Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: When President Trump says We're done, Israel's going to be done.
Speaker 2: Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an agreement
Speaker 2: is not something that Israel favors.
Speaker 1: Shira Ephron on how Israeli's see the war with Iran
Speaker 1: and what's at stake politically is the fact that there's
Speaker 1: an election coming in Israel. Part of the Prime Minister's
Speaker 1: calculation in starting this war.
Speaker 2: There is a sense in Israel that disperpetual state of
Speaker 2: war also serves the Prime Minister's political objectives. This is
Speaker 2: a good reason to keep the spounding elections, especially if
Speaker 2: all pulling shows that you're not likely to win again.
Speaker 1: From Bloomberg Weekend, this is the Michelle Hussein Show. I'm
Speaker 1: Michelle Hussein once again. The headlines have been moving fast
Speaker 1: on the Middle East, so fast that at times it's
Speaker 1: been nearly impossible to work out where the truth actually lies.
Speaker 1: One moment, there's a US threat to bomb power plants,
Speaker 1: then a pivot towards a deal with Iran, which made
Speaker 1: us think, where does that unpredictability on US intentions leave Israel.
Speaker 1: Opinion polls have suggested that around eighty percent of Israelis
Speaker 1: support the Iran war, and that's part of what we
Speaker 1: explore in this conversation. It's with Sheer Efron, who's been
Speaker 1: a Middle East andalst for the last twenty years. She's
Speaker 1: now Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy at RAND, a think
Speaker 1: tank which gets much of its funding from the US
Speaker 1: government and the US military. I'd heard her say on
Speaker 1: another podcast that she's more about policy than politics, but
Speaker 1: we did talk about political leadership, the Israeli election expected
Speaker 1: later this year, and also about the Mossad and Iran,
Speaker 1: what Israel is doing in Lebanon, the situation in Gaza
Speaker 1: and on the West Bank. We began though with Shira herself,
Speaker 1: because after these weeks of war, I did want to
Speaker 1: know what the impact had been on her life in
Speaker 1: Tel Aviv.
Speaker 2: It's lost on outside audiences who see Israel and the
Speaker 2: US's the aggressors here right and look at the damage
Speaker 2: that Iran is inflicting on everyone else, to forget there
Speaker 2: is a human dimension also in Israel, regardless of the
Speaker 2: rule in this war. I will say on the personal alvel,
Speaker 2: we are fine God. Plus, you know we have our
Speaker 2: bomb shelter at home that we When we moved into
Speaker 2: this house, we never thought we would use but past
Speaker 2: October seventh, it's been the room most frequented in the
Speaker 2: house by all of us. So it's back to routine,
Speaker 2: quite heavy hitting. We live in the central part of Israel,
Speaker 2: in Tel Aviv, so Tel Aviv has hit pretty frequently
Speaker 2: rounded the sirens. I have three boys who are, unlike
Speaker 2: their parents, quite happy to be at home, but it's
Speaker 2: something that they've gotten used to. Right after COVID, which
Speaker 2: the whole world experience, and then post October seven, I
Speaker 2: think these kids had barely had school in the past
Speaker 2: six years.
Speaker 1: But even at home, it means that there are times
Speaker 1: you hear the sirens day or night and you're all
Speaker 1: down in the bomb shelter.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, there's a pretty functioning system, but there's a
Speaker 2: ear shattering scream that comes through the phones before the
Speaker 2: sirens come to make sure you wake up. And then
Speaker 2: about between six to ten minutes afterwards the sirens come,
Speaker 2: we all go down to the shelter. You waited ten minutes.
Speaker 2: You hear those bombs exploding somewhere, whether it's a direct hit,
Speaker 2: and it's quite a warning, but you even hear the
Speaker 2: kids say, oh, it sounds like a cluster rocket now,
Speaker 2: or it sounds like a direct hit, or maybe it's
Speaker 2: the iron dome interception. Then we get out. We try
Speaker 2: to sort of continue with our lives, but we're mostly
Speaker 2: strand to go. It's we're fine, got used to this,
Speaker 2: but it is challenging, and there are other Israelis who
Speaker 2: are less less lucky. Right, there been casualties, obviously, property
Speaker 2: damages across the country.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and help me understand whether Israeli public opinion on
Speaker 1: this war has shifted as the weeks have gone on.
Speaker 1: The most recent polling I've seen has suggested about eighty
Speaker 1: percent support for this war. Do you sense any change
Speaker 1: in the public mood?
Speaker 2: So, I think there are two things that can be
Speaker 2: true at once. Support for the war mays it around
Speaker 2: eight percent. These are the last balls that I've seen
Speaker 2: as well from a variety of sources. There is a
Speaker 2: belief in the necessity of this to remove an existential
Speaker 2: threat from Israel, and we can debate the merit of
Speaker 2: this argument. However, there is a fatigue. Right people are
Speaker 2: home with the kids. It's very difficult for working parents
Speaker 2: to go to work. I think anyone who survived COVID
Speaker 2: with kids would sympathize with this issue. It takes a
Speaker 2: toll on the independence people who own their own businesses. Obviously,
Speaker 2: anyone who is in reserve duty Israel has been a
Speaker 2: tour for around nine hundred days. I have friends who've
Speaker 2: been in reserve duty for eight hundred of these days.
Speaker 2: And there is maybe in slight decline in the numbers
Speaker 2: in the belief that this war will reach its objectives,
Speaker 2: which from an Israeli perspective, was supposed to bring to
Speaker 2: a toppling of the Iranian regime. And I think this
Speaker 2: is where we see the slight shift and sort of understanding, Yes,
Speaker 2: this war is necessary and it is weakening their regime
Speaker 2: and it's degrading capabilities that Iran has Israel, but there's
Speaker 2: a slight decline in the belief that it will remove
Speaker 2: the threat once and for all. Yeah.
Speaker 1: But is that also linked to the fact that last
Speaker 1: summer Israelis were told by Benjamin Ettana, who at the
Speaker 1: end of the Twelve Day War that the sword of
Speaker 1: the Iranian threat hanging over their heads had been removed.
Speaker 1: Is there any level of confusion at being told that
Speaker 1: last summer and going to war again this year.
Speaker 2: Oh absolutely, And I think there's a feeling of deja vu.
Speaker 2: We had heard only in June twenty twenty five that
Speaker 2: the Iranian threat was removed. Obviously, the US President also
Speaker 2: said that he obliterated the Iranian nuclear plan. So how
Speaker 2: come only eight months after and the Israeli public, unlike
Speaker 2: publics around the world, have been ready for round two
Speaker 2: for a couple of months before this round broke. Very clearly,
Speaker 2: the question is like, wait, if we just did it,
Speaker 2: how come we need to do it again? And it's
Speaker 2: not just Iran. There's a secondary frond that could turn
Speaker 2: into a primary front. But when we look at the
Speaker 2: South Lobano we had heard that Hasbeala was decimated, right
Speaker 2: Hasbella as a Shia group in Lebanon. It's also a
Speaker 2: terrorist group that Hasbala was decimated and that we took
Speaker 2: out its arsenal. So in a sense, there is misalignment
Speaker 2: with the promises and the declarations that are coming from
Speaker 2: Israeli leadership versus reality. And this is I think one
Speaker 2: of the gaps that is frustrating the Israeli public.
Speaker 1: And that makes me want to ask you, Shira, is
Speaker 1: the fact that there's an election coming in Israel part
Speaker 1: of the Prime Minister's calculation and starting this war.
Speaker 2: So one of the I think the most frustrating thing
Speaker 2: in Israel at the moment that it's very difficult to
Speaker 2: disconnect anything that is happening in this country from political motivations.
Speaker 2: For Prime Minister Natamyao, I want to say, Iran has
Speaker 2: been like a religion for four decades. He's been speaking
Speaker 2: about the need to remove the to heat the Islamic
Speaker 2: Republic of Iran. Yeah, he's using apocalyptic terms and he's
Speaker 2: been using them for three to four decades, including presentations
Speaker 2: with props of the UN that some people may remember.
Speaker 2: So it is genuine from his perspective. It does not
Speaker 2: mean that what he sees is the national interest does
Speaker 2: not align well with his political interests. And of course,
Speaker 2: the reason for opening this war the first round in
Speaker 2: June and then now again this was an operational opportunity
Speaker 2: that we can get into. But there is a sense
Speaker 2: in Israel that the desire to keep israel Is off
Speaker 2: their feet and in this perpetual state of war also
Speaker 2: serves the Prime Minister's political objectives because first of all,
Speaker 2: it's very differ to go to elections when you're in
Speaker 2: the middle of a rua, Right, this is a good
Speaker 2: reason to keep spounding elections, especially if all pulling shows
Speaker 2: that you're not likely to win again.
Speaker 1: Just to dig into that, you think that could be
Speaker 1: part of the calculation, a desire to delay the election.
Speaker 1: So there might not be one this year.
Speaker 2: It's difficult to say if there's going to be. There's
Speaker 2: an indication now that the elections will take place in time.
Speaker 2: But I do want to remind you that when October
Speaker 2: seven happened, the biggest failure, the biggest massacre of Jews
Speaker 2: since the Holocaust, right, the expectation in Israel was that
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister will resign and the country will go
Speaker 2: to elections to receive a renewed mandate from the Israeli public.
Speaker 2: That has not happen, and the pretext for this not
Speaker 2: happening was something that the coalition leadership has said all alone,
Speaker 2: we can't go to elections when we're in the middle
Speaker 2: of the war. So it is possible that the elections
Speaker 2: will take place on time, which is going to be
Speaker 2: somewhere in the fall this year. It is possible all
Speaker 2: on God knows where we're going to be there, then
Speaker 2: the election will have to be postponed. But also Nataniel
Speaker 2: himself has portrayed himself all his life as a mister Security,
Speaker 2: and being in state of war could strengthen him. We're
Speaker 2: not saying into the milipolls yet, but versus his in
Speaker 2: comparison to his contenders as mister Security, and so it
Speaker 2: serves a dual goal, even though the motivation has not
Speaker 2: just been political, that's for sure, Okay.
Speaker 1: I just want to explore some of the recent reporting
Speaker 1: about the backdrop to the war and the thinking in
Speaker 1: the Israeli leadership.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you know.
Speaker 1: The New York Times was reporting the other day that
Speaker 1: the Mossad chief went to the Prime Minister with a
Speaker 1: plan and said he believed that within days of the
Speaker 1: war's beginning, his service would likely be able to galvanize
Speaker 1: the Iranian opposition, igniting riots other acts of rebellion that
Speaker 1: could lead to the collapse of the regime. So how
Speaker 1: did Mosad get it so wrong?
Speaker 2: So I have not seen the power point by the Masad.
Speaker 2: I see some reporting now that indicates Mossad never said
Speaker 2: this will happen right away, that there's a timeline issue
Speaker 2: after strikes are complete within I think it sr in
Speaker 2: between six months and a year, the Iranian regime will fall.
Speaker 2: And by the way, we can think of the counterfactual.
Speaker 2: We've seen these massive protests in Iran in January, right,
Speaker 2: and we also knew that Ayatola a le jam I
Speaker 2: was going to be eighty seven years old soon. So
Speaker 2: there is a hypothetical scenario that even without the strikes,
Speaker 2: this regime would fall in a year. We can never
Speaker 2: test this, but this is sort of in the defense
Speaker 2: of the maissade. There's a timeline issue that was not
Speaker 2: reported in that regard. You know this leek, whether it
Speaker 2: came from the US or it came from the IDEF.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of competition in terms of the IDEAF
Speaker 2: and masad here and the politicians who wants to throw
Speaker 2: the facade under the bus. But here is where I
Speaker 2: would have expected some agency right on the part of
Speaker 2: leadership both Israel and the US, to say, Okay, this
Speaker 2: is one idea and one option, but what if it
Speaker 2: doesn't work, and you can base decisions on hypothetical operational
Speaker 2: plan to topple a regime. My fear is that these reports,
Speaker 2: and I'm sure they're based on truth and New York
Speaker 2: Times does the most serious reporting. They only would only
Speaker 2: should I alter to be diplomatic. There are a lot
Speaker 2: of people around the world of blame Israel for dragging
Speaker 2: the US into this woar, and these reports only strengthened
Speaker 2: this narrative, which I think for Israel is very very dangerous.
Speaker 1: Dangerous because because of American public opinion, because.
Speaker 2: Of American public opinion, first and foremost American legislators obviously,
Speaker 2: and I'm mine to say that whereas the Israeli public
Speaker 2: and the Israeli government Prime Minister at Taniao sees the
Speaker 2: international communities between Pennsylvania Avenue and Capitol Hill, it also
Speaker 2: matters what public opinion is in other countries. You know,
Speaker 2: Israel is or it's not part of Europe, but it
Speaker 2: has the most important trade relationships with Europe, most investment,
Speaker 2: open skies, flights, cultural initiatives, the Israeli academia and R
Speaker 2: and D cannot survive without European funday. I mean, it
Speaker 2: matters what the world thinks and relationships matter. And I
Speaker 2: haven't even begun speaking about you know, the neighborhood the
Speaker 2: Middle East.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's already clear that Israel has become more
Speaker 1: divisive within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, as
Speaker 1: well as within the Democratic Party. And also there's polling
Speaker 1: suggesting that more Americans today are sympathetic towards the Palestinians
Speaker 1: than the Israelis. I want to ask how closely connected
Speaker 1: to that you are, Like, what you really feel when
Speaker 1: you see numbers like that, Shirah, Because you were born
Speaker 1: in New York, you move to Israel with your parents,
Speaker 1: you are a citizen of both countries.
Speaker 2: Yes, you know, it's very I have no issues with
Speaker 2: having greater sympathy for the Palestinians, right and I don't
Speaker 2: think it's to be a zero sum game. But I
Speaker 2: will speak of the decline of the favorite views of
Speaker 2: Israeli Is around the world. I think it's very dangerous
Speaker 2: strategically because, first of all, for Israel, the pillar of
Speaker 2: defense of national security is the special relationship with the
Speaker 2: United States, and I'm not sure this relationship can be sustained,
Speaker 2: definitely not with these trends that we're seeing at the moment.
Speaker 2: On the personal level, there's also an issue. The relationship
Speaker 2: between Israel and the Jewish community has been also a
Speaker 2: pillar of Israel's strength, and as someone who roams in
Speaker 2: both of these communities, I often find that the Jewish
Speaker 2: community is awfully concerned in the US and both sides
Speaker 2: Republicans and Democrats. Most of the Jews in the United
Speaker 2: States are Democrats, but on both sides there's real concern
Speaker 2: for Israelis. I don't think that Israelis are fully sympathetic
Speaker 2: to American Jews and diaspora Jews in the same way
Speaker 2: and not understanding how difficult it has been also for
Speaker 2: American Jews. And I'm speaking of the American Jews, not elsewhere,
Speaker 2: because this is the community I know the most. How
Speaker 2: sure it's been for them over the past two and
Speaker 2: a half years, starting after October seven, obviously with protest campuses,
Speaker 2: but not only that, rising anti Semitism and being associated
Speaker 2: with the country that might have dragged the US into war.
Speaker 2: I don't buy this narrative, but it's definitely a narrative
Speaker 2: that is there, and Israel does not understand that what
Speaker 2: it does affects an entire community that is connected to Israel,
Speaker 2: and it is important to Israel. So you know, both
Speaker 2: on the strategic levels but also on the personal levels,
Speaker 2: it's very worsome and.
Speaker 1: Here in the UK, where I'm speaking to you from.
Speaker 1: In the last few days there's been an attack on
Speaker 1: ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in London, which has
Speaker 1: been chilling not only for the Jewish community but many
Speaker 1: others watching.
Speaker 2: We definitely see the rise of anti Semitism. And I'm
Speaker 2: not one that thinks that any criticism of Israeli policy
Speaker 2: is anti Semitism. There's a very clear difference, but the
Speaker 2: number speaks for themselves. There's arousing anti semitism and it
Speaker 2: feeds into a narrative. And in Israel, both the policy
Speaker 2: makers and the public is I don't say you believe
Speaker 2: is to this, but not as sensitive as they need
Speaker 2: to be, not understanding that it will.
Speaker 1: Backfire on the relationship with the United States. Regardless of
Speaker 1: who took whom to war, there is something fundamentally different
Speaker 1: that happened last summer with the Twelve Day War, and
Speaker 1: now that the two countries have been part of this
Speaker 1: war together, one that, as you said, the is Ready
Speaker 1: Prime minister has wanted for a long time, but this
Speaker 1: has been a joint enterprise. What happens do you think
Speaker 1: if that changes? What happens if Donald Trump decides to stop,
Speaker 1: and if you look at his later statements, there's very
Speaker 1: little mention of Israel. He says, we are very willing
Speaker 1: to do a deal. The US is willing to do
Speaker 1: a deal with Iran.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, so very big. I mean, I think there
Speaker 2: is a difference between the Twelve Day War and what
Speaker 2: we're seeing now. Obviously, the twelve Day War, the United
Speaker 2: States President Trump gave a green light for Israel and
Speaker 2: after Israel or the sky and did all the work,
Speaker 2: you know, the United States game. But the airmen's capabilities
Speaker 2: performing the mission of you know, Hurdo and using capabilities
Speaker 2: were developed just for this specific mission, and it was
Speaker 2: game over. And even then it was very clear that
Speaker 2: even if this was portrayed as a partnership, Trump at
Speaker 2: the end of the day did tell Israeli planes which
Speaker 2: were in the air to strike Tehran to turn around.
Speaker 2: And I have heard from people who were in the
Speaker 2: command center of the Air Force where you had the
Speaker 2: chief of the Israeli Air Force with one phone with
Speaker 2: the pilots and another fund with the Prime Minister at
Speaker 2: Tanao on getting them an order in real time, you know,
Speaker 2: come back, come back, come back. So this was an order,
Speaker 2: straight order from the US President, not from the Israeli
Speaker 2: Prime minister. What we have here is a very different partnership.
Speaker 2: And you have Israeli Air Force officers, even senior level
Speaker 2: and in double digit numbers, who are stationed in Syncom
Speaker 2: and vice versa working together. But in terms of the
Speaker 2: decision making, it's not a partnership. There's one boss, and
Speaker 2: this boss is President Trump. But it's very clear, and
Speaker 2: israelis across the board, including in the defense establishment or
Speaker 2: saying this. When President Trump says we're done, Israel's going
Speaker 2: to be done. It's not Lebanon or the other friends.
Speaker 2: And Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an
Speaker 2: agreement is not something that Israel favors.
Speaker 1: So there's no question in your mind Israel could would
Speaker 1: not continue if the US calls it a day and
Speaker 1: doesn't deal with your own.
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't say no chance at all, but
Speaker 2: I'll put ninety nine ninety percent that Israel stops. And
Speaker 2: I think this is why we're likely to see, not
Speaker 2: that the tempo has changed, but if you listen to
Speaker 2: some leaks that came out the first days of the war,
Speaker 2: because it was unknown in Israel. How long? What's going
Speaker 2: to be the duration of this what started as an operation,
Speaker 2: and I think undeniably is a lore that Israel said
Speaker 2: we had to strike whatever we can as fast as possible,
Speaker 2: because this can be stopped in a moment, and we
Speaker 2: would have to avibate. Whether Iran stops, it's a different
Speaker 2: question whether there's another round in the future. But I
Speaker 2: think that if there is a declaration of some sort
Speaker 2: of a ceasefire and agreement is well, we'll have to abibate.
Speaker 1: And what then happens to Lebanon because that has been
Speaker 1: this other front, including with ground forces, that has opened
Speaker 1: up in the last few weeks, including the blowing up
Speaker 1: of bridges, and now the Finance Minister Bezalels Motrich saying
Speaker 1: that the Litani River in southern Lebanon should be a
Speaker 1: new border between Israel and Lebanon. Yes, now, if that happens,
Speaker 1: and that's essentially a new occupation.
Speaker 2: Right exactly, it's probably not likely. But I would have
Speaker 2: hoped that whatever agreement, if there is one with Iran,
Speaker 2: it is a broader agreement at all also includes Isabella.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure the US attention is there at the moment,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure Israel is pushing for it, but
Speaker 2: absent this what is now a very secondary front Lebanon
Speaker 2: could turn into the primary front with Israel just digging deeper.
Speaker 2: We're suing targeted strikes, but we're also seeing the idea
Speaker 2: of taking more and more positions inside Lebanon and creating
Speaker 2: the facto a buffer zone. It is not an occupation
Speaker 2: at the moment, but it could turn into one absent
Speaker 2: a diplomatic agreement. And you know, Israel has a long
Speaker 2: history of occupying land in Lebanon and it never delivered
Speaker 2: the result that Israeli is won. So I'm very concerned
Speaker 2: about this folly, and I do hope that the international community,
Speaker 2: and it needs to be led by the United States,
Speaker 2: sees this idea of capitalizing on military achievements in Iran
Speaker 2: and the fact that the Iranians are going to be
Speaker 2: busy and maybe unable to fund their proxies at the
Speaker 2: same level, and taking advantages of really remarkable historical trends
Speaker 2: in Lebanon. Untacked isbella sentiment and I don't say welcoming
Speaker 2: of Israel, but no longer the taboo of imagining even
Speaker 2: peace with Israel, and there's really an opportunity in Lebanon
Speaker 2: that we risk squandering now with digging deeper, doing something
Speaker 2: that you know, this definition of insanity, doing the same
Speaker 2: thing over and over again and expecting different results. This
Speaker 2: is how I see the Israeli campaign at the moment.
Speaker 2: And no one questions the fact that the Israeli North
Speaker 2: the Galilee shouldn't be shelled by a terrorist organization on
Speaker 2: the border, and that the Lebanese state should do more
Speaker 2: to contain it. But Israel has a partner in Lebanon,
Speaker 2: and if Israel occupies parts of Lebanon, it's going to
Speaker 2: lose the partner.
Speaker 1: The Lebanese government. You mean, who would like to see
Speaker 1: his bula design and its influence brought to an end.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the Libanese government. And we have the Libanese
Speaker 2: public and you know the Shia eyed community, which is
Speaker 2: the Hazabella support base. We're seeing also a fractures in
Speaker 2: this support base. People are representatives of the Shia community.
Speaker 2: They're saying, well, Hissbala doesn't represent us. They care more
Speaker 2: about the interests of Iran than the interest of the Lebanese.
Speaker 2: And so you know, this whole idea of disarming terrorist organizations.
Speaker 2: It can never be a solely military endeavor. It hasn't
Speaker 2: worked anywhere and where you are with the IRA. It's
Speaker 2: never just a kinetic activity. It has to come with
Speaker 2: the support. There's a political partter that's not less important.
Speaker 2: And this opportunity for taking on Husabala politically is available
Speaker 2: now in Lebano. The Liberese government needs help. They don't
Speaker 2: need to be splashed from the side.
Speaker 1: Are you even saying share that the policy of disarming
Speaker 1: terrorist organizations even as you look at Gaza that ultimately
Speaker 1: this strategy on Hamas has not worked and will not
Speaker 1: work as we.
Speaker 2: Talk now, and maybe under the fog of war everyone
Speaker 2: forgot where Gaiza is. But we are five months in
Speaker 2: after signing it p sease firing Gaza, that, thank goodness,
Speaker 2: brought the Israeli hostages back home and allowed the Palestinians
Speaker 2: in Gaza some sort of respite of relief. But as
Speaker 2: we're looking at Kasa, you have Tamas that the fact
Speaker 2: a sovereign governor of half of Gaza where most of
Speaker 2: the people are israel occupied the other half. There are
Speaker 2: so many indications that Tomas is really the governing power
Speaker 2: with arms on the street. Israel for two years try
Speaker 2: to disarm Haamas kinetically and it hasn't worked. It has
Speaker 2: to come with the political part, where Palestinians will disarmed Palestinians.
Speaker 2: It has to be something the Palestinian people choose to do.
Speaker 2: And now I do hope that after this your on
Speaker 2: round finishes, can focus on Gaza where there is a framework.
Speaker 2: We can criticize some elements of it. That the twenty
Speaker 2: point plan that President Trump had delivered in a National
Speaker 2: Technocratic Committee. It's supposed to come into Gaza and Palaestinina
Speaker 2: authority that is supposed to come back at one point
Speaker 2: after But none of these things have advanced. But the
Speaker 2: opportunity still exists and we shouldn't miss that either because
Speaker 2: otherwise what it means is that Israel will go back
Speaker 2: to finding in Gaza as well. And this could happen
Speaker 2: in the next few months.
Speaker 1: And would that be with again the blessing of the Americans.
Speaker 1: Because there's this little recognized internationally body, the Civil Military
Speaker 1: Cooperation Center, which is essentially part of the US Army,
Speaker 1: and that is in southern Israel. I think you know
Speaker 1: about that organization. It's part it's supposed to be monitoring
Speaker 1: the ceasefire and keeping an eye on what's happening on
Speaker 1: the ground in Gaza.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a frequent visit to the CMCC, and I
Speaker 2: think it has a lot of advantages monitoring the ceasfire
Speaker 2: and coordinating aid or goods that go into Gaza. And
Speaker 2: I don't know if the US has got to bless
Speaker 2: renewed fighting. I do think and maybe I hope that
Speaker 2: President Trump sees this as an achievement of his policy,
Speaker 2: the pursuit of peace, bringing this ceasefire and creating the structures.
Speaker 2: And I have a lot of appreciation for the Trump administration.
Speaker 2: I had not thought that they would lead a UN
Speaker 2: Security Council resolution, that they would be speaking about negotiations
Speaker 2: and Palestinian state right. And I think because of pressure
Speaker 2: for the international community did go to these modalities and
Speaker 2: brought them into their framework. I'm putting aside the other
Speaker 2: criticisms of issues. It all hinges now on Hamas willing
Speaker 2: to accept a gradual disarmament framework and following through and
Speaker 2: then Israel agreeing to do what it takes. My assessment
Speaker 2: is that neither side, not Israel, nor mass not Kalestinian authority,
Speaker 2: not the UN. No one wants to be blamed for
Speaker 2: the railing this effort because it is important to President Trump.
Speaker 2: I am not sure that any of these parties really
Speaker 2: want this to succeed. And for this to succeed, you
Speaker 2: need realm to make an atmost effort. And that's why
Speaker 2: the US push is very much are needed because again
Speaker 2: there is a ceasefire, but the fire hasn't really ceased.
Speaker 1: But I mean share this death toll of seventy thousand
Speaker 1: people Palestinians, not including those who might be buried under
Speaker 1: the rubble, still including eighteen thousand children. And at the
Speaker 1: same time, to see what is ongoing in the West Bank,
Speaker 1: you know, and that's not only Israeli settlers, that's also
Speaker 1: the actions of the Israeli military. And just one example
Speaker 1: was the shooting of a couple and two children in
Speaker 1: their car the other day. It's it's an ongoing picture
Speaker 1: that despite the fact that journalists don't have access to
Speaker 1: many of these scenes, it is seen and the images
Speaker 1: and the accounts do travel.
Speaker 2: It is so tragic what is happening between Israelis and Palestinians.
Speaker 2: And when we talk about existential threats. I think this
Speaker 2: is the existential threat for Israel, right when Israel is
Speaker 2: supposed to be a Jewish democracy and we have this
Speaker 2: going on in areas that Israel controls security wise. I'm
Speaker 2: going to separate the two for a moment. The Gaza
Speaker 2: death toll is something that is still being debated, not
Speaker 2: in terms of the numbers, but in terms of the
Speaker 2: breakdowns of how many of these have been militants. But
Speaker 2: there's no question I think this is something that Israelis
Speaker 2: have become knowntive to see the suffering on the other side.
Speaker 2: Children are children are children. It does not matter if
Speaker 2: they're the children of terrorists, right they are not. It's
Speaker 2: not their fault. There is the killing, and I don't
Speaker 2: believe the idea was engaged on purpose in indiscriminatory killing.
Speaker 2: I know, I know it's it doesn't sound right, but
Speaker 2: there are protocols here in terms of opening fire. But
Speaker 2: the fact is that two years fighting in an urban
Speaker 2: warfare and being more risk averse about maybe soldiers' lives
Speaker 2: than Palestinian lives gets to this outcome where I saw
Speaker 2: what I think and I wrote something about it. Some
Speaker 2: Israelis were upset when I wrote it, but sort of
Speaker 2: just this idea of not being none to the suffering
Speaker 2: of people when it's talking about humanitarian aid, making sure
Speaker 2: that people have shelter, making sure that people have food.
Speaker 2: And this was also something that we saw on the
Speaker 2: schooler and it's very I mean when you talk about
Speaker 2: you know, the Jewish American and me, right, it's against
Speaker 2: Jewish values and not seeing this. And yes, of course,
Speaker 2: of course there were Israeli hostages in Gaza, and of
Speaker 2: course they were treated in I mean, we can't even
Speaker 2: imagined the suffering that they've been through. And there was
Speaker 2: no empathy and no sympathy among the Israelis for Palestinians
Speaker 2: after what had happened October seven, the rape, mining and
Speaker 2: everything that happened. But this is where, you know, nothing
Speaker 2: justified October seven, but October seven, in my view, couldn't
Speaker 2: justify everything. And this is where we were in Gaza.
Speaker 2: The West Bank is almost like a separate territory even
Speaker 2: though it is Palestinian. It's Allo Smotridge, who you mentioned
Speaker 2: when it comes to Lebanon, he's arguably, and don't hate
Speaker 2: me for saying this, is arguably the number one strategist
Speaker 2: in Israel. At the moment because he and I'll give
Speaker 2: him credit for r it says what he means, he
Speaker 2: writes is black and white in Hebrew and in English,
Speaker 2: speaks in the same language. And he in twenty seventeen
Speaker 2: had a manifestel where he says that Israel will annex
Speaker 2: all the West Bank and will transfer the Palestinian population,
Speaker 2: and if they are not happy with the conditions there offer,
Speaker 2: they're willing to fight. And basically under the flag of war.
Speaker 2: He's been implementing his vision in the West Bank. And
Speaker 2: what we have is the facto annexation of territory, making
Speaker 2: Palistenian's lives miserable. And it's not maybe a government I
Speaker 2: don't want to say government sponsored, but it's unchecked behavior
Speaker 2: of saying settler violence because the violence is occurring in
Speaker 2: the West Bank, but a complete disregard for Palestinian lives
Speaker 2: and livelihood.
Speaker 1: You interviewed mister Smatrich, didn't you a few years ago
Speaker 1: when I think when he was starting to talk about
Speaker 1: this plan. Did you, as you sat with him at
Speaker 1: that time, did you think this is a fantasy or
Speaker 1: did you think he's going to make this happen.
Speaker 2: Well, we spoke on the phone he was the Minister
Speaker 2: of Transportation. Then I thought it was a fantasy. I didn't.
Speaker 2: You're a poor comparison different visions for the Israeli Palestinian conflict,
Speaker 2: including like a one state solution. I think around the world,
Speaker 2: where people talk about one state solution, they imagine the Kumbaya,
Speaker 2: equal state, equal rights for all. It was very clear
Speaker 2: back then that more likely one state is this Mortridge
Speaker 2: vision one state. But I had never imagined in my
Speaker 2: life the Pritzal's Mortridge, who was intergeted by the event
Speaker 2: for his path and involvement in violent activities, would ever
Speaker 2: be the Finance Minister of this country, and with the
Speaker 2: portfolio of minister in the Defense ministry that gives him
Speaker 2: the control of the bureaucracy, and so much of it
Speaker 2: is you probably know, Brits, you're so much of it
Speaker 2: is bureaucracy, the control of the bureaucracy of Israel's control
Speaker 2: of the West Bank, which is able to do both
Speaker 2: through specific budgets and also different structures. So no, I
Speaker 2: couldn't imagine could he be Prime Minister? I don't think so. Again,
Speaker 2: to the extended polls are indicative of the outcomes. He
Speaker 2: may not pass the electorals threshold, so his party may
Speaker 2: be out of the government in the next elections when
Speaker 2: we have elections, which is why he's rushing to implement
Speaker 2: his vision because he's not sure he's going to have
Speaker 2: another turn. I don't think we are not going to
Speaker 2: see him again, and he might join forces with others.
Speaker 2: All these shenanigans here to get people back in mcnassat
Speaker 2: the Israeli proman. But I don't think he could be pregnister.
Speaker 2: But who knows.
Speaker 1: But haven't some of his positions become more mainstream in Israel,
Speaker 1: Like whatever happens to his own political future, hasn't Israeli
Speaker 1: public as a whole been moved more to the right,
Speaker 1: not only since October the seventh, but before that.
Speaker 2: I think you're exactly right. We are seeing a shift
Speaker 2: to the right. It's not that Israelis were on the
Speaker 2: verge of a two state solution on October six, twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three, and October seventh shadowed the picture. We can
Speaker 2: trace maybe Israeli shift to the Second Indifada, which came
Speaker 2: after a peace process. Israelis felt that a hood barack,
Speaker 2: you know, back then. Finally Sturge genuinely offered, gave a
Speaker 2: peace proposal to back then RFU and with buses exploding
Speaker 2: in the middle of the cities, that sort of turned
Speaker 2: the Israelies and thinking that there's no partner on the other side.
Speaker 2: Antonio definitely fed on the no partner and for a
Speaker 2: long time until October seven, Israelis didn't even remember there
Speaker 2: were Palestinians around. Think about it, Gaza behind a wall.
Speaker 2: We saw it's a more fickle wall than we had
Speaker 2: to assume, but Gaza was behind a wall. Most Israelies
Speaker 2: don't live in the West Bank, they don't visit the
Speaker 2: West Bank even gets close to the West Bank. So
Speaker 2: you live your life normally. You pretend you're part of Europe,
Speaker 2: go to the US often there's a booming tech sector
Speaker 2: and didn't even remember the Palestinians to think about taking
Speaker 2: your risk. Why when there was no imminent threat, And
Speaker 2: then when the ultimate threat came right in October seventh,
Speaker 2: sort of showed in the most monstrous way that there
Speaker 2: are actors on the other side. And HAMAS is not
Speaker 2: the Palestinian authority. HAMAS is a terrorist organization. Not all
Speaker 2: Palestinians want to kill Israelis, but in the Israeli mindset
Speaker 2: that fed into a narrative that there are no innocent
Speaker 2: people in Gaza. Propel what we mentioned before sent as
Speaker 2: you hear from Israelis, and if we pull away from
Speaker 2: the West Bank, the same thing that happened from Gaza
Speaker 2: will happen. And that's closer to Tel Aviv and closer
Speaker 2: to the airport and closer to Jerusalem, and God forbid
Speaker 2: we could do this. We can never have them independent
Speaker 2: and we can never withdraw. And this is something that's thinking,
Speaker 2: and I do hope it will take some time for
Speaker 2: the Israelis to think there's another way, but I do
Speaker 2: hope there will also be leadership that presents this alternative vision,
Speaker 2: because one of the tragedies is it's not just naowl.
Speaker 2: Also from the opposition leaders, you don't hear the vision
Speaker 2: of separating peacefully from the Palestinians understanding that there's a
Speaker 2: partner on the other side, not an ideal partner, but
Speaker 2: there's a partner on the other side. The vast majority
Speaker 2: of Palestinians do not want to wake up in the
Speaker 2: morning and kill Jews, right. Israelis don't hear that, and
Speaker 2: they should hear this from leadership. It shouldn't come to
Speaker 2: the public to tell the leadership what to do. That's
Speaker 2: not how leadership is supposed to work.
Speaker 1: But it would be a brave leader, wouldn't it, who
Speaker 1: stood up and said Palestinians have rights too. Just as
Speaker 1: Israel has a right to exist, Palestine should have a
Speaker 1: right to exist.
Speaker 2: It's a very brave Israeli positioned to take today, and
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone will take it. The tragedy I
Speaker 2: think of both Israelis and Palestinians is that it's portrayed
Speaker 2: a zero sum game and it's not. Your right to
Speaker 2: self determination does not negate the others. And it's a
Speaker 2: small piece of land. But frankly, and there is some
Speaker 2: pulling on this, most Israelis and definitely most Palaestinians, but
Speaker 2: most Israelis don't care about one hilltop somewhere where they
Speaker 2: don't even know where it is, closer to the border
Speaker 2: of Jordan. The only one wake up in the morning
Speaker 2: and feel safe. And Palestinians want to feel safe too.
Speaker 2: And you know, it's easier for me to speak about
Speaker 2: the lack of Israeli leadership that presents this vision, but
Speaker 2: we haven't had a good vision on Palestinian side either right,
Speaker 2: a Palestinian leader that comes and tells their people we
Speaker 2: live with the Israelies. Most of these Raellies don't want
Speaker 2: to kill us. We accept there was war and we're
Speaker 2: probably not going to return to our homes at Haifa
Speaker 2: and in Tel Aviv, but we will have a state
Speaker 2: and we will coexist and claim responsibility and offer a
Speaker 2: vision that, frankly, before speaking to these Raellies dignifies the
Speaker 2: Palestinians with efficient services that they deserve. They deserve better
Speaker 2: leadership too.
Speaker 1: To close sharea can I ask you to think ahead
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty eight. It'll be the year of Israel's
Speaker 1: eightieth birthday. It will also be by the end of
Speaker 1: the year a time with a new president coming into
Speaker 1: the White House in the United States. What do you
Speaker 1: think Israel will look like by then? What do you
Speaker 1: think Israel US relations will look like by then?
Speaker 2: You know, I do want to be optimistic because I
Speaker 2: can't stress how important the next Israeli elections are. And
Speaker 2: only in our group of friends, the very few who
Speaker 2: are still in Israel, because so many of them have
Speaker 2: left the country in the past few years as a
Speaker 2: direct result of the policies of the Israeli government, but
Speaker 2: so many of the others that have loved are holding
Speaker 2: their passports in hand and not making decisions about changing
Speaker 2: house and stuff, just waiting for the outcomes of this selection.
Speaker 2: If there's a different government in Israel, maybe not the
Speaker 2: ideal government, but the different government that sees the benefits
Speaker 2: of the country, all of the country, not just the
Speaker 2: Suttler and the Haredi population, right the sectors that they support,
Speaker 2: and sees as a priority to First of all, I'm
Speaker 2: not saying that we're I doubt we're going to see
Speaker 2: a Palestinian state, but there's going to be a complete
Speaker 2: stop to settler violence and complete hold to the damaging trends,
Speaker 2: and leadership that improves relationship with Israel's neighbors, and that
Speaker 2: sees the Jewish community and sees the need to improve
Speaker 2: relationship with Europe, which is really a big priority issue
Speaker 2: also for Israel. I think Israeli US ties can sustain
Speaker 2: this also, and we're going to see a shift. We're
Speaker 2: not past the rutb becoon a sense that I think
Speaker 2: it's it's a lost cause. However, if the elections bring
Speaker 2: us a coalition government. That is sort of what we're
Speaker 2: saying today, which is which is unlikely, and all polling
Speaker 2: shows that this coalition is not going to come to
Speaker 2: being again. It's going to be very, very difficult to
Speaker 2: convince the world that there needs to be a separation
Speaker 2: between the Israeli government and the Israeli public. Share Evron,
Speaker 2: thank you very much, Thank you, Michelle, thank you for
Speaker 2: having me.
Speaker 1: And that where we left the conversation, which is the
Speaker 1: fourth Inner Row to explore what's happening in the Middle
Speaker 1: East from different angles. So if you haven't heard Bernard
Speaker 1: Hakel on MBS and the Gulf Arabs, or Vali Nasser
Speaker 1: on Iran, or Congressman Roe Kanna with an American political take,
Speaker 1: well you'll find them and more in this feed. And
Speaker 1: as ever, there's more context in the written version of this,
Speaker 1: which includes my notes, and that's at Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1: Forward slash micheal and so to the team. The producers
Speaker 1: are Jessica Beck and Chris Martlu. The video producer is
Speaker 1: Andy Hayward. Social media is by Alex Morgan, Production assistance
Speaker 1: by Jennifer Seeley, audio mixing by Richard Ward. Our music
Speaker 1: is by Bart Walshaw and the executive producer is Louisa Lewis.
Speaker 1: At Bloomberg Weekend, the director of Audio and Special Projects
Speaker 1: is Brendan Francis Newnham, and our executive editor is Catherine Bell.
Speaker 1: This week we also want to say thank you, thank
Speaker 1: you to Alex Sagira, and to remind you all, our
Speaker 1: email is Michelle Show at Bloomberg dot net and we
Speaker 1: always right back until next time. Goodbye,