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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Democratic Republic of

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Speaker 1: Congo and Rwanda have agreed to bring an end to

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Speaker 1: conflict in the Eastern Congo, where millions of people have

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Speaker 1: died and multitudes have been displaced over the past three decades.

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Speaker 2: Today the violence and destruction comes to an end and

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Speaker 2: the entire region begins a new chapter of hope and opportunity, harmony,

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Speaker 2: prosperity and peace.

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Speaker 1: The US broker deal aims to bring a halt to fighting,

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Speaker 1: and the countries have committed to work together to develop

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Speaker 1: the natural resources that lie along their shared border.

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Speaker 3: If you stay on board, I think there are so

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Speaker 3: many perspectives that we can transform our partnerships through and

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Speaker 3: that can usher in an era of prosperity, of growth,

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Speaker 3: and of shared bilateral relationships.

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Speaker 4: Because this is a very rich region with the cross

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Speaker 4: border trade with thes, with the natural wealth.

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Speaker 5: So with the.

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Speaker 4: US standing by side by side to be the one

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Speaker 4: and DRC, we believe that we will achieve a long

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Speaker 4: time peace.

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Speaker 1: On today's podcast, we'll look at how this deal came

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Speaker 1: about and find out whether it has a chance of

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Speaker 1: succeeding against a long standing atmosphere of distrust between the neighbors.

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Speaker 1: I'm Jennifer's Abasajap and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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Speaker 1: bringing you one story each week from the continent driving

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Speaker 1: the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: can provide. Joining me to help unpack this deal is

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Speaker 1: our Congo reporter Michael Cavanaugh. Michael, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for coming on the podcast today. It's so nice to

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Speaker 1: speak with you because you have been in and out

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Speaker 1: of Congo for quite some time, so I've been wanting

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Speaker 1: to dissect this with you for quite a while.

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Speaker 6: How are you doing good. Thanks, It's an exciting moment

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Speaker 6: in Congress history.

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Speaker 1: We all, yeah, we all hope that that's a good

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Speaker 1: place to start. Let's just start maybe with the conflict itself.

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Speaker 1: This as many people who've been listening to the podcast

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Speaker 1: maybe do or don't know, this conflict has been going

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Speaker 1: on for decades. Maybe you can take us back to

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Speaker 1: the genesis of the conflict.

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Speaker 6: Really sure, it's a really complicated conflict, which is one

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Speaker 6: of the reasons why it's persisted for so long.

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Speaker 5: Right, and you know we're talking today.

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Speaker 6: Mostly about Rwanda and Congo, so we can trace the

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Speaker 6: origins of that conflict back to the nineteen ninety four

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Speaker 6: genocide in Rwanda.

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Speaker 5: There was a civil.

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Speaker 6: War going on in Rwanda that turned into a genocide

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Speaker 6: in nineteen ninety four against the Rwandan Tutsi population, the

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Speaker 6: minority population.

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Speaker 5: More than eight hundred thousand.

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Speaker 6: Maybe even more than a million Tutsis and moderate Hujoos

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Speaker 6: were killed during that time. The perpetrators of the genocide

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Speaker 6: led across the border into eastern Congo, and that completely

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Speaker 6: destabilized eastern Congo and it's really been destabilized ever since.

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Speaker 6: It turned into a civil war in Congo that overthrew

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Speaker 6: the dictator at the time, and it turned into wars

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Speaker 6: between Rwanda and Uganda, which is also a neighbor and Congo.

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Speaker 6: And over the years, Rwanda has continued to support proxy

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Speaker 6: rebel groups, armed groups in Eastern Congo, it says, to

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Speaker 6: protect itself and to continue to fight some of the

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Speaker 6: remnants of those perpetrators of the genocide, or people at

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Speaker 6: least with links to the perpetrators of the genocide. So,

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Speaker 6: I mean, that's really the origin of the conflict we're

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Speaker 6: seeing today. That, of course, it's also linked to a

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Speaker 6: lot of other conflicts in the region and the natural

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Speaker 6: resources and political power and things like that.

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Speaker 1: And Michael, you just brought up a number of different

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Speaker 1: other countries and maybe proxies that are potentially involved in

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Speaker 1: the fighting. Can you just outline who are the significant

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Speaker 1: players maybe that are involved that you think would be

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Speaker 1: helpful for listeners to know about.

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Speaker 6: I mean, in some ways, you could talk about the

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Speaker 6: Congo conflict as involved in many many countries in the world.

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Speaker 6: Lots of different countries have had stakes over the years,

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Speaker 6: have tried to intervene through UN peacekeeping missions, through other

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Speaker 6: deployment of military, local African nations that have deployed local military.

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Speaker 6: But really, you know, I think the most important thing

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Speaker 6: to think about are the neighboring countries right of this

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Speaker 6: region which is called the Great Lakes Region, and there

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Speaker 6: you have Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and Congo. We'll just focus

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Speaker 6: on them. And Eastern Congo, as I said, has been

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Speaker 6: destabilized and because of that, there are a lot of

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Speaker 6: more than a hundred rebel groups, armed groups, I should say,

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Speaker 6: are active in that region. And again they're fighting over

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Speaker 6: ethnicity and power and local resources. But some of them

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Speaker 6: are also rebel groups that are opposing the governments.

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Speaker 5: Of Rwanda, of Uganda of Burundi.

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Speaker 6: And so because of that, those neighboring countries have had

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Speaker 6: a stake for a long time in Eastern Congo's stability

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Speaker 6: and they regularly intervene. All three countries have soldiers right

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Speaker 6: now in Eastern Congo. The thing is is that those

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Speaker 6: soldiers that end up in Eastern Congo often end up

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Speaker 6: in getting themselves involved in mineral smuggling or other resource

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Speaker 6: smuggling too, so that those three countries have economic connections

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Speaker 6: to Eastern Congo as well. So the conflict has many dimensions.

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Speaker 1: Which brings us to twenty twenty five. Earlier this year,

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Speaker 1: we had you on the podcast talking about in particular

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Speaker 1: the M twenty three rebel group taking over some of

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Speaker 1: the cities in Congo, which makes this recent peace deal

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Speaker 1: a bit surprising that we got here. Can you just

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Speaker 1: talk about the timeline of twenty twenty five and really

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Speaker 1: how we actually reached this peace steal.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So the M twenty three is this another proxy

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Speaker 6: rebel group supported by Rwanda, even though Rwanda says they

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Speaker 6: deny it, but you know, they have said that their army,

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Speaker 6: the Rwanded army, has been taking defensive measures against the

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Speaker 6: instability and Eastern Congo. And we reported on a UN

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Speaker 6: experts report this week which says that the Rwanda's actually

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Speaker 6: straight up directed the M twenty three in Or earlier

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Speaker 6: this year to take over two of the main trading

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Speaker 6: hubs in Eastern Congo, cities of more than a million

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Speaker 6: people right on the border with Rwanda, and the M

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Speaker 6: twenty three invaded both these cities, took them over and

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Speaker 6: now controls a huge swath of Eastern Congo, some estimate

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Speaker 6: ten percent of the entire land area of Congo. And

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Speaker 6: Rwanda was directly involved in that. And you know, I

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Speaker 6: think the question to ask right now is really like

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Speaker 6: what does Rwanda want right? Does Rwanda want stability? Does

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Speaker 6: Rwanda want access to Eastern Congo's resources? Is Rwanda really

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Speaker 6: concerned with enemy rebel groups there? What does Rwanda want

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Speaker 6: to do with the M twenty three. And so what

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Speaker 6: we've seen now is that other international actors got involved,

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Speaker 6: because you know, technically this is a violation of Congo's sovereignty.

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Speaker 6: And so we've seen the AU get involved, We've seen

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Speaker 6: Angola get involved, We've seen the East African community, the

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Speaker 6: Southern African Development community, I mean dozens of multilateral groups,

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Speaker 6: kuttars involved, dozens of nations are involved trying to fix

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Speaker 6: this conflict that has been intractable. And yet Rwanda persists

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Speaker 6: along with the M twenty three at taking over land

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Speaker 6: and occupying this land. So we know that they must

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Speaker 6: have a reason.

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Speaker 1: And Michael, what does Rwanda say about their involvement in

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Speaker 1: the conflict.

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Speaker 5: Rowanda has continued to deny that it supports the M

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Speaker 5: twenty three. It says it's applying defensive measures, it's protecting itself.

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Speaker 5: Rowanda denies that it is trying.

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Speaker 6: To fight a war to overthrow the Congolese government, but

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Speaker 6: it does say that it has serious concerns about stability

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Speaker 6: in eastern Congo.

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Speaker 5: Now, what the Unit It.

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Speaker 6: States has decided is that if the US can get

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Speaker 6: involved in finding piece, you know, in conjunction with these

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Speaker 6: other actors, right, can we convince Rwanda, meaning can we

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Speaker 6: the United States convince Rwanda to lay down its weapons,

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Speaker 6: to pull back and maybe find a way to develop

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Speaker 6: the region together. And so this is this is the

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Speaker 6: theory behind this peace deal that they signed last week

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Speaker 6: the two countries with the United States as a witness.

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Speaker 1: Is it actually a peace steal though it's how do

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Speaker 1: how are we defining peace? I guess, Michael, right.

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Speaker 5: Well, we're not there yet, right.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I think you know, we've I talk a

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Speaker 6: lot to all sides, and I would say the piece

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Speaker 6: is a process, and it's very much a process right here,

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Speaker 6: and it's going to be a long process, right. And

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Speaker 6: there are multiple steps to this process. The first is

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Speaker 6: just the signature and the agreement, right, create a framework.

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Speaker 6: The next is this piece agreement does not included agreement

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Speaker 6: with the M twenty three, so there's a separate There

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Speaker 6: are separate talks ongoing in Qatar with the M twenty

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Speaker 6: three with Congo and the M twenty five, and Rwanda

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Speaker 6: as part of this piece agreement in Washington, has agreed

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Speaker 6: to support that.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 6: So that's a big deal or a big step, but

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Speaker 6: that has to be resolved. Then there is another armed

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Speaker 6: group that Rwanda has complained about for years. It's called

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Speaker 6: let's just call it the f deal are the Democratic

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Speaker 6: Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. That's a group that

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Speaker 6: has links to the perpetrators of the genocide in nineteen

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Speaker 6: ninety four, and Rwanda has always been worried about that group.

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Speaker 6: So Congo's has agreed to take steps to neutralize that group,

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Speaker 6: and then Rwanda is going to have to withdraw it's

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Speaker 6: what it caused, its defensive measures, and then we'll have

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Speaker 6: to see them twenty three lay down its weapons, and

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Speaker 6: then there'll have to be some kind of integration back

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Speaker 6: into the army or some kind of way to deal

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Speaker 6: with all these rebels who will have.

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Speaker 5: Laid down there are arms at all.

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Speaker 6: And then Congo needs to take over eastern Congo again

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Speaker 6: and the state needs to return. So you can see

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Speaker 6: there are a lot of steps, and the hope is

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Speaker 6: that there's so much. We've always talked about Congo as

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Speaker 6: the forgotten war, and I don't think you can call

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Speaker 6: it that anymore. We've got the US paying attention very

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Speaker 6: very closely, to the point where Donald Trump has brought

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Speaker 6: these foreign ministers into his oval office. He's going to

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Speaker 6: bring the presidents of both countries, hopefully if everything goes well,

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Speaker 6: into Washington this month. And then you have Culture involved,

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Speaker 6: and you have all these other countries that are trying

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Speaker 6: to bring an end to this conflict that's persisted for

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Speaker 6: so long. So you know, we'll see there's a lot

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Speaker 6: of attention to it, and the hope is maybe all

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Speaker 6: that attention could bring results that haven't come about in

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Speaker 6: the thirty years of this conflict.

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Speaker 1: And Michael, stick with us. We're going to take a

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Speaker 1: quick break, but when we come back, we'll look at

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Speaker 1: the role that the US might play, as you were

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Speaker 1: just speaking to there, and what the chances are that

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Speaker 1: this deal has of holding.

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Speaker 6: We'll be right back.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back, Congo Reporter Michael Kavanaugh is still with us.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about the peace deal between the DRC and

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Speaker 1: Rwanda that was signed in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 5: Last week.

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Speaker 1: Michael, you were just outlining before we went to the break,

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Speaker 1: the US obviously played quite a big role in brokering

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Speaker 1: this deal. How much of a role will they play though,

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Speaker 1: in ensuring that it holds. You just mentioned that President

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Speaker 1: Trump did invite the presidents of both the DRC and

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Speaker 1: Rwanda to the White House. It remains to be seen

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Speaker 1: whether that actually happens. But do you, based on your sources,

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Speaker 1: is there discussion happening behind the scenes with the US

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Speaker 1: playing a big role in making sure that this remains intact.

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Speaker 6: When the m twenty three, with rwand and support took over,

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Speaker 6: those two main training comes in Eastern Congo. Earlier this year,

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Speaker 6: President Felix Jessicketty, the President of Congo, reached out to

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Speaker 6: the United States and proposed something that was based on

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Speaker 6: what he'd seen Donald Trump doing with Ukraine, which is

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Speaker 6: a minerals.

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Speaker 5: For security partnership.

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Speaker 6: Right, please support us in our fight against Rwanda, and

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Speaker 6: in exchange, you can have access to our mineral riches,

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Speaker 6: our natural resources. Congo is the biggest country in sub

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Speaker 6: center in Africa. It is one of the richest countries

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Speaker 6: in the world in terms of natural resources. And so

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Speaker 6: Congo has proposed that the United States get involved in

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Speaker 6: Eastern Congo, but in Congo in general. Congo is the

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Speaker 6: second biggest source of copper. It is the biggest source

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Speaker 6: of cobalt, which is in most electric vehicle batteries for example.

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Speaker 6: It has gold, It has a mineral called tantalem which

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Speaker 6: is in the capacitors and all of our portable electronics.

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Speaker 6: So it's an extremely rich place. And the thinking on

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Speaker 6: the Congolese side and now on the United States side

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Speaker 6: is that if US companies and if the US government

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Speaker 6: mainly through the Development Finance Corporation the DFC, can invest

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Speaker 6: in Congo, then the US will have a stake in

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Speaker 6: the game, and if the US has skin in the game,

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Speaker 6: they are more likely to continue to pay attention to

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Speaker 6: the conflict there and care about stability and care about peace.

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Speaker 6: So if they have a short term, medium term, and

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Speaker 6: maybe even a long term investment in the region, then

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Speaker 6: maybe they'll make sure to hold all actors to account.

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Speaker 1: And Michael, before we let you go, sentiment on the ground,

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Speaker 1: because you are one of the few who gets to

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Speaker 1: go in and out of the country. What's the feeling

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Speaker 1: like in Congo of this peace deal?

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Speaker 6: Oh gosh, I mean, it's a cliche to say cautious optimism.

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Speaker 6: I think that I would say people don't trust Rwana

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Speaker 6: and Congo period and.

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Speaker 5: There's a lot of skepticism.

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Speaker 6: That said, I think that this piece deal has brought

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Speaker 6: more legitimacy to the Congoi's government. There was a moment

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Speaker 6: a couple of months ago where it looked like the

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Speaker 6: government would fall, that there would even be a coup,

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Speaker 6: you know, or that the N twenty three would even

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Speaker 6: try to take over the country. This piece deal, you know,

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Speaker 6: aligning with the United States has given presidents to getting

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Speaker 6: more legitimacy. It looks like there's going to be more

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Speaker 6: investment in the country. So there's some optimism because of that.

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Speaker 6: But the next step is the twenty three piece deal.

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Speaker 6: Until we see that, you can't think of this PCO

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Speaker 6: ever holding right, and then you have to see the

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Speaker 6: Conglese go after this this fdo R rebel group, and

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Speaker 6: then you have to see.

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Speaker 5: The rewand and start to withdraw. And those are sort

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Speaker 5: of the steps that we need to see over the

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Speaker 5: next say three months.

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Speaker 6: But as the Conglese Foreign Minister said to me the

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Speaker 6: other day, she say, trust is still a long way off.

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Speaker 5: For now what we care about his accountability.

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Speaker 1: Michael Kavanaugh, thank you so much for joining us. Really

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Speaker 1: fantastic reporting, as always appreciated, and you can read all

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Speaker 1: of Michael's reporting on the Piece deal on Bloomberg platforms.

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Speaker 1: Now here's some of the other stories we've been following

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Speaker 1: across the region this week. Nigeria's main opposition parties, which

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Speaker 1: have agreed to unite to contest twenty twenty seven elections

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Speaker 1: under the banner of the little known African Democratic Congress,

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Speaker 1: appointed two interim leaders to steer preparations for their campaign,

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Speaker 1: and African ride hailing startup move is close to raising

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Speaker 1: one point two billion dollars in a debt round that

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Speaker 1: will help it finance a rollout of an autonomous driving

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Speaker 1: fleet with Alphabet's Waimo and expand in the US. People

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Speaker 1: familiar with the matter said, and you can follow these

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Speaker 1: stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put

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Speaker 1: a link to that in the show notes. This program

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Speaker 1: was produced by Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebio. Don't forget

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Speaker 1: to follow and review this show wherever you usually get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always for listening.