WEBVTT - Why Israel Could Be Forced to Stop: Shira Efron on War, Fatigue and Netanyahu's Strategy 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.960 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:12.000 When President Trump says We're done, Israel's going to be done. 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:16.440 Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an agreement 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:19.080 is not something that Israel favors. 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:24.600 Shira Ephron on how Israeli's see the war with Iran 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:29.440 and what's at stake politically is the fact that there's 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:32.919 an election coming in Israel. Part of the Prime Minister's 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:34.480 calculation in starting this war. 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:38.839 There is a sense in Israel that disperpetual state of 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:43.600 war also serves the Prime Minister's political objectives. This is 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.560 a good reason to keep the spounding elections, especially if 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.640 all pulling shows that you're not likely to win again. 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:56.240 From Bloomberg Weekend, this is the Michelle Hussein Show. I'm 0:00:56.280 --> 0:01:04.400 Michelle Hussein once again. The headlines have been moving fast 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.240 on the Middle East, so fast that at times it's 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:12.760 been nearly impossible to work out where the truth actually lies. 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:16.119 One moment, there's a US threat to bomb power plants, 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:21.280 then a pivot towards a deal with Iran, which made 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:27.040 us think, where does that unpredictability on US intentions leave Israel. 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:31.759 Opinion polls have suggested that around eighty percent of Israelis 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:35.039 support the Iran war, and that's part of what we 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:40.319 explore in this conversation. It's with Sheer Efron, who's been 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.640 a Middle East andalst for the last twenty years. She's 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:47.720 now Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy at RAND, a think 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:50.240 tank which gets much of its funding from the US 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:54.480 government and the US military. I'd heard her say on 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:58.920 another podcast that she's more about policy than politics, but 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:03.960 we did talk about political leadership, the Israeli election expected 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:07.720 later this year, and also about the Mossad and Iran, 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:11.360 what Israel is doing in Lebanon, the situation in Gaza 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:16.840 and on the West Bank. We began though with Shira herself, 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.560 because after these weeks of war, I did want to 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.320 know what the impact had been on her life in 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:23.920 Tel Aviv. 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:31.280 It's lost on outside audiences who see Israel and the 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:35.240 US's the aggressors here right and look at the damage 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:38.440 that Iran is inflicting on everyone else, to forget there 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.920 is a human dimension also in Israel, regardless of the 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:45.400 rule in this war. I will say on the personal alvel, 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:48.000 we are fine God. Plus, you know we have our 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.839 bomb shelter at home that we When we moved into 0:02:51.880 --> 0:02:54.840 this house, we never thought we would use but past 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:58.240 October seventh, it's been the room most frequented in the 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:02.120 house by all of us. So it's back to routine, 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:06.080 quite heavy hitting. We live in the central part of Israel, 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.640 in Tel Aviv, so Tel Aviv has hit pretty frequently 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:15.239 rounded the sirens. I have three boys who are, unlike 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:17.480 their parents, quite happy to be at home, but it's 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:20.640 something that they've gotten used to. Right after COVID, which 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:24.200 the whole world experience, and then post October seven, I 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:27.600 think these kids had barely had school in the past 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:28.400 six years. 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.680 But even at home, it means that there are times 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:34.200 you hear the sirens day or night and you're all 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:35.600 down in the bomb shelter. 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:39.880 Yes, yes, there's a pretty functioning system, but there's a 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:43.760 ear shattering scream that comes through the phones before the 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.640 sirens come to make sure you wake up. And then 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:50.080 about between six to ten minutes afterwards the sirens come, 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:52.680 we all go down to the shelter. You waited ten minutes. 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:57.440 You hear those bombs exploding somewhere, whether it's a direct hit, 0:03:57.600 --> 0:03:59.760 and it's quite a warning, but you even hear the 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:02.680 kids say, oh, it sounds like a cluster rocket now, 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:04.760 or it sounds like a direct hit, or maybe it's 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.920 the iron dome interception. Then we get out. We try 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:11.880 to sort of continue with our lives, but we're mostly 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:16.040 strand to go. It's we're fine, got used to this, 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:19.560 but it is challenging, and there are other Israelis who 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:24.440 are less less lucky. Right, there been casualties, obviously, property 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.960 damages across the country. 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:33.320 Yeah, and help me understand whether Israeli public opinion on 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:36.839 this war has shifted as the weeks have gone on. 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.839 The most recent polling I've seen has suggested about eighty 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:44.279 percent support for this war. Do you sense any change 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:45.200 in the public mood? 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.200 So, I think there are two things that can be 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:51.640 true at once. Support for the war mays it around 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:54.000 eight percent. These are the last balls that I've seen 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.200 as well from a variety of sources. There is a 0:04:57.279 --> 0:05:01.760 belief in the necessity of this to remove an existential 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.880 threat from Israel, and we can debate the merit of 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:09.320 this argument. However, there is a fatigue. Right people are 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:13.120 home with the kids. It's very difficult for working parents 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:15.920 to go to work. I think anyone who survived COVID 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:19.120 with kids would sympathize with this issue. It takes a 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:24.880 toll on the independence people who own their own businesses. Obviously, 0:05:24.960 --> 0:05:28.040 anyone who is in reserve duty Israel has been a 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.960 tour for around nine hundred days. I have friends who've 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.400 been in reserve duty for eight hundred of these days. 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:37.640 And there is maybe in slight decline in the numbers 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:41.760 in the belief that this war will reach its objectives, 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.440 which from an Israeli perspective, was supposed to bring to 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:49.159 a toppling of the Iranian regime. And I think this 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.240 is where we see the slight shift and sort of understanding, Yes, 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:56.800 this war is necessary and it is weakening their regime 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:01.799 and it's degrading capabilities that Iran has Israel, but there's 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.200 a slight decline in the belief that it will remove 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:06.360 the threat once and for all. Yeah. 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:09.800 But is that also linked to the fact that last 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:13.800 summer Israelis were told by Benjamin Ettana, who at the 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:16.800 end of the Twelve Day War that the sword of 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:21.400 the Iranian threat hanging over their heads had been removed. 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:25.520 Is there any level of confusion at being told that 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:27.440 last summer and going to war again this year. 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:31.440 Oh absolutely, And I think there's a feeling of deja vu. 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:35.560 We had heard only in June twenty twenty five that 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:39.240 the Iranian threat was removed. Obviously, the US President also 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:42.960 said that he obliterated the Iranian nuclear plan. So how 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:47.280 come only eight months after and the Israeli public, unlike 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:52.080 publics around the world, have been ready for round two 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:55.400 for a couple of months before this round broke. Very clearly, 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:57.600 the question is like, wait, if we just did it, 0:06:57.680 --> 0:06:59.920 how come we need to do it again? And it's 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:04.640 not just Iran. There's a secondary frond that could turn 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:06.600 into a primary front. But when we look at the 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:10.560 South Lobano we had heard that Hasbeala was decimated, right 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.080 Hasbella as a Shia group in Lebanon. It's also a 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:16.680 terrorist group that Hasbala was decimated and that we took 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:20.520 out its arsenal. So in a sense, there is misalignment 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:25.080 with the promises and the declarations that are coming from 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:30.960 Israeli leadership versus reality. And this is I think one 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:33.360 of the gaps that is frustrating the Israeli public. 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:37.080 And that makes me want to ask you, Shira, is 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.520 the fact that there's an election coming in Israel part 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:43.520 of the Prime Minister's calculation and starting this war. 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.080 So one of the I think the most frustrating thing 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.560 in Israel at the moment that it's very difficult to 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:56.960 disconnect anything that is happening in this country from political motivations. 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:01.880 For Prime Minister Natamyao, I want to say, Iran has 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:06.200 been like a religion for four decades. He's been speaking 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.480 about the need to remove the to heat the Islamic 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:13.920 Republic of Iran. Yeah, he's using apocalyptic terms and he's 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:18.720 been using them for three to four decades, including presentations 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.480 with props of the UN that some people may remember. 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:26.920 So it is genuine from his perspective. It does not 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:29.880 mean that what he sees is the national interest does 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:34.600 not align well with his political interests. And of course, 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:38.880 the reason for opening this war the first round in 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.920 June and then now again this was an operational opportunity 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.520 that we can get into. But there is a sense 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.360 in Israel that the desire to keep israel Is off 0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:54.600 their feet and in this perpetual state of war also 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:59.160 serves the Prime Minister's political objectives because first of all, 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:01.480 it's very differ to go to elections when you're in 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:02.959 the middle of a rua, Right, this is a good 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:06.760 reason to keep spounding elections, especially if all pulling shows 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.000 that you're not likely to win again. 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.000 Just to dig into that, you think that could be 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:14.520 part of the calculation, a desire to delay the election. 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:15.960 So there might not be one this year. 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:20.600 It's difficult to say if there's going to be. There's 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.640 an indication now that the elections will take place in time. 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.520 But I do want to remind you that when October 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:30.640 seven happened, the biggest failure, the biggest massacre of Jews 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:34.640 since the Holocaust, right, the expectation in Israel was that 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:37.920 the Prime Minister will resign and the country will go 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:42.120 to elections to receive a renewed mandate from the Israeli public. 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.040 That has not happen, and the pretext for this not 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:49.680 happening was something that the coalition leadership has said all alone, 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.480 we can't go to elections when we're in the middle 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:56.040 of the war. So it is possible that the elections 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:57.760 will take place on time, which is going to be 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.240 somewhere in the fall this year. It is possible all 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:01.800 on God knows where we're going to be there, then 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:05.360 the election will have to be postponed. But also Nataniel 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.720 himself has portrayed himself all his life as a mister Security, 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:12.160 and being in state of war could strengthen him. We're 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:16.160 not saying into the milipolls yet, but versus his in 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:20.080 comparison to his contenders as mister Security, and so it 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:23.040 serves a dual goal, even though the motivation has not 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:25.840 just been political, that's for sure, Okay. 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:30.960 I just want to explore some of the recent reporting 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:37.920 about the backdrop to the war and the thinking in 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:39.320 the Israeli leadership. 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:40.120 I'm sure you know. 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:42.280 The New York Times was reporting the other day that 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:45.640 the Mossad chief went to the Prime Minister with a 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:48.720 plan and said he believed that within days of the 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:52.199 war's beginning, his service would likely be able to galvanize 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:56.079 the Iranian opposition, igniting riots other acts of rebellion that 0:10:56.280 --> 0:11:01.959 could lead to the collapse of the regime. So how 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:03.760 did Mosad get it so wrong? 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:08.800 So I have not seen the power point by the Masad. 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:12.400 I see some reporting now that indicates Mossad never said 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.520 this will happen right away, that there's a timeline issue 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:20.360 after strikes are complete within I think it sr in 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:24.320 between six months and a year, the Iranian regime will fall. 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:27.880 And by the way, we can think of the counterfactual. 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:32.360 We've seen these massive protests in Iran in January, right, 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:35.480 and we also knew that Ayatola a le jam I 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:37.360 was going to be eighty seven years old soon. So 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:42.160 there is a hypothetical scenario that even without the strikes, 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:44.480 this regime would fall in a year. We can never 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:46.000 test this, but this is sort of in the defense 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:48.840 of the maissade. There's a timeline issue that was not 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:52.320 reported in that regard. You know this leek, whether it 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.640 came from the US or it came from the IDEF. 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.440 There's a lot of competition in terms of the IDEAF 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.800 and masad here and the politicians who wants to throw 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.760 the facade under the bus. But here is where I 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.520 would have expected some agency right on the part of 0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:11.440 leadership both Israel and the US, to say, Okay, this 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:13.839 is one idea and one option, but what if it 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:18.560 doesn't work, and you can base decisions on hypothetical operational 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:23.719 plan to topple a regime. My fear is that these reports, 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.760 and I'm sure they're based on truth and New York 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:31.400 Times does the most serious reporting. They only would only 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:34.760 should I alter to be diplomatic. There are a lot 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.559 of people around the world of blame Israel for dragging 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:42.079 the US into this woar, and these reports only strengthened 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:46.400 this narrative, which I think for Israel is very very dangerous. 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.839 Dangerous because because of American public opinion, because. 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:56.359 Of American public opinion, first and foremost American legislators obviously, 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:00.760 and I'm mine to say that whereas the Israeli public 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:03.320 and the Israeli government Prime Minister at Taniao sees the 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:10.079 international communities between Pennsylvania Avenue and Capitol Hill, it also 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:13.679 matters what public opinion is in other countries. You know, 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.319 Israel is or it's not part of Europe, but it 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.760 has the most important trade relationships with Europe, most investment, 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:27.640 open skies, flights, cultural initiatives, the Israeli academia and R 0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:31.760 and D cannot survive without European funday. I mean, it 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:36.079 matters what the world thinks and relationships matter. And I 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.760 haven't even begun speaking about you know, the neighborhood the 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:39.320 Middle East. 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:43.840 I mean, it's already clear that Israel has become more 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:48.920 divisive within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, as 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.800 well as within the Democratic Party. And also there's polling 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:57.360 suggesting that more Americans today are sympathetic towards the Palestinians 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:02.199 than the Israelis. I want to ask how closely connected 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.920 to that you are, Like, what you really feel when 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.680 you see numbers like that, Shirah, Because you were born 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.600 in New York, you move to Israel with your parents, 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:13.320 you are a citizen of both countries. 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:18.160 Yes, you know, it's very I have no issues with 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.240 having greater sympathy for the Palestinians, right and I don't 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:22.920 think it's to be a zero sum game. But I 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.800 will speak of the decline of the favorite views of 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.440 Israeli Is around the world. I think it's very dangerous 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.880 strategically because, first of all, for Israel, the pillar of 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.640 defense of national security is the special relationship with the 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:39.240 United States, and I'm not sure this relationship can be sustained, 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.320 definitely not with these trends that we're seeing at the moment. 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:47.080 On the personal level, there's also an issue. The relationship 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.240 between Israel and the Jewish community has been also a 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:54.280 pillar of Israel's strength, and as someone who roams in 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:57.560 both of these communities, I often find that the Jewish 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:00.280 community is awfully concerned in the US and both sides 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.560 Republicans and Democrats. Most of the Jews in the United 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.560 States are Democrats, but on both sides there's real concern 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:12.200 for Israelis. I don't think that Israelis are fully sympathetic 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:16.440 to American Jews and diaspora Jews in the same way 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.960 and not understanding how difficult it has been also for 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:24.680 American Jews. And I'm speaking of the American Jews, not elsewhere, 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.200 because this is the community I know the most. How 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:29.920 sure it's been for them over the past two and 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:34.960 a half years, starting after October seven, obviously with protest campuses, 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:41.520 but not only that, rising anti Semitism and being associated 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.440 with the country that might have dragged the US into war. 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.680 I don't buy this narrative, but it's definitely a narrative 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:51.600 that is there, and Israel does not understand that what 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:56.160 it does affects an entire community that is connected to Israel, 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.400 and it is important to Israel. So you know, both 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:01.640 on the strategic levels but also on the personal levels, 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:03.360 it's very worsome and. 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:05.520 Here in the UK, where I'm speaking to you from. 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.560 In the last few days there's been an attack on 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:12.960 ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in London, which has 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:16.080 been chilling not only for the Jewish community but many 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:16.840 others watching. 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:21.160 We definitely see the rise of anti Semitism. And I'm 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.480 not one that thinks that any criticism of Israeli policy 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.640 is anti Semitism. There's a very clear difference, but the 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:31.320 number speaks for themselves. There's arousing anti semitism and it 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:35.920 feeds into a narrative. And in Israel, both the policy 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:40.040 makers and the public is I don't say you believe 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:43.280 is to this, but not as sensitive as they need 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:45.400 to be, not understanding that it will. 0:16:45.200 --> 0:17:09.879 Backfire on the relationship with the United States. Regardless of 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:14.000 who took whom to war, there is something fundamentally different 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:16.680 that happened last summer with the Twelve Day War, and 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:20.800 now that the two countries have been part of this 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:24.880 war together, one that, as you said, the is Ready 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.320 Prime minister has wanted for a long time, but this 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:30.400 has been a joint enterprise. What happens do you think 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:35.240 if that changes? What happens if Donald Trump decides to stop, 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.479 and if you look at his later statements, there's very 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.679 little mention of Israel. He says, we are very willing 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:44.159 to do a deal. The US is willing to do 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:45.000 a deal with Iran. 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.120 Yes, yes, so very big. I mean, I think there 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:50.720 is a difference between the Twelve Day War and what 0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:55.720 we're seeing now. Obviously, the twelve Day War, the United 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.720 States President Trump gave a green light for Israel and 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.920 after Israel or the sky and did all the work, 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.640 you know, the United States game. But the airmen's capabilities 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:10.440 performing the mission of you know, Hurdo and using capabilities 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.960 were developed just for this specific mission, and it was 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:15.679 game over. And even then it was very clear that 0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:19.119 even if this was portrayed as a partnership, Trump at 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:22.240 the end of the day did tell Israeli planes which 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.840 were in the air to strike Tehran to turn around. 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.280 And I have heard from people who were in the 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:30.600 command center of the Air Force where you had the 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.439 chief of the Israeli Air Force with one phone with 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:35.879 the pilots and another fund with the Prime Minister at 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.199 Tanao on getting them an order in real time, you know, 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:42.040 come back, come back, come back. So this was an order, 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.160 straight order from the US President, not from the Israeli 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.760 Prime minister. What we have here is a very different partnership. 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.960 And you have Israeli Air Force officers, even senior level 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.880 and in double digit numbers, who are stationed in Syncom 0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.800 and vice versa working together. But in terms of the 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:05.080 decision making, it's not a partnership. There's one boss, and 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:09.240 this boss is President Trump. But it's very clear, and 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:13.000 israelis across the board, including in the defense establishment or 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.919 saying this. When President Trump says we're done, Israel's going 0:19:15.960 --> 0:19:18.920 to be done. It's not Lebanon or the other friends. 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:23.119 And Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:26.960 agreement is not something that Israel favors. 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:30.840 So there's no question in your mind Israel could would 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:33.879 not continue if the US calls it a day and 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:35.320 doesn't deal with your own. 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.320 I mean, I can't say no chance at all, but 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:43.199 I'll put ninety nine ninety percent that Israel stops. And 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:45.560 I think this is why we're likely to see, not 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:50.280 that the tempo has changed, but if you listen to 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:54.520 some leaks that came out the first days of the war, 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.800 because it was unknown in Israel. How long? What's going 0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:00.480 to be the duration of this what started as an operation, 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:04.160 and I think undeniably is a lore that Israel said 0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:07.400 we had to strike whatever we can as fast as possible, 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:11.119 because this can be stopped in a moment, and we 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:14.920 would have to avibate. Whether Iran stops, it's a different 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:19.119 question whether there's another round in the future. But I 0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:21.520 think that if there is a declaration of some sort 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:24.000 of a ceasefire and agreement is well, we'll have to abibate. 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:28.120 And what then happens to Lebanon because that has been 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:34.000 this other front, including with ground forces, that has opened 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.199 up in the last few weeks, including the blowing up 0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:41.000 of bridges, and now the Finance Minister Bezalels Motrich saying 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:43.760 that the Litani River in southern Lebanon should be a 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:48.000 new border between Israel and Lebanon. Yes, now, if that happens, 0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:50.800 and that's essentially a new occupation. 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:54.239 Right exactly, it's probably not likely. But I would have 0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:58.240 hoped that whatever agreement, if there is one with Iran, 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.600 it is a broader agreement at all also includes Isabella. 0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:04.639 I'm not sure the US attention is there at the moment, 0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:07.399 and I'm not sure Israel is pushing for it, but 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:10.960 absent this what is now a very secondary front Lebanon 0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:14.840 could turn into the primary front with Israel just digging deeper. 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:19.080 We're suing targeted strikes, but we're also seeing the idea 0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:23.000 of taking more and more positions inside Lebanon and creating 0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:27.720 the facto a buffer zone. It is not an occupation 0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:33.080 at the moment, but it could turn into one absent 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:37.480 a diplomatic agreement. And you know, Israel has a long 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:41.240 history of occupying land in Lebanon and it never delivered 0:21:41.280 --> 0:21:44.800 the result that Israeli is won. So I'm very concerned 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:48.879 about this folly, and I do hope that the international community, 0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:51.480 and it needs to be led by the United States, 0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:56.479 sees this idea of capitalizing on military achievements in Iran 0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:58.199 and the fact that the Iranians are going to be 0:21:58.520 --> 0:22:01.920 busy and maybe unable to fund their proxies at the 0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:07.080 same level, and taking advantages of really remarkable historical trends 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:11.960 in Lebanon. Untacked isbella sentiment and I don't say welcoming 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:15.440 of Israel, but no longer the taboo of imagining even 0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:19.480 peace with Israel, and there's really an opportunity in Lebanon 0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:25.440 that we risk squandering now with digging deeper, doing something 0:22:25.560 --> 0:22:28.920 that you know, this definition of insanity, doing the same 0:22:28.960 --> 0:22:33.000 thing over and over again and expecting different results. This 0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:35.240 is how I see the Israeli campaign at the moment. 0:22:35.760 --> 0:22:40.080 And no one questions the fact that the Israeli North 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:45.240 the Galilee shouldn't be shelled by a terrorist organization on 0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:49.680 the border, and that the Lebanese state should do more 0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:52.800 to contain it. But Israel has a partner in Lebanon, 0:22:52.920 --> 0:22:55.679 and if Israel occupies parts of Lebanon, it's going to 0:22:55.720 --> 0:22:56.640 lose the partner. 0:22:56.520 --> 0:22:58.920 The Lebanese government. You mean, who would like to see 0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:03.159 his bula design and its influence brought to an end. 0:23:03.359 --> 0:23:07.440 Yeah, it's the Libanese government. And we have the Libanese 0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:10.639 public and you know the Shia eyed community, which is 0:23:10.640 --> 0:23:14.159 the Hazabella support base. We're seeing also a fractures in 0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:17.680 this support base. People are representatives of the Shia community. 0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:21.080 They're saying, well, Hissbala doesn't represent us. They care more 0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:23.440 about the interests of Iran than the interest of the Lebanese. 0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:28.879 And so you know, this whole idea of disarming terrorist organizations. 0:23:28.960 --> 0:23:33.080 It can never be a solely military endeavor. It hasn't 0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:37.040 worked anywhere and where you are with the IRA. It's 0:23:37.160 --> 0:23:40.879 never just a kinetic activity. It has to come with 0:23:40.960 --> 0:23:44.760 the support. There's a political partter that's not less important. 0:23:44.960 --> 0:23:50.160 And this opportunity for taking on Husabala politically is available 0:23:50.320 --> 0:23:53.920 now in Lebano. The Liberese government needs help. They don't 0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:56.119 need to be splashed from the side. 0:23:56.640 --> 0:24:00.440 Are you even saying share that the policy of disarming 0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:04.320 terrorist organizations even as you look at Gaza that ultimately 0:24:04.359 --> 0:24:07.480 this strategy on Hamas has not worked and will not 0:24:07.560 --> 0:24:09.080 work as we. 0:24:09.000 --> 0:24:11.679 Talk now, and maybe under the fog of war everyone 0:24:11.760 --> 0:24:15.000 forgot where Gaiza is. But we are five months in 0:24:15.200 --> 0:24:18.160 after signing it p sease firing Gaza, that, thank goodness, 0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:22.439 brought the Israeli hostages back home and allowed the Palestinians 0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:25.760