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Speaker 2: time for Sharper Square, Chad Milman, CEEO Action Network. All
Speaker 2: odds provided by DraftKings. So I was a Will Levis
Speaker 2: bonehead play from going two too and one. So I
Speaker 2: was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean, I was wrong
Speaker 2: on the Carolina side, but other than that, I felt
Speaker 2: pretty good about it.
Speaker 1: I could go in.
Speaker 2: An order of importance, but I was thinking about this.
Speaker 2: I am above going in order. I just give you
Speaker 2: my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start
Speaker 2: with a team that is this close to beating Kansas
Speaker 2: City arrowhead and I think the Chiefs are a better
Speaker 2: version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think
Speaker 2: the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly
Speaker 2: well coached. I mean the fact that the only way
Speaker 2: they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.
Speaker 2: They beat them at their only game. I think Baltimore's
Speaker 2: really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times
Speaker 2: on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.
Speaker 2: It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think
Speaker 2: Baltimore's pissed. I'm going to swallow the eight and a
Speaker 2: half Sharper square, so.
Speaker 3: It's square, but you're not going to find a ton
Speaker 3: of guys who when they're doing this are excited about
Speaker 3: betting the Raiders. You mentioned Carolina, Right, I was on
Speaker 3: Carolina last week too. The wise guys will be on
Speaker 3: Carolina again this week at six and a half point underdogs,
Speaker 3: in the same way they're going to be on the Raiders,
Speaker 3: which started at nine and a half, got up to ten,
Speaker 3: and then was bet down to nine and a half,
Speaker 3: than nine, and now eight and a half. So it's
Speaker 3: getting closer to a number that I think at some
Speaker 3: point the wise guys will come back in on Baltimore.
Speaker 3: But at this big of a number, they're just betting
Speaker 3: the number, and this early in the season, everything tells
Speaker 3: you that you are playing against the over reaction. Right,
Speaker 3: everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come
Speaker 3: within a toenail of tying the chief Yiefs at Arrowhead
Speaker 3: in a massive game against the Chiefs team that looks
Speaker 3: like he can break every rule of betting that exists
Speaker 3: in the universe. Right, the Raiders people were high on
Speaker 3: they got crushed and they didn't look very good doing it.
Speaker 3: And Antonio Peers made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in
Speaker 3: the Athletic that that decision he made on fourth down
Speaker 3: in his own territory. It was the first time a
Speaker 3: coach had been down and in his own territory in
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one
Speaker 3: of the most cowardly calls that has been made in
Speaker 3: the past eight years. And you could see him on camera.
Speaker 3: There's the videos of him saying, should I be going
Speaker 3: for this right now? So there's a sentiment that people
Speaker 3: are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play, and
Speaker 3: the great play by the Ravens.
Speaker 1: So yes, the wise guys are going to be on
Speaker 1: the Raiders.
Speaker 2: So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,
Speaker 2: played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as
Speaker 2: good as the Niners, that's very hard to do back
Speaker 2: to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.
Speaker 2: Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're
Speaker 2: great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,
Speaker 2: tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.
Speaker 2: I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.
Speaker 2: If they finished fourth, they will be the greatest fourth
Speaker 2: place team in the history of the league. They've got
Speaker 2: a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,
Speaker 2: really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski
Speaker 2: before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just
Speaker 2: he's operating at a different level. This was at six.
Speaker 2: At one point, I think I take the Vikings five
Speaker 2: and a half. Sharper square wise. Guys are taking the
Speaker 2: Vikings at five and a half. They took him at six.
Speaker 2: They still like the Vikings.
Speaker 3: I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in
Speaker 3: this game, and part of it is Kyle Shanahan is
Speaker 3: so good. You and I have talked about this, like,
Speaker 3: he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It
Speaker 3: actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And
Speaker 3: he's also been very good on short weeks on the
Speaker 3: road eight and two during his career, one of the
Speaker 3: four best coaches in the past five years on short
Speaker 3: weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,
Speaker 3: I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot
Speaker 3: more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
Speaker 3: You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was
Speaker 3: Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 1: They were neck and neck for Rookie of the Year. Coaching.
Speaker 3: They both had teams that were excellent in one score
Speaker 3: games they played each other in the playoffs. The Giants
Speaker 3: win in Minnesota, Brian day Ball wins Coach of the Year.
Speaker 3: He's getting more credited as the best coach right and
Speaker 3: Kevin O'Connell had a similar year. And then last year
Speaker 3: did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down and Brian Dayball's
Speaker 3: team is cratering when their top quarterback goes down. Then
Speaker 3: we see what happens last week. A bad quarterback for
Speaker 3: the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and
Speaker 3: he has a Cinderella like first half ten for ten
Speaker 3: on his first ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety
Speaker 3: nine yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down
Speaker 3: pass like touchdownass to Jehman Jefferson, Kevin O'Connell is a
Speaker 3: very good coach, and I think that's another reason why
Speaker 3: the why guys are in their vikings.
Speaker 2: So there's two things that I look at with the
Speaker 2: Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game,
Speaker 2: and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, like the Jets
Speaker 2: were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by
Speaker 2: San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sama. That
Speaker 2: was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially
Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses in the league. For a quarterback,
Speaker 2: I don't think him play. I don't think Will Levis
Speaker 2: can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I think
Speaker 2: his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on the SEC.
Speaker 2: That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco
Speaker 2: makes everybody. So does Andy Reid and McVeigh. They make
Speaker 2: a lot of people look bad. In the Week one,
Speaker 2: I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team.
Speaker 2: When this number got up to four, Now I sound
Speaker 2: like such a square on this, but four is an
Speaker 2: interesting number. Here's how I view four. I like favorites
Speaker 2: four because the market doesn't want to create force. They'd
Speaker 2: rather you be three to three and a half. When
Speaker 2: the market has to go to four, their signaling okay,
Speaker 2: it is just a better team. This started for the
Speaker 2: Jets for a better team. They're pissed. I don't think
Speaker 2: Will Levis can play. Home Field's never met anything in Nashville.
Speaker 2: I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 3: Well, otherwise guys like the Titans and they're kind of
Speaker 3: holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,
Speaker 3: and that number four is really important, and I'm glad
Speaker 3: you bring it up, and we'll do that in the
Speaker 3: last part of my soliloquy here. The Jets had were
Speaker 3: physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is
Speaker 3: supposed to be their strength, as you noted, eh straight
Speaker 3: scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking
Speaker 3: scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get
Speaker 3: to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Bill
Speaker 3: Callahan showed last week that he can do something really
Speaker 3: interesting with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective.
Speaker 3: You know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary
Speaker 3: offensive line coach, left the Browns this past season to
Speaker 3: go work with his son revamp the Titans offensive line.
Speaker 3: The Titans defense did not give up a touchdown to
Speaker 3: the Bears, right like the Bears were scoring on special
Speaker 3: teams and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis,
Speaker 3: as you said, is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys
Speaker 3: are betting the number here. The four is key teams
Speaker 3: that open at four or higher at home in weeks
Speaker 3: one and two sixty percent against the spread the last
Speaker 3: twenty years, teams that open at four or higher at
Speaker 3: home after losing their last game against the spread, which
Speaker 3: the text with the Titans did sixty four percent since
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. More stat that is very interesting. The
Speaker 3: Jets were dominated on Monday night, and now of a
Speaker 3: defense that was on the field for a ton of
Speaker 3: plays going back short week to be against another really
Speaker 3: physical team. That's what the Titans want to be. Teams
Speaker 3: with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in Week
Speaker 3: one six and twenty five against the spread in Week two,
Speaker 3: that's nineteen percent the jtal So look, I'm with you,
Speaker 3: like this isn't going to be one of my five
Speaker 3: best plays because I don't trust Will Levis and it's
Speaker 3: and it's it's becoming clear in this league there is
Speaker 3: such a delta between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking
Speaker 3: and not it's becoming too much of a hindrance for
Speaker 3: teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're
Speaker 3: gonna have to play the quarterback in some situations. And
Speaker 3: this to me is a scary spot. The Wise guys
Speaker 3: aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.
Speaker 2: I want to take Denver plus two and a half
Speaker 2: against the Steelers, and here's what, Thank god, I thought
Speaker 2: it was a really tough spot for both Nicks in
Speaker 2: the opener loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.
Speaker 2: You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's
Speaker 2: got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him
Speaker 2: to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.
Speaker 2: He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another
Speaker 2: another ex player who I respect, tell me this week
Speaker 2: he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may
Speaker 2: not be the best year two three, four, he's going
Speaker 2: to have the best year. The rest of them have
Speaker 2: defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been
Speaker 2: good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I
Speaker 2: think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers as dogs,
Speaker 2: not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper square.
Speaker 3: One hundred percent, ding ding ding ding Ding. Wise guys
Speaker 3: love the Broncos. Here's probably going to take a little
Speaker 3: piece of the Broncos on the money line as well.
Speaker 3: Great spot for bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys
Speaker 3: they love Seattle. They're really impressed with Seattle's defense, so
Speaker 3: love Mike mcd ronald and what he can do with
Speaker 3: that team. And I think the Wise guys were also
Speaker 3: really impressed with how much better the Broncos played last
Speaker 3: year this last week as a team versus what they
Speaker 3: looked like a year ago. And defensively true, but I
Speaker 3: think they were excited about bon Nicks.
Speaker 1: And if you watch the game back and.
Speaker 3: We heard this on the favorites from scouts and from
Speaker 3: professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks
Speaker 3: recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he
Speaker 3: was still getting to know the pace of the game.
Speaker 3: They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked
Speaker 3: the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically
Speaker 3: made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.
Speaker 3: Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot
Speaker 3: of sentiment that this is the right side. The line
Speaker 3: moved from three to.
Speaker 1: Two and a half.
Speaker 3: And I will say, you excited about Tomlin Tomlin is
Speaker 3: the greatest underdog coach possibly in the history of the
Speaker 3: game the past twenty years for sure. Not just great
Speaker 3: as an underdog, great as an underdog winning outright. He
Speaker 3: is just as bad when he is a favorite forty
Speaker 3: one twenty eight and one against spread as a road
Speaker 3: dog in his career thirty two forty and two as
Speaker 3: a road favorite, so it's almost completely flipped right. And
Speaker 3: when he opens as a favorite of three or more
Speaker 3: on the road thirty eight percent against the spread, So
Speaker 3: I would say you're on the right side. Also, we've
Speaker 3: talked about this on the show. You know, we do
Speaker 3: this thing called the Luck Rankings at Action that sort
Speaker 3: of takes the noise out of all the games and
Speaker 3: tells you what the expected score would have been based
Speaker 3: on the stats and if you didn't have the flukiness
Speaker 3: and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness.
Speaker 3: Broncos are one of the three games that has the
Speaker 3: highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the
Speaker 3: Steelers in the and the Broncos.
Speaker 1: So we like the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Here, I'll give you another underdog. I like Falcons plus
Speaker 2: six and a half. I worry about Kirk cousins immobility.
Speaker 2: But I thought Atlanta was at a big coaching disadvantage
Speaker 2: when they faced the Steelers because Arthur Smith knew their
Speaker 2: entire roster and it was Kirk cousins first game back
Speaker 2: off an injury. He was very hesitant, a little like
Speaker 2: if you looked at Aaron Rodgers passing stats. In the
Speaker 2: first game he moved, he had twenty one passes, nineteen
Speaker 2: to the left. He was not going to throw blind
Speaker 2: behind him. He wanted to see the left side of
Speaker 2: the field. He didn't want to get hit from behind.
Speaker 2: And Aaron's great, but that first game back off the accident,
Speaker 2: they're all hesitant. Kirk was hesitant. Philadelphia's defense is not good.
Speaker 2: They spend money on it, they drafted. They were giving
Speaker 2: up seven yards of play to green Bay and green
Speaker 2: Bay's good. But young Atlanta's got players. I think they
Speaker 2: play really well. I know Kirk in big standalone games
Speaker 2: isn't great. Six and a half's a ton. I would
Speaker 2: take Atlanta here, sharper.
Speaker 3: Square totally sharp wise guys like the Falcons here. I'm
Speaker 3: a little hesitant personally, haven't really laid into this game yet,
Speaker 3: but there's a lot of factors that go in the
Speaker 3: direction of what you're talking about. I think the biggest
Speaker 3: concern anybody has. It wasn't just that Kirk Cousins was hesitant.
Speaker 3: There were throws where it looked like he didn't want
Speaker 3: to plant off his injured achilles, and so he was
Speaker 3: short hopping throws that looked like he was throwing off
Speaker 3: of one leg. Right, So I think that was the
Speaker 3: bigger concern, and maybe after a full game he's a
Speaker 3: little more comfortable, you know. I think that what's interesting
Speaker 3: here is to the Falcons advantage their interior line, especially
Speaker 3: at center and right guard. Those are two of the
Speaker 3: best players at their positions in the NFL. The strength
Speaker 3: of the Eagles is their interior pressure, not their edges.
Speaker 3: The strength of the Steelers was their edges. So just
Speaker 3: sort of it's not really intuitive, but the way the
Speaker 3: Falcons play might mitigate the Eagles' greatest advantage defensively.
Speaker 1: So a lot of wise guys are on the on
Speaker 1: the Falcons here.
Speaker 2: I'm going to take one more underdog Giants plus one
Speaker 2: and a half at the Commanders. Daniel Jones. Actually, this
Speaker 2: is a vomit game that nobody wants to watch, But
Speaker 2: I did think. I do think Brian Davis a really
Speaker 2: good coach, and I thought they were bad in the
Speaker 2: first series. Washington was just outplayed by a better quarterback
Speaker 2: and a better team. The Giants were awful. It looked
Speaker 2: like they hadn't practiced. They've actually had. Daniel Jones's five
Speaker 2: to one and one against Washington, when he faces a
Speaker 2: team that's his equal, he can compete. There's no way
Speaker 2: I'm giving any you know, I'm taking any points I
Speaker 2: get in this game. Giants plus one and a half,
Speaker 2: mostly unwatchable, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: Totally sharp. That is the Corner TV game of the week, Kylin.
Speaker 3: It is the game nobody wants to watch unless you
Speaker 3: are betting it. The wise guys will be on the Giants,
Speaker 3: mainly for the reasons you just said. Dave Ball has
Speaker 3: basically done incredibly well against the Commanders. Daniel Jones has
Speaker 3: done well against the Commanders. There's always going to be
Speaker 3: overreaction in Week two, and obviously the wise guys or
Speaker 3: the fans are overjoyed with what they saw from Jaden Daniels. Right,
Speaker 3: his Rookie of the Year odds for offense shrink people
Speaker 3: were piling in on him for Rookie of the Year
Speaker 3: because of how he played, and he was dynamic and
Speaker 3: he made decent enough throws, but also the running ability
Speaker 3: that is not a recipe that they can sustain, and
Speaker 3: it also leads to overreaction in the market. So the
Speaker 3: book maker shaded the number a little bit, and really
Speaker 3: this game should be closer to pick. So you're getting
Speaker 3: about a point a half of value because people are
Speaker 3: so against the Giants and they loved what they saw
Speaker 3: from the commanders.
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Speaker 1: Here's a favorite I like.
Speaker 2: Sometimes I feel that you can get ahead of the
Speaker 2: market for about a week to two. It happens more
Speaker 2: in college because there's so many games on TV. It's
Speaker 2: harder for bookmakers. Sometimes you just if you're a regional
Speaker 2: better and you follow the PAC twelve. I can remember
Speaker 2: years ago getting on an Oregon State team and they
Speaker 2: I knew their personnel really well, and I watched their
Speaker 2: games and had a good friend up there, and it happened.
Speaker 2: Sometimes it doesn't happen a lot in the pros. I'm
Speaker 2: not so sure. We're not three or four weeks away
Speaker 2: from saying CJ. Stroud's the third best quarterback in the league.
Speaker 2: I think he's insane. I mean Greg co Sell on
Speaker 2: my show is like he's making throws that almost nobody
Speaker 2: in the planet can make, like Stafford Burrough Mahomes. Yes,
Speaker 2: I think I had somebody that was at Friday's Bears
Speaker 2: practice before the game saying the ball was on the
Speaker 2: ground more than they'd ever seen it. Caylebby's really struggling.
Speaker 2: Romadunze may not play, Keenan Allen may not play. I
Speaker 2: think CJ. Stroud is he is really something. I mean
Speaker 2: he is that second game he played I think it
Speaker 2: was Baltimore in his career. I was like, wait a minute,
Speaker 2: this is Baltimore. What is he doing. I think this
Speaker 2: could be ugly. I think the Texans are going to win.
Speaker 2: I thought it would. When I guess the line on this,
Speaker 2: I thought it would be closer to six and a half, seven,
Speaker 2: seven and a half. At six, I think i'd take
Speaker 2: the text in Sharper square.
Speaker 1: So look, it's a little bit square.
Speaker 3: The reason it's at six is because it opened at
Speaker 3: six and a half, and the wise guys definitely felt
Speaker 3: that was inflated for exactly the reasons you just said.
Speaker 3: You know, obviously, We've talked about this. I'm from Chicago.
Speaker 1: I love the Bears.
Speaker 3: I will have a text chain on Sundays with all
Speaker 3: my guys from Chicago. I can't even respond because they
Speaker 3: come in so fast, and I'm so anxious about all
Speaker 3: the other bets for me, like, I don't want to
Speaker 3: talk to anybody, right, forty five texts in the first
Speaker 3: half of that Bears game, we thought the Bears had
Speaker 3: already broken. Caleb Williams like he was pushing the ball.
Speaker 3: He wasn't throwing the ball, he was looking at his
Speaker 3: first read and then taking off. He was inaccurate. He
Speaker 3: was throwing too early on deep passes because he already realized,
Speaker 3: oh my god, my offensive line is crap and I
Speaker 3: can't outrun these defensive linemen. So we already looked like
Speaker 3: it was over right, like we've seen it as Bear
Speaker 3: stands a thousand times.
Speaker 1: Obviously we know that's not the case.
Speaker 3: But you couple that and how bad he looked in
Speaker 3: the fact the Bears needed special teams in defense to
Speaker 3: beat the Titans with how good CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud look. He made a throw.
Speaker 3: On a third down, rolling right across his body middle
Speaker 3: of the field, third and nineteen.
Speaker 1: Got it.
Speaker 3: It's the kind of throw you can only make if
Speaker 3: you are an other world talent. We had what third
Speaker 3: and eleven, third and twelve to seal the game, and
Speaker 3: he at Nico Collins on a dart where Nico Collins
Speaker 3: caught it with an inch of space before the sideline
Speaker 3: got a knee down. That ends the game, right, Like CJ.
Speaker 3: Shroud is something special, But that's why the line was
Speaker 3: too high. So at six it's about where it's supposed
Speaker 3: to be. You're not getting much of an advantage, might
Speaker 3: even be a little bit high still at six and
Speaker 3: a half.
Speaker 1: The wise guys like it. So you're playing a bad number.
Speaker 2: Okay, a game every week. I want you to teach
Speaker 2: me and the audience a lesson. I don't get the number.
Speaker 2: So the Lions go to overtime, that's not good. Generally,
Speaker 2: I stay away from teams that go to overtime. You know,
Speaker 2: seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played
Speaker 2: his best game as a pro. This line is seven
Speaker 2: and a half. I still think without Puka Nakua and
Speaker 2: three backup offensive linemen, the Rams moved the ball up
Speaker 2: and down the field in the second half, did everything
Speaker 2: then wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higbe.
Speaker 2: Their tight end is out.
Speaker 1: They were.
Speaker 2: It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups,
Speaker 2: and they move up and down the field. Baker's got
Speaker 2: legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. You know to
Speaker 2: me before, Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half?
Speaker 2: What's the side here?
Speaker 3: Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of
Speaker 3: power ratings, should be bigger favorites. Like I love the
Speaker 3: Lions in this spot and that is a massive number
Speaker 3: to bet.
Speaker 2: It is a quarterback in Baker, it is.
Speaker 1: Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 3: I think that there's a couple of things going on.
Speaker 3: Number One, on the on the Buck side, they are
Speaker 3: getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that opening game, right,
Speaker 3: But you were great against a rebuilding team, and the
Speaker 3: expectations for the Bucks for a lot of people were
Speaker 3: kind of low, and from a public point of view,
Speaker 3: they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable, but he
Speaker 3: played against the team with a defensive line that is
Speaker 3: basically starting from scratch, against a defense that doesn't have
Speaker 3: great defensive backs, so he could kind of have his way.
Speaker 3: The Rams are like their game plan, which they had
Speaker 3: five months to build coming off a playoff game. They
Speaker 3: were so tuned in and they were still losing seventeen
Speaker 3: to three, and they needed a couple penalties to get
Speaker 3: themselves back in a position. And yes, they were moving
Speaker 3: the ball up and down the field because their offensive
Speaker 3: line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball
Speaker 3: and what they did the Rams was brilliant. Matthew Stafford
Speaker 3: one step drop, first redthrow. Aden Hutchinson was in his
Speaker 3: grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing
Speaker 3: it with after about a second and a half, right,
Speaker 3: Baker is not that a player. Baker is not as
Speaker 3: sort of efficient with when he drops back and getting
Speaker 3: to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and
Speaker 3: we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant.
Speaker 3: They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach
Speaker 3: against the spread the past five years, Jared Goff twenty
Speaker 3: six and nine against the spread. Indoors like, this is
Speaker 3: a this is a really good team. I think this
Speaker 3: is the second best roster in the NFC. You could
Speaker 3: argue the Niners are the best. The Lions showed something.
Speaker 3: They're a physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,
Speaker 3: It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going
Speaker 3: for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I
Speaker 3: like the Lions there. I think they are going to
Speaker 3: blow this team away.
Speaker 2: Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed
Speaker 2: a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,
Speaker 2: egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that
Speaker 2: with the Giants in Washington. So what say you?
Speaker 1: Well, look, I do like another favorite.
Speaker 3: It's a little chalky for me, but I do like
Speaker 3: the Cowboys against the Saints. I think, you know, Mike
Speaker 3: McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they are juggernauts during the regular season,
Speaker 3: they are juggernauts as big favorites at home.
Speaker 1: I am not a fan of the Saints.
Speaker 3: I think they played a bad Carolina team and got
Speaker 3: in the exact right position. But Dak is a favorite
Speaker 3: at home. Fifteen and nine against the spread. He's a
Speaker 3: good yeah, past three years as a favorite of six
Speaker 3: or more in his career, thirty one, thirteen and one.
Speaker 3: That's right, Like, he's just great in this spot. And
Speaker 3: so I like to I am on the side of
Speaker 3: the Cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting
Speaker 3: a good number. Here's the game that a lot of
Speaker 3: wise guys have been talking about and has had one
Speaker 3: of the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to
Speaker 3: my stomach, but we're going to bet it.
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2: What if Malik Willis plays?
Speaker 3: I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,
Speaker 3: but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,
Speaker 3: this game was at three and a half. It went
Speaker 3: down to three. Now there's some places where it's two
Speaker 3: and a half. That is not the squares coming in
Speaker 3: and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys
Speaker 3: coming in. And like I think, I think there's a
Speaker 3: couple of things. One the swing, the Packers were in
Speaker 3: what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was
Speaker 3: set before last week's games, the Packers were four and
Speaker 3: a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US
Speaker 3: three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.
Speaker 3: And the way that guy has figured this out is
Speaker 3: they take how much better is he than his backup?
Speaker 3: It's not just about what would the line be if
Speaker 3: he's not playing if what would the line be if
Speaker 3: his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good
Speaker 3: as he is, is not an eight point swing kind
Speaker 3: of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they
Speaker 3: think there was a little bit of inflation in the
Speaker 3: way that they reopen the line from three and a half,
Speaker 3: which is why I got bet down. But also there
Speaker 3: are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,
Speaker 3: if he knows anybody, it's the cults right. For the
Speaker 3: past couple of years, he's had to prepare for the
Speaker 3: Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in their first
Speaker 3: game fifty against the spread the past three seasons. There
Speaker 3: is some sort of overreaction in the market that it
Speaker 3: offers a little bit of value. And then just look
Speaker 3: on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is in trouble.
Speaker 3: They were not great this past week against the Texans.
Speaker 3: They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and they're twenty
Speaker 3: five points twenty five minutes of possession. The other team
Speaker 3: that this applies to from the past week the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 3: So that's another factor to look at. Matt Lafleor. I
Speaker 3: just said, Dan Campbell best coach past five years against spread,
Speaker 3: Matt Lafleur second best spread against the spread.
Speaker 1: So a lot of.
Speaker 3: Indicators here that are leading people to bet the Packers.
Speaker 3: To hold your nose, bet the number kind of thing.
Speaker 3: If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take
Speaker 3: it at two.
Speaker 1: And a half.
Speaker 2: Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network All Odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: He's an Oxford, Mississippi now Celebrannial Friend's new book right, Thompson.
Speaker 2: So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what
Speaker 2: I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a
Speaker 2: bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.
Speaker 3: I can validate that I did have a bunch of
Speaker 3: bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I
Speaker 3: got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of
Speaker 3: us were at Right's house hanging out. And you know
Speaker 3: you've interviewed Right.
Speaker 1: He is the.
Speaker 3: Quintessential Southern personality, great voice, drips accent like and he
Speaker 3: is a Mississippian and he's got this town wired. And
Speaker 3: so we're hanging out his house and starts with barbecue dinner,
Speaker 3: and then it's a few drinks, and then it's a
Speaker 3: few more drinks, and then it's like after midnight and
Speaker 3: we're still sitting in the same place, and it's beautiful
Speaker 3: outside and we're sitting on bourbons. And I get back
Speaker 3: to my hotel and you know how in hotels, like
Speaker 3: there's eight different lights and eight different light switches. You're
Speaker 3: not used to like the layout right, maddening. And so
Speaker 3: when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like
Speaker 3: I can't see anything.
Speaker 1: I need to feel the room.
Speaker 3: And I realized I took out my contacts and I
Speaker 3: hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to
Speaker 3: get like nose to the wall to find the light switches.
Speaker 3: Found the light switch for the hallway, found the light
Speaker 3: switch for the light behind it TV, found the light
Speaker 3: switch for the bathroom. Like felt around and got to
Speaker 3: the desk lights the you know, the side table lights
Speaker 3: by the bed. Could not find the light switch for
Speaker 3: the overhead light. Like, I'm in the wall, cannot find out.
Speaker 3: I go back to all the other light switches. I'm
Speaker 3: putting them up and down. Cannot find it. I had
Speaker 3: to do the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk.
Speaker 3: I'm like, I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise
Speaker 3: you I'm not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this.
Speaker 3: In the morning, I cannot find the light switch for
Speaker 3: my overhead light. And he goes, Okay, what do you
Speaker 3: want me to do? I'm like, do you have any
Speaker 3: idea where the light switches are.
Speaker 1: In my room? He goes, what room are you in?
Speaker 3: I go three twenty five? He goes, all right, let
Speaker 3: me think about it. He goes now, and I don't
Speaker 3: have anything down here that maps it. I was about
Speaker 3: to see it him again. It's after midnight. There's only
Speaker 3: one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but I'm
Speaker 3: about to see him. Any chance you can come up
Speaker 3: to my room and check out where the lights are.
Speaker 3: And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,
Speaker 3: that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say
Speaker 3: after midnight to a god work in the front desk.
Speaker 1: I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure
Speaker 1: it out.
Speaker 3: I put the phone down and I say to myself,
Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have to sleep
Speaker 3: with the light on, like I don't know what else
Speaker 3: to do. And then I gave myself a new Rockney.
Speaker 3: I'm like, Milman, you're gonna find this light switch. You
Speaker 3: can find this light switch again. I'm hands on the wall,
Speaker 3: feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get to the thermostat.
Speaker 3: It is directly next to the thermostat. It looks like
Speaker 3: the thermostat found the light switch, turned it off. Felt
Speaker 3: full relief. Tripped on my way to the bed because
Speaker 3: I couldn't see anything anymore. But I did find that
Speaker 3: light switch. And I didn't insult anybody on the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that would have been a woman at the
Speaker 2: front desk. That's a lawsuit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I come.
Speaker 3: Burn spread clearly. It's so good I cannot find a
Speaker 3: light scratch.
Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna bounce back.
Speaker 1: Good seeing anybody, good, seeing you too, brother, I'll see
Speaker 1: you later.
Speaker 2: The volume