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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Roun.

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for joining us today on Balance of Power,

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Speaker 3: whether you're watching us on YouTube, listening to us on

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Speaker 3: the radio on satellite radio. Perhaps, and I certainly hope

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Speaker 3: you will be able to continue doing so far into

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Speaker 3: the future. But like so many things in modern life,

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Speaker 3: we do need satellites for that to happen. Whether it's

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Speaker 3: communicating with friends and family, using the GPS in your car,

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Speaker 3: listening to Bloomberg Radio, a lot of it requires that

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Speaker 3: satellite technology. So what would happen if potentially, say a

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Speaker 3: Russian nuclear space weapon took that out. I know it

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Speaker 3: sounds like a doomsday scenario, it might be within the

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Speaker 3: realm of possibility, and it was the subject of a

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Speaker 3: speech earlier today at the Center for Strategic and International

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Speaker 3: Studies given by the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee,

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Speaker 3: Mike Turner, and the congressman from Ohio is here with

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Speaker 3: me now in our Washington, d C studio. Mister chairman,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: It's a terrifying proposition. How close is something like a

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Speaker 3: Russian nuclear space weapon being to a reality we're going

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Speaker 3: to have to face.

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Speaker 4: Well, Katy, thank you for having me today and thank

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Speaker 4: you for your characterizing really what the threat is. And

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Speaker 4: that's why this is so important for us to push

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Speaker 4: the administration to take actions here. The Administration has acknowledged

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Speaker 4: that Russia is developing an anti satellite nuclear weapon, and

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Speaker 4: that's really all that they have told us publicly since then. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: the outcomes that you were describing and the catastrophic effects

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Speaker 4: if a NUCO weapon was detonated in space really go

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Speaker 4: all the way back to the vulnerability of if that

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Speaker 4: satellite is put in orbit. JERLD Saltzman, the Chief of

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Speaker 4: Staff or Space Force, has said that if this weapon

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Speaker 4: is put in orbit, that would be day zero because

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Speaker 4: the very next day we would not be able to

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Speaker 4: count on space, and really space is so important for

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Speaker 4: everything that we do. It would be destabilizing both for

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Speaker 4: international security but also our economic systems, foundational our communication systems.

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Speaker 4: So the administration needs to step up the plate. I'm

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Speaker 4: calling on them to declassify the status of this threat

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Speaker 4: and then also take action to prevent it. They should

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Speaker 4: impact the outcome and make certain this satellite does not

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Speaker 4: get in space.

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Speaker 3: So, just on the classification question, obviously there's a ton

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Speaker 3: of material that me, as a civilian member of the public,

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Speaker 3: don't have access to. That information is classified, and I

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Speaker 3: would assume a lot of it is classified for a reason.

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Speaker 3: Is there not danger in making threats like this so

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Speaker 3: visible to the public? Potentially so panic.

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Speaker 4: Wells generally a panic issue as much as is instilling

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Speaker 4: confidence that the administration's doing something. I mean, in this instance,

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Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin thrives in secrecy, and also so does the

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Speaker 4: administrations in action. By the administration not acknowledging the threat,

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Speaker 4: the administration is free to not make this on their

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Speaker 4: to do list or not to accomplish tasks that would

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Speaker 4: protect us. You know, in this instance, the fact that

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Speaker 4: Russia is acknowledged by the administration is pursuing This is

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Speaker 4: a threat that should be of a critical objective of

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Speaker 4: this administration.

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Speaker 3: So what is it that the administration can do to

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Speaker 3: protect us? Is it making sure that Russia doesn't have

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Speaker 3: access to certain technologies. How would you guarantee that happens?

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Speaker 3: Is it a sanction question and an export control question?

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Speaker 3: What exactly is the action required here in your lie?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think this is sort of all in the above.

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Speaker 4: But the real way to look at this is this

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Speaker 4: is the Cuban missile crisis in space. Jim Times, my

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Speaker 4: ranking member on the Intelligence Committee, coined that, and it

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Speaker 4: really is the case. Imagine if President Kennedy had done

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Speaker 4: nothing when Russia had looked to put nuclear weapons in Cuba,

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Speaker 4: it would have changed the entire dynamics of the world.

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Speaker 4: Europe probably would not be free because we would have

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Speaker 4: been held hostage by nuclear weapons just off the coast

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Speaker 4: of Florida and not taking action in Europe. Similarly, if

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Speaker 4: Putin is allowed to put a nuclear weapon in space,

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Speaker 4: he is going to hold hostage all of the space

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Speaker 4: assets of the world, and certainly that would give him

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Speaker 4: free reign to be able to reassemble the Soviet Union

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Speaker 4: and threaten our critical allies.

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Speaker 3: Could we do it first, Well, would that make a

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Speaker 3: difference here in terms of deterrence?

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Speaker 4: Well, the UN Space treet of nineteen sixty seven we

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Speaker 4: all agreed that we would not do this because we

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Speaker 4: wanted to reach the promise of space's mankind. As you

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Speaker 4: just described, You and I today wouldn't even be here

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Speaker 4: in this studio doing this if it wasn't as a

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Speaker 4: result of space, in our hospitals, in our economics. All

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Speaker 4: of the things that we've accomplished in the space age

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Speaker 4: would come to a halt, and we would have to

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Speaker 4: look for alternative sources of being able to accomplish those things.

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Speaker 4: If there's a nuclear weapon in space, even if it

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Speaker 4: hasn't been detonated, its threat will require that we have

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Speaker 4: alternative access, and it just doesn't exist right now.

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Speaker 3: When we're considering threats posed by Russia. Do those only

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Speaker 3: grow exponentially when you have, say, Vladimir Putin visiting North

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Speaker 3: Korea for the first time since the year two thousand

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Speaker 3: and inking, a deal that Kim Jong un called the

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Speaker 3: most powerful treaty ever signed between the two countries. What

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Speaker 3: do you make of that?

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Speaker 4: Well, remember, North Korea is under sanctions by the United

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Speaker 4: Nations as a result of what they have done in

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Speaker 4: violating nonpliferation treaties their nuclear weapons program. So Kim jongung

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Speaker 4: gets great credibility by standing next to Vladimir Putin, who

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Speaker 4: then embraces all of the action that he's doing and

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Speaker 4: imprisoning his people. That I think is probably a greater

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Speaker 4: benefit to him. I think a military lines economic alliance,

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Speaker 4: they already have those. I don't think there's anything else

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Speaker 4: that's wrapped into this, but the benefit to him around

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Speaker 4: the world to stand next for Putin is certainly a danger.

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Speaker 3: Well, North Korea is under sanctions, as is Russia. Those

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Speaker 3: were expanded last week at the G seven, now including

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Speaker 3: secondary sanctions. But Russia does have North Korea to turn too.

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Speaker 5: They also have.

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Speaker 3: China to turn to in many instances, can any of

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Speaker 3: those sanction policies, the kind of international economic policies that

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Speaker 3: have been put into place to try to restrain Russia

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Speaker 3: as it engages in an ongoing war with Ukraine, can

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Speaker 3: any of them really be effective so long as these

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Speaker 3: other adversaries exist and are im Putin's corner.

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Speaker 4: Well, there are sanction regimes that can be put in place,

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Speaker 4: and I think some of those need to be looked

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Speaker 4: at with respect to this issue of this evolving threat

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Speaker 4: of the development of an anti satellite nuclear weapon. This

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Speaker 4: administration has been very slow in implementing sanctioned policies and

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Speaker 4: in their weapons provisions to Ukraine and the permission to

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Speaker 4: use those weapons in the exchange of intelligence. So there's

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Speaker 4: a lot this administration could do that where they've really

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Speaker 4: put Ukraine in a situation where they're fighting with one

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Speaker 4: hand behind their back.

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Speaker 3: Well, we've seen some changes on the margin to that recently,

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Speaker 3: perhaps the allowance of Ukraine using weapons offensively, at least

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Speaker 3: in certain areas, only to hit certain military targets. Does

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Speaker 3: that need to be expanded in your mind or do

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Speaker 3: you do you think the escalation concern that the administration

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Speaker 3: has voiced repeatedly is justified.

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Speaker 4: I think this administration is way too timid. Their view

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Speaker 4: of escalatory acts is are to implement defensive acts for Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Russia is the aggressor they're the ones who have escalated.

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Speaker 4: We're just responding in a deficient defensive manner. This administration

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Speaker 4: allowing Nearer Kharkiv a limited use of US long range

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Speaker 4: weapons will not change the dynamics on the battlefield. There

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Speaker 4: are ways to accomplish that, and this administration needs to

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Speaker 4: fully get behind Ukraine and support them.

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Speaker 3: This administration also has express support for Israel, and yet

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Speaker 3: we have seen the withholding of certain large bombs, over

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Speaker 3: concerned and of how what kind of civilian casualties they

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Speaker 3: can cause. Prime Minister Benjaminette Yahoo yesterday was accusing the

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Speaker 3: US of withholding other weapons as well. You sit as

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Speaker 3: chair of the Intelligence Committee. How is their merit to that?

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Speaker 3: Or is net and Yahoo saying things that aren't true?

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Speaker 4: Well, you silly have the administration stepping up and saying

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Speaker 4: that that they are providing them everything and that they

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Speaker 4: did not see the restrictions. But I think the problem

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Speaker 4: here is that the administration in each of these conflicts

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Speaker 4: needs to pick a side, and unfortunately they half heartedly

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Speaker 4: or lukewarm support a side, and our adversaries have no restrictions.

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Speaker 4: Our adversaries are not going to restrict the atrocities that

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Speaker 4: they're willing to perpetrate or what they're willing to do

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Speaker 4: against our allies. And yet we continue to restrict our

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Speaker 4: allies in there and their ways to defend themselves.

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Speaker 3: There's been a lot of buzz in recent days about

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Speaker 3: Israel potentially opening a new front to this war in

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Speaker 3: the north border with Lebanon going after Hesbelah directly. Is

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Speaker 3: that a real threat?

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Speaker 4: Well, Hesbola continues to be a threat to Israel, And

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Speaker 4: again we have to we have to unmask all of

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Speaker 4: these really franchises of Iran. Whether it's Hohothi's or it's

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Speaker 4: Hesbila and Lebanon or Hamas in Gossip, they're all proxies

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Speaker 4: of Iran, and all of this is being funded, armed, trained,

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Speaker 4: and perpetrated as part of Iran's destabilization in the in

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Speaker 4: the area. So hitting one or other of the tentacles

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Speaker 4: of Iran really is somewhat indiscernible.

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Speaker 3: But is Hesbela not more closely tied with Iran than

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Speaker 3: than Hamasis. Could that potentially going against a second proxy

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Speaker 3: be something that draws Iran more directly into this conflict

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Speaker 3: than we've seen this far.

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Speaker 6: I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so.

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Speaker 4: Again, the taking defensive action against someone else's provocation is

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Speaker 4: not escalatory, and in this instance, Esbula represents a significant threat.

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Speaker 4: Now I'm not advocating that they attack Hesbola, but if

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Speaker 4: they find themselves in a situation in their defense where

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Speaker 4: they need to defend themselves against Hesbla, I think we

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Speaker 4: still have to unmask them and understand this is still

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Speaker 4: just part of the overall tentacles of Iran, and they're

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Speaker 4: nefarious acts in the region, And.

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Speaker 3: Of course those tentacles may come back to Russia in

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Speaker 3: some way as well, as we consider Russia China Ran

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Speaker 3: the way in which all of these conflicts kind of

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Speaker 3: are not isolated, if you will, They're not happening in

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Speaker 3: a vacuum. How does especially the rather public tension we're

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Speaker 3: seeing between the Israeli government and the US government potentially

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Speaker 3: factor into the decision making by other adversaries, including Russia.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think this is just weakness on the part

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Speaker 4: of the Biden administration, where it be in Ukraine, whether

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Speaker 4: it be the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, where it's the

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Speaker 4: talking one way and providing support to Israel the other way.

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Speaker 4: These inconsistent signols in bolden those who want to do

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Speaker 4: our Ali's harm.

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Speaker 3: All right, mister chairman, thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 3: us here at Blimbert today. We appreciate your time again

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Speaker 3: fresh off giving that speech on the Russian nuclear power

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Speaker 3: in space that they are developing at the CSIS. Congressman

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Speaker 3: Mike Turner, we appreciate your time.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

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Speaker 2: Roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Kim Jong un is calling it the most powerful treaty

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Speaker 3: ever signed between his North Korea and Russia. He and

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Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin yesterday inking a deal in Pyongyang to provide

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Speaker 3: immediate military assistance if one of them is attacked. Survives

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Speaker 3: in agreement that dates back to the Cold War and

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Speaker 3: elevates the ties between the two countries to an alliance.

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Speaker 3: Keep in mind this happened is leader Imputin visited North

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Speaker 3: Korea for the first time since the year two thousand

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Speaker 3: and of course, comes against a backdrop of North Korea

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Speaker 3: providing missiles and other ammunition to Russia and its ongoing

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Speaker 3: war against Ukraine. We want to turn out to Angela Stent.

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Speaker 3: She is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and

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Speaker 3: author of the book Putin's World, Russia Against the West

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Speaker 3: and with the Rest. Angela, welcome back to Bloomberg. Thank

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Speaker 3: you so much for joining me as we consider what

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Speaker 3: exactly this most powerful treaty ever, really means. Does it

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Speaker 3: make both Russia and North Korea all that more dangerous?

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Speaker 5: I think we shouldn't exaggerated, But the short answer to

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Speaker 5: that is yes, it's very much, as you said, like

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Speaker 5: the nineteen sixty one treaty between the Soviet Union and

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Speaker 5: North Korea. But it does promise that they will help

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Speaker 5: each other mutual defense assistance of one of them is attacked.

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Speaker 5: Now we don't quite know what that means, but that's

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Speaker 5: not something that Russia has in most of its treaties

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Speaker 5: with other countries, and it sounds a little bit like

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Speaker 5: NATO's Article five. So I think we need to be

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Speaker 5: concerned about this, even though there was a lot of

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Speaker 5: rhetoric and pomp and circumstance when Putin went there, and

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Speaker 5: we don't know what the substance is. We haven't seen

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Speaker 5: the treaty, the details of the treaty, but we should

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Speaker 5: be concerned.

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Speaker 3: Well, is this also just a sign that Putin needs

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Speaker 3: maybe not this defensive deal, but just needs North Korea

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Speaker 3: and has to do something to keep Kim jongun in

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Speaker 3: line with him?

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Speaker 5: Right, So this is part of Putin's new access of

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Speaker 5: resistance with China, Iran and North Korea. Putin needs the

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Speaker 5: artillery shells from North Korea. He needs the ballistic missiles

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Speaker 5: that apparently are intelligence people say that the North Koreans

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Speaker 5: have been supplying him so in order to keep this

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Speaker 5: war in Ukraine going, in order to keep killing Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: he needs this. The question is what is he giving

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Speaker 5: Kim Jong un in return? Russia used to be part

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Speaker 5: of the Six Party talks trying to denuclearize North Korea.

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Speaker 5: Not a word about denuclearization. Is Russia going to somehow

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Speaker 5: help North Korea's nuclear program, its satellite program and make

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Speaker 5: it that much more of a dangerous, aggressive enemy for

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Speaker 5: South Korea, for Japan and for the Indo Pacific region.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting to hear you bring up nuclear capability because

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Speaker 3: I just earlier today had a conversation with the chair

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Speaker 3: of the House Intelligence Committee, Congressman Mike Turner, who was

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Speaker 3: warning and did so in a speech at CSIS earlier

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Speaker 3: today about Russia developing a nuclear weapon that could be

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Speaker 3: used in space to take out satellites. It's something he

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Speaker 3: is very concerned about. But we went beyond that, Angela

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Speaker 3: to also talk about the ongoing war against Ukraine and

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Speaker 3: what could be playing to Russia's advantage, including the US

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Speaker 3: military or the Biden administration specifically still putting restraint on

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Speaker 3: the way in which Ukraine could use military assists. It's

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Speaker 3: provided by the US. This is what the chairman told

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Speaker 3: me earlier.

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Speaker 4: I think this administration is way too timid. Their view

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Speaker 4: of escalatory acts is are to implement defensive acts for Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Russia is the aggressor. They're the ones who have escalated.

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Speaker 4: We're just responding in a deficient defensive manner. This administration

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Speaker 4: allowing a nearer Kharkiv a limited use of US long

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Speaker 4: range weapons will not change the dynamics on the battlefield.

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Speaker 3: So he Angela didn't seem to convince that allowing Ukraine

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Speaker 3: to do more offensively was going to be escalatory in

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Speaker 3: terms of getting more of a response out of Russia.

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Speaker 3: But you know Russia and Vladimir Putin quite well. Would

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Speaker 3: that be something that would escalate things?

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Speaker 5: So I tend to agree with him. I think that

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Speaker 5: we have been too intimidated by the threats that emanate

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Speaker 5: from Putin. But he is threatening sometimes to use tactical

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Speaker 5: nuclear weapons. He's both threatening armed countries that are near

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Speaker 5: Ukraine on allies of Ukraine with weapons that they can

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Speaker 5: use against Ukraine, maybe even against other European states. You

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Speaker 5: can't dismiss his threats altogether, but I do think that

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Speaker 5: the Biden administration and many European countries have been too

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Speaker 5: cautious about allowing Ukraine to use the advanced weapons that

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Speaker 5: we're supplying them with further into Russian territory. You can't

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Speaker 5: say one hundred percent that there wouldn't be a worse

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Speaker 5: reaction from Russia, but so far we haven't seen that,

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Speaker 5: and so far Russia has not attacked a NATO member country.

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Speaker 3: Well, Angela, I'm glad you raised that other European countries

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Speaker 3: are a factor in all of this as well, considering

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Speaker 3: the develops we've seen on developments we've seen on the

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Speaker 3: European continent in recent weeks, parliamentary elections that saw much

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Speaker 3: more power going to far right parties, a snap election

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Speaker 3: called by French President Emmanuel Macron in the aftermath, the

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Speaker 3: growing concern that perhaps Europe is leaning more toward the

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Speaker 3: right and therefore more towards skepticism them about further support

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Speaker 3: for Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: How do you read it?

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Speaker 5: Yes, I think that's a real danger. Let's see what

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Speaker 5: happens in the French election. If the far right comes

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Speaker 5: to power there, even though President Macron will still be

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Speaker 5: in office, it will be much more difficult for France

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Speaker 5: to continue its support for Ukraine. And we've seen that

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Speaker 5: in other countries. The far right did very well in Germany,

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Speaker 5: in the European elections in some of the other countries,

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Speaker 5: and these are all groups and parties that are much

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Speaker 5: more pro Russian and that don't want to support Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: So there are the European countries nearest to Ukraine, the

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Speaker 5: Baltic States, Poland and also the UK are very strong supporters.

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Speaker 5: But I think in some of the other parts of

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Speaker 5: Europe support will be weakening for Ukraine. And I think

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Speaker 5: obviously we don't know what's going to happen in our

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Speaker 5: own presidential election in November, but things could looked rather

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Speaker 5: different next year.

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Speaker 3: It's an excellent point. So is really all Vladimer Putin

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Speaker 3: needs to do Angela is keep things going, even if

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Speaker 3: in stalemate for him until next January.

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Speaker 5: That's always been his calculation. He's waiting to see what

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Speaker 5: happens in November, obviously hoping that the next US president

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Speaker 5: will not be supporting Ukraine and waiting to see what

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Speaker 5: happens in Europe. He can wait, he can bind his time.

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Speaker 5: He's getting these weapons now from North Korea, from Iran,

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Speaker 5: and even though we've then post even more severe financial

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Speaker 5: sanctions on Russia, his wartime economy is now doing better

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Speaker 5: than we thought it would.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm glad you raised that, especially as we began

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Speaker 3: this conversation talking about North Korea. So long as North

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Speaker 3: Korea and China exist in are in Russian's corner, is

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Speaker 3: there going to be any kind of international sanctions that

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Speaker 3: ultimately will be effective enough to help precipitate an end

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Speaker 3: to this war? Is that something that just isn't going

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Speaker 3: to work?

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Speaker 5: Well, it doesn't look as if it's worked so far.

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Speaker 5: We're now are also sanctioning some Chinese entities that have

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Speaker 5: been supplying chips and other sanctioned goods to Russia. But

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Speaker 5: so far Russia has managed to the Russian economy has

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Speaker 5: managed to survive, even though they can't trade in dollars anymore.

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Speaker 5: And I think we may be overestimated the impact of

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Speaker 5: these Western sanctions on the Russian economy. So I don't

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Speaker 5: see them bringing down the Russian economy anytime soon or

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Speaker 5: forcing Putin to rethink his calculus in Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: All right, Angela, it's always great to have you here

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Speaker 3: on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 3: me on Bloomberg TV and radio. Angela Stent is a

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Speaker 3: senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and also author of

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Speaker 3: Putin's World, Russia against the West and with the rest.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to. The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast catches

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple.

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Speaker 2: Car Play and then broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Some news today from Israeli military suggesting that Prime Minister

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Speaker 3: Benjamin Netanyah, whose long stated goal of destroying Hamas is unachievable.

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Speaker 3: This is the quote to say we are going to

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Speaker 3: destroy Hamas to make it disappear. It's simply throwing sand

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Speaker 3: in the eyes of the public. Hamas is an idea.

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Speaker 3: Whoever thinks we can make it disappear is mistaken, mistaken.

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Speaker 3: This is a real admiral in Israel's military, and we

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Speaker 3: wanted to turn out to someone who probably has a

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Speaker 3: thought or two on this. Former Ambassador James Jeffrey is

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Speaker 3: with me now. He is chair of the Middle East

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Speaker 3: Program at the Wilson Center. Also former US Ambassadors to

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Speaker 3: a Rock and to Turkey. Ambassador, welcome back to Balance

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Speaker 3: of Power. Thank you so much for joining me. Does

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Speaker 3: the military have a point? Can Hamas realistically be completely destroyed?

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Speaker 7: Thank you for having me on. The military is right.

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Speaker 7: First of all, Hamas cannot be destroyed as an ideology

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Speaker 7: and all of its people cannot be wiped out. But

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Speaker 7: for several years I was involved in the Defeat Islamic

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Speaker 7: State campaign two and eighteen twenty nineteen twenty, and we

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Speaker 7: knew we couldn't destroy it, but we could defeat it

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Speaker 7: in the sense of removing it from power and taking

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Speaker 7: away its offensive capabilities. That's exactly what the Israelis have

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Speaker 7: been doing. The Israeli admiral is right that you can't

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Speaker 7: defeat Hamas, but he's being a little bit disingenious because

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Speaker 7: he knows that Prime Minister Netanyao at least understands this,

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Speaker 7: and from time to time Netanieo speaks in less apocalyptic

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Speaker 7: terms about dismantling Hamas. The problem is, Netaniao has to

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Speaker 7: deal with some very right wing members of his cabinet,

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Speaker 7: who do not want to end this war, who do

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Speaker 7: not want to have a day after. But Netanyao, of

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Speaker 7: course has advanced this ceasefire proposal that would have all

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Speaker 7: Israeli forces leaving Ganza. The question is under which conditions?

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Speaker 7: So I think there's probably less than meets the eye,

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Speaker 7: but it still indicates that there's friction within the Israeli.

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Speaker 3: Government well on the ceasefire proposal. We of course had

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Speaker 3: that outlined in a big address from the White House

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Speaker 3: by President Biden. Almost immediately it seemed that Netanyahu was

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Speaker 3: trying to walk part of it back. You saw pushback,

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Speaker 3: obviously from Hamas. They submitted a counter proposal. Is that

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Speaker 3: original ceasefire, a three stage deal that the President had outlined,

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Speaker 3: now dead in the water. Where exactly do we stand?

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Speaker 2: Not at all.

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Speaker 7: The administration is still pressing through Kuta in Egypt. Hamas

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Speaker 7: to give an answer, stands by it. The problem is

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Speaker 7: the President glossed over the core part of this whole thing.

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Speaker 7: Israel is putting on the table a cessation of the

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Speaker 7: war and withdrawal of its forces from Gaza, but it

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Speaker 7: has condition Those conditions would be the subject of negotiations

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Speaker 7: during the first of the three stages, and it's not

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Speaker 7: guaranteed that Hamas would agree to them, or that Israel

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Speaker 7: would even compromise on any of its positions and thus

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Speaker 7: leave it has to see Hamas not in power, and

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Speaker 7: it has to be ensured that and reassured rather that

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Speaker 7: Hamas will not reconstitute as it has done before. Those

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Speaker 7: are realistic war goals. The Israelis are advancing them, and

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Speaker 7: we'll see what Hamas will do.

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Speaker 1: Well.

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Speaker 3: And that goes back to something you mentioned a moment ago,

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Speaker 3: the idea that you take out the power of Hamas

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Speaker 3: or the ability for it to conduct operations like what

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Speaker 3: happened on October seventh. We heard when President Biden was

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Speaker 3: outlining this deal at the White House weeks ago. The

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Speaker 3: idea that, yes, Hamas is military capability, their ability to

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Speaker 3: conduct another October seventh has been eliminated. Is that not

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Speaker 3: entirely true, Ambassador.

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Speaker 7: That is true today. But if Hamas is left in

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Speaker 7: control of Gaza, and if it regains control of the

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Speaker 7: Philadelphi corridor to Egypt and the Rafa crossing and thus

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Speaker 7: is able to bring in the hundreds of millions of

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Speaker 7: dollars of supplies concrete rebars, steel and most importantly Iranian weapons.

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Speaker 7: It will soon have that capability to attack Israel again

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Speaker 7: the next time, possibly coordinated better with Iran and Hisbola.

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Speaker 7: This is an existential threat to Israel. So Israel will

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Speaker 7: not accept to cease fire, will not leave Gaza unless

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Speaker 7: it is assured of several things. One is that some

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Speaker 7: international or other entity will come in and govern Gaza,

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Speaker 7: and that Hamas will be forced to accept that. In

439
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 7: two that Hamas never gains control of the Egyptian border again.

440
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 7: I think those are the key conditions that Israel will

441
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 7: be advancing in any talks if they get to them

442
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 7: with Hamas.

443
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 3: Of course, all the while, Israel is under a great

444
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 3: deal of pressure from the US government, and we've seen

445
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 3: the US government holding specific shipments of weapons, specifically large bombs,

446
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 3: over concern of the kind of civilian casualties that could

447
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 3: result from their use. But we did hear earlier this

448
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 3: week ambassador from Prime Minister Netanyah who himself about the

449
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 3: shipments of weapons from the US. This is what he suggested.

450
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: I said, it's inconcealable that in the past few months

451
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel during

452
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,199
Speaker 1: World War Two. Churchill told the United States, give us

453
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,120
Speaker 1: the tools, we'll do the job. And I say, give

454
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: us the tools, and we'll finish the job a lot faster.

455
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 3: And that video from the Prime Minister was addressed by

456
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 3: White House spokesman John Kirby earlier today, who said the

457
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 3: US did not know in advance that Netanya whose video

458
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 3: was coming. It disappointed us greatly and was puzzling. There

459
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 3: is no other country that did more than the US

460
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 3: to protect Israel. He goes on to say, netnya who's

461
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 3: words were incorrect, I don't know what was going through

462
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 3: his mind. Ambassador, what went through your mind when you

463
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 3: heard those words from Menou?

464
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 7: Right, these are very hot things to pass because they

465
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 7: involved diplomatic behind the scenes pressure on one side and

466
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 7: the other for sure, and the administration has acknowledged that

467
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 7: it did hold back on two hundred two thousand pound

468
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 7: bombs several months ago because of the effect on civilian casualties.

469
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 7: That Netaniel was raising involves more recent decisions taken by

470
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 7: Congress that have not yet been fully executed within the bureaucracy.

471
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 7: I've dealt with that bureaucracy for years, and Armship minster Turkey,

472
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 7: in Iraq, it is very slow, it's very opaque. It

473
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 7: could well be that there is no real problem. It

474
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 7: is just bureaucracy. That certainly is what Kirby is suggesting. Nonetheless,

475
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 7: Netanyeo by going public, created yet another tempest in a

476
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 7: chief pot, and we're going to have to see how

477
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 7: this works out. But his people aren't talking with the

478
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 7: White House on next steps if there is a ceasefire,

479
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 7: and that's the good news.

480
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 3: And of course, just over a month from now, on

481
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 3: July twenty fourth, Netyahoo is planning to be here in

482
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 3: Washington for a joint address to Congress and address that

483
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: not all members of the Democratic Party certainly are planning

484
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 3: to attend. Where do you think we will be by

485
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: a month from now when he makes that trip to Washington.

486
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 7: A good point. But what I want to underline is

487
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 7: We're already in a better place. Despite Netanyahu's outburst the

488
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 7: other day, Israel, by advancing this ceasefire proposal, is signaling

489
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 7: it's ready to end the war if it gets the

490
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 7: right conditions for the day after, and the United States

491
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 7: and Israel are actually talking right now on what those

492
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 7: conditions might be. That's the first thing. Secondly, by taking

493
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 7: on American advice on how to conduct the last campaign

494
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 7: in Rafa for the last month, avoiding massive civilian casualties

495
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 7: to the degree scene elsewhere, the Israelis have basically won

496
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 7: a certain amount of support from the United States. Combine

497
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 7: that with their advancing the ceasefire proposal, a lot of

498
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 7: the pressure on the Israelis from the international community, the

499
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 7: UN and human rights groups has diminished significantly because now

500
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 7: it's Hamas that is refusing to enter into negotiations for

501
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 7: a permanency spire, and that gives Israel running room. I

502
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 7: believe that the twenty fourth of July, Netanya will announce

503
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 7: the end of major combat in his readiness to find

504
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 7: a negotiated solution.

505
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 3: Okay, that's quite a call. What about where Israel and

506
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 3: Hesbalah will stand by that time, Well, we have seen

507
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 3: a new front open just as one closed.

508
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 2: I don't so.

509
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 7: Actually, because from a military standpoint, Israel has pretty much finalized,

510
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 7: as I said, the fighting in Gazer. It only has

511
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 7: one division plus involved there, so it now has the

512
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 7: forces to respond if his Bulah were to attack. In

513
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 7: the end, I don't think Israel will attack Isbelah certainly

514
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 7: while Gazar is going on. But once this is all over,

515
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 7: the Israelis will demand, as they should, that in accordance

516
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 7: with the two thousand and six UN resolution that ended

517
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 7: the last exchange of fighting between the two, his Bulah

518
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 7: withdraw north of the Tiny River and reduce its threat

519
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 7: to Israel. If his Bulla does not do that at

520
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 7: that time, then I think we might see a new conflict.

521
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 3: All right, Well, it gives us a lot to pay

522
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 3: attention to. Thank you so much for joining us, Ambassador,

523
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 3: appreciate your time as always. That's Ambassador James Jeffrey, Chair

524
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 3: of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, former

525
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 3: US Ambassador to Iraq and to Turkey, former Ambassador to

526
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: Albania as well, and former Deputy National Security Advisor. The

527
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: man has a lot of titles and we appreciate his

528
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 3: sharing his expertise with us here on Balance of Power.

529
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

530
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud.

531
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 2: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.

532
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

533
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

534
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 3: We'll bring in Andre Gillespie. She is Emory College Associate

535
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: Professor of Political Science. Andre, welcome back to Balance of Power.

536
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us. We've seen recently

537
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 3: on the campaign trail and a number of appearances from

538
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: President Biden, him talking about the Court and the notion

539
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 3: that a second Trump pet presidency could bring two ultra

540
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 3: conservative justices to the Court, that the court is something

541
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 3: that people should vote on. It's the argument he's making.

542
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 3: Is it an argument that is actually likely to translate

543
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: into people voting with that in mind, Well.

544
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 6: Let's put this in a historical context. The Supreme Court

545
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 6: was certainly a galvanizing issue for Republican voters in the

546
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 6: years between Roll versus Wade and the Dobs decision, So

547
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 6: we saw Republicans successfully appeal to social conservatives around changing

548
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 6: the court. What we've seen in public opinion data since

549
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 6: the Dab's decision is that Democrats are now more activated

550
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 6: by kind of abortion. And what the hope in this

551
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 6: strategy is is that they are now more attuned to

552
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 6: issues related to the Supreme Court. And so the same

553
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 6: way that anti abortion activists were motivated by trying to

554
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 6: change the court. When the Supreme Court sort of laws

555
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 6: on reproductive rights kind of went against them, Democrats and

556
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 6: liberals are now hoping that the opposite will work for

557
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 6: them in this particular moment.

558
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 3: And certainly you saw evidence of it working in twenty

559
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: twenty two, but we were much closer to the actual

560
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 3: Dobbs decision at that point. It was still fresh, and

561
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: there's a question of whether it can have the same

562
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 3: galvanizing ability this far removed from Dobbs. But of course,

563
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 3: the Court continually has to decide abortion questions. Last week

564
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 3: they did uphold access to miphipristone, the widely used abortion pill.

565
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 3: They have yet to rule. We're waiting the ruling on

566
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 3: the Idaho case whether abortions can be performed in emergencies

567
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,239
Speaker 3: when the life of the mother is dependent on it.

568
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 3: The state rule outlaws them, Andra, Could that be a

569
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 3: case in which you do see that galvanizing force come back.

570
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 6: Well, Democrats are hoping that by bringing abortion up again

571
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 6: and again and again, that it's priming Democratic leaning voters.

572
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 6: They're likely constituents, young women, you know, in particular, to

573
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 6: be mindful of this issue and to put it at

574
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 6: the top of their list when they're thinking about the

575
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 6: decisions that they're going to be making on voting. And similarly,

576
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 6: the things that are constantly in the news cycle. So

577
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 6: whether it's about mephipristone, whether it is about abortion bands

578
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 6: when the life of the mother is at risk, when

579
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 6: we're talking about miscarriage care and IVF, these are things

580
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 6: that are actually still making reproductive issues a salient issue

581
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 6: for at least a critical segment of the electorate.

582
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 3: Well, when we're considering segments of the electorate, we know

583
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 3: it took many different segments to get Biden elected in

584
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. These suburban women question certainly is what you're

585
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: speaking to, but there's other demographics to consider as well,

586
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 3: including black and Latino voters, which polling suggests are starting

587
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 3: to turn away from President Biden. Not necessarily turned directly

588
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 3: toward Trump, but at least aren't enthusiastic about showing out

589
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: for Biden a second time. Do you believe those polls, Andra.

590
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 6: It's not that I don't believe those polls, but I

591
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 6: think we should just be really aware of what the

592
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 6: limitations of these polls are. We can more accurately assess

593
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 6: shifts in the population if we were talking to a

594
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 6: representative sample of the same people at multiple time points

595
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 6: in a discussion, so panel data would actually be really

596
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 6: ideal to get the shifts. We are using cross sectional data,

597
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 6: where the margins of or big, and so it's really

598
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 6: going to have to take a big shift of movement

599
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 6: in order for us to really be able to stay

600
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 6: with some type of statistical confidence that we see population shifting.

601
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 6: There are folks who are looking at sort of changes

602
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 6: in say the Latino vote population, who may not be

603
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 6: accounting for the fact that Latinos were actually more Republican

604
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 6: than African Americans were, and that's actually been pretty consistent

605
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 6: over time. And you know, one of the things that

606
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 6: has actually hampered sort of interpreting the African American vote

607
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 6: is the fact that we're relying on survey subsamples with

608
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 6: small sizes. So this is not to say that there

609
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 6: isn't a shift underway amongst Latino voters. Colliagu's of mine

610
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 6: who study that, you know, are looking at sort of

611
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 6: the extent to which this is true. And it doesn't

612
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 6: mean that Donald Trump could possibly increase his vote share

613
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,439
Speaker 6: amongst African American voters by a percentage point or two.

614
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 6: But you know, I think looking at a survey sample poll,

615
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 6: even if it says that Trump is polling at thirty

616
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 6: percent when it talk to two hundred black people, is

617
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 6: something that you have to take with a grain of

618
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 6: salt because the margin of error and sort of the

619
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 6: confidence interval for that thirty percent is actually quite big.

620
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 5: All right.

621
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 3: That's an excellent point, Andre, and it gives me a

622
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 3: sense of how you're likely to answer this next question

623
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 3: as well, because I want to point to a Fox

624
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 3: national poll that we just got out again. This is

625
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 3: national President Biden leading former president Trump by two points

626
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 3: fifty percent to forty eight percent. That is a three

627
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 3: point improvement for Biden since last months Fox poll, where

628
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 3: Trump was leading by one point. Can we put much

629
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: credence in that at all? Knowing as well that these

630
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 3: margins are well within the margin of error.

631
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 6: Yes, no, we can't put any It's all within the

632
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 6: margin of air. All these poles tell us is that

633
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 6: this race is going to be close. And so so

634
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 6: we see some movement now, I mean, we'll pay attention

635
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 6: to the trend line over time, and so if we

636
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 6: start to see, you know, one of the candidates break

637
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 6: ahead significantly of the other candidate, we might be able

638
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 6: to point to this moment in time being the start

639
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 6: of that trend line. But you know again, I you know,

640
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 6: I'm not surprised when I see them up by one

641
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 6: or two points. And so, given the fact that the

642
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 6: margins of error usually for a lot of these polls

643
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 6: would say that they one of them would have to

644
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 6: be ahead by six or more percentage points in order

645
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 6: for one of them to statistically be ahead. The idea

646
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 6: that one is up by two in one survey and

647
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 6: then the other one is up by two when the

648
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 6: next survey, it sort of is all kind of well

649
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 6: within the realm of possibility, and it still tells us

650
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 6: the same thing, this race is going to be very close.

651
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, So things like say a presidential debate could be

652
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 3: incredibly important in deciding whether or not there is what

653
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: the outcome is when a race is as close as

654
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 3: this one, Andre, How are you looking at that event,

655
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: which is a week from today, it's next Thursday night.

656
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 3: How pivotal is that going to be for both campaigns?

657
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 6: Well, it's pivotal for a number of reasons. Debates are

658
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 6: really important for folks who have not made up their

659
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 6: minds who need more information. This is going to be

660
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 6: a really important point at which they are able to

661
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 6: gather and form. So how the candidates comport themselves is

662
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 6: actually going to be really important. I think most voters

663
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 6: in this election have already decided who they're going to

664
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 6: vote for. Turnout is going to be the thing that's

665
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:15,320
Speaker 6: most important. So what really matters is after the debates,

666
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 6: how strong are the turnout operations, How strong is the

667
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 6: outreach are both the Trump and the Biden campaigns reaching

668
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 6: out to voters and reminding them to turn out to vote.

669
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,439
Speaker 6: But for that small slver of undecided voters who could

670
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 6: possibly in battleground states determine the outcome of the election,

671
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 6: there could be something that is said, or there could

672
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 6: be a way that one of the candidates acts that

673
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 6: could actually be determinative in helping them decide who to

674
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 6: vote for. So I think what we're lively going to

675
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 6: be looking for is whether or not both Joe Biden

676
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 6: and Donald Trump performed to type, whether or not they

677
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 6: exceed expectations, whether or not one of them makes a

678
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 6: gas that is so shocking that it might cause people

679
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,760
Speaker 6: to kind of change their minds, and by changing their minds.

680
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 6: It could be making a decision to vote for, you know,

681
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:02,760
Speaker 6: one candidate or the other. But the more likely decision

682
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 6: is is it the type of thing that could depress

683
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 6: voter turnout, that can make somebody less likely to want

684
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 6: to turn out and vote?

685
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and turnout. It's going to be everything in an

686
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 3: election that, as you were just saying, is going to

687
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 3: be so incredibly close more. Thank you so much for

688
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 3: joining us, Andra, I mean Andre Gillespie, Emery College Associate

689
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,919
Speaker 3: Professor of Political Science. We appreciate you joining us here

690
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,359
Speaker 3: on Balance of Power. Look forward to getting you back

691
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: on the program. Stonent to Andre's point, as she speaks

692
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 3: about gaffes, in the way that these candidates are conducting

693
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 3: themselves on the stage, it speaks to the idea that

694
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 3: that debate is going to be just as much about

695
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,399
Speaker 3: performance as it is about policy. Considering we're talking about

696
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: the two candidates who will be the oldest ever to

697
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 3: go head to head like this, Donald Trump having just

698
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 3: turned seventy eight, Joe Biden, of course, being an octagenarian

699
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 3: at eighty one. We have so much to look forward

700
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 3: to as Donald Trump and Joe Biden prepare for this thing.

701
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 3: Joe Biden is heading to Camp David this evening to

702
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 3: get his debate prep underway.

703
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: For more material, play Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

704
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern.

705
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: On APO, car Play and Androud Otto with the Bloomberg

706
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 2: Business App.

707
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

708
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

709
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 3: The federal government was off for Juneteenth yesterday, but some

710
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 3: were still hard at work, including Senator Tim Scott, the

711
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 3: Republican from South Carolina, who we understand to be on

712
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 3: Donald Trump's shortlist for vice president. He was together with

713
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 3: a bunch of big names attending a summit slash fundraiser

714
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 3: with the likes of Bill Ackman, Ken Griffin, Marc and Dreesen,

715
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 3: showcasing a powerful and rich network that he has access

716
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 3: to as he devised to join Donald Trump on the ticket.

717
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 3: Let's bring in now our political panel Jeanie Shanzeno, she

718
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 3: is a Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the

719
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 3: Study of the Presidency and Congress. And Lisa Camuso Miller,

720
00:39:54,920 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 3: former RNC Communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. So, Lisa,

721
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 3: the first to you is the ability to bring in

722
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: money enough to vault Tim Scott to the top of

723
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 3: the VEEP shortlist.

724
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 8: You know, Kayley, that is probably the biggest piece of

725
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 8: this competition right now for Donald Trump is he's looking

726
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 8: at every one of these candidates and how quickly and

727
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 8: how much access they have to resources, and so, yes,

728
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 8: I think the ability to raise money is absolutely one

729
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 8: of those items that he will say is top of

730
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 8: the list because it's really it's going to cost that

731
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 8: much more every single day in order to win back

732
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 8: the White House for him. And so having someone like

733
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 8: Tim Scott who has access to those resources, I think

734
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 8: still very much makes him a very very viable candidate

735
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 8: for the VP, for the vice presidents.

736
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 3: Of course, he's not the only one that has that.

737
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 3: Senator jd Vance of Ohio is a former venture capitalist.

738
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 3: He's a Peter tiel Acoalte. He's hosted fundraisers for Donald

739
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 3: Trump out in San Francisco. You have Governor Doug Bergham,

740
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 3: who is a self made multime millionaire many times over

741
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 3: after selling his company to Microsoft Genie. It feels like

742
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: a lot of these candidates do have the money thing

743
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 3: in common. So what differentiates them?

744
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, you have a lot of big fundraiser

745
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,479
Speaker 9: there and Tim Scott has proven this over and over again.

746
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 9: He is a formidable fundraiser and the juneteenth fundraiser was

747
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 9: a big one for him. That said, he is lacking

748
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 9: to a certain extent something that is also important for

749
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 9: a VP candidate and for Donald Trump in particular, and

750
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 9: that's the ability to perform well on TV. Once again, Sunday,

751
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 9: we saw him on the Sunday Shows where he continued

752
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 9: to be pressed on where he stands on things like

753
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 9: bump stocks, and he had trouble answering in a way

754
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 9: that appeared authentic and strong. Similarly, a month ago or

755
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 9: about a month ago, when he was on Meet the

756
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 9: Press with Kirsten Welker and he was asked repeatedly, would

757
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 9: you certify the twenty twenty four election, And he repeatedly

758
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,760
Speaker 9: kept getting pressed and had difficulty answering beyond Donald Trump

759
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 9: will win. So his ability to perform on television, on

760
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 9: the stump, so to speak, is something else to keep

761
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,919
Speaker 9: in mind, because that's something any presidential candidate would want

762
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 9: in a vice president, and of course Donald Trump in particular.

763
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 3: Do we think Donald Trump really wants that and a

764
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 3: vice president? Though Lisa knowing that Donald Trump does have

765
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 3: a certain command of media attention.

766
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 8: I think Genny makes a really good point, and I

767
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 8: think that that is absolutely something he's going to need.

768
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 8: As much as he absolutely demands and sucks the oxygen

769
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 8: out of every conversation, he does really need someone that

770
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 8: can defend and can step forward. He has to have that.

771
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 8: He did not have that with Mike Pence. To some degree,

772
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 8: people looked at that as an example of what needs

773
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 8: to change, as if we look to another Trump administration,

774
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 8: He's absolutely going to want someone that can be viable,

775
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 8: can be strong, and can be defensive of this administration

776
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 8: if in fact that Trump's return to the White House,

777
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 8: And so if you're him, you're looking for someone that

778
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 8: can be smart and can be articulate and can command

779
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 8: the room, because there's nothing Trump wants more than someone

780
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 8: to distract from the fact that Trump is really strong

781
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 8: when it relates to communicating his message.

782
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 3: Well, Trump doesn't look particularly strong in terms of one

783
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 3: new poll that we got from Fox. There's many caveats

784
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 3: I could go through here, one being this is a

785
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 3: national poll, another being that it is only June. It's

786
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 3: still pretty early. We don't even know who is on

787
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 3: the ticket with Donald Trump at this point. But in

788
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 3: this Fox poll, President Biden leads Donald Trump by two

789
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: points fifty to forty eight. That's a three point improvement

790
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 3: for Biden over their poll from last month, where Trump

791
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 3: led by one point. Another caveat here, Genie, is that

792
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: this is all within the margin of error. But if

793
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 3: we see poles like this again, does it show that

794
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 3: maybe we're going to start to see a new pattern

795
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 3: established post Trump conviction.

796
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 9: Yeah, that pesky marge of error. And I'm so glad

797
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 9: you raised that because I think this just supports everything

798
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 9: we've talked about, which is that this is a jump ball,

799
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 9: This is too close to call. You know, this is

800
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 9: the right trajectory to your point for Joe Biden, you know,

801
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 9: to be up three since the last.

802
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 5: Bowl they did.

803
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 9: Again, it's national within the margin. So this is continues

804
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 9: to be a dead heat now if he keeps moving

805
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 9: in this direction and we get into July, August, September,

806
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 9: and more and more polls show this. Yes, and it's

807
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 9: obviously the way he wants to move, but it is

808
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 9: still too close for anybody to call at this point.

809
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 9: And you know, Joe Biden knows that, and That's why

810
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 9: they've been on a swing in terms of they're advertising,

811
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 9: you know, trying to fundraise to keep up with Donald Trump,

812
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 9: because this is a formidable opponent for Joe Biden.

813
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 3: Well, Genie, I'm glad you brought up fundraising because we

814
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 3: know Donald Trump had a really good fundraising month in

815
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,760
Speaker 3: the month of May one hundred and forty one million dollars.

816
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 3: A lot of that came after his conviction in court

817
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 3: in New York. We don't know what Joe Biden's numbers

818
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 3: looked like. We're about to find out within the next

819
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 3: twenty four hours because the FEC demands it. He's facing

820
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 3: a deadline. How bad would be bad for Joe Biden, Jeannie,

821
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 3: how low that number could be?

822
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, since we're looking at, you know, something

823
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 9: really historic from the Trump campaign, you know, in the

824
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 9: one hundred and forty one million range, if it holds up,

825
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 9: you know, Joe Biden certainly wants to keep abreast of that.

826
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 9: I wouldn't put a number on how bad would be bad,

827
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 9: but he did have a good five day swing about

828
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 9: forty million, So they want to come in strong, and

829
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 9: he wants to maintain at least even or the lead

830
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 9: that he had before. But you know, if he's around

831
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 9: forty million, fifty million, I think anything above that they're

832
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 9: going to feel okay with that. Obviously they'd like to

833
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 9: be a lot closer, and if they break big that

834
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 9: would be great. Much below that is a big problem.

835
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,320
Speaker 3: Lisa, I don't know if you're willing to put numbers

836
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 3: on it as well. But of course it's not just

837
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 3: the amount raised in May, it's what the different cash

838
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 3: cushions look like, because so far in this campaign, the

839
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 3: Joe Biden cash pile has been significantly larger than the

840
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 3: Trump cash pile. If that starts going away, does the

841
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:18,959
Speaker 3: advantage too.

842
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's hard to say what the number would be, Kelly,

843
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 8: but I think that the point that Genie's made is

844
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 8: correct is that he's going to want to stay at

845
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:31,400
Speaker 8: pace with the Saint with the Republican Canada because he

846
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 8: wants to make sure that he has enough cash on

847
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,359
Speaker 8: hand and enough access to resources so that he can

848
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 8: then really activate when he needs to. But the other

849
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 8: thing too is that he probably doesn't need to wait

850
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 8: too long to get going on messaging and spending and advertising,

851
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 8: because the truth of it is is that people are

852
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 8: starting to harden their decisions already, as you're seeing in

853
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 8: this very very close race. Genie's point about the fact

854
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 8: that it's in the margin of error and there's only

855
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 8: up a couple of points. This is going to be

856
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 8: the narrowest election in the history of the country, according

857
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 8: to every point and every smart political scientist I've spoken to,

858
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 8: And that alone tells me that he needs to not

859
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 8: only be raising, but he also needs to be spending

860
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 8: in order to get people to his side of thinking

861
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 8: and to the ballot box in favor of Joe Biden.

862
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 3: And perhaps also need to be performing at say a

863
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 3: presidential debate that happens one week from tonight, Lisa, who

864
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 3: are the stakes higher for knowing that Joe Biden, there

865
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 3: is an expectation that as an eighty one year old,

866
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 3: perhaps he might be low energy, maybe a low bar

867
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 3: to exceed relative to Donald Trump, who has the greatest

868
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 3: opportunity to net a win next Thursday, evening Joe Biden.

869
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 8: Absolutely, Joe Biden, I mean, I think the president absolutely

870
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 8: has to perform strongly. He has to show that he's deaf,

871
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 8: that he can answer quickly, that he can be perceived

872
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 8: to have full command.

873
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 5: Of the issues.

874
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 8: I mean, that's this is the biggest challenge he has

875
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 8: to get over, is the fact that people have perceived

876
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 8: the fact that he's over eighty, that he's it's time

877
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 8: for him to step aside and not be in the

878
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 8: White House anymore. And so he has to show strength

879
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 8: and show command of this debate. And look, it's like

880
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 8: it's a car crash. We know that's going to happen already.

881
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 8: I think it's probably going to be the most watched

882
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 8: presidential debate ever in the history of I mean, if

883
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:13,479
Speaker 8: we're in the middle of the summer, I mean people

884
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 8: are not necessarily watching any big sporting events next Thursday.

885
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 8: I think this is I think the stakes are incredibly

886
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 8: high for the incumbent, and as long as Donald Trump

887
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 8: doesn't do any damage, as long as he is measured,

888
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 8: as you were discussing earlier in the show, if he's measured,

889
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 8: if he's thoughtful, if he's not full of gaffs, he

890
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 8: nets the win on this as far as I'm concerned.

891
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 8: So I think that Joe Biden absolutely has the most

892
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 8: to lose as this debate on folds, because for Donald Trump,

893
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 8: they've already set the stage and he will continue to

894
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 8: do that with his audience, because if things don't go

895
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 8: the way he likes it to go, he'll tell people

896
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 8: exactly how to think about it.

897
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 3: Genie, we have less than a minute left, but do

898
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 3: you agree with Lisa.

899
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 9: Actually think that they both have to go into this

900
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 9: and number one, do no harm. I mean, the biggest

901
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 9: problem for both of them is if they harm themselves.

902
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,959
Speaker 9: So that's the number one rule. And I do think

903
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 9: we are hearing some interesting change in the rhetoric out

904
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 9: of the Trump campaign and Trump himself over the last

905
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,399
Speaker 9: few days. They know they have set expectations for Joe

906
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 9: Biden so low that if he just comes on stage

907
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 9: and is barely afloat, he is going to surpass those

908
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 9: And so now you see the Trump campaign saying, well,

909
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 9: this is rigged against us, you know, blah blah blah.

910
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 9: So I think they are wising up to the fact

911
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:32,959
Speaker 9: that the expectations game has gotten away from them here

912
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 9: and that's a problem. But they both have to perform.

913
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 9: But that means do no harm, don't damage yourself, and

914
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 9: that's hard on both of their side, particularly for Trump

915
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 9: who likes to talk all right.

916
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 3: Jeanie Shanzano and Lisa Camuso Miller. Thank you both for

917
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 3: talking to me today. Appreciate your time.

918
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

919
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 4: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify,

920
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,359
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

921
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

922
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.