Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for
Speaker 2: everybody today.
Speaker 3: What do we have, Crystal.
Speaker 1: Indeed, we do coming down to the wire here of
Speaker 1: course in terms of the election, So we have a
Speaker 1: lot of news for you there. Trump has this big
Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden rally yesterday and it was really something,
Speaker 1: even the Trump campaign distancing themselves from some of the
Speaker 1: remarks that were made at that rallies. That will bring
Speaker 1: you all of that. We've, of course, also got all
Speaker 1: of the latest polls to try to figure out where
Speaker 1: this race is. Spoiler alert, it's still fifty to fifty
Speaker 1: and very close. We've got some comments from Michelle Obama
Speaker 1: directed towards men in particular, and also a little hot
Speaker 1: mic moment from commal hair where she seems to indicate
Speaker 1: that they have ground to make up there among men
Speaker 1: in the country.
Speaker 4: So we'll bring you that as well.
Speaker 1: Trump winning some Muslim American endorsements in the state of Michigan.
Speaker 1: Absolutely wild scene there given past history. Jeff Bezos deciding
Speaker 1: seemingly to curry favor with Trump by withholding an endorsement
Speaker 1: by his paper, The Washington Post, dooking a lot of
Speaker 1: controversy there. The La Times also deciding not to endorse
Speaker 1: in this race. They're giving a different reason though for
Speaker 1: their rationales. We'll break all of that down for you.
Speaker 1: We have doctor Treza Parsi on to talk about the
Speaker 1: very latest with regard to Iran and Israel. Israel finally
Speaker 1: launching that, you know, what they describe as a retaliatory
Speaker 1: attack towards Iran. There's a lot that's interesting there, so
Speaker 1: we'll get into that as well.
Speaker 2: Absolutely can't wait for that before we do. Thank you
Speaker 2: twelve our premium subscribers. We're coming down to the wire
Speaker 2: eight days until election day. Right now, we are filming
Speaker 2: content today with Logan Phillips, our election partner. He'll be
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Speaker 2: will drop there first on who's gonna win, what are
Speaker 2: electoral maps, and all that will be in addition to
Speaker 2: some great subscriber benefits on election night. So Breakingpoints dot
Speaker 2: Com you can become a subscriber. But as Crystal mentioned,
Speaker 2: Trump was at Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 3: Let's get to it.
Speaker 5: I don't know if you guys know this, but there's
Speaker 5: literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of
Speaker 5: the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico.
Speaker 5: All right, heck, yeah, that's cool. Black guy with a
Speaker 5: thing on his head. What the hell is that a lampshade?
Speaker 5: Look at this guy? Oh my goodness. Wow, I'm just kidding.
Speaker 5: That's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party
Speaker 5: last night. We had fun. We carved watermelons together. It
Speaker 5: was awesome.
Speaker 3: In fact, she is the devil. Whoever screamed that out?
Speaker 3: She is the Antichrist.
Speaker 6: And there's not one moment I've ever been with him
Speaker 6: off camera he's spending his time grousing about people he hates. Ever,
Speaker 6: he's talking about the people and the country he loves
Speaker 6: in his private time. Trust me, you.
Speaker 7: Know something, Trump maniacs. I don't see no stinking Nazison here.
Speaker 7: I don't see no stinking domestic terrorists in here. The
Speaker 7: only thing I see in here are a bunch of
Speaker 7: hard working men and women that are real Americans.
Speaker 8: Brother.
Speaker 2: So that was before Donald Trump even took the stage.
Speaker 2: It was as I described, full maga. I would put
Speaker 2: it as a mini RNC effectively. Lots of controversy this
Speaker 2: morning over Tony Hinchcliffe's joke there about Puerto Rico. In fact,
Speaker 2: the Trump campaign themselves have come out and they've distanced
Speaker 2: them from it. Let me go ahead and read you
Speaker 2: what they said in a statement this morning quote the
Speaker 2: joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or
Speaker 2: the campaign. So I'm sure there will be a lot
Speaker 2: of bedwetting over this on both sides. What I mean
Speaker 2: by that, Crystal is not the liberal freak out over it,
Speaker 2: But on the Republican side there's a big debate over like,
Speaker 2: why should you even apologize over a joke. I like
Speaker 2: Tony and think he did a great job specifically at
Speaker 2: the Tom Brady Roast and previously. The thing is and
Speaker 2: this is what I've been thinking about. The reason why
Speaker 2: is that you shouldn't necessarily just have an edgy campaign
Speaker 2: guy or sorry, edgie comedian at a campaign event, because
Speaker 2: it appears as if that is a reflection of the
Speaker 2: campaign as opposed to at a roast or elsewhere. Now, look,
Speaker 2: in general, if making a joke about Puerto Rico is
Speaker 2: literally enough to push you over the edge, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I think it's frankly kind of.
Speaker 2: Ridiculous, but maybe people vote that way. The point remains
Speaker 2: that there are five hundred thousand people of Puerto Rican descent,
Speaker 2: apparently in the state of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: I saw it's one of the largest.
Speaker 2: Old friend Chuck roacha who runs that Latino focused Nystra
Speaker 2: pack or whatever, and he's already raising money.
Speaker 3: He's like, give me money so I can text this
Speaker 3: to everybody.
Speaker 2: Bad Bunny came out and endorsed Kamala Harris immediately after
Speaker 2: this came out. So look, will it make a big difference.
Speaker 2: I don't know, but I think that the point stands
Speaker 2: that in general, like nine days out for this, the
Speaker 2: Puerto Rico joke, it just doesn't appear to be helpful.
Speaker 2: I guess the countercase to what I would say is
Speaker 2: everyone said that about Springfield, everyone said it about God.
Speaker 2: I covered twenty sixteen Judge Curiel Casier Khan and all this.
Speaker 3: Stuff didn't matter.
Speaker 2: If anything, the controversy he's so racist this time, look
Speaker 2: at this, all of that.
Speaker 3: It didn't work right.
Speaker 2: So I'm not so sure it's going to be like
Speaker 2: totally determinative. The way I saw MSG and the rally
Speaker 2: yesterday I tweeted this was this was basically a mini RNC,
Speaker 2: the most storied of venue in the country.
Speaker 3: There. If their goal was to dominate the conversation, to.
Speaker 2: Have a gigantic media spectacle, I think they succeeded.
Speaker 3: That conversation now centers around them.
Speaker 2: And the only question is is it twenty sixteen when
Speaker 2: that dynamic is to his benefit or is it twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two when this being on full display is going
Speaker 2: to repel voters.
Speaker 3: I genuinely have no answer to that question.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it was like dark RNC. This was like.
Speaker 1: You flag fly, I mean, you got not just to
Speaker 1: fixate on Tony is honestly to miss.
Speaker 3: The overall I agree, but even the rest.
Speaker 4: Of you know, even if you're just letting me in Tony.
Speaker 1: Not only do we you know, called Puerto Rico a
Speaker 1: pile of trash in the ocean. There were insults at Jews,
Speaker 1: at black people. He said they were, you know, carving
Speaker 1: watermelons instead of pumpkins. There were insults at Latino's, you know,
Speaker 1: sexual disgusting, sexual joke, even just with Tony. But even
Speaker 1: if you put that aside, you got this other dude
Speaker 1: calling Kamala literally the devil and the anti Christ. The
Speaker 1: whole thing, the whole positioning of it is this sort
Speaker 1: of like worshipful uh situating as Trump is like gonna
Speaker 1: save us like the Jesus Christ figure against Kamala the
Speaker 1: anti Christ. You had another speaker who referred to her
Speaker 1: effectively as a sex worker, saying she had her you know,
Speaker 1: pimplant handler her. You had Hulk Hogan at another point
Speaker 1: we played part of his comments.
Speaker 4: Another point he.
Speaker 1: Seemed to make a hawk tua joke about Kamala. You
Speaker 1: had Byron Donalds, who is a black congressman, introduced literally
Speaker 1: with Dixie, the facto anthem of the Confederacy. And then
Speaker 1: of course you have Trump doing his normal thing talking
Speaker 1: about that enemy within, talking about using the anli and
Speaker 1: Enemies Act, which was last use for Japanese internment. So,
Speaker 1: you know, the overall question of the rally or why
Speaker 1: it even existed.
Speaker 4: To me, it's less about an electoral.
Speaker 1: Consideration and it's more about creating a sense of inevitability
Speaker 1: and sort of like domination. You know, and we already
Speaker 1: seen and we're going to talk about the Washington Post,
Speaker 1: like Jeff Bezos pulling his endorsement.
Speaker 4: You see some.
Speaker 1: Elites basically hedging their bets, trying to not get on
Speaker 1: Trump's bad side because they're afraid of that quote unquote
Speaker 1: retribution that could come. So having this very you know,
Speaker 1: ominous spectacle in the center of a very diverse, deep
Speaker 1: blue city, Yeah, I think that's more what it's about.
Speaker 4: And it ties into.
Speaker 1: There could be a vibe with it because it seems
Speaker 1: it's like a lot of bravado. It's basically projecting like
Speaker 1: we are already so confident that we've won this thing
Speaker 1: that we can send Tony Hinchcliff out there to insult
Speaker 1: a major critical demographic group in a swing state. Like
Speaker 1: it almost has the vibes of like Hillary Clinton popping
Speaker 1: the champagne on the plane on election Day, which also
Speaker 1: by the way happened on the way to New York.
Speaker 1: But for them it's sort of true because even if
Speaker 1: they lose, they're going to claim that they won. And
Speaker 1: that's the other goal of this rally and the one
Speaker 1: they're doing New Mexico, the one they're doing Virginia, whatever.
Speaker 1: Trump constantly talking about how you know, they've got him
Speaker 1: with ninety three percent odds that he's gonna win, et cetera,
Speaker 1: et cetera, bolstering polymarket and all of these odds makers
Speaker 1: that show a you know, wildly improbable probabilities in favor
Speaker 1: of Trump is to create the sense of inevitability so
Speaker 1: that if they lose, their supporters will all be primed
Speaker 1: to think this could not have been fair, it must
Speaker 1: have been rigged. And so you know that's part of
Speaker 1: the goal of this rally as well. And yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean it was like, I found it very disturbing. I
Speaker 1: found it really ugly. And to your question of like,
Speaker 1: you know, the electoral implications and the calculus that went
Speaker 1: into this, et cetera. We were talking after the Rogan
Speaker 1: interview about how the goal for Commlin these final days
Speaker 1: is like I can be commander in chief the golf
Speaker 1: for Trump is like, I'm not a fascist, I'm a
Speaker 1: bro right hanging out with Joe Rogan. Don't think that
Speaker 1: this rally really served his interests in making him seem
Speaker 1: less scary, less dark it. You know, if anything feeds
Speaker 1: into the closing message of the Harris people of like, listen,
Speaker 1: you should take seriously what John Kelly, Mark Milly, Jim Mattis,
Speaker 1: Mike Pence have to say about who this guy actually is. So,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't buy that it's them electorally. And
Speaker 1: they also have a different coalition than they did in
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. You know, in twenty sixteen, it was all
Speaker 1: about juicing the white working class vote, worked for him
Speaker 1: obviously enough to win an electoral college. This time, they
Speaker 1: are really reliant on eating into Democratic margins with black
Speaker 1: and Latino men.
Speaker 4: So that I think is part of why.
Speaker 1: Whereas in the past in twenty sixteen, you know, if
Speaker 1: there was some racist joke made or whatever, Trump would
Speaker 1: never have apologize for it. I think the fact that
Speaker 1: they're trying to court that different coalition, or really electorally
Speaker 1: dependent on that different coalition, is what leads even the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign to be like that was too far.
Speaker 3: See I don't know.
Speaker 2: I have a totally different read. I didn't see that.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think you're prime to see darkness or
Speaker 2: you're seeing darkness. I'm trying to look at it as
Speaker 2: like basically an entertainment event. When you literally have hul
Speaker 2: Cogan like ripping his shirt off and coming out and
Speaker 2: like we're not nutsies here, and then you had what
Speaker 2: Tony Inchcliff and the comedian. The aspect of it to
Speaker 2: me was just pure camp and entertainment. You could see
Speaker 2: darkness if you want to, and you're taking it seriously.
Speaker 2: But the whole point of Trump is that most people
Speaker 2: don't take him seriously, specifically the people who vote for
Speaker 2: him or are inclined to do that. So for them,
Speaker 2: like they see, if anything, the media bed wedding, they
Speaker 2: love it.
Speaker 3: There's nothing they love more.
Speaker 2: Than to see people call him a fascist or a
Speaker 2: racist or compare it to Nazi msg. That's the best
Speaker 2: thing that could happen for them, because they wear it
Speaker 2: on their sleeves. Then why are they well, okay, they're
Speaker 2: does isself the one comment. But this antichrist stuff, that's like,
Speaker 2: first of all, that's like any Republican evangelical man not
Speaker 2: endorsing it. I've always found it creepy and weird, but
Speaker 2: that's what they do. Well, let's continue with the Hull Cogan,
Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson's speech. Almost all of it is basically a
Speaker 2: round a vibe of our opponent as a joke. There
Speaker 2: is a sense of an ability, there is domination. But
Speaker 2: also what we're missing is there was a lot of
Speaker 2: like laughter and frankly, like exuberance in the room for
Speaker 2: what they're projecting. I saw another electoral thesis, which is
Speaker 2: swing state voter time is over at this point, like
Speaker 2: they've either made their decision or not. This is just
Speaker 2: purely about driving out the base. And with that regard,
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I've spent too.
Speaker 3: Much time now in Republican areas.
Speaker 2: I've talked about this previously, and some GOP people will
Speaker 2: hate this. There is a deep element of Trump's support
Speaker 2: which is on the nose and for lack of a
Speaker 2: better word, crass. Like in twenty twenty, I remember I
Speaker 2: told the story a lot. I was driving through you know,
Speaker 2: rural Nevada, and I just saw this gigantic sign this
Speaker 2: farmer had and it just said Trump, fuck your feelings.
Speaker 2: And I've thought about that sign a lot, because I
Speaker 2: think that is everything. I was recently in Pennsylvania at
Speaker 2: like one of those pumpkin patches or whatever, and there's
Speaker 2: literally like grown men walking around with like f your
Speaker 2: Feelings t shirts and I'm voting for the convicted felon
Speaker 2: bumper stickers with truck nuts. As we'll get to, there
Speaker 2: is a deep element of that, and those people love
Speaker 2: this and you can hate it if you want, but.
Speaker 3: They like it, you know, just it's the whole Maga mema.
Speaker 3: There's a are you offended yet? You know I'm a white.
Speaker 2: Christian male, Like does that piss you off? That is
Speaker 2: a deep part of Trump culturalism, which is aimed directly
Speaker 2: at the beating heart of institution and of Washington. So
Speaker 2: I see this as the apotheosis of maga. The question
Speaker 2: in my mind is it twenty twenty two or is
Speaker 2: it twenty sixteen? In general, for Trump, this stuff doesn't stick.
Speaker 2: It usually doesn't hurt. This whole fantasy about Latino and
Speaker 2: black man. I mean, we've talked about this before. It's
Speaker 2: nice to win a couple more percent, but the vast
Speaker 2: majority of the electric's some seventy four to seventy five
Speaker 2: percent is white. Fifty five percent of those people no
Speaker 2: college degree, median voter in this country, fifty five year
Speaker 2: old white dude. Yeah, but yeah, I mean I know
Speaker 2: they're you know, their culturally will be signs most with them.
Speaker 1: Offended by this whole situation is a lot of those
Speaker 1: white college educated okay, vote.
Speaker 3: That's already right.
Speaker 4: I mean, they're they're not.
Speaker 1: I mean that's where listen, I think you're right that
Speaker 1: this is the kind of beating heart apotheosis of Maga.
Speaker 1: And that's what I find so disturbing. I think the deal,
Speaker 1: the implicit deal that Trump has with his support is basically,
Speaker 1: you give me unending loyalty, and listen, if you watch
Speaker 1: this and you didn't think that this was like, you know,
Speaker 1: worship of a cult hero. I don't know what you
Speaker 1: were looking at. You give me unending loyalty, and I
Speaker 1: will give you permission to indulge the ugliest parts of yourself.
Speaker 1: That's what was on display here. I mean, Tucker came
Speaker 1: close to saying it. He said something to the effect of,
Speaker 1: you know what we love about Trump is he's given
Speaker 1: us permission to tell the truth, which is of course
Speaker 1: preposterous when you look at a guy and Donald Trump
Speaker 1: who probably lies more than like literally any other political
Speaker 1: figure we've ever seen. But what he means by that
Speaker 1: is now, like we can tell the racist joke about
Speaker 1: black people and watermelons, or you know, call Puerto Rico
Speaker 1: a pile of garbage.
Speaker 4: We can label our political.
Speaker 1: Opponents as the enemy within and threatened to turn the
Speaker 1: military on them, or label them literally the anti Christ
Speaker 1: or the devil, or as one MAGA supporting evangelic pastor
Speaker 1: has been calling her, like the Jezebel spirit.
Speaker 4: We can do all of those things.
Speaker 1: We don't have to pretend that we have this like
Speaker 1: you know, veneer of polite society, and it's not about
Speaker 1: it's really not about policy, because we've seen him be
Speaker 1: all over the map. We've seen this policy platform this
Speaker 1: time around totally different than what it was in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 4: At this same event.
Speaker 1: You had people who were, you know, spouting policy positions
Speaker 1: that were totally at odds.
Speaker 4: With each other.
Speaker 1: Rudy Giuliani calling all Palestinians terrorists and you know, cheering
Speaker 1: for war hawkishness. And then Tulsi Gabber goes up there
Speaker 1: and is like, oh, Trump is the anti war candidate.
Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be coherent because it's not about
Speaker 1: that policy.
Speaker 4: So I don't know what.
Speaker 1: The electoral impact will be, you know, I genuinely I
Speaker 1: don't think that this served the end that you and
Speaker 1: I both were saying that Trump had. His goal in
Speaker 1: the final days was humanized himself and to make it
Speaker 1: feel preposterous that he was, you know, the sort of
Speaker 1: like dictatorial, authoritarian, fascist figure. I don't think that this
Speaker 1: helps him in that regard. You know, is it a
Speaker 1: game change with thought?
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 1: But to me, it's just more it's less about the
Speaker 1: electoral impact and more just about what this movement actually
Speaker 1: promises to deliver, you know. I mean a core promise
Speaker 1: that he's making that he talked a lot about here,
Speaker 1: and actually we can play a little bit of the
Speaker 1: Trump mashup. I don't know if it includes this part
Speaker 1: or not, but something he's repeatedly promised is to use
Speaker 1: the Alien Enemies Act of what is it, like seventeen
Speaker 1: ninety eight or whatever, which was last used to justify
Speaker 1: internment of Japanese Americans during World War Two.
Speaker 4: Like, that's a promise that he makes.
Speaker 1: He talks about the enemy within he you know, this
Speaker 1: is like a core part of what's being cheered here.
Speaker 4: I think it's ugly.
Speaker 1: I think it's disturbing, And as I said before, I
Speaker 1: think the core promise is like you can where your
Speaker 1: fuck you're feeling sure, you can say, like you know,
Speaker 1: all of the ugliest things that you would normally say
Speaker 1: in private, it can now be out in the open.
Speaker 4: And that's what this is.
Speaker 2: A solibrations Again, Tho, where you're seeing it is disturbing,
Speaker 2: and I'm like, I'm just looking at at analytically. What
Speaker 2: it comes from is people feel truly like the Washington
Speaker 2: establishment media institutions, et cetera, not only have left them behind,
Speaker 2: and I'm not even talking about economically, it's almost almost
Speaker 2: purely culturally. And their rage has now been bubbling for
Speaker 2: almost twenty five years. So this is a logical and
Speaker 2: frankly like very predictable and political expression.
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot to that.
Speaker 1: I also think that that rage can be directed towards,
Speaker 1: you know, the corporate CEOs and billionaires and elite class
Speaker 1: that have created vast inequalities in this country, or it
Speaker 1: can be directed at, you know, a group of vulnerable
Speaker 1: migrants to be scapegoated, which yes, I think is.
Speaker 2: Really this is a very common talking point. Again, the
Speaker 2: fact is it's that reality. Yeah, but Democrats have tried it,
Speaker 2: and the truth is that people don't like when millions
Speaker 2: of illegal immigrants come to their country. That's not scapegoating,
Speaker 2: it's a pure fact. It's no country on earth would
Speaker 2: accept the level of illegal migration that we've had, and
Speaker 2: they rightfully blame a lot of elites for washing that
Speaker 2: away and just saying, oh, it's actually not a problem.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if your community gets totally flooded or whatever.
Speaker 3: We've had this debate a million times is.
Speaker 1: To pretend like the whole problem in this country is immigrants.
Speaker 2: Is proposable, a big thing and it's ugly, is illegal immigration,
Speaker 2: and now most people believe that. In fact, if you
Speaker 2: look at you know, you're talking about alieness edition. If
Speaker 2: there was an Axios poll or whatever and it was like,
Speaker 2: how many Americans support putting illegal immigrants in camps and
Speaker 2: deporting them, it was forty seven.
Speaker 3: Percent of the vast majority of independence.
Speaker 1: So I don't think it is our electoral point. I'm
Speaker 1: really not just getting your electoral point. Although I do
Speaker 1: think that the pulling on immigration is a lot more
Speaker 1: complex than you say, because if you ask them also,
Speaker 1: should there be a pathway to citizenship for people who
Speaker 1: are here who are undocumented, they also say yes, and
Speaker 1: they definitely don't support like let's totally close our borders
Speaker 1: and have net zero migration. So putting the electoral point aside,
Speaker 1: though it's a moral point, I think it's wrong.
Speaker 4: I think it's wrong. I think it's ugly.
Speaker 1: I think it's an inaccurate picture of where the problems
Speaker 1: in this country actually stem from. I think it's cheap
Speaker 1: to take shots at people who are, you know, largely powerless,
Speaker 1: who are oftentimes escaping, you know, systems of persecution that
Speaker 1: our country basically, you know, set up. Many of the
Speaker 1: migrants who are coming here are fleeing from countries that
Speaker 1: we have incredibly onerous sanctions on. So yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it's it's cheap, it's ugly, and it's wrong, you know,
Speaker 1: the electoral point, like, we'll see how it works out
Speaker 1: next week. We'll have an answer to that very quickly.
Speaker 1: But you know, my fear is that it actually is
Speaker 1: too effective, that it does work, that there is a
Speaker 1: large appetite for it.
Speaker 4: But I'm also not convinced of that yet.
Speaker 2: I mean fair enough, I guess I would just say
Speaker 2: you can, you're what free to morally object, But it's
Speaker 2: a democracy. People get to vote how they want, and
Speaker 2: I don't generally believe in like tisting it people and
Speaker 2: saying oh, it's actually not a problem, like we should
Speaker 2: hear what it is. Like, Look, do I live my
Speaker 2: life with your feelings T shirt and trucknuts?
Speaker 8: Now?
Speaker 2: I don't, And honestly I don't have a lot of
Speaker 2: like I don't really get it period, but I can
Speaker 2: anthropologically look at them and be like, Okay, well there's
Speaker 2: something going on here, and for me, like full maga.
Speaker 2: Basically of what that rally was is that is a
Speaker 2: political and cultural expression of, frankly, a very ignored force
Speaker 2: and of one which people feel is not accurately reflected
Speaker 2: in their higher institutions of culture media, and at a
Speaker 2: certain point, like you do have to if it wins,
Speaker 2: people should ask a lot of questions about how did
Speaker 2: that happen?
Speaker 3: What exactly led to this?
Speaker 2: If you want to make that corporate argument, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, frankly, look I don't even.
Speaker 3: Disagree, but the truth is is that people don't care.
Speaker 2: I hate to say it, but every time that they've
Speaker 2: tried the so called deliverism and this argument in the
Speaker 2: especially in the face of mass illegal migration, it's rejected
Speaker 2: almost entirely.
Speaker 3: To the extent that Democrats have won any ground.
Speaker 2: It's with rich, college educated whites who are culturally look
Speaker 2: at the truck nuts and the fuck your Feelings t
Speaker 2: shirt and are repulsed by their fellows the elder people.
Speaker 1: While thing to say, though, when Republicans, when was the
Speaker 1: last time they even won the popular vote?
Speaker 3: Uh, well, two thousand and four.
Speaker 1: So I mean, you act like this is the vast
Speaker 1: majority of the country.
Speaker 4: Number one, I mean Democratic Democrats, even in the electoral
Speaker 4: Number one.
Speaker 1: I mean, but that's pretending like the only thing anyone
Speaker 1: cares about is immigration. Number one, Democrats have embraced a
Speaker 1: very hawkas, but to pretend like, you know, the anti
Speaker 1: immigrant positions one that isn't held by elite politicians is
Speaker 1: at this point preposters. It's my view that doesn't exist
Speaker 1: among elite politicians. You don't hear it from Democrats at
Speaker 1: this point whatsoever. But number two, like there's this posturing,
Speaker 1: like this is this overwhelming majority that's being ignored, and
Speaker 1: it's like, no, actually, it's it is a minority, as
Speaker 1: evidence by you know, every election since Donald Trump has
Speaker 1: been on the scene, where he has never won the
Speaker 1: popular vote, and where Republicans lost in twenty eighteen, loss
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, et cetera.
Speaker 4: And you know, so it.
Speaker 1: It also overstates how popular this mode of politics has
Speaker 1: been proven to be. So, Like I said, listen, I'm
Speaker 1: really not making an electoral point because I'm humble of
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going to happen next week. You know,
Speaker 1: maybe people love calling Puerto Rico an island of trash
Speaker 1: and love calling for immigrants to be rounded up and
Speaker 1: put in camps, and love you know, saying Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: is the Antichrist, or at least just you know, are
Speaker 1: happy to ignore it for whatever reason that could certainly
Speaker 1: be the case. I'm making the point that, you know,
Speaker 1: I immigrants are not the problem in this country. They
Speaker 1: are not the reason why buying large housing prices are high.
Speaker 4: They are not the.
Speaker 1: Reason why it's so hard to afford healthcare. They are
Speaker 1: not the reason why education costs have skyroad rocketed so dramatically.
Speaker 1: They are you know, yes, there is an issue with
Speaker 1: we need to get the border and control. I personally
Speaker 1: think we actually be better off as a country if
Speaker 1: we let in far more legal immigrants than we have.
Speaker 1: But you know, I just think that this direction for
Speaker 1: the country is ugly bad and wrong.
Speaker 4: Okay, my byeline.
Speaker 2: Again, I think that's fair. I've made various counter arguments
Speaker 2: as to why. But in general, again, you want to
Speaker 2: listen to people and you don't want to try and
Speaker 2: override their concerns.
Speaker 3: And if that I fundamentally.
Speaker 2: Believe, and I actually tweeted the other day, I don't
Speaker 2: think it's the economy stupid.
Speaker 3: I think it's immigration stupid.
Speaker 2: I think that if Trump wins this election, specifically if
Speaker 2: he also wins a popular vote, which I think there's
Speaker 2: a twenty seven percent chance according to Nate Silver, it
Speaker 2: will be the clearest mandate and or electoral signal in
Speaker 2: modern history, especially because a lot of the retconning of
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3: If we go back and look if there was.
Speaker 2: A study done by the CSPI, I want to say
Speaker 2: we talked about it in twenty twenty, where the vast
Speaker 2: majority of people who voted for Trump did so because
Speaker 2: of immigration. And I've just come around to the fact
Speaker 2: that immigration is the singular defining issue of the Republican Party.
Speaker 2: I think abortion is now the defining issue. Either of
Speaker 2: those two reconcilable questions will be determined on election day
Speaker 2: as to what it is, and democratically it does need
Speaker 2: to be solved or at least found like some sort
Speaker 2: of status quo like we did previously in eras, because otherwise,
Speaker 2: you know, if you care about taxes or whatever, the
Speaker 2: vast majority of people these days are not voting on that,
Speaker 2: they can claim what they want. I've seen too much
Speaker 2: swing state data on immigration for Republicans. It is literally
Speaker 2: the number one thing that they're running at Reublicans.
Speaker 4: No, it's not.
Speaker 1: No, the Republicans have reduced their ads spending on immigration,
Speaker 1: but they're they're predominantly spending money on trans panic and yeah,
Speaker 1: but they are like taxes economic space.
Speaker 2: I disagree with that because the trans ad is all
Speaker 2: about illegal immigration. It's specifically when you watch it, they're
Speaker 2: like talking about transgender surgeries for illegal migrants from the
Speaker 2: clip of twenty and nineteen. I mean, look, you've said
Speaker 2: it before too. A lot of that is just coding
Speaker 2: Comma as too liberal. Is that immigration trans whatever. I mean,
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, it's not economic. I
Speaker 2: know that one on Democrats they're trying with taxes, which
Speaker 2: talked about with Logan last week, but a huge part
Speaker 2: of it is just abortion too. So you know, what
Speaker 2: does the mandate say if Kamala wins. I would say,
Speaker 2: if Kamala wins, that the mandate is actually that this
Speaker 2: maga you know, fear feeling stuff does not land in
Speaker 2: the way that I think it does, and people should
Speaker 2: be very humble about that too, which they won't. I
Speaker 2: think You're right, they'll say that the election was stolen,
Speaker 2: but vice versa. You know, if that if that wins,
Speaker 2: people should really take a step and be like, Okay,
Speaker 2: what's going on here?
Speaker 3: You know, why did this happen?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Maybe, although it's also like, you know, the election is
Speaker 1: probably going to be decided by like a tines se
Speaker 1: liver of votes.
Speaker 3: Maybe yeah, So you.
Speaker 4: Know there will be many things last to everything.
Speaker 2: Should I say that ninety percent of people agree with
Speaker 2: me or with you?
Speaker 3: Of course not.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just saying, like I think there's a tendency
Speaker 1: sometimes in an election that's very narrow to read into
Speaker 1: that like, oh, the public overwhelmingly thinks this. So the
Speaker 1: public overwhelmingly thinks that when it's really like, you know,
Speaker 1: twenty thousand people in Wisconsin whatever, you know. So I
Speaker 1: don't think that our deep divide in the country. I
Speaker 1: don't think we'll learn anything that more, much more profoundly
Speaker 1: different about the deep divides that exist in the country,
Speaker 1: depending on whether this is a narrow win by Trump
Speaker 1: or a narrow win by Kamla.
Speaker 4: All right, should we hear let's.
Speaker 3: Talk about plate Trump. I was just gonna skip it right.
Speaker 4: So to me, it's the same shit. There's that.
Speaker 3: Here's the thing.
Speaker 2: To me, Trump is a secondary character almost for this
Speaker 2: because Trump himself and what he says does not matter.
Speaker 3: As we see at the rally.
Speaker 2: You can be anti war, and you can say the Palasais,
Speaker 2: what did he say? Are raised at age two years
Speaker 2: old to slaughter people. The contradiction is the point. The
Speaker 2: contradiction is the fact that the cultural saying fuck you
Speaker 2: to the elites.
Speaker 3: That's it.
Speaker 1: That's basically to the elite, okay, fine deliverable immigrants.
Speaker 2: To elite tastemakers who think that it's okay to have
Speaker 2: twelve million people illegally let in your country, or who
Speaker 2: don't think it's that big of a deal or whatever
Speaker 2: it's about, you know, even culturally to the extent I mean,
Speaker 2: I've talked about this before. You can't turn a TV
Speaker 2: on without seeing like some transgender couple or whatever in
Speaker 2: a TV show shoehorned and got for no reason.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's annoying. It is annoying.
Speaker 2: I mean, right, because it's obviously a social agenda, of
Speaker 2: which is held by a small.
Speaker 1: Social agenda trying to be imposed as theory of people.
Speaker 4: Well, no, you don't hate transparent you think that they do,
Speaker 4: so I don't.
Speaker 2: Think that people hate trans people. I don't hate trans people.
Speaker 2: I think people should be able to do what they want.
Speaker 2: I don't like gender ideology and specifically the way that
Speaker 2: it's message towards children or I mean, we haven't covered
Speaker 2: this yet, but there was a landmark study about puberty
Speaker 2: blockers that somehow got held up at the NIH because
Speaker 2: it happened to prove that it didn't work so well
Speaker 2: for the people.
Speaker 7: Who do that.
Speaker 3: Those are legitimate issues. And that's my point is that,
Speaker 3: but you.
Speaker 4: Didn't start with that.
Speaker 1: You started with seeing a transgender couple in a commercial.
Speaker 3: Which is what, which is a signal of what, which
Speaker 3: is what.
Speaker 1: Signal of Hey, it's cool to be who you are,
Speaker 1: no big deal, which is something that most Americans agree with.
Speaker 1: Which is why the like, you know, transgender panic in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two didn't pan out because people like, all right, whatever,
Speaker 1: does they care more about other stuff? Because you know,
Speaker 1: it's the only Kelly out there being like, oh, high
Speaker 1: school athletes, transgender high school athletes is my number one issue.
Speaker 1: Like that's an insane fringe view, but it actually is. Hell,
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think you do hold that view,
Speaker 1: but that is like a kind of a core bul
Speaker 1: Like she gets a lot of praise for that in
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, and you know, so that's become a
Speaker 1: center of energy among this group as well.
Speaker 2: But the trans thing was just a metaphor for the
Speaker 2: idea that social liberalism dominates at the very high commanding
Speaker 2: heights of the American culture, from Disney to Wicked or whatever,
Speaker 2: and that people are annoyed by it to the point where, yeah,
Speaker 2: they like the maga apotheosis because they want those people
Speaker 2: to cry tears and to feel bad.
Speaker 3: I sympathize. I understand that feeling. Do I think it's
Speaker 3: all that productive. No, not necessarily, but I mean it's politics, right.
Speaker 2: We have to learn a little bit from what Vox Popular,
Speaker 2: you know, is kind of trying to send a signal
Speaker 2: on and that's what I would hope that people take
Speaker 2: away if Trump does win the election. Unfortunately, I don't
Speaker 2: think that that's necessarily the case. But that's kind of
Speaker 2: why I say Trump is not what he says doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: He's a figure. Is is like a like a lightning
Speaker 2: rod or whatever for whatever cause that you know, pisses
Speaker 2: people off in the way that you want to. I
Speaker 2: think immigration is the bigger part of that, but there's
Speaker 2: it's a big tent, you know, for grievance. That that
Speaker 2: explains why Rudy and Tulsey and RFK and all these
Speaker 2: people can be pro Trump all at the same time,
Speaker 2: and the internal contradictions are the point. You know, I
Speaker 2: increasingly believe that about MAGA. Let's move on to the
Speaker 2: next part here as skipping Donald Trump and talking here
Speaker 2: about the popular vote and also about some Trump efforts
Speaker 2: to run up the score and possibly set the stage
Speaker 2: for a stop to steal two point zero. Let's start
Speaker 2: with Harry Enton about that possibility of Donald Trump winning
Speaker 2: the popular vote.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 9: Trump may finally get his great white whale. Harris versus
Speaker 9: Trump national margin. You mentioned that New York Times poll
Speaker 9: a tie that's actually right in the middle of the spectrum.
Speaker 9: When we're talking about recent polling data, you don't have
Speaker 9: to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally.
Speaker 9: He was up by two points in the CNBC poll,
Speaker 9: up by three in the Wall Street Journal poll. Very
Speaker 9: close races within the margin of error. But then the
Speaker 9: same thing on the other side, right, you have Harris
Speaker 9: up by three points according to IPSOS. The say twenty
Speaker 9: four you gov poll it's a bunch of academics also
Speaker 9: has Harris up by three. But the bottom line is
Speaker 9: with the popular vote, which we really haven't focused upon,
Speaker 9: a very very tight race, John. Fact is, Donald Trump
Speaker 9: is very much in a position he could win the
Speaker 9: popular vote, which of course is something he would.
Speaker 2: Absolutely love to do and would be something very different
Speaker 2: than we have seen compared to last time in the polling,
Speaker 2: compared to last time.
Speaker 9: Exactly right. So I went back through the time machine,
Speaker 9: all right, I went back through the time machine to
Speaker 9: see where were the past two races. At this point
Speaker 9: in the campaign, Look, Harrison, the average poll right now
Speaker 9: is up by one, well within the margin. Ever, you
Speaker 9: go back four years ago, Joe Biden was well ahead
Speaker 9: of Donald Trump in the national popular vote polls. He
Speaker 9: was up by nine even Hillary Clinton was up by
Speaker 9: six points. So now Donald Trump is in a position
Speaker 9: he really hasn't been before at this point in the
Speaker 9: campaign where he could truly compete. And we can truly
Speaker 9: say that the popular vote at this point is way
Speaker 9: too close to.
Speaker 3: Cole okay, so very clearly it's possibility.
Speaker 8: I guess.
Speaker 2: My one quibble though, is that he was using polls
Speaker 2: and not the actual results from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: And did you notice that right right? Because the actual
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen popular vote was two point one for Hillary.
Speaker 3: Let's see what it was for I think it was
Speaker 3: four and a half. I was, yeah, it was quite high.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's in fifty one point three to forty six
Speaker 2: point eight. And I guess the reason there was a
Speaker 2: massive historical turnout in all states, so we actually won
Speaker 2: more of the popular vote because it had a lot
Speaker 2: more Blue voters in places like New York, California and
Speaker 2: elsewhere that came out.
Speaker 3: But that, yeah, in addition, so it is an interesting point.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, one of the things that's fascinating here
Speaker 1: is that between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, Republicans actually
Speaker 1: opened up more of an electoral college advantage. And now,
Speaker 1: based on the twenty twenty two results and based on
Speaker 1: the polling you know, as it exists currently going into
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, it looks like they may actually have
Speaker 1: less of an electoral college edge than they did even
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, which shows you these coalitions aren't exactly
Speaker 1: static that they move around. I mean, do I think
Speaker 1: Trump's going to win the popular vote?
Speaker 4: Probably not.
Speaker 1: In both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty he got around
Speaker 1: like forty seven percent of the vote. I think it
Speaker 1: would be a stretch to see him getting an actual
Speaker 1: over majority.
Speaker 4: But you can't rule anything out.
Speaker 1: And I will say, if Trump wins the popular vote
Speaker 1: and loses the electoral.
Speaker 3: College, there's a three percent chance that will be that will.
Speaker 1: Be the end of the electoral college. It will be
Speaker 1: over for the electoral college. And I just want to say,
Speaker 1: like back when Hillary lost because she won the popular vote,
Speaker 1: and lost the electoral College. I wasn't one of those
Speaker 1: people around there bitching. Yes, I went the electoral College
Speaker 1: to go away, But those were the rules of the game,
Speaker 1: and she understood them that she played. And so even
Speaker 1: if you know Trump wins the bopular and loses the
Speaker 1: electoral College, you don't get to cry about the rules
Speaker 1: of the game as they are set up and established today.
Speaker 1: But you know, he's clearly trying to project a lot
Speaker 1: of confidence. Like I said, I think the New York
Speaker 1: City rally was an attempt to create the sense of inevitability.
Speaker 1: He also we can put this up on the screen
Speaker 1: A five. They announced they're going to do a campaign
Speaker 1: in Salem, Virginia. Now, Pole just came out a high
Speaker 1: quality poll from Washington Post showing you know, Virginia looks
Speaker 1: like it's not a swing state. It looks the same
Speaker 1: as it did last time. I think it was six
Speaker 1: okay was the margin.
Speaker 3: So you know Virginia better than I do. What is
Speaker 3: what's the vibe in Salem? Is it like southern VIRGINI I.
Speaker 1: Think Salem is southwestern Virginia. I'm pretty sure so this
Speaker 1: is I can look it up, but I'm pretty sure.
Speaker 1: This is like in the mountains in southwestern Virginia.
Speaker 3: I thought about it going and then I saw it
Speaker 3: was a three hour drive time. I'm like, that's not
Speaker 3: gonna happen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, let me see. Yeah, yeah, yeah it is.
Speaker 1: It's almost like to the Virginia line over close to ROANOK.
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is like this is rural Appalachian Virginia.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he has a lot of supporters there. They'll
Speaker 1: be very excited to see him. Is he going to
Speaker 1: win the state of Virginia this I would be willing
Speaker 1: to say absolutely not. He's also doing a rally in
Speaker 1: New Mexico. Is he gonna win New Mexico? Also, there
Speaker 1: is zero indication he's going to win the state of
Speaker 1: New Mexico. You even have a fake Ramaswami in the.
Speaker 3: New York Yeah. New York is a swing state.
Speaker 4: It's said the rally like do people just like being
Speaker 4: lied to?
Speaker 1: I don't know, because that is also preposterous and there
Speaker 1: is no no data to back it up whatsoever. But
Speaker 1: the plan here is to create the sense of like, oh,
Speaker 1: we're going on the offense, even in places like New
Speaker 1: Mexico and Virginia and New York. Can you imagine we're
Speaker 1: going on. I saw people tweeting like, Oh, We're gonna
Speaker 1: win New.
Speaker 4: Jersey, Like, no, you are not.
Speaker 1: But the idea is to create the sense that it's
Speaker 1: a done deal, the election's over. Trump's gonna win, even
Speaker 1: though every you know analysis out there says it's a
Speaker 1: coin flip. And then if he does lose, you created
Speaker 1: the sense that it was over and there was no
Speaker 1: way Democrats could win. And so then your your fans
Speaker 1: are going to be primed and ready to believe that
Speaker 1: if you don't win, this was stolen, and they'll be
Speaker 1: ready for whatever, you know, conspiracy theory you want to
Speaker 1: put out there as to why this was unfair, unjust
Speaker 1: and you were robbed, et cetera, et cetera. And so
Speaker 1: I genuinely think that is part of the strategy of
Speaker 1: going to places like Virginia, New Mexico, New.
Speaker 3: York, et cetera.
Speaker 2: I think that's definitely part of it. I was wondering
Speaker 2: too with Salem. I was like, Okay, well, what's the
Speaker 2: big brain case for it? Is like, like you said,
Speaker 2: Appalachia trying to get some North Carolina folks maybe to
Speaker 2: drive over.
Speaker 3: Could be you know. I was like, OK, I could
Speaker 3: see that, but you could just go to Yeah, you could.
Speaker 4: Just go to not that to North Carolina.
Speaker 3: Actually, I mean I don't know.
Speaker 2: You know, I read stories about people at these Trump rallies.
Speaker 2: You drive for fifteen hours or whatever, so you never know.
Speaker 2: In terms of New Mexico, it's funny. Last time around,
Speaker 2: I remember tracking this Trump was they were like, we're
Speaker 2: gonna win New Mexico.
Speaker 3: New Mexico's in play.
Speaker 2: Jason Miller, who currently works with the campaign, he kept
Speaker 2: saying that over and over again. And the action result
Speaker 2: is he lost it by I think a bigger margin
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty than he did in six years. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't think that New Mexico is gonna happen. I mean,
Speaker 2: I guess the case is maybe some people drive over
Speaker 2: from Arizona from to New Mexico, but in general, right.
Speaker 3: The domination is the point.
Speaker 2: Now the risk is that, hey, man, you probably should
Speaker 2: go to Wisconsin. Because I may have incorrectly been decided,
Speaker 2: but I saw someone say he hadn't been to Wisconsin
Speaker 2: or in that area in like three weeks, which is
Speaker 2: a long time. I mean, that was a huge talking
Speaker 2: point after twenty sixteen. So there could be a lot
Speaker 2: of overconfidence in the Trump campaign right now.
Speaker 3: We see it's not there.
Speaker 2: You go, it's only been a month. You know, it's
Speaker 2: been a month since you're in Wisconsin. Now, maybe it's
Speaker 2: just a sign of hey, we're gonna win Wisconsin.
Speaker 3: We're not worried about it. There's some signs in that direction.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we were just talking with Logan
Speaker 2: and he thinks was and is like the smallest or
Speaker 2: the best state now before him in terms of but he.
Speaker 4: Still has them losing in the average.
Speaker 1: So it's I mean, no one could think like, even
Speaker 1: if you feel like Wisconsin is moving towards Trump, you
Speaker 1: certainly can't think like all.
Speaker 4: This is done and you know it's a wrap now.
Speaker 1: I do see he's going to hold a rally in
Speaker 1: Milwaukee a couple days before the election.
Speaker 4: Okay, so that's on their radar. I listen.
Speaker 1: I mean a lot of these campaign decisions on the
Speaker 1: Trump side too, are just about like his ego, Yes, right,
Speaker 1: like he wants to pretend like New Mexico's in play.
Speaker 4: He probably maybe even believes it.
Speaker 1: Right at the rally last night, he said he thinks
Speaker 1: they're going to win Colorado. You are not gonna win Colorado.
Speaker 1: But you know, he may have convinced himself of that,
Speaker 1: and so part of it is just like playing to
Speaker 1: his ego as well. And then I also think there's
Speaker 1: a sense that since politics are so national, does it
Speaker 1: really matter if you do the rally in Sale in
Speaker 1: Virginia versus in North Carolina.
Speaker 3: That was my other case was that it's just like
Speaker 3: it's all a show, and.
Speaker 1: It's a national show, and the particular location, like whether
Speaker 1: it's in ped Slovania or in Virginia or whatever, it
Speaker 1: doesn't ultimately matter all that.
Speaker 2: U That's what I was thinking, because I was, you
Speaker 2: know again the Madison Square Garden thing. At first thought
Speaker 2: it was dumb. I'm like, why are you doing it?
Speaker 2: And then I was like, oh, well, even if you
Speaker 2: live in like bumfuck wherever, like you know what Madison
Speaker 2: Square Garden is. So you see a picture of Madison
Speaker 2: Square Garden and Trump in a packed arena where they
Speaker 2: literally had to turn people away, and you know what,
Speaker 2: it is same in terms of I mean, actually I
Speaker 2: remember in Iowa and in New Hampshire last time around,
Speaker 2: Trump did not spend that much time or on the
Speaker 2: ground in twenty sixteen, Ted Cruz and the Marco made
Speaker 2: a lot of talking points about that, but what ended
Speaker 2: up being correct. The correct strategy was just going Fox
Speaker 2: News or go wherever, hold a rally, say whatever you want,
Speaker 2: people into it it, watch it, vote for you. I mean,
Speaker 2: obviously was he got second I think in Iowa. But
Speaker 2: that was a big media strategy where the ground game
Speaker 2: was shook up entirely by the nationalization my politics. And
Speaker 2: if you look at this time around, I mean Ron
Speaker 2: DeSantis and Nicki Haley and these people, they spend a
Speaker 2: ton of time on the ground. Vivek didn't go to
Speaker 2: all ninety nine counties in ilank. Yeah, it didn't matter, right,
Speaker 2: how much you get five percent of the vote something
Speaker 2: like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And Chick was really the first person kind of
Speaker 1: understand that back in twenty six it was, you know,
Speaker 1: because he didn't run like a traditional campaign.
Speaker 4: Really it was very like more like Rocky too.
Speaker 3: You think it's ramshackle now.
Speaker 2: Back then it was a wild It was the Trump
Speaker 2: helicopter and like five guys, one of them we used
Speaker 2: to work for the UFC.
Speaker 5: That was it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, it was enough to win the
Speaker 1: popular road to get the job done and you know
Speaker 1: the rules of the game as they existed, so so
Speaker 1: that that may be part of it too.
Speaker 3: Is like the.
Speaker 1: More traditional campaign heads on his team are like, Hey,
Speaker 1: he wants to do this thing for his ego and
Speaker 1: it doesn't really hurt, so.
Speaker 4: Why not go to Virginia.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think I am yeah, I think
Speaker 2: that that's the correct strategy. Probably the nationalization matters most.
Speaker 2: And yeah, like you said, for stop the steal two
Speaker 2: point zero, if that's what you want to set up,
Speaker 2: you're like, well, you know, the inevitive ability. I mean,
Speaker 2: I just feel like at the point this cake is baked,
Speaker 2: like they're going to say it no matter what, like
Speaker 2: whether they're going to Salem or whether they're going away,
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. I mean, the level of like delusion
Speaker 2: up here, specifically for a lot of these boomers like you,
Speaker 2: there's not a word you could say to these folks
Speaker 2: about why the election was not stolen. So he's got
Speaker 2: it in the bag.
Speaker 7: And I was.
Speaker 2: You know, if you go on Twitter, the amount of
Speaker 2: election just straight up bullshit that you will consume on
Speaker 2: a daily basis is unbelievable to me. I think Trump
Speaker 2: is doing quite well on the race. I think he's
Speaker 2: got a more better than not shot of winning. Do
Speaker 2: I think he's a ninety three percent chance of winning? No,
Speaker 2: who even comes up with this stuff? Yeah, that's where
Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, I'm I was thinking about this. Republicans
Speaker 2: seem booied psychologically, are buoyed by this sense of inevitability.
Speaker 2: Democrats are neurotic, and they're convinced that they're going to lose. Now,
Speaker 2: every big thing I've ever accomplished in my life, even
Speaker 2: if I ever had a good chance of doing it,
Speaker 2: I always acted like I was gonna lose, just to
Speaker 2: make sure you do everything to make sure that it
Speaker 2: doesn't happen. So there are just screens of overconfidence to
Speaker 2: me right now and bravado and ego.
Speaker 3: It's just I don't know, karma is real, all right,
Speaker 3: Like it'll check you very quickly.
Speaker 4: It's a coin flip election.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what it is, a coin flip election, and
Speaker 1: you know, no one can say which direction the polls
Speaker 1: might be wrong, Like we don't know. Maybe they are
Speaker 1: underestimating trial. That's that's very possible, but you don't know that.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean part of it is just they
Speaker 1: like to pretend. I mean, it's part of like the
Speaker 1: ethos of like owning the Libs. Part of owning the
Speaker 1: Libs is like we're destroying you and we're dominating. You're
Speaker 1: gonna we're going to New Mexico, We're going to we're
Speaker 1: going to New York where you know, we're eating your lunch.
Speaker 4: You're going to be destroyed.
Speaker 1: You're gonna be as one speaker at MSG said, you're
Speaker 1: going to be slaughtered on election day. It's part you know,
Speaker 1: that's part of what like fuels this movement is the
Speaker 1: sense of like, you know, we're destroying you and owning
Speaker 1: the Libs, et cetera. And then from the Trump perspective,
Speaker 1: this and the you know, Trump influencers. I do think
Speaker 1: it's more concerted strategy to lay the groundwork for. But
Speaker 1: if we do lose, we're going to claim we want
Speaker 1: it anyway, and you are all going to believe it,
Speaker 1: and they are all going to believe it. And I
Speaker 1: think there will be much that we're going to talk
Speaker 1: more tomorrow about some of the specific, like organized efforts
Speaker 1: that they put in place to lay the groundwork for
Speaker 1: that challenge.
Speaker 4: If they were you know, to narrowly lose or to
Speaker 4: lose at all the election. Next week. We're going to
Speaker 4: get more into the specifics of that.
Speaker 1: But you know, when you see like Elon talking about
Speaker 1: potential voter fraud and Marjorie Taylor Green claiming that they're
Speaker 1: switching votes, and then this organized effort of all these
Speaker 1: lawsuits across a bunch of different states that they've already
Speaker 1: put into place, you had some dude in North Carolina
Speaker 1: suggesting they should just preemptively hand the Electoral College votes
Speaker 1: over to Trump.
Speaker 3: Makes you see that, Yeah, I did, and he's actually
Speaker 3: a member of Congress.
Speaker 1: That's just incredible, unbelievable. So I mean there, Yeah, they
Speaker 1: are laying the groundwork and it will not be hard.
Speaker 1: It will be much easier this time around to convince
Speaker 1: all of their people that the election was stolen than
Speaker 1: it was last time around.
Speaker 4: And that's part of what's going on here.
Speaker 3: There you go.
Speaker 1: All right, So, speaking of that coin flip election, we
Speaker 1: have Logan Phillips from Race to the White House joining
Speaker 1: us to talk about exactly where things stand. The latest
Speaker 1: polls break all of that down for us, and also
Speaker 1: to answer this question of whether or not pollsters are
Speaker 1: hurting because you see hurting like with the d I
Speaker 1: feel like I always it sounds like hurting, I.
Speaker 3: Mean her ding. They probably are hurting.
Speaker 1: They're probably also hurting emotionally. But anyway, because they're all
Speaker 1: getting like the exact same results, So is that likely
Speaker 1: or are they kind of trying to fudge the numbers
Speaker 1: a little bit so that they're not too much out
Speaker 1: over their skis in the event of either a Trump
Speaker 1: or a Kamla victory.
Speaker 4: Let's get right to it all right, guys.
Speaker 1: Election Day, as you probably know, is literally a week
Speaker 1: from tomorrow, which I'm having trouble rapping my head around.
Speaker 1: But joining us sound to breakdown where the polls stand
Speaker 1: as of today is our friend Logan Phillips of Race
Speaker 1: to the White House and offering exclusive content here at
Speaker 1: Bring Points.
Speaker 4: Great to see Logan, Yeah, of course.
Speaker 1: So we've got a little clip here from Steve Kernaki
Speaker 1: over at MSNBC talking about how the poles have trended
Speaker 1: somewhat towards Trump.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 8: One thing we have noticed in the last couple of days.
Speaker 8: This is not all of the polls that are out
Speaker 8: there now, but we have seen a number four in
Speaker 8: the last four days that have shown very small but
Speaker 8: in the context of this close race, potentially meaningful movement
Speaker 8: in Trump's direction. I don't want to overstate it, but
Speaker 8: at the same time, it's hard to ignore these four.
Speaker 8: The CNBC poll came out the other day as Trump
Speaker 8: ahead by two, the Wall Street Journal poll trump ahead
Speaker 8: by three. These are national numbers Sienna and the New
Speaker 8: York Times A tide race, CNN a tide race. The
Speaker 8: significance here is broader movement again we're seeing in Trump's direction.
Speaker 8: To put this in some context, here is our current
Speaker 8: national polling average. Let me call that up on the
Speaker 8: screen for you. Right here, Harris continues to lead nationally.
Speaker 8: I want to stretch that, but we've been tracking this
Speaker 8: every week on the air. Here a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 8: this number was at three for Kamala Harris, her leading
Speaker 8: the poll average now down to one point because of
Speaker 8: some of the numbers that I just showed you. Of course,
Speaker 8: the swing states, the battleground states, are going to be
Speaker 8: what decide this election. And look how close those are.
Speaker 3: We see one point two nationally.
Speaker 8: Just about all these swing states are even tighter than
Speaker 8: that one of.
Speaker 1: Those poles that Karnaki references, there is the New York Times,
Speaker 1: Theano Pole, which of course people pay a lot of
Speaker 1: attention to.
Speaker 4: You can put this up on the screen.
Speaker 1: This is I believe, their final final national poll before
Speaker 1: election day, and it does show the two of these
Speaker 1: candidates tied for eight percent. So what are you seeing
Speaker 1: in terms of the trends as we head in here
Speaker 1: to the final stretch.
Speaker 10: Yeah, the trends are that the race went from Razor
Speaker 10: tight with Harris having a slight edge to Razor tight
Speaker 10: with basically being even maybe the slightest vetch of Harris
Speaker 10: in the key swing states. So the movement is real,
Speaker 10: fortunately for Harris, and it's unusual'll say this for a
Speaker 10: Democrats perspective. The election is decided by the Electoral College
Speaker 10: versus the national vote, and while Trump is gaining in
Speaker 10: swing states, the gain is a little more subtle, except
Speaker 10: maybe in Wisconsin where it seems to be getting a
Speaker 10: little faster.
Speaker 2: Got it right, So if we stick with them and
Speaker 2: we continue down some of the data points that we have,
Speaker 2: can we put the next one up on the screen.
Speaker 2: We saw here, you know, multiple show things showing tied.
Speaker 2: Now as you just mentioned, Can you lay out why
Speaker 2: maybe the popular vote will not be as a deciding
Speaker 2: factor this time around? So what I mean by that
Speaker 2: is usually the rule of thumb with Republicans is that
Speaker 2: if the Democrats are losing the popular vote or even
Speaker 2: polling in the popular vote within one or even two points,
Speaker 2: and that usually means that there's an electoral college bias
Speaker 2: to the Republicans. Something we've been trying to prime the
Speaker 2: audience for is this may be changing because of Republican
Speaker 2: shifts in deep blue states places like California and in
Speaker 2: New York. Should we read into it that way and
Speaker 2: contextualize it in the swing states?
Speaker 10: Like you said, yeah, I do think that Harris probably
Speaker 10: needs to win the popular vote to win, and on
Speaker 10: average she's leading the polls by like one and a
Speaker 10: half to two points. Okay, nationally speaking, but the change
Speaker 10: and how much of an edge you need can change dramatically,
Speaker 10: And honestly, there have been cycles even in this millennium
Speaker 10: twenty four twenty twelve where Democrats lost the popular vote
Speaker 10: they easily could have won the election, especially two thousand
Speaker 10: and four, So we actually see cycle to cycle. This
Speaker 10: changes all the time because individual states change all the time.
Speaker 10: If Texas becomes a proper straight down the middle state,
Speaker 10: Democrats could easily lose the popular vote and run the
Speaker 10: electoral college, for example, which is not where we're now we.
Speaker 2: Are yet, right, So this could be more of a precursor,
Speaker 2: possibly of things to come, This trend very possibly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what are some of the demographic realignments that have
Speaker 1: led to that shift in terms of the popular vote
Speaker 1: electoral college vote dynamic.
Speaker 10: I think that Democrats are doing a bit better in
Speaker 10: the suburbs now they c hereinly did in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 10: and that is making helping them a little bit in
Speaker 10: states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Honestly, every single one of
Speaker 10: the swing states, right is also kind of what's putting
Speaker 10: Texas in play too. Plus, Democrats appear to be doing
Speaker 10: a little better at the white vote relative to how
Speaker 10: they were doing in sixteen and perhaps twenty at least
Speaker 10: relative to where the popular vote is, so that means
Speaker 10: that they're, you know, the alignment of voters might be
Speaker 10: a little closer to just where the swing states happen
Speaker 10: to be. It doesn't mean that that inherently would give
Speaker 10: you an edge. It is just the absolute ran and
Speaker 10: which states happened to be the most competitive American politics
Speaker 10: at this point in time.
Speaker 1: Is this a continuation of some of the trends that
Speaker 1: we saw in the mid terms because Republicans, you know,
Speaker 1: that red wave didn't materialize, but there were a few
Speaker 1: states where they were kind of did right, Florida and
Speaker 1: New York in particular, California somewhat to a lesser extent.
Speaker 1: What are some of the peculiar dynamics in those states
Speaker 1: which are not swing states that have led Republicans to
Speaker 1: either you know, gain ground in New York, gain even
Speaker 1: more ground in the state of Florida.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think some of it has to do with
Speaker 10: focal politics. Kathy Hocals in particularly popular in New York.
Speaker 10: Cromo had was popular until we had all his ethical
Speaker 10: issues that force you out of office. And it's you know,
Speaker 10: when you have a stay of one party rule for
Speaker 10: long enough time, it can lead to some inefficiencies in
Speaker 10: government and people can over time turn against that. So
Speaker 10: that might be a problem there as well. You know,
Speaker 10: crime has been a problem in New York. It's gone down,
Speaker 10: but you know, still important to people and New York
Speaker 10: probably due to federal reasons hasn't always had the resources
Speaker 10: and needs. As you have a lot of immigrants and
Speaker 10: asylum sequens've come to the state who don't yet have
Speaker 10: this status that they may or may not get depending
Speaker 10: on the individual. It's able to get a job, they
Speaker 10: have to wait like a year for it. So now
Speaker 10: the state has to provide for them because of the
Speaker 10: slow federal policy, and so that's making people more That's.
Speaker 2: Been a big long island staten island thing. Let's put
Speaker 2: the next one up here from CBS. So this was
Speaker 2: one of the few that had it just fifty forty nine,
Speaker 2: not just tied. But if you take a look at
Speaker 2: that battleground figure, we have it fifty fifty. I mean,
Speaker 2: so when we're talking here, logan like even also in
Speaker 2: your own models, and you're looking at those battlegrounds says,
Speaker 2: how do you suss out like the reality of a
Speaker 2: point three advantage or a point four or something like that,
Speaker 2: because it just seems so within the margin of error
Speaker 2: that it's difficult to you determine even with an average
Speaker 2: when we're talking about edges that are that small.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you're sure to have the edge, you know. We
Speaker 10: can look at hundreds to pass a long absolutely, yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 10: there's a correlation. Even THO doesn't feel like there's anything.
Speaker 10: But the fundamental nature of this stuff is the assumptions
Speaker 10: that we make about the electorate. They're always going to
Speaker 10: be wrong in some way. We just don't know what
Speaker 10: parts if they're going to be wrong, right, So it's
Speaker 10: just like you a little more room to be wrong
Speaker 10: in one direction. If you have a point four lead,
Speaker 10: then you're down point four.
Speaker 1: Rightly, right, let's put a five up on the screen.
Speaker 1: This was a poll that I'm sure the Harris people
Speaker 1: were very happy to see. This was ABC IPSOS poll
Speaker 1: of likely voters. It has Harris up at fifty one,
Speaker 1: Trump at forty seven. Greg Sargent opines here that it's
Speaker 1: better for her than other national polls finding a tie
Speaker 1: because she runs better among Latinos and blacks including men,
Speaker 1: then those other poles, while holding on to the same
Speaker 1: percentage of the white vote as Joe Biden.
Speaker 4: Per Ron Brownstein, This is the key. What do you
Speaker 4: make of this pole? And how real do you think
Speaker 4: that these shifts.
Speaker 1: That we've seen in other poles among black men, among
Speaker 1: Hispanic men in particular, Given that you do have some
Speaker 1: poles like this that really don't find any movement at all.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, if SOS has generally been more favorable
Speaker 10: for Harris this Cyclewar Times has generally been more conservative
Speaker 10: favorable for Trump, so that might be what's that play here.
Speaker 10: I think, ultimately the odds are that Trump has gained
Speaker 10: in these polls. But in twenty twenty two, the polls
Speaker 10: were off by like a point and a half. Maybe
Speaker 10: the movement at the end was real. It just might
Speaker 10: have been Democrats outright leading and then it went to
Speaker 10: the slight Republican lead at the end. But there's no
Speaker 10: way to know this for sure because you only have
Speaker 10: one election. So maybe the polls two weeks ago and
Speaker 10: the movement was completely made up, which is hard to tell.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I mean, I know this can be frustrating,
Speaker 2: and let's continue to the next one. Nate Silver, he
Speaker 2: had a very good breakdown of actually each of the
Speaker 2: individual swing states. I wonder if we could put it,
Speaker 2: We'll put that tear sheet please up on the screen.
Speaker 2: But I was looking at his Wisconsin model, and if
Speaker 2: we check Wisconsin, what he has in front of there
Speaker 2: is basically like a fifty three percent chance that Kamala
Speaker 2: would win THEO would win Wisconsin. But you were just
Speaker 2: saying that there has been some overall movement. You actually
Speaker 2: see there exactly what you said, our one point sixth
Speaker 2: advantage and a change from the last month. Is there
Speaker 2: anything from you can look at from his overall analysis
Speaker 2: and also maybe pair it with the early vote of
Speaker 2: some signs where things can differently go.
Speaker 10: Yeah, there's been consistent Poule movement in Wisconsin. We thought
Speaker 10: it might be true for Michigan, but we got a
Speaker 10: bunch of high quality polls showing Hair still ahead by
Speaker 10: it modestly in Michigan. So I think Wisconsin's is one
Speaker 10: of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that I'm most worried about
Speaker 10: for Harris, that it's most likely to flip.
Speaker 1: Interesting, So, for if you're the Harris campaign, what looks
Speaker 1: like your best path to two seventy And conversely, if
Speaker 1: you're the Trump campaign, what is your most likely path
Speaker 1: to two seventy?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I still think for Harris it's the conventional Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3: All plus Omaha.
Speaker 10: Yes, but North Carolina is so close right now that
Speaker 10: it easily could be the one that saves Harris, Like.
Speaker 1: If she loses Wisconsin but wins North she could win
Speaker 1: North Carolina and that would be enough for.
Speaker 10: And if she wins North Carolina and Nevada, which you know,
Speaker 10: I still think she's modestly favorite Nevado.
Speaker 3: So you're still very bullish on Nevada. So let's talk
Speaker 3: about that, much less so than my most last Okay,
Speaker 3: much last.
Speaker 2: Let's talk so because for everything I've seen right now,
Speaker 2: I guess the bowl case for Trump is you've got
Speaker 2: this like major Republican turnout. According to Joel Ralston, a
Speaker 2: huge percentage of the votes have actually already been cast to.
Speaker 3: The overall electorate.
Speaker 2: The bear case for Trump is that there's a big
Speaker 2: what is it other of people who are unidentified in party,
Speaker 2: and that that other demographic is disproportionately younger people who
Speaker 2: are most likely to vote Democrats. So the other category
Speaker 2: being so large could be skewing it. But you're still
Speaker 2: less bullish, So tell us why.
Speaker 10: Yeah, because the early vote has not been good for them. Now, yeah,
Speaker 10: some of that's not counting a lot of the mail
Speaker 10: in ballot that's going to be coming in, So maybe
Speaker 10: it's not as bad for them as we think Okay,
Speaker 10: the polling has been sort of good for Harris generally
Speaker 10: underrate STEM so that doesn't assily Kerry cycles in cycle
Speaker 10: in Nevada. In Nevada specifically it has up to this
Speaker 10: point anyway. Yeah, Yeah, I mean I think it's I
Speaker 10: think the case for Trump stuff again and stronger. That
Speaker 10: being said, I mean, if you look at Maryland, for example,
Speaker 10: I saw this great graphic from split Ticket this morning
Speaker 10: the twenty twenty two election. You know, the breakout of
Speaker 10: like how Republicans did an early voting relative to twenty
Speaker 10: twenty suggested all sorts of good signs for them. No
Speaker 10: one really thought that Dan Cox was going to be
Speaker 10: Wes Moore in that.
Speaker 4: Race, but that's the governor's race.
Speaker 10: Governor. Yeah, thanks for saying that, So I and he
Speaker 10: ended up winning by like the same margin. I think
Speaker 10: that Joe Biden won Maryland and most exactly right, because
Speaker 10: it's just the makeup of election day was also really different.
Speaker 10: So this stuff is clused. But the makeup of the
Speaker 10: electric can change. How independent and swing voters vote can
Speaker 10: change as well.
Speaker 2: Okay, we were reading a little bit yesterday, Crystal and
Speaker 2: I at different states and how they vote, so I
Speaker 2: had no idea. For example, like ninety percent of Arizona
Speaker 2: votes or votes early. So maybe if you could just
Speaker 2: tell the audience like which states were the early vote,
Speaker 2: maybe matters more. And then where also, like which states
Speaker 2: on the same day could be determinative, Like with the Maryland.
Speaker 10: Like you were saying, yeah, in Maryland, I mean saying
Speaker 10: that Maryland, I would say Nevada and Arizona, those are
Speaker 10: states you're going to see a lot more early voting.
Speaker 10: It's more important, you know, especially because Nevada has a
Speaker 10: lot of clonary workers who are show to get election
Speaker 10: day off so they try to get in early, right yeah.
Speaker 10: And Georgia has a strong early vote. But even there, right,
Speaker 10: like this is what it was the last few cycles,
Speaker 10: you might change. Democrats got the big bank of votes
Speaker 10: early on. Republicans came in droves at the end. So
Speaker 10: I think for all of these states it's still going
Speaker 10: to be a factor, but it's more that you know
Speaker 10: each state by state.
Speaker 3: It's just hard to say.
Speaker 10: Right now because we don't have a voting pattern long
Speaker 10: enough post twenty twenty, when more people got ento early voting,
Speaker 10: right yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: And the other thing is difficult is every state has
Speaker 1: different sequencing in terms of like is it just mail in,
Speaker 1: is it just early in person, which tends to be
Speaker 1: more Republican, And so I think that's part of what's
Speaker 1: accounting for. Like, if you look at those Blue Wall states,
Speaker 1: you go, oh, that looks pretty good for Democrats. Then
Speaker 1: you look at Novoda and you're like, oh, now it's
Speaker 1: terrible for Democrats. Part of it seems to be that
Speaker 1: different states have different sequencing, different percentages of the vote
Speaker 1: that are expected to come in early, et cetera.
Speaker 4: So can be very difficult.
Speaker 1: Like you said, especially post twenty twenty, we really don't
Speaker 1: have a model for this election, which is post COVID
Speaker 1: but not during COVID, and what the makeup.
Speaker 5: Is likely to look like.
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I would say the general thing is right.
Speaker 10: Over the last two weeks served in positive signs for
Speaker 10: Republicans an incredibly competitive phrase, but much like perhaps a
Speaker 10: lot of pundents were overreading the good signs for Kamala,
Speaker 10: the same thing is happening now. And I think it's
Speaker 10: in part due to past experience of headaches twenty twenty
Speaker 10: and twenty sixteen. If you don't love to be wrong,
Speaker 10: but I don't like to be wrong in the same
Speaker 10: way twice or three times in a row.
Speaker 1: Well, that's a perfect segue and to the next conversation
Speaker 1: we want to have about what has been kind of
Speaker 1: like an online debate among nerds and data geeks, et cetera.
Speaker 4: Over whether or not the pollsters are quote unquote hurting.
Speaker 1: This is going to be posted later in the week
Speaker 1: for everybody to take a look at as we head
Speaker 1: into election day.
Speaker 4: It's going to be posted today for premium subscribers.
Speaker 1: If you want to become a premium subscriber and here
Speaker 1: logan answer this incredibly important and interesting question, go.
Speaker 4: To Breakingpoints dot com. So get that right away. All right,
Speaker 4: let's pug back up this graphic.