WEBVTT - Polls, Prediction Markets, and How Trump Won

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Made Silver.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the morning of Wednesday, November sixth, So today we

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be talking about what happened yesterday, about

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<v Speaker 1>the US election, about pulling, what went right, what went wrong,

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<v Speaker 1>where we stand, the House race, the state of democracy,

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<v Speaker 1>what we have to look forward to. And Nate, I'd

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<v Speaker 1>like to kick us off by kind of asking you,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, why why are we here this morning taping

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<v Speaker 1>this podcast as opposed to the version of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris has won the presidency.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Look, I think Democrats faced a lot of uphill conditions.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean to start with around the world. We'll start

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<v Speaker 2>with three basic categories, actually, inflation, immigration, and Joe Biden.

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<v Speaker 2>If you had said in January twenty twenty one, when

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden was inaugurated, that we would have inflation hit

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<v Speaker 2>a peak of nine percent. I guess it was an

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<v Speaker 2>early twenty twenty two, then I think you would have

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<v Speaker 2>probably said, Okay, I understand why Biden might lose or

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<v Speaker 2>success or his successor might lose even to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Right when you have a global backlash to immigration to

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<v Speaker 2>the point where even famously immigrant friendly Canada Justin Trudeau,

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<v Speaker 2>who's very unpopular, is announcing cuts to legal immigration in

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<v Speaker 2>Canada country with frankly, plenty of space and plenty of

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<v Speaker 2>tolerance for immigrants. Then you have a substantial rise in

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<v Speaker 2>unwonted arrivals on the southern border, and that can be

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<v Speaker 2>an issue. And Joe Biden decided he wanted to be

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<v Speaker 2>president until he was eighty six, a terrible idea from

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<v Speaker 2>the start, which culminated in an embarrassing spectacle of a

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<v Speaker 2>debate in which, you know, frankly, I became worried that

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<v Speaker 2>the president of the United States was not capable of

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<v Speaker 2>carrying out his duties. And that had been a fact

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<v Speaker 2>that was denied by lots of people who were Democratic

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<v Speaker 2>partisans who couldn't because these things are all quite obvious. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm very pro immigrant. I'm probably not as bothered by

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<v Speaker 2>that as some other people, But like inflation is just

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<v Speaker 2>an empirical fact that you see every time you go

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<v Speaker 2>to the grocery store or drive past the gas station. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>and the fact that Biden was old and infirm mentally

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<v Speaker 2>potentially or at least came across that way. Maybe coincidentally,

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<v Speaker 2>he was extremely lucive and sober in private moments, but

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<v Speaker 2>every time he appeared in public, every other time he wasn't.

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<v Speaker 2>So these conditions plus the fact that we have lots

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<v Speaker 2>of empirical evidence that, like globally, it's been a really

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<v Speaker 2>have time for incumbents, you know, and the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats message was a little bit tired the third time

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<v Speaker 2>that people say vote for us or the country gets it.

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<v Speaker 2>Democracy ends, people stop believing it, even if there's more

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<v Speaker 2>than a grain of truth in it. I mean, I

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<v Speaker 2>think we're gonna have Actually when I irony is that, like

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that this election was not particularly close means

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<v Speaker 2>that we're not going to have a contested election. I

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<v Speaker 2>guess Harris took a while frankly to concede. But this

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<v Speaker 2>is Trump's last election, presumably Democrats is it, Well, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know. I think there is some how to put this.

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<v Speaker 2>If Trump's gonna win, conditional on that, I think there

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<v Speaker 2>is some good in it being a relatively decisive, undisputed

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<v Speaker 2>win where he'll probably also win the popular vie vote,

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<v Speaker 2>and then in four years he'll be gone and in

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<v Speaker 2>two years we'll have a midterm where Democrats they might

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<v Speaker 2>win the House this year still, but they'll be in

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<v Speaker 2>a strong position against I'm sure a Trump who has

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<v Speaker 2>overreached and will be very unpopular to retake the House.

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<v Speaker 2>The Senate's a longer shot. They'll but they're going to

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<v Speaker 2>have to have a real reconciliation. It's not the marginal

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<v Speaker 2>stuff that matters. And you know, maybe it will make

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<v Speaker 2>Trump a little more content and more trying. Now I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not kidding, howy, maybe more trying to govern. For the

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<v Speaker 2>plurality of a popular vote, he's going to win. He

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<v Speaker 2>may even win a majority. We should say, there's a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of voteleft in California, in places like that, so

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's out of the question that Harris

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<v Speaker 2>can win the popular vote. But it could also be

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<v Speaker 2>Trump plus two or something like that.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'm gonna I want to add a few factors

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<v Speaker 1>to why I think Harris lost. But I also want

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<v Speaker 1>to push back a little bit on the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>he's going to be happy and will tone down and

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<v Speaker 1>become more moderate, because, frankly, from a psychological standpoint, what

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<v Speaker 1>we know about Donald Trump, what we know about the

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<v Speaker 1>personalities of people who are cult leaders who are kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the source of strongman that he is and that

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<v Speaker 1>he has just openly said he is, and the source

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<v Speaker 1>of people he admires. He loves power, he loves himself,

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<v Speaker 1>and he loves his cult, and he loves kind of

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<v Speaker 1>his adoring fans, and he loves saying outlandas shit like

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<v Speaker 1>he gets off on it. You know, I don't see him.

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<v Speaker 1>I hope I'm wrong, by the way, Like I don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be right here, but I don't see him

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<v Speaker 1>toning down. I don't see him moderating. He has flat

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<v Speaker 1>out said that he is going to basically operate as

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<v Speaker 1>close to a dictatorship as he wants. That he wants to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, jail his enemies and do this and do that.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think we'd be well served to actually listen

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<v Speaker 1>to the words coming out of his mouth, because he

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<v Speaker 1>is telling us exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>What he wants to. It's a cult that currently according

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<v Speaker 2>to the York Time I'm on the vote of fifty

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<v Speaker 2>one person.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, well, that's the way cults work, you know, that's.

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<v Speaker 2>Not it's not a cult. I mean, I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>something in place in the definition of a cult that

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<v Speaker 2>it's so let's Okay, energized minority.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's let's let's go back and call it con

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<v Speaker 1>artist and people who are in the in the thralls

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<v Speaker 1>of a con artist as opposed to saying cult. What

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to say is that when it's basically a

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<v Speaker 1>movement founded on one person and on people believing in

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<v Speaker 1>the personality of that one person and kind of being

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<v Speaker 1>not caring as much about a lot of other things,

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<v Speaker 1>as kind of the fact that this is a charismatic leader.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the way, I've never met Trump, but I'm

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<v Speaker 1>willing to bet that he's incredibly charismatic and he has

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of kind of intuitive appeal if you if

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<v Speaker 1>you spend time with him, because otherwise this is like

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult to understand. I'm sure he has magnetic energy

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<v Speaker 1>and that you know that that's kind of part of

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<v Speaker 1>all of this. But what I wanted to what I

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<v Speaker 1>also wanted to say was in terms of kind of

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<v Speaker 1>why he won, I think all of the reasons that

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<v Speaker 1>you stated are absolutely spot on, and I would just

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<v Speaker 1>add to that that I wouldn't underestimate how much people

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<v Speaker 1>hate women like I actually think that this is part

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<v Speaker 1>of it. This is why part of the reason why

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<v Speaker 1>Hillary Clinton lost in twenty sixteen, and one of the

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<v Speaker 1>reasons why this is kind of the you know, when

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<v Speaker 1>you were saying that Biden is shoulders a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>blame for not stepping aside earlier, Like he put us

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<v Speaker 1>in a position where he put us, he put the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party in a position where Kamala Harris was kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the only choice. And I think it was a

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<v Speaker 1>really bad mistake to run a female against Trump a

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<v Speaker 1>second time. And I think that people underestimate how much

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<v Speaker 1>that mattered. I don't think Biden would have won, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, like I think you mightn't absolutely needed to go,

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<v Speaker 1>but he needed to go sooner so that we could

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<v Speaker 1>have had a primary and so that there were choices

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<v Speaker 1>other than Kamala Harris. Because psychologically speaking, I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was a horrible mistake to run a female candidate against

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Look as the guy in the pairing, I worry that

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats will internalize that message too much and now it

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<v Speaker 2>becomes a thing that you know, are they not going

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<v Speaker 2>to nominate a women for president in the next thirty years?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I don't know if.

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<v Speaker 1>No, that's not that's not what I'm that's not what

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to say.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yes, Democrats, that's not.

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<v Speaker 1>What I'm telling you.

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<v Speaker 2>You have Trump woulding currently Michigan has not been called

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<v Speaker 2>probably a one point win, and neighboring Wisconsin one point win,

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<v Speaker 2>and somewhat neighboring Pennsylvania three points, probably closed to two

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<v Speaker 2>points with late reported vote. Should have picked Shapiro, but

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't the factor that mattered. Yeah, I don't know. Does

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<v Speaker 2>a Whitmer Shapiro ticket that throws Biden under the bus win? Maybe?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I have no idea. Look, I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think Harris was. She didn't really have a message, she

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<v Speaker 2>didn't really have a second act. She had this period

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<v Speaker 2>that got Democrats very excited. And it's very weird because

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<v Speaker 2>like conservatives are not good at coming up with the

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<v Speaker 2>strongest intellectual hygiene version of their argument, right, they'll say

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<v Speaker 2>things that are in the wrong way, the unapproved way.

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<v Speaker 2>I just think if you believe in democracy, you have

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<v Speaker 2>to have some respect for the fact that fifty one

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<v Speaker 2>percent of Americans probably call the fifty ish forty nine

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<v Speaker 2>point seven ish or something voted for Donald Trump. Including

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, where we live, Uh, you live part time,

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<v Speaker 2>I live mostly full time enough. I have to pay

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<v Speaker 2>New York City taxes in New York City, where they

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<v Speaker 2>were huge cans. I mean working on an article on

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<v Speaker 2>this this morning in Queens. Yeah, Queen's New York. Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump got thirty eight percent of the vote. It's double

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<v Speaker 2>what he got in twenty two he got nineteen point

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<v Speaker 2>nine percent. I mean no, I.

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<v Speaker 1>Think I think you're absolutely right. We cannot we can't

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<v Speaker 1>just put that aside. And by the way, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that Democrats are also to blame. I think that they

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<v Speaker 1>did lose votes from like the very woke Democrats who

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<v Speaker 1>are like we, you know, we refuse to support Kamala Harris,

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<v Speaker 1>like the holier than now Liberals who are like, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>because of her stance on Gaza, we will not be

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<v Speaker 1>voting for her. They are absolutely to blame as well.

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<v Speaker 1>And I hope that they understand that because I think

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<v Speaker 1>that some of the vote, you know, you've got the

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<v Speaker 1>Hispanic men, like that's you know, the the immigration, the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>very real issues that they don't understand that. I think

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<v Speaker 1>Democrats might actually be better for them than Republicans. But

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<v Speaker 1>then you also have you know, within the Democratic Party,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there were major missteps as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. About one point five percent of the vote collectively

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<v Speaker 2>goes to all third party candidates, which is low actually

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<v Speaker 2>by recent standards. Look, I do think low key that

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<v Speaker 2>this was a hidden factor that hurt Harris. You didn't

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<v Speaker 2>really have a right leaning I mean, you know, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't particularly consider libertarian candidates right leaning, but you didn't

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<v Speaker 2>have like a Pappy Cannon type. You did have Jill Stein.

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<v Speaker 2>You also had Kennedy endorsed Trump, and that kind of

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<v Speaker 2>coincided with a a rough period for Harris. And the

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<v Speaker 2>polls actually where she had her convention, things looked on

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<v Speaker 2>the up and up and then and then doesn't get

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<v Speaker 2>that much press coverage, but Kennedy endorses Trump, and and

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, all of a sudden, Harris is pulling

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<v Speaker 2>worse than she had before the convention. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>if that makes it a point, it probably isn't. No

0:11:30.964 --> 0:11:33.444
<v Speaker 2>one point election probably comes down to needing a two

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<v Speaker 2>point ish swing. But I guess, I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 2>we've had this kind of difference in perspectives before. But

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<v Speaker 2>like I am more willing to tolerate or credit like

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<v Speaker 2>an inarticulate or poorly articulated moral feeling you know what

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<v Speaker 2>I mean. I that Like, I mean, I don't get

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<v Speaker 2>excised about like immigration and s but like it's the

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<v Speaker 2>notion that like things shifted far to the left and

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<v Speaker 2>that elites like you and I got a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>drunk on their power, right, I mean, you know, one

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<v Speaker 2>thing it wasn't wasn't one of the twenty most important

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<v Speaker 2>factors in the election. But like, you know, like the

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<v Speaker 2>student lone relief bill benefits basically wealthy people, including a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of like law school graduates and things like that,

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<v Speaker 2>instead of like the working class right literally benefits only

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<v Speaker 2>people who went to college. And that's Democrats attempt at

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<v Speaker 2>like populism in that country where most people don't go

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<v Speaker 2>to college. And by the way, more women than men

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<v Speaker 2>go to college. And this was an election where kind

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<v Speaker 2>of revenge of the men. I agree about that part,

0:12:44.964 --> 0:12:48.644
<v Speaker 2>and like, and I don't know, I mean it's a

0:12:48.804 --> 0:12:52.124
<v Speaker 2>stale critique, but the notion that like kind of liberals

0:12:52.204 --> 0:12:54.724
<v Speaker 2>are living in a bubble and that they're kind of

0:12:55.204 --> 0:12:57.404
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, I you know, obviously if you followed

0:12:57.444 --> 0:13:01.444
<v Speaker 2>my work, like I kind of became disillusioned with the

0:13:01.444 --> 0:13:04.884
<v Speaker 2>way that I thought expertise was weaponized for political purposes

0:13:05.004 --> 0:13:09.244
<v Speaker 2>during COVID, and that a lot of what passed republic

0:13:09.244 --> 0:13:13.284
<v Speaker 2>Health advice was just like trying to say Orange Man

0:13:13.364 --> 0:13:18.284
<v Speaker 2>bad Or or declare which team you're on. And I

0:13:18.284 --> 0:13:20.804
<v Speaker 2>don't know. And I voted for Harris. I voted for Harris,

0:13:20.804 --> 0:13:22.844
<v Speaker 2>like I said on the earlier show, on the Working

0:13:22.924 --> 0:13:26.204
<v Speaker 2>Family's line is just a little minor protest to constitute

0:13:26.204 --> 0:13:29.324
<v Speaker 2>party system. So this is not the outcome I wanted.

0:13:29.924 --> 0:13:34.964
<v Speaker 2>But like, I understand why people voted for Trump, and

0:13:34.964 --> 0:13:41.484
<v Speaker 2>I don't buy the notion that the only reason was

0:13:41.524 --> 0:13:44.284
<v Speaker 2>because that the will was pulled over their eyes. I mean,

0:13:44.404 --> 0:13:47.084
<v Speaker 2>maybe it was about Trump in particular, right, Like I

0:13:47.124 --> 0:13:48.884
<v Speaker 2>agree with the part that, like he will not deliver

0:13:50.604 --> 0:13:52.484
<v Speaker 2>on some of the things he promises. I mean, even

0:13:52.484 --> 0:13:56.604
<v Speaker 2>on economic growth. I think tariffs are very damaging. And

0:13:56.604 --> 0:14:00.244
<v Speaker 2>and you know, Elon Musk going on Joe Rogan and

0:14:00.284 --> 0:14:01.764
<v Speaker 2>saying it will be the less election of Trump. I mean,

0:14:01.844 --> 0:14:05.084
<v Speaker 2>just that's fucking gross, right, there's no kind of warrant

0:14:05.684 --> 0:14:09.524
<v Speaker 2>to that claim, and Trump's disrespect for the rule of

0:14:09.644 --> 0:14:13.204
<v Speaker 2>law and January sixth, But like, but like you know,

0:14:13.284 --> 0:14:19.124
<v Speaker 2>I mean a friend of the podcast, Jeff Mauer, who

0:14:19.164 --> 0:14:21.044
<v Speaker 2>writes a block. He's like, it's not quite the boy

0:14:21.084 --> 0:14:27.004
<v Speaker 2>who called wolf, because Trump is a wolf, but it's

0:14:27.044 --> 0:14:30.124
<v Speaker 2>people seeing everything is a wolf, and maybe just focusing

0:14:30.164 --> 0:14:32.724
<v Speaker 2>on the the one wolf, the really bad thing that

0:14:32.764 --> 0:14:36.244
<v Speaker 2>wolf did you know? January sixth And the cronyism, which,

0:14:36.284 --> 0:14:40.004
<v Speaker 2>by the way, I mean, Harris played it about and

0:14:40.044 --> 0:14:42.244
<v Speaker 2>Democrats played it about as badly as you can when

0:14:42.284 --> 0:14:45.604
<v Speaker 2>it comes to like like if you're going to have

0:14:45.764 --> 0:14:49.764
<v Speaker 2>the richest man in the world turn against you, and

0:14:49.844 --> 0:14:52.284
<v Speaker 2>you know, maybe Elon benefited Trump in various ways, maybe not,

0:14:52.444 --> 0:14:54.124
<v Speaker 2>we can debate that. Then at least do some fucking

0:14:54.124 --> 0:14:55.604
<v Speaker 2>populist shit, you know what I mean, or at least

0:14:55.644 --> 0:14:58.084
<v Speaker 2>say that like all these Silicon Valley and they kind

0:14:58.124 --> 0:15:00.164
<v Speaker 2>of just played it in a very in a very

0:15:00.204 --> 0:15:03.844
<v Speaker 2>weird way where they seem to regret like offending Silicon Valley,

0:15:04.684 --> 0:15:06.244
<v Speaker 2>but they didn't take advantage of the fact that, like

0:15:06.644 --> 0:15:08.844
<v Speaker 2>Silicon Valley is not very popular, Elon Musk is more

0:15:08.884 --> 0:15:13.004
<v Speaker 2>popular than the average Lolicon Valley magnate. But like, but

0:15:13.164 --> 0:15:17.804
<v Speaker 2>the message of they retreated to the Biden message that

0:15:17.844 --> 0:15:20.924
<v Speaker 2>had been losing the whole time, and like they're gonna

0:15:20.964 --> 0:15:22.684
<v Speaker 2>lose popular wrote by one point set of four points,

0:15:22.724 --> 0:15:25.364
<v Speaker 2>because like that's the penalty for being eighty one years old.

0:15:25.684 --> 0:15:30.644
<v Speaker 2>But I don't know, I don't quite I don't quite

0:15:31.244 --> 0:15:33.284
<v Speaker 2>get what they thought was happening.

0:15:34.084 --> 0:15:35.684
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, no, I mean I think that what you just

0:15:35.724 --> 0:15:38.884
<v Speaker 1>said was what kind of what I meant about? Like

0:15:39.084 --> 0:15:42.764
<v Speaker 1>not even though Kamala Harris was running on vibes early

0:15:42.804 --> 0:15:45.084
<v Speaker 1>on about not quite getting kind of what you need

0:15:45.124 --> 0:15:47.724
<v Speaker 1>to do with with social media and the kinds of

0:15:47.804 --> 0:15:49.804
<v Speaker 1>pointed messages that you need to get across, which the

0:15:49.844 --> 0:15:52.684
<v Speaker 1>Republicans did incredibly well, right, they didn't attack that, like

0:15:52.724 --> 0:15:55.444
<v Speaker 1>they didn't take those shots that I think they should

0:15:55.484 --> 0:15:58.364
<v Speaker 1>have taken that would have resonated a little bit more.

0:15:58.564 --> 0:16:01.164
<v Speaker 1>And so I think that, you know, I don't disagree

0:16:01.164 --> 0:16:04.244
<v Speaker 1>with you that there are very real issues that Democrats

0:16:04.284 --> 0:16:08.004
<v Speaker 1>need to address right about you know, the discontent and

0:16:08.124 --> 0:16:13.364
<v Speaker 1>why I think that where we So I still fully

0:16:13.444 --> 0:16:15.964
<v Speaker 1>maintain that there is will pulled over people's eyes and

0:16:15.964 --> 0:16:19.084
<v Speaker 1>that Donald Trump is a con artist because he's not

0:16:19.164 --> 0:16:21.444
<v Speaker 1>going to deliver on what he says. But I think

0:16:21.484 --> 0:16:23.324
<v Speaker 1>that we need to figure out, you know, why were

0:16:23.324 --> 0:16:26.924
<v Speaker 1>they susceptible? Right? Why are people susceptible? To con artists,

0:16:27.204 --> 0:16:34.004
<v Speaker 1>and you're become more susceptible when there's transitions, social change, uncertainty,

0:16:34.684 --> 0:16:37.604
<v Speaker 1>where bad things are happening to you, where bad shit's

0:16:37.604 --> 0:16:40.844
<v Speaker 1>going down right, where you're losing money, bad economic times,

0:16:41.164 --> 0:16:44.404
<v Speaker 1>all of these things existential threats. That's when con artists

0:16:44.404 --> 0:16:46.684
<v Speaker 1>can sweep in. And I think that that's kind of

0:16:47.244 --> 0:16:50.044
<v Speaker 1>that's the thing that ties what you're saying, Nate, to

0:16:50.084 --> 0:16:52.564
<v Speaker 1>what I'm saying, right. I think that Democrats have been

0:16:52.604 --> 0:16:54.844
<v Speaker 1>ignoring a lot of those reasons for too long. Right,

0:16:54.884 --> 0:16:58.004
<v Speaker 1>Why was over half of the population susceptible to this message?

0:16:58.084 --> 0:17:01.204
<v Speaker 1>And those are very real issues that you know, make

0:17:01.284 --> 0:17:06.084
<v Speaker 1>people psychologically susceptible to charismatic leaders right to people who

0:17:06.124 --> 0:17:09.804
<v Speaker 1>can really kind of galvanize those feelings of discos tend

0:17:10.044 --> 0:17:11.844
<v Speaker 1>and then sell them the version of the world that

0:17:11.884 --> 0:17:15.204
<v Speaker 1>they want to see, right, a version where they are empowered,

0:17:15.244 --> 0:17:17.564
<v Speaker 1>where they get their own back, where they become kind

0:17:17.564 --> 0:17:20.684
<v Speaker 1>of the protagonists again instead of people who feel like

0:17:20.724 --> 0:17:23.324
<v Speaker 1>they're marginalized. And I think that that's the dynamic that

0:17:23.364 --> 0:17:26.044
<v Speaker 1>we see happening. So I think that that kind of

0:17:26.044 --> 0:17:28.204
<v Speaker 1>squares the things that you and I are talking about,

0:17:28.444 --> 0:17:31.124
<v Speaker 1>would kind would you agree with that way of looking

0:17:31.124 --> 0:17:33.284
<v Speaker 1>at it.

0:17:33.644 --> 0:17:37.204
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, look, I guess I'm having trouble articulating.

0:17:37.724 --> 0:17:39.924
<v Speaker 1>It's like, it's okay, we haven't said much.

0:17:40.764 --> 0:17:44.244
<v Speaker 2>A better version of Trump would have a very good

0:17:44.324 --> 0:17:48.284
<v Speaker 2>argument that Biden Harris should be voted out of office

0:17:48.444 --> 0:17:53.964
<v Speaker 2>right now. Trump like makes the wrong version of that argument,

0:17:54.844 --> 0:18:00.124
<v Speaker 2>which kind of happens to be more successful because it's

0:18:00.164 --> 0:18:05.964
<v Speaker 2>a populous version. I don't know, I mean, look all right,

0:18:06.044 --> 0:18:08.324
<v Speaker 2>all right, well a notion that like, I mean, look again,

0:18:08.324 --> 0:18:10.484
<v Speaker 2>I think the popular vote thing is a big deal.

0:18:10.804 --> 0:18:13.204
<v Speaker 1>Fact like Trump huge.

0:18:12.964 --> 0:18:15.164
<v Speaker 2>Gains according to both the exit polls, which are not

0:18:15.404 --> 0:18:22.124
<v Speaker 2>reliable and just ecological data among Hispanic voters, and I

0:18:22.164 --> 0:18:27.044
<v Speaker 2>think also among Asian American voters, and probably actually lesser

0:18:27.084 --> 0:18:29.804
<v Speaker 2>among Black voters. It seems to have been a little

0:18:29.804 --> 0:18:34.244
<v Speaker 2>overbaked in the polls. But you know, the fastest growing

0:18:34.284 --> 0:18:37.844
<v Speaker 2>populations in the US are are Hispanic, Asian and quote

0:18:37.884 --> 0:18:41.084
<v Speaker 2>unquote other or mixed, and those are the populations where

0:18:41.084 --> 0:18:43.804
<v Speaker 2>it looks like Trump gained the most ground. I mean,

0:18:43.804 --> 0:18:48.804
<v Speaker 2>I can't like help but see some irony in the

0:18:48.844 --> 0:18:50.204
<v Speaker 2>fact that like a now i' when it's not like

0:18:50.244 --> 0:18:53.204
<v Speaker 2>a fucking conservative podcast for thirty seconds. Right, But like

0:18:53.244 --> 0:18:57.924
<v Speaker 2>the Democrats like hyper attention on racial identity, it's most

0:18:57.964 --> 0:19:00.964
<v Speaker 2>like white people, you know. And it's like, I think

0:19:01.004 --> 0:19:06.764
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people who are not like white, super

0:19:06.764 --> 0:19:08.964
<v Speaker 2>college educated people think like this is just weird, right,

0:19:09.004 --> 0:19:11.604
<v Speaker 2>why are they so obsessed with this shit? And actually,

0:19:11.604 --> 0:19:16.524
<v Speaker 2>we want to integrate, right, We want to integrate into society.

0:19:17.364 --> 0:19:20.004
<v Speaker 2>Maybe we're first generation or second generation or whatever, right,

0:19:20.044 --> 0:19:22.724
<v Speaker 2>and we don't want to like be cordoned off into

0:19:22.804 --> 0:19:25.764
<v Speaker 2>like racial identity groups. And it's just it's just it's

0:19:25.964 --> 0:19:29.724
<v Speaker 2>has to be one of the most electorally unappealing messages

0:19:30.644 --> 0:19:35.124
<v Speaker 2>in the history of the United States, because like it's

0:19:35.164 --> 0:19:37.404
<v Speaker 2>not it's not the majority, right, it's one thing. It's

0:19:37.404 --> 0:19:39.484
<v Speaker 2>a majority, and you demonize the minority. Right, But like

0:19:40.564 --> 0:19:43.844
<v Speaker 2>woke white people or woke any people are a pretty

0:19:43.844 --> 0:19:45.844
<v Speaker 2>small minority. And the fact that if you're not on

0:19:45.964 --> 0:19:49.284
<v Speaker 2>board with their entire agenda, if you're or if you're

0:19:49.324 --> 0:19:52.604
<v Speaker 2>like me on on the COVIDT you're like, yeah, vaccine's good.

0:19:52.684 --> 0:19:56.804
<v Speaker 2>Lockdowns went too far, Masks, we can you know, probably

0:19:57.444 --> 0:19:59.204
<v Speaker 2>minor either way, do what you want to do, right,

0:19:59.284 --> 0:20:01.844
<v Speaker 2>Like the fact that you're seeing as a fucking heretic

0:20:01.964 --> 0:20:05.324
<v Speaker 2>for like stating in this majority position, most people felt

0:20:05.324 --> 0:20:09.964
<v Speaker 2>like vaccines good. Uh, lockdowns went too far, masks do

0:20:10.084 --> 0:20:11.924
<v Speaker 2>it to be polite? Probably doesn't matter that. I mean,

0:20:11.924 --> 0:20:15.004
<v Speaker 2>it's just I don't know. I mean, you're you can't

0:20:15.044 --> 0:20:16.724
<v Speaker 2>have a message that says if you're not in this

0:20:16.804 --> 0:20:19.164
<v Speaker 2>narrow circle on all people. And Trump was the one

0:20:19.204 --> 0:20:22.444
<v Speaker 2>who went on these weird fucking bro podcasts and went

0:20:22.884 --> 0:20:25.044
<v Speaker 2>and tried to get votes that weren't his and tried

0:20:25.044 --> 0:20:27.524
<v Speaker 2>to get the crypto people and did a you know,

0:20:27.644 --> 0:20:29.644
<v Speaker 2>rally with MODI was at in twenty sixteen, right, and like,

0:20:29.684 --> 0:20:31.724
<v Speaker 2>I'm on your side Indian Americans. It's so crude, But

0:20:32.524 --> 0:20:36.684
<v Speaker 2>you don't actually get that from Democrats saying I'm on

0:20:36.724 --> 0:20:40.204
<v Speaker 2>your side, right, I'm fighting for you against the elie.

0:20:40.244 --> 0:20:41.684
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I guess because they are the elites. I

0:20:41.724 --> 0:20:44.484
<v Speaker 2>mean there's like that's a non hypocritical I mean it

0:20:44.484 --> 0:20:46.204
<v Speaker 2>is hypocritical. I'll take that time. I mean, because Trump

0:20:46.284 --> 0:20:49.244
<v Speaker 2>is an elite and it's always been just truly.

0:20:49.004 --> 0:20:51.564
<v Speaker 1>Is an elite, and he's going to be worse for

0:20:51.604 --> 0:20:54.724
<v Speaker 1>those people than democrass in a lot of ways, which

0:20:54.764 --> 0:20:57.604
<v Speaker 1>is the irony of all of this right, that he

0:20:57.884 --> 0:21:00.044
<v Speaker 1>is much better at appealing to them and at thinking

0:21:00.044 --> 0:21:02.284
<v Speaker 1>that he's going to be better for them, where at

0:21:02.284 --> 0:21:05.284
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, he really is not. And

0:21:05.484 --> 0:21:08.324
<v Speaker 1>I think that there there is a lot of evidence

0:21:08.364 --> 0:21:12.284
<v Speaker 1>for that. So it is ironic, but it's very true.

0:21:12.884 --> 0:21:15.764
<v Speaker 1>So this is where we are, and I think that

0:21:16.124 --> 0:21:18.084
<v Speaker 1>it is important to note this, and it's important to

0:21:18.324 --> 0:21:21.284
<v Speaker 1>try to understand why Democrats have lost so much of

0:21:21.284 --> 0:21:24.164
<v Speaker 1>the Hispanic but why they've lost some of the Asian vote,

0:21:24.164 --> 0:21:26.684
<v Speaker 1>why they're losing a lot of these votes that they

0:21:26.684 --> 0:21:30.284
<v Speaker 1>should be winning because theoretically they should be better for them.

0:21:30.524 --> 0:21:32.444
<v Speaker 1>And so I think this is just an issue for

0:21:32.884 --> 0:21:34.724
<v Speaker 1>two years down the line, four years down the line.

0:21:34.764 --> 0:21:36.604
<v Speaker 1>These are things that the party has to grapple with.

0:21:37.004 --> 0:21:40.604
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit about the polls and about

0:21:41.084 --> 0:21:44.484
<v Speaker 1>whether you think that Donald Trump was once again underestimated,

0:21:44.524 --> 0:21:47.284
<v Speaker 1>even though pollsters tried very very hard not to commit

0:21:47.324 --> 0:21:51.044
<v Speaker 1>that error. What do you think? And I'm also actually

0:21:51.084 --> 0:21:54.004
<v Speaker 1>quite curious about We talked about the Seltzer poll on Monday,

0:21:54.044 --> 0:21:57.644
<v Speaker 1>so I'm quite curious about your take on that as well.

0:21:58.524 --> 0:22:03.564
<v Speaker 2>So it's an oddly consistent it looks like polling air

0:22:03.724 --> 0:22:05.844
<v Speaker 2>of about two maybe two and a half points for

0:22:06.124 --> 0:22:08.004
<v Speaker 2>this stuff, you do want the precision of waiting till

0:22:08.044 --> 0:22:10.404
<v Speaker 2>everything is in. Right, if you take all the polls

0:22:10.404 --> 0:22:13.604
<v Speaker 2>and shift them over by two points two and a

0:22:13.644 --> 0:22:17.204
<v Speaker 2>half points toward Trump, then they were actually very accurate.

0:22:18.204 --> 0:22:20.924
<v Speaker 2>And you know, the average systematic polling here is like

0:22:21.284 --> 0:22:23.964
<v Speaker 2>three points basically, so like basically you had, like it's

0:22:24.084 --> 0:22:26.844
<v Speaker 2>very normal. And the thing is when you have like, uh,

0:22:27.444 --> 0:22:29.884
<v Speaker 2>things took close to fifty to fifty, then shifting everything

0:22:29.884 --> 0:22:32.684
<v Speaker 2>two and a half points to Trump goes from you know,

0:22:32.764 --> 0:22:35.204
<v Speaker 2>the swing states being split to Trump winning all seven,

0:22:35.204 --> 0:22:38.684
<v Speaker 2>which you probably will the other way. It's Harris Went's

0:22:38.684 --> 0:22:43.404
<v Speaker 2>all six. I mean, clearly it's a very tough cycle

0:22:43.484 --> 0:22:46.044
<v Speaker 2>for the and Seltzer style of we're just going to

0:22:46.124 --> 0:22:48.804
<v Speaker 2>trust the raw data and we're not going to do

0:22:48.804 --> 0:22:53.204
<v Speaker 2>a lot of waiting and a lot of turnout modeling. Right, Yeah, look,

0:22:53.204 --> 0:22:57.044
<v Speaker 2>it's the short version. Is like the idea that like

0:22:58.964 --> 0:23:00.644
<v Speaker 2>it was a bad election for polling is kind of

0:23:00.644 --> 0:23:02.164
<v Speaker 2>like wrong on the surface, but kind of true on

0:23:02.204 --> 0:23:05.444
<v Speaker 2>some deeper level. Right, the extent to which Poles had

0:23:05.484 --> 0:23:07.364
<v Speaker 2>an okay here by the metrics that you used to

0:23:07.404 --> 0:23:09.324
<v Speaker 2>officially judge them, and there were plenty of poles to

0:23:09.524 --> 0:23:12.924
<v Speaker 2>clear that showed a result exactly like this. Right, We're

0:23:12.964 --> 0:23:16.604
<v Speaker 2>not lacking impolsters, includinghigh quality posters who like had Trump

0:23:16.604 --> 0:23:20.044
<v Speaker 2>winning these swing states, had Trump even winning the popular vote.

0:23:20.044 --> 0:23:22.524
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the New York Times last poll had the

0:23:22.524 --> 0:23:24.604
<v Speaker 2>popular vote in Trump's hands. In the last NBC News

0:23:24.644 --> 0:23:27.084
<v Speaker 2>poll had the popular vote tied, which will be about right, right,

0:23:27.964 --> 0:23:29.484
<v Speaker 2>maybe it's a win for national poll but this is

0:23:29.484 --> 0:23:33.004
<v Speaker 2>actually not so far from the polls, but like it's

0:23:33.044 --> 0:23:34.724
<v Speaker 2>bad for the pure sense that we're gonna go out

0:23:34.764 --> 0:23:37.964
<v Speaker 2>and collect public opinion and and not do a lot

0:23:38.004 --> 0:23:42.164
<v Speaker 2>of waiting and massaging. And I don't know, I mean,

0:23:42.204 --> 0:23:43.764
<v Speaker 2>look at the end, I think there was a lot

0:23:43.804 --> 0:23:45.764
<v Speaker 2>of hurting in the polls and a lot of hedging,

0:23:45.764 --> 0:23:48.124
<v Speaker 2>and I think Antseelser still had a lot of guts

0:23:48.124 --> 0:23:50.964
<v Speaker 2>to like not second to that. And part of the

0:23:50.964 --> 0:23:54.924
<v Speaker 2>beauty of polling averages that you collected diversity of opinions.

0:23:54.964 --> 0:23:57.444
<v Speaker 2>But like, you know, it's what I worry about, and

0:23:57.484 --> 0:23:59.244
<v Speaker 2>a lot of things in society, including the polling, is

0:23:59.244 --> 0:24:03.644
<v Speaker 2>that like there's not really this kind of ground truth anymore.

0:24:03.764 --> 0:24:07.244
<v Speaker 2>Everyone is kind of indexing on everyone else, like and like,

0:24:08.884 --> 0:24:12.164
<v Speaker 2>what happened is that the modal outcome is that you

0:24:12.164 --> 0:24:15.724
<v Speaker 2>get closer to the mark, Like if Polsters had not hurted,

0:24:15.924 --> 0:24:18.644
<v Speaker 2>it would have been more of a surprise. But what

0:24:18.684 --> 0:24:20.804
<v Speaker 2>happens is that when something really big happens, I mean

0:24:20.844 --> 0:24:23.244
<v Speaker 2>in a statistical way, you get you don't get this

0:24:23.324 --> 0:24:28.004
<v Speaker 2>bell curve distribution that occurs from like normal statistical phenomenon

0:24:28.324 --> 0:24:32.804
<v Speaker 2>where you're taking a random sample of something right. Instead

0:24:32.964 --> 0:24:38.484
<v Speaker 2>you get a dispute with wide fat tails where actually,

0:24:38.564 --> 0:24:40.364
<v Speaker 2>most of time you kind of are pretty good, right,

0:24:40.404 --> 0:24:45.204
<v Speaker 2>but then there are catastrophic nonlinear misses and shifts every

0:24:45.204 --> 0:24:46.804
<v Speaker 2>now and then, and maybe the next shift will be

0:24:46.884 --> 0:24:50.124
<v Speaker 2>that the Gretchen Whitmer Jos Shapiro ticket, or maybe it

0:24:50.124 --> 0:24:52.964
<v Speaker 2>won't be something like that you know, is two points behind.

0:24:52.964 --> 0:24:54.604
<v Speaker 2>I know, the fuck that Giope no money will be

0:24:55.724 --> 0:24:57.684
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, Democrats are probably set up pretty good

0:24:57.724 --> 0:25:00.444
<v Speaker 2>for twenty twenty eight, you know, I mean, Trump will

0:25:00.444 --> 0:25:03.804
<v Speaker 2>probably be unpopular and probably overreach or worse in a

0:25:03.804 --> 0:25:08.724
<v Speaker 2>lot of ways, and it will be he's old, you know,

0:25:08.764 --> 0:25:10.964
<v Speaker 2>I mean, Democrats at a good bench and they'll have

0:25:10.964 --> 0:25:11.524
<v Speaker 2>a fresh start.

0:25:11.724 --> 0:25:14.564
<v Speaker 1>So just kind of to sum up you if you

0:25:14.604 --> 0:25:17.604
<v Speaker 1>were to give advice, I don't know if that's the

0:25:17.684 --> 0:25:19.364
<v Speaker 1>right way of phrasing it, But if you were to

0:25:19.524 --> 0:25:22.764
<v Speaker 1>kind of be thinking about polls two years, four years

0:25:22.804 --> 0:25:25.764
<v Speaker 1>down the line, do you think that anything needs to

0:25:25.844 --> 0:25:29.884
<v Speaker 1>change basically or do you think that you know, obviously

0:25:30.164 --> 0:25:32.004
<v Speaker 1>we did have the polls saying that this was going

0:25:32.044 --> 0:25:34.804
<v Speaker 1>to be an exceptionally close election. And even though it

0:25:34.804 --> 0:25:37.764
<v Speaker 1>looks like Trump is sweeping, he as you point out,

0:25:37.844 --> 0:25:41.244
<v Speaker 1>is sweeping by small percentages, right, So it is within

0:25:41.404 --> 0:25:44.124
<v Speaker 1>those polling errors. So do you think that the polls

0:25:44.164 --> 0:25:46.804
<v Speaker 1>should just posters should keep going as they've been going,

0:25:46.924 --> 0:25:49.444
<v Speaker 1>or do adjustments need to be made in kind of

0:25:49.524 --> 0:25:52.404
<v Speaker 1>the new climate to how we look at them?

0:25:52.484 --> 0:25:55.204
<v Speaker 2>How were types of adjustments? So you do have these

0:25:56.084 --> 0:26:00.444
<v Speaker 2>counterpoints of like, see these three elections where Trump runs,

0:26:00.484 --> 0:26:02.884
<v Speaker 2>presidential elections where Trump runs and beats his polls. The

0:26:02.884 --> 0:26:05.364
<v Speaker 2>biggest miss was actually twenty twenty, just that Biden is

0:26:05.404 --> 0:26:07.204
<v Speaker 2>such a big lead it didn't cost in the election,

0:26:07.764 --> 0:26:10.524
<v Speaker 2>and then twenty sixteen, and then and then this year's

0:26:10.564 --> 0:26:13.404
<v Speaker 2>the smallest miss. Probably we'll see the numbers once all

0:26:13.404 --> 0:26:17.964
<v Speaker 2>the paint is dry. I just think the techniques they're

0:26:18.004 --> 0:26:22.124
<v Speaker 2>applying like I want to see a fucking poll that

0:26:22.564 --> 0:26:24.684
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, Pretacher was always going to say Trump

0:26:24.724 --> 0:26:26.164
<v Speaker 2>plus one right or tie.

0:26:26.244 --> 0:26:26.444
<v Speaker 1>You know.

0:26:26.564 --> 0:26:31.044
<v Speaker 2>It's like it's like, can you find ways to like,

0:26:32.804 --> 0:26:35.364
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, not put a thumb on the scale,

0:26:35.404 --> 0:26:38.644
<v Speaker 2>but understand that like these classic methods aren't working but

0:26:38.644 --> 0:26:41.604
<v Speaker 2>actually still have like some semblance of like not just

0:26:41.724 --> 0:26:45.004
<v Speaker 2>artificial sweetener of like real content from like real people

0:26:45.044 --> 0:26:46.644
<v Speaker 2>and not just you know, I don't know. I mean,

0:26:46.924 --> 0:26:49.444
<v Speaker 2>I mean, there are elements of the story everywhere. There

0:26:49.484 --> 0:26:52.804
<v Speaker 2>are a lot of poles that did show Trump losing

0:26:52.844 --> 0:26:57.924
<v Speaker 2>ground among our gaining ground among Latino voters and among

0:26:57.924 --> 0:27:02.044
<v Speaker 2>blackboot Like why did the why was the Latino thing

0:27:02.324 --> 0:27:06.404
<v Speaker 2>underestimated but the black vote overestimated? You know, I think

0:27:06.444 --> 0:27:13.084
<v Speaker 2>in general, polsters and to also, you know, have more

0:27:13.084 --> 0:27:17.484
<v Speaker 2>consideration for people who are not black or white or Latino.

0:27:17.684 --> 0:27:20.284
<v Speaker 2>That's a growing segment of the population that's influential in

0:27:20.324 --> 0:27:24.684
<v Speaker 2>some states, and they get tossed into lumped into non

0:27:24.764 --> 0:27:26.844
<v Speaker 2>white or something, right, And you know, I mean that's

0:27:26.884 --> 0:27:28.444
<v Speaker 2>a little minor thing. I mean, I don't know. I mean,

0:27:28.644 --> 0:27:30.404
<v Speaker 2>you do have the fact that like in the elections,

0:27:30.444 --> 0:27:32.084
<v Speaker 2>when Trump has not been on the ballot. The polls

0:27:32.084 --> 0:27:33.604
<v Speaker 2>were fine, The Poles were pretty good in twenty eighteen

0:27:33.644 --> 0:27:36.204
<v Speaker 2>and twenty twenty two. They underestimate Democrats in twenty twelve,

0:27:36.284 --> 0:27:38.724
<v Speaker 2>and so I think Poles are going to be hoping

0:27:38.724 --> 0:27:41.764
<v Speaker 2>it was just a Trump thing. And look, eventually people

0:27:41.844 --> 0:27:46.604
<v Speaker 2>will move their methodologies enough where they will have some

0:27:46.644 --> 0:27:49.964
<v Speaker 2>cycle eventually where they underestimate Democrats. I don't know which

0:27:49.964 --> 0:27:56.004
<v Speaker 2>one it will be. Yeah, I mean, it's not great.

0:28:01.364 --> 0:28:10.524
<v Speaker 2>We'll be right back after this message.

0:28:16.444 --> 0:28:21.204
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm curious. The other kind of the other element

0:28:21.284 --> 0:28:24.644
<v Speaker 1>here is that you know, we've talked before about how

0:28:24.724 --> 0:28:28.204
<v Speaker 1>the prediction markets and poly market where your paid advisor

0:28:29.484 --> 0:28:34.124
<v Speaker 1>is was actually differing from from the polls for for

0:28:34.164 --> 0:28:36.724
<v Speaker 1>a while and then started converging back to the polls.

0:28:37.364 --> 0:28:40.204
<v Speaker 1>But you can make the argument that in some ways

0:28:40.244 --> 0:28:43.924
<v Speaker 1>they were more correct right than the polls. Yeah, I know.

0:28:44.884 --> 0:28:46.564
<v Speaker 1>Or do you think that was a fluke by that

0:28:46.964 --> 0:28:49.364
<v Speaker 1>French French oil you know.

0:28:49.484 --> 0:28:53.044
<v Speaker 2>I mean the prediction markets kind of they're always more

0:28:53.044 --> 0:28:56.524
<v Speaker 2>republican than the models are, and when Republicans win, they

0:28:56.564 --> 0:28:58.924
<v Speaker 2>look smart. Ironically. In twenty sixteen, Yeah, look at the

0:28:58.964 --> 0:29:01.404
<v Speaker 2>little data point in favor of them and good for

0:29:01.444 --> 0:29:03.564
<v Speaker 2>my poly market equity, I guess, but like I mean,

0:29:03.604 --> 0:29:09.924
<v Speaker 2>I don't, I don't, I don't know. I think you

0:29:09.924 --> 0:29:13.644
<v Speaker 2>have elections every four years, and eighty percent of people

0:29:13.684 --> 0:29:15.404
<v Speaker 2>just bet on better blue every time, and they can

0:29:15.484 --> 0:29:17.804
<v Speaker 2>kind of construct narratives or they look smart when they

0:29:18.444 --> 0:29:22.764
<v Speaker 2>when they do. You know, look, I mean it is

0:29:22.764 --> 0:29:26.124
<v Speaker 2>also true that if poles become less reliable, then it's

0:29:26.124 --> 0:29:28.404
<v Speaker 2>not that your gut becomes more reliable, but it's that

0:29:29.684 --> 0:29:32.684
<v Speaker 2>it becomes more reliable relative to a declining indicator. You

0:29:32.684 --> 0:29:36.284
<v Speaker 2>know what I mean, because an arguments. It's never quite

0:29:36.284 --> 0:29:38.844
<v Speaker 2>that like your gut tells you literally nothing. It's that

0:29:38.964 --> 0:29:43.324
<v Speaker 2>like you formerly have this kind of like scientific way

0:29:43.404 --> 0:29:48.004
<v Speaker 2>to do better than your gut and now maybe you know,

0:29:48.204 --> 0:29:50.644
<v Speaker 2>poles kind of reflect cut anyway, there's like not even

0:29:50.684 --> 0:29:54.404
<v Speaker 2>this like clear distinction about it. And you know, I

0:29:54.444 --> 0:29:56.684
<v Speaker 2>don't know, I don't know. I think it was I

0:29:56.724 --> 0:29:59.684
<v Speaker 2>think if you look at like the history, I think

0:30:00.524 --> 0:30:04.964
<v Speaker 2>prediction markets need a couple more good cycles. But I

0:30:04.964 --> 0:30:07.044
<v Speaker 2>mean they got they got Look give credit where it's

0:30:07.124 --> 0:30:11.324
<v Speaker 2>give credit where's due. The French whale's wealthier man today.

0:30:11.364 --> 0:30:14.924
<v Speaker 2>I hope he comes to the win Las Vegas and

0:30:14.964 --> 0:30:16.844
<v Speaker 2>December employees in some tournaments.

0:30:17.444 --> 0:30:20.764
<v Speaker 1>Yes, there's a there are some wonderful events. French Whale,

0:30:20.844 --> 0:30:24.044
<v Speaker 1>please please come and play. But I do I do

0:30:24.124 --> 0:30:27.884
<v Speaker 1>want to say that, you know, I always caution against

0:30:28.204 --> 0:30:31.324
<v Speaker 1>going with your quote unquote gut feeling because what we know,

0:30:31.484 --> 0:30:33.204
<v Speaker 1>and I just want to kind of put that out there,

0:30:33.284 --> 0:30:36.844
<v Speaker 1>is that humans are very very bad at distinguishing correct

0:30:36.884 --> 0:30:40.164
<v Speaker 1>from incorrect gut feelings. Right, we're equally certain that both

0:30:40.524 --> 0:30:43.244
<v Speaker 1>that both are good. We just we don't know which

0:30:43.284 --> 0:30:45.284
<v Speaker 1>are right and which are wrong. So the gut sometimes

0:30:45.284 --> 0:30:47.044
<v Speaker 1>tells us the right thing and sometimes the wrong thing,

0:30:47.084 --> 0:30:48.964
<v Speaker 1>but we just have no fucking clue. So I think

0:30:48.964 --> 0:30:51.404
<v Speaker 1>that that's really really important, which is why we need data,

0:30:51.644 --> 0:30:54.484
<v Speaker 1>which is why we need kind of these external sources

0:30:54.804 --> 0:30:57.204
<v Speaker 1>where you know, in a in a tie break, you

0:30:57.244 --> 0:30:59.844
<v Speaker 1>can kind of look at your gut, especially if it's

0:30:59.884 --> 0:31:01.964
<v Speaker 1>a thing where you're an expert in right, where you

0:31:02.044 --> 0:31:04.644
<v Speaker 1>might not have conscious access to why your gut is

0:31:04.724 --> 0:31:06.884
<v Speaker 1>saying something. But it's not actually a gut feeling, it's

0:31:06.964 --> 0:31:10.284
<v Speaker 1>just expertise, right, It's the fact that you have pattern recognition,

0:31:10.364 --> 0:31:12.684
<v Speaker 1>because this is something that you're very good at and

0:31:12.724 --> 0:31:16.484
<v Speaker 1>that you have correctly identified many many times before. Unfortunately,

0:31:16.484 --> 0:31:19.884
<v Speaker 1>the elections is absolutely not that, because we have, as

0:31:19.884 --> 0:31:22.684
<v Speaker 1>you say, an election every four years, we simply do

0:31:22.724 --> 0:31:25.604
<v Speaker 1>not have the experience, We don't have the feedback, and

0:31:25.684 --> 0:31:29.844
<v Speaker 1>so I would just I would very much caution against

0:31:29.924 --> 0:31:32.804
<v Speaker 1>kind of using your gut to try to come to pronouncements,

0:31:33.164 --> 0:31:36.324
<v Speaker 1>especially because when you're also in an emotional situation, your

0:31:36.324 --> 0:31:39.404
<v Speaker 1>gut tends to be much more incorrect, right because you

0:31:39.444 --> 0:31:41.764
<v Speaker 1>have there are things that are clouding your judgment, there

0:31:41.764 --> 0:31:44.204
<v Speaker 1>are things that are making you act in one way

0:31:44.284 --> 0:31:46.964
<v Speaker 1>or another. So I truly hope that we are able

0:31:47.004 --> 0:31:49.244
<v Speaker 1>to be in a situation where we have external data

0:31:50.004 --> 0:31:53.164
<v Speaker 1>ways that we can make sure that our polling, you know,

0:31:53.244 --> 0:31:56.724
<v Speaker 1>does not if it deteriorates, that it then becomes better again,

0:31:57.564 --> 0:32:00.684
<v Speaker 1>and that you know, things like prediction markets end up

0:32:00.724 --> 0:32:03.324
<v Speaker 1>being good. Even though I know, and you've written about

0:32:03.324 --> 0:32:08.164
<v Speaker 1>this extensively, that when it comes to big events like

0:32:08.764 --> 0:32:11.004
<v Speaker 1>you know, the elections or the super Bowl, the super

0:32:11.004 --> 0:32:14.724
<v Speaker 1>bowls that we have more frequently, prediction markets are obviously

0:32:15.204 --> 0:32:18.284
<v Speaker 1>not the same as when it's when you have less money, right,

0:32:18.364 --> 0:32:21.244
<v Speaker 1>less on money, less less emotional money on the line.

0:32:22.044 --> 0:32:24.964
<v Speaker 1>So I think that that's uh really important.

0:32:25.004 --> 0:32:28.444
<v Speaker 2>One thing, if you were following polymarket last night, if

0:32:28.444 --> 0:32:30.204
<v Speaker 2>you're following poly market last night, you knew a lot

0:32:30.244 --> 0:32:35.524
<v Speaker 2>sooner than Harris was gonna lose. I mean, you know,

0:32:35.564 --> 0:32:38.884
<v Speaker 2>at first, very early on, there were these counties in

0:32:38.964 --> 0:32:40.884
<v Speaker 2>Indiana and stuff that looked pretty good for her. But

0:32:40.924 --> 0:32:43.884
<v Speaker 2>that's because you had you had a lot of vote

0:32:44.044 --> 0:32:46.444
<v Speaker 2>that was early vote, and Democrats actually looks like did

0:32:46.444 --> 0:32:49.604
<v Speaker 2>do better in the early vote. And then you get

0:32:49.644 --> 0:32:51.564
<v Speaker 2>the election day vote and it gets a little redder,

0:32:51.564 --> 0:32:53.284
<v Speaker 2>and then it was kind of consistently every you know,

0:32:53.804 --> 0:32:55.724
<v Speaker 2>except I mean New York in California might actually have

0:32:55.844 --> 0:32:57.124
<v Speaker 2>more of a red shift. And then like there are

0:32:57.124 --> 0:32:59.164
<v Speaker 2>a few a few of the crunchy plays. You know,

0:32:59.404 --> 0:33:03.964
<v Speaker 2>main looks pretty good for Democrats. Colorado, right, the really

0:33:04.284 --> 0:33:07.204
<v Speaker 2>white states with a lot all of the Colorado was

0:33:07.244 --> 0:33:10.204
<v Speaker 2>a little bit more diverse. But like, yeah, I mean

0:33:10.204 --> 0:33:13.604
<v Speaker 2>there are these pockets, but like very few, very few pockets.

0:33:13.724 --> 0:33:16.564
<v Speaker 2>I mean kind of what happened is that, like I

0:33:16.604 --> 0:33:19.044
<v Speaker 2>don't know if Harris actually gained ground among white voters

0:33:19.084 --> 0:33:22.844
<v Speaker 2>like some poles said she would, she lost some ground.

0:33:22.844 --> 0:33:25.284
<v Speaker 2>Even over this, she saw some ground of bumble black voters.

0:33:25.324 --> 0:33:27.724
<v Speaker 2>Not that much, although if you look at Eckel, I mean,

0:33:27.724 --> 0:33:30.604
<v Speaker 2>look at the fucking Bronx. Let me look at the Bronx,

0:33:30.604 --> 0:33:35.164
<v Speaker 2>which is obviously Hispanic and black. Trump got twenty seven

0:33:35.204 --> 0:33:37.884
<v Speaker 2>percent of the vote in the Bronx. That's do you know?

0:33:37.924 --> 0:33:39.684
<v Speaker 2>How about you got in twenty twelve? Now I don't

0:33:39.804 --> 0:33:44.884
<v Speaker 2>eight percent. It's fucking tripled three point five x in

0:33:44.924 --> 0:33:45.684
<v Speaker 2>twelve years.

0:33:46.364 --> 0:33:48.484
<v Speaker 1>That's huge, and that's terrifying.

0:33:49.004 --> 0:33:50.844
<v Speaker 2>It was Romney and twenty twelve, she'd say, not a

0:33:50.884 --> 0:33:54.244
<v Speaker 2>Bronx guy, No, not at all. Trump got nine and

0:33:54.244 --> 0:33:55.484
<v Speaker 2>a half percent in twenty sixteen.

0:33:55.644 --> 0:33:59.964
<v Speaker 1>Still, still, this is still, this is huge, It is terrifying.

0:34:00.684 --> 0:34:04.324
<v Speaker 1>There's something worth consideration. Let's talk a little bit about

0:34:05.204 --> 0:34:09.604
<v Speaker 1>will Trump get the popular vote? I think there's there's

0:34:09.644 --> 0:34:12.844
<v Speaker 1>some indications that he will, but we obviously don't have

0:34:12.844 --> 0:34:16.924
<v Speaker 1>the numbers yet. This is morning on Wednesday the sixth.

0:34:17.444 --> 0:34:21.084
<v Speaker 1>Will what will happen in the House. I think that

0:34:21.124 --> 0:34:23.844
<v Speaker 1>these are things that are actually quite important for Trump's

0:34:23.844 --> 0:34:27.284
<v Speaker 1>mindset and for how he kind of sweeps into office

0:34:27.324 --> 0:34:30.884
<v Speaker 1>and what his first orders of business are going to be.

0:34:32.244 --> 0:34:37.324
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, look, elections have consequences. You know, as

0:34:37.324 --> 0:34:40.404
<v Speaker 2>far as the House goes, you have a lot of

0:34:40.484 --> 0:34:45.444
<v Speaker 2>races that are uncalled. The model's decision Desk HQ has

0:34:45.484 --> 0:34:49.404
<v Speaker 2>like a model that last night was showing actually Democrats

0:34:49.444 --> 0:34:51.324
<v Speaker 2>were favored to keep the House. That shifted GP. Now

0:34:51.364 --> 0:34:54.364
<v Speaker 2>the prediction markets have shifted GP. Now it's competitive. I mean,

0:34:54.364 --> 0:34:58.644
<v Speaker 2>but the kind of most likely scenario is this tenuous

0:34:58.724 --> 0:35:04.244
<v Speaker 2>GOP majority where it's Republican probably, I mean, I don't

0:35:04.244 --> 0:35:06.524
<v Speaker 2>know the exact numbers, right, but like, but the Freedom

0:35:06.564 --> 0:35:10.444
<v Speaker 2>Caucus we have a narrow GP majority. It's not very functional.

0:35:11.764 --> 0:35:13.404
<v Speaker 2>So that's a beat up point. The US House is

0:35:13.444 --> 0:35:17.044
<v Speaker 2>now where the action is in politics. Certainly if Democrats

0:35:17.044 --> 0:35:18.964
<v Speaker 2>win it, which is still a possibility, but like it's

0:35:19.044 --> 0:35:21.364
<v Speaker 2>you know, either that or like a relatively narrow Republican majority.

0:35:21.404 --> 0:35:25.524
<v Speaker 2>That's the range, like and like and if that happens

0:35:25.564 --> 0:35:30.084
<v Speaker 2>then then yeah, I mean that's where the action is.

0:35:30.124 --> 0:35:32.964
<v Speaker 2>The Senate is not going to be with probably fifty

0:35:33.004 --> 0:35:35.524
<v Speaker 2>three ish Republican senators, it's not going to be a

0:35:36.564 --> 0:35:40.804
<v Speaker 2>check on Trump's power appreciably, but the House in a

0:35:40.844 --> 0:35:43.244
<v Speaker 2>weird way might be. And then you have to think

0:35:43.284 --> 0:35:47.244
<v Speaker 2>Democrats are pretty clear favorites to take back the House

0:35:47.284 --> 0:35:48.244
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty six.

0:35:49.724 --> 0:35:52.844
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that would be nice, and I think and the

0:35:52.924 --> 0:35:55.804
<v Speaker 1>other part of it is obviously the judiciary, right and

0:35:55.844 --> 0:35:58.124
<v Speaker 1>all of the federal appointments that Trump is going to

0:35:58.124 --> 0:36:01.204
<v Speaker 1>be able to make, and potentially Supreme Court. I mean,

0:36:01.244 --> 0:36:04.484
<v Speaker 1>this is something that we've talked about before. I actually

0:36:04.564 --> 0:36:08.844
<v Speaker 1>think that it would be pretty dangerous, given what happened

0:36:08.924 --> 0:36:13.964
<v Speaker 1>with uh past appointments in the slam duck period, for

0:36:14.124 --> 0:36:17.044
<v Speaker 1>so Tamyr to try to retire now and try to

0:36:17.044 --> 0:36:19.604
<v Speaker 1>get Biden to replace her.

0:36:20.484 --> 0:36:21.124
<v Speaker 2>I think that.

0:36:20.964 --> 0:36:23.964
<v Speaker 1>That that might not go down very well. But I

0:36:23.964 --> 0:36:26.884
<v Speaker 1>think we're now in exactly the scenario that you and

0:36:26.924 --> 0:36:29.884
<v Speaker 1>I talked about where she wanted the first female president

0:36:29.884 --> 0:36:32.044
<v Speaker 1>to replace her, and now like there's a good chance

0:36:32.084 --> 0:36:34.644
<v Speaker 1>she's going to be replaced by Trump. So this is

0:36:34.684 --> 0:36:35.604
<v Speaker 1>kind of one of the other.

0:36:35.484 --> 0:36:37.964
<v Speaker 2>Consequences I got. I got a plan for you.

0:36:38.084 --> 0:36:39.084
<v Speaker 1>What's a plan for me?

0:36:40.564 --> 0:36:43.444
<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden appears on stage six PM and Kamala Harris's

0:36:43.444 --> 0:36:45.524
<v Speaker 2>concession speech and say I'm clearly not fucking fit to

0:36:45.524 --> 0:36:47.124
<v Speaker 2>be president twenty four to seven and there for Kamala

0:36:47.164 --> 0:36:50.924
<v Speaker 2>Harris now president until January twentieth and then she appoints

0:36:50.924 --> 0:36:52.404
<v Speaker 2>Clada my Or's replacement.

0:36:53.924 --> 0:36:57.284
<v Speaker 1>All right, well will that work? Okay, guys, listen to us.

0:36:57.684 --> 0:37:00.804
<v Speaker 1>This is something that this is something that who.

0:37:00.724 --> 0:37:02.444
<v Speaker 2>Do you think would make a better president? There's still crize.

0:37:02.444 --> 0:37:04.844
<v Speaker 2>It's still one two, three months, right, Like, I'd rather

0:37:04.884 --> 0:37:10.804
<v Speaker 2>have Kamala Harris president, absolutely, and maybe maybe you maybe

0:37:10.804 --> 0:37:12.804
<v Speaker 2>you create a little bit less stigma around the next

0:37:12.844 --> 0:37:14.604
<v Speaker 2>you tell me a female candidate, if you've had a woman.

0:37:14.884 --> 0:37:19.004
<v Speaker 1>That's actually a really interesting proposal. I like it, you know, so,

0:37:19.004 --> 0:37:20.404
<v Speaker 1>so I think that that would be a really good

0:37:20.484 --> 0:37:22.644
<v Speaker 1>call to action for for Biden. I know you said

0:37:22.644 --> 0:37:25.444
<v Speaker 1>that kind of tongue in cheek, Nate, but still like,

0:37:26.684 --> 0:37:29.964
<v Speaker 1>if Biden were to instate this first female president and

0:37:30.284 --> 0:37:32.324
<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris can actually get shit done in the next

0:37:32.324 --> 0:37:36.004
<v Speaker 1>three months, and I think that that would be a

0:37:36.044 --> 0:37:40.324
<v Speaker 1>really really interesting consideration and play for the Democratic Party.

0:37:41.324 --> 0:37:44.684
<v Speaker 1>So let's leave it at that, Biden, you know, why

0:37:44.724 --> 0:37:47.644
<v Speaker 1>don't you, why don't you step aside and let the

0:37:47.684 --> 0:37:51.724
<v Speaker 1>first woman be president? So sunny before before we leave, though,

0:37:51.964 --> 0:37:53.244
<v Speaker 1>what are you going to be doing for the rest

0:37:53.244 --> 0:37:53.644
<v Speaker 1>of the day.

0:37:55.964 --> 0:37:57.364
<v Speaker 2>You know, I got to write a blog post and

0:37:57.404 --> 0:37:59.884
<v Speaker 2>then I fucking free, fucking free, Mark, I can do

0:37:59.924 --> 0:38:02.284
<v Speaker 2>where the fuck I want for the first time in

0:38:02.404 --> 0:38:04.844
<v Speaker 2>like three hundred days because I have the book deadline,

0:38:04.844 --> 0:38:08.604
<v Speaker 2>and then yeah, yeah, i'd be free.

0:38:08.804 --> 0:38:13.684
<v Speaker 1>Here's racing your freedom date. I will also be drinking today,

0:38:14.484 --> 0:38:18.924
<v Speaker 1>and I will attempt once again to play poker, because

0:38:19.044 --> 0:38:22.324
<v Speaker 1>yesterday I was playing the NAP ten North American Poker's

0:38:22.284 --> 0:38:25.564
<v Speaker 1>Tour main event, and as the results got worse and worse,

0:38:25.684 --> 0:38:28.444
<v Speaker 1>I ended up punting late in the night and busting

0:38:28.524 --> 0:38:31.284
<v Speaker 1>with a level to go. So today I will try

0:38:31.284 --> 0:38:33.044
<v Speaker 1>to keep my head in the game and not punt

0:38:33.164 --> 0:38:35.084
<v Speaker 1>and actually make day two of the event.

0:38:37.124 --> 0:38:40.124
<v Speaker 2>That's good. Yes, it'd be funny if like every time

0:38:40.124 --> 0:38:42.724
<v Speaker 2>you like win a coin flip, like Harris, this is

0:38:42.724 --> 0:38:45.924
<v Speaker 2>a state and you're like, oh my cousin win, that

0:38:45.924 --> 0:38:47.884
<v Speaker 2>would be a very funny. Can you win the tournament

0:38:47.924 --> 0:38:50.444
<v Speaker 2>at like three forty five in the morning when they

0:38:50.484 --> 0:38:51.404
<v Speaker 2>call Alaska for you?

0:38:51.444 --> 0:38:53.284
<v Speaker 1>That? I mean, that would have been hilarious. That would

0:38:53.284 --> 0:38:55.204
<v Speaker 1>have been the ultimate illusion of control.

0:38:54.884 --> 0:38:59.324
<v Speaker 2>Study right, Oscar wild picture of Dorian Pray exactly exactly.

0:38:59.364 --> 0:39:02.564
<v Speaker 1>Well, today I cannot be causing it because because it

0:39:02.604 --> 0:39:05.684
<v Speaker 1>has already happened. But but yes, that would be that

0:39:05.724 --> 0:39:07.844
<v Speaker 1>would be a very funny we should write, we should

0:39:07.884 --> 0:39:10.684
<v Speaker 1>co author science fiction story like that night. Let's do it.

0:39:11.884 --> 0:39:14.724
<v Speaker 1>And on that note, let's see how the Let's see

0:39:14.764 --> 0:39:16.684
<v Speaker 1>how the next week goes, and hopefully by then we'll

0:39:16.724 --> 0:39:20.004
<v Speaker 1>know where the House of Representative stands.

0:39:21.564 --> 0:39:24.244
<v Speaker 2>Hopefully, but maybe not because we're relying a lot of anyway, Yeah,

0:39:24.284 --> 0:39:25.924
<v Speaker 2>too long. It's a lot of racis in California to

0:39:25.924 --> 0:39:28.364
<v Speaker 2>take forever to account. So maybe not next week. But

0:39:28.364 --> 0:39:30.924
<v Speaker 2>but yes, we will speak again next week, and I

0:39:30.924 --> 0:39:31.884
<v Speaker 2>hope that you'll join us.

0:39:38.004 --> 0:39:40.124
<v Speaker 1>Let us know what you think of the show. Reach

0:39:40.204 --> 0:39:45.684
<v Speaker 1>out to us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot fm.

0:39:45.764 --> 0:39:48.884
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondikova.

0:39:48.524 --> 0:39:49.884
<v Speaker 2>And Bobby Nate Silver.

0:39:50.604 --> 0:39:54.204
<v Speaker 1>The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

0:39:54.684 --> 0:39:58.244
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

0:39:58.284 --> 0:40:01.844
<v Speaker 1>is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

0:40:02.524 --> 0:40:04.684
<v Speaker 2>If you like the show, please rate and review us

0:40:04.684 --> 0:40:06.684
<v Speaker 2>so all the people can find us too. And if

0:40:06.724 --> 0:40:08.924
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0:40:09.004 --> 0:40:11.484
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0:40:11.524 --> 0:40:13.964
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0:40:14.004 --> 0:40:14.564
<v Speaker 2>for tuning in,