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Speaker 1: Hi, everybody, and welcome in. This is, of course Friday morning,
Speaker 1: which means Chad Millman will show up for Sharp and Square.
Speaker 1: I've hit my seven on my last ten, been a
Speaker 1: little hot. I don't love the numbers this week. Last
Speaker 1: two weeks, I thought the numbers lined up. I don't
Speaker 1: have even a strongest play this week. I do think
Speaker 1: there's four or five games where I have a feeling
Speaker 1: about it, a strong feeling. But in many instances you'll
Speaker 1: find out from Chad Milman it's a strong feeling that's
Speaker 1: not shared.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: It's it's after a really rocky start. I like where
Speaker 1: we're at. We're gaining momentum, but Sharp and Square is
Speaker 1: coming up in about ten minutes. The game of the
Speaker 1: weekend is the Dallas Cowboys going on the road to
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine Ers. San Francisco has got
Speaker 1: a better roster, Dallas has a better offensive line, although
Speaker 1: I don't think it's as dominant as it's been in
Speaker 1: recent years. I think Dallas, you know, I think Dak.
Speaker 1: The assumption and the feeling is it's been in a
Speaker 1: lot of big games, so he'll be better than Brock
Speaker 1: Pretty here. But there's a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: areas like San Francisco. I think they have far better weapons.
Speaker 1: Brandon Aiyuk's become a one Deebo, Samuel Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle,
Speaker 1: and Brock pretty moves pretty well, certainly better than Garoppolo.
Speaker 1: So I have a coach advantage, I have a weapons advantage,
Speaker 1: And the real difference in the game to me is
Speaker 1: San Francisco is a tremendous red zone team and Dallas isn't.
Speaker 1: And one of the reasons Dallas isn't Tony Potter's a
Speaker 1: good back, he's not a star. You can shade over
Speaker 1: roll your coverage over a CD LAMB. They're not getting
Speaker 1: Dalton Schultz production at tight end because he's now part
Speaker 1: of the Houston Texans. So I just don't think Dallas
Speaker 1: has that much offensive talent. They've paid for Stefan Gilmour,
Speaker 1: Micah Parsons. I think a lot of their better players
Speaker 1: are on the defensive side. Ceedee Lamb, I think is
Speaker 1: really really expos explosive. But I mean, I think we've
Speaker 1: seen this before, is that when you get into the
Speaker 1: red zone, you know teams in the red zone that
Speaker 1: are very good. Buffalo, why josh Allen Baltimore, Why Lamar Jackson?
Speaker 1: You usually need in a cluttered space, a dominating back,
Speaker 1: a dominating physical presence. Nobody can defend Lamar Jackson or
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. Dak is not as mobile as he used
Speaker 1: to be because of you know, lower extremity injuries. They
Speaker 1: have now one great receiver and that's it. Not a
Speaker 1: ton of tight end production. Backs are okay, not special,
Speaker 1: and the O line is injury riddled, though it on
Speaker 1: PFF is ranking better than you'd think. Look at what
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan has to work with the best running back
Speaker 1: arguably in the league, Christian McCaffrey, who's also the best
Speaker 1: receiving running back in the league. A top two to
Speaker 1: three tight end in George Kittle. Brandon Ayuk is now
Speaker 1: a one. He is a bona fide one. Deebo Samuel
Speaker 1: is the ultimate Swiss Army knife in the NFL. And
Speaker 1: Shanahan does a better job at disguising his run plays
Speaker 1: than anybody I've ever seen, all the coaches. So I
Speaker 1: think the game is going to come down to red
Speaker 1: zone efficiency. And I just think San Francisco's got more weapons,
Speaker 1: a better offensive coach. And I think you know the
Speaker 1: thing about Mike McCarthy. As you know Mike McCarthy, we
Speaker 1: talk about players that get underdrafted. Dak was underdrafted. He
Speaker 1: was better than a fourth round pick. Brock Purty as
Speaker 1: a seventh round pick, was underdrafted. I think Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: has a weakness. I don't think he's a great situational
Speaker 1: coach and red zone offensive situational. But I don't think
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy's a bad coach. I just don't trust him
Speaker 1: in key spots. By the way, when Andy Reid was
Speaker 1: in Philadelphia, that was the knock on Andy Reid. He
Speaker 1: wasn't great with the clock, he wasn't great in certain
Speaker 1: situations in the red zone. Well, he had Donovan McNabb.
Speaker 1: Now he's got Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey and but Checko,
Speaker 1: and you know he's got better players. I mean last
Speaker 1: year in the Super Bowl, how good was Philadelphia on
Speaker 1: those zigzag motion plays? So they're just I mean, a
Speaker 1: reality of the red zone is who's your quarterback, who's
Speaker 1: your tight end, how many weapons do you have? And
Speaker 1: are you a great situational coach? Sean Payton has usually
Speaker 1: been very good in the red zone. Good situational coach Shanahan,
Speaker 1: Sean McVeagh doesn't mean they're perfect coaches. So I think
Speaker 1: the hole in Mike McCarthy's game is situational football. That's
Speaker 1: red zone football. Now, you could get away with it.
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers in your prime, probably get away with it
Speaker 1: more when you had Zeke the best on line in football,
Speaker 1: and Dak in his prime. But I don't think this
Speaker 1: is one of those situations. They've been in the red
Speaker 1: zone nineteen times this year, the Cowboys only seven touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I think that's what they're going to be. I think
Speaker 1: against good defenses to very good. I think San Francisco's
Speaker 1: very good. They're not great yet. In Steve Wilkes took
Speaker 1: over for Demiko Ryans. I don't think the Niners are
Speaker 1: a great defense, situational defense. I just think they have
Speaker 1: great talent and great units. But I think Mike McCarthy's
Speaker 1: not a bad coach, but I just don't love him
Speaker 1: in matchups like this. I think he's going to get
Speaker 1: out coached. And as you know, I tend to be
Speaker 1: more of an offensive coach sportscaster than a defensive coach.
Speaker 1: These guys are both offensive coaches this situation, this game
Speaker 1: is going to come down to a series of plays
Speaker 1: around the goal line. And that's why I like San Francisco.
Speaker 1: I think the number is right. I think three and
Speaker 1: a half is the right number. I think it's twenty
Speaker 1: four to twenty one, twenty four to twenty San Francisco.
Speaker 1: But I can't wait to watch it. Here's Chad Melman
Speaker 1: sharper Square. Listen, we've all had fender benders in our life.
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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. For more information,
Speaker 1: go for thepeople dot com slash Colin or dial pound law.
Speaker 1: That's pound five to nine from your cell phone. That's
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Speaker 1: Time for another addition, A happy edition of Sharper Square
Speaker 1: Chad Milman CEO Action Network All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: So not only did I go four and one two
Speaker 1: other games I would have bet won. So it was
Speaker 1: that rare week outside of the Patriots, Cowboys play Chad,
Speaker 1: where I was on the right side of almost every game.
Speaker 1: I've hit seven out of my last ten picks out
Speaker 1: of a dreadful let's just say this, I hit it
Speaker 1: in the weeds week one. It happens, Okay, whatever, Listen.
Speaker 2: You know what you did. You put on your big
Speaker 2: boy pants and your rally, and that's what professionals do.
Speaker 2: You don't dwell. That's you don't dwell on the weeds.
Speaker 2: You don't dwell on the bad times. You look for
Speaker 2: the opportunities. What I will tell you, I don't want
Speaker 2: to make you feel bad about this. I went five
Speaker 2: and o last week, and the two games that I
Speaker 2: didn't choose would have been winners as well. And so
Speaker 2: we need to continue to work on listening to Chad
Speaker 2: to get you over that hump. I feel like the
Speaker 2: last few weeks I was more aggressive telling you to listen.
Speaker 1: Well, you also talked me out of the Rams game,
Speaker 1: which I didn't love. But I don't hold brudges. Snow,
Speaker 1: big deal, did I?
Speaker 2: I don't even remember what. I don't remember what happened
Speaker 2: in that game.
Speaker 1: You know what, You're just like my wife, you forget.
Speaker 1: I'll remind her of stuff. She's like, I don't remember it,
Speaker 1: and I'm like, that's kind of a shaky yeah.
Speaker 2: I don't know, Colin, I don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker 2: All I know is what I know.
Speaker 1: So I don't I feel last week I had some
Speaker 1: games I really really felt strongly about this week. I
Speaker 1: have leans. I don't think the numbers are as good,
Speaker 1: but I have leans. I'll give you a lean. I
Speaker 1: like Bingals. I saw it two and a half. Let's
Speaker 1: say it's minus three on the road at Arizona, so
Speaker 1: the word is out. Arizona is pretty sneaky good. Nobody
Speaker 1: now is going to Arizona thinking they're getting a w Okay.
Speaker 1: They beat the crap out of the Cowboys, so everybody
Speaker 1: knows this is a work trip. Bingals lose ugly, embarrassing,
Speaker 1: huge urgency, and now Burrow appears to be as healthy
Speaker 1: as he's been very rarely are you going to get
Speaker 1: a Joe Burrow against a backup? And all I got
Speaker 1: to give up two and a half to three points.
Speaker 1: Arizona is sneaky good, but now everybody knows it. You
Speaker 1: don't have a locker room here, is like it's Arizona.
Speaker 1: They got to win this football game. Like Baltimore's winning,
Speaker 1: they have to win this football game. Cleveland's good. Cincinnati
Speaker 1: minus three on the road. I think it's a sharper
Speaker 1: square it.
Speaker 2: No, it's not. If it's at two and a half,
Speaker 2: I think you're going to get some support. But the
Speaker 2: reason it's gotten to two and a half, Colin is
Speaker 2: because the wise guys keep coming in on Arizona. Right.
Speaker 2: So this game opened on Sunday night at Arizona plus six.
Speaker 2: Within the first hour, from seven thirty to eight thirty
Speaker 2: on Sunday night Eastern time, it moved from six to
Speaker 2: five and a half to five. By the next day
Speaker 2: it was at four and a half, and then by
Speaker 2: the middle of the week it was at three.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: So, now all of a sudden, it's Thursday and you're
Speaker 2: starting to see two and a half. What that telling
Speaker 2: what's that telling you is that the wise guys are
Speaker 2: continuing to bet on Arizona. And there's a couple of
Speaker 2: reasons why Number one Arizona is just a better team
Speaker 2: than people expected. And I think you're seeing this with
Speaker 2: both Arizona and the Colts and with Philadelphia in that
Speaker 2: the Eagles. They're still great because they have incredible players
Speaker 2: and Nick Siriani is a really good coach, but they're
Speaker 2: struggling with new coordinators because the coordinators they have we're
Speaker 2: so good last year and now those guys are running
Speaker 2: the Colts and the Cardinals, and those teams are both overperforming.
Speaker 2: Cardinals sixteenth in DVOA, which you don't have to look
Speaker 2: it up. It's just a fancy way of taking every
Speaker 2: metric that exists in football competitively and putting it into one,
Speaker 2: and it basically says the Cardinals at sixteen the Bengals
Speaker 2: at twenty six. I feel like after four games you
Speaker 2: might say Joe Burrow is healthy, Joe Burrow can't throw
Speaker 2: the ball downfield right now, and I think you have
Speaker 2: enough of a sample size to say, Okay, this isn't
Speaker 2: just a quirk that needs a tweak. This is an
Speaker 2: issue that they need to get over, and I don't
Speaker 2: think it gets solved in a week between games. They
Speaker 2: need a buy week to sort of get everybody healthy
Speaker 2: and on the same page again, all right.
Speaker 1: I like the Steelers plus four and a half at
Speaker 1: home against the Ravens. Ravens are a little overvalued because
Speaker 1: They beat a backup quarterback, a backup quarterback who's not
Speaker 1: very good, wasn't great even in college, but had a
Speaker 1: nice preseason where nobody plays, no starters play anymore. The
Speaker 1: Steelers were humillions. Go look at Tomlin after humiliation or
Speaker 1: ugly wins. Go look at good foundational programs after ugly wins.
Speaker 1: Four and a half is outrageous. It should be a
Speaker 1: field goal at max game maybe less sharper square Steelers
Speaker 1: plus four and a half at home.
Speaker 2: Sharp as a knife. My friend and I had to
Speaker 2: put on my glasses because I have so many stats
Speaker 2: to tell you about why this is a sharp play.
Speaker 2: It is frightening just about Tomlin right fifty five thirty
Speaker 2: one and four against the spread as an underdog, the
Speaker 2: most profitable coach as an underdog the past twenty years
Speaker 2: as a home dog seventeen five and three, a dog
Speaker 2: in the AFC North twenty two, eight and two. Now,
Speaker 2: let's talk about this series. Right, the underdog in this
Speaker 2: series when the line is three and more since three
Speaker 2: and Morse is two thousand and five, when Tomlin became
Speaker 2: head coach, the underdog is twenty one, three and three.
Speaker 2: The underdog has covered eleven straight in this rivalry. The
Speaker 2: underdog is fifteen one and one against the spread in
Speaker 2: this rivalry since twenty fifteen. So I'm telling you right
Speaker 2: now the Steelers are the right side here. It's a
Speaker 2: little bit scarier. And also there's a whole boatloaded data
Speaker 2: that will tell you Lamar Jackson as an underdog is
Speaker 2: just significantly better than he as a favorite. We've seen
Speaker 2: it in the past two weeks, right like what they
Speaker 2: did against the Colts and then what they did last week.
Speaker 2: He was an underdog last week, he was a favorite
Speaker 2: the week before. They played different, they act different. He
Speaker 2: is a favorite this week on the road. The Wise
Speaker 2: guys like it. They liked it at four and a half.
Speaker 2: They liked it at four, got that down to three,
Speaker 2: then it went back up because the public came in
Speaker 2: on Baltimore. Wise guys like this play.
Speaker 1: I like Jets plus two and a half at Denver.
Speaker 1: And here's why Chicago's defense is not great. I do
Speaker 1: think Russell Wilson and Sean Payton have become They've kind
Speaker 1: of solved. They are what they are. There's not a
Speaker 1: lot of juice to it, but the numbers tell you
Speaker 1: he's back to being a B quarterback. He didn't have
Speaker 1: the Jets that made him an AA minus quarterback. But
Speaker 1: he's moving the chains. This defense is awful. I mean,
Speaker 1: Chicago marched. Chicago can't move the ball against anybody marched.
Speaker 1: So the Jets. I don't think Kansas City was an outlier.
Speaker 1: I think they're really really good defensively, and I think
Speaker 1: Robert sala is such a passionate person that he can
Speaker 1: keep that game is an easy game to sell. Sean
Speaker 1: Payton told me something once and I've never forgotten this.
Speaker 1: The best you know, the best weeks are when you
Speaker 1: it's easier to coach players when they lose, they listen.
Speaker 1: The perfect week is when they play like crap and win.
Speaker 1: So the Jets didn't, but they played really well and lost,
Speaker 1: and in that locker room it means something. I think
Speaker 1: Denver is going to struggle offensively, and I think the
Speaker 1: run game and you can run against Denver is something
Speaker 1: here like I think Kansas City's defense, this is the
Speaker 1: best Mahomes ever had. They moved the ball. They moved
Speaker 1: the ball. The difference in that game was a seven
Speaker 1: and a half minute drive that Kansas City took the
Speaker 1: ball away. It was the defense that let the Jets down.
Speaker 1: I cannot give Denver points against arguably a top five
Speaker 1: or six defense. I'm taking the I know it's crazy,
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson, I'm gonna take the Jets plus two and
Speaker 1: a half sharper square, So.
Speaker 2: It's a little bit square. Look, I don't think it's crazy.
Speaker 2: I took the Jets and Zach Wilson as ten point
Speaker 2: underdogs last week against Kansas City, right like, there are
Speaker 2: times where you're going to take a really big favorite.
Speaker 2: I think with this number, and what you've seen is
Speaker 2: the wise guys, the money is coming in on Denver
Speaker 2: this line. The public bet this line down from Denver
Speaker 2: minus two to Denver minus one and a half, and
Speaker 2: when it got to one and a half today Colin,
Speaker 2: it got bet back up immediately, and the money on
Speaker 2: Denver was so strong it went all the way from
Speaker 2: one and a half to two to two and a half.
Speaker 2: I think everybody views with you as wise guys. They're thinking,
Speaker 2: all right, Russell Wilson is the problem on this team
Speaker 2: right now. The problem on this team is the defense,
Speaker 2: and so they're making a bet that this defense can
Speaker 2: perform a little bit better against Zach Wilson, who was
Speaker 2: so overperformed last week that you're never going to get
Speaker 2: higher value on Zach Wilson and the Jets than you
Speaker 2: are right now, So they're betting against the value of
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson.
Speaker 1: An interesting game. I would have taken the Patriots, the
Speaker 1: number wouldn't have been the same. I would have taken
Speaker 1: the Patriots minus one and a half had the Saints lost,
Speaker 1: but had the Saints won, but the Saints looked awful,
Speaker 1: and it's like, Okay, the Saints have better personnel, some
Speaker 1: really interesting offensive skilled people, the better quarterback in this game,
Speaker 1: and they're getting points. Listen, when New England goes back
Speaker 1: and acquires J. C. Jackson, they couldn't get him out
Speaker 1: of town fast enough. This is a desperate team. Number
Speaker 1: one pass rushers gone, their number one corners gone. New
Speaker 1: Orleans again. Had they won, I could see if there's
Speaker 1: a division game New Orleans. I don't know if they'll
Speaker 1: play that bad the rest of the season. I think
Speaker 1: they'll be engaged. They have a coaching deficit, but almost
Speaker 1: a credit across the board on everything. I'm going to
Speaker 1: take the Saints plus one and a half sharper square
Speaker 1: totally sharp.
Speaker 2: In fact, this sharp's had been coming in in this
Speaker 2: game so much. The lines moving in the Saints direction,
Speaker 2: they're going to be favors if they aren't already in
Speaker 2: a lot of different places. And a lot of what
Speaker 2: you said is why it's a lot of guys would
Speaker 2: have bet on the Patriots if Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzales,
Speaker 2: the defensive lineman and the cornerback for the Patriots, were
Speaker 2: not out, because they feel like Bill Belichick is such
Speaker 2: a good defensive play caller and schemer that he would
Speaker 2: figure out how to do something with a hampered New
Speaker 2: Orleans Saints team in a heavyweight, outsized coaching mismatch, right,
Speaker 2: Like Dennis Allen cannot stay coach on the same field
Speaker 2: as Bill Belichick. Right, So that was why they were
Speaker 2: leaning to the Patriots. But with these guys out and
Speaker 2: the fact that Mac Jones is just terrible, like he
Speaker 2: has not looked good in any capacity in any situation,
Speaker 2: and I think the wise guys are only in the year,
Speaker 2: we're giving him a little bit of the benefit of
Speaker 2: the doubt. I was, I was, everybody was right, like
Speaker 2: he was playing in them monsoon he was playing against
Speaker 2: great defenses, but look, he just can't make the plays.
Speaker 2: And you're seeing that week after week after week now,
Speaker 2: and so I think the wise guys the bloom is
Speaker 2: off the Rows a little bit for sort of thinking
Speaker 2: that Bill O'Brien was going to be able to do
Speaker 2: something with Mac Jones. And so they've come in on
Speaker 2: the Saints pretty heavy.
Speaker 1: You know, I like underdogs. I'm going to throw a
Speaker 1: couple favorites at you. I like Philly minus four against
Speaker 1: the Rams. I don't know how they block them. I
Speaker 1: also think Matt Stafford's beat up. I think the Cooper
Speaker 1: cup news is overvalued because the truth is he's coming
Speaker 1: to practice. There's no timing at all. The Rams are
Speaker 1: right now a better story than a team. Mcveays having
Speaker 1: a wonderful year coaching. They gave the Cincinnati game away,
Speaker 1: but there were signs in Philadelphia. Greg Cosell talked about
Speaker 1: it on my show this week. You can see stuff clicking.
Speaker 1: They lost Shane Steichen. There were times when I watched
Speaker 1: that game and thought, Okay, they look like Philadelphia. This
Speaker 1: is a better team, significantly better O and D line play.
Speaker 1: It's going to be a home game for Philadelphia sixty
Speaker 1: five to thirty five. Crowd four is one of those numbers.
Speaker 1: When I see it, I'm a sucker for the four.
Speaker 1: That's when I take favorites. Philly is a significantly not
Speaker 1: only better Chad a veteran older roster. They got a
Speaker 1: lot of dudes, there's a lot of Hall of Famers.
Speaker 1: Rams defense is Aaron Donald and children. I think Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts is a tough assignment. I'm gonna take Philly minus
Speaker 1: four sharper square.
Speaker 2: It's pretty sharp and getting it's sharp at four. The
Speaker 2: wise guys were on the Rams at five and a half.
Speaker 2: They were on the Rams at five, on the Rams
Speaker 2: at four and a half. At four, you're starting to
Speaker 2: see money coming in on Philadelphia and your analysis is
Speaker 2: spot on. I had this conversation with my bff, Simon
Speaker 2: Hunter today and we're talking about this game and why
Speaker 2: people like betting the Rams at four and a half. Right,
Speaker 2: they're undefeated against the spread. Matthew Stafford has been playing
Speaker 2: incredibly well, even without Cooper Cup. You've found some talent
Speaker 2: in Nikua and kyn Williams. The defense has been good.
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald's been rejuvenated, right, and McVeigh has been coaching
Speaker 2: a great game. I've been coaching great all season except
Speaker 2: for that one game against the Bengals. My retort to
Speaker 2: that was the Eagles to me, feel like the mid
Speaker 2: two thousands Patriots, where they're so talented at every level,
Speaker 2: they can be undefeated while working stuff out, and they
Speaker 2: are so confident and not over confident in a brash away,
Speaker 2: but confident in their ability to win the games they
Speaker 2: need to win. That Covering the four, to me, feels
Speaker 2: like you're getting value on the Eagles at this number
Speaker 2: because of how good they are, and I agree with you.
Speaker 2: Like what we've started to see from them. Jalen Hurst
Speaker 2: has become a little more comfortable with the new offensive
Speaker 2: corodinary they coordinated, They've opened the offense up a little
Speaker 2: bit more. I think the one thing that wise guys
Speaker 2: are worried about right now is the fact that the
Speaker 2: Eagle secondary is pretty banged up and Matthew Stafford has
Speaker 2: been a bit of a heater. So I think that's
Speaker 2: why the number moved at four. You're going to see
Speaker 2: that point of resistance where wise guys will probably be
Speaker 2: on your side.
Speaker 1: All right, Packers, Raiders. I don't love favorites, but it's
Speaker 1: a small number. Minus one and a half. Green Bay
Speaker 1: extra time to prepare. Raiders got beat up against the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Their offensive line was literally completely overwhelmed. It's banged up.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to play a backup. If not,
Speaker 1: Garoppolo will have not practiced more than a single day.
Speaker 1: I actually think Detroit is one of the most underrated
Speaker 1: teams in the league. So when you get dominated by Detroit,
Speaker 1: my takeaway is Aaron Rodgers last year was dominated by Detroit.
Speaker 1: That is really really good. So I don't think Green
Speaker 1: Bay's as bad as we think. Extra Time very good coach.
Speaker 1: I think I take the Packers minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the Raiders off that Charger emotional. That's a
Speaker 1: big rivalry game that nobody appreciates out East. The Chargers
Speaker 1: and Raiders have been wild games in the last several years.
Speaker 1: They're wildly emotional the crowd. I'm going to take green
Speaker 1: Bay minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: Sharper square last several years, Colin, last several decades, they've
Speaker 2: been in these wild, crazy games.
Speaker 1: You and I the best rivalry in the NFL that
Speaker 1: nobody talks about.
Speaker 2: Dude, you and I are old enough to remember like
Speaker 2: dick Enberg in the late afternoon game on Sundays from Oakland,
Speaker 2: Alameda Colisseum or Jack Murphy Stadium, where these two teams
Speaker 2: were lighting it up and trying to kill each other
Speaker 2: during the eighties, Like it's a great, great rivalry. You're
Speaker 2: kind of wrong on this. The wise guys have been
Speaker 2: all over the Raiders so much so that the line
Speaker 2: is actually moving far in their direction. He'll be favorites
Speaker 2: by the time this game kicks off, if they aren't already,
Speaker 2: depending on where you're looking. Right. So last week they
Speaker 2: played the Chargers, they actually outplayed the Chargers in the game,
Speaker 2: like they gave the Chargers multiple short fields. Aidan O'Connell
Speaker 2: I thought he looked really good. Unfortunately, he played like
Speaker 2: a rookie right. He held the ball too long, didn't
Speaker 2: get rid of it downfield, had many fumbles, made that
Speaker 2: really bad interception when they were about to tie it
Speaker 2: on the Chargers three yard line, and he made a
Speaker 2: bad play. He just had. It was a miscommunication between
Speaker 2: him and his receiver. The receiver didn't go all the
Speaker 2: way out and he threw it to the corner of
Speaker 2: the goal line and the guy the Chargers intercepted it
Speaker 2: and he sat down right, and so they had every
Speaker 2: chance to win that game, even with all the mistakes.
Speaker 2: So they were in that game, and look the Packers.
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of love for Jordan Love, and
Speaker 2: appropriately so because they played well early in the year.
Speaker 2: But I think the last two weeks he's been a
Speaker 2: little bit exposed and wise guys are pulling back a
Speaker 2: little bit. Like if you're talking about quarterbacks that we
Speaker 2: are starting for the first time, people are much more
Speaker 2: excited about C. J. Stroud, They're much more excited about
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson. They are less and less excited about Jordan Love,
Speaker 2: whose completion percentage is not very good. He's made some
Speaker 2: good throws and he's shown the willingness to make throws,
Speaker 2: but he hasn't been accurate. So going on the road
Speaker 2: as a favorite is not a place where the wise
Speaker 2: guys are going to put their money.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back, So I don't love favorites. We
Speaker 1: always play a game. There's a game I ask you
Speaker 1: that you can talk me into, which you usually do.
Speaker 1: Last week it was Titans Bengals. You talked me into it.
Speaker 1: I put it on Friday morning into the Blazing five
Speaker 1: the latest I've ever put a game into the Blazing
Speaker 1: five an hour before and it was a big winner.
Speaker 1: So let's pivot to that. The game I'm going to
Speaker 1: ask you about Jacksonville Buffalo. So I don't like favorites.
Speaker 1: I'm worried that Buffalo beating a rival badly comes a
Speaker 1: little bit back down to Earth. Jaguars are very comfortable
Speaker 1: in London, They've played there. This will be the eleventh
Speaker 1: of the twelfth time, maybe the eleventh. Favorites usually win
Speaker 1: this game. In fact, I think they're twenty two to nine. Yep,
Speaker 1: but Jacksonville can keep it close. I did think against
Speaker 1: Atlanta from the very early stages of the game, they
Speaker 1: had a plan, they executed it. That was a big
Speaker 1: game for Atlanta. I think I would take the points
Speaker 1: with Jacksonville off of Buffalo dominating home win. This is
Speaker 1: the game I'm going to ask you about. Did I
Speaker 1: where would you lean? Talk me into it?
Speaker 2: I would lean Jacks because of some of the things
Speaker 2: you said. I will tell you in all the conversations
Speaker 2: that we've had this week and every analyst I've spoken to,
Speaker 2: everything I've read, nobody's really interested in this game, OK,
Speaker 2: it feels like, yeah, you should take the Jags, but
Speaker 2: Buffalo is also playing at such an elite level, and
Speaker 2: the Jags really haven't played at an elite level that
Speaker 2: game against the Falcons. If you played that game one
Speaker 2: hundred other times, you would need everything to go exactly
Speaker 2: the way it went for the Jaguars to win that game.
Speaker 2: The Falcons actually played really well, and we've talked about
Speaker 2: this on the show before we do this thing called
Speaker 2: the luck rankings. This was the number one game in
Speaker 2: terms of discrepancy between good luck and bad luck in
Speaker 2: Week four, meaning the Falcons easily could have won that
Speaker 2: game if not for a couple of really bad circumstances
Speaker 2: that always regress. So the Jags have not been a
Speaker 2: very good team this year, so a lot of wise
Speaker 2: guys are sort of taking a pass on this one.
Speaker 2: London also makes it a little bit of a different circumstance.
Speaker 2: You're kind of playing a funky number. You're not getting
Speaker 2: a seven that you might get if the Bills are
Speaker 2: playing at home. You're not getting like a plus four
Speaker 2: if you had the Jags at home, So it's kind
Speaker 2: of a no man's land. Then no one's really interesting
Speaker 2: to be honest, all right.
Speaker 1: Now we do the part of the game where it's
Speaker 1: usually an ugly game, you know, Esthetically, I like beauty.
Speaker 1: I'm surrounded by it. I just love it. So talk
Speaker 1: me in. What did I miss? I'm gonna guess this
Speaker 1: can I guess? Sure? Of course, everybody's trying to talk
Speaker 1: me into Atlanta. This week. I've lost more money. I
Speaker 1: lost as much money on the Falcons the last decade
Speaker 1: as Tom Brady lost on Bitcoin and NFT. The Falcons
Speaker 1: are my They're my whole. They're my whole. I have lost,
Speaker 1: so I just avoid the Falcons. Everybody loves them. This
Speaker 1: week's Is that your game?
Speaker 2: Yes?
Speaker 1: God, I knew it.
Speaker 2: Totally my game. The Falcons are my jam man. I
Speaker 2: don't want to bet on them either. There have been
Speaker 2: times this year where I've bet on them, and then
Speaker 2: I'd wake up Monday morning, I'm like, why don't I
Speaker 2: bet on the Falcons? What compelled me to pursue that
Speaker 2: choice in life? But Arthur Smith, I think, is a
Speaker 2: great coach, and I think what happens with the wise guys.
Speaker 2: They love his run scheme. It is so interesting. And
Speaker 2: the truth is, I do this thing every week where
Speaker 2: we do a film room right, and I'll break down
Speaker 2: a play with Simon Hunter that we think is going
Speaker 2: to influence our bet. And it just so happens that
Speaker 2: this week the play that I chose was a running play.
Speaker 2: Two different running plays that the Falcons use running to
Speaker 2: the right, because their right side of the offensive line
Speaker 2: is as dominant as any right side in the NFL.
Speaker 2: They have the fourth highest success rate running to the right.
Speaker 2: Their center, Drew Dollman is grading out as one of
Speaker 2: the best centers in the league. Their right guard, Chris
Speaker 2: Linstrom is grading out as the best guard in the league.
Speaker 2: They are Kayleb McGarry, their right tackle grading out is
Speaker 2: one of the best run blockers in the league. And
Speaker 2: you could see it, not again, not last week where
Speaker 2: they were playing from behind over almost from the beginning,
Speaker 2: but against the Packers the week before, they were just
Speaker 2: road grading people, running Bijon outside and running Tyler Algiers inside.
Speaker 2: And as much as we love what c. J. Stroud
Speaker 2: has been doing and he will, you know he's on
Speaker 2: the path to being Rookie of the Year Offensive Rookie
Speaker 2: of the Year, the Texans don't have anybody who can
Speaker 2: stop the Falcons run game. Lads are not built for that.
Speaker 2: So you give me the Falcons as very short home
Speaker 2: favorites with that running game and a Texans team that
Speaker 2: I think is overvalued right now because of what they
Speaker 2: did last week and how competitive c J. Stroud has been.
Speaker 1: Do it.
Speaker 2: I gotta pull a trigger, Canlan. I don't want to
Speaker 2: do it either. I love beauty too, but I will
Speaker 2: tell you there is beauty in this run game that
Speaker 2: is unlike a lot of things that we've seen in
Speaker 2: the NFL. Because we're a very past happy.
Speaker 1: Bunch, all right, buddy, Chad Milman. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: He's the CEO of Action Network. Good talking to him.
Speaker 2: Good to see him, my friend. Good luck to us
Speaker 2: all this weekend.
Speaker 1: The volume