1
00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld. The outcome of Super Tuesday

2
00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,720
Speaker 1: was substantially different than what we had predicted just days before.

3
00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,720
Speaker 1: Joe Biden has emerged as the Democratic front runner, with

4
00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,520
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders in second place. Biden's first place went in

5
00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,759
Speaker 1: the South Corona primary catapulted him back into the race.

6
00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 1: With Buddha, Judge, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg all dropping out of

7
00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:30,560
Speaker 1: the race and endorsing Biden, he gained momentum and big

8
00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,920
Speaker 1: wins on Super Tuesday. We'll talk about the Super Tuesday

9
00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,559
Speaker 1: results and the state of the presidential race, and what

10
00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,479
Speaker 1: I think about both Biden and Sanders and who they

11
00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:53,559
Speaker 1: are as people and as candidates. This is certainly a

12
00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:58,000
Speaker 1: different Super Tuesday podcast than I thought it would be

13
00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,000
Speaker 1: a week ago when we first started talking of doing it.

14
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,720
Speaker 1: It's really one of those examples of how fast the

15
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:08,440
Speaker 1: world is changing, compounded by what's happening in China and

16
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,480
Speaker 1: the coronavirus and all the other things that are going

17
00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,959
Speaker 1: on around us that you would not have predicted. Let's

18
00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,760
Speaker 1: go back to Friday, when we all thought we knew

19
00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,119
Speaker 1: it was going to happen. Biden was going to win

20
00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:24,360
Speaker 1: narrowly in South Carolina, with Sanders doing well and with

21
00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 1: several other candidates doing well enough to stay in the race.

22
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,119
Speaker 1: Then we were going to go to Super Tuesday, where

23
00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,840
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders had the momentum and was going to do

24
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,680
Speaker 1: remarkably well, and we were all sort of curious whether

25
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's five hundred million dollars and bought him anything. That

26
00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:44,080
Speaker 1: was Friday Saturday, we suddenly saw the actual results. I'm

27
00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 1: always struck with a lesson that David Broder, the great

28
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,360
Speaker 1: political reporter at the Washington Post, taught me many many

29
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,440
Speaker 1: years ago when he said, you know, everybody will write

30
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,640
Speaker 1: and analyze for a year before Iowa, and none of

31
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,200
Speaker 1: it will matter because in the end, it's what the

32
00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 1: American people do, and you don't know what they're going

33
00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,720
Speaker 1: to do, and then you end up having to analyze

34
00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,520
Speaker 1: them rather than predict them. Well, this was a similar case.

35
00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 1: Biden had said all along that South Carolinas is firewall.

36
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,040
Speaker 1: It turned out, guess what South Calinos is firewall. And

37
00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 1: he had very strong support from the leading Democrat in

38
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,080
Speaker 1: South Carolina, Congressman Klaiburne, who was a very senior in

39
00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,760
Speaker 1: the Democratic leadership in the House. And it all came

40
00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,639
Speaker 1: together for him. He ended up in South Carolina with

41
00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,160
Speaker 1: forty eight point seven percent of the vote, which was

42
00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:40,760
Speaker 1: enough to pick up thirty eight delegates. This complicated Democratic

43
00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 1: Party process that you have proportional delegates if you get

44
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,280
Speaker 1: over fifteen percent, and if you get under fifteen percent,

45
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,960
Speaker 1: you disappear and your potential delegates are redistributed to the

46
00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,880
Speaker 1: people who are over fifteen percent. So Bernie Sanders who

47
00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,520
Speaker 1: came in second, but a distant second. So I think

48
00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,919
Speaker 1: a big surprise to everybody. We thought maybe Biden would

49
00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 1: win by five or six. Well, Biden one by twenty nine.

50
00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,560
Speaker 1: I mean, it's an amazing margin because Bernie Sanders only

51
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,120
Speaker 1: got nineteen point eight percent. Now, because everybody else was

52
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:19,440
Speaker 1: below Sanders, nineteen point eight percent got him fifteen delegates.

53
00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,440
Speaker 1: So Biden was going to come out of South Carolina

54
00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,239
Speaker 1: or thirty eight delegates. Sanders is going to come out

55
00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,800
Speaker 1: with fifteen. But then you suddenly had the Domino's fall.

56
00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,400
Speaker 1: Tom Stier, in a moment of rationality, realized that if

57
00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 1: he'd spent all that money, thinking ultimately was about two

58
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,280
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty million dollars or two hundred and fifty

59
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 1: million dollars and he only got eleven point three percent

60
00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:43,600
Speaker 1: of the vote, and South Carolina was where he had

61
00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,240
Speaker 1: staked everything, and he was a tough businessman and had

62
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,600
Speaker 1: been a realist, because he said, you know, I'm out

63
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,800
Speaker 1: of here and it's no longer makes any sense for

64
00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,160
Speaker 1: me to run. At the same time, Pete Buddha Judge,

65
00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,960
Speaker 1: who had had a brief period of being the media's

66
00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,720
Speaker 1: fair haired cannon, collapsed down to eight point two percent,

67
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,120
Speaker 1: made no penetration in the African American community, simply couldn't

68
00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 1: get them to decide that they would trust him, and

69
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,280
Speaker 1: he dropped out of the race, and then a little

70
00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 1: while later he endorsed Biden. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren got seven

71
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:22,040
Speaker 1: point one percent and clearly has been losing momentum for

72
00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,400
Speaker 1: the last couple of months, but raises a lot of money.

73
00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,799
Speaker 1: She had an extra wind come in when she began

74
00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,919
Speaker 1: beating up Bloomberg and the debates, and people liked her

75
00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,800
Speaker 1: beating up Bloomberg, so she actually raised a ton of money.

76
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,520
Speaker 1: She was helped by Bloomberg's existence because she looked tough

77
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: and smart. So all of a sudden, late Saturday night

78
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,920
Speaker 1: and all day Sunday, people began to rethink how they

79
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:49,120
Speaker 1: thought about the race. Senator Klobachar of Minnesota got almost

80
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 1: no votes in South Carolina and followed Buddha Judge's lead,

81
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 1: but she immediately said I am out of the race.

82
00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,840
Speaker 1: I am endorsing Biden, and by the way, I'll be

83
00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,480
Speaker 1: in Texas with Biden on Sunday at a rally because

84
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,400
Speaker 1: I want people to know how strong I am for Biden.

85
00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,719
Speaker 1: This was a huge boost to Biden in Minnesota, where

86
00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:13,760
Speaker 1: her endorsement really mattered. So, all of a sudden, on Monday,

87
00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,279
Speaker 1: you have Biden, who has no money and seven of

88
00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,200
Speaker 1: the states that were voting he hadn't even been in.

89
00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,400
Speaker 1: He had almost no field operation, but he had a

90
00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,920
Speaker 1: huge wave of earned media. He had people paying attention

91
00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,320
Speaker 1: because all of a sudden, there was dynamic action underway.

92
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:35,440
Speaker 1: Bado O'Rourke came out of total obscurity and endorsed Biden,

93
00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,520
Speaker 1: who announced that O'Rourke, who wants to confiscate guns, would

94
00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,760
Speaker 1: be in charge of the gun part of his administration.

95
00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:47,120
Speaker 1: And so suddenly Biden has momentum, and that meant that

96
00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:51,560
Speaker 1: Super Tuesday was going to be substantially different than people

97
00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,840
Speaker 1: thought it was going to be coming up. We'll take

98
00:05:55,880 --> 00:06:12,000
Speaker 1: a look at the state by state results of Super Tuesday.

99
00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go through the states because i want you

100
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,840
Speaker 1: to see what happened and how it happened. I'm doing

101
00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 1: it alphabetically. So in Alabama, which has a very large

102
00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,680
Speaker 1: black vote, in the Democratic primary, Biden did as he's

103
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 1: done everywhere else. He had sixty three point two percent. Sanders,

104
00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,360
Speaker 1: who by this stage is the only viable candidate other

105
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,039
Speaker 1: than Bloomberg who was still technically in the race. Sanders

106
00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,880
Speaker 1: gets sixteen percent. So the result is Biden picks up

107
00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,839
Speaker 1: forty delegates in Alabama, Sanders picks up seven. And remember

108
00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:50,159
Speaker 1: the delegate count really matters, because that's how you're going

109
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:55,000
Speaker 1: to decide who wins. In July at the National Convention Arkansas,

110
00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,040
Speaker 1: againna stay with a substantial African American population, Biden's at

111
00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:03,039
Speaker 1: forty point five, Sanders is at twenty two point four,

112
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,000
Speaker 1: and for the first time Bloomberg shows up. He's at

113
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,800
Speaker 1: sixteen point seven. Now he has spent a ton of money,

114
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,280
Speaker 1: but notice that puts Bloomberg above the threshold. You have

115
00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 1: to get fifteen percent to get delegates. So low and

116
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:19,640
Speaker 1: behold Biden got sixteen delegates in Arkansas, Sanders got eight

117
00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 1: delegates in Arkansas, and Bloomberg gets four. Remember this a

118
00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:28,000
Speaker 1: guy who's spent about five hundred million dollars. Imagine you

119
00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,680
Speaker 1: were in his headquarters watching these results trickle in, and

120
00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 1: you were one of the staff he'd paid an immense

121
00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,480
Speaker 1: amount of money too. You have a candidate who this

122
00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:41,360
Speaker 1: clearly has bombed. Bloomberg is a case study in the

123
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 1: old advertising rule that great advertising can't sell a terrible product.

124
00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg and the paid ads look terrific. But when Bloomberg

125
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,920
Speaker 1: went to that first debate and the opening round was

126
00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:58,320
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren pounding on him, and he stood there like

127
00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,240
Speaker 1: a deer in the headlights and looked he really was

128
00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,680
Speaker 1: a little Mike, to use one of Donald Trump's many

129
00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,640
Speaker 1: names for him. He just stood there, didn't know how

130
00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,760
Speaker 1: to respond. The Elizabeth Warren, there's a lot of money

131
00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,600
Speaker 1: out of this. She grew because she looked tough and

132
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,800
Speaker 1: direct and like she was in command. And Bloomberg, who's

133
00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,360
Speaker 1: supposed to be this great, tough New York mayor, suddenly

134
00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,960
Speaker 1: looked like at a rotary club meeting. But he sure

135
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,560
Speaker 1: shouldn't want a presidential debate. So that led to the

136
00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 1: collapse of Bloomberg. And again it's proof that earned media

137
00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:36,440
Speaker 1: beats paid media, authenticity beats slickness, and that people actually

138
00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,559
Speaker 1: are pretty smart. Now you get to California, which was

139
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,160
Speaker 1: the golden moment for Sanders, but again, while he's winning

140
00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:47,199
Speaker 1: in California, he's not winning it big enough. And Biden

141
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,160
Speaker 1: is doing better in California than anybody expected. So the

142
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,120
Speaker 1: only two people who are going to get delegates out

143
00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:57,040
Speaker 1: of California are Sanders and Biden. So at this stage

144
00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,719
Speaker 1: and counting the vote, Sanders has got one hundred and

145
00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:03,520
Speaker 1: thirty five delegates in California, Biden has got eighty three.

146
00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,320
Speaker 1: In Colorado, Sanders had a pretty decent evening. He got

147
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,680
Speaker 1: thirty six percent of the vote and thirteen delegates. Biden

148
00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,640
Speaker 1: got twenty three percent of the vote and got five delegates.

149
00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,959
Speaker 1: And once again Bloomberg shows up and his millions got

150
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,120
Speaker 1: him twenty point eight percent and he gets five delegates.

151
00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,559
Speaker 1: But think about what he's spending. I calculated. I think

152
00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:28,199
Speaker 1: he spent twenty five million dollars per delegate. Now, Colorado

153
00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:32,200
Speaker 1: was a bright spot for Sanders in an otherwise pretty

154
00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:36,680
Speaker 1: bleak evening. In Colorado, by the way, Warren finally picks

155
00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,720
Speaker 1: up some delegates. She gets three because she got seventeen

156
00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,240
Speaker 1: percent of the vote. In Maine, you have virtually a tie,

157
00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,720
Speaker 1: and it leads to a tie and delegates. Seven delegates

158
00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 1: for Biden, seven for Sanders, thirty four percent for Biden,

159
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,040
Speaker 1: thirty two point nine percent for Sanders. But that's New England,

160
00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,680
Speaker 1: as Sanders home base. You would have thought he'd have

161
00:09:55,720 --> 00:10:01,800
Speaker 1: carried Maine. Massachusetts again, Biden was in first thirty three

162
00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:07,600
Speaker 1: point four percent, he has thirty two delegates. Sanders comes

163
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,400
Speaker 1: in second with twenty six point eight percent. He gets

164
00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:15,560
Speaker 1: twenty seven delegates, and Warren, in her home state is

165
00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,640
Speaker 1: running third at twenty one point six percent and getting

166
00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,679
Speaker 1: only seventeen delegates. In North Carolina, which again goes back

167
00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,920
Speaker 1: to southern state, large African American population, you get Biden

168
00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 1: at thirty five delegates with forty three percent of the vote,

169
00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 1: and you get Sanders with fifteen delegates at twenty four

170
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 1: percent of the vote. In Oklahoma, again a southern state

171
00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,120
Speaker 1: but not as large an African American population, you get

172
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,960
Speaker 1: Biden picking up eleven delegates with thirty eight point seven

173
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,920
Speaker 1: percent Sanders picks up six delegates with twenty five point

174
00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:51,239
Speaker 1: four percent. But notice Biden is gradually gathering more delegates

175
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,160
Speaker 1: than Sanders, and so even though Sanders is winning the

176
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 1: biggest state, California, these other smaller states are in fact

177
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,440
Speaker 1: giving Biden ultimately a lead, and he's going to come

178
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:04,440
Speaker 1: out of Super Tuesday as the front runner in terms

179
00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,479
Speaker 1: of number of delegates. Tennessee again large African American population.

180
00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,960
Speaker 1: In the Democratic primary, Biden gets forty one point seven percent,

181
00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 1: which gives him twenty one delegates. Sanders gets twenty four

182
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 1: point nine percent, which gets him ten delegates. But again

183
00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:24,160
Speaker 1: you see this gradual building of momentum for Biden. Texas

184
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,680
Speaker 1: was actually pretty close at the time I'm talking. There's

185
00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,440
Speaker 1: still some more delegates to be apportioned in Texas and

186
00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,720
Speaker 1: all of the votes not totally there yet, and in

187
00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,839
Speaker 1: both California and Texas, it may take a good while

188
00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,200
Speaker 1: for the final vote to come. In Utah would big

189
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:43,000
Speaker 1: for Sanders. He picked up all the delegates there Vermont

190
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,160
Speaker 1: one Percanders, but not overwhelmingly. Sanders only got fifty point

191
00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,559
Speaker 1: seven percent. Biden actually picked up five delegates, got twenty

192
00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,280
Speaker 1: two percent, so he's going to have a little Biden

193
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,959
Speaker 1: delegation around the Vermont to sign at the convention. Finally, Virginia,

194
00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,920
Speaker 1: where Biden had a great job. But Biden got exactly

195
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,240
Speaker 1: the right moment Senator Kane, who had been the vice

196
00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,679
Speaker 1: presidential candidate with Hillary and before that had been Democratic

197
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,400
Speaker 1: National Committee Chair, and he got the former governor from mccauliff.

198
00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 1: Both endorsed Biden at the last minute. The Virginians got

199
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,400
Speaker 1: the message. Biden got over fifty percent of the vote,

200
00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,360
Speaker 1: sixty six delegates, and that was a big win for him.

201
00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: So Biden is coming out of Super Tuesday as the

202
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:30,319
Speaker 1: front runner. Bloomberg has dropped out and has endorsed Biden.

203
00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren has dropped out. Tulsa Gabbott has one delegate

204
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 1: and I don't know if he's going to stay it

205
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,840
Speaker 1: or not. So where are we? I always love watching

206
00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 1: TV where you have these analysts who are totally wrong

207
00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 1: last week and the week before, who are now telling

208
00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,000
Speaker 1: you with great certainty exactly what they think. I am

209
00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,600
Speaker 1: telling you that I was wrong and that I'm amazed,

210
00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:52,840
Speaker 1: and I'm still trying to get my head around all this.

211
00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,520
Speaker 1: And this isn't a context where the economy has a

212
00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:59,480
Speaker 1: little bit of stress, and where the coronavirus is a

213
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,760
Speaker 1: serious problem. If we're talking about the election this fall,

214
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:07,719
Speaker 1: the president has to handle the coronavirus well enough that

215
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:11,360
Speaker 1: people think he's competent, that they think he cares, and

216
00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,800
Speaker 1: that they think that they can trust them with their lives.

217
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,560
Speaker 1: Sanders has a huge problem now, and the problem is

218
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,320
Speaker 1: that the field's now down to a two person race.

219
00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:22,600
Speaker 1: When you go out and you look at the actual

220
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,880
Speaker 1: result when people actually voted, Sanders had a very hard

221
00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:31,160
Speaker 1: time getting above thirty five or forty. Now why does

222
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,079
Speaker 1: that matter? Well, it matters because when you get down

223
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,319
Speaker 1: to a two person race, the person who's got the

224
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:40,559
Speaker 1: biggest challenge a Sanders. It's quite clear that if it's

225
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:46,280
Speaker 1: a straight up socialist versus that Obama democrat, Biden's goal

226
00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:50,160
Speaker 1: here is to consolidate, to continue to win, and to

227
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,760
Speaker 1: begin to figure out a way to make Bernie happy

228
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,320
Speaker 1: even if he loses. Sanders, on the other hand, still

229
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,760
Speaker 1: wants to win. He's got to be sitting with his

230
00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:03,400
Speaker 1: key people and saying, what's the attack, what's the contrast,

231
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,320
Speaker 1: how do we set up the argument so that we

232
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:09,920
Speaker 1: can beat Biden? And at the dynamics as it came

233
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,680
Speaker 1: out of Super Tuesday. Biden's going to be the nominee.

234
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:16,720
Speaker 1: Now that doesn't mean that it can't be changed. Remember

235
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 1: it all got changed the last five days, so it

236
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 1: could get changed again. And there are three or four

237
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,640
Speaker 1: different layers of attack on Biden. At the same time,

238
00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,800
Speaker 1: Biden has got to be thinking, do I really go

239
00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 1: out and beat up Burnie, in which case maybe it

240
00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 1: gets so bitter that he will not support me in

241
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 1: the general. Or do I try to find a way

242
00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 1: to be nice to Bernie while he's beating me up

243
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 1: because I'm going to need him in the general. And

244
00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,200
Speaker 1: I think that it's going to be very interesting to

245
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:44,840
Speaker 1: see how they handle it. It's going to be venturing

246
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,280
Speaker 1: to watch the debates. I mean, this next debate may

247
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,560
Speaker 1: be fascinating because all of a sudden, these guys realize

248
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,560
Speaker 1: their entire lifetime of work is on the line. One

249
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,880
Speaker 1: of them is not going to be the Democratic nominee.

250
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,360
Speaker 1: Now They've worked their whole lifetime for this moment and

251
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,760
Speaker 1: they don't want to give it up. So it'll be

252
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,480
Speaker 1: a fascinating debate and one that I recommend you actually

253
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,360
Speaker 1: look at because it's may be as fascinating as when

254
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg appeared for the first time, which I thought was

255
00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,800
Speaker 1: exeally the most interesting debate they've had so far, because

256
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,640
Speaker 1: it was like watching a large train wreck. Let me

257
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:22,920
Speaker 1: go on to the convention. The challenge that Biden has

258
00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 1: if he gets a majority, he is does he try

259
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,720
Speaker 1: to accommodate Sanders? And if so, what does he do?

260
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 1: Does he give Sanders to the platform, in which case

261
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,840
Speaker 1: he knows that the Trump people are going to take

262
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,760
Speaker 1: that platform and make it Biden's platform. Does he give

263
00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 1: Sanders save the keynote address to try to buy him in.

264
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 1: Does he allow Sanders to pick of five or six

265
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:51,680
Speaker 1: key speakers so that they're Sanders supporters If they're Sanders,

266
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 1: do you try to find an avenue of attack so

267
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 1: you can cause chaos in Milwaukee and maybe peel enough

268
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 1: it gets away from Biden that you can win. It's

269
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,800
Speaker 1: clear that Sanders is not going to go to the center.

270
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 1: Sander's whole reason for being is to take the Democratic

271
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 1: Party to the hard left and make it the socialist Party.

272
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,040
Speaker 1: In a sense, he has a more limited range of

273
00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 1: choices than Biden does. In either case, I would suggest

274
00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 1: that we've only seen the beginning of this game. The

275
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,200
Speaker 1: Trump people keep raising money, they keep organizing, they keep

276
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 1: holding rallies. The President keeps focusing on being president in

277
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 1: a way which creates a stature gap. Because you see

278
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,720
Speaker 1: the President going to India and speaking to one hundred

279
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,800
Speaker 1: and twenty thousand people while the Democrats have a debate.

280
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,200
Speaker 1: That's pathetic that you see the president now being presidential

281
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 1: in taking charge and moment of national crisis. All these

282
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:55,479
Speaker 1: things I think increase the likelihood the Trump will get reelected.

283
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:02,400
Speaker 1: This week, Buddha, Judge, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and O'Rourke Hall endorsed

284
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. I discussed the politics of endorsing your political

285
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:11,040
Speaker 1: opponent at newts intercircle dot com. It's a subscription service

286
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,439
Speaker 1: where I offer insights and commentary on the issues that

287
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:20,399
Speaker 1: matter to me. Most joined today at Newts intercircle dot com. Next,

288
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 1: why a brokered convention is no longer likely? At this point,

289
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:44,919
Speaker 1: I would say that there's not going to be a

290
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 1: brokered convention. I really thought for a little while that

291
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 1: if Bloomberg had picked up say one hundred and fifty

292
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,440
Speaker 1: or two hundred delegates and had stayed in the race,

293
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,720
Speaker 1: I thought there might be a brokered convention because I

294
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 1: didn't quite see how anybody would get to be a majority.

295
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,160
Speaker 1: But when you come down to Biden and Sanders being

296
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,639
Speaker 1: the major candidates, it's pretty likely one of them is

297
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 1: going to end up with a majority. And so I

298
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:12,760
Speaker 1: think that while many people love to see a brokered convention,

299
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,800
Speaker 1: would love to see all of the old fashioned maneuvering

300
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 1: and backroom deals and what have you, I don't think

301
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 1: that'll happen. I think there'll be a lot of dealing,

302
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,400
Speaker 1: but that dealing will be about how do you put

303
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 1: the party back together, because clearly, if the Sanders wing

304
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 1: of the party stay at home, the Democrats that have

305
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,639
Speaker 1: no possibility of beating President Trump. So they've got to

306
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 1: find a way to unify. At the same time, they

307
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 1: have to avoid being drug to the left so far

308
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 1: that they can't get back right now unless things change dramatically.

309
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 1: You have three candidates in their seventies, so you have

310
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:55,440
Speaker 1: permanent politician Biden, you have permanent ideologue Sanders, who's really

311
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,719
Speaker 1: not of politicians an ideologue, and you have a businessman,

312
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 1: current politician, and Trump. I think what makes it interesting

313
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 1: is Biden is the real representative of the establishment. Sanders

314
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: represents the left wing populist rebellion and Trump represents the

315
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 1: right wing populace rebellion. And in many ways, whether solutions

316
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: are different, their critique is the same. They are both outsiders.

317
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 1: They're both people who think the current system's got to

318
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 1: be fixed. They would fix it differently, but neither one

319
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,919
Speaker 1: of them thinks the current systems fine. By contrast, Biden

320
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: thinks the current system is just terrific. All of his

321
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: friends are part of it, all of his lobbyists are

322
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,239
Speaker 1: part of it, all of his bureaucrats are part of it,

323
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 1: all of his news media friends are part of it.

324
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:46,640
Speaker 1: Biden is the quintessential insider, faced with a left wing

325
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 1: populist and a right wing populist, and I think that

326
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: makes it kind of fascinating to watch how this evolves

327
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 1: over the next few weeks. If the economy stays strong,

328
00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: and if the president and his team can handle the

329
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: coronavirus so that people feel secured that they're competent, that

330
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 1: they care, and that's getting the job done, my guess

331
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: is that this election will be trump victory of fairly

332
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 1: large proportion, no matter which the two guys wins and

333
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 1: that that's the current dynamic. But again, remember had I

334
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 1: done this podcast last Friday, I would have described a

335
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: different world. So I'm always very cautious. I hope you

336
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: find this useful. I really wanted just to give you

337
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 1: a sweeping overview of how much the world's changed to

338
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party in the last five or six days.

339
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 1: I have to say, as somebody likes to watch this business,

340
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 1: this is about as good as it gets. You can

341
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 1: read more about Super Tuesday on our show page at

342
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 1: Newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced by Ginglish three sixty

343
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 1: and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Debbie Myers and our

344
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 1: producer is Gornsey Slump. The artwork for the show was

345
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at

346
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 1: Gingwich three sixty. Please email me with your comments at

347
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 1: newt at newtsworld dot com. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld,

348
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate

349
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so

350
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. On the next

351
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: episode of Newtsworld, we're going to give you an update

352
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,159
Speaker 1: on where we are with coronavirus. Around the world, and

353
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: I think you'll find it fascinating and very relevant to

354
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 1: what's happening in your life and in your community. I'm

355
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 1: Newt Gingrich. This is a newtsworld