1 00:00:04,795 --> 00:00:14,395 Speaker 1: Countdown with Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. This 2 00:00:14,595 --> 00:00:17,795 Speaker 1: is a bonus, bite sized bullet edition of Countdown, and 3 00:00:17,835 --> 00:00:21,195 Speaker 1: there are early signs of a potential title wave of 4 00:00:21,315 --> 00:00:25,595 Speaker 1: disastrous polling indicators for convicted felon Donald Trump after he 5 00:00:25,675 --> 00:00:28,435 Speaker 1: was found guilty of all thirty four felony charges Thursday. 6 00:00:28,435 --> 00:00:33,075 Speaker 1: Here in New York, ten percent of registered GOP voters 7 00:00:33,155 --> 00:00:36,915 Speaker 1: tell pollsters they are now less likely to vote for Trump. 8 00:00:37,235 --> 00:00:41,955 Speaker 1: More startlingly, fifteen percent of Republicans eight percent of those 9 00:00:42,075 --> 00:00:46,635 Speaker 1: identifying as true Trump supporters, say he should now drop 10 00:00:46,795 --> 00:00:50,435 Speaker 1: out of the presidential race. These are from separate polls 11 00:00:50,475 --> 00:00:55,435 Speaker 1: by IPSOS for Reuters by Morning Consult Reuters Polling Thursday 12 00:00:55,435 --> 00:00:57,635 Speaker 1: and Friday, and in the Reuters poll, ten percent of 13 00:00:57,675 --> 00:01:00,915 Speaker 1: Republican registered voters say they are now less likely to 14 00:01:00,995 --> 00:01:04,195 Speaker 1: vote for Trump if even half of those if five 15 00:01:04,275 --> 00:01:07,595 Speaker 1: percent actually do not vote for him. Using Trump's twenty 16 00:01:07,595 --> 00:01:10,675 Speaker 1: twenty vote totals, he just lost seven and a half 17 00:01:10,915 --> 00:01:14,995 Speaker 1: million votes. If spread evenly across the country, he just 18 00:01:15,115 --> 00:01:21,035 Speaker 1: lost twelve Electoral College votes or more. Among independent registered voters, 19 00:01:21,075 --> 00:01:24,875 Speaker 1: twenty five percent told Reuters that Trump's conviction makes them 20 00:01:24,955 --> 00:01:28,355 Speaker 1: less likely to support him in November. Remember yesterday I 21 00:01:28,395 --> 00:01:31,515 Speaker 1: observed that just two percent of Trump's GOP support in 22 00:01:31,555 --> 00:01:37,155 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, peeling away from him would have costume Michigan, Pennsylvania, 23 00:01:37,195 --> 00:01:42,155 Speaker 1: Wisconsin and the election. The angry data. In the Reuter's poll, 24 00:01:42,515 --> 00:01:45,355 Speaker 1: eighteen percent of Independence said they were now more likely 25 00:01:45,395 --> 00:01:48,035 Speaker 1: to vote for him after the convictions. Thirty five percent 26 00:01:48,075 --> 00:01:51,075 Speaker 1: of Republicans said the same thing, more likely to vote 27 00:01:51,115 --> 00:01:54,355 Speaker 1: for him. But what does that number actually mean? They're 28 00:01:54,395 --> 00:01:58,035 Speaker 1: going to vote twice for him? They might try. The 29 00:01:58,155 --> 00:02:01,675 Speaker 1: Daily Consult polling is from Friday exclusively, and in it 30 00:02:02,395 --> 00:02:06,275 Speaker 1: forty nine percent of Independence, fifteen percent of Republicans, eight 31 00:02:06,315 --> 00:02:09,635 Speaker 1: percent of self styled Trump supporters say he should now 32 00:02:10,195 --> 00:02:15,715 Speaker 1: drop out end his campaign after the convictions. Those are 33 00:02:15,755 --> 00:02:19,675 Speaker 1: big numbers. The caveats what to ask the voters is 34 00:02:19,755 --> 00:02:23,675 Speaker 1: not yet solidified even in the pollsters' minds. Daily Consuls 35 00:02:23,675 --> 00:02:26,115 Speaker 1: asked if he should drop out, but did not ask 36 00:02:26,195 --> 00:02:29,875 Speaker 1: its voters and police if they were less likely to 37 00:02:29,915 --> 00:02:32,595 Speaker 1: vote for him now. Reuters asked if they wouldn't vote 38 00:02:32,595 --> 00:02:34,995 Speaker 1: for him, but did not ask if he should drop out. 39 00:02:35,755 --> 00:02:39,875 Speaker 1: More significantly, there is such a thing as verdict shock 40 00:02:40,355 --> 00:02:43,315 Speaker 1: and scandal shock, and there is such a thing as 41 00:02:43,355 --> 00:02:46,555 Speaker 1: telling polsters whatever you think makes you not look like 42 00:02:46,635 --> 00:02:50,595 Speaker 1: a jerk. And there is still the Tephlon Dawn effect. 43 00:02:51,195 --> 00:02:54,835 Speaker 1: On the morning of October two, twenty sixteen, according to 44 00:02:54,875 --> 00:02:58,395 Speaker 1: the right leaning average of polls by Real Clear Politics, 45 00:02:58,675 --> 00:03:01,715 Speaker 1: Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by two and a half points. 46 00:03:02,315 --> 00:03:06,075 Speaker 1: On October seventh, the access Huh Hollywood Grabbed Them video 47 00:03:06,235 --> 00:03:10,035 Speaker 1: was revealed. By October thirteenth, in that same polling average, 48 00:03:10,115 --> 00:03:13,515 Speaker 1: Trump nearly trailed by seven points. He had taken a 49 00:03:13,595 --> 00:03:17,395 Speaker 1: polling hit of four point two points one month and 50 00:03:17,475 --> 00:03:21,675 Speaker 1: a day after the tape came out. He was elected president. 51 00:03:22,355 --> 00:03:25,515 Speaker 1: Seventy percent of voters told exit posters that they thought 52 00:03:25,515 --> 00:03:29,275 Speaker 1: Trump's treatment of women was troubling, and twenty nine percent 53 00:03:29,275 --> 00:03:33,235 Speaker 1: of them voted for him anyway. So today's poll numbers 54 00:03:33,595 --> 00:03:36,155 Speaker 1: ten percent of registered GOP voters say they are now 55 00:03:36,235 --> 00:03:38,515 Speaker 1: less likely to vote for him, eight percent of those 56 00:03:38,555 --> 00:03:42,195 Speaker 1: identifying as Trump supporters, and fifteen percent of Republicans saying 57 00:03:42,195 --> 00:03:48,355 Speaker 1: he should drop out. Those numbers are disastrous, but soft. 58 00:03:48,675 --> 00:03:52,595 Speaker 1: The big picture, Reuter's overall has Biden leading forty one 59 00:03:52,755 --> 00:03:56,715 Speaker 1: thirty nine. The Daily Consult overall is Biden forty five 60 00:03:56,835 --> 00:04:00,955 Speaker 1: forty four. These new results obviously not baked into the 61 00:04:00,995 --> 00:04:05,795 Speaker 1: general public perception, but ABC's five point thirty eight reported 62 00:04:05,875 --> 00:04:09,075 Speaker 1: late Friday. A few posters have also asked two versions 63 00:04:09,115 --> 00:04:11,715 Speaker 1: of the standard who will you vote for question in 64 00:04:11,755 --> 00:04:15,995 Speaker 1: recent weeks, one straightforward one and one that asked respondents 65 00:04:15,995 --> 00:04:18,995 Speaker 1: who they would vote for if Trump was convicted in 66 00:04:19,035 --> 00:04:22,035 Speaker 1: the New York case. On average, Trump went from leading 67 00:04:22,435 --> 00:04:25,915 Speaker 1: by one percentage point in these polls without considering the 68 00:04:25,915 --> 00:04:30,035 Speaker 1: conviction to trailing by six points with it. That would 69 00:04:30,115 --> 00:04:32,875 Speaker 1: mean he's going to take a seven point hit. We 70 00:04:32,995 --> 00:04:35,715 Speaker 1: don't know that fully, because the two polls I've been 71 00:04:35,755 --> 00:04:39,675 Speaker 1: quoting here are basically all we've seen because pollsters, like 72 00:04:39,715 --> 00:04:43,635 Speaker 1: everybody else in political media and politics generally, are too 73 00:04:43,755 --> 00:04:47,595 Speaker 1: lazy to work on the weekends. Some incidentals from both 74 00:04:47,635 --> 00:04:50,955 Speaker 1: of these polls. Sixty percent of registered voters are telling 75 00:04:50,995 --> 00:04:55,435 Speaker 1: Reuters it is important that the three remaining trials take 76 00:04:55,555 --> 00:04:58,435 Speaker 1: place before the election. Thirty nine percent say it's not 77 00:04:58,515 --> 00:05:01,435 Speaker 1: important that they do so. Of course, their opinion seems 78 00:05:01,475 --> 00:05:03,275 Speaker 1: to be far less important than that of the Supreme 79 00:05:03,275 --> 00:05:05,915 Speaker 1: Court and Eileen Cannon, who were not polled by either 80 00:05:05,995 --> 00:05:10,195 Speaker 1: Morning consult or Reuters. In the Morning Consult poll, fifty 81 00:05:10,235 --> 00:05:13,995 Speaker 1: four percent approved of the thirty four felony convictions. Fifty 82 00:05:14,035 --> 00:05:17,835 Speaker 1: four percent believe Trump committed a crime. Morning Consult also 83 00:05:17,915 --> 00:05:20,395 Speaker 1: finds forty four percent of voters think he should go 84 00:05:20,435 --> 00:05:24,355 Speaker 1: to the slammer, forty nine percent say probation is sufficient, 85 00:05:24,675 --> 00:05:28,035 Speaker 1: sixty nine percent wants some kind of monetary fine. Obviously, 86 00:05:28,115 --> 00:05:30,155 Speaker 1: that would include those who want it in addition to 87 00:05:30,275 --> 00:05:36,075 Speaker 1: jail or probation. Incredibly, not one key crosstab in either 88 00:05:36,195 --> 00:05:40,955 Speaker 1: poll comes up with the number thirty four. However, late 89 00:05:40,995 --> 00:05:43,875 Speaker 1: Friday night, the Biden campaign seemed to shake off its 90 00:05:43,915 --> 00:05:46,875 Speaker 1: initial reticence, and it put out a pretty damn funny 91 00:05:46,875 --> 00:05:50,155 Speaker 1: list of thirty four highlights from what it called the 92 00:05:50,395 --> 00:05:56,435 Speaker 1: unhinged speech Friday afternoon, by quote, convicted felon Donald Trump. 93 00:05:56,755 --> 00:05:59,555 Speaker 1: The fact that it is willing the Biden campaign, that is, 94 00:05:59,915 --> 00:06:04,195 Speaker 1: it is willing to use that phrase convicted felon Donald Trump, 95 00:06:04,395 --> 00:06:07,075 Speaker 1: may be as important as anything that comes out in 96 00:06:07,115 --> 00:06:10,155 Speaker 1: the polls. I will not read you all thirty four items. 97 00:06:10,155 --> 00:06:14,035 Speaker 1: They are available everywhere. Number eleven was Trump saying, let 98 00:06:14,075 --> 00:06:16,515 Speaker 1: me give you the good news and their take on it. 99 00:06:16,675 --> 00:06:19,675 Speaker 1: There was no good news. And of course number eighteen, 100 00:06:20,275 --> 00:06:22,395 Speaker 1: you saw what happened to some of the witnesses that 101 00:06:22,435 --> 00:06:25,755 Speaker 1: were on our side. They were literally crucified by this 102 00:06:25,875 --> 00:06:28,435 Speaker 1: man who looks like an angel, but he's really a devil. 103 00:06:28,675 --> 00:06:32,155 Speaker 1: He looks so nice and soft. The Biden campaign response 104 00:06:32,195 --> 00:06:37,795 Speaker 1: to that number eighteen, whoa and number thirteen quote Trump 105 00:06:37,995 --> 00:06:42,715 Speaker 1: the unselect committee of thugs. The Biden response to be honest, 106 00:06:43,235 --> 00:06:48,915 Speaker 1: fantastic fantasy football team name and as always convicted felon. 107 00:06:48,995 --> 00:06:51,675 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has responded not to the polling but to 108 00:06:51,715 --> 00:06:55,635 Speaker 1: the convictions with his usual calm and never pouring gasoline 109 00:06:55,635 --> 00:06:59,515 Speaker 1: on a raging fire. From his fundraising text at noon 110 00:06:59,635 --> 00:07:04,435 Speaker 1: Eastern today, quote from Trump, they want me behind bars. 111 00:07:05,035 --> 00:07:09,115 Speaker 1: They want me dead mile. On the other hand, it 112 00:07:09,155 --> 00:07:12,395 Speaker 1: doesn't have to be both. This has been a bonus, 113 00:07:12,435 --> 00:07:15,755 Speaker 1: bite sized bulletin edition of Countdown. It's a new briefer 114 00:07:15,835 --> 00:07:18,675 Speaker 1: format in addition to the regular episodes. Because of that, 115 00:07:18,715 --> 00:07:20,115 Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you to do me a favor 116 00:07:20,475 --> 00:07:23,355 Speaker 1: and forward this to somebody who is unaware of it 117 00:07:23,875 --> 00:07:26,795 Speaker 1: or unfamiliar with the podcast, and to recap the headlines 118 00:07:27,115 --> 00:07:31,395 Speaker 1: that justify doing this. The first two significant polls to 119 00:07:31,555 --> 00:07:34,635 Speaker 1: follow Trump's conviction Thursday on thirty four felony charges in 120 00:07:34,675 --> 00:07:37,435 Speaker 1: New York suggest that at least from the moment, ten 121 00:07:37,515 --> 00:07:41,195 Speaker 1: percent of registered Republicans say they are now less likely 122 00:07:41,235 --> 00:07:43,995 Speaker 1: to vote for him, eight percent of those identifying as 123 00:07:44,035 --> 00:07:48,035 Speaker 1: Trump supporters, and fifteen percent of Republicans say he should 124 00:07:48,235 --> 00:07:53,315 Speaker 1: end his presidential campaign and drop out now. Full details 125 00:07:53,355 --> 00:07:55,475 Speaker 1: on the polling and all the other weekend developments in 126 00:07:55,515 --> 00:07:58,955 Speaker 1: the next full length daily Countdown podcast, posting late Monday 127 00:07:59,035 --> 00:08:02,275 Speaker 1: night and Tuesday morning till then. I'm Keith Olderman. Good Day, 128 00:08:02,475 --> 00:08:15,315 Speaker 1: good night, and good luck. Countdown with Keith Olderman is 129 00:08:15,355 --> 00:08:20,155 Speaker 1: a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit 130 00:08:20,195 --> 00:08:24,875 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.