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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: On this debate day, we're finally here, the twenty seventh

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Speaker 2: of June. We're told the most important day of the

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Speaker 2: presidential campaign. Yet maybe we'll look back and call it

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Speaker 2: the most pivotal day of the campaign in total. I

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Speaker 2: was just talking to my friend John coming into the

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Speaker 2: studio today. He said, I'd rather watch the Golden Girls,

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Speaker 2: at least they're funny. But new numbers from Quinnipiac tell

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Speaker 2: you otherwise. This is going to be a show tonight.

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Speaker 2: Quinnipiac national poll of registered voters seven to ten. Seventy

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Speaker 2: three percent say it is likely they will watch this

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Speaker 2: debate tonight. Twenty five percent have other plans. That's pretty good.

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Speaker 2: That's like Oscar's numbers, right. This could be the super

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Speaker 2: Bowl of politics once again in Atlanta. Joe Biden, Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump on stage for the first time in four years.

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Speaker 2: And you know the deal with the rules. Yeah, they're

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Speaker 2: gonna cut off the mic when the time is up.

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Speaker 2: But this is going to be a fascinating thing to see.

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Speaker 2: It's in the studio, of course, without the audience, where

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Speaker 2: the two candidates will be, and then all heck breaks

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Speaker 2: loose after in the spin room when the surrogates come

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Speaker 2: in and they talk to the journalists and you know what,

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Speaker 2: David gour is already in there. I love this, starting

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Speaker 2: early in Atlanta, reporting for Bloomberg of course, the host

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Speaker 2: of the Big Take podcast. But he's all ours today, David,

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Speaker 2: how are things looking so far?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's cool in here, which may be one of

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Speaker 3: the driving reasons why I've come inside. It's great to

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Speaker 3: speak with you, Joe, of course, And yeah, we're very

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Speaker 3: curious how all of this unfolds. The head of the

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Speaker 3: network that is putting on this debate has said quite

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Speaker 3: frankly that he wants to harken back to something that

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Speaker 3: we saw in nineteen sixty, that is the debate between

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Speaker 3: JFK and Richard Nixon, that first TV debate. Wants to

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Speaker 3: pare it back and not have the audience, not have

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Speaker 3: any of that artifice. We'll see how that works. We'll

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Speaker 3: see how these two candidates do with that kind of setting.

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Speaker 3: I think what's prompting a lot of the curiosity that

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Speaker 3: you're describing numbers that might even be better than the

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Speaker 3: Oscars or the super Bowl, is just seeing how these

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Speaker 3: two candidates navigate that, what they're going to look like

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Speaker 3: on stage independently and with each other, and how they

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Speaker 3: interact with the moderators of this debate. It is a

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Speaker 3: curiosity and a curiosity, of course, Joe. That's coming a

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Speaker 3: few months earlier than the most cycles. We're having this

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Speaker 3: debate before we get to the political conventions, which is

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Speaker 3: also novel in itself.

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Speaker 2: It is novel, and you wonder what we'll think about

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Speaker 2: this by the time we get to potentially a second debate,

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Speaker 2: as they've scheduled in September. David, you know, I love

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Speaker 2: to go to ground when you get on the road

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Speaker 2: in a case like this, tell us what it's like.

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming you've got media from around the world there tonight,

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Speaker 2: and will you have ven you to talk to surrogates

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Speaker 2: in the spin room later.

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Speaker 3: They'll be here. We're looking forward to talking to them

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Speaker 3: and we'll see who shows up and who is carrying

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Speaker 3: the flag for both of these candidates right now, it's

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Speaker 3: fairly quiet, and I will say one of the weirder

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Speaker 3: facets of this is by virtue of the fact that

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Speaker 3: the debate is taking place at CNN studios some remove

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Speaker 3: from here, it does feel like there is a wider

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Speaker 3: geographic distance than perhaps there is. We're not sort of

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Speaker 3: interfacing a lot with the teams that are surrounding these

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Speaker 3: two candidates, I should say, Joe Biden and Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: arriving in town a little bit later this afternoon. But

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Speaker 3: everyone with whom I've spoken knows this is happening is

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Speaker 3: complaining about the traffic that's already started to slow down

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Speaker 3: across the city. So it is certainly central, both geographically

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Speaker 3: and on the mines of most at Lantin's here today.

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Speaker 2: The President arrives two fifteen pm Dobbin's Air Reserve Base.

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Speaker 2: According to his schedule, hees going straight from Camp David

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Speaker 2: to Atlanta, Georgia today. David, are we going to see

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Speaker 2: the traditional walk through or do we not see the

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Speaker 2: president and former president until the lights go on at

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Speaker 2: nine o'clock tonight.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that there's anything on the schedule up

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Speaker 3: until that point, and we are kind of watching to

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Speaker 3: see what they do after this debate concludes, both in

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Speaker 3: the hours after in the days to come. So there

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Speaker 3: are watch parties throughout the city that are also fundraisers

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Speaker 3: for these two candidates. Donald Trump expected to go to

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Speaker 3: one at Kelly Luffler's house, she of course, the former

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Speaker 3: senator from Georgia. And at that event we talked about

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Speaker 3: the surrogates just a moment ago. Many of those surrogates

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Speaker 3: who are also this group of finalists for the VP

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Speaker 3: nomination for Donald Trump, expected to be at that party

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Speaker 3: as well. And then Joe Biden likely to go to

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Speaker 3: a party of his supporting plant as well. Before they

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Speaker 3: hit the road. And where are they going to go to?

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Speaker 3: They're going to go to swing states here in the South,

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden going to North Carolina obviously has been a

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Speaker 3: purplish or purple trending state in recent election cycles. Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump going to Virginia to speak to his supporters there tomorrow,

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Speaker 3: and then the President Joe Biden going to the northeast

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Speaker 3: to the Hampton's and to New We're to do some

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Speaker 3: high dollar fundraising on the heels of this. So, as

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Speaker 3: you know, Joe, the event itself always exciting and telegraphs

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Speaker 3: so much, and then we kind of see how that

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Speaker 3: kind of changes or alters the message that these candidates

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Speaker 3: are going to give and the run up to those

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Speaker 3: conventions that of course the general election November.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's remarkable. They're not technically they're party's formal nominees.

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Speaker 2: But here we are tonight, David Goura, you're in for

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Speaker 2: a day. I'm really glad you're there, and we thank you.

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Speaker 2: We'll catch up a little bit later on here on

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Speaker 2: Balance of Power on the late edition, and then in

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Speaker 2: our special coverage tonight, David's going to help us shepherd

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Speaker 2: our way through this whole thing, starting at eight pm

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Speaker 2: Eastern time here on Bloomberg TV and radio on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: where you can search Bloomberg Global News and find us.

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Speaker 2: We'll have a great panel for you. Rick Davis and

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Speaker 2: Kristen Hahn will be here for the pregame and the

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Speaker 2: post debate analysis. You don't need to go anywhere else

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Speaker 2: but right here on Bloomberg for all of this. With

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Speaker 2: the big curtain raiser courtesy our friend Don Levy at

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Speaker 2: Siena College. More than two thirds of voters said the

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Speaker 2: outcome of Donald Trump's criminal case in Manhattan made no

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Speaker 2: difference to their vote. As we step into this debate tonight,

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Speaker 2: the head to head result of the survey forty four percent.

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Speaker 2: Mister Trump with his biggest lead in the Siena poll.

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Speaker 2: Glad to say Don Levy is back with us. He

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Speaker 2: runs the research institute at Siena College. This is the

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Speaker 2: poll on the front page of the New York Times today.

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Speaker 2: Don his biggest point margin when calculated before figures are

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Speaker 2: round it to be exact here, mister Trump's lead with

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Speaker 2: registered voters was an even larger six percentage points. How

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Speaker 2: do you rationalize that after so much noise in his campaign.

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Speaker 4: Well, we see a lot of movement in the campaign

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Speaker 4: right now amongst a couple of groups, most especially independents.

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Speaker 4: Trump picked up about three points over our poll in

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Speaker 4: April amongst independents, and actually he closed a gap with.

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Speaker 5: Women to a certain degree.

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Speaker 4: Women is a constituency that President Biden certainly needs to

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Speaker 4: carry and carry strongly, and that move from a double

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Speaker 4: digitally down to only about six points amongst women. So

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Speaker 4: we see some movement across the electorate, but we continue

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Speaker 4: to focus to a great deal on a group of

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Speaker 4: people that we call the double haters. And I think

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Speaker 4: that what people need to look at is they look

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Speaker 4: at this debate. Is everyone's going to look at it

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Speaker 4: through their own prism. About seventy five percent of the

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Speaker 4: electorate is baked in at this point. Those are people

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Speaker 4: who have a favorable view of one of the candidates

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Speaker 4: and an unfavorable view of the other. So, for example,

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Speaker 4: of those voters who are favorable on Trump and unfavorable

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Speaker 4: on Biden, they tell us that they're going to vote

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Speaker 4: for Trump at rates of about ninety seven percent. Biden

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Speaker 4: is similar in the other direction. But right now, if

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Speaker 4: the vote were taking place just amongst those people, the

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Speaker 4: love haters as we call them, Trump is up by

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Speaker 4: two or three points in the battleground states, and nationally

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Speaker 4: it's the double haters, the people who have an unfavorable

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Speaker 4: view of both Biden and Trump, who ironically are set

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Speaker 4: up to decide the election, and hopefully will be amongst

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Speaker 4: those seventy seven percent that we fold who say they're

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Speaker 4: going to tune in tonight.

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Speaker 2: Those ironically will decide the election. Okay, so don for

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Speaker 2: a seasoned polster who's been talking to these people, you guys,

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Speaker 2: you know, come back around and follow up on interviews

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Speaker 2: with your sample. Do we have any reason to believe

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Speaker 2: that an event like tonight could move a double hater

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Speaker 2: in one direction or the other?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think absolutely we do, because some of the

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Speaker 4: issues that affect double haters are just how they feel

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Speaker 4: towards these these two candidates. Right now, Biden is losing

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Speaker 4: in the two old battle, but Trump is losing in

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Speaker 4: the temperament battle. And frankly, when you look at these

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Speaker 4: double haters, those double haters will end up saying, I'll

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Speaker 4: probably vote for Trump, but they're doing so more so

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Speaker 4: because they view Trump as better on policies that matter

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Speaker 4: to them most, especially the economy. When you look at

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Speaker 4: the double haters who tell us that they might vote

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Speaker 4: for Biden, it's because they simply don't like Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: more than they dislike Joe Biden. Donald Trump assuayses those

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Speaker 4: concerns tonight. That's going to help him with those double haters.

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Speaker 4: If Joe Biden demonstrates that he's still with it, he's

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Speaker 4: not too old to be president of the United States,

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Speaker 4: that's going to help them. It's those qualities, those personal

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Speaker 4: qualities that could sway those double haters a little bit.

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Speaker 5: One way or another.

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Speaker 4: He brought up the trial before. Amongst double haters, over

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Speaker 4: twenty percent of double haters say, you know what, that

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Speaker 4: trial made me feel more like I want to vote

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Speaker 4: for a third party candidate rather than either of the

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Speaker 4: two major party candidates.

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Speaker 5: This debate is an.

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Speaker 4: Opportunity for both Biden and Trump to speak to those

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Speaker 4: double haters and to try to move them ever so

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Speaker 4: slightly in their direction. Right now, Biden leads amongst double

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Speaker 4: haters by about seven or eight points. He needs a

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Speaker 4: bigger advantage there if he's going to overcome Trump's current advantage.

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Speaker 2: And you just use the keyword I think done. That's temperament, right.

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Speaker 2: If someone's going to be swayed away from Donald Trump tonight,

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Speaker 2: it might not have anything to do with policy, but

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Speaker 2: the way he comports himself. And we haven't seen Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump in a debate in four years. We have seen

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Speaker 2: him on the stump recently saying some pretty wild things.

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Speaker 2: But doesn't this apply to both If Joe Biden comes

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Speaker 2: in swinging and yelling, does his temperament be called suddenly

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Speaker 2: into question?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, And especially amongst these double haters, who are you

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Speaker 4: can call them persuadable? You can call them swing voters.

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Speaker 4: They're the ones whose minds are not completely made up

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Speaker 4: right now. They rate Biden on temperament really at about

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Speaker 4: a break even slightly better. Trump is a negative about

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Speaker 4: ten points on temper So the temperament battle is up

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Speaker 4: for grabs amongst these double haters, these pivotal voters. And

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Speaker 4: how these candidates look, their facial expressions, how they treat

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Speaker 4: one another, whether they can look through that camera and

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Speaker 4: connect with American voters is going to make a big

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Speaker 4: difference tonight and could very well turn the tenor of

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Speaker 4: the election as we move on into these dog days

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Speaker 4: of summer.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we've watched Joe Biden's favorabilities hover from upper thirties

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Speaker 2: to low forties for a pretty long period of time.

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Speaker 2: Here is there an equivalent for Donald Trump since he's

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Speaker 2: not in office.

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Speaker 4: Well, we track certainly Donald Trump's favorability. He tends to

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Speaker 4: be a similar, if not lower number overall. But the

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Speaker 4: difference being that the size of the group who like

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Speaker 4: Trump but don't like Biden is now slightly larger than

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Speaker 4: the group who liked Biden and don't like Trump. If

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Speaker 4: you go back to two sixteen, when we first started

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Speaker 4: to look at this dynamic between Hillary.

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Speaker 5: Clinton and Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Clinton always maintained a slight advantage in the percentage of

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Speaker 4: Americans who viewed her favorably and Trump negatively as opposed

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Speaker 4: to the opposite. So Biden right now is losing the

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Speaker 4: battle of these love haters, if you will, But yet

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Speaker 4: he still holds a slight advantage in the double hates.

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Speaker 4: The double haters, by the way, tend to be younger.

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Speaker 4: They tend to have voted Democratic in the last election

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Speaker 4: by almost twenty points. So that's a group that Biden

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Speaker 4: has lost. He needs to get those back, and they

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Speaker 4: are ideologically as a group, more predisposed to vote for

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Speaker 4: Biden than they are Trump. Yet at the same time

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Speaker 4: they're desperately concerned about the economy.

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Speaker 5: Biden also needs tonight.

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Speaker 4: To somehow, some well, some way convince these double haters

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Speaker 4: and all Americans that he understands the pressures that they

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Speaker 4: feel economically and he's doing something about it. Right now,

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Speaker 4: Trump has a decided advantage among Americans who feel as

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Speaker 4: though he, rather than Biden, is a better economic steward.

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Speaker 2: Double haters feel like to be a great name for

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Speaker 2: a punk rock band. Don if I can just pull

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Speaker 2: out here and pick a headline, maybe the most important

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Speaker 2: thing that you've said. So for Donald Trump, if I

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Speaker 2: heard you right, has pulled even with Joe Biden among women.

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Speaker 2: If that's true, and you see you consider most of

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Speaker 2: the bad news on abortion, if I call it bad news,

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Speaker 2: potentially threatening news to Donald Trump politically when it comes

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Speaker 2: to reproductive rights. We've gotten through the Supreme Court decisions

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Speaker 2: at this point. Obviously Roe is behind Donald Trump. Is

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Speaker 2: that meaningful here? And how much of a problem for

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden.

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Speaker 5: Well, it is a problem for Joe Biden.

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Speaker 4: What in our most recent poll we found was that

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Speaker 4: Biden's lead amongst women went from sixteen points to only

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Speaker 4: five points. So Trump picked up eleven points amongst women.

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Speaker 4: And so it's that fight, that balance between issues like

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Speaker 4: abortion and issues.

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Speaker 5: Around the economy.

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Speaker 4: Right now, women have moved to the tune of eleven

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Speaker 4: points towards Trump. I think that Biden is going to

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Speaker 4: wrestle with that this evening and try to remind women

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Speaker 4: that he represents their rights relative to reproductive freedom. At

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Speaker 4: the same time, the economy weighs on, of course, not

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Speaker 4: just women but everyone. It's the economy which seems to

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Speaker 4: have pushed a greater percentage of women, not quite break even,

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Speaker 4: but a greater percentage of women to now say that

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Speaker 4: they would vote for Donald Trump rather than where they

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Speaker 4: have historically been, more so in the Democrat account.

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Speaker 2: He's leading the conversation today across the nation to this debate.

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Speaker 2: Don Levy Siena College Research Institute Director, Thank you Don

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Speaker 2: for the primer. As we get started on this debate day.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 6: Thirty good mistakes this evening are incredibly high, both for

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Speaker 6: the former and incumbent president and as we look ahead

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Speaker 6: to what Joe Biden needs to accomplish for Democrats at large. Tonight,

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Speaker 6: we want to bring in Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger of Virginia,

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Speaker 6: who is joining us now live from Capitol Hill. Happy

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Speaker 6: debate day, Congresswoman. Always great to see you here on

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg TV and radio. When we look at what Joe

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Speaker 6: Biden needs to accomplish tonight. Is it so much about

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Speaker 6: the policy or about how he performs and speaks about it.

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Speaker 7: I think it's about the choice between two men who

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Speaker 7: are putting themselves both forward as potential presidents. Again, it's

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Speaker 7: a question of which former or current president do we

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Speaker 7: the United States of America, the American people want to

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Speaker 7: have at the helm of our country, and so yes,

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Speaker 7: policy will be a part of it. Certainly, our rights

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Speaker 7: and our freedoms, certainly are continued.

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Speaker 8: Growth of the economy.

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Speaker 7: But I think what it really comes down to is

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Speaker 7: do we want to return to a time where under

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Speaker 7: the former president, former President Trump, we had attacks on communities,

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Speaker 7: we had a questionable situation on the global stage, we

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Speaker 7: had a president who wanted to pull away from NATO.

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Speaker 7: We had a president who was willing and aggressively move

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Speaker 7: forward in pulling back people's rights from voting rights to

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Speaker 7: abortion rights. Or do we want to have a president

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Speaker 7: like the president we have now, President Biden, who as

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Speaker 7: a person is committed to the progress of this country,

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Speaker 7: growing our economy, continuing to lower unemployment, continuing our long

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Speaker 7: term recovery out of COVID, Which of course, as you

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Speaker 7: all well know, is the best in the developed world,

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Speaker 7: protecting the rights and the freedoms of our fellow Americans,

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Speaker 7: and importantly to me, as a former CIA officer and

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Speaker 7: someone with a background in national security, protecting the role

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Speaker 7: of American leadership on the global stage.

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Speaker 2: That's a big picture of you. Congresswoman. Your view from

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Speaker 2: Virginia's seventh Congressional district is so important because you straddle

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Speaker 2: such a wide swath of ages and demographics. A lot

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Speaker 2: of people say that inflation is the number one issue

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Speaker 2: in this race. That's what people are talking about. But

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Speaker 2: you just gave us a thirty thousand foot view that

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Speaker 2: gives us a choice on the approach to democracy, on

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Speaker 2: big picture themes. What are the people of Virginia than

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Speaker 2: want to hear tonight?

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Speaker 8: It's about the approach of how we fix problem.

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Speaker 7: Certainly Virginia across the seventh district, the issue of costs

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Speaker 7: in the grocery store continues to be an important one

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Speaker 7: that I hear about all the time.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 7: And so it's a question of whose approach, whose policies,

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Speaker 7: Who's committed to the American people and to working to

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Speaker 7: continue to lower cost to working to continue to decrease inflation,

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Speaker 7: ensure that you know, more people can buy a home

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Speaker 7: or have an affordable rent, More people can have the

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Speaker 7: ability to move between jobs, because not only is unemployment low,

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Speaker 7: but options and good jobs are there and available to them.

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Speaker 7: And notably, people can care about multiple things at one time.

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Speaker 7: And so, yes, across the board, I hear about the

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Speaker 7: issues of cost, I hear about the challenges you know

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Speaker 7: that people are facing in our economy.

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Speaker 8: And you know, small business owners.

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Speaker 7: Low unemployment's good, but there's still challenges for small business owners.

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Speaker 8: Trying to find workers.

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Speaker 7: Right, there's always even when the news is good, there's challenges.

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Speaker 8: For some folks.

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Speaker 7: And so the question be comes, what are the issues

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Speaker 7: that are most important to voters? Certainly costs among them,

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Speaker 7: but also it's about approach. It's about which president and

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Speaker 7: right now we have you know, current and a former

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Speaker 7: is going to do the good work and the important

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Speaker 7: work of moving us forward on the issues that matter

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Speaker 7: to people.

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Speaker 8: And certainly, you know, we hear.

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Speaker 7: A lot of talk about issues of freedom and particularly

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Speaker 7: abortion rights and access to IVF and contraception, because across

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Speaker 7: my district and across Virginia, there are many people who

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Speaker 7: care about more than one thing, and so certainly we

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Speaker 7: need a president in this twenty twenty four election who

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Speaker 7: is focused on addressing all of the concerns that people have,

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Speaker 7: recognizing those that have the greatest immediacy, certainly, but also

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Speaker 7: recognizing that, yes, part of this is about approach, how

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Speaker 7: someone seeks to govern and how someone seeks to lead.

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Speaker 6: Well, Congressoman, you have brought up the issue of abortion

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Speaker 6: rates a few times, are ready in this conversation. We

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Speaker 6: of course got news on that today from the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 6: which at least for now is allowing emergency access to

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Speaker 6: abortion to continue in Idaho, even if this ruling is

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Speaker 6: more on procedural grounds than actually on the merits of

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Speaker 6: the case. But this is now the second time, as

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Speaker 6: we are at the end of this Court's term, that

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Speaker 6: they have ruled in favor of protecting, at least for

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Speaker 6: the time being, abortion rights. How should that change Joe

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Speaker 6: Biden's messaging around that issue tonight.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think it's important to understand what the ruling

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Speaker 7: or this discussion is actually even about. The question is

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Speaker 7: about whether I'm tala write a law put in place

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Speaker 7: under President Reagan to ensure that someone who walks into

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Speaker 7: a hospital with a life threatening illness would be able

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Speaker 7: to get the healthcare access that they need. The decision

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Speaker 7: today is whether or not, when a woman walks into

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Speaker 7: a hospital potentially facing a life threatening complication to her pregnancy,

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Speaker 7: whether it is appropriate and required or not against the

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Speaker 7: law for a medical doctor to.

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Speaker 8: Save her life.

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Speaker 7: This wasn't a ruling that codifies abortion access. This isn't

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Speaker 7: a ruling that does anything to advance the rights of women.

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Speaker 7: This is a ruling that say doctors can't look at

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Speaker 7: a woman and say you must die because of our

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Speaker 7: state law.

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Speaker 8: And so I don't think that.

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Speaker 7: It should change much of Joe Biden's President Biden's positioning

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Speaker 7: in the discussion of the debate. In fact of anything,

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Speaker 7: I think it will make clear that we are one

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Speaker 7: court decision away potentially from a doctor being able to

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Speaker 7: look at a dying woman and say I'm sorry, I

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Speaker 7: can't help you.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's not lost on us Congresswoman that Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is going to make a bee line for your state

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Speaker 2: after the debate. Tonight, He's on his way to Chesapeake, Virginia.

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Speaker 2: He'll be speaking in that Norfolk area of awfully important

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Speaker 2: area for electoral votes with Governor Glenn Youngkin. Virginia's coming

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Speaker 2: to play a fascinating role in this campaign is maybe

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Speaker 2: the purplest of states. I don't know how you'd describe

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Speaker 2: its woman, But what does it tell you that Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump is going to Virginia to give Glen Youngkin a

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Speaker 2: hug tomorrow?

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Speaker 7: So I think Virginia is a wonderful place and everyone

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Speaker 7: should visit. So I certainly don't fault the former president

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Speaker 7: to wanting to come to our great Commonwealth. But notably

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Speaker 7: more of the question is why it is that our governor,

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Speaker 7: who has previously never welcomed the president and in fact

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Speaker 7: left the state the last time President Trump came to Virginia,

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Speaker 7: is now going to be there to.

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Speaker 8: As you say, give him a hug.

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Speaker 9: Well.

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Speaker 6: Congresswoman, though, just speaks more widely to this idea that

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Speaker 6: the Trump campaign has been espousing that polling suggests they

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Speaker 6: are competitive in the state of Virginia, they actually think

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Speaker 6: that they could win it. Does Joe Biden need to

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Speaker 6: be spending more time there himself? Should he add a

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Speaker 6: list to the swing states he has been visiting frequently

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Speaker 6: since Super Tuesday?

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Speaker 7: So President Biden spends a fair amount of time in Virginia.

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Speaker 7: He was in Virginia just maybe the month before last. Certainly,

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Speaker 7: we have an incredible team on the ground working for

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Speaker 7: the Biden campaign. And you know, certainly our own Senator

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Speaker 7: Tim Kaine is up for reelection this year and barnstorming

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Speaker 7: across the state as is, as are so many of

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Speaker 7: our elected folks working in roles of surrogate. So I certainly,

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Speaker 7: you know, if welcome President Biden to come to Virginia,

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Speaker 7: but Virginia is not going to go for former President

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Speaker 7: Trump in this election.

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Speaker 8: I feel quite certain saying that.

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Speaker 2: Congress Woman, with your background in national security and intelligence

441
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 2: and from your perch on the Intelligence Committee, I wonder

442
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 2: your thoughts as we watch Evan Gershkevich's trial begin in

443
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 2: Russia this week. It's a story we were talking about

444
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 2: quite a bit earlier in the week. Yesterday was the

445
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 2: start of that trial. What would a President Trump mean

446
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 2: for his detention?

447
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 7: First, I wanted to just begin by recognizing the incredible

448
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 7: sacrifice that members of the media, particularly those who travel

449
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 7: to tell stories into countries where the media is not

450
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 7: just disrespected, but is targeted and is arrested and is imprisoned,

451
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 7: as we have seen.

452
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,479
Speaker 8: In this case in Russia.

453
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 7: I think that it would be deeply worrisome from my perspective,

454
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 7: but I think it's one that is far more broadly

455
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 7: held if President former President Trump were to again enter

456
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 7: the White House.

457
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 8: For two reasons.

458
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 7: One, he has always taken the side of Vladimir Putin

459
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 7: over our own intelligence agencies, over our own experts. He

460
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 7: has spoken in defense of an authoritarian regime.

461
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 8: And notably, he at.

462
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 7: Home, has done a great deal to degrade, to demean,

463
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 7: and to target the press and the media for doing

464
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 7: the job that is theirs to do. They are supposed

465
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 7: to be critical of us elected leaders. You all are

466
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 7: supposed to hold us to account. And so I think

467
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 7: a president who seeks to be more or like a

468
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 7: couton here at home would do very very little to

469
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 7: defend an American who, in pursuit of telling the truth,

470
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 7: in pursuit of reporting back is congress Woman.

471
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 2: Thank you, Abigail Spanberger with the View from Virginia.

472
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.

473
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,959
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,

474
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car

475
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: Play and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.

476
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

477
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

478
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 6: Taking you from New York with Charlie Pellett to here

479
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 6: in Washington with me and Joe down to Atlanta today

480
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 6: as we preview less than eight hours from now the

481
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 6: first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It

482
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 6: is an incredibly high stakes evening for both campaigns, and

483
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 6: it's worth noting this will be Donald Trump back in

484
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 6: Georgia after getting indicted in that state many months ago. Joe,

485
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 6: of course, there is not and the prevailing thinking right

486
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 6: now that he will end up going to trial in

487
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 6: that racketeering case that was brought against him there. But

488
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 6: of course this is going to be an appearance by

489
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 6: the former president after being a convicted felon in a

490
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 6: separate criminal case in New York. The thing is pulling

491
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 6: out within the last twenty four hours suggests that that

492
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 6: conviction doesn't matter much at all.

493
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 10: Yes, we head into the season.

494
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: Isn't this something We've heard this anecdotally. Sienna puts numbers

495
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: on it today in front of The New York Times.

496
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 2: We talked to Don Levy about it earlier in the program.

497
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 2: More than two thirds of voters in this poll, first

498
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 2: time SIENA poll since the trial ended, say the outcome

499
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: of his criminal case made no difference to their vote

500
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 2: two thirds. In fact, some Republicans were more likely to

501
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 2: support him. It's different than conventional wisdom might suggest. Another

502
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 2: interesting number I'll throw at you, Quinnipiac. You wonder who

503
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,360
Speaker 2: the heck's going to watch this thing tonight? Seven to

504
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 2: ten registered voters say they will be watching, which would

505
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: make this among the highest rated things to ever happen

506
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 2: on television. Of course, we'll have it here for you

507
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Let's assemble our panel. As Kaylee said, We've

508
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: put together a great one for you today. Rick Davis

509
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 2: is with US Republican strategist of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor,

510
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 2: joined by Joel Rubin, Democratic strategist, former Deputy Assistant Secretary

511
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 2: of State of the Obama administration. It's great to see

512
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 2: both of you here. Rick, You've prepared candidates for debates

513
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 2: just like this one. Obviously they're presumptive nominees. In this case,

514
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 2: it's a little different. It's coming pretty early, but the

515
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 2: stakes are arguably higher if there's an audience like this.

516
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 2: Quinnipiac poll suggests seven and ten. We cannot underscore the

517
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: impact this could have on the campaign. How are you

518
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: looking at it?

519
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that this was a real gamble.

520
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 12: I think to forego the Commission on Debates and try this,

521
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 12: you know, one CNN debate as a test to see.

522
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 11: Whether or not people would tune in.

523
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 12: Certainly the polling data indicates that they likely will, and

524
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 12: we know that historically high debates for like eighty you know,

525
00:27:55,960 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 12: eighty four million people tuning into view and that will

526
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 12: be dwarfed. I'm sure by the follow on social media

527
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 12: clips that people will view that happened the night before.

528
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 11: So I think we can press assured.

529
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 12: Based on what we know today, this is going to

530
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 12: be something that voters are looking into because they're curious

531
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 12: about what's going on with these two guys forty five

532
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 12: versus forty six. You know, two presidents have never debated

533
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 12: like this in a modern era, and so it's the

534
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 12: kind of thing I think is as much a curiosity

535
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 12: as it is a determining factor, because the reality is

536
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 12: the country is divided very equally, and we're really talking

537
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 12: about a few percentage points that are really up for

538
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 12: grabs right now, and those are the folks that probably

539
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 12: have the greatest stake in watching this debate.

540
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, we're talking about a race divided for by a

541
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 6: few percentage points. If the latest polling is to believe.

542
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 6: New York Times Sienna has the spread between Trump and

543
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 6: Biden three points. Trump, of course is leading. His lead

544
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 6: is even greater with registered voters. Nothing else interesting though,

545
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 6: in this poll Joe Joel is that only seventy two

546
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 6: percent of voters who said they voted for Biden four

547
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 6: years ago approve of the job he is doing as president.

548
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 6: This is ninety percent of Republicans say they view Donald

549
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 6: Trump favorably. It does seem that Trump has had much

550
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 6: more success in consolidating his base of support than Joe

551
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 6: Biden at this point. How does he reassemble the twenty

552
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 6: twenty coalition this time around? How can he advance that

553
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 6: effort further.

554
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 9: Tonight, Kaylee, This is the question that the campaign is

555
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 9: grappling with every day, and it's the kind of discussion

556
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 9: that feel very confident that they're going to be able

557
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 9: to execute in terms of making the case. Look, Joe

558
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 9: Biden has been running the country for the last three

559
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,719
Speaker 9: and a half years. Donald Trump has been in and

560
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 9: out of court and spending a lot of time on

561
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 9: social media and doing things to get his base fired up.

562
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,479
Speaker 9: He did was that he should say twenty percent on

563
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 9: a consistent basis in the recent primary. So I'm not

564
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 9: sure about that ninety percent. But President Biden, he likes

565
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 9: to say that, don't compare me to the almighty, compare

566
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 9: me to the alternative, and the alternative will be on

567
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 9: full display tonight, and that's going to really remind Democrats, who,

568
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 9: you know, we're kind of a little bit behind the

569
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 9: motivation factor when we see our guy in the White House.

570
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 9: It's going to remind us about what's at stake in

571
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 9: this election, and a lot is at stake. Fundamental freedoms

572
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 9: for women, for LGBTQ Americans, a question of confidence, a

573
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 9: question of integrity, all of these issues that motivated Democrats

574
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty. They're going to come right back to

575
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 9: the fore and I think you're going to see a

576
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 9: real big jump in that motivation going forward from tonight.

577
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 2: Rick, these two gentlemen are going to be in people's

578
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: living rooms tonight. If at least this goes well, that's

579
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: what they're hoping for. We keep talking about temper and

580
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 2: flare ups, people acting crazy. To the extent that you've

581
00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: spent time with candidates experience the nerves that preceded an

582
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 2: event like this. How important is a sense of humor?

583
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 11: Oh?

584
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 12: I think it's critical at least just to cut the

585
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 12: very stiff air that exists, especially.

586
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 11: Right before the debate.

587
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 12: I mean, I like to put myself, you know, in

588
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 12: the timetable, and tonight, both these candids are going to

589
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 12: sit down with a very select group of people to

590
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 12: have dinner.

591
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 11: It's late enough in this debate. They're going to want

592
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 11: to eat first.

593
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 12: And the most important thing that I found in the past,

594
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 12: whether it was for John McCain or George Bush or

595
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 12: Bob Dohole or any of these candidates that had big

596
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 12: debates in their lifetime, was to break the sort of

597
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 12: tension in the room and have some fun. I remember

598
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 12: when Lindsey Graham showed up at a presidential debate wearing

599
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 12: a John McCain rubber mask, and you know, basically went

600
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 12: on to pretend to be in the debate tonight and

601
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 12: told John that look, if there was anything going wrong

602
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 12: with him, he'd be happy to step in with the.

603
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 11: Rubber masks that night.

604
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 12: And so you know, you just got to have somebody

605
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 12: just change the topic a little bit to get these

606
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 12: guys relaxed, because, as we've talked, it's a tense moment

607
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 12: for anybody, and this is one that will it will

608
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 12: be tense for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

609
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 6: So it will be tense, just as all presidential debates are.

610
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 6: But as we've mentioned, there are many things that are

611
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 6: making this particular presidential debate different, not only the Commission's

612
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 6: lack of involvement, but the rules of engagement here with

613
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 6: the cutting off of microphones, with the lack of a

614
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 6: live audience, also with the fact that it's taking place

615
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 6: in not only a swing state, but a state in

616
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 6: which one of the candidates on the stage has been

617
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 6: indicted on multiple felonies in the case related to twenty

618
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 6: twenty election of subversion, the racketeering case that was brought

619
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 6: against Trump and many other defendants. Of course, what went

620
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 6: down in Georgia has made Donald Trump a few enemies,

621
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 6: even within his own party, or at least those who

622
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 6: aren't eager to vote for him, including the Governor of Georgia,

623
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 6: Brian Kemp, who had this to say on CNN Line

624
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 6: last night.

625
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 2: In the Georgia promer, I didn't vote for anybody. I'll voted,

626
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: but I didn't vote for anybody. I mean, the race

627
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 2: was already over when the primary got here.

628
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 8: But you didn't vote for Donald Trump.

629
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 5: I'd vote for anybody.

630
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 11: Why not because the race is over with.

631
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 6: He didn't vote for anyone, Okay, but he definitely decidedly

632
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 6: did not vote for Donald Trump. Joel, I would love

633
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 6: to have you weigh in on this, considering what happened

634
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 6: in Georgia in twenty twenty everything in the aftermath, how

635
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 6: we should be thinking about the state of Georgia for

636
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 6: Trump and Biden in twenty twenty four.

637
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, Kaylee, I mean, I think Donald Trump's already been

638
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 9: fingerprinted down in Georgia, so maybe he doesn't have to

639
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 9: worry about getting hauled in again. Look what Brian the

640
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 9: governor who won convincingly against Donald Trump endorsement or our tacks,

641
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 9: I should say, he basically demonstrated the lingering resentment within

642
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 9: Republican leadership and within many Republicans around the county towards

643
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 9: Donald Trump's actions in that election. And look, he's not alone.

644
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 9: Many people who closely advised and worked for Donald Trump

645
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 9: up to his vice president, have said he's not fit

646
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 9: for office, have said he should never be near the

647
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 9: oval office again, have said that he tried to overthrow

648
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 9: a democracy. The Secretary of Defense who served for him,

649
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 9: Mark Esper, said that he tried to use or wanted

650
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 9: to use the military to overturn the election results. So

651
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 9: I'm glad that Brian Kemp is loyal to the American constitution.

652
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 9: I think that Americans will see President Biden is loyal

653
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 9: to the American constitution. I'm confident that the moderators will

654
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 9: ask about whether or not Donald Trump will accept the results,

655
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 9: and he, when asked in twenty twenty, basically said no

656
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,399
Speaker 9: and implied that he was going to have the Proud

657
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 9: Boys in white supremacist group take action if necessary. And

658
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,959
Speaker 9: this is a man won't last thing. I should mention

659
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 9: who said that he would only be a dictator on

660
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 9: day one. Those are the of if he wins again,

661
00:34:58,239 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 9: those are the kinds of stakes that we're looking at.

662
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 9: Brian Kemp didn't like it that President Trump tried to

663
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 9: undermine the will of his voters in Georgia and steal

664
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 9: that election, and clearly that has not been repaired.

665
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 2: Something tells me. You'll hear that line tonight, Rick, we've

666
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: only got a minute left. What do you tell your

667
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 2: candidate about how to deal with the moderator or in

668
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 2: tonight's case, the moderators.

669
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 12: Well, they're gonna have two totally different approaches tonight, right,

670
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 12: Joe Biden is gonna be very solicitous of the moderators.

671
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 12: He's going to ask for extra you know, like did

672
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 12: I use up all my time?

673
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 11: Can I?

674
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 12: He's like a boy scout. He wants to play by

675
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 12: the rules. And that's what we saw in the two

676
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 12: debates before with Donald Trump. Donald Trump will abuse the moderators.

677
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 12: He'll look for every opportunity to make the case that

678
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 12: this is three on one and throughout the MAGA world.

679
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 12: This debate is not a debate between him and Joe Biden,

680
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 12: but him against Joe Biden and the two CNN moderators.

681
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 12: And so he'll make good use of them as a foil.

682
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 12: And I think that that's part of the temperament issue

683
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 12: that he's got a judge just to you know just

684
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 12: how negative is he going to come out? But you know,

685
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 12: he'll he'll definitely treat them differently than Joe Biden's going.

686
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 8: To all right.

687
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 6: Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategists, and Joel Rubin,

688
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 6: former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under President Obama and

689
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 6: Democratic strategists. Thank you both so much for joining us

690
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 6: on this debate day.

691
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

692
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay, and then

693
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,959
Speaker 1: royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

694
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

695
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

696
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 2: We're live from Washington with it I on Atlanta, Kaylee.

697
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 2: The big game starts tonight, the debate at nine pm

698
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: Eastern Time. Our special coverage will start at eight. But

699
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: the President is on his way there now. He's left

700
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 2: Camp David on his way to Atlanta. Donald Trump and

701
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 2: Joe Biden on stage for the first time in four

702
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: years in this Sienna College pol we've been talking about

703
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: with The New York Times for the remarkable statistic Rick

704
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 2: Davis mentioned it a short time ago. Sixty percent of

705
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: registered voters think mister Trump will perform very or somewhat

706
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 2: well in the matchup forty six percent, the same about

707
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. So that's where the bar is set for

708
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 2: the many people at home tonight.

709
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, and arguably Donald Trump had a hand in setting

710
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,760
Speaker 6: that bar low for Joe Biden, as he'd has repeatedly

711
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,240
Speaker 6: challenged him to debate him any time, anywhere, any place,

712
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 6: now seems to be trying to lower the bar for

713
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 6: himself in return, talking about how the moderators and CNN,

714
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 6: which of course is the network hosting the debate, could

715
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 6: be rigged against him. But what it all speaks to

716
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 6: Joe is that the stakes tonight are incredibly high, and

717
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 6: who was perceived to have the better performance potentially could

718
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 6: get ahead in an election that we know is going

719
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 6: to be incredibly close and potentially incredibly volatile. And that's

720
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 6: why markets will be watching it very carefully, especially if

721
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 6: we get specific policy outlined by these candidates tonight. So

722
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 6: here with a closer look at what's it's for the

723
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 6: markets and how markets are positioned ahead of tonight's event

724
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 6: is Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail Dolittle. He was joining us

725
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 6: now from New York. So, Abigail, where are we likely

726
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 6: to see the market reaction depending on how tonight goes.

727
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 13: What's really interesting, Kaylee. Right now, relative to current markets,

728
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 13: we're not seeing too much of a reaction at all.

729
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 13: And this is interesting only because something that we know

730
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 13: about markets investors they love certainty. Another way of saying

731
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 13: that is that markets hate uncertainty, and we clearly have

732
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 13: this big unknown in November. So if we go out

733
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 13: to October and November, they're the uncertainty. The fear is showing,

734
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 13: and that's showing in something called the VIS that's an

735
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 13: index that measures a volatility of the markets. It is

736
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 13: heightened right now at a seventeen to eighteen level, but

737
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 13: right now, going into this debate, it's at a twelve.

738
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 13: We have Bitcoin that's seen as another tell on volatility,

739
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 13: risk on risk off. It's above an important support level

740
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 13: above sixty. So going into the debate, investors seem relatively

741
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 13: but as you mentioned, anything is possible. You were talking

742
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 13: with Joe about the idea that former President Donald Trump

743
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 13: that folks out there in the world sixty percent think

744
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,839
Speaker 13: that he might have a better performance. But the truth

745
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 13: of the matter is we really don't know. I mean,

746
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 13: maybe that mute button saves him in some ways. Because

747
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 13: he has a little bit.

748
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 8: Of a wild card.

749
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 13: There is of course fear that President Biden may have

750
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 13: some problems around coherency and that sort of thing. But

751
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 13: if it turns into a make or break moment for

752
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 13: either of these presidents presidential candidates, it means that the

753
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,240
Speaker 13: relatively narrow gap five to six percent with former President

754
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 13: Trump in the lead could widen. Now, on the one hand,

755
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 13: you would think that would provide certainty, but I think

756
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 13: in this particular election year, I think that any sort

757
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 13: of big volatile moment tonight that's going to probably bring

758
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 13: that VIX and volatility expectations even higher.

759
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 2: Well, it would be incredible to put numbers on it.

760
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: And you always compelled by the conventional wisdom, Abigail, that

761
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 2: the Republican in this case, Donald Trump is better for

762
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 2: the markets than the Democrat here Joe Biden, who's seen

763
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 2: what more than thirty all time highs for the S

764
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 2: and P five hundred this year. The fact is, when

765
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 2: you look at history, it shows us the markets by

766
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 2: a small margin, but the markets actually tend to outperform

767
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: under democratic administrations. Does Wall Street care about history in

768
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:18,280
Speaker 2: this case?

769
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 13: It's interesting you're saying that because I was about to

770
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 13: mention that that typically the markets do and again by

771
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 13: a small margin, outperform under Democratic presidents. You know, something

772
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 13: to think about here is it's not just the presidential

773
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 13: election in the fall. It's also going to be the

774
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 13: narrowly controlled Senate by the Democrats right now, and the

775
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 13: Republicans have that narrow lead in the House. What investors

776
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 13: would really like to see is one party controlling. All

777
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 13: you and Kelly were mentioning the possibility of policy changes.

778
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 13: Something that's really up for grab grabs is tax policy.

779
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 13: We simply don't have enough information right now. But the

780
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 13: Tax Cut and Jobs Act that was passed back in

781
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 13: twenty seventeen, it expires next year. If it expires and

782
00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 13: nothing new is put in, corporate tax rates could go

783
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 13: up thirty five percent. I believe that the Democrats, that

784
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 13: the Biden administration has even floated the idea of a

785
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 13: twenty percent twenty eight percent hike on the expiration, the

786
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 13: Republicans looking at something like fifteen percent. Interestingly, and this

787
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 13: made in some way support the idea that investors do

788
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 13: like President Trump former President Trump just a bit better.

789
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 13: The most highly taxed on an absolute basis, companies they're

790
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,359
Speaker 13: doing just fine this year and frankly for a couple

791
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:31,439
Speaker 13: of years, Apple, Berkshire, Hathaway, Microsoft and Exon. It's also,

792
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 13: of course we have DJT, Donald Trump's own personal stock

793
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 13: in a way of his media company up forty percent

794
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 13: this week, so that seems to support some of the

795
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 13: statistics that the both of you are talking about.

796
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 2: This is great, great set up, Abigail, Thank you, Abigail

797
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 2: do little Bloomberg Markets correspondent with US live from New

798
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: York as we carry on from Washington with Balance of

799
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 2: Power and add the voice of Andy Blocker. Been looking

800
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 2: forward to this conversation from Investco, where he's global head

801
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,240
Speaker 2: of Public Policy and Strategic Partnerships. Andy, welcome to the table.

802
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 2: It's great to say you today. I suspect you've got

803
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 2: your watch party. What do you make of this though?

804
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 2: What do the markets? What does the so called investor,

805
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 2: of course not a monolith, think of this democrat and

806
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 2: this Republican tonight? Is it a wash for Wall Street?

807
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 3: Well?

808
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 10: I think generally speaking it is more of a wash

809
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 10: if you look at it from a macro perspective. I mean,

810
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 10: we've got to report out that basically says it doesn't

811
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 10: make a difference. Do not do your investing based on

812
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 10: who's presidence or Republican or Democrat. So we did a

813
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 10: study that showed, you know, for the last one hundred years,

814
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 10: if you just only were invested with Republicans, you would

815
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 10: be this much, only Democrats this much, stay invested this much.

816
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 10: So the question is where you're invested, not whether you're invested.

817
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 6: Okay, but there's arguably a few things that could change

818
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 6: that depending on who was president. For example, Donald Trump

819
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 6: has floated the idea of tariffing everything coming from China

820
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 6: at a sixty percent rate, which everyone we've spoken to,

821
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 6: economists and otherwise have suggested effectively cuts off the trading

822
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 6: relationship between the two largest economies in the world. Wouldn't

823
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 6: that fundamentally shift what the investment outlook looks like when

824
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 6: we're talking about policy this extreme.

825
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 10: So that goes to what I said, it's specifically where

826
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 10: you're invested in what so So tariffs are inflationary, So

827
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 10: sixty percent with China inflationary, the ten percent across the

828
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 10: board for every country of inflationary. But we really in

829
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 10: the markets right now are looking at as an opening bid.

830
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 10: We don't really think that any of these tariffs are

831
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 10: going to be implemented at that level. They may be

832
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 10: implemented less depending on what country, but he's going to

833
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 10: do things country by country and see what we can

834
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 10: get for that. Hey, you want your ten percent, or

835
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 10: do you want to give us something over here that

836
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 10: we want? Same thing with China. So I think to

837
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 10: the extent that it becomes more real that we believe

838
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 10: sixty percent would actually be implemented, that would have a

839
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 10: major impact on the market, especially in the early day.

840
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 10: So you're going to see a lot of volatility in

841
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 10: the beginning and it could have an impact until it

842
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 10: settles out.

843
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 2: It's a great old saying on Wall Street, gridlock is

844
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 2: good when it comes to Washington. I wonder our investor's

845
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 2: less concerned about whether it's a D or an R

846
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 2: in the White House, but more concerned that there's balance

847
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 2: of power on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

848
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 5: Joe.

849
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 10: I think that's a great point. I think we love

850
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 10: split government in the markets because it really lowers the

851
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 10: bidass spread of how far left or right you can go.

852
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 10: It keeps you in the center and things there where

853
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 10: there's a consensus, and that's where it's more predictable for us,

854
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 10: and it leads us out from major policy changes.

855
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 6: Okay, so arguably what we're all expecting, at least at

856
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 6: this time, it seems that you're looking at a Senate

857
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 6: that may flip red, a House that has the potential

858
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 6: to flip blue, which means twenty twenty five from a

859
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 6: tax policy perspective, could get really, really messy because, as

860
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 6: Abigail was just talking about the twenty seventeen tax cuts,

861
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 6: at least a large part of them are going to

862
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 6: expire this year, potentially could impact the economic outlook if

863
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 6: they do so, if they're held, obviously that has implications

864
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 6: for the deficit and the long term trajectory of that.

865
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,479
Speaker 6: How do you look at the short term versus long

866
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 6: term effects of those kind of decisions?

867
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 10: So, Kaylee, that's the question. In a split government, how

868
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 10: do they negotiate that out. I think if if it's

869
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 10: a Biden presidency, because the individual tax cuts expire, he's

870
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 10: gonna have a little bit of leverage to get some

871
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 10: of what he wants from a split congress. For for

872
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,359
Speaker 10: for Trump, I think his ambitions of lowering everything may

873
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 10: go away. So I think if you're looking at Biden's proposals.

874
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 10: I think four hundred thousand and above you're gonna you're

875
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 10: gonna either you're gonna pay more taxes. The question is

876
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,280
Speaker 10: what under four inun thousand. I think it'd be protected

877
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 10: corporate tax. That's gonna be a negotiation. I don't think

878
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 10: they're gonna go up to the twenty eight percent that

879
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,959
Speaker 10: Biden wants to. You may have to compromise on that.

880
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 10: So from our perspective, the tax policy I think is

881
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 10: gonna be somewhere in the middle. You're not gonna, we

882
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 10: think split governments where we're headed now. If we don't

883
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 10: have split government, that's where it gets very interesting.

884
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 2: That's where things gonna actually change. I know you're not

885
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 2: a market strategist, you're a policy gun. But with that said,

886
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 2: when you back off and look at the markets, the

887
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 2: last couple of presidencies and maybe where they're going, here

888
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 2: are both of these guys lucky to be here When

889
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 2: we look at this period of time, we're in a

890
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: generational rally, a generational advance in the stock market. It's

891
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 2: not a bad time to be here and take credit

892
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 2: for it, is it?

893
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 11: No?

894
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 10: No, you're absolutely right, and I hope We're not just

895
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 10: lucky to be here. Hope it continues, but no, I

896
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 10: think the markets have really been resilient regardless of what

897
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:22,720
Speaker 10: the policies have been. There may be volatility at times

898
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 10: to adjust to what the new norm is, but new innovation,

899
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 10: you know, US is driving most of that with our innovative,

900
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 10: entrepreneurial spirit.

901
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 6: So the US may have the companies and the innovation

902
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 6: and be you know, leading in terms of equity markets

903
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 6: around the world, but the US also historically is just

904
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 6: a leader in the world in terms of democracy. And

905
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 6: Joe Biden is very much trying to make this election

906
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 6: about the future of that democracy and the way that

907
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 6: the US is going to be able to lead other

908
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 6: democracies in the future. How should we think about the

909
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 6: geopolitical element to what will go down tonight. Well, we'll

910
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 6: hear from these candidates, but what this election means for

911
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 6: the United States is standing in the global order.

912
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 10: So I think when I when I talk to clients

913
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 10: in Asia or Europe, there's a much more acute concern

914
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 10: about that. In the US, it's split. I mean, if

915
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 10: you look at a polling, just as many people who

916
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 10: favored Trump are concerned about Biden's effect on democracy as

917
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,760
Speaker 10: the other way around, but overseas it's really tilted towards

918
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 10: the concern about the ongoing democratic state and leading the

919
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 10: world amongst our allies. So look, I think clearly amongst

920
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 10: our allies, I think there's a preference for Biden. But

921
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 10: in the US, I think when we looked at it,

922
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 10: we really didn't see a difference with respect to Trump

923
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 10: may be more radical in it's talking, but you kind

924
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 10: of end up closer together with respect to policy. If

925
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 10: I talk about tail risk, that's a whole nother thing,

926
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 10: But we're looking at We're looking at the most likely

927
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 10: risks at this time.

928
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 2: This is a real reality check, you know, with a

929
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 2: lot of the white stuff that you hear in anticipation

930
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 2: of a change in power. The market view is important

931
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: to us. Does it become potentially more volatile or a

932
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 2: higher risk, for instance, for commodities you talk about oil prices, metals, copper,

933
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 2: Some of the things that we do see sometimes turn

934
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 2: on a dime.

935
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 10: No, it does. But what we found is that well

936
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 10: in our report that we released on the impact of

937
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,839
Speaker 10: the policies on the markets, the interesting thing we saw

938
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 10: was that with Biden, oil companies did great, but under Trump,

939
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 10: you know, alternative fuels did great, and partly that's because

940
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 10: of other externalities, Like so you had the Russia Ukraine War. Sure,

941
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 10: that's why those companies. Oil companies did well under Biden.

942
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 10: So you have to mix it in with other things

943
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 10: that are impacting the market. So it's not just all policy,

944
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 10: even though policy is a factor.

945
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 6: Well, speaking of other things that are impacting the market, obviously,

946
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 6: FED policy could be hugely consequential. Consequential not just in

947
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 6: terms of potentially helping decide the outcome of the selection,

948
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 6: whether or not we get a rate cut, but also

949
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 6: what happens to the independence of the Federal Reserve after

950
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,240
Speaker 6: the fact. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump and Biden

951
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 6: both got a question about the FED in the debate tonight. Potentially,

952
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 6: how should we be considering how whose president might influence

953
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 6: the trajectory of monetary policy going forward.

954
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 10: So look, I think if it's Biden, I think it's

955
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 10: steady state at least on the surface. Allow them to

956
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 10: be independent, even though you may be trying to influence

957
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 10: in other ways. Whereas Trump is going to be pretty straightforward,

958
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,399
Speaker 10: He's going to be pretty aggressive he's said that he's

959
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 10: going to you know, change the way that works, but

960
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 10: he'll definitely browbeat the FED chair if he's there, which

961
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,720
Speaker 10: can you know, potentially lower rates faster than they otherwise

962
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 10: would come down.

963
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 6: All right, Andy Blocker, Global Head of Public Policy and

964
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,280
Speaker 6: Strategic Partnerships at Invesco, Thank you so much for joining

965
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 6: us here inter Washington, d C Studio on what is

966
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 6: Debate date.

967
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

968
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify,

969
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

970
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 2: us line every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

971
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.