Speaker 1: The Coin Bureau podcast is a production of I heart radio,
Speaker 1: and I think a big theme of the coming few
Speaker 1: years really is how do these how do these crypto projects, decentralize?
Speaker 1: How do you put decentralization into action, because I think
Speaker 1: that's one of the you know, that's one of the
Speaker 1: only ways that these that these projects, can keep themselves
Speaker 1: safe from from regulations. Welcome everyone to the Coin Bureau podcast.
Speaker 1: My name is guy and this gentleman's name is Mad
Speaker 1: Mike Mooch the third. Welcome back, Mad Mike moned the third.
Speaker 1: It's good to see you. Sir. I am still here
Speaker 1: in Sunny Dubai, where it is thirty eight degrees Celsius,
Speaker 1: a very mild thirty eight degree Celsius by by Dubai standards,
Speaker 1: and you are back in your man Cave in London.
Speaker 1: How is how is London? What's the mood like? What's
Speaker 1: what's the old weather like? It's it's the same, you know.
Speaker 1: We've got some sunshine but freezing cold temperatures. The Queen
Speaker 1: is still dead. No undertaker, sort of last minute sort
Speaker 1: of resurrection. We're all getting on with life and it's
Speaker 1: all going okay. I mean things are pretty much the same,
Speaker 1: unlike maybe the world of Crypto, with some big changes
Speaker 1: have happened. But an absolutely beautiful segue. I really admire that.
Speaker 1: That's wonderful. Yeah, a lot has yeah, things are very
Speaker 1: different from the last time we spoke. Obviously, last week
Speaker 1: we did our episode, are kind of on the hoof
Speaker 1: episode where we looked ahead to the merge, to ethereums merge,
Speaker 1: and this week we're going to look back on ethereums
Speaker 1: merge and and see kind of what the landscape is.
Speaker 1: What's changed, what's going on, what do we need to
Speaker 1: be aware of and, I think crucially as well, what
Speaker 1: what might be around the corner? Yeah, well, that's that's
Speaker 1: what everyone wants to know and we can pontificate on
Speaker 1: that and I'm sure people will take advice, but not
Speaker 1: financial advice exactly, exactly, because of course it isn't financial advice, Um,
Speaker 1: which is, yeah, which is something everyone should remember. Um. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: I've I've kind of I made some notes about what
Speaker 1: I was going to talk about and I've kind of
Speaker 1: divided it up. Part one I'm just going to call
Speaker 1: the bad news, because I'm afraid there is a little
Speaker 1: bit of bad news. Um, and but don't worry, anyone
Speaker 1: listening the good news. Part two is the good news
Speaker 1: and then part three is sort of any other business.
Speaker 1: So well, let's just start. Let's let's get on with
Speaker 1: the bad news, shall we? Well, in fact, we can
Speaker 1: start with some good news, which most people will probably
Speaker 1: be aware of if they've been paying any sort of
Speaker 1: attention to crypto over the last well, since since last Thursday. Basically,
Speaker 1: the merge all went to plan and nothing, nothing went wrong.
Speaker 1: And so far nothing, nothing really has gone wrong with
Speaker 1: ethereum itself, which is which is great. Um, no portals
Speaker 1: to the other world have been opened or anything like that,
Speaker 1: certainly certainly not that fatalk or any of the other
Speaker 1: devs are admitting to. I don't think they opened up
Speaker 1: a gate of Hell beneath beneath the ethereum foundation or
Speaker 1: anything like that. But but I mean, you know, they may.
Speaker 1: They may just be keeping that one under wraps. So
Speaker 1: that's not the bad news. So yeah, and it was.
Speaker 1: I don't I'm I I don't know if you were
Speaker 1: sort of paying attention at the time, Mikey. Obviously I
Speaker 1: was kind of glued to my laptop. I was watching
Speaker 1: it via a live stream from the ethereum foundation, and
Speaker 1: I mean talk about Geek Central. It was. It was
Speaker 1: absolutely wonderful. It was a great thing to watch. It
Speaker 1: was it was kind of weird because, you know, everyone's
Speaker 1: there's there's quite a lot. There were quite a lot
Speaker 1: of devs on the on the Stream. Vitilt himself cropped
Speaker 1: up a couple of times, which was really cool. And Yeah,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden the block was the block was
Speaker 1: pushed and, you know, the block was created, the code
Speaker 1: was pushed and we would switch to proof of stake.
Speaker 1: It was and they had some little pandas appear, because
Speaker 1: the Etherean community are very fond of pandas. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: it all went it all went smoothly and you could
Speaker 1: really sense watching the stream. You know, you could really
Speaker 1: sense the relief kind of flooding through all these people
Speaker 1: because they, yeah, they looked very tired. They'd obviously been,
Speaker 1: you know, working really, really hard for days, weeks, months,
Speaker 1: years on end really to to kind of get this,
Speaker 1: get this thing over the line. And Yeah, it was
Speaker 1: it was impossible not to feel sort of really really
Speaker 1: happy for them because, yeah, they deserved it. It was
Speaker 1: it was a really monumental effort and yeah, it's. And
Speaker 1: there was this kind of brief sort of surge of
Speaker 1: optimism in the crypto markets, which we haven't seen really since,
Speaker 1: since the bullmarket ended, and I was kind of keeping
Speaker 1: half an eye on prices, you know, I was trying
Speaker 1: to get work done, but I slipped into that bad
Speaker 1: habit that so many of us crypto people have, sort
Speaker 1: of refreshing the price charts every two minutes or so. Um, well,
Speaker 1: we've all been there. But it was it was exciting
Speaker 1: to see. I mean I I didn't expect it to last,
Speaker 1: but it was. It was kind of good to see
Speaker 1: this little sort of relief rally and obviously the price
Speaker 1: started shooting up as well as, you know, kind of
Speaker 1: crypt the market in general. It was it made a nice,
Speaker 1: nice change from sort of recent weeks. Um, however, that
Speaker 1: that relief rally didn't last all that lot. It was
Speaker 1: it was, you know, two or three hours or so,
Speaker 1: maybe not even that. And Yeah, things started, things started
Speaker 1: tumbling back downward and it was obviously, you know, what
Speaker 1: what those in in investment circles call a kind of
Speaker 1: sell the news event. You know, you buy the rumor
Speaker 1: and then you sell the news, and I think the
Speaker 1: ethereum merge may go down as one of the classics
Speaker 1: sell the news events in Crypto. Um, because, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it's kind of looking at it's, you know, looking at
Speaker 1: it a few days onwards, it seems now like the
Speaker 1: merge was kind of a bit of a short break
Speaker 1: from reality and then, you know, after a couple of hours,
Speaker 1: reality sort of sidled back into the room and went right.
Speaker 1: Probably just raising a point before, seconds before you do,
Speaker 1: but didn't as soon as the merge happened. Proof of
Speaker 1: steak get basically hinted that it was going to be
Speaker 1: anything that does that is going to be a security. Now. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, yeah,
Speaker 1: I was. Yeah, you're on the ball today, sir. Yeah,
Speaker 1: because at the same time that the merge was happening,
Speaker 1: the Chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, who's sort of,
Speaker 1: I guess, Krypto's biggest bogey man at the moment, he
Speaker 1: was actually testifying in Washington and here he said, you know,
Speaker 1: he he pretty much said that he and, Um, you know,
Speaker 1: the SEC, by extension, believe that the proof of state
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies could be designated as securities. And the timing on
Speaker 1: that is that malicious. It's hard to imagine otherwise, I think.
Speaker 1: I mean it may just be it may just be
Speaker 1: a coincidence. There seems to have been quite quite a
Speaker 1: few coincidences kind of knocking around the crypto space at
Speaker 1: the moment. But this, this seemed to be this seemed
Speaker 1: to be a curious coincidence perhaps, but yeah, it could
Speaker 1: it could well have been deliberate, um, but yeah, so
Speaker 1: that was that kind of that kind of hit the
Speaker 1: markets a little bit. I'll talk about that in a
Speaker 1: moment because actually the what was more consequential had actually
Speaker 1: taken place the day before, because on the Wednesday, um,
Speaker 1: so less than kind of twenty four hours before before
Speaker 1: the merge was due, the latest inflation figures, the consumer
Speaker 1: price index, the CPI, came out in the US, and
Speaker 1: it wasn't all that good. It was it was it
Speaker 1: showed eight point three percent inflation over in the states. Now,
Speaker 1: this is actually this was actually down a couple of
Speaker 1: points from the previous months. So these were the inflation
Speaker 1: figures for August. So they were slightly lower than the
Speaker 1: inflation figures have been for July, which does kind of
Speaker 1: suggest that inflation, you know, maybe starting to go down
Speaker 1: a little bit. But you know, everyone was kind of
Speaker 1: everyone was kind of hoping that they'd be a lot
Speaker 1: lower than that. So that, if you like, you know,
Speaker 1: before the merge it even happened, that the sort of
Speaker 1: wider world that you know, the global macro landscape, had
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, poked its head round the door
Speaker 1: and sort of said, you know, I'm still here, things
Speaker 1: are still really worry we're all still fucked M it. Exactly, yeah, exactly. Um. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: so that kind of that really dampened enthusiasm in the
Speaker 1: markets that that kind of took any winds that there
Speaker 1: was out of the sales. And I should also point
Speaker 1: out that that that the core CPI, which is the
Speaker 1: same measure but excludes energy and food, that actually went
Speaker 1: up by over half a percentum. Yeah, and that is
Speaker 1: that is not good news at all. So basically, inflation
Speaker 1: in the US, in in case anyone had missed it,
Speaker 1: is still really, really high. And this means that the
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, which meets, we're recording this on Tuesday, so
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve will meet tomorrow, on Wednesday one. This
Speaker 1: is going to be their first meeting since there, since
Speaker 1: they all went off on their on their summer break,
Speaker 1: and they are going to hike interest rates again. And Yeah, previously,
Speaker 1: you know, a few weeks ago, the EXPECTA Asian was
Speaker 1: that they probably hike it by hike them by half
Speaker 1: a percent, fifty basis points. Actually, it now looks much
Speaker 1: more likely that they're going to hike it by three
Speaker 1: quarters of a percent, seventy five basis points. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, it's interest rates are going to have another big,
Speaker 1: big pump. And actually there is, you know, a more
Speaker 1: than there's about a kind of eighteen chance at the
Speaker 1: moment as we record this, that they could actually hike
Speaker 1: it a full one percent. That doesn't seem to be
Speaker 1: off the table now. If they hiked rates a full
Speaker 1: one percent, yeah, that would not be markets, especially Crypto,
Speaker 1: but you know, kind of all markets would really, you know,
Speaker 1: would really soil, soil the sheets, because a one percent
Speaker 1: rate hike would be the largest in forty years, which
Speaker 1: is a pretty, yeah, pretty sobering thought really. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: it really Um basically the kind of the the outlook
Speaker 1: at the moment, what everyone's kind of looking towards is
Speaker 1: that we're that we are going to see a big
Speaker 1: old drop across all markets, and some people are actually
Speaker 1: predicting that it could be even worse than the drop
Speaker 1: that we saw in two thousand and eight, after the
Speaker 1: after the finite, in the wake of the financial crisis. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's not too cheerful from that perspective. I'm afraid
Speaker 1: a lot of people are, you know, are really kind
Speaker 1: of bracing themselves for for more pain. Well, I'm enjoying
Speaker 1: these sessions each week where where we we, we, we
Speaker 1: call each other, you tell us how life is going
Speaker 1: to be even worse. Uh, and then and then we we,
Speaker 1: we sign off on a sort of cheery note and
Speaker 1: then it gets worse next week again. So great for
Speaker 1: next week when when the sun is extinguished. So yeah,
Speaker 1: so the giant meteorite heading towards that. That has kind
Speaker 1: of really that has really got that sped up worried.
Speaker 1: Now due Wednesday. Yeah, we've now got a definite date
Speaker 1: for that. That's impact. I mean. Is this? Is this?
Speaker 1: Is this not just reminiscent of the of the eighties? Wasn't?
Speaker 1: Didn't we have se interest rates or something like that
Speaker 1: in the eighties or something like that? Yeah, back in
Speaker 1: the seventies. Yeah, yeah, so that was that's kind of
Speaker 1: fame and that that era is getting talked about a
Speaker 1: lot at the moment, obviously because, you know, we're seeing
Speaker 1: we're starting to see comparable levels of inflation. And actually,
Speaker 1: back in the back in the seventies, the the chairman
Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve was a chap called Paul Volca,
Speaker 1: and his name is cropping up a lot in, you know,
Speaker 1: in the kind of financial, financial media at the moment
Speaker 1: because he hyped rates to around tw to to get
Speaker 1: that inflation under control. Um, now, for context, we're we're
Speaker 1: not we're we're sort of, you know, pushing towards the
Speaker 1: three percent level. We're we're kind of hovering around there
Speaker 1: at the moment. So there's there's lots of upside for
Speaker 1: for interest rates. Unfortunately, Um, it remains to be seen whether,
Speaker 1: you know, whether we'll whether we'll get anywhere near that figure.
Speaker 1: I think things will have to get really pretty bad
Speaker 1: for rates to go that high. But I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: the Fed and other central banks have, you know, our
Speaker 1: hiking rates a lot now. I think I think there's
Speaker 1: due to be another one in the UK, maybe even tomorrow,
Speaker 1: at the same time that the Fed is is hiking rates.
Speaker 1: The the European Central Bank the ECB there hiking rates now.
Speaker 1: You know, the higher interest rates are just going to
Speaker 1: be a thing for you know, for the next few,
Speaker 1: possibly years. So that's that's something too. That's something to
Speaker 1: look forward to. Um. Yeah, so kind of already ahead
Speaker 1: of the merge, there were there were concerns, there were
Speaker 1: you know, there were things weighing on the market. So
Speaker 1: the merge came, it was a success. The market's kind
Speaker 1: of pumped a little bit in, you know, as if
Speaker 1: to kind of acknowledge that, and then they started crashing again,
Speaker 1: and I mean they are still crashing. Let's just have
Speaker 1: a quick look at the child. Like yesterday seems to
Speaker 1: be a bit of a dip and it's gone up
Speaker 1: a little bit today. Um, that's my scientific look at it.
Speaker 1: That's your technical analysis done. Yeah, it is up a
Speaker 1: little bit today. Yeah, that's true. Bitcoin, Bitcoin and Etherorum
Speaker 1: are both up over three percent today, but I mean
Speaker 1: they're both still, oh yeah, yeah, massively down, especially especially etherorum.
Speaker 1: ethereums down over on the week. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, Bitcoin,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is below twenty k which is you know that
Speaker 1: that's a that's a twenty K is is a fairly
Speaker 1: sort of strong psychology call support level for for Bitcoin
Speaker 1: ethereum is kind of around thirteen and a half K
Speaker 1: as we record this Um, but I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot more. There's a lot more downside for both which
Speaker 1: will which we'll talk about a little later on. I
Speaker 1: think another thing worth pointing out so that you know
Speaker 1: we're now sort of moving post events, post merge. So
Speaker 1: there was a lot of expectation that institutions would kind
Speaker 1: of start piling into ethereum, you know, buying up eas
Speaker 1: once it's once it got, you know, whence it went
Speaker 1: green and its electricity consumption dropped. And Yeah, that that
Speaker 1: did not happen. Um. Now I think there are I
Speaker 1: think there are probably a few reasons for this. I
Speaker 1: think possibly it's it's a case institutions are sort of like, well,
Speaker 1: I think we're just going to wait a little longer
Speaker 1: and see that everything really is okay, because I think
Speaker 1: that's I think that's a wise moved, really very imprudent,
Speaker 1: I think. I think also it's just kind of representative
Speaker 1: of what's going on again in the wider markets. If, if, if, if,
Speaker 1: interest rates are going up in markets are about to tank,
Speaker 1: people are not investing exactly. Yeah, exactly. It's it's it's
Speaker 1: a time, I think, to be very much sitting on
Speaker 1: the sidelines and waiting to get a better picture of
Speaker 1: of where markets are going. Because, yeah, I think everyone,
Speaker 1: as I said earlier, so many people, are expecting a
Speaker 1: big old crash across the board. So, yeah, why would you?
Speaker 1: Why would you be investing now? Why would you be
Speaker 1: buying up stuff now if you think it's going to
Speaker 1: be much, much cheaper in a few yeah, exactly. So
Speaker 1: I think they're doing that. There is a kind of
Speaker 1: general trend towards just holding mostly dollars at the moment
Speaker 1: because risky, risky investments just aren't too popular when when
Speaker 1: interest rates are high, people, people want to have cash
Speaker 1: on hand in order to pay down debts and things
Speaker 1: like that. So yeah, there's that. There's been a lot
Speaker 1: of selling going on in order to get into dollars
Speaker 1: and also, yeah, not much buying. So so that's something
Speaker 1: I think you know that kind of that expectation was
Speaker 1: was snuffed out pretty quickly, and I think also there's
Speaker 1: a there's a sense that the institutions are waiting for
Speaker 1: some regulatory clarity as well, and this is tied into
Speaker 1: what you were saying, you know, about at the at
Speaker 1: the very time the merge was happening, the chairman of
Speaker 1: the SEC was making these comments that he believes could
Speaker 1: be a security. And again, I think if you were
Speaker 1: if you were a, you know, a large institution or
Speaker 1: or any kind of investor, you would want to have
Speaker 1: a better idea of what the regulatory landscape is going
Speaker 1: to look like, because you don't want to buy, you know,
Speaker 1: buy up an asset and then find that you've unwittingly
Speaker 1: bought an unregistered security or something like that. That would
Speaker 1: that would not be good. So yeah, those, uh, those
Speaker 1: are those are some of the reasons why why, you know,
Speaker 1: ethereum hasn't done so well post merge and again, the
Speaker 1: kind of wider crypto market as well. And Yeah, the
Speaker 1: the the SEC thing is quite worrying and in fact
Speaker 1: we've had a bit of a we've had another development
Speaker 1: on that front just in the past twenty four hours
Speaker 1: or so. News just breaking. Yeah, this is very much
Speaker 1: the news coming in over the wires. So yeah, so
Speaker 1: first of all, obviously, yeah, Gary Ginster, the SEC chairman,
Speaker 1: he views as a security because he argues that there
Speaker 1: is an identifiable person or entity behind it driving the
Speaker 1: expectation of profit, and this is this is key to
Speaker 1: how the SEC evaluates whether an asset is a security
Speaker 1: or not, and it's it's this thing, the how we test,
Speaker 1: which I think I might have talked about before. But
Speaker 1: there's a fourth criterion on it which says that an
Speaker 1: asset is a security if there is an identifiable third
Speaker 1: party driving the expectation of profit. So if you were,
Speaker 1: you know, if you were buying a stock, if you're
Speaker 1: buying a stock in Tesla, say, then that third party is,
Speaker 1: you know, Tesla the company, or you know, Elon Musk
Speaker 1: or you know anything like that. It's pretty easy to identify.
Speaker 1: Now the argument with ethereum has been that it's, quote unquote,
Speaker 1: sufficiently decentralized. This is what a former SEC officials said
Speaker 1: about ethereum a few years ago and we've kind of
Speaker 1: assumed since then that would be safe from a security
Speaker 1: securities classification. But that doesn't seem to be the case
Speaker 1: and I think Um Gary Ginsler's argument is that. Well,
Speaker 1: someone like fatal, I say, or the ethereum foundation or
Speaker 1: the ETHEREUM DEV team, you know, these are these, to him,
Speaker 1: are identifiable third parties driving the expectation of profit. And also,
Speaker 1: surely if they if they hold a lot of e,
Speaker 1: then it's not decentralized. Do you know what I mean?
Speaker 1: Like that's the whole the whole proof of steak thing
Speaker 1: is it's kind of okay, cool, those who've got the
Speaker 1: cash have got the power and can be leaned on
Speaker 1: and can be influential. Yeah, yeah, there are certainly a
Speaker 1: lot of a lot of centralization concerns around around ethereum is. Actually,
Speaker 1: now that it's that it's moved to proof of stake,
Speaker 1: what's for Tarlic and crude? I thought they were kind
Speaker 1: of pushing to be less less of a focal point around. How? How?
Speaker 1: How is that happening? Well, this is I mean this
Speaker 1: is something that's common with a lot of crypto projects
Speaker 1: now and you know, some, some have woken up to
Speaker 1: it pretty pretty Um, you know, in a big way,
Speaker 1: like Polka dot's a good example. So the guy who
Speaker 1: the guy who founded polka dot, Gavin Wood, who was
Speaker 1: one of the founders of ethereum as well. He has
Speaker 1: basically spent most of his time over the past year
Speaker 1: or so trying to decentralize Polka dot more because he has,
Speaker 1: you know, he has very much read the way the
Speaker 1: wind is blowing. Um. So yeah, I mean it's it's
Speaker 1: a difficult thing because how do you disassociate yourself? How
Speaker 1: do you as as say that the potemic figure of
Speaker 1: the project, like well, Gavin Wood is still polka dot really,
Speaker 1: and vitarlk certainly is for ethereum. How do you kind
Speaker 1: of distance yourself from it and and how do you
Speaker 1: argue that you don't have any kind of influence on
Speaker 1: on the price of ether or the price of DART
Speaker 1: or whatever it might be? Um. And it's I think
Speaker 1: it's a difficult thing to do. You know, vital it
Speaker 1: can argue. He's like, well, you know, I can't. I
Speaker 1: can't push code on my own, I can't decide on
Speaker 1: particular updates or anything like that. You know, it has
Speaker 1: to be it has to be a decision taken among
Speaker 1: the entire team. Um. But I mean you could still
Speaker 1: argue that Vitali could just, you know, he could take
Speaker 1: to twitter and and and move the markets because that,
Speaker 1: you know, people listen to him like that. So it's
Speaker 1: it's a difficult thing and there's lots of stuff going
Speaker 1: on behind the scenes. You know, if Um, ethereum. Sort
Speaker 1: of most crypto projects, I sort of you know, have
Speaker 1: a nonprofit, usually based in Switzerland, that sort of coordinates
Speaker 1: their development, quote unquote. So's it's just a testament to
Speaker 1: to the for D chess of yeah, like like, unless
Speaker 1: that was just a coincidence, but he kind of knew right,
Speaker 1: I can't be the figurehead for this and just vanished
Speaker 1: well before, like decade before any of this was really
Speaker 1: coming to come into a head. Yeah, it's very true.
Speaker 1: I think that is you know that. That's my personal
Speaker 1: theory on it, that whoever Satoshi is or was, took
Speaker 1: themselves yeah, realized that that you know, this, this this thing,
Speaker 1: can't work if there is an identifiable person, you know,
Speaker 1: at the heart of it, if you like, which is
Speaker 1: why they you know, they've they've disappeared. I mean you
Speaker 1: could argue that perhaps they're they're dead, but I for
Speaker 1: one thing that, yeah, that that is that is probably
Speaker 1: the most likely explanation. They've kind of removed themselves from
Speaker 1: the stage for this very reason, you know, in order
Speaker 1: that the project, you know, in this case Bitcoin, has
Speaker 1: a life of its own. Can't be can you know,
Speaker 1: decent realizes itself. And Yeah, that the difficulty is, how
Speaker 1: does something like ethereum and all these other crypto projects,
Speaker 1: particularly ones that are proof of steak, how do they
Speaker 1: move towards decentralization? It's a it's a very good question.
Speaker 1: There are and you know, we don't have, we don't
Speaker 1: have all the answers to that yet, which and I
Speaker 1: think that's going to be a big theme of the
Speaker 1: coming I say year, I mean I think a big
Speaker 1: theme of the coming few years really is how do
Speaker 1: these how do these crypto projects, decentralize? How do you
Speaker 1: put decentralization into action, because I think that's one of
Speaker 1: the you know, that's one of the only ways that
Speaker 1: these that these projects, can keep themselves safe from from regulations. Yeah, Um,
Speaker 1: so it's it's it's an exciting but kind of scary
Speaker 1: time for Ethereum, especially from the point of view of
Speaker 1: what regulators make of it as well. And then, Um,
Speaker 1: I so I alluded earlier to this news that are
Speaker 1: kind of just come through. So this is pretty crazy.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm going to give you a little bit
Speaker 1: of background and then the quote here. So the SEC
Speaker 1: um sort of yesterday, yesterday evening in the US, I
Speaker 1: think yesterday afternoon. Um, they have charged a kind of
Speaker 1: Crypto influencer called Ian Bellina. They've charged him with promoting
Speaker 1: unregistered I C O S. now, this goes back. I
Speaker 1: think this is from about five years ago or something. Um,
Speaker 1: and there's this crazy line in in the filing. I'm
Speaker 1: going to quote it here. So this is what the
Speaker 1: SEC said and just kind of just kind of bear
Speaker 1: this in mind. So this is referring to. Sorry, this
Speaker 1: is referring to an investment pool that Ian Berllina started
Speaker 1: for for a particular I C O quote. The US
Speaker 1: based investors in Bellina's pool irrevocably committed to the transaction when,
Speaker 1: from within the United States, they sent their contributions to
Speaker 1: Berlina's pool. At that point, their contributions were validated by
Speaker 1: a network work of nodes on the ethereum blockchain which
Speaker 1: are clustered more densely in the United States than in
Speaker 1: any other country. As a result, those transactions took place
Speaker 1: in the United States. Okay, that's a that's an interesting
Speaker 1: take on it. If they're, you know, how do they
Speaker 1: how can they prove where those nodes were Um based?
Speaker 1: You can look online. There are various resources online where
Speaker 1: you can where, you can see where where nodes are clustered.
Speaker 1: So it's it's fairly you know, it's it's fairly easily
Speaker 1: obtainable information. Um, but I mean this, this is, you know,
Speaker 1: enormous kind of overreach, I think, by the SEC. It's like, well, most,
Speaker 1: you know, the majority of ethereum nodes are in the
Speaker 1: United States. Therefore ethereum is American. That is that is
Speaker 1: pretty that is a pretty large imaginative leap. And is
Speaker 1: that something that's going to be the contested in court? Oh, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think Ian Bellina has already as already sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, hit back and, you know, denied the claims.
Speaker 1: Obviously it's a bit crazy. It's a crazy thing to
Speaker 1: see really because, yeah, it's, as I say, it does
Speaker 1: kind of smack of overreach. This is something that, you know,
Speaker 1: Ian Bellina's lawyers, I think we'll will kind of hone
Speaker 1: in on when they you know, if if the case,
Speaker 1: if the case comes to court, that that's something that
Speaker 1: they'll that they will push back against. But I mean, yeah,
Speaker 1: the the implications that are crazy. So I mean let's say,
Speaker 1: you know, according to the SEC, then let's say you
Speaker 1: and I, let's say I sent you, any transaction from
Speaker 1: here in Dubai over there to where you are in London.
Speaker 1: You know, because not involving, you know, any U S
Speaker 1: entities at all, but in the secs terms, oh well,
Speaker 1: because you know most of the validator on the network
Speaker 1: or American, you know that transaction falls within our jurisdiction
Speaker 1: and because Mad Mike Mooch is on the U S
Speaker 1: sanctions list, I have, I have potentially committed a crime
Speaker 1: by by interacting with you. You know, I'm I'm violating sanctions. Um, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that's a you know, it's a bit of
Speaker 1: a bit of a far fetched example. Or no, but
Speaker 1: it's kind of I kind of get it. It's kind
Speaker 1: of I don't get it, but I understand the point
Speaker 1: you're making. It's kind of like, okay, cool. Well, if, if,
Speaker 1: if you're gambling, if if you are, if you're playing
Speaker 1: online poker and the servers that the poker game is
Speaker 1: going through are based in America, does that mean you're
Speaker 1: gambling in America? No, surely not? Yeah, no, it's very true.
Speaker 1: It's very true. It's Um, it's it's a pretty as
Speaker 1: you say, it's a pretty bold claim for the SEC
Speaker 1: to make and I personally I don't think it will
Speaker 1: stand up, personally, but I mean don't show the extent
Speaker 1: towards to which the SEC seems to be, you know,
Speaker 1: going for Crypto. And one of the reasons I think
Speaker 1: it's doing this is because this is something I've kind
Speaker 1: of speculated about a few times. But we're coming towards
Speaker 1: the end of September and this is also going to
Speaker 1: be the end of the SEC's fiscal year and me
Speaker 1: and a few few colleagues here at Coinbureau we've kind
Speaker 1: of been speculating now that that we can expect to
Speaker 1: see a lot of a lot of action taken by
Speaker 1: the SEC. Yeah, to try and to try and justify
Speaker 1: a bigger budget, in the same way that, you know,
Speaker 1: councils always dig up the road towards the end of
Speaker 1: the taxia so they spend their entire budget and then
Speaker 1: they can argue that they need a bigger one for,
Speaker 1: you know, for the next fiscal year. This is this
Speaker 1: is something I think the sec is kind of doing
Speaker 1: something similar. It's saying, look, you know, we've got all
Speaker 1: these actions out against various entities in the crypto space,
Speaker 1: but we're going to need more money to fight them all, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So yeah, so that's that's a concern certainly. Another thing
Speaker 1: that I think, you know, it's going to a kind
Speaker 1: of way on on the crypto market in general over
Speaker 1: thecoming you know, over thecoming weeks and months, Um, and
Speaker 1: just too quickly before we before we take a quick
Speaker 1: break and move on to some good news, because I
Speaker 1: think it's I think we probably need to get in
Speaker 1: that sepreaction. Um, there are yeah, going back to these
Speaker 1: concerns around centralization, you know, they haven't gone away. So
Speaker 1: a good example is the of the first one thousand
Speaker 1: blocks validated after the merge, four and twenty of those,
Speaker 1: in other words, were validated by, we're validated by coin
Speaker 1: base and Lido Finance, so just two large validator entities. Obviously,
Speaker 1: coin base is bay in the United States. Lido finance
Speaker 1: is a Dow, a decentralized autonomous organization. It's not based
Speaker 1: in the United States, but a lot of the vcs
Speaker 1: who hold the LD O token, you know, who hold
Speaker 1: voting power within the Dow, they are based in the
Speaker 1: United States. So you could argue that, you know, of
Speaker 1: those first thousand blocks were validated by entities answerable to
Speaker 1: US authorities, you know, subject to your US jurisdiction, which
Speaker 1: again is pretty worrying and especially worrying when you factor
Speaker 1: in these kind of continued concerns around protocol level censorship.
Speaker 1: You know that we saw when we when we talked
Speaker 1: about the tornado cash sanctions and things like that. Yeah, Hmmm,
Speaker 1: how do they do this? Can they just can they
Speaker 1: move to Mexico? That could be an option. That could
Speaker 1: be an option. Coin Base has actually said that it's
Speaker 1: going to, you know, it's going to fight this in court,
Speaker 1: which is, you know, which is pretty pretty good going
Speaker 1: by coin base. Um. And actually, Brian Armstrong, the coin
Speaker 1: based CEO, said, you know, around the time the tornado
Speaker 1: cash sanctions were kind of kicking off, he said that,
Speaker 1: you know, he would prefer coin base sort of not to,
Speaker 1: you know, not to to validate on the network if
Speaker 1: it meant if doing so meant that they had to know,
Speaker 1: censor transactions. Um. But I mean remember, you know, validating
Speaker 1: on ethereum. If you're if you're a big validator, that's
Speaker 1: that that's a lucrative business that, you know, you can earn.
Speaker 1: You can earn good rewards for that, so we don't
Speaker 1: have to see. Because they're public, they're probably gonna need
Speaker 1: to to to, you know, be mindful of their shareholders, exactly. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they they really have to step into line because, you know, okay,
Speaker 1: however much you believe in decentralization, however much you want to,
Speaker 1: you know, you don't want to enact protocol level censorship
Speaker 1: if you you know, if if you're based in the
Speaker 1: US and doing so means you're violating sanctions. As I
Speaker 1: said in a previous episode, that's thirty years in jail
Speaker 1: or a ten million dollar fine, or possibly both, and
Speaker 1: no one is going to risk that. You know, however
Speaker 1: however much they they may, you know, they may believe
Speaker 1: in decentralization or what have you, no one is going
Speaker 1: to is going to willingly violate sanctions unless they're crazy.
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it's it's there's a lot of there's
Speaker 1: a lot of headwinds facing ethereum at the moment. There
Speaker 1: are a lot of challenges to overcome in the coming
Speaker 1: months and and this is this is the case for
Speaker 1: ethereum and you know, especially with all the kind of
Speaker 1: action that we're seeing from the SEC and others, it's
Speaker 1: a case for the whole crypto market as well. So really,
Speaker 1: I think, going back to that what I was saying
Speaker 1: about an upcoming crash, I think we can definitely expect
Speaker 1: lower lows from here. Okay, so just just be aware
Speaker 1: of that, my you. On that positive note, shall we
Speaker 1: take a quick break? Welcome back everyone, to part two
Speaker 1: and the good news. Finally, some good news. Mikey, I
Speaker 1: know you were, I know you were sort of you
Speaker 1: were worrying whether there was going to be any good news,
Speaker 1: whether I just dangled good news in front of you
Speaker 1: to try and keep you interested, whilst I just hit
Speaker 1: you repeatedly over the head with bad news. I've got
Speaker 1: the Good News Air Horn. There we go, good news coming.
Speaker 1: It's been too long. It's been too long. Yeah, there
Speaker 1: is good news. There's lots of there's lots of good
Speaker 1: news around the merge, for instance. Let's start well, first
Speaker 1: of all, is going to become a more attractive investment
Speaker 1: in the long term. Keywords long and term, because well,
Speaker 1: let's let's look at the headline thing, if you like.
Speaker 1: Ethereums electricity use is now absolutely minimal. Um Not, and
Speaker 1: this is a crazy statistic, I think so. Not only
Speaker 1: did ETHEREUM's energy. Energy used declined by Um, but the
Speaker 1: merge apparently reduced global electricity consumption by zero point two,
Speaker 1: which is yeah, I think that's nuts. Really, that is crazy.
Speaker 1: It did make me think as well. Are there many
Speaker 1: other industries out there that have addressed their carbon footprint
Speaker 1: to the same extent that Crypto has? I mean, you know, people, people,
Speaker 1: you know. It's a it's a stick that people use
Speaker 1: to beat crypto. We're saying, oh well, it uses all
Speaker 1: this energy and stuff like that. The cryptosector can now
Speaker 1: turn around and say, well, we've just we've just reduced
Speaker 1: our energy used by this much. What's your industry done?
Speaker 1: I mean, it made in that we're all violating security sanctions,
Speaker 1: but we have reduced energy by we're all going to prison,
Speaker 1: but at least the air in the exercise yard will
Speaker 1: be nice. No, no, it's, it is, it's, it's it's
Speaker 1: very good, it's very noble and it's kind of and
Speaker 1: it's it's the way we should be going if possible, while,
Speaker 1: you know, keeping the integrity of of the project. So
Speaker 1: it is great. It will. It is a long term view.
Speaker 1: I think you know, the nerds over ethereum have been
Speaker 1: thinking about this, have been concerned about this, have got
Speaker 1: a plan where only fifty of the way there now.
Speaker 1: Is that right? Yeah, yeah, that was that was metallic statistic.
Speaker 1: Ethereum is now apparently complete. Okay. So, and I think
Speaker 1: that's kind of good news in a way as well,
Speaker 1: because I think a lot of people may have been
Speaker 1: sort of looking at the merge and going, well, this
Speaker 1: will be, you know, the final transition and it will use,
Speaker 1: you know, a negligible amount of electricity and everything we
Speaker 1: find and no, we're we've still got a long way
Speaker 1: to go and in a way I think that is
Speaker 1: that is a good thing, because there's still a lot
Speaker 1: of work to be done on ethereum. It looks like
Speaker 1: the team are, you know, now very much focused on
Speaker 1: on those upcoming stages, which obviously we we talked a
Speaker 1: bit about last week. You know that the verge, surge,
Speaker 1: your favorite, the purge, and then the SPLURG as well,
Speaker 1: which we'll talk about a little later on. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean this, this energy reduction of Ethereum, I think
Speaker 1: is is a wonderful thing and for, you know, a
Speaker 1: number of reasons. I think one of the one of
Speaker 1: the things that occurred to me was that the argument
Speaker 1: that N F T S are bad for the planet
Speaker 1: has kind of evaporated like that, which I think that
Speaker 1: could open up a lot of a lot of adoption.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of artists, musicians, you know, are
Speaker 1: the others who are likely, you know, who have a
Speaker 1: have a use for N F T s. They are
Speaker 1: going to be able to do that in good conscience now.
Speaker 1: So that could be. That could but I think the
Speaker 1: long term good for the for the network. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: for sure. Yeah, and obviously the the the energy used reduction.
Speaker 1: That means that E S G focused firms, they each
Speaker 1: is a much, much more attractive proposition for them now
Speaker 1: because you know, they're very much they're very much bound
Speaker 1: by these E S G concerns. So that gives them,
Speaker 1: you know, that gives them an excuse, or or perhaps
Speaker 1: you could say one less excuse. Not It removes a
Speaker 1: barrier to investment from from them. So you know, it's
Speaker 1: it's Um it's attractive, more attractive proposition, which is which
Speaker 1: is good, because you want more money in it, you
Speaker 1: want more more people adopting it and more technology to
Speaker 1: be driven by it. Damn Straight, damn straight, and I
Speaker 1: think you know again from an institutional perspective, I think
Speaker 1: obviously these these guys do lots of due diligence, you know,
Speaker 1: they look into the project, they look at the people
Speaker 1: behind the project and stuff, and I think the fact
Speaker 1: that the ethereum team managed to pull off this merge,
Speaker 1: which really was a big, big deal, you know, and
Speaker 1: it was a difficult thing to have done, I think
Speaker 1: that investors doing their their due diligence will be able
Speaker 1: to look at that team and go these guys clearly
Speaker 1: know what they're doing. You know, okay, they look like
Speaker 1: they could use a wash and a new wardrobe. I
Speaker 1: think that's what you want in a nerd. Like if
Speaker 1: a nerd is is too well kept, they're not really
Speaker 1: in nerve. They need to have some sort of hot
Speaker 1: source on their top. Um, flagrant disregard for for the
Speaker 1: their health. B M I. UH, closer to to to
Speaker 1: to their age. Uh. And and you know, a receding hairline.
Speaker 1: That that's does the tell tell signs of someone who
Speaker 1: cares about a project because they have no care about
Speaker 1: anything else in their life. Very true. That is that.
Speaker 1: That is a good investment philosophy. So yeah, I think again,
Speaker 1: long term this is this is going. All these factors
Speaker 1: are going to make a much more, much more attractive
Speaker 1: asset for for when those institutional investors do actually decide
Speaker 1: to ape in, which obviously they didn't in the in
Speaker 1: the immediate aftermath of the merch and yeah, going back
Speaker 1: to what you were saying, as more people join the network,
Speaker 1: as more people invest in ease, as the ethereum network
Speaker 1: gets used more, because hopefully more people are minting and
Speaker 1: transacting n f t s and things like that, that
Speaker 1: means that as the network gets busier, more e is
Speaker 1: burned in transaction ease and that means that itself could
Speaker 1: become deflationary with enough network activity. And this, as you know,
Speaker 1: just as an investment case, that is a is a
Speaker 1: huge deal because if the if the supply is decreasing
Speaker 1: but the demand is increasing, the price goes up. That's
Speaker 1: that's what basically that's what economics one, Oh one, says.
Speaker 1: Now you can actually look at this on ultrasound dot money. Issuance.
Speaker 1: It's it hasn't gone deflationary yet, but it has slowed
Speaker 1: to zero point to one percent since the merge. So
Speaker 1: issuance is is very much on the decline. And Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think with enough, with enough activity will become deflationary
Speaker 1: due to those due to those fee burns. So yeah,
Speaker 1: there's also and then we've got these these other upgrades
Speaker 1: coming up, verge, surge, purge and splurge, that these are
Speaker 1: going to help further decentralize the network. They're going to
Speaker 1: make it faster and cheaper to you is Um. They're
Speaker 1: going to make it easier to become a validator as well,
Speaker 1: and this means that, you know, we could see some
Speaker 1: of these, some more of these investors decided to become validators.
Speaker 1: That would help further decentralize the network. Ideally, will have
Speaker 1: more people joining as validators from outside the United States
Speaker 1: so that becomes less regulatory capture from Yah, regulatory capture
Speaker 1: by the SEC becomes less of an issue. So yeah,
Speaker 1: the next kind of big upgrades is the Shanghai upgrade,
Speaker 1: which is set for some time in early three now.
Speaker 1: There's going to be some quite technical stuff going on
Speaker 1: with that, but it should allow some eth stakers to withdraw,
Speaker 1: so some validators will be able to unstake there if
Speaker 1: they want to. It should also make some improvements to
Speaker 1: gas prices as well. Now this ties into another bit
Speaker 1: of good news around the merge, because there was a
Speaker 1: lot of concern. Now, this was a bit of a
Speaker 1: misconception that suddenly, after the merge, people would be able
Speaker 1: to unstake their eath and there would be a flood
Speaker 1: of hitting the market and that would not only tank
Speaker 1: the price of eight but compromise the security of the network. Now,
Speaker 1: this didn't happen because that's not what the merge was about.
Speaker 1: But after the Shanghai upgrade next year you will be
Speaker 1: some some validators will be able to unstake. But fortunately
Speaker 1: the ethereum depths of have anticipated this. So withdrawals of
Speaker 1: steak teth are going to be staggered. So they can
Speaker 1: you know, they can only be done at a at
Speaker 1: a fairly slow pace. So we're not going to see
Speaker 1: a kind of mass dumping of steak teeth onto the market,
Speaker 1: which would not be not be good for ethereum Um.
Speaker 1: And I also think that you know that there was
Speaker 1: there was some data released recently that showed a lot
Speaker 1: of steak teeth was bought at around the SEV dollar mark. Now,
Speaker 1: if we take a look at those prices again, you
Speaker 1: know currently hovering around marks. So that would mean that
Speaker 1: any validators who did want to to unstake and sell.
Speaker 1: They're currently underwater anyway. So you you'd have to ask
Speaker 1: like why they would do that. And you know, if
Speaker 1: you're a validator, you you know that you're locking up
Speaker 1: your eath for for a long, long time. So I
Speaker 1: think these concerns that some validators might dump their onto
Speaker 1: the market as soon as they can, I think those
Speaker 1: are kind of unfounded. I'm sure we I'm sure we
Speaker 1: will see a bit of selling, but I don't think
Speaker 1: it will be anything, anything near enough to to crash
Speaker 1: the price or or really have any noticeable effect on
Speaker 1: eath security either. Well, that's good. I mean, I I
Speaker 1: it seemed to me as an ignoramers from the outside,
Speaker 1: that being if you've got some eath, unless you're day
Speaker 1: trading with it, Um, you, if you, if you stake it,
Speaker 1: it's just kind of a way of making it make
Speaker 1: money for your own money, for you, yeah, passive income.
Speaker 1: So it's kind of it's for those savers. It's kind
Speaker 1: of stick it there, forget about it. It can. It
Speaker 1: can make you a little bit of money and unless
Speaker 1: you know it crashes, then just yeah, that's what that's
Speaker 1: what it's kind of an investment. Yeah, if you believe
Speaker 1: in if you believe in ethereum in the long term,
Speaker 1: if you believe that it's a is a viable project
Speaker 1: and it's going to it's going to achieve all that
Speaker 1: it can all that it promises to, then staking is
Speaker 1: a great way of, you know, not only helping secure
Speaker 1: the network but also, yeah, earning this earning this passive
Speaker 1: income through through staking rewards. Um. So yeah, for me
Speaker 1: IT'S A it's a bit of a no brainer really,
Speaker 1: if you if you've got a long term view. And again,
Speaker 1: this is I think is something that could that could
Speaker 1: really help attract bigger investors as well, because big investors
Speaker 1: love passive I mean, who doesn't love passive income? Um,
Speaker 1: but you know, these guys will, I think, look at
Speaker 1: it in the same kind of way that they view
Speaker 1: dividends from from certain stocks. You know, it's like okay,
Speaker 1: it's it's worth having, it's worth having capital locked up
Speaker 1: for a long period of time because we get this,
Speaker 1: you know, we get this drip feed of income in
Speaker 1: the form of dividends or like a government bond. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the same. Yeah, it's the same reason why why people, yeah,
Speaker 1: invest in bonds because, yeah, you put a large you
Speaker 1: put a large sum down, you lock up liquidity, in
Speaker 1: other words, but you you earn interest on it over
Speaker 1: over a slower period and obviously the great thing about
Speaker 1: bonds is that you can, you know, you get that
Speaker 1: money back that you've invested as well after after a
Speaker 1: fixed term, after the term of the of the bond
Speaker 1: has expired. So, yeah, it makes a good case case
Speaker 1: for as an asset to earn passive income with which again,
Speaker 1: I think is going to make it a much more
Speaker 1: attractive long term investment. So that is yeah, that is
Speaker 1: some of that is some of the good news post merge.
Speaker 1: And Yeah, maybe maybe not quite as again, this is
Speaker 1: something we're going to have to not only kind of
Speaker 1: wait a long time for, we're just going to have
Speaker 1: to we we don't we don't really know how how
Speaker 1: the next few months are going to play out. I mean,
Speaker 1: as I say, we've got a pretty good idea that
Speaker 1: we're you know, we're going to see lots of regulatory action.
Speaker 1: We're also likely to see a crash in asset prices
Speaker 1: across the board and we're also like to see more
Speaker 1: inflation and all this sort of stuff. So this good
Speaker 1: news is something that you've kind of got to park
Speaker 1: for the time being and and look ahead to look
Speaker 1: quite a long way ahead too, sort of brighter days
Speaker 1: in the future. Well, Um, I can't wait for next week.
Speaker 1: How patient are you feeling? Like you you're you're not,
Speaker 1: are you? Are you a patient man? I I'm a
Speaker 1: lazy man. I think that's the most important thing to remember. So, like,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be selling or shipping anything because
Speaker 1: I can't be bothered. Um, and you know, it's it's
Speaker 1: it's a way out. I think it'll be fine. I mean,
Speaker 1: unless you know you need a new kidney and you
Speaker 1: have to buy one off the black market, then then
Speaker 1: sell your eath. Okay, I should also point out that
Speaker 1: that is not financial advice. Let's take even worse. Guy
Speaker 1: On a podcast said that I had to sell my
Speaker 1: kidney anyhow. Let's take one more quick break and then
Speaker 1: we'll just kind of look ahead to what else. You know,
Speaker 1: I look at a couple of other things that are
Speaker 1: having post merged. Welcome back everyone. Part three. We've had
Speaker 1: the bad news, we've had the good news, and now
Speaker 1: for kind of any other business. The News, the ugly news.
Speaker 1: You forgot the last news was bad. Wait, did you
Speaker 1: see this Um? Yeah, I suppose, the ugly news. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that's a good term for it. The other question
Speaker 1: I kind of wanted to address that some people have
Speaker 1: been asking is, like what happened to this proof of
Speaker 1: work fork of ethereum that everyone was kind of lots
Speaker 1: of people were getting kind of out this idea that
Speaker 1: ethereum minor because remember that some of the big some
Speaker 1: of the biggest losers from from the merge have been
Speaker 1: ethereum miners because, yeah, their main source of revenue is
Speaker 1: now gone and there's been a lot of speculation about
Speaker 1: what ethereum miners would do post merge. And again, actually,
Speaker 1: I think that kind of also ties into some of
Speaker 1: the some of the bad news or some of the
Speaker 1: some of the reasons why ethereum especially kind of struggled
Speaker 1: price wise in the days after the merger, because there
Speaker 1: was a lot of data are saying that in the
Speaker 1: lead up to the merge, exchange inflows of were really high.
Speaker 1: So what that meant was that lots of people were
Speaker 1: moving their too exchanges. Now there's only one reason generally
Speaker 1: why people do this, or one big reason, and that
Speaker 1: is in anticipation of selling it. So what we what
Speaker 1: we think is that a lot of ethereum miners kind
Speaker 1: of sold straight after the merge, you know, especially when
Speaker 1: that when when that little price pump went on Um,
Speaker 1: and that may have been them kind of capitulating. That
Speaker 1: may have been them just kind of selling all their
Speaker 1: all their assets and just getting out of the of
Speaker 1: the mining business altogether or, you know, just selling a
Speaker 1: lot to kind of cover their costs and advance things
Speaker 1: like that. So that that, I think, is another reason
Speaker 1: why the price uh tanked in in the days following
Speaker 1: the merge. So eth miners have kind of gone and
Speaker 1: done a few things. Some of them are mining other coin,
Speaker 1: other proof of work coins, of which there aren't an
Speaker 1: enormous amount. There's one called Raven coin, which has attracted
Speaker 1: quite a lot of you know, it's a Hash Ray
Speaker 1: to shut up Um. There's one called Ergo, which is
Speaker 1: kind of affiliated with Charles Hoskinson, who's the guy who
Speaker 1: found the founder of Cardano, which is obviously a rival
Speaker 1: to ethereum Um, and used to and was one of
Speaker 1: the ethereum co founder as well. He was the guy
Speaker 1: who was sort of CEO for a while until until
Speaker 1: he was booted out. So his sort of little side
Speaker 1: project ERGO. That's attracted a bit of Hash power from
Speaker 1: from ethereum miners. But there was also this proof of
Speaker 1: work fork. So Um, that was something that a lot
Speaker 1: of people were kind of worried about. The ticker for
Speaker 1: that is e w e. t e. w. Now this
Speaker 1: has kind of struggled really since the merge. It hasn't
Speaker 1: attracted all that much interest. There were a few setbacks
Speaker 1: for the networks as well. It suffered something called a
Speaker 1: relay attack, something, not a replay attack, Um, and it's
Speaker 1: it's now down. W is down sort or more from
Speaker 1: its all time high earlier in September, you know, kind
Speaker 1: of ahead of the merge. So yeah, it's it doesn't
Speaker 1: seem to be gaining much traction. It doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: be gaining an awful lot of support and, as you know,
Speaker 1: as a lot of people have pointed out, like why
Speaker 1: would it? We have ethereum classic already, that fork, that
Speaker 1: proof of work fork of ethereum from from the Dow Hack,
Speaker 1: which I think we mentioned in advance of the merge
Speaker 1: as well. So that's another I don't think that the
Speaker 1: proof of work fork thing doesn't it's still it's still going.
Speaker 1: It's still a thing, but it doesn't really appear to
Speaker 1: have played out and I don't think it's going to be.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to have any sort of
Speaker 1: real effect going forward. Okay, well, I feel for them.
Speaker 1: I do feel for the miners. Yeah, yeah, no, it's
Speaker 1: it's tough, isn't it? It's Um. Yeah, you've got to
Speaker 1: have some sympathy for them and stuff like that. It's
Speaker 1: they are, they are a big kind of casualty of
Speaker 1: the move to proof of steake Um. But yeah, Crypto,
Speaker 1: like any other business, can be ruthless sometimes, can't it?
Speaker 1: M Hm. Okay, so let's what let's kind of let's conclude.
Speaker 1: So there's lots to look forward to for ethereum and
Speaker 1: Crypto in general, but there's lots to be concerned about
Speaker 1: two Um. And I think the important thing perhaps to
Speaker 1: remember for for anyone, you know, all the listeners, is
Speaker 1: the bear market is going to continue for some time
Speaker 1: to come and, as you said, it could get a
Speaker 1: lot worse. Bear markets tend to, you know, they can
Speaker 1: last for a long time, and I think really the
Speaker 1: kind of, in a way, kind of good news is
Speaker 1: that this, this is a bear market that has been
Speaker 1: driven by much more kind of much more general factors.
Speaker 1: It's not a crypto specific bear market, even though there are,
Speaker 1: you know, particular there are kind of unique challenges facing
Speaker 1: the crypto sector, especially from centralization and especially from regulators
Speaker 1: like the SEC. This is still this is still a
Speaker 1: global problem. You know, global markets are are struggling with
Speaker 1: this as well. So, although it's although we've got a
Speaker 1: long time of it left, it will, it will come
Speaker 1: to an end. And well, there was a bit of
Speaker 1: good news. I don't know if you saw this, but
Speaker 1: there a few days ago the chief of the World
Speaker 1: Health Organization said that the pandemic could, the end of
Speaker 1: the pandemic could in fact be in sight. I thought
Speaker 1: it already was. Yeah, well, quite possibly. Yeah, yeah, no,
Speaker 1: the pandemic is still is still a thing, but according
Speaker 1: according to the World Health Organization, we could be, we
Speaker 1: could be about to see the end of that, which
Speaker 1: would be yeah, that would be great. I don't think
Speaker 1: anyone would anyone would be sad to the best. How
Speaker 1: are things going to improve? What is gonna what? What?
Speaker 1: What are we going to see? Is it gonna be gradual,
Speaker 1: improved is. It is if, if there is a ceasefire
Speaker 1: in the Ukraine, if if the pandemic is kind of
Speaker 1: slowly coming to an end and China stops this uh,
Speaker 1: this national citywide lockdowns, and production is going to start, Um,
Speaker 1: happening a bit more in and and and ships with
Speaker 1: full of goods are going to come out of China
Speaker 1: and across the world's sort of like as a catalyst
Speaker 1: for the economy. ARE PEOPLE GOING TO START IF inflation
Speaker 1: rates go down, how long is that gonna last? Is
Speaker 1: gonna last six months? Is gonna last a year? What? What?
Speaker 1: What are? What are your thoughts on all of this?
Speaker 1: When is the end of the tunnel happening? It's a
Speaker 1: good question. It's a good question and I think a
Speaker 1: lot of it is tied in with these with these
Speaker 1: interest rate hikes, because obviously the the driving factor behind
Speaker 1: those is high inflation. Um, now, when when interest rate
Speaker 1: gets high, interest rates get hiked, they take a while
Speaker 1: for the impact to be felt. Um, it can, you know,
Speaker 1: it can be a few months down the line that
Speaker 1: you know that you feel that you get a you
Speaker 1: know you get a sense that interest rate hikes are
Speaker 1: making a difference. So, yeah, in terms of time. I
Speaker 1: mean I think probably. I think three is going to
Speaker 1: be another tough year, but I would hope that by
Speaker 1: the end of next year we could we could be
Speaker 1: starting to see, I suppose, what you'd call green shoots.
Speaker 1: You know, hopefully by then inflation is, if not under control,
Speaker 1: you know, is starting to noticeably decline. These high interest
Speaker 1: rates are starting to have the desired effect. Um and,
Speaker 1: as you say, sort of by that point you would
Speaker 1: hope that trade has resumed somewhat, certainly that the war
Speaker 1: in Ukraine has come to end. I mean, we seem
Speaker 1: to have that seemed that situation, I think, seems to
Speaker 1: have kind of improved slightly over the last couple of
Speaker 1: weeks or so, because Ukraine is actually doing quite well,
Speaker 1: you know, they they've actually pushed the Russians back a lot. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't think that means that the end of the
Speaker 1: war is in sight, but it could say. I think
Speaker 1: it certainly suggests that it's a war Ukraine could win
Speaker 1: and that, you know, that an end could come. But yeah, so,
Speaker 1: I mean I think in answer to your question how
Speaker 1: long we can expect, I think we've got another know,
Speaker 1: another year of this at least, but I would hope
Speaker 1: that by, you know, sort of early four a lot
Speaker 1: of these a lot of these problems would have been,
Speaker 1: you know, will have reduced a lot. Will hopefully have
Speaker 1: much lower inflation. The situation in Ukraine hopefully, you know,
Speaker 1: hopefully peace will have will have been restored. Um, and obviously, yeah,
Speaker 1: as pandemic restrictions. You know, if the pandemic really has gone,
Speaker 1: really is brought to an end, then then, yeah, manufacturing
Speaker 1: cranks back up, it should be. It should be noted
Speaker 1: actually at this point that if, if the pandemic is
Speaker 1: kind of officially, you know, officially declared over, it could
Speaker 1: actually have a negative effect on markets because some people
Speaker 1: are speculated that because of these Chinese lockdowns at the moment,
Speaker 1: because so much of China is on the lockdown still. Um,
Speaker 1: this has manufacturing output there. Remember China. I mean it
Speaker 1: makes pretty much everything. Manufacturing output has actually been way
Speaker 1: down in China. Now. If manufacturing in China suddenly restarts,
Speaker 1: the demand for energy from that will be massive and
Speaker 1: obviously energy is a big, big problem at the momentum.
Speaker 1: Energy shortages and rising energy prices are one of the
Speaker 1: big drivers of inflation and, you know, unrest as well.
Speaker 1: Around the world. So it might be that the end
Speaker 1: of the pandemic isn't quite the isn't quite the sort
Speaker 1: of White Swan that that we might have hoped for.
Speaker 1: But I think still by their energy mostly from Russia,
Speaker 1: though I think China gets a lot of its energy
Speaker 1: from Russia. But I mean in this sort of situation
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter where particular countries get their energy from,
Speaker 1: because all that really matters is that because, because we
Speaker 1: live in such a globalized world, shortages somewhere, shortages, let's
Speaker 1: say the energy shortages in Europe, have an effect on
Speaker 1: global prices because the commodity, that the amount of the
Speaker 1: commodity in circulation, has dropped thereby the price goes up.
Speaker 1: So this is why, you know, when people say, oh well,
Speaker 1: you know these these energy these energy concerns are, you know,
Speaker 1: their Europe's problem. There there's something between Europe and Russia.
Speaker 1: It's it's not the case prices go up across the
Speaker 1: world because there's less energy to go around. But there's
Speaker 1: not less energy. The reason why there's an energy sorted
Speaker 1: is because of the sanctions. I thought that. So like
Speaker 1: Russia has still got the gas. They're just not we're
Speaker 1: not able to buy it because they're being rascals. Yeah, yeah, certainly. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that sounds like. This is my sort of trying
Speaker 1: to just figure it out and understand. Okay, cool, or
Speaker 1: if if China comes back online and and and starts
Speaker 1: making stuff again, if they buy their it's not good
Speaker 1: for the war in Ukraine, because the sanctions mean less
Speaker 1: Um and and. But I assumed basically people. I thought
Speaker 1: we were buying Russian oil from India anyway, not Russian
Speaker 1: gas from India. That's what I was I was told,
Speaker 1: you know, because we're buying gas from India now and
Speaker 1: they're buying it from Russia, and it's just, HMM, yeah,
Speaker 1: it just gets it just goes through different sources now,
Speaker 1: I think. Yeah, I mean the sanctions are the sanctions
Speaker 1: are a big, big you know, the main reason why
Speaker 1: there are these these energy shortages because Russia isn't able
Speaker 1: to export so much of its gas or its oil,
Speaker 1: Um and, I mean, look, you know again, this is
Speaker 1: this is something, this is something to to think about
Speaker 1: in in terms of the future because, let's say, let's
Speaker 1: say the war in Ukraine comes to an end, let's
Speaker 1: say because of the way it's going at the moment
Speaker 1: that Ukraine is actually Ukraine actually wins, that the West
Speaker 1: is prepared to keep pumping enough money and weapons and
Speaker 1: all that stuff, sort of stuff into Ukraine to actually
Speaker 1: to actually mean they're able to kick the Russians out
Speaker 1: and the war comes to an end. What happens with
Speaker 1: Russia then, you know, do do do Western countries? Does
Speaker 1: Europe and America turn around and go, okay, well, you
Speaker 1: take the L Putin will lift the sanctions now because
Speaker 1: the war is is over. You know, I don't think that.
Speaker 1: I can't see that happening. I think the only way
Speaker 1: that we could see sanctions lifted is if, is if
Speaker 1: Russia voluntarily pulled out, you know, and said look, well,
Speaker 1: we're sorry, it won't happen again. Let's let's all be
Speaker 1: friends and let's start trading against stuff. Can you see
Speaker 1: that happen, because I I certainly can't. So, you know,
Speaker 1: there's perhaps perhaps this idea of sort of looking further
Speaker 1: along the line and thinking, when is everything going to
Speaker 1: get back to how it was? It won't, you know,
Speaker 1: things are going to be very, very different, and already
Speaker 1: there's a lot of talk about food and energy independence,
Speaker 1: because this, you know this. This war and this sanction
Speaker 1: and these sanctions have really exposed like, especially for Europe,
Speaker 1: but I think in general as well. You know how
Speaker 1: how delicate everything is, and covid has done this as well,
Speaker 1: how delicate supply chains are, how delicate the whole this
Speaker 1: whole kind of globalized world is, and actually the only
Speaker 1: way that you can really prepare for an unforeseen crisis
Speaker 1: like a war or a pandemic or whatever, is to
Speaker 1: try and be as energy independent as you can or
Speaker 1: grow as much as your own food as you can.
Speaker 1: You don't, and I think this is something that we're
Speaker 1: going to see a big trend towards, and this is
Speaker 1: from an environmental perspective as well, because I think people
Speaker 1: are becoming more and more concerned about the fact that
Speaker 1: food gets shipped around the world and obviously you know
Speaker 1: that that's carbon emissions and things like that. So I
Speaker 1: think we are going to see a trend towards countries
Speaker 1: trying to produce more of their own energy and more
Speaker 1: of their own food, you know, more of their own
Speaker 1: goods and things like that, and some people are are
Speaker 1: really kind of talking about a possible end to globalization,
Speaker 1: which is I mean I think that's a fairly bold
Speaker 1: call at this stage, but I don't think you can,
Speaker 1: I don't think you can deny that we're going through
Speaker 1: a period of enormous change and things aren't you know,
Speaker 1: things are hopefully going to look a lot better in,
Speaker 1: you know, in four say, but they're also going to
Speaker 1: look a lot different as well, and we just got
Speaker 1: to hope, I think, that they look different in a
Speaker 1: good way. MM HMM. So we're going to have to
Speaker 1: be off grid as a country? Yeah, and everyone's going
Speaker 1: to have to grow their own vegetables, have get solar
Speaker 1: panels on your on your house, dig up your garden
Speaker 1: and turn it into a vege patch, insulate your roof, Um,
Speaker 1: keep lots of tin foods. Guy, that was that was
Speaker 1: the cheeriest news I've heard from you. But it's about
Speaker 1: eye opening. You know, maybe, maybe, maybe it is is
Speaker 1: more of a shift in our life than than we
Speaker 1: are acknowledging. And you know, higher energy prices are something
Speaker 1: that's going to be here for a while until we
Speaker 1: adopt Um, nuclear or some other sort of which don't. Don't.
Speaker 1: Don't try to own all the nuclear power stations in
Speaker 1: the UK anyway. Yeah, I think so. They're basically paying
Speaker 1: for them. I think. Um, yeah, that's the if they if.
Speaker 1: If you wanted an example of globalization in action, there
Speaker 1: you go it. Yeah, I think this is a this
Speaker 1: is a very long term thing, but the future is
Speaker 1: going to the future is going to look a lot different.
Speaker 1: MM HMM. There's food for thought. Um. So, Mikey, I'm
Speaker 1: glad I've been able to to to dampen your mood.
Speaker 1: It's all right, the my I q will mean that
Speaker 1: I will forget about this shortly. Ignorance is bliss, and
Speaker 1: I will have a cup of tea and will be
Speaker 1: all right. But couple a couple of a couple of
Speaker 1: cups of tea, a donut or two and you'll be
Speaker 1: right as rain. Yeah, you had to sort a little fat.
Speaker 1: I've been there, noted. You'll remember that. Um, I will
Speaker 1: try and for next week's episode, I will try and
Speaker 1: talk about something more cheerful. How about that? Why don't
Speaker 1: we do that? Why don't we? Why don't we? Let's
Speaker 1: get into the WHATSAPP and start thinking about some some
Speaker 1: brighter topics that we can sort of divulge into and explore. Okay, okay,
Speaker 1: good idea. I am I am sort of trying to
Speaker 1: work towards doing an episode on Toshi Nakamoto as well,
Speaker 1: because I've seen a few people asking for that. I
Speaker 1: did sort of promise that. We did kind of promise
Speaker 1: to do that a while ago and a few people
Speaker 1: have held me to that and I think it's something.
Speaker 1: I think it's something we'd both enjoy. I think, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'd love to learn more about that, but without doing
Speaker 1: any of the research myself. Okay, well, that's fortunately where
Speaker 1: I come in. I'm wonderful. All right, man. Well, it's
Speaker 1: been lovely to talk to you and to everyone in light.
Speaker 1: We'll see see you next week. Thanks for listening, everyone.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening to the Coin Bureau podcast.
Speaker 1: If you'd like to learn more about cryptocurrency, you can
Speaker 1: visit our Youtube Channel at Youtube Dot Com forward slash
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