1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,800
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

2
00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:07,120
Speaker 2: Do us prout read a lot? They're up for running

3
00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:14,880
Speaker 2: a game so smoothe so sweet, splendid.

4
00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,440
Speaker 3: Six sing just glorious extrocution.

5
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,160
Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

6
00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

7
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,600
Speaker 4: How shot with that shop of mind, my buddy, And

8
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 4: that's why you.

9
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 3: See nor beautiful tiers.

10
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 2: Look at his movements the.

11
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them.

12
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:36,960
Speaker 2: Shut up.

13
00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:45,080
Speaker 3: I'm trying the wall. It's left too the wide eyed

14
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 3: drill fibus, How old earth big that happens?

15
00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,400
Speaker 5: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

16
00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,920
Speaker 5: podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by Bet

17
00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,360
Speaker 5: three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up

18
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 5: with Promo Action to get BET three six fives exclusive

19
00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,960
Speaker 5: sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one

20
00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,880
Speaker 5: dollar on any game, get two hundred dollars free. I'm

21
00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,440
Speaker 5: Michael Leeboff. I host this podcast and I have two

22
00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,200
Speaker 5: co hosts. One is bj Cunningham. He's in Iowa. The

23
00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,679
Speaker 5: other one is Anthony de Bundo, He's somewhere in Pennsylvania.

24
00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,600
Speaker 5: One is an Arsenal fan one is a Tottenham Hotspur fan.

25
00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:23,399
Speaker 2: Neither of them have.

26
00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,479
Speaker 5: Much conviction on this game, but I do. Let's talk

27
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,399
Speaker 5: about the North London derby Arsenals at home. There even

28
00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,400
Speaker 5: money favorite Spurs coming to you at plus two to fifty.

29
00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 5: The draw is plus two to sixty. Of course, these

30
00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,160
Speaker 5: odds are from bet three six five. This is seven

31
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,120
Speaker 5: thirty am kickoff on Saturday. Of course, the Premier League

32
00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:41,680
Speaker 5: loves to schedule these derbies early.

33
00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:42,840
Speaker 1: I like Spurs here.

34
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,200
Speaker 5: I'll go into it a little bit more, but I

35
00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:45,760
Speaker 5: want to flip it to you guys, since you are

36
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:47,680
Speaker 5: on either side of this rivalry.

37
00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,040
Speaker 1: Anthony, Let's start.

38
00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 5: With you in our sheet where we run down on

39
00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,040
Speaker 5: all our bets. You said Spurs or nothing, but it

40
00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,240
Speaker 5: sounds like, just from what we were talking about before

41
00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:58,000
Speaker 5: hitting record, you're leaning towards nothing.

42
00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,640
Speaker 4: I am leaning towards the first of all, this match

43
00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,600
Speaker 4: at seven thirty and I blamed the Premier League schedule

44
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,240
Speaker 4: makers for making me wake up that early for the

45
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 4: you know, one of the two biggest matches of the season.

46
00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,560
Speaker 4: But this has been dominated by the home team. This

47
00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,079
Speaker 4: rivalry dating back to you know, the last ten years,

48
00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,320
Speaker 4: Arsenal have had a lot of success at home against Spurs,

49
00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,560
Speaker 4: and that has that continued into the last season, even

50
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,280
Speaker 4: when Spurs were at their best. They struggled in this

51
00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,359
Speaker 4: fixture twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, when Spurs were clearly better

52
00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,519
Speaker 4: than Arsenal, lost to nil, lost four two bjayeh. The

53
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,959
Speaker 4: last time that Spurs won at Arsenal in the league

54
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,399
Speaker 4: or don't twenty ten. So it's been a long time.

55
00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,440
Speaker 4: Wow since they've won the UH was in high school then, yeah,

56
00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 4: I was eleven, So yeah, it's been a long It's

57
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 4: been a long time since versus one at Arsenal. I

58
00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,120
Speaker 4: think there's something to be said for that. With that

59
00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:50,840
Speaker 4: being said, you look at these two teams. Arsenal have

60
00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,840
Speaker 4: been better for my numbers better if you look across

61
00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,840
Speaker 4: the board, whether it's expected goals A loud, expected goals four,

62
00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,280
Speaker 4: their ball progression numbers have been better, and so I

63
00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,519
Speaker 4: powerrate Arsenal as a slightly better team than Spurs. They're

64
00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 4: at home. My number is pretty close to right. I

65
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,040
Speaker 4: do show no value on either side. My number is

66
00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,800
Speaker 4: technically suggesting that Arsenal's inflated, but with the vig included,

67
00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,079
Speaker 4: I don't have that edge here, and from a matchup

68
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:15,839
Speaker 4: point of view, I do see the case for Todd

69
00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,800
Speaker 4: because I think with Party out that may limit how

70
00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,239
Speaker 4: much they're able to dominate the midfield. Arsenal still have

71
00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,800
Speaker 4: some fullback questions with injuries coming back with Zinchenko, and

72
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,280
Speaker 4: we're not sure exactly who's going to make the start there.

73
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,280
Speaker 4: I think, you know, Tomyasu has been inconsistent lately for

74
00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:32,520
Speaker 4: Arsenal when he's been out there, so I think those

75
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,000
Speaker 4: are the two biggest kind of question marks. How much

76
00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,640
Speaker 4: control this matches Arsenal really have and when they lose

77
00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,760
Speaker 4: the ball. We've seen Arsenal be very vulnerable against the

78
00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,440
Speaker 4: Man United, for example, and I think Spurs can do

79
00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,960
Speaker 4: a lot of similar things in behind in this matchup.

80
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:51,640
Speaker 4: So we have not seen, you know, Conte versus Arteta

81
00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,360
Speaker 4: in its truest form yet because the first match last

82
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,360
Speaker 4: year was Nuno and it was terrible. The second match,

83
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,400
Speaker 4: Arsenal controlled the possession in the first twenty minutes, but

84
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 4: Spurs consistently looked dangerous. But of course Rob Holding will

85
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,440
Speaker 4: not be starting in this game, so I hope it's

86
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 4: a huge help for the gunners. But of course there

87
00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:12,320
Speaker 4: was an early goal in red card in that game.

88
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,040
Speaker 4: That kind of threw everything off, so I think you

89
00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:18,479
Speaker 4: have to uh not throw out what happened. But that

90
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,040
Speaker 4: also was at Tottenham, so I think, you know, all

91
00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,520
Speaker 4: in all, it's a very interesting match. I am not

92
00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:25,560
Speaker 4: going to be betting at the current number, but if

93
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,160
Speaker 4: if we do get some more Arsenal steam, I'll be

94
00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:28,119
Speaker 4: on Tottenham for sure.

95
00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:30,479
Speaker 6: We probably will get more Tottenham steam because that's what

96
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:31,920
Speaker 6: keeps happening in the market with tot Ham.

97
00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, this this match towards the end of

98
00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:35,080
Speaker 2: last season, like it sucked.

99
00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,400
Speaker 6: Like you mentioned, Arsenal was pretty good for the first

100
00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,479
Speaker 6: twenty minutes and then rob holding out a red card.

101
00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:41,920
Speaker 6: Arteta for whatever reason, tried to play a four to

102
00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:43,840
Speaker 6: three three instead of a normal four two three one.

103
00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:45,840
Speaker 6: They didn't have Thomas Party, they had el Nny in

104
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:46,279
Speaker 6: the middle.

105
00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:47,440
Speaker 2: It just didn't work.

106
00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,680
Speaker 6: Obviously after the red card, things just you know, went

107
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,960
Speaker 6: downhill very fast. I think this is another situation where

108
00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,960
Speaker 6: Arsenal is overvalued. I still, on a neutral field, would

109
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:57,080
Speaker 6: have Tattenham favored.

110
00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:58,000
Speaker 2: I mean, if we're.

111
00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,800
Speaker 6: Taking essentially Conte's numbers from money took over and Arsenal's

112
00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,400
Speaker 6: numbers from last year, like even counting a little bit

113
00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,159
Speaker 6: for this year, Tottam's been better on x G Stylistically,

114
00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 6: it sets up really well for them. And the perfect

115
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,560
Speaker 6: picture of it is the Manchester United match against Arsenal

116
00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,240
Speaker 6: United was really good for the first twenty minutes. They

117
00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:16,840
Speaker 6: got the goal and then they kind of just sat back,

118
00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:18,479
Speaker 6: played a little block and they just looked a counter

119
00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:22,080
Speaker 6: Arsenal and it worked. Like Arsenal was very vulnerable. They

120
00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:23,800
Speaker 6: got in behind a bunch of times. You saw it

121
00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,279
Speaker 6: on Saturday with Tottenham against Lester. Lester's obviously a different story,

122
00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,120
Speaker 6: but just the ability Tottenham has to just punish you

123
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,159
Speaker 6: on the counter attack and I think that's what they're

124
00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:33,120
Speaker 6: going to set up to do here.

125
00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,320
Speaker 2: So you know, I only have Arsenal projected.

126
00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 6: At plus one five, So if I wasn't an Arsenal fan,

127
00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,640
Speaker 6: i'd be playing Tottenham plus half a goal. But I

128
00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 6: can't bet against my team, especially in the North London Derby.

129
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,560
Speaker 6: And you know it's interesting because also we have the

130
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,440
Speaker 6: case with Tottenham that they played one Big Six side

131
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 6: it was Chelsea, and I think we can all admit

132
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,039
Speaker 6: that Chelsea was by far the better side Tottenham tried

133
00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,760
Speaker 6: to play essentially some type of counterattacking style and Chelsea

134
00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,760
Speaker 6: got a bunch of chances. They had thirty nine touches

135
00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,120
Speaker 6: in the penalty area. You know, XG came out to

136
00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,280
Speaker 6: just one point four to one point one. So if

137
00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,920
Speaker 6: Arsenal can somehow repeat that blueprints and hopefully stop Tattenham

138
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:14,600
Speaker 6: on the counter without Thomas Party, it can be hard.

139
00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,400
Speaker 6: It looks like he's a questiona more right now. If

140
00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,159
Speaker 6: he's out, that's that's tough for Arsenal. So I will

141
00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,400
Speaker 6: be sitting this one out and I hope Anthony and

142
00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,719
Speaker 6: Michael that you two lose all of your money on

143
00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:25,160
Speaker 6: this match.

144
00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,880
Speaker 1: This is a good situation for our podcast.

145
00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,120
Speaker 5: I think I think both of you two are very

146
00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,839
Speaker 5: sharp gentlemen, and you're kind of in your own heads

147
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:35,800
Speaker 5: because it's a rivalry match, Like I get it, like

148
00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:39,560
Speaker 5: I do this before a lot of Everton matches, islander games, everything.

149
00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,280
Speaker 5: It is so obvious to me what the better bet

150
00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,040
Speaker 5: here is. It is so obvious that it's Tottenham. It's

151
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 5: a stylistic thing more than anything. Like we've talked about

152
00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:50,880
Speaker 5: this how many times on this podcast and how many

153
00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:51,800
Speaker 5: times has it worked out?

154
00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:54,520
Speaker 1: It comes down to style with this team much more.

155
00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:54,960
Speaker 2: Than the numbers.

156
00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,159
Speaker 1: Like if this team, if Tottenham.

157
00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:00,040
Speaker 5: Is able to sit back and absorb and defend and

158
00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,480
Speaker 5: then counter and you're getting them as an.

159
00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,440
Speaker 2: Underdog to do it, can do it.

160
00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 1: Yes, exactly, just take it. It's that simple.

161
00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 5: I like Tottenham plus two fifty at bet three six

162
00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:12,600
Speaker 5: five things is a good number. Antony said, maybe you

163
00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 5: have Arsenal slightly ahead of Spurs right now in your

164
00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 5: power ratings.

165
00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,880
Speaker 2: You think they're a little bit of a better team, and.

166
00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:19,360
Speaker 5: That might be right over the long term, but you

167
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 5: could just throw that out in this match, right like

168
00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 5: this is the styles make fights kind of situation and

169
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,000
Speaker 5: stylistically it's a great setup for Spurs.

170
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 1: It just is I'm sorry to say it, Bja. I

171
00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,040
Speaker 1: hope you lois Yeah, I mean I get it. And

172
00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:34,960
Speaker 1: they odds say that they're more likely to do it

173
00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,960
Speaker 1: than than to win. But I just think this is

174
00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,320
Speaker 1: a really good spot to back Tottenham.

175
00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,559
Speaker 5: And I also want to say this is a young

176
00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,400
Speaker 5: Arsenal team and this is not a young Spurs team,

177
00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:48,000
Speaker 5: like this is a Spurs team that has been through

178
00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,400
Speaker 5: these kind of wars before too so and with a

179
00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 5: manager who thrives on these kind of situations, So yeah,

180
00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:57,000
Speaker 5: I think Spurs is a banger here to start it off. Now,

181
00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:58,560
Speaker 5: we're going to flip to Sunday real quick because we

182
00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,840
Speaker 5: got another derby to talk before we start going down

183
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 5: the ten am kickoffs on Saturday nine am on Sunday

184
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,960
Speaker 5: City and United at the Etty had Man City. You're

185
00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:10,440
Speaker 5: gonna have to lace some wood with them minus three

186
00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,920
Speaker 5: hundred at bet three six five the Red Devils plus

187
00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 5: six fifty. The draw is plus four to seventy five.

188
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,080
Speaker 5: I think the question here is pretty simple. Can you

189
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:21,520
Speaker 5: trust the United defense to hold City long enough to

190
00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,240
Speaker 5: be able to nick a counter, to steal a goal

191
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 5: and maybe make this a game like we saw with

192
00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,600
Speaker 5: what happened with aston Villa. Like they're obviously a much

193
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:30,880
Speaker 5: better team than aston Villa, but if they they're gonna

194
00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:32,679
Speaker 5: have to follow that blueprint and in a weird way,

195
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,840
Speaker 5: just don't think that they have the personnel to do it.

196
00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:36,640
Speaker 5: So that the number is a little tempting on United.

197
00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,200
Speaker 5: But I'll be passing here, BJ. You see this one

198
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:41,240
Speaker 5: turning into a little bit of a route.

199
00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:43,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, I have to take a city here just out

200
00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,960
Speaker 6: of principle, So Yeah, it's weird because with all of

201
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:50,679
Speaker 6: the cancelations due to the Queen dying and also lea

202
00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:54,679
Speaker 6: international break, United hasn't played since September fourth in the

203
00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:56,880
Speaker 6: Premier League. They have played two Europa League matches against

204
00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,760
Speaker 6: so Skidada and then Sheriff. They really weren't good against Sociatedad.

205
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,760
Speaker 6: They only had point seven xt year and fifteen shots.

206
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,200
Speaker 6: They eat Sheriff to nothing, but I mean they barely

207
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,800
Speaker 6: created one and a half expected goals. They allunched twelve

208
00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,880
Speaker 6: chaff to get twelve shots off. And I mean listen,

209
00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 6: it's a different manager and United's playing a different style,

210
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,920
Speaker 6: more defensive, counterattacking style when they had play bigger sides.

211
00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,920
Speaker 2: But the last two meetings between these two teams, I mean.

212
00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:25,440
Speaker 6: City has just absolutely bludgeted them. I mean the combined

213
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,600
Speaker 6: next year was four point six to one point one,

214
00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,679
Speaker 6: box entries forty five to seven and shots forty to

215
00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,440
Speaker 6: ten and Cities held over sixty five percent possession in

216
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,240
Speaker 6: both those matches. Pap has just completely dominated. Now on

217
00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,559
Speaker 6: the flip side of that, you have to say, okay,

218
00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,840
Speaker 6: well City hasn't played a Big six side yet like

219
00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,480
Speaker 6: they've been going through essentially the bottom half of the table.

220
00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:47,880
Speaker 6: We can rant and rave how good Holland's been, how

221
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 6: they have a plus twelve expected Goldffrenchill. That's all good,

222
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,400
Speaker 6: but they haven't really been tested yet. Like the biggest

223
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 6: test they had was against Dortmand and the Champions League

224
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 6: and they.

225
00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:55,000
Speaker 2: Were not that good.

226
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,840
Speaker 6: Like they only created point nine next year off fourteen shots.

227
00:09:58,160 --> 00:09:59,640
Speaker 6: They got a lot of touches in the penalty area,

228
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,719
Speaker 6: but Dormann held up pretty well there. They become a

229
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 6: pretty good defensive team, like we've talked about. Now that

230
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,679
Speaker 6: they have better center backs, United's looked better defensively. And

231
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,199
Speaker 6: unfortunately Harry McGuire's injured for this match so he's not

232
00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,560
Speaker 6: going to play. But I think yeah, like you said

233
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,440
Speaker 6: off the top, Michael Han, United sit and play in

234
00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,760
Speaker 6: a low block and hold off City and get some

235
00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,480
Speaker 6: chances on the counter, because we've seen the one team

236
00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,679
Speaker 6: that's been able to cause a lot of problems on

237
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,720
Speaker 6: the counter was Newcastle against City. I mean they had

238
00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 6: bowloader chances and created close to expected goals against them.

239
00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,800
Speaker 6: Can United repeat that type of blueprints? I'm not so

240
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,680
Speaker 6: sure right now. You know the matches against Liverpool and Arsenal,

241
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,199
Speaker 6: they won on XG, but they got severely.

242
00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,240
Speaker 2: You know, they didn't hold a lot of possession.

243
00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,400
Speaker 6: They got out shot a ton, and I think the

244
00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,720
Speaker 6: city defense is once again just putting the strangleholes on it.

245
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:50,280
Speaker 6: I don't think unit it's gonna be able to get

246
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,920
Speaker 6: out there on half, so I'm taking the City out

247
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:54,679
Speaker 6: of principle. I do have some value on them. I

248
00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,640
Speaker 6: think they're a good parlay piece. I've been projected at

249
00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,240
Speaker 6: minus three sixty, but you know, if you can find

250
00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,640
Speaker 6: a minus one half that's minus one ten or better,

251
00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:03,080
Speaker 6: I would there's some value on.

252
00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:03,640
Speaker 2: Sydney for me.

253
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,000
Speaker 5: The ten am slate on Saturday, we got to start

254
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,480
Speaker 5: with this one. It's I think Anthony had this match

255
00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:11,600
Speaker 5: circled a couple of weeks ago. You might even brought

256
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,240
Speaker 5: it up in a spot that you really were looking

257
00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,400
Speaker 5: forward to betting our Eagles. Crystal Palace there plus three

258
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,200
Speaker 5: thirty three of bet three six five at Selhurst Park

259
00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:23,200
Speaker 5: hosting Graham Potter's Chelsea odds on. They're minus one twenty

260
00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,360
Speaker 5: on the road draws plus two sixty. We came into

261
00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 5: the season really high in Crystal Palace. They didn't pay

262
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:30,600
Speaker 5: off and they haven't paid off A part of that,

263
00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,480
Speaker 5: I think is due to their schedule. They've already played Arsenal,

264
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,520
Speaker 5: Liverpool City and Newcastle, so this will be their fourth

265
00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,439
Speaker 5: Big sixth side in their first seven matches.

266
00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:41,720
Speaker 1: They haven't played since September third.

267
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 5: They had the pause for the Queen's death and then

268
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,480
Speaker 5: a rail strike that canceled their match with Brighton, so

269
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,839
Speaker 5: there one, three and two would draw loss, and they're

270
00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,520
Speaker 5: they're near the bottom of the Premier League and basically

271
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,480
Speaker 5: every defensive category that we think holds weight when it

272
00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,160
Speaker 5: comes to predictive metrics, I'm sticking by them. I think

273
00:11:58,160 --> 00:11:59,640
Speaker 5: this is a good spot against the team that's in

274
00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:01,920
Speaker 5: just going to have to adjust to a new manager

275
00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 5: and a place it's really hard to go to.

276
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:04,800
Speaker 2: And get a result.

277
00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,439
Speaker 5: So I really like Palace on the money line here

278
00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,960
Speaker 5: plus three thirty three, Anthony, I feel like you've been

279
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:12,600
Speaker 5: waiting to talk about this game for a long time.

280
00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,160
Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, look, you know, Palace is not if

281
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,960
Speaker 4: you look at the table, Palace is not particularly performed

282
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:19,280
Speaker 4: well to this point in the season. If you look

283
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,480
Speaker 4: at their underlying numbers, they have not performed on the season.

284
00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 4: But you know, the big thing that's kind of hung

285
00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,480
Speaker 4: over them has been the schedule, and you mentioned it

286
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,199
Speaker 4: if you bet them just against the spread, right, they

287
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:32,000
Speaker 4: covered against Liverpool, they beat Villa at home, they covered

288
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 4: depending on your number half cover against City or push

289
00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:37,920
Speaker 4: and then they covered against Newcastle on the road. So

290
00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,520
Speaker 4: they've performed a relative to the market pretty well. And

291
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,360
Speaker 4: they're expected goals four numbers have not been terrible full

292
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:48,920
Speaker 4: expected goal against Arsenal one point five Liverpool three against Villa. Okay,

293
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:50,719
Speaker 4: they got the City game, they only had point one,

294
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:52,920
Speaker 4: but it was kind of weird because of the fact

295
00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,160
Speaker 4: they scored two goals in their first shot, and you

296
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,600
Speaker 4: know Brentford and Newcastle they get about one expected goal.

297
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,600
Speaker 4: So now I come home and they're actually entering a

298
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,240
Speaker 4: very favorable portion of the schedule where this is a

299
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:04,160
Speaker 4: great by low on them.

300
00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:05,800
Speaker 3: If you're looking to buy into the.

301
00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,120
Speaker 4: Top half futures, this is a great spot. But really

302
00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:12,120
Speaker 4: this comes down to Chelsea still not quite solving their issues.

303
00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:12,319
Speaker 6: Now.

304
00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,960
Speaker 3: The one thing there is a break for both teams.

305
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,440
Speaker 4: I think the break probably benefits Chelsea more in this

306
00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,720
Speaker 4: situation just because they get more time with Potter, but

307
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,199
Speaker 4: a lot of the players would have been a way

308
00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,959
Speaker 4: on international duty in the last two weeks. Anyway, from

309
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,520
Speaker 4: a numbers point of view, I make Chelsea plus one

310
00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,480
Speaker 4: ten to get a result here. I have been lower

311
00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,760
Speaker 4: on Chelsea coming into the season. I remain lower on

312
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,160
Speaker 4: the Blues as a whole. I think they still have

313
00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,559
Speaker 4: problems with their midfield and their defense, and we saw

314
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 4: it against Salizburg. Dominate the ball Will Potter's possession centric

315
00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,880
Speaker 4: but maybe not quite create as many big scoring chances

316
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:52,400
Speaker 4: translate to having better attackers, I don't know. I think

317
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 4: there's still kind of a big question mark with the

318
00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,440
Speaker 4: Blues in terms of how they do going forward. But

319
00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:58,120
Speaker 4: I think this is just a good Palace spot at

320
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,559
Speaker 4: home once again, the Eagles at home.

321
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:01,839
Speaker 3: We back in them.

322
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:03,600
Speaker 5: Like you said, you're taking on a team that just

323
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 5: they haven't clicked yet. I think there's going to come

324
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,280
Speaker 5: a time in this season where Chelsea will they'll inevitably

325
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,280
Speaker 5: go in a run and they'll probably collect a couple

326
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,559
Speaker 5: of big wins over teams above them and the table

327
00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 5: or whatever. But until they get to that point, they're

328
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,880
Speaker 5: bet against team. For me especially, I guess a team

329
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,000
Speaker 5: like Palace getting a number like this at home BJ

330
00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 5: three for three on the Palace.

331
00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:25,280
Speaker 1: I'm assuming, yeah.

332
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 2: I'm on Palace as well, plus half a goal, plus

333
00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 2: one oh five. Yeah.

334
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 6: I think Anthony brought up a good point about Potter

335
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,640
Speaker 6: system and Chelsea's midfield you know, Potter system, the possession

336
00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 6: based style, it's also really reliant on counter pressing with

337
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,040
Speaker 6: those midfielders to win the ball back and hold that possession.

338
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 6: And I'm not sure Chelsea really has that type of

339
00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,160
Speaker 6: personnel that Potter's had with Brighton in terms of pressing midfielders.

340
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,960
Speaker 6: You know, contest questionable. The genial is not that great

341
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,840
Speaker 6: of a pressing midfielder. So it's it's there's some question

342
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,240
Speaker 6: marks surrounding Chelsea. On the flip side of that, I

343
00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,160
Speaker 6: mean we have to mention it every time Crystal Palace

344
00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 6: against the Big Six at home since it started last

345
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 6: season plus one point one unexpected gold differential.

346
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,479
Speaker 2: They they're them and Brentford are the only two teams.

347
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,800
Speaker 6: That have actually have a plus positive expected gold differential

348
00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,240
Speaker 6: against the Big Six at home. And I mean Chelsea,

349
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,400
Speaker 6: you know, to date, there's been three matches that I've

350
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,480
Speaker 6: circled that they've had to play essentially a team who's

351
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 6: going to sit in a low block and just look

352
00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,560
Speaker 6: the counter at them and they haven't really created much gains.

353
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,760
Speaker 6: It was Everton in week one they created point nine

354
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,960
Speaker 6: non penalty XG against west Ham they created point eight

355
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,480
Speaker 6: and then against Dinamo Zagreb they only created one and

356
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,560
Speaker 6: that ended the tutral era. So I believe in Graham

357
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 6: Potter and I believe that he will turn this Chelsea

358
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,600
Speaker 6: you know ship around. But it's maybe a little bit

359
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,800
Speaker 6: too soon in his air to start buying in on

360
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:41,280
Speaker 6: Graham Potter and he needs a little bit more time

361
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 6: to get the system ready to go. So yeah, I'm

362
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:45,720
Speaker 6: with you guys, purely like Anthony, I make Chelsea plus

363
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 6: one to eighteen for this match, so I'm taking Crystal

364
00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 6: Palace as well, all.

365
00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,520
Speaker 5: Three of us on Crystal Palace. So you know what

366
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 5: that means. Get your Chelsea bets in now. Let's move

367
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 5: to Bourne with and Brentford born with at home plus

368
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,720
Speaker 5: two thirty on the south coast, Brentford one twenty on

369
00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 5: the road, the draws plus two forty at Beth three

370
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,920
Speaker 5: six five The Cherries man twentieth in expectacles, four shots

371
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 5: and big chances created this season, yet they're hanging around

372
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 5: the mid table. It's hilarious. We've talked about it a

373
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,920
Speaker 5: couple of times, Gary O'Neil. Since taking over. They've got

374
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 5: to win and to draws no losses, but they've created

375
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 5: under one expectacle in each of those matches. So I

376
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:26,000
Speaker 5: don't think that their offense is good enough to cause

377
00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,680
Speaker 5: Brentford the trouble that you look for when you're trying

378
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:29,840
Speaker 5: to beat Brentford.

379
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 1: As a favorite. So I think this opens the door

380
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 1: for the Bees.

381
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 5: We don't typically bet them when they're this short, but

382
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 5: I think this born With team is against these like

383
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:42,960
Speaker 5: kind of mid table sides, especially at home, when they're

384
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 5: you're still getting like a plus number, it might be

385
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 5: worth it. So I'm going to be on Brentford here,

386
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 5: which I wasn't expecting to be. Like before I looked

387
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,560
Speaker 5: at the lines for all these matches, It's like I

388
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 5: was assuming Brentford was going to be too short.

389
00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 2: They're not.

390
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 1: So I actually like the number here, J What about you?

391
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, Well, first off, I need to make a point here,

392
00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,359
Speaker 6: is is Bournemous going to hire a manager? Like it

393
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 6: seems like you know, why would you you know, like

394
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 6: you could, I mean, your national break would have been

395
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 6: a good time like if you're going to fire Scott Parker,

396
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 6: I mean, were you thinking that Gary O'Neil was going

397
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 6: to be the answer.

398
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:14,440
Speaker 2: I don't know. That's just what I mean.

399
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,760
Speaker 5: I think what they're doing is he bought them more

400
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 5: time and then there's another huge international break coming in

401
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks, so it's you just kind of

402
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 5: see if he could see it's sort of true. You're right, Yeah,

403
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,760
Speaker 5: you're right and yeah, and then they can figure out like,

404
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:28,199
Speaker 5: all right, do we need to bring in, you know,

405
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 5: Sam Allardise type or can we bring someone in who's

406
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,159
Speaker 5: more of that, like more progressive style?

407
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 2: So uh no, I'm with you.

408
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 6: I like Brentford in this match too. I have them

409
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,199
Speaker 6: projected at plus one ten, so not a lot of

410
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,119
Speaker 6: value here for me. But I mean I went through

411
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 6: it down on the last pot. I mean Burnemouth's offense,

412
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,920
Speaker 6: Like the goal they had against Newcastle that was their

413
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 6: first big scoring chance created on the season.

414
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,119
Speaker 2: Like that's how bad their offenseve been.

415
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 6: They've created two point six expected goals from open play

416
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 6: and we're his seven matches in they're averaging less than

417
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,159
Speaker 6: seven shots match and seven box entries per ninety Like

418
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 6: they are truly, really really bad offensively and Brentford, I

419
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,200
Speaker 6: mean they're average. They've been pretty average defensively, like their

420
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 6: eleventh and non penalty the x she allowed, but Anthony

421
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 6: mentioned it on the last pot. They do such a

422
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 6: good job at preventing you from getting inside their box,

423
00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 6: like they're seventh in box entries allowed their second and

424
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,439
Speaker 6: crosses allowed into their penalty area. So I really have

425
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 6: a hard time seeing how Bournemouth is going to even

426
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,920
Speaker 6: create one expected goal in this match. And I think

427
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 6: the question we have to ask, if you're gonna take Brentford,

428
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,439
Speaker 6: if you have to ask ken Brentford break down a

429
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 6: low block. And I believe the answer to that is yes,

430
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 6: because what we've seen is that, yes, Brentford's got some.

431
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 2: Impressive offensive numbers.

432
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 6: They're averaging close to one point five non penalty x

433
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,199
Speaker 6: G per ninety and they've created twelve big scoring chances.

434
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 6: But two matches in particular where they were playing from

435
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 6: behind and they had to break down a low block.

436
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 6: It was Everton and it was Crystal Palace, and in

437
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,719
Speaker 6: those two matches they created a combined four point one

438
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 6: x SHE and had sixty eight touches in the penalty area.

439
00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 6: So I really like Brentford and the spot borne with

440
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 6: does have a couple injuries to deal with. One of

441
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,360
Speaker 6: their best attackers, David Brooks is out. Their best center back,

442
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 6: Lloyd Kelly is out. You know, the Bournemouth defense against

443
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 6: non big six sides has allowed ten point eight x

444
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,359
Speaker 6: G in four matches. So I think this is a

445
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 6: good spot for the Bees. I know we talked about

446
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 6: a lot last year how they weren't that good on

447
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 6: the road imperatively at home. I think this is a

448
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 6: good spot to back them on the road. So I

449
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 6: like the Bees plus one twenty Yeah.

450
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 3: I like the under personally.

451
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 4: You know, you look at the finishing tables both Bournemouth

452
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 4: and Brentford top five and goals minus expected goals this season.

453
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,719
Speaker 4: So they've run well, really really well offensively, and if

454
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 4: you switch it to how poorly have their defenses run, well,

455
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 4: nobody's run worse than Lester. But the next two teams

456
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,360
Speaker 4: are born Myth and Brentford. We'll get to them from

457
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 4: from I mean, I don't know what to do anymore,

458
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 4: but from from a perspective of that you mentioned.

459
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 3: You guys have talked about how bad this Bournemouth attack is.

460
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 4: I think the biggest question mark for Brentford has been

461
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 4: can they travel with their attack. Their attack has struggled

462
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 4: to create as many chances at home. I think something

463
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,360
Speaker 4: about the set piece stuff not traveling maybe as well

464
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 4: as it does at home where you get the crowd

465
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 4: behind them. I don't have a logic behind it, but

466
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 4: the Beast attack has not traveled nearly as well as

467
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 4: it's been at home. And this is just a classic

468
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,719
Speaker 4: sell high on two attacks that have finished and created

469
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 4: chances really in the Brentford case, at a rate much

470
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 4: better than I think they will going forward. A good

471
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 4: sell high spot on both attacks, like under two and

472
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 4: a half.

473
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 5: We'll say at ten am. First it's another Saturday kickoff.

474
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 5: Fulham plus two twenty at home hosting Newcastle Road favorite

475
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 5: plus one twenty five at Bet three six five.

476
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: The draw here is plus two forty.

477
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 5: Fulham is in sixth place right now. Didn't think I'd

478
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 5: be saying that on September twenty eighth. Obviously there's some

479
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 5: schedule and started team baby, Yeah, some schedulings. Just ea

480
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 5: can not born withouth rather yeah, exactly. They're in six

481
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,679
Speaker 5: but they have the fifteenth best expected gold differential and

482
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 5: they've lost. They just lost the expected gold battle to

483
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 5: not even forced in a three two win for Fulham.

484
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 5: So at some point the bottom is going to come

485
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 5: out here for the Cottagers. Meanwhile, Newcastle won five and

486
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,400
Speaker 5: one win draw loss. You know they have their own win.

487
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 5: I just realized this today because like, when's the last

488
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:07,360
Speaker 5: time Newcastle won opening opening weekend? Was there only win

489
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 5: six matches without a win for Eddie house Side, They're intense,

490
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,239
Speaker 5: but they have the fifth best expectacle differential and like

491
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 5: kind of with the Brentford logic here, I think you're

492
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 5: betting against Newcastle is much much better team here, a

493
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 5: much much better team. You're catching them in a in

494
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 5: a very weird patch of form with the six game

495
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 5: winless streak here, and Fulham is going to start trending down.

496
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 5: So I'm going to do something I very rarely do.

497
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 5: Back the Magpies. I think as a road favorite. So

498
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 5: that's two short road favorites in a row for me here, Anthony,

499
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 5: what do you like?

500
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 3: What have you become?

501
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 1: It's weird?

502
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I leaned toward Newcastle. I can't quite get there

503
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 4: on the number.

504
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: I think.

505
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 4: I just love Fulham so much that I consistently. I mean,

506
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 4: I've had success betting on them, but I also leaned

507
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 4: toward the under here. This is just I mean, this

508
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 4: Fulham attack continues to surprise me. They look completely lifeless

509
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 4: in the first half on the on the road at

510
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 4: forest Way back before the break. It was the Friday match.

511
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 4: I was feeling good about my under two and a

512
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 4: half and then they got a set piece goal and

513
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 4: then Forrest just completely collapsed. I'm not sure still what

514
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 4: happened in that match, but this Fulham attack continues to

515
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 4: be one due to regress Newcastle, We've talked about it.

516
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 4: This is a good bylow spot on them in a way,

517
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 4: they get a break to reset. They've played much better

518
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 4: than their numbers. They're in the bottom half of the

519
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 4: table despite very good underlying numbers. Fulham is in the

520
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 4: top half of the table despite not nearly as good

521
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 4: underlying numbers. So I do think regressions coming for Fulham.

522
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 4: For sure, they are not a top half team, But

523
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 4: overall I just a couple of leans here.

524
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 3: Not sure I end up getting to the number.

525
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 5: It's a good time to remind you you can follow

526
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 5: our bets in the Action Network app. It's The username

527
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 5: is wonder Goal Podcast all one word and you could

528
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 5: see our favorite bets for every week and the three

529
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 5: underdogs we are going to be picking. Speaking of underdogs,

530
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 5: Brighton eight to one on the road traveling to Liverpool

531
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 5: minus three hundred to draw here is plus four to

532
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 5: twenty five. I say this a lot when it comes

533
00:22:56,119 --> 00:23:00,479
Speaker 5: to prices like this on good teams that you can

534
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 5: look at the numbers. They'll help you get to a

535
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 5: certain point when it comes time to make a decision.

536
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 5: It can be just as simple as is it worth

537
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 5: passing up eight to one on what's been the seventh

538
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 5: best team in the Premier League this season and maybe

539
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 5: a little bit better than that in Brighton?

540
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 1: And I think the answer is no, you should.

541
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 5: Even though Liverpool's getting healthier and I expect them to

542
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 5: start charging their way up the table, this is not

543
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 5: This has not been a healthy matchup for them. Grand

544
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 5: Potter when he was in charge of Brighton like they

545
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 5: were getting results against Liverpool. They had that great draw

546
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 5: last year that was at anfield right with in Wetboo's goal.

547
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 5: And so this is this is a team at eight

548
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 5: to one you should just not really shake your head

549
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 5: at meanwhile, you two are going to be on the

550
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 5: sidelines BJ.

551
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: Why yeah, why no love here? Why no love for Brighton?

552
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's it's a number for me and it's kind

553
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 6: of low on Liverpool. Mine is two seventy five. I

554
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 6: know we love Brighton, but that's quite a low number.

555
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 6: They have a good lot, they have been good and

556
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 6: you know what, we have to also have to talk

557
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 6: about Brighton's new manager, because I mean, you met on

558
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 6: the last part. This is a very well run club

559
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 6: and they made them perfect tire. They went and got shocktart.

560
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 6: I mean, if you look at he was a manager

561
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 6: at the Swallow for three years before that. He's very

562
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 6: possession dominant, same thing that Potter was. He loves to counterpress.

563
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 6: The similar like the styles are very very similar. And

564
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 6: I was listening to an interview that he did and

565
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 6: he was talking about how he wants his teams to

566
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 6: play out from the back, and you know, he doesn't

567
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 6: want to play it long because if he plays it long,

568
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 6: he says, then I'm making a bet. He goes, I

569
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 6: don't like to bet, so I tell my guys that

570
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 6: we need to play it out from the back. So

571
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 6: it's going to be pretty much the same similar type

572
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 6: system for Brighton, so I think the Brighton train's going

573
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 6: to continue on even without Potter.

574
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 2: I really do believe in DESSERVEI. I've read a ton

575
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 2: of stuff about him.

576
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 6: He seems like a really intelligent young manager who's worked

577
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 6: his way up through the Italian you know system from

578
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 6: you know, sixth seventh division all the way up to

579
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 6: the top flight, very similar to how Potter did it.

580
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 6: So I truly believe in this guy. He plays the

581
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 6: exact same system. As far as this match is concerned.

582
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 6: I mean, Liverpool still does have some injuries we have

583
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 6: to deal with here, and it is the first match

584
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 6: in not really a new system, but under a new manager.

585
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 6: So I need to see one match with Deserbi before

586
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 6: I decide to jump back in on the Seagulls, and

587
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 6: I don't it would I think it would be.

588
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: Kind of irresponsible for me to just jump back in,

589
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 2: especially at this love of number.

590
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 6: Now, if Liverpool gets steamed and I can get Brighton

591
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 6: plus four and a half at let's say even money

592
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 6: or better, I'm going to do that. But other than that,

593
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 6: I'm just still on the sidelines and watch Deserby in

594
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 6: his first.

595
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 5: Match or you could just bypass goal and a half

596
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 5: and hop and hop on and hop on the eight

597
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 5: to what I could.

598
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: We'll see what happened match. So let's hope Liverpool get steamed.

599
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 1: Anthony ednything for you here real quick.

600
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

601
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,479
Speaker 4: I also lean toward Brighton, but I think bj hit

602
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 4: the Hea nail on the head. The market has downgraded

603
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 4: Liverpool quite a bit. I thought we'd get to here

604
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 4: even at a goal on a quarter I think are

605
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 4: three quarters. I think I'd be in on Brighton, but

606
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 4: the number is just too low now and Liverpool look

607
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 4: extremely impressive at home against IAX. I think there could

608
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 4: be a balance back coming for the Reds in terms

609
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 4: of performance. That being said, the deft I think still

610
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 4: will remain vulnerable. I do continue to believe that that

611
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 4: defense we saw last year will not be repeated, and

612
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 4: they have regressed. So I think that from a numbers

613
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 4: point of view, I can't get there. But I do

614
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 4: see the case for the Brighton and I would not

615
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 4: fault anybody for betting them at any time in this situation.

616
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, how are they going to contend with two of

617
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 5: the best players of the world, Lean Trossard and Pascal

618
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 5: gross I don't know.

619
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: Now those guys are magic. All right, let's talk.

620
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 5: About the headliner for the weekend and another bright young manager.

621
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 5: Frank Lampard and his toffees get on this train right

622
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 5: now before everyone else.

623
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 4: They pointed less than point six expected goals against west.

624
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,719
Speaker 5: Ham, they won one nail. They looked fine, They were

625
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 5: in control of that game. Southampton is hosting Everden Saints

626
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 5: plus one fifteen at Bet three six five Everden plus

627
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 5: two to forty.

628
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 2: The draw also two.

629
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 5: Forty Pickford Jodan Pickford remains out Nathan Patterson. That's actually

630
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 5: a big loss as well. Looked really good. Best Scottish

631
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 5: fullback I've ever seen. But Everdon they're unbeaten. They're unbeaten

632
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 5: since August thirteenth. Their last loss came in Gerard versus

633
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 5: Lampard on August thirteenth. They're one four and two win

634
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 5: draw loss on the season. Five goals for six goals

635
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 5: against eleven total goals on the season and Everton matches

636
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 5: one point five to seven per I bet you guys

637
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 5: know this, But you know the only team in the

638
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 5: Premier League with a lower total goals per match on

639
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 5: the season, Wolves Wolves the Saints offense. I think Everden's

640
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 5: defense has improved.

641
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 2: The numbers are going to start to show it soon.

642
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 5: They're very solid with Cody and Tarkowski and Adresa Gay

643
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 5: and then protecting them and just kind of putting out

644
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 5: the little fires. Meanwhile, Southampton continues to struggle generating scoring

645
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 5: chances seventeenth in non penalty spectacles and below average twelfth

646
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 5: in creating big scoring chances. And like I said in

647
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: our last time, when I highlighted Everton as my favorite

648
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 5: bet over west Ham, you could just see that the

649
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 5: team is pulling in the right direction, like they're pulling

650
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 5: in the same direction. Everyone is on the same page.

651
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 5: This is a team that's kind of build in the

652
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 5: image of the manager for the first time at Everton

653
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 5: in a long time. Because think about the guys who

654
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 5: the turnover in the dugout just forever, so there's there

655
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 5: was all this dead weight. They're finally starting to be

656
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 5: a cohesive unit. I think their gifts just continue to

657
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 5: trend up. I think it's a good number here. I

658
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 5: think Evertt are the better team than Southampton as well,

659
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 5: So I'll take another road team here plus two forty

660
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 5: the Toffees BJ come on.

661
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 6: I'm scrolling the injury report I got. I was like, oh,

662
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 6: is he not going to be on here? Oh it

663
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 6: looks like Dominic Calvalin's out again.

664
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: We don't need we got Neil Moan. Did you see

665
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: what he did?

666
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 6: Yeah?

667
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did it out.

668
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 6: Nathan Patterson's out, Townsend's out, Pickford's out. I mean, I mean,

669
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 6: but only the seasons able to play Everton at this number.

670
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 6: This is the match that Everton just got absolutely blasted

671
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 6: by Southampton and Lampard's I believe it was his second

672
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 6: or third match in charge when he took over Everton.

673
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:53,239
Speaker 2: I mean Southampton beat them.

674
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 6: They won on XG two to two point three. Everton

675
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 6: just can't create going forward.

676
00:28:58,160 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: I'm sorry.

677
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 6: Like their offense is just bad, Like they're they're decent,

678
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 6: not playing a low block, like I get it, Like

679
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 6: Tarkowski and Cody are like the two prototypical center backs.

680
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 6: He'd want to just sit and play in a low block.

681
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 6: But definitely not playing Southampton as a favorite. I think

682
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 6: the number is about correct here, so I am passing.

683
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 6: But these Averton injuries, yeah, I cann octet behind them

684
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 6: with this injury report right here.

685
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 5: They have the best midfield trio in the Premier League

686
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 5: right now with Onana Ghana and Awobe who's Awobey's turned

687
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 5: into Leo Messi over the past six months or so.

688
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 5: So I'm going to keep trying to convince you guys

689
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 5: that this everted team is going to pay you back,

690
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 5: and they already started to a little bit. So maybe

691
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 5: next episode when they take on Man United in their

692
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 5: next Man.

693
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll be in that. Ye yeah me.

694
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 5: All right, let's go to the twelve thirty pm game

695
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 5: on Saturday. Boy putting west Ham and Wolves as a

696
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 5: standalone match on Saturday, right after college.

697
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: Football kicks off.

698
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 5: I don't know how many people are going to be

699
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 5: watching this one. I will be watching it because.

700
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: I like Wolves.

701
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 5: They're plus three twenty on the road west Ham minus

702
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 5: won ten. The draw is plus two fifty. This is

703
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 5: as much a fade of west Ham as it is

704
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 5: a bet on Wolves. They just shouldn't be against anybody,

705
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 5: maybe outside of Nottingham Forest at Bournemouth in the Premier

706
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 5: League right now. Eighteenth in creating expected goals seventeenth and

707
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 5: shots for ninety sixteenth and big chances. The Wolves offense

708
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 5: we know, doesn't create much going forward, and then the

709
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 5: ones the chances they do create, they don't finish. But

710
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,959
Speaker 5: both of these teams are decent defensively. We said it

711
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 5: the last time we talked about west Ham. They're they're

712
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 5: starting to look much more like your prototypical Moisy and

713
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 5: David Moyes's side good defense. Offense could use a little work,

714
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 5: but Wolves are just as good defensively. So I think

715
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 5: you're getting a really good number here to take on

716
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 5: west Ham. You know, when you look at it that way,

717
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 5: it's a little different from saying like, oh, you're getting

718
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 5: a good number of Wolves, but I think you're just

719
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 5: getting a good number to go against west Ham. So

720
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 5: I'll be on Wolverhampton, Anthony, what do you have?

721
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I think we have two kind of

722
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 4: I don't want to say desperate teams, but teams that

723
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: have definitely seen pressure. You know, from a narrative point

724
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 4: of view, there's pressure on both managers to create more

725
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 4: than they have and to score more than they have

726
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 4: at this point of the season. And I think this

727
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 4: is a good by low on both attacks.

728
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 3: I know what you know.

729
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 4: The Wolves created six expected goals six point two and

730
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 4: seven matches, but West Ham have created even less so

731
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 4: or six point three depending, you know, so basically the

732
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 4: same amount.

733
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: Neither attack has been any good.

734
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 4: But I also think from aggression point of view, both

735
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 4: teams only scored three, so a lot of that has

736
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 4: come from bad finishing variants. I don't expect them to

737
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 4: continue for these two clubs forever. We saw even Wolves

738
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 4: as bad as they were last year in terms of

739
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 4: creating chances, they did finish right around those. They're actually

740
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 4: numbers for the season in attack defense not as much.

741
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 4: And I think that overall you're going to get any

742
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 4: more open game than maybe you will anticipate. The market

743
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 4: is just too low on both teams to score at

744
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 4: minus one hundred, so I bet it all right.

745
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 5: Now, we'll flip the page to Sunday morning, and we

746
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 5: talked about styles making fights right off the top with

747
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 5: Spurs and Arsenal. I don't know if you can get

748
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 5: two more different mid table clubs and leads and ass

749
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 5: and Villa leads at home plus one thirty seven at

750
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 5: bet three six five Villa plus two hundred.

751
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: Boy, this Villa offense, Anthony, I know.

752
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 5: These are your boys because the Steven Jerry connection, and.

753
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: Then both them to Liverpool too.

754
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 5: But you guys, this is you also are a big,

755
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,479
Speaker 5: big leads guy as well. I'll just turn it over

756
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 5: to you because I got nothing here. I want to

757
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 5: bet leads, but I think the numbers just a little

758
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 5: too short.

759
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I generally agree.

760
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 4: I actually lean leads here if they were to get

761
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 4: you know, I know Bja kind of leans the other way.

762
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 4: From a stylistic point of view, I think this is

763
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 4: a fascinating contrast in a way because of how leads

764
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 4: want to play quickly, but Villa are not going to

765
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 4: let them do that. Leads being at home, the onus

766
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 4: is on them to create chances, and so I think

767
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 4: that kind of plays into the Villa counterattacking mold a

768
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: little bit better. Villa did get an important win in

769
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 4: their last match, but they didn't look great doing it.

770
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 4: There wasn't a ton of chances created. It was kind

771
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 4: of though, we're going to win one zero with pretty

772
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 4: mediocre attacking numbers and not give you anything, which is

773
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 4: basically what happened. Villa were the deserving winners, but you know,

774
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 4: they didn't come away from that match thinking, oh, yes,

775
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 4: Villa have figured out they're attacking problems and leads. They

776
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 4: had a couple of bad results, but I'm not out

777
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 4: on them at all, but I just can't bet them

778
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 4: as a favorite here, So I'm.

779
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: Passing at beach with this. If if Leeds do get steemed,

780
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: would this be your first bet? On asked the Villa

781
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: of the season. It's got to be close.

782
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 6: I'll beck the Sindy Gate here. Here's a broader question,

783
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 6: who's the better manager? I don't know if I know

784
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 6: the answer to that question, but what I will say

785
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 6: is that aston Villa has done a fantastic job at

786
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 6: stopping teams from not only getting inside their penalty box,

787
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 6: but progressing the ball up the field. I mean their

788
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 6: top six in all of those categories. I mean defensively,

789
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 6: they're thirteenth in non penalty expected goals, but they're not

790
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 6: along a lot of shots their top eight, their top

791
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 6: ten and big scoring chances allowed.

792
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: And this match last season, I think it.

793
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 6: Was March's second or third in charge. I mean aston

794
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 6: Villa beat them pretty handily. I mean Lee's created point

795
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 6: two expected goals, they only like ten touches in their

796
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 6: penalty area. Like it was a very dominant What Steven

797
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 6: Gyard is looking for from his aston Villa type team

798
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 6: and can they.

799
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 2: Repeat that here?

800
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 6: I'm not so sure, but I need a better number,

801
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 6: like I cannot bet Villa Drono bet at like a

802
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 6: short plus money, like I need them plus half a

803
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 6: goal AD minus one thirty or better right now, because

804
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 6: the reality is that as the last four matches they

805
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 6: haven't created over one expected goal like the last one

806
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 6: they did it was against the Palace and that was

807
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 6: a lot of that had to do with garbage times.

808
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 6: So yeah, I cannot back this aston Ville attack. So

809
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 6: that's why I need plus half a goal because if

810
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 6: the reality is is I need the protection of them

811
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 6: getting a draw in the smash. But I do think

812
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 6: generally that leads is a tad over valued generally in

813
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 6: the market.

814
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to Monday night football.

815
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: This is a great one.

816
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: This is a.

817
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: Very important one for me.

818
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,959
Speaker 5: I bet Leicester to be least at Christmas at forty

819
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 5: to one before the season starts. And this is basically

820
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 5: the super Bowl. This is the playoff decider here.

821
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: Leicester City. This is the perfect money.

822
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 5: This is what you want, Like I wish it was

823
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 5: a little colder out because this is this is like

824
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 5: the perfect the Sun's kind of going down by the

825
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 5: middle of the second half of Leicester there mightus won

826
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 5: thirty four at home hosting Nottingham Forest plus three thirty three.

827
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: That draw heres three to one.

828
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 5: Both teams are at mess for different reasons, whereas Lester

829
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 5: is like a lame duck and feel stale. Noting a

830
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,439
Speaker 5: Forest are a mess because they don't know each other.

831
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 5: And then you look at the stats and the bears

832
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 5: out The Foxes are eighteenth and shots per ninety against nineteenth,

833
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 5: the big chances fourteenth in spectacles for like the defensive

834
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 5: and offensive metrics for Lesser are just absurdly bad for

835
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 5: a team that has been so solid for you know,

836
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 5: more than half a decade now you know, seven eight years,

837
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 5: and it's weird to see them at the bottom of

838
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 5: the table. But it's not surprising because we kind of

839
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 5: all knew that the bottom was going to fall out

840
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 5: on this team. And there's no way I would lay

841
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 5: minus one thirty four on this team no matter who

842
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 5: they were playing. They could be playing Scunthorpe and I

843
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 5: don't think I would be laying it BJ. I'm not

844
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 5: going to go bet Forrest. I'm just going to root

845
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 5: for Forest because of my future.

846
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 6: But I'm going to bet Forest, Yeah, do it plus

847
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 6: half of the pass on the board for me plus one.

848
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 5: When it gets to two fifty seven pm Easter on

849
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 5: Monday Southampton.

850
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 2: Match is the easiest pass on the board.

851
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 1: Do you guys need help?

852
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 2: I mean, what has Lester done to deserve to be

853
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 2: minus one thirty? I mean he said it, Michael.

854
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 6: I don't even offensively, like they've done a really good job.

855
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 6: Like the two things they've done really well offensively, they've

856
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 6: played through pressure well and they've progressed the ball at

857
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 6: the field really well. It's not surprising that they have Teelman's,

858
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,760
Speaker 6: they have James Madison like, they have good attacking players,

859
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 6: but they cannot do anything in the final third. I

860
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 6: mean they have seven point two expected goals in seven matches,

861
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 6: They've created just two big scoring chances, and they might

862
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 6: have maybe the worst goalkeeper in the Premier League has

863
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 6: ever seen in Danny Ward.

864
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 2: I mean it is shocking how bad he is. He

865
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: is at a minus ound.

866
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 6: Csyperbolic, but it's not minus and six point one post

867
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 6: shot expected goal differential and he's played seven matches like

868
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 6: he is almost allowing in a goal more than he

869
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 6: should in every single match. That is insanity how bad

870
00:36:57,800 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 6: he has been. And I mean this is still now

871
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 6: that lesser sold for Fauna, Like, this is still the

872
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 6: same defense that we saw last year that allowed over

873
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 6: one point six expected goals per match. Plus you saw

874
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 6: what Tottenham did to them on Saturday. They put on

875
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 6: just a counter attacking clinic from sitting deep and going forward.

876
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: Well, that's the same style that Nottingam Forest plays.

877
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 6: Not not trying to sit here and say that Nottingam

878
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 6: Forrest is gonna be able to do what Tottenham did.

879
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 6: But with that being said, the one team that I

880
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 6: believe benefited most from this break was Nottingam Forrest because

881
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 6: of all the new players that they had, they actually

882
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 6: had time to sit on their training ground and figure

883
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 6: something out rather than just saying, okay, we played Saturday,

884
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 6: all right, we got training on Monday. Ope, so we

885
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 6: got a game on Wednesday, so we got to prepare

886
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 6: for that one. Like, they actually have some time to

887
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 6: sit down and play as a team and figure out

888
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 6: how they're going to work in Steve Cooper's system. So

889
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 6: I mean, listen, they know all the numbers say that

890
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 6: they've been bad, like they've allowed the most expected goals,

891
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 6: like they're allowing a ton of shots. They've allowed nine

892
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 6: big scoring chances, like it's it's been bad. But the

893
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 6: one thing that I'm holding on to is that I

894
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 6: think Forrest is going to start working their way out

895
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 6: of the relegation zone because they do have talent, like

896
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 6: like I get it, like buying nineteen players, like half

897
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 6: of them fit the system, half of them don't. Like

898
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 6: ow and now and the and the K said, those

899
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 6: those two guys really fit the system because that's how

900
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 6: they played in their teams in the Bundesliga. Adding Jesse

901
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,280
Speaker 6: Lingard and other guys like that not so much fitting

902
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 6: fitting into a a three five two system. So I'm

903
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 6: taking the trees plus one fifteen plus half a goal.

904
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 6: I don't have lesser projective minus one or two. I'm

905
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 6: just I'm gonna fade lester.

906
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 2: I don't.

907
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 6: I don't really know what else to say other than

908
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 6: likely there's some value. There's some value in forests, there's

909
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 6: some value not in forest. It's a standalone Monday match

910
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 6: and I'm kind of looking forward to it.

911
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: No, I think it's like a fascinating one.

912
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: We're gonna learn a lot from this match.

913
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, and the reactions are gonna be great because like

914
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 5: if Forrest do pull it off, there's no way Brendon

915
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 5: Rogers is getting out of that building with the job.

916
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:56,959
Speaker 2: And well, the funny thing.

917
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 3: About that is I ran in a money issue.

918
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I read that it's money. Is should that they'd

919
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 2: be because they would have fired amazing board to pay

920
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:04,479
Speaker 2: it was just jobs same time.

921
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, so the Bran Rodgers might just sit there and

922
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 6: get to seem relegated, which is the other.

923
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 5: Thing, Like, this is what I'm saying, like, this is

924
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 5: a very strange situation with Lester. I'm not saying that

925
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 5: I foresaw it getting this strange. I made that bet

926
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,280
Speaker 5: before the season. I just thought, yeah, I could see.

927
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 2: And has gone in January, like that's happening no matter what.

928
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 2: He's probably going to new Castle in January.

929
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 5: The thing that was the strangest part and the one

930
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 5: that I was like, okay, was the cash for Schichel

931
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 5: thing like just like kind of like very quietly a

932
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 5: club legend goes to Nice all right. I mean, and

933
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 5: I get but your Schmichel's not like a world beating goalkeeper.

934
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 3: But it's just like the back of the drop off

935
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 3: is pretty big.

936
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and yeah you're going from Schmichel that.

937
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: I'll say it again for everybody out there.

938
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 6: Danny Ward might be in net for Wales at the

939
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 6: World Cup, or Wayne Hennison.

940
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 5: It'll people who's got his own issues, all right. So

941
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 5: that wraps up the Premier League for us. We'll start

942
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:59,280
Speaker 5: jaunting around Europe giving out some of our favorite bets

943
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 5: in the other Big five leagues.

944
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: But first a reminder.

945
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 5: Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three six five, the

946
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,839
Speaker 5: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action

947
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,760
Speaker 5: to get BET three six five exclusive sign up offer

948
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,240
Speaker 5: in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game,

949
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 5: get two hundred free. All right, let's talk Bundesliga, Anthony,

950
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 5: you can go first.

951
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to take another Dortmund under. How about those?

952
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 4: That's I think those are the only that's I win nowadays.

953
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 4: But dortmand under three against Call's attack has been inflated

954
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 4: by a couple of games with red card situations early

955
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 4: in the season. When you look across the board at

956
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 4: the entire year, though, it's been very underwhelming and I

957
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 4: think they've kind of struggled to replace the loss of

958
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 4: Anthony Modest and they have not And not to say

959
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:43,919
Speaker 4: that Modesta is some world beater, but he does play

960
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 4: for the other team now and Modest has not fit

961
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 4: in particularly well at Dortmund. So I think you're getting

962
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 4: kind of a of an interesting situation where both teams

963
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 4: have kind of lost their top striker and not successfully

964
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 4: been able to replace him. And these Dortmund defensive numbers

965
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 4: continue to be impressive. I mean, they dominated the match

966
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 4: against Shaka in the Revere derby, held Shaka to basically nothing,

967
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 4: but Denny themselves couldn't really create much of anything going

968
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 4: forward if the final actually was one point six to

969
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 4: point one, Dorman scoring late. So I'm impressed by the defense.

970
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 4: And the defense showed itself really well in the game

971
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 4: against City as well, with point nine expected goals. So

972
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 4: I think this is still an underrated defense going on

973
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 4: the road to Colm where it's going to be a

974
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 4: a difficult match for them to go get all three points.

975
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 4: I think colmme will represent defensively they played well defensively

976
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 4: this season point, but the attack is still so inflated

977
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:35,840
Speaker 4: by these red card games.

978
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 5: For me, it's a bet I don't want to do

979
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 5: at all because I hate both these teams, and I

980
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,800
Speaker 5: don't think I've ever won a bet on Bayer Leverkusen.

981
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 5: I don't think I've ever won a bet against Bayern Munich.

982
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 5: But I'm going to take Leverkusen on the money line

983
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 5: six and a half to one. It's simple, like, we

984
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 5: know that this Leverkusen team is better than what their

985
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 5: actual results are. The difference between their expected goals and

986
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 5: actual goal differences about four.

987
00:41:58,520 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 1: And a half goals.

988
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 5: Byron has had a very strange season to start. Maybe

989
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,360
Speaker 5: they life without Robert Lewinski isn't as simple as you'd imagine.

990
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 5: So I just think you're getting a good team at

991
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 5: a great number. So six and a half to one,

992
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,240
Speaker 5: it's gonna lose. I think Byron storms them, But whatever,

993
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 5: I'll play the number six plus six fifty m buyer

994
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 5: Lebracusa for me.

995
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 1: That's how you sell a bet. BJ What do you have.

996
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 6: Well on that topic, I cannot believe that there were

997
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 6: even rumors out there that Nogglesman might.

998
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: Get sacked for Tuchel.

999
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 6: I could not believe that when I heard it, because

1000
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 6: he would get snatched up in like an instant by

1001
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 6: any other club in the world.

1002
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 2: Let's go back to n Berlin.

1003
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 3: Is because who's the open job.

1004
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 6: I don't know what the open job is, but if

1005
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 6: there was one Anthony, they would snatch him up.

1006
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 2: Okay, that's the point. Maybe Liverpool after they lose the

1007
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,280
Speaker 2: brain exactly, Maybe Lester. No, I'm just kidding.

1008
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 6: Let's go back to Unyon Berlin like we did last week,

1009
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 6: because they did it again like that.

1010
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 2: No more like they had a good performance against Wolfsberg.

1011
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:55,320
Speaker 2: They're playing Frankfurt, who.

1012
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 6: Team I have as you go, everybody knows too listen

1013
00:42:57,960 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 6: to this podcast that I really do not like. I'm

1014
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 6: gonna go both team to score now at plus one ten.

1015
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 6: What's interesting about this line is that the books know

1016
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 6: that Unjan Berlin is drastically overperforming, like the first place

1017
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 6: team in the Bundesliga is over two to one against

1018
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:15,280
Speaker 6: an overperforming Frankfurt team, which I think the line's actually

1019
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 6: close to correct. But with that being said, I mean,

1020
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 6: let's reiterate what Unjan Berlin has done offensively. If you

1021
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 6: didn't listen to the podcast last week, fifteen goals off

1022
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 6: of five point seven expected, they've allowed four goals off

1023
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 6: only six point seven expected, So they're allowing under one

1024
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 6: expected goal per match, but forty shots from inside the

1025
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 6: pale of the area.

1026
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 2: It's turned less than Bundesliga.

1027
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 6: They have the third fewest progressive passes that the worst

1028
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 6: team in pass per defensive action in high turnovers, but

1029
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 6: they've completed the most processant in pal the area. This

1030
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:47,760
Speaker 6: is a three to five to two, just like Michael

1031
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 6: mentioned last week in a dark magic team, where it's

1032
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:51,919
Speaker 6: basically just get the once you get the ball back,

1033
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,439
Speaker 6: just fling it up to the strikers and let's hope

1034
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 6: we can win two on three. On the flip side

1035
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 6: of that, Frankfurt they've been overperforming offensively again. They have

1036
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 6: fourteen goals off of nine point seven expected three point

1037
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,240
Speaker 6: one of that came into matt a weird match against

1038
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 6: RB Leipzig, so essentially they've created six point six expected

1039
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 6: goals In their other six matches. They've scored five goals

1040
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 6: off of set pieces. And you want know who the

1041
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 6: best set piece defense is in the Bundesliga, That's right,

1042
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 6: is Ujan Berlin. They've they're allowing point zero five xt

1043
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 6: per set piece, so this line should not be plus

1044
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 6: money have both team to Scornell projected at minus one

1045
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 6: twenty five, so to be both team to Scornell plus

1046
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 6: one ten.

1047
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 3: I wonderaldo Becker?

1048
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 4: I was going to say it, Jordienty Fox are top

1049
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 4: five in all of Europe in finishing both on the

1050
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 4: same team.

1051
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 5: Pretty do you think there's anybody out there on the

1052
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 5: entire planet with the Shiraldo Becker Bundesliga Golden Boot ticket

1053
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 5: if you are, Yeah, had costs.

1054
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, please, we'll have you on the pod. You can

1055
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: have my job.

1056
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 5: We'll get yeah, all right, La League now EJU and

1057
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 5: I in the same game, so I'll just go right

1058
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 5: back to you.

1059
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I mean, how can we not fade

1060
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 6: Seville with Athletico? I mean this is simple, just I mean,

1061
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 6: Athletico is plus one fifty here, surprise they're not setting

1062
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 6: around plus one thirty plus one twenty in this match.

1063
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 6: I mean, Anthony mentioned it last week. This Sevilla defense

1064
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 6: is so so bad. We were texting back and forth

1065
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 6: at the end of the viral match via Al missed

1066
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 6: what like five chances Anthony towards the end just to

1067
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 6: win that match.

1068
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 2: It was brutal to watch.

1069
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 6: But Savilla has now allowed close has allowed one point

1070
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 6: eleven and a half expected.

1071
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 2: Goals in six matches.

1072
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 6: That is the most in Laaliga except for Lha, who

1073
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,919
Speaker 6: is way in dead last right now. But what's even

1074
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,359
Speaker 6: more concerning for Sevia defensively is that if you look

1075
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 6: at their ex sheep per shot from inside the penalty area,

1076
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 6: not the six yard box and not outside the box,

1077
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 6: they're at point two one. The average around Europe is

1078
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 6: around point one three point one four somewhere around there there.

1079
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 6: That is the worst mark in all of Europe. Point

1080
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 6: to one. When when you're allowing close to eight shots

1081
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 6: inside the penalty area per match like that is very

1082
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 6: very concerning, and I get it.

1083
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:56,800
Speaker 2: Athletico hasn't been back.

1084
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 6: Graat in Laaliga. They only have a plus point seven

1085
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 6: expected goal differential. But they looked good against Real Madrid,

1086
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 6: like Real Madrid. Yeah, they scored two goals off of

1087
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 6: six shots, like you know, it's what Real Madrid does.

1088
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 2: And I thought he come did create close to one

1089
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 2: expected goal on that match.

1090
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 6: So uh, this is a simple just projection value for me,

1091
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 6: Like I have f lety Co as a pretty decent

1092
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 6: you know, even money favorite here, So give me Diego

1093
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 6: Simeone Drono Bett at minus one thirty.

1094
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna take the money line on Letty plus

1095
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 5: one forty five.

1096
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 4: Anthony maybe joining I might, I might have been. Yes,

1097
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 4: I know, I know it's sickening. I mean this civideo,

1098
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:34,399
Speaker 4: this will be a clip is real.

1099
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 3: But I think my best bet here, Actually I don't think.

1100
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 2: I know.

1101
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 4: My best bet here is South of Ego minus one

1102
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 4: twenty five on the Drono bet line at.

1103
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 3: Home against Real Bettis.

1104
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:47,359
Speaker 4: And you look at the underline numbers and it kind

1105
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 4: of tells you the bilo so high nature of this matchup.

1106
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:53,800
Speaker 4: Real Bettis has somehow won five of their six matches,

1107
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 4: with the only loss coming to Real Madrid. H with

1108
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 4: the plus six goal difference, it's pretty hard to do

1109
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 4: your winning every game by one goal pretty much, and

1110
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 4: their expected goal difference is basically even eight point nine

1111
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 4: to four eight point two against whereas Celta Vigo has

1112
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 4: had a bit of a misrun of fortune. Some of

1113
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 4: it's driven by, uh, the defense is finishing really well

1114
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 4: against them. Real Madrid ran up a big number at

1115
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 4: Leti ran up a big number, but they actually played

1116
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 4: decently well in those games, uh, and kind of folded

1117
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:22,280
Speaker 4: late on some variants. So I've been encouraged by Vigo.

1118
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 4: I like them at home here on the Toronto Bett line.

1119
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 4: I think these two teams are closer than the market suggests,

1120
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 4: so I can get them at home.

1121
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 5: Nothing for me or Anthony in Italy this weekend, BJ,

1122
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 5: So what do you got through us in Syria?

1123
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:36,360
Speaker 6: A yeah, I like a little bit of relegation battle

1124
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 6: in Syria this week, and like Leche plus one five

1125
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,919
Speaker 6: at home against Kreminesse. These are two newly promoted teams

1126
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 6: squaring off early this season, which means we can go

1127
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 6: back to Saria Bay last season and we can see

1128
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 6: that Leche dominated both matches. The first one was the

1129
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 6: opening match of the season. Kremenesa won it three to nothing,

1130
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 6: but Lecha wan unexpected goals two to a one point five.

1131
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 6: The second match, let's one two one one unexpected gold

1132
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 6: one point eight to point seven. This krimin Essa team,

1133
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 6: I think it's safe to say at this point that them,

1134
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 6: along with Manza, are the two worst teams in Syria

1135
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 6: right now.

1136
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 2: I will say though krimin Essea has.

1137
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 6: Played a very brutal schedule to open up their newly

1138
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 6: promoted season. I mean the worst team they've played is

1139
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 6: to Swallow, who is a mid table clubs, so that

1140
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 6: should tell you how hard their schedule has been. But

1141
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 6: with that being said, they have allowed fifteen point three

1142
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 6: expected goals in seven matches. They've allowed one hundred and

1143
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 6: thirty two shots in seven matches, which is around nineteenth match.

1144
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 2: That's very, very concerning.

1145
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 6: Leche has played a difficult schedule as well, but what

1146
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 6: they have done is they have played essentially three what

1147
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:46,760
Speaker 6: I would consider relegation type teams in Salernitana and Poli

1148
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 6: and Manza.

1149
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 2: In those three matches they have.

1150
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 6: A plus one point three expected goal differential and they've

1151
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:52,520
Speaker 6: only allowed one point.

1152
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 2: Two expected goals.

1153
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 6: So I do like Leche a lot in this match.

1154
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 6: They were by far the better team in the second

1155
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 6: division last season. They had a plus point six expect

1156
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,319
Speaker 6: a goal differential per ninety while Crevin Essay was only

1157
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 6: at plus one point six. So I have them projected

1158
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 6: minus one twenty seven. So give me them at plus

1159
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 6: one o five to get all three points at home.

1160
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 2: League.

1161
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: Oh now, Anthony, you have a pick for us in France.

1162
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll tell you what we haven't. You know, we

1163
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 4: don't talk about Legan that much on this podcast.

1164
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 3: One of the most.

1165
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 4: Bizarre starts in all of Europe has been this Strasbourg start.

1166
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 4: I mean, we talked about that on our preview, probably

1167
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 4: mentioned them as a potential dark horse. They had really

1168
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,360
Speaker 4: good underlying numbers last year. They probably weren't going to

1169
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 4: match those numbers, but they probably also weren't going to

1170
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 4: win none of their first eight games in league un and.

1171
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 3: A lot of that's been some poor variants.

1172
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 4: Five draws, a couple of them very unlucky, a couple

1173
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 4: of them very late. I think you're getting a very

1174
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 4: good all in bi low home spot against beren who

1175
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 4: I continue to believe is overrated. So I like the

1176
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 4: Strasburg boys.

1177
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 3: Pick them plus one twenty at home here m BJ.

1178
00:49:55,880 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 6: I'm going with Auger draw, no bet at even money

1179
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 6: at home against Staud Debreswais who I spoke about in

1180
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 6: the last podcast. And they continue to just look very

1181
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 6: very below average. I mean, their last five matches, they're

1182
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 6: at one, they're at a two point five expected goals

1183
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 6: four and about eight point nine against Like they've been really,

1184
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 6: really bad. They've been struggling to find an identity of

1185
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 6: what type of formation they're gonna play. This past week,

1186
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 6: they went from essentially a four to three three. Then

1187
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:28,720
Speaker 6: they decided they want to play a four two three one.

1188
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 6: Then against PSG they were like, no, we're gonna play

1189
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 6: a three four three, And then now against against the

1190
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 6: Jocks they're like, no, we're gonna play three five two.

1191
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 6: Like it's just it's all over the map with this team.

1192
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,240
Speaker 6: They don't know what style they want to play. Augier

1193
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 6: does have the worst expected goal differential in France, but

1194
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 6: they've been had a pretty tough schedule.

1195
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 2: They had a really bad run where they had.

1196
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 6: To play Leon and Marseille and Wren and they just

1197
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 6: got their doors blown off. They got a pretty unfair

1198
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 6: result against the Orient in their last match, but this was

1199
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 6: a good team in the second division last season, had

1200
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 6: around a plus point six actually differential per ninety and

1201
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 6: I really just don't think they should the slight underdogs

1202
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 6: at home against the started breast swat team that I

1203
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 6: see as near the bottom five and league on.

1204
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 2: So give me Augier. John o'bett had even money.

1205
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:18,240
Speaker 5: All right, now on to our three like underdog moneyline parlay. Honestly,

1206
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 5: it feels like we haven't done a show for months

1207
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:22,839
Speaker 5: because of the weird schedule. And then the international breaks.

1208
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 5: I can't even tell you how close we were last time,

1209
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 5: but we were definitely very close. BJ, who's your favorite underdog?

1210
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 2: I think we got blank last time.

1211
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:32,720
Speaker 3: That was our first week of the year. We got blink.

1212
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 3: Yeah it was actually yeah, I.

1213
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 6: Think I ended up on underdogs were what plus three

1214
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,280
Speaker 6: I think on the air plus three units.

1215
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 3: So more than that, I think I have to put

1216
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:42,359
Speaker 3: it up.

1217
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's somewhere round well, it's something like that. Yeah, Anthony,

1218
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:47,920
Speaker 6: you just mentioned it. How about the strassboard two to

1219
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 6: one against Ren? I mean, what you know, I agree

1220
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 6: with everything Anthony said, Like this team has just run

1221
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 6: horribly to start this season, like they're gonna bounce back

1222
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 6: at some point.

1223
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 5: You know.

1224
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 2: The biggest thing I held on too.

1225
00:51:58,080 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 6: When we were doing our preview pod was they did

1226
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 6: lose anybody, Like they kept their same corps guys together.

1227
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 6: So I'm betting that this team was going to turn

1228
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:07,839
Speaker 6: around in They played Ren towards the end of last

1229
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 6: season and they just completely dominated him, won two point

1230
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 6: six to point nine and actually won the match to

1231
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,239
Speaker 6: one at home. So a two to one for a

1232
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 6: team that hasn't won a match. But I think it's

1233
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 6: a good Bilow spot. I agree with Anthony and gimme

1234
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 6: Strasbourg two to one.

1235
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:24,799
Speaker 5: For me, it's oh Wolves plus three twenty They're take

1236
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 5: it on west Ham. This is going to be an

1237
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 5: ugly one standalone game on Saturday at twelve thirty pm.

1238
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 5: Will not be a good advert for the Premier League.

1239
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 5: Both of these teams have scored just three goals in

1240
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 5: their seven matches, but they're both due for a little

1241
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 5: offensive regression. Both teams feature what you'd call like you know,

1242
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 5: top ten defenses in the Premier League as well, so

1243
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,759
Speaker 5: I think this game turns into a rock fight. In

1244
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 5: those kind of situations, I love the underdog and it

1245
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 5: simply just comes down to the fact that west Ham

1246
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 5: should be odds on against any team at or near

1247
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 5: Wolves level. So plus three twenty to go against west

1248
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 5: Ham is well worth it. So I'll take Wolverhampton to

1249
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 5: get the job done against David Moyes and west Ham.

1250
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:07,120
Speaker 4: Game of the weekend in Italy inter Milan against Roma,

1251
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:09,839
Speaker 4: the battle of the underperformers to begin the season. Don't

1252
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 4: have a play on the side necessarily, but I do

1253
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 4: not dislike a shot on Roma, who's created fifteen expected goals.

1254
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 4: If they continue to create those levels, they will have

1255
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 4: an outburst kind of game. And there's some pretty concerning

1256
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 4: indicators with Samir Handanovic and the goal for Inter. He's

1257
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 4: had a really bad start to the season. That's why

1258
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 4: Inter of underperform so much. I think it's very interesting

1259
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 4: this matchup in general because both teams underperform so much.

1260
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 4: But I'm going to take a shot on the underdog

1261
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 4: for similar reasons that Michael said. I think that either

1262
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:39,919
Speaker 4: team could go off at any point. In that case,

1263
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 4: I'll take the chance on the dog.

1264
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: If you proaratly like Strasbourg, Roma and Wolverhampton together three

1265
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 1: legs forty four to one would be your payout. And

1266
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: now on too our favorite bets in the Premier League

1267
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 1: for the upcoming match week, BJ Let's start with you.

1268
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 6: Chrystal Palace plus half a goal plus one oh five

1269
00:53:57,440 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 6: at home against Chelsea. If you look at all of

1270
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 6: Crystal Palace's defensive numbers, they are not anywhere near where

1271
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 6: they were in the Premier leagu last season. They haven't

1272
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 6: held an opponent under one expected goal, but they have

1273
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 6: played a tough schedule. They played three Big six sides

1274
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 6: and this is another match against a Big Six side

1275
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 6: where who are coming to sell Hurst Park. Since the

1276
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 6: start a last season, Crystal Palace has a plus one

1277
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 6: point one expect a goal differential against the Big Six

1278
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 6: at home. That's incredibly impressive. Chelsea does have a new

1279
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 6: manager and Grand Potter who we all truly believe in,

1280
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 6: but this is only a second match in charge, so

1281
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 6: it's going to take some time for him to get

1282
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 6: his system together. This is a good spot for a

1283
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,840
Speaker 6: Crystal Palace team that has ran pretty poorly against a

1284
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 6: tough schedule. So give me the Eagles plus half a

1285
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 6: goal at plus one oh five at home.

1286
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 5: The game of the weekend North London Derby between Arsenal

1287
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 5: and Tottenham. I like Spurs plus two to fifty is

1288
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 5: my favorite bet. I think all of us on this

1289
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 5: podcast can agree and everyone who will watch the game.

1290
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 1: No, we'll agree.

1291
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 5: These two teams the margins of Razors thin Arsenals at home,

1292
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 5: but Spurs in a matchup with where the margins are

1293
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:02,359
Speaker 5: just so so thin. The stylistic matchup should benefit Tottenham

1294
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 5: and that puts me on them plus two fifty.

1295
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 3: Sorry, BJ I certainly hope you're right.

1296
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 4: I'm on under two and a half in the Bournemouth

1297
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 4: Brentford game, the two of the top five overperforming.

1298
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:14,320
Speaker 3: Attacks in the entire league.

1299
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 4: If you look at goals minus expected goals, Manchester City, Arsenal,

1300
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 4: Tottenham in the top five doesn't shock you given the

1301
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 4: quality of attackers in those groups. Brentford and Bournemouth should

1302
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 4: shock you. Both these attacks have run extremely well to

1303
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 4: this point in the season. Meanwhile, Bournemouth is twentieth and

1304
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 4: expected goals created. They've been pretty bad offensively and they've

1305
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 4: just kind of clawed some goals out of nothing. Meanwhile,

1306
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 4: at the other end of the pitch, both teams in

1307
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 4: the bottom three in underperforming defensively as well. Neither defense

1308
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 4: is quite as bad as the numbers have looked thus far.

1309
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 4: Hold your nose, but under two and a half in

1310
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 4: this matchup that should be pretty low scoring with Brentford

1311
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 4: on the road not nearly as strong offensively.

1312
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,320
Speaker 5: And then I'll do it for another episode of Wonder

1313
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 5: Goal for Anthony the Bundo for b J Cunningham. I'm

1314
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 5: Michael Leebuff. Once again we are minding you to check

1315
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 5: out our sponsor BET three six five, the world's favorite

1316
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 5: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to get

1317
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 5: Bet three six fives exclusive sign up offer in New

1318
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 5: Jersey and Colorado.

1319
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 1: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred free.

1320
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 5: We will see you guys on the other side of

1321
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:14,320
Speaker 5: the weekend on Monday morning when we preview the upcoming

1322
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 5: Champions League tilts.

1323
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 1: Until then, Bessela