Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Speaker 1: A what's up everybody. It's me Joey Pa Joe Pisapia
Speaker 1: and welcome to betting pros and we are here today
Speaker 1: to take you through the American League. That's right, win totals, baby,
Speaker 1: it is me, it is Dan Harris, and it is
Speaker 1: you and Dan. We just did a very successful National
Speaker 1: League pod. If people missed it, they can go back
Speaker 1: and listen to it, obviously on demand wherever they get
Speaker 1: their podcasts. But it's time to focus on the American
Speaker 1: League today and the win totals there where the d
Speaker 1: H still lives and breathes where eventually we'll come back
Speaker 1: to the National League, I believe. But that's the big difference.
Speaker 1: And the differences too. We've got some teams, some juggernaut teams,
Speaker 1: especially in the New York Yankees, and a few other
Speaker 1: ones as well. But this seems a little bit more
Speaker 1: maybe open to an interpretation with some of these win totals.
Speaker 1: I think there might be some more variance here as
Speaker 1: we're looking at the American League. So welcome to the
Speaker 1: show today, my friend. How are you.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well, I'm doing well, yeah, these totals.
Speaker 3: Some of them are tough. I have a couple of
Speaker 3: ones that I really really like.
Speaker 2: I'm going to be interested to hear what you have
Speaker 2: to say about them, But a lot of them it's
Speaker 2: kind of like, I don't know, like this easily could
Speaker 2: be like ten games over, ten games under, and I
Speaker 2: really have no idea, which Twyileen. So I'm excited to
Speaker 2: talk about these today for sure, because you're right, there
Speaker 2: are a lot of places that.
Speaker 3: We really need to dive into the number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you're looking to dive into these numbers,
Speaker 1: make sure you hit up Betting Pros because that's the
Speaker 1: site for you. It's our extension of Fantasy Pros and
Speaker 1: obviously it's for all your betting information. They do a
Speaker 1: fantastic job here of taking all the different sites, all
Speaker 1: the different win totals. You could see everything, look at
Speaker 1: where the values are on the board, and make your
Speaker 1: good informed decisions. And that's what we're about here, a
Speaker 1: little entertainment, a little information, a lottle of this, a
Speaker 1: little of that, and we got you covered here on
Speaker 1: Betting Pros. So let's start. Let's start with the Yankees,
Speaker 1: the team that is either loved or hated, depending on
Speaker 1: what side of the aisle you're on. But the win
Speaker 1: total for the Yankees big time expectations as always, And
Speaker 1: that's the thing with these big teams, whether it be
Speaker 1: in football, the Dallas Cowboys that have big followings, you know,
Speaker 1: certain teams, the Yankees, you're always gonna have a premium
Speaker 1: because of the kind of team they are, the big
Speaker 1: base fan base. So the aggregate here is ninety five
Speaker 1: and a half. That's about what you're getting at most
Speaker 1: spots for the New York Yankees. Now what's interesting about
Speaker 1: this is you look at them on paper, you see
Speaker 1: the talent, it's the rotation. I think that's got more questions.
Speaker 1: You've got Garret Cole at the top, no questions about him,
Speaker 1: But after that, how many ing is his tie on
Speaker 1: gonna give you? Is Corey Kluber gonna bounce back and
Speaker 1: give you two hundred innings? Again, that's a distinct question
Speaker 1: mark Domingo Herman, will sever Reno come back? David Garcia,
Speaker 1: is he ready to kind of make that leap? Dan,
Speaker 1: There's a lot of questions, and that ninety five and
Speaker 1: a half is a very big number. So with all
Speaker 1: that in there plus oh yeah, there's a bunch of
Speaker 1: guys that get hurt every year on the Yankees named
Speaker 1: Judge and Stanton. Throwing all that in there is this
Speaker 1: tempting you to look potentially at the under of this
Speaker 1: ninety five and a half.
Speaker 3: It's kind of a stay away for me. I wouldn't
Speaker 3: go over.
Speaker 2: I would say that I'm not going over with it
Speaker 2: for the exact reasons that you said. Corey Klueber is
Speaker 2: the number two starter like you, that's not a rotation
Speaker 2: that should be, you know, for a team that should
Speaker 2: be expected to have ninety five and a half wins.
Speaker 2: It really is, with all the question marks in that rotation,
Speaker 2: just something where I can't go over it is the lineup,
Speaker 2: but you mentioned it, man, you want a lineup where
Speaker 2: guys are likely to miss time Between Judge and Stanton
Speaker 2: and Aaron Hicks and everything like that.
Speaker 3: It's really tough.
Speaker 2: And the bullpen is good, but already they're dealing with
Speaker 2: something we don't know the news. The news it just
Speaker 2: broke this morning, but Britain is having an MRI. They're
Speaker 2: a little worried about his UCL in his arm. That
Speaker 2: would be a big hit to the bullpen. So ninety
Speaker 2: five and a half is a big number. There's no
Speaker 2: way I would go over. But if they stay healthy,
Speaker 2: if you get a bounce back really from either Tyne
Speaker 2: or Kluber, they easily could.
Speaker 3: D this number. So for me it's a stay.
Speaker 2: I lean slightly the under, but I'm basically not betting
Speaker 2: it either way.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not a big fan of the you know,
Speaker 1: I really like this number. Feels really good, But I
Speaker 1: don't really like this number. It feels really good, it
Speaker 1: feels right about where it should be, and the reason
Speaker 1: is because of the variance of the pitchers. Even if
Speaker 1: they get good innings out of those guys, my concern
Speaker 1: is do they get enough of them and then the bullpen,
Speaker 1: which is the strength. If they start having an injury
Speaker 1: or two, then we're really into the weeds. And I
Speaker 1: think when you're looking at the overall picture of the
Speaker 1: East Den, it feels a little bit, at least to me,
Speaker 1: like the Rays and Blue Jays are going to be
Speaker 1: far more competitive than I think people realize even last year,
Speaker 1: and that's something that's going to enter into it now.
Speaker 1: Going to those Rays who made it to the World Series.
Speaker 1: I went on record last year all over the place,
Speaker 1: and I said that this is a season that is
Speaker 1: built for the race. It's sixty games. The Red Sox
Speaker 1: are not competing this year. The Yankees are not gonna
Speaker 1: be able to go out there and acquire big ticket
Speaker 1: items and they can absorb all these big salaries because
Speaker 1: they're the Yankees or they're the Red Sox. So the
Speaker 1: Rays are actually, for the first time competing on a
Speaker 1: very level playing field. And when you know it, they
Speaker 1: made it all the way to the World Series.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 1: But now we're back to one sixty two. So here's
Speaker 1: the question. No Snell, No Morton. I know they have
Speaker 1: that whole little league pitching thing, which you're a big
Speaker 1: fan of the little league pitching.
Speaker 3: I know that.
Speaker 1: I know you got lots of little league commitments going on.
Speaker 1: Eighty five and a half is the number four of
Speaker 1: the Rays, the reigning defending America League champs. So do
Speaker 1: you think this is achievable with these losses in the
Speaker 1: rotation and now the factor in that we're back to
Speaker 1: the one sixty two marathon.
Speaker 2: I do, but I really just do because I just
Speaker 2: kind of with the Rays. I just kind of close
Speaker 2: my eyes and say, I believe in whatever you want
Speaker 2: me to believe, because when you look at this team,
Speaker 2: you're like, how is this team even a five hundred team?
Speaker 2: I mean you look at the rotation, you know, I
Speaker 2: mean when they lost Snell, you mentioned that lost Martin,
Speaker 2: You're like, Okay, Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Michael waka Colin McHugh,
Speaker 2: I mean at got glass. But yeah, that rotation is
Speaker 2: not something.
Speaker 3: That scares you.
Speaker 2: Sure they're going to be doing like you throw three innings,
Speaker 2: you throw three inngs, you throw three innings like that,
Speaker 2: which is fine, and their.
Speaker 1: Mountation sounds like a sleeper list from twenty eighteen.
Speaker 3: Correct.
Speaker 1: That's that is my favorite most hilarious rotation ever, the
Speaker 1: way you just put them all together and maybe go
Speaker 1: what year is it?
Speaker 3: That's what the rotation is. I didn't do anything, I legit,
Speaker 3: just read the rotation.
Speaker 2: And the lineup also is just like you're like, okay, Meadows,
Speaker 2: I like you for a bounce back, Brandon Lao always
Speaker 2: you know, developed power, Maybe buy into Randy a Rosarina maybe,
Speaker 2: but then you're like, okay, who's your cleanup hitter? Ohg Manchoy,
Speaker 2: Like this is not a lineup that you're scared of.
Speaker 3: I do like the bullpen. I love Nick Anderson.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think what you saw from him during
Speaker 2: the season last year is closer to what you're gonna get.
Speaker 3: I know he fell apart in.
Speaker 2: The postseason, but I do expect them to be back
Speaker 2: to pretty much normal, which what he was.
Speaker 3: You know. I like Castillo and Fairbanks is fine.
Speaker 2: So you know the last three years ninety ninety six
Speaker 2: and then last year they were one hundred and eight
Speaker 2: win pace at eighty five and a half. This sounds terrible,
Speaker 2: but I lean the over, but only really because I'm like,
Speaker 2: they know what to do to get the most out
Speaker 2: of their players, and I think that they are going
Speaker 2: to be competitive.
Speaker 3: It's a good division. It's tough, but I lean slightly over.
Speaker 2: But it's all I have to close my eyes because
Speaker 2: when you look at the actual parts, you're like, oh god,
Speaker 2: this is disgusting.
Speaker 3: So slightly over, but not not hammering it or anything
Speaker 3: like that.
Speaker 1: No, I'm not hammering this one either. I would also
Speaker 1: lean the over. If I'm going to lean one way
Speaker 1: on this one, it's because I think the addition at
Speaker 1: some point in the time in this year of wander
Speaker 1: Franco to this offense is going to be a big boost.
Speaker 2: And what do you always, by the way, with him,
Speaker 2: when do you expect him to come out?
Speaker 1: Honestly, sooner than later. I don't know if it's going
Speaker 1: to break camp. But my goodness, he's got off to
Speaker 1: a great start.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And that's like he's kind of forcing their hand. And
Speaker 1: I know he could play third base, they say, and
Speaker 1: and maybe you know he plays second base and low
Speaker 1: move somewhere else. I know there's a lot of discussions
Speaker 1: right now, but I think last year you knew they
Speaker 1: weren't going to push Wander Franco. They just weren't going
Speaker 1: to do it.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 1: This year, this is a totally different set of circumstances.
Speaker 1: And what you can can't acquire big time guys like
Speaker 1: the Yankees can, like the Blue Jays probably can, like
Speaker 1: the Red Sox can. What you can do is add
Speaker 1: guys from within, which is what they did last year
Speaker 1: with the Rose Arena and which they can do this
Speaker 1: year with Franco. So those are the difference maker guys.
Speaker 1: I think they will go over. They will find a
Speaker 1: way because they always do, and they have a nose
Speaker 1: for getting the best out of these guys unless right, Chill.
Speaker 1: I know he's one hundred and ten years old, but
Speaker 1: I think it was a good signing. Like I actually
Speaker 1: think that was a good pal for them, and it's
Speaker 1: hard to replace Moreton end Snell. I think that's a lot.
Speaker 1: But they're gonna get creative they always do ye and
Speaker 1: they're gonna manage their way. I mean, you're looking at
Speaker 1: basically four and a half games above five hundred. Are
Speaker 1: the Rays a better than five hundred baseball team? In
Speaker 1: my opinion, I think they are, So that's why I
Speaker 1: would go, are they five games better? Probably not much
Speaker 1: more the Blue Jays however, at eighty six and a half,
Speaker 1: they're even higher in most spots than the Rays. And
Speaker 1: everybody's drinking the kool aid. And I love the Blue Jays.
Speaker 1: I'm very excited about them. However, this is another team
Speaker 1: that after he hunred Reyu, there's questions in the rotation.
Speaker 1: So it's kind of like the theme right now with
Speaker 1: the American leagueast as we continue on here, there's a
Speaker 1: guy at the top. It's cool, it's glass. Now it's uh,
Speaker 1: it's injured for you. And then after that, I don't know,
Speaker 1: we'll see what are the guys and the rest of
Speaker 1: these rotations. So is the Springer addition enough for this
Speaker 1: team to stay relevant over this time period and be
Speaker 1: in eighty six and a half above or do you
Speaker 1: think maybe the hype is a little bit. I don't
Speaker 1: know too much too soon for these Blue Jays.
Speaker 3: I think it's enough to go over their rotation. You're right.
Speaker 3: I mean there is a lot of horrible rotations, which isn't.
Speaker 2: Good when you're in a division with a lot of
Speaker 2: really good lineups.
Speaker 3: But the rotation is gross. I mean Robbie, Ray, Tanner, Roark.
Speaker 2: Hopefully Nate Pearson can stay healthy, but even if he does,
Speaker 2: he's going to be limited in innings. Matt Stephen Mattz,
Speaker 2: which you and I both know well of course as
Speaker 2: Mets fans, and Ross Stripling had a terrible year last year.
Speaker 3: Maybe bounces back.
Speaker 2: The rotation is bad, but they are going to score
Speaker 2: so many runs, especially now they're going to be playing
Speaker 2: in Dunnaedean. I think that's how it's pronounced, by the way,
Speaker 2: but that is an extreme Dunedin.
Speaker 3: Dunedin.
Speaker 1: You know, all right, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: Somebody tweeted us and figure out that has Adjo piece
Speaker 2: be a seventy okay. But regardless of what it is,
Speaker 2: it is an extreme hitters park. And you go to
Speaker 2: that lineup and it's not just Springer. By the way,
Speaker 2: I kind of really liked the under the radar signing
Speaker 2: of Marcus Simeon too, because now you look at that,
Speaker 2: look at that lineup, Joe go down from the top
Speaker 2: to the bottom. It's Springer, Bashett, Semion, Tascar, Hernandez, Vlattie.
Speaker 3: Bugio Guriel. Like that is a lineup.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're gonna probably win a lot of twelve
Speaker 2: ten games given everything like that. They don't have a
Speaker 2: great bullpen. I do like Herbie Yates, but he's got
Speaker 2: to bounce back and we need to see that and
Speaker 2: everything like that. The thing is they have a farm system,
Speaker 2: right They have a very solid farm system. So if
Speaker 2: they're in contention, they're going to go for It's clear
Speaker 2: what they're doing. They are going for it right now.
Speaker 2: So even though the pitching staff is weak, even though
Speaker 2: the bullpen is mediocre, unless Yates returns to top form,
Speaker 2: in which case they have one of the best closers
Speaker 2: in the game, I think the lineup is so good
Speaker 2: that they're going to be able to slightly surpass the
Speaker 2: eighty six and a half wins. They strike me as
Speaker 2: more of like an eighty eight twin team, So I
Speaker 2: lean the over here. Again, not my favorite bet on
Speaker 2: the board or anything like that, but I do like
Speaker 2: the over.
Speaker 1: You know, we could also make it up and call
Speaker 1: it Dunidin, which would sound a lot more like a
Speaker 1: Lord of the Rings place. Yeah, you know, I think
Speaker 1: that's where you have to do. We give us take
Speaker 1: the ring to Dunidin, and when you go there find
Speaker 1: the three eyed pro And yeah, it sounds like that.
Speaker 1: It's like a big game of thronesy, sort of Lord
Speaker 1: of the Rings. He kind of plays. You know, you
Speaker 1: gotta watch out. You don't want to be caught in
Speaker 1: after dark and Dunidin it's a very dangerous place. Boston
Speaker 1: Red Sox eighty and a half ugly. It's the only
Speaker 1: way to discuss the Red Sox season last year. Eighty
Speaker 1: and a half is the number. So they're basically just saying, eh,
Speaker 1: let's throw our hands up. It's a five hundred team,
Speaker 1: another team that has a lot of questions in the
Speaker 1: rotation now at Twardo Rodriguez looking good this spring. Yep,
Speaker 1: perhaps you get a healthy Chris sailback at some point.
Speaker 1: I think when you're looking at this injury to Xander Bogarts,
Speaker 1: you're slightly concerned. It seems like it's going in the
Speaker 1: right direction. However, sometimes things like that tend to linger.
Speaker 1: So I don't think it's a question of can they
Speaker 1: score runs. I think we all know that they can.
Speaker 1: It's just a matter of the bullpen the back of
Speaker 1: the rotation. Yet again, here again, this is just what
Speaker 1: the East is right now. It's kind of you know,
Speaker 1: you've got those front end pitchers and that's kind of
Speaker 1: tough to figure things out. So in my opinion, I
Speaker 1: think this is again another number whereas I feel good
Speaker 1: about the Rays over the Blue Jays is another one
Speaker 1: where I feel barely good about that. I would lean
Speaker 1: towards the over. There the Red Sox, I'd actually lean
Speaker 1: towards the under because I think they're still more I
Speaker 1: think basically this number is because they're the Red Sox,
Speaker 1: And I know that sounds crazy, but I think you
Speaker 1: can get people to wager on the over based on
Speaker 1: the brand instead of really paying attention to what the
Speaker 1: roster looks like. Because I think the roster still has
Speaker 1: enough holes that they're probably just slightly under a five
Speaker 1: hundred team.
Speaker 3: Yep, I agree with that. I lean under.
Speaker 2: I think if you put them in another division, maybe
Speaker 2: you could see them getting to above five hundred. But
Speaker 2: in this division we just talked about it, three very
Speaker 2: very good teams, one not so good team, which we'll
Speaker 2: talk about next. But with those teams, I feel like
Speaker 2: it's gonna be really tough for this team to get there.
Speaker 2: And again you mentioned the rotation. All the other teams,
Speaker 2: they all have your one guy, right, they all have
Speaker 2: all right, this is our guy. At least they don't
Speaker 2: have a guy.
Speaker 3: I mean, EDWARDO.
Speaker 2: Rodriguez is a fine pitcher and I'm really hoping that
Speaker 2: he returns.
Speaker 3: To full health.
Speaker 2: But that is not an ace pitcher, I mean, nor
Speaker 2: is Nathan Devaldi. So their rotation is really not strong.
Speaker 2: And their lineup, hopefully I mean, is Jadi Martinez. I'm
Speaker 2: buying into the bounce back for Jadie Martinez, but we
Speaker 2: still need to see it. And Xander Bogart's again is
Speaker 2: already dealing with the shoulder thing. I don't think that
Speaker 2: the lineup is going to be the red Sox lineup
Speaker 2: of old and the bullpen is just mediocre. I mean,
Speaker 2: I don't trust Matt Barnes to close games or Adam
Speaker 2: out of you know, whoever wins it. The rest of them,
Speaker 2: braz Or, Sawamura, Hernandez, like, they're just not that impressive.
Speaker 3: So for me, again, I lean the under here.
Speaker 2: This is not as strong this division. The numbers are
Speaker 2: not strong. I don't get a stronglyan. There are other
Speaker 2: spots where I have much stronger leans. I lean under
Speaker 2: like you, I think we see this the same way
Speaker 2: in another division, maybe over, but in the East, I'm
Speaker 2: going under.
Speaker 1: I just think this is a carryover from last year.
Speaker 1: You know this, Yes, last year was ugly, but they
Speaker 1: have not fixed enough of the issues. Where are the
Speaker 1: issues that they fixed? They're not there.
Speaker 2: Well, I think they're operating more like a small market team,
Speaker 2: which is fine. I like I you know, the GM Bloom,
Speaker 2: I mean, we almost hired him for the Mets job
Speaker 2: before we hired Brody van Wagon and that that's sort
Speaker 2: of the way he operates, right Like, he comes from
Speaker 2: a small market background, and its fine for them, that's
Speaker 2: what they're doing. But I think everybody kind of needs
Speaker 2: to understand that is what they're doing. They're not sort
Speaker 2: of wasting things right now. They're fully content to not
Speaker 2: be in contention this year. So it's a team that, again,
Speaker 2: if it comes down to it, if they're not in contention,
Speaker 2: they'll be willing to sell off pieces that they can
Speaker 2: and build up for next year.
Speaker 1: So I do lean the end I think they can make.
Speaker 1: I'll say what, I think you can make some money
Speaker 1: on the Red Sox under this year. I do. I
Speaker 1: just think too many people are just buying into the
Speaker 1: concept that it's it's the Red Sox They're going to
Speaker 1: be better. No, I think they're still in this transition,
Speaker 1: and they might even be into it in the first
Speaker 1: half of twenty twenty two. All right, let's go into
Speaker 1: the next one. Here, the Baltimore Orioles close out the
Speaker 1: East sixty four and a half. Not the greatest number,
Speaker 1: sixty four and a half. You're gonna lose about one
Speaker 1: hundred games or so. So here's the idea. It's whether
Speaker 1: or not you believe that they're just gonna get pummeled
Speaker 1: by the rest of this division, which I think they
Speaker 1: probably are. You know, the low numbers typically I see
Speaker 1: the low number and I like to go over. I
Speaker 1: like to give some parts a little bit work. Of course,
Speaker 1: now I have a hard time doing that here. I
Speaker 1: just gonna be honest with you. Are you having the
Speaker 1: same hard time?
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm under I'm character Ye.
Speaker 2: It's such a low number, but yeah, this is one
Speaker 2: hundred lost team.
Speaker 3: Like it just is. I mean, Joe, you and I
Speaker 3: do fantasy baseball.
Speaker 2: Obviously we are fantasy baseball, Quoe unquote experts and you
Speaker 2: I like John.
Speaker 3: Means like I do like them.
Speaker 2: M I don't think before I kind of was really
Speaker 2: digging into it, I could have named another Oriole starter.
Speaker 3: Can people listening right now name another starter?
Speaker 1: Jim Palmer, Jim.
Speaker 3: Bomber was at one point start.
Speaker 2: Dylan Bundy was not a good starter for them before
Speaker 2: he went to the Drews.
Speaker 3: It's I mean Keegan Aiken.
Speaker 2: Dean Kramer or he Lopez, Like, this is not a
Speaker 2: major leaguer talk about some rotations. This is not a
Speaker 2: major league rotation. And their lineup is fine. You and
Speaker 2: I are big tray man senior guys. I like Ryan Mountcastle,
Speaker 2: but not good enough to compete with these other lineups. So,
Speaker 2: and the bullpend isn't great at all. So there's just
Speaker 2: nothing about this that screams you're gonna be able to
Speaker 2: like become a sixty five sixty six win team in
Speaker 2: this division again, where every team, even the Red Sox
Speaker 2: are not gonna be terrible. We're not like a seventy
Speaker 2: six win team. They're gonna be a round five hundred.
Speaker 2: So for me, it's a low number. But yeah, this
Speaker 2: is a team I'm fading. I will go under the
Speaker 2: sixty four and a half here with the Orioles.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of worry because they're gonna play teams
Speaker 1: from the central two and there's some better teams they
Speaker 1: were gonna get into a second, and I think that's
Speaker 1: to be where I would lean the under as well.
Speaker 1: It's because of the rest of the league. Even when
Speaker 1: they go play West Coast road trips and some of
Speaker 1: those teams in the West that are gonna give them fits,
Speaker 1: the Angels are gonna give them a hard time. The
Speaker 1: A's look, but let's let's move on to the White
Speaker 1: Sox here in the central because this is one where
Speaker 1: I am excited right now. Ninety one and a half
Speaker 1: here we go. I'm finally excited. Why I always get
Speaker 1: excited when it comes to the Central I don't know why.
Speaker 1: I'm just a I'm just a Midwestern kind of guy.
Speaker 3: Well, are you excited for the over excited.
Speaker 1: Danny boy? I am excited for the over ninety one
Speaker 1: and a half going on? Have we seen this lineup?
Speaker 1: They added Lance Lynn, he's a horse, Lint, Giolito, Kikeel,
Speaker 1: They've got some other guys too. They've got Dylan cs
Speaker 1: and Lopez and who knows what Kopek can give them.
Speaker 1: They fixed the ninth inning when they brought in a
Speaker 1: shutdown closer. You have a lineup that doesn't quit. Oh
Speaker 1: my goodness, ninety one and a half. I saw this
Speaker 1: and I just wanted to immediately go and find all
Speaker 1: the places where I could go and wager on it,
Speaker 1: because I do feel like this is something where they're
Speaker 1: not giving the White Sox enough credit, and I think
Speaker 1: it's time we do, because this is a team that
Speaker 1: is young, that is hungry, that already proved last year
Speaker 1: the concept and now they're just coming back for more
Speaker 1: and they've got the rating MVP on their team as well.
Speaker 1: In jse Bree, you, I just think this team is
Speaker 1: much better than people realize and I also think this
Speaker 1: whole division, you know, Minnesota and the Indians are going
Speaker 1: to the Cleveland baseball team, as it might be right now, it's.
Speaker 3: Going to take are still the Indians, right? I think
Speaker 3: they don't know all.
Speaker 1: Right anyway if they are changes either way either way,
Speaker 1: I think it's safe to just apologize. So White Sox
Speaker 1: for you ninety one and a half? What do you do?
Speaker 3: I kind of stay away from it, But all right.
Speaker 1: Here run through the village on this one.
Speaker 3: Let's point out a couple of things. Okay.
Speaker 2: Number one, there are books out there FanDuel, in particular
Speaker 2: ninety and a half, so if you like it, you
Speaker 2: can get it even better at ninety one and a half,
Speaker 2: which is a consensus ligne. Again, on our betting pros
Speaker 2: Consensus MLB Betting Pros dot Com slash MLB Wins, you
Speaker 2: can look at the win totals for every team, the
Speaker 2: consensus line, and the individual sports books.
Speaker 3: So you're looking at it.
Speaker 2: The consensus line is ninety one and a half, but
Speaker 2: there are a couple of Fox bet fandel that are
Speaker 2: at ninety and a half, seeing ge an even better
Speaker 2: line if you like the over, if you're.
Speaker 3: Available to bet in those markets. Here it is You're right.
Speaker 3: Everything you said is right, and I've dug into this
Speaker 3: team and I can't poke holes in it. Okay, it
Speaker 3: really can't. Their lineup is extremely extremely strong. It just is.
Speaker 3: There really is no holes in it.
Speaker 2: There are rotation you mentioned it, Linn, and especially a
Speaker 2: year like this where you're coming off where you don't
Speaker 2: know if you can count on the innings that you're
Speaker 2: gonna get from most pictures, you can count on the
Speaker 2: innings you're gonna get from Lynn.
Speaker 3: Gilido is great, of course, Kiko is very good.
Speaker 2: Maybe the back end of their rotation is a little weak,
Speaker 2: but you mentioned it that got Copec waiting to come
Speaker 2: add basically the best closer in the game, and Aaron
Speaker 2: Bummer was probably okay to step in even if not.
Speaker 2: Here's what worries me, Joe, And it's probably silly to
Speaker 2: give this this much credit because there are teams that
Speaker 2: projection systems just kind of you know, they can't get
Speaker 2: a hold of, like the A's and the Braves, right,
Speaker 2: the projection systems are always way below them. The projection
Speaker 2: Pakoda right, like one of the most well known projection
Speaker 2: systems eighty two and a half wins.
Speaker 1: That's what they had for the Braves too or something.
Speaker 2: I agree the break there are certain there are certain
Speaker 2: teams historically, and they do it every single year. And
Speaker 2: they also overvalue a couple of teams every year, which
Speaker 2: we'll get to one of those teams we get to
Speaker 2: the West.
Speaker 3: They undervalue certain teams every single year because.
Speaker 2: I think they can't quantify certain parts of their team,
Speaker 2: whether it's the deepense or you know with the Rays
Speaker 2: sometimes the way they're able to, you know, basically outmaneuver everybody.
Speaker 2: I don't know what it is with the White Sox,
Speaker 2: and historically I don't think they go under on the
Speaker 2: White Sox. So I've been thinking that that that makes
Speaker 2: me extremely worried. When a projection system is nine wins
Speaker 2: nine wins different than what the over under is, so
Speaker 2: I nine times I you know, I'm just basically I
Speaker 2: understand over. I'm not betting the under, but I'm staying
Speaker 2: away from it.
Speaker 3: And it's a simple thing. And people want to be like,
Speaker 3: what do you mean.
Speaker 2: So you like the team, you think they could go over,
Speaker 2: but the projection system is so far down, so you're off.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I hate to say it, but I am, because when
Speaker 2: it's that big a difference, Joe, A nine win difference
Speaker 2: for me is enough for me to say, am I
Speaker 2: missing something with this team? And I can't quantify it yet?
Speaker 2: So for me, I'm staying away. But if there is
Speaker 2: a way to go, it is over.
Speaker 1: I will agree with you that closer check, rotation check,
Speaker 1: I got you check, depth in the system check. I
Speaker 1: got more checks. I got more checks. I want to
Speaker 1: checks check list. So power check, speed check, defense, big check.
Speaker 1: A lot of good defenders too. Madrigal is a good
Speaker 1: defender and over the app Now, honestly, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: tricky with Vaughn playing d H what you do with
Speaker 1: the lay not the greatest defender, but he's gonna be
Speaker 1: out there. But I think that's part of the acquisition there,
Speaker 1: of bringing in the man. Meeting too is strewing up
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of the outfield defense. So all right,
Speaker 1: I'm telling you right now, I think they're closer to
Speaker 1: one hundred win team than they are a ninety win team.
Speaker 3: All right, So you're you're really going over here. Maybe
Speaker 3: maybe it's maybe for me, maybe what's holding me back.
Speaker 3: In addition to Pakoda is Tony LaRussa, Like, what happens.
Speaker 1: The one check I did not check because I don't.
Speaker 2: You you conspicuously forgot the manager. Yeah, I think for
Speaker 2: me again, you know, maybe it's gonna be anything. You're
Speaker 2: going to see a bat flip Like this team is
Speaker 2: young and cool and loose and.
Speaker 3: Bat flippy, and I feel like you're gonna be like,
Speaker 3: did you just bat flip your bench for three games?
Speaker 3: And stuff like that. You could feel like it's the.
Speaker 1: Same guy who manages the A's flipping bats and thy
Speaker 1: years ago.
Speaker 3: Man, another time, that was a whole nother time.
Speaker 1: Only the versa cares about one thing, winning. If they're winning,
Speaker 1: they could do whatever the hell they want. If they're
Speaker 1: using that's a different story.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: Well, if you work for Pakoda and you are listening
Speaker 2: to this podcast, mess m me on Twitter and explain
Speaker 2: to me why you're saying.
Speaker 1: When you say Pakoda, I always think of Bill Pakota
Speaker 1: or like immediately and that shows my age.
Speaker 3: I just put that you're an old man.
Speaker 1: All right. Minnesota Twins are next eighty eight and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: this number feels right to me. This is one that
Speaker 1: I'm running away from. Uh, the Twins, I could do
Speaker 1: the opposite checklist. Everything could break right, but Donaldson's health couldn't.
Speaker 1: This could be finally the year Nelson Cruz, God forbid,
Speaker 1: isn't Nelson Cruz, Sario is gone, still hasn't taken that
Speaker 1: step forward. My Ada is coming off a career year,
Speaker 1: all these things. Buckston's always hurt, no strikes out every
Speaker 1: five seconds. There's so many negatives. I can look at
Speaker 1: this team and I think that that's a sound way
Speaker 1: of looking at it. And if you could look at
Speaker 1: all those negatives, it would tend towards an under But
Speaker 1: I know that not every negative is going to happen
Speaker 1: for the Twins. So I think this is a good number.
Speaker 1: This is a stay away number for me. I'm bullish
Speaker 1: on the white Sox. I am passive about the Twins.
Speaker 1: What do you think about Minnesota this year? In that
Speaker 1: eighty eight and a half?
Speaker 2: I agree with you that it's a pretty It seems
Speaker 2: like a pretty sharp number to me. And again, you
Speaker 2: know the last two years one hundred and one wins
Speaker 2: and then they were on a ninety seven win pace
Speaker 2: last year.
Speaker 3: It's a good team and not that much has changed.
Speaker 2: But I agree with you like it is really easy
Speaker 2: to see this falling off a cliff because again, Nelson
Speaker 2: Cruise is a thousand years old, and although everything looks
Speaker 2: good and he continues to get it done, and he
Speaker 2: continues to be undervalue generally, like the wheels fall off
Speaker 2: for every.
Speaker 3: Time, eventually, eventually except that except it's true, not obviously,
Speaker 3: but Buckston, you're right.
Speaker 2: I mean if Buckston, if I knew Buckston were gonna
Speaker 2: be healthy the whole season, I would love it. But
Speaker 2: obviously never is Josh Donaldson feels like he's about to
Speaker 2: break down. Is Miguel Snow gonna play to the eightyeh percent?
Speaker 2: All of his possible outcomes are the twentieth?
Speaker 3: You never know? But their team is like it's it's solid.
Speaker 2: I mean that the big you know, Brios, my Eta,
Speaker 2: and I like Pineda. I like adding Jay Happ at
Speaker 2: the end of the rotation as well. I like adding
Speaker 2: out Klome, who continues to get it done despite Miniogre
Speaker 2: stuff in the bullpen. So it does strike me as
Speaker 2: a team that's gonna be above five hundred. But there's
Speaker 2: enough downside for me if everything goes right that I
Speaker 2: agree with you, I kind of want to stay away
Speaker 2: from the numbers, it's a solid number something I don't
Speaker 2: really love.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's better than five hundred team, but I don't
Speaker 1: think they're a ninety win team in that stay away. Now,
Speaker 1: this next one, I like the over two. It's the
Speaker 1: Cleveland baseball team, the Indians eighty one and a half.
Speaker 1: And the reason is they have pitching. You know, when
Speaker 1: we talk about all these other teams that go, oh,
Speaker 1: what about the three and the four and the five, Well,
Speaker 1: guess what this is. One goes all the way. You know,
Speaker 1: you start with Bieber, who's probably the best pitcher in
Speaker 1: the American League besides Garret Cole. You can have that conversation.
Speaker 1: But then after that, you've got Plisek, You've got Savale,
Speaker 1: who I think very highly of. You've got Tristan McKenzie.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's always the sense that Cleveland will find
Speaker 1: a way, and they keep rereading these young pitchers and
Speaker 1: turning it over. And yes, they did lose lind Door,
Speaker 1: but they did bring in Rosario and that's good. And
Speaker 1: I just feel like from the Indian standpoint, they have
Speaker 1: the manager, they have the pitching that's enough to be
Speaker 1: more than a five hundred team, and they're just giving
Speaker 1: them five hundred. Eighty one and a half is five hundred.
Speaker 1: They're better than that. They're eighty four eighty five in
Speaker 1: my opinion, somewhere around there. So for me, I actually
Speaker 1: think Cleveland's gonna have a streak or two in the year.
Speaker 1: It's gonna put them over five hundred because that pitching
Speaker 1: can be so dominant at times, and that is something
Speaker 1: that other teams don't all have. So when they go
Speaker 1: and play some of the lesser teams in the East
Speaker 1: or in the West, they're gonna feast on those teams
Speaker 1: with that pitching. That's my take on Cleveland. What's yours.
Speaker 2: I'm not like running to the over here just because
Speaker 2: I feel like Cleveland every single year. And again it's
Speaker 2: we talked a little bit about it with the Rays.
Speaker 2: It's like their whole is greater than the summer their parts.
Speaker 2: They're somehow able to do it. They are masters at
Speaker 2: getting these guys like Poli, Sach and Savale who are
Speaker 2: like command guys without the greatest stuff, and turning them
Speaker 2: into borderline dominant pitchers. I don't know how they do
Speaker 2: it every single year, but they are able to get
Speaker 2: that done. Obviously, Karen Tech if he's dominant in the bullpen.
Speaker 2: I know he had a little bit of some control
Speaker 2: issues and that you know, his first appearance there, and
Speaker 2: that might rear their ugly head.
Speaker 3: Their lineup is not great.
Speaker 2: I think adding at A Rosario really helped a lot.
Speaker 2: And you know fran Mill's there of course. Jose Ramirez,
Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I feel like when I look
Speaker 2: at the parts, it's like a five hundred team and
Speaker 2: they will it surprise me if they go over.
Speaker 3: No, because they always find a way to be better
Speaker 3: than I feel like they should be. But it strikes
Speaker 3: me as a five hundred team.
Speaker 2: So I mean for me, I guess you know, if
Speaker 2: I had to go one way or the other, i'd
Speaker 2: go over.
Speaker 3: But there's an over that I like in this division.
Speaker 3: We haven't gotten there yet.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, maybe it's the Kansas City role. Let's
Speaker 1: see what Dad thinks about them. Seventy three and a
Speaker 1: half is the number. Now, this is I think a
Speaker 1: very competitive team. My problem is competitive and wins don't
Speaker 1: always go hand in hand yep. So that's the tough
Speaker 1: selling point for me on the seventy three and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: I would lean towards the over here slightly because I
Speaker 1: am actually going to go in the under and the
Speaker 1: next team, and I think that's where the variance comes from.
Speaker 1: I think the Royals are closer to the other group
Speaker 1: than they are the bottom tier. But what do you
Speaker 1: think about the Royals, because I'm guessing that's the one
Speaker 1: you're talking about because there's only two left. And I
Speaker 1: don't think it's the Tigers.
Speaker 3: I'm not smashing the over.
Speaker 1: Not a guy.
Speaker 3: It is the Royals.
Speaker 2: It is the Royals in seventy three and a half.
Speaker 2: They are my favorite one in the division and it's
Speaker 2: over and I think again part of it is I
Speaker 2: don't like the Indians.
Speaker 3: As much as you.
Speaker 2: I have some probably you know, unfounded concerns about the
Speaker 2: White Sox.
Speaker 3: The Twins might not be as good as they.
Speaker 2: Usually are, and I think the Royals are where they're
Speaker 2: going to make up a little bit of the difference.
Speaker 2: We've talked about it. On the fantasy side. We really
Speaker 2: like what they have done this offseason for that sneaky
Speaker 2: good offense, right like with Meryfield, Andrew Ben and Tenny
Speaker 2: who you and I both think can bounce back with
Speaker 2: the change of scenery sal Perez.
Speaker 3: Carlos Santana was a nice little just sneaky little ad jorgez.
Speaker 2: Sohilaire still has the power you've got at Albert Delmandesi
Speaker 2: gonna probably lead the league in steals.
Speaker 3: Hunter Dozer we like as a bounce back who they
Speaker 3: signed to an extension.
Speaker 2: Michael Taylor finally is gonna get some regular playing time
Speaker 2: and he can do some damage.
Speaker 3: The lineup really from top to bottom.
Speaker 2: It doesn't blow you away. It doesn't have superstars, but
Speaker 2: it's a long lineup. It's gonna be tough to get
Speaker 2: through them.
Speaker 3: And I like the rotation.
Speaker 2: Not love the rotation, but I think they've got enough
Speaker 2: quality arms that they're going to be able to put
Speaker 2: out somebody pretty much each and every time through the rotation.
Speaker 2: That's going to be like, this guy should keep us
Speaker 2: in the game, whether it's Duffy or Kelly Keller pardon me,
Speaker 2: or minor or Singer. I mean, I think that those
Speaker 2: guys are gonna be able to do it. Greg Holland
Speaker 2: like maybe the Wheels fall back off. I feel like
Speaker 2: they fell off and came back on and they might
Speaker 2: fall off again.
Speaker 1: That's fine wheels anymore.
Speaker 3: The eighth in a guy.
Speaker 1: Uh, guy's been on donuts. It's fuir, I'm pretty.
Speaker 2: Sure, or stomach. I forget how to pronounce them. Stalmont,
Speaker 2: he's done it. He their reliever, the needed really throw.
Speaker 2: He throws gas so he can really step in again.
Speaker 2: I think that the fact that they signed Dozer to
Speaker 2: the extension. I think this team sort of feels like
Speaker 2: it might have arrived quote unquote a little earlier than
Speaker 2: they expected, and they're willing to kind of play themselves
Speaker 2: into contention. So this strikes me as like a high
Speaker 2: seventies win team. I still think they'll probably be below
Speaker 2: five hundred, but it strikes me as like seventy eight
Speaker 2: seventy nine win team for me.
Speaker 3: So I really like the over. This is one of
Speaker 3: my favorite bets of the season.
Speaker 1: Bobby Wood Junior is pushing the envelope a little bit too.
Speaker 1: I like me some Bobby Wood Junior. I was very
Speaker 1: high on him when he was drafted. I thought that
Speaker 1: was a great pick by the Royals, and he looks
Speaker 1: like he might force their hand at some point. I
Speaker 1: don't think it's a willing to do it.
Speaker 3: But by the way, I will say, Joe, it was
Speaker 3: seventy three and a half.
Speaker 1: That's what we had, will double check e seventy three
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 3: Correct, it just dropped to seventy two and a half.
Speaker 3: So now I'm even going more because again.
Speaker 2: In the middle of this conversation, wait, I checked before,
Speaker 2: right before it was any that's what we do.
Speaker 1: We moved here at ed Bruce.
Speaker 2: I'm going and again I you know, as I said,
Speaker 2: the consent assign now has moved to seventy two and
Speaker 2: a half. There are seventy three and a half, so
Speaker 2: it's basically right in between. But for me again, I'm
Speaker 2: a New Hampshire DraftKings seventy two and a half, juiced
Speaker 2: a little bit towards the over, so I get it,
Speaker 2: but I'm taking it with seventy th and a half
Speaker 2: all day long, all.
Speaker 1: Right, last one here Detroit Tiger sixty eight and a
Speaker 1: half spoiler alert under for me, yeah, I'm sorry, I'm
Speaker 1: just not buying this like I'm just this is a
Speaker 1: very competitive division. It's a deep division. Yeah, And I
Speaker 1: actually feel better about this under than I feel about
Speaker 1: the Baltimore under by a long shot, because I'm getting
Speaker 1: four games difference here. So I'm gonna hammer an al
Speaker 1: under on a terrible team. The Tigers are the one
Speaker 1: to me because this is one of the tougher divisions
Speaker 1: where I think all the teams ahead of them are
Speaker 1: just clearly a cut above. So that's my take, and
Speaker 1: I just don't think the rest of this team is
Speaker 1: ready to take over yet. They're gonna be a fun
Speaker 1: team in a couple of years, and that sounds great,
Speaker 1: but you know what, it's twenty one, so it's not
Speaker 1: happening this year.
Speaker 2: That is the correct answers. I used to like to
Speaker 2: say on the fantas side, I agree with you. I'm
Speaker 2: under on this too. And I feel bad because like
Speaker 2: it feels so easy to take these horrible teams and
Speaker 2: they've got really low wind totals and you're just like.
Speaker 3: No, I don't care, it's not low enough. But I agree.
Speaker 2: And again the Tigers, basically they've come out and said
Speaker 2: what they're doing.
Speaker 3: They're like, we are lowing our payroll. We don't want
Speaker 3: to you know, We're.
Speaker 1: We're slashing prices.
Speaker 3: We are overloaded with the Migey contract. So we've got
Speaker 3: these guys.
Speaker 2: On one year deals. We will sell them all off
Speaker 2: at the deadline. We will wait for our young kids
Speaker 2: to be here.
Speaker 3: They have no.
Speaker 2: Interest in trying to be competitive this year. They have
Speaker 2: very little talent on their team. So sixty eight and
Speaker 2: a half they were at a sixty four win pace
Speaker 2: I believe last year. So I agree with you. I
Speaker 2: know it's the bottom feeders, but I will take the
Speaker 2: under them both.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the west here. The
Speaker 1: Houston Astros are at the time top of it. Theoretically
Speaker 1: with eighty seven and a half. They just lost fran
Speaker 1: Bervaldez probably for the season. I guess they probably were
Speaker 1: still waiting to figure that out.
Speaker 3: Forrest Whitley, by the way, where a fractured finger takes
Speaker 3: you out for the whole.
Speaker 1: Man, I saw that thing. I saw the fractured finger,
Speaker 1: was like, oh, well he'll be behind. And then like
Speaker 1: twenty four hours later as he could miss the whole season,
Speaker 1: and I thought, what I can imagine if this was
Speaker 1: in the sixties or the fifties, they would say like, well,
Speaker 1: just just patch it back up and go pick pitch.
Speaker 1: Seven years with no thumb, how do you think he
Speaker 1: did that? Let me tell you something good.
Speaker 3: Oh god, so old, I'm so sorry. Everybody.
Speaker 1: A forward pitch, it's a. It's a baseball reference. But anyway,
Speaker 1: the rotations falling apart, and we haven't even started. Like
Speaker 1: Forrest Whitley has got the UCL so he's done.
Speaker 3: Forget that.
Speaker 1: Second opinion is gonna be the same as the first opinion,
Speaker 1: which is gonna be Tommy John and I think the
Speaker 1: Astros are gonna be good. I just want to stay
Speaker 1: away from the Astros again. I see too many variables here,
Speaker 1: and when I see lots of different outcomes with the team,
Speaker 1: and this could be a team that smashes this number.
Speaker 1: They could win ninety four games this year. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: telling you they have this kind of talent still on
Speaker 1: this roster. If Alvarez bounces back, if Altuve is right
Speaker 1: and plays one hundred and fifty games, if they get
Speaker 1: Zach Greenki to really lead this rotation, and maybe mccollor's
Speaker 1: or somebody else steps up in that void. But there's
Speaker 1: too many bots. And that's my problem with the Astro
Speaker 1: so eighty seven and a half, Sorry, I'm out. I'm
Speaker 1: not nearly as excited as I was about the White Sox.
Speaker 1: So your turn, Astros eighty seven and a half, What
Speaker 1: are you doing?
Speaker 3: Uh? Yeah, I'm going over.
Speaker 2: I feel less happy about it after the Cramberg Valdez
Speaker 2: injury for sure, and obviously Whitley, but I'm still over again.
Speaker 2: This is a Pakoda sort of variance, not that I
Speaker 2: live and die by Pokoda or anything like that, but there.
Speaker 1: Sounds like you do I don't. I just think you've
Speaker 1: got stock in Pakota after this show.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't mind it.
Speaker 2: But the bottom line is that when there's a huge
Speaker 2: difference between Pakoda and the Window, like, there's a reason
Speaker 2: that I try to sort of dig into why that is.
Speaker 2: And again, sometime they undervalue the Braves all the time,
Speaker 2: and the Rays too, so they're not the be all
Speaker 2: in all. But I do like Houston and again the
Speaker 2: Imber Valdez like that. That's terrible. But that whole lineup
Speaker 2: is going to bounce back, right like everybody like Bregman
Speaker 2: and altuvan krah And you saw even in the playoffs
Speaker 2: how Altu van Kraa already did kind of bounce back.
Speaker 2: So I expect the lineup to be really good again
Speaker 2: if Alvarez is healthy.
Speaker 3: Finally Tucker is in there ready to go.
Speaker 2: So I like the lineup a lot and their ritation
Speaker 2: again they immediately went out and signed Oderezi right like
Speaker 2: immediately sort of did that to sort of say, okay,
Speaker 2: well we've got to figure it out. And I don't
Speaker 2: love Oderezy, but he'll give you innings. And then the
Speaker 2: rest of it is finer. Kiati Is is not terrible,
Speaker 2: Javier is fine. I like mccullors as a bounce back, really,
Speaker 2: I do, and with Granky, So for me, this is
Speaker 2: a team who I realized, like there's no Verlander anymore,
Speaker 2: of course, and then they lost Valdez and all that,
Speaker 2: but it still strikes me as a team where the
Speaker 2: lineup is good enough, the management is good enough. I
Speaker 2: think actually Dusty Baker now has become from this guy
Speaker 2: who burned out all his pitchers to a guy who
Speaker 2: is kind of like listening to analytics at this point
Speaker 2: from what I can tell.
Speaker 3: So I like it.
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna go. I think they're more of
Speaker 2: a ninety one team, so I will go with you
Speaker 2: over here. Even with the Valdez injury.
Speaker 1: My biggest disappointment is I don't get to sing my
Speaker 1: song about Franber Valdez because on the DFS show last year,
Speaker 1: it was always Framber was the color of my energy
Speaker 1: all the time, and I would sing that song and
Speaker 1: every time he had a quality start, which was a lot,
Speaker 1: and I made a lot of money. What franber Valdez
Speaker 1: last year? So Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim eighty three
Speaker 1: and a half. Ooh, another team. This is really whether
Speaker 1: or not you believe in doing Bundy. I'm telling you
Speaker 1: right now. If you believe in doing Bundy, then you
Speaker 1: like this over if you and show hey, O Tommy,
Speaker 1: if you think those guys are going to throw I
Speaker 1: don't know, one hundred and let's say three hundred innings
Speaker 1: between them, let's say one hundred and fifty for each
Speaker 1: let's throw that out there, or one hundred and I
Speaker 1: like some combination one sixty one forty. I don't care
Speaker 1: whatever you want to do. If you believe in those
Speaker 1: two guys, I think you liked the eighty three and
Speaker 1: a half. Otherwise I think this is the same old Angels, like, yeah,
Speaker 1: it looks like it could be good. Maybe, but at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, it's the pitching that said
Speaker 1: they're undoing.
Speaker 2: I'm happy I get to do this because we were
Speaker 2: joking about me in Pokoda Pakoda has them at eighty
Speaker 2: six wins and I love the under here okay.
Speaker 3: At eighty the eighty three, wow, I like the under
Speaker 3: a lot. I don't get it with this. I just don't.
Speaker 3: I don't get it. They haven't. I don't think they've
Speaker 3: gone over this number.
Speaker 1: I don't know. All I know is Mike Trout has
Speaker 1: three playoff appearances?
Speaker 3: What since fifteen? Twenty fifteen? I just looked it up.
Speaker 2: Twenty fifteen was the last time that they have gone
Speaker 2: over eighty three and a half wins. And I don't
Speaker 2: understand what is so exciting about this year where suddenly
Speaker 2: we're like, look at this team, Okay, look at.
Speaker 3: The improvements we had. What are the improvements?
Speaker 2: Like, I like, Dylan, Buddy, there's no way I'm relying
Speaker 2: on shoe Aotani by the way, There's just no way.
Speaker 2: And like, okay, is this the year Andrew Heeney is
Speaker 2: finally gonna stay healthy and really take that next step.
Speaker 2: Hosea Jose Kintana, you know what he is at this point,
Speaker 2: he'll give you. It's like they were just I kudos
Speaker 2: to them for basically being like, we are going to
Speaker 2: make up for our lack of top end talent by
Speaker 2: just throwing a thousand pictures in there, and so like.
Speaker 3: When we lose one, we can throw another mediocre start.
Speaker 2: I like Griffin Canning, but I don't expect them necessarily
Speaker 2: to stay healthy the whole year. And Cobb, I mean,
Speaker 2: at this point, their rotation just isn't good. I like
Speaker 2: that they added a Glaciers, but they're bullpen still as
Speaker 2: a whole is not great. Defensively they are bad. They
Speaker 2: lost Andrelton Simmons as well. So really, I just don't
Speaker 2: get this team. This is not a five hundred team.
Speaker 2: To me, I don't understand it. And I again, I
Speaker 2: think the A's are again going to be good, and
Speaker 2: we'll talk about them in a minute. And I like
Speaker 2: the Astros a lot more so. Maybe it's that, but
Speaker 2: I do not understand that. I love the under end
Speaker 2: this one. I'm not going near the eighty three and
Speaker 2: a half wins under all that.
Speaker 1: I thought they should have signed Trevor Bower. I thought
Speaker 1: that was the thing.
Speaker 2: Why aren't they going out there and signing like a
Speaker 2: really really top end pitcher, you know what? Instead they
Speaker 2: do they're like, let's just add a mediocre outfielderer like
Speaker 2: that that's sort of there. You know, they have so
Speaker 2: much money, go out and assign the top end of
Speaker 2: the rotation starter Already.
Speaker 1: It's puzzling, to say the least. The Oakland A is
Speaker 1: also always undervalued. Every year now a little less, so
Speaker 1: this year, eighty six and a half is the number
Speaker 1: this actually feels about right now. Here's the thing. If
Speaker 1: you can find eighty five and a half somewhere or
Speaker 1: even something lower, at some point, I would think about that.
Speaker 1: Here's what the A's for me is. If this young
Speaker 1: pitching all clicks ye, if it's aj Puck, if it's
Speaker 1: Hazel's Lozardo, if Montas bounces back, they're gonna crush this.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, they're gonna be probably fighting with Houston
Speaker 1: for the top of this division. If you're pitching does
Speaker 1: what they're capable of? The question is innings. The question
Speaker 1: is the war of attrition, and if the A's are
Speaker 1: up to the task. So I'll ask you do you
Speaker 1: think they are?
Speaker 3: I think so, yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean I don't feel as strongly about it as
Speaker 2: I do on the Angels.
Speaker 3: And again, they're at eighty six. Everywhere. Every book is
Speaker 3: eighty six at this point. So this is eighty six
Speaker 3: and a half. That's we're going to get it again.
Speaker 2: This is one I'm just pointing it out because we
Speaker 2: were teasing about me that this is one where Pokoda
Speaker 2: is under, like significantly under. But again, this is one
Speaker 2: where I think they just don't whatever their projection system is,
Speaker 2: they don't know how to capture what these teams are
Speaker 2: that are so forward thinking. And yeah, I like again
Speaker 2: another one where like the whole is greater than the
Speaker 2: some of their parts, you know.
Speaker 3: Their rotation.
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, Bassett is kind of a sneaky, decent
Speaker 2: major league starter, right Lozardo who we like for the upside.
Speaker 2: I really like Frankie Montass. Sounds like he's recovered from
Speaker 2: the COVID nineteen. Shan Manya obviously is there. Mike Fires
Speaker 2: is all there. They're all fine. They you know, they
Speaker 2: lost Hendrix, but they've got Rosenthal. He's battling a groin
Speaker 2: injury right now, but sounds like he'll be okay. The
Speaker 2: lineup as a whole is just solid. It doesn't blow
Speaker 2: you away, but they find ways to sort of do it.
Speaker 2: And they added Elvis Andris. It's basically been a ninety
Speaker 2: seven win team. You give them their pace from last
Speaker 2: year for three straight seasons, Like, this is just a
Speaker 2: team that knows how to win games. They're well coached,
Speaker 2: they're well managed. So eighty six and a half, I
Speaker 2: lean towards the over. I'm not as excited about it
Speaker 2: again as I am about the under on the Angels,
Speaker 2: but this is the one where I lean definitely towards
Speaker 2: the over.
Speaker 1: Okay, two other teams here before we close things out.
Speaker 1: We got the Seattle Mariners at seventy two and a half.
Speaker 1: Tricky one because we're excited about some of the young talent.
Speaker 1: But this kind of sounds like something we saw about
Speaker 1: before with some of these other teams, Like, Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: excited about Detroit's youug talent, but where are the wins?
Speaker 1: Seventy two and a half once again? Kind of feels
Speaker 1: about right, Yeah, ten games under five hundred. Yeah, that
Speaker 1: sounds like the Marinders to me.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 1: So it's a hard pass for me. How about for you?
Speaker 3: Man?
Speaker 2: I love it when we disagree on things, but I
Speaker 2: do not disagree with you here.
Speaker 3: This is like a hard pass from me.
Speaker 2: There's a line that I say to my wife when
Speaker 2: we're joking, which is a line from Brooklyn nine nine,
Speaker 2: which is after zero consideration, I can confidently say hard pass.
Speaker 3: And that's basically how I feel on this.
Speaker 2: Like I looked at this and I was like, yeah,
Speaker 2: I guess it could all go really well, but no,
Speaker 2: this is like ten games under five hundred.
Speaker 3: It's exactly what this team.
Speaker 2: I mean, not ten games, but ten games you know,
Speaker 2: over what it would take to get to five hundred.
Speaker 2: That's exactly what this team looks like to me, So
Speaker 2: hard pass, staying far away from it, no interest in
Speaker 2: betting it either way.
Speaker 1: And then there's a Texas Rangers sixty seven and a half,
Speaker 1: another one too, where I just don't see him mat
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes with a team, you want to see
Speaker 1: a plan. I have no idea what the Rangers plan is.
Speaker 1: The Rangers have no idea what their plan is. I
Speaker 1: see Joey Gallo, I see some home runs. I see
Speaker 1: they'll probably win somewhere around I don't know. Sixty seven games.
Speaker 1: Once again, just hard passway because I don't I don't
Speaker 1: see how they get above it, and it's already too
Speaker 1: low of a number where if I had to lean
Speaker 1: I probably lean slightly on the over here, just because like,
Speaker 1: I just don't know if they're closer to losing one
Speaker 1: hundred games as this total is telling you. But then again,
Speaker 1: you look at the rest of this rotation, you go,
Speaker 1: oh maybe, I mean, this is another rotation that is
Speaker 1: it's brutal. They are the pitching haves and have nots,
Speaker 1: and I just think over one sixty two this year
Speaker 1: off the COVID season, where people don't have any stamina,
Speaker 1: it is going to be glaringly obvious, which is why
Speaker 1: I keep coming back to Cleveland because Cleveland does have that,
Speaker 1: and I think that is a huge separator where if
Speaker 1: you're gonna give you a five hundred Cleveland team, you
Speaker 1: take your shot on that one because it's a good
Speaker 1: chance that that pitching wins out over the long haul.
Speaker 1: But the Texas Rangers sixty seven and a half, I'm out,
Speaker 1: where are you?
Speaker 3: And it's a good point on Cleveland.
Speaker 1: By the way, I think that's try every now and
Speaker 1: then something smart once everyone.
Speaker 3: Show firshit, I look, this is something.
Speaker 2: Where I like you, this is not like one of
Speaker 2: my favorite bets on the board, I actually have forced
Speaker 2: to choose. I would lean under there are sixty six
Speaker 2: and a half's out there, so if you know at
Speaker 2: that point, especially stay away. Sixty seven and a half,
Speaker 2: I kind of lean under. Again, this is a team
Speaker 2: that a does not seem to have interest in competing
Speaker 2: this year. The bullpen is really bad. Jose Leclerk, I
Speaker 2: guess will Close, and I Jonathan Hernandez now I just
Speaker 2: today has something apparently with his jucll and his elbow.
Speaker 2: So the bullpen really is not going to be good.
Speaker 2: The offense, I like Willie Calhoun, and I like Joey.
Speaker 3: Gallo, and that's about it.
Speaker 2: And the rotation is just yeah, it's I mean, I
Speaker 2: like Dane Dunning, you know, as a long term guy,
Speaker 2: and but yeah, Kyle Gibson is your number one.
Speaker 3: That's just not gonna work.
Speaker 1: So, oh god, I.
Speaker 3: Would lean under.
Speaker 2: I would lean under, but I'm not nearly as strong
Speaker 2: as the Tigers and the Orioles, the bottom feeders of
Speaker 2: those divisions. I like those much more so. Mostly a
Speaker 2: stay away from me, but I had, if I had
Speaker 2: to choose, I would lean under.
Speaker 1: All I want to remind everybody hit us up at
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com, and of course you could check out
Speaker 1: the MLB win totals at bettingpros dot Com, Slash MLB
Speaker 1: wins Dan anything else going on fun and exciting in
Speaker 1: the world of VP.
Speaker 2: Uh these days, We've got so much March Madness stuff
Speaker 2: that's about to drop.
Speaker 3: It's going to be awesome.
Speaker 2: We're gonna have this bracket optimizer, which I'm not even
Speaker 2: gonna tell you about yet because I'm gonna wait till
Speaker 2: the launches where it is going to be spectacular. You
Speaker 2: are going to be able to fill out a bracket
Speaker 2: depending on where your play and your your scoring system
Speaker 2: that they warred points on it, depending on the size
Speaker 2: of your pool.
Speaker 3: You can start with a.
Speaker 2: Consensus sort of picks of people who have put in brackets.
Speaker 2: If you like, trust a bunch of people like we
Speaker 2: do with consensus experts. It is going to be spectacular.
Speaker 2: Be on the lookout for the bracket optimizer. We will
Speaker 2: have more about that next week.
Speaker 1: I need a life optimizer. Let's let's get working on that.
Speaker 1: We get the life optimizer and then we're then we're
Speaker 1: all set.
Speaker 3: So we're in works for it for you. But it's
Speaker 3: like forty years in development, so we got.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not going anywhere. I have a very long
Speaker 1: term contract here Just to recap too, I am very
Speaker 1: bullish on the White Sox and the Indians. That's where
Speaker 1: really I'm looking Dan. Final thoughts here as we close
Speaker 1: the close the door on the American League win totals.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Royals over.
Speaker 2: I think this team is definitely going to be closer
Speaker 2: to five hundred than people are giving them credit for.
Speaker 2: At the same time, I really like the under on
Speaker 2: the Angels because.
Speaker 3: I do not get it.
Speaker 2: They are poor defensively, the rotation is mediocre at best.
Speaker 2: The bullpen is just okay. So those are my two
Speaker 2: favorite over on the Royals under on the Angels.
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for us, but the story
Speaker 1: of the game goes on. For Dan Harris, I'm Joe Pizzapia.
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time, kids,