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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Made Silver.

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Speaker 1: It's the morning of Wednesday, November sixth, So today we

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Speaker 1: are going to be talking about what happened yesterday, about

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Speaker 1: the US election, about pulling, what went right, what went wrong,

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Speaker 1: where we stand, the House race, the state of democracy,

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Speaker 1: what we have to look forward to. And Nate, I'd

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Speaker 1: like to kick us off by kind of asking you,

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Speaker 1: you know, why why are we here this morning taping

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Speaker 1: this podcast as opposed to the version of you know,

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has won the presidency.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I think Democrats faced a lot of uphill conditions.

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Speaker 2: I mean to start with around the world. We'll start

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Speaker 2: with three basic categories, actually, inflation, immigration, and Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: If you had said in January twenty twenty one, when

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden was inaugurated, that we would have inflation hit

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Speaker 2: a peak of nine percent. I guess it was an

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Speaker 2: early twenty twenty two, then I think you would have

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Speaker 2: probably said, Okay, I understand why Biden might lose or

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Speaker 2: success or his successor might lose even to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Right when you have a global backlash to immigration to

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Speaker 2: the point where even famously immigrant friendly Canada Justin Trudeau,

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Speaker 2: who's very unpopular, is announcing cuts to legal immigration in

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Speaker 2: Canada country with frankly, plenty of space and plenty of

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Speaker 2: tolerance for immigrants. Then you have a substantial rise in

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Speaker 2: unwonted arrivals on the southern border, and that can be

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Speaker 2: an issue. And Joe Biden decided he wanted to be

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Speaker 2: president until he was eighty six, a terrible idea from

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Speaker 2: the start, which culminated in an embarrassing spectacle of a

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Speaker 2: debate in which, you know, frankly, I became worried that

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Speaker 2: the president of the United States was not capable of

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Speaker 2: carrying out his duties. And that had been a fact

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Speaker 2: that was denied by lots of people who were Democratic

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Speaker 2: partisans who couldn't because these things are all quite obvious. Right,

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Speaker 2: I'm very pro immigrant. I'm probably not as bothered by

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Speaker 2: that as some other people, But like inflation is just

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Speaker 2: an empirical fact that you see every time you go

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Speaker 2: to the grocery store or drive past the gas station. Right,

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Speaker 2: and the fact that Biden was old and infirm mentally

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Speaker 2: potentially or at least came across that way. Maybe coincidentally,

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Speaker 2: he was extremely lucive and sober in private moments, but

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Speaker 2: every time he appeared in public, every other time he wasn't.

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Speaker 2: So these conditions plus the fact that we have lots

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Speaker 2: of empirical evidence that, like globally, it's been a really

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Speaker 2: have time for incumbents, you know, and the fact that

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Speaker 2: Democrats message was a little bit tired the third time

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Speaker 2: that people say vote for us or the country gets it.

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Speaker 2: Democracy ends, people stop believing it, even if there's more

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Speaker 2: than a grain of truth in it. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think we're gonna have Actually when I irony is that, like

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Speaker 2: the fact that this election was not particularly close means

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Speaker 2: that we're not going to have a contested election. I

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Speaker 2: guess Harris took a while frankly to concede. But this

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Speaker 2: is Trump's last election, presumably Democrats is it, Well, I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I think there is some how to put this.

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Speaker 2: If Trump's gonna win, conditional on that, I think there

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Speaker 2: is some good in it being a relatively decisive, undisputed

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Speaker 2: win where he'll probably also win the popular vie vote,

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Speaker 2: and then in four years he'll be gone and in

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Speaker 2: two years we'll have a midterm where Democrats they might

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Speaker 2: win the House this year still, but they'll be in

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Speaker 2: a strong position against I'm sure a Trump who has

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Speaker 2: overreached and will be very unpopular to retake the House.

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Speaker 2: The Senate's a longer shot. They'll but they're going to

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Speaker 2: have to have a real reconciliation. It's not the marginal

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Speaker 2: stuff that matters. And you know, maybe it will make

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Speaker 2: Trump a little more content and more trying. Now I'm

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Speaker 2: not kidding, howy, maybe more trying to govern. For the

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Speaker 2: plurality of a popular vote, he's going to win. He

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Speaker 2: may even win a majority. We should say, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of voteleft in California, in places like that, so

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's out of the question that Harris

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Speaker 2: can win the popular vote. But it could also be

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Speaker 2: Trump plus two or something like that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I want to add a few factors

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Speaker 1: to why I think Harris lost. But I also want

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Speaker 1: to push back a little bit on the fact that

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Speaker 1: he's going to be happy and will tone down and

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Speaker 1: become more moderate, because, frankly, from a psychological standpoint, what

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Speaker 1: we know about Donald Trump, what we know about the

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Speaker 1: personalities of people who are cult leaders who are kind

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Speaker 1: of the source of strongman that he is and that

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Speaker 1: he has just openly said he is, and the source

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Speaker 1: of people he admires. He loves power, he loves himself,

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Speaker 1: and he loves his cult, and he loves kind of

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Speaker 1: his adoring fans, and he loves saying outlandas shit like

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Speaker 1: he gets off on it. You know, I don't see him.

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Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong, by the way, Like I don't

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Speaker 1: want to be right here, but I don't see him

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Speaker 1: toning down. I don't see him moderating. He has flat

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Speaker 1: out said that he is going to basically operate as

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Speaker 1: close to a dictatorship as he wants. That he wants to,

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Speaker 1: you know, jail his enemies and do this and do that.

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Speaker 1: And I think we'd be well served to actually listen

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Speaker 1: to the words coming out of his mouth, because he

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Speaker 1: is telling us exactly.

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Speaker 2: What he wants to. It's a cult that currently according

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Speaker 2: to the York Time I'm on the vote of fifty

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Speaker 2: one person.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, well, that's the way cults work, you know, that's.

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Speaker 2: Not it's not a cult. I mean, I think there's

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Speaker 2: something in place in the definition of a cult that

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Speaker 2: it's so let's Okay, energized minority.

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Speaker 1: So let's let's let's go back and call it con

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Speaker 1: artist and people who are in the in the thralls

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Speaker 1: of a con artist as opposed to saying cult. What

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to say is that when it's basically a

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Speaker 1: movement founded on one person and on people believing in

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Speaker 1: the personality of that one person and kind of being

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Speaker 1: not caring as much about a lot of other things,

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Speaker 1: as kind of the fact that this is a charismatic leader.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I've never met Trump, but I'm

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Speaker 1: willing to bet that he's incredibly charismatic and he has

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Speaker 1: some sort of kind of intuitive appeal if you if

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Speaker 1: you spend time with him, because otherwise this is like

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Speaker 1: very difficult to understand. I'm sure he has magnetic energy

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Speaker 1: and that you know that that's kind of part of

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Speaker 1: all of this. But what I wanted to what I

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Speaker 1: also wanted to say was in terms of kind of

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Speaker 1: why he won, I think all of the reasons that

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Speaker 1: you stated are absolutely spot on, and I would just

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Speaker 1: add to that that I wouldn't underestimate how much people

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Speaker 1: hate women like I actually think that this is part

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Speaker 1: of it. This is why part of the reason why

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton lost in twenty sixteen, and one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons why this is kind of the you know, when

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Speaker 1: you were saying that Biden is shoulders a lot of

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Speaker 1: blame for not stepping aside earlier, Like he put us

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Speaker 1: in a position where he put us, he put the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party in a position where Kamala Harris was kind

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Speaker 1: of the only choice. And I think it was a

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Speaker 1: really bad mistake to run a female against Trump a

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Speaker 1: second time. And I think that people underestimate how much

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Speaker 1: that mattered. I don't think Biden would have won, by

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Speaker 1: the way, like I think you mightn't absolutely needed to go,

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Speaker 1: but he needed to go sooner so that we could

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Speaker 1: have had a primary and so that there were choices

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Speaker 1: other than Kamala Harris. Because psychologically speaking, I think it

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Speaker 1: was a horrible mistake to run a female candidate against

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Look as the guy in the pairing, I worry that

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Speaker 2: Democrats will internalize that message too much and now it

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Speaker 2: becomes a thing that you know, are they not going

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Speaker 2: to nominate a women for president in the next thirty years?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if.

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Speaker 1: No, that's not that's not what I'm that's not what

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to say.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, Democrats, that's not.

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Speaker 1: What I'm telling you.

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Speaker 2: You have Trump woulding currently Michigan has not been called

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Speaker 2: probably a one point win, and neighboring Wisconsin one point win,

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Speaker 2: and somewhat neighboring Pennsylvania three points, probably closed to two

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Speaker 2: points with late reported vote. Should have picked Shapiro, but

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Speaker 2: wasn't the factor that mattered. Yeah, I don't know. Does

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Speaker 2: a Whitmer Shapiro ticket that throws Biden under the bus win? Maybe?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I have no idea. Look, I don't

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Speaker 2: think Harris was. She didn't really have a message, she

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Speaker 2: didn't really have a second act. She had this period

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Speaker 2: that got Democrats very excited. And it's very weird because

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Speaker 2: like conservatives are not good at coming up with the

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Speaker 2: strongest intellectual hygiene version of their argument, right, they'll say

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Speaker 2: things that are in the wrong way, the unapproved way.

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Speaker 2: I just think if you believe in democracy, you have

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Speaker 2: to have some respect for the fact that fifty one

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Speaker 2: percent of Americans probably call the fifty ish forty nine

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Speaker 2: point seven ish or something voted for Donald Trump. Including

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Speaker 2: By the way, where we live, Uh, you live part time,

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Speaker 2: I live mostly full time enough. I have to pay

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Speaker 2: New York City taxes in New York City, where they

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Speaker 2: were huge cans. I mean working on an article on

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Speaker 2: this this morning in Queens. Yeah, Queen's New York. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump got thirty eight percent of the vote. It's double

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Speaker 2: what he got in twenty two he got nineteen point

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Speaker 2: nine percent. I mean no, I.

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Speaker 1: Think I think you're absolutely right. We cannot we can't

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Speaker 1: just put that aside. And by the way, I think

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Speaker 1: that Democrats are also to blame. I think that they

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Speaker 1: did lose votes from like the very woke Democrats who

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Speaker 1: are like we, you know, we refuse to support Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 1: like the holier than now Liberals who are like, oh,

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Speaker 1: because of her stance on Gaza, we will not be

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Speaker 1: voting for her. They are absolutely to blame as well.

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Speaker 1: And I hope that they understand that because I think

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Speaker 1: that some of the vote, you know, you've got the

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Speaker 1: Hispanic men, like that's you know, the the immigration, the economy,

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Speaker 1: very real issues that they don't understand that. I think

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Speaker 1: Democrats might actually be better for them than Republicans. But

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Speaker 1: then you also have you know, within the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 1: I think there were major missteps as well.

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Speaker 2: Well. About one point five percent of the vote collectively

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Speaker 2: goes to all third party candidates, which is low actually

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Speaker 2: by recent standards. Look, I do think low key that

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Speaker 2: this was a hidden factor that hurt Harris. You didn't

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Speaker 2: really have a right leaning I mean, you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't particularly consider libertarian candidates right leaning, but you didn't

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Speaker 2: have like a Pappy Cannon type. You did have Jill Stein.

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Speaker 2: You also had Kennedy endorsed Trump, and that kind of

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Speaker 2: coincided with a a rough period for Harris. And the

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Speaker 2: polls actually where she had her convention, things looked on

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Speaker 2: the up and up and then and then doesn't get

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Speaker 2: that much press coverage, but Kennedy endorses Trump, and and

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Speaker 2: and you know, all of a sudden, Harris is pulling

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Speaker 2: worse than she had before the convention. So, you know,

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Speaker 2: if that makes it a point, it probably isn't. No

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Speaker 2: one point election probably comes down to needing a two

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Speaker 2: point ish swing. But I guess, I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: we've had this kind of difference in perspectives before. But

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Speaker 2: like I am more willing to tolerate or credit like

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Speaker 2: an inarticulate or poorly articulated moral feeling you know what

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Speaker 2: I mean. I that Like, I mean, I don't get

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Speaker 2: excised about like immigration and s but like it's the

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Speaker 2: notion that like things shifted far to the left and

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Speaker 2: that elites like you and I got a little bit

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Speaker 2: drunk on their power, right, I mean, you know, one

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Speaker 2: thing it wasn't wasn't one of the twenty most important

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Speaker 2: factors in the election. But like, you know, like the

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Speaker 2: student lone relief bill benefits basically wealthy people, including a

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Speaker 2: lot of like law school graduates and things like that,

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Speaker 2: instead of like the working class right literally benefits only

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Speaker 2: people who went to college. And that's Democrats attempt at

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Speaker 2: like populism in that country where most people don't go

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Speaker 2: to college. And by the way, more women than men

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Speaker 2: go to college. And this was an election where kind

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Speaker 2: of revenge of the men. I agree about that part,

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Speaker 2: and like, and I don't know, I mean it's a

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Speaker 2: stale critique, but the notion that like kind of liberals

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Speaker 2: are living in a bubble and that they're kind of

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Speaker 2: I don't know, I you know, obviously if you followed

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Speaker 2: my work, like I kind of became disillusioned with the

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Speaker 2: way that I thought expertise was weaponized for political purposes

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Speaker 2: during COVID, and that a lot of what passed republic

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Speaker 2: Health advice was just like trying to say Orange Man

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Speaker 2: bad Or or declare which team you're on. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know. And I voted for Harris. I voted for Harris,

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Speaker 2: like I said on the earlier show, on the Working

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Speaker 2: Family's line is just a little minor protest to constitute

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Speaker 2: party system. So this is not the outcome I wanted.

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Speaker 2: But like, I understand why people voted for Trump, and

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Speaker 2: I don't buy the notion that the only reason was

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Speaker 2: because that the will was pulled over their eyes. I mean,

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Speaker 2: maybe it was about Trump in particular, right, Like I

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Speaker 2: agree with the part that, like he will not deliver

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Speaker 2: on some of the things he promises. I mean, even

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Speaker 2: on economic growth. I think tariffs are very damaging. And

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Speaker 2: and you know, Elon Musk going on Joe Rogan and

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Speaker 2: saying it will be the less election of Trump. I mean,

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Speaker 2: just that's fucking gross, right, there's no kind of warrant

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Speaker 2: to that claim, and Trump's disrespect for the rule of

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Speaker 2: law and January sixth, But like, but like you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean a friend of the podcast, Jeff Mauer, who

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Speaker 2: writes a block. He's like, it's not quite the boy

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Speaker 2: who called wolf, because Trump is a wolf, but it's

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Speaker 2: people seeing everything is a wolf, and maybe just focusing

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Speaker 2: on the the one wolf, the really bad thing that

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Speaker 2: wolf did you know? January sixth And the cronyism, which,

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Speaker 2: by the way, I mean, Harris played it about and

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Speaker 2: Democrats played it about as badly as you can when

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Speaker 2: it comes to like like if you're going to have

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Speaker 2: the richest man in the world turn against you, and

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe Elon benefited Trump in various ways, maybe not,

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Speaker 2: we can debate that. Then at least do some fucking

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Speaker 2: populist shit, you know what I mean, or at least

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Speaker 2: say that like all these Silicon Valley and they kind

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Speaker 2: of just played it in a very in a very

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Speaker 2: weird way where they seem to regret like offending Silicon Valley,

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Speaker 2: but they didn't take advantage of the fact that, like

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Speaker 2: Silicon Valley is not very popular, Elon Musk is more

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Speaker 2: popular than the average Lolicon Valley magnate. But like, but

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Speaker 2: the message of they retreated to the Biden message that

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Speaker 2: had been losing the whole time, and like they're gonna

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Speaker 2: lose popular wrote by one point set of four points,

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Speaker 2: because like that's the penalty for being eighty one years old.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know, I don't quite I don't quite

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Speaker 2: get what they thought was happening.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean I think that what you just

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Speaker 1: said was what kind of what I meant about? Like

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Speaker 1: not even though Kamala Harris was running on vibes early

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Speaker 1: on about not quite getting kind of what you need

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Speaker 1: to do with with social media and the kinds of

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Speaker 1: pointed messages that you need to get across, which the

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Speaker 1: Republicans did incredibly well, right, they didn't attack that, like

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Speaker 1: they didn't take those shots that I think they should

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Speaker 1: have taken that would have resonated a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: And so I think that, you know, I don't disagree

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Speaker 1: with you that there are very real issues that Democrats

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Speaker 1: need to address right about you know, the discontent and

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Speaker 1: why I think that where we So I still fully

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Speaker 1: maintain that there is will pulled over people's eyes and

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is a con artist because he's not

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Speaker 1: going to deliver on what he says. But I think

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Speaker 1: that we need to figure out, you know, why were

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Speaker 1: they susceptible? Right? Why are people susceptible? To con artists,

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Speaker 1: and you're become more susceptible when there's transitions, social change, uncertainty,

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Speaker 1: where bad things are happening to you, where bad shit's

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Speaker 1: going down right, where you're losing money, bad economic times,

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Speaker 1: all of these things existential threats. That's when con artists

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Speaker 1: can sweep in. And I think that that's kind of

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Speaker 1: that's the thing that ties what you're saying, Nate, to

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Speaker 1: what I'm saying, right. I think that Democrats have been

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Speaker 1: ignoring a lot of those reasons for too long. Right,

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Speaker 1: Why was over half of the population susceptible to this message?

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Speaker 1: And those are very real issues that you know, make

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Speaker 1: people psychologically susceptible to charismatic leaders right to people who

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Speaker 1: can really kind of galvanize those feelings of discos tend

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Speaker 1: and then sell them the version of the world that

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Speaker 1: they want to see, right, a version where they are empowered,

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Speaker 1: where they get their own back, where they become kind

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Speaker 1: of the protagonists again instead of people who feel like

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Speaker 1: they're marginalized. And I think that that's the dynamic that

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Speaker 1: we see happening. So I think that that kind of

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Speaker 1: squares the things that you and I are talking about,

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Speaker 1: would kind would you agree with that way of looking

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Speaker 1: at it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I guess I'm having trouble articulating.

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Speaker 1: It's like, it's okay, we haven't said much.

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Speaker 2: A better version of Trump would have a very good

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Speaker 2: argument that Biden Harris should be voted out of office

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Speaker 2: right now. Trump like makes the wrong version of that argument,

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Speaker 2: which kind of happens to be more successful because it's

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Speaker 2: a populous version. I don't know, I mean, look all right,

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Speaker 2: all right, well a notion that like, I mean, look again,

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Speaker 2: I think the popular vote thing is a big deal.

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Speaker 1: Fact like Trump huge.

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Speaker 2: Gains according to both the exit polls, which are not

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Speaker 2: reliable and just ecological data among Hispanic voters, and I

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Speaker 2: think also among Asian American voters, and probably actually lesser

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Speaker 2: among Black voters. It seems to have been a little

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Speaker 2: overbaked in the polls. But you know, the fastest growing

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Speaker 2: populations in the US are are Hispanic, Asian and quote

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Speaker 2: unquote other or mixed, and those are the populations where

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Speaker 2: it looks like Trump gained the most ground. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I can't like help but see some irony in the

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Speaker 2: fact that like a now i' when it's not like

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Speaker 2: a fucking conservative podcast for thirty seconds. Right, But like

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Speaker 2: the Democrats like hyper attention on racial identity, it's most

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Speaker 2: like white people, you know. And it's like, I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of people who are not like white, super

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Speaker 2: college educated people think like this is just weird, right,

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Speaker 2: why are they so obsessed with this shit? And actually,

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Speaker 2: we want to integrate, right, We want to integrate into society.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we're first generation or second generation or whatever, right,

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Speaker 2: and we don't want to like be cordoned off into

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Speaker 2: like racial identity groups. And it's just it's just it's

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Speaker 2: has to be one of the most electorally unappealing messages

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Speaker 2: in the history of the United States, because like it's

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Speaker 2: not it's not the majority, right, it's one thing. It's

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Speaker 2: a majority, and you demonize the minority. Right, But like

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Speaker 2: woke white people or woke any people are a pretty

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Speaker 2: small minority. And the fact that if you're not on

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Speaker 2: board with their entire agenda, if you're or if you're

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Speaker 2: like me on on the COVIDT you're like, yeah, vaccine's good.

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Speaker 2: Lockdowns went too far, Masks, we can you know, probably

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Speaker 2: minor either way, do what you want to do, right,

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Speaker 2: Like the fact that you're seeing as a fucking heretic

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Speaker 2: for like stating in this majority position, most people felt

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Speaker 2: like vaccines good. Uh, lockdowns went too far, masks do

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Speaker 2: it to be polite? Probably doesn't matter that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's just I don't know. I mean, you're you can't

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Speaker 2: have a message that says if you're not in this

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Speaker 2: narrow circle on all people. And Trump was the one

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Speaker 2: who went on these weird fucking bro podcasts and went

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Speaker 2: and tried to get votes that weren't his and tried

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Speaker 2: to get the crypto people and did a you know,

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Speaker 2: rally with MODI was at in twenty sixteen, right, and like,

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Speaker 2: I'm on your side Indian Americans. It's so crude, But

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Speaker 2: you don't actually get that from Democrats saying I'm on

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Speaker 2: your side, right, I'm fighting for you against the elie.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess because they are the elites. I

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Speaker 2: mean there's like that's a non hypocritical I mean it

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Speaker 2: is hypocritical. I'll take that time. I mean, because Trump

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Speaker 2: is an elite and it's always been just truly.

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Speaker 1: Is an elite, and he's going to be worse for

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Speaker 1: those people than democrass in a lot of ways, which

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Speaker 1: is the irony of all of this right, that he

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Speaker 1: is much better at appealing to them and at thinking

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Speaker 1: that he's going to be better for them, where at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, he really is not. And

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Speaker 1: I think that there there is a lot of evidence

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Speaker 1: for that. So it is ironic, but it's very true.

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Speaker 1: So this is where we are, and I think that

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Speaker 1: it is important to note this, and it's important to

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Speaker 1: try to understand why Democrats have lost so much of

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Speaker 1: the Hispanic but why they've lost some of the Asian vote,

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Speaker 1: why they're losing a lot of these votes that they

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Speaker 1: should be winning because theoretically they should be better for them.

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Speaker 1: And so I think this is just an issue for

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Speaker 1: two years down the line, four years down the line.

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Speaker 1: These are things that the party has to grapple with.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about the polls and about

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Speaker 1: whether you think that Donald Trump was once again underestimated,

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Speaker 1: even though pollsters tried very very hard not to commit

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Speaker 1: that error. What do you think? And I'm also actually

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Speaker 1: quite curious about We talked about the Seltzer poll on Monday,

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Speaker 1: so I'm quite curious about your take on that as well.

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Speaker 2: So it's an oddly consistent it looks like polling air

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Speaker 2: of about two maybe two and a half points for

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Speaker 2: this stuff, you do want the precision of waiting till

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Speaker 2: everything is in. Right, if you take all the polls

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Speaker 2: and shift them over by two points two and a

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Speaker 2: half points toward Trump, then they were actually very accurate.

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Speaker 2: And you know, the average systematic polling here is like

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Speaker 2: three points basically, so like basically you had, like it's

404
00:22:24,084 --> 00:22:26,844
Speaker 2: very normal. And the thing is when you have like, uh,

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Speaker 2: things took close to fifty to fifty, then shifting everything

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Speaker 2: two and a half points to Trump goes from you know,

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Speaker 2: the swing states being split to Trump winning all seven,

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Speaker 2: which you probably will the other way. It's Harris Went's

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Speaker 2: all six. I mean, clearly it's a very tough cycle

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Speaker 2: for the and Seltzer style of we're just going to

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Speaker 2: trust the raw data and we're not going to do

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Speaker 2: a lot of waiting and a lot of turnout modeling. Right, Yeah, look,

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Speaker 2: it's the short version. Is like the idea that like

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Speaker 2: it was a bad election for polling is kind of

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Speaker 2: like wrong on the surface, but kind of true on

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Speaker 2: some deeper level. Right, the extent to which Poles had

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Speaker 2: an okay here by the metrics that you used to

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Speaker 2: officially judge them, and there were plenty of poles to

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Speaker 2: clear that showed a result exactly like this. Right, We're

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Speaker 2: not lacking impolsters, includinghigh quality posters who like had Trump

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Speaker 2: winning these swing states, had Trump even winning the popular vote.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the New York Times last poll had the

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Speaker 2: popular vote in Trump's hands. In the last NBC News

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Speaker 2: poll had the popular vote tied, which will be about right, right,

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Speaker 2: maybe it's a win for national poll but this is

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Speaker 2: actually not so far from the polls, but like it's

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Speaker 2: bad for the pure sense that we're gonna go out

428
00:23:34,764 --> 00:23:37,964
Speaker 2: and collect public opinion and and not do a lot

429
00:23:38,004 --> 00:23:42,164
Speaker 2: of waiting and massaging. And I don't know, I mean,

430
00:23:42,204 --> 00:23:43,764
Speaker 2: look at the end, I think there was a lot

431
00:23:43,804 --> 00:23:45,764
Speaker 2: of hurting in the polls and a lot of hedging,

432
00:23:45,764 --> 00:23:48,124
Speaker 2: and I think Antseelser still had a lot of guts

433
00:23:48,124 --> 00:23:50,964
Speaker 2: to like not second to that. And part of the

434
00:23:50,964 --> 00:23:54,924
Speaker 2: beauty of polling averages that you collected diversity of opinions.

435
00:23:54,964 --> 00:23:57,444
Speaker 2: But like, you know, it's what I worry about, and

436
00:23:57,484 --> 00:23:59,244
Speaker 2: a lot of things in society, including the polling, is

437
00:23:59,244 --> 00:24:03,644
Speaker 2: that like there's not really this kind of ground truth anymore.

438
00:24:03,764 --> 00:24:07,244
Speaker 2: Everyone is kind of indexing on everyone else, like and like,

439
00:24:08,884 --> 00:24:12,164
Speaker 2: what happened is that the modal outcome is that you

440
00:24:12,164 --> 00:24:15,724
Speaker 2: get closer to the mark, Like if Polsters had not hurted,

441
00:24:15,924 --> 00:24:18,644
Speaker 2: it would have been more of a surprise. But what

442
00:24:18,684 --> 00:24:20,804
Speaker 2: happens is that when something really big happens, I mean

443
00:24:20,844 --> 00:24:23,244
Speaker 2: in a statistical way, you get you don't get this

444
00:24:23,324 --> 00:24:28,004
Speaker 2: bell curve distribution that occurs from like normal statistical phenomenon

445
00:24:28,324 --> 00:24:32,804
Speaker 2: where you're taking a random sample of something right. Instead

446
00:24:32,964 --> 00:24:38,484
Speaker 2: you get a dispute with wide fat tails where actually,

447
00:24:38,564 --> 00:24:40,364
Speaker 2: most of time you kind of are pretty good, right,

448
00:24:40,404 --> 00:24:45,204
Speaker 2: but then there are catastrophic nonlinear misses and shifts every

449
00:24:45,204 --> 00:24:46,804
Speaker 2: now and then, and maybe the next shift will be

450
00:24:46,884 --> 00:24:50,124
Speaker 2: that the Gretchen Whitmer Jos Shapiro ticket, or maybe it

451
00:24:50,124 --> 00:24:52,964
Speaker 2: won't be something like that you know, is two points behind.

452
00:24:52,964 --> 00:24:54,604
Speaker 2: I know, the fuck that Giope no money will be

453
00:24:55,724 --> 00:24:57,684
Speaker 2: I mean, look, Democrats are probably set up pretty good

454
00:24:57,724 --> 00:25:00,444
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty eight, you know, I mean, Trump will

455
00:25:00,444 --> 00:25:03,804
Speaker 2: probably be unpopular and probably overreach or worse in a

456
00:25:03,804 --> 00:25:08,724
Speaker 2: lot of ways, and it will be he's old, you know,

457
00:25:08,764 --> 00:25:10,964
Speaker 2: I mean, Democrats at a good bench and they'll have

458
00:25:10,964 --> 00:25:11,524
Speaker 2: a fresh start.

459
00:25:11,724 --> 00:25:14,564
Speaker 1: So just kind of to sum up you if you

460
00:25:14,604 --> 00:25:17,604
Speaker 1: were to give advice, I don't know if that's the

461
00:25:17,684 --> 00:25:19,364
Speaker 1: right way of phrasing it, But if you were to

462
00:25:19,524 --> 00:25:22,764
Speaker 1: kind of be thinking about polls two years, four years

463
00:25:22,804 --> 00:25:25,764
Speaker 1: down the line, do you think that anything needs to

464
00:25:25,844 --> 00:25:29,884
Speaker 1: change basically or do you think that you know, obviously

465
00:25:30,164 --> 00:25:32,004
Speaker 1: we did have the polls saying that this was going

466
00:25:32,044 --> 00:25:34,804
Speaker 1: to be an exceptionally close election. And even though it

467
00:25:34,804 --> 00:25:37,764
Speaker 1: looks like Trump is sweeping, he as you point out,

468
00:25:37,844 --> 00:25:41,244
Speaker 1: is sweeping by small percentages, right, So it is within

469
00:25:41,404 --> 00:25:44,124
Speaker 1: those polling errors. So do you think that the polls

470
00:25:44,164 --> 00:25:46,804
Speaker 1: should just posters should keep going as they've been going,

471
00:25:46,924 --> 00:25:49,444
Speaker 1: or do adjustments need to be made in kind of

472
00:25:49,524 --> 00:25:52,404
Speaker 1: the new climate to how we look at them?

473
00:25:52,484 --> 00:25:55,204
Speaker 2: How were types of adjustments? So you do have these

474
00:25:56,084 --> 00:26:00,444
Speaker 2: counterpoints of like, see these three elections where Trump runs,

475
00:26:00,484 --> 00:26:02,884
Speaker 2: presidential elections where Trump runs and beats his polls. The

476
00:26:02,884 --> 00:26:05,364
Speaker 2: biggest miss was actually twenty twenty, just that Biden is

477
00:26:05,404 --> 00:26:07,204
Speaker 2: such a big lead it didn't cost in the election,

478
00:26:07,764 --> 00:26:10,524
Speaker 2: and then twenty sixteen, and then and then this year's

479
00:26:10,564 --> 00:26:13,404
Speaker 2: the smallest miss. Probably we'll see the numbers once all

480
00:26:13,404 --> 00:26:17,964
Speaker 2: the paint is dry. I just think the techniques they're

481
00:26:18,004 --> 00:26:22,124
Speaker 2: applying like I want to see a fucking poll that

482
00:26:22,564 --> 00:26:24,684
Speaker 2: I don't know, Pretacher was always going to say Trump

483
00:26:24,724 --> 00:26:26,164
Speaker 2: plus one right or tie.

484
00:26:26,244 --> 00:26:26,444
Speaker 1: You know.

485
00:26:26,564 --> 00:26:31,044
Speaker 2: It's like it's like, can you find ways to like,

486
00:26:32,804 --> 00:26:35,364
Speaker 2: I don't know, not put a thumb on the scale,

487
00:26:35,404 --> 00:26:38,644
Speaker 2: but understand that like these classic methods aren't working but

488
00:26:38,644 --> 00:26:41,604
Speaker 2: actually still have like some semblance of like not just

489
00:26:41,724 --> 00:26:45,004
Speaker 2: artificial sweetener of like real content from like real people

490
00:26:45,044 --> 00:26:46,644
Speaker 2: and not just you know, I don't know. I mean,

491
00:26:46,924 --> 00:26:49,444
Speaker 2: I mean, there are elements of the story everywhere. There

492
00:26:49,484 --> 00:26:52,804
Speaker 2: are a lot of poles that did show Trump losing

493
00:26:52,844 --> 00:26:57,924
Speaker 2: ground among our gaining ground among Latino voters and among

494
00:26:57,924 --> 00:27:02,044
Speaker 2: blackboot Like why did the why was the Latino thing

495
00:27:02,324 --> 00:27:06,404
Speaker 2: underestimated but the black vote overestimated? You know, I think

496
00:27:06,444 --> 00:27:13,084
Speaker 2: in general, polsters and to also, you know, have more

497
00:27:13,084 --> 00:27:17,484
Speaker 2: consideration for people who are not black or white or Latino.

498
00:27:17,684 --> 00:27:20,284
Speaker 2: That's a growing segment of the population that's influential in

499
00:27:20,324 --> 00:27:24,684
Speaker 2: some states, and they get tossed into lumped into non

500
00:27:24,764 --> 00:27:26,844
Speaker 2: white or something, right, And you know, I mean that's

501
00:27:26,884 --> 00:27:28,444
Speaker 2: a little minor thing. I mean, I don't know. I mean,

502
00:27:28,644 --> 00:27:30,404
Speaker 2: you do have the fact that like in the elections,

503
00:27:30,444 --> 00:27:32,084
Speaker 2: when Trump has not been on the ballot. The polls

504
00:27:32,084 --> 00:27:33,604
Speaker 2: were fine, The Poles were pretty good in twenty eighteen

505
00:27:33,644 --> 00:27:36,204
Speaker 2: and twenty twenty two. They underestimate Democrats in twenty twelve,

506
00:27:36,284 --> 00:27:38,724
Speaker 2: and so I think Poles are going to be hoping

507
00:27:38,724 --> 00:27:41,764
Speaker 2: it was just a Trump thing. And look, eventually people

508
00:27:41,844 --> 00:27:46,604
Speaker 2: will move their methodologies enough where they will have some

509
00:27:46,644 --> 00:27:49,964
Speaker 2: cycle eventually where they underestimate Democrats. I don't know which

510
00:27:49,964 --> 00:27:56,004
Speaker 2: one it will be. Yeah, I mean, it's not great.

511
00:28:01,364 --> 00:28:10,524
Speaker 2: We'll be right back after this message.

512
00:28:16,444 --> 00:28:21,204
Speaker 1: I'm I'm curious. The other kind of the other element

513
00:28:21,284 --> 00:28:24,644
Speaker 1: here is that you know, we've talked before about how

514
00:28:24,724 --> 00:28:28,204
Speaker 1: the prediction markets and poly market where your paid advisor

515
00:28:29,484 --> 00:28:34,124
Speaker 1: is was actually differing from from the polls for for

516
00:28:34,164 --> 00:28:36,724
Speaker 1: a while and then started converging back to the polls.

517
00:28:37,364 --> 00:28:40,204
Speaker 1: But you can make the argument that in some ways

518
00:28:40,244 --> 00:28:43,924
Speaker 1: they were more correct right than the polls. Yeah, I know.

519
00:28:44,884 --> 00:28:46,564
Speaker 1: Or do you think that was a fluke by that

520
00:28:46,964 --> 00:28:49,364
Speaker 1: French French oil you know.

521
00:28:49,484 --> 00:28:53,044
Speaker 2: I mean the prediction markets kind of they're always more

522
00:28:53,044 --> 00:28:56,524
Speaker 2: republican than the models are, and when Republicans win, they

523
00:28:56,564 --> 00:28:58,924
Speaker 2: look smart. Ironically. In twenty sixteen, Yeah, look at the

524
00:28:58,964 --> 00:29:01,404
Speaker 2: little data point in favor of them and good for

525
00:29:01,444 --> 00:29:03,564
Speaker 2: my poly market equity, I guess, but like I mean,

526
00:29:03,604 --> 00:29:09,924
Speaker 2: I don't, I don't, I don't know. I think you

527
00:29:09,924 --> 00:29:13,644
Speaker 2: have elections every four years, and eighty percent of people

528
00:29:13,684 --> 00:29:15,404
Speaker 2: just bet on better blue every time, and they can

529
00:29:15,484 --> 00:29:17,804
Speaker 2: kind of construct narratives or they look smart when they

530
00:29:18,444 --> 00:29:22,764
Speaker 2: when they do. You know, look, I mean it is

531
00:29:22,764 --> 00:29:26,124
Speaker 2: also true that if poles become less reliable, then it's

532
00:29:26,124 --> 00:29:28,404
Speaker 2: not that your gut becomes more reliable, but it's that

533
00:29:29,684 --> 00:29:32,684
Speaker 2: it becomes more reliable relative to a declining indicator. You

534
00:29:32,684 --> 00:29:36,284
Speaker 2: know what I mean, because an arguments. It's never quite

535
00:29:36,284 --> 00:29:38,844
Speaker 2: that like your gut tells you literally nothing. It's that

536
00:29:38,964 --> 00:29:43,324
Speaker 2: like you formerly have this kind of like scientific way

537
00:29:43,404 --> 00:29:48,004
Speaker 2: to do better than your gut and now maybe you know,

538
00:29:48,204 --> 00:29:50,644
Speaker 2: poles kind of reflect cut anyway, there's like not even

539
00:29:50,684 --> 00:29:54,404
Speaker 2: this like clear distinction about it. And you know, I

540
00:29:54,444 --> 00:29:56,684
Speaker 2: don't know, I don't know. I think it was I

541
00:29:56,724 --> 00:29:59,684
Speaker 2: think if you look at like the history, I think

542
00:30:00,524 --> 00:30:04,964
Speaker 2: prediction markets need a couple more good cycles. But I

543
00:30:04,964 --> 00:30:07,044
Speaker 2: mean they got they got Look give credit where it's

544
00:30:07,124 --> 00:30:11,324
Speaker 2: give credit where's due. The French whale's wealthier man today.

545
00:30:11,364 --> 00:30:14,924
Speaker 2: I hope he comes to the win Las Vegas and

546
00:30:14,964 --> 00:30:16,844
Speaker 2: December employees in some tournaments.

547
00:30:17,444 --> 00:30:20,764
Speaker 1: Yes, there's a there are some wonderful events. French Whale,

548
00:30:20,844 --> 00:30:24,044
Speaker 1: please please come and play. But I do I do

549
00:30:24,124 --> 00:30:27,884
Speaker 1: want to say that, you know, I always caution against

550
00:30:28,204 --> 00:30:31,324
Speaker 1: going with your quote unquote gut feeling because what we know,

551
00:30:31,484 --> 00:30:33,204
Speaker 1: and I just want to kind of put that out there,

552
00:30:33,284 --> 00:30:36,844
Speaker 1: is that humans are very very bad at distinguishing correct

553
00:30:36,884 --> 00:30:40,164
Speaker 1: from incorrect gut feelings. Right, we're equally certain that both

554
00:30:40,524 --> 00:30:43,244
Speaker 1: that both are good. We just we don't know which

555
00:30:43,284 --> 00:30:45,284
Speaker 1: are right and which are wrong. So the gut sometimes

556
00:30:45,284 --> 00:30:47,044
Speaker 1: tells us the right thing and sometimes the wrong thing,

557
00:30:47,084 --> 00:30:48,964
Speaker 1: but we just have no fucking clue. So I think

558
00:30:48,964 --> 00:30:51,404
Speaker 1: that that's really really important, which is why we need data,

559
00:30:51,644 --> 00:30:54,484
Speaker 1: which is why we need kind of these external sources

560
00:30:54,804 --> 00:30:57,204
Speaker 1: where you know, in a in a tie break, you

561
00:30:57,244 --> 00:30:59,844
Speaker 1: can kind of look at your gut, especially if it's

562
00:30:59,884 --> 00:31:01,964
Speaker 1: a thing where you're an expert in right, where you

563
00:31:02,044 --> 00:31:04,644
Speaker 1: might not have conscious access to why your gut is

564
00:31:04,724 --> 00:31:06,884
Speaker 1: saying something. But it's not actually a gut feeling, it's

565
00:31:06,964 --> 00:31:10,284
Speaker 1: just expertise, right, It's the fact that you have pattern recognition,

566
00:31:10,364 --> 00:31:12,684
Speaker 1: because this is something that you're very good at and

567
00:31:12,724 --> 00:31:16,484
Speaker 1: that you have correctly identified many many times before. Unfortunately,

568
00:31:16,484 --> 00:31:19,884
Speaker 1: the elections is absolutely not that, because we have, as

569
00:31:19,884 --> 00:31:22,684
Speaker 1: you say, an election every four years, we simply do

570
00:31:22,724 --> 00:31:25,604
Speaker 1: not have the experience, We don't have the feedback, and

571
00:31:25,684 --> 00:31:29,844
Speaker 1: so I would just I would very much caution against

572
00:31:29,924 --> 00:31:32,804
Speaker 1: kind of using your gut to try to come to pronouncements,

573
00:31:33,164 --> 00:31:36,324
Speaker 1: especially because when you're also in an emotional situation, your

574
00:31:36,324 --> 00:31:39,404
Speaker 1: gut tends to be much more incorrect, right because you

575
00:31:39,444 --> 00:31:41,764
Speaker 1: have there are things that are clouding your judgment, there

576
00:31:41,764 --> 00:31:44,204
Speaker 1: are things that are making you act in one way

577
00:31:44,284 --> 00:31:46,964
Speaker 1: or another. So I truly hope that we are able

578
00:31:47,004 --> 00:31:49,244
Speaker 1: to be in a situation where we have external data

579
00:31:50,004 --> 00:31:53,164
Speaker 1: ways that we can make sure that our polling, you know,

580
00:31:53,244 --> 00:31:56,724
Speaker 1: does not if it deteriorates, that it then becomes better again,

581
00:31:57,564 --> 00:32:00,684
Speaker 1: and that you know, things like prediction markets end up

582
00:32:00,724 --> 00:32:03,324
Speaker 1: being good. Even though I know, and you've written about

583
00:32:03,324 --> 00:32:08,164
Speaker 1: this extensively, that when it comes to big events like

584
00:32:08,764 --> 00:32:11,004
Speaker 1: you know, the elections or the super Bowl, the super

585
00:32:11,004 --> 00:32:14,724
Speaker 1: bowls that we have more frequently, prediction markets are obviously

586
00:32:15,204 --> 00:32:18,284
Speaker 1: not the same as when it's when you have less money, right,

587
00:32:18,364 --> 00:32:21,244
Speaker 1: less on money, less less emotional money on the line.

588
00:32:22,044 --> 00:32:24,964
Speaker 1: So I think that that's uh really important.

589
00:32:25,004 --> 00:32:28,444
Speaker 2: One thing, if you were following polymarket last night, if

590
00:32:28,444 --> 00:32:30,204
Speaker 2: you're following poly market last night, you knew a lot

591
00:32:30,244 --> 00:32:35,524
Speaker 2: sooner than Harris was gonna lose. I mean, you know,

592
00:32:35,564 --> 00:32:38,884
Speaker 2: at first, very early on, there were these counties in

593
00:32:38,964 --> 00:32:40,884
Speaker 2: Indiana and stuff that looked pretty good for her. But

594
00:32:40,924 --> 00:32:43,884
Speaker 2: that's because you had you had a lot of vote

595
00:32:44,044 --> 00:32:46,444
Speaker 2: that was early vote, and Democrats actually looks like did

596
00:32:46,444 --> 00:32:49,604
Speaker 2: do better in the early vote. And then you get

597
00:32:49,644 --> 00:32:51,564
Speaker 2: the election day vote and it gets a little redder,

598
00:32:51,564 --> 00:32:53,284
Speaker 2: and then it was kind of consistently every you know,

599
00:32:53,804 --> 00:32:55,724
Speaker 2: except I mean New York in California might actually have

600
00:32:55,844 --> 00:32:57,124
Speaker 2: more of a red shift. And then like there are

601
00:32:57,124 --> 00:32:59,164
Speaker 2: a few a few of the crunchy plays. You know,

602
00:32:59,404 --> 00:33:03,964
Speaker 2: main looks pretty good for Democrats. Colorado, right, the really

603
00:33:04,284 --> 00:33:07,204
Speaker 2: white states with a lot all of the Colorado was

604
00:33:07,244 --> 00:33:10,204
Speaker 2: a little bit more diverse. But like, yeah, I mean

605
00:33:10,204 --> 00:33:13,604
Speaker 2: there are these pockets, but like very few, very few pockets.

606
00:33:13,724 --> 00:33:16,564
Speaker 2: I mean kind of what happened is that, like I

607
00:33:16,604 --> 00:33:19,044
Speaker 2: don't know if Harris actually gained ground among white voters

608
00:33:19,084 --> 00:33:22,844
Speaker 2: like some poles said she would, she lost some ground.

609
00:33:22,844 --> 00:33:25,284
Speaker 2: Even over this, she saw some ground of bumble black voters.

610
00:33:25,324 --> 00:33:27,724
Speaker 2: Not that much, although if you look at Eckel, I mean,

611
00:33:27,724 --> 00:33:30,604
Speaker 2: look at the fucking Bronx. Let me look at the Bronx,

612
00:33:30,604 --> 00:33:35,164
Speaker 2: which is obviously Hispanic and black. Trump got twenty seven

613
00:33:35,204 --> 00:33:37,884
Speaker 2: percent of the vote in the Bronx. That's do you know?

614
00:33:37,924 --> 00:33:39,684
Speaker 2: How about you got in twenty twelve? Now I don't

615
00:33:39,804 --> 00:33:44,884
Speaker 2: eight percent. It's fucking tripled three point five x in

616
00:33:44,924 --> 00:33:45,684
Speaker 2: twelve years.

617
00:33:46,364 --> 00:33:48,484
Speaker 1: That's huge, and that's terrifying.

618
00:33:49,004 --> 00:33:50,844
Speaker 2: It was Romney and twenty twelve, she'd say, not a

619
00:33:50,884 --> 00:33:54,244
Speaker 2: Bronx guy, No, not at all. Trump got nine and

620
00:33:54,244 --> 00:33:55,484
Speaker 2: a half percent in twenty sixteen.

621
00:33:55,644 --> 00:33:59,964
Speaker 1: Still, still, this is still, this is huge, It is terrifying.

622
00:34:00,684 --> 00:34:04,324
Speaker 1: There's something worth consideration. Let's talk a little bit about

623
00:34:05,204 --> 00:34:09,604
Speaker 1: will Trump get the popular vote? I think there's there's

624
00:34:09,644 --> 00:34:12,844
Speaker 1: some indications that he will, but we obviously don't have

625
00:34:12,844 --> 00:34:16,924
Speaker 1: the numbers yet. This is morning on Wednesday the sixth.

626
00:34:17,444 --> 00:34:21,084
Speaker 1: Will what will happen in the House. I think that

627
00:34:21,124 --> 00:34:23,844
Speaker 1: these are things that are actually quite important for Trump's

628
00:34:23,844 --> 00:34:27,284
Speaker 1: mindset and for how he kind of sweeps into office

629
00:34:27,324 --> 00:34:30,884
Speaker 1: and what his first orders of business are going to be.

630
00:34:32,244 --> 00:34:37,324
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, elections have consequences. You know, as

631
00:34:37,324 --> 00:34:40,404
Speaker 2: far as the House goes, you have a lot of

632
00:34:40,484 --> 00:34:45,444
Speaker 2: races that are uncalled. The model's decision Desk HQ has

633
00:34:45,484 --> 00:34:49,404
Speaker 2: like a model that last night was showing actually Democrats

634
00:34:49,444 --> 00:34:51,324
Speaker 2: were favored to keep the House. That shifted GP. Now

635
00:34:51,364 --> 00:34:54,364
Speaker 2: the prediction markets have shifted GP. Now it's competitive. I mean,

636
00:34:54,364 --> 00:34:58,644
Speaker 2: but the kind of most likely scenario is this tenuous

637
00:34:58,724 --> 00:35:04,244
Speaker 2: GOP majority where it's Republican probably, I mean, I don't

638
00:35:04,244 --> 00:35:06,524
Speaker 2: know the exact numbers, right, but like, but the Freedom

639
00:35:06,564 --> 00:35:10,444
Speaker 2: Caucus we have a narrow GP majority. It's not very functional.

640
00:35:11,764 --> 00:35:13,404
Speaker 2: So that's a beat up point. The US House is

641
00:35:13,444 --> 00:35:17,044
Speaker 2: now where the action is in politics. Certainly if Democrats

642
00:35:17,044 --> 00:35:18,964
Speaker 2: win it, which is still a possibility, but like it's

643
00:35:19,044 --> 00:35:21,364
Speaker 2: you know, either that or like a relatively narrow Republican majority.

644
00:35:21,404 --> 00:35:25,524
Speaker 2: That's the range, like and like and if that happens

645
00:35:25,564 --> 00:35:30,084
Speaker 2: then then yeah, I mean that's where the action is.

646
00:35:30,124 --> 00:35:32,964
Speaker 2: The Senate is not going to be with probably fifty

647
00:35:33,004 --> 00:35:35,524
Speaker 2: three ish Republican senators, it's not going to be a

648
00:35:36,564 --> 00:35:40,804
Speaker 2: check on Trump's power appreciably, but the House in a

649
00:35:40,844 --> 00:35:43,244
Speaker 2: weird way might be. And then you have to think

650
00:35:43,284 --> 00:35:47,244
Speaker 2: Democrats are pretty clear favorites to take back the House

651
00:35:47,284 --> 00:35:48,244
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six.

652
00:35:49,724 --> 00:35:52,844
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be nice, and I think and the

653
00:35:52,924 --> 00:35:55,804
Speaker 1: other part of it is obviously the judiciary, right and

654
00:35:55,844 --> 00:35:58,124
Speaker 1: all of the federal appointments that Trump is going to

655
00:35:58,124 --> 00:36:01,204
Speaker 1: be able to make, and potentially Supreme Court. I mean,

656
00:36:01,244 --> 00:36:04,484
Speaker 1: this is something that we've talked about before. I actually

657
00:36:04,564 --> 00:36:08,844
Speaker 1: think that it would be pretty dangerous, given what happened

658
00:36:08,924 --> 00:36:13,964
Speaker 1: with uh past appointments in the slam duck period, for

659
00:36:14,124 --> 00:36:17,044
Speaker 1: so Tamyr to try to retire now and try to

660
00:36:17,044 --> 00:36:19,604
Speaker 1: get Biden to replace her.

661
00:36:20,484 --> 00:36:21,124
Speaker 2: I think that.

662
00:36:20,964 --> 00:36:23,964
Speaker 1: That that might not go down very well. But I

663
00:36:23,964 --> 00:36:26,884
Speaker 1: think we're now in exactly the scenario that you and

664
00:36:26,924 --> 00:36:29,884
Speaker 1: I talked about where she wanted the first female president

665
00:36:29,884 --> 00:36:32,044
Speaker 1: to replace her, and now like there's a good chance

666
00:36:32,084 --> 00:36:34,644
Speaker 1: she's going to be replaced by Trump. So this is

667
00:36:34,684 --> 00:36:35,604
Speaker 1: kind of one of the other.

668
00:36:35,484 --> 00:36:37,964
Speaker 2: Consequences I got. I got a plan for you.

669
00:36:38,084 --> 00:36:39,084
Speaker 1: What's a plan for me?

670
00:36:40,564 --> 00:36:43,444
Speaker 2: Joe Biden appears on stage six PM and Kamala Harris's

671
00:36:43,444 --> 00:36:45,524
Speaker 2: concession speech and say I'm clearly not fucking fit to

672
00:36:45,524 --> 00:36:47,124
Speaker 2: be president twenty four to seven and there for Kamala

673
00:36:47,164 --> 00:36:50,924
Speaker 2: Harris now president until January twentieth and then she appoints

674
00:36:50,924 --> 00:36:52,404
Speaker 2: Clada my Or's replacement.

675
00:36:53,924 --> 00:36:57,284
Speaker 1: All right, well will that work? Okay, guys, listen to us.

676
00:36:57,684 --> 00:37:00,804
Speaker 1: This is something that this is something that who.

677
00:37:00,724 --> 00:37:02,444
Speaker 2: Do you think would make a better president? There's still crize.

678
00:37:02,444 --> 00:37:04,844
Speaker 2: It's still one two, three months, right, Like, I'd rather

679
00:37:04,884 --> 00:37:10,804
Speaker 2: have Kamala Harris president, absolutely, and maybe maybe you maybe

680
00:37:10,804 --> 00:37:12,804
Speaker 2: you create a little bit less stigma around the next

681
00:37:12,844 --> 00:37:14,604
Speaker 2: you tell me a female candidate, if you've had a woman.

682
00:37:14,884 --> 00:37:19,004
Speaker 1: That's actually a really interesting proposal. I like it, you know, so,

683
00:37:19,004 --> 00:37:20,404
Speaker 1: so I think that that would be a really good

684
00:37:20,484 --> 00:37:22,644
Speaker 1: call to action for for Biden. I know you said

685
00:37:22,644 --> 00:37:25,444
Speaker 1: that kind of tongue in cheek, Nate, but still like,

686
00:37:26,684 --> 00:37:29,964
Speaker 1: if Biden were to instate this first female president and

687
00:37:30,284 --> 00:37:32,324
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris can actually get shit done in the next

688
00:37:32,324 --> 00:37:36,004
Speaker 1: three months, and I think that that would be a

689
00:37:36,044 --> 00:37:40,324
Speaker 1: really really interesting consideration and play for the Democratic Party.

690
00:37:41,324 --> 00:37:44,684
Speaker 1: So let's leave it at that, Biden, you know, why

691
00:37:44,724 --> 00:37:47,644
Speaker 1: don't you, why don't you step aside and let the

692
00:37:47,684 --> 00:37:51,724
Speaker 1: first woman be president? So sunny before before we leave, though,

693
00:37:51,964 --> 00:37:53,244
Speaker 1: what are you going to be doing for the rest

694
00:37:53,244 --> 00:37:53,644
Speaker 1: of the day.

695
00:37:55,964 --> 00:37:57,364
Speaker 2: You know, I got to write a blog post and

696
00:37:57,404 --> 00:37:59,884
Speaker 2: then I fucking free, fucking free, Mark, I can do

697
00:37:59,924 --> 00:38:02,284
Speaker 2: where the fuck I want for the first time in

698
00:38:02,404 --> 00:38:04,844
Speaker 2: like three hundred days because I have the book deadline,

699
00:38:04,844 --> 00:38:08,604
Speaker 2: and then yeah, yeah, i'd be free.

700
00:38:08,804 --> 00:38:13,684
Speaker 1: Here's racing your freedom date. I will also be drinking today,

701
00:38:14,484 --> 00:38:18,924
Speaker 1: and I will attempt once again to play poker, because

702
00:38:19,044 --> 00:38:22,324
Speaker 1: yesterday I was playing the NAP ten North American Poker's

703
00:38:22,284 --> 00:38:25,564
Speaker 1: Tour main event, and as the results got worse and worse,

704
00:38:25,684 --> 00:38:28,444
Speaker 1: I ended up punting late in the night and busting

705
00:38:28,524 --> 00:38:31,284
Speaker 1: with a level to go. So today I will try

706
00:38:31,284 --> 00:38:33,044
Speaker 1: to keep my head in the game and not punt

707
00:38:33,164 --> 00:38:35,084
Speaker 1: and actually make day two of the event.

708
00:38:37,124 --> 00:38:40,124
Speaker 2: That's good. Yes, it'd be funny if like every time

709
00:38:40,124 --> 00:38:42,724
Speaker 2: you like win a coin flip, like Harris, this is

710
00:38:42,724 --> 00:38:45,924
Speaker 2: a state and you're like, oh my cousin win, that

711
00:38:45,924 --> 00:38:47,884
Speaker 2: would be a very funny. Can you win the tournament

712
00:38:47,924 --> 00:38:50,444
Speaker 2: at like three forty five in the morning when they

713
00:38:50,484 --> 00:38:51,404
Speaker 2: call Alaska for you?

714
00:38:51,444 --> 00:38:53,284
Speaker 1: That? I mean, that would have been hilarious. That would

715
00:38:53,284 --> 00:38:55,204
Speaker 1: have been the ultimate illusion of control.

716
00:38:54,884 --> 00:38:59,324
Speaker 2: Study right, Oscar wild picture of Dorian Pray exactly exactly.

717
00:38:59,364 --> 00:39:02,564
Speaker 1: Well, today I cannot be causing it because because it

718
00:39:02,604 --> 00:39:05,684
Speaker 1: has already happened. But but yes, that would be that

719
00:39:05,724 --> 00:39:07,844
Speaker 1: would be a very funny we should write, we should

720
00:39:07,884 --> 00:39:10,684
Speaker 1: co author science fiction story like that night. Let's do it.

721
00:39:11,884 --> 00:39:14,724
Speaker 1: And on that note, let's see how the Let's see

722
00:39:14,764 --> 00:39:16,684
Speaker 1: how the next week goes, and hopefully by then we'll

723
00:39:16,724 --> 00:39:20,004
Speaker 1: know where the House of Representative stands.

724
00:39:21,564 --> 00:39:24,244
Speaker 2: Hopefully, but maybe not because we're relying a lot of anyway, Yeah,

725
00:39:24,284 --> 00:39:25,924
Speaker 2: too long. It's a lot of racis in California to

726
00:39:25,924 --> 00:39:28,364
Speaker 2: take forever to account. So maybe not next week. But

727
00:39:28,364 --> 00:39:30,924
Speaker 2: but yes, we will speak again next week, and I

728
00:39:30,924 --> 00:39:31,884
Speaker 2: hope that you'll join us.

729
00:39:38,004 --> 00:39:40,124
Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach

730
00:39:40,204 --> 00:39:45,684
Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot fm.

731
00:39:45,764 --> 00:39:48,884
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondikova.

732
00:39:48,524 --> 00:39:49,884
Speaker 2: And Bobby Nate Silver.

733
00:39:50,604 --> 00:39:54,204
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

734
00:39:54,684 --> 00:39:58,244
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

735
00:39:58,284 --> 00:40:01,844
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

736
00:40:02,524 --> 00:40:04,684
Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us

737
00:40:04,684 --> 00:40:06,684
Speaker 2: so all the people can find us too. And if

738
00:40:06,724 --> 00:40:08,924
Speaker 2: you want to listen to an ad free version, sign

739
00:40:09,004 --> 00:40:11,484
Speaker 2: up for quick Skin Plus for six ten and nine

740
00:40:11,524 --> 00:40:13,964
Speaker 2: a month you get access to ad free listening. Thanks

741
00:40:14,004 --> 00:40:14,564
Speaker 2: for tuning in,