Speaker 1: Countdown with Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. This
Speaker 1: is a bonus, bite sized bullet edition of Countdown, and
Speaker 1: there are early signs of a potential title wave of
Speaker 1: disastrous polling indicators for convicted felon Donald Trump after he
Speaker 1: was found guilty of all thirty four felony charges Thursday.
Speaker 1: Here in New York, ten percent of registered GOP voters
Speaker 1: tell pollsters they are now less likely to vote for Trump.
Speaker 1: More startlingly, fifteen percent of Republicans eight percent of those
Speaker 1: identifying as true Trump supporters, say he should now drop
Speaker 1: out of the presidential race. These are from separate polls
Speaker 1: by IPSOS for Reuters by Morning Consult Reuters Polling Thursday
Speaker 1: and Friday, and in the Reuters poll, ten percent of
Speaker 1: Republican registered voters say they are now less likely to
Speaker 1: vote for Trump if even half of those if five
Speaker 1: percent actually do not vote for him. Using Trump's twenty
Speaker 1: twenty vote totals, he just lost seven and a half
Speaker 1: million votes. If spread evenly across the country, he just
Speaker 1: lost twelve Electoral College votes or more. Among independent registered voters,
Speaker 1: twenty five percent told Reuters that Trump's conviction makes them
Speaker 1: less likely to support him in November. Remember yesterday I
Speaker 1: observed that just two percent of Trump's GOP support in
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, peeling away from him would have costume Michigan, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: Wisconsin and the election. The angry data. In the Reuter's poll,
Speaker 1: eighteen percent of Independence said they were now more likely
Speaker 1: to vote for him after the convictions. Thirty five percent
Speaker 1: of Republicans said the same thing, more likely to vote
Speaker 1: for him. But what does that number actually mean? They're
Speaker 1: going to vote twice for him? They might try. The
Speaker 1: Daily Consult polling is from Friday exclusively, and in it
Speaker 1: forty nine percent of Independence, fifteen percent of Republicans, eight
Speaker 1: percent of self styled Trump supporters say he should now
Speaker 1: drop out end his campaign after the convictions. Those are
Speaker 1: big numbers. The caveats what to ask the voters is
Speaker 1: not yet solidified even in the pollsters' minds. Daily Consuls
Speaker 1: asked if he should drop out, but did not ask
Speaker 1: its voters and police if they were less likely to
Speaker 1: vote for him now. Reuters asked if they wouldn't vote
Speaker 1: for him, but did not ask if he should drop out.
Speaker 1: More significantly, there is such a thing as verdict shock
Speaker 1: and scandal shock, and there is such a thing as
Speaker 1: telling polsters whatever you think makes you not look like
Speaker 1: a jerk. And there is still the Tephlon Dawn effect.
Speaker 1: On the morning of October two, twenty sixteen, according to
Speaker 1: the right leaning average of polls by Real Clear Politics,
Speaker 1: Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by two and a half points.
Speaker 1: On October seventh, the access Huh Hollywood Grabbed Them video
Speaker 1: was revealed. By October thirteenth, in that same polling average,
Speaker 1: Trump nearly trailed by seven points. He had taken a
Speaker 1: polling hit of four point two points one month and
Speaker 1: a day after the tape came out. He was elected president.
Speaker 1: Seventy percent of voters told exit posters that they thought
Speaker 1: Trump's treatment of women was troubling, and twenty nine percent
Speaker 1: of them voted for him anyway. So today's poll numbers
Speaker 1: ten percent of registered GOP voters say they are now
Speaker 1: less likely to vote for him, eight percent of those
Speaker 1: identifying as Trump supporters, and fifteen percent of Republicans saying
Speaker 1: he should drop out. Those numbers are disastrous, but soft.
Speaker 1: The big picture, Reuter's overall has Biden leading forty one
Speaker 1: thirty nine. The Daily Consult overall is Biden forty five
Speaker 1: forty four. These new results obviously not baked into the
Speaker 1: general public perception, but ABC's five point thirty eight reported
Speaker 1: late Friday. A few posters have also asked two versions
Speaker 1: of the standard who will you vote for question in
Speaker 1: recent weeks, one straightforward one and one that asked respondents
Speaker 1: who they would vote for if Trump was convicted in
Speaker 1: the New York case. On average, Trump went from leading
Speaker 1: by one percentage point in these polls without considering the
Speaker 1: conviction to trailing by six points with it. That would
Speaker 1: mean he's going to take a seven point hit. We
Speaker 1: don't know that fully, because the two polls I've been
Speaker 1: quoting here are basically all we've seen because pollsters, like
Speaker 1: everybody else in political media and politics generally, are too
Speaker 1: lazy to work on the weekends. Some incidentals from both
Speaker 1: of these polls. Sixty percent of registered voters are telling
Speaker 1: Reuters it is important that the three remaining trials take
Speaker 1: place before the election. Thirty nine percent say it's not
Speaker 1: important that they do so. Of course, their opinion seems
Speaker 1: to be far less important than that of the Supreme
Speaker 1: Court and Eileen Cannon, who were not polled by either
Speaker 1: Morning consult or Reuters. In the Morning Consult poll, fifty
Speaker 1: four percent approved of the thirty four felony convictions. Fifty
Speaker 1: four percent believe Trump committed a crime. Morning Consult also
Speaker 1: finds forty four percent of voters think he should go
Speaker 1: to the slammer, forty nine percent say probation is sufficient,
Speaker 1: sixty nine percent wants some kind of monetary fine. Obviously,
Speaker 1: that would include those who want it in addition to
Speaker 1: jail or probation. Incredibly, not one key crosstab in either
Speaker 1: poll comes up with the number thirty four. However, late
Speaker 1: Friday night, the Biden campaign seemed to shake off its
Speaker 1: initial reticence, and it put out a pretty damn funny
Speaker 1: list of thirty four highlights from what it called the
Speaker 1: unhinged speech Friday afternoon, by quote, convicted felon Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: The fact that it is willing the Biden campaign, that is,
Speaker 1: it is willing to use that phrase convicted felon Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: may be as important as anything that comes out in
Speaker 1: the polls. I will not read you all thirty four items.
Speaker 1: They are available everywhere. Number eleven was Trump saying, let
Speaker 1: me give you the good news and their take on it.
Speaker 1: There was no good news. And of course number eighteen,
Speaker 1: you saw what happened to some of the witnesses that
Speaker 1: were on our side. They were literally crucified by this
Speaker 1: man who looks like an angel, but he's really a devil.
Speaker 1: He looks so nice and soft. The Biden campaign response
Speaker 1: to that number eighteen, whoa and number thirteen quote Trump
Speaker 1: the unselect committee of thugs. The Biden response to be honest,
Speaker 1: fantastic fantasy football team name and as always convicted felon.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has responded not to the polling but to
Speaker 1: the convictions with his usual calm and never pouring gasoline
Speaker 1: on a raging fire. From his fundraising text at noon
Speaker 1: Eastern today, quote from Trump, they want me behind bars.
Speaker 1: They want me dead mile. On the other hand, it
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be both. This has been a bonus,
Speaker 1: bite sized bulletin edition of Countdown. It's a new briefer
Speaker 1: format in addition to the regular episodes. Because of that,
Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you to do me a favor
Speaker 1: and forward this to somebody who is unaware of it
Speaker 1: or unfamiliar with the podcast, and to recap the headlines
Speaker 1: that justify doing this. The first two significant polls to
Speaker 1: follow Trump's conviction Thursday on thirty four felony charges in
Speaker 1: New York suggest that at least from the moment, ten
Speaker 1: percent of registered Republicans say they are now less likely
Speaker 1: to vote for him, eight percent of those identifying as
Speaker 1: Trump supporters, and fifteen percent of Republicans say he should
Speaker 1: end his presidential campaign and drop out now. Full details
Speaker 1: on the polling and all the other weekend developments in
Speaker 1: the next full length daily Countdown podcast, posting late Monday
Speaker 1: night and Tuesday morning till then. I'm Keith Olderman. Good Day,
Speaker 1: good night, and good luck. Countdown with Keith Olderman is
Speaker 1: a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.