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Speaker 1: Hi, everybody, and welcome in. This is, of course Friday morning,

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Speaker 1: which means Chad Millman will show up for Sharp and Square.

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Speaker 1: I've hit my seven on my last ten, been a

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Speaker 1: little hot. I don't love the numbers this week. Last

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Speaker 1: two weeks, I thought the numbers lined up. I don't

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Speaker 1: have even a strongest play this week. I do think

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Speaker 1: there's four or five games where I have a feeling

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Speaker 1: about it, a strong feeling. But in many instances you'll

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Speaker 1: find out from Chad Milman it's a strong feeling that's

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Speaker 1: not shared.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: It's it's after a really rocky start. I like where

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Speaker 1: we're at. We're gaining momentum, but Sharp and Square is

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Speaker 1: coming up in about ten minutes. The game of the

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Speaker 1: weekend is the Dallas Cowboys going on the road to

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Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine Ers. San Francisco has got

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Speaker 1: a better roster, Dallas has a better offensive line, although

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's as dominant as it's been in

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Speaker 1: recent years. I think Dallas, you know, I think Dak.

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Speaker 1: The assumption and the feeling is it's been in a

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Speaker 1: lot of big games, so he'll be better than Brock

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Speaker 1: Pretty here. But there's a lot of a lot of

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Speaker 1: areas like San Francisco. I think they have far better weapons.

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Speaker 1: Brandon Aiyuk's become a one Deebo, Samuel Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle,

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Speaker 1: and Brock pretty moves pretty well, certainly better than Garoppolo.

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Speaker 1: So I have a coach advantage, I have a weapons advantage,

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Speaker 1: And the real difference in the game to me is

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Speaker 1: San Francisco is a tremendous red zone team and Dallas isn't.

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Speaker 1: And one of the reasons Dallas isn't Tony Potter's a

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Speaker 1: good back, he's not a star. You can shade over

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Speaker 1: roll your coverage over a CD LAMB. They're not getting

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Speaker 1: Dalton Schultz production at tight end because he's now part

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Speaker 1: of the Houston Texans. So I just don't think Dallas

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Speaker 1: has that much offensive talent. They've paid for Stefan Gilmour,

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Speaker 1: Micah Parsons. I think a lot of their better players

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Speaker 1: are on the defensive side. Ceedee Lamb, I think is

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Speaker 1: really really expos explosive. But I mean, I think we've

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Speaker 1: seen this before, is that when you get into the

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Speaker 1: red zone, you know teams in the red zone that

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Speaker 1: are very good. Buffalo, why josh Allen Baltimore, Why Lamar Jackson?

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Speaker 1: You usually need in a cluttered space, a dominating back,

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Speaker 1: a dominating physical presence. Nobody can defend Lamar Jackson or

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen. Dak is not as mobile as he used

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Speaker 1: to be because of you know, lower extremity injuries. They

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Speaker 1: have now one great receiver and that's it. Not a

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Speaker 1: ton of tight end production. Backs are okay, not special,

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Speaker 1: and the O line is injury riddled, though it on

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Speaker 1: PFF is ranking better than you'd think. Look at what

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan has to work with the best running back

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Speaker 1: arguably in the league, Christian McCaffrey, who's also the best

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Speaker 1: receiving running back in the league. A top two to

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Speaker 1: three tight end in George Kittle. Brandon Ayuk is now

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Speaker 1: a one. He is a bona fide one. Deebo Samuel

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Speaker 1: is the ultimate Swiss Army knife in the NFL. And

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Speaker 1: Shanahan does a better job at disguising his run plays

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Speaker 1: than anybody I've ever seen, all the coaches. So I

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Speaker 1: think the game is going to come down to red

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Speaker 1: zone efficiency. And I just think San Francisco's got more weapons,

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Speaker 1: a better offensive coach. And I think you know the

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Speaker 1: thing about Mike McCarthy. As you know Mike McCarthy, we

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Speaker 1: talk about players that get underdrafted. Dak was underdrafted. He

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Speaker 1: was better than a fourth round pick. Brock Purty as

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Speaker 1: a seventh round pick, was underdrafted. I think Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 1: has a weakness. I don't think he's a great situational

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Speaker 1: coach and red zone offensive situational. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy's a bad coach. I just don't trust him

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Speaker 1: in key spots. By the way, when Andy Reid was

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Speaker 1: in Philadelphia, that was the knock on Andy Reid. He

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Speaker 1: wasn't great with the clock, he wasn't great in certain

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Speaker 1: situations in the red zone. Well, he had Donovan McNabb.

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Speaker 1: Now he's got Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey and but Checko,

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Speaker 1: and you know he's got better players. I mean last

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Speaker 1: year in the Super Bowl, how good was Philadelphia on

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Speaker 1: those zigzag motion plays? So they're just I mean, a

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Speaker 1: reality of the red zone is who's your quarterback, who's

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Speaker 1: your tight end, how many weapons do you have? And

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Speaker 1: are you a great situational coach? Sean Payton has usually

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Speaker 1: been very good in the red zone. Good situational coach Shanahan,

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Speaker 1: Sean McVeagh doesn't mean they're perfect coaches. So I think

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Speaker 1: the hole in Mike McCarthy's game is situational football. That's

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Speaker 1: red zone football. Now, you could get away with it.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers in your prime, probably get away with it

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Speaker 1: more when you had Zeke the best on line in football,

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Speaker 1: and Dak in his prime. But I don't think this

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Speaker 1: is one of those situations. They've been in the red

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Speaker 1: zone nineteen times this year, the Cowboys only seven touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what they're going to be. I think

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Speaker 1: against good defenses to very good. I think San Francisco's

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Speaker 1: very good. They're not great yet. In Steve Wilkes took

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Speaker 1: over for Demiko Ryans. I don't think the Niners are

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Speaker 1: a great defense, situational defense. I just think they have

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Speaker 1: great talent and great units. But I think Mike McCarthy's

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Speaker 1: not a bad coach, but I just don't love him

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Speaker 1: in matchups like this. I think he's going to get

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Speaker 1: out coached. And as you know, I tend to be

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Speaker 1: more of an offensive coach sportscaster than a defensive coach.

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Speaker 1: These guys are both offensive coaches this situation, this game

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Speaker 1: is going to come down to a series of plays

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Speaker 1: around the goal line. And that's why I like San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: I think the number is right. I think three and

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Speaker 1: a half is the right number. I think it's twenty

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Speaker 1: four to twenty one, twenty four to twenty San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: But I can't wait to watch it. Here's Chad Melman

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Speaker 1: sharper Square. Listen, we've all had fender benders in our life.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it's even more serious. People between the ages of

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Speaker 1: twenty five and thirty four, in fact, have the highest

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Speaker 1: amount of drivers involved in car crashes. Be careful, but

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Speaker 1: even if it's somebody else's mistake, you can lean on

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Speaker 1: fair compensation, fighting for people for over three five years.

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Speaker 1: Starting for an entire football franchise as a rookie quarterback

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. For more information,

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Speaker 1: go for thepeople dot com slash Colin or dial pound law.

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Speaker 1: That's pound five to nine from your cell phone. That's

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Speaker 1: for the people dot com slash Colin or pound law

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Speaker 1: five to nine from your cell This is a paid advertisement.

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Speaker 1: Time for another addition, A happy edition of Sharper Square

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman CEO Action Network All odds provided by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: So not only did I go four and one two

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Speaker 1: other games I would have bet won. So it was

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Speaker 1: that rare week outside of the Patriots, Cowboys play Chad,

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Speaker 1: where I was on the right side of almost every game.

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Speaker 1: I've hit seven out of my last ten picks out

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Speaker 1: of a dreadful let's just say this, I hit it

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Speaker 1: in the weeds week one. It happens, Okay, whatever, Listen.

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Speaker 2: You know what you did. You put on your big

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Speaker 2: boy pants and your rally, and that's what professionals do.

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Speaker 2: You don't dwell. That's you don't dwell on the weeds.

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Speaker 2: You don't dwell on the bad times. You look for

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Speaker 2: the opportunities. What I will tell you, I don't want

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Speaker 2: to make you feel bad about this. I went five

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Speaker 2: and o last week, and the two games that I

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Speaker 2: didn't choose would have been winners as well. And so

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Speaker 2: we need to continue to work on listening to Chad

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Speaker 2: to get you over that hump. I feel like the

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Speaker 2: last few weeks I was more aggressive telling you to listen.

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Speaker 1: Well, you also talked me out of the Rams game,

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Speaker 1: which I didn't love. But I don't hold brudges. Snow,

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Speaker 1: big deal, did I?

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Speaker 2: I don't even remember what. I don't remember what happened

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Speaker 2: in that game.

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Speaker 1: You know what, You're just like my wife, you forget.

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Speaker 1: I'll remind her of stuff. She's like, I don't remember it,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, that's kind of a shaky yeah.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Colin, I don't know what you're talking about.

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Speaker 2: All I know is what I know.

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Speaker 1: So I don't I feel last week I had some

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Speaker 1: games I really really felt strongly about this week. I

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Speaker 1: have leans. I don't think the numbers are as good,

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Speaker 1: but I have leans. I'll give you a lean. I

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Speaker 1: like Bingals. I saw it two and a half. Let's

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Speaker 1: say it's minus three on the road at Arizona, so

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Speaker 1: the word is out. Arizona is pretty sneaky good. Nobody

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Speaker 1: now is going to Arizona thinking they're getting a w Okay.

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Speaker 1: They beat the crap out of the Cowboys, so everybody

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Speaker 1: knows this is a work trip. Bingals lose ugly, embarrassing,

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Speaker 1: huge urgency, and now Burrow appears to be as healthy

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Speaker 1: as he's been very rarely are you going to get

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Speaker 1: a Joe Burrow against a backup? And all I got

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Speaker 1: to give up two and a half to three points.

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Speaker 1: Arizona is sneaky good, but now everybody knows it. You

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Speaker 1: don't have a locker room here, is like it's Arizona.

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Speaker 1: They got to win this football game. Like Baltimore's winning,

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Speaker 1: they have to win this football game. Cleveland's good. Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: minus three on the road. I think it's a sharper

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Speaker 1: square it.

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Speaker 2: No, it's not. If it's at two and a half,

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Speaker 2: I think you're going to get some support. But the

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Speaker 2: reason it's gotten to two and a half, Colin is

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Speaker 2: because the wise guys keep coming in on Arizona. Right.

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Speaker 2: So this game opened on Sunday night at Arizona plus six.

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Speaker 2: Within the first hour, from seven thirty to eight thirty

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Speaker 2: on Sunday night Eastern time, it moved from six to

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Speaker 2: five and a half to five. By the next day

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Speaker 2: it was at four and a half, and then by

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Speaker 2: the middle of the week it was at three.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: So, now all of a sudden, it's Thursday and you're

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Speaker 2: starting to see two and a half. What that telling

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Speaker 2: what's that telling you is that the wise guys are

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Speaker 2: continuing to bet on Arizona. And there's a couple of

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Speaker 2: reasons why Number one Arizona is just a better team

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Speaker 2: than people expected. And I think you're seeing this with

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Speaker 2: both Arizona and the Colts and with Philadelphia in that

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Speaker 2: the Eagles. They're still great because they have incredible players

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Speaker 2: and Nick Siriani is a really good coach, but they're

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Speaker 2: struggling with new coordinators because the coordinators they have we're

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Speaker 2: so good last year and now those guys are running

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Speaker 2: the Colts and the Cardinals, and those teams are both overperforming.

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Speaker 2: Cardinals sixteenth in DVOA, which you don't have to look

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Speaker 2: it up. It's just a fancy way of taking every

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Speaker 2: metric that exists in football competitively and putting it into one,

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Speaker 2: and it basically says the Cardinals at sixteen the Bengals

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Speaker 2: at twenty six. I feel like after four games you

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Speaker 2: might say Joe Burrow is healthy, Joe Burrow can't throw

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Speaker 2: the ball downfield right now, and I think you have

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Speaker 2: enough of a sample size to say, Okay, this isn't

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Speaker 2: just a quirk that needs a tweak. This is an

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Speaker 2: issue that they need to get over, and I don't

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Speaker 2: think it gets solved in a week between games. They

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Speaker 2: need a buy week to sort of get everybody healthy

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Speaker 2: and on the same page again, all right.

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Speaker 1: I like the Steelers plus four and a half at

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Speaker 1: home against the Ravens. Ravens are a little overvalued because

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Speaker 1: They beat a backup quarterback, a backup quarterback who's not

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Speaker 1: very good, wasn't great even in college, but had a

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Speaker 1: nice preseason where nobody plays, no starters play anymore. The

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Speaker 1: Steelers were humillions. Go look at Tomlin after humiliation or

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Speaker 1: ugly wins. Go look at good foundational programs after ugly wins.

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Speaker 1: Four and a half is outrageous. It should be a

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Speaker 1: field goal at max game maybe less sharper square Steelers

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Speaker 1: plus four and a half at home.

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Speaker 2: Sharp as a knife. My friend and I had to

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Speaker 2: put on my glasses because I have so many stats

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Speaker 2: to tell you about why this is a sharp play.

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Speaker 2: It is frightening just about Tomlin right fifty five thirty

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Speaker 2: one and four against the spread as an underdog, the

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Speaker 2: most profitable coach as an underdog the past twenty years

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Speaker 2: as a home dog seventeen five and three, a dog

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Speaker 2: in the AFC North twenty two, eight and two. Now,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about this series. Right, the underdog in this

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Speaker 2: series when the line is three and more since three

258
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Speaker 2: and Morse is two thousand and five, when Tomlin became

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Speaker 2: head coach, the underdog is twenty one, three and three.

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Speaker 2: The underdog has covered eleven straight in this rivalry. The

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Speaker 2: underdog is fifteen one and one against the spread in

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Speaker 2: this rivalry since twenty fifteen. So I'm telling you right

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Speaker 2: now the Steelers are the right side here. It's a

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Speaker 2: little bit scarier. And also there's a whole boatloaded data

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Speaker 2: that will tell you Lamar Jackson as an underdog is

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Speaker 2: just significantly better than he as a favorite. We've seen

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Speaker 2: it in the past two weeks, right like what they

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Speaker 2: did against the Colts and then what they did last week.

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Speaker 2: He was an underdog last week, he was a favorite

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Speaker 2: the week before. They played different, they act different. He

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Speaker 2: is a favorite this week on the road. The Wise

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Speaker 2: guys like it. They liked it at four and a half.

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Speaker 2: They liked it at four, got that down to three,

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Speaker 2: then it went back up because the public came in

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Speaker 2: on Baltimore. Wise guys like this play.

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Speaker 1: I like Jets plus two and a half at Denver.

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Speaker 1: And here's why Chicago's defense is not great. I do

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Speaker 1: think Russell Wilson and Sean Payton have become They've kind

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Speaker 1: of solved. They are what they are. There's not a

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Speaker 1: lot of juice to it, but the numbers tell you

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Speaker 1: he's back to being a B quarterback. He didn't have

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Speaker 1: the Jets that made him an AA minus quarterback. But

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Speaker 1: he's moving the chains. This defense is awful. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Chicago marched. Chicago can't move the ball against anybody marched.

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Speaker 1: So the Jets. I don't think Kansas City was an outlier.

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Speaker 1: I think they're really really good defensively, and I think

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Speaker 1: Robert sala is such a passionate person that he can

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Speaker 1: keep that game is an easy game to sell. Sean

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Speaker 1: Payton told me something once and I've never forgotten this.

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Speaker 1: The best you know, the best weeks are when you

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Speaker 1: it's easier to coach players when they lose, they listen.

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Speaker 1: The perfect week is when they play like crap and win.

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Speaker 1: So the Jets didn't, but they played really well and lost,

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Speaker 1: and in that locker room it means something. I think

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Speaker 1: Denver is going to struggle offensively, and I think the

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Speaker 1: run game and you can run against Denver is something

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Speaker 1: here like I think Kansas City's defense, this is the

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Speaker 1: best Mahomes ever had. They moved the ball. They moved

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Speaker 1: the ball. The difference in that game was a seven

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Speaker 1: and a half minute drive that Kansas City took the

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Speaker 1: ball away. It was the defense that let the Jets down.

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Speaker 1: I cannot give Denver points against arguably a top five

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Speaker 1: or six defense. I'm taking the I know it's crazy,

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Speaker 1: Zack Wilson, I'm gonna take the Jets plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half sharper square, So.

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Speaker 2: It's a little bit square. Look, I don't think it's crazy.

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Speaker 2: I took the Jets and Zach Wilson as ten point

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Speaker 2: underdogs last week against Kansas City, right like, there are

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Speaker 2: times where you're going to take a really big favorite.

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Speaker 2: I think with this number, and what you've seen is

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Speaker 2: the wise guys, the money is coming in on Denver

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Speaker 2: this line. The public bet this line down from Denver

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Speaker 2: minus two to Denver minus one and a half, and

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Speaker 2: when it got to one and a half today Colin,

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Speaker 2: it got bet back up immediately, and the money on

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Speaker 2: Denver was so strong it went all the way from

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Speaker 2: one and a half to two to two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think everybody views with you as wise guys. They're thinking,

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Speaker 2: all right, Russell Wilson is the problem on this team

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Speaker 2: right now. The problem on this team is the defense,

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Speaker 2: and so they're making a bet that this defense can

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Speaker 2: perform a little bit better against Zach Wilson, who was

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Speaker 2: so overperformed last week that you're never going to get

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Speaker 2: higher value on Zach Wilson and the Jets than you

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Speaker 2: are right now, So they're betting against the value of

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Speaker 2: Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 1: An interesting game. I would have taken the Patriots, the

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Speaker 1: number wouldn't have been the same. I would have taken

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Speaker 1: the Patriots minus one and a half had the Saints lost,

330
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Speaker 1: but had the Saints won, but the Saints looked awful,

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Speaker 1: and it's like, Okay, the Saints have better personnel, some

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Speaker 1: really interesting offensive skilled people, the better quarterback in this game,

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Speaker 1: and they're getting points. Listen, when New England goes back

334
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Speaker 1: and acquires J. C. Jackson, they couldn't get him out

335
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Speaker 1: of town fast enough. This is a desperate team. Number

336
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Speaker 1: one pass rushers gone, their number one corners gone. New

337
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Speaker 1: Orleans again. Had they won, I could see if there's

338
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Speaker 1: a division game New Orleans. I don't know if they'll

339
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 1: play that bad the rest of the season. I think

340
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Speaker 1: they'll be engaged. They have a coaching deficit, but almost

341
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Speaker 1: a credit across the board on everything. I'm going to

342
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 1: take the Saints plus one and a half sharper square

343
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Speaker 1: totally sharp.

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Speaker 2: In fact, this sharp's had been coming in in this

345
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Speaker 2: game so much. The lines moving in the Saints direction,

346
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Speaker 2: they're going to be favors if they aren't already in

347
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Speaker 2: a lot of different places. And a lot of what

348
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Speaker 2: you said is why it's a lot of guys would

349
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Speaker 2: have bet on the Patriots if Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzales,

350
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Speaker 2: the defensive lineman and the cornerback for the Patriots, were

351
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Speaker 2: not out, because they feel like Bill Belichick is such

352
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Speaker 2: a good defensive play caller and schemer that he would

353
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Speaker 2: figure out how to do something with a hampered New

354
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:58,120
Speaker 2: Orleans Saints team in a heavyweight, outsized coaching mismatch, right,

355
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Speaker 2: Like Dennis Allen cannot stay coach on the same field

356
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Speaker 2: as Bill Belichick. Right, So that was why they were

357
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Speaker 2: leaning to the Patriots. But with these guys out and

358
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Speaker 2: the fact that Mac Jones is just terrible, like he

359
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 2: has not looked good in any capacity in any situation,

360
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 2: and I think the wise guys are only in the year,

361
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 2: we're giving him a little bit of the benefit of

362
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Speaker 2: the doubt. I was, I was, everybody was right, like

363
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 2: he was playing in them monsoon he was playing against

364
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,439
Speaker 2: great defenses, but look, he just can't make the plays.

365
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 2: And you're seeing that week after week after week now,

366
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Speaker 2: and so I think the wise guys the bloom is

367
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 2: off the Rows a little bit for sort of thinking

368
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Speaker 2: that Bill O'Brien was going to be able to do

369
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 2: something with Mac Jones. And so they've come in on

370
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 2: the Saints pretty heavy.

371
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Speaker 1: You know, I like underdogs. I'm going to throw a

372
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 1: couple favorites at you. I like Philly minus four against

373
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Speaker 1: the Rams. I don't know how they block them. I

374
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Speaker 1: also think Matt Stafford's beat up. I think the Cooper

375
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 1: cup news is overvalued because the truth is he's coming

376
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:03,479
Speaker 1: to practice. There's no timing at all. The Rams are

377
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: right now a better story than a team. Mcveays having

378
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 1: a wonderful year coaching. They gave the Cincinnati game away,

379
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 1: but there were signs in Philadelphia. Greg Cosell talked about

380
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 1: it on my show this week. You can see stuff clicking.

381
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 1: They lost Shane Steichen. There were times when I watched

382
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Speaker 1: that game and thought, Okay, they look like Philadelphia. This

383
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 1: is a better team, significantly better O and D line play.

384
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Speaker 1: It's going to be a home game for Philadelphia sixty

385
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Speaker 1: five to thirty five. Crowd four is one of those numbers.

386
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Speaker 1: When I see it, I'm a sucker for the four.

387
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Speaker 1: That's when I take favorites. Philly is a significantly not

388
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 1: only better Chad a veteran older roster. They got a

389
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 1: lot of dudes, there's a lot of Hall of Famers.

390
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 1: Rams defense is Aaron Donald and children. I think Jalen

391
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: Hurts is a tough assignment. I'm gonna take Philly minus

392
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Speaker 1: four sharper square.

393
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Speaker 2: It's pretty sharp and getting it's sharp at four. The

394
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 2: wise guys were on the Rams at five and a half.

395
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 2: They were on the Rams at five, on the Rams

396
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 2: at four and a half. At four, you're starting to

397
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,199
Speaker 2: see money coming in on Philadelphia and your analysis is

398
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 2: spot on. I had this conversation with my bff, Simon

399
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 2: Hunter today and we're talking about this game and why

400
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 2: people like betting the Rams at four and a half. Right,

401
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 2: they're undefeated against the spread. Matthew Stafford has been playing

402
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 2: incredibly well, even without Cooper Cup. You've found some talent

403
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 2: in Nikua and kyn Williams. The defense has been good.

404
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald's been rejuvenated, right, and McVeigh has been coaching

405
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 2: a great game. I've been coaching great all season except

406
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: for that one game against the Bengals. My retort to

407
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: that was the Eagles to me, feel like the mid

408
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: two thousands Patriots, where they're so talented at every level,

409
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 2: they can be undefeated while working stuff out, and they

410
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: are so confident and not over confident in a brash away,

411
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 2: but confident in their ability to win the games they

412
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 2: need to win. That Covering the four, to me, feels

413
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 2: like you're getting value on the Eagles at this number

414
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: because of how good they are, and I agree with you.

415
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: Like what we've started to see from them. Jalen Hurst

416
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 2: has become a little more comfortable with the new offensive

417
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: corodinary they coordinated, They've opened the offense up a little

418
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 2: bit more. I think the one thing that wise guys

419
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: are worried about right now is the fact that the

420
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 2: Eagle secondary is pretty banged up and Matthew Stafford has

421
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 2: been a bit of a heater. So I think that's

422
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 2: why the number moved at four. You're going to see

423
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: that point of resistance where wise guys will probably be

424
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: on your side.

425
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Speaker 1: All right, Packers, Raiders. I don't love favorites, but it's

426
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Speaker 1: a small number. Minus one and a half. Green Bay

427
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: extra time to prepare. Raiders got beat up against the Chargers.

428
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: Their offensive line was literally completely overwhelmed. It's banged up.

429
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 1: I think they're going to play a backup. If not,

430
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: Garoppolo will have not practiced more than a single day.

431
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: I actually think Detroit is one of the most underrated

432
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: teams in the league. So when you get dominated by Detroit,

433
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 1: my takeaway is Aaron Rodgers last year was dominated by Detroit.

434
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 1: That is really really good. So I don't think Green

435
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: Bay's as bad as we think. Extra Time very good coach.

436
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 1: I think I take the Packers minus one and a half.

437
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: I think the Raiders off that Charger emotional. That's a

438
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: big rivalry game that nobody appreciates out East. The Chargers

439
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: and Raiders have been wild games in the last several years.

440
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: They're wildly emotional the crowd. I'm going to take green

441
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: Bay minus one and a half.

442
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 2: Sharper square last several years, Colin, last several decades, they've

443
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: been in these wild, crazy games.

444
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 1: You and I the best rivalry in the NFL that

445
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 1: nobody talks about.

446
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 2: Dude, you and I are old enough to remember like

447
00:23:55,240 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 2: dick Enberg in the late afternoon game on Sundays from Oakland,

448
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: Alameda Colisseum or Jack Murphy Stadium, where these two teams

449
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 2: were lighting it up and trying to kill each other

450
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 2: during the eighties, Like it's a great, great rivalry. You're

451
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,239
Speaker 2: kind of wrong on this. The wise guys have been

452
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 2: all over the Raiders so much so that the line

453
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: is actually moving far in their direction. He'll be favorites

454
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: by the time this game kicks off, if they aren't already,

455
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 2: depending on where you're looking. Right. So last week they

456
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: played the Chargers, they actually outplayed the Chargers in the game,

457
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: like they gave the Chargers multiple short fields. Aidan O'Connell

458
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: I thought he looked really good. Unfortunately, he played like

459
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 2: a rookie right. He held the ball too long, didn't

460
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,239
Speaker 2: get rid of it downfield, had many fumbles, made that

461
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: really bad interception when they were about to tie it

462
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 2: on the Chargers three yard line, and he made a

463
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 2: bad play. He just had. It was a miscommunication between

464
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 2: him and his receiver. The receiver didn't go all the

465
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 2: way out and he threw it to the corner of

466
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 2: the goal line and the guy the Chargers intercepted it

467
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 2: and he sat down right, and so they had every

468
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 2: chance to win that game, even with all the mistakes.

469
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 2: So they were in that game, and look the Packers.

470
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of love for Jordan Love, and

471
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 2: appropriately so because they played well early in the year.

472
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: But I think the last two weeks he's been a

473
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: little bit exposed and wise guys are pulling back a

474
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: little bit. Like if you're talking about quarterbacks that we

475
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: are starting for the first time, people are much more

476
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 2: excited about C. J. Stroud, They're much more excited about

477
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,719
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson. They are less and less excited about Jordan Love,

478
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: whose completion percentage is not very good. He's made some

479
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,719
Speaker 2: good throws and he's shown the willingness to make throws,

480
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: but he hasn't been accurate. So going on the road

481
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 2: as a favorite is not a place where the wise

482
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 2: guys are going to put their money.

483
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back, So I don't love favorites. We

484
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 1: always play a game. There's a game I ask you

485
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 1: that you can talk me into, which you usually do.

486
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 1: Last week it was Titans Bengals. You talked me into it.

487
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 1: I put it on Friday morning into the Blazing five

488
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: the latest I've ever put a game into the Blazing

489
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: five an hour before and it was a big winner.

490
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: So let's pivot to that. The game I'm going to

491
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: ask you about Jacksonville Buffalo. So I don't like favorites.

492
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 1: I'm worried that Buffalo beating a rival badly comes a

493
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: little bit back down to Earth. Jaguars are very comfortable

494
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: in London, They've played there. This will be the eleventh

495
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: of the twelfth time, maybe the eleventh. Favorites usually win

496
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: this game. In fact, I think they're twenty two to nine. Yep,

497
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: but Jacksonville can keep it close. I did think against

498
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: Atlanta from the very early stages of the game, they

499
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: had a plan, they executed it. That was a big

500
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: game for Atlanta. I think I would take the points

501
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: with Jacksonville off of Buffalo dominating home win. This is

502
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 1: the game I'm going to ask you about. Did I

503
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: where would you lean? Talk me into it?

504
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: I would lean Jacks because of some of the things

505
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: you said. I will tell you in all the conversations

506
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: that we've had this week and every analyst I've spoken to,

507
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 2: everything I've read, nobody's really interested in this game, OK,

508
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: it feels like, yeah, you should take the Jags, but

509
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 2: Buffalo is also playing at such an elite level, and

510
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: the Jags really haven't played at an elite level that

511
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 2: game against the Falcons. If you played that game one

512
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 2: hundred other times, you would need everything to go exactly

513
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 2: the way it went for the Jaguars to win that game.

514
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 2: The Falcons actually played really well, and we've talked about

515
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 2: this on the show before we do this thing called

516
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 2: the luck rankings. This was the number one game in

517
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: terms of discrepancy between good luck and bad luck in

518
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 2: Week four, meaning the Falcons easily could have won that

519
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: game if not for a couple of really bad circumstances

520
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: that always regress. So the Jags have not been a

521
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: very good team this year, so a lot of wise

522
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 2: guys are sort of taking a pass on this one.

523
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 2: London also makes it a little bit of a different circumstance.

524
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: You're kind of playing a funky number. You're not getting

525
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 2: a seven that you might get if the Bills are

526
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: playing at home. You're not getting like a plus four

527
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 2: if you had the Jags at home, So it's kind

528
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 2: of a no man's land. Then no one's really interesting

529
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 2: to be honest, all right.

530
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: Now we do the part of the game where it's

531
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: usually an ugly game, you know, Esthetically, I like beauty.

532
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: I'm surrounded by it. I just love it. So talk

533
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: me in. What did I miss? I'm gonna guess this

534
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: can I guess? Sure? Of course, everybody's trying to talk

535
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: me into Atlanta. This week. I've lost more money. I

536
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: lost as much money on the Falcons the last decade

537
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: as Tom Brady lost on Bitcoin and NFT. The Falcons

538
00:28:55,880 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: are my They're my whole. They're my whole. I have lost,

539
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: so I just avoid the Falcons. Everybody loves them. This

540
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: week's Is that your game?

541
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 2: Yes?

542
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: God, I knew it.

543
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 2: Totally my game. The Falcons are my jam man. I

544
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 2: don't want to bet on them either. There have been

545
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: times this year where I've bet on them, and then

546
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 2: I'd wake up Monday morning, I'm like, why don't I

547
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: bet on the Falcons? What compelled me to pursue that

548
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: choice in life? But Arthur Smith, I think, is a

549
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 2: great coach, and I think what happens with the wise guys.

550
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 2: They love his run scheme. It is so interesting. And

551
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: the truth is, I do this thing every week where

552
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: we do a film room right, and I'll break down

553
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 2: a play with Simon Hunter that we think is going

554
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 2: to influence our bet. And it just so happens that

555
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: this week the play that I chose was a running play.

556
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 2: Two different running plays that the Falcons use running to

557
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: the right, because their right side of the offensive line

558
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 2: is as dominant as any right side in the NFL.

559
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: They have the fourth highest success rate running to the right.

560
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: Their center, Drew Dollman is grading out as one of

561
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 2: the best centers in the league. Their right guard, Chris

562
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 2: Linstrom is grading out as the best guard in the league.

563
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: They are Kayleb McGarry, their right tackle grading out is

564
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: one of the best run blockers in the league. And

565
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: you could see it, not again, not last week where

566
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 2: they were playing from behind over almost from the beginning,

567
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: but against the Packers the week before, they were just

568
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 2: road grading people, running Bijon outside and running Tyler Algiers inside.

569
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 2: And as much as we love what c. J. Stroud

570
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 2: has been doing and he will, you know he's on

571
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 2: the path to being Rookie of the Year Offensive Rookie

572
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,959
Speaker 2: of the Year, the Texans don't have anybody who can

573
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 2: stop the Falcons run game. Lads are not built for that.

574
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: So you give me the Falcons as very short home

575
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 2: favorites with that running game and a Texans team that

576
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: I think is overvalued right now because of what they

577
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 2: did last week and how competitive c J. Stroud has been.

578
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: Do it.

579
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: I gotta pull a trigger, Canlan. I don't want to

580
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: do it either. I love beauty too, but I will

581
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: tell you there is beauty in this run game that

582
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 2: is unlike a lot of things that we've seen in

583
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: the NFL. Because we're a very past happy.

584
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: Bunch, all right, buddy, Chad Milman. All odds provided by DraftKings.

585
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: He's the CEO of Action Network. Good talking to him.

586
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: Good to see him, my friend. Good luck to us

587
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 2: all this weekend.

588
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: The volume