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Speaker 1: Here are the United States. We are alarmed by the

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Speaker 1: new calls to adopt socialism in our country. America was

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Speaker 1: founded on liberty and independence and not government coercion, domination,

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Speaker 1: and control. We are born free and we will stay free.

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Speaker 1: That might be my favorite portion of any Where's the

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Speaker 1: super applause line? My favorite line of the speech. That

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Speaker 1: might be my favorite portion of any State of the

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Speaker 1: Union address I've ever watched my adult life. Aren't there?

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Speaker 1: You go? Here? You go to I we renew our

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Speaker 1: resolve that America will never be a socialist country. Loved it,

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Speaker 1: loved it, loved it, loved it, loved it. Couldn't love

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Speaker 1: it more. And he's probably wrong, but it will perhaps

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Speaker 1: postpone the inevitable slide into the the answering, the siren

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Speaker 1: song of socialism and the inevitable rocks. I wonder how

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Speaker 1: much that contributed to the overwhelmingly positive poll numbers on

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Speaker 1: the speech that are out today. Well, let's consider that another.

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Speaker 1: Questions about the Speech and the State of the Union

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Speaker 1: with Lonnie Chen David and Diane Stephy, research fellow at

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Speaker 1: the Hoover Institution. Lonnie is also the director of Domestic

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Speaker 1: Policy Studies at Stanford University. Lonnie, welcome sir, how are

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Speaker 1: you hey, guys, good morning, doing well? That was that

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Speaker 1: was the best part of the speech, by the way,

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Speaker 1: without questions, it was fantastic. You know, I fear that

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Speaker 1: everybody stood up. Yeah. Well, Bernie sat there red faced

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Speaker 1: and angry, but faced and socialists. So overall impressions, Lonnie, well, yeah.

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Speaker 1: I first of all, I thought that that was a

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Speaker 1: strong part of the speech because it represented a contrast

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Speaker 1: that I think most Americans, uh, let play, most Americans

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Speaker 1: over a certain age would completely agree with this sentiment

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Speaker 1: the President express, they're regarding socialism. But but but aside

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Speaker 1: from that, I thought, on policy grounds, is actually a

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Speaker 1: pretty good speech. I think he put in there a

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Speaker 1: lot of things that people would generally agree with. The

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Speaker 1: need to have better border security, they need to have

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Speaker 1: more transparency and healthcare, the need to have better infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: I mean, these are things that generally speaking, people would

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Speaker 1: find to be important priorities. Overall, I thought it was

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Speaker 1: actually a pretty strong speech. I'm not surprised that the

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Speaker 1: reactions were pretty positive. Not to be too sarcastic, but

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Speaker 1: people also approved of our moon landing and winning World

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Speaker 1: War Two, so what are you against? Pretty easy to

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Speaker 1: applaud for things and nobody's going to disagree with. Let

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Speaker 1: me assert something, Lonnie, then you take it from there.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was almost Clintonian in its triangulating as

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Speaker 1: which is a fancy way to express He said a

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Speaker 1: bunch of stuff that Democrats like had to be happy

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Speaker 1: about an applaud for. And I'm looking at the CBS

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Speaker 1: News poll, uh thought the speech would help unite the country.

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Speaker 1: Only eight percent thought that the divisive orange face president

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Speaker 1: would divide the country with that speech. Not even ten

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Speaker 1: thought it was a divisive speech that was remarkable to me, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was remarkable. And here's the other thing. We we

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Speaker 1: oftentimes respond to things based on our expectations, and I

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Speaker 1: think going into it, you know, the White House and said, look,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be a speech that's going to unify people,

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Speaker 1: everywody said yeah, yeah, okay, whatever. And then the president

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Speaker 1: comes out and he gives a speech which was for

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Speaker 1: it was was pretty unifying, and I think people then

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Speaker 1: sort of say, well, actually, yeah, that that was and

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Speaker 1: we expected maybe something that was very different. So the

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Speaker 1: the expectations game, the framing game, that's all a part

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Speaker 1: of the state of the Union address as well. And

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Speaker 1: in previous administrations you've seen this where administrations have come

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Speaker 1: out and tried to set expectations. In this case, I

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Speaker 1: think because the President in some situations, has been quite

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Speaker 1: desisive over the last year, he was able to come

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Speaker 1: out and give a speech last night. The people said, actually,

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Speaker 1: you know, that was quite unified. The themes in there,

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Speaker 1: the policy and there was quite unifying. So just in general,

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Speaker 1: looking at the polls, CBS and CNN having approval for

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Speaker 1: the speech, you can't get a bigger home run than that,

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Speaker 1: can you. No, you can't. And I think in the

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Speaker 1: given where we are in our political history, having just

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Speaker 1: come through this really divisive shutdown, having immigration be an

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Speaker 1: issue that is so bitterly divided on partisan lines, for

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Speaker 1: the President to be able to give a speech like

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Speaker 1: that clearly was a big win for the White House,

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Speaker 1: a big win for the president. Now here's the problem, guys.

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Speaker 1: You know, the news cycle moves so quickly, and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna be talking about some been completely different like maybe

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Speaker 1: within a few minutes. So how do you sustain this momentum?

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Speaker 1: I think that's the question. Well, you know, I am

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Speaker 1: absolutely of the opinion that these speeches get an enormous

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Speaker 1: amount of attention in the moments after and then are

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Speaker 1: immediately forgotten. On the other hand, given the situation with

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Speaker 1: the high stakes negotiation, the possibility of another shutdown, uh,

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Speaker 1: the argument about the border and walls and fences and

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Speaker 1: the rest of it, I think it's it's kind of

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Speaker 1: unique in that there's now right now is when they're

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Speaker 1: gonna sit down, and the will the mood of the

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Speaker 1: country is going to be a big factor in in

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Speaker 1: what happens. Yeah, I think that's right, particularly with with

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Speaker 1: respect to this immigration discussion. You know, there's this committee

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Speaker 1: in Congress that got together because of the resolution of

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Speaker 1: the last shutdown. They're going to be tasked with putting

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Speaker 1: together some kind of integration compromise that both sides can bless.

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Speaker 1: And if you had asked me, let's say, yesterday, before

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Speaker 1: the speech, I would have said, there's a very low

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Speaker 1: probability these guys will be successful. But even this speech,

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Speaker 1: and given maybe some of this renewed energy, you know

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Speaker 1: that that goes from being you know, no no chance

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Speaker 1: to maybe a small chance. I think so, Yeah, some

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Speaker 1: of the momentum does carry over. I'll say this, you

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Speaker 1: don't have to agree that since you work for a

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Speaker 1: lot of politicians. But a lot of politicians are just cowards.

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Speaker 1: And when they see these poll numbers, won't they feel

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Speaker 1: like a people like this speech, of people agree with

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Speaker 1: this immigration point. Won't that have an effect? Yeah? I will,

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Speaker 1: And I look, I agree. Politicians are like weather veins.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they'll go wherever you you want them to

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Speaker 1: go based on public opinion. And I think that's that

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Speaker 1: is part of the challenge we have in our politics today.

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Speaker 1: But there are enough enough leaders of principle. So yeah, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: they look at the speech and they'll see that things

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Speaker 1: like border security are pretty popular, and they'll say, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm for border security. I have always been for border security.

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Speaker 1: When you know that's a croc they work for border

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Speaker 1: security yesterday. Uh so, yes, I think the speech will

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Speaker 1: have an impact in that sense. Hey, we we haven't

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Speaker 1: touched on um what could be a controversial part of

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Speaker 1: the speech on the side of people that liked it

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Speaker 1: and agree with it and vote for Trump. And it

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Speaker 1: was an ad lib that people that were watching the

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Speaker 1: script really caught them by surprise. So when he talked

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Speaker 1: about people coming to this country and coming here, legally.

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Speaker 1: He ad libbed the line, more people than we've ever

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Speaker 1: allowed before are going to come in. And I caught

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Speaker 1: a lot of people by surprise, what what what was

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Speaker 1: going on with with that ad lib? His speechwriters didn't

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Speaker 1: put that in there well, But I think it's consistent

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Speaker 1: with where the President has been on the issue in

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Speaker 1: that first of all, he has concerns about illegal immigration,

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Speaker 1: but he also has concerns about legal immigration. And this

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Speaker 1: is why I think a lot of people have been

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Speaker 1: concerned about his posture on immigration, because I think the posture,

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Speaker 1: even for Republicans in recent memory, has been to say, look,

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Speaker 1: we don't like illegal immigration, but legal immigration, the process

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Speaker 1: of people coming here to contribute to the economy or whatever,

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Speaker 1: that's a good thing. But but the President was true

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Speaker 1: to his to his form, to what he believes on immigration,

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Speaker 1: and I think that ad lib reflects actually where he

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Speaker 1: is as a matter of policy. I would like to

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Speaker 1: know if that was an ad lib he did they're

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Speaker 1: standing there reading the room, or if he thought I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna say this ahead of time, but I'm not telling

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Speaker 1: the speechwriters because they're gonna push back against it, or

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Speaker 1: if the general managers of his golf clubs told them

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Speaker 1: that they're running short of help, which has actually been

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Speaker 1: an issue. Lonnie chen Is with the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

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Speaker 1: So a Lonnie, the only existential threat to the United States,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion and and probably yours and anybody else

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Speaker 1: who has any sense, is our enormous debt our absolute

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Speaker 1: lack of fiscal discipline. Didn't even get a syllable um.

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Speaker 1: Shocking yet unsurprising, I guess yeah, and thank you for

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Speaker 1: bringing that up, because it is it is. It's a

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Speaker 1: huge problem. I go back to a statement that Mike Mullen,

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Speaker 1: who was Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff during

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Speaker 1: the Obama administration, made. He said, the single biggest national

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Speaker 1: security threat we face is not I since it's not Russia,

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Speaker 1: it's not China, it's the it's the debt, and it's

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Speaker 1: our inability to deal with the fact that we have

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Speaker 1: crushing debt loads. And by the way, somebody owns all

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Speaker 1: that debt. We we seem to forget that sometimes if

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Speaker 1: somebody owned all that. We've quoted Mullins, uh what he said,

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Speaker 1: there are a hundred times on this show. It's amazing

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Speaker 1: that you can have in most State of the Union

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Speaker 1: addresses don't mention the national debt. It's incredible, isn't it. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's incredible for Republican president in particular. This used to

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Speaker 1: be a signature hallmark issue for Republicans and and it's

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Speaker 1: it's really you talk about political cowardice. This is one

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Speaker 1: area where political cowardice has has has become the meme

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Speaker 1: by which most politicians leave their lives because there's absolutely

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Speaker 1: no interest in addressing the debt, and and it starts

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Speaker 1: with the president right on down all the way through.

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Speaker 1: These Republicans are not interested in addressing the debt. They

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Speaker 1: are not interested in talking about how to cut deficits

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Speaker 1: because you know what, it's not politically popular anymore. I

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Speaker 1: don't think. I think a lot of people around the

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Speaker 1: country say, you know what, Yeah, the debt's a problem,

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Speaker 1: but give me my benefits. I'd rather have the benefits now. Well,

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Speaker 1: then that's why Bernie is sitting there smugly, because he

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Speaker 1: thinks of socialism is coming, whether you like it or not. Yeah, yeah, Lonnie, listen,

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Speaker 1: we're not here to flatter you. One of the things

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Speaker 1: I enjoy most about talking to you is that you

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Speaker 1: have principles. You have ideals, but you're utterly a realist

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Speaker 1: because you've been around politics long enough. I just I

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Speaker 1: find myself wondering if you me, Bob Dylan, the poet Laureate,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know who else got together to try

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Speaker 1: to design a message that would reach Americans and help

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Speaker 1: them understand the obscenity of us thieving from our children

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Speaker 1: and grandchildren, piling up enormous debt on their heads. Is

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Speaker 1: there any message that could move hearts and minds and

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Speaker 1: and get a little responsibility back into American politics. I

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Speaker 1: really fear for where we are right now in politics

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Speaker 1: would be very, very tough. I mean, over recent history,

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Speaker 1: there have been some messages that people have found from

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Speaker 1: telling I think the first is, you know, we don't

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Speaker 1: want to saddle our our our grandkids with with all

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Speaker 1: this debt, because it's going to come back to hurt them.

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Speaker 1: You know. That was a message that traditionally would would

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Speaker 1: make some headway. The message around people, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: malign actors around the world owning a piece of America.

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Speaker 1: That's essentially what debt is that used to resonate with people,

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Speaker 1: the notion that we ought to live within our means

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Speaker 1: that used to resonate with people at a different time.

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Speaker 1: Now it's really a different time, and so I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of optimism that it's a

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Speaker 1: message that would have a great compelling effect right now.

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Speaker 1: But but make no mistake, this is a huge, huge cross,

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Speaker 1: super super quick follow up. When is America's debt a crisis?

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Speaker 1: Five years, twenty five years, seventy five years? Uh, well, look,

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Speaker 1: I think it's the crisis now. The size of our

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Speaker 1: debt is greater than the size of our economy. I mean,

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Speaker 1: just let that sink in for a minute. Our our

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Speaker 1: economy is the most powerful and most innovative, strongest economy

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Speaker 1: in the world, and the size of our debt load

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Speaker 1: is greater than the the entirety of economic generation in

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Speaker 1: our country. So I think it's a crisis now. As

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Speaker 1: far as when it really comes home to roost, you

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Speaker 1: look at programs like Medicare and Social Security, which people love,

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Speaker 1: but which are huge contributors to the debt. Going forward,

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Speaker 1: as the baby boomer generation retires and people step aside

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Speaker 1: and they begin to leave the workforce, Uh, this is

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Speaker 1: going to go from being an exist at an existential

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Speaker 1: point in the back of our minds to an existential

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Speaker 1: point at the front of our minds. I think, so

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Speaker 1: this is a next ten to fifteen year problem. Well yeah,

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Speaker 1: and the the problem with when is it a crisis?

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Speaker 1: It's the famous Winston Churchill line, when did you go

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Speaker 1: broke gradually? Then suddenly That's the way it works, just

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Yeah, you wonder how you got here.

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Speaker 1: I hate to beat this over and over again, but

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Speaker 1: I want to make the point one more time. So

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Speaker 1: with these poll numbers, and you've worked on campaigns before,

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Speaker 1: where you get up the next morning after a debate

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Speaker 1: or a speech and you look at polls if you

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Speaker 1: were involved in the speech, wouldn't you look at the

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Speaker 1: poll numbers before and be drinking mimosas? Just think, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, Yeah, no they were. They were probably sipping

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Speaker 1: adult beverages last night. I would I would hope. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it was a it was a Look. It's not easy

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Speaker 1: to write these speeches because a lot of times they're

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Speaker 1: written by committee. You've got also the different people who

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Speaker 1: are contributing their little pet project to it, and sometimes

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Speaker 1: it could sound very disjointed. But I do think last

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Speaker 1: night's speech had a certain thematic elegance to it, and

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Speaker 1: that's hard to achieve when you're trying to put that

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Speaker 1: much together. I mean, it's it's not it's an hour

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Speaker 1: long speech, right, there's a lot of stuff that goes

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Speaker 1: into it. So the White House should definitely take a

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Speaker 1: victory laugh today, and knowing this White House, I'm sure

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Speaker 1: they will. Lonnie chen Is on the line of the

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Speaker 1: Hooever Institution, Stanford University. You know, it's it's funny. Everybody

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Speaker 1: we've ever met who spent any significant time with Donald J.

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Speaker 1: Trump says the same thing that he has. He's utterly

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Speaker 1: charming in person. You have his full attention. He wants

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Speaker 1: to know about you. He's curious, he smiles, he laughs,

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Speaker 1: he's engaged in the rest of it. I mean, like

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Speaker 1: to the point of being disarming. And clintonian I thought

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Speaker 1: some of that came through in the speech last night,

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Speaker 1: because he can also be a rotten, sarcastic, mean bastard.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's no doubt, but they're they're her self

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Speaker 1: effacing moments that are smiling at the Democrats. That line

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Speaker 1: don't sit down yet, You're gonna love this. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that was charming. He needs to let more of that out. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and I for me at least, what what I thought

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Speaker 1: was was really disarming was when he was self deprecating.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's oftentimes the critique of this president.

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Speaker 1: He's unable to laugh at himself. You know the line

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Speaker 1: when when they were uh talking about the Holocaust survivor

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Speaker 1: and it was his birthday, and then the crowd burst

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Speaker 1: out and started to saying happy birthday, and then the

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Speaker 1: President ended by saying, you know, they'll never do that

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Speaker 1: for me, you know that right to the survivor himself,

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Speaker 1: which was such a nice wink, and you know, yeah, no,

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Speaker 1: it's it was quite disarming. Lonnie Chen David and Diane Stephy,

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Speaker 1: research fellow, too Over Institution, Director of the Domestic Policy

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Speaker 1: Studies lecturer at Stanford University. Uh, Lonnie, it's it's always stimulating.

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Speaker 1: We enjoyed very much. Thanks, Hey guys, a lot of fun.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, good to talk. Thanks. Yeah, I'd say you

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Speaker 1: get up the next morning in CBS and CNN. Have

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Speaker 1: have any five percent approval for your speech? You're never

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Speaker 1: going to do better than that. Nope. Our text line

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Speaker 1: four one five two nine five k f TC four

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Speaker 1: one five two nine five k f tc,