1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. We 7 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: have heard a lot about North Korea potential nuclear war. 8 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: We've heard about increasing unrust in the Middle East. So 9 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 1: it came as kind of a surprise to me anyway, 10 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 1: that Admiral James Stavritez, whose tine of the Fletcher School 11 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: of Law and Diplomacy and also was a retired U. S. 12 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: Navy admiral informed military commando of NATO, he views the 13 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: biggest threat right now global warming and climate change. He 14 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: joins US now, Admiral Serrita's thank you so much for 15 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: being with us. Can you explain I was surprised by this. Yeah, 16 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: I think here we have to differentiate between tactical threats 17 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: which kind of loom at us in the minute to minute. 18 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: That would be North Korea, Iran, Russia's activities around the world, 19 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: especially in cyber those tactical threats are very pressing, but 20 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: long term, the strategic threat that I am very concerned 21 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 1: about is global warming, and i'll tell you why. You know, 22 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: first of all, it contributes to the tactical threats drought, fires, fame, 23 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: and all these things fuel insecurity. Secondly, as sea levels rise, 24 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,680 Speaker 1: we're gonna lose valuable parts of the coastline, and particularly 25 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: in the Arctic, we're gonna see rising tension as the 26 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: polar caps melt and great powers collide up there, competing 27 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: for hydrocarbons. And third and finally, extreme weather. You know, 28 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: we've just been through a cycle, a trifecta, if you will, 29 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: of terrible hurricanes. All of that drains our readiness. It's 30 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: going to get worse and worse if we don't address it. Now, well, 31 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: what role does the defense community have in this, because 32 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: we've noted in the Defense Appropriations Bill there's a lot 33 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: of mention of the effects of climate change. In fact, 34 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: James Maddis, the Secretary of Defense, seems to concur in 35 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: your thoughts. And just to give an example, you know, 36 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: there's an Air Force radar installation that's on the Marshall Islands, 37 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: and I think it cost about a billion dollars and 38 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: it's projected to be underwater within twenty years exactly. So 39 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: I'll tell you the two big things the military can do. 40 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 1: The first is is very prosaic, and it is that 41 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 1: the Department of Defense is the largest enterprise in the world. 42 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: It's a seven hundred billion uh four million person enterprise. 43 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: So simply addressing our own carbon footprint, our own emissions, 44 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: our own ability to transfer from hydrocarbons two renewables is 45 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: a not insignific secant contribution. And then secondly, what the 46 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 1: military can do is prepare as we look at the 47 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: potential for increased conflict, we look at reactions to extreme 48 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: whether we look at um resources being drained away from 49 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: the military. I think the military has a strategic planning role. 50 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 1: And again this is why I'm advocating paying attention to 51 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: this now. This is one of those problems from Hell 52 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: that you can get by day to day now. But 53 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 1: if you don't address it when the problem really hits 54 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: in half a century, it's too late. Admiral problement problem 55 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: in Hell, it may become so too would be nuclear war. 56 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: And I do want to get your thoughts on shorter 57 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: term tactical threats, in particular North Korea. In an interview 58 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: that President Trump did with the Wall Street Journal, he 59 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: said that he has actually developed a positive relationship with 60 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: North Korea's leader, despite their mutual public insults. Quote. I 61 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: probably have a very good relationship with Kim Jong. I 62 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: have relationships with people. I think you people are surprised. 63 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: What do you make of that? Um, it's perplexing. I 64 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: think the most uh, in charitable uh analysis of it 65 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,239 Speaker 1: would be that President Trump is developing an imaginary friend 66 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 1: who visits him at night in the White House. UM. 67 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: Let's hope not. Uh. Let's let's say for a second 68 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: that it was a rational comment that he made. Um. 69 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: The only thing I could think that he's alluding to 70 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: is some level of back channel communication. But you know, 71 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: I talked to a lot of people in Washington. The 72 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: head of the United Nations delegation is a good friend 73 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: of mine. I think I'm fairly plugged into this, and 74 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 1: I don't see those back channel communications. So I think 75 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: it's quite perplexing. Now we are to remember that life 76 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: is kind of compared to what and compared to throwing 77 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: out juvenile insults. My button is bigger than your button 78 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: or little Rocketman, etcetera. This is probably better and keeps 79 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: us on that narrow sliver of hope we have toward 80 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: a diplomatic resolution. Well, you know, as you have noted 81 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: in the past and your books, the Accidental Admiral describing 82 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: your thirty seven career, thirty seven year career of service 83 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: for which, of course the nation is grateful you have. 84 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 1: Of course, uh, really put together a look at the history, history, 85 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: and the geopolitics of oceans, of sea lanes. What is 86 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: the most critical sea lane right now? And how is 87 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: the United States dealing with it? The most critical sea passage, 88 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: I would say is the South China Sea, because here 89 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 1: you see the confluence of another major strategic challenge for 90 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,719 Speaker 1: the United States, and that's the rise of China. I 91 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: don't think we're headed for war with China, but we've 92 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: got a serious strategic competitor, and China's objective is to 93 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: dominate the South China Sea, which is a vast area 94 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: about the size of the Gulf of Mexico, and they 95 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: claim it as territorial sea. It's full of hydrocarbons, natural gas, 96 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: and oil, and it is bounded by a group of 97 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 1: nations that are allies, friends and partners to the United States, 98 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: So we need to be mindful of the fact that 99 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: we are a pacific power, a maritime power. We need 100 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 1: to operate in those waters. We're not going to go 101 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: to war with China. But if we simply drift away 102 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: pun intended uh that water space will be dominated by China, 103 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 1: will will be very, very disadvantaged strategically in another fifty 104 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: years if that occurs. Based on what you know about 105 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 1: the players and the countries in that region, do you 106 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 1: believe that American allies are beginning to doubt the resolve 107 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 1: of the United States to play a meaningful role in 108 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: the area. I think that there is questioning of the 109 00:06:56,200 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: seriousness of the President frankly personally, um be because of 110 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 1: the tweets, because of this recent brew haha over his 111 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: foul language in the White House. Individually, each of those 112 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: things would not be necessarily terrible, but when you add 113 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: them up, it creates a lot of confusion on the 114 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: part of our allies. Here's the good news. He's still 115 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: surrounded by a coterie a very capable national security advisors. 116 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: General Maddis over its defense and General McMaster in the 117 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: White House. National Security Advisor General Kelly in the White House. 118 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: These are serious security professionals. I think they'll keep us 119 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 1: on a fairly even course. But um our allies are 120 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: concerned and it's becoming a kind of endless game of 121 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: reassurance on the part of those other officials to go 122 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: to the region and uh set things to right. I 123 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: think we'll have to do more of that if we're 124 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: going to be regarded seriously in the Pacific. Admiral Real 125 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: quick ten seconds. Do those qualify people around President Trump 126 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: understand the threat of climate change? They do? And look 127 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: at the statements by General Jim Maddis when he was 128 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: a four star general. He understands it very well. Thank 129 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: you very much for being with US. Admiral James steverdis retired. 130 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: He's the dean of the Fletcher School of Law and 131 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: Diplomacy at a Tough university. He is also a Bloomberg 132 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: View columnist. JP Morgan Chase releasing their quarterly report today, 133 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: the biggest bank by the biggest US bank by assets, 134 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: reporting net income of about four and a quarter billion dollars. 135 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: That was down nearly from a year earlier, but it 136 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: has to do with a nearly two and a half 137 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: billion dollar charge related to the new tax law. Here 138 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: to help us understand what's going on in the world 139 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: of banking is Chris Whalen, the chairman of Whalen Global Advisors. Chris, 140 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: A pleasure always to have you on. Happy New Year 141 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: to you. Can you tell us your thoughts and reaction 142 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: to the report from JP Morgan Chase. UM wasn't a 143 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: bad report, as you said. I mean, it was down 144 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: because of the the attacked adjustment, but even if you factor 145 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: that in him, the large banks aren't growing very much. Uh. 146 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 1: The real winner today was P n C, which had 147 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 1: a tremendous quarter. They're taking share on the institutional side. 148 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: They're taking share in the mortgage market, believe it or not, 149 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: whereas Wells and JP and Bank America are all backing 150 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: away from that consumer loan sector. So it's really a 151 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: tale of two industries. That's what we have here, PIM, Chris, 152 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: you see a tale of two industries. It's also, uh, 153 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: many many different tales baked into the same earnings report. 154 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 1: Before I get the idea of P and C and 155 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: other regionals taking business away from Wall Street, I want 156 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 1: to dig into some of the details that we learned 157 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: from JP Morgan today. UM a lot of different stories. 158 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: We had, of course attack story, we had charge offs 159 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 1: or not charge offs. But the amount of money that 160 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: JP Morgan set aside to cover credit card loan losses 161 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: increase more than people had expected. You saw fixed income 162 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 1: trading revenues decline much more than expected, even after stripping 163 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: out a one time effect from the new tax bill. 164 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: What are you focused on the most and UH how 165 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: how should people really be reading this? I think most 166 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: of the big consumer lenders, especially the credit card lenders, 167 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: are a little bit worried about future losses. We've been 168 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: going through a very very easy period largely due to 169 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,559 Speaker 1: the set um, so you've had you know, very It's 170 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,239 Speaker 1: like we shifted the entire matrix for credit a full category, 171 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: and non investment grade companies could raise money investment grade 172 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: spread and so on, So that's part of it. Overall, 173 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: provisions that JP were actually down slightly from the previous quarter. 174 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: But you're right, credit card are is what they're thinking 175 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 1: about in the future. On the trading side, again, it's 176 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: the FED. The Fed has put the entire uh fixed 177 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: income market into uh an induced coma because they have 178 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: all of these securities on their book and they don't 179 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: hedge them. There's the mortgage markets found thirty percent this year, 180 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: So you don't have interest rate hedging the way you've 181 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: had in the path. This comes right out of the 182 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: pocket of the street firms who served these constituencies. And 183 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 1: I think you know, given it, the Fed is not 184 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: going to sell anything in their portfolio. This is very important. Uh, 185 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: They're simply going to let it run off. We could 186 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: have uh subdued trading volumes for the major bank for 187 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: the next five years. That's where we're looking at. Lisa 188 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: Chris Whalen talk about p n C. They benefited from 189 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: some higher interest rates, so they could obviously charge more 190 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 1: for their loans, also growth in the commercial lending business, 191 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: but they also got a boost because of the tax overhaul. Yes, 192 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: interestingly enough, it was actually a benefit for them. You know, 193 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: there's two sides to the tax issue. If on the 194 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: one hand, you've lost a lot of money in the past, 195 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: you have to reduce the value of your your your 196 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: deferred tax asset. On the other hand, if you had 197 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: taxes you hadn't paid yet deferred taxes, that's now lower 198 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: and it's a benefit. In the case of p mc so. 199 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: You know, it's very interesting how you have to read 200 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 1: through the notes. You guys of Bloomberg are very good 201 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: at it. But each bank has its own story. You know, 202 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 1: City is going to write off twenty billion dollars in 203 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 1: tax loss assets, but other banks you could have benefit 204 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: from it. So it really is a very particular analysis 205 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: in each case. Chris, you said that PNC benefited from 206 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: an increase in consumer lending, and some of the big 207 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: banks have really pulled back from that area. Do you 208 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: expect JP Morgan and other big banks City Group maybe 209 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: when they announced Tuesday to say or hint that they're 210 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: going to expand a little bit more in consumer lending 211 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: since it has been so profitable. Not in mortgages. You know, 212 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 1: P and T has actually been growing their mortgage business. 213 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: They've been acquiring servicing assets and they like it um 214 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 1: But the larger banks, you know, you remember back in 215 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: two thousand fifteen when Jamie Diamond very publicly said he 216 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: was getting out of the fah A market. Today there's 217 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: only two banks in that fah A Jenny May market 218 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: really well Sin Flagstar. The rest of them have left 219 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: because they don't like getting fined by the Department of Justice. UM. 220 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: The other issue is profitability. Most mortgage lenders, both banks 221 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: and non banks, last year were barely making money. So 222 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: it's a tough business. And Wells Bank America particularly have 223 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 1: been outbidding for jumbo collateral because they put the loans 224 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: on their book. They are the loss when they buy 225 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: the loan, but after they collect servicing fees for three 226 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: or four years, it ends up being, you know, a 227 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: single digit kind of profit trade. That's a tough business. 228 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: I see a lot of small banks selling mortgage UH 229 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: notes for examples. They can work with the Homeland Bank 230 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: in Chicago, but they keep the servicing because they realize 231 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 1: that it's a nice business if you do it right. 232 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: But being a Jenny May seller servicers top, you know 233 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: you're facing the government. And even though the servicing fees 234 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 1: are almost twice what you get for a fan your 235 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: Freddy loan, you make mistakes, you pay, and you're kind 236 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: of in this UH really difficult situation between the CFPP 237 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: on the one hand, who doesn't want you to foreclose, 238 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: and then the SA Chase says if you don't foreclose 239 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: in eight days at the fault you basically lose your 240 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: right to make an insurance claim. So it's a very 241 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: complicated business. It is the lowest return asset for a 242 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: Thank Lisa. That's that's the problem with residential mortgage lending 243 00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: to god Frank triple the costs of the industry. Chris Whalen, 244 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Chris Whalen is 245 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, which right now we want 246 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: to focus on the bond market. Dr Lacy Hunt joins 247 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: us now. He's executive vice president and chief economists at 248 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: Hoisington Investment Management, which overseas four point three billion dollars, 249 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: and he comes to us from Austin, Texas. Dr Hunt, 250 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. I particularly 251 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: wanted to touch base with you this week because there's 252 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: been a lot of discussion about longer term yields going higher. 253 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: We saw some action to that effect this week and 254 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: inflationary pressures that would force the Fed to hike faster 255 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: and allow longer term yields to rise further. As a 256 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: longtime investor in long dated treasuries, are you changing your 257 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: strategy and do you expect this sell off in longer 258 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 1: term rates to accelerate? No? I do not there are 259 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: many factors, far too many to mention that um allow 260 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: short allow the long term rates to rise over the 261 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: short run, But the economy is too fundamentally weak and 262 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: the pattern toward longer term disinflation is strong, and so 263 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: that while the rates can arise as they have done 264 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: this week, in my opinion, they will not be able 265 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: to stay up. Doctor, aren't you say that the economy 266 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: is too weak? A lot of people think that the 267 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: economy is fairly strong and accelerating to what can you 268 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: point that would sort of edify this belief that the 269 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: economy is perhaps weaker than people think. Well, the surface 270 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: indicators of the economy are strong. We've had three quarters 271 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 1: of three percent growth. However, the the pylons of the 272 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 1: US economy are continuing to weaken, and very very substantially so, 273 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 1: most most predominantly as a result of the of the 274 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: fell reserves policies. There has been a very substantial slowdown 275 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: in monetary growth at a time when the velocity of 276 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: money is the lowest since the late nineteen and the 277 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: Fed is engaging in a program that will significantly slow 278 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 1: monetary growth further at being the balance sheet normalization. I 279 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: realized that um. A lot of folks don't pay much 280 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 1: attention to this. It's not in the news headlines, and 281 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: the presumption maybe that will Quantitative easing didn't boost the 282 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 1: money supply, quantitative tightening won't, won't depress it. But the 283 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 1: the underlying models that have been verified over time indicate 284 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: that money supply growth is going to slow very, very dramatically, 285 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: and that while inflation can rise from time to time, 286 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: the slow down in monetary growth and velocity will mean 287 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: that prices will move lower over time, not higher. Lacy 288 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 1: Hunt a bond market a bull run for the bond market. 289 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: I've been listening to people talk about the end of 290 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 1: a thirty year bull market in bonds. Do you agree? No? 291 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: I think the ultimate blows and bonds are still in 292 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: the future. Path will not be easy. It has not 293 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: been easy to get to the point where we are today. 294 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: Another problem that the economy has is that although the 295 00:18:54,600 --> 00:19:00,399 Speaker 1: consumer is spending, the consumer has been left very badly 296 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: behind in this expansion, and the consumer has uh barrod 297 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: a substantial amount of additional money to continue the spending, 298 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: which means because of a of the one of the 299 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,919 Speaker 1: lowest saving rates in US economic history, the consumer sector 300 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:23,119 Speaker 1: is very vulnerable to business cycle risks. Dr Hunter, have 301 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: you been I know that you're a long term investor 302 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: and you're not looking for short term moves to capitalize on. 303 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: But do you add to your longer term treasury holdings 304 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: when there is a bit of a sell off with 305 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 1: the belief that longer term rates are likely to go 306 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: lower and possibly much lower? When whenever we receive additional funds, 307 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: we invest them immediately and we put them in the 308 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: long end of the market, just as we do for 309 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: the clients that are already with us. We we don't 310 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:02,360 Speaker 1: want to be out of position as the economy unfolds. 311 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: There were numerous instants last year year before when the 312 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 1: interest rates rose, but when night, when seventeen was all over, 313 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 1: the long term rates actually declined. Now I might say 314 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: that we fully expect the FED will push up the 315 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 1: short term rates. That has that ability, but the long 316 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: term rates are determined by the Fishery equation, which which 317 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: says that the long treasury rates are primarily determined by 318 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: inflationary expectations. And recognizing that the FED will push the 319 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 1: short rates up, long rates will not follow. The yield 320 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 1: curve will continue to flatten and this will this is 321 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: a a cause. It is and it is a symptom 322 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 1: of the monetary titan hand effect, if you will, But 323 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 1: it will also have a cause. Dr Lacy Hunt, chief 324 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 1: economist Hoisington's Investment Management. Facebook shares as my co host 325 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: pim Fox was mentioning earlier down more than four percent, 326 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: after the news that it would be making some pretty 327 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: profound changes to the way people experience the social media giant. 328 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,199 Speaker 1: Share ovid joins us now she's a Bloomberg gad Fly 329 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: columnist covering all things tech. Shara just first give us 330 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: a sense of how significant the change is that Facebook 331 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: is making and just lay out the details of what 332 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: the changes are. Sure, it's hard to know for certain, 333 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: but it does seem like this is going to be 334 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 1: a very significant change to how Facebook operates. So what 335 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg outlined late Thursday was a change in how 336 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: Facebook prioritizes what people see in the new seat in 337 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: the main stream of Facebook posts, and what they're going 338 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: to try to encourage more of is their prioritizing posts 339 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: that encourages meaningful social interactions by by Facebook's understanding of 340 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: that term, and that means things like, you know, post 341 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: from a family member who's grieving on Facebook and invites 342 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: kind of long comments back and forth that will get prioritized. 343 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: So will things, um, you know, news, news articles that 344 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: generate kind of a lot of interest and back and 345 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: forth posts and messages from people. So that's the kind 346 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: of thing they're trying to optimize sports rather than the 347 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,959 Speaker 1: kind of passive I kind of look at it and 348 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 1: then move on kind of posts and videos. Sura. Is 349 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: this going to involve a technical, algorithmic kind of change? 350 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,360 Speaker 1: Is this a technical issue for Facebook? Yeah? I mean 351 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,479 Speaker 1: this is how Facebook basically age of strategies that they 352 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: change the algorithm, and the the algorithm, they change the 353 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: inputs for the algorithm, I should say, and then that 354 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: changes what kinds of things people are likely to see 355 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 1: more of or less of in the new sheet. Okay, 356 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 1: So does this also mean that there are companies and 357 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: individuals who are just as smart as the people at 358 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: Facebook that will be able to figure out a way 359 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: to work around this, because doesn't the current problem indicate 360 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: that there are a lot of very intelligent people out 361 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: there who may not agree with the way Mark Zuckerberg 362 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: thinks you should engage with Facebook? Yes, I think that's 363 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 1: a good point. I think one of the lessons of 364 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: the last couple of years is that their companies, people 365 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 1: and propagandists, including those back by the Kremlin, who figured 366 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: out how to gain Facebook system um in damaging ways. 367 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 1: And there are no guarantees that when Facebook changes there 368 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: the kinds of post that prioritize people won't figure out 369 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: how to gain it to prioritize things that are not 370 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: the meaningful social interactions what Facebook wants, but more of 371 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: the kind of damaging but still engaging kind of kind 372 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: of Facebook messages. So yeah, there's no guarantee that this 373 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: fix of Facebook in the way that Mark Zuckerberg intends 374 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 1: and share. Mark Zuckerberg even admitted that probably the changes 375 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 1: would mean people would end up spending less time on 376 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 1: the social media app. And I'm just wondering from a 377 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: business perspective, how substantially could this cut into their revenues 378 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 1: and their potential growth. Look, there is a direct relationship 379 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: between the amount of time that people spend on Facebook 380 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 1: and Facebook's resident right, because more time on Facebook gives 381 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: Facebook more slots to sell advertising, which is how Facebook 382 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 1: makes money. So if Mark Zuckerberg is saying people collectively 383 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 1: are likely to spend less time on Facebook. That likely 384 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: means a hit to Facebook's revenue growth, at least in 385 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: the short term. And it's really hard to know by 386 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: how much Facebook's revenue is the result of many factors 387 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 1: and it's a little bit hard to predict what's going 388 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 1: to happen. But look, the reason the share prices falling 389 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: today is because people are worried about the implications of 390 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: people spending less time on Facebook. Well, just to give 391 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: the numbers to offer the perspective, revenue for the latest 392 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 1: fiscal year, I believe we're talking about something like thirty 393 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 1: six billion, thirty six and a half billion dollars, of 394 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 1: which more than fifteen billion is profit net income. Yeah, 395 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 1: I mean, look, the last couple of years, Facebook has 396 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 1: been the tech industry's best combination of fast revenue growth 397 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: and very fat profits, and it's it's been an incredible story. 398 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,400 Speaker 1: But we've seen some of the damaging effects of facebook 399 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 1: incredible business, which is it's become a place that people 400 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: don't like to spend their time, or at least say 401 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 1: they don't like to spend their time. Though the numbers 402 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,960 Speaker 1: don't necessarily write it up and it's become a place 403 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 1: that's invited political and regulatory scrutiny because it's been such 404 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 1: an inviting home for people to spread misinformation, fake news, propaganda, 405 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: and that's what Facebook is trying to kind of counteract. 406 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 1: Just real quick, it seems like this is going to 407 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 1: change media strategies as far as how much they engage 408 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,959 Speaker 1: with Facebook, since their posts will be deep prioritized. Can 409 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 1: you give us a sense of how big of a 410 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,239 Speaker 1: of a change this is going to be. Yeah, this 411 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,360 Speaker 1: is big news for any company that is relying on 412 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: finding customers of potential customers on Facebook and then includes 413 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: news organizations, and you can imagine inside those organizations today 414 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: there is going to be a lot of hand ringing. 415 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 1: They're already annoyed at how much they rely on Facebook 416 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: and how often Facebook changes its own rules, and this 417 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 1: is just another way for them to, you know, feel 418 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: pretty annoyed at Facebook. Thanks very much for being with us. 419 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 1: Shira Oviday is our technology columnist for Bloomberg gad Fly. 420 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 421 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 422 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm 423 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. 424 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us 425 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio