WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2022 Week 13 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:11.840 Check it in Man Now Down Man Thursday Morning to 0:00:11.840 --> 0:00:18.200 seven First Beating the Book podcast megapod for week number thirteen. 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:21.320 I got that number right, Week thirteen in the National 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:25.079 Football League. It is December Man, six weeks left of 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.480 regular season action. It's Gil Alexander. That's the voice of 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.960 Jeff Parlay, visa host staple on this show in the 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:33.080 studio right by me, Hello, Jeffrey, how you doing? Man? 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:35.400 You good? I'm good. I think we're tied now. By 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:39.880 the way, I uh a glacial moving comeback by me. Well, 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:42.440 after a twenty and seven start, I believe I've gone 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:45.360 one in eight the last three weeks. That'll that'll happen 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:47.880 um with a one in eight performance, and then from 0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:50.480 his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, wearing a yans 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:54.480 or yellow sweatshirt. It is the very spelt Todd wishing 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:59.840 of everybody. How you doing, Toddy? Hey? Hey? It's very energetic, 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:03.600 this guy all right? And our rotating guests for the week, 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.440 someone who Todd was very rude to a couple of 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:08.520 years ago on this show, and it sparked much debate, 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:15.040 probably unbelievable. It wasn't rude anyone and let it be stricken. 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:18.200 For the record, please edit that out. Gil Ice is 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:22.480 off his rocker already, Thank you, O g. In sports betting, 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:27.000 using predictive algorithms to uh TO to determine the results 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:29.480 or to predict the results, I should say sporting events 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:33.600 the great dr Bob Bob stole everybody st o l L. 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.920 How you doing? Bob doing all right? Todd? You were 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:38.600 not rude to me. I don't even know what he's 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:40.720 talking about. Bob just has to say that, Todd. We 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:43.880 all know that he's just being polite. Okay. Gilly has 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:50.280 a penchant for a small streak of mischievousness. So I 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:52.720 don't know what you're talking about, Bob. Thanks for doing this, 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:54.480 appreciate it's good to see you. We never get to 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.680 see you, so it's good to see you. Very clear camera, 0:01:56.800 --> 0:02:01.280 well done. Yeah, a new computer, new computer, Bob comes 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:05.800 to us from Colorado. Is Deon Sander's gonna be the 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:09.880 coach in Colorado? I hope. So I don't know, right, 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.040 what do you say, Bob? You should take the South 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:16.320 Florida job. Oh that's the one he should take. Yeah, 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:18.440 it's the least pressure of the three that he's been 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:25.120 all the talent they have and in the Florida market, 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:29.760 which he knows. Yeah. Well, the one thing that is 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.079 interesting about him is though of course he will make 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:36.400 the announcement either to overshadow the final rankings or the 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.240 portal day on Monday, they'll actually put the hats on 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:43.200 the table, like right, he's got to have all the 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.920 attention alright. Week thirteen in the NFL UM A couple 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.000 of things here before we get into our best bets 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.560 dumbbell of the week. Okay, I'm going off the board. 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:55.800 This week, Josh McDaniels pitched the perfect game of making 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.399 every wrong decision and got away with it. It's amazing. 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:03.680 It is incredible that he did everything possibly wrong and 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.600 the Raiders still won the game, and they got a 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:09.440 premature whistle correct, and they got a lucky break on 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:12.560 the Jacob's fumble that they called that he forward progress 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:15.440 and b has terrible goal. But but just start us 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:19.560 all in the second half, everything McDaniels did wrong. Fourth 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:25.360 down and one at the seven kicks the field goal. Okay, 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:29.000 all right, sure, why not? Why not do that? Raiders? 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:34.200 Then in their next possession they punt after honestly, fourth 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.880 and six at the plus forty five in a game 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:40.040 where no one's getting stops should have been a considered 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.240 go for it as well. They fall start doesn't matter, 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.920 so fourth and eleven, of course you're gonna punt after 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:50.000 Seattle that great drive Regino got strip sacked, fumbled, Raiders 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:53.040 get it back. Then he decides to go for it 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.640 on fourth and one in his own end and they run. 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:59.400 The horrible play call of Jacobs has not been stopped 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.320 on a traditional run the whole game. They were on 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:06.280 the pitch play and he loses four yards okay to Seattle, touchdown. 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:10.840 Then Raiders go down the field after Seattle get took 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.600 the lead of Raiders go down the field, score touchdown. 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.320 Now it ended up working out for him. But in 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:19.440 a minute fifty four to go and all three of 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.520 your time outs, I would have gone for two. In 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.840 a game where you could not get stops, I would 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:27.400 have gone for two and try to win the game. 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:29.719 Right there, got away with it all right. You get 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:34.080 to stop amazingly enough with forty seconds to go in 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:38.760 two timeouts in a game again no one stopped anyone. 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:44.839 You play for overtime? What how do you play for 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:46.640 overtime when you get the ball. Yes, I know you 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.800 got it at your own nine, but they haven't stopped 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:52.640 you all day when Carr hasn't thrown the ball to them. 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:59.080 It was truly remarkable. And then and overtime overtime fourth 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.159 and two with the plus the already eight. I know 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:05.839 Carlson's awesome musical usually, but that isn't absolutely go for 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.640 it because if he misses the kids. Yes, yes, it's 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:13.480 kind of like with Dallas where McCarthy goes for it, 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:16.880 they don't get it. McCarthy gets crushed for for for 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.640 going for it. That's an automatic go in a game 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:23.840 where again you haven't gotten stops, they somehow get the stops. 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:26.680 Jacob rips off the eight six yard run. And even 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.640 though McDaniels pitched the perfect game of getting basically every 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:32.359 in game decision wrong, the Raiders found a way to 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.640 win it. Amazing. It was incredible. It was an amazing 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:38.120 Royal Flush had Seattle in game four different times and 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.760 got torpedoes somehow had Seattle pre flop fourth and two 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:43.640 at the Seattle thirty eight, with six twelve left and overtime, 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.800 he pushes the fifty five yard or right Seattle has 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:48.280 a shore field. All they needed a field goal. They 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:50.640 did get the three and out build him out. These 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:52.719 players bailed him out. I think that's good for dumbbell 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:54.360 of the week, right, Todd. We don't need any others, 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:57.040 do we? All? Right, did you have an in game 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:00.960 play you wanted to share with us? A little in 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:05.080 game thing with you? The Eagles game against the Packers. 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:07.800 It was the original line was forty six and a 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:11.200 half on the total it was thirteen to seven with 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:13.920 six minutes left in the first quarter, so you got 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:17.120 twenty one minutes left in the half, and the total 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.679 for the first half was over thirty six and a half, 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.039 which meant only another sixteen and a half more points. 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:26.520 I took the over thirty six and a half and 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:28.640 obviously came in. But what I get, I guess the 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:30.799 point that I really want to make about this bet 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.080 is I found and this this this happens in a 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:38.240 lot of sports where when a game is going wildly over, 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.960 very often in the end game, it's better to bet 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.920 that first if it's happening in the first half. I mean, 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.120 it's better to bet the first half over and not 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:50.680 the game over, because in the second half, you might 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:56.039 see massive um adjustments, and very often a huge scoring 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:58.320 first half leads to a low scoring second half. It 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.960 didn't happen in this particular Eagle game, but in general, 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.320 it's something that happens a lot, like in college football 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.000 and even in the pros that happens a lot. So 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.239 um something to look for if you like an over 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:15.280 that's wildly gone crazy early on, play the over in 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.360 the first half on the end game rather than the 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:21.200 full game, because you might get torpedoed by the adjustments 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.440 by the defense in the second half. So anyways, it wasn't. 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.200 It was a pretty easy winner because it was pretty 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:28.840 clear that Green Bay was going to be able to 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:30.520 move the ball, and I knew the Eagles weren't going 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:35.240 to get stopped three the final well over they got 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:39.400 over in the first half, or almost over the at 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:43.400 the half, basically I did. I was way over, but 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.000 then the second half almost went under and it would 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:47.840 have gone underhead there not been that, you know, the 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.240 late field goal nonsense, but very often that's something that 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.120 you see when you have these huge scoring first halfs 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:56.800 in games that are going way over what they're supposed 0:07:56.840 --> 0:07:59.680 to be. There's a regression back because the teams, you know, 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:02.480 spend the whole halftime adjusting for the second half with 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:04.560 their defense. Update the records for us, if you will, 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:09.200 Toddy the records we have Gilly, he's already talked about 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:13.080 his tremendous fall off the cliff to twenty one and fifteen. 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.920 He still leads, though he's still leave thought tohow, I thought, 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.480 I'm tied with jeff With Jeffrey, well, that's the lead. 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.400 Tied for the lead with Jeffrey twenty one and fifteen. 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:26.080 I am two games back at nineteen and seventeen. We're 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:28.400 starting to write the ship with the teasers. You're both 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:30.280 five and seven and I'm three, eight and one on 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.880 the teasers. We've been having some winning weeks with the 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.480 teasers lately. What about the guest chair. The guest chair 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:39.600 is eighteen and eighteen and eight and four with the teaser. 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:42.440 That's the mode. The eight and four with the teasers 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:46.080 for the geesers the most amazing thing. Also, i'd have 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:48.960 the lead that Marcus Mariota's plinkoat chip went down the 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.960 right slot. Don't don't be given me. Don't don't start 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.559 with the if if this happens, you'd have to lead. 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.760 I have about eight of those. You have at least 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:01.439 six in the last two weeks on believable how many games, 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.360 and that I've managed to lose from the jaws of victory. 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:09.160 Now that said, I have one my share of bullshit also, right, 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.480 I think it's the most bob. I'm curious. Let's just 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.920 have this conversation before we get into best bets. It 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:17.720 is my theory that the plinko nature of the NFL 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:20.640 on the side is just getting worse. And when I 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:25.440 say this to people, um veteran handicappers, they say, well, no, Gil, 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:27.239 I think you and I even even have this conversation 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:30.080 on on text, They're like, no, you know, if you 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:33.199 can find the percentage of games where Plinko doesn't come in, 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.160 maybe you're just not choosing the right games. I just 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.360 feel like the that it's a higher percentage than ever 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:41.840 before of the games that in the end, if I 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.280 win or lose, it ain't me in the end, it's 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:48.400 just how the ball bounces. I don't know if there's 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:52.560 any date on that. I think there might be a 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:56.760 little more randomness due to more coaches going for two 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.280 and you feel like Oh, they shouldn't have gone for 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.440 two and lost because of they missed that two point conversion. 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:04.720 And there's more of that. But maybe they should have 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:06.439 gone for two and you're wrong and you should have 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.640 lost the game. I think there's a lot more of 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.720 that where you're losing or winning by a point because 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.679 of two point conversion decisions. I think there's a lot 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:15.960 more of that because I've been on a few of 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.720 those this year. That's fair, that's certainly part of it. Again, 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.080 I feel like you've forgotten how much plink on nous 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:25.200 there was in the past. No, no, there there was. 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:27.760 There was always plinko crazy. I mean, as the person 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:30.240 who sort of first said that, you know, came up 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:33.080 with the plinko as applied to sports betting. I'm certainly, 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:35.040 I'm certainly aware of that. But I just feel like, 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:37.320 and maybe I am a prisoner of the moment. Todd, 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:39.200 You could be right, but I just feel like it 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:42.800 has happened in both directions, you know what. I think 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.480 it's just because we've done a really good, gut job 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.240 of being on games that have been close to the number. 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:52.120 Good job meaning a terrible you know what I mean, Yes, yes, whatever, whatever, 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.240 way you want to phrase it, but a but but 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:57.360 but also to hold on hold on the second um 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.120 this lead. No, Jeff, what Todd has to say is 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:04.160 more important than what you but but but but this 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:09.040 this league is so damn even at this point, these 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.559 teams are so close to each other in ability. Well, 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:13.920 that's what it is. That's why these games are are 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:17.800 coming down to and again that's why the Wong Teasers 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.880 getting annihilated early in the season. We're kind of in 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:25.959 retrospect is ridiculous because this league is so bunched together. Well, 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.360 but but it was the favorite, was the favorite, the 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.600 favorite coming down. That's why we've all justin. We've taken 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.040 the underdogs the last few weeks, and the underdogs have 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.960 been coming through on teaser like people love teasers. This week, though, 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:38.840 all right, you want to start with the best bets, 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.840 Let's do this. We start with the guest, as always, 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.480 the great doctor Bob, my friend Bob Soul. What is 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.280 your first best bet, sir? Like the over of the 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:52.800 Jets Vikings game. Um Gil, who do you think leads 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:57.120 the NFL in quarterback success rate the last two years? 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:00.559 Minimum of four games played? Mike White play four games 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:05.240 he's played five Mike White and he has the highest 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.680 success rate of any quarterback in the league fifty four 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:12.880 point two compared to Patrick Mahomes fifty three point eight. 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:15.120 Now success rate, Well, the thing about Mike White is 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:19.720 he plays within the system. And that's all the Jets 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.200 need is someone to play within the system. Take the 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:24.560 check down. They have a good defense. They don't need 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.800 Zack Wilson going off script and trying to throw the 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.840 ball force of all down the field. That hasn't worked 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.800 for them. The thing about Mike White is when he's off, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:36.000 he's throwing three interceptions, and that could happen, but UM, 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:38.400 that's not necessarily bad for and over. Either interception is 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.240 gonna be returned for touchdown. UM. So the Jets offense 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:44.360 certainly better with Mike White. I'm not anointing them as 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:46.120 one of the better offenses in the league, but they're 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.840 certainly better with Mike White instead of Zack Wilson, who 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:50.959 has a career success right at a thirty nine percent, 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:54.120 by the way, which is very low. UM. Jets offenses 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:57.679 Corey Davis back this week a really good compliment to 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:02.479 Garrett Wilson. UM. When Davis is out they've struggled offensively 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:06.360 a little bit more. Speaking of Wilson, Um Analyjah More 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:08.520 both did some damage in this lot last week. I 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.280 think that's gonna work again. Vikings nickel back Shannon Sulivan 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.839 ranks third to last among qualifying nickel backs and yards 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:17.960 per route run allowed in the slot, so I think 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:20.840 that slot game is gonna work. Mike White doesn't mind 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:25.079 throwing those short passes in the slot. UM Jets running 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.440 backs uh tend to get a lot of balls out 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.520 of the backfield, and probably more with White as quarterback. 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.120 Vikings are thirtieth in the league and yards per target 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.000 allowed to running back, so I think it's a good 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:39.319 match for the Jets offense. UM Vikings have been playing 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:44.120 well offensively all year. Getting Howkinson has helped has helped 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:47.240 a little bit because justin Jefferson now it has a 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:49.720 little more room to work. I mean, Hockinson has taken 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.280 that intermediate route in the middle and that opens things 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.240 up on the outside a little bit. And they've been 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:56.640 going downfield a lot with Jefferson, which has been working 0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:58.400 for them. So I think both teams will be able 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.160 to score here. So um I the model pis four 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.920 points and I think over forty six or less is good. 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:09.840 That what is the total we're saying and a half? Uh, Gil, 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:13.400 that's my number one play as well. Really yeah, I 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:15.400 was on that too, but not as my number one play, 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:18.760 but I have Yeah, that's my number one as well. 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:24.080 The Jets offense with Mike White is to me at worst, 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.000 well not at worst, but it's lee gaverage at this 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:29.000 point when with Zach Wilson it was in the bottom 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:35.800 of the league. The Vikings defense stinks, and every point 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:39.160 that Bob made leads me to thinking this game is 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.880 gonna go over. There's one other factor to clip. Blakeman's 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:47.280 crew is officiating this game. They are a high defensive, 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:51.360 pass in affairs, defensive holding, the legal contact crew, good knowledge. 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:55.880 So Sauce Gardner, as great as he's been, it's a 0:14:56.000 --> 0:15:00.280 very physical corner. DJ Read is a physical corner. The 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:02.640 Jets are going to get called for penalties they have 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.720 not been called for this year in this game, especially 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.280 when trying to cover Justin Jefferson. It was just the 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.080 point by Jerry Rice right now. He's been insanely good 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.360 the last month. So I think this is a high 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.600 scoring game that gets aided by the fact that Minnesota's 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.520 offense is is good, the Jets offense is now league 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:24.720 average offense is opposed to a bottom tier offense. Minnesota's 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.600 defense sucks, and the refs are gonna call penalties in 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.640 this game. So I think this is thirty one twenty. 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:33.080 I think this game is in the fifties. So I'm 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.200 with Bob. I'm over forty four and a half? Is 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.960 that one of yours? That was gonna be my third one? 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:39.760 But maybe I'll go with a different one. You don't 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:45.320 have to, Okay, I'll decide alright, Um, well you're up. 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:48.240 So what you got first? I'm gonna go with the 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:52.239 New York Football Giants. How many points are getting? Two 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:55.680 and a half New York Football Giants plus two and 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.680 a half, just simply for the mere fact that the 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:05.040 Washington command Indos have won every single game and covered 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.560 I believe six out of seven games in a row. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.160 Am I correct about saying that? Let me just check 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:14.479 that every six out of seven they've covered against at Chicago, 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.760 Green Bay, at Indianapolis one. All three of those games 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.800 lost to Minnesota and pushed and you know, getting three 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:27.080 and then beat Philadelphia, beat Houston and then beat Atlanta 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.880 in a game that they could have easily lost um 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.040 and would have been nice for me that they depends 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.360 on You've got that Washington Minnesota because they they won 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:37.480 on that line for many yeah, one during the week 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:40.160 it depended So that makes me better. That would that 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:42.560 would have made him seven and oh against the spread. 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.960 It's very difficult in the National Football League to go 0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:49.360 seven and oh against the spread. It's just the kind 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.600 of league as we were talking about earlier, that's going 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:53.880 to go back and forth because the lines are so tight. 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:56.760 And now you're going to ask the Redskins, I mean, 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:03.080 the Commanders to continue this amazing run of football. And granted, 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.000 you know they have a good defense. The Taylor Heineke 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:10.480 is better than you know that other guy. And uh 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:13.800 and now you're asking, you're you're saying, okay, now you're 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:16.119 gonna go on the road and give points. Now. I 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:19.000 know the Giants have been overrated. I know the Giants 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:21.000 did it with smoke and mirrors. I know all about 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.840 the Giants. The Giants aren't good. The Giants aren't good. 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:29.240 Home team divisional game. I just think you're getting the 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:31.879 two and a half points. This game has seventeen sixteen 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:37.040 written all over eighteen. Uh you know some ridiculous you 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:39.360 know number like that where it gets inside the two 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.359 and a half. Give me the Giants to shock the 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.760 world and all the people that will be putting their 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.560 money on the Commanders. And my friend Gilly Ice who 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:49.280 thinks the Commanders are going to the Super Bowl with 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:53.640 marcol Rippin Heineke. I don't believe I've ever said that. Yes, 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.800 it's a problem for me. My number two pick is 0:17:56.800 --> 0:18:03.439 the exact same Pickny, So so I'll just get this 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:05.359 out of the way before you do two in a row, Gilly, 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:08.520 I think the wrong team is favorite in this game. 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:13.399 I know the Giants are the smoking mirrors team. I 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.919 thought this should have been Giants as the slightest of 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.160 favorites in this game. At home. Washington has covered all 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.600 these games in a row. What are we calling interceptible balls? 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:27.200 Are we calling them itch itches? Heineki is itching all 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.720 over the place recently. It just basically feels like it's 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:33.760 the good vibe Carson Wentz where the turnovers just aren't happening, 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:39.280 but interceptions that should have happened. I t s h itches. 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:43.240 So you're scoring at home I think I think Heinek 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:44.919 is gonna have one of these games. It's coming. It 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:47.240 may not come this week, but I the fact that 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:49.320 I'm on the Giants, my hope is it comes this 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:53.000 week where Heineke is throwing to three interceptions on balls 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.520 that should have been picked the last month plause, I 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.679 mean five weeks ago, this team was an underdog to 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:02.520 freaking Sam Ellinger. I've mean, come on now, it's it's 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.400 been a little bit of a charmed run for Washington. 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:08.159 Now Washington plays this is weird scheduling quirk. Remember I 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:10.360 was going to bring this at the Giants by week 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:12.159 and then they get the Giants and land over and two. 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:16.480 So if Washington wins this game, oh boy, huge advantage. 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:20.399 If Washington wins this game, Washington Commanders are gonna make 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.800 the playoffs. If they lose this game, then that game 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:27.520 in two weeks is of the utmost importance for both teams. 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.640 But I think the wrong team's favorite here. I'm gonna 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:31.119 take the Giants plus two and a half. And the 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:33.359 fact that Todd and I have agreed on two is 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:37.840 very alarming. So far, very alarming. Um My number two 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:41.960 pick is the Washington Commanders let me just start there. 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.320 So before the Giants lost these last two games, let 0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:48.639 me just take you guys down analytics road. The Giants 0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:51.280 at that point were seven and two. They were five 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:53.720 and one in games decided by seven points or fewer. 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:58.040 Their biggest win had had been by eight points. They 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.280 had been outscored one thirty one to one through the 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:04.000 first three quarters of their games. But then they would 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.639 magically go plus twenty two and point differential in the 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:10.280 fourth quarter, which is top five in the league. UM 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:14.240 shout out to Bill Barnwell for those numbers. Also also 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.160 Wink Martindale's defense was twenty six and ep a per 0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:19.240 play outside the red zone, but then magically, when they 0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:22.959 got inside the twenty they became the league's the league's 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:26.800 best unit. That is, ben don't break, as people like 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:30.159 to say, but that's not sustainable. So they've allowed teams 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:32.400 to make it to the red zone third highest rate. 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:33.600 That was up to the up to the ninth game 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:35.280 of the season when they're seven and two, they had 0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:36.760 allowed teams to make it to the red zone at 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.119 the third highest rate of a per game basis, but 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.800 then only allowed those offenses to convert thirty eight point 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:44.840 two percent of the time, only the Broncos were better. 0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:47.639 So basically, and will add to that, on first and 0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:49.919 second down, the Giants had been the league's fourth worst 0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:51.879 defense by e p A per play, and then on 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:54.120 third and fourth down, of course, then they morph into 0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:59.720 the third best defense. So okay one more so, despite 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.520 the fact that opposing offenses had the fifth fewest yards 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:04.879 to go to pick up on third downs, they were 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:09.000 the third best defense at avoiding conversions timely turnovers as well. 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:11.560 So the Smoke and Mirrors team, Ladies and Gentlemen is 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:15.480 not the Washington Commodorees. It is the New York Football Giants. 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:19.760 We agree that they're the smoking Mirrors. We never said both. Really, 0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:21.280 what I heard more from you as the smoke and 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:23.480 Mirrors of Washington, not so much New York Giants. So 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:25.879 we can rewind the tape. We could rewind the tape 0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.360 the Giants. I believe it's I believe it's my turn 0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:30.879