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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast is presented by wind

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Speaker 1: is click on the Action Network link in this episode description. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get things started, all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty five to

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Speaker 3: fifty checkers the college football world stun us.

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Speaker 4: Oh my goodness, he's stop over the football, the lateral turn,

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Speaker 4: the inside, don't you the lay.

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Speaker 5: Table of the field to night.

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Speaker 6: It's not the side of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 6: it's the side of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented by

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Speaker 3: win Bet.

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Speaker 2: This is your Week nine college football betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 2: stuck you.

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Speaker 3: With me as always is Colin Wilson focused, ready to

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Speaker 3: roll on this weekend's car with no Arkansas distraction.

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Speaker 7: No Arkansas on a bye week this week Woo pig Sully.

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Speaker 5: But we get one last weekend before we get a

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Speaker 5: college football playoff ranking and before we get back in

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Speaker 5: our lives.

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Speaker 1: How beautiful is maction?

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Speaker 7: How beautiful is maction.

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Speaker 5: I've got a bunch of shells out there, riding shells

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Speaker 5: that are just waiting for me for maction, like Eastern Michigan,

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Speaker 5: some Toledo. I'm actually really excited, Like I'm excited for

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Speaker 5: week nine, but after this, like it's just a November

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Speaker 5: is just a complete bonanza.

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Speaker 3: Starting tonight, twenty seven straight days with at least one

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Speaker 3: football game on. I'll have my mid season MAC report

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Speaker 3: and college basketball MAC betting preview early next week too.

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Speaker 3: It's exciting times as better as heading into November. All right,

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Speaker 3: before we kick things off, you know, a loaded card

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Speaker 3: this weekend. We'll start with look ahead or look Away

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Speaker 3: as always, so you have a quick programming announcement. If

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Speaker 3: you guys are familiar with our college podcast coverage here

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Speaker 3: at the Action Network, you know that after ball season

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Speaker 3: we typically transition from college football to college basketball here

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Speaker 3: every January. We'll do that again on the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus. But this season we're also getting a head

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Speaker 3: start because starting next week, our friends at three Man Weave,

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Speaker 3: Kym Cubit, Jim Root Matt Cox will be hosting a

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Speaker 3: college basketball betting episode every Wednesday morning here on the

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Speaker 3: BBOC podcast. One of the benefits of having our own feed.

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Speaker 3: These guys are longtime friends of the show. They know

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Speaker 3: college hoops really well, and so we're excited they'll be

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Speaker 3: leading our BBOC college basketball coverage here until we start

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Speaker 3: transitioning over to basketball in December. We'll still have our

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Speaker 3: weekly college football episodes, but now we'll just give you

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Speaker 3: guys an extra college hoops episode as a bonus, So

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Speaker 3: be on the lookout for those episodes every Wednesday morning

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Speaker 3: starting next week.

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Speaker 2: Keep an eye on the app and actuallywork dot com.

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Speaker 3: I'll have obviously all my college basketball plays and content

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Speaker 3: as well. And then, yeah, obviously is always We transitioned

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Speaker 3: to the podcast closer to January to do college basketball,

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Speaker 3: but just zero time right now, so I'm glad we

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Speaker 3: have those guys on board to give the college basketball

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Speaker 3: diehard some podcast content in the interim. All right, let's

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Speaker 3: get things started with we'll do this really quick look

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Speaker 3: ahead and look away. Say, it's not a really good

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Speaker 3: week for situational spots in regards to looking ahead to next.

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Speaker 4: Week hangovers and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it time

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Speaker 4: to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 3: We have three spots here that I've circled, and for

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Speaker 3: those unfamiliar, we look at next week slate and we determine. Okay,

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Speaker 3: so the team maybe gonna get looking ahead of them,

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Speaker 3: maybe not want to show much the puller starters a

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Speaker 3: little sooner. Three spots here. Colorado has just been woeful,

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Speaker 3: especially on offense. I mean, Lewis has been dreadful. The

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Speaker 3: offensive line has been the worst part.

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Speaker 2: Of that team.

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Speaker 3: They can't get any running game going at all, and

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Speaker 3: as a result, their passing game is it just can't

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Speaker 3: pick up the slack.

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Speaker 2: Teams are just loading the box.

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Speaker 3: They are coming off a bad loss at cal Or

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Speaker 3: they only had about one hundred total yards. They go

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Speaker 3: to Oregon at win that Oregon is a twenty three

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Speaker 3: and a half point favorite over under forty nine. Oregon

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Speaker 3: does have Washington on deck, important game in the PAC

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Speaker 3: twelve North Division.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure how much. Oregon is looking ahead here,

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Speaker 2: but they could get caught.

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Speaker 3: It's looked we are pretty sandwichee can get that sandwich

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Speaker 3: vocal spot After that emotional win over UCLA.

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Speaker 2: With Washington on deck.

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Speaker 1: We sure have a lot of sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches.

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Speaker 3: I just don't know if Colorado's offensive line can hang

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Speaker 3: in there here. Can they get enough stops? I mean,

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Speaker 3: their defense is fairly solid, their offens just puts them

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Speaker 3: in such bad spots. Bad news is though that Nate

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Speaker 3: Landman is playing at an All American level at linebacker,

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Speaker 3: will be out.

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Speaker 2: For this game.

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Speaker 3: The defensive line is pretty good. If a couple of

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Speaker 3: good corners, can Colorado stay within this number?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that's a really good question, because not

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Speaker 5: only is there this whole we just finished off Ucla,

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Speaker 5: we got Washington on deck, we can see the light

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Speaker 5: at the end of the tunnel for the Pactroal Championship,

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Speaker 5: and maybe we're gonna be ranked pretty high in the

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Speaker 5: College Football Playoff rankings next week.

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Speaker 7: So there's a lot of things that organ is not

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Speaker 7: looking at.

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Speaker 5: They're not looking at Colorado, and you know you mentioned

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Speaker 5: Nate Lanman not being there. You know, the spread is

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Speaker 5: in play, and I think that's one thing about it.

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Speaker 5: It's going to be interesting to see if Oregon uses

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Speaker 5: this as a game to at Ty Thompson and Jay

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Speaker 5: Butterfield some reps out there in the second half, if

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Speaker 5: they happened to get some sort of lead. But you know,

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Speaker 5: there's another there's a trend. We're not a trend podcast.

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Speaker 5: We don't like trends. But Mario christ Wall at home

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Speaker 5: and autsin with double digit spread has not been good.

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Speaker 5: I think he's covered like once in the last couple

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Speaker 5: of years. I'm not saying it back Colorado. I think

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Speaker 5: more of an organ first half. When you know, I

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Speaker 5: think there should be a low scoring total in the

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Speaker 5: first half. But at the same time, I think taking

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Speaker 5: Oregon in the first half might be a good look here.

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Speaker 5: Without Colorado and their star linebacker, Colorado faced a heavy

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Speaker 5: rush against Minnesota earlier this season. I think that's really

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Speaker 5: where the handicap is because we know Orgon's going to

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Speaker 5: run the ball and what they want to do with

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Speaker 5: Anthony Brown. They allowed five point four yards per attempt

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Speaker 5: and eight runs of twelve yards or more. So Minnesota

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Speaker 5: was just absolutely explosive on the ground and that's when

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Speaker 5: Colorado had their linebacker, so now they don't have them.

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Speaker 5: I think an Oregon first half bet maybe there, but

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Speaker 5: who knows what they do in the second half. If

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Speaker 5: they get any kind of lead with their two freshman quarterback,

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Speaker 5: they might w havever Ready.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they're there slight value in Colorado here.

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Speaker 3: I thought about them, especially if I can get over

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Speaker 3: twenty four. But they're just watching that offense. There's not

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Speaker 3: much to like. Chenault will come back from suspension this week,

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Speaker 3: so maybe that helps. But the quarterback play has just

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Speaker 3: been so poor and maybe Oregon wants to run it up.

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Speaker 3: Maybe they're thinking on the flip side, like for college

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Speaker 3: football playoff ranking. Maybe they need margin and they still

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Speaker 3: have hope. So let's move on to another game. Here,

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Speaker 3: you Mass, your hu Mass boys let you down last week.

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Speaker 3: They travel to Liberty. Liberty has the Hugh Freeze ball

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Speaker 3: on deck against Ole Miss. Liberty is laying thirty six

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Speaker 3: here over under fifty eight. Do you have the stomach

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Speaker 3: to back the minimum?

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Speaker 7: Again, I haven't put a bed in on the app yet.

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Speaker 7: I mean I was quick to get in there.

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Speaker 3: Man.

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Speaker 2: That sounds ominous. That sounds ominous.

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Speaker 5: I know, I was quick to get that Florida. You

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Speaker 5: know it's crazy you messages the thirty five point underdogs

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Speaker 5: to Florida State. Now they're thirty six point underdogs to Liberty.

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Speaker 5: Checking my power rankings, there's really not a big difference

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Speaker 5: between Liberty and FSU. You know, these teams are outside

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Speaker 5: the top one hundred and tempo and the market kind

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Speaker 5: of sits around fifty seven and a half. So for

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Speaker 5: Liberty to cover this spread, they've got to go perfect

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Speaker 5: and almost all their drives. You know, Tyler Lytle was

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Speaker 5: the starting quarterback coming into the season for UMass.

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Speaker 7: He might return here.

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Speaker 5: He was participating in warm ups against FSU, but he

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Speaker 5: didn't play. Walt Bell's comments is what has what has

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Speaker 5: kept a UMass bet coming through the pipe. He said,

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Speaker 5: we spent an ungodly amount of time preparing for the

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Speaker 5: counterplay from Florida State. They ran fifty of their sixty

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Speaker 5: Russian attempts. They ran counter, We got blocked, we didn't tackle,

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Speaker 5: We couldn't stop anything.

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Speaker 7: Now when the head coach comes.

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Speaker 5: Out and says, we spent all of our time on

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Speaker 5: the counter and they ran at fifty to sixty like

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Speaker 5: they game planned the hell out of it, Like wall

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Speaker 5: Bell did a good job to do with the prep.

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Speaker 7: They just didn't execute. So I'm not really sure how

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Speaker 7: he can go around.

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Speaker 5: A bet on u Mass. Maybe they show up a

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Speaker 5: second week in a row. But you have to ask,

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Speaker 5: how did you LM beat Liberty?

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Speaker 7: Right?

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Speaker 5: I mean it's a really good question. I mean that

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Speaker 5: kind of just slipped through the box scores and nobody

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Speaker 5: really talked about it. Seven percent in passing downs, ULM

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Speaker 5: had seven passes over fifteen yards.

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Speaker 7: They had three.

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Speaker 5: Interceptions against Malik Willis, Like I really went quiet. Nobody

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Speaker 5: really talked about that. Last week, North Texas easily covered

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Speaker 5: twenty one by dominating passing downs on defense and eight

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Speaker 5: tackles for loss combined on fifty yards. Even ULM had

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Speaker 5: six tackles for loss for thirty four yards. You know,

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Speaker 5: the offensive line is not what it used to be

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Speaker 5: last year for Liberty. They're averaging fifty yards less and running.

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Speaker 5: They've already allowed as many sacks as they did last year.

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Speaker 5: Some serious offensive line problems they're going on for the Flames.

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Speaker 5: I should be playing UMass. This is not Florida State's

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Speaker 5: offensive line. But you know, I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

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Speaker 3: Looks like ULM found our quarterback of the future and

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Speaker 3: this kid Chandler Rodgers freshman who pull off that upset

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Speaker 3: and then went nuts last week again South Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Last look at her look away game UTAP.

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Speaker 8: We're talking Minor Nation.

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Speaker 2: Out in the West tex since Town of l past.

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Speaker 3: So picks up the surprise Minor Nation, the covering machine

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Speaker 3: known as Minor Nation at FAU Fau's.

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Speaker 2: Eleven and a half foid favorite over under forty eight.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if UTEP's really looking ahead to the

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Speaker 3: super Bowl the game of the year next week against

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Speaker 3: uts Sich. We had to get some UTAP and meet

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Speaker 3: meat talk in no poss anything year in UTEP, fa

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Speaker 3: Ute's defense been surprisingly good.

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Speaker 7: Yeah. The one thing that keeps getting talked.

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Speaker 5: About when you dive into any UTEP information on this

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Speaker 5: game is that Minor Nation is zero to twenty five

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Speaker 5: and one all time playing in the Eastern time zone.

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Speaker 5: They've never won a game in the Eastern time zone.

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Speaker 5: Why don't they get an FCS school like on the

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Speaker 5: schedule from the Eastern time zone. But I mean this

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Speaker 5: can be a defensive grudge match. Both defenses top ten

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Speaker 5: and finishing drives. UTEP tempo is one hundred and twenty third.

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Speaker 5: I mean one aspect of the UTEP offense is at

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Speaker 5: their top thirty in passing success rate until they decide

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Speaker 5: to pass their second and pass epa. But FAU is

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Speaker 5: eighth and coverage so when UTEP does decide to step

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Speaker 5: back and throw, been really good.

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Speaker 7: At stopping that.

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Speaker 5: So fau's offense is top thirty and success rate, but

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Speaker 5: they're ninety fourth.

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Speaker 7: And havoc allowed.

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Speaker 5: And I think that's really where the handicap comes in

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Speaker 5: ninety fourth and havoc allowed. They're very sloppy with the ball,

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Speaker 5: they let defenders get into the backfield, and UTEP's defense

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Speaker 5: is third and havoc. So I love the under in

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Speaker 5: this game, especially with FAU. Pass blocking is outside the

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Speaker 5: top one hundred and UTEP is one hundred and fourteenth

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Speaker 5: and offensive finishing drives. There's just a lot of problems

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Speaker 5: here for FAU and the pressure they're going to see

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Speaker 5: from UTEP. UTEP has a lot of problems when they

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Speaker 5: get into scoring positions. So I think the under is

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Speaker 5: the best play. Although forty eight is a key number,

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Speaker 5: I can see the market at forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 5: I would try to look for that forty eight quick

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Speaker 5: looker at O look.

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Speaker 2: Away this week.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to the marquee matchups of the week.

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Speaker 8: There, it's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check

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Speaker 8: out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up betting for

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Speaker 8: week nine.

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Speaker 2: All right, we got some good ones here.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with a matchup of undefeated Big Ten teams

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Speaker 3: from the state of Michigan, meeting for the first time

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Speaker 3: as Top ten teams since the sixties. Talking about Michigan

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Speaker 3: and Boatdog Jim heading two Michigan State.

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Speaker 8: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers, avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 4: Let's check in with Bodog Jim.

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Speaker 3: Michigan State four and a half point home underdog over

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Speaker 3: under fifty and.

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Speaker 2: A half at win Bet.

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Speaker 3: When I look at both these teams, I still don't

268
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Speaker 3: really have a great feel for either one of them.

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Speaker 3: They really haven't played a murderers row of opponents. They

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Speaker 3: both played Nebraska and both probably should have lost but won.

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Speaker 3: I think this really comes down to when you look

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Speaker 3: at this handicap, it's okay. Michigan State obviously has really

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Speaker 3: relied on Kenneth Walker, star running back, made a name

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Speaker 3: for himself this year year and you know, getting pro's attention,

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Speaker 3: Heisman talk, and then Michigan with Haskins and Korum is

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Speaker 3: pretty much all run all the time. Which defense is

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Speaker 3: better equipped to slow down the other's rushing attack because

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Speaker 3: I think that ultimately will decide this game Michigan playing.

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Speaker 3: They're just playing very conservative, letting their defense and special teams,

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Speaker 3: which have been excellent, kind of carry the weight. They're

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Speaker 3: not making mistakes. What say you here in a Top

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Speaker 3: ten matchup of Michigan Big ten teams.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the under was the first thing. I had one

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Speaker 5: of the first plays of the week when the numbers

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Speaker 5: came out, But that was fifty two and a half.

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Speaker 5: We're down to fifty one, so you know, we're that's

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Speaker 5: the key number, one of the biggest key numbers of

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Speaker 5: college football. So this is a game that I've kind

289
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Speaker 5: of battled with, you know, exactly on the side who

290
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Speaker 5: you should take, because you look at the resumes of

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Speaker 5: who they've played, and it's like, well, it's not really

292
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Speaker 5: that impressive of a slate games that they have played,

293
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Speaker 5: but they do have three common opponents, and I think

294
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Speaker 5: if you take a deep dive into those three common

295
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 5: opponents in the box scores, you can find an answer

296
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Speaker 5: about who's going to win this game. So I think

297
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Speaker 5: you're right. The question is is how did each team

298
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Speaker 5: get here undefeated? Is it applicable to the handicap Michigan

299
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,360
Speaker 5: run base. They're not asking Kaid McNamara to do too much,

300
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 5: you know, it's been Assan Haskins. Blake Korn just put

301
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,760
Speaker 5: up unbelievable numbers from the FBS as far as PFF

302
00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 5: grading goes on running backs in the FBS, Michigan State

303
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 5: sixty six, then defensive rushing success rate ninety first and

304
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Speaker 5: stuff rates. So I can see, if you like Michigan

305
00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,120
Speaker 5: why you would play that angle. The rule Greens are

306
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 5: going to be able to run their slow tempo. But

307
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Speaker 5: when you look over at mel Tucker, who's been the

308
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Speaker 5: transfer portal whisper, he lands Kenneth Walker to do the

309
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Speaker 5: rushing attack.

310
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Speaker 7: And the difference is between these two.

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Speaker 5: Offenses, which I'm about to spell out, Michigan State has

312
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Speaker 5: an explosive element that Michigan does not have whatsoever. Jalen Naylor,

313
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Speaker 5: Jaden Reid outstanding numbers on deep balls Peyton Thorn three

314
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,520
Speaker 5: times as many big time throws as turnover worthy plays.

315
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Speaker 5: Finishing drives on offense is a big issue with both squads.

316
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Speaker 5: That's why I took the under at the beginning of

317
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Speaker 5: the week. Both of these teams defenses have massive superior

318
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Speaker 5: numbers to the offenses when it comes to scoring position.

319
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Speaker 5: But let's get back to the handicap where I think

320
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Speaker 5: it's really important. These teams have played Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern.

321
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Speaker 5: Rutgers big offensive success rate and standardowns against Michigan seventeen

322
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Speaker 5: percent higher than national average Rutgers did. Michigan State nearly

323
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,720
Speaker 5: doubled Rutgers and overall yards per play and what was

324
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Speaker 5: an explosive play bonanza, So Michigan State gets the nod.

325
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Speaker 5: There now Nebraska, both teams with a three point win,

326
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Speaker 5: both teams with a similar defensive success rate. The difference

327
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Speaker 5: was Michigan State allowed just one explosive drive against Nebraska.

328
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Speaker 5: Michigan allowed three explosive drives against Nebraska, so another chuck

329
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Speaker 5: mark for Michigan State. Last one Northwestern, the Spartans nearly

330
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Speaker 5: doubled the Wildcats and overall yards per play. They didn't

331
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Speaker 5: allow a single explosive drive. The Michigan defense did three

332
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Speaker 5: common opponents, three green check marks for Michigan State. I

333
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Speaker 5: do think this is a defensive battle. We're looking at

334
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Speaker 5: forty percent rain fifteen mile an hour wins. Michigan State

335
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Speaker 5: has the more explosive offense. They have the far better

336
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Speaker 5: box scores against the three common opponents. I've already taken

337
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Speaker 5: the under. If you're gonna take it, I would suggest

338
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 5: getting fifty one. If you can do the first half,

339
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Speaker 5: I'd suggest twenty four and a half.

340
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 7: But listen, I.

341
00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 5: Can see that the market is all over Michigan State.

342
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 5: I can see all the tickets, all the money on

343
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Speaker 5: Michigan State. I agree with them because in the three

344
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 5: common opponents, they won all three box scores.

345
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Speaker 7: In comparison to Michigan.

346
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Speaker 3: Michigan's run defense also hasn't been great. Yeah, they have

347
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 3: some good players on defense, but they haven't been elite.

348
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 3: I mean that Rutgers game where they went read option.

349
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 3: They really gave Michigan trouble in the second half. But

350
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 3: I'm curious to say if Michigan the wildcardier could be

351
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,600
Speaker 3: do they how often and how and in what fashion

352
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,320
Speaker 3: do they use JJ McCarthy. Does he come in as

353
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 3: a wild card in this game and attempts some downfield

354
00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,080
Speaker 3: throws have some tricoration? Do they do they run it?

355
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see if they use him. But yeah,

356
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 3: I agree on the under here. I think the under

357
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:06,640
Speaker 3: is to play. I like the first half under even

358
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 3: better because if this game gets out of hand one

359
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 3: way or the other, I don't really want, you know,

360
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,359
Speaker 3: Michigan State throwing from behind can have a little more success,

361
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 3: but I don't really want Michigan having to throw play

362
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: from behind and throw. We haven't seen them do that,

363
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,439
Speaker 3: and it could end in some turnovers and some short

364
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 3: fields and they kind of get out of who they

365
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 3: are if they're you know, say down ten to fourteen.

366
00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,560
Speaker 2: So I like the game script in the first half

367
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 2: of the under the ten unders.

368
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to let's just stick and

369
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 3: let's just get this big ten over the left. Let's

370
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,120
Speaker 3: look at Iowa at Wisconsin.

371
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:45,520
Speaker 2: We said last I said a couple of weeks.

372
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 3: Ago on Twitter, people went nuts on me and that

373
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 3: Wisconsin might be favored over the number two team in

374
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 3: the country. It looks like that would have been the case,

375
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 3: and Wisconsin's a three and a half point favorite over Iowa.

376
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:57,400
Speaker 3: This is no longer in Iowa podcast, by the way,

377
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 3: over under thirty six and a half at win bet.

378
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 3: Now everyone was laughing at my Wisconsin to win the

379
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,880
Speaker 3: division bet? How's that looking? Now? Maybe win this game

380
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 3: and they're in pretty good shape. I think Wisconsin wins

381
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,919
Speaker 3: this game. Can I lay three and a half?

382
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:12,520
Speaker 2: No?

383
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 3: I can't. I'm gonna have to find a way to

384
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 3: play money line. Throw them in a money line parlay

385
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 3: and around Robin. I mean, three and a half points

386
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 3: of this game is like twenty at three, and it

387
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,920
Speaker 3: should be. It should be Wisconsin minus three and a

388
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:26,800
Speaker 3: half money line minus five hundred.

389
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 2: Like that's how much three and a half is. Look,

390
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,399
Speaker 2: I was banged up at the corner spot. Who cares?

391
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 3: Wisconsin can't throw it doesn't matter. Wisconsa can't throw it

392
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: on anybody. Look look what Army did. Look do you

393
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 3: see what Army did against Lake Farce the week before

394
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 3: against Wisconsin, Scotson couldn't complete a four pass against them,

395
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:43,199
Speaker 3: So we know that merch. I mean you look at

396
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 3: any of his advanced metrics. He's been one of the

397
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,680
Speaker 3: worst quarterbacks in the country missus wide open throws all

398
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 3: the time, even against the banged ub iosecondary, they're not

399
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:55,159
Speaker 3: gonna throw. But Wisconsin has found a running game, and

400
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,920
Speaker 3: I think that is what's gonna be the difference here.

401
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 3: This kid Raylen out for Wisconsin. I mean, Lucy's r

402
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 3: ran well last game. But Braylen Allen, I mean the freshman.

403
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 3: I don't know what they were waiting for with this kid,

404
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 3: but he had against Purdue twelve carries one hundred and

405
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 3: forty yards as touchdowns.

406
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 7: There's a big difference.

407
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 5: Malucy likes to likes to find defenders to run them over.

408
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 5: But but Braylen Allen will like he's actually got some

409
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 5: scat in him. He's actually got some Missah.

410
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 3: It's a good one too. It's a good one too.

411
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 3: Como against Army had sixteen carries for one hundred and

412
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 3: eight yards. Army is really good against the run. Illinois

413
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 3: eighteen carries for one hundred and thirty one yards. This

414
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 3: kid is eating so I think ultimately that'll be the difference.

415
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna find a way to play with scotser.

416
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 3: But I also played under thirty seven. The only way

417
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 3: I see this game going over and this could happen.

418
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 3: Is with defensive or special teams touchdowns Yep, certainly in

419
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 3: the mix. I mean you gotta pick sixes. I think

420
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 3: that I was secondary being out, Like you know, Riley

421
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 3: Moss not playing actually helps the under because the Wisconsin

422
00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 3: can't throw and there's just less risk of a six

423
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:01,360
Speaker 3: with what's.

424
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 2: Not in there.

425
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,640
Speaker 6: It's crazy as that sounds, but when you know these

426
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 6: two offenses are really poor and these two defenses are

427
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,640
Speaker 6: really good, these two teams are very conservative.

428
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 3: They played very slow. They're gonna rely on their defenses.

429
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 3: You might see punts in this game from the thirty five,

430
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,399
Speaker 3: like that's how conservative I expect these two teams to play.

431
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 3: You might even see a team kneel it to punt it.

432
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 3: You might think that's crazy, but I would did that

433
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 3: against Penn State. Take knees the punt. I always joke

434
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 3: about that on Twitter. You could see that in this game.

435
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 3: So this has all the makings. If there's no turnovers,

436
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 3: and I think both teams are gonna try to be

437
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 3: very conservative and you can't run on Wisconsin if there's

438
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,479
Speaker 3: no no fluky turnovers and turnovers can help the under too.

439
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 3: Say there's turnovers in the red zone, or this game

440
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 3: could honestly end six to three.

441
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 2: I like the under. I think Wisconsin wins.

442
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 5: This might be on a TV box right next to

443
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 5: Cincinnati two lane, which could have like one hundred points

444
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 5: scored in it, So it's gonna be a drag of

445
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 5: a watch. But now I completely agree with your handicap.

446
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 5: It's impossible to find a single offensive advantage with either

447
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 5: of these teams. Both offenses outside the top one hundred

448
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 5: and finishing drives, both offenses outside the top one hundred

449
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 5: and tempo. Iowa is second to last an offense big

450
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,919
Speaker 5: play percentage, Wisconsin is dead last and passing EPA.

451
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 7: It's gross.

452
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 5: I projected my total at thirty five and a half,

453
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 5: and I think people will say, well, Colin, where do

454
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 5: you get your totals from?

455
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 7: Mine?

456
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 5: Are a very large calculation of yards per play differential

457
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 5: I had in finishing drives. There's a lot of things

458
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 5: that happen in the red zone that I kind of

459
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 5: integrate into the numbers that came out to thirty five

460
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:33,640
Speaker 5: and a half.

461
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 7: I was like, that is extremely low because.

462
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: I'm at thirty four.

463
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 5: It's what you're scared of is a defensive td like

464
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 5: like stuck. He said, with Riley Moss being out, that

465
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 5: was really kind of a breaker for Iowa because not

466
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 5: only have they been living on a steady diet of

467
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 5: turnovers and touchdowns. You know, with Riley Moss out, Perdue

468
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 5: was able to go crazy. David Bell was able to

469
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 5: just destroy Iowa. And you know that Wisconsin held Bell

470
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 5: down to just thirty three yards and targets. Well, Wisconsin

471
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 5: has a legitimate secondary. We mentioned Caesar Williams. You know,

472
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 5: now the Badgers have to focus on just defending one

473
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 5: guy tight end, Samuel Poro.

474
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 7: That's it in the run, that's in the past game.

475
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 7: So I can't see how.

476
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 5: Iowa gets many points up on the board whatsoever. Wisconsin's

477
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 5: going to have success on the ground. We mentioned Chez Malushi,

478
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 5: brayln Allen, Iowa's seventy third defensive stuff. Right, They're not

479
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 5: getting behind the line of scrimmage. We talked about this

480
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 5: in the summer, like they have a defensive line. I

481
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 5: don't think anybody weighs over two hundred.

482
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 7: And ninety pounds.

483
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 5: That is not a good look against the Wisconsin's offensive line.

484
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 5: And when you look at Wisconsin, if they have an

485
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 5: advantage on you. And here's the thing that I laugh about.

486
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 5: When they have an advantage on you and they find

487
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 5: out what it is, they're just going to keep doing it.

488
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 5: They attempted only three passes in the second half against

489
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 5: Purdue with the ground game had success, and Paul Chris said,

490
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 5: forget it. You're not throwing ever again, Graham Mertz, we

491
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 5: are going to hand the ball off and we don't

492
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 5: care if they know it. And I think that's what's

493
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 5: going to happen here. So when you were stuck, is

494
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 5: like kidding about punting from the thirty five. I'm not

495
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 5: He's not, And I'm not kidding about Wisconsin. They might

496
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 5: run every single there might not be like more than

497
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 5: eight passing attempts. It could be like an army type approach.

498
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 5: Well army before last week. So you know, I always

499
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 5: had wins over Penn State, Maryland, Iowa State, Indiana because

500
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 5: of turnovers. That's dried up just one from Purdue. So

501
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 5: I always finally come back down to earth. I'll take Wisconsin.

502
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 5: I don't want the hook.

503
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 7: I agree with you.

504
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 5: You can guarantee you and I are gonna be fighting

505
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 5: to see who leads it off in the money line

506
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 5: round Robin, I prefer to buy the hook back to three.

507
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 5: As for the total, with what Stuck said about you

508
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 5: know under thirty seven, thirty seven is the last bypoint

509
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 5: there is. I'm looking at the board. There is a

510
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 5: thirty seven out there. There's also a short book that's

511
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 5: also got this down to thirty six. Thirty seven is

512
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 5: the last bypoint. It's a key number, twenty seventeen, right,

513
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 5: So after that, I wouldn't pay attention to whatsoever. So

514
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 5: I like Wisconsin. I like the under thirty seven. This

515
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 5: thing wants to get down to thirty five.

516
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 7: I don't know. Maybe maybe I'll start looking at the

517
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 7: over just for shits and grins.

518
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: I'll do that.

519
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,640
Speaker 3: Even it's just gonna be like Wisconsin Army. I think

520
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,719
Speaker 3: even Wisconsin Army had a defensive touchdown. It was a

521
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 3: one yard touchdown drive because of stripsack, and it had

522
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 3: a garbage time touchdown in the final seconds, and it's

523
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 3: still went under.

524
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to a game that should

525
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 2: have some scoring.

526
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I love watching a good under, but most

527
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 3: people will be a little more excited for Georgia and Florida,

528
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: the world's largest outdoor outdoor cocktail party.

529
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:24,959
Speaker 7: I can't say that anymore.

530
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 5: Even that's been canceled. You can't even talk about drinking

531
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 5: out loud anymore.

532
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: The world's largest cocktail party. We'll still call it that. Here.

533
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 2: Both team's coming off of bye I think they usually do.

534
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: For this game.

535
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 3: Georgia number one team in the country, fourteen and a

536
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 3: half point favorites over under fifty one at win bet.

537
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 3: So when I look at this game, I took some

538
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: Florida plus fourteen and a half. It's funny. I think

539
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 3: I've had Georgia. Georgia is the best team in the country.

540
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: I had to get to the playoffs win the national title.

541
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 3: But I find myself fading them all the time, and

542
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: that's not abnormal for me. Against the number one team

543
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 3: in the country, I think is just normally over inflated

544
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 3: in the market. You're paying attacks for them. But there's

545
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 3: a few advantages here that I like for Florida and

546
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 3: a few things that worry me about Florida. Ultimately, I

547
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 3: wouldn't play this under fourteen. Once I got over fourteen.

548
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 3: There was enough here, especially when you add in the

549
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 3: back door possibility that I took Florida. So when you

550
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 3: look at this Georgia defense, it is elite by any stretch.

551
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 3: I mean you look at success rate, it's like thirty percent.

552
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 3: Their EPA to play historically good, but there's probably some

553
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 3: regression coming here. They're giving up like one point two

554
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 3: points per opportunity. That's like the most unsustainable stat I've

555
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: ever seen in my life. And they haven't really played

556
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: a murderers or of offenses. Have they played one capable

557
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: downfield basket attack yet? No, So they just played running

558
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 3: teams primarily and then bad teams which they can stop.

559
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 3: Georgia is not a very complex defense. It is like

560
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 3: we're gonna line up and we're going to be very

561
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 3: disciplined and we have very good players across the board

562
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 3: and you're not gonna be able to do anything, and

563
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 3: especially in the run game, and you know they have

564
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: Jordan Davis in the middle just clogs everything up. That

565
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 3: they are so their linebackers are so fast they get

566
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 3: to everything on the outside. It's an elite defense, but

567
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 3: they haven't seen an offense like this. And what can

568
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 3: give them trouble quarterback runs, things that are off script,

569
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 3: bunch formations, misdirection, trick plays, all the things that Dan Mullen.

570
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 3: I think, whatever you want to think about him, that

571
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 3: man could go up with a good offensive script. Just

572
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 3: look at last year when he absolutely roasted this Georgia defense.

573
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 3: By he understands all the pattern matching that Kirby Smart

574
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 3: does as well as anyone in the country. He went

575
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: out there and they roasted Georgia's defense from I think

576
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 3: they were like fourteen point. They were down fourteen nothing

577
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 3: in that game, maybe twenty one nothing and didn't have

578
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 3: Kyle Pitts, by the way, I had Florida in that game.

579
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 3: You got cond Cushion in the first first drive, and

580
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna get Anthony Richardson for majority of

581
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 3: this game. I think this secret has been let out.

582
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 3: One of their players said it like he's our quarterback.

583
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 3: I think you'll see m Ray Jones for a driver too,

584
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 3: But that's harder to prepare for. He's do you need

585
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: to throw that downfit? You can't just run downhill. You

586
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 3: can't just hand it off against the Georgia team. You

587
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 3: need to have designed quarterback runs. I bet you're gonna

588
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 3: see some option here. You're gonna see some misdirections and reverses,

589
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: some trick plays. You're gonna see bunch formations, trips, everything,

590
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 3: You're the entire This is Florida season now.

591
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 2: So the Super Bowl.

592
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 3: They have three losses now, so I think Mullen will

593
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,400
Speaker 3: be able to get this offense to seventeen to twenty points,

594
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: which is an and I wouldn't be surprised they got

595
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 3: the twenty four to twenty seven now. I think George

596
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 3: is gonna have success scoring as well. Florida's defense that

597
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 3: they had an awful game against Elsie. I don't know

598
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 3: how you let LG run all over him, just running

599
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: counters all day, but every other game the season, Florida's

600
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 3: held there upon under their season average yards per carry,

601
00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: under their points, under the yards.

602
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: I think you get a better effort here. But Georgia's

603
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 2: offense will have success. We see JT.

604
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: Daniels, will we not? I think we're gonna see both.

605
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 3: Maybe that hurts Georgia if J. T. Daniels is a

606
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 3: little rusty. I think Florida will have enough success here

607
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 3: to cover this number. Then get to seventeen to twenty

608
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 3: and hey, look if George's up twenty one late, good

609
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: chance Florida can get in the back door here, the

610
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 3: Richardson factor, Dan Owen's game plan, the fact that Georgia

611
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 3: really hasn't seen a passing attack, and look Richardson. The

612
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 3: one thing I like about richards not only his legs,

613
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 3: He's just an He's electric. He's going to tack downfield,

614
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 3: which is what you you need to test this.

615
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 2: Georgia second out of it. You need to hit explosive plays.

616
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 3: You're not going to sustain drives four to five yards

617
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: down the field all at once. Richardson thirty six percent

618
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 3: of his passes have gone over twenty yards downfield. That

619
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 3: leads the nation. Emory Jones eleven dead last in the SEC.

620
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 2: Gimme Mowen. Give me Florida in their Super Bowl here.

621
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: Weird things happen in this game wouldn't shock me if Florida,

622
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 3: who by the way, was a two touchdown underdog to

623
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 3: Alabama when everyone thought Alabama was the best team in

624
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: the country at home, and Florida outplayed them and should

625
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 3: have won that game.

626
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: Give me the Gators chomp jump.

627
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 5: The one thing that I did know about that Florida

628
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 5: Alabama game is that Florida was going to be able

629
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 5: to apply a lot of pass rush pressure. You talk

630
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 5: about Florida is going to do on offense, You're right,

631
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 5: You're going to see a lot of bunch formation. You're

632
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 5: going to see a lot of reverse, a lot of

633
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 5: prestat motion. Move the pocket. You do not want to

634
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 5: go straight at Jordan Davis there lined up with the

635
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 5: nose tackle. The guy is literally the size of a house.

636
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 5: That's a tough handicap. When you look at Georgia's numbers

637
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 5: on defense, what is Florida going to do against a

638
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 5: team that is tops in the nation and tackling coverage,

639
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 5: finishing drives And you're right, there's nothing complex about They

640
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 5: just line up and they go after you. George is

641
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 5: now number one in strength of record, game control average,

642
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 5: win probability rank. And really it kind of goes back

643
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 5: to the teams that they've played. They haven't really played

644
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 5: anybody that's been able to throw downfield. They've allowed two

645
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 5: explosive drives and eighty three opponent attempts. That's a crazy number.

646
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 5: None of those teams have a vertical passing game like

647
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 5: Florida does. The most vertical offense Georgia has played is Auburn.

648
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: And bo Nicks.

649
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 7: That's it. There's nobody else on the schedule.

650
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: Bo Nicks season the full effect, and.

651
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 5: If you consider that a vertical passing game is dangerous,

652
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 5: then you know I got things to sell you. But

653
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 5: Auburn generated a success rate above national average on passing downs.

654
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 5: They had six passes over twenty yards. That makes me

655
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 5: think that Anthony Richardson, even though he has moments of

656
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 5: inaccuracy downfield, he's going to be able to burn a

657
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 5: little bit of the secondary here, a young secondary that

658
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 5: really hasn't been tested.

659
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 7: I expect Dan Mullen two weeks. I'll have all kinds

660
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 7: of packages.

661
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 5: And the thing we talk about Emery Jones and Anthony Richardson,

662
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 5: it's not a different offense. They actually run the exact

663
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 5: same offense. It's just one's a little bit more explosive

664
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 5: and one guy is a lot bigger.

665
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 7: You're gonna see move, pocket screens, play action, anything.

666
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 5: To get around Jordan Davis and the rest of the

667
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 5: front seven on the other side of the ball. I mean,

668
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 5: Todd Grantham could get fired after this game. The Gators

669
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 5: are allowing five yards per play in standard downs. They

670
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 5: have zero work behind the line of scrimmage. That's the

671
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 5: thing that I'm shocked about. Florida is eighty seventh and

672
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,719
Speaker 5: tackles for loss they a grade. They have a tackling

673
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 5: grade of ninety third. So George is gonna be able

674
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 5: to run and create exposive, explosive plays on the ground

675
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 5: all day. That's the thing is, like Florida is really

676
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 5: good at a pass rush. They're good when they know

677
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 5: that their opponent is going to throw, but they're not

678
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 5: very good at defending the rush or getting out of

679
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 5: standard downs. So does it really matter if it's stets

680
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 5: and Bend or JT.

681
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 7: Daniels. I think a lot of people question that. But

682
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 7: we were doing so.

683
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: Now I don't think so.

684
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 7: Now I don't think so either. I mean we were.

685
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 5: I was gonna say we were doing the live show

686
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 5: right before Georgia played Arkansas and JT. Daniels was announced

687
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 5: out and the spread moved to a point and a half.

688
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 7: That's it.

689
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 5: That's how much the market respects JT. Daniels over Stetson Bennett.

690
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 5: You go and look at Stetsan Bennon's throws over twenty yards.

691
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 5: He has six big time throws and zero turnover worthy plays.

692
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 5: So I get it that maybe JT. Daniels gives you

693
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 5: an advantage fifty yards down the field. But sets and

694
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 5: Bennett's doing just fine running this offense. So you know,

695
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 5: maybe JT. Daniels gets in against the Florida game. You know,

696
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 5: maybe they come bring in Stetsan Bennett, But the Gators

697
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 5: are a ferocious defense in passing downs from a havoc

698
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 5: and pass rush, and George's number one in the nation

699
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 5: yards to go on third down.

700
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 7: That's really important.

701
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 5: That's what keeps them in standard downs is that they're

702
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 5: averaging like five point one yards on third down the game.

703
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 5: I think the easiest play I made of the week

704
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 5: was the over because I completely agree with you. Florida

705
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 5: is going to have an offensive game plan and they're

706
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 5: gonna be able to go vertical down the field, which

707
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 5: George is not seen all year, and when Auburn tried

708
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 5: to do it, they were successful.

709
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 7: Bow Knicks had six passes over twenty yards.

710
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 5: I mean, if bo Knicks can do it, Anthony Richardson

711
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 5: can do it, Hemry Jones maybe can do it. He's

712
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 5: got a problem with turnover worthy plays. But I don't

713
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 5: see any value on the spread because I make it

714
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 5: closer to fourteen. If I had to pick, I would

715
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 5: take Florida. I would you know, fourteen and a half.

716
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 5: Maybe I'll bite, but I think the over is the

717
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 5: only way to go here. I think both teams easily

718
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 5: get points up on the board.

719
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 3: And finally, our last marquee game of the day, the

720
00:32:58,680 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 3: one you benching for.

721
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 2: Fresno State at San Diego State. Undefeated.

722
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 3: San Diego State pretty fluky un defeated San Diego State

723
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 3: top one and.

724
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: A half point. Yeah.

725
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 3: I love their best He's the best player of their team,

726
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: best offensive player, best defensive player, kicks field goals one

727
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 3: and a half point favorite at home over under forty five.

728
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 3: The question is can Jake Haner and this Fresno State

729
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 3: offense for the first time really get to the San

730
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 3: Diego State defense, which really hasn't seen a good quarterback

731
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: in good passing offense. Yeah, we know you can't run

732
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 3: on San Diego Stay you never can run on San

733
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 3: Diego State. You're not going to run on San Diego

734
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 3: State this year again. But their secondary hasn't been tested.

735
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: So the question is can Hainer and them get to

736
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 3: this secondary? And on the flip side, can you know

737
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 3: Sanego s can't throw the ball can Fresno States run

738
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 3: defense contain San Diego State and Bell because it's really

739
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 3: the only way San Diego State can move the ball.

740
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 2: Go ahead, sell us on, you're over well.

741
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 5: I mean, we just talked about how Georgia has not

742
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 5: seen a vertical passing game, has San Diego eighteen one?

743
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 7: I mean, when you look at this this list of

744
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 7: teams that.

745
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 2: Who's the best quarterback they face, I don't even know.

746
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 5: Well, I mean I'm looking at the list like Air

747
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 5: Force New Mexico thousand, Yeah, Arizona, New Mexico State. The

748
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 5: Utah game is when Charlie Brewer got benched, then cam

749
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 5: Riising came in through three tds, and then the San

750
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 5: Jose State game was Nick Nash trying to play a quarterback.

751
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 5: But he's a wide receiver, so you know, I.

752
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: Mean, who's he made some plays downfield? He made some

753
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: plays downfield, Nick Nash? Right, what are they gonna do

754
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 2: with jay receivers? Right? Yeah, they don't have any receivers either, So.

755
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 5: I mean it's a game I project project as a

756
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 5: pick total of forty six.

757
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 7: It's pretty much in line with the market.

758
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: The