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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis

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Speaker 1: along with Doug Krisner join us each day for the stories,

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Speaker 1: making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. You

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Speaker 1: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcasts

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Speaker 1: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Joining us now is Market's live strategist

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Speaker 1: Mark Cranfield. Do with us here on the program, Mark,

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Speaker 1: we are looking at the China markets and we know

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Speaker 1: that this big move by the banks is partially trying

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Speaker 1: to jolt investors out of their torpor and help the

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Speaker 1: property market. As you look at markets this morning, you'll

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Speaker 1: see some red numbers here. Will it work well?

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Speaker 2: I think there's a little bit of disappointment that although

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Speaker 2: the five year loan rate was cut by a little

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Speaker 2: bit more than people had expected, there was no change

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Speaker 2: in the one year and we also China skip doing

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Speaker 2: the one year medium term facility at the weekend as well.

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Speaker 2: So what we haven't seen is any short term interest

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Speaker 2: rates being lowered. And in terms of markets, especially equity

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Speaker 2: markets and bomb markets, they're really a bit more interested

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Speaker 2: in what happens with short term rates and long term rates.

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Speaker 2: So that's probably part of the disappointment as to why

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Speaker 2: Chinese equities are a little bit soft in early trading

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Speaker 2: so far.

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Speaker 3: Do you really believe that rate policy is going to

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Speaker 3: reinvigorate the investor in the Chinese market, right? Is it

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Speaker 3: going to take something more than that at this point?

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Speaker 3: I mean, given the kind of desperation that people have

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Speaker 3: been feeling.

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Speaker 2: It's only one of many things. I mean, as you suggest,

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Speaker 2: I mean, on its own, no, it probably will not

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Speaker 2: turn around the Chinese markets very dramatically. It needs to

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Speaker 2: be in conjunction with another and a lot of other

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Speaker 2: moves as well. And of course you've got these big

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Speaker 2: things like more fixes for the property market, more factors

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Speaker 2: which support the lending to the right sectors of the

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Speaker 2: economy as well, and you can see that've been in

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Speaker 2: buying stocks via ETFs and all those kind of things

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Speaker 2: will have to continue. It's not going to be interest

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Speaker 2: rates on their own. It has to be some sort

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Speaker 2: of a coordinated approach, and investors need to really feel

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Speaker 2: the love. They need to sense that the Chinese government

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Speaker 2: is pulling out all the stops to try and improve

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Speaker 2: the outlook.

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Speaker 1: We've seen some pretty solid gains in Taiwan and also Tokyo,

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Speaker 1: but for the rest of the region it's really not

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Speaker 1: been all that attractive. How much is China holding back

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Speaker 1: the rest of the region.

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Speaker 2: Not too much now, I suspect if we had this

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Speaker 2: discussion eighteen months ago, we probably yes. But if you

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Speaker 2: look at the way the world has moved on, particularly

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Speaker 2: you just look at the performances through twenty twenty three

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Speaker 2: as the year war on, China was becoming less of

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Speaker 2: a factor for the rest of the world, even for

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Speaker 2: the rest of Asia as well. So increasingly investors are

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Speaker 2: isolating China as a special case. So either you're interested

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Speaker 2: in China or you're not. But whatever view you have

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Speaker 2: there doesn't really affect your outlook for the rest of

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Speaker 2: the equity market, which is a good and a bad thing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's interesting in terms of emerging markets because

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Speaker 2: China had been such a huge waiting in emerging markets,

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Speaker 2: but now, of course it's shrunk anyway, because market caps

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Speaker 2: have got so much smaller. So now people have to

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Speaker 2: have two views. They have to have an emerging market

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Speaker 2: view and a China view.

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to get your take on something we were

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Speaker 3: talking about yesterday. Foreign direct investment into China last year

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Speaker 3: increasing by the smallest amount since the early nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 3: Is this a reliable indicator that you want to kind

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Speaker 3: of play in some way? Maybe it's the longer view here,

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Speaker 3: and what the story that it's telling right now is

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Speaker 3: not a good one?

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Speaker 2: It isn't and it probably also tells you quite a

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Speaker 2: lot about some of the political differences that China is

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Speaker 2: encountering with other countries, people putting on restrictions, trade restrictions

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Speaker 2: and other barriers to entry. So that obviously will reflect

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Speaker 2: it to some extent. It will also be because maybe

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Speaker 2: people are not so optimistic on the growth outlook for China.

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Speaker 2: There'll be a number of factors which affect it. That

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Speaker 2: won't necessarily stop people from putting money into China, because

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Speaker 2: you also, there are so many equities listed in China,

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Speaker 2: and there are a number of very positive stories as well,

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Speaker 2: particularly related to AI and certain parts of the tech world.

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Speaker 2: But you need to be a very good stock picker,

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Speaker 2: and some people are not willing to do all that

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Speaker 2: much homework to find those selective stocks. But yes, it's

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Speaker 2: probably a slight negative, but it won't change the views

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Speaker 2: of many people who look at specific sectors of China.

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Speaker 1: If your view is correct, mark that investors are separating

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Speaker 1: China out from the rest of the region. Would Southeast

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Speaker 1: Asia be a good target for investors to look at

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Speaker 1: in that they didn't have a particularly good year last year,

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Speaker 1: while you did see some gains in some of the

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Speaker 1: other markets, particularly in the west and also as mentioned

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Speaker 1: with Tokyo and Taiwan. Or is Southeast Asia really just

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Speaker 1: too small to attract a lot of interest foreign investors?

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Speaker 2: Not too small? But I think I've been in Asia

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Speaker 2: long enough to understand that it's very risky to blanket

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Speaker 2: Southeast Asia as one trade So you really have to

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Speaker 2: go country by country. And there are some encouraging stories.

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Speaker 2: So for example Indonesia, they appear to have got through

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Speaker 2: these elections very smoothly without any trouble. This looks as

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Speaker 2: there's going to be a gentle handover to the next presidency.

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Speaker 2: That is a very much a positive because in the

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Speaker 2: past Indonesia has suffered from messy handovers from one president

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Speaker 2: to the next. So international investors will look at that.

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Speaker 2: It's a huge market and Indonesia certainly has some potential.

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Speaker 2: Now if you look on the other side. Just today

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Speaker 2: we had the Thailand Prime minister trying to intervene in

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Speaker 2: the currency. That's not a good thing. Foreign investors don't

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Speaker 2: like to see politicians getting involved in monetary policy. So

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Speaker 2: you have contrast there in South Asia.

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Speaker 3: So to go to your example of Indonesia and something

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Speaker 3: that you were talking about a moment ago, where it's

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Speaker 3: very much a stock pickers market versus going in and

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Speaker 3: buying an index. Would you apply the same kind of

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Speaker 3: rationale or the same approach when putting money to work

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Speaker 3: in Indonesia?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you probably would have to, because you'd

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Speaker 2: have to try to engage which sectors have already over

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Speaker 2: extended or which ones have got catch up value. And

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Speaker 2: for that you probably need to have quite a lot

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Speaker 2: of local value. So you would certainly need to consult

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Speaker 2: somebody on the ground who's been watching that market very

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Speaker 2: closely to get a real sense. You could, of course

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Speaker 2: take a risk and just go across the whole index,

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Speaker 2: but you will probably find your performance is not as

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Speaker 2: good as it might be if you knew which sectors

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Speaker 2: had the undervalue compared to other sectors.

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Speaker 1: Now let's take a broader look here. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: say that I think it's only a matter of time

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Speaker 1: before you see Hong Kong and China stocks start to

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Speaker 1: rebound because so much has been discounted. So let's say

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Speaker 1: that if that premise is true, will it be hurt

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Speaker 1: by a potential pullback in the US because of inflation

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Speaker 1: fears and also because of valuation levels and the size

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Speaker 1: of the recent rally, or in a sense, will it

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Speaker 1: be helped by that people will actually take money out

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Speaker 1: of US equities and plow into some of these Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong China stocks.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 2: Based on what we've seen in the past year or so,

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Speaker 2: I should think a pullback in US markets actually will

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Speaker 2: be a good thing for several markets around the world,

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Speaker 2: because America seems to suck a tremendous amount of investment

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Speaker 2: capital from other places, So maybe it will start to

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Speaker 2: go back into other parts.

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Speaker 1: Of the world.

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Speaker 3: That would certainly tighten financial conditions maybe a little bit,

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Speaker 3: and the FED might like that. When you look at

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Speaker 3: the path of Fed policy, there's been a fair amount

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Speaker 3: of aggressive betting that we could get as much as

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Speaker 3: maybe one hundred basis points in easing this year. The

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Speaker 3: market seems to be rethinking that in a major way.

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Speaker 3: After those heart readings on inflation in the States last week,

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Speaker 3: both CPI and PPI. What is your view on Fed

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Speaker 3: action this year?

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Speaker 2: Well, the Faith do their for a reason. They try

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Speaker 2: to give the market an indication of where they think

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Speaker 2: interest rates so heading for the rest of the year,

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Speaker 2: and it's very clear their dot plots have a medium

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Speaker 2: target of three rate cuts. Some FED members only see

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Speaker 2: two rate cuts. Well, the market is gradually coming closer

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Speaker 2: to the FED view of where interest rates are going.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the Fed may revise those dot plots when

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Speaker 2: they meet in March or June, but for the time being,

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Speaker 2: the market is at disconnect with where the Fed is

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Speaker 2: telling them they're going. So eventually the market has to

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Speaker 2: get in line.

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Speaker 1: We had David Einhorn on in an extensive interview on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg and he was saying that markets are kind of

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Speaker 1: broken now, that value just doesn't work. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of reasons behind it. We don't have time to go

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Speaker 1: into that, but are there some pockets of areas where

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Speaker 1: you see value. You're not recommending somebody buy it, but

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Speaker 1: you're looking and saying, you know, this has been this

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Speaker 1: has really been driven to an extent in one direction.

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Speaker 2: I think there's always contrarian plays around the world on

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Speaker 2: a general basis, on a regional basis, on a specific basis,

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Speaker 2: and it's probably that is exactly the kind of time

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Speaker 2: when you see something like in the US when the

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Speaker 2: Magnificent Seven stocks dragged so much a part of the

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Speaker 2: investing money going in one direction. That means a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are being left behind. So if you're a

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Speaker 2: contrarian who can take the time to study from the

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Speaker 2: bottom up, you will always find something which has been

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Speaker 2: left behind. And that would apply to any part of

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Speaker 2: the world. I'm sure there are dislocations like that everywhere

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Speaker 2: you look, but you need to do the homework.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm taking notes here from Cranfield. Short the megacap,

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Speaker 1: then go along in the rgon on China stocks. Both

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Speaker 1: have been bombed out too much in one way. Now

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Speaker 1: I'm just joking, folks. He is a Bloomberg Markets Live

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Speaker 1: strategist Mark Cranfield, analyzing the markets but not recommending anything.

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Speaker 1: But it's always good to take a look and a

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Speaker 1: listener programs like this where you get some ideas. Mark,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us, and that is

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Speaker 1: Mark Cranfield with US Live. This is Bloomberg. Our guest

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Speaker 1: is Eric, you lumbering economists covering China and Hong Kong.

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Speaker 1: So we had this adjustment in the five year loan

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Speaker 1: prime rate, Eric, and the market reaction isn't great. This

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Speaker 1: is something that may take a while to play out.

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Speaker 1: What's your initial assessment.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think if you look at both one year

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Speaker 4: five year, actually I think it's a mixed signal this morning.

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Speaker 4: So the five year cut is bigger than expected, and

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Speaker 4: it's the biggest ever I think on record, So clear

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Speaker 4: to signal that the government is worrying about housing market.

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Speaker 4: You know, five years linked to the mortgage rate, so

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Speaker 4: it's clear signal that the housing market is still deepening

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Speaker 4: the declients and the government wants to, you know, step

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Speaker 4: up with more supporting measures. But it's the same time.

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Speaker 4: But you have to remember that last year when PBC

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Speaker 4: cut to the MF in August, actually banks held the

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Speaker 4: five year rate. So so part of the twenty five Yeah,

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Speaker 4: the headline number is big, but part of it probably

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Speaker 4: that's just catch up you know, of last August, so

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Speaker 4: it's not every of the twenty five points then new cut,

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Speaker 4: I would say.

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Speaker 3: So when you get a cut like this. The magnitude

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Speaker 3: obviously is we just said it's greater than expected. Is

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Speaker 3: there a lag period some a period of time where

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Speaker 3: you would really kind of expect to see an impact

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Speaker 3: in the real estate market.

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Speaker 4: Obviously if you look at to what we had at

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Speaker 4: the second half of the last year, lots of measured

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Speaker 4: by the government, you know, trying to relax from purchase

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Speaker 4: down lowering the down payment, even including lower and market

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Speaker 4: rates in big cities. It's I would say it's helping

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Speaker 4: on the margin, but don't really change the big picture, right.

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Speaker 4: We still if you look at the macro housing market

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Speaker 4: data until December, what's the official data we have the latest,

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Speaker 4: the market downto and is still deepening. There's no big

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Speaker 4: sign of the market turning around it anytime soon. So

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Speaker 4: I think that the big problem now is not really

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Speaker 4: the market rates are too high, right, It's not really

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Speaker 4: the big factor. Yeah, it's preventing.

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Speaker 1: One of the trends that we saw of late was

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Speaker 1: buyers being more attracted now to used homes rather than

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Speaker 1: new homes. A couple of reasons. They can get a

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Speaker 1: bigger discount there, and plus they're not buying from the

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Speaker 1: developer then, so I'm just curious whether or not we

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Speaker 1: think that we just really need to see lower prices

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Speaker 1: and once we see and that's not the end of

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Speaker 1: the world. I mean, that's just something that markets do.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you get a repricing and prices come down,

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Speaker 1: people will come back in. That takes time and it

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Speaker 1: means probably lower stock prices for the developers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but the thing is nobody knows when to the

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Speaker 4: bottom right people, if who is buying, they would expect

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Speaker 4: the price to go down even further. So unless they

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Speaker 4: really need a house right now, they can just hold

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Speaker 4: hold off until later. And another factor you mentioned why

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Speaker 4: people are more interesting second home is get the risks

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Speaker 4: that they'll worry. If I buy a new apartment, it's

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Speaker 4: probably well the developer being able to deliver it, right,

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Speaker 4: that's a key risk, So they have to be very careful.

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Speaker 3: What is the one thing that you're going to be

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Speaker 3: looking at in a week ahead. I mean, now we're

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Speaker 3: coming back from the lunar New Year. We've talked about

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Speaker 3: some of the high frequency data that was stronger than expected.

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Speaker 3: Is there a data point that you're keeping your eye

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Speaker 3: on this week?

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Speaker 4: I think next week probably the most important in the

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Speaker 4: channels PMI data, both official and enter tighting PMI. But

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Speaker 4: you know, given the seisonal factors, we would expect PMI

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Speaker 4: to show some weakness. It's understandable. We have a long

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Speaker 4: holiday in February. Although the consumption data looks good holiday spanding,

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Speaker 4: but we actually we had a closer look at the data.

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Speaker 4: It's probably a bit not as strong as the headline

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Speaker 4: suggests because we have one more day d year at holiday.

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Speaker 4: And also if you look at the spanding per capture

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Speaker 4: by every travel alerts, it's actually still quite relatively low,

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Speaker 4: if compared to pre COVID level or even a few

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Speaker 4: years ago. So that means, yeah, more people are traveling,

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Speaker 4: but they're not really you know, spending every person.

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Speaker 1: So you calm, you're measured. But let's do a little

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Speaker 1: swash buckling here, because you're talking about falling prices and

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Speaker 1: it seemingly calls for a catalyst. Okay, so if you're

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Speaker 1: swashed buckling, what's a catalyst? What can be a catalyst?

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Speaker 4: I think people are looking forward in a few weeks.

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Speaker 4: It's the coming National People's Congress, right, the usual, and

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Speaker 4: you're gathering, so we would like to hear what's the

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Speaker 4: plan of the gunment for this year and especially the

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Speaker 4: key focus will be the fiscal budget this year. So

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Speaker 4: are they really, you know, going to have a larger deficit.

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Speaker 4: They're willing to spend more, whatever you want spending, but

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Speaker 4: I think that the key thing and now the consumer's household,

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Speaker 4: you know, corporates, their low confidence, they're not willing to spend.

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Speaker 4: So the only way to proper economy is the gum

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Speaker 4: needs to spend. So that's a key thing I think.

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Speaker 3: I know you're an economist watching, but I'm going to

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Speaker 3: go out on a limb here, because there was a

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Speaker 3: Bank of America survey the one of the most popular

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Speaker 3: trades continues to be being short China. Do you think

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Speaker 3: that's increasingly risky that at some point we're going to

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Speaker 3: get the big bazooka that's going to create a big squeeze.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I cannot come at the market. It's a decision. But

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Speaker 4: I think markets have been quite disappointed over the past

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Speaker 4: year since the reopening. Everybody expecting some bazookap but they

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Speaker 4: never delivered. And I'm cautiously optimistic that the government is

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Speaker 4: willing to, you know, have a big splash bazoo cup,

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Speaker 4: but I think more you know, incremental or whatever you

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Speaker 4: called small steps or some easing. It's still going to

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Speaker 4: going to be seen this year. But if anyone expecting,

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Speaker 4: you know, like for tralling they have done in the past,

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Speaker 4: I don't think that's that's that's like.

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Speaker 1: Okay, final question probably time, if time permits. What what

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Speaker 1: part of the Hong Kong or the Chinese economy is

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Speaker 1: actually working right now? What's looking good?

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Speaker 4: I think some sectors like electrical vehicles right some some

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Speaker 4: high tech sectors, chips, you know, some sectors the government

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Speaker 4: is willing to it's a so called restructuring. They're moving

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Speaker 4: away from property, but they're moving you know, those resources

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Speaker 4: into this that the what they believed would to be

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Speaker 4: the future growth engines for China. But they're growing fast.

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Speaker 4: But we also did some an acid but so far

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Speaker 4: the share of like EV is still readily small so

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Speaker 4: compared to property market. So I think this will still

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Speaker 4: take time for them to grow. But right now we

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Speaker 4: have to you know, it's a period that in the

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Speaker 4: transition period, we have to suffer some pain from the

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Speaker 4: property market down siding.

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Speaker 1: Eric, thanks very much for joining us here in our studios.

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Speaker 1: Eric Q. Bloomberg economist looks at China and Hong Kong.

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Speaker 3: Let's take a look at global fixed income now with

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Speaker 3: our guests too, how Chao had to fixed income for Asia?

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Speaker 3: At Robico joining us from our studios in Singapore. Nice

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Speaker 3: of you to stop by, Thanks for joining us, Thank

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Speaker 3: you for having me. Yeah, we've been talking about the

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Speaker 3: decision and of the big banks in China to cut

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Speaker 3: a long primarate the five year by twenty five basis points.

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Speaker 3: A bit of a surprise. Did it take you by surprise?

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Speaker 5: I mean a little bit in terms of timing, But

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Speaker 5: I think you know, the situation is just, yeah, looking

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Speaker 5: pretty dire, and a lot of the other policies are not,

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Speaker 5: you know, stimulating the market. But that is actually in

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Speaker 5: line with the fact that we expect it's a general

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Speaker 5: econop malae that that is a problem in China and

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Speaker 5: that can't be fixed by pure monetary policy.

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid, I feel about liquidity and whether or not

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Speaker 1: some developers will have to sell assets to create more

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Speaker 1: internal liquidity. Uh and if not, where else could it

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Speaker 1: come from?

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Speaker 5: I mean they can, but I think that it needs

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Speaker 5: to actually come from sales, and that's what's really going

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Speaker 5: to be that's been the difficulty, which is why I

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Speaker 5: think these policies are meant to stimulate demand, and demand

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Speaker 5: is very weak for all the reasons. I think your

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Speaker 5: previous guess has talked about the this this is a

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Speaker 5: this is an adjustment that's going to take several years,

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Speaker 5: and I don't think that the market nor the policy

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Speaker 5: makers can expect that, you know, some changes in policy

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Speaker 5: rates will change that. But however, having said that, it's

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Speaker 5: been near, you know, more than two years of this

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Speaker 5: uh this property allies and hopefully we're hitting some bottom,

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Speaker 5: although I think a rebound, a quick rebound is probably

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Speaker 5: not on the cards at the moment.

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Speaker 3: So if we're near a bottom, maybe they're a little

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Speaker 3: bit more restructuring. I mean, we've had a couple of

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Speaker 3: attempts at restructuring a couple of these developers and that failed.

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Speaker 3: Haircuts I think would be in order. If you're holding

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Speaker 3: credit here, what's the risk and how do you do

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Speaker 3: you hedge that in some way? Like in the CDs market.

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Speaker 5: I think restructuring of the companies that need to be

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Speaker 5: restructuring is already kind of there, so I think it's

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Speaker 5: very hard to hedge that risk, and they're very they're

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Speaker 5: going to be very much case by case. I think

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Speaker 5: the biggest problem within the restructing market within the Chinese

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Speaker 5: is that just there is no presidence and then the

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Speaker 5: fact that the participants you know, are not acting in

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Speaker 5: a concerted manner that actually helps the restructuring process. So

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Speaker 5: it's taking longer, it's probably costing more because there is

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Speaker 5: just no presidence of how to actually deal with you know,

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Speaker 5: these bankruptcy like that we have in more established markets.

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Speaker 1: Some of the markets are not seeing the same stresses

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Speaker 1: as China. Where are you seeing the best value in

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Speaker 1: credit now throughout your coverage area of Asia?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think away from China and actually even

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Speaker 5: within the China ig kind of space, the companies that

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Speaker 5: are surviving and stuff, you know, it's actually not too

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Speaker 5: bad for them, and the fundamentals actually holding up quite

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Speaker 5: quite strong. So our investment grade is actually fine. And

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Speaker 5: away from and I mean India Indonesia partially is you know,

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Speaker 5: they're all actually pretty holding up pretty okay. China seems

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Speaker 5: to have its own dynamics, but it's actually just the

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Speaker 5: Chinese property segment. Right even away from Chinese property, the

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Speaker 5: industrial how your names are actually holding up Okay, financing

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Speaker 5: is available on shore at relatively cheap rates, so netnet

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Speaker 5: things actually away from China. Property for the credit market

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Speaker 5: actually has been pretty good, and spreads are quite tight

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Speaker 5: to reflect that.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting. I am sure you're aware that we have

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Speaker 3: the main it's from the Australian Central Bank meeting, and

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Speaker 3: I think they considered raising rates earlier. I mean, it

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Speaker 3: would seemed to be a pretty hefty debate. And we're

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Speaker 3: talking about now that the possibility that there's going to

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Speaker 3: be far fewer rate cuts in the US than the

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Speaker 3: market had been braced for. Do we have to rethink

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Speaker 3: this narrative that we've been talking about with you know,

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Speaker 3: we've beat the inflation dragon and now we can look

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Speaker 3: forward to rate cuts.

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Speaker 5: I think I was here a month ago, I mean

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Speaker 5: on the TV kind of saying that, you know, I

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Speaker 5: think the market had got far too carried away about

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Speaker 5: the march, you know, rate cuts. I mean I think

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Speaker 5: that the cuts will come. They may just come later,

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Speaker 5: and they will, and I think that's partly going to

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Speaker 5: need as some of the geopolitical issues that are leading

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Speaker 5: to inflatory pressure being a little bit longer and higher

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Speaker 5: than we're expecting but eventually we'll get there, so we

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Speaker 5: probably expect cuts later, but more.

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Speaker 1: I tend to set aside these, you know, more considerations,

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Speaker 1: because when we thought that we might get a cut

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Speaker 1: in March and markets were doing well, and then when

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Speaker 1: we found out that we probably wouldn't get a rate

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Speaker 1: cut in March, markets were still doing pretty well. It

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Speaker 1: seems like there's a balance between investors caring about growth

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Speaker 1: versus caring about interest rates. Where you fit on that spectrum.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so, I mean the rates are they're to support growth, right,

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Speaker 5: So they're actually two of two different size of the argument. Right, So,

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Speaker 5: as long as the economy is staying strong, there's less

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Speaker 5: need to cut, right, And that's actually should be a

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Speaker 5: positive dynamic. And of course one of the other positive

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Speaker 5: dynamics is that the ability to be able to be

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Speaker 5: slow about those cut, not having to rush them because

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Speaker 5: you're dealing with a disaster in the economy, and I

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Speaker 5: think those are actually very constructive for the economy generally.

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Speaker 3: Do we need to rethink BOJ policy? Everybody was thinking

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Speaker 3: that the Bank of Japan had the wind at its back,

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Speaker 3: so to speak, move would be to titan. I mean,

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Speaker 3: do we need to rethink that as well.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think that Japan is quite unique. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I think again we're looking for what happens with the

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Speaker 5: wage inflation. I think if we just take a look

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Speaker 5: at the US as an example, we were really worried

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00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 5: about wage inflation, and actually we've had wage inflation in

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00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 5: the US, and actually it's been quite a good, good,

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00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 5: good backdrop actually, and I think maybe here the lesson

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00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 5: could be learned is actually maybe not to be too

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00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 5: worried and actually higher wages, higher kind of pricing power,

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00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 5: particularly as you might look to the domestic consumption that's

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00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 5: been a driver of growth. That shouldn't worry people too much.

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00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 1: And so in Japan, should we not worry about recession,

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00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 1: you know, technical recession, but not likely stick.

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00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's a technical recession. But I think,

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00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 5: you know, there are other things that are going quite

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00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 5: well for Japan, particularly as the market looks away from

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00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 5: from China, the Japanese market, which has actually not had

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00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 5: much of attention, will get more and more attention, and

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00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,959
Speaker 5: as a diversific trades. So I think there are more

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00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 5: stuff to be going and I think the quicker the

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Speaker 5: Bank of Japan starts to normalize rates the more attention

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00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 5: that is going to get from the international markets.

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Speaker 3: We'll leave it there to Hot Chow. Thank you so

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Speaker 3: much for being with us. Enjoyed the conversation very much

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00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: to how Chow had it fixed income for Asia at Ribko,

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Speaker 3: joining us here on Daybreak Asia. This has been the

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00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news

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Speaker 3: and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg

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