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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome to the Buck Brief. On this episode,

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Speaker 2: our friend Bridge Colby, founder and principal of the Marathon Initiative,

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Speaker 2: guy who's super smart about things all over the world,

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Speaker 2: especially in China.

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Speaker 3: Bridge.

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Speaker 4: Good to have you back, Great to be a Backbuck.

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Speaker 2: So, how do you assess we're kind of doing a

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Speaker 2: year in review in the year look ahead here, right,

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Speaker 2: how do you assess Biden administration policy, visa via China

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Speaker 2: this past year and just big things in China that

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Speaker 2: have happened or are happening that you're keeping an eye on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, look, I mean, Buck, honestly, I think we

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Speaker 1: gotta step back. And I don't think this is an exaggeration.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it sounds kind of over the top, liar rid,

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Speaker 1: but I honestly think it's born out by the facts,

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Speaker 1: which is that the foreign policy our government has been

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Speaker 1: pursuing over the last couple of years is basically catastrophic

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Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, you look around the world.

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Speaker 1: We've got the largest war in Europe in seventy five

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Speaker 1: or so years. And it's not only is it not

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Speaker 1: likely to end soon, it is unfortunately possible the Russians

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Speaker 1: may be gain in the upper hand. I mean, Zelenski

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Speaker 1: apparently has been it has been recommended that he mobilized

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Speaker 1: five hundred thousand additional Ukrainian troops. Neither we nor the

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Speaker 1: Europeans are clearly going to at least, you know, increase

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Speaker 1: armed supplies, et set of the Russian military productions going up.

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Speaker 4: They're mobilizing forces, they're adapting, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Largest mascer of Jews since the Holocaust, and a war

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Speaker 1: going on in Gaza that according to the Israelis at

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Speaker 1: least doesn't seem to be likely to end soon, possibly

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Speaker 1: going to expand to the northern front, obviously, the hutis

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Speaker 1: et cetera. The North Koreans testing what essentially, I think

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Speaker 1: at this one we need to assume is a nuclear

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Speaker 1: tipped ICBM, and then of course you have China, and

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Speaker 1: so I mean, I think we've tested essentially a policy

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Speaker 1: of you know, the focus on the rules space of

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Speaker 1: national order. We can walk and chew gum, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. We can try to globalize our alliance and

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Speaker 1: now here we are and if effectively I mean my read,

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Speaker 1: I've been really trying to understand and in a sense

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Speaker 1: give the administration the best possible interpretation of what they're doing.

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Speaker 1: I honestly don't think again, it's much of an exaggeration

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Speaker 1: as to say it's a form of appeasement that they're trying,

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Speaker 1: because they essentially asked Chi Jinping for the meeting. Now

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Speaker 1: they weren't willing to do certain things like basically give

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Speaker 1: over Taiwan like a you know, on a platter. But

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Speaker 1: you know, according to senior administration officials talking to Politico,

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Speaker 1: they were saying that they were distracted. Basically they didn't

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Speaker 1: want problem with China in the coming year because they

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Speaker 1: have Ukraine, the Middle East and even they said reelection campaign,

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Speaker 1: I mean.

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Speaker 4: Which is like surreal, but they're talking about that.

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Speaker 1: And and now it's just coming out that She Jinping

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Speaker 1: basically was like, we are going to reunify. I haven't

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Speaker 1: said a timeline, but like that doesn't mean it's later,

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Speaker 1: it could be in it earlier. Like he's obviously not

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Speaker 1: going to tell us and we're not in a good

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Speaker 1: position there, so we're overstretched. I mean, I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: that Chinese are necessarily deliberately behind this. It's pos the

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Speaker 1: have been in certain cases. I mean, Chijinping and Putin

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Speaker 1: spent an hour and a half two hours together one

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Speaker 1: on one at the Belton Road Form. I think this

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Speaker 1: was in November. What were they talking about. They were

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Speaker 1: not talking about like their golf game. They were presumably

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Speaker 1: talking about the Middle East, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 4: So we're not ready.

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Speaker 1: If anything, the Chinese are not actually being deceptive. They

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Speaker 1: are pretty clearly signaling that the military option is there

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Speaker 1: and we're not prepared. And then of course you have

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Speaker 1: the whole situation with the supplemental et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, Biden has essentially staked his own certainly,

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Speaker 1: but to extent that we're with him. Sadly as a

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Speaker 1: country also our national credibility and sort of interests on

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Speaker 1: a foreign policy that I think is resulting in a

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Speaker 1: really I mean the most dangerous situation.

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Speaker 4: I always hate this.

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Speaker 1: I think we've talked about this, but like John McCain,

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Speaker 1: you say, oh, it's the most dangerous time in history.

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Speaker 1: You say this in like two thousand and five and

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Speaker 1: it was like, actually, no, this is quite safe today.

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Speaker 1: I actually think we are in the most dangerous time

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Speaker 1: in generations.

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Speaker 2: What do you think the the opening phase of a

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Speaker 2: Chinese invasion of Taiwan? I mean, what what does it

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Speaker 2: look like?

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Speaker 3: Is it just.

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Speaker 2: Initially you know, air strikes trying to develop air superiority,

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Speaker 2: and then a whole bunch of of troop transports and

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Speaker 2: you know, battleships, et cetera, going across the straight of Taiwan? Like,

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Speaker 2: how does it how does that actually unfold to the

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Speaker 2: best of you know, your ability to kind of war

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Speaker 2: game this went out into the future because I'm just

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Speaker 2: wondering how much warning would we have of this and

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Speaker 2: how quickly could we respond?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that's an excellent question, and I think, look,

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Speaker 1: stepping back a second, my kind of methodology is like,

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Speaker 1: I don't pretend to know what's Insugen Ping's had, and

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Speaker 1: there are other people who know what the PLA is

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Speaker 1: doing more than I do. But I think the right

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Speaker 1: way and I think the heuristic, if you will, that's

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Speaker 1: been born out the best over the last twenty five

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Speaker 1: or thirty years about China is a kind of geopolitical

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Speaker 1: realism and not like aality like, oh, they're perfect. They're

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Speaker 1: going to do exactly the optimal thing at all times,

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Speaker 1: but they're gonna do the thing that makes the most

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Speaker 1: sense for them.

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Speaker 4: And so that's like the you know, in that sense,

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Speaker 4: any of us is.

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Speaker 1: As good as anybody else to kind of try to

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Speaker 1: put ourselves into their shoes and say what's the best option? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think if you look at the best option, clearly

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Speaker 1: Taiwan is never gonna fall in their hands peacefully, and

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Speaker 1: we're not going to give up our position in the Pacific.

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Speaker 1: And if, as Eli radn or the Assistant Secretary of

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Speaker 1: Defense Asia has said, their goals to eject us from

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Speaker 1: the Western Pacific, they ain't gonna do it peacefully. They're

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Speaker 1: never going to become hedge among peacefully.

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Speaker 4: Okay. If you're gonna do it, then you're gonna you're

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Speaker 4: gonna go to war. Okay. If you're gonna go to war,

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Speaker 4: how do you do it?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 4: I mean, clearly one of the lessons of Ukraine is

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Speaker 4: go big or go home.

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Speaker 1: Don't half measure it, because that results in suboptimal outcomes,

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Speaker 1: which it's you end up in like a quagmire or

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Speaker 1: like a quicksand kind of situation. So if that's the case,

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Speaker 1: like I don't know, but you know, if I were

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Speaker 1: putting myself as a strategist or strategorist or what have you,

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Speaker 1: in in the in Beijing, I would be saying, look,

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Speaker 1: if we're gonna do this, we got to do it right.

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Speaker 1: And if that's the case, if you're going to launch

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Speaker 1: an amphibious invasion and put a gun in the face

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Speaker 1: of the Taiwan leadership, et cetera, which is the only

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Speaker 1: way to really reliably get them to give up, then

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Speaker 1: you're going to not allow the Americans, you know, basically

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Speaker 1: the opportunity to operate from sanctuary and come after you.

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Speaker 1: So you're going to try to exactly as you said,

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Speaker 1: You're going to try to drive down warning, which is

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Speaker 1: you can't hide, but you're going to hide and plain

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Speaker 1: sight in the same way that Hamas hidden plain sight

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Speaker 1: from Israel. And of course it's a different thing much

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Speaker 1: much you know, more sort of irregular warfare typing. But

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Speaker 1: at the point obtains, which is that you just make it,

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Speaker 1: and you have a lot of experience in this field,

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Speaker 1: you make things ambiguous unclear.

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Speaker 2: What I was going to ask, how do we let's say,

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Speaker 2: let's say that China declares that, and you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't know to what degree they could.

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Speaker 3: You know, they have people.

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Speaker 2: Who are fifth columnists on the island of Taiwan who

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Speaker 2: could do this or not. Probably China says, you know, well,

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Speaker 2: there's a concern about, uh, you know, about the legitimacy

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Speaker 2: of the current government in Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: On and as like a as a dear.

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Speaker 2: Neighbor and friend, We're just going over to oversee the

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Speaker 2: next Taiwanese election peacefully. And they just slowly but surely

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Speaker 2: send a bunch of troop transports.

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Speaker 3: They don't fire a shot.

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Speaker 2: They just say, you know, we're coming to We're coming

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Speaker 2: to check out what's going on there. You know, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna do a little mandate. We're gonna overview the next election.

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Speaker 2: And basically, dare the Taiwanese to start sinking vessels with

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Speaker 2: like a thousand Chinese soldiers at a time on them?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 3: I mean, how does that?

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Speaker 1: That's one thing I think that's risky for them because

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Speaker 1: then they kind of forfeit the element of military surprise.

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Speaker 4: I think the way that they.

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Speaker 1: Would be more likely or they would be better off

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Speaker 1: pursuing is like they would start doing the things that

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Speaker 1: would look like the indicators for a big invasion, a

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Speaker 1: big amphibious invasion, like operating across the median line, like

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Speaker 1: conducting amphibious exercises like desensitization.

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Speaker 3: Is what this would be, right, This is like.

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Speaker 1: Which is what they're doing. Which is what they're doing.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, I mean, we're not quite there. And

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Speaker 1: then the problem is is like, mister President, I think

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Speaker 1: this is it, and he's but here's what you have

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Speaker 1: to do? Respond, well, do I really want to do that?

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be so provocative. They're gonna accuse me of

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Speaker 1: destabilizing the situation.

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Speaker 4: I don't know. And then you missed that window. That's

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Speaker 4: what's that's what's dangerous.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna ask you for some twenty twenty four predictions

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Speaker 2: you expect anything big from China in the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: four US election year? Like if they were going to

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Speaker 2: try to do something really provocative with old man Biden

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Speaker 2: at the helm and god knows what happening here in

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Speaker 2: terms of our politics. Do you think they see a

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Speaker 2: big opening or is that too aggressive?

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Speaker 4: You?

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Speaker 3: What do you make of it?

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's too aggressive. I think I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I think the big question for them is whether they

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Speaker 1: can succeed, right, Like if you're gonna do this. You

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Speaker 1: don't want to screw up, like you don't want to

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Speaker 1: end up where you've launched a big, amphibious invasion then

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Speaker 1: you've failed.

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Speaker 4: That's like bad, bad outcome.

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Speaker 1: So the lot of that has to do more with

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Speaker 1: like military development timelines and what they think we're doing

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Speaker 1: and how they how far they think they've come across.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the people who are more sanguine about

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Speaker 1: things say, well, the PLA that the Chinese military isn't

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Speaker 1: confident yet, and I'm like, well, yeah, I mean, nobody's

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Speaker 1: ever got I mean you can remember you know what

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Speaker 1: Don Rumsfeld said to Tommy Franks. Frank said, we're not ready,

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Speaker 1: and he said, you go to war with the army

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Speaker 1: you have or maybe it was Shinseki or whoever, right,

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Speaker 1: But basically, militaries never think they're fully ready. The question

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Speaker 1: is whether political leadership thinks they're ready and whether things

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Speaker 1: are going to get better. So I think twenty fours

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Speaker 1: anything could happen. And I think they've created a political

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Speaker 1: pretext with the potential election of William Lai on Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: the deep Green candidate who they have tried to paint

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Speaker 1: as essentially pro independence of it. He's moderated his position,

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Speaker 1: but from China's point of view, So, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think the sort of smartest money still looks later

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Speaker 1: in the decade, but I think the advantages of potential

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Speaker 1: DPP election, which will they could paint as hey, these

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Speaker 1: people are never going to unify, and the deep predicament

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Speaker 1: that the Biden administration has gotten us into where we're

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Speaker 1: stretched all over the world, and they claim that they're

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Speaker 1: prioritizing China, but that's laughable. President doesn't even mention it

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Speaker 1: in his oval off address. There's only a few billion

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Speaker 1: out of one hundred zillion dollars or whatever in the

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Speaker 1: supplemental for Taiwan and Pacific Defense. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: a real possibility. I mean, you know, I mean my

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Speaker 1: view is anybody who says it's going to happen or

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Speaker 1: it's not going to happen, I don't take that seriously.

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Speaker 1: I think at this point, you know, the smartest military

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Speaker 1: leaders saying that we don't know, but we got to

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Speaker 1: be ready today tomorrow, two years, five years.

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Speaker 2: How screwed up is the Chinese economy because just even

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Speaker 2: looking at it on an ad hoc front of the

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal kind of basis.

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Speaker 3: You'll see things of just.

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Speaker 2: You would think big problems hitting China, their French state

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Speaker 2: market there, you know, their lack of growth, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: Are they in real trouble on that front or is

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Speaker 2: it just more noise that seeds or recedes into the background.

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Speaker 4: I'm trying to figure that out myself.

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Speaker 1: There's a guy named Michael Pettis who I think is

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Speaker 1: one of the best sort of sources on this, who's

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Speaker 1: actually is who called the troubles that China's going to have,

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Speaker 1: you know, and has said this is you know, predicted

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Speaker 1: this for years and he's been vindicated. But he also says, look,

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Speaker 1: the Chinese economy is not going to collapse. I think

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Speaker 1: they have deep structural problems they're going into slow down.

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Speaker 1: But from a strategic point of view, like if you're

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Speaker 1: putting money to work, it's a different question. But if

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Speaker 1: you're looking at it from a strategic point of view,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to say, look, there they're I mean,

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Speaker 1: and also they're not changing their policy. There was just

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Speaker 1: one of these work meetings, one of the Communist terms

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Speaker 1: they use for like their economic policy. Should you get

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Speaker 1: togethers with the senior leadership, and they seem to be

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Speaker 1: on a steady course. You know, they're changing a few things,

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Speaker 1: but they're not going into big stimulus. They're not stopping

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Speaker 1: the attempts to deepen economic resilience in the face of

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Speaker 1: Western pressure, et cetera. So I think from a strategic

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Speaker 1: point of view, we should expect more of more of

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Speaker 1: the same, like we shouldn't expect any fundamental change on

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Speaker 1: their behavior.

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Speaker 2: All right, I'm going to come back and talk to

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Speaker 2: you about Ukraine here in a second. But first up,

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Speaker 2: got a really long day because of chad Mode. Go

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Speaker 2: to be a Ukraine Russia expert, although I know there

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Speaker 2: are so many of them, all of a sudden, right like,

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Speaker 2: there's all these people out there who know everything about

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Speaker 2: Ukraine Russia. You know, I did get both, you know,

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Speaker 2: firsthand experience and very high level policy access for Rock

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Speaker 2: in Afghanistan, stuff that I can say transfers over very well.

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Speaker 2: And this is just sort of taking an open source,

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Speaker 2: thirty thousand foot view. When people keep telling you we're

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Speaker 2: about to win, and then every six months they have

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Speaker 2: to redo that we're about to win, and then there's

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Speaker 2: a big reversal and they say, oh no, don't worry,

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Speaker 2: we just need six more months and we're about to win,

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Speaker 2: you should be very very concerned. And on the Ukraine front,

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Speaker 2: it seems to me that after all the articles from

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Speaker 2: like last January about all the Spring offensive and the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian military is amazing, and it's so I mean, my

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Speaker 2: understanding is it's like a total stalemate, except one side

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Speaker 2: has a lot more men to throw at this than

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Speaker 2: the other side does over the long term. So what

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Speaker 2: do you see going on in Ukraine?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, sadly, I think we see essentially what

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Speaker 1: you could think of as a reversion to the mean, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: I think people really got euphoric in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: and I was, thank you and I were both skeptical

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Speaker 1: of that, and you know, got a lot of flak

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Speaker 1: for it.

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Speaker 4: But you know it's better to plan for when that.

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Speaker 2: Can I just throw out there Bridge, I was saying,

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Speaker 2: we're going to very quickly be looking at a half

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Speaker 2: a trillion to a trillion dollars of spending on this.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's underestimating the depth of the Russian military, their willingness

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Speaker 2: to fight. I was saying that in like February of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: But keep going, well, you're right man, Well, I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's essentially look, mass attrition resolve.

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Speaker 4: These basic factors matter.

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Speaker 1: The Russians have adapted too, So I think Honestly, what

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Speaker 1: we're looking at it might be stalemate might actually be

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Speaker 1: a relatively good outcome compared to some of the alternatives.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to I don't know, but

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are having real difficulty and they're they're they're

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Speaker 1: mobilizing a lot of men who are now like the

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Speaker 1: median age is like forty three.

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Speaker 4: So this is this is a very tough situation.

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Speaker 1: I mean, and I think you know my view and

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Speaker 1: I think your view as well, has been that, look,

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Speaker 1: the political support, especially when you look at the context

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Speaker 1: of twenty years and the GWAT and all this stuff.

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Speaker 4: It's not endless.

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Speaker 1: And a lot of like I think Hawk types of

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Speaker 1: their kind of theory of mobilizing the American people has

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Speaker 1: been the beatings will continue until morale improves. And my

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Speaker 1: view is like, look, obviously the direction of travel is

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Speaker 1: going to be greater skepticism, especially as I mean, I've

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Speaker 1: just struck like one thing, honestly, and I don't mean

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Speaker 1: to be trite, but like, there were Ukrainian flags like

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Speaker 1: everywhere in Washington, DC at the beginning of the war,

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Speaker 1: and now it's very hard to find them, actually, and

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking to myself, well, did these people did the

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Speaker 1: war end?

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Speaker 4: No?

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Speaker 1: You know, no, it's become like it's something that's not

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Speaker 1: as fashionable anymore. There's the Middle Least war. Other things

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Speaker 1: are going on, but like the war's going on, and

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Speaker 1: that's often how wars between determined states are are resolved.

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Speaker 1: And I think, unfortunately that my view is that the

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Speaker 1: Russians are actually are a serious threat. They're not going

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Speaker 1: to roll all the way do the channel, but if

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Speaker 1: you're an Eastern NATO, you better take care. And I

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Speaker 1: mean you should not take what Joe Biden or George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush for that matter said to the Bank because the

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Speaker 1: American people and then this is what's being shown.

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Speaker 4: I mean, even very very very like pro Ukraine War Center,

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Speaker 4: I've been struck. You probably know this too.

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Speaker 1: Over the last couple of months have like done a

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Speaker 1: remarkable oneint eighty, you know, in connection with the border issue,

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Speaker 1: but also just I mean, that tells you where the

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Speaker 1: American people. I mean, you can do all the biased

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Speaker 1: polling you want, but that tells you more than anything else.

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Speaker 1: These guys are very astute political judges of where the

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Speaker 1: American people's thinking on this issue is going. And I

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Speaker 1: think that the American people are rightly saying like this

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Speaker 1: is likely to go on at at some length, and

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Speaker 1: we've got to be more realistic about it. I Mean,

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Speaker 1: my view the whole time has been, you know, be

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Speaker 1: realistic and try to deal with the situation when you're

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Speaker 1: in a better position, you know, both from a military

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Speaker 1: point of view in terms of focusing on China, but

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Speaker 1: also politically, what can be realistically be expected in the context.

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Speaker 2: How do we end this thing or how is it ended? Perhaps,

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Speaker 2: and we try to bring that about in whatever way

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Speaker 2: that we can, because it's really not ours to end, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think, look, the Russians, I really think

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Speaker 1: they've got the advantage still or that they're going into

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Speaker 1: the direction of the advantage. So I don't think as

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Speaker 1: hopeful as I mean, I would love to if there

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Speaker 1: were a political suitsolution on the table that were tenable,

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Speaker 1: but I just don't think there might have been early

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Speaker 1: in the conflict, and if that is true, you know,

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Speaker 1: the story is about you know, a month in there

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Speaker 1: was a deal. I mean, that will be a real

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Speaker 1: tragedy and that will be rude going forward. If there

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Speaker 1: was a deal, I don't know all the details. I

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Speaker 1: think Unfortunately. The way it's going to be is probably

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are going to be able to be strong

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Speaker 1: and stout enough that ultimately the Russians decide it's not

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Speaker 1: worth it to keep going.

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Speaker 4: But I don't think we're in that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, nineteen fifty one the Americans and

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Speaker 1: the Chinese and so forth started negotiating, only stop two

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Speaker 1: years later. So I think this is where we don't

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Speaker 1: have the resources, given the China threat and other things

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Speaker 1: obviously the border et cetera that's going on to provide

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Speaker 1: Ukraine the support that we haven't. I think the Europeans

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Speaker 1: need to step up, and it's well within their capacity

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Speaker 1: to do so. And you know it's going to be

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Speaker 1: up to in a sense. Is that's going to determine.

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Speaker 1: If the Europeans step up and give the Ukrainians a

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Speaker 1: lot of money build up their defense industry, then I

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Speaker 1: think more optimistic warriams are tenable. If they don't, then

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Speaker 1: it's going to be really tough.

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Speaker 2: Before we let you go, I want to come back

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Speaker 2: and ask you Bridge about a place anywhere in the

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Speaker 2: world that you think going into twenty twenty four in

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Speaker 2: this next year could be a real flashpoint as in

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Speaker 2: essentially a place that people should keep an eye on

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Speaker 2: because things could really escalate. But for first up, you know,

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Speaker 2: when President Biden botched the Afghan withdrawal in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: it sent a message to the world that we were

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00:19:37,097 --> 00:19:39,417
Speaker 2: weak and we wouldn't protect our allies. Six months later,

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00:19:39,497 --> 00:19:42,377
Speaker 2: Russia invaded Ukraine. We're just talking about this, and now

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00:19:42,417 --> 00:19:44,537
Speaker 2: we're witnessing a new war in the Middle East that

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00:19:44,697 --> 00:19:48,497
Speaker 2: is escalating quickly and could bring in outside combatants. But

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Speaker 2: former Wall Street inside our Tika Tuwari says, all this

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Speaker 2: global instability, it's actually not the single biggest threat that

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Speaker 2: the United States faces. Tika believes, and he's a guy

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Speaker 2: who's been on Wall Street a long time, that the

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Speaker 2: collapse of the US dollar is ultimately our greatest vulnerability.

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Speaker 3: Beach Research Group Bridge.

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Speaker 2: Where are you keeping an eye on the globe for

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00:20:27,457 --> 00:20:29,537
Speaker 2: things could get out of hand fast here. That's not

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Speaker 2: you know, Ukraine, China or Israel, Hamas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Taiwan is of course the big one. But

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Speaker 1: I would say the Korean Peninsula. I mean, there is

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Speaker 1: a real ticking time bomb there late, which is that

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Speaker 1: the North Koreans have been developing both nuclear weapons and

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Speaker 1: an ICBM, basically a missile that can hit the content

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Speaker 1: on the United States, and they're basically at this point,

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Speaker 1: I think they're at the point where we need to

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Speaker 1: assume that they can hit the American homeland. And the

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Speaker 1: basic problem, to put it kind of, you know, tightly,

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Speaker 1: is that it doesn't make sense for Americans to lose

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Speaker 1: multiple cities in our country to prevent North Korea, which

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Speaker 1: is a tiny economy, nasty group leadership obviously, but not

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Speaker 1: a major to the United States itself, to lose multiple

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Speaker 1: cities over something in North Korea is doing. It is

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Speaker 1: a very direct threat to South Korea and to some

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Speaker 1: degree Japan as well. Our extended deterrents are basic saying

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Speaker 1: to the South Koreans, hey, we will you know, if

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Speaker 1: North Korea use a nuker weapon against you, we will

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Speaker 1: use a NUCA weapon back That made sense when the

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Speaker 1: North Koreans couldn't hit US at home. Now that they can,

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Speaker 1: that's under I think, effectively intolerable pressure. The North Koreans

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Speaker 1: are increasingly knowing that Soul, the South Koreans are increasingly

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Speaker 1: known about. The administration is trying to do basically just

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Speaker 1: keep the problem away. They basically sent some submarines. They've

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Speaker 1: said we're going to consult more with South Korea. That's

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Speaker 1: moving deck chairs on the Titanic. This is a big

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Speaker 1: potential problem, especially given that and you see this all

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Speaker 1: around the world. Countries are now saying, hey, Russia and China,

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Speaker 1: if I want to push against the Americans and their allies,

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Speaker 1: I got backers right like the North. The Russians and

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Speaker 1: the Chinese have backed the North Koreans up in the

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Speaker 1: UN Security Council. Used to be that they would put

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Speaker 1: some pressure on the North Koreans. So I think this

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Speaker 1: is another wild card that's to see very directly connected

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Speaker 1: to China as well and Russia too. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: North Koreans are helping the Russians and vice versa. But

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Speaker 1: that's another wildcard that I think is very dangerous.

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Speaker 2: Ridge Colby of the Marathon Initiative. Happy New Year, Bridge.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully the world doesn't go to hell next year and

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Speaker 2: we can enjoy it holiday.

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Speaker 3: Good to see you.

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Speaker 4: Merry Christmas, all right, we see you boye