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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, It's bowl season.

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Speaker 2: It's the most wonderful time. What's up the gener nation?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus podcast. This is

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Speaker 2: the Bowl Betting Preview, Part two. I'm stuck he enjoining

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Speaker 2: me as always fellow BBOC cost Colin Wilson. Today we

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Speaker 2: will cover three the three remaining college Football Playoff games

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Speaker 2: on Saturday, and then we'll cover the two bowl games

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Speaker 2: on Monday and the one on Tuesday. Six in total.

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Speaker 2: Do it hopefully about an hour if you missed. If

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Speaker 2: you listen to this prior to Friday and you want

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Speaker 2: to hear our thoughts on the first cultural PLAYFF game,

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Speaker 2: make sure you check out part one if you haven't

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Speaker 2: done so already. I'm looking seven and a half all

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Speaker 2: wiped out on Indiana.

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Speaker 1: It's open, yeah, where we're heading to six and a

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Speaker 1: half re fast. I try to set out a warning

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Speaker 1: to tweet to everybody. If you like Stucky's side in Indiana,

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Speaker 1: better go grab it. Same thing for me this morning

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Speaker 1: with the over looks like the over is now on

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Speaker 1: the move too, So I was. I said I'd wait.

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Speaker 1: Fifty one turned into fifty two and a half of

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Speaker 1: a couple of shops it was time to fire.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think if it gets the six and

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Speaker 2: a half, there would be I think there would be

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Speaker 2: people on Yeah, Notre Dame. So I think it'll settle

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Speaker 2: at seven. But I still like the users. All right,

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Speaker 2: but let's get to the three college football playoff games

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Speaker 2: on Saturday. Let's go in chronological order.

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Speaker 1: But perfectly is don't know.

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Speaker 3: We can finally play the game.

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Speaker 2: We'll start in Happy Valley between SMU and Penn State.

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Speaker 2: Penn State is an eight and a half point favorite

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Speaker 2: of total chicked up a bit from open to fifty

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Speaker 2: dy four. A lot of die bars in State College

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Speaker 2: worth checking out. Give a shout out to Sower's Harvest

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Speaker 2: Cafe if you want to get a breakfast or lunch

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Speaker 2: and get their pretzels there there. It's going to be cold,

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Speaker 2: which you would think is advantage Penn State. You know

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Speaker 2: SMU obviously a team from Texas. This is a game

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Speaker 2: I keep going back and forth on. I've had a

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Speaker 2: bet on every bowl. Well that's my plan, even if

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Speaker 2: I have to bet like a player prop. I haven't

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Speaker 2: bet bet anything on this game yet. I think this.

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Speaker 2: You know where I'm struggling is number one. I you

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Speaker 2: know that's you. They don't really have an efficient rushing

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Speaker 2: at die for Sharks means a very good running back,

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Speaker 2: good out of the backfield, but the offensive line has

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Speaker 2: weaknesses specifically at center left tackle. The really just haven't

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Speaker 2: been able to adequately replace the starters from last year.

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Speaker 2: And I think that I don't know if SMU is

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Speaker 2: gonna have a ton of success running the ball, but

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Speaker 2: I do think that their back end of their defense,

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Speaker 2: if you can start throwing on them and loosen up

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Speaker 2: the defense, then that's when Smith might have some success

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Speaker 2: running the ball. We saw that with USC right USC

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Speaker 2: was able to loosen them up. We saw it with Oregon.

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Speaker 2: Oregon had success moving the ball on Penn State and

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Speaker 2: even Ohio State to some extent. But Ken Jennings get

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Speaker 2: enough protection, that is, you know, his legs are gonna

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Speaker 2: be important here to buy time because I am worried

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Speaker 2: about SMU's offensive line holding up. And then the SMU defense.

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Speaker 2: I do believe in their run defense, which is important

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Speaker 2: against Penn State because I mean, their schedule soft, and

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Speaker 2: we saw Clemson score a bunch of points on them

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Speaker 2: where you have but they have like I mean, there

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Speaker 2: these are power for guys that most of them are

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Speaker 2: like used to be at Miami. Got good safeties too,

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Speaker 2: can come down and defend in the against the run

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Speaker 2: as well, where you have to attack SMU as their

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Speaker 2: corners will Ken Aller and more specifically, Kennedy's receivers win

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Speaker 2: those matchups because that's Penn State's weakness on offense is.

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Speaker 2: And you got to throw in the fact that they

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Speaker 2: have an injury at right tackle, which is weaken their

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Speaker 2: offensive line, but so Ken Penn State's receivers on the

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Speaker 2: outside take advantage of SMU's vulnerable area on their defense.

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Speaker 2: My numbers say Penn State, but I've been lower on

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Speaker 2: SMU than the market all year. Haven't quite gotten to

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Speaker 2: a bet here, So curious to see what you're seeing

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Speaker 2: and thinking.

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Speaker 1: I want Penn State. I think it's Penn State all

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Speaker 1: the way. I think what's holding me back is why

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Speaker 1: fire on an eight and a half or a nine? Right?

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Speaker 1: Why when we're in this dead zone? Why touch it?

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Speaker 1: If I can get an eight, that's great, If not,

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Speaker 1: I don't mind playing tend leading up the kick. And

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Speaker 1: there's just so much that I see. You mentioned the

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Speaker 1: SEMU offensive line, and you know The thing is is

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Speaker 1: you want to compare lineyards to rushing success rate and

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Speaker 1: stuff rate, and that will tell you if the offensive

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Speaker 1: line is doing their job. They're not. Their rushing success

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Speaker 1: rate is better than their line yards, it's better than

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Speaker 1: their stuff rate, and that means that Burchard Smith is

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Speaker 1: doing all the work. I mean, if you watch the

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Speaker 1: highlight reels of him busting plays, there are defenders, especially

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Speaker 1: Clemson last week in the ACC Championship, where the defenders

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Speaker 1: are in the backfield and he has to juke all

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Speaker 1: over the place to get free. So you know, the

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Speaker 1: offensive line is you know, ninetieth in line yards, Smith

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Speaker 1: seventy one first down runs, twenty explosives. It's all high

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Speaker 1: light yards. It's all been him. So what you have

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Speaker 1: to do is look at the Penn State d a

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Speaker 1: fifty five percent success rate against inside zone but one

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Speaker 1: of the best EPA numbers in the nation. And this

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Speaker 1: I just cannot believe. The Nidney Lyons have allowed one

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Speaker 1: of every twenty inside zone attempts to go for an

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Speaker 1: explosive play. And if that's all Berchhard Smith is going

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Speaker 1: to run, they're going to have to pivot to another

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Speaker 1: run concept that they're not comfortable with. It's also worth

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Speaker 1: mentioning on this side of the ball, sm you just

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Speaker 1: can't play clean on offense. They're eighty third in offensive

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Speaker 1: momentum killer. That goes to a fact that they're one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty first some penalties this season. They can't

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Speaker 1: get out of their own way on offense. When you

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Speaker 1: go to the other side of the ball, it looks

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Speaker 1: even better for Penn State. And I think I went

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Speaker 1: into this wormhole of is Tyler Warren going to be

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Speaker 1: a factor in this game? Clemson targeted SMU with a

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Speaker 1: tight end eight times five catches. Virginia hit the tight

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Speaker 1: end like uncharacteristically five targets five catches. Boston College targeted

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Speaker 1: two tight ends sixteen times for twelve catches. There's something

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Speaker 1: in the film that is driving teams to hit tight

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Speaker 1: ends against SMU. And you what are you going to

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Speaker 1: do with Tyler Warren. Nobody knows how to stop Tyler Warren.

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Speaker 1: So if cotal Nikki will get out of whatever was

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Speaker 1: going on with Ohio State and say, yeah, we need

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Speaker 1: to utilize Tyler Warren here, then let's get it going.

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Speaker 1: And then from a running perspective, you know, outside zone

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Speaker 1: is going to come up with Nick Singleton. We've talked

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Speaker 1: a billion times about how his yards after first contact

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Speaker 1: are increasing game by game, five point seven yards after

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Speaker 1: first contact against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship.

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Speaker 1: And then finally, the one stat that I just can't

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Speaker 1: get over is Drew Aller ready for the NFL that

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Speaker 1: answers yes, and one hundred and thirteen dropbacks with pressure

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Speaker 1: this year, zero turnover worthy plays, and the strength of

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Speaker 1: this SMU defense has been a pass rush. So even

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Speaker 1: if you're getting to Drew Aler, he does not make mistakes.

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Speaker 1: He I mean, there's a reason. It's like somebody tweeted

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Speaker 1: at me, I think stuck, and they were like, is

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Speaker 1: he going to stay at Penn State? He's like the

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Speaker 1: fourth best odds to be the number one pick. There's

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Speaker 1: no freaking ways he's not going to the NFL.

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Speaker 2: So there is he's staying, He's staying on well.

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Speaker 1: And then finally SMU is forty eighth then creating contested catches.

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Speaker 1: I just don't I just don't see it, and Drew

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Speaker 1: Aller's fifteenth on target. I see so many advantages both

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Speaker 1: sides of the ball for Penn State. Here and I

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Speaker 1: think we'll go small game James against what a team

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Speaker 1: full of Miami transfers. How does Miami do when they

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Speaker 1: play in the Penn State. I'm sorry, when they play

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Speaker 1: in the pin Stripe Bowl doesn't usually go very well.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's a really great angle. But still

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a narrative that could be floating out there.

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Speaker 1: So Penn State all the way for me, I'm just

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Speaker 1: waiting for it to get out of a dead zone.

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Speaker 2: High lean Penn State as well.

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Speaker 1: So we've got a lot of work to do, and

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Speaker 1: we got tremendous challenges.

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Speaker 2: I'll probably be on them in some form or fashion.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, Aler, I'm surprised because even if you don't

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Speaker 2: believe in the guy, he's like a will left Steve

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Speaker 2: got the combine, he has all the skills, can make

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Speaker 2: all the throws. He's gonna wow the scouts and get drafted.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, he announced he's coming back. But that's all

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Speaker 2: you can make so much money. He's got guys like

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Speaker 2: Matier and Arnold making like three four million brock Perdy's made.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna make four million total over his first four

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Speaker 2: years in his contract. No granted, he was drafted late,

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Speaker 2: but different story. With some of the money you can make, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that is worth mentioning Their backup, oh Pabula is in

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Speaker 2: the portal, just like SMU's backup Preston Stone and Ohio

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Speaker 2: State's back up Devin Brown. But those two will stay

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Speaker 2: with their team. Pabula will not. And they do use him,

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Speaker 2: so they use them in short yardage packages and other things.

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Speaker 2: So I'm sure he just didn't want over skin injury

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Speaker 2: and trying to go get his own bag somewhere else.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go onto the second game for Eastern

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Speaker 2: on TNT. It's a great day of football. Got two

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Speaker 2: you got Braven Steelers mixed in and Chiefs Texans with

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Speaker 2: three college wable playoff games. Great day of football. Clemson

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Speaker 2: at Texas, Texas sitting. Let's see where this line is

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Speaker 2: at currently twelve point favorites, total fifty one and a half.

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Speaker 2: You're down in Austin. You want to go drink, just

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Speaker 2: go to West six, but Ucchi Sushi. If you want

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Speaker 2: some sushi, go to Ucci. I like my numbers, really

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Speaker 2: like Texas here. I think Texas blows them out. I

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Speaker 2: shouldn't say blows them out, but I think they. I

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Speaker 2: guess there'll be a blot one by two touchdowns or more.

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Speaker 2: I mean Clemson, if you look this year, there's just

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Speaker 2: the talent discrepancy between these two teams is massive, and

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Speaker 2: part of that is Clemson doesn't hit the portal. But

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Speaker 2: if you look when Clemson ever stepped up in class

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Speaker 2: this year, it didn't really go well and they had

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Speaker 2: a pretty soft schedule. I know that they beat SMU,

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Speaker 2: but they were outplayed in that game. I think even

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Speaker 2: though they did have a big lead, they lost to

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Speaker 2: Louisville at home, and they got blown out by Georgia

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Speaker 2: after you know, a close first half.

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Speaker 1: To win consistently is almost impossible.

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Speaker 4: It's really really, really, really really really hard to be consistent.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be able to run the

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Speaker 2: ball here, and film offf is dealing with some injuries,

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Speaker 2: and Texas d is kind of like built to stop

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Speaker 2: their offense. And I think Texas gonna be able to

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Speaker 2: get the run game going, and that's going to set

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Speaker 2: up all the easy RPO passes, all the screens that

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Speaker 2: Sark will have the biggest difference in this game. For me,

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Speaker 2: when you're watching it is going to be the offensive lines.

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Speaker 2: The Texas offensive line, which should get Banks back at

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Speaker 2: left tackle, is probably arguably the best offensive line in

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Speaker 2: all of college football. Their offensive line is dominant. The

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Speaker 2: Clemson offensive line has issues. So I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to enable Texas to get the run game going eat

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Speaker 2: more easily. Excuse me. It's going to allow Texas to

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Speaker 2: get their run game going more easily than Clemson. And

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Speaker 2: it's going to mean that they have easier third downs.

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Speaker 2: They're not going to be under Yours isn't gonna be

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Speaker 2: under pressure as much, and maybe yours looks a little

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Speaker 2: healthier now dealing with that ankle injuries, had a couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks off, And will you see arch packages here?

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Speaker 2: That's very interesting because Texas's path is so easy. How

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Speaker 2: much do you show the arch packages? So I'm curios

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Speaker 2: to see, like, do you just unleash them right away

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Speaker 2: because they were in the collable playoff? Or do you

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Speaker 2: wait and say we have we're gonna have we're gonna

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Speaker 2: be double digit favorites and double and then we'll s

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Speaker 2: wait to the semis. But I think Archie, you know,

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Speaker 2: his running ability in that offense is a better fit overall.

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Speaker 2: What scares me is three areas the red zone for

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Speaker 2: Texas special teams and then viewers making a dumb throw

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Speaker 2: or two because it's not easy to cover basically, even

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Speaker 2: the one by fourteen or more, it's not easy to

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Speaker 2: do that. If you're settling for field goals, you give

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Speaker 2: the ball away once or twice on a dumb throw,

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Speaker 2: and then you're I have botched special teams place. It's

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Speaker 2: not easy to do. Dabo will play the which is

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Speaker 2: which is scary, and I respect it. Whole play is.

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Speaker 2: No one's given us a chance card. He's been good

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Speaker 2: as an underdog, but the talent differential in this game

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Speaker 2: I think is just too much. This Clempson team, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm happy they got here for my futures, but they

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Speaker 2: needed Miami to lose to Syracuse to get here, and

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Speaker 2: I just think they're going to be overmatched. Just as

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Speaker 2: long as Texas can score touchdowns on the red zone,

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Speaker 2: not mess up on special teams, and then just youers

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Speaker 2: doesn't make a boneut and throw. I think this is

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Speaker 2: Texas by fourteen plus.

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Speaker 1: Got that bord around.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 1: Let's have a conversation here. You can have all your

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Speaker 1: opinions that you want, right I don't know how old

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Speaker 1: you are, but let me tell you something. You're part

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Speaker 1: of the problem. It's people like you. The expectation is

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Speaker 1: greater than the appreciation, and that's the problem. My number

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Speaker 1: is fourteen and a half. I wanted Texas pretty bad.

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Speaker 1: It opened up one eleven, and I believe I was

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Speaker 1: tweeting out like that's gonna move. Then a deep dive

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Speaker 1: of this game and I started seeing things where Clemson

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Speaker 1: can potentially expose Texas. Let's start on the offensive side

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Speaker 1: of the ball, the rush of the tad to head.

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Speaker 1: I think we we're gonna have to discuss number here,

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Speaker 1: right because I mean, there's a twelve and a half

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Speaker 1: out there at one of the sharper books in the world.

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Speaker 1: I think the amount of public steam and parlay cards

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Speaker 1: on these three games for favorites is going to get

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Speaker 1: me the thirteen that I won on this game. But

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Speaker 1: we'll get there here in a minute. The rushing attack

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Speaker 1: for Clemson was horrific in the a SEC Championship. I'm

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Speaker 1: not even gonna go over the numbers. They were bad.

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Speaker 1: MafA and clubneck completely neutralized. What saved the day was

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Speaker 1: the passing and freshman Bryant Westco finally busted out. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a guy that was up there in the

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Speaker 1: recruiting class with Ryan Williams, Jeremiah Smith. You know, he

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Speaker 1: busts out. He has eight catches on eleven targets, two tds.

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Speaker 1: Jake Brenningstool was just crazy good in money downs and

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Speaker 1: four catches on eight targets two tds. So Clemson, I

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Speaker 1: think we's so.

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Speaker 2: I do agree. It is arguably the key to this game,

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Speaker 2: because I don't think they're gona have much sucess running it. Club.

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Speaker 2: Nick just has to plean. He's been playing well this year.

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Speaker 1: It's got to have the game.

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Speaker 2: Of his life. He's got to use his legs when warranted,

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Speaker 2: and these receivers got to make plays downfield. He throws

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Speaker 2: a great deep ball. They got to hit some explosives

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Speaker 2: in Westco. Needs to be a big part of that club.

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Speaker 1: Nick's numbers have very much improved from a pressured pocket

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Speaker 1: turnover worthy play perspective twelve to five big time throw

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Speaker 1: turnover worthy play. He really has turned down the mistakes.

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Speaker 1: Texas is fifty seventh and creating contested catches, and I

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Speaker 1: gotta believe Klubnick's going right after Andrew mccouba right out

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Speaker 1: of the gate, Texas eighty third if you count total PBUs.

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Speaker 1: It is just to me, there's an avenue for brending

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Speaker 1: stool and Antonio Williams in the slot slants over the

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Speaker 1: middle to go right at the middle of that secondary.

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Speaker 1: That's what the formula was against SMU and it worked great,

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Speaker 1: and frankly, that opens up the running lanes later on.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of a reverse, so most teams want to

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Speaker 1: establish the run and then throw later. Clemson's kind of

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Speaker 1: doing the reverse and they had a lot of success

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Speaker 1: with it because they're terrible at running the ball right

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Speaker 1: now and SMU is a good rushdee. But not like this.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Texas numbers are elite almost everywhere except for

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Speaker 1: the fact they have issues in the red zone on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the ball. So I don't have

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Speaker 1: a lot of confidence that Clemson is just going to

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Speaker 1: come out with their hair on fire and score points.

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Speaker 1: But there are avenues at certain parts of this Texas

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Speaker 1: defense where I think Klubnick is going to have some success.

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Speaker 1: The other side of the balls where I have real problems.

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Speaker 1: So Ewers has seventeen turn over worthy plays this season,

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Speaker 1: but twelve of them came against Origin and Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M, so if you kind of throw that out,

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Speaker 1: he's been pretty good. Clemson's thirty sixth overall and coverage

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Speaker 1: grading twenty third creating contested catches, so there's not going

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Speaker 1: to be a clean window there. But I think it's

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Speaker 1: important to note that Clemson runs a lot of Cover

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Speaker 1: one and a lot of Cover three, and Wers just

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Speaker 1: hasn't made a lot of mistakes since Cover three. But Man,

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Speaker 1: a single high safety has really jacked his negative play

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Speaker 1: rate up to twelve percent. And if Clemson's out there

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Speaker 1: showing that it could be problems. Now, the best option

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Speaker 1: on the ground Contravian Wisner Jaden Blue. They're going to

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Speaker 1: run outside zone. Think about what the strength of the

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Speaker 1: Clemson defense is. It's those edge rushers. So when you

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Speaker 1: look at Clemson against outside zone, they've been highly successful

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Speaker 1: against that. It drops to about forty eight percent against

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Speaker 1: power concepts Longhorns. The offensive line is only seventy ninth

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Speaker 1: in the line yards, so I think there will be

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Speaker 1: a little bit of resistance on the run. But where

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Speaker 1: Texas is going to get in trouble is in passing

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Speaker 1: downs with yours getting pressure and you ask, well, Clemson

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Speaker 1: can they do that? I mean they're ninetieth and tackles

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Speaker 1: for loss. There's some havoc in there. EDGETJ. Parker is

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Speaker 1: the X factor here fourth nationally and creating nineteen tackles

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Speaker 1: for loss. One of the best pass rushers out there.

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Speaker 1: And look at the tackle play. I know you mentioned

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Speaker 1: Calvin Banks is coming back. He only played seven stamps

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Speaker 1: against Texas A and M. He didn't play at all

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Speaker 1: against Georgia. How healthy is he? We're gonna find out

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Speaker 1: real fast. Trevor Gooseby, who filled in for him, him

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Speaker 1: and right tackle Cameron Williams by far the worst graded

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Speaker 1: run blockers and pass protectors of the season. Their two

343
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Speaker 1: games have been against Texas A and M and Georgia.

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Speaker 1: And now you're getting edge TJ. Parker, who's like graded

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Speaker 1: as the best rush edge in all of PFF, going

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Speaker 1: up against these two tackles. And by the way, he

347
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Speaker 1: doesn't play just one tackle against Calvin Banks. He switches

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Speaker 1: both sides, so yours is going to get pressure in

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Speaker 1: his face and that's going to cause some mistakes here,

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Speaker 1: especially against cover one with a single high safety. I

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Speaker 1: see a lot of advantages here. I mean they can

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Speaker 1: defend outside.

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Speaker 2: The problem is Clemson can't stop the run. But they're

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Speaker 2: run defense numbers. But look at the look at the

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Speaker 2: concepts soft schedule, go.

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Speaker 1: Outside zone at the edges, and that's not where you

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Speaker 1: want to attack Clemson. You have to go up the gut,

358
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Speaker 1: and maybe they do that. You mentioned arch Manning and

359
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Speaker 1: running those RPO packages. If I was Sark, I would

360
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Speaker 1: sit back and say, who do I have on deck? Oh,

361
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Speaker 1: the Oregon defense. I'm not showing a damn RPO arch

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Speaker 1: Manning play at all because that will destroy organ on

363
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Speaker 1: the ground, especially if there's none of it on tape.

364
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Speaker 1: So I agree. I think Sark may throw this in

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Speaker 1: third gear they get up twenty one, twenty four, whatever

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Speaker 1: they may throw in third gear or this Clemson defense

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Speaker 1: and TJ. Parker puts a lot of havoc on yours

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Speaker 1: and hangs around the entire game. So I'm taking Clemson

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Speaker 1: in this game. No reason for me to fire on

370
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Speaker 1: twelve twelve and a half. You said you like fourteen,

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Speaker 1: and I mean I agree with it from thirteen. I'll

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Speaker 1: go go, let's go on board at thirteen because I

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Speaker 1: it's gonna get there. And I'm gonna take it. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take one shot on it. I'll probably take another

375
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Speaker 1: shot on fourteen. But for you and me straight up

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Speaker 1: on the board, let's go thirteen.

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Speaker 2: Hook the baby.

378
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Speaker 1: Well. By the way, Dabbo got like some FCS kid

379
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Speaker 1: out of the portal that.

380
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Speaker 2: I saw that maybe he's changed his ways. All right,

381
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Speaker 2: let's move to the final College wall playoff game on

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Speaker 2: Saturday Saturday night, eight Eastern on ABC. Ohio State and

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Speaker 2: Tennessee and Columbus. This is a tough team right here.

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Speaker 1: We're proud to be from Ohio.

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Speaker 2: It's always been Ohio against.

386
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Speaker 1: The world, and it'll continue to be Ohio against the world.

387
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Speaker 1: Got a tough.

388
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Speaker 2: Team, Ohio State. Where we are, we're still holding it.

389
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Speaker 2: Seven's seven and a half still some juiced Tennessee minus one.

390
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,800
Speaker 2: Fifteen looks like content consensus as of right now. By

391
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 2: the way, if you want to go to Columbus, a

392
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,479
Speaker 2: couple of places to hit if you want pizza Andreatico's Delhi,

393
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 2: Kat Singers Delhi, and then you gotta go to Warrios

394
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Speaker 2: for sandwich is Chicken coutd Caesar. All right, Ohio State, Tennessee.

395
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Speaker 2: It's my numbers like the favorite. Again, my numbers like

396
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Speaker 2: the favorite all three games six and a half. What

397
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 2: are you at on Saturday? Ten point two? But I

398
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 2: hate Tennessee. I've hated Tennessee all year. I don't trust

399
00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: this Tennessee offense. I think we're better run the ball

400
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,479
Speaker 2: a little bit. The Ohio State defensive line you can

401
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 2: push around a bit if you look at some of

402
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,199
Speaker 2: their underlying metrics. But I mean, you look at what

403
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 2: this tenant, if this tenant, I don't trust Nico in

404
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 2: this passing offense. Their offensive line has issues in pass protection.

405
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,239
Speaker 2: And I mean if you look at what Nico has

406
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 2: done on the road, and I don't even count that

407
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,159
Speaker 2: Vandy games. I mean there was a home game. It

408
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,199
Speaker 2: was a ninety percent tennis defense. At Georgia twenty to

409
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 2: thirty three for one to sixty. At Arkansas the bad

410
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 2: secondary seventeen to twenty nine for one to fifty eight,

411
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,679
Speaker 2: and a loss at Oklahoma thirteen to twenty one for

412
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 2: one to ninety four. It hasn't been that any in

413
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 2: all years. Numbers have not been that impressive. There's no

414
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: explosiveness in this offense, and so I don't trust. I

415
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: think the Ohio State defense is going to dominate.

416
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 5: I might go.

417
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,679
Speaker 2: Tennessee team total under to be honest, but because I'm

418
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,159
Speaker 2: trying to figure out how I want to approach this,

419
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 2: because what where I was just in Cleveland over the

420
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 2: weekend talking to a ton of Ohio State fans who

421
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 2: were like, we talked, and we talked about this. We

422
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 2: think everyone was tight for that Michigan game. Well everyone's

423
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 2: tight now and I think it might have been more

424
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 2: beneficial for going on the road. This game, to me,

425
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 2: all comes down to the start. So I don't know

426
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 2: how to bet it, because if like Ohio State comes

427
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 2: out fast, then I'm gonna just get I'll get a

428
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,120
Speaker 2: bad number if I try to them back Ohio State.

429
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: But I bet one of those I don't bet like

430
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: game product is that like Ohio State first half, end,

431
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 2: full game right combos.

432
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 1: I think what you're talking about. I think what you're

433
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 1: trying to say, and I agree with you, is whoever

434
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 1: shows domination in the first two series of the game,

435
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: you might as well just lie bet that team.

436
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, And well also do any team. I don't think

437
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 2: any team's gonna have success playing from behind in this game.

438
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 2: And because of the offensive line issues and because of

439
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 2: the both defensive lines and how much pressure I think

440
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 2: each defense can get and the Ohio State So my

441
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 2: initial thought also was under in this under forty seven.

442
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,080
Speaker 2: My only fear so Tennessee plays fast, but they're not

443
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: really that explosive. Ohio State's a snail, But my only

444
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 2: fear for Ohio State, who plays really slowly. I want

445
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: to communicate the quarterback blah blah blah. Is all the

446
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 2: comments with Chip Kelly and how bad the game plan

447
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 2: was against Michigan. Right, you had you were going up

448
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: against an elite defensive line. All you try to do

449
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 2: is run into walls. Right, where when did you have

450
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: success in the offense that game? The final drive of

451
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 2: the first half, they went hurry up because they had to,

452
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 2: and they threw it and they went down and scored

453
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 2: a touchdown, and then they didn't do it again. So

454
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: they said that they've gone through the tape with the

455
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: fine fine to come. So there's a chance. I think

456
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 2: Ohio State says we have to come out here and throw,

457
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 2: and we got to use tempo, which also can wear

458
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 2: down the defensive lines. By then you're gonna have two

459
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 2: teams using tempo. So that keeps me off the under

460
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: after digging in just fear of how the state might

461
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 2: approach this your state.

462
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: Laugh. You're making me laugh because you just saw Dtr

463
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 1: in person. It was the same thing at UCLA, Like

464
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: you know, run run, run, run, run, Well, can Dtr

465
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: get a pass out there to one of these tight

466
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 1: ends like he just chip Kelly refused to get away

467
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 1: from it sometimes stubborn yep.

468
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 2: And but I think after that, being the last game

469
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 2: and at home, I think you have to come out

470
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 2: with a completely different game plan because this is a

471
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 2: similar type of defense. Great defensive line, you can attack

472
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: their secondary. Now the question on the other side of

473
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: the ball, the question is ken the Ohio State offensive

474
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: line protect Will Howard because he is very shaky under pressure.

475
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 2: One big time throw six turnover where he plays, his

476
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 2: completion percentage drops from seventy eight to fifty two from

477
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: when kept clean to when under pressure. There's potential offensive

478
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 2: line changes coming. You might get Montgomery in there, you

479
00:22:55,960 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 2: might get Padella. How how does that play out? It's

480
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 2: had some time to work on it, but they maybe

481
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 2: maybe it can help. But there's a lot of variants there.

482
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 2: If you haven't had like live game action, building continuity,

483
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: and you're making changes for a college ball playoff game.

484
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 2: That's a huge storyline. But so my numbers like Ohio State.

485
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 2: I think Ohio State will cover if they start fast.

486
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 2: If they don't, I think they they might lose the

487
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 2: game outright if they go like three green outs and

488
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 2: then get behind and then Howard has to throw and

489
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: this offensive line can't protect. Like that's how important I think,

490
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 2: Because then I think on the other on the other side,

491
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: I think if Io State jumps out, Nico will eventually

492
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 2: make a mistake and they'll get pressure on him. Like

493
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 2: the start of this game is so important, not only

494
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 2: just from how the game is going to play out

495
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: schematically and where these strengths and weaknesses of each respective

496
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: team are, but also just mentally for Ohio State and

497
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 2: that crowd. So yeah, numbers like Ohio State. Still trying

498
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 2: to figure out how I want to play this, but

499
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 2: definitely at seven I'll probably be on the Buckeyes in

500
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 2: some some form of fashion. What do you say?

501
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: It's funny. I wanted to wait for I wanted to

502
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: wait to talk to you before I started fire on this,

503
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: But earlier today I did take a first half under

504
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 1: twenty three because it's all the same sentiments that you have.

505
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: And now that I'm thinking about it with our over

506
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: at the action app Our Parlay express account, why not

507
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 1: put a wager on like first team scores leads first quarter,

508
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: second quarter, third quarter, or fourth quarter. I mean, I

509
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: don't know what that would pay. First team scores wins

510
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 1: the game, I don't know, but there's probs out there

511
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: like that. And I feel like because Hypel has a

512
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 1: certain offense that he does not go away from and

513
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: Kelly has a certain office that he does not go

514
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 1: away from. When it gets broken, it's broken, right. Tennessee

515
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 1: was broken against Arkansas. Now let me handicap this because

516
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: I do like Tennessee, but I like them for defensive reasons.

517
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: But on offense, it is going to be the Dylan

518
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 1: Samson Show. The Bolls are going to use inside zone

519
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 1: counter power whatever they need to. Each of them have

520
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 1: a very strong success rate. Power creates an explosive one

521
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 1: of every four attempts. So watch Dylan Samson against that

522
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: defensive line of Ohio State that can be chewed up

523
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 1: there what outside the top fifteen line yards, they're kind

524
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: of a mid success rate FBS wise defending all those concepts,

525
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 1: but power is really where they get gashed. And Buckeyes

526
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: are fifty third and broken tackles. I think that's important

527
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 1: because if Samson gets to the second level, look out

528
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: because some of these guys in the back end of

529
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 1: this Ohio State defense, they've they've kind of missed out

530
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: on some tackles. The Boles offensive line is ninth in

531
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: the line yards that should be able to push around

532
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: get Samson what he needs so he ca get about

533
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,479
Speaker 1: four yards after first contact. The one thing that's going

534
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: to get Tennessee to win this game is staying in

535
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: standard downs. If they get into passing downs, they're done.

536
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: Nico Iamla this season two point nine seconds to release,

537
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: like two point five is the average in college football.

538
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 1: What are we doing? Are we making a sandwich like

539
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: way too slow? That is a huge factor. With an

540
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 1: offensive line that's seventy fourth and pass blocking, Ohio State's

541
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: going to be all over that. If Tennessee can stay

542
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: in sandard.

543
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 2: To be sending pressure, yeah, especially on downs.

544
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: So that's that's the handicap on the Tennessee side. And

545
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: you just you think they're gonna have success and then

546
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: they're gonna get down in the red zone area and

547
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: we'll see what they can do. Because on the other

548
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: side of the ball, the offensive line issues for Ohio

549
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: State a real problem. I mean, you mentioned a lot

550
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: of the things. There's been a lot of shuffling, there's

551
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 1: been a lot of moving around. You know. Tennessee's advantage

552
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 1: here is absolutely insane. When you dive into the numbers,

553
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 1: especially at the edge positions. Everybody knows what James Pearce

554
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 1: has been able to do. He is ranked number one

555
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: in PFF and pass rush productivity. Nobody creates pressure like

556
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 1: James Pearce. But then when you go and look at

557
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: the rush their other edge, Joshua Joseph's dominates offensive tackles

558
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: graded number one at the edge position in PFF at

559
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: run defense. So which one you're gonna run? Have to

560
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 1: run at Pierce right, and you're gonna have to go

561
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: away from Pierce and passing. I mean, it's insane with

562
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: this Tennessee defensive line is and we talked about this

563
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: on a couple of pods. Tennessee secondary was wiped first string,

564
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: second string in the offseason, and they are top four.

565
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,439
Speaker 1: Tim Banks has them top forty if Will Howard has

566
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: to pass with pressure, one big time throws, six turnover

567
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: worthy plays and eighty eight pressure drop backs this season,

568
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 1: Tennessee does not allow you to catch the ball twenty

569
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: fourth and creating contested catches. To me, the game screams defenses,

570
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: defenses dominating here. I don't expect explosive plays from Tennessee.

571
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 1: I don't expect them from Ohio State. Both defenses are

572
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 1: top twenty five and creating contested catches. Ohio States outside

573
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: zone is just going to go right into the defensive

574
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: edges of Tennessee. That's not going to work either. So

575
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: if you had to make a better you're in a pool.

576
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: I mean the Unders trickling down. I like that. The

577
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: worry is what stuck said Chip. Kelly says, well, we're

578
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 1: just going to have to throw with Will Howard. I

579
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: like Tennessee. It's seven and a half, I make it

580
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 1: six and a half. I like it lower. But it's

581
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: really a defensive play. So I agree with you. Do

582
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: we just take both team totals under? Do we take

583
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: full game under it? From a live betting perspective, everybody,

584
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: I think the team that scores first and shows domination

585
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: the first two series. They're absolutely going to win the

586
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 1: game and win every quarter.

587
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: Are you seven? You don't want to go ahead to head?

588
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: You eat seven and a half? Go on, I gave

589
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 2: you thirteen, but I know it's thirteen. Yeah, sure, Texas

590
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,959
Speaker 2: with thirty, I give you thirteen with Texas a monk seven, right,

591
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: I'll take Ohio State. All right. Let's move on to

592
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 2: our two bowl games on Monday. Then we'll get to Tuesday.

593
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 2: Let's start with the Myrtle Beach Bowl between Coastal Carolina

594
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 2: and Utsa Meat.

595
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: Meat the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

596
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 2: This game is at eleven am Eastern on Monday. Is

597
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 2: that man? We got an early one?

598
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 1: Yeah?

599
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: It is in Conway, South Carolina. On espn Utsa is

600
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 2: out to a ten point favorite. I'll hopefully listen to

601
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: the podcast and got an earlier number that we said

602
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 2: we liked. I still I wouldn't put bet it up

603
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 2: to ten no further. And that's just because who's out

604
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: for a Coastal By the way, if you go to Conway,

605
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: I've never been to Conway. Followers said go to Crooked o'

606
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: tavern or you know, I think it's like a half

607
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: hour from Myrtle Beach. You can just go to Myrtle

608
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 2: Beach and play a ship ton of mini golf. It's

609
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 2: the mini off capital of the world. So utsa ten

610
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: point favorite here. Let's go through who's out. Well first,

611
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: I'll start with you two sex that's easier. In the portal,

612
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 2: are starting d n Triplet. You know, one of their backs, Barnes,

613
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 2: one of their depth receivers, Wilson Joseph Evans, he declared

614
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 2: for the NFL Draft, the defensive lineman. I assume he's

615
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 2: going to be out. They're starting corner Denver Harris didn't

616
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 2: play in the finality, and neither did their other running back,

617
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 2: Robert Henry. Brandon Hige took all the snaps. They're starting

618
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 2: side Anaars Skirt Cordenius, who's pretty good. He was out

619
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: for the year, but he last played in Week nine.

620
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: That's pretty much a Trailer expects most of the roster

621
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: to be available, and even the players in the portal

622
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 2: are traveling with the team. So those players in the

623
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 2: portal I think might still play signals that they care

624
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: and I like trailer. He's a good coach. Coastal Carolina,

625
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: on the other hand, yes, they're close to home, so

626
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 2: they have the advantage there. But both of their quarterbacks

627
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 2: that they use this year, Noa. Kim and Eithan Vasco

628
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: are and the portal. They're only freshman behind those two.

629
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 2: Tim Beck said, the freshman Tad Hudson, he has zero

630
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 2: career snaps, will get the start. And they also have

631
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: Alex Walker. He then joked with the reporters that he's

632
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 2: going to take them all out for tryouts after the presser.

633
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: So I thought I read that as he wanted the

634
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: beat reporters to have try out.

635
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, he was going to see who among the

636
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: reporters can throw football the best in the portal. Also,

637
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: they're starting corner Matthew mcdoon, really good player. He's signed

638
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: with Cincinnati. I assume he's out. They're starting outside linebacker

639
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 2: Cleff Lubin, good player, he's signed with Auburn. I assume

640
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: he's out. They're starting tight end Kendall cars in the portal.

641
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: Not sure in his status. They have another cornerback in

642
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 2: the portal. Then they had a ton of injuries to

643
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: end the year. They're starting right tackle miss the finale.

644
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 2: They're starting left guard got injured in that game. Their

645
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: wide receiver Cam Right, and both starting linebackers missed the finale.

646
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: Actually they missed the final two games, and they're starting

647
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 2: safety was also hurt in the finale. AJ Williams his

648
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:41,479
Speaker 2: team is a mess. It's a shell of itself. I

649
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: think UTSA, as long as they care, they're going to

650
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: roll here, and I think that they do. Coastal wants

651
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: to run to set up past explosives, but you can't

652
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 2: run on UTSA. And UTSA does give up past explosives.

653
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 2: But who's the quarterback here? You know, the freshman? Do

654
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: I trust him to do that here?

655
00:30:58,800 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 5: No?

656
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 2: You know they're past d is Coastals past these better

657
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: than the run d But they're missing a couple of

658
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: guys in the secondary, including their best corner. You can't

659
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: run on UTSA. But that Utsa offense it started rolling

660
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: at the end of the year. I really liked what

661
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: I saw. I think don't be able to this. Coastal

662
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 2: defense is bad a past run it's it's not great

663
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 2: against either. So I think Coastal is really overmatched here.

664
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: As long as UTSA cares, I think they'll win by

665
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 2: double digits. Would not go above ten. That's smaller about

666
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: now that the line is going up, but I like

667
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: meet meat meat.

668
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean we're both down on UTSA already, and

669
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: I think what we need to do as a service

670
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: for this podcast is direct people on what to do

671
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: with this number, which I don't think is going to

672
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: stop going. So do you want to play it live

673
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: and see if maybe Coastal gets a field goal and

674
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 1: maybe you get a better number? You can try. I

675
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: think the better thing to do is to give advice.

676
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that you and I

677
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: have had such a hard time with this year is

678
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: that backup quarterbacks will come in throw a wrinkle into

679
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: the game and do something different, and then our bets

680
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: are like, you know, we handicapped this game perfect. Now

681
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: there's a new quarterback defense wasn't ready boom, our tickets

682
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 1: are burned. So I think what we need to do

683
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: is talk about the two quarterbacks, because I decided to

684
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: handicap this game by saying, if somebody thinks that they

685
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: want to get involved with Coastal Live, let's give them

686
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: some advice, all right. So if UTSA is not going

687
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,719
Speaker 1: to allow you to run and create explosives, then if

688
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 1: Alex Walker is going to be the quarterback for Coastal.

689
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: That's where UTSA should thrive because it's just a complete

690
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: mystery trying to find this kid, like you know, in

691
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: recruiting rankings anything. But I did find his high school

692
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: stats twenty four hundred passing yards, four hundred rushing yards

693
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: on the ground. He is mobile, he can move. If

694
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: it's Tad Hudson, there could be a little bit more

695
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 1: success for Coastal. Four star broad shoulders thick. He's been

696
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: labeled as a classic pocket passer by twenty four to

697
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 1: seven recruiting analysts, so there could be a little bit

698
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: more success with Tad Hudson. Who knows if he's accurate,

699
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: who knows if he can be in a pressured pocket.

700
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 1: But he is the one that passes where Alex Walker

701
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: is definitely the one that runs. UTSA is going to

702
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 1: run all day, absolutely run all day. I mean, cavoring Barnes.

703
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: I don't know if he got tired or if he

704
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: just got injured, what was going on down the stretch,

705
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: But Robert Henry took over and just went crazy with

706
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 1: the ball. So you know, I don't I don't expect hurt. Yeah,

707
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: So I just you know, Coastal lost a lot in

708
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: the secondary. And when we talk about that, generally you

709
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: would think you could pass on them all day. But

710
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: you know what else that effects. That affects second level

711
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 1: tackling against a UTSA rush offense that's going to hit

712
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: you ten yards down the field. So I mean, if

713
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: you're saying you're stopping at ten, I guess yeah, the

714
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: advice is stop at ten. Maybe a coastal team total

715
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: under this is ugly heavily weighted on the on the

716
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: road runner side.

717
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: You can also use UTSA as a moneyline piece with

718
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: one of the favorites in the costwall playoff you like

719
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 2: on Saturday, I don't mind that either, if you like,

720
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 2: don't want to lay it. You're leading that way and

721
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: you want some action. All right, Let's move on to Monday,

722
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: two thirty Eastern, the famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

723
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 1: The famous Idahope Potato Bowl. Light as well, face it

724
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: your addictedness.

725
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: Between Fresno and Northern Illinois. A lot of news here.

726
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois is a round a three point favorite total

727
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 2: sitting around forty. So the guys in the portal in

728
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 2: this game are all out on both sides. None of

729
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: them are on the depth chart. So what does that mean.

730
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 2: So Fresno starting quarterback out Mikey Keane. Both of their

731
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: starting wide receivers Jalen Moss, Raylan Sharp, they're out. There

732
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:31,240
Speaker 2: are two starting cornerbacks, Hamilton and Neil are out, as

733
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 2: is cam Lockridge, who declared for the NFL Draft. He

734
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 2: was heard at the end of the year. Both of

735
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: their starting defensive tackles Lightfoot and Holmes, and they're starting

736
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,479
Speaker 2: linebacker Phoenix Jackson. They're all out.

737
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 1: That's huge. Those both names you just mentioned are really

738
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 1: huge against the NIU rush offense.

739
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 2: Yes, the biggest. I mean, look you, it looks like

740
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 2: they're still gonna have Magdalena, who's declared for the NFL Draft.

741
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: He's like their slock Eye. He will help a little bit,

742
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 2: but he also could sit out. They're starting a left

743
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 2: guard and miss the finalite. He is on the depth chart.

744
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 2: Now you at quarterback, you're probably you could see that

745
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 2: have an or designation. You can either see Josh Wood

746
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 2: or Jaden Mandall. Josh Wood is the runner. Jaden Mandaal

747
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 2: is more of the passer. And the thing is if

748
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 2: they decide to go with Wood and then run like RPO,

749
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 2: president can't run the ball. I mean this is a

750
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: I mean they're like, well, bottom ten rush success rate

751
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 2: outside the top on a rush EPA. And if you

752
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: look at NIU, NIU shut down every running quarterback they

753
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: face this year, including Notre Dame with Riley Leonard and

754
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 2: running quarterbacks has come.

755
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 1: Sixty percent success rate against inside zone with quarterbacks running it.

756
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: So an IU defense, yes.

757
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've done about nothing. Now if they want to

758
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,240
Speaker 2: throw it, you can't throw it in you and I's passed.

759
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,879
Speaker 2: He's been very good all year. And Presno's down. Two

760
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 2: of their starting wide receivers have four total catches on

761
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 2: the year for this game. That's how bad it is.

762
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 2: And then on the other side, Northern Illinois is gonna

763
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: be without their starting quarterback Ethan Hampton. They're starting safety

764
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: Santanna Banner, who's good. They're starting wide receiver Trevon Rudolph.

765
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 2: He's really good. They get him the ball, hand it

766
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:08,959
Speaker 2: off to him, throw it to him. He's a return man.

767
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 2: They're starting d tackle Skyler Gil Howard. They're starting d

768
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: N Jelanie Williams. They're all out. Not as bad as

769
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 2: it is for Fresno. Josh Holst will get the start

770
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 2: at and then two guys who accepted invites who were

771
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: going to the NFL, Devonte O'Malley and JJ Lippi their

772
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: left guard and D tackle. They are on the depth charts.

773
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna play. Josh Holt is gonna get

774
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: just Josh Holst is gonna get the start under center.

775
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: He did play this year when Hampton got hurt. They

776
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 2: might use some Jalen Macon too. Whole stinks and he

777
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 2: has no one to really throw to, and there's no Rudolph.

778
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: But and I was just gonna come out of here

779
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 2: and run the ball like they're just gonna run. They're

780
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 2: just gonna run. Dive ball game, and Fresno is not

781
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: a great run day, and they're without both their D tackles.

782
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 2: They're starting a true freshman defensive tackle. So I think

783
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: and I he's gonna be able to move the ball

784
00:36:56,480 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 2: on the ground, and I think they're well suited to

785
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 2: stop Presno. Whether they try to throw it with a

786
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: backup quarterback and a bunch of your receivers out, we're

787
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: trying to run it. They can't really run it, and

788
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 2: they'll be trying to run it with a quarterback, which

789
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 2: can be successful in these Bowl games as a surprise.

790
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: But and I U's done a great job against any

791
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 2: running quarterback they faced all year. So yeah, I mean

792
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 2: there might be some barances in NIU four downs which

793
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 2: you get in these games, but Eileen, NIU, and man,

794
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 2: it's low for a Bowl. I like the under. I

795
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: can't this game has like seventeen to ten ridden all

796
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 2: over without flukes, you might get like you just might

797
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 2: get a bunch of four downs and trick plays whatever

798
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 2: that could work for you or against you. And it's

799
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 2: low for a Bowl. But I can't see Fresno moving

800
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 2: the ball. And I don't think NIU is gonna have

801
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: a ton of success hitting explosives and not gonna throw it.

802
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 2: It's gonna be running it. The clock's gonna be going,

803
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna be able to turn the

804
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 2: clock and move efficiently at tom and that's going to

805
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,439
Speaker 2: be the difference in the game. But this is under

806
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 2: an the NIU for me.

807
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 1: You know, before I hop into a couple of things

808
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: that you said, because I completely agree with you, I

809
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: wonder if the first half under is best in these situations,

810
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: because you go back to James Madison right a lot

811
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: of moving pieces on an offensive side, and they're trying

812
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: to figure out Chesney's system, and finally halftime adjustments were

813
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 1: made and then there's some continuity going on with the offense.

814
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: So I may pivot to a first half under, but

815
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: I agree under is the play all the way here.

816
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois runs a lot of outside zone. No matter

817
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: who's healthy or who's opting out or who's there, it's

818
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: going to be sixty percent or more rushing attempt using

819
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: outside zone, and Fresno is missing a number of players

820
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 1: that would have helped defend that. Fresno's defense was best

821
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 1: this season against the past and limiting explosives, but you're

822
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: just you're not going to get that here out of

823
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,399
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois eighty two pass attempts from Josh Holts, one

824
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 1: big time throw for turnover worthy plays has not been pretty.

825
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that Wood does have some designed

826
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: rushing experience, not just scrambles. He's got some rushing yards

827
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 1: in him, so we'll see what they run on the ground.

828
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: But all of that points to the under. Bye by far,

829
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: I think the one thing that's keeping me away from saying, yeah,

830
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: we should bet in n IU they're terrible in scoring

831
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 1: position one hundred and seventh in offensive.

832
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 2: Don't like that. I don't want to bet them the

833
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 2: win by margin, like yeah, yeah, and you know if

834
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 2: they get behind like three nothing, seven nothing, I think

835
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:22,879
Speaker 2: they're a good live.

836
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,439
Speaker 1: That neither team is inside the top fifty and rush

837
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 1: or pass epa and also Fresno's eighty six in offensive

838
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: finishing drive. So just I know it's a gross number.

839
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: I know it's low, but.

840
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: Under under okay, Yeah, we got our first two unders

841
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 2: on the put the bulls yesterday. Oh, by the way,

842
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 2: I've never been to Boise, follower, I reached out to

843
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 2: BJ or friend of the show. He didn't answer me,

844
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 2: too busy tweeting about Fresno uh flying the New England

845
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 2: Patriots team plane to uh Boise for the for the

846
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: Bowl game. But a friend mine st check out Double

847
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 2: Tap like bar food place. You have you been to Bois?

848
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: Yeah? But I went to a raft with my boys,

849
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 1: a class four rivers, so I did not, that's right,

850
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: not in a pub with a twelve year old. So

851
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: I wish I could have been at the time.

852
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 2: All right, let's move to Tuesday, the final Bowl. We'll

853
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 2: cover on this episode the Hawaii Bowl.

854
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 3: Mel Macca is a thing to say on a bride

855
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 3: the Wild Christmas Day. That's the island greeting that we

856
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 3: saund you from the land where palms.

857
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 2: And this we ate Eastern on Christmas Eve. Nice little

858
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,760
Speaker 2: Christmas Eve tradition between South Florida and Santase State Santaesday

859
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 2: state three and a half point favorite total sixty and

860
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: a half. Do you want to go to Honolulu? A

861
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: couple of places daytime bar go to LULUs are there

862
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 2: for like when there's a bunch of games on or

863
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: like an NFL Sunday, go to uh Giovanni's Pastrami. All right,

864
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 2: So for this game, this sucks because Nicknash is out. Yeah, yeah,

865
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 2: to talk about Nick Nash, I will say my first

866
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 2: thought in this game was over because there's gonna be

867
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 2: a million possessions in this game. These two teams are fast.

868
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 2: There's just gonna be quick possessions. Punts are explosives, So

869
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: what do you want that game for? An over sixty

870
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 2: and a half. In a bowl game, you need explosives,

871
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 2: Like if you're gonna go over the cash, you need explosive.

872
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,479
Speaker 2: So when I look San Jose State's Rundy's pretty good,

873
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 2: but you can throw on them. And there I should

874
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,439
Speaker 2: go over who's out for this game? So Nick Nash

875
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 2: is out in the portal, they're starting corner. Both of

876
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 2: their starting corners are in the portal. One of them

877
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 2: signed with USC, so I would imagine they're both out.

878
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: So this secondary is gonna be vulnerable. But USF can't

879
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:49,919
Speaker 2: really throw it with Bryce Archie. But can they? Will

880
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: they be able to because Santase State secondary is undermanned

881
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 2: and not that good. Does Byron Brown have a chance

882
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: to play? I don't know. I haven't If he plays,

883
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: I would like this. There are always yeah, I would

884
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,280
Speaker 2: like this over and I would like USF because USF

885
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: also they're really good against the run, but you can

886
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: throw on them. So and Shantasy State hits past explosives

887
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 2: and they go fast. They can't run the ball, so

888
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 2: they're not going to try to run it. They're just

889
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: going to throw it a million times. My question is

890
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 2: how much of a downngrid is it without Nash? Like

891
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 2: can they still be an effective passing offense? Because not

892
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 2: only are you missing Nash, the most productive receiver in

893
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 2: the country, you're missing all the attention that he drew right,

894
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 2: so all the other receivers would benefit from you know,

895
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 2: towards the end of the year, people were double and

896
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 2: triple team again. Another thing to keep in mind is

897
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: potential win. It's in Honolulu, so we have to see

898
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 2: what the forecast is.

899
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 1: Like.

900
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 2: I think it's like right now, it's fifteen to twenty,

901
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 2: you know, so if it's like ten to fifteen, there's

902
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: always gonna be some win in Honolu, like who cares,

903
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 2: But it ends up being like twenty to twenty five

904
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:53,240
Speaker 2: that could be impactful on downfield throws and field goals.

905
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 2: So I can't play Santa as they stay without Nash.

906
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 2: I lean over especially a Brown play, but need to

907
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 2: see whether as we get closer and if I need

908
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: more clarity on who's in and who's out. What are

909
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 2: you seeing here?

910
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, Also, they don't have cameras and the pylons here

911
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 1: at the Hawaii Bowl for all of you OG's out

912
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: there that remembers Zach Wilson doing a helicopter over the

913
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: goal line. We got screwed out of a touchdown there.

914
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 1: So I think I think the question for San Jose

915
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 1: State is do they go more twelve personnel with Jackson

916
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: Cannan and Jacob Stewart, you know, exclusively line up out

917
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: of the slot seventy nine combined targets. That seems to

918
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 1: be the next best passing option there. But then again,

919
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 1: do wide out Justin Lockhart and Trason Henry Hurry, do

920
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: they get attention with Nash out right? Do they get

921
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: double teams or do they get extra zone? Do they

922
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 1: get extra you know, I'm just wondering what does the

923
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 1: San Jose State offense look like when the entire season

924
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,959
Speaker 1: has been based on triple teaming Nick Nash right, who,

925
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: by the way, should.

926
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 2: It hard question to answer?

927
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I voted for Bulittan a cough ridiculous, But you know,

928
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 1: you look at you look at at Nick Nash was

929
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 1: thirteen point three, it's nineteen point six and both tight

930
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: ends about eight point three and seven. So you're looking

931
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 1: at short stuff to the tight ends. You're looking at

932
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:09,479
Speaker 1: Lockhart out wide USF. They're outside the top one hundred

933
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 1: defending pass explosives. So yes, I see points points to

934
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: points here for them. I'm just wondering how consistent the

935
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 1: offense is going to be without Nick Nash. I mean,

936
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 1: you can practice this all day. I'm pretty worried.

937
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 2: He needed to be consistent to get a total of

938
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:21,839
Speaker 2: sixteen and a half.

939
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, and I think it's going to come in

940
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 1: spurts and stuck it. It's again, it's like I talk

941
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 1: about these offenses that have been running one way the

942
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 1: entire season, Maybe they need an entire half to get

943
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 1: familiar with each other in live action before they come

944
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 1: out in the second half. And I just keep going

945
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 1: back to James Madison. It's just it's one of those things.

946
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 1: So when you look at Bryce Archie, you know an

947
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 1: even number of tds, I iNTS and big time throws

948
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 1: and turnover worthy plays, but the twenty two drops on

949
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: the season are like, that's a real problem for this

950
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: South Florida team. You know, Brown had nine drops by targets.

951
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 1: Bryce Archie had twenty two drops at thirty one. That

952
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: puts them just shy of a couple, shy of Georgia.

953
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 1: Who leads the nation and drops South Florida is all

954
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: rush EPA here bottom ten and offense momentum killer. They

955
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 1: cannot create methodicals. Do not expect drives with two plus

956
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: first downs out of South Florida, Joiner or right, I

957
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: mean eighteen rushing touchdowns. Joiners produced twice as many explosives

958
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 1: of right, So if you like props, i'd say Joiner, like,

959
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: you know, his longest run probably going to be over

960
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 1: forty yards. Lots of inside zone encounter coming out of

961
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: this South Florida team, you know, it's kind of a wash.

962
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: San Jose State's inside zone defense pretty respectable from a

963
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 1: success rate standpoint. I can't say that they've seen much

964
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 1: talent in the Mountain West, you know, and some of

965
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 1: the defenses they face, and San Jose State is seventy

966
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 1: seventh and defensive rush EPA one hundred and fifteenth and

967
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,479
Speaker 1: tackle grading. They are not tackling at the second level,

968
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: which is why stuck and I see a lot of explosives,

969
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 1: But is it going to come in spurts or is

970
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: it going to be consistent? And can San Jose State

971
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 1: keep up with their parts? So I took South Florida

972
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,439
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. There are whispers of Brown

973
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 1: playing that is a huge advantage. I would expect that

974
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 1: to completely move this line. And then I think, from

975
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 1: a total perspective, I am going to play it live.

976
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 1: I think I need a couple series for the new

977
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 1: offensive San Jose stay. They're familiar with each other and

978
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 1: if we get dropped below the key number of fifty five,

979
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 1: time to go.

980
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for us. We will have

981
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 2: a live show ten thirty em Eastern on Saturday. By

982
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 2: the way, summarize head to head. I'm on Texas and

983
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:21,879
Speaker 2: Ohio State. Colin is on.

984
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: Penn State.

985
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 2: Penn State, I lean that way, might get there, and

986
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 2: both like the NIU under if you see me at

987
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 2: USF that means I found out that Brown is going

988
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 2: to play. Colin played USF anyway, and then we both

989
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 2: like UTSA and.

990
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: We both made some form of unders on Tennessee and

991
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: Ohio State. Yes, and either team hereout somewhere.

992
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: The start is big there the start of that game.

993
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for us. Thanks to Colin

994
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 2: for joining me, Thanks to our producer on the back end.

995
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 2: Most thanks all of you for tuning again. Make sure

996
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,479
Speaker 2: you subscribe on subscribe, subscribe, tell a friend, tell on enemy.

997
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 2: You know the drill be a five star review that

998
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 2: really helps us out. All right, Rafrus will fill in

999
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 2: on which what we'll cover on what's left for episodes

1000
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 2: On the twenty third, twenty sixth and thirtieth.

1001
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 4: All right, thank you Stucky, everybody, thank you so much

1002
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 4: for joining us once again for my favorite time of

1003
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 4: the year, Bowl season. Here is the remaining schedule. This

1004
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 4: Monday the twenty third, we will have our Bowl Season

1005
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 4: Part three that will cover every game between the Game

1006
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 4: Above Bowl and the Las Vegas Bowl. That'll be out

1007
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 4: right after lunch Eastern time. Then we'll have another one

1008
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 4: on Thursday, the twenty sixth that is Part four, also

1009
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 4: right after lunch, that will cover every game between the

1010
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 4: Fenway Bowl and the Sun Bowl. Monday the thirtieth, again

1011
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 4: right about you know, two o'clock Eastern, we'll have Bowl

1012
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 4: Season Part five that will cover every bowl between the

1013
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 4: Cheese Bowl and the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. And then

1014
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:08,720
Speaker 4: we will return on January seventh for the semi finals

1015
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 4: and then finally Friday the seventeenth for our National Championship

1016
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 4: preview and award show spectacular to wrap up the season.

1017
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 4: So podcast episodes this Monday the twenty third, this Thursday,

1018
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 4: the twenty sixth, and then the thirtieth, the seventh, and

1019
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 4: the seventeenth, and BBOC Live this Saturday, the twenty first,

1020
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 4: and then next Saturday, the twenty eighth will be our

1021
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 4: final BBOC live show. Thanks so much for listening all

1022
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 4: Bowl season long, and I wish you the very best

1023
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 4: of luck on all your bets.

1024
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: If you hate Bowl games, go listen to NTR.

1025
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,359
Speaker 2: Time for us to go dig in to some more

1026
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 2: Bowl related stuff. Get ready for the quarterfinals. Enjoy the

1027
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 2: college football this weekend. We'll see you Saturday morning for

1028
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:00,439
Speaker 2: the live show. Catch on your chose.

1029
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 1: He's out. It's the most squanderful time. It's the most

1030
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 1: squanerfle time. Call the most squanderful.

1031
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 5: Time of the.

1032
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1033
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1034
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler