1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Blots podcast. 3 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 3: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. 5 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 2: Joe, have you ever met anyone at a party and 6 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 2: you start, you know, you ask them the standard question 7 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 2: what it is that they actually do? Yeah, and you 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 2: just get a response that kind of blows your mind. 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: It's something that you've never even thought of before. 10 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 3: First of all, can I say my favorite question at 11 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,599 Speaker 3: parties is what do you do? I've heard that. 12 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: I know some people look down at. 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 3: Ask me about my hopes and dreams. I don't care. 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 3: I don't care. I don't care. I want to know 15 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 3: what you do. No, I do like, oh, where do 16 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 3: you live? Whatever? 17 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 4: Who? 18 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 3: I want to know what you do? I mean, look, 19 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 3: in some instances, maybe people don't want to talk about it, 20 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 3: but I figure people devoted big chunk of their lives 21 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 3: to work. That's a pretty good icebreaker. So we need 22 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 3: to renormalize that absolutely. And as podcast hosts were always 23 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 3: looking for interesting people. 24 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: That's right, and sometimes you meet them at parties. This 25 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 2: person that we're going to be speaking to, we actually 26 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 2: met at our party our ten year anniversary party. Someone 27 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 2: else brought them and I was introduced to him and 28 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 2: I said, what is it that you actually do? And 29 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: the answer that came back was I was NASA's first 30 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: chief economist. 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 3: Amazing, sold have you ever heard of that before? I 32 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: would I would have not. I mean no, I definitely 33 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 3: would have never heard of that before. I mean, I 34 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 3: guess I'm not surprised in some sense. I'll say the 35 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 3: one sense that I'm not surprised that NASA had a 36 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 3: chief economist, which is like economists seemed to sort of 37 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 3: be in every organization these days. They have a lot 38 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 3: of tools and their toolkit that can be applied to 39 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: a lot of things. They're pretty good with statistical analysis, 40 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: et cetera. 41 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: But then also, you know, but this is stats in space. 42 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 3: Well, then the other thing is, you know, you know 43 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 3: that there's growing interest in the commercial applications in space, 44 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 3: and so satellites are another r one area obviously defends 45 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 3: people talk about asteroid mining. I don't know if we'll oversee 46 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 3: that in our lifetimes, but I know that there's the 47 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 3: thing people are interested in. So although I would not 48 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 3: have necessarily thought it, you know, so I guess I'm 49 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 3: not totally surprised that NASA's like, all right, let's bring 50 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 3: it an economist in well. 51 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 2: I was pretty surprised. I guess I'd never thought about 52 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 2: it yet. I never thought of But it turns out 53 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: that not only does this role exist, but it sits 54 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 2: at the sort of intersection of I guess a lot 55 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 2: of public and private investment space exploration. And we've talked 56 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,399 Speaker 2: about this before, this idea that NASA has perhaps been 57 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 2: seeding a lot of territory in many ways to private 58 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 2: capital SpaceX especially, we've done tons of industrial policy episodes 59 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 2: at this point and what the benefits are of government 60 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: investment versus again, private capital. And so I'm very excited 61 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 2: to talk space economics. 62 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: But do it the. 63 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 2: Perfect guest we're going to be speaking with Alex McDonald. 64 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 2: He served as NASA's first chief economist, as I said, 65 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 2: and he is now a senior associate at the Aerospace 66 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 2: Security Project at CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Alex, 67 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 2: thank you so much for coming on all thoughts. 68 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:17,679 Speaker 4: Thank you so much. It's a pleasure to be here. 69 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 3: Thanks for coming to our partner, Yes too, party, I 70 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 3: enjoyed it. 71 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 2: Thank you so excellent, So obvious question. First, I suppose 72 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: what does a chief economist at NASA actually do. 73 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 4: So, the position of chief Economist is essentially one of 74 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 4: the three independent technical advisors to the administrator. I'll point 75 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 4: out that all three of those positions were basically canceled 76 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 4: at the beginning of this Trump administration, but they had 77 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 4: been essentially people who'd be brought into the agency to 78 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 4: advise the administrator on technical issues related to economics Chief economist, 79 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 4: Technology chief technologist, and science chief scientist. These are not 80 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 4: positions that are responsible for implementing programs. They are essentially 81 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 4: independent technical advices to the head of NASA. NASA is 82 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 4: a twenty five billion dollar agency. It has ten different 83 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 4: centers across the US, it has international partnerships, and of 84 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 4: course it has an extensive amount of contract for the 85 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 4: private sector. And so the role of the chief Economist 86 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,679 Speaker 4: is essentially to advise the administrator of NASA on whatever 87 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 4: the administrator of NASA needs advice on. But it tends 88 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 4: to be related to what are the markets that we're seeing, 89 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,679 Speaker 4: What level of investment can we expect in a given sector. 90 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 4: Has this company actually raised money or are they perhaps 91 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 4: maybe misrepresented? These are all questions that come up in 92 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 4: procurement and in strategy. I started at NASA in two 93 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 4: thousand and eight, so that was when the Space Shuttle 94 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 4: was still flying. We were beginning to think about partner 95 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 4: with the private sector. SpaceX had received its first essentially 96 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 4: contract from NASA, but it had not launched anything to 97 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 4: space yet. So as you can imagine, over the last 98 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: fifteen plus years, the role of the private sector has 99 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 4: become very significant within NASA's portfolio, and as a result, 100 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 4: economic analysis became one of the types of internal services 101 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 4: that essentially the senior leadership at NASA decided they needed. 102 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: That was fantastic, just real quickly backing up even further, 103 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: how did why you in that role? What were you 104 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 3: doing prior to that role such that you got brought 105 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 3: in for this? 106 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 4: So for me, space economics was a real passion. I 107 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 4: remember very distinctly two thousand and five when I was 108 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 4: a master's degree student in economics up at the University 109 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 4: of British Columbia and Canada, and I remember two things 110 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 4: that happened that year. One was the flight of Spaceship one. 111 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 4: This was the first privately funded, privately built spacecraft to 112 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 4: take humans above the Von Carmen line above one hundred kilometers, 113 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 4: which is the kind of international definition of where space starts. 114 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 4: And I remember, as an economist kind of saying, that's unusual. 115 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 4: How long have we been building our own spacecraft and 116 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 4: doing that with private money. That started my PhD into 117 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 4: the long run economic history of space exploration. That became 118 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 4: my first book called the Long Space Age, essentially on 119 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 4: the economic history of where the money came from for 120 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 4: astronomical observatories. And when you look at that, one will 121 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 4: find some very interesting parallels. For example, the people who 122 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 4: built the largest telescopes in the early twentieth century. These 123 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 4: are the Mount Wilson and Mount Palamar observatories. They were 124 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 4: funded by Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller, the two 125 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 4: richest people in America at the time. Sound familiar. So 126 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 4: this was a type of parallel that a number of 127 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 4: us were starting to think about in terms of how 128 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 4: are we going to get new money onto the table 129 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 4: to advance our objectives in space exploration. And then the 130 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 4: second thing that happened in two thousand and five was 131 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 4: essentially the announcement of what was then called the Vision 132 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 4: for Space Exploration, and this was the George W. Bush 133 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:49,480 Speaker 4: Era plan to return to the Moon, build a moon base, 134 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 4: and ultimately use the capabilities to autavirus. And that basically 135 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 4: told me that eventually we're going to need economists in 136 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 4: space because if you're building a permanent habitat somewhere else 137 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 4: outside of Earth, Yes, that's the technology problem. Yes it's 138 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 4: an engineering problem. It is also an economic development problem. 139 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 4: You're going to need to think about where the revenue 140 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 4: source is going to come for this, Where might you 141 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 4: see cost savings for new types of technologies? And so 142 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,239 Speaker 4: I had decided to go pursue space economics as a field. 143 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 4: Did my PhD in that. I used to joke that 144 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 4: once you do a PhD in the economics of space exploration, 145 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 4: there's nowhere else that can really employ you other than NASA. 146 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 4: These days, that's not quite the case. These days, there's 147 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 4: such a growth in venture capital and private equity investment 148 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 4: in space that actually it's a bit of a booming field, 149 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 4: to be honest. So I started my work at NASA 150 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 4: Ames's Research Center. So this is one of NASA's ten 151 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 4: centers out in Silicon Valley, and I was brought out 152 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: there to essentially start doing some of the economic analysis 153 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 4: related to venture capital, how do we leverage these private companies? 154 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 4: And essentially, as I did my work, I started managing 155 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 4: some of the programs related to encouraging commercial space development. 156 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 4: Made my way to Washington, d C. With kind of 157 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 4: these experiances that it had in Silicon Valley, working with 158 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 4: some of the investors and some of the startup founders, 159 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 4: found my way to the Office the Administrator and during 160 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,239 Speaker 4: the first up administration that was when the chief Economist 161 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 4: position was created. 162 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 2: I have so many questions already, and I'm already struggling 163 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 2: to choose a particular path to go down because there 164 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 2: are so many. But one thing that stood out to 165 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 2: me just then, you know, you talked about the sort 166 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 2: of history of space exploration and the idea that you 167 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 2: had these very rich industrialists who are funding the early 168 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 2: stages of I guess astronomy and observatories. At what point 169 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 2: did the US flip into more of a government funded 170 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 2: model for space exploration and how did that actually happen. 171 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question, and I think it's instructive 172 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 4: to think about kind of how do we develop the 173 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,199 Speaker 4: capabilities to go in space in the first place. So 174 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 4: the history of astronomical observatories in the US really begins 175 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 4: with these wealthy funders, and there's a mix of motivations. 176 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 4: I break it down to these two types of motivations. 177 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 4: One are signaling motivations and economics. Signaling theory is the 178 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 4: idea that you can credibly transmit information by costly action. Right. 179 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 4: This is kind of how you know something about someone 180 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 4: when they're driving a Lamborghini versus you know, say, a 181 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 4: Ford Pinto. Right, you have some information about the individual 182 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 4: even if you know nothing else. Similar with education. The 183 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 4: classic signaling product that I can think of, though, is 184 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 4: if you know that one country has launched something around 185 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 4: Earth and another country has not, you know something about 186 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 4: the technical capacities of that country. Very similar in terms 187 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 4: of astronomical observatories. These were very complex projects. They were 188 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 4: about billion dollar projects if we do the kind of 189 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 4: inflation adjusted metrics today, and so the wealthiest people did 190 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 4: these things. Fast forward to the nineteen twenties and thirties 191 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 4: when the technology for liquid fuel rocketry is being developed. 192 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 4: This year is actually the one hundredth anniversary of the 193 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 4: first flight of a liquid fuel rocket by Robert Goddard. 194 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 3: That's why we did this episode. It was all time 195 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 3: for one hundred year anniversary. 196 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 4: That's right, I always love it, Unsentiary, you know, thanks 197 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 4: for that. So he's working on this technology because he 198 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 4: wants to be able to go to space. He receives 199 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 4: the vision of space expiation by reading science fiction when 200 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 4: he's a teenager. He reads a War of the World's 201 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 4: in his local newspaper, and then a sequel to it, 202 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 4: an unauthorized sequel called Edison's Conquest of Mars, And he 203 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 4: actually writes in his diary about a vision that he 204 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 4: had while trimming a cherry tree on his aunt's farm, 205 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 4: and he decides that he's going to dedicate the rest 206 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 4: of his life to space expiation, and every year after 207 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 4: he celebrates what he calls his Cherry Tree Day. So 208 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 4: he's going out into the world trying to figure out 209 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 4: how's he going to get resources for this project, and 210 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 4: it turns out that the largest funder for his early 211 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 4: phases is in fact the Guggenheim family. He manages to 212 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 4: actually convince the Gudheim family to fund this work. But 213 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 4: when the Second World War starts, which is really when 214 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 4: the US government starts to get involved with Rocket Tree 215 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 4: a very significant level he starts working with a number 216 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 4: of the generals and essentially gets funding to develop a 217 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 4: genesis to take off rocket to help planes take off 218 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 4: more quickly, and he starts get funding that way. So 219 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 4: the Second World War is really when governments across the 220 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 4: world really start to get involved with rocketry development, most famously, 221 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 4: of course in Germany, but also in the Soviet Union. 222 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 4: And so after that point, the technology for rocketry is 223 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 4: essentially co evolving as a weapon system and as a 224 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 4: technology for taking humans off of the Earth. That's really 225 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 4: when the US government gets involved. NASA gets created in 226 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 4: nineteen fifty eight after the flight of Sputnik, and then 227 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 4: you have the kind of dual development of essentially the 228 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 4: civil program which is what NASA is, as well as 229 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 4: a Department of Defense programs, and both of them are 230 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 4: roughly kind of equivalently funded for quite some time. 231 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 3: Well, why don't we talk then about the flip side 232 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 3: or the other direction. You mentioned that when you were 233 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 3: at NASA we still had the shuttle program. I've never 234 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 3: understood what I mean, why do we get rid of that? 235 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 3: Like why aren't we still launching shuttles and so forth? 236 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 3: What was the sort of economic logic or national security 237 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 3: logic or whatever such that from the perspective of the government, 238 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,559 Speaker 3: we don't need to keep launching shuttles, and maybe we 239 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 3: can begin the handoff for some of this more directly 240 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 3: into the private sector. 241 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, the Shuttle really 242 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 4: was an incredible vehicle. But of course, as I'm sure 243 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 4: you're familiar, there were a couple of fatal accidents with 244 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,719 Speaker 4: the Space Shuttle, first the Challenger disaster and then the 245 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 4: Columbia accident. So essentially the decision was made after the 246 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 4: Columbia accident that there was no way to make the 247 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 4: vehicle sufficiently safe at a regular rate of flight that 248 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 4: would be economical, and that it was time to move 249 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 4: on to a safer, more economical form of human spaceflight. 250 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 4: What's interesting in many ways with the development of vehicles 251 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 4: like Starship is that the idea originally behind the Space Shuttle, 252 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 4: it was very much the same idea that is now 253 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 4: motivating the development of Starship at SpaceX, low cost, refully 254 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 4: reusable aircraft like operations. You know, that was not ultimately 255 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 4: achieved in the Space Shuttle. You can look back at 256 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 4: the original economic estimates for what NASA thought they would 257 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 4: be able to fly the spatial app and they turned 258 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 4: out to be rather optimistic relative to what was delivered. 259 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 4: We'll see where we get to on Starship, but I 260 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 4: think it's just important to recognize that that it's really 261 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 4: part of the same engineering and economic capability thrust Shuttle 262 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 4: to Starship. It's the same idea, we want low cost, 263 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 4: reusable aircraft like operations so that we can do more 264 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 4: in space. Ultimately, the Shuttle was deemed to be no 265 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 4: longer safe after the Columbia accident. Blue Urban Commission was 266 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 4: kind of fielded, and they decided that it was time 267 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 4: to move on to what then became the commercial crew program, 268 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 4: and that came around at the beginning of the first 269 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 4: Obama administration. At the time, it was very controversial. You 270 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 4: can certainly go back and watch some of the hearings 271 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 4: where you've got people like Neil Armstrong who were arguing 272 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 4: that this is not a good idea for the nation. 273 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 4: At the same time, there was essentially a need within 274 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 4: NASA to figure out how to offload some of the 275 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 4: operational responsibilities for human spaceflight because NASA was seeking to 276 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 4: go back to the Moon and ultimately on to Mars. 277 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 4: One of the things that's defining for NASA's strategic landscape 278 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 4: is its budget history. Budget history is very easy to describe. 279 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 4: It starts in nineteen fifty eight at a relatively low level. 280 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 4: It peaks massively in nineteen sixty five sixty six at 281 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 4: the peak of the PALL program, and then it declines 282 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 4: very significantly until nineteen seventy two, and it has basically 283 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 4: been inflation flat ever since. Our ambitions, however, have not 284 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 4: been inflation flat. Our ambitions continue to increase, and so 285 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 4: as the agency has been figuring out how do we 286 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 4: achieve our ambitions, we figured that we would basically partner 287 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 4: and figure out how to leverage commercial capabilities and private investment. 288 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 3: Have you ever seen the chart of the NASA budget 289 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 3: as a share of the federal budget? It's unbelievable. In 290 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 3: the mid sixties, fought over five percent of the entire 291 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 3: federal government budget, at least according to this chart that 292 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 3: I pulled up on Reddit just now. No, but I'm 293 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 3: pretty sure i've seen this chart before. I think it's 294 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 3: ye right, I think I know the one I mean 295 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 3: to take. A staggering level of the federal government spending 296 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 3: was at one point through NASA and then, of course 297 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 3: it's sort of declined into relative oblivion, but it's kind 298 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 3: of extraordinary. 299 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 2: Well, on this note, Alex, you're talking about NASA's ambitions, 300 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 2: how would you broadly define those, Because it seems if 301 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 2: you say that NASA exists for security and as a 302 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: signal to other countries that we have superior technology to them, 303 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 2: you could justify basically any element of spending as we 304 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 2: seem to have done in the nineteen sixties. But if 305 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 2: you say that we actually want some sort of return 306 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 2: on investment in terms of jobs or i don't know, 307 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 2: some sort of multiplier effect on the economy, then you're 308 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 2: kind of thinking about different things. 309 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 4: Sure, of course, one of the challenges that I always 310 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 4: ran into is that there's this perner request for calculation 311 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 4: on the return on investment, which I always had to 312 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 4: patiently explain that this is not an investment, it's an expenditure. Right, 313 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 4: You can't actually calculate a direct return on an investment 314 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 4: in the way that you can for an actual private 315 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 4: sector investment. You can, however, calculate the economic impact. And 316 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 4: so every two years I would be responsible for the 317 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 4: release of our Economic impact report, and for those curious, 318 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 4: that is the highest level resolution data that NASA releases 319 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 4: publicly about where it spends its money, and it spends 320 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 4: its money across all the fifty states. 321 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, this is famous, right, it has to. 322 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 4: It has to exactly because it is a public it 323 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 4: is a public program. It is there to meet the 324 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 4: needs of the American people as determined by their representatives 325 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 4: in Congress. And so that is a kind of part 326 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 4: of the agency's responsibilities and mission, and its missions are 327 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 4: essentially defined by that combination of congressional mandates and presidential direction, right, 328 00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 4: just like any agency. And so what have been the 329 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 4: consistent requests by Congress and presidents to NASA? Well over 330 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 4: the last forty years, let's take the post Apollo era 331 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 4: and even the post Shuttle era. We are now on 332 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 4: the third attempt to return to the Moon and build 333 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 4: a permanent habitation there. The first was called the Space 334 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 4: Expiration Initiative under George HW. 335 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 5: Bush. 336 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 4: Then it was as I mentioned in the Vision for 337 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:24,719 Speaker 4: Space Expiration under George W. 338 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 5: Bush. 339 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 4: And today we're working on the Artemis program, which I 340 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 4: was intmately involved with, and essentially it is very much 341 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 4: we're using a different strategy now than we've used in 342 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 4: the past, but it was essentially the same interest. There's 343 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 4: only one world relatively nearby, only three days away, that 344 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 4: is the Moon. There's also only one planet nearby that 345 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,160 Speaker 4: you can plausibly land on, that is Mars. I happen 346 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 4: to personally be a big fan of flybys of Venus, 347 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 4: but that's actually kind of pouter intuitively, because it is so. 348 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 2: Important When you say personally, you don't mean that you're, 349 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 2: you know, flying past Venus yourself, right, just in theory. 350 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 4: I'd be happy to, but I don't think I've got 351 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 4: millions for that. But the benefit of Venus is that 352 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 4: it is literally so hot and high pressure that it 353 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 4: is impossible to land on, so it stops both engineers 354 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 4: and politicians from trying to. That's actually a benefit from 355 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 4: a program management perspective sometimes. But anyways, the real goal 356 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 4: continues to be Mars, because Mars you can land on, 357 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 4: and there is increasing signs of potential previous life having 358 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 4: been on Mars. We continue to learn a lot by 359 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 4: our robotic missions there. There's starting to be some very 360 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 4: interesting indications that there may have been a life there 361 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 4: in the past. It's a very interesting world, and of 362 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 4: course NASA also does robotic missions out to the outer planets. 363 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 4: The moons of Saturn and Jupiter are truly some of 364 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,719 Speaker 4: the most incredible objects in the night sky. In our 365 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 4: Solar System. You have moons like Io that have volcanoes, 366 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 4: few lava, hundreds thousands of kilometers above the surface of 367 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 4: these planets. You have worlds that are actually ocean worlds 368 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 4: underneath these massive ice caps, like Europa and Enceladus. Enceladus 369 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 4: has water geysers, so it's actually possible to imagine building 370 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 4: a probe that could just kind of land under one 371 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 4: of these water geysers, open up an aperture, and then 372 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 4: assess what might be in that water. And then one 373 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 4: of my favorites, of course is the moon of Saturn, Titan. 374 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 4: Titan is the only moon that we have that has 375 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 4: an atmosphere. It's actually I can't really see through it, 376 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 4: but it does have lakes, except the lakes are not water, 377 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 4: they're made of methane. And we now have a mission 378 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 4: on the books Dragonfly, which is for me one of 379 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 4: the most exciting missions that NASA is doing, to send 380 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 4: a robotic helicopter to this moon of Saturn and explore 381 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 4: it to learn about this different type of liquid cycle 382 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 4: based on methane rather than water. You know, it's a 383 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 4: fascinating solar system and one of NASA's cormanate is to 384 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 4: explore that. And I could keep going. You've also got 385 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 4: the largest number of Earth scientists employed by one agency 386 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 4: in the world. Huge amount of the climate data that 387 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 4: the world relies on comes from NASA and also responsible 388 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 4: for aeronautics basically search. A lot of the basic research 389 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 4: for fundamental green aviation electric aviation is funded through NASA, 390 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 4: so it has a huge mandate, which is why at 391 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 4: the end of the day, NASA is always looking for 392 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 4: ways to make that tax dollar go farther, leverage partnerships, 393 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 4: leverage private sector investment. 394 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 3: That was great, and I just want to say, like, personally, 395 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 3: I'm very pro going to space. I'm very pro landing 396 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 3: on the Moon. Again, I think it would be really 397 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,239 Speaker 3: cool if in my lifetime someone landed on Mars. I 398 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 3: think it's very cool. But why so if there's going 399 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 3: to be private money invested in this other than the 400 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 3: fact that, okay, maybe there can be a return from 401 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,239 Speaker 3: the private dollars because they're getting public dollars, because they 402 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 3: could do more. From the economists hat is there a 403 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 3: rationale for some of these projects that you see beyond 404 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 3: just this is very interesting and cool. Could it ever 405 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 3: turn into return on an investment? Into classic sense? 406 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,719 Speaker 4: So, the most classic example that I have of where 407 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 4: the economic return came from some of these types of 408 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 4: investments really does come from the Apollo program and the 409 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 4: early rockty development in the nineteen sixties. So during that time, 410 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 4: for about three years, seventy five percent of all global 411 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 4: semiconductor demand came from these rockets. Oh yeah, what does 412 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 4: that mean. It means that this was a technology that 413 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 4: was pushing the boundaries of capability, of technical capability, and 414 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 4: it needed this new thing, the semiconductor, in order to 415 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 4: be effective. That meant that semiconductor manufacturing got to scale 416 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 4: up at a level that it would not otherwise have 417 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 4: probably been able to do based on consumer demand. 418 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 3: If I recall from Chipwar, it was also the fact 419 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,719 Speaker 3: that space was scarce on the Shuttle, and therefore it 420 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 3: helped create the impetus to miniaturize a lot of this technology, 421 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 3: which then unlocked various consumer electronic goods. 422 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,120 Speaker 4: Exactly. The Apollo Guidance computer the other example of that. 423 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 4: So that's exactly right. So when you're pushing the technology 424 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 4: frontiers for this kind of challenging objective like going to 425 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 4: the moon or going to Mars. You do push the 426 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 4: capabilities and that results in, you know, the kind of 427 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 4: famous case for spinoff effects. And if there's one thing 428 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 4: that I would just love to correct is this idea 429 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 4: that spinoff effects are things like tang right, or these 430 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 4: types of more. 431 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 2: Triff worth it. We got tang worth it. 432 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 4: Right, And that's always used as a kind of you know, 433 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,400 Speaker 4: we say, oh, well, yeah, okay, we got some tang 434 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 4: out of it's great. But the reality is, spin off 435 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 4: effects are semiconductors, right. It is really fundamental technologies of 436 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 4: the modern world. Another example of that is you know 437 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 4: the ways in which we now have very advanced space 438 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 4: based internet right. In part this stuff came from a 439 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:54,880 Speaker 4: government demand for rocketry. Right. SpaceX its first major service 440 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 4: was providing the government with cargo to their national space station. Well, 441 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 4: that's a pretty high mass demand. It's not a small 442 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,640 Speaker 4: payload to get Carverard with a space station. You've actually 443 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 4: got to be able to launch a fair bit into orbit. Well, 444 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 4: once you've already established a demand for something that is 445 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 4: high mass, well, what other high mass things can you 446 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 4: launch up into space using your existing infrastructure. Turns out 447 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,640 Speaker 4: the principal demand for SpaceX's rockets are its own products 448 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,920 Speaker 4: right now, Starlink, and that's also part of the plan 449 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 4: for Orbital Data Center. So these are things that emerge 450 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,639 Speaker 4: from pushing the technology from setting really difficult goals. So 451 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 4: there's a real kind of economic truth to that whole 452 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,400 Speaker 4: Kennedy statement. We do these things not because they're easy, 453 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 4: because they're hard. When you do hard things, create new 454 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 4: technology and new capabilities. 455 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 2: Can you extrapolate something like the semiconductor experience to I 456 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 2: guess creating some sort of lunar base because I get 457 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 2: it for semiconductors, we have computers on Earth. That makes sense, 458 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 2: But if you're building a base on the Moon, it 459 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 2: would seem to me that for at least a very 460 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 2: long time, your principal customers are going to be NASA 461 00:23:58,720 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: and maybe the Department of de. 462 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 4: Right and also potentially other international partners. So right now, 463 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,399 Speaker 4: the Artemis base camp as it is being developed, is 464 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 4: imagining participation from for example, Japanese astronauts and European Space 465 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 4: Agency astronauts and Canadian Space Agency astronauts. Actually the US 466 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 4: is committed to landing to Japanese astronauts on the lunar surface, 467 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 4: the first time the US has ever committed to an 468 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 4: international partner landing on lunar surface with it, and we're 469 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 4: now about less than a month away, depending on when 470 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 4: the launch actually happens from Artemis two, the first time 471 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 4: that we've returned to the Moon since nineteen seventy two, 472 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 4: and the very first time ever that a non American 473 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 4: will be on BART for a mission that is leaving 474 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 4: Earth orbit, Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen. And so the international 475 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 4: element is a key part of it as well. I 476 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 4: think the lunar economy is one of the ones that's 477 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 4: going to be a little bit farther down the road. 478 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 4: I think one of the ones that's coming up sooner 479 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 4: is what's called the low Earth orbit economy, and this 480 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 4: refers more to commercial space stations. One of the biggest 481 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,120 Speaker 4: contractual competitions right now is the competition for who will 482 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 4: get the contract for a private space station from NASA. 483 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 4: So NASA already starting in twenty ten, as I mentioned, 484 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 4: privatized commercial human spaceflight with a commercial crew program that 485 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 4: resulted in the SpaceX Dragon capability and the Boeing star 486 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 4: Liner capability. Right now, those vehicles are going to in 487 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 4: their national space station. The plan, however, is to retire 488 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 4: their national space station, the latest state that's been thrown 489 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 4: out being twenty thirty two. After that point there would be, 490 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 4: in theory one or more fully commercially owned space stations. 491 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 4: There are companies that are raising money. A couple of 492 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,120 Speaker 4: them have actually announced one hundreds of million dollars investments 493 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 4: ters in the last couple of weeks. What are they 494 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 4: going to be doing, Well, they'll be hosting NASA astronauts, 495 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 4: They're going to be hosting international astronauts. It's going to 496 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 4: be training, but they're also going to be conducting fundamental 497 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 4: research in microgravity. Microgravity is a very interesting phenomenon because 498 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,439 Speaker 4: not only do you have no gravity, but because you 499 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 4: have no gravity in a pressurized environment, you also have 500 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 4: no convection and that allows for different phenomena than you 501 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 4: see on Earth. So, for example, you're able to grow 502 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 4: crystals larger, You're able to develop things like fiber optic 503 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 4: cables more pure that may increase the transparency of them. 504 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 4: We are still searching one product that we can actually 505 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 4: make in space uficially profitably and make it again and 506 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 4: again and again. We're still in the R and D 507 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,919 Speaker 4: phase and we've been working on it for a long time, 508 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 4: so it may be a while before we see one 509 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 4: of these things. But there is a huge research effort 510 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 4: going on across the world to figure out how do 511 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 4: we leverage the removal of gravity in the production of 512 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 4: many things, and semi conductors is one of the other 513 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 4: areas that we're starting to see a lot of investment, 514 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 4: and so I think that one, I think is easier 515 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,159 Speaker 4: to understand. We are to maintain a zero gravity environment 516 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 4: on Earth pretty close to the source of mass, but 517 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 4: when you're flying around the Earth, you inherently have that property, 518 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,959 Speaker 4: and people are really exploring how we can make new 519 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 4: use out of it and make new products. 520 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,360 Speaker 3: It's going to be an interesting race trace either think 521 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 3: like who is going to make something economical first, sort 522 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 3: of that zero gravity space or anyone in crypto which 523 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,919 Speaker 3: industry will deliver something of economic value first? No, but 524 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 3: for real, so speaking of actual economic value, and you 525 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 3: briefly alluded to it in one of your answers, one 526 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 3: of the things you hear is data centers in outer space, 527 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 3: and you know, like Elon is very bullish on it, 528 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 3: but of course he has a rocket company, so of 529 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,479 Speaker 3: course he would say. So, I can't tell is this 530 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,640 Speaker 3: like just thing that like people on podcasts and Twitter 531 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,439 Speaker 3: like to talk about, or from your perspective, from what 532 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 3: you could tell, is there a real plausibility that given 533 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 3: intense compute demands and I have to imagine it's like 534 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 3: maybe the cooling bills a little lower up there, that 535 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 3: maybe this could be like a real thing. 536 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, obviously one of the currently you know, hot debates 537 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 4: within you know, engineering, economic analysis in space. How much 538 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 4: sense does this make. There's actually been a few folks 539 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 4: who put on really really good calculators online. You can 540 00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 4: kind of look up Orbital Data Center online calculator. And 541 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 4: the profitability of it depends on a number of factors. 542 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 4: What do you assume the launch cost is, how often 543 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 4: do you assume these GPUs are going to fail? How 544 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 4: effective do you assume the radiators are going to be 545 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,200 Speaker 4: for getting rid of the excess heat. There's a lot 546 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 4: of different variables, and given the fact that we don't 547 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 4: have any orbital data centers of scale, it's hard to 548 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 4: know exactly what their profitability is. Going to be I'll 549 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 4: say one of the big obvious benefits is not a 550 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 4: technological one. It is simply that you probably don't need 551 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 4: to go for extensive permits. 552 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 3: That's no, yeah, for real, but it's a real advantage. 553 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 3: There's no space in mbs. Who are about that? 554 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,239 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you may end up depending on how 555 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 4: large these things are and how many of them are 556 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 4: and what kind of what essentially what reflectivity they have. 557 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 4: So one of the things that we're now starting to 558 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 4: see is with constellations size of starlink. These are about 559 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 4: ten thousand satellites in space right The vast majority of 560 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 4: satellites that are in space right now that are operational 561 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 4: are owned and operated by spaces. Ten thousand or so 562 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 4: constellations have now been approved and submitted to the ITU, 563 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 4: and various ones submitted to the FCC. At the million 564 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 4: satellite scale, already a large amount of the night sky 565 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 4: people are very familiar fly over revies satelites. A orbital 566 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 4: data center would be significantly larger and potentially more reflective 567 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 4: than a starlink. So if you've got hundreds of thousands 568 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 4: of these up there, you might start really seeing them 569 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 4: a lot. How much do we care about that, right, 570 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,720 Speaker 4: These are these are kind of social you know, social 571 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 4: public choice issues that you know, we're just starting to think. 572 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 2: About, speaking of stuff that we might be able to see. 573 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 2: Are space elevators plausible at all? This idea that we 574 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 2: could have space elevators instead of rockets to bring stuff up? 575 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 6: I love it. 576 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 4: You know, I haven't had a good space out of 577 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 4: their question for a long time, So thank you. 578 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 2: Maybe that says something about their plausibility, but go. 579 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 4: On, well, you know they're they're they're fun idea, right, 580 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 4: I mean, arth ce Clerk. I mean, it's a beautiful 581 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 4: kind of vision. And as far as I understand that, 582 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 4: they're very reliant on high performance carbon nanotubes and equivalent technologies, 583 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 4: And the joke I've always kind of maintained is, you know, 584 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 4: I will I will wait until we have a bridge 585 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 4: or a swing set made out of carbon nanotubes before 586 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 4: I get too excited, or the space linervator. In order 587 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 4: for them to work, they would need to be about 588 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 4: thirty six thousand kilometers in length, right, because your goal 589 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 4: is to get them into a place where they are 590 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 4: in GEO, somewhere stable. If it's not in GEO, then 591 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 4: it's going to be continually moving around, and you know 592 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 4: that doesn't really work. So it's got to be in 593 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 4: an orbit that is basically staying above the same place 594 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 4: on Earth. That's true synchronous orbit thirty six thousand kilometers away. 595 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 4: These are going to be very long carbonanotubes. 596 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 5: So I'm not planning on that anytime zone. 597 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 2: You know, you're obviously focused on the economics of particular projects, 598 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 2: but I imagine the technology matters as well. How do you 599 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 2: actually evaluate the technology because as outsiders to this space 600 00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 2: space space pun No, I won't do it. I resisted, Joe. 601 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 2: As outsiders to this particular topic, it's very difficult for 602 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 2: us to get a handle on what seems feasible just 603 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 2: in terms of basic physics versus what seems feasible both 604 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 2: in terms of reality and also the money that it 605 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 2: might actually cost. 606 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question. One of the things that 607 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 4: I loved about working at NASA was that, you know, 608 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 4: you're working with some of the smartest people in the world, 609 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 4: and you're all working for the public good, and you're 610 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 4: just trying to figure out, you know, what's the right 611 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,959 Speaker 4: thing to do for the country and the way that 612 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 4: the agency evaluates these types of technologies and projects is 613 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 4: through teams, and you have a team with a number 614 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 4: of different capabilities and skill sets. So you have people 615 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 4: who are very familiar with systems engineering combined with people 616 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 4: with experience in expertise and material sciences, throw in an economist, 617 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 4: throw in a lawyer, and you all as a team 618 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 4: evaluate you know, what is this, what would it take 619 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 4: to make this thing real? You know what benefits would 620 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 4: it have? And you know, you do these types of 621 00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 4: grassroots engineering economics assessments of these projects. And part of 622 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:02,960 Speaker 4: the kind of you know, the joy is that you 623 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 4: tend to do these things dedicated for days, weeks, depending 624 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:07,400 Speaker 4: on how long you know or how serious of a 625 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 4: procurement it might be. But a lot of that kind 626 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 4: of stays kind of behind the behind the door, so 627 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 4: to speak. So we don't put as much of that out, 628 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 4: and when we do, it'll be in these kind of 629 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 4: procurement announcements where you kind of will talk about the 630 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 4: strengths and the weaknesses of a project if you really 631 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 4: want to kind of get a sense of how the 632 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 4: agency does these types of valuations. Next time, there's a 633 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,719 Speaker 4: very big procurement that is coming out of the agency, 634 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 4: like we did for the human landing systems to return 635 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 4: humans lunar surface. Go look at the procurement assessment the 636 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,360 Speaker 4: agency does on the projects. 637 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 2: How long are those assessments typically? 638 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 4: You know, they can be dozens of pages, right, and 639 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 4: they'll get into some of the technical issues. You know, 640 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 4: obviously there's proprietary technology involved, so you know, it's not 641 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 4: like it's it's giving you the kind of you know, 642 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 4: blueprint diagnostics necessarily, but there's a lot of information in them. 643 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 4: And so that's the benefit of having a public agency 644 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:55,960 Speaker 4: like MASS is that it does have to actually put 645 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 4: out these types of assessments publicly. 646 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 3: Wait, are we really sending Pew back to the Moon 647 00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 3: next month? 648 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 4: We are sending people back to the Moon in a flyby? 649 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 4: Oh so the Artemis two missions will take four crew 650 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 4: in the Orion around the Moon and then return on 651 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 4: a roughly you know, kind of week long mission, give 652 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 4: or take. 653 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 3: And then what's the timeline for when we want to 654 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 3: land on the Moon again? 655 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 4: That is the twenty five billion dollar question. There is 656 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 4: been a change in the way that the agency has 657 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 4: approached its lunar landing efforts. So in the Apollo program, 658 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 4: MASSA did rely on contractors, relied on Grummen the grumb 659 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 4: and Lander system that they built, but that was ultimately 660 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 4: owned and operated and kind of managed by NASA. Right 661 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 4: with the shift to commercial services and operations, that is 662 00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 4: not the case right now for NASA's landing plans. The 663 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 4: landers are owned and operated and managed as services by 664 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 4: SpaceX and Blue Origin, and so there isn't quite the 665 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 4: same level of insight and certainty, you know. And you 666 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 4: might say, you know, there's some arbitrary certainty in kind 667 00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 4: of government timelines, which is absolutely true, but we don't 668 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,280 Speaker 4: I don't quite know at the same level. For example, 669 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 4: NASA has not clarified publicly how many refueling flights they 670 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,280 Speaker 4: expect to be needed for a first lander of Starship, 671 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 4: in part because that depends on this performance of Starship 672 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,120 Speaker 4: and we don't quite yet know. We're still waiting on 673 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 4: the Version three flight coming up here in the next 674 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,640 Speaker 4: month or two, so there's a lot of uncertainty around 675 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,720 Speaker 4: when that landing would be. The NASA Administrator Jared Eisman 676 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 4: just announced a change to the Artemis campaign, inserting a 677 00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,400 Speaker 4: flight in between this next flight of Artemis two and 678 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,120 Speaker 4: the projected landing, and that would be equivalent to the 679 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,120 Speaker 4: old Apollo kind of nine mission where you're going to 680 00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 4: test docking the lander with the crew module in lower 681 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 4: th orbit. And the agency suggested actually that if both 682 00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 4: landers are ready, the Blue Origin and the SpaceX Lander, 683 00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,919 Speaker 4: maybe a lower orbit or Ryan might dock with both 684 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 4: of them. So long way of saying, there's still a 685 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 4: number of technical steps that need to go. I think 686 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 4: the Agency has targeted twenty eight for a landing, but 687 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,839 Speaker 4: we will see. The architecture for lunar landing this time 688 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,320 Speaker 4: is not as simple as it was in the Apollo program, 689 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 4: involves a lot more launches. The point where we don't 690 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 4: get quite even know how. 691 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 3: Many talk to us a little bit about Elon Musk 692 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:15,359 Speaker 3: has a Mars obsession, and he's not just interested in 693 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,879 Speaker 3: exploring whatever lakes or potential, you know, he's actually talked 694 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 3: about colonizing Mars. But I don't totally get that. I'm 695 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 3: sure I could read a book on it. In fact, 696 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 3: I think there is a famous book that inspired everyone. 697 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 3: I gotta read that. But like there's no oxygen up 698 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,520 Speaker 3: there must be pretty miserable, can Like, what's the idea 699 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,680 Speaker 3: behind actually living on Mars, and does that seem And 700 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 3: you know, I have to say, just to back up 701 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,719 Speaker 3: for a second, like, I don't think we'll ever see 702 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 3: a space elevator in our life, but I absolutely think 703 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,920 Speaker 3: there will be one eventually, and if it happens in 704 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 3: a thousand years, that's a very short time in the 705 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,640 Speaker 3: grand scheme of things for human history. So like, but like, Okay, 706 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 3: so maybe we don't we never see Mars in my lifetime. 707 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 3: But what is the idea generally beyond behind the idea 708 00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 3: that Mars is a theoreticly habitable location that maybe could 709 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 3: be economically productive or useful to DeCamp to in some way. 710 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're asking kind of one of the 711 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 4: most fundamental existential questions about our journey into space. Right 712 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 4: in theory, we have a long time to go, right, 713 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 4: We've got approximately you know, one billion years give or 714 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:24,120 Speaker 4: take until this planet becomes uninhabitable, right, and so ultimately, 715 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 4: as hdu Wels would have it, it's all the universe 716 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 4: or nothingness. Right, Either we managed to escape the planet 717 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 4: of our origin and we have further experiences and expansion 718 00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 4: and adventures out amongst the stars, or we don't. So 719 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,640 Speaker 4: part of the long run vision is that eventually humans 720 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 4: will figure out how to leave not just our planet 721 00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,360 Speaker 4: but our Solar system. However, we do not have a 722 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 4: real good understanding of how we would at all make 723 00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 4: that possible today, and so heart of the thought is 724 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 4: we're going to need to learn how to live out 725 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 4: in space for extended periods of time. The longest that 726 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 4: we live in space these days is about one year. 727 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,520 Speaker 4: There have been Russian missions in the paths that have 728 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,719 Speaker 4: lasted longer in lower orbit, but our medical docs these 729 00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 4: days at NASA pretty much don't clear anyone beyond one year. 730 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,839 Speaker 4: So the idea of going to Mars is kind of 731 00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 4: developed over the centuries. For a long time, we thought 732 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,239 Speaker 4: that there would be it would be much more habitable, right, 733 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,399 Speaker 4: We thought there might be oxygen there. There isn't. There's 734 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:19,960 Speaker 4: a really good book that's come out the last couple 735 00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:21,920 Speaker 4: of years called City on Mars, which really kind of 736 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,479 Speaker 4: goes through some of these things that you're talking about, 737 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 4: which is that really might not be that nice of 738 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 4: a place to live. You know, when you ever get 739 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:28,799 Speaker 4: the question where do you want to go? I often 740 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 4: say Venus because it's kind of a one year in 741 00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:32,919 Speaker 4: back mission. Because Ultimately, I want to stay on Earth. 742 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,799 Speaker 4: It's literally where all of the restaurants are, right There 743 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,920 Speaker 4: are restaurants anywhere else in the Solar System, And so 744 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,640 Speaker 4: there's a kind of sense of that frontier mentality that 745 00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 4: I think appeals to some people's narratives, even if they 746 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,000 Speaker 4: don't necessarily spend a lot of time on any frontiers themselves. 747 00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 4: And I think that idea of going out to a 748 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,319 Speaker 4: new world and learning from that world is also a 749 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:58,000 Speaker 4: different related motivator. Right there is a scientific interest of exploration. 750 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,360 Speaker 4: What can we learn from this genuinely different alien world 751 00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,600 Speaker 4: and what can we learn about ourselves by learning to 752 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:08,600 Speaker 4: live on it for decades centuries. There's a cultural argument 753 00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,959 Speaker 4: that some of my friends kind of really like, which 754 00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 4: is this argument that goes back to earthsc clerk, which 755 00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 4: is that fundamentally it's about getting variation in humanity, variation 756 00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,160 Speaker 4: in the cultures of humanity. What will we learn what 757 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 4: kind of different humanity will emerge from life in other worlds? 758 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,360 Speaker 4: We don't know, but that seems like an interesting question 759 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:28,480 Speaker 4: and interesting exploration. 760 00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,760 Speaker 2: So I know you spoke previously about how private capital 761 00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 2: has always had a role in space exploration to various degrees. 762 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,200 Speaker 2: But when you look at twenty twenty six, I think 763 00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 2: some people would argue that a lot of territory has 764 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 2: been ceded to private companies like SpaceX. When you think 765 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,240 Speaker 2: about your framework of looking at this, are there certain 766 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,800 Speaker 2: places or things or missions that you think are better 767 00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,959 Speaker 2: for federal funding to take on versus private capital? 768 00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:00,239 Speaker 5: All? 769 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:05,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, For me, the big determinant is whether or not 770 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,960 Speaker 4: this is something that is going to require public dollars 771 00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:13,440 Speaker 4: for essentially the foreseeable future, right that there really aren't 772 00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 4: options as far as we can you know, kind of 773 00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:21,640 Speaker 4: reasonably assess for their being private markets. So, for example, 774 00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,719 Speaker 4: on launch vehicles, there were private markets. Right, the US 775 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,640 Speaker 4: went from having essentially zero market share of global launches 776 00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,880 Speaker 4: in two thousand and seven to now basically having seventy 777 00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,120 Speaker 4: five percent or above because of the success of SpaceX. 778 00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,480 Speaker 4: There are there is a global market to launch. It's 779 00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,319 Speaker 4: also global market in satellite internet, right, So these are 780 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 4: ones where it makes sense to have private companies in 781 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 4: the lead. There may be you know, kind of natural 782 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,799 Speaker 4: monopoly challenges, so you may think about how you're going 783 00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:50,480 Speaker 4: to manage that in the future, but you know, we 784 00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:54,319 Speaker 4: do that in other industries too. So for me, the 785 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,239 Speaker 4: reason we're experimenting in space stations is because, you know, 786 00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 4: we think that might be an area where there really 787 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 4: might be some commercial more. We've actually seen multiple different 788 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,680 Speaker 4: private missions that have been paid for. They're not yet 789 00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,040 Speaker 4: at kind of a very significant share of the market 790 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,120 Speaker 4: for human spaceflight, but it's certainly a lot more than 791 00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:11,640 Speaker 4: it was ten years ago when it was zero and 792 00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 4: now it's a few percentage. For me, some of the 793 00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:15,640 Speaker 4: things that we need to make sure kind of stay 794 00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,200 Speaker 4: within the public domain, within kind of NASA management operation 795 00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,920 Speaker 4: includes things like operating the Moon base. It is going 796 00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,359 Speaker 4: to be a very expensive proposition. There may be some 797 00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,640 Speaker 4: elements to that that it makes sense to have a 798 00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:32,400 Speaker 4: private sector experimentation and potentially even infrastructure ownership. For example, 799 00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,040 Speaker 4: you can imagine a world where you might have a 800 00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,719 Speaker 4: baseline power system on the lunar surface that is kind 801 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,839 Speaker 4: of owned by the government, but if there's kind of 802 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,239 Speaker 4: interest in expanding that, well, maybe you have some private 803 00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:42,719 Speaker 4: sector kind of you know, take on some of the 804 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,160 Speaker 4: risks to see whether or not they have some other 805 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,640 Speaker 4: infrastructure options there. If we don't have that privately owned, 806 00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,839 Speaker 4: then I think there might be some challenges of kind 807 00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:51,920 Speaker 4: of pushback, right to what extent do you want your 808 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,320 Speaker 4: tax dollars going to fund Jeff Bezos's Moon base versus, 809 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:59,600 Speaker 4: you know, the National Lunar Research Station. I think people's 810 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,719 Speaker 4: answers that are potentially different. And given the fact that 811 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,080 Speaker 4: it's essentially public tax hours they're paying for all these things, 812 00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,200 Speaker 4: I think that's something we need to consider. So, you know, 813 00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:10,319 Speaker 4: the standard answer is that we have the government take 814 00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,880 Speaker 4: on these higher risk activities where there really is no 815 00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 4: market demand. But I also think that we need to 816 00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,239 Speaker 4: think about this as an infrastructure play. For a long 817 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,799 Speaker 4: period of time, we're going to be reliant on publicly 818 00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,879 Speaker 4: funded resources for these things, and I think therefore there 819 00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:26,839 Speaker 4: needs to be some some public management or that through 820 00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:27,480 Speaker 4: agency like. 821 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,719 Speaker 3: NASA, we can have private companies doing some of the 822 00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:33,759 Speaker 3: lunar services like catering the space station. We could get 823 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,880 Speaker 3: like sidexo or one of those companies to handle that. 824 00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,680 Speaker 3: I'd be comfortable outsourcing some of that. What is the 825 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:43,880 Speaker 3: deal with lunar territory? Have governments tried to claim slices 826 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,000 Speaker 3: of the Moon? Let's say we land it was a 827 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,080 Speaker 3: US based station on the Moon. Would we then say 828 00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:53,160 Speaker 3: that that is American property that are what is international 829 00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,680 Speaker 3: law established with regards to claims on the Moon or elsewhere. 830 00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:00,160 Speaker 4: Yep, great question. So this was actually resolved in the 831 00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 4: the sixties with the unter Space Treaty nineteen sixty seven. 832 00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,320 Speaker 4: So prior to any human landing on the Moon, essentially 833 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,279 Speaker 4: the powers of the world, including the Soviet Union and 834 00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,840 Speaker 4: the US and China all decided we don't want the 835 00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:16,359 Speaker 4: same type of kind of territorial acquisition scramble that we've 836 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,200 Speaker 4: seen in human history to take place on the Moon. 837 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,360 Speaker 4: So there was an agreement that essentially there will not 838 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:27,520 Speaker 4: be any assertion of national territory, and undernational law there 839 00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,080 Speaker 4: are no private sector actors, so essentially there won't be 840 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:34,440 Speaker 4: any ownership of territory. However, there is ownership of the 841 00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,440 Speaker 4: assets that you put there, so any Moon base that 842 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,440 Speaker 4: you put there, any physical infrastructure, would be American infrastructure. 843 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,880 Speaker 4: But just like an Antarctica, there are provisions within the 844 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:47,239 Speaker 4: unter Space Treaty to allow other countries to come and 845 00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,480 Speaker 4: visit these facilities. They can notify and say we'd like 846 00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,000 Speaker 4: to come visit your facility to make sure that there 847 00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:54,880 Speaker 4: isn't any underward military activity happening. There. So there's this 848 00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,960 Speaker 4: principle of reciprocity of visitation that's established, and the idea 849 00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,080 Speaker 4: that we can all so mine has already been established. 850 00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,000 Speaker 4: So what I always like to say is that no 851 00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,040 Speaker 4: matter what business idea, that you have a lunar surface, 852 00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:10,840 Speaker 4: you can probably engage on it right now if you 853 00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,160 Speaker 4: can make the case, with the exception of property speculation, 854 00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:16,200 Speaker 4: if you want to go build a hotel on the Moon, 855 00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,279 Speaker 4: you can afford to do it, and you can just 856 00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,160 Speaker 4: put it down. You'll get the get the license to 857 00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:22,400 Speaker 4: do it. You don't own the territory, but you can 858 00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:24,879 Speaker 4: put it there. If you want to mine something. The 859 00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,400 Speaker 4: Space Actor of twenty fifteen that was approved by Congress 860 00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:29,799 Speaker 4: and signed into a law establish that if you mine it, 861 00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,839 Speaker 4: essentially you own it, right So if you take something 862 00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:35,840 Speaker 4: from a lunar surface, that's been established. The Artemis Accord 863 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,839 Speaker 4: signatories have all basically signed up to that. So that's 864 00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 4: now a very popular proposition around the world. And if 865 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:42,319 Speaker 4: you think about it, we've already established that. When we 866 00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,920 Speaker 4: brought back rocks from the Paul program, no one debated 867 00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,200 Speaker 4: that the United States could essentially do what it wanted 868 00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:50,200 Speaker 4: with that. And you asked, gave it out to countries 869 00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,600 Speaker 4: around the world use it for scientific purposes. So we've 870 00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,000 Speaker 4: already established a lot of those principles. But the idea 871 00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,000 Speaker 4: that there's going to be territory is one that currently 872 00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,359 Speaker 4: the out of Space Treaty, I would argue, thankfully kind 873 00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:00,920 Speaker 4: of established, is not one that we're going to be 874 00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:01,440 Speaker 4: competing over. 875 00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,400 Speaker 2: How often do you think about the economic impacts of 876 00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:05,920 Speaker 2: an alien invasion. 877 00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:10,320 Speaker 4: You know, only on Fridays. 878 00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 2: Is this not like a thought experiment that they assigned 879 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:14,960 Speaker 2: to all NASA economists? 880 00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:16,680 Speaker 4: You know, it's a great point when the agency re 881 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,719 Speaker 4: establishes the position, we should absolutely make that a requirement 882 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,560 Speaker 4: of you know, reporting out on that. Obviously, in an 883 00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,319 Speaker 4: alien innovation, it would probably be pretty catastrophic. I would 884 00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,840 Speaker 4: certainly recommend to any listeners, you know, the Three Body 885 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,880 Speaker 4: Problem series, but if they ever read it, it's absolutely fantastic, 886 00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,040 Speaker 4: and you know, it makes a pretty clear case that 887 00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:36,000 Speaker 4: would be a rough time. 888 00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,680 Speaker 2: All right, Alex, thank you so much for coming on 889 00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,920 Speaker 2: odd lots, Thank you for coming to our party. I'm 890 00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,440 Speaker 2: so glad we actually met and I did get to 891 00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,319 Speaker 2: ask you the question of what it is that you 892 00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,280 Speaker 2: do so really appreciate it. 893 00:44:47,800 --> 00:45:01,880 Speaker 6: Thanks, It is a real pleasure, Joe. 894 00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,120 Speaker 2: That was fascinating. I mean part of me just like 895 00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:06,759 Speaker 2: hearing what we're up to now when it comes to 896 00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,600 Speaker 2: space exploration and the answer it turns out is, you know, 897 00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,279 Speaker 2: a decent amount. There are so many questions that we 898 00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,279 Speaker 2: didn't even get to. I kind of wanted to ask 899 00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,520 Speaker 2: for an economist's take on the procurement process. Yes as well, 900 00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,760 Speaker 2: but we're going to have to have Alex back. 901 00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,160 Speaker 3: On procurement is Actually I want to do more on 902 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:28,719 Speaker 3: that specifically because I imagine that there's a lot of sort 903 00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,560 Speaker 3: of small startups in both the sort of space and 904 00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:33,480 Speaker 3: defense area. I mean, we know there's a lot of 905 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,719 Speaker 3: defense tech startups, and I assume there's a lot of 906 00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:39,520 Speaker 3: space tech startups. How you actually evaluate those ones? I mean, 907 00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:43,160 Speaker 3: it's actually really impressive thinking about backing SpaceX of two 908 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:47,080 Speaker 3: thousand and eight. Yeah, when it was long before they 909 00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,680 Speaker 3: had sort of proven that they could do reusable rockets 910 00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:51,360 Speaker 3: at scale, and now we've all seen the videos and 911 00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,120 Speaker 3: they still blow my mind every single time. That was 912 00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:55,880 Speaker 3: a really good bet and it was like, you know, 913 00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,920 Speaker 3: I'm sure a lot of people thought that was completely 914 00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:02,239 Speaker 3: implausible or whatever very recently in history. So that's pretty extraordinary. 915 00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:04,680 Speaker 3: I am also I'm still and I think that's right. 916 00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,240 Speaker 3: I looked up this chart again and the Wikipedia page. 917 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,879 Speaker 3: Four and a half percent of one point the entire 918 00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,600 Speaker 3: federal budget was NASA, which just seems like so hard 919 00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:14,880 Speaker 3: to believe right now that this was like a really 920 00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,520 Speaker 3: big part of what the government is spending money out. 921 00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:19,480 Speaker 2: Well, this is the thing. If you couch, If you 922 00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,800 Speaker 2: couch it in existential terms, then you know, the upward 923 00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,640 Speaker 2: limit of your budget becomes I guess not infinity, but 924 00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:29,719 Speaker 2: you know, four percent pretty good. 925 00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,920 Speaker 3: I do wonder, like it does not seem implausible to 926 00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,120 Speaker 3: me that we have another Sputnik moment with China. What 927 00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,160 Speaker 3: if like tomorrow, the like we're landing, we're landing. 928 00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,080 Speaker 2: The other thing I want to ask about how NASA 929 00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,600 Speaker 2: differs from China's space agency. 930 00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,759 Speaker 3: But look, what if, like you know, they're like, oh, yeah, 931 00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:46,600 Speaker 3: we have we have someone landing on the Moon next 932 00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:50,080 Speaker 3: week or something like that, Like it seems plausible at 933 00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:51,840 Speaker 3: some point they they kind. 934 00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,400 Speaker 2: Of suddenly builds a space elevator. They figured out about. 935 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:56,560 Speaker 3: It, They figured out reusable rockets too. You know what 936 00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:00,560 Speaker 3: the name of their uh reusable rocket is what the 937 00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:01,759 Speaker 3: long March ten? 938 00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:03,839 Speaker 2: Really? Yeah, that's good. 939 00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:04,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a good name. 940 00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 4: Anyway. 941 00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:07,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought that was a great conversation. And I 942 00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:09,520 Speaker 3: just don't say, like I don't you know, I'm pretty 943 00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,279 Speaker 3: skeptical of the fact that anytime soon we're gonna get 944 00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,839 Speaker 3: like actual economic productivity out of space, whether it's from 945 00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,520 Speaker 3: mining or I don't know, maybe the Data Center's things 946 00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,839 Speaker 3: will happen. But I'm still pro spending money on going 947 00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:23,960 Speaker 3: to space just for the sake of it. I think 948 00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,439 Speaker 3: it's I think it's inspiring. If we saw some people 949 00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,440 Speaker 3: land on the Moon and hang out there for a while, well, 950 00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,759 Speaker 3: I mean, it'd be in such better video condition, you 951 00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:33,359 Speaker 3: know what I'm saying, like those it wouldn't be those 952 00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:34,680 Speaker 3: you know, we could see it in the high dev 953 00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,200 Speaker 3: and they could do stuff insaid, those grainy things that 954 00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,359 Speaker 3: maybe some people were thought shot on like a set. 955 00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,719 Speaker 2: So why don't you just use AI to pretend to 956 00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:42,279 Speaker 2: be on the Moon? 957 00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:43,120 Speaker 3: I want to see it. 958 00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:46,360 Speaker 2: Would you go to the Moon, Yeah, it depends on 959 00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:49,560 Speaker 2: how far developed that particular technology is. 960 00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:51,880 Speaker 3: I would definitely go. I mean, as long as they 961 00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,479 Speaker 3: thought it was like plausible, and other people were going, 962 00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:55,520 Speaker 3: I'd go I. 963 00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,719 Speaker 2: Would need a certain amount of successful missions before I 964 00:47:58,760 --> 00:47:59,560 Speaker 2: agree to you'd be. 965 00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,439 Speaker 3: On the first I'll be on the first one. Let's 966 00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:01,600 Speaker 3: do it? 967 00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, all right, Well, in the name of 968 00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,279 Speaker 2: all blots, maybe I would consider you for do it 969 00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:08,879 Speaker 2: for content for content. That's right, Okay, shall we leave 970 00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:09,080 Speaker 2: it there. 971 00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:09,879 Speaker 3: Let's leave it there. 972 00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:12,240 Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the Odd Loots podcast. 973 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,600 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 974 00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,200 Speaker 3: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 975 00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,279 Speaker 3: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman armand dash Ol 976 00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:24,319 Speaker 3: Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Calebrooks. And for 977 00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,800 Speaker 3: more odd Laws content, go to bloomberg dot com slash 978 00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,440 Speaker 3: odd Lots or a daily newsletter and all of our episodes, 979 00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,560 Speaker 3: and you can chat about all of these topics twenty 980 00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:35,000 Speaker 3: four to seven in our discord Discord dot gg slash 981 00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:35,520 Speaker 3: odd Lots. 982 00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,040 Speaker 2: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you want Joe 983 00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,880 Speaker 2: and I to be on the first space flight to 984 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,279 Speaker 2: the Moon in the name of Audlots content, then please 985 00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,560 Speaker 2: leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform, 986 00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,239 Speaker 2: and remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can 987 00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,319 Speaker 2: listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All 988 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,400 Speaker 2: you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on 989 00:48:54,520 --> 00:49:14,440 Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening 990 00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:03,239 Speaker 2: in