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Speaker 2: On this debate day, we're finally here, the twenty seventh
Speaker 2: of June. We're told the most important day of the
Speaker 2: presidential campaign. Yet maybe we'll look back and call it
Speaker 2: the most pivotal day of the campaign in total. I
Speaker 2: was just talking to my friend John coming into the
Speaker 2: studio today. He said, I'd rather watch the Golden Girls,
Speaker 2: at least they're funny. But new numbers from Quinnipiac tell
Speaker 2: you otherwise. This is going to be a show tonight.
Speaker 2: Quinnipiac national poll of registered voters seven to ten. Seventy
Speaker 2: three percent say it is likely they will watch this
Speaker 2: debate tonight. Twenty five percent have other plans. That's pretty good.
Speaker 2: That's like Oscar's numbers, right. This could be the super
Speaker 2: Bowl of politics once again in Atlanta. Joe Biden, Donald
Speaker 2: Trump on stage for the first time in four years.
Speaker 2: And you know the deal with the rules. Yeah, they're
Speaker 2: gonna cut off the mic when the time is up.
Speaker 2: But this is going to be a fascinating thing to see.
Speaker 2: It's in the studio, of course, without the audience, where
Speaker 2: the two candidates will be, and then all heck breaks
Speaker 2: loose after in the spin room when the surrogates come
Speaker 2: in and they talk to the journalists and you know what,
Speaker 2: David gour is already in there. I love this, starting
Speaker 2: early in Atlanta, reporting for Bloomberg of course, the host
Speaker 2: of the Big Take podcast. But he's all ours today, David,
Speaker 2: how are things looking so far?
Speaker 3: Well, it's cool in here, which may be one of
Speaker 3: the driving reasons why I've come inside. It's great to
Speaker 3: speak with you, Joe, of course, And yeah, we're very
Speaker 3: curious how all of this unfolds. The head of the
Speaker 3: network that is putting on this debate has said quite
Speaker 3: frankly that he wants to harken back to something that
Speaker 3: we saw in nineteen sixty, that is the debate between
Speaker 3: JFK and Richard Nixon, that first TV debate. Wants to
Speaker 3: pare it back and not have the audience, not have
Speaker 3: any of that artifice. We'll see how that works. We'll
Speaker 3: see how these two candidates do with that kind of setting.
Speaker 3: I think what's prompting a lot of the curiosity that
Speaker 3: you're describing numbers that might even be better than the
Speaker 3: Oscars or the super Bowl, is just seeing how these
Speaker 3: two candidates navigate that, what they're going to look like
Speaker 3: on stage independently and with each other, and how they
Speaker 3: interact with the moderators of this debate. It is a
Speaker 3: curiosity and a curiosity, of course, Joe. That's coming a
Speaker 3: few months earlier than the most cycles. We're having this
Speaker 3: debate before we get to the political conventions, which is
Speaker 3: also novel in itself.
Speaker 2: It is novel, and you wonder what we'll think about
Speaker 2: this by the time we get to potentially a second debate,
Speaker 2: as they've scheduled in September. David, you know, I love
Speaker 2: to go to ground when you get on the road
Speaker 2: in a case like this, tell us what it's like.
Speaker 2: I'm assuming you've got media from around the world there tonight,
Speaker 2: and will you have ven you to talk to surrogates
Speaker 2: in the spin room later.
Speaker 3: They'll be here. We're looking forward to talking to them
Speaker 3: and we'll see who shows up and who is carrying
Speaker 3: the flag for both of these candidates right now, it's
Speaker 3: fairly quiet, and I will say one of the weirder
Speaker 3: facets of this is by virtue of the fact that
Speaker 3: the debate is taking place at CNN studios some remove
Speaker 3: from here, it does feel like there is a wider
Speaker 3: geographic distance than perhaps there is. We're not sort of
Speaker 3: interfacing a lot with the teams that are surrounding these
Speaker 3: two candidates, I should say, Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Speaker 3: arriving in town a little bit later this afternoon. But
Speaker 3: everyone with whom I've spoken knows this is happening is
Speaker 3: complaining about the traffic that's already started to slow down
Speaker 3: across the city. So it is certainly central, both geographically
Speaker 3: and on the mines of most at Lantin's here today.
Speaker 2: The President arrives two fifteen pm Dobbin's Air Reserve Base.
Speaker 2: According to his schedule, hees going straight from Camp David
Speaker 2: to Atlanta, Georgia today. David, are we going to see
Speaker 2: the traditional walk through or do we not see the
Speaker 2: president and former president until the lights go on at
Speaker 2: nine o'clock tonight.
Speaker 3: I don't think that there's anything on the schedule up
Speaker 3: until that point, and we are kind of watching to
Speaker 3: see what they do after this debate concludes, both in
Speaker 3: the hours after in the days to come. So there
Speaker 3: are watch parties throughout the city that are also fundraisers
Speaker 3: for these two candidates. Donald Trump expected to go to
Speaker 3: one at Kelly Luffler's house, she of course, the former
Speaker 3: senator from Georgia. And at that event we talked about
Speaker 3: the surrogates just a moment ago. Many of those surrogates
Speaker 3: who are also this group of finalists for the VP
Speaker 3: nomination for Donald Trump, expected to be at that party
Speaker 3: as well. And then Joe Biden likely to go to
Speaker 3: a party of his supporting plant as well. Before they
Speaker 3: hit the road. And where are they going to go to?
Speaker 3: They're going to go to swing states here in the South,
Speaker 3: Joe Biden going to North Carolina obviously has been a
Speaker 3: purplish or purple trending state in recent election cycles. Donald
Speaker 3: Trump going to Virginia to speak to his supporters there tomorrow,
Speaker 3: and then the President Joe Biden going to the northeast
Speaker 3: to the Hampton's and to New We're to do some
Speaker 3: high dollar fundraising on the heels of this. So, as
Speaker 3: you know, Joe, the event itself always exciting and telegraphs
Speaker 3: so much, and then we kind of see how that
Speaker 3: kind of changes or alters the message that these candidates
Speaker 3: are going to give and the run up to those
Speaker 3: conventions that of course the general election November.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's remarkable. They're not technically they're party's formal nominees.
Speaker 2: But here we are tonight, David Goura, you're in for
Speaker 2: a day. I'm really glad you're there, and we thank you.
Speaker 2: We'll catch up a little bit later on here on
Speaker 2: Balance of Power on the late edition, and then in
Speaker 2: our special coverage tonight, David's going to help us shepherd
Speaker 2: our way through this whole thing, starting at eight pm
Speaker 2: Eastern time here on Bloomberg TV and radio on YouTube,
Speaker 2: where you can search Bloomberg Global News and find us.
Speaker 2: We'll have a great panel for you. Rick Davis and
Speaker 2: Kristen Hahn will be here for the pregame and the
Speaker 2: post debate analysis. You don't need to go anywhere else
Speaker 2: but right here on Bloomberg for all of this. With
Speaker 2: the big curtain raiser courtesy our friend Don Levy at
Speaker 2: Siena College. More than two thirds of voters said the
Speaker 2: outcome of Donald Trump's criminal case in Manhattan made no
Speaker 2: difference to their vote. As we step into this debate tonight,
Speaker 2: the head to head result of the survey forty four percent.
Speaker 2: Mister Trump with his biggest lead in the Siena poll.
Speaker 2: Glad to say Don Levy is back with us. He
Speaker 2: runs the research institute at Siena College. This is the
Speaker 2: poll on the front page of the New York Times today.
Speaker 2: Don his biggest point margin when calculated before figures are
Speaker 2: round it to be exact here, mister Trump's lead with
Speaker 2: registered voters was an even larger six percentage points. How
Speaker 2: do you rationalize that after so much noise in his campaign.
Speaker 4: Well, we see a lot of movement in the campaign
Speaker 4: right now amongst a couple of groups, most especially independents.
Speaker 4: Trump picked up about three points over our poll in
Speaker 4: April amongst independents, and actually he closed a gap with.
Speaker 5: Women to a certain degree.
Speaker 4: Women is a constituency that President Biden certainly needs to
Speaker 4: carry and carry strongly, and that move from a double
Speaker 4: digitally down to only about six points amongst women. So
Speaker 4: we see some movement across the electorate, but we continue
Speaker 4: to focus to a great deal on a group of
Speaker 4: people that we call the double haters. And I think
Speaker 4: that what people need to look at is they look
Speaker 4: at this debate. Is everyone's going to look at it
Speaker 4: through their own prism. About seventy five percent of the
Speaker 4: electorate is baked in at this point. Those are people
Speaker 4: who have a favorable view of one of the candidates
Speaker 4: and an unfavorable view of the other. So, for example,
Speaker 4: of those voters who are favorable on Trump and unfavorable
Speaker 4: on Biden, they tell us that they're going to vote
Speaker 4: for Trump at rates of about ninety seven percent. Biden
Speaker 4: is similar in the other direction. But right now, if
Speaker 4: the vote were taking place just amongst those people, the
Speaker 4: love haters as we call them, Trump is up by
Speaker 4: two or three points in the battleground states, and nationally
Speaker 4: it's the double haters, the people who have an unfavorable
Speaker 4: view of both Biden and Trump, who ironically are set
Speaker 4: up to decide the election, and hopefully will be amongst
Speaker 4: those seventy seven percent that we fold who say they're
Speaker 4: going to tune in tonight.
Speaker 2: Those ironically will decide the election. Okay, so don for
Speaker 2: a seasoned polster who's been talking to these people, you guys,
Speaker 2: you know, come back around and follow up on interviews
Speaker 2: with your sample. Do we have any reason to believe
Speaker 2: that an event like tonight could move a double hater
Speaker 2: in one direction or the other?
Speaker 4: Well, I think absolutely we do, because some of the
Speaker 4: issues that affect double haters are just how they feel
Speaker 4: towards these these two candidates. Right now, Biden is losing
Speaker 4: in the two old battle, but Trump is losing in
Speaker 4: the temperament battle. And frankly, when you look at these
Speaker 4: double haters, those double haters will end up saying, I'll
Speaker 4: probably vote for Trump, but they're doing so more so
Speaker 4: because they view Trump as better on policies that matter
Speaker 4: to them most, especially the economy. When you look at
Speaker 4: the double haters who tell us that they might vote
Speaker 4: for Biden, it's because they simply don't like Donald Trump
Speaker 4: more than they dislike Joe Biden. Donald Trump assuayses those
Speaker 4: concerns tonight. That's going to help him with those double haters.
Speaker 4: If Joe Biden demonstrates that he's still with it, he's
Speaker 4: not too old to be president of the United States,
Speaker 4: that's going to help them. It's those qualities, those personal
Speaker 4: qualities that could sway those double haters a little bit.
Speaker 5: One way or another.
Speaker 4: He brought up the trial before. Amongst double haters, over
Speaker 4: twenty percent of double haters say, you know what, that
Speaker 4: trial made me feel more like I want to vote
Speaker 4: for a third party candidate rather than either of the
Speaker 4: two major party candidates.
Speaker 5: This debate is an.
Speaker 4: Opportunity for both Biden and Trump to speak to those
Speaker 4: double haters and to try to move them ever so
Speaker 4: slightly in their direction. Right now, Biden leads amongst double
Speaker 4: haters by about seven or eight points. He needs a
Speaker 4: bigger advantage there if he's going to overcome Trump's current advantage.
Speaker 2: And you just use the keyword I think done. That's temperament, right.
Speaker 2: If someone's going to be swayed away from Donald Trump tonight,
Speaker 2: it might not have anything to do with policy, but
Speaker 2: the way he comports himself. And we haven't seen Donald
Speaker 2: Trump in a debate in four years. We have seen
Speaker 2: him on the stump recently saying some pretty wild things.
Speaker 2: But doesn't this apply to both If Joe Biden comes
Speaker 2: in swinging and yelling, does his temperament be called suddenly
Speaker 2: into question?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 4: Absolutely, And especially amongst these double haters, who are you
Speaker 4: can call them persuadable? You can call them swing voters.
Speaker 4: They're the ones whose minds are not completely made up
Speaker 4: right now. They rate Biden on temperament really at about
Speaker 4: a break even slightly better. Trump is a negative about
Speaker 4: ten points on temper So the temperament battle is up
Speaker 4: for grabs amongst these double haters, these pivotal voters. And
Speaker 4: how these candidates look, their facial expressions, how they treat
Speaker 4: one another, whether they can look through that camera and
Speaker 4: connect with American voters is going to make a big
Speaker 4: difference tonight and could very well turn the tenor of
Speaker 4: the election as we move on into these dog days
Speaker 4: of summer.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've watched Joe Biden's favorabilities hover from upper thirties
Speaker 2: to low forties for a pretty long period of time.
Speaker 2: Here is there an equivalent for Donald Trump since he's
Speaker 2: not in office.
Speaker 4: Well, we track certainly Donald Trump's favorability. He tends to
Speaker 4: be a similar, if not lower number overall. But the
Speaker 4: difference being that the size of the group who like
Speaker 4: Trump but don't like Biden is now slightly larger than
Speaker 4: the group who liked Biden and don't like Trump. If
Speaker 4: you go back to two sixteen, when we first started
Speaker 4: to look at this dynamic between Hillary.
Speaker 5: Clinton and Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Clinton always maintained a slight advantage in the percentage of
Speaker 4: Americans who viewed her favorably and Trump negatively as opposed
Speaker 4: to the opposite. So Biden right now is losing the
Speaker 4: battle of these love haters, if you will, But yet
Speaker 4: he still holds a slight advantage in the double hates.
Speaker 4: The double haters, by the way, tend to be younger.
Speaker 4: They tend to have voted Democratic in the last election
Speaker 4: by almost twenty points. So that's a group that Biden
Speaker 4: has lost. He needs to get those back, and they
Speaker 4: are ideologically as a group, more predisposed to vote for
Speaker 4: Biden than they are Trump. Yet at the same time
Speaker 4: they're desperately concerned about the economy.
Speaker 5: Biden also needs tonight.
Speaker 4: To somehow, some well, some way convince these double haters
Speaker 4: and all Americans that he understands the pressures that they
Speaker 4: feel economically and he's doing something about it. Right now,
Speaker 4: Trump has a decided advantage among Americans who feel as
Speaker 4: though he, rather than Biden, is a better economic steward.
Speaker 2: Double haters feel like to be a great name for
Speaker 2: a punk rock band. Don if I can just pull
Speaker 2: out here and pick a headline, maybe the most important
Speaker 2: thing that you've said. So for Donald Trump, if I
Speaker 2: heard you right, has pulled even with Joe Biden among women.
Speaker 2: If that's true, and you see you consider most of
Speaker 2: the bad news on abortion, if I call it bad news,
Speaker 2: potentially threatening news to Donald Trump politically when it comes
Speaker 2: to reproductive rights. We've gotten through the Supreme Court decisions
Speaker 2: at this point. Obviously Roe is behind Donald Trump. Is
Speaker 2: that meaningful here? And how much of a problem for
Speaker 2: Joe Biden.
Speaker 5: Well, it is a problem for Joe Biden.
Speaker 4: What in our most recent poll we found was that
Speaker 4: Biden's lead amongst women went from sixteen points to only
Speaker 4: five points. So Trump picked up eleven points amongst women.
Speaker 4: And so it's that fight, that balance between issues like
Speaker 4: abortion and issues.
Speaker 5: Around the economy.
Speaker 4: Right now, women have moved to the tune of eleven
Speaker 4: points towards Trump. I think that Biden is going to
Speaker 4: wrestle with that this evening and try to remind women
Speaker 4: that he represents their rights relative to reproductive freedom. At
Speaker 4: the same time, the economy weighs on, of course, not
Speaker 4: just women but everyone. It's the economy which seems to
Speaker 4: have pushed a greater percentage of women, not quite break even,
Speaker 4: but a greater percentage of women to now say that
Speaker 4: they would vote for Donald Trump rather than where they
Speaker 4: have historically been, more so in the Democrat account.
Speaker 2: He's leading the conversation today across the nation to this debate.
Speaker 2: Don Levy Siena College Research Institute Director, Thank you Don
Speaker 2: for the primer. As we get started on this debate day.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 6: Thirty good mistakes this evening are incredibly high, both for
Speaker 6: the former and incumbent president and as we look ahead
Speaker 6: to what Joe Biden needs to accomplish for Democrats at large. Tonight,
Speaker 6: we want to bring in Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger of Virginia,
Speaker 6: who is joining us now live from Capitol Hill. Happy
Speaker 6: debate day, Congresswoman. Always great to see you here on
Speaker 6: Bloomberg TV and radio. When we look at what Joe
Speaker 6: Biden needs to accomplish tonight. Is it so much about
Speaker 6: the policy or about how he performs and speaks about it.
Speaker 7: I think it's about the choice between two men who
Speaker 7: are putting themselves both forward as potential presidents. Again, it's
Speaker 7: a question of which former or current president do we
Speaker 7: the United States of America, the American people want to
Speaker 7: have at the helm of our country, and so yes,
Speaker 7: policy will be a part of it. Certainly, our rights
Speaker 7: and our freedoms, certainly are continued.
Speaker 8: Growth of the economy.
Speaker 7: But I think what it really comes down to is
Speaker 7: do we want to return to a time where under
Speaker 7: the former president, former President Trump, we had attacks on communities,
Speaker 7: we had a questionable situation on the global stage, we
Speaker 7: had a president who wanted to pull away from NATO.
Speaker 7: We had a president who was willing and aggressively move
Speaker 7: forward in pulling back people's rights from voting rights to
Speaker 7: abortion rights. Or do we want to have a president
Speaker 7: like the president we have now, President Biden, who as
Speaker 7: a person is committed to the progress of this country,
Speaker 7: growing our economy, continuing to lower unemployment, continuing our long
Speaker 7: term recovery out of COVID, Which of course, as you
Speaker 7: all well know, is the best in the developed world,
Speaker 7: protecting the rights and the freedoms of our fellow Americans,
Speaker 7: and importantly to me, as a former CIA officer and
Speaker 7: someone with a background in national security, protecting the role
Speaker 7: of American leadership on the global stage.
Speaker 2: That's a big picture of you. Congresswoman. Your view from
Speaker 2: Virginia's seventh Congressional district is so important because you straddle
Speaker 2: such a wide swath of ages and demographics. A lot
Speaker 2: of people say that inflation is the number one issue
Speaker 2: in this race. That's what people are talking about. But
Speaker 2: you just gave us a thirty thousand foot view that
Speaker 2: gives us a choice on the approach to democracy, on
Speaker 2: big picture themes. What are the people of Virginia than
Speaker 2: want to hear tonight?
Speaker 8: It's about the approach of how we fix problem.
Speaker 7: Certainly Virginia across the seventh district, the issue of costs
Speaker 7: in the grocery store continues to be an important one
Speaker 7: that I hear about all the time.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 7: And so it's a question of whose approach, whose policies,
Speaker 7: Who's committed to the American people and to working to
Speaker 7: continue to lower cost to working to continue to decrease inflation,
Speaker 7: ensure that you know, more people can buy a home
Speaker 7: or have an affordable rent, More people can have the
Speaker 7: ability to move between jobs, because not only is unemployment low,
Speaker 7: but options and good jobs are there and available to them.
Speaker 7: And notably, people can care about multiple things at one time.
Speaker 7: And so, yes, across the board, I hear about the
Speaker 7: issues of cost, I hear about the challenges you know
Speaker 7: that people are facing in our economy.
Speaker 8: And you know, small business owners.
Speaker 7: Low unemployment's good, but there's still challenges for small business owners.
Speaker 8: Trying to find workers.
Speaker 7: Right, there's always even when the news is good, there's challenges.
Speaker 8: For some folks.
Speaker 7: And so the question be comes, what are the issues
Speaker 7: that are most important to voters? Certainly costs among them,
Speaker 7: but also it's about approach. It's about which president and
Speaker 7: right now we have you know, current and a former
Speaker 7: is going to do the good work and the important
Speaker 7: work of moving us forward on the issues that matter
Speaker 7: to people.
Speaker 8: And certainly, you know, we hear.
Speaker 7: A lot of talk about issues of freedom and particularly
Speaker 7: abortion rights and access to IVF and contraception, because across
Speaker 7: my district and across Virginia, there are many people who
Speaker 7: care about more than one thing, and so certainly we
Speaker 7: need a president in this twenty twenty four election who
Speaker 7: is focused on addressing all of the concerns that people have,
Speaker 7: recognizing those that have the greatest immediacy, certainly, but also
Speaker 7: recognizing that, yes, part of this is about approach, how
Speaker 7: someone seeks to govern and how someone seeks to lead.
Speaker 6: Well, Congressoman, you have brought up the issue of abortion
Speaker 6: rates a few times, are ready in this conversation. We
Speaker 6: of course got news on that today from the Supreme Court,
Speaker 6: which at least for now is allowing emergency access to
Speaker 6: abortion to continue in Idaho, even if this ruling is
Speaker 6: more on procedural grounds than actually on the merits of
Speaker 6: the case. But this is now the second time, as
Speaker 6: we are at the end of this Court's term, that
Speaker 6: they have ruled in favor of protecting, at least for
Speaker 6: the time being, abortion rights. How should that change Joe
Speaker 6: Biden's messaging around that issue tonight.
Speaker 7: Well, I think it's important to understand what the ruling
Speaker 7: or this discussion is actually even about. The question is
Speaker 7: about whether I'm tala write a law put in place
Speaker 7: under President Reagan to ensure that someone who walks into
Speaker 7: a hospital with a life threatening illness would be able
Speaker 7: to get the healthcare access that they need. The decision
Speaker 7: today is whether or not, when a woman walks into
Speaker 7: a hospital potentially facing a life threatening complication to her pregnancy,
Speaker 7: whether it is appropriate and required or not against the
Speaker 7: law for a medical doctor to.
Speaker 8: Save her life.
Speaker 7: This wasn't a ruling that codifies abortion access. This isn't
Speaker 7: a ruling that does anything to advance the rights of women.
Speaker 7: This is a ruling that say doctors can't look at
Speaker 7: a woman and say you must die because of our
Speaker 7: state law.
Speaker 8: And so I don't think that.
Speaker 7: It should change much of Joe Biden's President Biden's positioning
Speaker 7: in the discussion of the debate. In fact of anything,
Speaker 7: I think it will make clear that we are one
Speaker 7: court decision away potentially from a doctor being able to
Speaker 7: look at a dying woman and say I'm sorry, I
Speaker 7: can't help you.
Speaker 2: Well, it's not lost on us Congresswoman that Donald Trump
Speaker 2: is going to make a bee line for your state
Speaker 2: after the debate. Tonight, He's on his way to Chesapeake, Virginia.
Speaker 2: He'll be speaking in that Norfolk area of awfully important
Speaker 2: area for electoral votes with Governor Glenn Youngkin. Virginia's coming
Speaker 2: to play a fascinating role in this campaign is maybe
Speaker 2: the purplest of states. I don't know how you'd describe
Speaker 2: its woman, But what does it tell you that Donald
Speaker 2: Trump is going to Virginia to give Glen Youngkin a
Speaker 2: hug tomorrow?
Speaker 7: So I think Virginia is a wonderful place and everyone
Speaker 7: should visit. So I certainly don't fault the former president
Speaker 7: to wanting to come to our great Commonwealth. But notably
Speaker 7: more of the question is why it is that our governor,
Speaker 7: who has previously never welcomed the president and in fact
Speaker 7: left the state the last time President Trump came to Virginia,
Speaker 7: is now going to be there to.
Speaker 8: As you say, give him a hug.
Speaker 9: Well.
Speaker 6: Congresswoman, though, just speaks more widely to this idea that
Speaker 6: the Trump campaign has been espousing that polling suggests they
Speaker 6: are competitive in the state of Virginia, they actually think
Speaker 6: that they could win it. Does Joe Biden need to
Speaker 6: be spending more time there himself? Should he add a
Speaker 6: list to the swing states he has been visiting frequently
Speaker 6: since Super Tuesday?
Speaker 7: So President Biden spends a fair amount of time in Virginia.
Speaker 7: He was in Virginia just maybe the month before last. Certainly,
Speaker 7: we have an incredible team on the ground working for
Speaker 7: the Biden campaign. And you know, certainly our own Senator
Speaker 7: Tim Kaine is up for reelection this year and barnstorming
Speaker 7: across the state as is, as are so many of
Speaker 7: our elected folks working in roles of surrogate. So I certainly,
Speaker 7: you know, if welcome President Biden to come to Virginia,
Speaker 7: but Virginia is not going to go for former President
Speaker 7: Trump in this election.
Speaker 8: I feel quite certain saying that.
Speaker 2: Congress Woman, with your background in national security and intelligence
Speaker 2: and from your perch on the Intelligence Committee, I wonder
Speaker 2: your thoughts as we watch Evan Gershkevich's trial begin in
Speaker 2: Russia this week. It's a story we were talking about
Speaker 2: quite a bit earlier in the week. Yesterday was the
Speaker 2: start of that trial. What would a President Trump mean
Speaker 2: for his detention?
Speaker 7: First, I wanted to just begin by recognizing the incredible
Speaker 7: sacrifice that members of the media, particularly those who travel
Speaker 7: to tell stories into countries where the media is not
Speaker 7: just disrespected, but is targeted and is arrested and is imprisoned,
Speaker 7: as we have seen.
Speaker 8: In this case in Russia.
Speaker 7: I think that it would be deeply worrisome from my perspective,
Speaker 7: but I think it's one that is far more broadly
Speaker 7: held if President former President Trump were to again enter
Speaker 7: the White House.
Speaker 8: For two reasons.
Speaker 7: One, he has always taken the side of Vladimir Putin
Speaker 7: over our own intelligence agencies, over our own experts. He
Speaker 7: has spoken in defense of an authoritarian regime.
Speaker 8: And notably, he at.
Speaker 7: Home, has done a great deal to degrade, to demean,
Speaker 7: and to target the press and the media for doing
Speaker 7: the job that is theirs to do. They are supposed
Speaker 7: to be critical of us elected leaders. You all are
Speaker 7: supposed to hold us to account. And so I think
Speaker 7: a president who seeks to be more or like a
Speaker 7: couton here at home would do very very little to
Speaker 7: defend an American who, in pursuit of telling the truth,
Speaker 7: in pursuit of reporting back is congress Woman.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Abigail Spanberger with the View from Virginia.
Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 6: Taking you from New York with Charlie Pellett to here
Speaker 6: in Washington with me and Joe down to Atlanta today
Speaker 6: as we preview less than eight hours from now the
Speaker 6: first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It
Speaker 6: is an incredibly high stakes evening for both campaigns, and
Speaker 6: it's worth noting this will be Donald Trump back in
Speaker 6: Georgia after getting indicted in that state many months ago. Joe,
Speaker 6: of course, there is not and the prevailing thinking right
Speaker 6: now that he will end up going to trial in
Speaker 6: that racketeering case that was brought against him there. But
Speaker 6: of course this is going to be an appearance by
Speaker 6: the former president after being a convicted felon in a
Speaker 6: separate criminal case in New York. The thing is pulling
Speaker 6: out within the last twenty four hours suggests that that
Speaker 6: conviction doesn't matter much at all.
Speaker 10: Yes, we head into the season.
Speaker 2: Isn't this something We've heard this anecdotally. Sienna puts numbers
Speaker 2: on it today in front of The New York Times.
Speaker 2: We talked to Don Levy about it earlier in the program.
Speaker 2: More than two thirds of voters in this poll, first
Speaker 2: time SIENA poll since the trial ended, say the outcome
Speaker 2: of his criminal case made no difference to their vote
Speaker 2: two thirds. In fact, some Republicans were more likely to
Speaker 2: support him. It's different than conventional wisdom might suggest. Another
Speaker 2: interesting number I'll throw at you, Quinnipiac. You wonder who
Speaker 2: the heck's going to watch this thing tonight? Seven to
Speaker 2: ten registered voters say they will be watching, which would
Speaker 2: make this among the highest rated things to ever happen
Speaker 2: on television. Of course, we'll have it here for you
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Let's assemble our panel. As Kaylee said, We've
Speaker 2: put together a great one for you today. Rick Davis
Speaker 2: is with US Republican strategist of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor,
Speaker 2: joined by Joel Rubin, Democratic strategist, former Deputy Assistant Secretary
Speaker 2: of State of the Obama administration. It's great to see
Speaker 2: both of you here. Rick, You've prepared candidates for debates
Speaker 2: just like this one. Obviously they're presumptive nominees. In this case,
Speaker 2: it's a little different. It's coming pretty early, but the
Speaker 2: stakes are arguably higher if there's an audience like this.
Speaker 2: Quinnipiac poll suggests seven and ten. We cannot underscore the
Speaker 2: impact this could have on the campaign. How are you
Speaker 2: looking at it?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that this was a real gamble.
Speaker 12: I think to forego the Commission on Debates and try this,
Speaker 12: you know, one CNN debate as a test to see.
Speaker 11: Whether or not people would tune in.
Speaker 12: Certainly the polling data indicates that they likely will, and
Speaker 12: we know that historically high debates for like eighty you know,
Speaker 12: eighty four million people tuning into view and that will
Speaker 12: be dwarfed. I'm sure by the follow on social media
Speaker 12: clips that people will view that happened the night before.
Speaker 11: So I think we can press assured.
Speaker 12: Based on what we know today, this is going to
Speaker 12: be something that voters are looking into because they're curious
Speaker 12: about what's going on with these two guys forty five
Speaker 12: versus forty six. You know, two presidents have never debated
Speaker 12: like this in a modern era, and so it's the
Speaker 12: kind of thing I think is as much a curiosity
Speaker 12: as it is a determining factor, because the reality is
Speaker 12: the country is divided very equally, and we're really talking
Speaker 12: about a few percentage points that are really up for
Speaker 12: grabs right now, and those are the folks that probably
Speaker 12: have the greatest stake in watching this debate.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we're talking about a race divided for by a
Speaker 6: few percentage points. If the latest polling is to believe.
Speaker 6: New York Times Sienna has the spread between Trump and
Speaker 6: Biden three points. Trump, of course is leading. His lead
Speaker 6: is even greater with registered voters. Nothing else interesting though,
Speaker 6: in this poll Joe Joel is that only seventy two
Speaker 6: percent of voters who said they voted for Biden four
Speaker 6: years ago approve of the job he is doing as president.
Speaker 6: This is ninety percent of Republicans say they view Donald
Speaker 6: Trump favorably. It does seem that Trump has had much
Speaker 6: more success in consolidating his base of support than Joe
Speaker 6: Biden at this point. How does he reassemble the twenty
Speaker 6: twenty coalition this time around? How can he advance that
Speaker 6: effort further.
Speaker 9: Tonight, Kaylee, This is the question that the campaign is
Speaker 9: grappling with every day, and it's the kind of discussion
Speaker 9: that feel very confident that they're going to be able
Speaker 9: to execute in terms of making the case. Look, Joe
Speaker 9: Biden has been running the country for the last three
Speaker 9: and a half years. Donald Trump has been in and
Speaker 9: out of court and spending a lot of time on
Speaker 9: social media and doing things to get his base fired up.
Speaker 9: He did was that he should say twenty percent on
Speaker 9: a consistent basis in the recent primary. So I'm not
Speaker 9: sure about that ninety percent. But President Biden, he likes
Speaker 9: to say that, don't compare me to the almighty, compare
Speaker 9: me to the alternative, and the alternative will be on
Speaker 9: full display tonight, and that's going to really remind Democrats, who,
Speaker 9: you know, we're kind of a little bit behind the
Speaker 9: motivation factor when we see our guy in the White House.
Speaker 9: It's going to remind us about what's at stake in
Speaker 9: this election, and a lot is at stake. Fundamental freedoms
Speaker 9: for women, for LGBTQ Americans, a question of confidence, a
Speaker 9: question of integrity, all of these issues that motivated Democrats
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty. They're going to come right back to
Speaker 9: the fore and I think you're going to see a
Speaker 9: real big jump in that motivation going forward from tonight.
Speaker 2: Rick, these two gentlemen are going to be in people's
Speaker 2: living rooms tonight. If at least this goes well, that's
Speaker 2: what they're hoping for. We keep talking about temper and
Speaker 2: flare ups, people acting crazy. To the extent that you've
Speaker 2: spent time with candidates experience the nerves that preceded an
Speaker 2: event like this. How important is a sense of humor?
Speaker 11: Oh?
Speaker 12: I think it's critical at least just to cut the
Speaker 12: very stiff air that exists, especially.
Speaker 11: Right before the debate.
Speaker 12: I mean, I like to put myself, you know, in
Speaker 12: the timetable, and tonight, both these candids are going to
Speaker 12: sit down with a very select group of people to
Speaker 12: have dinner.
Speaker 11: It's late enough in this debate. They're going to want
Speaker 11: to eat first.
Speaker 12: And the most important thing that I found in the past,
Speaker 12: whether it was for John McCain or George Bush or
Speaker 12: Bob Dohole or any of these candidates that had big
Speaker 12: debates in their lifetime, was to break the sort of
Speaker 12: tension in the room and have some fun. I remember
Speaker 12: when Lindsey Graham showed up at a presidential debate wearing
Speaker 12: a John McCain rubber mask, and you know, basically went
Speaker 12: on to pretend to be in the debate tonight and
Speaker 12: told John that look, if there was anything going wrong
Speaker 12: with him, he'd be happy to step in with the.
Speaker 11: Rubber masks that night.
Speaker 12: And so you know, you just got to have somebody
Speaker 12: just change the topic a little bit to get these
Speaker 12: guys relaxed, because, as we've talked, it's a tense moment
Speaker 12: for anybody, and this is one that will it will
Speaker 12: be tense for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: So it will be tense, just as all presidential debates are.
Speaker 6: But as we've mentioned, there are many things that are
Speaker 6: making this particular presidential debate different, not only the Commission's
Speaker 6: lack of involvement, but the rules of engagement here with
Speaker 6: the cutting off of microphones, with the lack of a
Speaker 6: live audience, also with the fact that it's taking place
Speaker 6: in not only a swing state, but a state in
Speaker 6: which one of the candidates on the stage has been
Speaker 6: indicted on multiple felonies in the case related to twenty
Speaker 6: twenty election of subversion, the racketeering case that was brought
Speaker 6: against Trump and many other defendants. Of course, what went
Speaker 6: down in Georgia has made Donald Trump a few enemies,
Speaker 6: even within his own party, or at least those who
Speaker 6: aren't eager to vote for him, including the Governor of Georgia,
Speaker 6: Brian Kemp, who had this to say on CNN Line
Speaker 6: last night.
Speaker 2: In the Georgia promer, I didn't vote for anybody. I'll voted,
Speaker 2: but I didn't vote for anybody. I mean, the race
Speaker 2: was already over when the primary got here.
Speaker 8: But you didn't vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: I'd vote for anybody.
Speaker 11: Why not because the race is over with.
Speaker 6: He didn't vote for anyone, Okay, but he definitely decidedly
Speaker 6: did not vote for Donald Trump. Joel, I would love
Speaker 6: to have you weigh in on this, considering what happened
Speaker 6: in Georgia in twenty twenty everything in the aftermath, how
Speaker 6: we should be thinking about the state of Georgia for
Speaker 6: Trump and Biden in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 9: Yeah, Kaylee, I mean, I think Donald Trump's already been
Speaker 9: fingerprinted down in Georgia, so maybe he doesn't have to
Speaker 9: worry about getting hauled in again. Look what Brian the
Speaker 9: governor who won convincingly against Donald Trump endorsement or our tacks,
Speaker 9: I should say, he basically demonstrated the lingering resentment within
Speaker 9: Republican leadership and within many Republicans around the county towards
Speaker 9: Donald Trump's actions in that election. And look, he's not alone.
Speaker 9: Many people who closely advised and worked for Donald Trump
Speaker 9: up to his vice president, have said he's not fit
Speaker 9: for office, have said he should never be near the
Speaker 9: oval office again, have said that he tried to overthrow
Speaker 9: a democracy. The Secretary of Defense who served for him,
Speaker 9: Mark Esper, said that he tried to use or wanted
Speaker 9: to use the military to overturn the election results. So
Speaker 9: I'm glad that Brian Kemp is loyal to the American constitution.
Speaker 9: I think that Americans will see President Biden is loyal
Speaker 9: to the American constitution. I'm confident that the moderators will
Speaker 9: ask about whether or not Donald Trump will accept the results,
Speaker 9: and he, when asked in twenty twenty, basically said no
Speaker 9: and implied that he was going to have the Proud
Speaker 9: Boys in white supremacist group take action if necessary. And
Speaker 9: this is a man won't last thing. I should mention
Speaker 9: who said that he would only be a dictator on
Speaker 9: day one. Those are the of if he wins again,
Speaker 9: those are the kinds of stakes that we're looking at.
Speaker 9: Brian Kemp didn't like it that President Trump tried to
Speaker 9: undermine the will of his voters in Georgia and steal
Speaker 9: that election, and clearly that has not been repaired.
Speaker 2: Something tells me. You'll hear that line tonight, Rick, we've
Speaker 2: only got a minute left. What do you tell your
Speaker 2: candidate about how to deal with the moderator or in
Speaker 2: tonight's case, the moderators.
Speaker 12: Well, they're gonna have two totally different approaches tonight, right,
Speaker 12: Joe Biden is gonna be very solicitous of the moderators.
Speaker 12: He's going to ask for extra you know, like did
Speaker 12: I use up all my time?
Speaker 11: Can I?
Speaker 12: He's like a boy scout. He wants to play by
Speaker 12: the rules. And that's what we saw in the two
Speaker 12: debates before with Donald Trump. Donald Trump will abuse the moderators.
Speaker 12: He'll look for every opportunity to make the case that
Speaker 12: this is three on one and throughout the MAGA world.
Speaker 12: This debate is not a debate between him and Joe Biden,
Speaker 12: but him against Joe Biden and the two CNN moderators.
Speaker 12: And so he'll make good use of them as a foil.
Speaker 12: And I think that that's part of the temperament issue
Speaker 12: that he's got a judge just to you know just
Speaker 12: how negative is he going to come out? But you know,
Speaker 12: he'll he'll definitely treat them differently than Joe Biden's going.
Speaker 8: To all right.
Speaker 6: Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategists, and Joel Rubin,
Speaker 6: former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under President Obama and
Speaker 6: Democratic strategists. Thank you both so much for joining us
Speaker 6: on this debate day.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: We're live from Washington with it I on Atlanta, Kaylee.
Speaker 2: The big game starts tonight, the debate at nine pm
Speaker 2: Eastern Time. Our special coverage will start at eight. But
Speaker 2: the President is on his way there now. He's left
Speaker 2: Camp David on his way to Atlanta. Donald Trump and
Speaker 2: Joe Biden on stage for the first time in four
Speaker 2: years in this Sienna College pol we've been talking about
Speaker 2: with The New York Times for the remarkable statistic Rick
Speaker 2: Davis mentioned it a short time ago. Sixty percent of
Speaker 2: registered voters think mister Trump will perform very or somewhat
Speaker 2: well in the matchup forty six percent, the same about
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. So that's where the bar is set for
Speaker 2: the many people at home tonight.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and arguably Donald Trump had a hand in setting
Speaker 6: that bar low for Joe Biden, as he'd has repeatedly
Speaker 6: challenged him to debate him any time, anywhere, any place,
Speaker 6: now seems to be trying to lower the bar for
Speaker 6: himself in return, talking about how the moderators and CNN,
Speaker 6: which of course is the network hosting the debate, could
Speaker 6: be rigged against him. But what it all speaks to
Speaker 6: Joe is that the stakes tonight are incredibly high, and
Speaker 6: who was perceived to have the better performance potentially could
Speaker 6: get ahead in an election that we know is going
Speaker 6: to be incredibly close and potentially incredibly volatile. And that's
Speaker 6: why markets will be watching it very carefully, especially if
Speaker 6: we get specific policy outlined by these candidates tonight. So
Speaker 6: here with a closer look at what's it's for the
Speaker 6: markets and how markets are positioned ahead of tonight's event
Speaker 6: is Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail Dolittle. He was joining us
Speaker 6: now from New York. So, Abigail, where are we likely
Speaker 6: to see the market reaction depending on how tonight goes.
Speaker 13: What's really interesting, Kaylee. Right now, relative to current markets,
Speaker 13: we're not seeing too much of a reaction at all.
Speaker 13: And this is interesting only because something that we know
Speaker 13: about markets investors they love certainty. Another way of saying
Speaker 13: that is that markets hate uncertainty, and we clearly have
Speaker 13: this big unknown in November. So if we go out
Speaker 13: to October and November, they're the uncertainty. The fear is showing,
Speaker 13: and that's showing in something called the VIS that's an
Speaker 13: index that measures a volatility of the markets. It is
Speaker 13: heightened right now at a seventeen to eighteen level, but
Speaker 13: right now, going into this debate, it's at a twelve.
Speaker 13: We have Bitcoin that's seen as another tell on volatility,
Speaker 13: risk on risk off. It's above an important support level
Speaker 13: above sixty. So going into the debate, investors seem relatively
Speaker 13: but as you mentioned, anything is possible. You were talking
Speaker 13: with Joe about the idea that former President Donald Trump
Speaker 13: that folks out there in the world sixty percent think
Speaker 13: that he might have a better performance. But the truth
Speaker 13: of the matter is we really don't know. I mean,
Speaker 13: maybe that mute button saves him in some ways. Because
Speaker 13: he has a little bit.
Speaker 8: Of a wild card.
Speaker 13: There is of course fear that President Biden may have
Speaker 13: some problems around coherency and that sort of thing. But
Speaker 13: if it turns into a make or break moment for
Speaker 13: either of these presidents presidential candidates, it means that the
Speaker 13: relatively narrow gap five to six percent with former President
Speaker 13: Trump in the lead could widen. Now, on the one hand,
Speaker 13: you would think that would provide certainty, but I think
Speaker 13: in this particular election year, I think that any sort
Speaker 13: of big volatile moment tonight that's going to probably bring
Speaker 13: that VIX and volatility expectations even higher.
Speaker 2: Well, it would be incredible to put numbers on it.
Speaker 2: And you always compelled by the conventional wisdom, Abigail, that
Speaker 2: the Republican in this case, Donald Trump is better for
Speaker 2: the markets than the Democrat here Joe Biden, who's seen
Speaker 2: what more than thirty all time highs for the S
Speaker 2: and P five hundred this year. The fact is, when
Speaker 2: you look at history, it shows us the markets by
Speaker 2: a small margin, but the markets actually tend to outperform
Speaker 2: under democratic administrations. Does Wall Street care about history in
Speaker 2: this case?
Speaker 13: It's interesting you're saying that because I was about to
Speaker 13: mention that that typically the markets do and again by
Speaker 13: a small margin, outperform under Democratic presidents. You know, something
Speaker 13: to think about here is it's not just the presidential
Speaker 13: election in the fall. It's also going to be the
Speaker 13: narrowly controlled Senate by the Democrats right now, and the
Speaker 13: Republicans have that narrow lead in the House. What investors
Speaker 13: would really like to see is one party controlling. All
Speaker 13: you and Kelly were mentioning the possibility of policy changes.
Speaker 13: Something that's really up for grab grabs is tax policy.
Speaker 13: We simply don't have enough information right now. But the
Speaker 13: Tax Cut and Jobs Act that was passed back in
Speaker 13: twenty seventeen, it expires next year. If it expires and
Speaker 13: nothing new is put in, corporate tax rates could go
Speaker 13: up thirty five percent. I believe that the Democrats, that
Speaker 13: the Biden administration has even floated the idea of a
Speaker 13: twenty percent twenty eight percent hike on the expiration, the
Speaker 13: Republicans looking at something like fifteen percent. Interestingly, and this
Speaker 13: made in some way support the idea that investors do
Speaker 13: like President Trump former President Trump just a bit better.
Speaker 13: The most highly taxed on an absolute basis, companies they're
Speaker 13: doing just fine this year and frankly for a couple
Speaker 13: of years, Apple, Berkshire, Hathaway, Microsoft and Exon. It's also,
Speaker 13: of course we have DJT, Donald Trump's own personal stock
Speaker 13: in a way of his media company up forty percent
Speaker 13: this week, so that seems to support some of the
Speaker 13: statistics that the both of you are talking about.
Speaker 2: This is great, great set up, Abigail, Thank you, Abigail
Speaker 2: do little Bloomberg Markets correspondent with US live from New
Speaker 2: York as we carry on from Washington with Balance of
Speaker 2: Power and add the voice of Andy Blocker. Been looking
Speaker 2: forward to this conversation from Investco, where he's global head
Speaker 2: of Public Policy and Strategic Partnerships. Andy, welcome to the table.
Speaker 2: It's great to say you today. I suspect you've got
Speaker 2: your watch party. What do you make of this though?
Speaker 2: What do the markets? What does the so called investor,
Speaker 2: of course not a monolith, think of this democrat and
Speaker 2: this Republican tonight? Is it a wash for Wall Street?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 10: I think generally speaking it is more of a wash
Speaker 10: if you look at it from a macro perspective. I mean,
Speaker 10: we've got to report out that basically says it doesn't
Speaker 10: make a difference. Do not do your investing based on
Speaker 10: who's presidence or Republican or Democrat. So we did a
Speaker 10: study that showed, you know, for the last one hundred years,
Speaker 10: if you just only were invested with Republicans, you would
Speaker 10: be this much, only Democrats this much, stay invested this much.
Speaker 10: So the question is where you're invested, not whether you're invested.
Speaker 6: Okay, but there's arguably a few things that could change
Speaker 6: that depending on who was president. For example, Donald Trump
Speaker 6: has floated the idea of tariffing everything coming from China
Speaker 6: at a sixty percent rate, which everyone we've spoken to,
Speaker 6: economists and otherwise have suggested effectively cuts off the trading
Speaker 6: relationship between the two largest economies in the world. Wouldn't
Speaker 6: that fundamentally shift what the investment outlook looks like when
Speaker 6: we're talking about policy this extreme.
Speaker 10: So that goes to what I said, it's specifically where
Speaker 10: you're invested in what so So tariffs are inflationary, So
Speaker 10: sixty percent with China inflationary, the ten percent across the
Speaker 10: board for every country of inflationary. But we really in
Speaker 10: the markets right now are looking at as an opening bid.
Speaker 10: We don't really think that any of these tariffs are
Speaker 10: going to be implemented at that level. They may be
Speaker 10: implemented less depending on what country, but he's going to
Speaker 10: do things country by country and see what we can
Speaker 10: get for that. Hey, you want your ten percent, or
Speaker 10: do you want to give us something over here that
Speaker 10: we want? Same thing with China. So I think to
Speaker 10: the extent that it becomes more real that we believe
Speaker 10: sixty percent would actually be implemented, that would have a
Speaker 10: major impact on the market, especially in the early day.
Speaker 10: So you're going to see a lot of volatility in
Speaker 10: the beginning and it could have an impact until it
Speaker 10: settles out.
Speaker 2: It's a great old saying on Wall Street, gridlock is
Speaker 2: good when it comes to Washington. I wonder our investor's
Speaker 2: less concerned about whether it's a D or an R
Speaker 2: in the White House, but more concerned that there's balance
Speaker 2: of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Speaker 5: Joe.
Speaker 10: I think that's a great point. I think we love
Speaker 10: split government in the markets because it really lowers the
Speaker 10: bidass spread of how far left or right you can go.
Speaker 10: It keeps you in the center and things there where
Speaker 10: there's a consensus, and that's where it's more predictable for us,
Speaker 10: and it leads us out from major policy changes.
Speaker 6: Okay, so arguably what we're all expecting, at least at
Speaker 6: this time, it seems that you're looking at a Senate
Speaker 6: that may flip red, a House that has the potential
Speaker 6: to flip blue, which means twenty twenty five from a
Speaker 6: tax policy perspective, could get really, really messy because, as
Speaker 6: Abigail was just talking about the twenty seventeen tax cuts,
Speaker 6: at least a large part of them are going to
Speaker 6: expire this year, potentially could impact the economic outlook if
Speaker 6: they do so, if they're held, obviously that has implications
Speaker 6: for the deficit and the long term trajectory of that.
Speaker 6: How do you look at the short term versus long
Speaker 6: term effects of those kind of decisions?
Speaker 10: So, Kaylee, that's the question. In a split government, how
Speaker 10: do they negotiate that out. I think if if it's
Speaker 10: a Biden presidency, because the individual tax cuts expire, he's
Speaker 10: gonna have a little bit of leverage to get some
Speaker 10: of what he wants from a split congress. For for
Speaker 10: for Trump, I think his ambitions of lowering everything may
Speaker 10: go away. So I think if you're looking at Biden's proposals.
Speaker 10: I think four hundred thousand and above you're gonna you're
Speaker 10: gonna either you're gonna pay more taxes. The question is
Speaker 10: what under four inun thousand. I think it'd be protected
Speaker 10: corporate tax. That's gonna be a negotiation. I don't think
Speaker 10: they're gonna go up to the twenty eight percent that
Speaker 10: Biden wants to. You may have to compromise on that.
Speaker 10: So from our perspective, the tax policy I think is
Speaker 10: gonna be somewhere in the middle. You're not gonna, we
Speaker 10: think split governments where we're headed now. If we don't
Speaker 10: have split government, that's where it gets very interesting.
Speaker 2: That's where things gonna actually change. I know you're not
Speaker 2: a market strategist, you're a policy gun. But with that said,
Speaker 2: when you back off and look at the markets, the
Speaker 2: last couple of presidencies and maybe where they're going, here
Speaker 2: are both of these guys lucky to be here When
Speaker 2: we look at this period of time, we're in a
Speaker 2: generational rally, a generational advance in the stock market. It's
Speaker 2: not a bad time to be here and take credit
Speaker 2: for it, is it?
Speaker 11: No?
Speaker 10: No, you're absolutely right, and I hope We're not just
Speaker 10: lucky to be here. Hope it continues, but no, I
Speaker 10: think the markets have really been resilient regardless of what
Speaker 10: the policies have been. There may be volatility at times
Speaker 10: to adjust to what the new norm is, but new innovation,
Speaker 10: you know, US is driving most of that with our innovative,
Speaker 10: entrepreneurial spirit.
Speaker 6: So the US may have the companies and the innovation
Speaker 6: and be you know, leading in terms of equity markets
Speaker 6: around the world, but the US also historically is just
Speaker 6: a leader in the world in terms of democracy. And
Speaker 6: Joe Biden is very much trying to make this election
Speaker 6: about the future of that democracy and the way that
Speaker 6: the US is going to be able to lead other
Speaker 6: democracies in the future. How should we think about the
Speaker 6: geopolitical element to what will go down tonight. Well, we'll
Speaker 6: hear from these candidates, but what this election means for
Speaker 6: the United States is standing in the global order.
Speaker 10: So I think when I when I talk to clients
Speaker 10: in Asia or Europe, there's a much more acute concern
Speaker 10: about that. In the US, it's split. I mean, if
Speaker 10: you look at a polling, just as many people who
Speaker 10: favored Trump are concerned about Biden's effect on democracy as
Speaker 10: the other way around, but overseas it's really tilted towards
Speaker 10: the concern about the ongoing democratic state and leading the
Speaker 10: world amongst our allies. So look, I think clearly amongst
Speaker 10: our allies, I think there's a preference for Biden. But
Speaker 10: in the US, I think when we looked at it,
Speaker 10: we really didn't see a difference with respect to Trump
Speaker 10: may be more radical in it's talking, but you kind
Speaker 10: of end up closer together with respect to policy. If
Speaker 10: I talk about tail risk, that's a whole nother thing,
Speaker 10: But we're looking at We're looking at the most likely
Speaker 10: risks at this time.
Speaker 2: This is a real reality check, you know, with a
Speaker 2: lot of the white stuff that you hear in anticipation
Speaker 2: of a change in power. The market view is important
Speaker 2: to us. Does it become potentially more volatile or a
Speaker 2: higher risk, for instance, for commodities you talk about oil prices, metals, copper,
Speaker 2: Some of the things that we do see sometimes turn
Speaker 2: on a dime.
Speaker 10: No, it does. But what we found is that well
Speaker 10: in our report that we released on the impact of
Speaker 10: the policies on the markets, the interesting thing we saw
Speaker 10: was that with Biden, oil companies did great, but under Trump,
Speaker 10: you know, alternative fuels did great, and partly that's because
Speaker 10: of other externalities, Like so you had the Russia Ukraine War. Sure,
Speaker 10: that's why those companies. Oil companies did well under Biden.
Speaker 10: So you have to mix it in with other things
Speaker 10: that are impacting the market. So it's not just all policy,
Speaker 10: even though policy is a factor.
Speaker 6: Well, speaking of other things that are impacting the market, obviously,
Speaker 6: FED policy could be hugely consequential. Consequential not just in
Speaker 6: terms of potentially helping decide the outcome of the selection,
Speaker 6: whether or not we get a rate cut, but also
Speaker 6: what happens to the independence of the Federal Reserve after
Speaker 6: the fact. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump and Biden
Speaker 6: both got a question about the FED in the debate tonight. Potentially,
Speaker 6: how should we be considering how whose president might influence
Speaker 6: the trajectory of monetary policy going forward.
Speaker 10: So look, I think if it's Biden, I think it's
Speaker 10: steady state at least on the surface. Allow them to
Speaker 10: be independent, even though you may be trying to influence
Speaker 10: in other ways. Whereas Trump is going to be pretty straightforward,
Speaker 10: He's going to be pretty aggressive he's said that he's
Speaker 10: going to you know, change the way that works, but
Speaker 10: he'll definitely browbeat the FED chair if he's there, which
Speaker 10: can you know, potentially lower rates faster than they otherwise
Speaker 10: would come down.
Speaker 6: All right, Andy Blocker, Global Head of Public Policy and
Speaker 6: Strategic Partnerships at Invesco, Thank you so much for joining
Speaker 6: us here inter Washington, d C Studio on what is
Speaker 6: Debate date.
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