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Speaker 2: time for Sharper Square, Chad Milman, CEEO Action Network. All

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Speaker 2: odds provided by DraftKings. So I was a Will Levis

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Speaker 2: bonehead play from going two too and one. So I

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Speaker 2: was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean, I was wrong

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Speaker 2: on the Carolina side, but other than that, I felt

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Speaker 2: pretty good about it.

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Speaker 1: I could go in.

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Speaker 2: An order of importance, but I was thinking about this.

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Speaker 2: I am above going in order. I just give you

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Speaker 2: my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start

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Speaker 2: with a team that is this close to beating Kansas

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Speaker 2: City arrowhead and I think the Chiefs are a better

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Speaker 2: version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think

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Speaker 2: the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly

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Speaker 2: well coached. I mean the fact that the only way

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Speaker 2: they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.

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Speaker 2: They beat them at their only game. I think Baltimore's

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Speaker 2: really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times

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Speaker 2: on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.

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Speaker 2: It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think

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Speaker 2: Baltimore's pissed. I'm going to swallow the eight and a

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Speaker 2: half Sharper square, so.

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Speaker 3: It's square, but you're not going to find a ton

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Speaker 3: of guys who when they're doing this are excited about

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Speaker 3: betting the Raiders. You mentioned Carolina, Right, I was on

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Speaker 3: Carolina last week too. The wise guys will be on

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Speaker 3: Carolina again this week at six and a half point underdogs,

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Speaker 3: in the same way they're going to be on the Raiders,

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Speaker 3: which started at nine and a half, got up to ten,

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Speaker 3: and then was bet down to nine and a half,

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Speaker 3: than nine, and now eight and a half. So it's

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Speaker 3: getting closer to a number that I think at some

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Speaker 3: point the wise guys will come back in on Baltimore.

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Speaker 3: But at this big of a number, they're just betting

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Speaker 3: the number, and this early in the season, everything tells

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Speaker 3: you that you are playing against the over reaction. Right,

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Speaker 3: everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come

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Speaker 3: within a toenail of tying the chief Yiefs at Arrowhead

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Speaker 3: in a massive game against the Chiefs team that looks

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Speaker 3: like he can break every rule of betting that exists

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Speaker 3: in the universe. Right, the Raiders people were high on

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Speaker 3: they got crushed and they didn't look very good doing it.

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Speaker 3: And Antonio Peers made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in

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Speaker 3: the Athletic that that decision he made on fourth down

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Speaker 3: in his own territory. It was the first time a

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Speaker 3: coach had been down and in his own territory in

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Speaker 3: the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one

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Speaker 3: of the most cowardly calls that has been made in

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Speaker 3: the past eight years. And you could see him on camera.

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Speaker 3: There's the videos of him saying, should I be going

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Speaker 3: for this right now? So there's a sentiment that people

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Speaker 3: are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play, and

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Speaker 3: the great play by the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: So yes, the wise guys are going to be on

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Speaker 1: the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,

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Speaker 2: played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as

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Speaker 2: good as the Niners, that's very hard to do back

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Speaker 2: to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're

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Speaker 2: great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,

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Speaker 2: tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.

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Speaker 2: I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.

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Speaker 2: If they finished fourth, they will be the greatest fourth

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Speaker 2: place team in the history of the league. They've got

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Speaker 2: a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,

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Speaker 2: really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski

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Speaker 2: before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just

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Speaker 2: he's operating at a different level. This was at six.

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Speaker 2: At one point, I think I take the Vikings five

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Speaker 2: and a half. Sharper square wise. Guys are taking the

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Speaker 2: Vikings at five and a half. They took him at six.

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Speaker 2: They still like the Vikings.

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Speaker 3: I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in

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Speaker 3: this game, and part of it is Kyle Shanahan is

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Speaker 3: so good. You and I have talked about this, like,

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Speaker 3: he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It

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Speaker 3: actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And

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Speaker 3: he's also been very good on short weeks on the

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Speaker 3: road eight and two during his career, one of the

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Speaker 3: four best coaches in the past five years on short

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Speaker 3: weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,

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Speaker 3: I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot

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Speaker 3: more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.

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Speaker 3: You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was

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Speaker 3: Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell.

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Speaker 1: They were neck and neck for Rookie of the Year. Coaching.

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Speaker 3: They both had teams that were excellent in one score

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Speaker 3: games they played each other in the playoffs. The Giants

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Speaker 3: win in Minnesota, Brian day Ball wins Coach of the Year.

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Speaker 3: He's getting more credited as the best coach right and

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Speaker 3: Kevin O'Connell had a similar year. And then last year

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Speaker 3: did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down and Brian Dayball's

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Speaker 3: team is cratering when their top quarterback goes down. Then

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Speaker 3: we see what happens last week. A bad quarterback for

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Speaker 3: the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and

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Speaker 3: he has a Cinderella like first half ten for ten

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Speaker 3: on his first ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety

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Speaker 3: nine yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down

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Speaker 3: pass like touchdownass to Jehman Jefferson, Kevin O'Connell is a

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Speaker 3: very good coach, and I think that's another reason why

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Speaker 3: the why guys are in their vikings.

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Speaker 2: So there's two things that I look at with the

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Speaker 2: Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game,

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Speaker 2: and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, like the Jets

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Speaker 2: were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by

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Speaker 2: San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sama. That

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Speaker 2: was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially

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Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses in the league. For a quarterback,

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Speaker 2: I don't think him play. I don't think Will Levis

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Speaker 2: can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I think

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Speaker 2: his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on the SEC.

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Speaker 2: That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco

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Speaker 2: makes everybody. So does Andy Reid and McVeigh. They make

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Speaker 2: a lot of people look bad. In the Week one,

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Speaker 2: I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team.

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Speaker 2: When this number got up to four, Now I sound

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Speaker 2: like such a square on this, but four is an

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Speaker 2: interesting number. Here's how I view four. I like favorites

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Speaker 2: four because the market doesn't want to create force. They'd

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Speaker 2: rather you be three to three and a half. When

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Speaker 2: the market has to go to four, their signaling okay,

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Speaker 2: it is just a better team. This started for the

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Speaker 2: Jets for a better team. They're pissed. I don't think

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Speaker 2: Will Levis can play. Home Field's never met anything in Nashville.

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Speaker 2: I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 3: Well, otherwise guys like the Titans and they're kind of

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Speaker 3: holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,

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Speaker 3: and that number four is really important, and I'm glad

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Speaker 3: you bring it up, and we'll do that in the

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Speaker 3: last part of my soliloquy here. The Jets had were

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Speaker 3: physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is

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Speaker 3: supposed to be their strength, as you noted, eh straight

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Speaker 3: scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking

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Speaker 3: scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get

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Speaker 3: to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Bill

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Speaker 3: Callahan showed last week that he can do something really

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Speaker 3: interesting with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective.

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Speaker 3: You know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary

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Speaker 3: offensive line coach, left the Browns this past season to

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Speaker 3: go work with his son revamp the Titans offensive line.

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Speaker 3: The Titans defense did not give up a touchdown to

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Speaker 3: the Bears, right like the Bears were scoring on special

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Speaker 3: teams and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis,

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Speaker 3: as you said, is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys

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Speaker 3: are betting the number here. The four is key teams

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Speaker 3: that open at four or higher at home in weeks

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Speaker 3: one and two sixty percent against the spread the last

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Speaker 3: twenty years, teams that open at four or higher at

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Speaker 3: home after losing their last game against the spread, which

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Speaker 3: the text with the Titans did sixty four percent since

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. More stat that is very interesting. The

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Speaker 3: Jets were dominated on Monday night, and now of a

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Speaker 3: defense that was on the field for a ton of

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Speaker 3: plays going back short week to be against another really

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Speaker 3: physical team. That's what the Titans want to be. Teams

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Speaker 3: with fewer than twenty five minutes of possession in Week

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Speaker 3: one six and twenty five against the spread in Week two,

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Speaker 3: that's nineteen percent the jtal So look, I'm with you,

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Speaker 3: like this isn't going to be one of my five

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Speaker 3: best plays because I don't trust Will Levis and it's

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Speaker 3: and it's it's becoming clear in this league there is

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Speaker 3: such a delta between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking

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Speaker 3: and not it's becoming too much of a hindrance for

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Speaker 3: teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're

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Speaker 3: gonna have to play the quarterback in some situations. And

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Speaker 3: this to me is a scary spot. The Wise guys

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Speaker 3: aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.

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Speaker 2: I want to take Denver plus two and a half

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Speaker 2: against the Steelers, and here's what, Thank god, I thought

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Speaker 2: it was a really tough spot for both Nicks in

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Speaker 2: the opener loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.

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Speaker 2: You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's

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Speaker 2: got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him

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Speaker 2: to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.

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Speaker 2: He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another

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Speaker 2: another ex player who I respect, tell me this week

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Speaker 2: he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may

200
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Speaker 2: not be the best year two three, four, he's going

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Speaker 2: to have the best year. The rest of them have

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Speaker 2: defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been

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Speaker 2: good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I

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Speaker 2: think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers as dogs,

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Speaker 2: not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: One hundred percent, ding ding ding ding Ding. Wise guys

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Speaker 3: love the Broncos. Here's probably going to take a little

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Speaker 3: piece of the Broncos on the money line as well.

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Speaker 3: Great spot for bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys

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Speaker 3: they love Seattle. They're really impressed with Seattle's defense, so

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Speaker 3: love Mike mcd ronald and what he can do with

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Speaker 3: that team. And I think the Wise guys were also

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Speaker 3: really impressed with how much better the Broncos played last

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Speaker 3: year this last week as a team versus what they

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Speaker 3: looked like a year ago. And defensively true, but I

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Speaker 3: think they were excited about bon Nicks.

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Speaker 1: And if you watch the game back and.

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Speaker 3: We heard this on the favorites from scouts and from

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Speaker 3: professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks

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Speaker 3: recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he

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Speaker 3: was still getting to know the pace of the game.

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Speaker 3: They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked

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Speaker 3: the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically

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Speaker 3: made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.

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Speaker 3: Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of sentiment that this is the right side. The line

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Speaker 3: moved from three to.

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Speaker 1: Two and a half.

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Speaker 3: And I will say, you excited about Tomlin Tomlin is

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Speaker 3: the greatest underdog coach possibly in the history of the

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Speaker 3: game the past twenty years for sure. Not just great

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Speaker 3: as an underdog, great as an underdog winning outright. He

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Speaker 3: is just as bad when he is a favorite forty

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Speaker 3: one twenty eight and one against spread as a road

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Speaker 3: dog in his career thirty two forty and two as

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Speaker 3: a road favorite, so it's almost completely flipped right. And

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Speaker 3: when he opens as a favorite of three or more

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Speaker 3: on the road thirty eight percent against the spread, So

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Speaker 3: I would say you're on the right side. Also, we've

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Speaker 3: talked about this on the show. You know, we do

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Speaker 3: this thing called the Luck Rankings at Action that sort

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Speaker 3: of takes the noise out of all the games and

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Speaker 3: tells you what the expected score would have been based

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Speaker 3: on the stats and if you didn't have the flukiness

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Speaker 3: and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness.

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Speaker 3: Broncos are one of the three games that has the

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Speaker 3: highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the

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Speaker 3: Steelers in the and the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: So we like the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Here, I'll give you another underdog. I like Falcons plus

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Speaker 2: six and a half. I worry about Kirk cousins immobility.

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Speaker 2: But I thought Atlanta was at a big coaching disadvantage

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Speaker 2: when they faced the Steelers because Arthur Smith knew their

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Speaker 2: entire roster and it was Kirk cousins first game back

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Speaker 2: off an injury. He was very hesitant, a little like

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Speaker 2: if you looked at Aaron Rodgers passing stats. In the

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Speaker 2: first game he moved, he had twenty one passes, nineteen

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Speaker 2: to the left. He was not going to throw blind

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Speaker 2: behind him. He wanted to see the left side of

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Speaker 2: the field. He didn't want to get hit from behind.

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Speaker 2: And Aaron's great, but that first game back off the accident,

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Speaker 2: they're all hesitant. Kirk was hesitant. Philadelphia's defense is not good.

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Speaker 2: They spend money on it, they drafted. They were giving

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Speaker 2: up seven yards of play to green Bay and green

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Speaker 2: Bay's good. But young Atlanta's got players. I think they

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Speaker 2: play really well. I know Kirk in big standalone games

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Speaker 2: isn't great. Six and a half's a ton. I would

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Speaker 2: take Atlanta here, sharper.

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Speaker 3: Square totally sharp wise guys like the Falcons here. I'm

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Speaker 3: a little hesitant personally, haven't really laid into this game yet,

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Speaker 3: but there's a lot of factors that go in the

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Speaker 3: direction of what you're talking about. I think the biggest

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Speaker 3: concern anybody has. It wasn't just that Kirk Cousins was hesitant.

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Speaker 3: There were throws where it looked like he didn't want

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Speaker 3: to plant off his injured achilles, and so he was

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Speaker 3: short hopping throws that looked like he was throwing off

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Speaker 3: of one leg. Right, So I think that was the

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Speaker 3: bigger concern, and maybe after a full game he's a

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Speaker 3: little more comfortable, you know. I think that what's interesting

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Speaker 3: here is to the Falcons advantage their interior line, especially

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Speaker 3: at center and right guard. Those are two of the

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Speaker 3: best players at their positions in the NFL. The strength

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Speaker 3: of the Eagles is their interior pressure, not their edges.

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Speaker 3: The strength of the Steelers was their edges. So just

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Speaker 3: sort of it's not really intuitive, but the way the

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Speaker 3: Falcons play might mitigate the Eagles' greatest advantage defensively.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of wise guys are on the on

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Speaker 1: the Falcons here.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take one more underdog Giants plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half at the Commanders. Daniel Jones. Actually, this

291
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,400
Speaker 2: is a vomit game that nobody wants to watch, But

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Speaker 2: I did think. I do think Brian Davis a really

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Speaker 2: good coach, and I thought they were bad in the

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Speaker 2: first series. Washington was just outplayed by a better quarterback

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Speaker 2: and a better team. The Giants were awful. It looked

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Speaker 2: like they hadn't practiced. They've actually had. Daniel Jones's five

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Speaker 2: to one and one against Washington, when he faces a

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Speaker 2: team that's his equal, he can compete. There's no way

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Speaker 2: I'm giving any you know, I'm taking any points I

300
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:29,840
Speaker 2: get in this game. Giants plus one and a half,

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00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 2: mostly unwatchable, Sharper Square.

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Speaker 3: Totally sharp. That is the Corner TV game of the week, Kylin.

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Speaker 3: It is the game nobody wants to watch unless you

304
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Speaker 3: are betting it. The wise guys will be on the Giants,

305
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Speaker 3: mainly for the reasons you just said. Dave Ball has

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Speaker 3: basically done incredibly well against the Commanders. Daniel Jones has

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00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 3: done well against the Commanders. There's always going to be

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00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,320
Speaker 3: overreaction in Week two, and obviously the wise guys or

309
00:15:56,400 --> 00:16:01,760
Speaker 3: the fans are overjoyed with what they saw from Jaden Daniels. Right,

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00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,640
Speaker 3: his Rookie of the Year odds for offense shrink people

311
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 3: were piling in on him for Rookie of the Year

312
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 3: because of how he played, and he was dynamic and

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00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,960
Speaker 3: he made decent enough throws, but also the running ability

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00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,920
Speaker 3: that is not a recipe that they can sustain, and

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00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 3: it also leads to overreaction in the market. So the

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00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 3: book maker shaded the number a little bit, and really

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00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,040
Speaker 3: this game should be closer to pick. So you're getting

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00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 3: about a point a half of value because people are

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00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,440
Speaker 3: so against the Giants and they loved what they saw

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Speaker 3: from the commanders.

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Speaker 1: Here's a favorite I like.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes I feel that you can get ahead of the

353
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 2: market for about a week to two. It happens more

354
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,680
Speaker 2: in college because there's so many games on TV. It's

355
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,640
Speaker 2: harder for bookmakers. Sometimes you just if you're a regional

356
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 2: better and you follow the PAC twelve. I can remember

357
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 2: years ago getting on an Oregon State team and they

358
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 2: I knew their personnel really well, and I watched their

359
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 2: games and had a good friend up there, and it happened.

360
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 2: Sometimes it doesn't happen a lot in the pros. I'm

361
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,919
Speaker 2: not so sure. We're not three or four weeks away

362
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 2: from saying CJ. Stroud's the third best quarterback in the league.

363
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 2: I think he's insane. I mean Greg co Sell on

364
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 2: my show is like he's making throws that almost nobody

365
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 2: in the planet can make, like Stafford Burrough Mahomes. Yes,

366
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 2: I think I had somebody that was at Friday's Bears

367
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 2: practice before the game saying the ball was on the

368
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 2: ground more than they'd ever seen it. Caylebby's really struggling.

369
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 2: Romadunze may not play, Keenan Allen may not play. I

370
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:15,440
Speaker 2: think CJ. Stroud is he is really something. I mean

371
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 2: he is that second game he played I think it

372
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 2: was Baltimore in his career. I was like, wait a minute,

373
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: this is Baltimore. What is he doing. I think this

374
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 2: could be ugly. I think the Texans are going to win.

375
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 2: I thought it would. When I guess the line on this,

376
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 2: I thought it would be closer to six and a half, seven,

377
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 2: seven and a half. At six, I think i'd take

378
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,159
Speaker 2: the text in Sharper square.

379
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,360
Speaker 1: So look, it's a little bit square.

380
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 3: The reason it's at six is because it opened at

381
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 3: six and a half, and the wise guys definitely felt

382
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 3: that was inflated for exactly the reasons you just said.

383
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 3: You know, obviously, We've talked about this. I'm from Chicago.

384
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:50,360
Speaker 1: I love the Bears.

385
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 3: I will have a text chain on Sundays with all

386
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 3: my guys from Chicago. I can't even respond because they

387
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 3: come in so fast, and I'm so anxious about all

388
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 3: the other bets for me, like, I don't want to

389
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 3: talk to anybody, right, forty five texts in the first

390
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,360
Speaker 3: half of that Bears game, we thought the Bears had

391
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 3: already broken. Caleb Williams like he was pushing the ball.

392
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 3: He wasn't throwing the ball, he was looking at his

393
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 3: first read and then taking off. He was inaccurate. He

394
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 3: was throwing too early on deep passes because he already realized,

395
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 3: oh my god, my offensive line is crap and I

396
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,439
Speaker 3: can't outrun these defensive linemen. So we already looked like

397
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 3: it was over right, like we've seen it as Bear

398
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 3: stands a thousand times.

399
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 1: Obviously we know that's not the case.

400
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 3: But you couple that and how bad he looked in

401
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 3: the fact the Bears needed special teams in defense to

402
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 3: beat the Titans with how good CJ.

403
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: Stroud look. He made a throw.

404
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 3: On a third down, rolling right across his body middle

405
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 3: of the field, third and nineteen.

406
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 1: Got it.

407
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 3: It's the kind of throw you can only make if

408
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 3: you are an other world talent. We had what third

409
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: and eleven, third and twelve to seal the game, and

410
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 3: he at Nico Collins on a dart where Nico Collins

411
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 3: caught it with an inch of space before the sideline

412
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 3: got a knee down. That ends the game, right, Like CJ.

413
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 3: Shroud is something special, But that's why the line was

414
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 3: too high. So at six it's about where it's supposed

415
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 3: to be. You're not getting much of an advantage, might

416
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 3: even be a little bit high still at six and

417
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 3: a half.

418
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: The wise guys like it. So you're playing a bad number.

419
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 2: Okay, a game every week. I want you to teach

420
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 2: me and the audience a lesson. I don't get the number.

421
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 2: So the Lions go to overtime, that's not good. Generally,

422
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 2: I stay away from teams that go to overtime. You know,

423
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 2: seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played

424
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 2: his best game as a pro. This line is seven

425
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: and a half. I still think without Puka Nakua and

426
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 2: three backup offensive linemen, the Rams moved the ball up

427
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 2: and down the field in the second half, did everything

428
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 2: then wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higbe.

429
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: Their tight end is out.

430
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 1: They were.

431
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 2: It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups,

432
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 2: and they move up and down the field. Baker's got

433
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. You know to

434
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: me before, Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half?

435
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 2: What's the side here?

436
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 3: Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of

437
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:31,439
Speaker 3: power ratings, should be bigger favorites. Like I love the

438
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 3: Lions in this spot and that is a massive number

439
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 3: to bet.

440
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,719
Speaker 2: It is a quarterback in Baker, it is.

441
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: Well, here's the thing.

442
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 3: I think that there's a couple of things going on.

443
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: Number One, on the on the Buck side, they are

444
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 3: getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that opening game, right,

445
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 3: But you were great against a rebuilding team, and the

446
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 3: expectations for the Bucks for a lot of people were

447
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 3: kind of low, and from a public point of view,

448
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 3: they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable, but he

449
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 3: played against the team with a defensive line that is

450
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 3: basically starting from scratch, against a defense that doesn't have

451
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 3: great defensive backs, so he could kind of have his way.

452
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 3: The Rams are like their game plan, which they had

453
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 3: five months to build coming off a playoff game. They

454
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 3: were so tuned in and they were still losing seventeen

455
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: to three, and they needed a couple penalties to get

456
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: themselves back in a position. And yes, they were moving

457
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 3: the ball up and down the field because their offensive

458
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 3: line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball

459
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: and what they did the Rams was brilliant. Matthew Stafford

460
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:51,719
Speaker 3: one step drop, first redthrow. Aden Hutchinson was in his

461
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 3: grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing

462
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 3: it with after about a second and a half, right,

463
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 3: Baker is not that a player. Baker is not as

464
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 3: sort of efficient with when he drops back and getting

465
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 3: to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and

466
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 3: we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant.

467
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 3: They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach

468
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 3: against the spread the past five years, Jared Goff twenty

469
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 3: six and nine against the spread. Indoors like, this is

470
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 3: a this is a really good team. I think this

471
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 3: is the second best roster in the NFC. You could

472
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 3: argue the Niners are the best. The Lions showed something.

473
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 3: They're a physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,

474
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 3: It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going

475
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 3: for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I

476
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 3: like the Lions there. I think they are going to

477
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 3: blow this team away.

478
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 2: Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed

479
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 2: a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,

480
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 2: egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that

481
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,479
Speaker 2: with the Giants in Washington. So what say you?

482
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 1: Well, look, I do like another favorite.

483
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 3: It's a little chalky for me, but I do like

484
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 3: the Cowboys against the Saints. I think, you know, Mike

485
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:16,719
Speaker 3: McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they are juggernauts during the regular season,

486
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: they are juggernauts as big favorites at home.

487
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 1: I am not a fan of the Saints.

488
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 3: I think they played a bad Carolina team and got

489
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 3: in the exact right position. But Dak is a favorite

490
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: at home. Fifteen and nine against the spread. He's a

491
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 3: good yeah, past three years as a favorite of six

492
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 3: or more in his career, thirty one, thirteen and one.

493
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: That's right, Like, he's just great in this spot. And

494
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 3: so I like to I am on the side of

495
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 3: the Cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting

496
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: a good number. Here's the game that a lot of

497
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 3: wise guys have been talking about and has had one

498
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 3: of the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to

499
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: my stomach, but we're going to bet it.

500
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers.

501
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 2: What if Malik Willis plays?

502
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 3: I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,

503
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,

504
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 3: this game was at three and a half. It went

505
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: down to three. Now there's some places where it's two

506
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 3: and a half. That is not the squares coming in

507
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 3: and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys

508
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 3: coming in. And like I think, I think there's a

509
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 3: couple of things. One the swing, the Packers were in

510
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was

511
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: set before last week's games, the Packers were four and

512
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 3: a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US

513
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 3: three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.

514
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.

515
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 3: And the way that guy has figured this out is

516
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 3: they take how much better is he than his backup?

517
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 3: It's not just about what would the line be if

518
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:05,719
Speaker 3: he's not playing if what would the line be if

519
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 3: his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good

520
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 3: as he is, is not an eight point swing kind

521
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 3: of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they

522
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 3: think there was a little bit of inflation in the

523
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 3: way that they reopen the line from three and a half,

524
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 3: which is why I got bet down. But also there

525
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 3: are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,

526
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: if he knows anybody, it's the cults right. For the

527
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 3: past couple of years, he's had to prepare for the

528
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in their first

529
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 3: game fifty against the spread the past three seasons. There

530
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 3: is some sort of overreaction in the market that it

531
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: offers a little bit of value. And then just look

532
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 3: on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is in trouble.

533
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 3: They were not great this past week against the Texans.

534
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 3: They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and they're twenty

535
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: five points twenty five minutes of possession. The other team

536
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 3: that this applies to from the past week the Indianapolis Colts.

537
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 3: So that's another factor to look at. Matt Lafleor. I

538
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 3: just said, Dan Campbell best coach past five years against spread,

539
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 3: Matt Lafleur second best spread against the spread.

540
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: So a lot of.

541
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: Indicators here that are leading people to bet the Packers.

542
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: To hold your nose, bet the number kind of thing.

543
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 3: If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take

544
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 3: it at two.

545
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: And a half.

546
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 2: Chad Millman, c CEO Action Network All Odds provided by DraftKings.

547
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 2: He's an Oxford, Mississippi now Celebrannial Friend's new book right, Thompson.

548
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 2: So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what

549
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a

550
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.

551
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 3: I can validate that I did have a bunch of

552
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I

553
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of

554
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 3: us were at Right's house hanging out. And you know

555
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: you've interviewed Right.

556
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: He is the.

557
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: Quintessential Southern personality, great voice, drips accent like and he

558
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 3: is a Mississippian and he's got this town wired. And

559
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 3: so we're hanging out his house and starts with barbecue dinner,

560
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 3: and then it's a few drinks, and then it's a

561
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 3: few more drinks, and then it's like after midnight and

562
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 3: we're still sitting in the same place, and it's beautiful

563
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 3: outside and we're sitting on bourbons. And I get back

564
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,959
Speaker 3: to my hotel and you know how in hotels, like

565
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 3: there's eight different lights and eight different light switches. You're

566
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 3: not used to like the layout right, maddening. And so

567
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like

568
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 3: I can't see anything.

569
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: I need to feel the room.

570
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: And I realized I took out my contacts and I

571
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 3: hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to

572
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 3: get like nose to the wall to find the light switches.

573
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 3: Found the light switch for the hallway, found the light

574
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 3: switch for the light behind it TV, found the light

575
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: switch for the bathroom. Like felt around and got to

576
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 3: the desk lights the you know, the side table lights

577
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 3: by the bed. Could not find the light switch for

578
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 3: the overhead light. Like, I'm in the wall, cannot find out.

579
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: I go back to all the other light switches. I'm

580
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 3: putting them up and down. Cannot find it. I had

581
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 3: to do the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk.

582
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 3: I'm like, I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise

583
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,479
Speaker 3: you I'm not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this.

584
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 3: In the morning, I cannot find the light switch for

585
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 3: my overhead light. And he goes, Okay, what do you

586
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 3: want me to do? I'm like, do you have any

587
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 3: idea where the light switches are.

588
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: In my room? He goes, what room are you in?

589
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 3: I go three twenty five? He goes, all right, let

590
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 3: me think about it. He goes now, and I don't

591
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: have anything down here that maps it. I was about

592
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: to see it him again. It's after midnight. There's only

593
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but I'm

594
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 3: about to see him. Any chance you can come up

595
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: to my room and check out where the lights are.

596
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 3: And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,

597
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 3: that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say

598
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: after midnight to a god work in the front desk.

599
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure

600
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: it out.

601
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: I put the phone down and I say to myself,

602
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have to sleep

603
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 3: with the light on, like I don't know what else

604
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 3: to do. And then I gave myself a new Rockney.

605
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 3: I'm like, Milman, you're gonna find this light switch. You

606
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 3: can find this light switch again. I'm hands on the wall,

607
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 3: feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get to the thermostat.

608
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 3: It is directly next to the thermostat. It looks like

609
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: the thermostat found the light switch, turned it off. Felt

610
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: full relief. Tripped on my way to the bed because

611
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 3: I couldn't see anything anymore. But I did find that

612
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 3: light switch. And I didn't insult anybody on the way.

613
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that would have been a woman at the

614
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: front desk. That's a lawsuit.

615
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I come.

616
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 3: Burn spread clearly. It's so good I cannot find a

617
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 3: light scratch.

618
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna bounce back.

619
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: Good seeing anybody, good, seeing you too, brother, I'll see

620
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: you later.

621
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: The volume