Speaker 1: operate a trading floor with only a handful of people
Speaker 1: in the office. So I think that's what we're going
Speaker 1: back to. Now, what are the long term applications of
Speaker 1: a finding like that, I mean, does that mean head
Speaker 1: count gets lowered? No, I actually think I think the
Speaker 1: long term implication is just flexibility. Like I think it
Speaker 1: used to be that if a trader you know, had
Speaker 1: a plumber coming, they had to take the day and
Speaker 1: had to had to be I think they'll be able
Speaker 1: to just work from home on those days. I mean,
Speaker 1: we're talking about places where people still wear suits and ties, right, Like,
Speaker 1: flexibility not really in their you know, vocabulary, right right,
Speaker 1: So I think that will be the change for a
Speaker 1: lot of these folks is I think in the end
Speaker 1: allows and will still go back to the office five
Speaker 1: days a week, especially on the trading floor, but I
Speaker 1: just think there will be the option that they can
Speaker 1: work from home more often. Um, at least from the
Speaker 1: conversations we're having so far, how much Jenny is JP
Speaker 1: Morgan watching City Group, watching Bank of America watching Wells
Speaker 1: or whatever, like, how much are they all kind of
Speaker 1: watching one another to figure out what they are doing?
Speaker 1: I think so there's definitely, you know, different forums where
Speaker 1: executives from these banks come together and and talk about
Speaker 1: this stuff. But I honestly think a lot of it,
Speaker 1: Um you see it in the different messaging that you're
Speaker 1: getting from these thanks. You know. City was an example where, um,
Speaker 1: they were really cautious and they didn't put as much
Speaker 1: pressure maybe as some of their peers did. Um, they
Speaker 1: were fine with people, you know, if they wanted to
Speaker 1: work from home, if that's where they felt safe, that
Speaker 1: was fine by them. Obviously some other banks they were
Speaker 1: a little bit more strongly pushing people well to come back,
Speaker 1: especially their senior traders. So I definitely think you see
Speaker 1: a difference in tone which which definitely indicates you know,
Speaker 1: they operate separately obviously and have different thoughts on this.
Speaker 1: But UM, but there are other forms I think where
Speaker 1: if one is discovered, you know, one way to operate
Speaker 1: a trading more and more safely, then they'll share that information.
Speaker 1: UM in due course. All right, Gonna leave it there, Hey, Jenny,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Jenny Seraine Financial port rap Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News on the phone in New York City. I'm brow journal. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. No, no, no, no, drill
Speaker 1: night please, I'll do the drivel. I want to drive.
Speaker 1: Just drive, baby, it's the question trying. This is the
Speaker 1: drive to the globe, TIMMU. Thanks. We'll try us on radio.
Speaker 1: It is time for the drive to the close and
Speaker 1: back with us as John Trainer, he's chief investment officer
Speaker 1: a People's United Advisors, roughly nine billion dollars in assets
Speaker 1: under management. John with us joining Tim and myself. He
Speaker 1: is on the phone in Bridgeport, Connecticut. This as we see,
Speaker 1: as Charlie mentioned, UH stocks pretty much hovering near their
Speaker 1: best levels of the session. So Tim rapp about one
Speaker 1: percent here. There's optimism, there is some optimism. Hey, John,
Speaker 1: come on in on this. UM, the optimism that we're
Speaker 1: seeing in the markets. It seems to be over stimulus,
Speaker 1: potentially another round of aid coming from the federal government.
Speaker 1: How do you see it right now? Well, it would
Speaker 1: be fantastic to get this behind us. We're frankly surprised
Speaker 1: has taken this long, but any any stimulus that we
Speaker 1: can get would really give us a nice head of
Speaker 1: steam heading into next year. So I think that's what
Speaker 1: we're seeing in the market. It's almost it's almost a
Speaker 1: relief rally, but it's it's it's long overdoe and great
Speaker 1: to hear, great to see. What size stimulus do we need?
Speaker 1: You know, our GDP forecast for next year is three
Speaker 1: point seven and it's lower than others. That's lower than
Speaker 1: a lot of the big banks. Yeah, it is. It
Speaker 1: is a lot of them have been moving up, and
Speaker 1: it really is based upon the stimulus if we get
Speaker 1: you know, I've I've seen the cuts where everybody says
Speaker 1: that at a trillion dollars, here's my forecast at a
Speaker 1: trillion and a half, my forecast moves up. So what
Speaker 1: we'd love to see is the the stimulus come out.
Speaker 1: Let's see how it's impacted. We hope it's really focused
Speaker 1: on helping the unemployed and helping small business and we
Speaker 1: could potentially be moving up our GDP forecast based upon
Speaker 1: what we see. So you know, it's only positive news
Speaker 1: for us going into next year from the GDP side. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so positivity. So I do wonder in terms of portfolio
Speaker 1: allocation or where you want to kind of allocate some
Speaker 1: new money. I'm looking at some of the names that
Speaker 1: you're interested. A lot of them are consumer based, Nike,
Speaker 1: Dollar General. What's the Nike story for you? You know,
Speaker 1: for us, well, one of the things we're looking at
Speaker 1: our coup of these that are really controlling their their
Speaker 1: destiny through increased sales, and Nike has just done a
Speaker 1: fantastic job, not only through the normal retail channels, but
Speaker 1: on the direct to consumer side. So we like Nike
Speaker 1: just because we see accelerating revenue growth next year, you know,
Speaker 1: driven by organic growth, and that to us is really
Speaker 1: going to be rewarded next year. So we like that story.
Speaker 1: What about Dollar General, that's a company that you have
Speaker 1: on your list too, Yeah, Dollar General. I mean, they've
Speaker 1: they've been a great retailer, They've they've they've benefited from
Speaker 1: the pain that we've seen this year and we think,
Speaker 1: you know, we still have ten million people unemployed. Um,
Speaker 1: if you drew a line at sixty dollars in income,
Speaker 1: people above that are actually doing fairly well. If you're
Speaker 1: in that lower sector. Employment is still down twenty from
Speaker 1: where we were at the beginning of the year. So
Speaker 1: we see Dollar General and their target market is continuing
Speaker 1: to do well next year almost as a as a
Speaker 1: as a buffer against really some of the pain that
Speaker 1: we've seen. So we we like them going forward, but
Speaker 1: we want to be exposed to companies. Really, if you're
Speaker 1: in the retail sector, we want to see that that
Speaker 1: that sales momentum continuing that that to us is the key. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean Dollar General has been on such a tear.
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at kind of annal annual returns. And
Speaker 1: we saw it after the financial crisis, right like you know,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, people who couldn't afford to maybe
Speaker 1: go to some other retailers or for even some of
Speaker 1: the basics, they ended up going to Dollar General and
Speaker 1: they really picked up some new new customers exactly exactly.
Speaker 1: And you know, even though you know, we will see
Speaker 1: some stimulus, we believe with the vaccine. We're going to
Speaker 1: see a rebound in retail. We will see you know,
Speaker 1: we'll start to go back out to restaurants. That pain
Speaker 1: in the employment market is going to continue with us
Speaker 1: for a while. We have a lot of people to
Speaker 1: get back to work. So donald dollar general will still
Speaker 1: be a bargain for a lot of people last year,
Speaker 1: and it's up trending higher again this year. Year it's
Speaker 1: been on a tear. Like you said, um, what about
Speaker 1: when it comes to commons, because this is kind of
Speaker 1: a bet on the global economy, right, well, it is
Speaker 1: global and then infrastructure and what we've been doing, you know,
Speaker 1: you you asked about portfolio positioning what we've been doing
Speaker 1: this year, and we really started to do it in July.
Speaker 1: We entered the year with a real growth bias on
Speaker 1: in our portfolio and that has that has treated us
Speaker 1: very well this year. But in July, we we know,
Speaker 1: we got you know, more confidence in the FED, more
Speaker 1: confidence in the stimulus. We thought we would have a vaccine,
Speaker 1: so we said at some point that value trade, that
Speaker 1: broadening trade is going to work out well. So starting
Speaker 1: in July, we started to increase the our exposure to
Speaker 1: the more cyclical sectors of the market, and Commons on
Speaker 1: a global basis is one of those companies that we
Speaker 1: want to own. You know, we think that their position
Speaker 1: well for a not only the US, but really a
Speaker 1: global rebound. But you really want to be exposed to
Speaker 1: more cyclical sectors, not not dramatically, not the deep cycleols,
Speaker 1: but you want to be exposed to more economically sensitive
Speaker 1: stocks as you head into next year. What specifically they're
Speaker 1: about Commons, you could play that economically sensitive you know
Speaker 1: cycle a couple of different ways when it comes into
Speaker 1: you know, kind of the industrial space. Why Commons though specifically,
Speaker 1: well just because we we we like the fact that
Speaker 1: their their market leaders, they're they're very well exposed and
Speaker 1: not only trucking but the construction business, and we just
Speaker 1: think you're going to see you know, if you if
Speaker 1: you see investments in infrastructure, Commons is going to be
Speaker 1: a big, big player in that, and we think on
Speaker 1: a global basis, infrastructure is going to be one of
Speaker 1: the one of the key areas that will benefit from
Speaker 1: It's already up this year. Yeah, it's had a good run,
Speaker 1: a very good run, but we see a lot more
Speaker 1: in it. Thermost Fisher scientific tickers Tmo stocks up almost
Speaker 1: You've got a forward looking pe of about twenty five
Speaker 1: what is it? And you've also got um a little
Speaker 1: bit of a dividend there. But what is it about
Speaker 1: this one? Is it just that whole health tech explosion
Speaker 1: that we're seeing coming off of covid. Yeah, we've liked
Speaker 1: Thermo for quite a while and we almost look at
Speaker 1: it as our chicken way of playing the healthcare playing
Speaker 1: the biotech cycle because, uh, you know, for us, it's
Speaker 1: very difficult for a lot of analysts, it's very difficult
Speaker 1: to find a company that's going to have the the
Speaker 1: hot new drug that will get approval. What we'd rather
Speaker 1: do is by the arms supplier to that marketplace. No
Speaker 1: matter who you are, if you're doing research, you need
Speaker 1: to work with Thermo. So it's it's our way to
Speaker 1: benefit from the biotech revolution going on in the country
Speaker 1: right now, but to do it on a broad based
Speaker 1: basis rather than try and pick the right company with
Speaker 1: the right drug and the six billion dollar market care
Speaker 1: Are they the market leader? I'm curious how fragmented this
Speaker 1: market is Thermo. Thermo is is the market leader. They
Speaker 1: are the they are the play in this space and
Speaker 1: it's it's what we would consider to be just you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's our bread and butter holding in this area.
Speaker 1: I can see why interesting stuff. Hey, love love love
Speaker 1: talking with you, John, Thank you so much. Be well,
Speaker 1: stay safe and have a good holiday. John Trainer, Chief
Speaker 1: Investment Officer, People's United Wealth Management nine billion in assets
Speaker 1: under management, based in Bridgeport, Connecticut. I love talking names.
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