Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never leave the pocket
Speaker 1: because we had no mobility. We're like kurkoa Chains. I'm
Speaker 1: here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio for our week
Speaker 1: nine picks. It's Cynthia Freeland. Time of the week. Let's go.
Speaker 2: Why would we ever leave the pocket?
Speaker 1: No, we're having so much success inside the pocket. That's
Speaker 1: a little tease to maybe one of my picks a
Speaker 1: little later. But this is the part of the show
Speaker 1: where we talk about our picks from last week. We
Speaker 1: both went one and two, so we're just gonna move
Speaker 1: past that for the season. If you check us out
Speaker 1: on YouTube, you can see the fancy graphics. Cynthia is
Speaker 1: one game up on me. She's five hundred one back.
Speaker 1: You know what things. I actually looked at our record
Speaker 1: against the spread of the off season on game debut,
Speaker 1: and it's much better. We're both well over five hundred
Speaker 1: picking every single game when we're so that just means
Speaker 1: that our time is coming and that we're gonna have
Speaker 1: some great picks. Because the picks for this show I
Speaker 1: feel good about. This week. You're going to start us
Speaker 1: off three picks against the spread, go back and forth.
Speaker 3: Listen, you are one heck of a segue artist with
Speaker 3: that intro, because I'm going to go with Atlanta. Oh
Speaker 3: thank Atlanta wins by at least two and a half,
Speaker 3: so three points. At least I have five points. I'm
Speaker 3: a conservative modeler, so ultimately that's a pretty big win,
Speaker 3: in part because this Dallas defense cannot stop any yak yaka.
Speaker 1: Or ya co.
Speaker 3: Remember the yards of the catcher yards after contact you go.
Speaker 3: Both are a huge problem. So John Robinson, welcome to
Speaker 3: my lineup. I'm obviously he was there to begin with,
Speaker 3: but massive day for him.
Speaker 1: For me, I love that let's just join forces. We
Speaker 1: haven't done that a lot on this show. But Atlanta
Speaker 1: minus two and a half minus three, whatever you find
Speaker 1: for it, I'm feeling it. This is one of those
Speaker 1: lines that I looked at and I don't have a model,
Speaker 1: but it's almost like, oh, you're just begging us to
Speaker 1: take the Falcons here. I get a little worried about that.
Speaker 1: But I've been fading Atlanta all year, including last week.
Speaker 1: I did a bad job at that, picking the Buccaneers
Speaker 1: on our show game debut. I don't think I did
Speaker 1: it here. No, you didn't do it here. I don't
Speaker 1: know whatever, But here's the thing. They have a good
Speaker 1: running game. YEP. At the beginning of the season, it
Speaker 1: was like, can you marry up the shotgun the pistol
Speaker 1: concepts of Kirk Cousins with the running game? When I
Speaker 1: look at it, it doesn't look married up, and yet
Speaker 1: it's very effective lately. So going up against Dallas, whether
Speaker 1: they have Michael Parsons back or not. Fourth in overall
Speaker 1: offensive efficiency and then this is a bad defense for
Speaker 1: the Falcons. That's why I haven't been in on them all,
Speaker 1: but I think this is a week that they can survive.
Speaker 1: So I looked at the DVOA, So that's total efficiency.
Speaker 1: I know there's different metrics, and I'm like, am I
Speaker 1: crazy here? In total efficiency? Falcons are about thirteenth on
Speaker 1: the season. The Cowboys are twenty six. Like, this is
Speaker 1: not a good team. There's just been like a team
Speaker 1: that Vegas hasn't given up on. And then finally they
Speaker 1: broke out those Outcast sweats shirts this week. I don't
Speaker 1: know if you saw that the Falcons Outcast collab. You're
Speaker 1: not gonna lose. You're gonna have a lot of Outcast
Speaker 1: sweatshirts this weekend.
Speaker 3: You cannot lose wearing that sweatshirt like it is like
Speaker 3: like undefeated sweatshirt. And we haven't even seen them play
Speaker 3: a game in it yet, but we know they're already
Speaker 3: undefeated after having that collab.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you look like you wanted to tell me
Speaker 1: more about like the bad defense.
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, no, I just want to talk about this,
Speaker 2: Like those are that.
Speaker 3: That's some good swag right there, Like whoever's doing that
Speaker 3: partnership A plus good?
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe they'll maybe they'll be at the stadium. And
Speaker 1: so I'm feeling Atlanta minus three. We've got three four
Speaker 1: units in this game, two pretty bad defenses, one pretty
Speaker 1: bad offense, and one Falcons offense. I'm believing in the
Speaker 1: Falcons offense, like at least all right, so we're we're
Speaker 1: on that together. So we got through that quickly. What
Speaker 1: is your second pick?
Speaker 3: Well, all right, for my second pick, I'm gonna go
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills and six points, so they have to
Speaker 3: cover at least a six point spread, they win by
Speaker 3: at least a touchdown. The number six I enjoy because
Speaker 3: seven and a half is a crappy number. Six is
Speaker 3: a much more palatable number. This means the difference between
Speaker 3: one possession or two possessions. So I'm looking at the
Speaker 3: opportunity to beat Miami at home. They get Von Miller back,
Speaker 3: they already have Greg Russo who's been bringing the heat. Obviously,
Speaker 3: we know that they're gonna try to run the football.
Speaker 3: Devin chan In three games have had three great games
Speaker 3: against the Bills. However, getting that quick passing game going
Speaker 3: and the rhythm back, I don't know if Buffalo is
Speaker 3: the place that two was going to be able to
Speaker 3: make that happen. And also last week we saw some
Speaker 3: sort of like confusing data from their defense, which had
Speaker 3: been playing pretty well, them being the Dolphins defense clearly
Speaker 3: not the Bills defense, because they.
Speaker 2: Did really well in Seattle.
Speaker 3: But ultimately I don't know what to trust about this defense,
Speaker 3: and I trust a lot more about what I've seen
Speaker 3: from Josh Allen on the offense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think their toughness will be tested. We'll see
Speaker 1: if Zach Seeler plays in this game. Who's a really
Speaker 1: important part of that doin.
Speaker 3: Yeah, defense, but Jalen Ramsey has not been Jalen Ramsey.
Speaker 1: He hasn't given up something coverage and Buffalo can beat
Speaker 1: you two different ways they can. They can just rind
Speaker 1: you to dust like they did to the Seahawks. They
Speaker 1: can obviously make big plays in the passing game. We
Speaker 1: saw Kyler Murray outside the pocket doing that last week
Speaker 1: inside the pocket as well. Josh Allen even better at that.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm now writing that down in my
Speaker 1: little extra picks because Box is the Box is back.
Speaker 2: It's like a really honored yeah.
Speaker 1: Because I do feel that in my soul this matchup
Speaker 1: has been so bad in the Mike McDaniel Sean McDermott era.
Speaker 1: I don't really like going back to past years too much,
Speaker 1: but when it's a specific coaching matchup and you've lost
Speaker 1: five straight and week two with Tua out there, they
Speaker 1: were up thirty one to ten before two have got
Speaker 1: that injury. So I'm with you there. That's not gonna
Speaker 1: be one of my top three picks though. And you
Speaker 1: were right. I did not take the bucks on this
Speaker 1: show last week. Okay, you have a good memory.
Speaker 3: I was pretty sure you didn't right two of those
Speaker 3: shows together, so they kind of mixed together.
Speaker 1: My top pick. Let's hear it, Washington minus four on
Speaker 1: the road, Now, I get it. I could see why
Speaker 1: models might agree or disagree. I don't even know it
Speaker 1: does years agree with me? Okay strongly that was one
Speaker 1: of Okay, that was in feel free to take it.
Speaker 1: As you're three, there's no rules. We could just we
Speaker 1: could have a different one for my third fun. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so I get it. Why it's only four. It's a
Speaker 1: road team, it's a young team that you're still learning about.
Speaker 1: It's a division matchup. When they first played Believe that
Speaker 1: was week two, very close. The Giants actually felt like
Speaker 1: they should have maybe won that game. But sometimes I
Speaker 1: don't want to get too complicated. It's two teams head
Speaker 1: in opposite direction. Washington has passed every test throughout this
Speaker 1: the course of this season. I know they could have
Speaker 1: lost last week, doesn't matter to me. They outplayed the Bears.
Speaker 1: They look like a quality team. Two quality teams. It
Speaker 1: comes down to the end, Washington won. These are not
Speaker 1: two quality teams. Going back to overall deficient efficiency, Washington ninth,
Speaker 1: Giants twenty fifth, not close special teams. Giants have been
Speaker 1: terrible week after week after week, and special teams giving
Speaker 1: up big returns, not making their kicks thirty first, Washington seventh.
Speaker 1: Here's some more numbers since week four. This Washington defense,
Speaker 1: which was supposed to be the weak side. That's a
Speaker 1: pretty long sample now since week four. I'm including week
Speaker 1: four that was the Arizona game. Second in EPA per
Speaker 1: play allowed, fourth in total points allowed per game. They're
Speaker 1: getting it done. Steve Weisch was in this studio and
Speaker 1: saying how they've really simplified things. They're playing fast now
Speaker 1: when they play better opponents. Do I think their defense
Speaker 1: is going to be world beaters? No, like we saw
Speaker 1: what happen against Baltimore. But this is not a world beater.
Speaker 1: There's no home field advantage. Everyone's sick of Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: in New York. They could be booinged by the middle
Speaker 1: of the second quarter. There's nothing really to feel good about.
Speaker 1: And so I could see it being close in the
Speaker 1: middle of the third quarter, where it's still at the four,
Speaker 1: it's at seven. But I really like Washington. I think
Speaker 1: they're a real deal team, and I don't believe in
Speaker 1: the Giants at all.
Speaker 2: Completely agree.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give just because New York's had a hard
Speaker 3: week and like b'rella people, even though maybe not LA fans,
Speaker 3: like you know, I'm the Dodger, you know, whatever, so.
Speaker 1: I've jumped on board with the Dodge.
Speaker 2: I see Dexi's good. They're really good. They have most
Speaker 2: sacks in the league.
Speaker 3: And Dexter, who when I want to meet him and
Speaker 3: become friends with him, just so I could be like
Speaker 3: my friend dex you know, like, I just feel like
Speaker 3: that would be good.
Speaker 2: They've been good with that.
Speaker 3: And also on the other side, you know Bobby Wagner
Speaker 3: in this defense, Like I understand he's not the youngest
Speaker 3: cat on the block, but his ability on that Washington
Speaker 3: defense to be that guy.
Speaker 2: The voice, the quarterback of the defense or whatever you want.
Speaker 3: To call it, but basically not miss tackles, their tackle
Speaker 3: efficiency rate, meaning how they've stopped teams from getting Yaka yoko.
Speaker 2: To He just loves when he does that.
Speaker 3: But anyways, but yeah, like that's been a really big
Speaker 3: that's been a really big difference maker for this Washington defense.
Speaker 3: I'm totally on the same side as that good That
Speaker 3: was one of mine for sure.
Speaker 1: I like it. And yeah, Tyrone Tracy, who had been
Speaker 1: breaking a lot of tackles playing well for the Giants.
Speaker 1: They have a good rookie class.
Speaker 2: But he might not be playing.
Speaker 1: He's probably not playing in this game coming off of
Speaker 1: a concussion. So that's my second pick. We're both in
Speaker 1: on Atlanta. I take Washington. You had the Bills. What
Speaker 1: is your final pick?
Speaker 3: And in the Battle of Apolis's the one in Minneapolis
Speaker 3: on sun I think there's a number five. If I
Speaker 3: like the number six, I certainly like the number five.
Speaker 3: So Minneapolis with five points, woo in Minneapolis against Indianapolis
Speaker 3: to see who wins the Battle of the Apolis.
Speaker 1: Is I okay? I bet? I wonder if Colts fans
Speaker 1: will travel. That's it's not too far to Minneapolis relatively.
Speaker 1: It's nice not you drive to that. No, I guess
Speaker 1: you have to like take a like a do okay,
Speaker 1: explain why because I want to know why the model
Speaker 1: you think likes the Vikings better. Because I got to
Speaker 1: admit Indy plus five is on my little box list,
Speaker 1: but it's not my third pick. But we were going
Speaker 1: to go against each other on the.
Speaker 3: Oh, yeah, that's fine. We gotta go against each other
Speaker 3: on one of them. Yeah, a couple of reasons. I
Speaker 3: know Joe Flacco's starting, but when it comes to the
Speaker 3: types of blitz that Brian Flores likes to execute. Last
Speaker 3: week against the Rams, things were wonky at the end.
Speaker 3: When we were doing anything we were doing for our shows,
Speaker 3: we did not know that Cooper Cup was for sure playing,
Speaker 3: and we certainly didn't know that Puku and Aaku was
Speaker 3: playing until the ninety minutes prior. We didn't know, So
Speaker 3: there was a lot lot of things that were different
Speaker 3: and there they could have won that game. It's not
Speaker 3: like it was such a huge butt kicking that it
Speaker 3: was super convincing either way. So the types of blitz
Speaker 3: is that Brian Flores likes to throw out there, they're
Speaker 3: not as easy to execute as Michael Pittman's maybe not
Speaker 3: playing that's not great. Is Josh Jowns fully healthy. I
Speaker 3: know Jonathan Taylor is supposed to play in this game,
Speaker 3: and their O line is good. However, the way that
Speaker 3: that defense executes, it's just going to be very hard.
Speaker 3: Even though Joe Flacker's Flacker, Joe Flacker.
Speaker 2: Is a much better thrower. Joe Flacco is a great thrower.
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe you're maybe convincing me almost to cross out,
Speaker 1: So I kind of get why. Like you look at
Speaker 1: the numbers because they're over the course of the season
Speaker 1: are maybe more meaningful than just the last two weeks.
Speaker 1: But there is an eye test thing that Okay, quarterbacks
Speaker 1: who can understand a little bit what Minnesota is doing,
Speaker 1: attack the middle of the field, copy a little bit
Speaker 1: what the last two offenses have done. Could Joe Flacco
Speaker 1: do that? Throw into his tight ends? Throwing with this
Speaker 1: play duchdowns he should. I know he's on the injury report,
Speaker 1: but he finished last week's games. We'll see about when.
Speaker 3: You have two three guys that are potential pass catchers,
Speaker 3: way different than when you have like one guy like hey.
Speaker 1: It's me, Yeah, that's fair. And Bernard Ryman is ryme
Speaker 1: injury report with a concussion. The NFL has done a
Speaker 1: bad job with these spotters like Bernard Ryman gave up
Speaker 1: huge sacks at the end of last week's game. Then
Speaker 1: he showed up the next day and he turns out
Speaker 1: he was concussed playing through a concussion. That would be
Speaker 1: a big loss for them against a good pass rush.
Speaker 1: Five just felt a little rich for a game that
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just kind of expect these Vikings
Speaker 1: games to come down to the final possession, these Colts
Speaker 1: games to come down to the final possession. You're maybe
Speaker 1: pushing me off putting that in the box. I don't
Speaker 1: know my third pick.
Speaker 3: Wait one thing with Christian Dara saw being gone, I
Speaker 3: was worried. But they got Cam Robinson.
Speaker 1: That helps a lot. That helps a big time. Okay,
Speaker 1: a big time. I feel like we need to be
Speaker 1: on the same page here. Although I wanted the Colts
Speaker 1: as my backup to my Baltimore minus nine pick, now
Speaker 1: I don't like picking anything that could have an injury, repercussions.
Speaker 1: And maybe by the time you guys hear this, the
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson thing will be taken care of. I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna assume Lamar Jackson's playing when you finish on Sunday.
Speaker 1: You're starting quarterback in the NFL. Almost certainly, this is
Speaker 1: the guy who's played through a lot of things. You're
Speaker 1: playing the next week. That said, he's misspracticed Wednesday and Thursday.
Speaker 1: That's never a good sign. It's never a good sign
Speaker 1: when John Harbaugh says it's a rest day, but then
Speaker 1: he shows up on the injury port as a kneeback.
Speaker 1: I don't care. He looked good last week. I actually
Speaker 1: thought he played well against Cleveland. His offensive line didn't,
Speaker 1: and that's a concern this week. And yet this is
Speaker 1: one of those lines where I look at, Wow, nine points,
Speaker 1: that's crazy against the Broncos, and they're almost begging you
Speaker 1: to take the Broncos, and I'm not gonna do it.
Speaker 1: This is maybe a spiteful pick. I'm not believing in
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I believe they're fine. I believe they're like
Speaker 1: eight and nine, but I don't think bo Knicks can
Speaker 1: get it done against a good defense. Is this a
Speaker 1: good defense statistically? No, but I do think it's a
Speaker 1: great team overall, and great teams respond. That was a
Speaker 1: division game last week, a matchup they've had some struggles
Speaker 1: with against Cleveland. You're coming off a loss. You're one
Speaker 1: of the very best teams in the entire NFL in
Speaker 1: my mind, the Baltimore Ravens returning home, and so I
Speaker 1: think this offense can make the Broncos blitz look very average,
Speaker 1: run straight through them, be able to handle the Blitzz.
Speaker 1: You got Deontay Johnson. That's another outside receiver. We'll see
Speaker 1: how big of a factor he is. But ultimately I'm
Speaker 1: looking at as like an eight or nine win team
Speaker 1: on the road against one of the best teams in
Speaker 1: the NFL who's absolutely ready to bounce back from last week,
Speaker 1: So I say nine points is not enough. Bo Nicks
Speaker 1: make some mistakes, has a couple turnovers in this game,
Speaker 1: and they end up walking away with it. Maybe it's
Speaker 1: not like a twenty point win, but it's thirty to sixteen.
Speaker 1: They cover the nine. Let's go Ravens.
Speaker 3: You know what's wild is the rookie quarterback who scored
Speaker 3: the most offensive touchdowns this year is Bonux not Jane
Speaker 3: de I mean, I just thought that stat was wild.
Speaker 3: And I just want to know how you feel about
Speaker 3: my two preseason win total picks, because I feel like
Speaker 3: this is I'm pretty happy about these. Yes, my NFC
Speaker 3: pick for who was going to exceed their expectations was
Speaker 3: the Seattle Seahawks, who was at who were at six
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 2: How are we feeling about that?
Speaker 1: That's fit? That's looking And how about.
Speaker 3: Them Broncos five and a half baby five and a
Speaker 3: half wins?
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?
Speaker 1: Are you? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Am I happy about that?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: You're right? Am I tooting my own heart?
Speaker 1: Be shp? You should? That's if you can cash like
Speaker 1: an over under win total.
Speaker 4: Before Thanksgiving, well before Thanksgiving, maybe maybe he can catch
Speaker 4: it on Sunday if I'm just gonna eat good if
Speaker 4: I'm very very wrong, Okay, so I'm going Baltimore minus
Speaker 4: nine as my third pick on the off chance that
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Just that, but backup for housekeeping purposes,
Speaker 4: I'll just go with your Bills pick as my third, Okay,
Speaker 4: And that is it. And yes, every week I have
Speaker 4: a little box of extra picks. They've done pretty well
Speaker 4: over the course of the season, all though.
Speaker 3: The box was the box came out of the gates
Speaker 3: on fire.
Speaker 1: On fire, and they get on some water lately. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with my Flacco plus five. I like
Speaker 1: the Bills, as I mentioned, as kind of my backup there,
Speaker 1: I get totally out of the Ravens business. If Lamar
Speaker 1: is not playing, forget that game for just stay away.
Speaker 1: And then the other one I kind of like this
Speaker 1: week was Cincinnati minus nine as long as t Higgins.
Speaker 1: You know te Higgins actually, I think makes a big
Speaker 1: difference to me, and we're not sure about his status.
Speaker 1: But I think they are a good team that absolutely
Speaker 1: needs to win. I'm not giving up on them. The
Speaker 1: Raiders have a defense that I won't be able to
Speaker 1: stop them. Through the air or on the ground. I
Speaker 1: actually think Chase Brown could get it going this week.
Speaker 3: So I think it's I think this is a wild
Speaker 3: one where the Raiders have two different identities. There's the
Speaker 3: good Raiders that can somehow upset the Ravens, and then
Speaker 3: there's the not good Raiders and those are the ones
Speaker 3: that are like, what am I even watching here?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: So I'm just curious which one is going to show
Speaker 3: up because my only kind of hmm, what are my
Speaker 3: little clues here? Well, Roberts Bulaine has played this Bengals.
Speaker 2: Team quite a bit.
Speaker 3: He was a Steeler front okay, and Max Crosby. His
Speaker 3: pressure rate is low for his season total. Usually he
Speaker 3: didn't really wouldn't really make a lot of noise last week.
Speaker 2: So my I mean, I'm just saying for the number.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying for the win, just out of cure,
Speaker 3: Like I don't know, So I don't know that it's
Speaker 3: just which identity is coming, Yeah, the one that Antonio
Speaker 3: Pierce like feels like is the one that takes on
Speaker 3: the identity of their coach.
Speaker 1: Coming or is like it's like when they can get
Speaker 1: up for games and Gardner Minshew plays well that's two
Speaker 1: different things. They got up for that Chiefs game. They
Speaker 1: played well, you know they covered, they didn't. They didn't
Speaker 1: end up winning that game. Gardner Minshew played well. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you can expect that two straight weeks.
Speaker 1: So I like Cincinnati minus seven, but I like him
Speaker 1: a lot better if t Higgins is that's right, playing
Speaker 1: two review. We are both in on the Falcons. I
Speaker 1: have Gobert Anders and the Ravens. You have the Bill
Speaker 1: and your final pick was I forgot Minnesota. Minnesota. That's
Speaker 1: right where we're going against each other. Thank you, Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 1: Check out Numbers Game on YouTube each and every week.
Speaker 1: Check out this show on YouTube each and every week.
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Speaker 1: one I'm doing and that's the one that we're doing
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Speaker 1: on Sunday Night with Patrick Claybon and Nick Nick Schook
Speaker 1: from Cleveland. Yes, when we're talking about November. Football, I
Speaker 1: mean football is really back. It's never been more back.