1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast your UFC Fight Night 3 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: two o five betting preview Brendan Glasheen joined by the 4 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 2: usual suspects. Action Network senior writer Sean Zarello, former professional 5 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 2: MMA fighter, and our MMA analyst Billy Ward. UFC Fight 6 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 2: Night two o five at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 7 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 2: We've got twelve fights on the card, five on the 8 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: main card, seven prelims. We'll get the guys picks on 9 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 2: the fight of the night. We'll get to that their 10 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 2: fight of the night. There picks for it, underdog, underdog plays, 11 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: favorite props, and a look at the daily fantasy angles 12 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: from Billy. Also best bets, and we'll also get to 13 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 2: the main event. I want to remind all of you, though 14 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: tuning in, the Action Network is hosting a pre NFL 15 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 2: Draft happy hour at Circus Stadium Swim in downtown Las 16 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 2: Vegas next Wednesday, April twenty seventh. We have an open bar, 17 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 2: surprise guests, and betting tips from some of your favorite 18 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 2: Action Network pros. The event is twenty one plus. It 19 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 2: is totally free, but does require an RSVP. So you're 20 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 2: in Vegas next week, check out the link in the 21 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: episode link description to RSVP, So again in the description 22 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 2: where you get your podcasts, there's a link there in RSVP. 23 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: Looking forward to that NFL draft next week, Big time 24 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 2: stuff coming in Las Vegas, where we again turn our 25 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: attention to UFC Fight Night two five, the main event, 26 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: former women's strawweight champion Jessica Andreid thirteen and seven in 27 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: UFC taking on Amanda Laimos five and one in UFC 28 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 2: eleven to one and one overall. How do we feel 29 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: about this one, Sean Sorello? How do we attack this 30 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 2: main event from a betting standpoint? 31 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, Billy and I are gonna have some disagreement here, 32 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 3: which is great and which is healthy. I'm curious to 33 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,679 Speaker 3: hear his points. I know he's gonna talk about the 34 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 3: fact that Andrage is going back down to straw eight, 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 3: and that is his primer concern, which I completely agree with. 36 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 3: Anytime you're a bit older and cutting weight down to 37 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 3: a previous weight class, going back down and weight you 38 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 3: may be a little bit slower, sucked out speed's gonna 39 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 3: be deficient and potentially maybe more vulnerable to knockout. But 40 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 3: I don't really know how much equity you give Lemos 41 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 3: to get her up to that plus one to eighty number, 42 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 3: because basically everywhere else in this fight, both from a 43 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 3: stylistic matchup, but also from physique things we've seen in 44 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 3: the past in Tangibles. I give everything else pretty much 45 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 3: to onrage. Lemos is basically a five to seven minute fighter, 46 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 3: and then her output tends to fall off. This is 47 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 3: her first main event Onroja, has been in several main 48 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 3: events strength is schedule. 49 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 4: Lemos is making a. 50 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 3: Huge step up in competition here, coming off of a 51 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 3: very close fight with Angela Hill, but majority media scorecards 52 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,959 Speaker 3: fan scorecards actually thought Hill won that fight. I disagreed live, 53 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 3: I disagreed on rewatch. I scored rounds one to three 54 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: for Lemos, But the fact remains the very very narrow 55 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 3: margins in that fight, and it was a fifteen minute fight. 56 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 3: Now she has to extend out to twenty five, where 57 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 3: andraj is gonna have a significant advantage grappling upside all 58 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 3: in Androja's favor. Lemos has gotten taken down in the pass. 59 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 3: Put on her back, you can keep her there. So 60 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 3: taking a significant step up in competition, taking a big 61 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 3: step up not only in terms of time fighting in 62 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 3: the cage potentially going from fifteen to twenty five minutes. 63 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 3: But against the caliber opponent. There's a lot of intangible 64 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 3: things pointing to Andraje and just stylistically, Lemos isn't great 65 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 3: at fighting moving backwards. Androja is going to pressure her, 66 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 3: push her back. Lemos doesn't really CounterPunch. She can get 67 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 3: stuck up against the cage where she can eventually get 68 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 3: pulled to the mat and grappled. I think andrash can 69 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 3: submit her. I think she can control around the mat 70 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 3: for extended periods. And on the feat, She's going to 71 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 3: put in the type of attritional work that is really 72 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 3: going to trouble Lemos down the stretch as well. She's 73 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: going to hit the BODI repeatedly. Got to get in 74 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 3: her face and not give her the type of kickboxing 75 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 3: range fight that she wants. So really, in my mind, 76 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 3: the Lemo seeds to knock her out in the first 77 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 3: ten to twelve minutes. Otherwise I see Andrage just completely 78 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 3: drowning her down the stretch. Certainly get the credence to 79 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,799 Speaker 3: Lemos knocking her out early. She's a very dangerous striker, 80 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 3: but Andraja's done well at defending head strikes in the 81 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 3: past much better head movement that she's had previously. So 82 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 3: unless Lemos lands one of those front kicks and happens 83 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 3: to catcher like with Angela Hill twice, I don't really 84 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 3: see her winning this fight winning minutes for extended stretches. 85 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 3: I think she's pretty much finished her bust. But I'm 86 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 3: curious that Billy see something perhaps in the matchup other 87 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 3: than the weightcut that is lending him to taking Lemosh 88 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 3: to this fight. 89 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, the weight clut is definitely the biggest factor. The 90 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 5: comparison I made was the fight we had between Dan 91 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 5: Hooker and Arnold Allen a few weeks ago, where Hooker 92 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 5: was around the same age and cutting town, but ten 93 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 5: pounds for female fighters from one twinty five to one 94 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 5: to fifteen as a proportion of their weight, that's even 95 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 5: more significant. You know, a guy going from you know, 96 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 5: one nye twenty five to one eighty five if you 97 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 5: did a catch right or something that's really not that 98 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 5: big of a percent, one twenty five to one fifteen 99 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 5: is pretty significant. So that's where I think I give 100 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 5: Limos a little bit of an edge down the stretch 101 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 5: in the fight, because that can really drain on you 102 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 5: as it goes out. 103 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:13,679 Speaker 6: But besides that, it really is just the power. 104 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 5: She's got almost half of a knockdown per round in 105 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 5: the UFC with a five round fight. 106 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 6: She's also the. 107 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 5: Bigger in terms of length fighter than Androd. So when 108 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 5: we've got that kind of power advantage, that kind of 109 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 5: length advantage, and I think she could have a little 110 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 5: bit of strength and you know, freshness for not having 111 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 5: the weight cut be a significant for her. That's enough 112 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 5: for me that I'm willing to take it at one 113 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 5: eighty five. I'd bet it down to about one sixty 114 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 5: or so and then sprinkle a little bit on her 115 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 5: knockout props, just because it is twenty five minutes of 116 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 5: that and that's most of her wind condition. 117 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 3: I want to mention I do like the fight ten 118 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 3: inside the distance as well. I projected that around minus 119 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 3: two to five, So if you can get like a 120 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 3: minus one ninety, I think it actually be okay playing that. 121 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,719 Speaker 3: I didn't play it myself. I played the onundrogs money line. 122 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 3: The one other factor which I found interesting. Normally, when 123 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 3: you have this fighter going down and wait, like the 124 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 3: Allen fight from the older fighter is going down and wait, 125 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 3: and that's where it's scary, and Drag is actually four 126 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 3: years younger here, so she's she's had much more of 127 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 3: a significant career at a younger age than Leamo Shas, 128 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 3: which I actually find interesting. I would have thought going 129 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 3: in that Lemos was the younger fighter. I didn't realize 130 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 3: she was four years older. 131 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's always tricky with those Are we counting years 132 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 5: or mileage? 133 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 6: You know what I mean? 134 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 5: Like, are we trying to worry about damage and time 135 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,559 Speaker 5: in the sport or actual chronological age? 136 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 4: So she took got a significant layoff too. 137 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 3: I believe she took a two and a half year laoffs, 138 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 3: so it's even less mileage than her age would suggest. 139 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 5: And roughly half the number of fights. So there's an 140 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 5: angle there. I don't exactly know where the edge is, 141 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 5: but it's always interesting to. 142 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 2: Be well, you both disagreed, but it sounded very civil 143 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 2: the way you made your cases in that they but look, 144 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 2: I mean seeing, it's seeing that each of you are 145 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 2: on a different side here at the main event. It's 146 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 2: always a nice reminder to shop those lines because you 147 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 2: can get some movement here before the fight begins. And 148 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 2: you know, overall, you both made good points looking at 149 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 2: you know grappling edges, you know onroage with the takedown 150 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:02,799 Speaker 2: average but laymost the knockdown averages, significant strikes. 151 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 7: They seem very similar, So should be good, should be. 152 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 4: A good banger of a fight. I love this fight. 153 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's good. I mean, I think it's good that 154 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 7: we have a you know, it's relatively even. 155 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 2: But as Billy's got, Billy's taken the value here, he's 156 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 2: into it, so looking forward to it. 157 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 7: Let's go to Billy. We'll start with you on this 158 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 7: one here. 159 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 2: Let's go to your your favorite underdog, since you're into 160 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 2: a dog for the main event. 161 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 7: Who's your dog? Just your favorite dog on the car? 162 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, and forgiving me ahead of time on the name. 163 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 5: But I'm looking at a Key Lang versus Cameron Else 164 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 5: that both guys are winless in the UFC. 165 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 6: Else lost his only fight. A has lost two fights 166 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 6: so far in the UFC. 167 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 5: But just the level of competition we see from these 168 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 5: Chinese prospects is it's questionable at best. Like it's really 169 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 5: hard to say that he has a quality win on 170 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 5: there and for Else to come in it, I see 171 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 5: as high as plus one ninety eight on FanDuel. I 172 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 5: don't really understand why he's a underdog here. Neither guy 173 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 5: has proving it up to us in the UFC, else 174 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 5: has a better strength to schedule. 175 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 6: Outside of the UFC. 176 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 5: He actually submitted Patty Pemblet, I think for Cage Warriors 177 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 5: or some other local UK promotion, so he's just got 178 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 5: a better resume behind him. 179 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 6: I think he's definitely got a huge grappling advantage. 180 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 5: A lot of these Chinese fighters we don't really see 181 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 5: much grappling, much submission ability, and Elise has a ton 182 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 5: of submission wins on his record. So at almost two 183 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 5: to one, I'm taking Cameron Ellis. 184 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 7: But she's de rollo favorite dog on the card. 185 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with Billy on Cameron Elis. I have a 186 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 3: quarterton on his money line, and actually his preferred odds 187 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 3: to win at the distance closer to plus three hundred. 188 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 3: I think I don't know if he's ever won a 189 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 3: fight by decision, so definitely needs to win that first 190 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 3: seven to ten minutes for me, like Els as well. 191 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 4: My favorite dog. 192 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 3: We're gonna go with the other fight featured fight female 193 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 3: fight on this card, Montana de la Rossa against Macy Barber. 194 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 3: If Barber hadn't won her last fight, which he did 195 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 3: not win against Miranda Maverick. You look at every scorecard, 196 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 3: media scorecard out there. 197 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 4: Just watch the fight. She didn't win that fight. 198 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 3: One of the most shocking decisions I've ever seen. I 199 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 3: don't know if the line would be where it is 200 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: for this matchup. Getting a pretty good value on d 201 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 3: La Rossi here plus one sixty. I like it quite 202 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 3: a bit at that number. Probably that bet it down 203 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 3: a plus one fifty. Barbara can be a slow starter. 204 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 3: She gives up minutes early, doesn't have a ton of 205 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 3: urgency early in her fights. She tends to build as 206 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 3: the fights go, which will lend well to her if 207 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 3: she ever gets into a main event and a twenty 208 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 3: five minute fight. 209 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 4: But in a fifteen minute fight, you're gonna. 210 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 3: Tell me she's gonna lose round one just by not 211 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 3: being active at a high clip. That is definitely concerning. 212 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 3: I think Montana Dela Rosa can actually be competitive on 213 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 3: the feed here with volume, doesn't hit nearly as hard. 214 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 3: Barbara can definitely land the more damaging strikes. But it's 215 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 3: the grappling upside for me with Dela Rosa. When you 216 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 3: get Barbara down, she tends to play guard. She isn't 217 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 3: very aggressive at getting off of her back. She even 218 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 3: when she gets the takedown, she can actually get reversed 219 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 3: put in bad positions, and she tends to give her 220 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 3: back up a lot as well. So I could see 221 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 3: Dela Rossa putting on her body triangle, controlling her first 222 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 3: standard periods, potentially even finishing over the choke. 223 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,439 Speaker 4: So I think Barbara. 224 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 3: Has just as many ways to win here as as 225 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 3: Dela Rosa does, or I should say the other way around. 226 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 4: But I see this fight. 227 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 3: On papers closer to a coin flip projection wise, Obviously 228 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 3: I make Barbera the favorite, but yeah, Dala Rosa I 229 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 3: think is a very solid underdog played this week. 230 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm with that one. US just a throw on. 231 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 5: Barbara lost Roxanne motor Ferry in twenty twenty, which is 232 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 5: like borderline unforgivable. 233 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 6: At this point, you shouldn't lose to you shouldn't. 234 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 4: Lose out a little bit in that fight. So I 235 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 4: think I think that something I remember, But. 236 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 3: I mean it's it's an issue where she just gets 237 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 3: on bottom and doesn't do anything. She's she's content to 238 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 3: pally guard. And if you're gonna do that and not 239 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 3: try to get up, You're gonna lose her. 240 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 4: Ounds On to. 241 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 2: Billion Shawn's Fight of the Night for UFC Fight Night 242 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,839 Speaker 2: two o five in Las Vegas. 243 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 7: At UFC Pecks, they. 244 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 2: Are eyeing Mark Andre Barrio versus Jordan Wright. You got 245 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,959 Speaker 2: Barrio the Canadian taking on Jordan Wright, who's from the 246 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 2: State's billy. 247 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 7: Why does this fight stand out to you? And what's 248 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 7: the play? 249 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, this one's just definitely gonna be a stand up banger. 250 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 5: Neither I really has a ton of interest in takedowns. 251 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 5: Favorite stat to that regard is Jordan Wright in particular 252 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 5: has twice as money knockdowns as takedowns even attempted in 253 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 5: the UFC. So that shows you what kind of fight 254 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 5: is going to be. You know, neither both guys are 255 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 5: willing to come forward. Both guys are willing to trade 256 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 5: punches and potentially get knocked out. So with that, you know, 257 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 5: any time you have fights like that, it should really 258 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 5: be close to a pick them. 259 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 6: Both guys are swinging these are this one to eighty five? Correct? 260 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 5: No, they moved up to one ninety Oh yeah, catch wait, catchwaight, 261 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 5: which honestly. 262 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 6: Helps the knockout ready even more. 263 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 5: But when you have two guys, either one of them 264 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 5: can knock each other out, I don't really see one 265 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 5: guy as a significant favorite or underdog. 266 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 6: So I'm betting Jordan Wright by knockout. 267 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 5: He's as high as plus four hundred about Rivers right now, 268 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,199 Speaker 5: I'm pretty confident one of these guys is going to 269 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 5: get knock out. When you're getting four TODs on one 270 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 5: versus the other, that's too good to pass up. 271 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't disagree. I don't disagree at all. 272 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 3: You know, if you had made this fight three months ago, 273 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,559 Speaker 3: I do think Barrio would have been closer to minus 274 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 3: four hundred because until he thought cheaty in Jakue Or 275 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 3: it wasn't cheaty Injewey, it was for getting lass. But 276 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 3: he got knocked out in on the first punch behind 277 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 3: the ear, went immediately down. 278 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 4: Follow off shots put him away. 279 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 3: But that was two months ago, and I don't love 280 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 3: a guy coming back on a short notice fight short 281 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 3: layoff after a bad knockout. It's just it's very concerning 282 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 3: for durability. But if I hadn't seen that fight, I 283 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 3: have a tough time seeing right winning this fight because 284 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 3: Barrio just looks so durable before that, and Right really 285 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 3: isn't a minute winner, very much a glass cannon. He's 286 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 3: either going to put you away early or he's going 287 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,839 Speaker 3: to fade and get knocked out himself. I actually love 288 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 3: this fight to end inside the distance here. I thought 289 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 3: the number was a little bit low, projected closer to 290 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 3: seventy percent, around minus two thirty. I'd bet this at 291 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 3: minus one ninety, would bet at minus two hundred. There's 292 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 3: even some under two and a half rounds it there 293 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 3: at minus one fifty minus one sixty. I think that's 294 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 3: okay too. But this is a violent spot. I'm expecting 295 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 3: a very violent fight, and if Right doesn't put Barrio 296 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 3: away early, I'm expecting Barrio to put him away late. 297 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 2: So Sean, the fact that this is now three you said, 298 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 2: if this was three months ago, you think this would 299 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 2: be the line, just the money line would be, it 300 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:08,959 Speaker 2: would be closer. 301 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 4: I'd no. 302 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 3: I think if it was three months ago, I actually 303 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 3: think Barrio would be double his price now. I think 304 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 3: he'd be closer to minus three fifty or minus four hundred. 305 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 3: I just don't see. He is a ton of volume, 306 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 3: and he builds his the fight goes. We're right, just 307 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 3: kind of rushes at you, and he'll throw one or 308 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 3: two big shots and then we'll to evade with his 309 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 3: karate style. So I see Barrio as the much more 310 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 3: convincing minute winner here over the course of fifteen minutes. 311 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 3: I don't really see right winning minutes unless he lands 312 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 3: a knockdown, which is why I think Barrio is pretty 313 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 3: much this side unless he gets knocked out. But given 314 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:40,719 Speaker 3: the fact that he has knocked out two months ago, 315 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 3: I have pretty significant concerns. 316 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 2: Okay, still a lot to get to here on the 317 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 2: Action Network podcast or UFC Fight Night two h five 318 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: betting preview. Now for a word from our friends at him. 319 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: When it comes to sports betting, there's no shortage of 320 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 2: problems to talk about, but there's definitely one problem. Guys 321 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 2: never want to discuss the directile dysfunction ed impact about 322 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: thirty million American men thirty million, and still most guys 323 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 2: would rather make bullshit excuses or just ignore the issue 324 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 2: instead of turning to experts for solution. You listen to 325 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 2: this show because you're looking for good advice, right, Well, 326 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 2: here's some check out hymns and discover a pillworth celebrating 327 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 2: because thanks to science, ed can be optional. Their website 328 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 2: for hymns dot com is a great resource for their 329 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 2: lost skincare and ED solutions for men. They connect you 330 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 2: with licensed medical providers who can provide FDA approved ED 331 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: treatments entirely online. These are the same medications you'd get 332 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: from your doctor, but with no appointments, no face to 333 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 2: face visits, and no codepase. You just answer a few 334 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 2: questions and products are shipped directly to you. Try HYMNS 335 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 2: today by starting with a free online visit go to 336 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 2: four hymns dot com slash Action Network. That's f O 337 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 2: r hi ms dot com slash Action Network. Prescription products 338 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will 339 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 2: determine if a prescription is appropriate. This would cost hundreds 340 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 2: if you went in person to the doctor's office or 341 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 2: pharmacy restrictions apply. See website for full details and safety information. 342 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 2: And remember that's for Him's dot com slash Action Network. 343 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 7: Let's get back to the show, gentlemen. 344 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: We have a couple more segments to go here in 345 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 2: our at UFC betting preview UFC Fight Night two five, 346 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 2: Brendan Glassheen Schanzarello, Billy Ward, turning our attention to our 347 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: favorite prop bets, Jonzrella, what are you looking at. 348 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 7: In the prop market for a fight night here? 349 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, we just talked fight of the night. 350 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 3: If I actually had to bet on a fight to 351 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 3: win fight of the night, it would probably be groovy. 352 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 3: Landovnada against Charles Verdaine. This is a certified banger. I 353 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 3: don't know how long it'll go. I feel like this 354 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 3: is gonna be a fifteen minute war, but I wouldn't 355 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 3: be a surprised if either guy got knocked out. But 356 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 3: I do give more decision equity to Linovnada. I projected 357 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 3: his decision line closer to plus one ninety. You can 358 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 3: get it around plus t twenty five. I think this 359 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 3: striking could be relatively competitive. Jordane the bigger hitter, a 360 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 3: bit more dynamic, but Vanada's movement is excellent. He's great 361 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 3: since moving down to one forty five, good at darting 362 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 3: around the cage, kind of avoiding strikes, playing mat at or. 363 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 3: He's not going to stand in front of Jorday and 364 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 3: give Jordain the type of fight he wants, and I 365 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 3: think he can mix in the takedowns too. He is 366 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 3: all the grappling upside in this fight. Former D one wrestler, 367 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 3: he dropped out after a year to become a professional fighter, 368 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 3: but he does come from a wrestling background, and I 369 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 3: expect him to land a few takedowns here, potentially to 370 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 3: shoot takedowns at a higher clip than he normally does. 371 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 3: Doesn't normally normally at tept more than one or two 372 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 3: takedowns in a fight, but I think he knows the 373 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 3: path to victory here is probably with his grapplings, so 374 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 3: I expect him to make this a dirty fight. 375 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 4: Hire Jordaan out. 376 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 3: We've seen jordaanine fade Layton fights and eventually pull out 377 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 3: a twenty eight decisions, So give me Van decision of 378 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 3: plus two twenty five favorite prop Billy. 379 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at the Mike Jackson versus and Barry fight. 380 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 5: I'm actually gonna come back to this one later. I 381 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 5: love this fight so much, guys. So, for those that 382 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 5: don't know, back in about twenty sixteen, pro wrestler Seeampunk 383 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 5: decided he wanted to join the UFC. In the UFC 384 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 5: goes on this camp paying to find him opponent, clearly 385 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 5: with the intention of getting him at least something reasonable. 386 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 5: Give him reasonable chance to win. So they find this guy, 387 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 5: Mike Jackson. I think he's like a photographer or something, 388 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 5: and they have him fight Mickey gall in the UFC. 389 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 5: It's Mike Jackson's pro debut. This is to Mickey gall 390 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 5: On forty five seconds. Goal gets the Punk fight. We 391 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 5: move on, but two years later Punk wants to do 392 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 5: it again. They let Jackson fight Punk. Jackson beats him 393 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 5: pretty badly. It ends up being declared a no contest 394 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 5: because I think a drug test issue. 395 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 6: I don't know. 396 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 5: So here we are four ish years later, and for 397 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 5: some reason, Mike Jackson and only filling out his contract 398 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 5: with the USC, but he has absolutely no business being here. 399 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 5: Guys like this is not a fighter who's remotely UFC caliber. 400 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 5: His only official win in his life was a split 401 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 5: decision amateur win. If I were to come out of 402 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 5: retirement forty ish pounds overweight without having trained in five years, 403 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 5: I'd be a significant favorite over Mike Jackson right now, 404 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 5: Zerill would probably be like plus one fifty, like it worse. 405 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 5: And I don't think you've ever done any you know, 406 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 5: competitive martial arts. 407 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 4: I have size on him, that's it. 408 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 6: Yep. 409 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, So but what I'm looking at and I was 410 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 5: surprised that the line of this buried by mission is 411 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 5: plus five point fifty and a lot of time, with 412 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 5: these horrible mismatch fights, it's a lot easier to just 413 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,439 Speaker 5: get positioned on a guy and tap them out than 414 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 5: it is to keep swinging and heading and hope the 415 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 5: rest going to stop it. 416 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 6: And as they're gonna jump in early, is he gonna 417 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 6: let him go? You know? 418 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 5: The path the least resistance for Barry is just take 419 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 5: him down in some min him. The guy has absolutely 420 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 5: no grappling. If you stand in trade punches, you might 421 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 5: get unlucky and get clipped with one. If I'm on 422 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 5: your back choking you out, You're not gonna knock me out. 423 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 5: So five point fifty the mission line for Barry seems 424 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 5: awfully long. That's over at FanDuel and yeah, that's where 425 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 5: I'm looking for that one. But we'll come back for 426 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 5: best bets. 427 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 4: I'm convinced I'm betting that too, Billy. 428 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 2: I think anytime now going forward, for any one of 429 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 2: your picks, you should reference something. 430 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 7: To you like like you just did. Like it as 431 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 7: a way for folks to relate. 432 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 2: See if this was me and I gained forty pounds 433 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 2: at your five to eleven frame. 434 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 4: This is what would happen. 435 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 2: So any any time you can provide an example of 436 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 2: what's happened to you in your in your professional career 437 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,120 Speaker 2: to give people an opportunity to relate that that's that's good. 438 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 5: This is absolutely the only comparably sized UFC fighter that 439 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 5: I would not be like plus ten thousand against at 440 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,239 Speaker 5: this point in my life. But there is one and 441 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 5: it's and it's Mike Jackson. 442 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 2: All right, that's great perspective for sure, Billy. We're gonna 443 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 2: go right back to you here because what like we 444 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 2: want to what we like to do excuse me on 445 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 2: this on this podcast and we have the UFC Betting 446 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 2: Previews is we do like to give a DFS breakdown 447 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 2: for those of you that like to get involved in 448 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 2: the daily Fantasy side. When you open up a contest, 449 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 2: say for example, on DraftKings, there are twelve fights, one 450 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 2: of them is canceled, so keep that in mind when 451 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 2: you go about setting your lineups. You should have no 452 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 2: issues as the two fighters that are involved are out 453 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: in there now at the bottom of the page your 454 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 2: DFS breakdown, Billy in terms of. You know, cash games GPPs. 455 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 2: What is your if there's anything similar to each approach? 456 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 2: What are some starting points for you when you look 457 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: at this h when you look at the contest. 458 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, for both cash and GPPs. I love Dean Berry. 459 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 5: He's some how not the most expensive fighter. I'm the 460 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 5: lady is one hundred short of Romanof at ninety five hundred. 461 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 5: I think, honestly, if you can get both of those 462 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,719 Speaker 5: guys in any kind of lineup, you should probably do it. 463 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 5: Romanov is a prohibited favorite. I'm sure Sean those off 464 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 5: the top of his head. What the line is for Romanov? 465 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 5: Something crazy? 466 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 4: It is? 467 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's it can can use the blow out. 468 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 3: The question is at what point do you take a 469 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,120 Speaker 3: shot on Chase Sherman. We're sitting at minus fourteen hundred 470 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 3: at bet MGM Sherman plus eight hundred. I mean, if 471 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 3: it gets to like plus two thousand on Sherman, I 472 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,199 Speaker 3: think you have to put a little dollars on it. 473 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,360 Speaker 3: But yeah, it's it's kind of hilarious. We don't these 474 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 3: are belat oar level lines. 475 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 5: But from a DFS standpoint, they're only going to make 476 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 5: a guy so expensive, so really quick just to. 477 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:40,719 Speaker 7: Jump in, just to jump in. 478 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 2: Roman off is mayas fifteen hundred on draft Kings plus 479 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 2: eight fifty for Sherman on draft Kings. 480 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 3: And I think we're gonna keep seeing this get higher. 481 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 3: I mean, it's it should be absolutely be done. 482 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 5: So from a DFS standpoint, they're only going to make 483 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 5: a guy so expensive. And they also don't update the 484 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 5: salaries as betting lines change. So just in terms of 485 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 5: win equity, for you're getting a ton out of romanofen Berry. 486 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 5: But of course that means you're gonna have to go 487 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 5: on the cheap side. And Sean mentioned Montana. 488 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 6: De la Rosa. 489 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 5: I really like her for cash games. That fight's probably 490 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 5: not getting stopped. I like her as a live dog, 491 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 5: but even if it goes the distance, she's got good 492 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 5: activity level. She should get you some points and not 493 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 5: be totally drawn dad. And then on the GPP, the 494 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 5: cheap side, I really like Cameron else I mentioned him earlier. 495 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 5: You know, Sean mentioned he's never won to fight by 496 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 5: decision and probably doesn't today, So he's either going to 497 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 5: get you a lot of points or he loses, and 498 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 5: then you know that lineups dead anyway, So that's what 499 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 5: I'm looking at obviously both fighters in the main event. 500 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 5: We're just gonna plug those in for cash games. I 501 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 5: don't see a reason not to. And every time I 502 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 5: try to go away from that strategy it comes back 503 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 5: to bite me. So I'm just locking that one in nighttime. 504 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 5: There's only one five round fight. 505 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 2: Well, and just to add too, Oftentimes folks are pressured 506 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,239 Speaker 2: to spend every dollar of their salary cap when they 507 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 2: make a lineup, but in this case, you actually think 508 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 2: this is a good week that you don't have to 509 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 2: necessarily spend all fifty k in a contest. 510 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, especially when we have less total fights on the card. 511 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 5: If you avoid going you know, forty nine eight forty 512 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 5: nine nine fifty, your odds of being duplicated with someone 513 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 5: else is drastically lower, and that just makes your expected 514 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 5: value so much higher. You know, even if you're giving 515 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,439 Speaker 5: up one or two percent of win equity, if you're 516 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 5: going to get a solo win, if that happens, it's 517 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 5: more than worth it. 518 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 6: And there's just enough cheap guys. 519 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 5: You know, we mentioned Jordan Wright that we like, We 520 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 5: mentioned Montana de la Rosa, Cameron Els, you know, so 521 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 5: you can make it work. 522 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 6: At the cheaper. 523 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 5: I fit two of the fighters around the high end 524 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 5: and still not come to the top of that saillary 525 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:33,479 Speaker 5: cap where a lot of people feel like they have 526 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 5: to approach fifty K and that just cost them a 527 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 5: lot of expected value long time, long term. 528 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 2: Okay, before we go, let's get to best bets for 529 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 2: UFC Fight Night two five. 530 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 7: Shanzarolo, you can go first. 531 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Claiy Guita minus one ten against 532 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 3: Claudia playlists. 533 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 4: I think plays being. 534 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,159 Speaker 3: A little bit overrated here based upon his win streak, 535 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 3: but a lot of those he was trailing in every 536 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 3: single fight and just happing to snatch. 537 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 4: Up a submission. He is a guy who is losing 538 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 4: him to the moment he wins. 539 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 3: But unlike other guys like that who we've bet on 540 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,360 Speaker 3: this podcast in the past, like one of our favorites, 541 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 3: the Bear Drew Paul Craig, he does not have a 542 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 3: good guard game. He's not going to trap you in 543 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 3: a guillotine. He's not going to do things that have 544 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 3: caught play Guita in trouble in the past. He needs 545 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 3: to snatch up a leg lock or something weird. He 546 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 3: needs you to make the mistake. He's not gonna snatch 547 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 3: up or he's not going to create a mistake and 548 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 3: capitalize on it. So I expect Gita to absolutely dominate 549 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 3: the minutes here. Should have the advantage on the feet, 550 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 3: definitely has the advantage with the wrestling. I think he 551 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 3: can rinse and repeat with the takedowns, hold play us down, 552 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 3: stay safe, keep his head out of guillotine. That is 553 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 3: going to be the key. Even though, as I said, 554 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 3: plays doesn't have a gullotine submission on his record. I 555 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 3: believe so Gita, just purely with Cardio should be able 556 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 3: to overwhelm and eventually drown play As playoffs has not 557 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 3: shown good Cardi on the pass either. He tends to 558 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 3: fade in round three. I actually think Guita might be 559 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 3: able to get a ten to eight in round three, 560 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 3: So there's a chance that he just needs to win 561 00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,159 Speaker 3: one of the first two rounds in order to win 562 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 3: this fight. Going to have such a dominant round three. 563 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 3: So wrestling is life, bro, give me Clay Gaita at 564 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 3: minus one ten. 565 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Sean's probably right on that, but I'm 566 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 5: just like five years removed from being willing to bet 567 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 5: a million year old Clay Gida, but I just can't 568 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 5: bring myself to do. 569 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 4: It now onto Sleeper. 570 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 3: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 571 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 3: of players. 572 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 4: You probably already have a fantasy league on there. I 573 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 4: use it for mine. 574 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 3: It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry, 575 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 3: and now you could win on Sleeper by playing their 576 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 3: new over undergame. 577 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:32,719 Speaker 4: It's super simple. 578 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 3: First, in any sport, cho's two or more players that 579 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 3: you like and pick their over or under for example, 580 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 3: number of points in basketball or hits in baseball. Then 581 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 3: choose the amount of money you want to enter into 582 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 3: the contest. If you pick correctly, you can win anywhere 583 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 3: from two to over twenty times the amount you put in. 584 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 3: The main reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper 585 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 3: is that it's the only app where I can join 586 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,880 Speaker 3: my buddies contest and play together. It's got a built 587 00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 3: in group chat where I can see and copy my 588 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 3: friends picks with the top of a button. It's insanely 589 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 3: fun to ride it out together. So stop what you're 590 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 3: doing and download Sleeper now to play their new over undergame. 591 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 3: Have fun with your friends, make some money. Make sure 592 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 3: to use promo code action and sleep or match your 593 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 3: deposit up to one hundred dollars. Again, download Sleeper, then 594 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,399 Speaker 3: use promo code action when you deposit. Terms and conditions apply. 595 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 3: See Sleepers Terms of use for details. 596 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 4: Okay, back to the show. 597 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 7: UFC Fight Night two five, Billy best bet. 598 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 6: We talked about, you know, age versus mileage. He's got both. 599 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 5: He's forty and has well over fifty professional fight so 600 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 5: I just it's really hard to click that button, though, 601 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 5: I do think you're probably right. As I referenced before, 602 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,479 Speaker 5: I'm coming back to the Dean Barry fight. I'm kind 603 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 5: of surprised some of the secondary lines on this fight. 604 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,679 Speaker 5: I thought, you know, everyone would have him as just 605 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 5: an absolute smash. But you can get buried or winning 606 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 5: round one at plus one thirty on DraftKings. I think 607 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 5: it's probably that should be favored, But there's a ton 608 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,239 Speaker 5: of different bets along those lines that you can do. 609 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 5: You know, I would take the under one and a half. 610 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 5: I like bury inside the distance minus two twenty five 611 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 5: or so minus two hundred is the better line. And 612 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 5: then you know, if you want to lay minus one thousand, 613 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 5: I think it's the best Berry line right now. 614 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 6: That's probably a good bet too. He should be about 615 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 6: minus ten thousand. 616 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 5: I think so all of those that's based on Mike 617 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 5: Jackson just being terrible and having no business being here 618 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 5: or in play. But my favorite is around one line 619 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 5: of plus one thirty. 620 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 3: It's where you see a USC fight that you're so 621 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 3: suspicious might be fixed going in, going in that you're 622 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 3: just like, yeah, I mean, it seems like free money. 623 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 3: I don't disagree at all. Mike Jackson has no business 624 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 3: being here, and frankly, I don't know what he's been. 625 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,640 Speaker 5: Up to for the past four years, not fighting as 626 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 5: we can see, which is maybe not get it. We 627 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 5: talked about it, say, we talked about it off the pot, 628 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 5: but it seems like because that last fight was a 629 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,439 Speaker 5: no contest, the USC just contractually had to give them 630 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 5: one more and everyone's been dragging their feet for four years. 631 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 6: But who knows. 632 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,439 Speaker 3: I think they were playing phone check in hoping that 633 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 3: neither would call the other, but eventually Jackson asked for 634 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 3: the fight, and U see was like, who's the worst 635 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 3: guy we can give you? 636 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:01,439 Speaker 7: All? 637 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 6: Right? 638 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 2: Jen's great stuff as always looking forward to the weekend 639 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 2: and looking forward to watching whatever we see from Mike Jackson. 640 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 7: I'm intrigued. 641 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,440 Speaker 4: A one eight hundred Gambler special. Very good. 642 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 7: All right, that's going. 643 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 2: To do it for our UFC Fight Night two five 644 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 2: betting preview. We come to you every Friday before the 645 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 2: Saturday card, so please join us every week. Thanks to 646 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,920 Speaker 2: Action Network senior writer Sean Zarrillo and also former professional 647 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 2: MMA fighter and very much in shape Billy Ward our 648 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 2: MMA and list here. 649 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 7: At Action Network. 650 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 2: Brendan Glasheen signing off again. Be on the lookout every 651 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 2: Friday for our UFC betting previews. We'll catch you next time. 652 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 2: You have a great weekend.