1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys app. Now 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: your hosts, Bow Repka and RJ Choppy, Welcome to the 4 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: Week one edition in the NFL of the football four 5 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,840 Speaker 1: oh one K. This will be week two for college. 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: We have got a great show in store getting ready 7 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: for Cowboys Tampa. We're gonna be getting ready for Week 8 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: one of the NFL season, and of course of the 9 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: second week of college football, which is gonna have a 10 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: couple of top ten matchups or top twelve matchups as 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: it may be. I'm RJ. Choppy from one oh five 12 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: through the fan of course that is Bo Repka, and 13 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: we have an absolute great set of games to pick 14 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: on for this week. And of course we're gonna have 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: Bo the Pizza money parlay later on, which we do love. 16 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: And that's just a very simple it's like a ten 17 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: dollar bet. It's the price of a pizza, very very easy, 18 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: and we're gonna have that for you coming up. But 19 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: first off, Bow Football four oh one K, what do 20 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: we have looking at? Let's just preview the Tampa and 21 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: the Cowboys game. Because I think conventional wisdom across the Country. 22 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: I shouldn't say that conventional wisdom among Cowboy fans that 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: the Cowboys are can get beat soundly. I love the 24 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 1: Cowboys plus eight in this one. Either they are a 25 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: massive live dog. Maybe that's just homery of me, and 26 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: that's I'm totally comfortable with that, But I think plus 27 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: eight it's an easy player. I think we are completely 28 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: overreacting to their title run that they had in recency bias. 29 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: When we look back, they were they were a good, 30 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: not great team during the regular season. Yeah, I mean, 31 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: for sure, I agree with that. There's always a little 32 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: bit of recency bias with the Shamps. Of course, they're 33 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: generally favored pretty big time coming out the first game. 34 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: If you know, everything remains pretty close to the same, 35 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: which it did. The only question is have we ever 36 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: seen in Super Bowl team be this close to the 37 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: same because they literally got everybody back down to their 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: last coach, like everybody came back to stick with Swammy 39 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 1: Boys to try to run it back. I think the 40 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: bigger stories to me on this one, I like your 41 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: live dog instinct. That's always gonna be mind instinct. The 42 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: bigger story to me on this one is just basically 43 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: the movement in this game. So I remember it opened 44 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: at six and a half right way back in April six. Immediately, 45 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of money come in on the 46 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: Cowboys side, and then it's loaded back to a round 47 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: six and a half. That's where its settled as we 48 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: open camp. And then the da kind of whispers started 49 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: happening about oh maybe he's got a sure sholdier and 50 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: moved to seven. Then all of a sudden he's out 51 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: right and it moves to eight. Well, then now he's 52 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: back in, it moves to seven and a half, and 53 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,399 Speaker 1: then the other day Zack Martin obviously gets announced out 54 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 1: with COVID and moves back to eight. So working safely 55 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 1: say that Zach Martin's worth half a point. At least 56 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: we know that now for sure. From Vegas. I've always 57 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: wondered that with guards another not as much worth as 58 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: much as tackles. But I will tell you this, boys 59 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: and girls, is Zach Martin is worth half a point, 60 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 1: then your guard for whatever your favorite team, it's not 61 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 1: the Cowboys. It's not worth nothing. I'll tell you that 62 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: right now, because that is the only worth half a point. 63 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: It's safe to say your guard is not anything unless 64 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 1: it's Quittin Nelson. It's about it, right, Quittin Nelson. Yeah, 65 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 1: but the only one, you know, because because here's the 66 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: other thing. It got up to nine and a half 67 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: of Caesar's in August August twenty first. That seems really 68 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: really high, really really high. All that had it like that, 69 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: And the only reason why they would have got like 70 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: that is because they just got way too leveraged on 71 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and they needed cowboy money big time to 72 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: come in on the other side of the books to 73 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: get them back leverage. Because you gotta remember, at the 74 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: end of the day, you know, all the books want 75 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: is a basically a net zero risk market. That's all 76 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: they want. That they had fifty percent of the money 77 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: on both sides, that all they want, right, So if 78 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: they get two leverage one one the other, it's some 79 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: you know, they take a two million dollars bet. I'm 80 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: not saying that the happening. If they took a lot 81 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: of money on Tampa Bay, they raise it up so 82 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: they can get everybody that wants to bet. The cowboys, 83 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: they'll come shop them right in town to get that 84 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: money back leverage on the subacy. They don't care to 85 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 1: win or who covers. They just don't want to be liable, 86 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: too liable on one side of the other. Yeah, their 87 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: only goal period. So and I agree, And that's why 88 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: you know, you wonder, well, how do they make money? Well, 89 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: they make money on the juice. That's that's what they're 90 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: making their cash up. You know, they're getting if they 91 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: have two million players at ten bucks. Let's just say 92 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 1: it's one hundred dollar bet at ten bucks a pop. 93 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: I mean, that's a free that is My math is terrible, 94 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: but that's that's like twenty million dollars on two million 95 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: bets at one one hundred and ten a pop that 96 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: they've just pocketed and then they have to do with 97 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: at their dispense. So you wonder how they make money. 98 00:04:55,600 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: They ain't dumb, uh So with father pluckies are not 99 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 1: the smartest guys in the world, but almost all the 100 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: dropped cadalacs and that vigorous is the reason why there 101 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:13,039 Speaker 1: every time, every time, every single time, they're getting at 102 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: least ten percent in the pocket. Um. Okay, So if 103 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: if if you were to take a look at this game, 104 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: do you like the Cowboys plus eight? Do you like 105 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 1: Tampa plus the eight? If you and I don't even 106 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: know if you have this, if you have this on 107 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: your official betting card or not, how do you how 108 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: do you look at this gate? Because I look at 109 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: this and I'm like, all right, you know, Tampa is 110 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: gonna get a little bit over inflated. The Cowboys are 111 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: always gonna get over inflated. So that should be a wash, right, 112 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: Cowboys are always over inflated because they're fan base and 113 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: and the champs are always over inflated. Tom is Tom. 114 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: They're bringing everybody back. Their defense is very good. Cowboys 115 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 1: defense is very bad. We we definitely can't stop their receivers. 116 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: Nobody can stop the Cowboys receivers. Like, let's be fair, 117 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: if Dak is healthy. Uh, and then last year Tampa 118 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 1: was one in five against playoff teams and Tan and 119 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: oh against everybody else, right, and then then they went 120 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: on the run obviously in the playoffs. I think where 121 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: I'm adding in this game, it's it's gonna have to 122 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: come down to what do you really believe, you know, 123 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: is Dak's health And it's not like, in fact, I 124 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 1: understand dak't healthy. I understand he's gonna play football. Understand 125 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: he's gonna play all four quarters. His arms not gonna 126 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: fall off, he's got two legs. I don't mean like healthy, 127 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: not gonna play. I mean the reason why this line moved, 128 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: and the reason why it's not just this line. If 129 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: you look at their season total, you know they were 130 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: at nine and a half wins or down to nine. 131 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 1: If you look at the divisional on they went from 132 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: one twenty minus one twenty five, which is implied like 133 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: fifty five percent win, probably build it for the division. 134 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: They're down to plus one ten. That's down to forty 135 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: five percent implied, you know, probability to win the division. 136 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: So it's not just this game, right, it's not just 137 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 1: the weak one that's moving. It's their season total. It's 138 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: a season long rampifications. And the only reason why that 139 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 1: market would move like that because those longer odds like 140 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: that are sharper markets than probably gained the game, per saying, 141 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: so you get to the super Bowl, that's that's not 142 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: a sharp market at all. But the rest of the 143 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: futures generally are. There's not a lot of public bet 144 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: They don't probably doesn't want to tie their money up 145 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: for you know, six months to wait to collect the bat. 146 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: Maybe maybe not but a lot of sharp money. We'll 147 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: get sided up in them. In fact, it's part of 148 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: their strategy, it's part of our strategy and how we 149 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: get paid a year to years since some of the 150 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: division tools are some of the easiest bets on the board. Honestly, 151 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: So if you're looking at those markets moving, that just 152 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: tells me that the end the Sharp community, you know, 153 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: they are more pessimistic on Dak's overall outlook for the season, right, 154 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: not that he's not going to play that he wants 155 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: to play every game, but there's always going to be 156 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: a scale to how good is somebody, and you gotta 157 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: understand what is the what is the size of that scale? 158 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: Is it that you know, going to be fifty percent 159 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: of what he was? That might be the very very 160 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: bottom of that scale. Chances are he's gonna be way 161 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: better than that, or the scales all the way to 162 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: one hundred. That could be one hundred percent of what 163 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 1: he was before. Again, the chances of that are very 164 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,239 Speaker 1: very slim too. So I doubt he's gonna be fifty percent, 165 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: and you doubt he's ever gonna be one hundred percent again, 166 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: So what is he going to be? Right that ankle 167 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: is seriously repaired. Your body never heals the same it 168 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: did before. Something like that, does it ninety five percent, 169 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: seventy five percent? I don't know. Nobody knows that, right, 170 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: we're not doctors, and I don't think anybody knows that, 171 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,559 Speaker 1: including Dac himself until he gets out on the field 172 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 1: and what he can can't do. But what it's telling 173 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: he is the market is pessimistic overall on what everything 174 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: is building up to, and I think more on the 175 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 1: armpiece of it. People are more pessimistic because you know, 176 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: they called her to baseball injury. They consulted the baseball 177 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: teams well as a has been want to be old 178 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: ball player myself, I know the only time your shoulder 179 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: really gets injured is when your base isn't steady either. 180 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: You know, you've been neglecting your legs, your mechanics get off, 181 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: you have a lower body injury, something like that, and 182 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 1: that puts more of a strain because your body's going 183 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: to do naturally, you know, choppy. If you're gonna set 184 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: that fifteen yard out, you thought it once and you're 185 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: a little short, like I'll do it again and your 186 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: body will cough, You'll make the throw, and he's an 187 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: NFL asked he can make that throw, and he will 188 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: make the throw, but now he can put more strain 189 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 1: on you know, other muscles. He's not used to straining 190 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 1: to do that because maybe his bottom in his score 191 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: is not helping him out. And again that's all, you know, 192 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: maybe maybe not, but definitely the market is leaning to 193 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 1: a more pessimistic on deck. And again not that Dak 194 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: won't be healthy or he won't play or even not 195 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 1: be effective, it's just is he going to be as 196 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: effective because in the team against team like Tampa, you know, 197 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: eight points is a lot of points. But if that's 198 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: not which he's probably not going to be you know, 199 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 1: I don't know if it's enough points. I think at 200 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,079 Speaker 1: this point, to me, I'm either Tampa or Path, and 201 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: I'm probably leaning towards Past just because it's weak one. 202 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: There's no need, no real reason to bet the unknowns 203 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: in week one. But we're gonna learn a lot in 204 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: this first week, and I'm really excited to see what 205 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: Daki capable album with how they looking offense for sure, Yeah, 206 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: if Dak is healthy, uh, you know, and I do 207 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,559 Speaker 1: think that there's a look the ankle will never be 208 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: one hundred percent again like the way it was before. 209 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: But can he play at one hundred percent with it 210 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: the way it is? And I think he probably can't. 211 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 1: Like he's not a long jumper, he doesn't need the 212 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: ankle mobility of like a long jumper. Uh, He's like 213 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: Tom Brady had a ripped up ACL he came back 214 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 1: to one hundred percent. Um. You know, Peyton Manning had 215 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: a neck fusion and I guess he came back to 216 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: one hundred percent one an MVP. So I mean, I guess, 217 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: I guess Aaron Rodgers. I don't remember Aaron Rodgers having 218 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: like a crippling injury like that. Yeah, So I mean 219 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: there's a you know, but he has certainly come back 220 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: to one hundred percent um, So I mean I think 221 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: he can happen. It depends. You know. Chad Pennyson never did, 222 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: but he had a torn rotator cuff, right, and that's 223 00:10:58,040 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 1: that to me is a real issue. So I think 224 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: the Cowboys are a good dog at eight Um. I'm 225 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: gonna bet the dak is one hundred percent. Um. I 226 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 1: don't believe it. If you like, uh, if everybody wants 227 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: to fall shopping, you line to colchis what I will say. 228 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 1: I would bet them now because I do see this 229 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: line moving back to seven and a half before kickoff. 230 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: I think, uh, I think at the very minimum, even 231 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: if it doesn't move to seven and a half, they're 232 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 1: gonna charge you. They're gonna start charging you the you know, 233 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: to get that eight the closer to kickoff. This also 234 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 1: might be a good teaser game for Tampa if you 235 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: want to throw that in there, take it too, you know. Uh, 236 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: that's that's what that's what it's built in for. It's 237 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: made for the NFL and not for college. So yeah, 238 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 1: that's definitely okay. So there's a there's a little Cowboys 239 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: preview for you. We have got an NFL and a 240 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: college preview, uh still to come. This is the Football 241 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: four oh one K. Welcome back to the Football four 242 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: h one K. M R J. Choppy he is bo 243 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: Repka and we've got some really really really good games 244 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: here in the National Football League. Plus how to deal 245 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: with NFL Week one over reactions, because you know you're 246 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: gonna have this between is week one and two and 247 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: we're probably gonna see that in college here when we 248 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: definitely saw it. If you played Week zero but we're 249 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: definitely gonna see it this week in college football. But bo, 250 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: let's take a look at a couple of the games 251 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: that we think the lines are just just a little 252 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: bit off on the first one is Jacksonville minus three 253 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:40,079 Speaker 1: against Houston. Houston is god, what's that word? Awful? And 254 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: and Jacksonville, you know they've I'll be honest with you, 255 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: they've got decent playmakers on the outside. Yeah, they do 256 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: in a quarterback. Maybe we'll see they drafted a quarterback there. 257 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: It is accurate. We'll see how good he is. I'm 258 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 1: not a scout, but all the ones that I know 259 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: or that you know I hear on the radio and 260 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: the TV, that seem to know what they're doing, they 261 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: all think he's gonna be pretty good. So I'll trust 262 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: their judgment on it. But yeah, Jacksonville is minus three 263 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,559 Speaker 1: at Houston. This line is off by three points. That's 264 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: what all things being equal. What I mean by all 265 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 1: being things being equal not being Week one on the 266 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: road for your first NFL starter. Now, in Week eight, 267 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: all things will probably equal this game as a pickle, 268 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: But for now we're getting three points as a home 269 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: dog versus a rookie road starter. Argent in the history 270 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: of the NFL number one overall picks or five twenty 271 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: and one straight up and their first starts as a quarterback. 272 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 1: That's twenty percent winning trend. And you know on this 273 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 1: show we don't bet on outliers, so him winning game 274 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: in Houston would be an absolute historical outline. It is 275 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: hard enough to win betting on football. When you bet 276 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: with the data, you surely don't bet against it, right, So, yes, 277 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: I know Houston is terrible. They're literally the worst team 278 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: in the NFL and they might not win a game 279 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: all season, but if they do, it is going to 280 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: be this game, just like Jacksonville last year, which we'll 281 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: get to in a minute, and then the week one overreaction. Yeah, 282 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: they Houston is starting out ranks where we had Jacksonville 283 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: last year preseason ranks. Jackson ended up being the worst 284 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: team in the league, and Houston will be the same. However, 285 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: Week one is Week one, and this line is too much, okay, 286 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: so repeat that line. Number one picks at quarterback have 287 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: won five games in the on the road in their opener, 288 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: just their opening game period. They've won five opening games 289 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: period in the history of the NFL. First start if 290 00:14:54,560 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: you number one overall, PIX five twenty and one. Wow. Yeah, 291 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: so not and again Traylor Lawrence could go out there 292 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: and lose and stink and everybody wants to bury him, 293 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: but it's just par for the course, Like everybody's going 294 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: to overreact either way. If he goes there and blows 295 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: him out by four touchdowns, he makes me look like 296 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: an idiot. A's gonna say, oh, this is the greatest 297 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: thing ever. If he goes out there and those four picks, 298 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: he's gonna be, you know, the next Ryan Leaf. Neither 299 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: of it means either one of those things. So that's 300 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: just how we do in football. We overreacted everything, especially 301 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: week for them again and we'll get to that in 302 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: a minute. But yeah, this line is so Tyrod Taylor 303 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: to Shaun Watson. That's six points downgrade. Right. Last year 304 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: this game in Houston was Houston minus six and a half, 305 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: So that would be Houston minus half a point. And 306 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: then they're getting another point this year that you didn't 307 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: get last year for home field, So to be really 308 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: one and a half now, if you want to say, 309 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence on Hope alone is one and a half 310 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: point upgraded from Gardner minshew, fine, I'll give it to you. 311 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: That makes it an even game, right there. These three 312 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: points are our three points, and Houston should take full 313 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: advantage of this. So this line is off by three points. Yeah, 314 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: because if if Deshaw was playing, there's no way this 315 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: is a pick him. No, it's Houston minus three. Actually, 316 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: be Houston minus probably three and a half, but we'll 317 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: say three just to be safe. Yeah, So if Deshaw 318 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: was playing, it'd be Huston wish. There's no way, There's 319 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: no way. So I totally agree with you on that one. 320 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: I do think though, maybe that they're giving Tyrode too much. 321 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: I don't know. This is an interesting one, I would be. 322 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: My initial reaction is to take Jacksonville here. I'm sorry, 323 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Let me back to if I don't crack myself. 324 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: If Shaan Watson was playing, be Houston minus six, excuse me, 325 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: not minus three minus six. It would be minus three 326 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: from when the winth the line is now, all things 327 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: being equal, with the line should be if Watson in there, 328 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: they would be six point favorites. M okay, very good, 329 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: Kansas City minus six against Cleveland Kansas City minus So 330 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: I'm puzzled by this one because there's an upgrade downgrade 331 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,239 Speaker 1: situation here that I don't quite understand. Like last year 332 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 1: in the playoffs, Cleveland was a seven and a half 333 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: point dog in Kansas City now at six, So where 334 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: did that extra point and a half go? Like? Did 335 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: Cleveland get better on defense? Because they stunk last year? 336 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: I didn't see him get any better this year this offseason. 337 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: Did Baker grow three inches on us? I didn't. I 338 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: didn't see that in any of the commercials or anything 339 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 1: he does, so I didn't hear about that. Now, I 340 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,679 Speaker 1: do understand the Kansas City offensive line situation. If you're 341 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: gonna tell them if they dropped the point and a 342 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 1: half for that, I guess I would argue with you 343 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: too much. But I think that's extreme considering the replacement 344 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: level that these guys that they've got. I mean, they 345 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: brought guys back to COVID, They you know, invested money 346 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: in guys and from every and again, I'm not a Scout, 347 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: I'm not a talent guy. I just know numbers. But 348 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: all the talent guys in Scout and everybody I listened to, 349 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 1: they all say, these offices, linman, are you gonna be 350 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 1: just as good as the ones that they lost last 351 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: year in Kansas City. So if we're talking about the 352 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: same office of one again, I'm not sure what what happens. 353 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: Is it because they think it's going to take a 354 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: few games to come together. I mean maybe, But my 355 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: main hang up is this is not only am I 356 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: getting Kansas City at a discount of price, which is 357 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: first of all, you never get pash mahomes discount of price, 358 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: so you know that's that's value in and of itself. 359 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 1: But nobody plays September shoppy ats like coach Andy Reid 360 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: last year. You know, we kept saying from about out 361 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: about the midway point that Kansas City wasn't covering spreads, 362 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: and we kept reminding everybody on this program that if 363 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 1: you don't cover spreads overall, you're not gonna win the 364 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Right, one team in twenty years has done it, 365 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: and Kansas City finished nine and nineteen ats last year, 366 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 1: which is terrible. However, three of those nine wins were 367 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: in September, a fact, Chopp he's since twenty eighteen. Andy 368 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: Reid is ten and two as in the first month 369 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: of the season, just like he's fantastic off the buy. 370 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: He is fantastic to open seasons. He doesn't just win, 371 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: he covers, and he covers big. So swallowing lesson a 372 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 1: touchdown here at home seems pretty tasting to me, especially 373 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: seeing how aware of a dog Cleveland is lining up 374 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 1: to be with everybody wanting to line up to bet 375 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: on them, Well, lots the so called experts, you know, 376 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 1: lining up to take them at a premium prize. You're 377 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 1: taking Cleveland a premium price, and you're getting Kansas City 378 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: on the discount. I'll take the better coach and the 379 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: better quarterback on the discount of price. Every single time. Yea, 380 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: this one is winking at me. It's up there on 381 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: the board. It's winking. That's what it's doing. There's there's 382 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: I'm not and I'm taking the bat. I'll take Kansas 383 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 1: City with you right there. Okay, Um, after this week 384 00:19:55,320 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: is over, we are going to see the biggest This 385 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 1: is the biggest swing of the year. Nothing will get you, 386 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: I think, in a better position to really take advantage 387 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: of casinos or Vegas in general, or whatever your whatever 388 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: your book is. Then the week one overreaction, how do 389 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 1: you how do you handle these That's a great point 390 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: to take advantage because here one is these guys have 391 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: to set a marketplace to with the market to win 392 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 1: to bear and the public will drive this market just 393 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 1: crazy after this week. So it's going to take a 394 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: few weeks for you know, the books to get back 395 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: in line. And because of that, it is really a 396 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 1: sharp's going to paradise for the next few weeks after 397 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: week one. So for example, what we're talking about, or 398 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: what just for example, how this works, So what you 399 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:56,400 Speaker 1: want to do as the players, do not overreact because 400 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 1: the market will do that for you. The best example 401 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,239 Speaker 1: is last year we talked about Jacksonville Week one. Right 402 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: now we get thanks Jacksonville plus the seven versus Indie. 403 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 1: We didn't call that they were going to win, but 404 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 1: they did win. And because of that, well, Indie, because 405 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: the public knew how terrible Jacksonville was supposed to be, 406 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 1: Indy loses to them. Indie gets downgraded so badly by 407 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: the public in the marketplace that the books have to 408 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: set the line so low at such a discount of price. 409 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: Indie covered the next three straight games by combined thirty 410 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 1: four and a half points above at s expectations, not 411 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 1: just total points above spread plus thirty four and a 412 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: half points, So in other words, they beat Vegas by 413 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: over ten points a game because the public saw them 414 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: lose Week one to the worst team in football. And 415 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 1: on the flip side of that, jacksonvill who was supposed 416 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:54,679 Speaker 1: to be the worst team in football, which by the way, 417 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: they were the worst team in football. Then the game 418 00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:00,880 Speaker 1: they went off season. But because of that Week two, 419 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: they covered that game and then they didn't cover again 420 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: for another six weeks because the public's like, oh, these Jacksonvillage, 421 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: they're scrappy, they got something as Gardner minshew, he's funny, 422 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: let's look at him. Let's set them, let's and they 423 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: became a darling the public darling dog for the next 424 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: six weeks. They didn't cover the game again for six weeks. 425 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 1: Easton on that side of it, but again, if you 426 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: know where to get in after this week one, really 427 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: bad teams are gonna play really good football games, really 428 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: good football teams. And he was really good football team 429 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: last year, good until after Week one, right, but our 430 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 1: ratings going into the season, you have to trust your feelings, 431 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 1: what you think is going to happen, and then you 432 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 1: get you cannot straight too much from your data. You 433 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: know you have to adjust it, but it has to 434 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 1: be distributed property properly, your adjustments to all season long, 435 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: and waited properly. And if you don't know what I'm 436 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 1: talking about right now, or you have no clue or 437 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: don't have power writing, just hit me up on Twitter 438 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: at FGH Vegas and I'll feel you in. So don't 439 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: worry about that part of it. But that's the number 440 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: one lessons. Do not overreact to week one. Then market 441 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: will do that for you. Where your job as a 442 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: player is to come in and take advantage of the 443 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: overreaction or underreaction of the entire marketplace, which is it's nuts. 444 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 1: After the first week, it's so much fun. It is. 445 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: It is a ton of fun. I think you can 446 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 1: really take advantage of things between this week, between Week 447 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: one a week two. To me, it's it's so my 448 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,880 Speaker 1: two favorite betting weekends of the entire year Sweet sixteen, 449 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: because you have an idea of how the teams are 450 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: playing in the nWay Tournament and then week two of 451 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 1: the NFL season. Those are my two favorite weeks of 452 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: the year to bet on, and then the NFL playoffs. 453 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 1: I think you could. I think I have a really 454 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 1: good idea when those come around too, so we will 455 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 1: get into college football. We got our pizza money parlay 456 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: as we do every week, and our best bets in 457 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,719 Speaker 1: college football. I'm ur J Chappy. He is bow Repka 458 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 1: at FGH Vegas on Twitter. This is the football four 459 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,959 Speaker 1: O one K Honey, big news. Gary? Are you okay? Oh? 460 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 1: I'm not Gary anymore. I'm Jackie Flash. What see? 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Stetson didn't 480 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 1: just protect him from what life through at him, It 481 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: projected a rugged, unstoppable spirit. Stetson hats are still American, 482 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: made with pride. Right here in Texas. There's still the 483 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: unofficial crowd of all self respecting cowboys, and Stetson is 484 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: proud to be on the field with America's team. Find 485 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 1: a retailer nearest you at Stetson dot com slash Cowboys. 486 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,239 Speaker 1: There's nothing as unique as our eyes, which is why 487 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 1: SLOR pioneers ways to make lenses as unique as you. 488 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: Varilux were super sharp vision, essential blue for protection, and 489 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 1: resolved for freedom from glare. Three cutting up solutions in 490 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 1: a single unique lens. So whatever your needs, insist on 491 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: selor visit your local SLOR expert and find a perfect 492 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: lens for you. Seymore, Do more the Lord Back to 493 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 1: football four oh one K. Welcome back to the football 494 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: four oh one K. I'm rch Choppy at RJA Choppy 495 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 1: on Twitter. That is fou Repka at f G h 496 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,640 Speaker 1: Vegas on Twitter. On the little bird tweet tweet Little 497 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: Birdie tweet tweet tied out a little college football. We've 498 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: already had weeks zero, We've already had week one. Week 499 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: zero is really awful. Hey. First off, what stood out 500 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: to you last week in Week one of college football? Man? 501 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: Just the lack of dominance by Oklahoma I thought was 502 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: pretty telling as a thirty point favorite and you got 503 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 1: the then you shifted to your home stadium, right the 504 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: other team was in total disarray and yet they come 505 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 1: in and really hang with you and give a football game. 506 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: And since the rat was he was the odds on favorite, 507 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: which always, you know, makes my ears perk up for 508 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 1: the hidsman, I mean, he's not gonna be odds on 509 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: favorite play like that, I can mission. So that was 510 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 1: it was pretty telling. And then uh, you know, you 511 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 1: and I were texted back and forth on Clemson difference 512 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: between Lawrence to uh, you know the kids that's starting now. Yeah, 513 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: See that's why you're professional. Uh about four points is 514 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,159 Speaker 1: what I said before the game. That's for I was like, 515 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: I think said like I might be a little bit 516 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 1: more than four points because they're good. Yeah, that was 517 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 1: that was not good by Uh. I just called him dju. 518 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,880 Speaker 1: But I think it's Uey young la Oui young l Lay. Yeah. 519 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 1: Easy for me to say, Hey, look, all I know 520 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 1: is my guys, my Tennessee balls did not cover um 521 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 1: and we're we're a two point dog to Pitt. That's 522 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: all you need to know about the state of Tennessee 523 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 1: football is that we're a two point dog to pit. 524 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 1: That'd get me worse. Okay, a couple of games for you, 525 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: then the pizza money parlay um Texas. So this is 526 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 1: an interesting one. Last week I think you had Texas 527 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 1: minus the night, did you not. I believe we did, 528 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 1: And then they had there were a nine point favorite 529 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 1: against the Rage of Cajuns of you La La, right, 530 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: you la La. Now they are taking on the raise 531 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 1: our Backs of Arkansas and it is a six and 532 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 1: a half point spread. The Texas Longhorns are a six 533 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,119 Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. They had a really good 534 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 1: show in a week one you like Texas week two 535 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 1: by a six and a half. Yeah, I just don't 536 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 1: understand this line at all. I mean Texas should be 537 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 1: favored by four team on the road here. I mean 538 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: Texas did nothing but upgrade themselves last week after they 539 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: eventually handily beating a really good team choppy and you 540 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: La law, that team is probably not gonna lose another 541 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 1: football game, they don't think the os. Meanwhile, Arksas scuffled, 542 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: you know, with the Rise team. You know that is 543 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 1: even in one of the top one hundred teams in 544 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 1: the country. Now they did eventually, you know, cover and 545 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 1: handle them two. So I'm not trying to poop who 546 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 1: Arkansas's win, but the matter in which they had to 547 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 1: win getting three turnovers, right, it's not gonna happen against Texas. 548 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 1: They're not gonna run for four hundred yards against Texas. 549 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: And we don't use transient properties to handicap games. You 550 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 1: shouldn't do that if you actually want to win. But 551 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,240 Speaker 1: the top this is one of those styles make fight 552 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 1: type comparison right, And Arkansas needs to be able to 553 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: run the ball to be successful. And Texas, even when 554 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: they were in great last year defensively, they did finish 555 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: twenty seventh against the run, and they started off strong 556 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 1: again last Saturday, holding UL a lot of just two 557 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: point six yards per carry. So I also like the 558 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: play that I saw in Texas quarterback. He did have 559 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 1: some freshman moments right that he needs to iron out. 560 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 1: But going into an sec environment for a second game, 561 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a tough challenge. I think that's why 562 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 1: we're getting in the discount price. But overall, I just 563 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 1: think I see Arksas having two hard of a time 564 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 1: scoring the football through the airs. They're not gonna be 565 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 1: able to run if they get behind, so they're gonna 566 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 1: have to try to score together. It's not their thing. 567 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna say hook them on Saturday. All right, 568 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: the Texas Longhorns, mind a six and a half against Arkansas. 569 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: How about Georgia Southern. They are a seventh point dog 570 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: to Florida Atlantic. This is not Lane Kiffins Florida Atlantic 571 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: Owls or whatever this is. This is This is not that. 572 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 1: This is Georgia Southern just getting seven points. Do you 573 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: like Georgia southerns like FAU to cover this one? Love 574 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 1: Georgia Southern here They're getting undervalued because of a lackluster 575 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 1: Week one performance and that overreaction thing against Gardner Webb. 576 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:23,959 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, they were controlled 577 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: the game the whole time. They were getting some young 578 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 1: guys in, they were getting some seniors in to deserve 579 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 1: some pt right, so they didn't up blowing them out. 580 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 1: But they did handle them, you know, quite easily. You know, 581 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic did just get beat but they did cover 582 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 1: against Florida backdoors. That stung for sure, but that gave 583 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 1: him a slot upgrade. But that that my issue is 584 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 1: that spread was twenty three points of Florida and they 585 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 1: backdoored it. Well, it would only be twenty two Florida 586 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: played Georgia Southern. So somehow we're getting a downgrade here 587 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: for Georgia Southern gonna be plus seven at Florida Atlantic, 588 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,720 Speaker 1: a team that they're better than. Anyway, I don't understand 589 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: this line. Again, I love Georgia Southern. Here in Georgia Southern. 590 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 1: A couple of fun facts about them. They own the 591 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: state of Florida. In fact, the last time they went 592 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 1: to the state of Florida, who was twenty fourteen, they 593 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 1: beat Florida in Florida. They haven't lost the game in 594 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 1: the state of Florida since like two thousand and three. 595 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: So Georgia Southern going to Florida play any school they 596 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,960 Speaker 1: don't care. They also own a Conference USA. They are 597 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: seventeen and nine straight up all time versus Conference USA, 598 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: And they're also ten and six and their last sixteen 599 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: non conference games ATS. On the flip side of that, 600 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic the same time frame four and nine ATS, 601 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: and they're non conference games. That's only thirty one percent. 602 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,040 Speaker 1: That's pretty terrible Coupling all that, but the fact that 603 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 1: they're agreement across correlated all of our algorithms, and yeah, 604 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 1: we're just getting the better team in seven points, we're 605 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 1: gonna say, go Eagles, all right, go Georgia Southern. And finally, 606 00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: one of my favorites every single week, the Pizza money parlay. 607 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: Oregon plus fourteen and a half, Georgia Southern plus two 608 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: twenty five of the money line, and then Buffalo without 609 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: their coach Lance who has moved on to Kansas where 610 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: they rushed the field against what South Dakota a couple 611 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 1: of weeks ago. Buffalo plus four thirty on the money line. 612 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 1: I'm intrigued by the Oregon number. I think the Oregon 613 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 1: number is interesting because it's beyond the two touchdowns, Like 614 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 1: it's a great number for a dog, at least you 615 00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: would think it is. But beyond that, you know, this 616 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 1: is kind of the team where like you know, the 617 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 1: up the fun up start gets a little bit of 618 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 1: love and then the old dog got the block, the 619 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 1: big boy just smacks him down into into reality and 620 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: wins by thirty five points. Like I could really see 621 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 1: that happening. Yeah, I mean, I can't go it either way. 622 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 1: This is our fun. That's the fun part, right. This 623 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 1: is the pizza money parlay. Like Toub said beginning, it's 624 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 1: pizza money. So whatever your pizza money is, you and 625 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: your boys having pizza. You can only throw five on it. 626 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 1: We guess what, it's a five dollar parlor for you. 627 00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 1: If you can throw ten on it. If you're the 628 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: guy you know, just got the good job, you're throwing 629 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 1: twenty on it. It's twenty dollar parlory. Whatever it looks like. Right, 630 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,080 Speaker 1: So whatever your pizza money is, that's what it is. 631 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: It's for fun, but choppy. This three game parlay pays 632 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: you thirty one to one. Thirty one. We're coming out swinging, 633 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 1: baby swinging. If we hit this one, we're set for 634 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,600 Speaker 1: the whole year. So we are coming out swinging on 635 00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 1: this three game. Now, your normal three game probably only 636 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 1: pays you six to one. That's because the books are 637 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,520 Speaker 1: like you scam, which, first of all, the reason when 638 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 1: we put this in here parlays our suckers bet right. 639 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,440 Speaker 1: You should just be doing it for fun. If they're 640 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,640 Speaker 1: part of your normal betting strategy, you're doing it wrong. 641 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 1: But if you want to have some fun, this is 642 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: why we do it. But give you some live dogs, 643 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: well we think you're live dogs. Sometimes longer odds, sometimes 644 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 1: shorter odds, but a little bit of money, have some fun. 645 00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 1: Because again it's a sucker's bet anyway, but you might 646 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 1: as well try to get paid a big time. If 647 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 1: you're gonna play the lottery, choppy, you might as well 648 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,040 Speaker 1: play the lottery, you know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, 649 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 1: look I love it. I mean the Buffalo plus four thirty, 650 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 1: the Georgia Southern plus two twenty five. Those are huge, 651 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,800 Speaker 1: huge dogs, man, I mean we're not you know, you 652 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,880 Speaker 1: would never I mean, do you even Let's just go, like, 653 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,360 Speaker 1: I know, this is college, so you'll see this at college. 654 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: Do you ever see a plus four thirty in the NFL, 655 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 1: not unless it's live betting, right, you would see plus 656 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 1: three something. Maybe maybe that'd be Jacksonville against Kansas City 657 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 1: plus three fifty. Check back on Houston around week ten, 658 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,280 Speaker 1: and when they go to Cleveland they might be about 659 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: plus three hundred. Yeah that might because I think I 660 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 1: saw the look headline on that they were like sixteen 661 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:47,920 Speaker 1: point dogs. Yeah, yes, yes, okay, there we go. Taxa 662 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 1: spight to six. Georgia Southern plus seven. Those are regular 663 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,720 Speaker 1: straight up bets, well, single game bets and your pizza 664 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 1: money parlay. Just ten bucks, that's what we're doing. That's 665 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 1: what I'm doing. Ten bucks Oregon plus fourteen and a 666 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,640 Speaker 1: half Georgia Southern money line plus T twenty five Buffalo 667 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,360 Speaker 1: money line plus four thirty ten dollars will get you 668 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: three and wow, Wow, what a day, what a show? Greatness? 669 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 1: All right, Bo, thank you man. This has been a 670 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:20,880 Speaker 1: fantastic NFL Week one edition of the Football four oh 671 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 1: one K. I am RJ Choppy. You can find me 672 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 1: at r J Choppy on Twitter. Bo where can we 673 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:30,920 Speaker 1: find it? At fgh Vegas on Twitter. You can also 674 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 1: find us at the Football Gloryhole dot com and our podcast, 675 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 1: the FGH Podcast. Anywhere and I mean anywhere do you 676 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 1: find podcasts? All right, that'll do it for us on 677 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 1: this week one edition of NFL Week one edition of 678 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,359 Speaker 1: The Football four oh one K Talk to you next week. 679 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 1: I'm r J Choppy. He is bo Repka see latter 680 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:51,640 Speaker 1: boys and girls. Let's win some money.