WEBVTT - Jobs, Markets, and The Economy 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.479 called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.720 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, so we 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:27.360 had the I s M number come in a little 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:31.240 bit of a disappointment there. Um, the jobs number was 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.520 a little bit of a disappointment to four and thirty 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.040 one thousand. We were looking for four ninety although still 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:40.839 um solid, robust is the word being used, and we 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.000 had an upward revision last month. But as Katie, as 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.479 you pointed out earlier, the UH two's ten still inverted? 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.639 Is it still inverted? Still inverted? Oh mg? Sarah House 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:55.160 joins us right now, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. Sarah, 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:59.000 we are terrified now because you know, the yield curve 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.280 was able to predict the pandemic before we even knew 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:06.160 COVID existed. What is it telling us now? I told 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:09.000 us a little about the potential for a recession over 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:13.039 the past cycle or so, especially given the feeds involvement 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:16.360 in in asset purchases. And I think one of the 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:19.480 things we learned from today's employment report is that even 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:23.280 as we have some moderation and growth, momentum overall remains 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:26.080 strong in the US economy. So I think there's still 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:28.720 a lot more growth to be squeezed out out of 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.880 the economy before we need to get too worried about 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:33.839 recession fears. Right now, Okay, so growth to be still 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:36.440 squeezed out of the economy. What about the labor market? 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:40.720 Because again Headline disappointed, there were definitely some bright spots 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:45.440 in their net net. What is your takeaway net net? 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:47.760 I think this is a still solid report. So yes, 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:51.160 it was a little bit lighter than expectations, but you know, 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.480 only by roughly sixty versus of the Bloomberg insensus, So 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:56.680 that's not a big miss in the grand scheme of 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.920 the post COVID recovery. And I think in certainly it 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:03.520 showed that we still have pretty decent momentum. So you 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:05.800 have to remember this is a much cleaner read on 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:10.280 the underlying trend and hiring. So in January that number 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:14.760 was boosted by some really favorable seasonal factors. February was 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:18.520 likely reflecting a bounced back of the amicron waves that 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:22.360 was hidden by those those favorable seasonal factories in January. 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:26.000 So we're still seeing a real solid pace of of hiring, 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:29.600 and importantly, it's still strong enough to keep that labor 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:32.400 market tightening even as you have more workers coming back 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:34.799 into the labor force. Yeah, we see wages up five 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.600 point six percent year over year. That's a number I 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.600 like to see as high as possible, Sarah, because I 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:44.560 love it when people get paid more. But are we 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:48.880 going to start hearing people worry about a price wage spiral? 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.600 I think, if anything, some of those fears have have 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.880 abated a little bit over the past couple of months. So, yes, 0:02:56.919 --> 0:03:00.480 you're seeing wages up five point six percent over the here, 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:03.320 but if you look at what the recent trend is, 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:07.080 so over the past three months, average hourly earnings have 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.160 increased at a four and a half percent annualized rates, 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.120 we're actually seeing a little bit of moderation. And this 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:16.000 fits with the fact that while overall demand for workers 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.400 remains really strong, that the pace of increase in that 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:22.880 demand has has really leveled off. So you know, from 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:27.040 from outright standpoint, demand remains strong, but it's not increasing 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.800 without abandoned. So I think that's keeping employers perhaps a 0:03:30.840 --> 0:03:35.560 little bit more um. They're they're able to perhaps um 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.240 not to raise wages at such a frenzied pace and 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:42.280 and hopefully prevent that that wage price file. Let me 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:44.400 ask you to be so dangerous. Let me ask you 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:48.840 kind of a political question, Um, are the wage increases 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:50.960 keeping up with inflation? I mean, it's not really a 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:53.440 political question, right, it's a matter of fact, depending on 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:57.360 which indexes you look at. Yeah, I'd say that's more 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.440 of a mathematical question. So whether you're looking at the 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:05.080 PC deflator, the CPI on an average hourly earnings basis, no, 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:08.920 they're not keeping up for the typical worker. But I 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:12.600 think you have to take take into consideration the fact 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.120 that we've added so many jobs over the past year. 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.400 So we've added six and a half million jobs, and 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:20.400 so when you look at the aggregate income being derived 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:23.760 from the labor market, it is enough to outpace inflation. 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.479 And so that's limiting or at least blendings on the 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:30.960 impact of the fiscal support of stride up and what 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:35.479 that means for real household income um over over the 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.400 coming months. So it is certainly tight for you know, 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:41.760 for individual workers and individual households. But in terms of 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:45.440 the aggregate income picture, the fact that we're adding so 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:49.320 many jobs is supporting the overall income outlook. Well, Sarah, 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:51.400 I am going to ask you political questions since we 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:55.640 are awaiting remarks from President Biden on today's numbers. Curious 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.440 how you think the administration is probably reacting to some 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:03.080 of the figures we saw this morning. So I think 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:05.279 in as I said, I mean, overall, this is a 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:08.240 pretty decent report. So we see that the labor market 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:11.480 continues to tighten. We're getting more workers back into the 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:14.840 labor force, so that's signaling that they are able and 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.640 willing to work. And so I think this is this 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.440 is still strong, strong report, even if we did see 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:24.119 that that pace of hiring temper versus versus the past 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.360 few months, and we'd expect that pace of hiring to 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:29.159 just slow as we get into a more mature phase 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:35.719 of the recovery. Sarah, Um, just just looking at inflation 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:40.200 here looking out, are you sanguine that it's going to 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.880 come back down as we get into um, you know, 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.520 as we get into the base effects of what we 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:49.680 saw at the end of last year. So the base 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:52.920 effects will certainly help, but I think it's still going 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.800 to be pretty painful over you know, the next year 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:58.320 year and a half or so. So we're still looking 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:00.800 for the core PC deflator, so you know, kind of 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:04.400 level setting with with the fence two percent target. So 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.280 we still expect that to be around four and a 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:08.880 half percent at the end of this year. So while 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:11.760 we're probably close to a peak um here in the 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:13.560 next month or two, a lot of that depends on 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.640 just what happens with the oil and gasoline prices. We're 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:20.200 still looking at a pretty painful rate of inflation for 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:24.560 consumers and for policymakers for that matter. All Right, Sarah, 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:26.920 great to get um your inside. Thank you so much 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:28.800 for joining us. Always a pleasure talking to you. Sarah 0:06:28.800 --> 0:06:36.480 House there, senior economist over at Wells Fargo Securities. I 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:41.560 am sitting in the interactive broker studio with four unmasked people. 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:46.040 It's amazing. It brings a tear of joy to my eye. Um, 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:50.320 Lisa Brahmowitz and Tom Keene in here at Bloomberg Surveillance Fame. 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:56.279 Katie Greifeld she'll be famous someday for Bloomberg et f 0:06:56.360 --> 0:06:58.880 i Q. That's a show that we co host together. Actually, 0:06:58.960 --> 0:07:01.760 thank you every Monday on one PM. That's the middle 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:07.120 of surveillance NAP. I had quite a rudening route awakening, 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:11.440 I should say. Last week. You guys are all apartment dwellers, right, 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.440 you all live in the city. I got a gas 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:17.640 bill for five hundred and fifty dollars natural gas for 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.200 the month that I wasn't really counting on, and I 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.320 just thought, yeah, that that kind of thing can throw 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.440 a real wrench into your finances. And the reason I 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.480 bring it up is because overnight in the UK the 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:33.240 cap was lifted on the natural gas um for residential customers. 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:35.680 Their bills are going to go up more than fifty 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:39.400 percent overnight. That for a lot of people can drive 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:41.640 you into poverty. That can cross the line. And this 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:43.720 is what we're talking about earlier, which is the new 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:46.560 inflation is frankly a memory for those with a bit 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.520 of gray hair of the frenzy we lived in where 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:51.680 it was item to item. I looked at cheese pizza 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:55.720 slices today, But like you say, it's utilities as well, 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:58.480 and certainly every report we have from Europe is as 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:01.240 grim as the appropriate word, and not just Europe. In 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:06.720 Sri Lanka, I saw there were uh riots, people gathered 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:11.120 around the palace. Social issue in Indonesia. This is really serious. 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.200 And this is where you get into this word controls 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:15.960 or you have price controls and such. And it goes 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.600 back to Lisa. This goes back to Japan and y 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:23.040 CC yield curve controls. It is institutions trying to control 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.000 whatever cards are dealt right now. The big card is 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:29.119 inflation and then of course how much people are getting 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:31.800 paid and how that dovetails into it in otherwids can 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.040 they afford it? And okay, if they kind of afford it, 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:36.960 and this is sort of the big fear. Does that 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.720 mean that companies will just keep jacking up prices more? 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:43.000 I mean, yes, you're getting the like that's the spiral, right. 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:46.800 I wonder how much of this average hourly wage growth 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.600 real people see? I mean, how many times a year 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:53.200 do you get a raise if you're um an hourly worker? Actually, 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:54.920 you know what? I will take the other side of that. 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.319 There have been a number of reports about how Amazon 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:02.360 other manufacturing kinds of jobs, other areas where there's scarcity 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:06.440 of labor, they're actually getting quarterly raises. There even some 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:10.160 places you're starting to see doing away of the annual 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:14.480 review and a regular pace of increases in doing the 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:17.480 way of the annual review. That's music to my ears. No, 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:19.760 but I mean I've heard of this time. I mean honestly, 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.280 I we hear about it all the time and how 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.040 much wages are going up. To me, I have a 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:28.600 daily review with alf New Jersey. No, it does not 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:32.800 most definitely not lucky. The badge works the next day. 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.480 You know, it's it's been a crazy march. It's it's 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.680 truly an historic quarter. And as I said to Lisa 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:42.840 eight hours ago, the measurement of uncertainty into this April 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.840 is we're where we were in January. We have no 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:49.520 clue what's coming. Well, I just am concerned about the inflation. 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.360 And a client wrote in this morning and said, could 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.199 this be, you know, the beginning of a new Arab 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:59.839 spring where we start to see real uh social str 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:03.880 life when it comes to rising prices. Imagine if you 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.200 imagine you're in the UK, you're someone barely above the 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:09.240 poverty line, and all of a sudden, your monthly gas bill, 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:12.360 which you have to pay to power your appliances and 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:16.439 heat your home goes up. Let's not conflate all inflation 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.439 as the same. Right, The Arab spring is partly because 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:21.560 of the idea of Ukraine and what's going on there 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:23.720 with the wheat output, the idea that a lot of 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.960 that goes directly to Northern Africa, goes to some of 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:30.040 these areas that are less privileged, So you're gonna see 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:33.000 wheat prices surge. You're seeing oil and gas prices surge 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:35.280 in certain places on the heels of what's going on 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:39.440 all all places, in all places in the US. It 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:43.800 is a unique story because they're also is wage inflation. 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:47.880 There's also positive signs, and it's stemming not just from 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:51.160 the stiflationary shock that we're seeing out of Europe. And 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:53.559 I think that that's an important distinction. There's not much 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.840 going on. We have fourteen and a half percent nominal 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:01.160 GDP last quarter. This court will be half that. I 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:03.760 like what Neil Irwin said over to Exios in the hour. 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.320 He said, this is a boom economy. It's a boom 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:10.000 economy for everyone. No, it never is, but look around 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:12.679 New York City, right now, I mean rents are ridiculous. 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:16.520 The home price I I, at least I can't get 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:21.480 used to home prices. No, that's also not the case. 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.240 It's also not just a US problem, right, that's another 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:26.520 problem that you see, at least in the UK and 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:31.319 in Germany. Um, I think prices rising are more painful 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:34.040 than maybe do you think even if wages are coming up? 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.959 And I think, um, when I when I hear about 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:41.079 the boom economy, I wonder, then how come recession odds 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:45.360 are so high for next years? Katie, question Katie. The 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:49.800 path for those younger is you live with four people 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.400 in Chelsea or the Lower East Side, and then you 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:56.560 live with two people, and then there's that big jump 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.560 where you live with yourself. Someday I'll live in Brooklyn. 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:03.960 If hip and cool and all that is that broken 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:08.000 with this New York City inflation, that path, It's interesting. 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.120 I was having a conversation with a friend my age. 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:12.720 It's okay, it's surveillance. You can say I was having 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.280 a conversation in a bar with a friend of mine. Okay, 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:19.320 we're actually a rooftop bar. It was lovely. The weather 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:21.480 wasn't as terrible as it is now. But she moved 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.720 to London after college to work at a bank over there, 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:26.200 and she would like to come back to the US. 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.200 But she was saying, I am almost thirty. I don't 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.120 want to live with a room. Are you ready for this? 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.960 But that's the only way that I can live in 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.840 New York. I can't believe I say I'm saying this. 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:42.800 Paris was cheap. I can't believe I'm saying that Europe 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.000 right now. That was her point. My quality of life 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.360 in London is so much higher than it would be 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.679 in New York. This is a huge deal for Mayor Adams. 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.520 It's very true you left the city. Well, look, I 0:12:55.600 --> 0:13:00.200 just moved from Berlin. Childcare is free to Scarsdale, where 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.520 it's going to cost me three grand amuntiple by kid 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:06.360 in a basement. You know, oh crime a river in Scarsdale. 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.440 I mean, into all honesty, okay, this is like, you know, 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:13.240 top tier. You just hold on a second. I mean 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:16.120 it's somebody who raised your kids in the city. And 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:18.600 I will be honest. You're right, You're not wrong to 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.240 bring this up, So I'm not I'm not undercutting this issue. 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:23.880 There is a larger point here, and this is what 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.280 I'm wrapping my head around right now, So I apologize 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:27.960 because you're all my guinea pigs and what I'm trying 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:31.120 to think about. But that actually one of the biggest 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.160 good things that could happen in the U. S. Economy 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.439 that could keep the boom economy that you're talking about, 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:39.920 Tom going, would be a profit margins strike. Basically if 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:45.480 companies paid employees more and then just took it out 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.640 of their profits rather than passing it along to consumers, 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:53.760 so you actually got a better living because you're not 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:56.200 paying that much more. But we see from the earnings 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.319 reports that they are passing a consumers exactly who are 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:01.719 being order in the stock market, well, I mean the 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.640 stock market. Basically the stock market is not the not 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.160 the economy, and vice versa. And at the stock markets 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:10.160 benefited the economy's lag behind. Are we seeing a reversal 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.680 of that? Not quite yet, but could we. Tobb's looking 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.320 at me like, go just jump off a bridge. I 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:17.760 don't know if that's going to be a good thing. 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:20.480 If she said that with me and Pharaoll early in 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:25.640 the morning, we'd be apoplectic. I'm just I just am 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:31.080 surprised by the optimism here. Let's bring in Rebecca Ray 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:34.440 right now. She joins us from the conference board, where 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:38.400 she is executive vice president of Human Capital. Rebecca, let 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.960 me first get your take on the job's number. Um, 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:43.480 what does it mean to you as you passed through 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:49.400 the data? Good morning and thanks for having me Um. 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:51.920 You know, I think it's very encouraging. We've got another 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:55.840 strong report. We're closing the gap on the number of 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.920 jobs that we lost since the pandemic hit US, and 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.640 I think all that's very encouraging. There's some very bright spots. 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.520 I think we've got a tightening labor market and people 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.640 who want to to work or having I think some 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:12.400 some good luck in finding positions. You see wages rising 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.240 in many industries, So I think there's a there's a 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.520 that's a great deal to be to be pleased with. 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.800 But I think at the point that you just made, UM, 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.040 some of that may be mitigated by rising inflation, and 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:27.000 so that's that's going to play that's going to play 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.480 into this as well. And we're back on the topic 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:31.920 of the labor market. The conference Sport has a new 0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:35.520 survey out on work life Balanced Struggles, and I want 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:39.240 to hear about this. What your findings found because it's 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.080 been an interesting labor market and that it took a 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:46.480 long time to fill that whole and employment because you know, 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.320 we're it feels like workers have had more, say, more power. 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:55.640 But what did your survey find? Yes, so we just 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:59.400 are about to release it today and I'm pleased to 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:01.800 to share a bit about what we found. You know, 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:04.920 I think in these last couple of years, certainly everyone 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:08.360 has had their own particular reaction to the events of 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.400 the world and what they did in terms of their 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.040 work arrangements. But there are many who are very concerned 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:18.400 that during that time, the work and the life, the 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.400 boundaries get very blurred, and some of that hasn't necessarily 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.200 shaken back out. And in fact, some of the concerns 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:27.840 that we UH that we saw among both those who 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:31.600 are fully remote and those who are UH and and 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.160 hybrid you know, sometimes in the workplace and sometimes not 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.360 as well as those who are full time, they're all 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:41.120 a little concerned about blurred boundaries. I think the balance, 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.560 the pendulum will swing eventually, but I think a lot 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.560 of people are concerned that the advent of technology, regardless 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:49.840 of the way in which you work, is going to 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:52.960 mean that people are going to expect the continuation of 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:56.200 being always on, always available, and particularly for those who 0:16:56.200 --> 0:17:00.480 are fully remote workers, that's a real concern. Yeah, because 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.240 remote workers we hear often that they put in more time, 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:08.160 um than those who come to the office. How does 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:11.040 this return to work thing than pan out? Rebecca, What 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:13.240 do you think? Are we just looking at a hybrid 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:15.240 model for the future. Do we ever go back to 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:17.760 the old days of you just come in from you know, 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:21.199 eight to six every day, five days a week. How 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.960 does it? How does it turn out? You know, I 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.080 think most most of us begin to feel that they're 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.560 going to be in a hybrid situation of some type 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:33.000 or another for a very long time. I think the 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:36.800 game has permanently shifted. And I know that in this 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:41.760 latest survey, those who are millennials in particular, very concerned 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.960 about the increased cost of commuting. Many workers have found 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:50.240 that they made great strides in work life integration and 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.880 they're reluctant to give that back now. You know, companies 0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:55.639 will argue that they need to come back to the 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.639 workplace because they're concerned about you know, the absence of 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.040 network working and building relationships that it's going to have 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:05.399 an impact on collaboration that their culture will suffer. I 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.960 think those are all valid reasons. I think employees workers 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:11.520 tend to agree that those are some really valid reasons 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.000 for going. But I think we need to begin to 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:17.240 think about the workplace, the physical workplace as sort of 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:18.920 the way we used to think about an off site. 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:21.160 You know, you planned for an off site, you knew 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:22.800 when it was happening. There was a reason to go. 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.440 You had expectations, but what was going to be accomplished. 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:29.000 Give workers a reason to return to the workplace. It 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.080 isn't simply about returning to the way things were checking 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:37.080 a box. Make it about celebrating your accomplishments, or understanding 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:39.040 a new product launch and how you're gonna be successful 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.080 in the marketplace. Make it about developmental opportunities. To be 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.720 intentional about it. But give give a really good reason 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:48.480 for coming back, not simply let's just get back to normal, 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.159 because I think those days are gone. Rebecca, thanks so 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:53.480 much for joining us. Great to get your insight. As always, 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:57.280 Rebecca Ray, their executive vice president at the conference board, 0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:05.280 Let's continue to talk about the jobs numbers. Then with 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.080 Tom Gimbal, founder and CEO of the sound network when 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:13.359 of leading staffing firms, UH the biggest staffing firms in 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:15.920 the country. Tom, thanks so much for joining us. I 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:19.000 gotta ask first about UM, the people you're placing. Are 0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:22.480 they getting paid a lot more? Well, they're getting paid more. 0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.080 There's no doubt about it that this market is what 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.840 people are seeing is talent is hard to come by. 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:30.280 There is a labor shortage. We have yet to place 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:32.639 anybody for two and twelve million dollars. That would be 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:36.639 quite a fee, um. But but overall we're seeing it. 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:39.679 You know, it's it's not usually you say, oh, in 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:44.200 the tech based developers, elite sales people, things like that, 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:50.680 But in this market, people are getting five sometimes increases 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:55.680 when they make moves. And are they also demanding Tom 0:19:55.680 --> 0:20:00.199 to work from home or to be able to UM 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:02.520 or to not be required to go to the office 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.760 five days a week. Well, that's the interesting thing is 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:09.600 now more and more companies are moving away from fully 0:20:09.600 --> 0:20:12.680 remote and looking for people who are within a commuting 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:16.560 distance for some sort of hybrid. The more unique the 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:20.399 skill set or UH in high demand and individual is, 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:24.600 the more preference they have. But we're not seeing that 0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:26.560 to be a big deal. What you are seeing is 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:29.199 people won't even listen to a job. If something there 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.080 are people who want remote so badly they won't even listen. 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:34.840 It's not something that comes up in the negotiation. If 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.320 you're going into interview for a job, you're under the 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:40.760 assumption that usually it's gonna be a hybrid at the 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:44.840 very least, unless they're telling you upfront. So what does 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:47.040 this report? Then? If you step back, Tom and look 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:49.960 at this report from the thirty five thousand of you, Um, 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.360 how does it look to you? It looks fantastic. If 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:56.240 I would have said to somebody a year ago, uh, 0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:59.200 that twelve months later we'd have our twelfth consecutive month 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:01.960 of over four a thousand jobs, Unemployment would be at 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:06.840 three point six percent UM and uh, the wages would 0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:09.840 be increased and the participation rate would be increased. Everyone 0:21:09.840 --> 0:21:12.080 would say, sign me up for that program. And if 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:15.679 the economists had predicted four thousand jobs instead of five thousand, 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:18.760 we'd be doing backflips, right, you know. The the the 0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:21.880 economists get to get the judge statistically what they think 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:24.639 will happen, and us on on main Street, we're actually 0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:27.600 doing the heavy lifting. And this job market is still 0:21:27.640 --> 0:21:29.720 as good as I've ever seen, and we're seeing the 0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:33.000 CEOs I'm talking to every single day. They're they're not 0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:35.959 worried about the Ukraine, they're not worried about Russia. As 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:37.760 far as what's going on, they only have one fear, 0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:40.720 and that's inflation. And and that's where I think we 0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:46.080 should be really focusing our concerned domestically. Yeah, I mean, um, 0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:50.879 it's okay for now. I guess as as companies pass 0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:55.120 on inflation to consumers, they're able to increase wages. But 0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:59.000 how long can that last. You're gonna be in a 0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:01.520 in a real tough situation. And I don't want to 0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:03.600 be the doomsday guy. I think we're gonna be in 0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:05.800