WEBVTT - Will The US End The War Between Congo and Rwanda?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Democratic Republic of

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<v Speaker 1>Congo and Rwanda have agreed to bring an end to

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<v Speaker 1>conflict in the Eastern Congo, where millions of people have

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<v Speaker 1>died and multitudes have been displaced over the past three decades.

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<v Speaker 2>Today the violence and destruction comes to an end and

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<v Speaker 2>the entire region begins a new chapter of hope and opportunity, harmony,

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<v Speaker 2>prosperity and peace.

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<v Speaker 1>The US broker deal aims to bring a halt to fighting,

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<v Speaker 1>and the countries have committed to work together to develop

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<v Speaker 1>the natural resources that lie along their shared border.

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<v Speaker 3>If you stay on board, I think there are so

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<v Speaker 3>many perspectives that we can transform our partnerships through and

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<v Speaker 3>that can usher in an era of prosperity, of growth,

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<v Speaker 3>and of shared bilateral relationships.

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<v Speaker 4>Because this is a very rich region with the cross

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<v Speaker 4>border trade with thes, with the natural wealth.

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<v Speaker 5>So with the.

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<v Speaker 4>US standing by side by side to be the one

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<v Speaker 4>and DRC, we believe that we will achieve a long

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<v Speaker 4>time peace.

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<v Speaker 1>On today's podcast, we'll look at how this deal came

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<v Speaker 1>about and find out whether it has a chance of

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<v Speaker 1>succeeding against a long standing atmosphere of distrust between the neighbors.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Jennifer's Abasajap and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>bringing you one story each week from the continent driving

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<v Speaker 1>the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>can provide. Joining me to help unpack this deal is

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<v Speaker 1>our Congo reporter Michael Cavanaugh. Michael, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for coming on the podcast today. It's so nice to

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<v Speaker 1>speak with you because you have been in and out

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<v Speaker 1>of Congo for quite some time, so I've been wanting

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<v Speaker 1>to dissect this with you for quite a while.

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<v Speaker 6>How are you doing good. Thanks, It's an exciting moment

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<v Speaker 6>in Congress history.

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<v Speaker 1>We all, yeah, we all hope that that's a good

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<v Speaker 1>place to start. Let's just start maybe with the conflict itself.

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<v Speaker 1>This as many people who've been listening to the podcast

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<v Speaker 1>maybe do or don't know, this conflict has been going

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<v Speaker 1>on for decades. Maybe you can take us back to

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<v Speaker 1>the genesis of the conflict.

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<v Speaker 6>Really sure, it's a really complicated conflict, which is one

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<v Speaker 6>of the reasons why it's persisted for so long.

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<v Speaker 5>Right, and you know we're talking today.

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<v Speaker 6>Mostly about Rwanda and Congo, so we can trace the

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<v Speaker 6>origins of that conflict back to the nineteen ninety four

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<v Speaker 6>genocide in Rwanda.

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<v Speaker 5>There was a civil.

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<v Speaker 6>War going on in Rwanda that turned into a genocide

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<v Speaker 6>in nineteen ninety four against the Rwandan Tutsi population, the

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<v Speaker 6>minority population.

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<v Speaker 5>More than eight hundred thousand.

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<v Speaker 6>Maybe even more than a million Tutsis and moderate Hujoos

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<v Speaker 6>were killed during that time. The perpetrators of the genocide

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<v Speaker 6>led across the border into eastern Congo, and that completely

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<v Speaker 6>destabilized eastern Congo and it's really been destabilized ever since.

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<v Speaker 6>It turned into a civil war in Congo that overthrew

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<v Speaker 6>the dictator at the time, and it turned into wars

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<v Speaker 6>between Rwanda and Uganda, which is also a neighbor and Congo.

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<v Speaker 6>And over the years, Rwanda has continued to support proxy

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<v Speaker 6>rebel groups, armed groups in Eastern Congo, it says, to

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<v Speaker 6>protect itself and to continue to fight some of the

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<v Speaker 6>remnants of those perpetrators of the genocide, or people at

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<v Speaker 6>least with links to the perpetrators of the genocide. So,

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, that's really the origin of the conflict we're

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<v Speaker 6>seeing today. That, of course, it's also linked to a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of other conflicts in the region and the natural

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<v Speaker 6>resources and political power and things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>And Michael, you just brought up a number of different

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<v Speaker 1>other countries and maybe proxies that are potentially involved in

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<v Speaker 1>the fighting. Can you just outline who are the significant

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<v Speaker 1>players maybe that are involved that you think would be

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<v Speaker 1>helpful for listeners to know about.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, in some ways, you could talk about the

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<v Speaker 6>Congo conflict as involved in many many countries in the world.

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<v Speaker 6>Lots of different countries have had stakes over the years,

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<v Speaker 6>have tried to intervene through UN peacekeeping missions, through other

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<v Speaker 6>deployment of military, local African nations that have deployed local military.

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<v Speaker 6>But really, you know, I think the most important thing

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<v Speaker 6>to think about are the neighboring countries right of this

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<v Speaker 6>region which is called the Great Lakes Region, and there

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<v Speaker 6>you have Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and Congo. We'll just focus

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<v Speaker 6>on them. And Eastern Congo, as I said, has been

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<v Speaker 6>destabilized and because of that, there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 6>more than a hundred rebel groups, armed groups, I should say,

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<v Speaker 6>are active in that region. And again they're fighting over

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<v Speaker 6>ethnicity and power and local resources. But some of them

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<v Speaker 6>are also rebel groups that are opposing the governments.

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<v Speaker 5>Of Rwanda, of Uganda of Burundi.

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<v Speaker 6>And so because of that, those neighboring countries have had

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<v Speaker 6>a stake for a long time in Eastern Congo's stability

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<v Speaker 6>and they regularly intervene. All three countries have soldiers right

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<v Speaker 6>now in Eastern Congo. The thing is is that those

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<v Speaker 6>soldiers that end up in Eastern Congo often end up

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<v Speaker 6>in getting themselves involved in mineral smuggling or other resource

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<v Speaker 6>smuggling too, so that those three countries have economic connections

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<v Speaker 6>to Eastern Congo as well. So the conflict has many dimensions.

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<v Speaker 1>Which brings us to twenty twenty five. Earlier this year,

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<v Speaker 1>we had you on the podcast talking about in particular

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<v Speaker 1>the M twenty three rebel group taking over some of

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<v Speaker 1>the cities in Congo, which makes this recent peace deal

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<v Speaker 1>a bit surprising that we got here. Can you just

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the timeline of twenty twenty five and really

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<v Speaker 1>how we actually reached this peace steal.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, So the M twenty three is this another proxy

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<v Speaker 6>rebel group supported by Rwanda, even though Rwanda says they

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<v Speaker 6>deny it, but you know, they have said that their army,

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<v Speaker 6>the Rwanded army, has been taking defensive measures against the

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<v Speaker 6>instability and Eastern Congo. And we reported on a UN

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<v Speaker 6>experts report this week which says that the Rwanda's actually

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<v Speaker 6>straight up directed the M twenty three in Or earlier

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<v Speaker 6>this year to take over two of the main trading

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<v Speaker 6>hubs in Eastern Congo, cities of more than a million

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<v Speaker 6>people right on the border with Rwanda, and the M

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<v Speaker 6>twenty three invaded both these cities, took them over and

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<v Speaker 6>now controls a huge swath of Eastern Congo, some estimate

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<v Speaker 6>ten percent of the entire land area of Congo. And

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<v Speaker 6>Rwanda was directly involved in that. And you know, I

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<v Speaker 6>think the question to ask right now is really like

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<v Speaker 6>what does Rwanda want right? Does Rwanda want stability? Does

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<v Speaker 6>Rwanda want access to Eastern Congo's resources? Is Rwanda really

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<v Speaker 6>concerned with enemy rebel groups there? What does Rwanda want

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<v Speaker 6>to do with the M twenty three. And so what

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<v Speaker 6>we've seen now is that other international actors got involved,

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<v Speaker 6>because you know, technically this is a violation of Congo's sovereignty.

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<v Speaker 6>And so we've seen the AU get involved, We've seen

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<v Speaker 6>Angola get involved, We've seen the East African community, the

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<v Speaker 6>Southern African Development community, I mean dozens of multilateral groups,

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<v Speaker 6>kuttars involved, dozens of nations are involved trying to fix

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<v Speaker 6>this conflict that has been intractable. And yet Rwanda persists

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<v Speaker 6>along with the M twenty three at taking over land

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<v Speaker 6>and occupying this land. So we know that they must

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<v Speaker 6>have a reason.

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<v Speaker 1>And Michael, what does Rwanda say about their involvement in

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<v Speaker 1>the conflict.

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<v Speaker 5>Rowanda has continued to deny that it supports the M

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<v Speaker 5>twenty three. It says it's applying defensive measures, it's protecting itself.

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<v Speaker 5>Rowanda denies that it is trying.

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<v Speaker 6>To fight a war to overthrow the Congolese government, but

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<v Speaker 6>it does say that it has serious concerns about stability

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<v Speaker 6>in eastern Congo.

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<v Speaker 5>Now, what the Unit It.

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<v Speaker 6>States has decided is that if the US can get

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<v Speaker 6>involved in finding piece, you know, in conjunction with these

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<v Speaker 6>other actors, right, can we convince Rwanda, meaning can we

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<v Speaker 6>the United States convince Rwanda to lay down its weapons,

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<v Speaker 6>to pull back and maybe find a way to develop

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<v Speaker 6>the region together. And so this is this is the

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<v Speaker 6>theory behind this peace deal that they signed last week

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<v Speaker 6>the two countries with the United States as a witness.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it actually a peace steal though it's how do

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<v Speaker 1>how are we defining peace? I guess, Michael, right.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, we're not there yet, right.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, I think you know, we've I talk a

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<v Speaker 6>lot to all sides, and I would say the piece

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<v Speaker 6>is a process, and it's very much a process right here,

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<v Speaker 6>and it's going to be a long process, right. And

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<v Speaker 6>there are multiple steps to this process. The first is

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<v Speaker 6>just the signature and the agreement, right, create a framework.

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<v Speaker 6>The next is this piece agreement does not included agreement

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<v Speaker 6>with the M twenty three, so there's a separate There

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<v Speaker 6>are separate talks ongoing in Qatar with the M twenty

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<v Speaker 6>three with Congo and the M twenty five, and Rwanda

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<v Speaker 6>as part of this piece agreement in Washington, has agreed

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<v Speaker 6>to support that.

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<v Speaker 5>Right.

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<v Speaker 6>So that's a big deal or a big step, but

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<v Speaker 6>that has to be resolved. Then there is another armed

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<v Speaker 6>group that Rwanda has complained about for years. It's called

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<v Speaker 6>let's just call it the f deal are the Democratic

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<v Speaker 6>Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. That's a group that

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<v Speaker 6>has links to the perpetrators of the genocide in nineteen

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<v Speaker 6>ninety four, and Rwanda has always been worried about that group.

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<v Speaker 6>So Congo's has agreed to take steps to neutralize that group,

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<v Speaker 6>and then Rwanda is going to have to withdraw it's

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<v Speaker 6>what it caused, its defensive measures, and then we'll have

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<v Speaker 6>to see them twenty three lay down its weapons, and

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<v Speaker 6>then there'll have to be some kind of integration back

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<v Speaker 6>into the army or some kind of way to deal

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<v Speaker 6>with all these rebels who will have.

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<v Speaker 5>Laid down there are arms at all.

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<v Speaker 6>And then Congo needs to take over eastern Congo again

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<v Speaker 6>and the state needs to return. So you can see

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<v Speaker 6>there are a lot of steps, and the hope is

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<v Speaker 6>that there's so much. We've always talked about Congo as

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<v Speaker 6>the forgotten war, and I don't think you can call

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<v Speaker 6>it that anymore. We've got the US paying attention very

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<v Speaker 6>very closely, to the point where Donald Trump has brought

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<v Speaker 6>these foreign ministers into his oval office. He's going to

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<v Speaker 6>bring the presidents of both countries, hopefully if everything goes well,

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<v Speaker 6>into Washington this month. And then you have Culture involved,

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<v Speaker 6>and you have all these other countries that are trying

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<v Speaker 6>to bring an end to this conflict that's persisted for

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<v Speaker 6>so long. So you know, we'll see there's a lot

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<v Speaker 6>of attention to it, and the hope is maybe all

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<v Speaker 6>that attention could bring results that haven't come about in

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<v Speaker 6>the thirty years of this conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>And Michael, stick with us. We're going to take a

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<v Speaker 1>quick break, but when we come back, we'll look at

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<v Speaker 1>the role that the US might play, as you were

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<v Speaker 1>just speaking to there, and what the chances are that

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<v Speaker 1>this deal has of holding.

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<v Speaker 6>We'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome back, Congo Reporter Michael Kavanaugh is still with us.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about the peace deal between the DRC and

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<v Speaker 1>Rwanda that was signed in Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 5>Last week.

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<v Speaker 1>Michael, you were just outlining before we went to the break,

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<v Speaker 1>the US obviously played quite a big role in brokering

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<v Speaker 1>this deal. How much of a role will they play though,

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<v Speaker 1>in ensuring that it holds. You just mentioned that President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump did invite the presidents of both the DRC and

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<v Speaker 1>Rwanda to the White House. It remains to be seen

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<v Speaker 1>whether that actually happens. But do you, based on your sources,

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<v Speaker 1>is there discussion happening behind the scenes with the US

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<v Speaker 1>playing a big role in making sure that this remains intact.

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<v Speaker 6>When the m twenty three, with rwand and support took over,

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<v Speaker 6>those two main training comes in Eastern Congo. Earlier this year,

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<v Speaker 6>President Felix Jessicketty, the President of Congo, reached out to

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<v Speaker 6>the United States and proposed something that was based on

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<v Speaker 6>what he'd seen Donald Trump doing with Ukraine, which is

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<v Speaker 6>a minerals.

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<v Speaker 5>For security partnership.

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<v Speaker 6>Right, please support us in our fight against Rwanda, and

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<v Speaker 6>in exchange, you can have access to our mineral riches,

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<v Speaker 6>our natural resources. Congo is the biggest country in sub

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<v Speaker 6>center in Africa. It is one of the richest countries

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<v Speaker 6>in the world in terms of natural resources. And so

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<v Speaker 6>Congo has proposed that the United States get involved in

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<v Speaker 6>Eastern Congo, but in Congo in general. Congo is the

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<v Speaker 6>second biggest source of copper. It is the biggest source

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<v Speaker 6>of cobalt, which is in most electric vehicle batteries for example.

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.800
<v Speaker 6>It has gold, It has a mineral called tantalem which

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.160
<v Speaker 6>is in the capacitors and all of our portable electronics.

0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:46.440
<v Speaker 6>So it's an extremely rich place. And the thinking on

0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 6>the Congolese side and now on the United States side

0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.880
<v Speaker 6>is that if US companies and if the US government

0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:56.720
<v Speaker 6>mainly through the Development Finance Corporation the DFC, can invest

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 6>in Congo, then the US will have a stake in

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.840
<v Speaker 6>the game, and if the US has skin in the game,

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:06.680
<v Speaker 6>they are more likely to continue to pay attention to

0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:10.160
<v Speaker 6>the conflict there and care about stability and care about peace.

0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 6>So if they have a short term, medium term, and

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:16.320
<v Speaker 6>maybe even a long term investment in the region, then

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 6>maybe they'll make sure to hold all actors to account.

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:23.400
<v Speaker 1>And Michael, before we let you go, sentiment on the ground,

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 1>because you are one of the few who gets to

0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:30.320
<v Speaker 1>go in and out of the country. What's the feeling

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>like in Congo of this peace deal?

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:36.079
<v Speaker 6>Oh gosh, I mean, it's a cliche to say cautious optimism.

0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:40.160
<v Speaker 6>I think that I would say people don't trust Rwana

0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.959
<v Speaker 6>and Congo period and.

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 5>There's a lot of skepticism.

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.400
<v Speaker 6>That said, I think that this piece deal has brought

0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:51.840
<v Speaker 6>more legitimacy to the Congoi's government. There was a moment

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:53.719
<v Speaker 6>a couple of months ago where it looked like the

0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:55.880
<v Speaker 6>government would fall, that there would even be a coup,

0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.080
<v Speaker 6>you know, or that the N twenty three would even

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.600
<v Speaker 6>try to take over the country. This piece deal, you know,

0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 6>aligning with the United States has given presidents to getting

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 6>more legitimacy. It looks like there's going to be more

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:15.439
<v Speaker 6>investment in the country. So there's some optimism because of that.

0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:17.840
<v Speaker 6>But the next step is the twenty three piece deal.

0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:21.640
<v Speaker 6>Until we see that, you can't think of this PCO

0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:23.800
<v Speaker 6>ever holding right, and then you have to see the

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:27.480
<v Speaker 6>Conglese go after this this fdo R rebel group, and

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 6>then you have to see.

0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 5>The rewand and start to withdraw. And those are sort

0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 5>of the steps that we need to see over the

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:34.680
<v Speaker 5>next say three months.

0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.200
<v Speaker 6>But as the Conglese Foreign Minister said to me the

0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.400
<v Speaker 6>other day, she say, trust is still a long way off.

0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.120
<v Speaker 5>For now what we care about his accountability.

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 1>Michael Kavanaugh, thank you so much for joining us. Really

0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:48.840
<v Speaker 1>fantastic reporting, as always appreciated, and you can read all

0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 1>of Michael's reporting on the Piece deal on Bloomberg platforms.

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 1>Now here's some of the other stories we've been following

0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:02.080
<v Speaker 1>across the region this week. Nigeria's main opposition parties, which

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 1>have agreed to unite to contest twenty twenty seven elections

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 1>under the banner of the little known African Democratic Congress,

0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 1>appointed two interim leaders to steer preparations for their campaign,

0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 1>and African ride hailing startup move is close to raising

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 1>one point two billion dollars in a debt round that

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 1>will help it finance a rollout of an autonomous driving

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:29.120
<v Speaker 1>fleet with Alphabet's Waimo and expand in the US. People

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 1>familiar with the matter said, and you can follow these

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put

0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 1>a link to that in the show notes. This program

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 1>was produced by Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebio. Don't forget

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 1>to follow and review this show wherever you usually get

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 1>your podcasts. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always for listening.