Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast.
Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan, I'm a senior editor at Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: and I'm vil Donna hick Cross ASID report at Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: And this week on the show, Well, the good news
Speaker 1: is the SMP five hundred is trading near record highs again.
Speaker 1: But the bad news, well, there's some clouds gathering on
Speaker 1: the horizon. US economic growth came in lower than expected
Speaker 1: at two percent for the third quarter, and the inflation
Speaker 1: fueling supply chain bottlenecks don't seem to be easing any
Speaker 1: time soon. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears poised to finally
Speaker 1: announce plants to taper its asset purchases next week. So
Speaker 1: it's this rally on borrow time. We'll get into it
Speaker 1: with a veteran fund manager. But well, donta first, I
Speaker 1: need to issue I don't know if you would call
Speaker 1: it a correction or retraction to last week's podcast. Remember
Speaker 1: we were talking about how our friend Sarah has cooled
Speaker 1: seats in her car down in Florida. Yeah, of course,
Speaker 1: I remember. It's like the coolest thing I've never heard of.
Speaker 1: Such a thing I thought, is the coolest thing in
Speaker 1: the world. Anyway. I'm at my kids field hockey game
Speaker 1: the other night and a friend who's an avid listener
Speaker 1: of the show, shout out to John Midler comes up
Speaker 1: and he says, I can't believe you've never heard of
Speaker 1: cold seats. I've got to pick up truck that's eleven
Speaker 1: years old. It's got cold seats in them. And I'm like,
Speaker 1: what right, And then it gets worse, and then my
Speaker 1: wife goes, you, dummy, Our cheap Cherokee has cooled seats
Speaker 1: in them. I had no idea. What apologies to listeners,
Speaker 1: just the first ever retraction. Can I say that that
Speaker 1: makes you supremely fancy? As fancy as Sarah. That's pretty fancy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not quite as fancy as Sarah. You took a
Speaker 1: big step towards it. Well. I know that our guest
Speaker 1: comes from a really cold area of the country, so
Speaker 1: I don't know if he has cool cooling seats. We'll
Speaker 1: find out. But I want to bring in Doug Ramsey.
Speaker 1: He's the chief investment officer and co manager of the
Speaker 1: looth Oled Core Fund. Doug, Welcome to the show. Thanks
Speaker 1: so much, it's great to be on you know as
Speaker 1: a longtime fund manager, and is especially in our space,
Speaker 1: which is tactical asset management. It's been a hot seat
Speaker 1: here for a while, and I don't know when it
Speaker 1: was ever cool. That's a that's a really good transition,
Speaker 1: you know. We we tend to do well during more
Speaker 1: difficult markets. Uh, so it was a cool seat for
Speaker 1: about twenty five days in March of but then back
Speaker 1: off to the races and uh, yeah, the seat feels
Speaker 1: pretty hot from the perspective of I guess those who
Speaker 1: who own US equities. But we're faring pretty well within
Speaker 1: our tactical peer group, which is I mean that pier
Speaker 1: group has been under pressure, as you might imagine, for
Speaker 1: a long period here with you know what, what you
Speaker 1: could almost argue is now a twelve and a half
Speaker 1: year bull market rather than a one and a half
Speaker 1: year bull market, depending on how you score things at home,
Speaker 1: you know, talk as you put out, talk about a
Speaker 1: hot stock market again. Uh, we're talking before the show,
Speaker 1: and you use the word that I think always raises eyebrows, Uh,
Speaker 1: melt up. You think we're we're kind of been a
Speaker 1: melt up right now. Um, And obviously that makes you
Speaker 1: wonder if a meltdown is in the cards too. But
Speaker 1: but explain how why you're thinking that and sort of
Speaker 1: what what are the what's the evidence of a melt
Speaker 1: top in most cases, and why do you think we're
Speaker 1: having one now? Well, it's just got that feel to it.
Speaker 1: It's sort of the the time of the year here
Speaker 1: where seasonality turns positive. Uh. And you know, despite this, uh,
Speaker 1: this resurrection of the Nasdaq stocks, I mean, this thing
Speaker 1: is is still very broad. I mean, we wrote, you know,
Speaker 1: throughout the summer and early fall about just some you know,
Speaker 1: anomalies that we were seeing in terms of the market
Speaker 1: breadth data. You know, we're still seeing some of those.
Speaker 1: But it's really hard to argue that the market has
Speaker 1: narrowed when you've got New York Stock Exchange breadth at
Speaker 1: a new all time high as recently as Tuesday October,
Speaker 1: when you had the value line arithmetic composite, which is
Speaker 1: an equal weighted index of about stocks that made an
Speaker 1: all time high on the same day after having been
Speaker 1: rangebound for a lot of months. So it is very broad.
Speaker 1: And then it's just its ability to just shrug off
Speaker 1: this looming tapering, which we would construe as tightening. As
Speaker 1: we did in h and then uh, you know, the
Speaker 1: likelihood that we're going to see elevated inflation numbers well
Speaker 1: into two. I mean we've moved from the transitory narrative.
Speaker 1: You know, the definition of transitory has been warped. Uh.
Speaker 1: And and now we're almost beyond that to where it's
Speaker 1: accepted that we're going to have elevated inflation for a while.
Speaker 1: And now, um, and remember a lot of times the
Speaker 1: market narrative morphs to fit the price action. Well, now,
Speaker 1: because the market has been so strong coming off of
Speaker 1: early October lows, the new narrative is well yet inflation
Speaker 1: is going to be elevated, but it's gonna lift earnings
Speaker 1: and will not impact PE multiples. So it's been interesting
Speaker 1: to watch that narrative on inflation evolved over the last
Speaker 1: six or seven months. So do if we can take
Speaker 1: a really big step back. I noticed in a recent
Speaker 1: note of yours you had said, Um, there's plenty of
Speaker 1: fundamental misgivings about this market, but the shorter term work
Speaker 1: still cautions against hedging two aggressively. And so I'm wondering
Speaker 1: what you mean by that, and if that's a really
Speaker 1: good way to characterize what's going on right now, meaning
Speaker 1: people are worried, but that they're staying invested. Well. Part
Speaker 1: of our concern in the shorter term, I mean in
Speaker 1: terms of, you know, trying to to hedge against this market.
Speaker 1: As you know, as I mentioned earlier, this this move
Speaker 1: is very broad. Again, You've got so many bellweathers breaking
Speaker 1: out two new highs. The Dow Transports, which were lagging
Speaker 1: for much of the year, are on the verge of
Speaker 1: breaking out to a new all time high. I mentioned
Speaker 1: this measure of stocks equal weighted at a new high,
Speaker 1: New York Stock Exchange breath at a new high. It's
Speaker 1: just it would be very rare for the market to
Speaker 1: put in a major top. I mean, regardless of how
Speaker 1: expensive it might be, and regardless of how the FED
Speaker 1: may be moving into the less accombinative mode. Just history
Speaker 1: shows that generally there is some sort of narrowing that
Speaker 1: happens before you reach a definitive top in the market.
Speaker 1: And that's why while we're we're cautious in terms certainly
Speaker 1: in terms of evaluations and what the FED is likely
Speaker 1: to do now here over the next several months, the
Speaker 1: market probably deserves the benefit of the doubt because of
Speaker 1: its very strong internal momentum. You know, Doug, I want
Speaker 1: to get unpack a little bit. Uh, that notion of
Speaker 1: inflation and valuations. You know, as you put out historically,
Speaker 1: you always think of higher inflation really depressing stock stock
Speaker 1: market multiples. UM. I always think back of that rule
Speaker 1: of twenty I think it was Peter Lynch who who
Speaker 1: came up with that, where you know, the market wide
Speaker 1: p plus the rate of inflation should equal about twenty
Speaker 1: two to be a fairly valued market. Well, well here
Speaker 1: we've got peas way about twenty on a forward and
Speaker 1: trailing basis, inflation like we've never seen before. Um. Is
Speaker 1: it inevitable to to sort of see that valuation uh
Speaker 1: come back down? Or is this is there a case
Speaker 1: to be made at this time? Is different? You know,
Speaker 1: the regular listeners of the show will sort of think
Speaker 1: I'm a broken record on this. But I keep thinking
Speaker 1: of of all the cash that's just sitting around. How
Speaker 1: the savings, the consumer savings rate blew out during the pandemic. Uh,
Speaker 1: corporations cash levels are really high. UH, money market funds
Speaker 1: are are really high. Back balance sheets are really high.
Speaker 1: Is there just enough kind of dry powder on the
Speaker 1: side sidelines to to sort of break that historical relationship
Speaker 1: between inflation in multi suppolser is that something you wouldn't
Speaker 1: mess with? Uh So I think about it more in
Speaker 1: just terms of this this excess liquidity, I mean, keeping
Speaker 1: them the money supply growth rate, and let's set QE
Speaker 1: aside right for the moment. But you know, we are
Speaker 1: still growing mto money supply in this country at I mean,
Speaker 1: now that's down from a peak. I think we peaked
Speaker 1: post collapse at earlier this year. It's fallen in half,
Speaker 1: but it's stayed around that level for the last three
Speaker 1: or four months. I have no idea why the money
Speaker 1: supply still needs to be growing that rapidly, with with
Speaker 1: fiscal outlays growing much more slowly than they were during
Speaker 1: the height of the emergency assistance. But but there we are.
Speaker 1: And so part of me looks at this looming tapering
Speaker 1: and says, well, that's that's it. An incremental that's a
Speaker 1: that's an important change at the margin, you know, taking
Speaker 1: Huey purchases from a hundred and twenty billion dollars a
Speaker 1: month down to zero next summer, which is what's sort
Speaker 1: of being a trial balloons out there among the various
Speaker 1: FED talking heads. I mean, I'll believe that when I
Speaker 1: see it, quite frankly. But we're still growing the money supply.
Speaker 1: There's still excess liquidity available to flow into financial assets.
Speaker 1: So that obviously we have the FED meeting coming up
Speaker 1: really soon and a lot of people are expecting them
Speaker 1: to announce that they will start taping. So how do
Speaker 1: you invest around that? And I know a lot of
Speaker 1: investors are pulling forward their expectations for when the FED
Speaker 1: might start hiking interest rates to maybe the earlier parts
Speaker 1: of next year, even I was reading in some Bloomark stories.
Speaker 1: So how do you invest around that? What do you
Speaker 1: tell clients? Well, the first step I think is to
Speaker 1: acknowledge that, uh, timing this thing is extraordinarily difficult. I mean,
Speaker 1: we look at a raft of technical and sentiment and
Speaker 1: monetary data. Uh, but the fact is that in a
Speaker 1: market with this kind of momentum, uh, not a lot
Speaker 1: of that work is all that timely. And of course
Speaker 1: valuations get a bad rap as a poor timing tool,
Speaker 1: and I get that, but they are a very good
Speaker 1: risk management tool. So to start with, we have a
Speaker 1: lower equity allocation in our tactical funds then we would
Speaker 1: if valuations were average or even even on the high
Speaker 1: end of their fair values. Though, I mean, even with
Speaker 1: the dramatically improved fundamental picture, and even with estimates for
Speaker 1: next year which are still trending higher, we are still
Speaker 1: on a lot of measures. UH for the S and
Speaker 1: P five hundred pretty close to numbers that were last
Speaker 1: seen in late early two thousand, near the tech bubble peak.
Speaker 1: What's different and what makes it so much more difficult
Speaker 1: I think for go anywhere managers, so to speak, is
Speaker 1: that the rest of the market is so much more
Speaker 1: expensive than it ever got during the tech bubble. I mean,
Speaker 1: the one thing about the tech bubble was that, uh,
Speaker 1: during the last couple innings of that move into the
Speaker 1: early two thousand, a lot of stuff was left in
Speaker 1: the dust. So you could find a lot of good
Speaker 1: industrial and financial and what they were, classically value sectors
Speaker 1: that were really left in the dust, mid caps, small
Speaker 1: caps that just had very middle of the range pees.
Speaker 1: As long as you were willing to stay away from
Speaker 1: where the action was in those last couple of needs,
Speaker 1: you came through that downturn just fine. Whereas uh, I mean,
Speaker 1: just because of this monetary tsunami, we have everything now
Speaker 1: mid caps, small caps, and really almost across the span
Speaker 1: of sectors, we have valuations well above anything that we
Speaker 1: saw in the late nineties, and at the two thousand
Speaker 1: top so um, there's not not a lot of alternative
Speaker 1: if you'd want to be more defensive. So that's why
Speaker 1: our equity reality asian is more moderate than it otherwise
Speaker 1: would be with this kind of strong uh technical market action.
Speaker 1: So I wanted to ask you, with us coming into
Speaker 1: the year end, how true it is that active managers
Speaker 1: are potentially going to be facing some pressures to chase
Speaker 1: performance given how well the market's done so far this year,
Speaker 1: and what does that mean overall for the market. It's interesting,
Speaker 1: Bill Donna, because I can certainly see there are some
Speaker 1: strange developments uh going on that would suggest some degree
Speaker 1: of narrowing. But when when you see an index as
Speaker 1: broad as the value line breaking out to a new high,
Speaker 1: you know that's that's really a signal that we're not
Speaker 1: quite there yet in terms of the market narrowing. So uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, well, what's been interesting here
Speaker 1: this year is it's been sort of a rotational market
Speaker 1: in terms of groups at you know, had a tremendous
Speaker 1: surge beginning around election time, stalling out a year ago, uh,
Speaker 1: stalling out in the spring, and then working sideways for
Speaker 1: several months. So that would be the small caps. The
Speaker 1: Russell two thousand is still below the high that it
Speaker 1: made back in in mid March, which was right around
Speaker 1: when yields unentertain your treasury peaked out. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's probably um, I mean, that's probably not a coincidence.
Speaker 1: H And as I mentioned, you know, the transports have
Speaker 1: been lagging for several months, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: just a tremendous surge in in October, so things have
Speaker 1: broadened out. But yeah, I think and again maybe I'm
Speaker 1: biased a little bit by the space in which we compete. UM.
Speaker 1: I certainly think that, you know, the tactical fund space
Speaker 1: that tends to take a more cautious view on things,
Speaker 1: especial stually in expensive markets. I just feel like, you know,
Speaker 1: the bigger fear, UM is the fear of missing out
Speaker 1: radin and the fear of losing significant money. Despite evaluations
Speaker 1: being almost as elevated as they were at the tech
Speaker 1: bubble peak, there's still steems to be more fear over
Speaker 1: missing out than there is over losing serious money. That's
Speaker 1: that's just sort of my sense, and I'm glad you
Speaker 1: brought up the comparisons to the tech bubble, Doug. I
Speaker 1: think the last time we spoke a few years ago,
Speaker 1: pre pandemic obviously, UH we talked about used to do
Speaker 1: a thing basically saying okay, comparing the rally since the
Speaker 1: financial crisis to the dot com rallying saying okay, where
Speaker 1: are we in the dot com bubble calendar? Our our boss,
Speaker 1: Chris neg loved that. That's all you get, you put
Speaker 1: together to sort of track that. So where are we
Speaker 1: now to the the pandemic kind of blow up? That
Speaker 1: that comparison, uh, you know that tool that that when
Speaker 1: you look at the market or is it still valid?
Speaker 1: You know, I remember early on in the conversation, you say,
Speaker 1: you consider this a twelve year bull market, you know,
Speaker 1: the last year's bear market being sort of not counting. Um,
Speaker 1: can you can you still kind of make the the
Speaker 1: parallel to the dot com market given everything that's happened.
Speaker 1: We've introduced some some new valuation techniques since uh I
Speaker 1: first did that work several years ago, basically looking at, okay,
Speaker 1: if this were the late nineties. Where are we based
Speaker 1: on you know, forward pe and normalize pe and price
Speaker 1: to sales and things of that nature. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: one that we've favored in the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: and it's been helpful with this unusually rapid earnings rebound
Speaker 1: is the concept of looking at price to any trailing
Speaker 1: peak and earnings. And of course we're back at a
Speaker 1: new peak now through second quarter numbers, which is pretty remarkable. Uh.
Speaker 1: But the difference between the current rebound and let's say
Speaker 1: the two thousand peak is that margins are so much higher.
Speaker 1: The SMP five operating margin in the second quarter was
Speaker 1: at twelve all time record, took out the previous record
Speaker 1: of eleven point three, which I believe was in the
Speaker 1: third quarter. If the current forward estimates for the third
Speaker 1: quarter are correct, we're gonna go to twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: I mean, the margins that we were printing back in
Speaker 1: late and early two thousand were between seven and seven
Speaker 1: and a half percent. We are just an entirely different
Speaker 1: zip code when it comes to profitability. Now. The issue
Speaker 1: is that was bound to happen when you dumped five
Speaker 1: trillion dollars of incremental federal spending above and beyond what
Speaker 1: likely would have been spent if there had been no
Speaker 1: pandemic interruption. And of course, UH you monetized about that.
Speaker 1: You monetize four point three out of that five trillion incremental,
Speaker 1: so the operating leverage was just enormous. The issue now
Speaker 1: is you spent that five trillion over a period of
Speaker 1: eighteen months, and now as you're seeing the new uh
Speaker 1: Biden Economic Build, Build Better Plan being whittled down, you're
Speaker 1: talking about eighty two trillion over ten years, so two
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars a year after you dumped five trillion
Speaker 1: on the thing in eighteen months. So that's why I
Speaker 1: am just you know, when I look at estimates for two,
Speaker 1: it's just very hard for me to join in the
Speaker 1: fray and to throw a number out there, because I
Speaker 1: just I don't have a good idea on what impact
Speaker 1: this fiscal cliff and it will be a cliff on
Speaker 1: a rate of change basis is going to have on
Speaker 1: SMP five journeys. UM just very poor visibility there stand
Speaker 1: clear of the craziest things we saw in markets this week.
Speaker 1: I think that lack of visibility is the theme of
Speaker 1: at least this part of the year, especially with all
Speaker 1: the supply chain issues and everything else. Um and no
Speaker 1: one really knowing how long transitory is is gonna last.
Speaker 1: But the one thing we do have some visibility into
Speaker 1: is the craziest things we've seen in markets this week. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start with you. What's the craziest thing you
Speaker 1: saw this week? Oh my gosh, you're catching me off guard.
Speaker 1: You had no idea and I had a few more minutes,
Speaker 1: yeah to prepare. Um. Well, as you know, Katie Rifle
Speaker 1: and I have been covering what's been going on with
Speaker 1: the crypto market so extensively, and the launches of the
Speaker 1: future spiitcoin, e TF and and all of that, and
Speaker 1: there's so much happening in the crypto market that's really interesting.
Speaker 1: I think this week she but you knew, I don't
Speaker 1: know if you were keeping track of what was going
Speaker 1: on there, that that was one of the craziest things. However,
Speaker 1: it's been really extensively talked about already. So my craziest
Speaker 1: thing is this Bloomberg story about how Chinese authorities are
Speaker 1: asking the founder of Ever Ever Grand Ever Grande. I'm
Speaker 1: still not sure how to pronounce it. The founder to
Speaker 1: use his personal well to help alleviate some of these uh,
Speaker 1: the some of the crisis that the company is seeing,
Speaker 1: which is just crazy. They're asking him to use his
Speaker 1: own money. To me, it's it's a it's a really
Speaker 1: crazy story. Probably only happened in China. Yeah, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure how that would go over overwhelluh in the US.
Speaker 1: If I don't know, you never know. I don't know, Doug.
Speaker 1: How about you? You You seen anything crazy this week? Uh?
Speaker 1: I did? Bill Donna alluded to it, and uh, you
Speaker 1: know when something I can't even pronounce nor had never
Speaker 1: heard of, uh can take an account a coin base? Uh?
Speaker 1: Billful from an eight thousand dollar total investment up to
Speaker 1: five point six billion? I think is the latest I've read. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh and Bill Donna, you had the name, can you? Uh?
Speaker 1: Oh very good? I saw that story. But I mean
Speaker 1: what gets me is I hadn't heard of that until
Speaker 1: last night. Uh. Not big on at least the you know,
Speaker 1: secondary and tertiary cryptos. I mean this is a spoof
Speaker 1: of a spoof, right, it's a spoof on doage coin.
Speaker 1: But just I mean, think about the wealth amassed relative
Speaker 1: to and I was trying to brush up on the
Speaker 1: two thousand eight short of the Housing Market by John Paulson.
Speaker 1: I think that personally netted him four billion. It was
Speaker 1: the greatest trade of all time. Um, you know it was.
Speaker 1: The whole theme was made into a movie, The Big Short.
Speaker 1: But uh, think of all that had to gone go
Speaker 1: right and the intricate structuring of that trade that paid off.
Speaker 1: And now you've got someone that just puts a little
Speaker 1: bit of money out of his or her checking account
Speaker 1: into a spoof and and out does the greatest trade
Speaker 1: of all time in a matter of was it since
Speaker 1: last summer? I can't even remember? But uh, And the
Speaker 1: fact so the weirdest thing is not that itself, but
Speaker 1: the fact that it didn't even qualify as the weirdest
Speaker 1: thing that Bill Donna saw all week. That's weird. That's
Speaker 1: that's her too, immersed. Bill Donna's got her eye on
Speaker 1: a lot of weird things. I saw that story and
Speaker 1: it was fascinating to Mike, do you know what this means? Me?
Speaker 1: And you have to start a derivative of a derivative
Speaker 1: of a derivative. We have to do the third iteration.
Speaker 1: Oh right, like a golden doodle coin. Yeah, a golden
Speaker 1: doodle point would kill it. Is a golden doodle here,
Speaker 1: a golden doodle coin would just kill it all all
Speaker 1: the Golden doodle owners out there, Well, this is a
Speaker 1: rare stars are all lined because because Siba knew if
Speaker 1: I am pronouncing a correct is also by my craziest
Speaker 1: thing of the week. But I'm gonna add the prices
Speaker 1: right element to it. Okay, can either of you tell
Speaker 1: me what the year today percentage gain of this coin
Speaker 1: is seven million or something? Doug, what's your what's your guess?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say three, three millions something like that per
Speaker 1: cent So I had to. I did this math like
Speaker 1: three times because it's it's not the easiest math to do.
Speaker 1: The start of the year might do this coin still
Speaker 1: is way in the fractions of a penny per coin.
Speaker 1: Start of the year it was dollar sign zero decimal
Speaker 1: ten zeros. See the last time I checked its dollar
Speaker 1: sign zero decimal four zero sixty. That gets you a
Speaker 1: ninety one million percent year to date gain and achieve it.
Speaker 1: You know, does it make you think like, what are
Speaker 1: we doing with our lives? It does? And then just
Speaker 1: you know, I'm sort of a market historian, just all
Speaker 1: the good stories you would hear about, like anecdotal sentiment
Speaker 1: tip offs. I mean one being Joe Kennedy supposedly sold
Speaker 1: his stocks in ninete because the shoe sharing boy gave
Speaker 1: him a stock tips. I mean, that is so weak
Speaker 1: by today's standards. I mean, we were, we were far
Speaker 1: beyond that a year ago, and here we are still
Speaker 1: powering higher. And that's uh, you know, that's what I
Speaker 1: talked about. Even you know, some of these sentiment tools,
Speaker 1: I mean a lot of our sentiment work has been
Speaker 1: through the roof now for months on end. But you know,
Speaker 1: the Hueshine Boy tips haven't been helpful in terms of
Speaker 1: negotiating an exit to this market. So sometimes I joke,
Speaker 1: you know, evaluation has deservedly a bad rap for how
Speaker 1: inept it is at helping you time the market. But
Speaker 1: I think sentiment gives gets an undeservedly good rap because
Speaker 1: it's also not that helpful, uh, when you're in a
Speaker 1: manic environment like this. I mean, quite frankly, most of
Speaker 1: our sentiment work, our sentiment composite registered its froth Eyist
Speaker 1: readings back in mid February, and here we are probably
Speaker 1: sixteen seventeen percent higher than we were in mid February,
Speaker 1: so even the sentiment stuff, it's not all that helpful. Oh,
Speaker 1: I think that's all the time we have for this week.
Speaker 1: Really appreciate you joining the show, and uh hope, I
Speaker 1: hope we can do it again some day, Well to
Speaker 1: do it again What Goes Up. We'll be back next
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