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Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatrati. This week, the election

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Speaker 1: everyone's talking about. I didn't become a journalist to try

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Speaker 1: to predict what political leaders will do next, But when

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Speaker 1: the climate stakes are as high as they are for

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Speaker 1: the US presidential election in November, we have to understand

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Speaker 1: what the world could look like depending on which way

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Speaker 1: the voters swing. So far, this has been a ViBe's election.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are offering very different vibes

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Speaker 1: on climate policy. But beyond the vibes, there are actual

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Speaker 1: policies that they do have in mind, and those policies

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Speaker 1: would lead to very different worlds. To better understand what

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Speaker 1: kind of world we might be living in come January,

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Speaker 1: it's worth grappling with the impacts of those policies. And

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Speaker 1: there's no one better that I could discuss this than

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Speaker 1: with my colleague Jen de Louis. She's Bloomberg's Energy and

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Speaker 1: environment policy reporter based in DC, and she's always helped

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Speaker 1: me make sense of the ins and outs and complexities

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Speaker 1: of American politics. Jen, Welcome to the show.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Axxan. I'm glad to be here.

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Speaker 1: This presidential race did change dramatically two months ago when

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden announced that he wasn't running for a second term,

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Speaker 1: and then Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, it's a

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Speaker 1: new race. Before that, Trump seemed to be in lead,

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Speaker 1: and he did talk about what he wanted to do

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Speaker 1: with climate policy. He wanted to overturn a lot of

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Speaker 1: the measures and the Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden

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Speaker 1: passed in twenty twenty two. So if Trump is elected,

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Speaker 1: what do you think he could do to undo the IRA?

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Speaker 2: Quite a bit. Actually, he would need to work with

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Speaker 2: Congress to achieve a real wholesale repealing of the IRA,

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Speaker 2: and frankly that would require support from Republicans and Democrats

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Speaker 2: that no one anticipates. He would have to really tear

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Speaker 2: it out, root and limb. Right now, the likeliest scenario

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Speaker 2: is that both chambers of Congress flip, so that means

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Speaker 2: Democrats would win control of the House and Republicans would

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Speaker 2: take over the Senate. And just as important as which

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Speaker 2: party holds the gavel in each of those chambers is

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Speaker 2: their margin of control. Under almost any scenario, the Senate

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Speaker 2: appears likely to remain narrowly divided, and that will make

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Speaker 2: it difficult for any future president to advance substantive legislation,

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Speaker 2: but administratively, he can do things around the edges of

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Speaker 2: the IRA to chip away at and limit its impact. So,

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Speaker 2: for instance, the Treasury Department under Trump could write new

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Speaker 2: guidelines for tax credits under the IRA, like those for

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles, so they're harder to claim. He'd also have

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Speaker 2: wide birth to make good on his threat to claw

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Speaker 2: back unspent IRA money, especially in the form of grants

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Speaker 2: and loans, you know, basically the cash that hasn't gone

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Speaker 2: out the door. The Biden administration has been working really

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Speaker 2: hard to get grants and loans awarded, but some of

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Speaker 2: those can actually even be distributed till future years under

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Speaker 2: the law, and it'd be really easy for President Trump

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Speaker 2: to just hit the pause button on any spending that

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Speaker 2: hasn't gone out the door under the IRA. We're talking

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Speaker 2: about tens of billions of dollars still potentially in this category.

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Speaker 2: So that's what he can do on the IRA. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot he can also do to address and roll

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Speaker 2: back climate regulations that have been put in place by

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Speaker 2: Biden over the last four years.

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Speaker 1: What kind of legislations are those right.

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Speaker 2: So we could see a replay of a lot of

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Speaker 2: what Trump did his first term in office to undo

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Speaker 2: Obama era climate regulations, except this time he would of

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Speaker 2: course be attacking Biden era. It's a similar playbook to

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Speaker 2: what he employed the first time around. It's just significantly

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Speaker 2: amped up and likely benefiting from more experienced advisors in

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Speaker 2: key roles, folks who've been around maybe helped them along

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Speaker 2: the last time he was in office. Starting on day one,

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Speaker 2: he's already said he intends to direct federal agencies to

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Speaker 2: begin repealing and replacing climate regulations. Particularly two EPA rules

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Speaker 2: are in the crosshairs. That includes measures that crack down

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Speaker 2: on greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation and power sectors.

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Speaker 2: For the transportation sector, the big target is an EPA

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Speaker 2: rule setting tailpipe pollution limits for cars and trucks. It's

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Speaker 2: so strict that it compels automakers to sell a lot

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Speaker 2: more electric and hybrid vehicles between twenty twenty seven and

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty two. It's technically a tech neutral regulation, but

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Speaker 2: Trump and other opponents derided as an evy mandate since

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Speaker 2: automakers really can't comply just by selling conventional cars, they

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Speaker 2: have to clean up their overall fleet of vehicles to

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Speaker 2: hit these targets. And this is a really important rule.

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Speaker 2: The transportation sector in the US is the largest source

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Speaker 2: of the country's greenhouse gas emissions, about twenty eight percent

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Speaker 2: of the total, and within that cars, pickups, and SUVs

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Speaker 2: are responsible for about sixty percent, fifty eight to sixty

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Speaker 2: percent of those. So this is really important for the

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Speaker 2: US to hit its climate targets, this rule, and yet

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Speaker 2: Trump has made you know, no bones about it. He's

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Speaker 2: going to target this on day one and set that

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Speaker 2: repeal in motion on day one. He's also repeatedly vowed

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Speaker 2: to terminate the EPA's power plant rule. That's there's at

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Speaker 2: least one regulation that's in the cross as here. It's

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Speaker 2: an EPA rule that limits greenhouse gas emissions from the

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Speaker 2: nation's current fleet of coal power plants, as well as

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Speaker 2: many new gas plants. Trump used a similar strategy last time,

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Speaker 2: so once again he's going back to He would be

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Speaker 2: going back to that playbook from his first term in office,

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Speaker 2: using a similar strategy to what he did to attack

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Speaker 2: Obama's Clean Power Plan in the last term. He replaced

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Speaker 2: that with a rule that required only modest emission productions

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Speaker 2: at the nation's power plants really just you know, what

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Speaker 2: could be achieved through simple improvements and efficiency. And here,

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Speaker 2: if he were to wipe away the Biden rule, you

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Speaker 2: could see a prolonging of the lifespan for American coal

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Speaker 2: plants that otherwise would really have to shut down over

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Speaker 2: the next decade. And it also could encourage the construction

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Speaker 2: of new gas plants, something he's championed.

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Speaker 1: And on the EV side, there is Elon Musk who

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Speaker 1: is now supporting Donald Trump, and some of it doesn't

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Speaker 1: make sense right. Elon does want to sell more electric vehicles,

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Speaker 1: but if Trump is going to attack this rule that

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Speaker 1: will allow carmakers to sell more gascars, what is in

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Speaker 1: it for Elon to support Trump.

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Speaker 2: It's important to realize that Elon Musk has, of course

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Speaker 2: a number of interests beyond just Tesla and EV's. But

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Speaker 2: we've seen, you know, this friendship for alliance and financial

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Speaker 2: support with Trump is obviously correlated with a shifting in

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Speaker 2: the former president's rhetoric around EV's. Tesla has of course

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Speaker 2: a huge first mover advantage in the US, and that

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Speaker 2: means that it's really already benefited from years selling its

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Speaker 2: cars with the benefit of the EV tax credit even

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Speaker 2: before the IRA expanded it. So at this point, you know,

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Speaker 2: while the EV tax credit undoubtedly helps encourage sales, it's

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Speaker 2: arguably more important for Tesla's rivals, for the companies that

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Speaker 2: haven't yet significantly penetrated the EV market in the US

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Speaker 2: or found a loyal following. So I think, you know

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Speaker 2: that's for Tesla supporters. You know, they can perhaps live

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Speaker 2: without this credit in a way that other legacy automakers

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Speaker 2: trying to make evs cannot.

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Speaker 1: Now, what I didn't hear you say is Project twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five, because it seems like if you're reading any

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Speaker 1: coverage of elections, project twenty twenty five comes up. Why

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Speaker 1: is that? Why did you not refer to it?

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Speaker 2: So Trump has of course disavowed the policy blueprint assembled

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Speaker 2: by the Heritage Foundation and dozens of other conservative groups

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Speaker 2: that we know as Project twenty twenty five. It's gotten

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Speaker 2: a lot of attention during this campaign cycle. What's interesting

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Speaker 2: to me, you know, covering energy and environment climate INBC

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Speaker 2: for many, many years now, is that the blueprint that

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Speaker 2: was advanced really included a lot of ideas that were

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Speaker 2: either at least in the energy and environment space, that

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Speaker 2: were either pursued during Trump's first term in office, or

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Speaker 2: are like priorities that are long held by many conservatives

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Speaker 2: in Congress and in Washington. So much of what I

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Speaker 2: saw in the Blueprint when it was, you know, released

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Speaker 2: quite a long time ago, is not actually surprising to find.

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Speaker 2: It's a rehash of a lot of ideas that have

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Speaker 2: been percolating and circulating in DC for a long time. So,

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Speaker 2: for instance, you know, Project twenty twenty five proposed making

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Speaker 2: more federal land available for oil and gas leasing and

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Speaker 2: lowering kind of the costs and hurdles to development in

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Speaker 2: that territory. Well, that's been an objective of both the

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Speaker 2: oil industry and many many Republicans for years. You know,

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Speaker 2: the Blueprint would also scale back the reach of the EPA.

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Speaker 2: It would scale back energy efficiency requirements for household appliances.

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Speaker 2: These are efforts that were both undertaken when Trump was

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Speaker 2: last in the White House and that we would expect

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Speaker 2: to see a repeat of if he were elected again,

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Speaker 2: regardless of whether the Heritage Foundation or other conservative groups

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Speaker 2: had advanced it in this formal agenda. So I think

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Speaker 2: it's important to take Project twenty twenty five seriously. Of course,

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Speaker 2: you know, This is a companium of ideas that are

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Speaker 2: likely to find purchase in a future administration, even if

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Speaker 2: the former president has disavowed their work product. But I

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Speaker 2: also think it's important to realize that this is old

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Speaker 2: had in some ways, these are ideas that have been

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Speaker 2: around a long time in the energy environment space.

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Speaker 1: And talking of no surprises, we've talked about what domestic

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Speaker 1: impact Trump could have, there's also some predictable international impact.

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Speaker 1: The last time around President Trump pulled the US out

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Speaker 1: of the Paris Agreement, he said he'll do it again

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Speaker 1: this time.

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Speaker 2: Right absolutely, you know, he has fully committed to once

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Speaker 2: again exit what he calls kind of the horrendously unfair

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Speaker 2: Paris Climate Accord. Only this time he could actually start

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Speaker 2: the process his first day in office. Last time, Remember

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Speaker 2: he had to deliberate over it. He actually didn't have

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Speaker 2: his mind fully made up initially. And this time the

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Speaker 2: US could actually be out of the deal just one

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Speaker 2: year after he embarks on that process of exiting the accord,

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Speaker 2: just because of the nature of the way it was

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Speaker 2: written and bound to him the first four years.

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Speaker 1: Well, as reporters, I think we should also fact check

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Speaker 1: the horrendously unfair part by acknowledging that the US is

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Speaker 1: the world's largest greenhouse gas eimeter cumulatively in history, and

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Speaker 1: of course the second largest emeter on an annual basis

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Speaker 1: still today. And what is definitely horrenfteously unfair is that

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Speaker 1: climate impact does affect the poorest around the world.

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Speaker 2: Right and Trump could actually go further and abandoned the

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Speaker 2: UNF Triple C, the Framework Convention on Climate Change that

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Speaker 2: underpins it. And if leaving Paris is a potentially temporary

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Speaker 2: blow to climate plumacy, then leaving the UNF Triple C

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Speaker 2: would be a figurative bomb and climate diplomacy with years

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Speaker 2: of fallout. And what's interesting about this is truly the

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Speaker 2: potentially long repercussions for the US and for the world.

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Speaker 2: The UNF Triple C is a treaty. It was ratified

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Speaker 2: by the US Senate in nineteen ninety two, and if

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Speaker 2: Trump removes US support, it could require another two thirds

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Speaker 2: vote by the US Senate to get the country back in,

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Speaker 2: and it really could take years to muster the potentially

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Speaker 2: required support to get the US back in, even if

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Speaker 2: you had a supportive president in the White House.

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Speaker 1: So far, we've talked a lot about what could go

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Speaker 1: wrong on climate policy if President Trump is re elected.

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Speaker 1: After the break, we'll look at what kind of climate

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Speaker 1: policy i Kamala harris presidency might bring. By the way,

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Speaker 1: if you're enjoying this episode, please take a moment to

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Speaker 1: rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

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Speaker 1: It helps other listeners find the show. Jen I mentioned

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Speaker 1: this being a wives election, and reporters have criticized Harris

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Speaker 1: for not being detailed enough in her policy proposals on climate.

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Speaker 1: In particular, we know that she previously backed the Green

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Speaker 1: New Deal when she was running as a presidential candidate

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Speaker 1: back in the twenty twenty elections. At that time, she

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Speaker 1: opposed fracking, but now she's changed tone. What else do

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Speaker 1: we know about her thinking on climate today and the

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Speaker 1: kinds of policies that she might be spearheading if she's elected.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'd say, frustratingly, we don't know enough. I'm a

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Speaker 2: reporter who craves a lot more detailed than we're seeing

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Speaker 2: from the campaign. It is important to appreciate that Harris

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Speaker 2: was essentially thrust into the middle of a general election

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Speaker 2: campaign where she is quartering all voters. In a primary,

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Speaker 2: we typically would see candidates tacked to the outer ends

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Speaker 2: of their party. A Democrat would typically embrace more progressive

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Speaker 2: policies and more climate forward agenda. And the general election,

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Speaker 2: you know, it's seemingly working well for Harris to avoid

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Speaker 2: talking about details that potentially could alienate more moderate voters

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Speaker 2: who aren't necessarily keen on a lot of aggressive climate action.

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Speaker 2: But campaigning is not governing, and Harris really can do

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Speaker 2: a lot administratively, and we would expect her to really

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Speaker 2: continue building on Biden's climate legacy, building on the Inflation

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Speaker 2: Reduction Act, even administratively. So you know, a top priority

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Speaker 2: is a rather mundane sounding one. It's really continuing to

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Speaker 2: implement the Inflation Reduction Act. You know, there's a bit

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Speaker 2: of a temptation, I think by folks who work in

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Speaker 2: the space to believe that, you know, two years after

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Speaker 2: the law's enactment, it's all finished ground. You know, we

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Speaker 2: can move on to the next step and addressing and

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Speaker 2: improving US climate policy. But there's still tremendous work to

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Speaker 2: get the i RaSE program running, to get dollars flowing.

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Speaker 2: The Treasury Department in the US still hasn't finished writing

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Speaker 2: rules for how people can claim tax credits under the law,

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Speaker 2: including those governing hydrogen production and clean electricity. So there's

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Speaker 2: just a lot of administrative work to be done to

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Speaker 2: kind of unstick this process to accelerate deployment. I talk

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Speaker 2: with manufacturers and renewable power developers all the time who

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Speaker 2: say they need the government to do more to accelerate deployment,

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Speaker 2: to get these tax credits flowing, and frankly, to deal

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Speaker 2: with funding and permitting bottlenecks. So that's another really important

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Speaker 2: thing that folks are expecting Harris to work on if

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Speaker 2: she's elected and it's not resolved by Congress later this year,

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Speaker 2: Really tackling the permitting challenge that is holding back, you know,

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Speaker 2: renewables as well as traditional fossil fuel projects. They're just

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Speaker 2: mounting concerns about the hurdles to getting projects permitted and

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Speaker 2: connected to the grid. And you know, while big permitting

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Speaker 2: reform really does require action from Congress and Harris may

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Speaker 2: or may not have that kind of supportive environment on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, there is administrative work she could do to

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Speaker 2: accelerate transmission upgrades and get deployment moving faster.

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Speaker 1: With Trump's policy, we talked about how ruling back tailpipe

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Speaker 1: emissions could really have an impact on transport emissions, which

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Speaker 1: is the largest portion of US emissions, but of course

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Speaker 1: that's still only twenty eight percent. Is all this other

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Speaker 1: stuff that also needs to be decobonized.

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Speaker 2: Right exactly, And we expect a Harris administration would move

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Speaker 2: to impose new rules limiting greenhouse gas emissions from more sources.

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Speaker 2: That includes existing natural gas plants that are going to

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Speaker 2: be asked to produce power longer and harder for meeting

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Speaker 2: the demand that's coming from AI and fecturing. It also

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Speaker 2: includes industrial facilities like steel mills and cement plants, which

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Speaker 2: right now produce about a quarter of US greenhouse gas emissions,

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Speaker 2: So we could expect EPA rules confronting both of those facilities.

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Speaker 1: One thing that climate reporters notice at the Democratic Convention

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Speaker 1: is how little Kamala Harris talked about climate She didn't

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Speaker 1: really highlight the green achievements made by President Biden's administration,

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Speaker 1: and climate change only got a passing mention anyway. Then

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Speaker 1: later during the debate between President Trump and Vice President

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, we heard her talk about the surge in

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Speaker 1: USR production and a need to reduce American reliance on

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Speaker 1: foreign oil. So so far she said little on climate

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Speaker 1: policy directly to reporters, But what she is saying on

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Speaker 1: the public stage, what do you make of it?

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Speaker 2: I make of it that she feels like she really

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Speaker 2: needs to win Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a politically important state

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Speaker 2: with a lot of votes in the electoral college, which

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Speaker 2: is what really wins the presidency in the US. It

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Speaker 2: also happens to be a top natural gas producer, and

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Speaker 2: so she's trying very hard in this general election clearly

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Speaker 2: to thread the needle to you know, support broadly action

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Speaker 2: on clean energy that will create jobs for Americans, but

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Speaker 2: also throw a bone to supporters of fossil fuels and

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Speaker 2: say I'm not going to abandon oil and gas if elected.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to try to ban cracking, a position

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Speaker 2: I held back in twenty nineteen. It's really, you know,

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Speaker 2: a bid to court moderate voters, especially in Pennsylvania, which

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Speaker 2: is just such an important swing state for her to win.

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Speaker 1: But another way to think about what's happening with the

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Speaker 1: climate conversation in twenty twenty four is, to me, it

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Speaker 1: feels like is going back to normal because US presidential

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Speaker 1: candidates in general don't talk about climate that much, if anything,

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Speaker 1: that twenty twenty election was an anomaly where because of

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Speaker 1: the progressive ing of the Democratic Party, you know, Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden was made to talk about climate and then deliver

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Speaker 1: on climate police. See, do you think that's right, that

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty was the aberration and we're just back to

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Speaker 1: normal now, even as we should note the planet is

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Speaker 1: warming and Foster.

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Speaker 2: I tend to think twenty twenty is going to be

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Speaker 2: more the normal state of affairs. And what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: now is the exception just because of this unusual presidential

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Speaker 2: election that you know, basically saw the introduction of a

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Speaker 2: Democratic nominee into a general election contest. You know, we've

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Speaker 2: moved right into a space where talking about climate can

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Speaker 2: seem polarizing to a certain segment of US voters. And

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Speaker 2: so you have Trump using it to bash the Harris administration,

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Speaker 2: talking about what he calls the green new scam, and

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Speaker 2: you have Harris tiptoeing around all of this stuff. You know,

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Speaker 2: my sense is that the urgency of the climate crisis

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Speaker 2: is going to make the twenty twenty four cycle and

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Speaker 2: the way it addressed climate change more of an anomaly.

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Speaker 2: You know, we would expect Harris Worshi in a primary

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Speaker 2: contest to be talking a lot more about all of this.

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Speaker 1: Well, I did not think we'll come to a hopeful

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Speaker 1: note towards the end of a conversation about US climate policy.

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Speaker 1: But way to get us here, Jen, Now, clearly one

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Speaker 1: of the candidates doesn't see much benefit talking about climate policy.

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Speaker 1: You and I do, and I've told you this before,

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Speaker 1: but it is an ongoing source of irritation to me

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Speaker 1: that the US, with all its political power, its intellectual heft,

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Speaker 1: it's huge amount of capital, doesn't do more on climate.

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Speaker 1: So if you will for a moment, imagine with me

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Speaker 1: what the US could do with the president who prioritized climate.

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Speaker 1: We saw some of that under a President Biden, but

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Speaker 1: there's so much more. What do you think the best

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Speaker 1: case scenario could look like.

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Speaker 2: Let's assume in this world that Kamala Harris is elected

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Speaker 2: and she also is working with a Democratic majority in

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Speaker 2: control of the House and the Senate. In the Senate

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Speaker 2: majority Leader Chuck Shumer already committed to taking another bite

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Speaker 2: at the climate apple. So we could see some kind

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Speaker 2: of IRA two point zero that could take the form

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Speaker 2: of another attempt at something that the Biden administration toyed

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Speaker 2: with and couldn't get across the finish line in the

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Speaker 2: IRA A clean Electricity performance program. That initiative basically would

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Speaker 2: involve government grants that are awarded to electric utilities as

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Speaker 2: long as they're hitting annual clean electricity targets, as long

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Speaker 2: as they're cleaning up the emissions from their power generation.

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Speaker 2: And conversely, you know, laggard utilities that aren't hitting their

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Speaker 2: marks would have to pay fees to the federal government.

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Speaker 2: You know, critics label taxes on fostle fuel generation. Again,

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Speaker 2: this idea was popular among many climate activists, you know,

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Speaker 2: three years ago, but it just was a little too

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Speaker 2: polarizing to make it into the final IRA deal. But

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Speaker 2: maybe it could be revived in a world where Democrats

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Speaker 2: have you know, all three centers of power in Washington.

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Speaker 2: We also would expect to see really aggressive action potentially

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Speaker 2: in this world on baking carbon intensity into trade policy.

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Speaker 2: You know. One of the things that has gotten a

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Speaker 2: lot of tongues wagging in DC recently is an opinion

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Speaker 2: piece that was put forward by Brian Deese. He was

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Speaker 2: an economic advisor to both Biden and Obama. He's now

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Speaker 2: actually advising the Harris campaign, and he basically outlined an

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Speaker 2: ambitious vision for a new Marshall Plan for clean energy

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Speaker 2: that would basically use US financing to encourage other countries

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Speaker 2: to deploy clean energy, and the hook is they'd be

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Speaker 2: using clean tech produced in the US. Now, this is

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Speaker 2: a big, a bold, a pricey plan. It's one that

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Speaker 2: really would require support from Congress to be fully realized.

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Speaker 2: And so you know, that's kind of in that category

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Speaker 2: of dream big. Caveat is that even if you're not

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Speaker 2: dreaming big, even if Harris were elected but was working

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Speaker 2: with a Republican Congress administratively, we can anticipate a little

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Speaker 2: bit more work to bake carbon intensity into trade policy

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Speaker 2: just by virtue of the fact that the EU is

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Speaker 2: already leading us there.

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Speaker 1: Well, that is dreaming big, because right now the US

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Speaker 1: does not make very much your solar panels, batteries, winterbines,

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Speaker 1: or the kinds of stuff that we really want to deploy.

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Speaker 1: But as you said, the US has to start to

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Speaker 1: dream big. Thank you, Jennifer, helping us make sense of this.

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Speaker 1: We will talk a lot more about US climate policy

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Speaker 1: over the next couple of months, and of course I

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Speaker 1: am looking forward to seeing you at COP twenty nine

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Speaker 1: in baku in azerbai Chan. Thanks ash that, thank you

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Speaker 1: for listening to Zero. And now for the sound of

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Speaker 1: the week. Rare. You know the thing makes to this

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Speaker 1: so and of course it's like a graveyard former US

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump making the sound of a win turbine.

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Speaker 1: If you have better sounds of winterbines, please do send

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Speaker 1: it to Zero pod at Bloomberg dot net. If you

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