1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: Single best idea, really interesting today, great equity market coverage GM. 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 2: Martin Adams was really quite sophisticated about the linkage between 4 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: technical analysis, fundamental and even economics. David Rosenberg joined us 5 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 2: from Canada. Thank you to his comments on King Charles speech. 6 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 2: He said the Canadian public really wasn't grabbed by the speech. 7 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: It was much more about the elites and the politicians 8 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 2: and all that. Katie Kaminski on trend Out at ELF 9 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: Simplex in Boston was really quite good, saying there is 10 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: beginning to be elements of a trend in the equity market. 11 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 2: We spoke on foreign Exchange with Jordan Rochester of Missouo 12 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 2: and what's so great about the shop is they have 13 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: dominic constant Steve Shudo and Jordan Rochester. I asked Jordan Rochester, 14 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 2: how do you piece those three minds together. 15 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 3: What we think is there's gonna be no Fed cuts 16 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 3: this year. Steve's got one and a half percent GDP forecast, 17 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 3: but are three and a half percent inflation, So your 18 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 3: noomenal's at five and the Fed's going to be looking 19 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 3: at three and a half inflation. That's not an environment 20 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 3: where you're cutting rates, you need to have really big 21 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 3: weakness in the labor market to do so. However, what 22 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 3: Constant would point out, and what I point out too, 23 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 3: is that this market is very much inclined to say 24 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 3: that there's a very high bar to get to get 25 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 3: this market to think hikes are the next move by 26 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 3: the Fed. The market will continue to think that cuts 27 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 3: the next move, but we are of the view it 28 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 3: won't happen this year. So what that means for trades 29 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 3: is we like front end flatteners, So price out the 30 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 3: rate cuts for this year, pricing more cuts for next year, 31 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 3: because that's how this market is biased. So we have 32 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 3: a steep We're gonna have a flattening of the curve. 33 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 3: More cuts, price for twenty twenty six, less for twenty five. 34 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 2: Jordan Rochester with Missoui there in the summer is as 35 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 2: he says, no FED rate cuts this year boring. We'll 36 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 2: off to see on that. But also then he is 37 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 2: euro out to one twenty stronger euro, not immediately, but 38 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: a stronger euro through two thousand and twenty five. Nancy 39 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: Lazarre was with us with Piper Sandler. She's definitive in 40 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 2: the business, and she was absolutely blistering about capital spending. 41 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 1: Here, Nancy Lazzar, First, what's given is nominal GDP. That's 42 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 1: what's created by both monetary and physical policy. And nominal 43 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: GDP growth has been about five percent next year? Could 44 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: it move up to something a little bit more than that. Yes, 45 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: I've got to make some new stop. 46 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 2: Are you saying six percent nominal GDP? 47 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: Well, that's historically what the peak growth rate had been 48 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: prior to the GFC. That's not out of the question 49 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: going forward, as you could in place tax reform, as 50 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: you put in place full appreciation on capex, manufacturing structures 51 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: and also manufacturing equipment. Capital spending is just underappreciated as 52 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: the drive of growth. Without businesses and reinvesting in a country, 53 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: you end up with stagnation, which is what happened to 54 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: us after China joined WTO. 55 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 2: I can't say how unusual that conversation is. If the 56 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 2: core equation is our nation's output, our GDP, howeve you 57 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: measure it is consumption seventy percent, investment eleven maybe thirteen percent. 58 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 2: Then you got government spending and all the uproar over 59 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 2: the debt and the deficit, and you bolt on the 60 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: back end, export, imports and all. How little within financial 61 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 2: media we speak about the eye investment and that's where 62 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 2: Nancy Lazar is completely focused. Is the idea, you can't 63 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 2: create jobs in any nation unless you have capital investment, 64 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 2: capital spending. Just brilliant Nancy Lazar with Piper Sandler across 65 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: the nation on your commute. Don't forget serious XM Channel 66 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 2: one twenty one, old school technlogy on YouTube, Subscribe to 67 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg podcasts and out at YouTube podcasts. It's a single 68 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 2: best idea MHM.