Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making
Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova.
Speaker 2: And I'm Made Silver.
Speaker 1: It's the morning of Wednesday, November sixth, So today we
Speaker 1: are going to be talking about what happened yesterday, about
Speaker 1: the US election, about pulling, what went right, what went wrong,
Speaker 1: where we stand, the House race, the state of democracy,
Speaker 1: what we have to look forward to. And Nate, I'd
Speaker 1: like to kick us off by kind of asking you,
Speaker 1: you know, why why are we here this morning taping
Speaker 1: this podcast as opposed to the version of you know,
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has won the presidency.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I think Democrats faced a lot of uphill conditions.
Speaker 2: I mean to start with around the world. We'll start
Speaker 2: with three basic categories, actually, inflation, immigration, and Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: If you had said in January twenty twenty one, when
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was inaugurated, that we would have inflation hit
Speaker 2: a peak of nine percent. I guess it was an
Speaker 2: early twenty twenty two, then I think you would have
Speaker 2: probably said, Okay, I understand why Biden might lose or
Speaker 2: success or his successor might lose even to Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Right when you have a global backlash to immigration to
Speaker 2: the point where even famously immigrant friendly Canada Justin Trudeau,
Speaker 2: who's very unpopular, is announcing cuts to legal immigration in
Speaker 2: Canada country with frankly, plenty of space and plenty of
Speaker 2: tolerance for immigrants. Then you have a substantial rise in
Speaker 2: unwonted arrivals on the southern border, and that can be
Speaker 2: an issue. And Joe Biden decided he wanted to be
Speaker 2: president until he was eighty six, a terrible idea from
Speaker 2: the start, which culminated in an embarrassing spectacle of a
Speaker 2: debate in which, you know, frankly, I became worried that
Speaker 2: the president of the United States was not capable of
Speaker 2: carrying out his duties. And that had been a fact
Speaker 2: that was denied by lots of people who were Democratic
Speaker 2: partisans who couldn't because these things are all quite obvious. Right,
Speaker 2: I'm very pro immigrant. I'm probably not as bothered by
Speaker 2: that as some other people, But like inflation is just
Speaker 2: an empirical fact that you see every time you go
Speaker 2: to the grocery store or drive past the gas station. Right,
Speaker 2: and the fact that Biden was old and infirm mentally
Speaker 2: potentially or at least came across that way. Maybe coincidentally,
Speaker 2: he was extremely lucive and sober in private moments, but
Speaker 2: every time he appeared in public, every other time he wasn't.
Speaker 2: So these conditions plus the fact that we have lots
Speaker 2: of empirical evidence that, like globally, it's been a really
Speaker 2: have time for incumbents, you know, and the fact that
Speaker 2: Democrats message was a little bit tired the third time
Speaker 2: that people say vote for us or the country gets it.
Speaker 2: Democracy ends, people stop believing it, even if there's more
Speaker 2: than a grain of truth in it. I mean, I
Speaker 2: think we're gonna have Actually when I irony is that, like
Speaker 2: the fact that this election was not particularly close means
Speaker 2: that we're not going to have a contested election. I
Speaker 2: guess Harris took a while frankly to concede. But this
Speaker 2: is Trump's last election, presumably Democrats is it, Well, I
Speaker 2: don't know. I think there is some how to put this.
Speaker 2: If Trump's gonna win, conditional on that, I think there
Speaker 2: is some good in it being a relatively decisive, undisputed
Speaker 2: win where he'll probably also win the popular vie vote,
Speaker 2: and then in four years he'll be gone and in
Speaker 2: two years we'll have a midterm where Democrats they might
Speaker 2: win the House this year still, but they'll be in
Speaker 2: a strong position against I'm sure a Trump who has
Speaker 2: overreached and will be very unpopular to retake the House.
Speaker 2: The Senate's a longer shot. They'll but they're going to
Speaker 2: have to have a real reconciliation. It's not the marginal
Speaker 2: stuff that matters. And you know, maybe it will make
Speaker 2: Trump a little more content and more trying. Now I'm
Speaker 2: not kidding, howy, maybe more trying to govern. For the
Speaker 2: plurality of a popular vote, he's going to win. He
Speaker 2: may even win a majority. We should say, there's a
Speaker 2: lot of voteleft in California, in places like that, so
Speaker 2: I don't think it's out of the question that Harris
Speaker 2: can win the popular vote. But it could also be
Speaker 2: Trump plus two or something like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I want to add a few factors
Speaker 1: to why I think Harris lost. But I also want
Speaker 1: to push back a little bit on the fact that
Speaker 1: he's going to be happy and will tone down and
Speaker 1: become more moderate, because, frankly, from a psychological standpoint, what
Speaker 1: we know about Donald Trump, what we know about the
Speaker 1: personalities of people who are cult leaders who are kind
Speaker 1: of the source of strongman that he is and that
Speaker 1: he has just openly said he is, and the source
Speaker 1: of people he admires. He loves power, he loves himself,
Speaker 1: and he loves his cult, and he loves kind of
Speaker 1: his adoring fans, and he loves saying outlandas shit like
Speaker 1: he gets off on it. You know, I don't see him.
Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong, by the way, Like I don't
Speaker 1: want to be right here, but I don't see him
Speaker 1: toning down. I don't see him moderating. He has flat
Speaker 1: out said that he is going to basically operate as
Speaker 1: close to a dictatorship as he wants. That he wants to,
Speaker 1: you know, jail his enemies and do this and do that.
Speaker 1: And I think we'd be well served to actually listen
Speaker 1: to the words coming out of his mouth, because he
Speaker 1: is telling us exactly.
Speaker 2: What he wants to. It's a cult that currently according
Speaker 2: to the York Time I'm on the vote of fifty
Speaker 2: one person.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, well, that's the way cults work, you know, that's.
Speaker 2: Not it's not a cult. I mean, I think there's
Speaker 2: something in place in the definition of a cult that
Speaker 2: it's so let's Okay, energized minority.
Speaker 1: So let's let's let's go back and call it con
Speaker 1: artist and people who are in the in the thralls
Speaker 1: of a con artist as opposed to saying cult. What
Speaker 1: I'm trying to say is that when it's basically a
Speaker 1: movement founded on one person and on people believing in
Speaker 1: the personality of that one person and kind of being
Speaker 1: not caring as much about a lot of other things,
Speaker 1: as kind of the fact that this is a charismatic leader.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I've never met Trump, but I'm
Speaker 1: willing to bet that he's incredibly charismatic and he has
Speaker 1: some sort of kind of intuitive appeal if you if
Speaker 1: you spend time with him, because otherwise this is like
Speaker 1: very difficult to understand. I'm sure he has magnetic energy
Speaker 1: and that you know that that's kind of part of
Speaker 1: all of this. But what I wanted to what I
Speaker 1: also wanted to say was in terms of kind of
Speaker 1: why he won, I think all of the reasons that
Speaker 1: you stated are absolutely spot on, and I would just
Speaker 1: add to that that I wouldn't underestimate how much people
Speaker 1: hate women like I actually think that this is part
Speaker 1: of it. This is why part of the reason why
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton lost in twenty sixteen, and one of the
Speaker 1: reasons why this is kind of the you know, when
Speaker 1: you were saying that Biden is shoulders a lot of
Speaker 1: blame for not stepping aside earlier, Like he put us
Speaker 1: in a position where he put us, he put the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party in a position where Kamala Harris was kind
Speaker 1: of the only choice. And I think it was a
Speaker 1: really bad mistake to run a female against Trump a
Speaker 1: second time. And I think that people underestimate how much
Speaker 1: that mattered. I don't think Biden would have won, by
Speaker 1: the way, like I think you mightn't absolutely needed to go,
Speaker 1: but he needed to go sooner so that we could
Speaker 1: have had a primary and so that there were choices
Speaker 1: other than Kamala Harris. Because psychologically speaking, I think it
Speaker 1: was a horrible mistake to run a female candidate against
Speaker 1: Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Look as the guy in the pairing, I worry that
Speaker 2: Democrats will internalize that message too much and now it
Speaker 2: becomes a thing that you know, are they not going
Speaker 2: to nominate a women for president in the next thirty years?
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if.
Speaker 1: No, that's not that's not what I'm that's not what
Speaker 1: I'm trying to say.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, Democrats, that's not.
Speaker 1: What I'm telling you.
Speaker 2: You have Trump woulding currently Michigan has not been called
Speaker 2: probably a one point win, and neighboring Wisconsin one point win,
Speaker 2: and somewhat neighboring Pennsylvania three points, probably closed to two
Speaker 2: points with late reported vote. Should have picked Shapiro, but
Speaker 2: wasn't the factor that mattered. Yeah, I don't know. Does
Speaker 2: a Whitmer Shapiro ticket that throws Biden under the bus win? Maybe?
Speaker 2: I don't know. I have no idea. Look, I don't
Speaker 2: think Harris was. She didn't really have a message, she
Speaker 2: didn't really have a second act. She had this period
Speaker 2: that got Democrats very excited. And it's very weird because
Speaker 2: like conservatives are not good at coming up with the
Speaker 2: strongest intellectual hygiene version of their argument, right, they'll say
Speaker 2: things that are in the wrong way, the unapproved way.
Speaker 2: I just think if you believe in democracy, you have
Speaker 2: to have some respect for the fact that fifty one
Speaker 2: percent of Americans probably call the fifty ish forty nine
Speaker 2: point seven ish or something voted for Donald Trump. Including
Speaker 2: By the way, where we live, Uh, you live part time,
Speaker 2: I live mostly full time enough. I have to pay
Speaker 2: New York City taxes in New York City, where they
Speaker 2: were huge cans. I mean working on an article on
Speaker 2: this this morning in Queens. Yeah, Queen's New York. Donald
Speaker 2: Trump got thirty eight percent of the vote. It's double
Speaker 2: what he got in twenty two he got nineteen point
Speaker 2: nine percent. I mean no, I.
Speaker 1: Think I think you're absolutely right. We cannot we can't
Speaker 1: just put that aside. And by the way, I think
Speaker 1: that Democrats are also to blame. I think that they
Speaker 1: did lose votes from like the very woke Democrats who
Speaker 1: are like we, you know, we refuse to support Kamala Harris,
Speaker 1: like the holier than now Liberals who are like, oh,
Speaker 1: because of her stance on Gaza, we will not be
Speaker 1: voting for her. They are absolutely to blame as well.
Speaker 1: And I hope that they understand that because I think
Speaker 1: that some of the vote, you know, you've got the
Speaker 1: Hispanic men, like that's you know, the the immigration, the economy,
Speaker 1: very real issues that they don't understand that. I think
Speaker 1: Democrats might actually be better for them than Republicans. But
Speaker 1: then you also have you know, within the Democratic Party,
Speaker 1: I think there were major missteps as well.
Speaker 2: Well. About one point five percent of the vote collectively
Speaker 2: goes to all third party candidates, which is low actually
Speaker 2: by recent standards. Look, I do think low key that
Speaker 2: this was a hidden factor that hurt Harris. You didn't
Speaker 2: really have a right leaning I mean, you know, I
Speaker 2: don't particularly consider libertarian candidates right leaning, but you didn't
Speaker 2: have like a Pappy Cannon type. You did have Jill Stein.
Speaker 2: You also had Kennedy endorsed Trump, and that kind of
Speaker 2: coincided with a a rough period for Harris. And the
Speaker 2: polls actually where she had her convention, things looked on
Speaker 2: the up and up and then and then doesn't get
Speaker 2: that much press coverage, but Kennedy endorses Trump, and and
Speaker 2: and you know, all of a sudden, Harris is pulling
Speaker 2: worse than she had before the convention. So, you know,
Speaker 2: if that makes it a point, it probably isn't. No
Speaker 2: one point election probably comes down to needing a two
Speaker 2: point ish swing. But I guess, I mean, I think
Speaker 2: we've had this kind of difference in perspectives before. But
Speaker 2: like I am more willing to tolerate or credit like
Speaker 2: an inarticulate or poorly articulated moral feeling you know what
Speaker 2: I mean. I that Like, I mean, I don't get
Speaker 2: excised about like immigration and s but like it's the
Speaker 2: notion that like things shifted far to the left and
Speaker 2: that elites like you and I got a little bit
Speaker 2: drunk on their power, right, I mean, you know, one
Speaker 2: thing it wasn't wasn't one of the twenty most important
Speaker 2: factors in the election. But like, you know, like the
Speaker 2: student lone relief bill benefits basically wealthy people, including a
Speaker 2: lot of like law school graduates and things like that,
Speaker 2: instead of like the working class right literally benefits only
Speaker 2: people who went to college. And that's Democrats attempt at
Speaker 2: like populism in that country where most people don't go
Speaker 2: to college. And by the way, more women than men
Speaker 2: go to college. And this was an election where kind
Speaker 2: of revenge of the men. I agree about that part,
Speaker 2: and like, and I don't know, I mean it's a
Speaker 2: stale critique, but the notion that like kind of liberals
Speaker 2: are living in a bubble and that they're kind of
Speaker 2: I don't know, I you know, obviously if you followed
Speaker 2: my work, like I kind of became disillusioned with the
Speaker 2: way that I thought expertise was weaponized for political purposes
Speaker 2: during COVID, and that a lot of what passed republic
Speaker 2: Health advice was just like trying to say Orange Man
Speaker 2: bad Or or declare which team you're on. And I
Speaker 2: don't know. And I voted for Harris. I voted for Harris,
Speaker 2: like I said on the earlier show, on the Working
Speaker 2: Family's line is just a little minor protest to constitute
Speaker 2: party system. So this is not the outcome I wanted.
Speaker 2: But like, I understand why people voted for Trump, and
Speaker 2: I don't buy the notion that the only reason was
Speaker 2: because that the will was pulled over their eyes. I mean,
Speaker 2: maybe it was about Trump in particular, right, Like I
Speaker 2: agree with the part that, like he will not deliver
Speaker 2: on some of the things he promises. I mean, even
Speaker 2: on economic growth. I think tariffs are very damaging. And
Speaker 2: and you know, Elon Musk going on Joe Rogan and
Speaker 2: saying it will be the less election of Trump. I mean,
Speaker 2: just that's fucking gross, right, there's no kind of warrant
Speaker 2: to that claim, and Trump's disrespect for the rule of
Speaker 2: law and January sixth, But like, but like you know,
Speaker 2: I mean a friend of the podcast, Jeff Mauer, who
Speaker 2: writes a block. He's like, it's not quite the boy
Speaker 2: who called wolf, because Trump is a wolf, but it's
Speaker 2: people seeing everything is a wolf, and maybe just focusing
Speaker 2: on the the one wolf, the really bad thing that
Speaker 2: wolf did you know? January sixth And the cronyism, which,
Speaker 2: by the way, I mean, Harris played it about and
Speaker 2: Democrats played it about as badly as you can when
Speaker 2: it comes to like like if you're going to have
Speaker 2: the richest man in the world turn against you, and
Speaker 2: you know, maybe Elon benefited Trump in various ways, maybe not,
Speaker 2: we can debate that. Then at least do some fucking
Speaker 2: populist shit, you know what I mean, or at least
Speaker 2: say that like all these Silicon Valley and they kind
Speaker 2: of just played it in a very in a very
Speaker 2: weird way where they seem to regret like offending Silicon Valley,
Speaker 2: but they didn't take advantage of the fact that, like
Speaker 2: Silicon Valley is not very popular, Elon Musk is more
Speaker 2: popular than the average Lolicon Valley magnate. But like, but
Speaker 2: the message of they retreated to the Biden message that
Speaker 2: had been losing the whole time, and like they're gonna
Speaker 2: lose popular wrote by one point set of four points,
Speaker 2: because like that's the penalty for being eighty one years old.
Speaker 2: But I don't know, I don't quite I don't quite
Speaker 2: get what they thought was happening.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean I think that what you just
Speaker 1: said was what kind of what I meant about? Like
Speaker 1: not even though Kamala Harris was running on vibes early
Speaker 1: on about not quite getting kind of what you need
Speaker 1: to do with with social media and the kinds of
Speaker 1: pointed messages that you need to get across, which the
Speaker 1: Republicans did incredibly well, right, they didn't attack that, like
Speaker 1: they didn't take those shots that I think they should
Speaker 1: have taken that would have resonated a little bit more.
Speaker 1: And so I think that, you know, I don't disagree
Speaker 1: with you that there are very real issues that Democrats
Speaker 1: need to address right about you know, the discontent and
Speaker 1: why I think that where we So I still fully
Speaker 1: maintain that there is will pulled over people's eyes and
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is a con artist because he's not
Speaker 1: going to deliver on what he says. But I think
Speaker 1: that we need to figure out, you know, why were
Speaker 1: they susceptible? Right? Why are people susceptible? To con artists,
Speaker 1: and you're become more susceptible when there's transitions, social change, uncertainty,
Speaker 1: where bad things are happening to you, where bad shit's
Speaker 1: going down right, where you're losing money, bad economic times,
Speaker 1: all of these things existential threats. That's when con artists
Speaker 1: can sweep in. And I think that that's kind of
Speaker 1: that's the thing that ties what you're saying, Nate, to
Speaker 1: what I'm saying, right. I think that Democrats have been
Speaker 1: ignoring a lot of those reasons for too long. Right,
Speaker 1: Why was over half of the population susceptible to this message?
Speaker 1: And those are very real issues that you know, make
Speaker 1: people psychologically susceptible to charismatic leaders right to people who
Speaker 1: can really kind of galvanize those feelings of discos tend
Speaker 1: and then sell them the version of the world that
Speaker 1: they want to see, right, a version where they are empowered,
Speaker 1: where they get their own back, where they become kind
Speaker 1: of the protagonists again instead of people who feel like
Speaker 1: they're marginalized. And I think that that's the dynamic that
Speaker 1: we see happening. So I think that that kind of
Speaker 1: squares the things that you and I are talking about,
Speaker 1: would kind would you agree with that way of looking
Speaker 1: at it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I guess I'm having trouble articulating.
Speaker 1: It's like, it's okay, we haven't said much.
Speaker 2: A better version of Trump would have a very good
Speaker 2: argument that Biden Harris should be voted out of office
Speaker 2: right now. Trump like makes the wrong version of that argument,
Speaker 2: which kind of happens to be more successful because it's
Speaker 2: a populous version. I don't know, I mean, look all right,
Speaker 2: all right, well a notion that like, I mean, look again,
Speaker 2: I think the popular vote thing is a big deal.
Speaker 1: Fact like Trump huge.
Speaker 2: Gains according to both the exit polls, which are not
Speaker 2: reliable and just ecological data among Hispanic voters, and I
Speaker 2: think also among Asian American voters, and probably actually lesser
Speaker 2: among Black voters. It seems to have been a little
Speaker 2: overbaked in the polls. But you know, the fastest growing
Speaker 2: populations in the US are are Hispanic, Asian and quote
Speaker 2: unquote other or mixed, and those are the populations where
Speaker 2: it looks like Trump gained the most ground. I mean,
Speaker 2: I can't like help but see some irony in the
Speaker 2: fact that like a now i' when it's not like
Speaker 2: a fucking conservative podcast for thirty seconds. Right, But like
Speaker 2: the Democrats like hyper attention on racial identity, it's most
Speaker 2: like white people, you know. And it's like, I think
Speaker 2: a lot of people who are not like white, super
Speaker 2: college educated people think like this is just weird, right,
Speaker 2: why are they so obsessed with this shit? And actually,
Speaker 2: we want to integrate, right, We want to integrate into society.
Speaker 2: Maybe we're first generation or second generation or whatever, right,
Speaker 2: and we don't want to like be cordoned off into
Speaker 2: like racial identity groups. And it's just it's just it's
Speaker 2: has to be one of the most electorally unappealing messages
Speaker 2: in the history of the United States, because like it's
Speaker 2: not it's not the majority, right, it's one thing. It's
Speaker 2: a majority, and you demonize the minority. Right, But like
Speaker 2: woke white people or woke any people are a pretty
Speaker 2: small minority. And the fact that if you're not on
Speaker 2: board with their entire agenda, if you're or if you're
Speaker 2: like me on on the COVIDT you're like, yeah, vaccine's good.
Speaker 2: Lockdowns went too far, Masks, we can you know, probably
Speaker 2: minor either way, do what you want to do, right,
Speaker 2: Like the fact that you're seeing as a fucking heretic
Speaker 2: for like stating in this majority position, most people felt
Speaker 2: like vaccines good. Uh, lockdowns went too far, masks do
Speaker 2: it to be polite? Probably doesn't matter that. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's just I don't know. I mean, you're you can't
Speaker 2: have a message that says if you're not in this
Speaker 2: narrow circle on all people. And Trump was the one
Speaker 2: who went on these weird fucking bro podcasts and went
Speaker 2: and tried to get votes that weren't his and tried
Speaker 2: to get the crypto people and did a you know,
Speaker 2: rally with MODI was at in twenty sixteen, right, and like,
Speaker 2: I'm on your side Indian Americans. It's so crude, But
Speaker 2: you don't actually get that from Democrats saying I'm on
Speaker 2: your side, right, I'm fighting for you against the elie.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess because they are the elites. I
Speaker 2: mean there's like that's a non hypocritical I mean it
Speaker 2: is hypocritical. I'll take that time. I mean, because Trump
Speaker 2: is an elite and it's always been just truly.
Speaker 1: Is an elite, and he's going to be worse for
Speaker 1: those people than democrass in a lot of ways, which
Speaker 1: is the irony of all of this right, that he
Speaker 1: is much better at appealing to them and at thinking
Speaker 1: that he's going to be better for them, where at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, he really is not. And
Speaker 1: I think that there there is a lot of evidence
Speaker 1: for that. So it is ironic, but it's very true.
Speaker 1: So this is where we are, and I think that
Speaker 1: it is important to note this, and it's important to
Speaker 1: try to understand why Democrats have lost so much of
Speaker 1: the Hispanic but why they've lost some of the Asian vote,
Speaker 1: why they're losing a lot of these votes that they
Speaker 1: should be winning because theoretically they should be better for them.
Speaker 1: And so I think this is just an issue for
Speaker 1: two years down the line, four years down the line.
Speaker 1: These are things that the party has to grapple with.
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the polls and about
Speaker 1: whether you think that Donald Trump was once again underestimated,
Speaker 1: even though pollsters tried very very hard not to commit
Speaker 1: that error. What do you think? And I'm also actually
Speaker 1: quite curious about We talked about the Seltzer poll on Monday,
Speaker 1: so I'm quite curious about your take on that as well.
Speaker 2: So it's an oddly consistent it looks like polling air
Speaker 2: of about two maybe two and a half points for
Speaker 2: this stuff, you do want the precision of waiting till
Speaker 2: everything is in. Right, if you take all the polls
Speaker 2: and shift them over by two points two and a
Speaker 2: half points toward Trump, then they were actually very accurate.
Speaker 2: And you know, the average systematic polling here is like
Speaker 2: three points basically, so like basically you had, like it's
Speaker 2: very normal. And the thing is when you have like, uh,
Speaker 2: things took close to fifty to fifty, then shifting everything
Speaker 2: two and a half points to Trump goes from you know,
Speaker 2: the swing states being split to Trump winning all seven,
Speaker 2: which you probably will the other way. It's Harris Went's
Speaker 2: all six. I mean, clearly it's a very tough cycle
Speaker 2: for the and Seltzer style of we're just going to
Speaker 2: trust the raw data and we're not going to do
Speaker 2: a lot of waiting and a lot of turnout modeling. Right, Yeah, look,
Speaker 2: it's the short version. Is like the idea that like
Speaker 2: it was a bad election for polling is kind of
Speaker 2: like wrong on the surface, but kind of true on
Speaker 2: some deeper level. Right, the extent to which Poles had
Speaker 2: an okay here by the metrics that you used to
Speaker 2: officially judge them, and there were plenty of poles to
Speaker 2: clear that showed a result exactly like this. Right, We're
Speaker 2: not lacking impolsters, includinghigh quality posters who like had Trump
Speaker 2: winning these swing states, had Trump even winning the popular vote.
Speaker 2: I mean, the New York Times last poll had the
Speaker 2: popular vote in Trump's hands. In the last NBC News
Speaker 2: poll had the popular vote tied, which will be about right, right,
Speaker 2: maybe it's a win for national poll but this is
Speaker 2: actually not so far from the polls, but like it's
Speaker 2: bad for the pure sense that we're gonna go out
Speaker 2: and collect public opinion and and not do a lot
Speaker 2: of waiting and massaging. And I don't know, I mean,
Speaker 2: look at the end, I think there was a lot
Speaker 2: of hurting in the polls and a lot of hedging,
Speaker 2: and I think Antseelser still had a lot of guts
Speaker 2: to like not second to that. And part of the
Speaker 2: beauty of polling averages that you collected diversity of opinions.
Speaker 2: But like, you know, it's what I worry about, and
Speaker 2: a lot of things in society, including the polling, is
Speaker 2: that like there's not really this kind of ground truth anymore.
Speaker 2: Everyone is kind of indexing on everyone else, like and like,
Speaker 2: what happened is that the modal outcome is that you
Speaker 2: get closer to the mark, Like if Polsters had not hurted,
Speaker 2: it would have been more of a surprise. But what
Speaker 2: happens is that when something really big happens, I mean
Speaker 2: in a statistical way, you get you don't get this
Speaker 2: bell curve distribution that occurs from like normal statistical phenomenon
Speaker 2: where you're taking a random sample of something right. Instead
Speaker 2: you get a dispute with wide fat tails where actually,
Speaker 2: most of time you kind of are pretty good, right,
Speaker 2: but then there are catastrophic nonlinear misses and shifts every
Speaker 2: now and then, and maybe the next shift will be
Speaker 2: that the Gretchen Whitmer Jos Shapiro ticket, or maybe it
Speaker 2: won't be something like that you know, is two points behind.
Speaker 2: I know, the fuck that Giope no money will be
Speaker 2: I mean, look, Democrats are probably set up pretty good
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty eight, you know, I mean, Trump will
Speaker 2: probably be unpopular and probably overreach or worse in a
Speaker 2: lot of ways, and it will be he's old, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, Democrats at a good bench and they'll have
Speaker 2: a fresh start.
Speaker 1: So just kind of to sum up you if you
Speaker 1: were to give advice, I don't know if that's the
Speaker 1: right way of phrasing it, But if you were to
Speaker 1: kind of be thinking about polls two years, four years
Speaker 1: down the line, do you think that anything needs to
Speaker 1: change basically or do you think that you know, obviously
Speaker 1: we did have the polls saying that this was going
Speaker 1: to be an exceptionally close election. And even though it
Speaker 1: looks like Trump is sweeping, he as you point out,
Speaker 1: is sweeping by small percentages, right, So it is within
Speaker 1: those polling errors. So do you think that the polls
Speaker 1: should just posters should keep going as they've been going,
Speaker 1: or do adjustments need to be made in kind of
Speaker 1: the new climate to how we look at them?
Speaker 2: How were types of adjustments? So you do have these
Speaker 2: counterpoints of like, see these three elections where Trump runs,
Speaker 2: presidential elections where Trump runs and beats his polls. The
Speaker 2: biggest miss was actually twenty twenty, just that Biden is
Speaker 2: such a big lead it didn't cost in the election,
Speaker 2: and then twenty sixteen, and then and then this year's
Speaker 2: the smallest miss. Probably we'll see the numbers once all
Speaker 2: the paint is dry. I just think the techniques they're
Speaker 2: applying like I want to see a fucking poll that
Speaker 2: I don't know, Pretacher was always going to say Trump
Speaker 2: plus one right or tie.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: It's like it's like, can you find ways to like,
Speaker 2: I don't know, not put a thumb on the scale,
Speaker 2: but understand that like these classic methods aren't working but
Speaker 2: actually still have like some semblance of like not just
Speaker 2: artificial sweetener of like real content from like real people
Speaker 2: and not just you know, I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean, there are elements of the story everywhere. There
Speaker 2: are a lot of poles that did show Trump losing
Speaker 2: ground among our gaining ground among Latino voters and among
Speaker 2: blackboot Like why did the why was the Latino thing
Speaker 2: underestimated but the black vote overestimated? You know, I think
Speaker 2: in general, polsters and to also, you know, have more
Speaker 2: consideration for people who are not black or white or Latino.
Speaker 2: That's a growing segment of the population that's influential in
Speaker 2: some states, and they get tossed into lumped into non
Speaker 2: white or something, right, And you know, I mean that's
Speaker 2: a little minor thing. I mean, I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 2: you do have the fact that like in the elections,
Speaker 2: when Trump has not been on the ballot. The polls
Speaker 2: were fine, The Poles were pretty good in twenty eighteen
Speaker 2: and twenty twenty two. They underestimate Democrats in twenty twelve,
Speaker 2: and so I think Poles are going to be hoping
Speaker 2: it was just a Trump thing. And look, eventually people
Speaker 2: will move their methodologies enough where they will have some
Speaker 2: cycle eventually where they underestimate Democrats. I don't know which
Speaker 2: one it will be. Yeah, I mean, it's not great.
Speaker 2: We'll be right back after this message.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm curious. The other kind of the other element
Speaker 1: here is that you know, we've talked before about how
Speaker 1: the prediction markets and poly market where your paid advisor
Speaker 1: is was actually differing from from the polls for for
Speaker 1: a while and then started converging back to the polls.
Speaker 1: But you can make the argument that in some ways
Speaker 1: they were more correct right than the polls. Yeah, I know.
Speaker 1: Or do you think that was a fluke by that
Speaker 1: French French oil you know.
Speaker 2: I mean the prediction markets kind of they're always more
Speaker 2: republican than the models are, and when Republicans win, they
Speaker 2: look smart. Ironically. In twenty sixteen, Yeah, look at the
Speaker 2: little data point in favor of them and good for
Speaker 2: my poly market equity, I guess, but like I mean,
Speaker 2: I don't, I don't, I don't know. I think you
Speaker 2: have elections every four years, and eighty percent of people
Speaker 2: just bet on better blue every time, and they can
Speaker 2: kind of construct narratives or they look smart when they
Speaker 2: when they do. You know, look, I mean it is
Speaker 2: also true that if poles become less reliable, then it's
Speaker 2: not that your gut becomes more reliable, but it's that
Speaker 2: it becomes more reliable relative to a declining indicator. You
Speaker 2: know what I mean, because an arguments. It's never quite
Speaker 2: that like your gut tells you literally nothing. It's that
Speaker 2: like you formerly have this kind of like scientific way
Speaker 2: to do better than your gut and now maybe you know,
Speaker 2: poles kind of reflect cut anyway, there's like not even
Speaker 2: this like clear distinction about it. And you know, I
Speaker 2: don't know, I don't know. I think it was I
Speaker 2: think if you look at like the history, I think
Speaker 2: prediction markets need a couple more good cycles. But I
Speaker 2: mean they got they got Look give credit where it's
Speaker 2: give credit where's due. The French whale's wealthier man today.
Speaker 2: I hope he comes to the win Las Vegas and
Speaker 2: December employees in some tournaments.
Speaker 1: Yes, there's a there are some wonderful events. French Whale,
Speaker 1: please please come and play. But I do I do
Speaker 1: want to say that, you know, I always caution against
Speaker 1: going with your quote unquote gut feeling because what we know,
Speaker 1: and I just want to kind of put that out there,
Speaker 1: is that humans are very very bad at distinguishing correct
Speaker 1: from incorrect gut feelings. Right, we're equally certain that both
Speaker 1: that both are good. We just we don't know which
Speaker 1: are right and which are wrong. So the gut sometimes
Speaker 1: tells us the right thing and sometimes the wrong thing,
Speaker 1: but we just have no fucking clue. So I think
Speaker 1: that that's really really important, which is why we need data,
Speaker 1: which is why we need kind of these external sources
Speaker 1: where you know, in a in a tie break, you
Speaker 1: can kind of look at your gut, especially if it's
Speaker 1: a thing where you're an expert in right, where you
Speaker 1: might not have conscious access to why your gut is
Speaker 1: saying something. But it's not actually a gut feeling, it's
Speaker 1: just expertise, right, It's the fact that you have pattern recognition,
Speaker 1: because this is something that you're very good at and
Speaker 1: that you have correctly identified many many times before. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: the elections is absolutely not that, because we have, as
Speaker 1: you say, an election every four years, we simply do
Speaker 1: not have the experience, We don't have the feedback, and
Speaker 1: so I would just I would very much caution against
Speaker 1: kind of using your gut to try to come to pronouncements,
Speaker 1: especially because when you're also in an emotional situation, your
Speaker 1: gut tends to be much more incorrect, right because you
Speaker 1: have there are things that are clouding your judgment, there
Speaker 1: are things that are making you act in one way
Speaker 1: or another. So I truly hope that we are able
Speaker 1: to be in a situation where we have external data
Speaker 1: ways that we can make sure that our polling, you know,
Speaker 1: does not if it deteriorates, that it then becomes better again,
Speaker 1: and that you know, things like prediction markets end up
Speaker 1: being good. Even though I know, and you've written about
Speaker 1: this extensively, that when it comes to big events like
Speaker 1: you know, the elections or the super Bowl, the super
Speaker 1: bowls that we have more frequently, prediction markets are obviously
Speaker 1: not the same as when it's when you have less money, right,
Speaker 1: less on money, less less emotional money on the line.
Speaker 1: So I think that that's uh really important.
Speaker 2: One thing, if you were following polymarket last night, if
Speaker 2: you're following poly market last night, you knew a lot
Speaker 2: sooner than Harris was gonna lose. I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: at first, very early on, there were these counties in
Speaker 2: Indiana and stuff that looked pretty good for her. But
Speaker 2: that's because you had you had a lot of vote
Speaker 2: that was early vote, and Democrats actually looks like did
Speaker 2: do better in the early vote. And then you get
Speaker 2: the election day vote and it gets a little redder,
Speaker 2: and then it was kind of consistently every you know,
Speaker 2: except I mean New York in California might actually have
Speaker 2: more of a red shift. And then like there are
Speaker 2: a few a few of the crunchy plays. You know,
Speaker 2: main looks pretty good for Democrats. Colorado, right, the really
Speaker 2: white states with a lot all of the Colorado was
Speaker 2: a little bit more diverse. But like, yeah, I mean
Speaker 2: there are these pockets, but like very few, very few pockets.
Speaker 2: I mean kind of what happened is that, like I
Speaker 2: don't know if Harris actually gained ground among white voters
Speaker 2: like some poles said she would, she lost some ground.
Speaker 2: Even over this, she saw some ground of bumble black voters.
Speaker 2: Not that much, although if you look at Eckel, I mean,
Speaker 2: look at the fucking Bronx. Let me look at the Bronx,
Speaker 2: which is obviously Hispanic and black. Trump got twenty seven
Speaker 2: percent of the vote in the Bronx. That's do you know?
Speaker 2: How about you got in twenty twelve? Now I don't
Speaker 2: eight percent. It's fucking tripled three point five x in
Speaker 2: twelve years.
Speaker 1: That's huge, and that's terrifying.
Speaker 2: It was Romney and twenty twelve, she'd say, not a
Speaker 2: Bronx guy, No, not at all. Trump got nine and
Speaker 2: a half percent in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 1: Still, still, this is still, this is huge, It is terrifying.
Speaker 1: There's something worth consideration. Let's talk a little bit about
Speaker 1: will Trump get the popular vote? I think there's there's
Speaker 1: some indications that he will, but we obviously don't have
Speaker 1: the numbers yet. This is morning on Wednesday the sixth.
Speaker 1: Will what will happen in the House. I think that
Speaker 1: these are things that are actually quite important for Trump's
Speaker 1: mindset and for how he kind of sweeps into office
Speaker 1: and what his first orders of business are going to be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, elections have consequences. You know, as
Speaker 2: far as the House goes, you have a lot of
Speaker 2: races that are uncalled. The model's decision Desk HQ has
Speaker 2: like a model that last night was showing actually Democrats
Speaker 2: were favored to keep the House. That shifted GP. Now
Speaker 2: the prediction markets have shifted GP. Now it's competitive. I mean,
Speaker 2: but the kind of most likely scenario is this tenuous
Speaker 2: GOP majority where it's Republican probably, I mean, I don't
Speaker 2: know the exact numbers, right, but like, but the Freedom
Speaker 2: Caucus we have a narrow GP majority. It's not very functional.
Speaker 2: So that's a beat up point. The US House is
Speaker 2: now where the action is in politics. Certainly if Democrats
Speaker 2: win it, which is still a possibility, but like it's
Speaker 2: you know, either that or like a relatively narrow Republican majority.
Speaker 2: That's the range, like and like and if that happens
Speaker 2: then then yeah, I mean that's where the action is.
Speaker 2: The Senate is not going to be with probably fifty
Speaker 2: three ish Republican senators, it's not going to be a
Speaker 2: check on Trump's power appreciably, but the House in a
Speaker 2: weird way might be. And then you have to think
Speaker 2: Democrats are pretty clear favorites to take back the House
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be nice, and I think and the
Speaker 1: other part of it is obviously the judiciary, right and
Speaker 1: all of the federal appointments that Trump is going to
Speaker 1: be able to make, and potentially Supreme Court. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is something that we've talked about before. I actually
Speaker 1: think that it would be pretty dangerous, given what happened
Speaker 1: with uh past appointments in the slam duck period, for
Speaker 1: so Tamyr to try to retire now and try to
Speaker 1: get Biden to replace her.
Speaker 2: I think that.
Speaker 1: That that might not go down very well. But I
Speaker 1: think we're now in exactly the scenario that you and
Speaker 1: I talked about where she wanted the first female president
Speaker 1: to replace her, and now like there's a good chance
Speaker 1: she's going to be replaced by Trump. So this is
Speaker 1: kind of one of the other.
Speaker 2: Consequences I got. I got a plan for you.
Speaker 1: What's a plan for me?
Speaker 2: Joe Biden appears on stage six PM and Kamala Harris's
Speaker 2: concession speech and say I'm clearly not fucking fit to
Speaker 2: be president twenty four to seven and there for Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris now president until January twentieth and then she appoints
Speaker 2: Clada my Or's replacement.
Speaker 1: All right, well will that work? Okay, guys, listen to us.
Speaker 1: This is something that this is something that who.
Speaker 2: Do you think would make a better president? There's still crize.
Speaker 2: It's still one two, three months, right, Like, I'd rather
Speaker 2: have Kamala Harris president, absolutely, and maybe maybe you maybe
Speaker 2: you create a little bit less stigma around the next
Speaker 2: you tell me a female candidate, if you've had a woman.
Speaker 1: That's actually a really interesting proposal. I like it, you know, so,
Speaker 1: so I think that that would be a really good
Speaker 1: call to action for for Biden. I know you said
Speaker 1: that kind of tongue in cheek, Nate, but still like,
Speaker 1: if Biden were to instate this first female president and
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris can actually get shit done in the next
Speaker 1: three months, and I think that that would be a
Speaker 1: really really interesting consideration and play for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: So let's leave it at that, Biden, you know, why
Speaker 1: don't you, why don't you step aside and let the
Speaker 1: first woman be president? So sunny before before we leave, though,
Speaker 1: what are you going to be doing for the rest
Speaker 1: of the day.
Speaker 2: You know, I got to write a blog post and
Speaker 2: then I fucking free, fucking free, Mark, I can do
Speaker 2: where the fuck I want for the first time in
Speaker 2: like three hundred days because I have the book deadline,
Speaker 2: and then yeah, yeah, i'd be free.
Speaker 1: Here's racing your freedom date. I will also be drinking today,
Speaker 1: and I will attempt once again to play poker, because
Speaker 1: yesterday I was playing the NAP ten North American Poker's
Speaker 1: Tour main event, and as the results got worse and worse,
Speaker 1: I ended up punting late in the night and busting
Speaker 1: with a level to go. So today I will try
Speaker 1: to keep my head in the game and not punt
Speaker 1: and actually make day two of the event.
Speaker 2: That's good. Yes, it'd be funny if like every time
Speaker 2: you like win a coin flip, like Harris, this is
Speaker 2: a state and you're like, oh my cousin win, that
Speaker 2: would be a very funny. Can you win the tournament
Speaker 2: at like three forty five in the morning when they
Speaker 2: call Alaska for you?
Speaker 1: That? I mean, that would have been hilarious. That would
Speaker 1: have been the ultimate illusion of control.
Speaker 2: Study right, Oscar wild picture of Dorian Pray exactly exactly.
Speaker 1: Well, today I cannot be causing it because because it
Speaker 1: has already happened. But but yes, that would be that
Speaker 1: would be a very funny we should write, we should
Speaker 1: co author science fiction story like that night. Let's do it.
Speaker 1: And on that note, let's see how the Let's see
Speaker 1: how the next week goes, and hopefully by then we'll
Speaker 1: know where the House of Representative stands.
Speaker 2: Hopefully, but maybe not because we're relying a lot of anyway, Yeah,
Speaker 2: too long. It's a lot of racis in California to
Speaker 2: take forever to account. So maybe not next week. But
Speaker 2: but yes, we will speak again next week, and I
Speaker 2: hope that you'll join us.
Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach
Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot fm.
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondikova.
Speaker 2: And Bobby Nate Silver.
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.
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