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Speaker 1: It's time to get inside the Giants Hut. That's Giants,

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Speaker 1: the Giants moubbul give me some job, part of the

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Speaker 1: Giants Podcast Network. Welcome to another edition of the Giants

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Speaker 1: Little Podcast, brought to you by Citizens, the official bank

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Speaker 1: of the Giants. I am John Schmelt. Today we're joined

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Speaker 1: by front of the program. He is with us at

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Speaker 1: the NFL Combine Indianapolis. Is Sam Brookhouse, who is with

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Speaker 1: SUMER Sports. Should I call you an analyst?

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Speaker 2: Sam?

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Speaker 1: What is your official title? I should have looked that

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Speaker 1: up before we started.

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Speaker 3: My official title is a Senior Data Scientists and so

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Speaker 3: basically what that means is I'm breaking down the stats,

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Speaker 3: I'm doing the research, and then I'm bringing it to

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Speaker 3: the people.

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Speaker 1: John's all right, so let's start here quarterback play. What's

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Speaker 1: your favorite big stat to look at that gives you

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Speaker 1: a good overarching feel for whether or not a quarterback

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Speaker 1: is playing well.

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Speaker 3: So this is a really interesting one, primarily because it's

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Speaker 3: very difficult to differentiate between what the quarterback is doing

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Speaker 3: and what the rest of the team is doing. Of course,

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Speaker 3: the quarterback does touch the ball every play, and so

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Speaker 3: when we're looking at things like expected points added per

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Speaker 3: play or per drop back, and what expected points ad

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Speaker 3: it is is, you know, you often think about a

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Speaker 3: player had three hundred yards, but three hundred yards doesn't

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Speaker 3: always mean the same thing if you're always in third

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Speaker 3: and fifteen and you're getting twelve yards and not getting

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Speaker 3: the first down. So it tries to put those things

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Speaker 3: in context. That's what expected points added does, and that

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Speaker 3: is kind of the crown jewel of offensive efficiency metrics

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Speaker 3: EPA per play. So as a result, when we look

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Speaker 3: at quarterbacks, that's typically the first metric we go and

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Speaker 3: look look at EPA per drop back, where a drop

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Speaker 3: back is a sack, a scramble, or an attempted pass.

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Speaker 3: The problem with that is you're going to notice a

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Speaker 3: lot of interesting names at the top of that. In particular,

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Speaker 3: the one who has come up time and time again

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Speaker 3: have been Jimmy Garoppolo back in the days when he

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Speaker 3: was in San Francisco and now brock Perty And so

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Speaker 3: there's a question of which how much we can differentiate

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Speaker 3: a player's EPA per play or EPA per drop back

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Speaker 3: from his coach, from his offensive line, from his wide receivers. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: it gives you a great description of how successful that

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Speaker 3: offense has been with the quarterback at the helm and.

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Speaker 1: Folks, if you haven't guessed it based off our first

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Speaker 1: question of this interview, this is gonna be very heavy

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Speaker 1: kind of where we are in the analytics world and

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Speaker 1: what are some of the best numbers to look at

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Speaker 1: in terms of this stuff. And so for fans that

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Speaker 1: are out there that want to find that find EPA

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Speaker 1: per drop back. I know there are some stuff from

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Speaker 1: paid services that we can get that. Is there a

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Speaker 1: place public with public availability information available where you can

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Speaker 1: find EPA play data? And my understanding is that the

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Speaker 1: EPA formula is also maybe a little bit different based

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Speaker 1: on where you're looking it up right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's correct. If you want to find EPA per play,

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Speaker 3: check us out at sumer sports dot com. You can

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Speaker 3: find it for free up there. We have going back

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Speaker 3: to twenty twenty two. I believe we'll be updating it

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Speaker 3: every single week this year alongside the NFL season. And

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Speaker 3: you're exactly right, John, it does change a little bit.

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Speaker 3: The core elements that it is adjusting for typically are

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Speaker 3: down in distance and time left on the clock. Those

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Speaker 3: are two really key ones because it provides that game state.

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Speaker 3: It tells you that context of a third and fifteen

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Speaker 3: or a gain of twelve on third and fifteen just

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Speaker 3: doesn't mean as much as a great pass on third

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Speaker 3: and five. And then you know, you look at other things.

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Speaker 3: Some people include weather something, people include other elements about

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Speaker 3: team strength, but the core is is just putting the

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Speaker 3: state of the game as it stands across football, across

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Speaker 3: history in the NFL, with down distance, time and the

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Speaker 3: amount that a team is down by, that's typically the

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Speaker 3: three core elements.

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Speaker 1: Now that makes sense, all right. Now, let's go to

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Speaker 1: a different quarterback metric that we talk about a lot,

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Speaker 1: and I think Giant fans will be focused on a

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Speaker 1: lot this year because of Russell Wilson and what he's

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Speaker 1: done over the course of his career. And that's the

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Speaker 1: idea of pressure in sacks. Now, I think we've all

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Speaker 1: figured out that sacks have a lot to do with

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Speaker 1: the quarterback. Pressure has more to do with the offensive

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Speaker 1: line than sacks do. But pressure is also a quarterback function.

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Speaker 1: So I guess my question for you, if you see

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Speaker 1: a quarterback is getting sacked a lot and pressured a lot,

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Speaker 1: what are some of the metrics you like you look

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Speaker 1: at to figure out all right, how much of this

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Speaker 1: is the quarterback, how much of this is the old line,

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Speaker 1: and how do you sort through all that?

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Speaker 3: So to sort through it, I want to break down

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Speaker 3: first the difference between a pressure and a sack, because

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Speaker 3: a sack is a result when that player's butt hits

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Speaker 3: the ground and the play stops.

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Speaker 2: It is a sack there is.

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Speaker 3: It's a completely objective observation, whereas a pressure can be

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Speaker 3: defined in a multitude of different ways. Charting services may

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Speaker 3: define it as when a player quote fuels the pressure

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Speaker 3: or when a player is disrupted.

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Speaker 2: That can mean a lot of things.

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Speaker 3: The way we like to do it in terms of

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Speaker 3: tracking data in terms of the NNGS is when there's

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Speaker 3: a high probability of a sack occurring. So there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of different definitions, but as long as you're consistent

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Speaker 3: in what that definition is, you kind of get the idea.

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Speaker 3: So there's a little bit of a uh fugaziness, I

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Speaker 3: don't want to call it a foo gazingness, but a

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Speaker 3: little bit of an unclear definition to what a pressure is.

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Speaker 3: But as long as it's consistent, it's basically fine, and

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Speaker 3: it typically will track directionally across definitions, and so the

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Speaker 3: key thing that we really like to look at. Number

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Speaker 3: one is pressure to sackrate. When a quarterback is pressured

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Speaker 3: and there is particularly early, which, like you said, is

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Speaker 3: typically blamed a little bit more on the offensive line

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Speaker 3: than it is on the quarterback. Given the quarterback hasn't

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Speaker 3: even dropped back within a second or two period, we

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Speaker 3: want to know how good he is at avoiding those

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Speaker 3: situations and avoiding the ground. And when it comes to

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Speaker 3: a player like Russell Wilson, for example, sacrate hasn't been

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Speaker 3: fantastic in his career and that's why it's going to

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Speaker 3: be something that's absolutely so key. But then you look

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Speaker 3: at a player like Jackson Dart as well. He was

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Speaker 3: more of a scrambler in college. He probably is going

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Speaker 3: to be a little bit more mobile given his age

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Speaker 3: and given the profile that he likes to, you know,

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Speaker 3: go to his first or second read and avoid the sack.

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Speaker 3: And given that sacks are immensely harmful to the expected

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Speaker 3: points in a draft, in a in a drive, it

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Speaker 3: causes a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Problems when those sacks come up.

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Speaker 3: So that's the key stat that we like to look at.

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Speaker 3: It's pretty sticky. It has around a fifty to sixty

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Speaker 3: percent correlation out of one hundred per year, which is

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Speaker 3: one of the better statistics across position groups in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: And as a result, it really gives us a sense

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Speaker 3: of what the quarterback actually does to avoid those massive

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Speaker 3: negative plays when he hits the ground on pass plays.

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Speaker 1: And you guys track that as well on sumer the

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Speaker 1: pressure sack ratio.

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Speaker 3: Yep, you can check out our pressure ratios and our

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Speaker 3: sack ratios on zeomer sports dot com.

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Speaker 1: And I guess give an idea and we're gonna have another.

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Speaker 1: We had another interview a week ago talking about this too.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, you know, we know how much turnovers can hurt,

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Speaker 1: and you know, turnover ratio is a huge, you know,

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Speaker 1: definer of who's going to win and lose games. But sacks, oftentimes,

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Speaker 1: while not as bad as turnovers, right, they really do

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Speaker 1: make it difficult to score points if you're getting sacked

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Speaker 1: a lot on a.

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Speaker 3: Drive, right, And you look at turnovers and you really

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Speaker 3: think about the nature of turnovers, and there is a

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Speaker 3: handoff necessarily between the offense and the defense, so.

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Speaker 2: As a result, like there has to be a.

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Speaker 3: Lot of variables in a turnover, and because of that,

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Speaker 3: they are a little harder to predict. So take, for example,

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Speaker 3: a player like Josh Allen two years ago, where he

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Speaker 3: was an MVP candidate but the team really wasn't that good.

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Speaker 3: He threw a lot of picks, but he was also

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Speaker 3: pushing the ball down the field a lot. There were

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Speaker 3: so many variables in that that it didn't necessarily kill

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen as much as it may a player who's

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Speaker 3: not as talented. But then you look at a player

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Speaker 3: like bo Nicks this year, who wasn't as talented, wasn't

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Speaker 3: really pushing the ball down the field and wasn't a

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Speaker 3: truly efficient passer in his rookie year, but avoided sacks

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Speaker 3: at an immensely good level. And that, basically because he

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Speaker 3: was not losing those massive chunks of yards, allowed the

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Speaker 3: offense of the Denver Broncos to kind of match the

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Speaker 3: excellence of the defense and ended up leading to them

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Speaker 3: becoming a pretty good team despite not having the most

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Speaker 3: efficient passing offense of all time. And so that's why

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Speaker 3: those key metrics like pressure to sack ratio, where bo

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Speaker 3: Nix is absolutely incredible a superstar despite not being a

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Speaker 3: necessary superstar in other descriptive metrics, makes such a big

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Speaker 3: difference because even though you may not be getting those

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Speaker 3: explosive plays, you may not be spreading the ball around,

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Speaker 3: you're just able to keep the chains and moving because

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Speaker 3: you're not getting those absolutely massive negative plays.

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Speaker 1: It reminds me of the four factors in the NBA, right,

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Speaker 1: if you don't turn it over, you win free throws,

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Speaker 1: you win offensive rebounds, you maximize your possessions, and you're

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Speaker 1: just eventually going to grind out more points because of

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Speaker 1: you kind of are just winning on the margins a little.

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Speaker 1: And I think that makes sense. What are some of

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Speaker 1: the red flag stats that you look for for a

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Speaker 1: quarterback where you know, you look at maybe the touchdown

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Speaker 1: interception ratio, completion rate, yards, those all look good as

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Speaker 1: siphone those we've talked about that you say, all right, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe there's something under the hood here that tells you

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Speaker 1: some bad things are happening that haven't shown up in

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Speaker 1: the basic stats yet that you think maybe some people

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Speaker 1: might overlook.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of times there's two ways to

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Speaker 3: kind of break down what a quarterback is doing. Is

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Speaker 3: he hitting those explosive plays or is he just keeping

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Speaker 3: the change moving? That that's kind of the EPA per

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Speaker 3: play does include the explosive plays and then success rate

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Speaker 3: whether a player is successful, And the best way to

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Speaker 3: explain that is, you start off on first and ten.

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Speaker 3: If you get about four to five yards on first down,

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Speaker 3: that's probably going to be a successful play. If you

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Speaker 3: get two to three yards and make it into a

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Speaker 3: third manageable, we'll consider that a successful play. And on

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Speaker 3: third and fourth down convert, we'll consider that an expected

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Speaker 3: we'll consider that a successful play. That's basically what EPA

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Speaker 3: is doing itself, given those considerations about down and distance.

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Speaker 3: But if you were able to accomplish that time over time,

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Speaker 3: that's really a signifier that you can be a consistent quarterback.

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Speaker 3: And so an offense, for example, that was led by

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes last year, we were able to get a

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Speaker 3: sense that even though it looked like Patrick Mahomes was

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Speaker 3: having a down year, that they were actually being very

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Speaker 3: consistent at keeping the downs moving, and that was a

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Speaker 3: green flag that he was probably good. Old Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 3: just maybe didn't have the weapons or the offensive line.

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Speaker 3: So when you flip that back to the other side,

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Speaker 3: a red flag would be if a player is hitting

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Speaker 3: a lot of explosive plays. Sure, that's great, but then

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Speaker 3: the success rate is not there. And a great example

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Speaker 3: of this is Sam Darnold last year, through the first

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Speaker 3: couple of games, where the Vikings looked like a true revelation,

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Speaker 3: and obviously they went on to win a ton of

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Speaker 3: games and make the playoffs, we had a sense that

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Speaker 3: maybe something had really changed, except that success rate was

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Speaker 3: not there. He was really nailing big variant plays. Obviously

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Speaker 3: you get Justin Jefferson and some of those really talented

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Speaker 3: guys down the way, but it ended up kind of

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Speaker 3: spiraling off at the end of the year. Why was

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Speaker 3: that he wasn't able to keep the chains moving. And

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Speaker 3: I think that was a massive, massive part of why

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Speaker 3: the Minnesota Vikings decided to go ahead and let him

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Speaker 3: go and not pay him the big bucks and go

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Speaker 3: with JJ McCarthy, even though it was a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a shakeup, is because they just didn't see that

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Speaker 3: level of play by play moving the chains, staying ahead

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Speaker 3: of the negative plays that they did that they expected

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Speaker 3: to with Sam Darnold going into this year, and I

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Speaker 3: think they think JJ McCarthy is going.

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Speaker 2: To be able to do a better job. But that's

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Speaker 2: a big red flag.

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Speaker 3: If a player is being really explosive but the success

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Speaker 3: rate is not there, particularly in the early season, that

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Speaker 3: success rate typically is going to catch up with you,

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Speaker 3: particularly as it is related to spreading the ball around

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Speaker 3: and taking big sacks.

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Speaker 1: Is that something to keep an eye for Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: as well, given his pensions for throwing those deep balls

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Speaker 1: down the sideline. He'll connect on a lot of those.

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Speaker 1: He will take some sacks as he sent over the

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Speaker 1: course of his career. So I imagine that's something if Giant

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Speaker 1: fans want to keep an eye on something, it's the

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Speaker 1: Giants offense's overall success rate compared to maybe some of

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Speaker 1: the other specific quarterback metrics.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's an excellent, excellent flag, and especially if

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Speaker 3: you start seeing kind of the success rate just drop,

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Speaker 3: particularly given that y'all do have an excellent deep ball

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Speaker 3: weapon in elite neighbors, and I could certainly see a

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Speaker 3: true connection forging as it kind of did with George

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Speaker 3: Pickens last year. With Russ in a Pittsburgh Steelers uniform,

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Speaker 3: you could see a massive epa for play, especially if

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Speaker 3: they get a couple of big wins, but his defenses

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Speaker 3: start adjusting, particularly if they're not able to get the

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Speaker 3: run game going. Even though I did like what Tyrone

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Speaker 3: Tracy did last year, that could really be a red

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Speaker 3: flag that it could be a similar trajectory as it

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Speaker 3: was in a Pittsburgh Steelers uniform where that defense really

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Speaker 3: struggled down.

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Speaker 1: The stretch, you know, in terms of overall offensive efficiency.

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Speaker 1: Ben Baldwin puts up this a lot over the course.

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Speaker 1: Theory updates it every week, and I don't remember the

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Speaker 1: exact name of the chart. You can correct me if

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Speaker 1: I get it wrong, where it's basically percentages of drives

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Speaker 1: that either end in points or and then a first

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Speaker 1: down conversion. He kind of has like this little bar graph.

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Speaker 1: Is that a good way to kind of judge the

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Speaker 1: consistency of a team in terms of I guess that's

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Speaker 1: measuring how often your drives either end then a punt

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Speaker 1: or turnover in which you're not really generating points, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think there's this idea of drive quality, which a

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Speaker 3: former colleague of ours who now works in the college

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Speaker 3: space named Parker Fleming also thought about a lot. And

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Speaker 3: basically it's like, how can I get an at bet?

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Speaker 3: Football is a game where you don't necessarily control as

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Speaker 3: an offense where you are getting the ball, you have

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Speaker 3: to rely on the defense and the special teams to

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Speaker 3: do that. That's why it's a true complimentary team game.

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Speaker 3: But once you get inside, you know your own forty

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Speaker 3: that's an at back and you've got to be able

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Speaker 3: to take advantage of that.

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Speaker 2: So for folks that like.

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Speaker 3: Baseball, think of those rates of quality drive metrics or

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Speaker 3: ability to convert a first down or ability to score

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Speaker 3: touchdown or get a field goal as an at bat,

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Speaker 3: and you want to have as high of a conversion

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Speaker 3: percentage of that as possible because even though your defense

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Speaker 3: may not be good, or even though you know your

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Speaker 3: special teams may struggle at any given point in time,

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Speaker 3: you may have your punter hurt your kick or hurt

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Speaker 3: anything like that, if your offense is really converting, much

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Speaker 3: like the Kansas City Chiefs as I talked about a

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Speaker 3: little bit earlier, that's probably a good sign that you're

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Speaker 3: going to be successful and at least be competitive in

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Speaker 3: a lot of these games.

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Speaker 1: And folks just don't understand too Sam was a linebacker

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Speaker 1: too late. He played so that he's not just some

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Speaker 1: guy in a room with a calculator just just donuts

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Speaker 1: say he's coming from here. And you know, it's funny

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Speaker 1: you bring that up, you know, because when you look

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Speaker 1: at you know, that type of drive quality stats, you

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Speaker 1: really you realize how limited your opportunities are in a

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Speaker 1: football game. And you know, two big metrics that I

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Speaker 1: know coaches are obsessed with an understand that we sold

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Speaker 1: is they do lead to winning and losing is third

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Speaker 1: down success and red zone success.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that those two very important metrics can

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Speaker 1: be very volatile. So can you talk about from a

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Speaker 1: math perspective and how you analyze the game, how those

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Speaker 1: two metrics can in one way be vitally important to

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Speaker 1: winning or losing, but also in another way be very

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Speaker 1: difficult to control from game to game as a team.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you bring it up. Football is a small

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Speaker 3: sample sized sport. You get a limited chance to knock

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Speaker 3: it out of the ballpark here, and you know, like

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Speaker 3: you said, as a former linebacker, as someone who had

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Speaker 3: to play both against the run and the pass, you

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Speaker 3: really get a sense of how limited those chances are

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Speaker 3: because you probably are going to have to cover a

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Speaker 3: slot receiver five six times a game. That's a small number,

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Speaker 3: but those five to six times a game are probably

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Speaker 3: going to make a big difference because that's a matchup

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Speaker 3: that the offense wants to take advantage of.

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Speaker 2: So moving a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Further into those third down and red zone attempts, yes

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Speaker 3: you have very few of them, and yes you want

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Speaker 3: to be really good at them, But the kind of

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Speaker 3: key there is is how long are those third downs?

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Speaker 3: Like that's kind of the hidden kind of mix there. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: once you get in the red zone it's twenty yards.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you know you can cut that down a little bit,

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Speaker 3: and you want to get as close to the goal

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Speaker 3: line as possible. But in particular, when it comes to

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Speaker 3: clutch offense or third down offense or conversion offenses, it's

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Speaker 3: really how you're doing on first and second down and

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Speaker 3: much Unfortunately, there's no better example than NFC East rival

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Speaker 3: Philadelphia Eagles. Sure they have a great clutch offense. You

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Speaker 3: know why because they get in third and fourth and

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Speaker 3: one every single time and just push, push on to

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Speaker 3: get it passed. That performance on first and second down

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Speaker 3: is why they are such a good conversion offense. And

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Speaker 3: that's typically what teams have kind of switched to being

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Speaker 3: now in the last three four years is instead of

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Speaker 3: looking at quarterbacks or looking at personnel offensive linemen that

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Speaker 3: are great clutch players. I want a team that can

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Speaker 3: get me in third and short every time, because the

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Speaker 3: numbers say that I can probably convert that with a

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Speaker 3: quarterback sneak with a halfback dive, with a little fullback

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Speaker 3: push or something like that, rather than having an old

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Speaker 3: school style quarterback who can consistently get me out of

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Speaker 3: third and five and third and sevens.

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Speaker 2: Huddle up, get in here. If you're lined up here,

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Speaker 2: you gotta go over the middle with at the score. Great.

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Speaker 2: How do we make that happen? I don't know, Bud Citizens,

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Speaker 2: does it makes sense of your money with Citizens? Official

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Speaker 2: Bank of Eli Manning?

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Speaker 1: No, I think that makes a lot of sense. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk a little about offensive line play, Sam. You

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Speaker 1: know you talk about pressure rates, they can be wonky.

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Speaker 1: There was a game last year where you know, I

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Speaker 1: got to call on Monday from somebody that yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: they had the Kevon Thibodeau for for zero pressures. Then

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Speaker 1: you look at the box score, he hit three quarterback

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Speaker 1: hits in the game. Right, So it just shows you how,

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Speaker 1: you know, depending if it's like PFF, which is someone

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Speaker 1: doing it manually by hand or next gen stats where

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Speaker 1: it's I think distance right from the dot to the

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Speaker 1: dot in terms of how far they are away, that's

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Speaker 1: going to register a pressure. And then you have time

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Speaker 1: to pressure too, right where if an offensive line allows

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Speaker 1: a pressure but the pressure happens at three point seven seconds,

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Speaker 1: that's probably not the offensive line's fault. So I to

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Speaker 1: go about really judging overall offensive line play in both

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Speaker 1: the pass and the run game, understanding there are so

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Speaker 1: many variables in some of these bigger statistics that we might.

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Speaker 3: Use so to kind of set the level here. Offensive

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Speaker 3: line is a strange wizardry. And I think if you

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Speaker 3: talk about those all great offensive line coaches, you know,

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Speaker 3: we have Bob Wiley of hard knocks fame set hut oh.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I should also mention you have

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Speaker 1: ESPN's past block win rate and you know one block winter, Like,

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Speaker 1: how did you figure that out?

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Speaker 3: Anyway, go ahead, right, It's it's very difficult to kind

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Speaker 3: of uncouple that wizardry because number one, all offensive line

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Speaker 3: is the first person who makes a move on any

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Speaker 3: part of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Jim Harball has a great quote in that.

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Speaker 3: You know, I want to invest an offensive lineman because

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Speaker 3: no one can help them much less has to help them,

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Speaker 3: and that's really the key. And moreover, they are all

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Speaker 3: working together in a common goal. You know, if you're

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Speaker 3: a wide receiver, you have a route, you have an

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Speaker 3: assignment you're trying to do that. Only does the offensive

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Speaker 3: line have to consider what the guard is doing if

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Speaker 3: I'm a tackle, or what the center is doing if

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Speaker 3: I'm a guard. So it's a little different. There's some wizardry.

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Speaker 3: It's very very hard to keep track of. But at

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Speaker 3: Sumer Sports we figured out a pretty good storytelling element

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Speaker 3: of the first two seconds. How big of a probability

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Speaker 3: is it that that quarterback is going to get dropped?

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Speaker 3: The second two seconds, so basically, once he's hit his

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Speaker 3: drop back, how important is what's going on there?

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Speaker 2: What does that mean?

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Speaker 3: And then finally we kind of chalk the past four

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Speaker 3: seconds up to the quarterback. Like you said, here's where

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Speaker 3: we found some really interesting insights. The Cincinnati Bingals give

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Speaker 3: up a lot of sacks, but they also have two

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Speaker 3: awesome wide receivers and a pretty good left tackle. Their

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Speaker 3: left tackle typically does very well when it comes to

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Speaker 3: the first two seconds, the middle two seconds, and then

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Speaker 3: after that he struggles a little bit, all the rest

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Speaker 3: of the line really struggles, and so what that tells

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Speaker 3: us is that, okay, outside of the left tackle position,

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Speaker 3: the offensive line isn't that great.

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Speaker 2: But also, Joe Burrow likes to hold the ball.

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Speaker 3: You have to analyze if that's a problem or not

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Speaker 3: given your offensive line, and we find that it's not

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Speaker 3: really that big of a problem because Jamar Chase and

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Speaker 3: t Higgins are excellent at route running and they're excellent

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Speaker 3: after the catch, and so you kind of add it

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Speaker 3: all together and their offensive line is probably doing what

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Speaker 3: it needs to do. They're just kind of trying to

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Speaker 3: get as much juice out of every single play and

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Speaker 3: sometimes that leads to a little bit more sacks. But

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Speaker 3: it's been very profitable for them given the talent of

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow and the wide receivers. Other teams could not

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Speaker 3: even remotely do that. And so that's kind of the

440
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,360
Speaker 3: story that we try to tell. It's very descriptive. Will

441
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: it tell us how teams are doing in the future.

442
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 3: Maybe not necessarily, but it helps us kind of peel

443
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 3: that onion of offensive line play, and especially when the

444
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,880
Speaker 3: run game is such a small distribution, you know, typically

445
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 3: on any given run play, you're not going to get

446
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 3: the most explosive play as compared to the pass game.

447
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 3: That's really what we want to hone into is how

448
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 3: the offensive line is doing in the first couple of seconds,

449
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,120
Speaker 3: in the middle couple of seconds, and then if they're

450
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 3: able to maintain through the quarterback scrambling or the quarterback

451
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,120
Speaker 3: holding the ball or the quarterback throwing the ball away.

452
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 3: That's kind of the story that we try to look at,

453
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 3: and we look at that mostly with tracking data. It's

454
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 3: very difficult to do on a play by play old

455
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: school box score basis.

456
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 1: Okay, now let's go to the run game part of it, right,

457
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 1: How do you separate offensive line run blocking with running

458
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: back success and vice versa.

459
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 3: So it's very difficult, mostly because it's extremely hard to

460
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 3: predict running back success in any given year. The running

461
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 3: back position is by far the hardest to predict, and

462
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 3: that's the reason why it's the lowest paid in the NFL,

463
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 3: because you never know who is going to be great

464
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: in any given year. Sa Kwon Barkley, for example, I

465
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 3: think it was a totally informed, logical decision to let

466
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 3: him go, but he gets behind an awesome offensive line

467
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, prior to contact.

468
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 2: He's doing very well.

469
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 3: So ironically, what we see is performance after contact tells

470
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 3: us a little bit about the running backs contribution versus

471
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 3: the offensive lines contribution. That's typically what we like to

472
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 3: see before or after contact. How are these players doing.

473
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 3: It's not the best by any means, because the run game,

474
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 3: just when it comes down to it, is not as

475
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 3: efficient as the passing game. And I know a lot

476
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 3: of people like to talk about hard nos football, old

477
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 3: school football, setting the tone being fed. And as a

478
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: former linebacker, I know for a fact that's true. It

479
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,640
Speaker 3: sucks when you're getting pounded for two three yards over

480
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 3: and over again. I still I played in the conference

481
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 3: with Army and Navy. I absolutely hated it going against

482
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 3: the triple option where they're just gaining three and four

483
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 3: yards and keeping it chugging along.

484
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 2: And it's tough to do.

485
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 3: But the reality of the situation, and if you've ever

486
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 3: attended a training camp practice or an All Star game

487
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: practice that is not full contact, you can see this.

488
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:30,959
Speaker 2: The running game is muddled up.

489
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 3: When those guys are not hitting the ground, you never

490
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: know if it's a good run or a bad run.

491
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 2: And the reason is is because that's really.

492
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: How it is.

493
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 3: Even when you are a full scale hitting it's difficult

494
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 3: to tell or predict when a player is going to

495
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: pop a big run, and as a result, the passing

496
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 3: game is just substantially more efficient, and as a result,

497
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 3: it's just very difficult to, you know, figure out what

498
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: the real difference maker is between your offensive line and

499
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 3: running back. I personally believe that it's a little easier

500
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 3: to tell if an offensive line is doing good, just

501
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 3: because you can sense when that running back is actually

502
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: getting hit in terms of yardage. So I would prefer

503
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 3: to invest in the offensive line rather than the running

504
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 3: back position, and the stats kind of bear that out

505
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 3: a little bit as well.

506
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: Are you a believer in the tackles broken per carry stats?

507
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 1: Because I feel like a lot of times those can

508
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: be a little wonky too, the same way you know,

509
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: some of the pressure stats can be a little wonky.

510
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: When you deep deep dive into the data. It's not

511
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's tough. It's tough to say.

512
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: Obviously, it's a great stat to show what a player

513
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: has done in a year, but it's not going to

514
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: tell you what he's going to do the next year,

515
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 3: and so.

516
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 2: I don't put a ton of.

517
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 3: Thought into those statistics of broken tackles per carry. Or

518
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: we have a statistic that we calculate at summer sports,

519
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: which is like tackle probability or the end of the

520
00:24:55,080 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 3: play probability negated over the course of a play. While

521
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 3: it is great to describe what happened on a play

522
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 3: and describe whether a running back deserves credit for that play,

523
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 3: it's just very difficult to discuss if a Nase Harris

524
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 3: who is now going to the Chargers is going to

525
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,719
Speaker 3: do the same thing that he did in a Steeler's uniform.

526
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: You've mentioned predictive stats a couple of times, which is

527
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: kind of the whole trick, right, if you're trying to

528
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 1: find a quality value free agent, you try to pinpoint

529
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 1: a couple of numbers, We're like, all right, well, maybe

530
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: this will end up translating. And even when you're drafting players, right,

531
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 1: what translates from college to the pros? For quarterbacks? I

532
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: know Warren Sharp is a is a big proponent of

533
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: looking at numbers on early downs from a clean pocket,

534
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: and that is something that is something that is consistent

535
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: from year to year for players. A lot of the time,

536
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 1: what are some of those predictive stats for quarterbacks when

537
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: you're trying to figure out, all, right, this is something

538
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 1: that's steady from year to year.

539
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 3: So typically when we're looking at quarterbacks, you can divide

540
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: it all up. And the problem is when you divide

541
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 3: it all up, you want to make sure you get

542
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 3: that big sample right. And so when you have you know,

543
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: first or third down, or when pressured clean pocket, you're

544
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 3: just limiting your sample size. It's a little hard to

545
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: get erroneous. There's a couple of things that we really

546
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: like to look at. Number One, like you mentioned on

547
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 3: a drop back, what that player actually wants to do

548
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: with that dropback is immensely predictive. And so a player

549
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: who scrambles a lot, he's gonna continue scrambling a lot.

550
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 3: We very rarely see a player not continue to scramble

551
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 3: a lot unless there's a massive, massive change in his

552
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 3: physical composition.

553
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott comes to mind.

554
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 3: For example, when he was back at Mississippi State, he

555
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 3: was more of a mobile guy, turned into more of a.

556
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 2: Pocket passer with the Dallas Cowboys.

557
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: But that's typically what I really like to understand is

558
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 3: when that player is dropping back, Are they scrambling? Are

559
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,959
Speaker 3: they throwing the ball away, which is very key as

560
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: compared to trying like Joe Burrow, like I discussed, to

561
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 3: stay in there and make a play. And then obviously

562
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 3: this step up from that is their efficiency or success

563
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 3: rate on those different types of plays. That's pretty predictive.

564
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 3: It's not the most predictive thing of all time, but

565
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 3: that's typically like how I want to get a sense

566
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 3: of a quarterback and how they will do in the future.

567
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 3: Is I know they're going to probably continue no matter

568
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: the coach, no matter the offensive line, no matter the team,

569
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 3: They're probably going to continue being themselves and what they

570
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 3: decide to.

571
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 2: Do, whether they decide to throw the ball, whether they

572
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: decide to.

573
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 3: Throw it away, whether they're allowing themselves to be pressured

574
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 3: a lot, whether they're scrambling outside of the pocket. That's

575
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 3: pretty sticky. That's pretty predictive. It'll tell us what that

576
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 3: player is doing. And then if they're doing any of

577
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 3: those core things well, I as a coach or as

578
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 3: a former player, would definitely encourage them to continue doing that.

579
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's jump the wide receiver yard per route run.

580
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: That's I think a pretty good universal number is that

581
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: are you on board with that in terms of an

582
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: overall way to look at a wide receiver's efficiency and

583
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 1: any other numbers that you think for wide receivers are

584
00:27:59,480 --> 00:27:59,959
Speaker 1: very important.

585
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 3: So wide receivers are the most predicted position on the

586
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 3: football field by far, and I'll include tight ends in

587
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: this as well, even though there's obviously that blocking element

588
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 3: which we can't quantify super well. But pass catchers are immensely,

589
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 3: immensely sticky, and I think this is the reason why,

590
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 3: because it shows up in the numbers. Target share is

591
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 3: one of my favorite statistics when it comes to fantasy,

592
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 3: when it comes to adding players, when it comes to

593
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: even adding collegiate players. Target share is the amount of

594
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 3: targets as compared to the total team targets when a

595
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: player is active in a game. Some of the leaders

596
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: in target share Molik Neighbors. Last year was a guy

597
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: who is just a target earner, Puka Nakua, And typically

598
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 3: these guys who are some of the best in the

599
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 3: league are excellent target earners and that shows up in target.

600
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 2: Share that sticks.

601
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 3: Basically, if they are going to continue to play a

602
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 3: lot of snaps, they are going to earn a similar

603
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 3: level of targets, so great outlook from elite neighbors there

604
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: for this year, and I think despite the quarterback change,

605
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: he is going to continue to have a near thirty

606
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 3: percent target share, which is amongst the highest in the league.

607
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 3: That's my expectation for this year because of that statistic.

608
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 3: You couple it with what you just said, John, yards

609
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 3: per route run, which is an efficiency metric, and if

610
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: you can have a high target share and an excellent

611
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: yards per route run, you are an elite receiver in

612
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: this league and you will continue as long as injuries

613
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 3: are not inhibiting how much you are playing. An interesting

614
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 3: test case of this, though, Marvin Mems, the kind of

615
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 3: gadget back wide receiver slot guy for the Denver Broncos,

616
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: played a lot of snaps, had an immensely high yards

617
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 3: per route run, but didn't have that level of target share.

618
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 3: That indicates to me that Sean Payton views him as

619
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,479
Speaker 3: a gadget guy. He views him as a guy who

620
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 3: can only win in certain situations screens and deep balls,

621
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: and thus if he starts to earn more target shar

622
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 3: as he continues throughout his career, he'll be an elite receiver.

623
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 3: But you kind of gotta have both because both are

624
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 3: very sticky and both really indicate how good a wide

625
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 3: receiver is.

626
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: If you want to know how to manage two minutes

627
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: of crunch time football, I'm your man.

628
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: But if you're wondering about a long term financial plan,

629
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 2: you should talk to Citizens.

630
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: Hey, I can also talk long care.

631
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 2: I'd like to learn about Amulli routine. Yes, I knew

632
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 2: I could help make sense of your money with Citizens.

633
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 1: Okay, let's jump over to Defense. But first I want

634
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: to remind people that the Giants Litle Podcast is brought

635
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: to you by Citizens, the official bank of the Giants,

636
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,959
Speaker 1: from game day celebrations to your everyday financial needs. Big

637
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: boo fans, and get the most out of every moment

638
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: with Citizens. Learn more at citizensbank dot com slash Giants.

639
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 1: And we're coming to you from the Hackensack and Mrity

640
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: Health podcast, so you know, keep getting better. Joined by

641
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: Sam Brookouse from Summer Sports. And you can find all

642
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: those stats, by the way, at Summer sports dot com.

643
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: I have it up in front of me. They're all listed,

644
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 1: they're sortable. It's really really handy. Go check that out Defense, Sam,

645
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: And then I want to get into some of the

646
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: technology stuff with the NSMAI stuff. What are some of

647
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 1: the things that are emerging about defense, which again I

648
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: think it's much more difficult to quantify beca is it

649
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 1: such an eleven person operation where it's hard to kind of,

650
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: you know, single anything out. But when you think about

651
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: defense as a former defender yourself, what are some of

652
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: the key metrics that you want to look at from

653
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 1: a team and individual perspective.

654
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 3: So the reason why we have found that defensive tackles

655
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: and defensive ends have become a premium position is because

656
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 3: very similar to wide receivers, they're just lower, very very

657
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 3: predictive in the rates at which they pressure the quarterback,

658
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 3: at the rates at which they run stuff. We can

659
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: pretty well quantify how good front level players are going

660
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 3: to be defensive tackles and defensive ends. A great example

661
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 3: of this is a player like Trey Hendrickson who had

662
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 3: a defensive Player of the Year level year last year

663
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 3: in terms of the sacks, but his pressures have remained

664
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 3: pretty much the same year after year after year, even

665
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 3: going back to his time in New Orleans, and that's

666
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 3: typically going to be the case is specifically for defensive tackles.

667
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: Given that defensive.

668
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 3: Tackles do have slightly specialized roles as compared to defensive

669
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 3: ends who may be dropping back, or outside linebackers who

670
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 3: may be dropping back. Speaking of linebackers, though, linebackers and

671
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: safeties are virtually impossible to predict how they're going to play,

672
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: and I think that's why you see players like Zach

673
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: Bond move from the New Orleans Saints to the Eagles

674
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 3: and all of a sudden become an All Pro player.

675
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 3: And I think that's why it's very hard to say

676
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 3: who some of the elite linebackers are in this league

677
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 3: outside of a guy like Fred Warner, Bobby o'carake, some

678
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 3: of those guys who have been well thought about for

679
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 3: multiple years. Because you have to play both the pass

680
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 3: and the run every single play, you never know what's

681
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 3: going to happen. You're relying on the offensive line and

682
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: the tight ends and the halfbacks to give you your keys,

683
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 3: and it's very difficult to quantify what they're even trying

684
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 3: to do at any given point in time unless you

685
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 3: are in that clubhouse.

686
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: And Sam, it's funny. It's funny you mentioned that with

687
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: the running backs. Same thing with safeties and linebackers. You

688
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: go watch an All Star game practice, you have no

689
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: idea who the good linebackers and safety are a SAT

690
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 1: after you walk after at one of those.

691
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 3: Practices, exactly one hundred percent, it's very, very difficult to tell.

692
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 3: And I think that's why as a kind of football

693
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 3: watching society, we lean towards these playmakers so much, and

694
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 3: in reality, sometimes you get guys that just do their

695
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 3: job and chug along, and those end up being some

696
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 3: really excellent players, some really core pieces on defenses, despite

697
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 3: players who are in particular safeties who make a ton

698
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: of plays being particularly a little volatile when it comes

699
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: to busting but maybe getting a pick here or there,

700
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 3: and then corners.

701
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: You know, I know PFF has tried to figure out

702
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 1: their coverage grades. It's something that I know they've struggled

703
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: trying to figure out, because you know, a lot of

704
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: times the guys with the best grades of the guys

705
00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: that get targeted a lot. A lot of times guys

706
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: get targeted a lot because because they'reletting guys get open,

707
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: and it's hard to credit somebody for covering their guy

708
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 1: and the quarterback doesn't throw in their direction. So where

709
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 1: we at in terms of trying to figure out some

710
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 1: type of metric for determining good corner play.

711
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, basically, the only thing that even remotely tracks year

712
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 3: over year is exactly what you said, targets per snap,

713
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 3: And so guys who are targeted, you know, it's nowhere

714
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: near on the.

715
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,399
Speaker 2: Other side of the ball where target share is so big.

716
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: But typically you know, when guys have targets on their

717
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 3: back on the defensive side and the offense SE's red,

718
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 3: they're going to go after them and that's going to

719
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 3: be the game plan.

720
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 2: The problem is is that cornerback is really the.

721
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 3: Only small, immensely small sample position on the field where

722
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 3: you know, a wide receiver the quarterback's making the decision

723
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 3: to target them, to where a cornerback, a guy like

724
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 3: Pat Surtan may get targeted like two or three times

725
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 3: a game for a sixteen to seventeen game season.

726
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: Now that's an indicat of how good he is.

727
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 3: But at the same time, maybe they're attacking via the

728
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 3: run game, maybe they're attacking via the screen game. And

729
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: because of that small sample, it's deeply, deeply difficult to

730
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 3: predict a year over year how these players are going

731
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 3: to do. I think this is probably one where the

732
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 3: eye does do kind of a better job than necessarily

733
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: the box score statistics when it comes to interceptions or

734
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 3: things like that.

735
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 1: All right, two things. Give me reality checks on these

736
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 1: two things. Then we'll head on to the technology port

737
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 1: or of this. Is there such thing as a defense

738
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: that's good at takeaways or is it so dependent on

739
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:38,439
Speaker 1: the offense making mistakes that that's impossible to even think

740
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: about correlating from year to year.

741
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 3: Correlating year to year as a data scientist, And this

742
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,879
Speaker 3: is where my mind starts splitting. I think it's very,

743
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 3: very difficult to be a team year over year that

744
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 3: just causes turnovers. However, my former player brain says, you

745
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 3: create your own luck. And so there are teams that

746
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 3: you know, really focus on punching the ball out. They

747
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 3: practice it as a skill. And so when you put

748
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: your positions, when you put your players in those positions,

749
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 3: then yeah, you probably are going to have more chances

750
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 3: if you take those chances.

751
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: Will those chances end up being turnovers? Maybe not so.

752
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 3: I think something that I'd love to chart moving forward

753
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 3: would be those opportunities there's punches on the balls, those

754
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 3: pass breakups, those abilities when it's just close enough but

755
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: you're exercising great technique as a former linebacker. But at

756
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: the same time, there's a lot of variables that have

757
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 3: to go into that. The offense has to be compliant,

758
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: and they really don't want to be compliant when it

759
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 3: comes to turning the ball over.

760
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 2: So I think it's very difficult. I'd reality check you

761
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 2: on that one.

762
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: Okay, number two. Is there such thing as a pass

763
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: rusher that's a better finisher than another pass rusher or

764
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 1: is it a product of what's going on behind him,

765
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 1: his other teammates on the defensive line, not giving the

766
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: quarterback escape routes just the way the whole defense is configured.

767
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 1: Or are there some pass rushers that, look, this guy

768
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: just gets sacks, it's not just pressures.

769
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 3: Now, that is an excellent question. I think on paper,

770
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 3: there is such thing as great finishers. There's guys that

771
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: just year over year over year have an excellent conversion rate.

772
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 3: Now that's very limited to the tippy tippy top of

773
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 3: the scale, and I think given schedule, given division, that

774
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,879
Speaker 3: could change in any given point of year, particularly because

775
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 3: you think of guys like Tom Brady, like Drew Brees,

776
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 3: they're getting the ball out quick. The reason they're getting

777
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 3: the ball out quick is because they don't want to

778
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 3: get hit by the cam Jordans of the world, or

779
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 3: they don't want to get hit by the shack Bearretts

780
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 3: of the world sticking in that NFC South from years ago.

781
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 3: So there are external elements. I do think that, you know,

782
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 3: tackling is a skill that you want to work on,

783
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 3: particularly as it comes. But on paper it's very difficult

784
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 3: to see. You know, a guy like Jared Verse, for example,

785
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 3: last year, who was excellent, he provided a lot of pressure,

786
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 3: he did a really good job, didn't show up in

787
00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 3: the sackcom I could definitely see him having a ten

788
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 3: plus sack year this year.

789
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: All right, and then you just run something up. So

790
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: I gotta ask you one other questions. One thing that

791
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: frustrates me when people just look at at numbers and

792
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 1: football is such a matchup based league. A lot of

793
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: times I don't think people take opponents into consideration when

794
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: they look at, you know, smaller sample sizes of stats

795
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 1: during a season. I'm gonna use Russell Wilson as an

796
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: example of this. They're like, yeah, you know, he was

797
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 1: doing great, the steers are doing great, but man teams

798
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 1: figured it out and they just collapsed at the end

799
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: of the year. And then I say, I'm not sure.

800
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 1: It could just be the fact that they played the

801
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: EA at Philly, at Baltimore home versus Kansas City, and

802
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 1: home versus the Bengals to close the year, and maybe

803
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 1: that has more to do with it than something else.

804
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 1: Is that something that you try to stress with people

805
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 1: that in the NFL, the quality of the opponent in

806
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: who you're playing has such an outward impact on effectiveness

807
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: of any player or even unit in a game that

808
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: you have to take that into consideration, especially when you're

809
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: looking at smaller sample sizes.

810
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 3: I think you do to a certain degree. And you

811
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 3: mentioned the Steelers. I was thinking about the Ravens last year.

812
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: You know, get off to a slow start, but Lamar

813
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 3: Jackson had an excellent EPA per play. They were one

814
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 3: of the best run stuffing defenses in the league. When

815
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 3: you have those key indicators despite having a really hard schedule,

816
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 3: probably indicates you're going to be a good team. Those

817
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 3: are those things that you want to look at early season.

818
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 1: Makes sense, makes sense? All right, Let's go to technology

819
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: really quick. You guys doing some awesome stuff at Suomer

820
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 1: and then we're going to have more conversations about this.

821
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 1: We're gonna have Sam Schwarzstein from Amazon who does their

822
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 1: you know, special broadcast, their their vision broadcast. We're gonna

823
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 1: talk more about that later in the month. But I

824
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: know you guys are doing great stuff over at SUMER

825
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: using AI to help football teams, coaches and gms do

826
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: their jobs. Talk about how that has kind of broken

827
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: through in the NFL and how you guys are using

828
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: it to not only help gms build rosters the best way,

829
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: but also in now helping coaches game plan.

830
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: Oh one hundred percent.

831
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 3: So I think you gotta like compare it to what

832
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: coaches used to do, because I think it's a misnomer

833
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 3: that football is not analytical game because coaches have been

834
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: doing the analytics by themselves, maybe not at the scale

835
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 3: we have.

836
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 2: For years and years and years, and that informs a

837
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 2: lot of what we do.

838
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 1: So Will Belichick, who's doing it for the Giants in

839
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: the eighties they.

840
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 3: Eight I got his dad's book over here about scouting,

841
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 3: and a lot of the stuff that he was doing

842
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,720
Speaker 3: was very analytically based. The issue in football is always

843
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 3: going to be sample and scale and what we do

844
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 3: at Summer Sports is all about increasing sample and doing

845
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 3: it at scale, and so we have an excellent artificial

846
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 3: intelligence team who is able to make readings on every

847
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 3: single millisecond of a play, every single millisecond, and compare

848
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 3: it to every single millisecond from the past, going back

849
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 3: years and years and years. What that allows us to

850
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 3: do is, rather than just the results of the play

851
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 3: which we've discussed today has so many variables, it allows

852
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 3: us to get a sense of the important geometries of football,

853
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 3: the important connections between the quarterback, the wide receiver, and

854
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 3: the offensive lineman. And as a result, it allows us

855
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 3: to predict basically at any point in the play, who

856
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 3: may be targeted, where the quarterback may go, if he's

857
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 3: going to make a first read throw, and many many

858
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 3: many other things, including just sheer results like sacks and tackles.

859
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: And also what the ideal decision should.

860
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 3: Be on that player exactly exactly, because, as you said,

861
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 3: when you can compare the result on a millisecond by

862
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 3: millisecond basis, you can identify when the best time to

863
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 3: throw the ball was, who the best person to throw

864
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 3: the ball was, and when you have those key insights

865
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 3: at scale and over a large sample, it allows for

866
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 3: better decision making, and more importantly, it allows for better coaching.

867
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 3: And that's kind and the place that I think we're

868
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 3: going that other people aren't necessarily going. I think in

869
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 3: football there's a lot of I just want to know

870
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 3: who the best players are. Well, this is a developmental game.

871
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,240
Speaker 3: You've got to develop those players.

872
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 2: And when you can go to the.

873
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: Film and break down the individual moments at which these

874
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 3: key events are occurring and which you know, you may

875
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 3: not see something, but in the history of football it's

876
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 3: been hit time and time again by the greats. That's

877
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 3: a key element that is key for coaching, key for development.

878
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 3: And that's really what we're trying to do here is

879
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,760
Speaker 3: join kind of that old school approach of watching film

880
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 3: and learning by watching the game with technology that allows

881
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 3: us to do that at a much bigger scale and

882
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 3: allows us to remember many, many, many more things.

883
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: And I got to imagine that the NFL is such

884
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 1: a copycap league. Everyone uses the same plays, right, Like

885
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 1: there are very few new plays in the National Football League.

886
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: You guys can probably figure out, like, all right, this

887
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 1: play works consistently, This is a good play, especially against

888
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 1: this specific coverage right right, this play maybe not effective. Well,

889
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 1: you know on this play, you put this motion into

890
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: this play, while it's going to make it better, you

891
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 1: take motion out of this play. Maybe that makes that

892
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 1: play better. Are you able to break it down to

893
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: that level of granularity?

894
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, that brings up an excellent point. I don't want

895
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 3: to be biased. I know I'm an old linebacker over here,

896
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 3: but it's so hard to figure out run versus pass. Obviously,

897
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, like once you get those keys, you

898
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 3: know it's going to be inside zone or outside zone.

899
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 3: There's only so many plays that can be ran. But

900
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 3: the key is understanding run versus pass, especially in a

901
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:39,279
Speaker 3: league which has moved substantially towards early down play action.

902
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 3: And that's why we've seen some of these offenses. Sean McVay,

903
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, some of these other guys be

904
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 3: immensely effective as offensive coordinating head coaches because they understand

905
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 3: the dynamics of the game. We're able to get a

906
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 3: reading immediately on run pass, and ironically, some of them

907
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 3: are quite surprising plays that you know with the with

908
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 3: the eye just given on that single play, you may

909
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 3: not have been able to identify why it's a pass.

910
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 2: But then when you go into the.

911
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: Data, you start noticing the splits are different. You start

912
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 3: noticing the tight end is aligning different a little differently,

913
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 3: the wide receiver is moving a little differently, and it's

914
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 3: that way across you know, teams and plays and systems,

915
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 3: and then you can kind of start to identify what

916
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 3: those early point keys are when you start mixing in

917
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:32,280
Speaker 3: the film with the identification of well, this actually, despite

918
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 3: being looking like a heavy run on third and four,

919
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 3: it actually is probably going to be a pass here.

920
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 1: And if you give that to your middle linebacker he

921
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 1: sees something with an early emotion or where the tight

922
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: ends aligned as another, you know, another half yard off

923
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 1: the tackle, where is he lined up that he can

924
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: call some type of adjustment and that could give the

925
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: defense a huge advantage.

926
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 3: One hundred percent. And it's all about scale here again.

927
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 3: You know, the Luke Keigleys of the world, the Tomorrow

928
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 3: Davis's of the world, they'll identify this, but they're going

929
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 3: to have to watch five days of film.

930
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: If we can get it to.

931
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 3: Them on day one, right, that allows them to uncover

932
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 3: all kinds of gyms about technique or about you know

933
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 3: how the player is dropping back, which we can't necessarily

934
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 3: do because right now it's basically just dots on a chessboard.

935
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 3: In terms of what we can actually track accurately, we're

936
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 3: working towards getting joint tracking and things like that that

937
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 3: allow us to do a lot more. But just think

938
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 3: of all the possibilities if you can get that insight

939
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: to them on day one of how much they can

940
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,240
Speaker 3: uncover using their excellent football brains.

941
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: I want to flip this back to the offense. I

942
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 1: would imagine now in a league where teams are doing

943
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 1: a lot of post snap coverage adjustments trying to disguise,

944
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 1: are you able to do the same thing for an

945
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 1: offense where based on defensive player movement, you can predict

946
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: what type of covers they're going to be in.

947
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that kind of comes into those geometries, and

948
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: that's something that we weren't able to do with track

949
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 3: without tracking data. You know, when we're just looking at

950
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 3: play by play box score, or even someone just denoting

951
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 3: cover three or cover four or something like that doesn't

952
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 3: really tell us a whole bunch. But when we have

953
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 3: millisecond by millisecond foot by foot tracking of the players,

954
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 3: the models start noticing patterns, and really that's I mean,

955
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 3: I mean it's literally called pattern matching when we're talking

956
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 3: about these things like wizard palms and all these different

957
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,439
Speaker 3: types of schemes. And so when you can pattern match

958
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 3: the pattern matching, it allows us to get a better

959
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: sense of what to look at, especially when it comes

960
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 3: from the quarterback position, the center position, and the running

961
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 3: back position. There's three key positions where you're trying to

962
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,280
Speaker 3: identify the tough parts of the defense.

963
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 1: That's interesting, and I imagine this is stuff that I

964
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 1: can't imagine. The NFL will never allow this on game

965
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: days right where you can get this data on game days,

966
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: have the coordinators have it upstairs, communicate it. I can't.

967
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 1: I mean, the NFL doesn't allow video right on the sidelines.

968
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 1: I doubt they'll allow on anything like this. So this

969
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: is more pre know, get it to them on Monday,

970
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: getting ready for the game type of stuff rather than

971
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: game day stuff.

972
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:08,320
Speaker 3: Correct precisely, I could foresee how the game could change.

973
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 3: Right now, the technology probably is not to the speed

974
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 3: the streaming speed where it could probably support that. Obviously

975
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 3: that's coming. We see the great improvements in how fast

976
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 3: AI is even as it pertains to like chat GPT

977
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 3: for example, and how fast you know, GPUs and computers

978
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 3: can really compute things and stream things. It's not quite

979
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 3: there yet. But really the basis of analytics, which was

980
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 3: you know, fundamentalized by John Berger who used to be

981
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 3: at the New York Giants, was the rule book itself,

982
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 3: and it's going to be similarly governed moving forward. The

983
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 3: rule book itself is going to allow or not allow

984
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 3: great innovations on a play by play basis as compared

985
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 3: to a prep basis.

986
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 1: All right, that's on field stuff. Anything else from a

987
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: tech perspective for coaches and players that you think we

988
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: should hit on before we talk about building real.

989
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 3: Quick well, I think it's just fascinating, particularly how the

990
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 3: consumer artificial intelligence you know, AI and stuff like that

991
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 3: is going to end up applying at some point to

992
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: the things that we're working on with great models. You know,

993
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 3: we have what they call multimodal models. The idea of

994
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: that is you type in something in natural language and

995
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 3: it can sort through photos and videos. I can imagine

996
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: coaches just getting that in their hands and absolutely loving it.

997
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 3: And that's what we're working on right now. We have

998
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 3: sumer brain, which will be beating during the season, and

999
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 3: I can't wait to see the great insights that we

1000
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 3: can reap from some of that stuff.

1001
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: So basically, a coach could say, all right, show me

1002
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,239
Speaker 1: all the video of a team starting in a two

1003
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 1: safety shell but playing you know, men to men with

1004
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 1: a robber and show me all those plays, so they

1005
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 1: could do something.

1006
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 2: Like that's that's what we're moving towards.

1007
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: John, Wow, that's crazy. That's really cool. All right. Finally,

1008
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 1: I know this is kind of touching back on some

1009
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 1: of the overall stats we talked out team building. How

1010
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 1: do you guys help assist teams in terms of utilizing

1011
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: cap space, trying to again predict what players are attack

1012
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: and free agency, what players to draft, and how is

1013
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 1: that kind of moving along.

1014
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's so interesting, John, particularly as you know

1015
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 3: we're in the preseason. We all want the games. Everyone's

1016
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 3: putting out lists of who we think is good and

1017
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 3: who we think is not good. And I think, particularly

1018
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 3: as it deals with some of these extensions of players

1019
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 3: holding out, when you look at the numbers versus what

1020
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 3: it seems like they want, there is typically going to

1021
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,479
Speaker 3: be a true difference between these guys who have held

1022
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:42,760
Speaker 3: out into the training camp season because frankly, the numbers

1023
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 3: just aren't there. Now, are there other things to consider?

1024
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 3: Team chemistry, leadership, the ability to fill a role, the

1025
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 3: things that the offense coordinator is asking them to do. Yes,

1026
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:57,760
Speaker 3: our goal is to provide those key metrics that identify

1027
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 3: predictively how that player is going to do and directly

1028
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 3: tie that into their compensation.

1029
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 2: So you look at a guy like Terry McLaurin who's holding.

1030
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 3: Out right now, it seems like he wants to be

1031
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 3: paid at a rate of one of the highest paid

1032
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 3: wide receivers in the league.

1033
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 2: His numbers just really don't support that right now.

1034
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 3: He's not necessarily a top five to ten guy, hasn't

1035
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,359
Speaker 3: been in his career in some of those target share,

1036
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:22,919
Speaker 3: yards per route run, etc.

1037
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:23,720
Speaker 2: Metrics.

1038
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 3: Obviously he has the All Pro, Obviously he's on ESPN's

1039
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 3: top ten list. But I think that's why there's such

1040
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 3: kind of a mismatch between what the commanders want to

1041
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 3: pay him and what Terry McLaurin wants to be paid,

1042
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 3: because when you get that All Pro designation, obviously that

1043
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 3: means you're one of the top four wide receivers in

1044
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,320
Speaker 3: the National Football League, but when the metrics don't necessarily

1045
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:47,800
Speaker 3: back it up, may indicate that it's more on Jaden

1046
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 3: Daniels or more on Cliff Kingsbury. And I think that's

1047
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 3: why we try to provide the best metrics both the

1048
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 3: agents to try to get their guys paid and also

1049
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 3: to teams to make sure that they're managing that cap properly.

1050
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: And this has been awesome. Tell the folks everything you're

1051
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: doing at suomer and know a lot of the stuff

1052
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 1: is you know, behind closed doors with teams that you do,

1053
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 1: but I know you're doing more public facing stuff. Podcast,

1054
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,799
Speaker 1: the website tell everybody everything they need to know about

1055
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: what Suomer's up to.

1056
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if you loved this discussion, you will love

1057
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,759
Speaker 3: our website during the season, and I know I use

1058
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 3: it every single day. So check out soomersports dot com,

1059
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 3: particularly as you're moving into the fantasy season. If you

1060
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 3: play fantasy football, you can find those target share yards

1061
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 3: per route runs, all very very good, hefty fantasy stats

1062
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 3: to latch onto for next year. I'm very big on

1063
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 3: Pookin Nakua this year as a result in my fantasy leagues,

1064
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 3: So go give those a look, and then we're coming

1065
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 3: back and maybe I think the twenty eighth is the

1066
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:46,720
Speaker 3: official day the Suomer Sports Show. Me and Lindsey Rhodes

1067
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 3: will be breaking down all kinds of insights like this,

1068
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 3: giving some hot takes about the season. And then John,

1069
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 3: I'm ready for these games, baby. I have Week zero

1070
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 3: on the college football season. There's a game in Ireland

1071
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,240
Speaker 3: and I just have circled because I just need some football.

1072
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 3: I'm super excited.

1073
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 1: Well, dude, what are we get in Texas Ohio State

1074
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 1: in August this year?

1075
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 2: Man?

1076
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 3: Week one in college football? Texas Ohio State, Clemson, LSU.

1077
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 3: I don't think it gets better than that. We come

1078
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 3: back to next week with some classic NFL football. Really

1079
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 3: seems like every team has some hope this year, which

1080
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 3: is exciting. That's not always the case. We have some

1081
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 3: teams with new quarterbacks, like the New York Giants Tennessee Titans,

1082
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 3: so it's just going to be a blast. I can't

1083
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 3: wait for the twenty twenty five season.

1084
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 1: Sam, always great talking to you, my friend.

1085
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 2: Appreciate the time, Thank you very much.

1086
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 1: That's the Giants of the Podcast, brought to you by Citizens,

1087
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 1: the Official Bank of the Giants from the Hackensack Marine

1088
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: Hill Podcast. You keep getting better. I'm john S joke

1089
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 1: for Sam. We'll see you next time. Everybody