WEBVTT - A Post-Merge Post-Mortem 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:03.320 The Coin Bureau podcast is a production of I heart radio, 0:00:03.680 --> 0:00:05.400 and I think a big theme of the coming few 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:08.920 years really is how do these how do these crypto projects, decentralize? 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.600 How do you put decentralization into action, because I think 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:15.480 that's one of the you know, that's one of the 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:18.960 only ways that these that these projects, can keep themselves 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:35.120 safe from from regulations. Welcome everyone to the Coin Bureau podcast. 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:39.560 My name is guy and this gentleman's name is Mad 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:44.360 Mike Mooch the third. Welcome back, Mad Mike moned the third. 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.840 It's good to see you. Sir. I am still here 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.600 in Sunny Dubai, where it is thirty eight degrees Celsius, 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:55.320 a very mild thirty eight degree Celsius by by Dubai standards, 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.840 and you are back in your man Cave in London. 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.960 How is how is London? What's the mood like? What's 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.360 what's the old weather like? It's it's the same, you know. 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:09.200 We've got some sunshine but freezing cold temperatures. The Queen 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:13.720 is still dead. No undertaker, sort of last minute sort 0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:17.840 of resurrection. We're all getting on with life and it's 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.280 all going okay. I mean things are pretty much the same, 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:25.160 unlike maybe the world of Crypto, with some big changes 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:30.240 have happened. But an absolutely beautiful segue. I really admire that. 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:34.759 That's wonderful. Yeah, a lot has yeah, things are very 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.720 different from the last time we spoke. Obviously, last week 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.160 we did our episode, are kind of on the hoof 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:44.920 episode where we looked ahead to the merge, to ethereums merge, 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:48.520 and this week we're going to look back on ethereums 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:51.360 merge and and see kind of what the landscape is. 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:54.440 What's changed, what's going on, what do we need to 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:58.000 be aware of and, I think crucially as well, what 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.440 what might be around the corner? Yeah, well, that's that's 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.240 what everyone wants to know and we can pontificate on 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:08.720 that and I'm sure people will take advice, but not 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:15.240 financial advice exactly, exactly, because of course it isn't financial advice, Um, 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:20.280 which is, yeah, which is something everyone should remember. Um. So, yeah, 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:22.680 I've I've kind of I made some notes about what 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:24.240 I was going to talk about and I've kind of 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:27.320 divided it up. Part one I'm just going to call 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:30.920 the bad news, because I'm afraid there is a little 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.960 bit of bad news. Um, and but don't worry, anyone 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:37.639 listening the good news. Part two is the good news 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.760 and then part three is sort of any other business. 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.120 So well, let's just start. Let's let's get on with 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.280 the bad news, shall we? Well, in fact, we can 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:49.480 start with some good news, which most people will probably 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:51.400 be aware of if they've been paying any sort of 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:56.480 attention to crypto over the last well, since since last Thursday. Basically, 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:01.880 the merge all went to plan and nothing, nothing went wrong. 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:05.440 And so far nothing, nothing really has gone wrong with 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:10.480 ethereum itself, which is which is great. Um, no portals 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:12.760 to the other world have been opened or anything like that, 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.760 certainly certainly not that fatalk or any of the other 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.880 devs are admitting to. I don't think they opened up 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:24.760 a gate of Hell beneath beneath the ethereum foundation or 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:27.079 anything like that. But but I mean, you know, they may. 0:03:27.200 --> 0:03:30.840 They may just be keeping that one under wraps. So 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:36.160 that's not the bad news. So yeah, and it was. 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:38.240 I don't I'm I I don't know if you were 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.960 sort of paying attention at the time, Mikey. Obviously I 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:43.360 was kind of glued to my laptop. I was watching 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:48.520 it via a live stream from the ethereum foundation, and 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:51.280 I mean talk about Geek Central. It was. It was 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.640 absolutely wonderful. It was a great thing to watch. It 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:56.960 was it was kind of weird because, you know, everyone's 0:03:57.080 --> 0:03:58.640 there's there's quite a lot. There were quite a lot 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:03.440 of devs on the on the Stream. Vitilt himself cropped 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:06.760 up a couple of times, which was really cool. And Yeah, 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.120 all of a sudden the block was the block was 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:11.960 pushed and, you know, the block was created, the code 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:15.160 was pushed and we would switch to proof of stake. 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:18.880 It was and they had some little pandas appear, because 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.680 the Etherean community are very fond of pandas. Yeah, so 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.640 it all went it all went smoothly and you could 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.200 really sense watching the stream. You know, you could really 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:32.559 sense the relief kind of flooding through all these people 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.159 because they, yeah, they looked very tired. They'd obviously been, 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:40.200 you know, working really, really hard for days, weeks, months, 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:42.520 years on end really to to kind of get this, 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.600 get this thing over the line. And Yeah, it was 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:49.119 it was impossible not to feel sort of really really 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:52.360 happy for them because, yeah, they deserved it. It was 0:04:52.800 --> 0:04:56.719 it was a really monumental effort and yeah, it's. And 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.880 there was this kind of brief sort of surge of 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:03.880 optimism in the crypto markets, which we haven't seen really since, 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:07.159 since the bullmarket ended, and I was kind of keeping 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:10.159 half an eye on prices, you know, I was trying 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.680 to get work done, but I slipped into that bad 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:15.440 habit that so many of us crypto people have, sort 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:20.640 of refreshing the price charts every two minutes or so. Um, well, 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:23.320 we've all been there. But it was it was exciting 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.279 to see. I mean I I didn't expect it to last, 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:28.760 but it was. It was kind of good to see 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:32.360 this little sort of relief rally and obviously the price 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.000 started shooting up as well as, you know, kind of 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.920 crypt the market in general. It was it made a nice, 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:42.360 nice change from sort of recent weeks. Um, however, that 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:47.080 that relief rally didn't last all that lot. It was 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:49.719 it was, you know, two or three hours or so, 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:54.120 maybe not even that. And Yeah, things started, things started 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:57.760 tumbling back downward and it was obviously, you know, what 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:00.599 what those in in investment circles call a kind of 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:02.640 sell the news event. You know, you buy the rumor 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.240 and then you sell the news, and I think the 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:09.400 ethereum merge may go down as one of the classics 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:14.360 sell the news events in Crypto. Um, because, yeah, it's 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.600 it's kind of looking at it's, you know, looking at 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:19.359 it a few days onwards, it seems now like the 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:22.120 merge was kind of a bit of a short break 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:25.760 from reality and then, you know, after a couple of hours, 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:29.920 reality sort of sidled back into the room and went right. 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.320 Probably just raising a point before, seconds before you do, 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:37.760 but didn't as soon as the merge happened. Proof of 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:42.080 steak get basically hinted that it was going to be 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:46.520 anything that does that is going to be a security. Now. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, yeah, 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:50.279 I was. Yeah, you're on the ball today, sir. Yeah, 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:52.919 because at the same time that the merge was happening, 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:56.280 the Chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, who's sort of, 0:06:56.760 --> 0:07:00.400 I guess, Krypto's biggest bogey man at the moment, he 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:06.040 was actually testifying in Washington and here he said, you know, 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:09.520 he he pretty much said that he and, Um, you know, 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:13.240 the SEC, by extension, believe that the proof of state 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:18.440 cryptocurrencies could be designated as securities. And the timing on 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:23.320 that is that malicious. It's hard to imagine otherwise, I think. 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.000 I mean it may just be it may just be 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:27.400 a coincidence. There seems to have been quite quite a 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:30.640 few coincidences kind of knocking around the crypto space at 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.679 the moment. But this, this seemed to be this seemed 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:37.880 to be a curious coincidence perhaps, but yeah, it could 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:42.520 it could well have been deliberate, um, but yeah, so 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:45.160 that was that kind of that kind of hit the 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:46.880 markets a little bit. I'll talk about that in a 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:51.520 moment because actually the what was more consequential had actually 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:55.760 taken place the day before, because on the Wednesday, um, 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:58.440 so less than kind of twenty four hours before before 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:02.320 the merge was due, the latest inflation figures, the consumer 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:06.440 price index, the CPI, came out in the US, and 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.000 it wasn't all that good. It was it was it 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:14.480 showed eight point three percent inflation over in the states. Now, 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:17.520 this is actually this was actually down a couple of 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:20.600 points from the previous months. So these were the inflation 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:24.920 figures for August. So they were slightly lower than the 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.760 inflation figures have been for July, which does kind of 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:33.360 suggest that inflation, you know, maybe starting to go down 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.560 a little bit. But you know, everyone was kind of 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:38.880 everyone was kind of hoping that they'd be a lot 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.600 lower than that. So that, if you like, you know, 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.400 before the merge it even happened, that the sort of 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:48.840 wider world that you know, the global macro landscape, had 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:51.640 sort of, you know, poked its head round the door 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:54.480 and sort of said, you know, I'm still here, things 0:08:54.520 --> 0:09:03.520 are still really worry we're all still fucked M it. Exactly, yeah, exactly. Um. So, yeah, 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:06.800 so that kind of that really dampened enthusiasm in the 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:09.680 markets that that kind of took any winds that there 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:12.679 was out of the sales. And I should also point 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.320 out that that that the core CPI, which is the 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:20.400 same measure but excludes energy and food, that actually went 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:24.440 up by over half a percentum. Yeah, and that is 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:28.400 that is not good news at all. So basically, inflation 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:31.959 in the US, in in case anyone had missed it, 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:35.560 is still really, really high. And this means that the 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:40.000 Federal Reserve, which meets, we're recording this on Tuesday, so 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:45.800 the Federal Reserve will meet tomorrow, on Wednesday one. This 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.920 is going to be their first meeting since there, since 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:51.000 they all went off on their on their summer break, 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:57.640 and they are going to hike interest rates again. And Yeah, previously, 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.440 you know, a few weeks ago, the EXPECTA Asian was 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:03.120 that they probably hike it by hike them by half 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:07.120 a percent, fifty basis points. Actually, it now looks much 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.240 more likely that they're going to hike it by three 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:13.640 quarters of a percent, seventy five basis points. So, yeah, 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:18.000 you know, it's interest rates are going to have another big, 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:22.600 big pump. And actually there is, you know, a more 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:26.560 than there's about a kind of eighteen chance at the 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:29.520 moment as we record this, that they could actually hike 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:33.240 it a full one percent. That doesn't seem to be 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:35.880 off the table now. If they hiked rates a full 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:40.880 one percent, yeah, that would not be markets, especially Crypto, 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:43.840 but you know, kind of all markets would really, you know, 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:49.120 would really soil, soil the sheets, because a one percent 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:53.199 rate hike would be the largest in forty years, which 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:59.240 is a pretty, yeah, pretty sobering thought really. So, yeah, 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:03.520 it really Um basically the kind of the the outlook 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.360 at the moment, what everyone's kind of looking towards is 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:08.640 that we're that we are going to see a big 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:12.679 old drop across all markets, and some people are actually 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:15.240 predicting that it could be even worse than the drop 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.840 that we saw in two thousand and eight, after the 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:24.160 after the finite, in the wake of the financial crisis. So, yeah, 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:29.800 it's it's not too cheerful from that perspective. I'm afraid 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:32.480 a lot of people are, you know, are really kind 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:37.480 of bracing themselves for for more pain. Well, I'm enjoying 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:41.120 these sessions each week where where we we, we, we 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:45.280 call each other, you tell us how life is going 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:49.120 to be even worse. Uh, and then and then we we, 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:51.200 we sign off on a sort of cheery note and 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:56.800 then it gets worse next week again. So great for 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:03.600 next week when when the sun is extinguished. So yeah, 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:06.840 so the giant meteorite heading towards that. That has kind 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:09.800 of really that has really got that sped up worried. 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.840 Now due Wednesday. Yeah, we've now got a definite date 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.880 for that. That's impact. I mean. Is this? Is this? 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.480 Is this not just reminiscent of the of the eighties? Wasn't? 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.440 Didn't we have se interest rates or something like that 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.760 in the eighties or something like that? Yeah, back in 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:32.680 the seventies. Yeah, yeah, so that was that's kind of 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:35.000 fame and that that era is getting talked about a 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:38.000 lot at the moment, obviously because, you know, we're seeing 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.000 we're starting to see comparable levels of inflation. And actually, 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.120 back in the back in the seventies, the the chairman 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.400 of the Federal Reserve was a chap called Paul Volca, 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.000 and his name is cropping up a lot in, you know, 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:53.320 in the kind of financial, financial media at the moment 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:58.400 because he hyped rates to around tw to to get 0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:01.880 that inflation under control. Um, now, for context, we're we're 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.720 not we're we're sort of, you know, pushing towards the 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.199 three percent level. We're we're kind of hovering around there 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:12.120 at the moment. So there's there's lots of upside for 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:17.160 for interest rates. Unfortunately, Um, it remains to be seen whether, 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.760 you know, whether we'll whether we'll get anywhere near that figure. 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.200 I think things will have to get really pretty bad 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.120 for rates to go that high. But I mean, you know, 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:29.559 the Fed and other central banks have, you know, our 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.320 hiking rates a lot now. I think I think there's 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.440 due to be another one in the UK, maybe even tomorrow, 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.439 at the same time that the Fed is is hiking rates. 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:43.040 The the European Central Bank the ECB there hiking rates now. 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.280 You know, the higher interest rates are just going to 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:49.200 be a thing for you know, for the next few, 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.400 possibly years. So that's that's something too. That's something to 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:59.280 look forward to. Um. Yeah, so kind of already ahead 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:02.760 of the merge, there were there were concerns, there were 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.000 you know, there were things weighing on the market. So 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:07.679 the merge came, it was a success. The market's kind 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.000 of pumped a little bit in, you know, as if 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.720 to kind of acknowledge that, and then they started crashing again, 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.280 and I mean they are still crashing. Let's just have 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.400 a quick look at the child. Like yesterday seems to 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:20.680 be a bit of a dip and it's gone up 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.760 a little bit today. Um, that's my scientific look at it. 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.800 That's your technical analysis done. Yeah, it is up a 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:34.080 little bit today. Yeah, that's true. Bitcoin, Bitcoin and Etherorum 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.920 are both up over three percent today, but I mean 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:44.400 they're both still, oh yeah, yeah, massively down, especially especially etherorum. 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:51.800 ethereums down over on the week. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, Bitcoin, 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.720 Bitcoin is below twenty k which is you know that 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.560 that's a that's a twenty K is is a fairly 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:02.480 sort of strong psychology call support level for for Bitcoin 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.400 ethereum is kind of around thirteen and a half K 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.240 as we record this Um, but I think there's a 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:12.360 lot more. There's a lot more downside for both which 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:14.960 will which we'll talk about a little later on. I 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:17.480 think another thing worth pointing out so that you know 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:20.560 we're now sort of moving post events, post merge. So 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:25.000 there was a lot of expectation that institutions would kind 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:28.400 of start piling into ethereum, you know, buying up eas 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:31.240 once it's once it got, you know, whence it went 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:35.800 green and its electricity consumption dropped. And Yeah, that that 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.840 did not happen. Um. Now I think there are I 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:40.640 think there are probably a few reasons for this. I 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:45.400 think possibly it's it's a case institutions are sort of like, well, 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:47.480 I think we're just going to wait a little longer 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.720 and see that everything really is okay, because I think 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:55.600 that's I think that's a wise moved, really very imprudent, 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:59.520 I think. I think also it's just kind of representative 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.320 of what's going on again in the wider markets. If, if, if, if, 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:05.600 interest rates are going up in markets are about to tank, 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:11.240 people are not investing exactly. Yeah, exactly. It's it's it's 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.840 a time, I think, to be very much sitting on 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:17.400 the sidelines and waiting to get a better picture of 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:20.000 of where markets are going. Because, yeah, I think everyone, 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:23.280 as I said earlier, so many people, are expecting a 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.920 big old crash across the board. So, yeah, why would you? 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:28.880 Why would you be investing now? Why would you be 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:30.480 buying up stuff now if you think it's going to 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:36.680 be much, much cheaper in a few yeah, exactly. So 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.040 I think they're doing that. There is a kind of 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:43.240 general trend towards just holding mostly dollars at the moment 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.280 because risky, risky investments just aren't too popular when when 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:51.080 interest rates are high, people, people want to have cash 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.360 on hand in order to pay down debts and things 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.000 like that. So yeah, there's that. There's been a lot 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.240 of selling going on in order to get into dollars 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:02.560 and also, yeah, not much buying. So so that's something 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.959 I think you know that kind of that expectation was 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:10.080 was snuffed out pretty quickly, and I think also there's 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.600 a there's a sense that the institutions are waiting for 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.320 some regulatory clarity as well, and this is tied into 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:18.280 what you were saying, you know, about at the at 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.639 the very time the merge was happening, the chairman of 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:25.040 the SEC was making these comments that he believes could 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.600 be a security. And again, I think if you were 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.520 if you were a, you know, a large institution or 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.159 or any kind of investor, you would want to have 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:37.119 a better idea of what the regulatory landscape is going 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.280 to look like, because you don't want to buy, you know, 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:42.199 buy up an asset and then find that you've unwittingly 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.440 bought an unregistered security or something like that. That would 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:50.160 that would not be good. So yeah, those, uh, those 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.199 are those are some of the reasons why why, you know, 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.639 ethereum hasn't done so well post merge and again, the 0:17:56.720 --> 0:18:00.399 kind of wider crypto market as well. And Yeah, the 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:03.040 the the SEC thing is quite worrying and in fact 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:05.320 we've had a bit of a we've had another development 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.520 on that front just in the past twenty four hours 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.760 or so. News just breaking. Yeah, this is very much 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:14.080 the news coming in over the wires. So yeah, so 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.240 first of all, obviously, yeah, Gary Ginster, the SEC chairman, 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:20.880 he views as a security because he argues that there 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:24.560 is an identifiable person or entity behind it driving the 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.320 expectation of profit, and this is this is key to 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:31.840 how the SEC evaluates whether an asset is a security 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.359 or not, and it's it's this thing, the how we test, 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:36.320 which I think I might have talked about before. But 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.320 there's a fourth criterion on it which says that an 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:42.840 asset is a security if there is an identifiable third 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:47.160 party driving the expectation of profit. So if you were, 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:48.960 you know, if you were buying a stock, if you're 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.879 buying a stock in Tesla, say, then that third party is, 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.800 you know, Tesla the company, or you know, Elon Musk 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.160 or you know anything like that. It's pretty easy to identify. 0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:03.240 Now the argument with ethereum has been that it's, quote unquote, 0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:06.800 sufficiently decentralized. This is what a former SEC officials said 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:11.520 about ethereum a few years ago and we've kind of 0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:16.080 assumed since then that would be safe from a security 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.280 securities classification. But that doesn't seem to be the case 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:22.640 and I think Um Gary Ginsler's argument is that. Well, 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:26.639 someone like fatal, I say, or the ethereum foundation or 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:30.320 the ETHEREUM DEV team, you know, these are these, to him, 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:34.919 are identifiable third parties driving the expectation of profit. And also, 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.080 surely if they if they hold a lot of e, 0:19:39.760 --> 0:19:42.280 then it's not decentralized. Do you know what I mean? 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:44.440 Like that's the whole the whole proof of steak thing 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:47.879 is it's kind of okay, cool, those who've got the 0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:50.359 cash have got the power and can be leaned on 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:55.760 and can be influential. Yeah, yeah, there are certainly a 0:19:55.760 --> 0:20:00.359 lot of a lot of centralization concerns around around ethereum is. Actually, 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:02.600 now that it's that it's moved to proof of stake, 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.800 what's for Tarlic and crude? I thought they were kind 0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:11.240 of pushing to be less less of a focal point around. How? How? 0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:14.520 How is that happening? Well, this is I mean this 0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:17.800 is something that's common with a lot of crypto projects 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.320 now and you know, some, some have woken up to 0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:23.960 it pretty pretty Um, you know, in a big way, 0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:27.480 like Polka dot's a good example. So the guy who 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.080 the guy who founded polka dot, Gavin Wood, who was 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:32.400 one of the founders of ethereum as well. He has 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.920 basically spent most of his time over the past year 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:40.040 or so trying to decentralize Polka dot more because he has, 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:42.199 you know, he has very much read the way the 0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:45.520 wind is blowing. Um. So yeah, I mean it's it's 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:48.560 a difficult thing because how do you disassociate yourself? How 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:52.040 do you as as say that the potemic figure of 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:55.240 the project, like well, Gavin Wood is still polka dot really, 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.320 and vitarlk certainly is for ethereum. How do you kind 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:00.919 of distance yourself from it and and how do you 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:05.880 argue that you don't have any kind of influence on 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:08.160 on the price of ether or the price of DART 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.680 or whatever it might be? Um. And it's I think 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.080 it's a difficult thing to do. You know, vital it 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:16.800 can argue. He's like, well, you know, I can't. I 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:19.280 can't push code on my own, I can't decide on 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.320 particular updates or anything like that. You know, it has 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:24.879 to be it has to be a decision taken among 0:21:24.920 --> 0:21:28.480 the entire team. Um. But I mean you could still 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.400 argue that Vitali could just, you know, he could take 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:34.480 to twitter and and and move the markets because that, 0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:36.160 you know, people listen to him like that. So it's 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:38.320 it's a difficult thing and there's lots of stuff going 0:21:38.320 --> 0:21:42.360 on behind the scenes. You know, if Um, ethereum. Sort 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:45.639 of most crypto projects, I sort of you know, have 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:50.800 a nonprofit, usually based in Switzerland, that sort of coordinates 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:55.119 their development, quote unquote. So's it's just a testament to 0:21:55.119 --> 0:22:02.159 to the for D chess of yeah, like like, unless 0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:05.520 that was just a coincidence, but he kind of knew right, 0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:10.159 I can't be the figurehead for this and just vanished 0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:15.240 well before, like decade before any of this was really 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:22.200 coming to come into a head. Yeah, it's very true. 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:25.160 I think that is you know that. That's my personal 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:29.080 theory on it, that whoever Satoshi is or was, took 0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:32.840 themselves yeah, realized that that you know, this, this this thing, 0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:37.600 can't work if there is an identifiable person, you know, 0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:39.760 at the heart of it, if you like, which is 0:22:39.760 --> 0:22:42.600 why they you know, they've they've disappeared. I mean you 0:22:42.640 --> 0:22:45.520 could argue that perhaps they're they're dead, but I for 0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:47.679 one thing that, yeah, that that is that is probably 0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:50.760 the most likely explanation. They've kind of removed themselves from 0:22:50.760 --> 0:22:53.960 the stage for this very reason, you know, in order 0:22:54.000 --> 0:22:57.120 that the project, you know, in this case Bitcoin, has 0:22:57.160 --> 0:22:59.040 a life of its own. Can't be can you know, 0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:04.480 decent realizes itself. And Yeah, that the difficulty is, how 0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:07.800 does something like ethereum and all these other crypto projects, 0:23:07.800 --> 0:23:10.960 particularly ones that are proof of steak, how do they 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:13.960 move towards decentralization? It's a it's a very good question. 0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:16.440 There are and you know, we don't have, we don't 0:23:16.480 --> 0:23:18.520 have all the answers to that yet, which and I 0:23:18.520 --> 0:23:20.480 think that's going to be a big theme of the 0:23:20.560 --> 0:23:23.080 coming I say year, I mean I think a big 0:23:23.119 --> 0:23:25.080 theme of the coming few years really is how do 0:23:25.160 --> 0:23:27.959 these how do these crypto projects, decentralize? How do you 0:23:27.960 --> 0:23:32.760 put decentralization into action, because I think that's one of 0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:34.800 the you know, that's one of the only ways that 0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:42.160