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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent coverage.

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Speaker 3: That is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for

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Speaker 2: everybody today.

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Speaker 3: What do we have, Crystal.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do coming down to the wire here of

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Speaker 1: course in terms of the election, So we have a

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Speaker 1: lot of news for you there. Trump has this big

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Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden rally yesterday and it was really something,

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Speaker 1: even the Trump campaign distancing themselves from some of the

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Speaker 1: remarks that were made at that rallies. That will bring

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Speaker 1: you all of that. We've, of course, also got all

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Speaker 1: of the latest polls to try to figure out where

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Speaker 1: this race is. Spoiler alert, it's still fifty to fifty

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Speaker 1: and very close. We've got some comments from Michelle Obama

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Speaker 1: directed towards men in particular, and also a little hot

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Speaker 1: mic moment from commal hair where she seems to indicate

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Speaker 1: that they have ground to make up there among men

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Speaker 1: in the country.

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Speaker 4: So we'll bring you that as well.

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Speaker 1: Trump winning some Muslim American endorsements in the state of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely wild scene there given past history. Jeff Bezos deciding

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Speaker 1: seemingly to curry favor with Trump by withholding an endorsement

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Speaker 1: by his paper, The Washington Post, dooking a lot of

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Speaker 1: controversy there. The La Times also deciding not to endorse

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Speaker 1: in this race. They're giving a different reason though for

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Speaker 1: their rationales. We'll break all of that down for you.

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Speaker 1: We have doctor Treza Parsi on to talk about the

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Speaker 1: very latest with regard to Iran and Israel. Israel finally

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Speaker 1: launching that, you know, what they describe as a retaliatory

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Speaker 1: attack towards Iran. There's a lot that's interesting there, so

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Speaker 1: we'll get into that as well.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely can't wait for that before we do. Thank you

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Speaker 2: twelve our premium subscribers. We're coming down to the wire

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Speaker 2: eight days until election day. Right now, we are filming

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Speaker 2: content today with Logan Phillips, our election partner. He'll be

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Speaker 2: here on election night as well. Go ahead and sign

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Speaker 2: up Breakingpoints dot Com, so you get exclusive access both

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Speaker 2: to some of that premium election and content. Our predictions

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Speaker 2: will drop there first on who's gonna win, what are

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Speaker 2: electoral maps, and all that will be in addition to

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Speaker 2: some great subscriber benefits on election night. So Breakingpoints dot

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Speaker 2: Com you can become a subscriber. But as Crystal mentioned,

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Speaker 2: Trump was at Madison Square Garden.

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Speaker 3: Let's get to it.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if you guys know this, but there's

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Speaker 5: literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of

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Speaker 5: the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico.

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Speaker 5: All right, heck, yeah, that's cool. Black guy with a

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Speaker 5: thing on his head. What the hell is that a lampshade?

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Speaker 5: Look at this guy? Oh my goodness. Wow, I'm just kidding.

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Speaker 5: That's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party

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Speaker 5: last night. We had fun. We carved watermelons together. It

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Speaker 5: was awesome.

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Speaker 3: In fact, she is the devil. Whoever screamed that out?

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Speaker 3: She is the Antichrist.

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Speaker 6: And there's not one moment I've ever been with him

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Speaker 6: off camera he's spending his time grousing about people he hates. Ever,

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Speaker 6: he's talking about the people and the country he loves

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Speaker 6: in his private time. Trust me, you.

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Speaker 7: Know something, Trump maniacs. I don't see no stinking Nazison here.

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Speaker 7: I don't see no stinking domestic terrorists in here. The

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Speaker 7: only thing I see in here are a bunch of

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Speaker 7: hard working men and women that are real Americans.

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Speaker 8: Brother.

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Speaker 2: So that was before Donald Trump even took the stage.

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Speaker 2: It was as I described, full maga. I would put

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Speaker 2: it as a mini RNC effectively. Lots of controversy this

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Speaker 2: morning over Tony Hinchcliffe's joke there about Puerto Rico. In fact,

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Speaker 2: the Trump campaign themselves have come out and they've distanced

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Speaker 2: them from it. Let me go ahead and read you

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Speaker 2: what they said in a statement this morning quote the

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Speaker 2: joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or

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Speaker 2: the campaign. So I'm sure there will be a lot

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Speaker 2: of bedwetting over this on both sides. What I mean

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Speaker 2: by that, Crystal is not the liberal freak out over it,

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Speaker 2: But on the Republican side there's a big debate over like,

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Speaker 2: why should you even apologize over a joke. I like

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Speaker 2: Tony and think he did a great job specifically at

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Speaker 2: the Tom Brady Roast and previously. The thing is and

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Speaker 2: this is what I've been thinking about. The reason why

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Speaker 2: is that you shouldn't necessarily just have an edgy campaign

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Speaker 2: guy or sorry, edgie comedian at a campaign event, because

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Speaker 2: it appears as if that is a reflection of the

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Speaker 2: campaign as opposed to at a roast or elsewhere. Now, look,

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Speaker 2: in general, if making a joke about Puerto Rico is

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Speaker 2: literally enough to push you over the edge, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think it's frankly kind of.

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Speaker 2: Ridiculous, but maybe people vote that way. The point remains

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Speaker 2: that there are five hundred thousand people of Puerto Rican descent,

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Speaker 2: apparently in the state of Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 4: I saw it's one of the largest.

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Speaker 2: Old friend Chuck roacha who runs that Latino focused Nystra

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Speaker 2: pack or whatever, and he's already raising money.

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Speaker 3: He's like, give me money so I can text this

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Speaker 3: to everybody.

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Speaker 2: Bad Bunny came out and endorsed Kamala Harris immediately after

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Speaker 2: this came out. So look, will it make a big difference.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, but I think that the point stands

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Speaker 2: that in general, like nine days out for this, the

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Speaker 2: Puerto Rico joke, it just doesn't appear to be helpful.

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Speaker 2: I guess the countercase to what I would say is

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Speaker 2: everyone said that about Springfield, everyone said it about God.

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Speaker 2: I covered twenty sixteen Judge Curiel Casier Khan and all this.

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Speaker 3: Stuff didn't matter.

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Speaker 2: If anything, the controversy he's so racist this time, look

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Speaker 2: at this, all of that.

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Speaker 3: It didn't work right.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not so sure it's going to be like

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Speaker 2: totally determinative. The way I saw MSG and the rally

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Speaker 2: yesterday I tweeted this was this was basically a mini RNC,

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Speaker 2: the most storied of venue in the country.

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Speaker 3: There. If their goal was to dominate the conversation, to.

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Speaker 2: Have a gigantic media spectacle, I think they succeeded.

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Speaker 3: That conversation now centers around them.

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Speaker 2: And the only question is is it twenty sixteen when

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Speaker 2: that dynamic is to his benefit or is it twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two when this being on full display is going

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Speaker 2: to repel voters.

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Speaker 3: I genuinely have no answer to that question.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it was like dark RNC. This was like.

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Speaker 1: You flag fly, I mean, you got not just to

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Speaker 1: fixate on Tony is honestly to miss.

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Speaker 3: The overall I agree, but even the rest.

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Speaker 4: Of you know, even if you're just letting me in Tony.

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Speaker 1: Not only do we you know, called Puerto Rico a

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Speaker 1: pile of trash in the ocean. There were insults at Jews,

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Speaker 1: at black people. He said they were, you know, carving

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Speaker 1: watermelons instead of pumpkins. There were insults at Latino's, you know,

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Speaker 1: sexual disgusting, sexual joke, even just with Tony. But even

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Speaker 1: if you put that aside, you got this other dude

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Speaker 1: calling Kamala literally the devil and the anti Christ. The

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Speaker 1: whole thing, the whole positioning of it is this sort

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Speaker 1: of like worshipful uh situating as Trump is like gonna

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Speaker 1: save us like the Jesus Christ figure against Kamala the

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Speaker 1: anti Christ. You had another speaker who referred to her

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Speaker 1: effectively as a sex worker, saying she had her you know,

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Speaker 1: pimplant handler her. You had Hulk Hogan at another point

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Speaker 1: we played part of his comments.

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Speaker 4: Another point he.

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Speaker 1: Seemed to make a hawk tua joke about Kamala. You

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Speaker 1: had Byron Donalds, who is a black congressman, introduced literally

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Speaker 1: with Dixie, the facto anthem of the Confederacy. And then

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Speaker 1: of course you have Trump doing his normal thing talking

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Speaker 1: about that enemy within, talking about using the anli and

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Speaker 1: Enemies Act, which was last use for Japanese internment. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, the overall question of the rally or why

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Speaker 1: it even existed.

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Speaker 4: To me, it's less about an electoral.

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Speaker 1: Consideration and it's more about creating a sense of inevitability

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Speaker 1: and sort of like domination. You know, and we already

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Speaker 1: seen and we're going to talk about the Washington Post,

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Speaker 1: like Jeff Bezos pulling his endorsement.

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Speaker 4: You see some.

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Speaker 1: Elites basically hedging their bets, trying to not get on

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Speaker 1: Trump's bad side because they're afraid of that quote unquote

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Speaker 1: retribution that could come. So having this very you know,

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Speaker 1: ominous spectacle in the center of a very diverse, deep

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Speaker 1: blue city, Yeah, I think that's more what it's about.

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Speaker 4: And it ties into.

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Speaker 1: There could be a vibe with it because it seems

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Speaker 1: it's like a lot of bravado. It's basically projecting like

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Speaker 1: we are already so confident that we've won this thing

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Speaker 1: that we can send Tony Hinchcliff out there to insult

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Speaker 1: a major critical demographic group in a swing state. Like

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Speaker 1: it almost has the vibes of like Hillary Clinton popping

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Speaker 1: the champagne on the plane on election Day, which also

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Speaker 1: by the way happened on the way to New York.

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Speaker 1: But for them it's sort of true because even if

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Speaker 1: they lose, they're going to claim that they won. And

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Speaker 1: that's the other goal of this rally and the one

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Speaker 1: they're doing New Mexico, the one they're doing Virginia, whatever.

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Speaker 1: Trump constantly talking about how you know, they've got him

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Speaker 1: with ninety three percent odds that he's gonna win, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, bolstering polymarket and all of these odds makers

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Speaker 1: that show a you know, wildly improbable probabilities in favor

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Speaker 1: of Trump is to create the sense of inevitability so

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Speaker 1: that if they lose, their supporters will all be primed

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Speaker 1: to think this could not have been fair, it must

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Speaker 1: have been rigged. And so you know that's part of

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Speaker 1: the goal of this rally as well. And yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean it was like, I found it very disturbing. I

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Speaker 1: found it really ugly. And to your question of like,

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Speaker 1: you know, the electoral implications and the calculus that went

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Speaker 1: into this, et cetera. We were talking after the Rogan

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Speaker 1: interview about how the goal for Commlin these final days

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Speaker 1: is like I can be commander in chief the golf

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Speaker 1: for Trump is like, I'm not a fascist, I'm a

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Speaker 1: bro right hanging out with Joe Rogan. Don't think that

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Speaker 1: this rally really served his interests in making him seem

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Speaker 1: less scary, less dark it. You know, if anything feeds

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Speaker 1: into the closing message of the Harris people of like, listen,

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Speaker 1: you should take seriously what John Kelly, Mark Milly, Jim Mattis,

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Speaker 1: Mike Pence have to say about who this guy actually is. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't buy that it's them electorally. And

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Speaker 1: they also have a different coalition than they did in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. You know, in twenty sixteen, it was all

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Speaker 1: about juicing the white working class vote, worked for him

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Speaker 1: obviously enough to win an electoral college. This time, they

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Speaker 1: are really reliant on eating into Democratic margins with black

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Speaker 1: and Latino men.

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Speaker 4: So that I think is part of why.

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Speaker 1: Whereas in the past in twenty sixteen, you know, if

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Speaker 1: there was some racist joke made or whatever, Trump would

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Speaker 1: never have apologize for it. I think the fact that

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Speaker 1: they're trying to court that different coalition, or really electorally

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Speaker 1: dependent on that different coalition, is what leads even the

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Speaker 1: Trump campaign to be like that was too far.

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Speaker 3: See I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I have a totally different read. I didn't see that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think you're prime to see darkness or

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Speaker 2: you're seeing darkness. I'm trying to look at it as

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Speaker 2: like basically an entertainment event. When you literally have hul

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Speaker 2: Cogan like ripping his shirt off and coming out and

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Speaker 2: like we're not nutsies here, and then you had what

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Speaker 2: Tony Inchcliff and the comedian. The aspect of it to

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Speaker 2: me was just pure camp and entertainment. You could see

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Speaker 2: darkness if you want to, and you're taking it seriously.

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Speaker 2: But the whole point of Trump is that most people

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Speaker 2: don't take him seriously, specifically the people who vote for

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Speaker 2: him or are inclined to do that. So for them,

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Speaker 2: like they see, if anything, the media bed wedding, they

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Speaker 2: love it.

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Speaker 3: There's nothing they love more.

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Speaker 2: Than to see people call him a fascist or a

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Speaker 2: racist or compare it to Nazi msg. That's the best

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Speaker 2: thing that could happen for them, because they wear it

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Speaker 2: on their sleeves. Then why are they well, okay, they're

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Speaker 2: does isself the one comment. But this antichrist stuff, that's like,

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Speaker 2: first of all, that's like any Republican evangelical man not

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Speaker 2: endorsing it. I've always found it creepy and weird, but

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Speaker 2: that's what they do. Well, let's continue with the Hull Cogan,

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Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson's speech. Almost all of it is basically a

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Speaker 2: round a vibe of our opponent as a joke. There

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Speaker 2: is a sense of an ability, there is domination. But

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Speaker 2: also what we're missing is there was a lot of

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Speaker 2: like laughter and frankly, like exuberance in the room for

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Speaker 2: what they're projecting. I saw another electoral thesis, which is

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Speaker 2: swing state voter time is over at this point, like

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Speaker 2: they've either made their decision or not. This is just

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Speaker 2: purely about driving out the base. And with that regard,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, I've spent too.

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Speaker 3: Much time now in Republican areas.

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Speaker 2: I've talked about this previously, and some GOP people will

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Speaker 2: hate this. There is a deep element of Trump's support

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Speaker 2: which is on the nose and for lack of a

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Speaker 2: better word, crass. Like in twenty twenty, I remember I

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Speaker 2: told the story a lot. I was driving through you know,

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Speaker 2: rural Nevada, and I just saw this gigantic sign this

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Speaker 2: farmer had and it just said Trump, fuck your feelings.

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Speaker 2: And I've thought about that sign a lot, because I

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Speaker 2: think that is everything. I was recently in Pennsylvania at

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Speaker 2: like one of those pumpkin patches or whatever, and there's

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Speaker 2: literally like grown men walking around with like f your

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Speaker 2: Feelings t shirts and I'm voting for the convicted felon

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Speaker 2: bumper stickers with truck nuts. As we'll get to, there

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Speaker 2: is a deep element of that, and those people love

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Speaker 2: this and you can hate it if you want, but.

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Speaker 3: They like it, you know, just it's the whole Maga mema.

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Speaker 3: There's a are you offended yet? You know I'm a white.

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Speaker 2: Christian male, Like does that piss you off? That is

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Speaker 2: a deep part of Trump culturalism, which is aimed directly

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Speaker 2: at the beating heart of institution and of Washington. So

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Speaker 2: I see this as the apotheosis of maga. The question

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Speaker 2: in my mind is it twenty twenty two or is

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Speaker 2: it twenty sixteen? In general, for Trump, this stuff doesn't stick.

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Speaker 2: It usually doesn't hurt. This whole fantasy about Latino and

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Speaker 2: black man. I mean, we've talked about this before. It's

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Speaker 2: nice to win a couple more percent, but the vast

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Speaker 2: majority of the electric's some seventy four to seventy five

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Speaker 2: percent is white. Fifty five percent of those people no

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Speaker 2: college degree, median voter in this country, fifty five year

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Speaker 2: old white dude. Yeah, but yeah, I mean I know

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Speaker 2: they're you know, their culturally will be signs most with them.

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Speaker 1: Offended by this whole situation is a lot of those

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Speaker 1: white college educated okay, vote.

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Speaker 3: That's already right.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're they're not.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's where listen, I think you're right that

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Speaker 1: this is the kind of beating heart apotheosis of Maga.

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Speaker 1: And that's what I find so disturbing. I think the deal,

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Speaker 1: the implicit deal that Trump has with his support is basically,

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Speaker 1: you give me unending loyalty, and listen, if you watch

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Speaker 1: this and you didn't think that this was like, you know,

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Speaker 1: worship of a cult hero. I don't know what you

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Speaker 1: were looking at. You give me unending loyalty, and I

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Speaker 1: will give you permission to indulge the ugliest parts of yourself.

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Speaker 1: That's what was on display here. I mean, Tucker came

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Speaker 1: close to saying it. He said something to the effect of,

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Speaker 1: you know what we love about Trump is he's given

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Speaker 1: us permission to tell the truth, which is of course

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Speaker 1: preposterous when you look at a guy and Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: who probably lies more than like literally any other political

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Speaker 1: figure we've ever seen. But what he means by that

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Speaker 1: is now, like we can tell the racist joke about

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Speaker 1: black people and watermelons, or you know, call Puerto Rico

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Speaker 1: a pile of garbage.

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Speaker 4: We can label our political.

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Speaker 1: Opponents as the enemy within and threatened to turn the

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Speaker 1: military on them, or label them literally the anti Christ

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Speaker 1: or the devil, or as one MAGA supporting evangelic pastor

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Speaker 1: has been calling her, like the Jezebel spirit.

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Speaker 4: We can do all of those things.

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Speaker 1: We don't have to pretend that we have this like

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Speaker 1: you know, veneer of polite society, and it's not about

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Speaker 1: it's really not about policy, because we've seen him be

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Speaker 1: all over the map. We've seen this policy platform this

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Speaker 1: time around totally different than what it was in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 4: At this same event.

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Speaker 1: You had people who were, you know, spouting policy positions

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Speaker 1: that were totally at odds.

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Speaker 4: With each other.

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Speaker 1: Rudy Giuliani calling all Palestinians terrorists and you know, cheering

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Speaker 1: for war hawkishness. And then Tulsi Gabber goes up there

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Speaker 1: and is like, oh, Trump is the anti war candidate.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be coherent because it's not about

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Speaker 1: that policy.

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Speaker 4: So I don't know what.

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Speaker 1: The electoral impact will be, you know, I genuinely I

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Speaker 1: don't think that this served the end that you and

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Speaker 1: I both were saying that Trump had. His goal in

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Speaker 1: the final days was humanized himself and to make it

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Speaker 1: feel preposterous that he was, you know, the sort of

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Speaker 1: like dictatorial, authoritarian, fascist figure. I don't think that this

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Speaker 1: helps him in that regard. You know, is it a

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Speaker 1: game change with thought?

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: But to me, it's just more it's less about the

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Speaker 1: electoral impact and more just about what this movement actually

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Speaker 1: promises to deliver, you know. I mean a core promise

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Speaker 1: that he's making that he talked a lot about here,

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Speaker 1: and actually we can play a little bit of the

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Speaker 1: Trump mashup. I don't know if it includes this part

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Speaker 1: or not, but something he's repeatedly promised is to use

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Speaker 1: the Alien Enemies Act of what is it, like seventeen

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Speaker 1: ninety eight or whatever, which was last used to justify

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Speaker 1: internment of Japanese Americans during World War Two.

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Speaker 4: Like, that's a promise that he makes.

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Speaker 1: He talks about the enemy within he you know, this

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Speaker 1: is like a core part of what's being cheered here.

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Speaker 4: I think it's ugly.

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Speaker 1: I think it's disturbing, And as I said before, I

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Speaker 1: think the core promise is like you can where your

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Speaker 1: fuck you're feeling sure, you can say, like you know,

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Speaker 1: all of the ugliest things that you would normally say

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Speaker 1: in private, it can now be out in the open.

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Speaker 4: And that's what this is.

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Speaker 2: A solibrations Again, Tho, where you're seeing it is disturbing,

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Speaker 2: and I'm like, I'm just looking at at analytically. What

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Speaker 2: it comes from is people feel truly like the Washington

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Speaker 2: establishment media institutions, et cetera, not only have left them behind,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not even talking about economically, it's almost almost

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Speaker 2: purely culturally. And their rage has now been bubbling for

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Speaker 2: almost twenty five years. So this is a logical and

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Speaker 2: frankly like very predictable and political expression.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a lot to that.

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Speaker 1: I also think that that rage can be directed towards,

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Speaker 1: you know, the corporate CEOs and billionaires and elite class

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Speaker 1: that have created vast inequalities in this country, or it

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Speaker 1: can be directed at, you know, a group of vulnerable

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Speaker 1: migrants to be scapegoated, which yes, I think is.

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Speaker 2: Really this is a very common talking point. Again, the

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Speaker 2: fact is it's that reality. Yeah, but Democrats have tried it,

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Speaker 2: and the truth is that people don't like when millions

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Speaker 2: of illegal immigrants come to their country. That's not scapegoating,

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Speaker 2: it's a pure fact. It's no country on earth would

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Speaker 2: accept the level of illegal migration that we've had, and

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Speaker 2: they rightfully blame a lot of elites for washing that

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Speaker 2: away and just saying, oh, it's actually not a problem.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if your community gets totally flooded or whatever.

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Speaker 3: We've had this debate a million times is.

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Speaker 1: To pretend like the whole problem in this country is immigrants.

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Speaker 2: Is proposable, a big thing and it's ugly, is illegal immigration,

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Speaker 2: and now most people believe that. In fact, if you

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Speaker 2: look at you know, you're talking about alieness edition. If

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Speaker 2: there was an Axios poll or whatever and it was like,

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Speaker 2: how many Americans support putting illegal immigrants in camps and

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Speaker 2: deporting them, it was forty seven.

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Speaker 3: Percent of the vast majority of independence.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think it is our electoral point. I'm

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Speaker 1: really not just getting your electoral point. Although I do

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Speaker 1: think that the pulling on immigration is a lot more

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Speaker 1: complex than you say, because if you ask them also,

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Speaker 1: should there be a pathway to citizenship for people who

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Speaker 1: are here who are undocumented, they also say yes, and

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Speaker 1: they definitely don't support like let's totally close our borders

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Speaker 1: and have net zero migration. So putting the electoral point aside,

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Speaker 1: though it's a moral point, I think it's wrong.

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Speaker 4: I think it's wrong. I think it's ugly.

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Speaker 1: I think it's an inaccurate picture of where the problems

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Speaker 1: in this country actually stem from. I think it's cheap

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Speaker 1: to take shots at people who are, you know, largely powerless,

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Speaker 1: who are oftentimes escaping, you know, systems of persecution that

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Speaker 1: our country basically, you know, set up. Many of the

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Speaker 1: migrants who are coming here are fleeing from countries that

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Speaker 1: we have incredibly onerous sanctions on. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: it's it's cheap, it's ugly, and it's wrong, you know,

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Speaker 1: the electoral point, like, we'll see how it works out

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Speaker 1: next week. We'll have an answer to that very quickly.

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Speaker 1: But you know, my fear is that it actually is

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Speaker 1: too effective, that it does work, that there is a

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Speaker 1: large appetite for it.

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Speaker 4: But I'm also not convinced of that yet.

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Speaker 2: I mean fair enough, I guess I would just say

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Speaker 2: you can, you're what free to morally object, But it's

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Speaker 2: a democracy. People get to vote how they want, and

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Speaker 2: I don't generally believe in like tisting it people and

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Speaker 2: saying oh, it's actually not a problem, like we should

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Speaker 2: hear what it is. Like, Look, do I live my

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Speaker 2: life with your feelings T shirt and trucknuts?

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Speaker 8: Now?

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Speaker 2: I don't, And honestly I don't have a lot of

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Speaker 2: like I don't really get it period, but I can

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Speaker 2: anthropologically look at them and be like, Okay, well there's

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Speaker 2: something going on here, and for me, like full maga.

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Speaker 2: Basically of what that rally was is that is a

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Speaker 2: political and cultural expression of, frankly, a very ignored force

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Speaker 2: and of one which people feel is not accurately reflected

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Speaker 2: in their higher institutions of culture media, and at a

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Speaker 2: certain point, like you do have to if it wins,

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Speaker 2: people should ask a lot of questions about how did

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Speaker 2: that happen?

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Speaker 3: What exactly led to this?

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Speaker 2: If you want to make that corporate argument, you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean, frankly, look I don't even.

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Speaker 3: Disagree, but the truth is is that people don't care.

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Speaker 2: I hate to say it, but every time that they've

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Speaker 2: tried the so called deliverism and this argument in the

436
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: especially in the face of mass illegal migration, it's rejected

437
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 2: almost entirely.

438
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 3: To the extent that Democrats have won any ground.

439
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 2: It's with rich, college educated whites who are culturally look

440
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 2: at the truck nuts and the fuck your Feelings t

441
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 2: shirt and are repulsed by their fellows the elder people.

442
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: While thing to say, though, when Republicans, when was the

443
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: last time they even won the popular vote?

444
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 3: Uh, well, two thousand and four.

445
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 1: So I mean, you act like this is the vast

446
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 1: majority of the country.

447
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 4: Number one, I mean Democratic Democrats, even in the electoral

448
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 4: Number one.

449
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 1: I mean, but that's pretending like the only thing anyone

450
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: cares about is immigration. Number one, Democrats have embraced a

451
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 1: very hawkas, but to pretend like, you know, the anti

452
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 1: immigrant positions one that isn't held by elite politicians is

453
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: at this point preposters. It's my view that doesn't exist

454
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 1: among elite politicians. You don't hear it from Democrats at

455
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 1: this point whatsoever. But number two, like there's this posturing,

456
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: like this is this overwhelming majority that's being ignored, and

457
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 1: it's like, no, actually, it's it is a minority, as

458
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 1: evidence by you know, every election since Donald Trump has

459
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 1: been on the scene, where he has never won the

460
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 1: popular vote, and where Republicans lost in twenty eighteen, loss

461
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, et cetera.

462
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: And you know, so it.

463
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 1: It also overstates how popular this mode of politics has

464
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,679
Speaker 1: been proven to be. So, Like I said, listen, I'm

465
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 1: really not making an electoral point because I'm humble of

466
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going to happen next week. You know,

467
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 1: maybe people love calling Puerto Rico an island of trash

468
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: and love calling for immigrants to be rounded up and

469
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: put in camps, and love you know, saying Kamala Harris

470
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 1: is the Antichrist, or at least just you know, are

471
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: happy to ignore it for whatever reason that could certainly

472
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: be the case. I'm making the point that, you know,

473
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: I immigrants are not the problem in this country. They

474
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 1: are not the reason why buying large housing prices are high.

475
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 4: They are not the.

476
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,479
Speaker 1: Reason why it's so hard to afford healthcare. They are

477
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,719
Speaker 1: not the reason why education costs have skyroad rocketed so dramatically.

478
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 1: They are you know, yes, there is an issue with

479
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 1: we need to get the border and control. I personally

480
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 1: think we actually be better off as a country if

481
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: we let in far more legal immigrants than we have.

482
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: But you know, I just think that this direction for

483
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: the country is ugly bad and wrong.

484
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 4: Okay, my byeline.

485
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: Again, I think that's fair. I've made various counter arguments

486
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: as to why. But in general, again, you want to

487
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 2: listen to people and you don't want to try and

488
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 2: override their concerns.

489
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 3: And if that I fundamentally.

490
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 2: Believe, and I actually tweeted the other day, I don't

491
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 2: think it's the economy stupid.

492
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 3: I think it's immigration stupid.

493
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 2: I think that if Trump wins this election, specifically if

494
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 2: he also wins a popular vote, which I think there's

495
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 2: a twenty seven percent chance according to Nate Silver, it

496
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 2: will be the clearest mandate and or electoral signal in

497
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: modern history, especially because a lot of the retconning of

498
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen.

499
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 3: If we go back and look if there was.

500
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: A study done by the CSPI, I want to say

501
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 2: we talked about it in twenty twenty, where the vast

502
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: majority of people who voted for Trump did so because

503
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: of immigration. And I've just come around to the fact

504
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 2: that immigration is the singular defining issue of the Republican Party.

505
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 2: I think abortion is now the defining issue. Either of

506
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 2: those two reconcilable questions will be determined on election day

507
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 2: as to what it is, and democratically it does need

508
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 2: to be solved or at least found like some sort

509
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: of status quo like we did previously in eras, because otherwise,

510
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: you know, if you care about taxes or whatever, the

511
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 2: vast majority of people these days are not voting on that,

512
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: they can claim what they want. I've seen too much

513
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 2: swing state data on immigration for Republicans. It is literally

514
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 2: the number one thing that they're running at Reublicans.

515
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 4: No, it's not.

516
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: No, the Republicans have reduced their ads spending on immigration,

517
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 1: but they're they're predominantly spending money on trans panic and yeah,

518
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 1: but they are like taxes economic space.

519
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 2: I disagree with that because the trans ad is all

520
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 2: about illegal immigration. It's specifically when you watch it, they're

521
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 2: like talking about transgender surgeries for illegal migrants from the

522
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: clip of twenty and nineteen. I mean, look, you've said

523
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 2: it before too. A lot of that is just coding

524
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 2: Comma as too liberal. Is that immigration trans whatever. I mean,

525
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, it's not economic. I

526
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: know that one on Democrats they're trying with taxes, which

527
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 2: talked about with Logan last week, but a huge part

528
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: of it is just abortion too. So you know, what

529
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 2: does the mandate say if Kamala wins. I would say,

530
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 2: if Kamala wins, that the mandate is actually that this

531
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 2: maga you know, fear feeling stuff does not land in

532
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 2: the way that I think it does, and people should

533
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 2: be very humble about that too, which they won't. I

534
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 2: think You're right, they'll say that the election was stolen,

535
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 2: but vice versa. You know, if that if that wins,

536
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 2: people should really take a step and be like, Okay,

537
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: what's going on here?

538
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 3: You know, why did this happen?

539
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 9: Yeah?

540
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: Maybe, although it's also like, you know, the election is

541
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: probably going to be decided by like a tines se

542
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: liver of votes.

543
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 3: Maybe yeah, So you.

544
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 4: Know there will be many things last to everything.

545
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: Should I say that ninety percent of people agree with

546
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 2: me or with you?

547
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: Of course not.

548
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just saying, like I think there's a tendency

549
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 1: sometimes in an election that's very narrow to read into

550
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: that like, oh, the public overwhelmingly thinks this. So the

551
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,239
Speaker 1: public overwhelmingly thinks that when it's really like, you know,

552
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: twenty thousand people in Wisconsin whatever, you know. So I

553
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: don't think that our deep divide in the country. I

554
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: don't think we'll learn anything that more, much more profoundly

555
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 1: different about the deep divides that exist in the country,

556
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: depending on whether this is a narrow win by Trump

557
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 1: or a narrow win by Kamla.

558
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 4: All right, should we hear let's.

559
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 3: Talk about plate Trump. I was just gonna skip it right.

560
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 4: So to me, it's the same shit. There's that.

561
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 3: Here's the thing.

562
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 2: To me, Trump is a secondary character almost for this

563
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 2: because Trump himself and what he says does not matter.

564
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: As we see at the rally.

565
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 2: You can be anti war, and you can say the Palasais,

566
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 2: what did he say? Are raised at age two years

567
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: old to slaughter people. The contradiction is the point. The

568
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 2: contradiction is the fact that the cultural saying fuck you

569
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: to the elites.

570
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 3: That's it.

571
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: That's basically to the elite, okay, fine deliverable immigrants.

572
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: To elite tastemakers who think that it's okay to have

573
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: twelve million people illegally let in your country, or who

574
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 2: don't think it's that big of a deal or whatever

575
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 2: it's about, you know, even culturally to the extent I mean,

576
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: I've talked about this before. You can't turn a TV

577
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 2: on without seeing like some transgender couple or whatever in

578
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 2: a TV show shoehorned and got for no reason.

579
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 3: I mean, it's annoying. It is annoying.

580
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: I mean, right, because it's obviously a social agenda, of

581
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 2: which is held by a small.

582
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 1: Social agenda trying to be imposed as theory of people.

583
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 4: Well, no, you don't hate transparent you think that they do,

584
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 4: so I don't.

585
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: Think that people hate trans people. I don't hate trans people.

586
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 2: I think people should be able to do what they want.

587
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 2: I don't like gender ideology and specifically the way that

588
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 2: it's message towards children or I mean, we haven't covered

589
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 2: this yet, but there was a landmark study about puberty

590
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 2: blockers that somehow got held up at the NIH because

591
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 2: it happened to prove that it didn't work so well

592
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 2: for the people.

593
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 7: Who do that.

594
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 3: Those are legitimate issues. And that's my point is that,

595
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 3: but you.

596
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 4: Didn't start with that.

597
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: You started with seeing a transgender couple in a commercial.

598
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 3: Which is what, which is a signal of what, which

599
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 3: is what.

600
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: Signal of Hey, it's cool to be who you are,

601
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: no big deal, which is something that most Americans agree with.

602
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: Which is why the like, you know, transgender panic in

603
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two didn't pan out because people like, all right, whatever,

604
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: does they care more about other stuff? Because you know,

605
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: it's the only Kelly out there being like, oh, high

606
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: school athletes, transgender high school athletes is my number one issue.

607
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: Like that's an insane fringe view, but it actually is. Hell,

608
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think you do hold that view,

609
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: but that is like a kind of a core bul

610
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 1: Like she gets a lot of praise for that in

611
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, and you know, so that's become a

612
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: center of energy among this group as well.

613
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: But the trans thing was just a metaphor for the

614
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: idea that social liberalism dominates at the very high commanding

615
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 2: heights of the American culture, from Disney to Wicked or whatever,

616
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 2: and that people are annoyed by it to the point where, yeah,

617
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: they like the maga apotheosis because they want those people

618
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: to cry tears and to feel bad.

619
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 3: I sympathize. I understand that feeling. Do I think it's

620
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: all that productive. No, not necessarily, but I mean it's politics, right.

621
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: We have to learn a little bit from what Vox Popular,

622
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 2: you know, is kind of trying to send a signal

623
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: on and that's what I would hope that people take

624
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 2: away if Trump does win the election. Unfortunately, I don't

625
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: think that that's necessarily the case. But that's kind of

626
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: why I say Trump is not what he says doesn't matter.

627
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 2: He's a figure. Is is like a like a lightning

628
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: rod or whatever for whatever cause that you know, pisses

629
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 2: people off in the way that you want to. I

630
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: think immigration is the bigger part of that, but there's

631
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: it's a big tent, you know, for grievance. That that

632
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 2: explains why Rudy and Tulsey and RFK and all these

633
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: people can be pro Trump all at the same time,

634
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: and the internal contradictions are the point. You know, I

635
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 2: increasingly believe that about MAGA. Let's move on to the

636
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: next part here as skipping Donald Trump and talking here

637
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 2: about the popular vote and also about some Trump efforts

638
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: to run up the score and possibly set the stage

639
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: for a stop to steal two point zero. Let's start

640
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 2: with Harry Enton about that possibility of Donald Trump winning

641
00:29:58,280 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 2: the popular vote.

642
00:29:59,080 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

643
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 9: Trump may finally get his great white whale. Harris versus

644
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 9: Trump national margin. You mentioned that New York Times poll

645
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 9: a tie that's actually right in the middle of the spectrum.

646
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 9: When we're talking about recent polling data, you don't have

647
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 9: to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally.

648
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 9: He was up by two points in the CNBC poll,

649
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,479
Speaker 9: up by three in the Wall Street Journal poll. Very

650
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 9: close races within the margin of error. But then the

651
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 9: same thing on the other side, right, you have Harris

652
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 9: up by three points according to IPSOS. The say twenty

653
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 9: four you gov poll it's a bunch of academics also

654
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 9: has Harris up by three. But the bottom line is

655
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 9: with the popular vote, which we really haven't focused upon,

656
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 9: a very very tight race, John. Fact is, Donald Trump

657
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 9: is very much in a position he could win the

658
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 9: popular vote, which of course is something he would.

659
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 2: Absolutely love to do and would be something very different

660
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: than we have seen compared to last time in the polling,

661
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: compared to last time.

662
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 9: Exactly right. So I went back through the time machine,

663
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 9: all right, I went back through the time machine to

664
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 9: see where were the past two races. At this point

665
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 9: in the campaign, Look, Harrison, the average poll right now

666
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 9: is up by one, well within the margin. Ever, you

667
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 9: go back four years ago, Joe Biden was well ahead

668
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 9: of Donald Trump in the national popular vote polls. He

669
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 9: was up by nine even Hillary Clinton was up by

670
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 9: six points. So now Donald Trump is in a position

671
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 9: he really hasn't been before at this point in the

672
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 9: campaign where he could truly compete. And we can truly

673
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 9: say that the popular vote at this point is way

674
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 9: too close to.

675
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: Cole okay, so very clearly it's possibility.

676
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 8: I guess.

677
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 2: My one quibble though, is that he was using polls

678
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: and not the actual results from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty.

679
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: And did you notice that right right? Because the actual

680
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen popular vote was two point one for Hillary.

681
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 3: Let's see what it was for I think it was

682
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: four and a half. I was, yeah, it was quite high.

683
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's in fifty one point three to forty six

684
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: point eight. And I guess the reason there was a

685
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 2: massive historical turnout in all states, so we actually won

686
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:53,959
Speaker 2: more of the popular vote because it had a lot

687
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: more Blue voters in places like New York, California and

688
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: elsewhere that came out.

689
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: But that, yeah, in addition, so it is an interesting point.

690
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, one of the things that's fascinating here

691
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: is that between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, Republicans actually

692
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: opened up more of an electoral college advantage. And now,

693
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: based on the twenty twenty two results and based on

694
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: the polling you know, as it exists currently going into

695
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, it looks like they may actually have

696
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: less of an electoral college edge than they did even

697
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, which shows you these coalitions aren't exactly

698
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: static that they move around. I mean, do I think

699
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: Trump's going to win the popular vote?

700
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 4: Probably not.

701
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: In both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty he got around

702
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: like forty seven percent of the vote. I think it

703
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: would be a stretch to see him getting an actual

704
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: over majority.

705
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 4: But you can't rule anything out.

706
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: And I will say, if Trump wins the popular vote

707
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: and loses the electoral.

708
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 3: College, there's a three percent chance that will be that will.

709
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: Be the end of the electoral college. It will be

710
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: over for the electoral college. And I just want to say,

711
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: like back when Hillary lost because she won the popular vote,

712
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: and lost the electoral College. I wasn't one of those

713
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: people around there bitching. Yes, I went the electoral College

714
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: to go away, But those were the rules of the game,

715
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: and she understood them that she played. And so even

716
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: if you know Trump wins the bopular and loses the

717
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 1: electoral College, you don't get to cry about the rules

718
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: of the game as they are set up and established today.

719
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: But you know, he's clearly trying to project a lot

720
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: of confidence. Like I said, I think the New York

721
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: City rally was an attempt to create the sense of inevitability.

722
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: He also we can put this up on the screen

723
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 1: A five. They announced they're going to do a campaign

724
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: in Salem, Virginia. Now, Pole just came out a high

725
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 1: quality poll from Washington Post showing you know, Virginia looks

726
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: like it's not a swing state. It looks the same

727
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: as it did last time. I think it was six

728
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 1: okay was the margin.

729
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: So you know Virginia better than I do. What is

730
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 3: what's the vibe in Salem? Is it like southern VIRGINI I.

731
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: Think Salem is southwestern Virginia. I'm pretty sure so this

732
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: is I can look it up, but I'm pretty sure.

733
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 1: This is like in the mountains in southwestern Virginia.

734
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 3: I thought about it going and then I saw it

735
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 3: was a three hour drive time. I'm like, that's not

736
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 3: gonna happen.

737
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, let me see. Yeah, yeah, yeah it is.

738
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: It's almost like to the Virginia line over close to ROANOK.

739
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is like this is rural Appalachian Virginia.

740
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: I'm sure he has a lot of supporters there. They'll

741
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: be very excited to see him. Is he going to

742
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: win the state of Virginia this I would be willing

743
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: to say absolutely not. He's also doing a rally in

744
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: New Mexico. Is he gonna win New Mexico? Also, there

745
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 1: is zero indication he's going to win the state of

746
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: New Mexico. You even have a fake Ramaswami in the.

747
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 3: New York Yeah. New York is a swing state.

748
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 4: It's said the rally like do people just like being

749
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 4: lied to?

750
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: I don't know, because that is also preposterous and there

751
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: is no no data to back it up whatsoever. But

752
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: the plan here is to create the sense of like, oh,

753
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: we're going on the offense, even in places like New

754
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: Mexico and Virginia and New York. Can you imagine we're

755
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 1: going on. I saw people tweeting like, Oh, We're gonna

756
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: win New.

757
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 4: Jersey, Like, no, you are not.

758
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: But the idea is to create the sense that it's

759
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 1: a done deal, the election's over. Trump's gonna win, even

760
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 1: though every you know analysis out there says it's a

761
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 1: coin flip. And then if he does lose, you created

762
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 1: the sense that it was over and there was no

763
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 1: way Democrats could win. And so then your your fans

764
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: are going to be primed and ready to believe that

765
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: if you don't win, this was stolen, and they'll be

766
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: ready for whatever, you know, conspiracy theory you want to

767
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: put out there as to why this was unfair, unjust

768
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: and you were robbed, et cetera, et cetera. And so

769
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 1: I genuinely think that is part of the strategy of

770
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: going to places like Virginia, New Mexico, New.

771
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 3: York, et cetera.

772
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 2: I think that's definitely part of it. I was wondering

773
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 2: too with Salem. I was like, Okay, well, what's the

774
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,959
Speaker 2: big brain case for it? Is like, like you said,

775
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 2: Appalachia trying to get some North Carolina folks maybe to

776
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: drive over.

777
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 3: Could be you know. I was like, OK, I could

778
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,240
Speaker 3: see that, but you could just go to Yeah, you could.

779
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 4: Just go to not that to North Carolina.

780
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 3: Actually, I mean I don't know.

781
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: You know, I read stories about people at these Trump rallies.

782
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: You drive for fifteen hours or whatever, so you never know.

783
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: In terms of New Mexico, it's funny. Last time around,

784
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,359
Speaker 2: I remember tracking this Trump was they were like, we're

785
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 2: gonna win New Mexico.

786
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 3: New Mexico's in play.

787
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 2: Jason Miller, who currently works with the campaign, he kept

788
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: saying that over and over again. And the action result

789
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 2: is he lost it by I think a bigger margin

790
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty than he did in six years. So yeah,

791
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: I don't think that New Mexico is gonna happen. I mean,

792
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: I guess the case is maybe some people drive over

793
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 2: from Arizona from to New Mexico, but in general, right.

794
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 3: The domination is the point.

795
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 2: Now the risk is that, hey, man, you probably should

796
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 2: go to Wisconsin. Because I may have incorrectly been decided,

797
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 2: but I saw someone say he hadn't been to Wisconsin

798
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 2: or in that area in like three weeks, which is

799
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 2: a long time. I mean, that was a huge talking

800
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 2: point after twenty sixteen. So there could be a lot

801
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 2: of overconfidence in the Trump campaign right now.

802
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 3: We see it's not there.

803
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 2: You go, it's only been a month. You know, it's

804
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 2: been a month since you're in Wisconsin. Now, maybe it's

805
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: just a sign of hey, we're gonna win Wisconsin.

806
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 3: We're not worried about it. There's some signs in that direction.

807
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we were just talking with Logan

808
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 2: and he thinks was and is like the smallest or

809
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: the best state now before him in terms of but he.

810
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 4: Still has them losing in the average.

811
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: So it's I mean, no one could think like, even

812
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 1: if you feel like Wisconsin is moving towards Trump, you

813
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 1: certainly can't think like all.

814
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 4: This is done and you know it's a wrap now.

815
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 1: I do see he's going to hold a rally in

816
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: Milwaukee a couple days before the election.

817
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 4: Okay, so that's on their radar. I listen.

818
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 1: I mean a lot of these campaign decisions on the

819
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 1: Trump side too, are just about like his ego, Yes, right,

820
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 1: like he wants to pretend like New Mexico's in play.

821
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 4: He probably maybe even believes it.

822
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 1: Right at the rally last night, he said he thinks

823
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: they're going to win Colorado. You are not gonna win Colorado.

824
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: But you know, he may have convinced himself of that,

825
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: and so part of it is just like playing to

826
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,439
Speaker 1: his ego as well. And then I also think there's

827
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: a sense that since politics are so national, does it

828
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 1: really matter if you do the rally in Sale in

829
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: Virginia versus in North Carolina.

830
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 3: That was my other case was that it's just like

831
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 3: it's all a show, and.

832
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 1: It's a national show, and the particular location, like whether

833
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: it's in ped Slovania or in Virginia or whatever, it

834
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 1: doesn't ultimately matter all that.

835
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 2: U That's what I was thinking, because I was, you

836
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 2: know again the Madison Square Garden thing. At first thought

837
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: it was dumb. I'm like, why are you doing it?

838
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 2: And then I was like, oh, well, even if you

839
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 2: live in like bumfuck wherever, like you know what Madison

840
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 2: Square Garden is. So you see a picture of Madison

841
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: Square Garden and Trump in a packed arena where they

842
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 2: literally had to turn people away, and you know what,

843
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 2: it is same in terms of I mean, actually I

844
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 2: remember in Iowa and in New Hampshire last time around,

845
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 2: Trump did not spend that much time or on the

846
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 2: ground in twenty sixteen, Ted Cruz and the Marco made

847
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: a lot of talking points about that, but what ended

848
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 2: up being correct. The correct strategy was just going Fox

849
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 2: News or go wherever, hold a rally, say whatever you want,

850
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 2: people into it it, watch it, vote for you. I mean,

851
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 2: obviously was he got second I think in Iowa. But

852
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 2: that was a big media strategy where the ground game

853
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 2: was shook up entirely by the nationalization my politics. And

854
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 2: if you look at this time around, I mean Ron

855
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 2: DeSantis and Nicki Haley and these people, they spend a

856
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 2: ton of time on the ground. Vivek didn't go to

857
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 2: all ninety nine counties in ilank. Yeah, it didn't matter, right,

858
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 2: how much you get five percent of the vote something

859
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 2: like that.

860
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, And Chick was really the first person kind of

861
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: understand that back in twenty six it was, you know,

862
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 1: because he didn't run like a traditional campaign.

863
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 4: Really it was very like more like Rocky too.

864
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 3: You think it's ramshackle now.

865
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 2: Back then it was a wild It was the Trump

866
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 2: helicopter and like five guys, one of them we used

867
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 2: to work for the UFC.

868
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 5: That was it.

869
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, it was enough to win the

870
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 1: popular road to get the job done and you know

871
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 1: the rules of the game as they existed, so so

872
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 1: that that may be part of it too.

873
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 3: Is like the.

874
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: More traditional campaign heads on his team are like, Hey,

875
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 1: he wants to do this thing for his ego and

876
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 1: it doesn't really hurt, so.

877
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 4: Why not go to Virginia.

878
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think I am yeah, I think

879
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 2: that that's the correct strategy. Probably the nationalization matters most.

880
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 2: And yeah, like you said, for stop the steal two

881
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 2: point zero, if that's what you want to set up,

882
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 2: you're like, well, you know, the inevitive ability. I mean,

883
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: I just feel like at the point this cake is baked,

884
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 2: like they're going to say it no matter what, like

885
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 2: whether they're going to Salem or whether they're going away,

886
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. I mean, the level of like delusion

887
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 2: up here, specifically for a lot of these boomers like you,

888
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 2: there's not a word you could say to these folks

889
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,839
Speaker 2: about why the election was not stolen. So he's got

890
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 2: it in the bag.

891
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 7: And I was.

892
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:18,800
Speaker 2: You know, if you go on Twitter, the amount of

893
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 2: election just straight up bullshit that you will consume on

894
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 2: a daily basis is unbelievable to me. I think Trump

895
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 2: is doing quite well on the race. I think he's

896
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: got a more better than not shot of winning. Do

897
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 2: I think he's a ninety three percent chance of winning? No,

898
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 2: who even comes up with this stuff? Yeah, that's where

899
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, I'm I was thinking about this. Republicans

900
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: seem booied psychologically, are buoyed by this sense of inevitability.

901
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 2: Democrats are neurotic, and they're convinced that they're going to lose. Now,

902
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: every big thing I've ever accomplished in my life, even

903
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: if I ever had a good chance of doing it,

904
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: I always acted like I was gonna lose, just to

905
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: make sure you do everything to make sure that it

906
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 2: doesn't happen. So there are just screens of overconfidence to

907
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 2: me right now and bravado and ego.

908
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 3: It's just I don't know, karma is real, all right,

909
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 3: Like it'll check you very quickly.

910
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 4: It's a coin flip election.

911
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what it is, a coin flip election, and

912
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,800
Speaker 1: you know, no one can say which direction the polls

913
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: might be wrong, Like we don't know. Maybe they are

914
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,800
Speaker 1: underestimating trial. That's that's very possible, but you don't know that.

915
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean part of it is just they

916
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,400
Speaker 1: like to pretend. I mean, it's part of like the

917
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 1: ethos of like owning the Libs. Part of owning the

918
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 1: Libs is like we're destroying you and we're dominating. You're

919
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: gonna we're going to New Mexico, We're going to we're

920
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: going to New York where you know, we're eating your lunch.

921
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 4: You're going to be destroyed.

922
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 1: You're gonna be as one speaker at MSG said, you're

923
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: going to be slaughtered on election day. It's part you know,

924
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 1: that's part of what like fuels this movement is the

925
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 1: sense of like, you know, we're destroying you and owning

926
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: the Libs, et cetera. And then from the Trump perspective,

927
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 1: this and the you know, Trump influencers. I do think

928
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 1: it's more concerted strategy to lay the groundwork for. But

929
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 1: if we do lose, we're going to claim we want

930
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 1: it anyway, and you are all going to believe it,

931
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: and they are all going to believe it. And I

932
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: think there will be much that we're going to talk

933
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 1: more tomorrow about some of the specific, like organized efforts

934
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: that they put in place to lay the groundwork for

935
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: that challenge.

936
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 4: If they were you know, to narrowly lose or to

937
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 4: lose at all the election. Next week. We're going to

938
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 4: get more into the specifics of that.

939
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 1: But you know, when you see like Elon talking about

940
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: potential voter fraud and Marjorie Taylor Green claiming that they're

941
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: switching votes, and then this organized effort of all these

942
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: lawsuits across a bunch of different states that they've already

943
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 1: put into place, you had some dude in North Carolina

944
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: suggesting they should just preemptively hand the Electoral College votes

945
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: over to Trump.

946
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 3: Makes you see that, Yeah, I did, and he's actually

947
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 3: a member of Congress.

948
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 1: That's just incredible, unbelievable. So I mean there, Yeah, they

949
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 1: are laying the groundwork and it will not be hard.

950
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 1: It will be much easier this time around to convince

951
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: all of their people that the election was stolen than

952
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 1: it was last time around.

953
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 4: And that's part of what's going on here.

954
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 3: There you go.

955
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: All right, So, speaking of that coin flip election, we

956
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 1: have Logan Phillips from Race to the White House joining

957
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 1: us to talk about exactly where things stand. The latest

958
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: polls break all of that down for us, and also

959
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: to answer this question of whether or not pollsters are

960
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,320
Speaker 1: hurting because you see hurting like with the d I

961
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: feel like I always it sounds like hurting, I.

962
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 3: Mean her ding. They probably are hurting.

963
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 1: They're probably also hurting emotionally. But anyway, because they're all

964
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: getting like the exact same results, So is that likely

965
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 1: or are they kind of trying to fudge the numbers

966
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 1: a little bit so that they're not too much out

967
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 1: over their skis in the event of either a Trump

968
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 1: or a Kamla victory.

969
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 4: Let's get right to it all right, guys.

970
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: Election Day, as you probably know, is literally a week

971
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: from tomorrow, which I'm having trouble rapping my head around.

972
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 1: But joining us sound to breakdown where the polls stand

973
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 1: as of today is our friend Logan Phillips of Race

974
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: to the White House and offering exclusive content here at

975
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:54,919
Speaker 1: Bring Points.

976
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,959
Speaker 4: Great to see Logan, Yeah, of course.

977
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 1: So we've got a little clip here from Steve Kernaki

978
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: over at MSNBC talking about how the poles have trended

979
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:04,919
Speaker 1: somewhat towards Trump.

980
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.

981
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 8: One thing we have noticed in the last couple of days.

982
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 8: This is not all of the polls that are out

983
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 8: there now, but we have seen a number four in

984
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 8: the last four days that have shown very small but

985
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 8: in the context of this close race, potentially meaningful movement

986
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 8: in Trump's direction. I don't want to overstate it, but

987
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 8: at the same time, it's hard to ignore these four.

988
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 8: The CNBC poll came out the other day as Trump

989
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 8: ahead by two, the Wall Street Journal poll trump ahead

990
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 8: by three. These are national numbers Sienna and the New

991
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 8: York Times A tide race, CNN a tide race. The

992
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 8: significance here is broader movement again we're seeing in Trump's direction.

993
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,360
Speaker 8: To put this in some context, here is our current

994
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 8: national polling average. Let me call that up on the

995
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,720
Speaker 8: screen for you. Right here, Harris continues to lead nationally.

996
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 8: I want to stretch that, but we've been tracking this

997
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 8: every week on the air. Here a couple of weeks ago,

998
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,439
Speaker 8: this number was at three for Kamala Harris, her leading

999
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 8: the poll average now down to one point because of

1000
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 8: some of the numbers that I just showed you. Of course,

1001
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 8: the swing states, the battleground states, are going to be

1002
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 8: what decide this election. And look how close those are.

1003
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 3: We see one point two nationally.

1004
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 8: Just about all these swing states are even tighter than

1005
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 8: that one of.

1006
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: Those poles that Karnaki references, there is the New York Times,

1007
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: Theano Pole, which of course people pay a lot of

1008
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 1: attention to.

1009
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 4: You can put this up on the screen.

1010
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 1: This is I believe, their final final national poll before

1011
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 1: election day, and it does show the two of these

1012
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 1: candidates tied for eight percent. So what are you seeing

1013
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 1: in terms of the trends as we head in here

1014
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:34,720
Speaker 1: to the final stretch.

1015
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 10: Yeah, the trends are that the race went from Razor

1016
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 10: tight with Harris having a slight edge to Razor tight

1017
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 10: with basically being even maybe the slightest vetch of Harris

1018
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 10: in the key swing states. So the movement is real,

1019
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 10: fortunately for Harris, and it's unusual'll say this for a

1020
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 10: Democrats perspective. The election is decided by the Electoral College

1021
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 10: versus the national vote, and while Trump is gaining in

1022
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 10: swing states, the gain is a little more subtle, except

1023
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 10: maybe in Wisconsin where it seems to be getting a

1024
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:58,280
Speaker 10: little faster.

1025
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 2: Got it right, So if we stick with them and

1026
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 2: we continue down some of the data points that we have,

1027
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 2: can we put the next one up on the screen.

1028
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 2: We saw here, you know, multiple show things showing tied.

1029
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 2: Now as you just mentioned, Can you lay out why

1030
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 2: maybe the popular vote will not be as a deciding

1031
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 2: factor this time around? So what I mean by that

1032
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 2: is usually the rule of thumb with Republicans is that

1033
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: if the Democrats are losing the popular vote or even

1034
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 2: polling in the popular vote within one or even two points,

1035
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 2: and that usually means that there's an electoral college bias

1036
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 2: to the Republicans. Something we've been trying to prime the

1037
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: audience for is this may be changing because of Republican

1038
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 2: shifts in deep blue states places like California and in

1039
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 2: New York. Should we read into it that way and

1040
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 2: contextualize it in the swing states?

1041
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 10: Like you said, yeah, I do think that Harris probably

1042
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 10: needs to win the popular vote to win, and on

1043
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 10: average she's leading the polls by like one and a

1044
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 10: half to two points. Okay, nationally speaking, but the change

1045
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,720
Speaker 10: and how much of an edge you need can change dramatically,

1046
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 10: And honestly, there have been cycles even in this millennium

1047
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,879
Speaker 10: twenty four twenty twelve where Democrats lost the popular vote

1048
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 10: they easily could have won the election, especially two thousand

1049
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 10: and four, So we actually see cycle to cycle. This

1050
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 10: changes all the time because individual states change all the time.

1051
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,359
Speaker 10: If Texas becomes a proper straight down the middle state,

1052
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 10: Democrats could easily lose the popular vote and run the

1053
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 10: electoral college, for example, which is not where we're now we.

1054
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 2: Are yet, right, So this could be more of a precursor,

1055
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 2: possibly of things to come, This trend very possibly.

1056
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, what are some of the demographic realignments that have

1057
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,839
Speaker 1: led to that shift in terms of the popular vote

1058
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 1: electoral college vote dynamic.

1059
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 10: I think that Democrats are doing a bit better in

1060
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 10: the suburbs now they c hereinly did in twenty twenty two,

1061
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 10: and that is making helping them a little bit in

1062
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 10: states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Honestly, every single one of

1063
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 10: the swing states, right is also kind of what's putting

1064
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 10: Texas in play too. Plus, Democrats appear to be doing

1065
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 10: a little better at the white vote relative to how

1066
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 10: they were doing in sixteen and perhaps twenty at least

1067
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,919
Speaker 10: relative to where the popular vote is, so that means

1068
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 10: that they're, you know, the alignment of voters might be

1069
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 10: a little closer to just where the swing states happen

1070
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 10: to be. It doesn't mean that that inherently would give

1071
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:00,040
Speaker 10: you an edge. It is just the absolute ran and

1072
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 10: which states happened to be the most competitive American politics

1073
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 10: at this point in time.

1074
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: Is this a continuation of some of the trends that

1075
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: we saw in the mid terms because Republicans, you know,

1076
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 1: that red wave didn't materialize, but there were a few

1077
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 1: states where they were kind of did right, Florida and

1078
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: New York in particular, California somewhat to a lesser extent.

1079
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,760
Speaker 1: What are some of the peculiar dynamics in those states

1080
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,320
Speaker 1: which are not swing states that have led Republicans to

1081
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 1: either you know, gain ground in New York, gain even

1082
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: more ground in the state of Florida.

1083
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think some of it has to do with

1084
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,919
Speaker 10: focal politics. Kathy Hocals in particularly popular in New York.

1085
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 10: Cromo had was popular until we had all his ethical

1086
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 10: issues that force you out of office. And it's you know,

1087
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 10: when you have a stay of one party rule for

1088
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 10: long enough time, it can lead to some inefficiencies in

1089
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 10: government and people can over time turn against that. So

1090
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 10: that might be a problem there as well. You know,

1091
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 10: crime has been a problem in New York. It's gone down,

1092
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 10: but you know, still important to people and New York

1093
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 10: probably due to federal reasons hasn't always had the resources

1094
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 10: and needs. As you have a lot of immigrants and

1095
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 10: asylum sequens've come to the state who don't yet have

1096
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 10: this status that they may or may not get depending

1097
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 10: on the individual. It's able to get a job, they

1098
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 10: have to wait like a year for it. So now

1099
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 10: the state has to provide for them because of the

1100
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 10: slow federal policy, and so that's making people more That's.

1101
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 2: Been a big long island staten island thing. Let's put

1102
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 2: the next one up here from CBS. So this was

1103
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 2: one of the few that had it just fifty forty nine,

1104
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 2: not just tied. But if you take a look at

1105
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 2: that battleground figure, we have it fifty fifty. I mean,

1106
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 2: so when we're talking here, logan like even also in

1107
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: your own models, and you're looking at those battlegrounds says,

1108
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 2: how do you suss out like the reality of a

1109
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 2: point three advantage or a point four or something like that,

1110
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: because it just seems so within the margin of error

1111
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: that it's difficult to you determine even with an average

1112
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 2: when we're talking about edges that are that small.

1113
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 10: Yeah, you're sure to have the edge, you know. We

1114
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 10: can look at hundreds to pass a long absolutely, yeah, yeah, yeah,

1115
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 10: there's a correlation. Even THO doesn't feel like there's anything.

1116
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 10: But the fundamental nature of this stuff is the assumptions

1117
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 10: that we make about the electorate. They're always going to

1118
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 10: be wrong in some way. We just don't know what

1119
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 10: parts if they're going to be wrong, right, So it's

1120
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 10: just like you a little more room to be wrong

1121
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 10: in one direction. If you have a point four lead,

1122
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 10: then you're down point four.

1123
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 1: Rightly, right, let's put a five up on the screen.

1124
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 1: This was a poll that I'm sure the Harris people

1125
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 1: were very happy to see. This was ABC IPSOS poll

1126
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,879
Speaker 1: of likely voters. It has Harris up at fifty one,

1127
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 1: Trump at forty seven. Greg Sargent opines here that it's

1128
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 1: better for her than other national polls finding a tie

1129
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: because she runs better among Latinos and blacks including men,

1130
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 1: then those other poles, while holding on to the same

1131
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 1: percentage of the white vote as Joe Biden.

1132
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 4: Per Ron Brownstein, This is the key. What do you

1133
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 4: make of this pole? And how real do you think

1134
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 4: that these shifts.

1135
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 1: That we've seen in other poles among black men, among

1136
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 1: Hispanic men in particular, Given that you do have some

1137
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 1: poles like this that really don't find any movement at all.

1138
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, if SOS has generally been more favorable

1139
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 10: for Harris this Cyclewar Times has generally been more conservative

1140
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 10: favorable for Trump, so that might be what's that play here.

1141
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 10: I think, ultimately the odds are that Trump has gained

1142
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,919
Speaker 10: in these polls. But in twenty twenty two, the polls

1143
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 10: were off by like a point and a half. Maybe

1144
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 10: the movement at the end was real. It just might

1145
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 10: have been Democrats outright leading and then it went to

1146
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 10: the slight Republican lead at the end. But there's no

1147
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 10: way to know this for sure because you only have

1148
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 10: one election. So maybe the polls two weeks ago and

1149
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 10: the movement was completely made up, which is hard to tell.

1150
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I mean, I know this can be frustrating,

1151
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 2: and let's continue to the next one. Nate Silver, he

1152
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 2: had a very good breakdown of actually each of the

1153
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 2: individual swing states. I wonder if we could put it,

1154
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 2: We'll put that tear sheet please up on the screen.

1155
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 2: But I was looking at his Wisconsin model, and if

1156
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,359
Speaker 2: we check Wisconsin, what he has in front of there

1157
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 2: is basically like a fifty three percent chance that Kamala

1158
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 2: would win THEO would win Wisconsin. But you were just

1159
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 2: saying that there has been some overall movement. You actually

1160
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 2: see there exactly what you said, our one point sixth

1161
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 2: advantage and a change from the last month. Is there

1162
00:51:56,360 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 2: anything from you can look at from his overall analysis

1163
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 2: and also maybe pair it with the early vote of

1164
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 2: some signs where things can differently go.

1165
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,719
Speaker 10: Yeah, there's been consistent Poule movement in Wisconsin. We thought

1166
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 10: it might be true for Michigan, but we got a

1167
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 10: bunch of high quality polls showing Hair still ahead by

1168
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 10: it modestly in Michigan. So I think Wisconsin's is one

1169
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 10: of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that I'm most worried about

1170
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 10: for Harris, that it's most likely to flip.

1171
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:24,839
Speaker 1: Interesting, So, for if you're the Harris campaign, what looks

1172
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 1: like your best path to two seventy And conversely, if

1173
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 1: you're the Trump campaign, what is your most likely path

1174
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:30,800
Speaker 1: to two seventy?

1175
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 10: Yeah, I still think for Harris it's the conventional Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

1176
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:36,360
Speaker 3: All plus Omaha.

1177
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 10: Yes, but North Carolina is so close right now that

1178
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 10: it easily could be the one that saves Harris, Like.

1179
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: If she loses Wisconsin but wins North she could win

1180
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 1: North Carolina and that would be enough for.

1181
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 10: And if she wins North Carolina and Nevada, which you know,

1182
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 10: I still think she's modestly favorite Nevado.

1183
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,839
Speaker 3: So you're still very bullish on Nevada. So let's talk

1184
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:56,879
Speaker 3: about that, much less so than my most last Okay,

1185
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 3: much last.

1186
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 2: Let's talk so because for everything I've seen right now,

1187
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 2: I guess the bowl case for Trump is you've got

1188
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 2: this like major Republican turnout. According to Joel Ralston, a

1189
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 2: huge percentage of the votes have actually already been cast to.

1190
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 3: The overall electorate.

1191
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 2: The bear case for Trump is that there's a big

1192
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 2: what is it other of people who are unidentified in party,

1193
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 2: and that that other demographic is disproportionately younger people who

1194
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 2: are most likely to vote Democrats. So the other category

1195
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 2: being so large could be skewing it. But you're still

1196
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:28,399
Speaker 2: less bullish, So tell us why.

1197
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 10: Yeah, because the early vote has not been good for them. Now, yeah,

1198
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:33,440
Speaker 10: some of that's not counting a lot of the mail

1199
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 10: in ballot that's going to be coming in, So maybe

1200
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 10: it's not as bad for them as we think Okay,

1201
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 10: the polling has been sort of good for Harris generally

1202
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 10: underrate STEM so that doesn't assily Kerry cycles in cycle

1203
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 10: in Nevada. In Nevada specifically it has up to this

1204
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 10: point anyway. Yeah, Yeah, I mean I think it's I

1205
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:51,840
Speaker 10: think the case for Trump stuff again and stronger. That

1206
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:53,720
Speaker 10: being said, I mean, if you look at Maryland, for example,

1207
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 10: I saw this great graphic from split Ticket this morning

1208
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:00,080
Speaker 10: the twenty twenty two election. You know, the breakout of

1209
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 10: like how Republicans did an early voting relative to twenty

1210
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 10: twenty suggested all sorts of good signs for them. No

1211
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 10: one really thought that Dan Cox was going to be

1212
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 10: Wes Moore in that.

1213
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 4: Race, but that's the governor's race.

1214
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 10: Governor. Yeah, thanks for saying that, So I and he

1215
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 10: ended up winning by like the same margin. I think

1216
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 10: that Joe Biden won Maryland and most exactly right, because

1217
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 10: it's just the makeup of election day was also really different.

1218
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 10: So this stuff is clused. But the makeup of the

1219
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 10: electric can change. How independent and swing voters vote can

1220
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 10: change as well.

1221
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 2: Okay, we were reading a little bit yesterday, Crystal and

1222
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 2: I at different states and how they vote, so I

1223
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 2: had no idea. For example, like ninety percent of Arizona

1224
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 2: votes or votes early. So maybe if you could just

1225
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,319
Speaker 2: tell the audience like which states were the early vote,

1226
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: maybe matters more. And then where also, like which states

1227
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 2: on the same day could be determinative, Like with the Maryland.

1228
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 10: Like you were saying, yeah, in Maryland, I mean saying

1229
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 10: that Maryland, I would say Nevada and Arizona, those are

1230
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 10: states you're going to see a lot more early voting.

1231
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 10: It's more important, you know, especially because Nevada has a

1232
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 10: lot of clonary workers who are show to get election

1233
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 10: day off so they try to get in early, right yeah.

1234
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 10: And Georgia has a strong early vote. But even there, right,

1235
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 10: like this is what it was the last few cycles,

1236
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 10: you might change. Democrats got the big bank of votes

1237
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,800
Speaker 10: early on. Republicans came in droves at the end. So

1238
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 10: I think for all of these states it's still going

1239
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 10: to be a factor, but it's more that you know

1240
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 10: each state by state.

1241
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 3: It's just hard to say.

1242
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:28,799
Speaker 10: Right now because we don't have a voting pattern long

1243
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,839
Speaker 10: enough post twenty twenty, when more people got ento early voting,

1244
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 10: right yeah, yeah.

1245
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 1: And the other thing is difficult is every state has

1246
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: different sequencing in terms of like is it just mail in,

1247
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 1: is it just early in person, which tends to be

1248
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 1: more Republican, And so I think that's part of what's

1249
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:47,720
Speaker 1: accounting for. Like, if you look at those Blue Wall states,

1250
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 1: you go, oh, that looks pretty good for Democrats. Then

1251
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:50,879
Speaker 1: you look at Novoda and you're like, oh, now it's

1252
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 1: terrible for Democrats. Part of it seems to be that

1253
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,879
Speaker 1: different states have different sequencing, different percentages of the vote

1254
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:58,800
Speaker 1: that are expected to come in early, et cetera.

1255
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 4: So can be very difficult.

1256
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 1: Like you said, especially post twenty twenty, we really don't

1257
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 1: have a model for this election, which is post COVID

1258
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 1: but not during COVID, and what the makeup.

1259
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 5: Is likely to look like.

1260
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I would say the general thing is right.

1261
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 10: Over the last two weeks served in positive signs for

1262
00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 10: Republicans an incredibly competitive phrase, but much like perhaps a

1263
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 10: lot of pundents were overreading the good signs for Kamala,

1264
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 10: the same thing is happening now. And I think it's

1265
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:25,959
Speaker 10: in part due to past experience of headaches twenty twenty

1266
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:28,879
Speaker 10: and twenty sixteen. If you don't love to be wrong,

1267
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 10: but I don't like to be wrong in the same

1268
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:31,799
Speaker 10: way twice or three times in a row.

1269
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 1: Well, that's a perfect segue and to the next conversation

1270
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:36,840
Speaker 1: we want to have about what has been kind of

1271
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 1: like an online debate among nerds and data geeks, et cetera.

1272
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,760
Speaker 4: Over whether or not the pollsters are quote unquote hurting.

1273
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:45,799
Speaker 1: This is going to be posted later in the week

1274
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: for everybody to take a look at as we head

1275
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:48,839
Speaker 1: into election day.

1276
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:51,400
Speaker 4: It's going to be posted today for premium subscribers.

1277
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: If you want to become a premium subscriber and here

1278
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 1: logan answer this incredibly important and interesting question, go.

1279
00:56:57,719 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 4: To Breakingpoints dot com. So get that right away. All right,

1280
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 4: let's pug back up this graphic.