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Speaker 1: Now, Donald Trump will remain on the Michigan Republican primary

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Speaker 1: ballot after ruling today from the state Supreme Court, and

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Speaker 1: the Iowa caucus is the first nominating contest in the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four election cycle. It's just over two weeks away.

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Speaker 1: Joining us now to look at the polling ahead of

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Speaker 1: next year's general election is Mohammad Yunis, Editor in chief

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Speaker 1: of Gallup. How does the polling set up into those primaries.

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Speaker 2: Well, President Biden today sits at the lowest approval rating

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Speaker 2: of any other modern president going into a re electioneer.

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Speaker 2: My colleague Megan Brennan recently did a phenomenal analysis taking

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Speaker 2: our latest presidential approval number, which was essentially running through

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Speaker 2: the month of December, and he sits today at thirty

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Speaker 2: nine percent overall approval.

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Speaker 3: It's a two point increase from the month before. But

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Speaker 3: listen to the other.

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Speaker 2: Presidents who are up against this contest, particularly at this

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Speaker 2: time of their presidency. President Trump forty five percent, President

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Speaker 2: Obama forty three, all the way down to Georgia w

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Speaker 2: HW at fifty one percent, President Reagan and Carter at

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Speaker 2: fifty four. So President Biden goes into this election year

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Speaker 2: with a very challenged approval rating if history is to prove,

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Speaker 2: you know, preshing into the future. Of course, you mentioned

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Speaker 2: that this is a very unique election year. There's a

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Speaker 2: lot of kind of third variable factors, so the historic

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Speaker 2: trend should really be studied closely. But also keep in

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Speaker 2: mind that we are in a hyperpartisan environment. Shows in

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Speaker 2: our data that dates back through every modern president basically

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Speaker 2: that presidents tend to have lower approval ratings and you

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Speaker 2: see it in that list for the most part, with

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Speaker 2: the exception of George W. Bush on the heels of

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Speaker 2: nine to eleven, and that's only continued to worsen in

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Speaker 2: President Biden's time.

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Speaker 1: What are you watching most walking into the Republican primaries

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Speaker 1: in particular, what are the trends?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, one of the things that will really

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Speaker 2: come up a lot, and we did a thirty year

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Speaker 2: analysis on the issues that really drive the partisan wedge

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Speaker 2: the most here in America, and what we found is

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Speaker 2: essentially things around the size of government or the power

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Speaker 2: of big government. And I mentioned that because with President

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Speaker 2: Trump's legal challenges, that's going to be a very powerful

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Speaker 2: message that he's likely to drive throughout the election campaign.

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Speaker 2: As we get closer to the contest. It's important to

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Speaker 2: note also that attitudes around the economy tend to be

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Speaker 2: the most important topic for any voter going into any

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Speaker 2: election in modern times, whether they are a Democrat or

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Speaker 2: a Republican. So how the economy is doing and your

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Speaker 2: previous segment about really the true state of the economy

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Speaker 2: are going to be really critical.

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Speaker 3: When it comes to November.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, that's light years away in terms of how we

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Speaker 2: think the economy will.

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Speaker 3: Be doing right now.

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Speaker 2: We see a relative improvement in our Economic Competence Index

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Speaker 2: at GAL, where we essentially assess people's sentiment about the

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Speaker 2: economy now and where they see it going in the future,

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Speaker 2: but it's still far in the negative and Republicans will

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Speaker 2: definitely be driving that topic.

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Speaker 3: Comb The other really important topic for Republicans will be immigration.

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Speaker 2: One of the most important questions we asked monthly is

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Speaker 2: what is the most important problem facing the country today?

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Speaker 2: And immigration is relatively high for Republicans. It usually is already,

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Speaker 2: but over a third of Republicans say that immigration is

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Speaker 2: the number one problem facing the country, and you're going

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Speaker 2: to see that topic brought up time and again, particularly

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Speaker 2: with the fact pattern at the border, which is really

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Speaker 2: exceptional based just on headlines from this morning in previous

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Speaker 2: couple days.

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Speaker 4: So mohammed the Michigan sup Board leading intact that ruling

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Speaker 4: which allows Donald Trump to stay on the Republican nominique

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Speaker 4: ballots this after Colorado booted him? How does this progress?

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Speaker 4: And we should all bear in mind that none of

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Speaker 4: this is any reflection on whether or not Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: can be on the general election ballot.

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Speaker 2: Well, from our perspective at galap where we're really focused

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Speaker 2: on public opinion and not so much on the federal

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Speaker 2: court system or legal battles from state to court, it's

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Speaker 2: essentially going to be about when people start tuning in.

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Speaker 2: Right now, most Americans are actually not paying that much

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Speaker 2: attention frankly to the election. They're certainly not paying as

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Speaker 2: much attention as we are to it collectively in this conversation.

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Speaker 2: But as the year progresses, and as you mentioned, that's

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Speaker 2: one of the huge kind of third variables in this scenario.

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Speaker 2: As these cases unfold differently for every state, it'll be

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Speaker 2: really interesting to see how much it impacts.

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Speaker 4: Right, So, are you pulling in these states in order

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Speaker 4: to get an early glimbs as to what it might

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Speaker 4: mean for the voters there if they're turned off, if

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Speaker 4: they're in agreement with their state Supreme court or their

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Speaker 4: state high court or what have you. Have we any

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Speaker 4: data on that yet?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, at galap we don't do stateholes. We do

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Speaker 3: the national picture.

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Speaker 2: And one of the things that has really come through

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Speaker 2: in all of that national polling, and we have done

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Speaker 2: quite a bit of it ever since the very beginning

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Speaker 2: of these legal issues, is that for the most part,

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Speaker 2: people who support President Trump don't really it doesn't really

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Speaker 2: impact their perception of him. In fact, the more these

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Speaker 2: cases have come to the forefront, it seems to vary clearly,

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Speaker 2: both in our polls and others. And I think this

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Speaker 2: is a pretty established theory now. It's only solidifying his

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Speaker 2: support with his base. So the notion that any one

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Speaker 2: state government court decision is going to sort of throw

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Speaker 2: off the election or throw off a primary for him

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Speaker 2: is not necessarily something that's rooted in the data. I

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Speaker 2: know that's a very exciting thing to kind of consider happening.

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Speaker 2: But based on the data, what we find is that

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Speaker 2: essentially people that support President Trump are going to continue to.

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Speaker 3: Do so throughout the whole myriad of legal challenges. He

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Speaker 3: now faces.

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Speaker 4: So then we have Jolie run and the known labels

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Speaker 4: unity potential, you know, nominee or not nominee, but at

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Speaker 4: least you know entrant into the race. Have you done

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Speaker 4: any polling on whether that will actually impact things?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, it's really interesting that you bring that up,

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Speaker 2: because one of the really interesting trends right now is

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Speaker 2: the relative high rate of people who identify as independents.

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Speaker 2: Right now today, it's about a third of Americans excuse me,

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Speaker 2: forty two percent of Americans identify as independents. That rate

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Speaker 2: is actually held pretty steady, since it's a high that

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Speaker 2: we at first captured in two thousand and eight, two

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Speaker 2: thousand and nine. So as Lieberman, Kennedy, all of these

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Speaker 2: other leaders step to the four and really try to

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Speaker 2: present an alternative approach that goes kind of beyond the

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Speaker 2: bipartisan paradigm, it will be interesting to see if they

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Speaker 2: can garner that support. Now that being said, it's important

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Speaker 2: to keep in mind, first of all, that national politics

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Speaker 2: and national parties tend to not be very popular when

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Speaker 2: it comes to public opinion. So when we ask people

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Speaker 2: to identify as one group or the other, you're really

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Speaker 2: getting down to the core, and right now there are

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Speaker 2: more people identified as independence than Democrats or Republicans.

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Speaker 3: The other factor with that is.

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Speaker 2: To keep in mind that just because people identify as

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Speaker 2: independ that it doesn't mean they necessarily all agree on

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Speaker 2: a particular ideology or set of policies.

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Speaker 3: A lot of times it essentially is somebody that's refusing

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Speaker 3: to pick a side.

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Speaker 2: Because they're turned off by both, or people who tend

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Speaker 2: to lean in one direction or.

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Speaker 3: Another on one topic or the other.

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Speaker 2: So even though there's a relative high, it doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: these when we think.

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Speaker 1: About the field that is building into next year. Also,

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Speaker 1: we've broken a lot of news on this program about

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Speaker 1: a large Republican donor starting to rally behind Nicki Haley.

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Speaker 1: At what point and what would it take for really

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Speaker 1: more polling to fall into her favor.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I think it's very early.

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Speaker 2: Obviously Nicki Haley is a very competent and effective national

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Speaker 2: figure at this point. It'll be interesting to see how

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Speaker 2: things unfold. We are not polling necessarily on her in

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Speaker 2: depth right now. Her challenge, like all others stepping in

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Speaker 2: before a former president and an incumbent president, is that

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Speaker 2: that name recognition is going to be a challenge now

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Speaker 2: as the public begins to focus on the election, and

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Speaker 2: we're going to see that halfway through the year, it'll

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Speaker 2: be telling whether Nicky Haley can really garner the name

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Speaker 2: recognition that would even give someone who is stepping into

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Speaker 2: with two former presidents current presidents a chance to even

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Speaker 2: be known and heard. We've seen many of the other

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Speaker 2: names that have entered the race haven't really garnered any

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Speaker 2: kind of significant or unique early name recognition factor, whether

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Speaker 2: it's Governor DeSantis or others. So that's always the question

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Speaker 2: with somebody stepping into a contest between very established, home

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Speaker 2: you know, recognized names like Trump and Biden. Halfway through

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Speaker 2: the year, could things change absolutely, But right now we

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Speaker 2: don't see that either on our polls or really in others.

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Speaker 4: All right, Mama, do we have to leave it there?

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Speaker 4: Thank you. I do want to mention though, that you

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Speaker 4: also have a new data out on Israel and one

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Speaker 4: in four Israeli adults currentdis of the existence of an

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Speaker 4: independent Palestinian state. So Israeli is no longer supporting a

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Speaker 4: two state solution, I think is your finding. Our thanks

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Speaker 4: to Gallup editor in chief Mohammad Unice