WEBVTT - Week 16 NFL Bets: Nick's Picks 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. CIBO index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.920 xsp can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.160 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cebo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be too. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with CBO company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.680 disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:45.080 Welcome in episode one oh nine, What's Right with Nick Wright, 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:52.319 our Week sixteen NFL gambling show, and right as we're 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:55.680 about to record, we have listen. Today's going to be 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:59.280 an important episode because we are recording on Thursday, you 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:04.280 will hear it on Friday. Typically that we don't really 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.560 discuss the Thursday night game because it's not actionable for 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:12.760 you guys. However, there is a nice symmetry between the 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.760 story of the Prince that was promised in the Jacksonville 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:22.120 Jaguars who play Thursday Night and Our Picks. Season started 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:26.880 off with great optimism, had some really nice early moments 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:31.800 and then a deadly cold streak in the middle of 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:36.840 the year that seemingly left the team for dead, and 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.520 then a surge at the end. And are they going 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:44.480 to sneak into the playoffs? Well, Ryan Tannehill's done for 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.960 the year. The Jags control their own destiny. By the 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.040 time you hear this, the Jags will have beaten the 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.800 New York Jets on Thursday night. I'm calling my shot, 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:58.560 much like our picks, written off for dead after some 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.720 disastrous weeks, and then last week, while we did not 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:06.720 do a show, we did publicly post five picks. And 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.480 if those aren't five perfect picks, I don't know what is. 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:12.840 We'll start with the one loser, Minnesota minus three and 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:15.160 a half. Well, they won by three and had the 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:18.120 greatest comeback in the history of the sport. I had 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:23.280 the guts, the courage to lay three points with the 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:28.560 Broncos backup quarterback against Arizona, and that was never in doubt. 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:32.560 Pittsburgh plus three against Carolina, I said on the TV 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:38.000 show the coaching mismatch between Tomlin and Wilkes the Steelers, 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:41.720 I didn't care it was Trubisky, the Steelers getting three points. 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:46.680 Carolina way overvalued everyone's like, oh, they can make the playoffs. Nonsense, 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:51.440 total nonsense. They went out right, the Giants plus four 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.760 and a half. They went out right and our right move. 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:58.120 I told you guys, the Bills don't blow people out. 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:02.040 The Bills were very lucky to win that game. They 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.520 Josh Allen fumbled for a second consecutive play with the 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.639 Bills down eight, but they recovered it. Credit to the 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:11.040 Bills for it taking care of business. And I guess 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:13.680 you could say we got a little lucky not to 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.320 end with a push there because the Bills could have 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:18.520 run into the end zone. They did and they end 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.959 up kicking the field goal. But regardless, that's a four 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.720 and one week. So our record on the season is 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:30.000 now thirty six, thirty nine and two, three games under 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:33.520 five hundred. Much like the Jacksonville Jaguars, as we record 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:36.960 our two games under five hundred, with a chance to 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:39.480 get hot and be the team no one wants to 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.840 see come the postseason. All we need to Oh, oh 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.839 you think I'm drunking, Oh you think the I'm telling 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:46.400 you right now? 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:50.360 You think the the feal boys certainly don't want to 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:51.320 see him sat in? 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.920 Okay, that's true, and and that's the other thing in 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.400 the C block. In our third segment of today's show, 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:03.000 we're going to discuss in full uh demands break you know, 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:06.720 the ten Crack Commandments from Biggie. You're familiar to the song. 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.080 Oh no, yeah, I can't let you just school me 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:11.880 on some Biggie stuff. I'm just gonna say that I 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:13.520 know what you're talking about, and we're gonna move on 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:13.960 from it. 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.279 Well, you, no, it's not. I mean, it's just because 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:18.919 I mean it came out five years before you were born. 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:23.800 But don't get high on your own supply the oh yeah, 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.720 the Scarface Okay, well scarf, yes, so some of it 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:33.280 from Starface to movie. Yes. Uh. And Demonse broke eight 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:38.120 of the ten Gambling Commandments on Sunday and it led lost, 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:43.640 well lost. Now you're breaking the ninth, which is denial, 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:47.360 which is being in denial about your mistakes, which will 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:50.719 lead to more of the same mistake And so we 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:54.360 we will discuss that later. But we are right there 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:58.160 alive for a winning season. Here's an amazing fact before 0:04:58.240 --> 0:05:01.240 we get to our picks this week. Every week on 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:07.520 TV I take my three favorite picks from the Gambling 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:12.800 Show and make them my three television picks, despite being 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.359 thirty six, thirty nine and two on the Gambling Show, 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:20.599 I am on TV at sixty one percent against the 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:24.200 spread and over the last six weeks of television picks 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:29.920 thirteen three and two. So somehow I am kind of 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.000 dancing through the rain drops on TV with the picks. 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.760 The larger pick sample not quite as good. But they're 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:39.440 all going to be good this week. I love them all. 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:44.039 We're red hot. We're making money Texas Dolly Doyle Brunson, 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.440 who tails our picks, He's making money. Everyone's making money 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:51.440 right now, except for my co host Demanse, who got 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:52.279 crushed on Sunday. 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:53.320 And we will discuss. 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:57.800 We will start here first pick of the week, getting 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:02.240 back on that Giants horse Giant plus four at Minnesota. 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.640 The Vikings are not good. I don't know the Giants 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:09.840 are good either. Back, I think the Giants are very 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:14.320 good either. However, the Giants know that they essentially they 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:18.320 can lock up a wildcard spot with a win this weekend. 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:23.680 After the big win against Washington Minnesota, I would imagine 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:27.919 there has to be something of a letdown after the 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:35.960 biggest comeback in an NFL history and the Vikings a letdown. Yeah, no, 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:42.520 it's such an emotional comeback victory. Yeah, draining exactly a 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:45.359 bit of an emotional letdown. Also, the Vikings are in 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:50.479 a weird spot where they it's not impossible, but it's 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:54.120 almost impossible for them to get the one seed. They're 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.760 not going to fall to the four line, so they 0:06:56.800 --> 0:07:00.080 are essentially locked into the two or the three. Now, 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:03.240 now you can argue the three is the two is 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:05.920 way more valuable than the three because you would then 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:09.200 get to host theoretically San Francisco instead of going to 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:12.520 San Francisco. I understand that part of it, but I 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:15.440 think the Giants defense will be able to give Minnesota 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.280 some measure of trouble. I don't know that the Giants 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:22.040 are gonna win, but four points this should be two points. 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:26.320 It's four points. It obviously crosses the key three. So 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.520 I like the Giants plus four is our first pick 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:28.920 of the week. 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.960 Doesn't seem a little too easy to you, as you know, 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.280 being that the Giants tend to cover against the spread. 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:36.440 I think they're ten and four against the spread this 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:39.640 well this year, yep, and Minnesota never blows up teams. 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:44.960 Well, the too easy is a first cousin of be 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.360 careful right, or where it's like, wait, they're daring you 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:52.280 to pick this. I really only worry about that. I 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:55.920 shouldn't say only, but that typically is when a favorite 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.840 looks too easy, you know, like when it's like, wait, 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:00.920 this team should be favored by happen the only favorite 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.720 by three? Those are the ones that scare me. It's 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:09.080 because the public does not typically bang underdogs, and so 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:14.280 if an underdog line, If I like the underdog and 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.760 it seems like the lion's mispriced, those are my favorite bets. 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:20.920 If I like a favorite and it seems like it's 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.920 way mispriced, those feel trappy, Like wait, what does Vegas 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.679 know that I don't know? But the Giants plus four, 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:30.000 I just think it's I think this is a three 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:36.000 point game in either direction. Next Cleveland minus three against 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:44.240 New Orleans. All Right, Deshaun Watson is not going to consistently. 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:47.080 He's going to get better to a degree. Now, is 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:49.079 he gonna be worth that money? Is that going to 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:51.760 be a good contract? It doesn't look like it, but 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:56.720 he's going to be better than he's been. Additionally, the 0:08:56.920 --> 0:09:00.720 Saints are awful and they have the worst coach in 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:03.880 the NFL, and I'm including that Hackett in that they 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:06.679 have the worst coach in the NFL. The fact that 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:12.079 this is not in Cleveland also is sneaky. Still alive 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.040 for the playoffs, They're not in my mind, but Matt 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:17.880 at six and eight, they're like, if we run the table, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.520 win some tiebreakers, nine and eight could get us in. 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:23.200 I think Cleveland will run the hell out of the ball. 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:28.520 I think Miles Garrett will force at least one fumble 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:32.520 on Andy Dalton or Taysom Hill, whomever the Saints have 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:36.400 played quarterback on any given snap. This should be Cleveland. 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.520 I believe minus six it's Cleveland minus three. 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:42.000 I like Cleveland. 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:46.520 I don't think we have bet on Cleveland once all year, 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:51.319 and I like them in this spot at home. The 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:55.720 only hesitation I have is bad weather, snowy weather. I 0:09:55.880 --> 0:10:01.400 tend to favor underdogs because but this in since Cleveland's 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.520 kind of built for the bad weather, because they will 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:05.480 just run the football if you let them. 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:07.640 So you think they'll have like an edge, and. 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.240 Well, yeah, I think if the if the conditions are poor, 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:13.760 they can just hand the ball to Nick Chubb thirty 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.280 five times Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt They're gonna be 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:21.360 fine with that. So I like Cleveland minus the three. Uh, 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:23.000 is there something you want to ask about the game? 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:23.680 Man? 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:25.439 That over under is probably gonna be the lowest that 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.720 it's been since I've been alive. Maybe really Yeah, because 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.280 of the weather, yeah, and the teams. 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:34.440 Yeah. So let me look and see what the total 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:38.600 in the game is. In the Cleveland game, Oh my god, 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:42.520 that is the That is going to be the lowest 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:47.480 total in any game in years. In twenty years. The 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.320 totals thirty two and a half. That's an Army Navy total. 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:56.160 So Navy, Yeah, Army Navy. They play teams, yeah, they 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.720 play and it's a It goes under almost every single year. 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:07.240 So a total that low, again pushes you towards the 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.880 underdog because you're getting points. They don't expect a lot 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:13.160 of points. I understand that. I'm gonna stay strong with 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.520 Cleveland at Cleveland minus three. That's our second pick of 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:21.280 the week. Third pick, the Bills don't blow people out. 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:26.680 Chicago getting eight and a half against Buffalo, it's just 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:31.760 too many points. And I would imagine again, the weather 0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:34.280 is going to be a massive factor in any game 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:38.000 that's being played in the Northeast this weekend. Also, Josh 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:42.400 Allen popped up as a limited participant on the Bills 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:47.120 practice report for the first time since before Thanksgiving. They 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:51.280 rant listen that Miami game was critical to them. All 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.839 these games are critical because they can't lose and stay 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:58.679 the one seed. The Miami game was extra critical because 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.319 had they lost that one, Miami would be to facto 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.200 half game out of first place in the division and 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.880 Buffalo could have fallen all the way to the five line. 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:13.120 Buffalo had Miami last week, huge game. They have Cincinnati 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:14.560 next week. 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:17.040 That's interesting, huge game. 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:19.920 So Buffalo right now could be the one, the two, 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.199 or the three. Same with Kansas City, same with Cincinnati, 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.920 so that's a massive game. They are now going to 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:30.959 be playing in horrific conditions against a Bears team that 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.000 the Bears weakness will They have a lot of them, 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.280 but they can't block for Justin Fields. But he's such 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:40.320 a magician. He gets out and runs. We saw some 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.960 of the most amazing quarterback runs we've ever seen watching 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:48.679 him this weekend. Their other giant weakness is every aspect 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:54.000 of their defense, particularly their past defense. In these conditions, 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.480 I don't think there's gonna be a lot of passing now. 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:01.120 Josh Allen is a deadly weapon with his leg. He 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:05.600 ran so much and got so banged up against the 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.880 bank against the Dolphins. I would imagine if the Bills 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.800 have any sense whatsoever, they are going to try to 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.719 make this a fast game. Hand the ball to their 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:19.520 running backs, keep Josh out of harm's way. That leads 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:21.760 to a low scoring game. The Bears are going to 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.680 be running the ball that leads to a low scoring game. 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:28.679 The Bears, as they showed last week against the Eagles, 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:32.160 even when they're down double digits, are not out of it. 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:36.480 From a covering perspective, Getting eight and a half is 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:40.120 such a great number to where even if they're down 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:45.280 ten late, if they're down fourteen late, hell fifteen late, 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:49.400 you're still alive for the cover. And the Bills, aside 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:55.200 from the Patriots, have they They have not beaten anyone 0:13:55.280 --> 0:14:02.319 by two scores since the first week of October when 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.680 they played the Steelers and beat them thirty five to three. 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.880 That's the other than the again, other than the Patriots, 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.800 who they beat twenty four to ten. So that's a blowout, 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.640 but it's a low scoring blowout. They have not blown 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:18.280 anyone out in two plus months. Chicago plus eight and 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:22.560 a half. Next, the Raiders getting two and a half 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:29.560 at Pittsburgh. This one's pretty simple. Obviously, you'd rather it 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.000 be three, There's no doubt about it. You'd rather it 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:36.640 be three. But I actually don't know if the three 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.920 is quite as valuable when it's going to again be 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.400 these weather and kicking conditions because you got miss extra points, 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.800 missed field goals. The Raiders are in the same bucket 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.800 as the Browns, where they're still alive thanks to being 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.600 six and eight, where they're not actually alive, but they're 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.840 not going to give up on the season. Steelers, by 0:14:56.880 --> 0:14:58.760 the way, in that same bucket at six and eight. 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:03.120 I just think this is the Raiders after the win 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:08.400 last week against the Patriots, which what got overshadowed because 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.040 of how the game ended was that the Raiders were 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:16.480 the far better team. The Raiders outplayed the Patriots soundly 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:21.040 throughout the game, car through an unfathomably bad pick six 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.080 that got the Patriots back in it. The Patriots then 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:25.680 field goal, field goal, field goal, They all of a 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.280 sudden have a lead, and then the Raiders have a 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:33.480 magnificent final drive complete a fourth and ten, a great 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.160 ball to kill and Cole in the corner of the 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:36.640 end zone. I don't know if he was in or out, 0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.120 but they called him in in order to tie the game. 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:43.560 And then they had the stirring Chandler Jones mush face 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:48.320 on Mac Jones. The Raiders, I think win this game outright. 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:50.840 If they don't, this feels like it absolutely could be 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.600 a sixteen to fourteen game where even if they don't win, 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:55.680 the two and a half is enough to cover. I 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:59.040 like the Raiders now. Last week I picked the Steelers 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:02.920 because the coaching edge Tomlin versus Wilkes. There again is 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:06.680 a pretty significant coaching edge Tomlin versus McDaniel. But I 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:10.080 think the Raiders have an overwhelming talent edge in this game. 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.120 The Steelers don't run the ball all that well, and 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.520 this is gonna be a run game. The Raiders plus 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:20.600 two and a half. And then lastly Miami minus four 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:27.280 against Green Bay. I think right now this is an 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:32.960 undervalued Dolphins team and an overvalued Packers team. So the Packers, 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:37.640 everyone's given them credit because, oh they're alive and they 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:40.840 could make the postseason. They're not making the postseason. Oh 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.320 they've they've turned their season around. My question would be this, 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.960 have the Packers turned their season around or have the 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.680 Packers simply gotten to the part of the schedule where 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:53.000 they get the Bears and then the Rams. I think 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.840 it's more that Miami, on the other hand, I thought 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:01.040 really played well against Buffalo. I thought they're running. I 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:04.280 thought they showed you in the Buffalo game. What if 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.680 a team sells out to just stop the pass what 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:11.560 they can do on the ground. Miami also is desperate 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:14.200 for a win, having lost three in a row. They're 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:16.760 not going to miss the playoffs, but they need another 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:21.040 win to ensure they don't miss the playoffs. Them being 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:25.359 favored by only four points at home in what is 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.359 a game that should not be drastically affected by weather 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:32.320 because it's in Miami is disrespectful to what the Dolphins 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:35.080 have accomplished throughout the year. I think this should be 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:38.440 Miami minus six and a half. It's Miami minus four. 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:44.359 I don't think that the Packers can stay attached to 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:48.040 Hill and Waddle all game. And here is an amazing stat. 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:51.080 How many games this year do you think Aaron Rodgers 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:52.960 has thrown for three hundred yards? 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:54.760 One zero? 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:57.960 How many games this year, is Aaron Rodgers thrown for 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.720 two hundred and sixty yards? 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:02.280 You want to give it a guess? 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.520 No, No, you don't know, Okay, no problem. 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:08.280 Zero zero, okay, two sixty? Wow? 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.920 To not throw for two sixty. The reason that people 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.680 are like, oh, the Packers, if they get hot, if 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:22.280 they sneak in, if it's pretending they have the Aaron 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:25.760 Rodgers that the two years he won League MVP, the 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:30.639 last two years had a touchdown interception ratio of eighty 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.760 five to nine, eighty five to nine over two years 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.560 such an interception. This year it's twenty three to ten. 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:38.800 And he hasn't thrown for more than two hundred and 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:42.720 fifty five yards once all season. So for all those reasons, 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.080 I think Miami is the better team. I think Miami 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.600 is undervalued here. I like Miami minus four and so 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.119 that Miami's the pick. So our five picks for the 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:55.199 week coming off a four and one week where the 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:58.600 one loss was by a half point. The Giants getting 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:03.200 four in minutes, the Bears getting eight and a half 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:08.560 at home against Buffalo, Cleveland laying three against New Orleans, 0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:11.800 the Raiders getting two and a half at Pittsburgh, and 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:16.080 Miami laying four against Green Bay. There's our five picks. 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.920 We have a very interesting second segment coming where we 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:23.000 put the games in stay aways, be carefuls and perfectly priced. 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:28.399 We have five a full five stay away games because 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:31.640 of quarterback injuries over the course of the last few 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:34.919 weeks that affect these games. We will discuss all of 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.560 those games next. What's right. 0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:46.720 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:50.119 inspiring true story about Anthony Roblast, who defined every expectation 0:19:50.200 --> 0:19:53.080 to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:56.680 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg, 0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.879 evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.399 relling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:06.960 including Jarrell Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Tanya, and 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:11.240 Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.360 All right, welcome back. In episode one oh nine, Week 0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:19.080 sixteen gambling show, we just gave you our five picks. 0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:22.320 We'll recap them real quick here again. Giants plus four, 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:24.879 Bears plus eight and a half, Raiders plus two and 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:28.880 a half, Cleveland minus three, and Miami minus four. We now, 0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:30.840 as we always have you new to the Gambling Show. 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:34.080 The way we do it is we take all the 0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:36.720 games of the weekend and then we put them in 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.679 three categories, the picks we're gonna make, the stay aways, 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:42.440 the beat carefuls, and the perfectly priced. This is the 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:47.640 most stayaways we've ever had. We have five stay aways 0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:52.080 this week Houston at Tennessee, Seattle at Kansas City, Atlanta 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:56.960 at Baltimore, Billy Dallas, Denver at the Rams. So we'll 0:20:56.960 --> 0:21:00.960 explain them all quickly, but there's most of them involve 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:07.280 quarterback questions. So Tennessee is laying three at home against Houston. 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:11.320 Ryan Tannehill is out for the season, so it's Malik 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:17.000 Willis play. Malik Willis has not shown the ability yet 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:21.400 to be an NFL quarterback. With that said, the Texans 0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:25.000 have not shown the ability yet to win football games. 0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:27.760 And I understand they came this close to being Dallas, 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:31.479 this even closer to beating the Chiefs. I don't have 0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:35.640 a read on if coming that close and losing those 0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:39.080 games is going to be galvanizing for them, Like we're 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.040 that close getting over the hump or if they're gonna 0:21:41.040 --> 0:21:44.480 be like it's Christmas, those were our chances. We stink 0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:48.720 we're mailing it in that plus the quarterback issue in 0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:50.520 Tennessee just don't bet on. 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:51.720 This game, all right. 0:21:51.800 --> 0:21:56.280 So so, knowing the Tannehills out, they did the minus 0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:59.320 three thing, what I want to say is, I think 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:01.960 Tennessee is I don't give it crap about Tanneill not 0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:04.600 being in. I think they're gonna be that team that 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:07.200 exposed them again for the Houston Texans, and I think 0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:08.119 they're gonna blow them out. 0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:09.640 And I think the minus three. Hey, I'm not telling 0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:11.080 you guys a bet on it, but I think the 0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:11.720 minus three. 0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:13.919 Is so one of your picks this week if you 0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:19.960 hadn't retired from gambling on Sunday, would be Tennessee minus three. Yeah. Possibly, 0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:23.240 but it sounds like definitely. Yeah, sounds like definitely Tennessee 0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:26.080 minus three. Okay. I'm not saying that's a wrong pick. 0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:30.199 I'm simply saying it's too much uncertainty for me for 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:33.280 that to be on my card. Seattle at Kansas City 0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:37.439 minus ten is a stay away purely for this reason. 0:22:38.359 --> 0:22:45.720 I don't know if Kansas here's the deal. There is 0:22:45.760 --> 0:22:51.160 a possibility that Kansas City is not as good as 0:22:51.200 --> 0:22:52.280 I believe they are. 0:22:54.119 --> 0:22:54.680 Here we go. 0:22:55.680 --> 0:23:01.399 There is another possibility that Kansas City is doing the 0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:05.679 bare minimum it needs to do in these games to 0:23:05.920 --> 0:23:10.440 book a win and to stay healthy. Because one thing 0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:16.000 that is noteworthy is the Chiefs haven't had a player 0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:21.120 injured in a game in three weeks. That's almost impossible 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:24.200 in the NFL. Now, some of that's luck, but also 0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:27.800 some of that is you can coach a certain way 0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:31.400 and play call a certain way to minimize injury risk. 0:23:32.119 --> 0:23:35.120 It also minimizes explosiveness, and you know what I mean, 0:23:35.119 --> 0:23:38.560 a lot of things, and I do wonder they got 0:23:38.600 --> 0:23:42.680 up twenty seven to nothing on Denver and then when 0:23:42.880 --> 0:23:46.119 Uber conservative except for Mahomes, made some big mistakes and 0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:48.520 got away with a win against Houston. 0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:51.800 They were taking Kelsey out a lot, It seemed like 0:23:53.080 --> 0:23:54.879 taking They were taking Travis Kelsey. 0:23:54.600 --> 0:23:57.840 On a lot out of the game exactly in yes, 0:23:58.080 --> 0:24:01.239 because I and I think that's now They could have 0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:04.600 looked that could have cost him against Houston, But I 0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:08.040 don't think they anticipated Bucker missing the kicks, the two fumbles, 0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:12.280 all those things, right, So my point is against Seattle. 0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:16.200 I just I don't know if the Chiefs right now, 0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:19.200 unless the other team turns the ball over a bunch 0:24:19.520 --> 0:24:23.040