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Speaker 3: Welcome in episode one oh nine, What's Right with Nick Wright,
Speaker 3: our Week sixteen NFL gambling show, and right as we're
Speaker 3: about to record, we have listen. Today's going to be
Speaker 3: an important episode because we are recording on Thursday, you
Speaker 3: will hear it on Friday. Typically that we don't really
Speaker 3: discuss the Thursday night game because it's not actionable for
Speaker 3: you guys. However, there is a nice symmetry between the
Speaker 3: story of the Prince that was promised in the Jacksonville
Speaker 3: Jaguars who play Thursday Night and Our Picks. Season started
Speaker 3: off with great optimism, had some really nice early moments
Speaker 3: and then a deadly cold streak in the middle of
Speaker 3: the year that seemingly left the team for dead, and
Speaker 3: then a surge at the end. And are they going
Speaker 3: to sneak into the playoffs? Well, Ryan Tannehill's done for
Speaker 3: the year. The Jags control their own destiny. By the
Speaker 3: time you hear this, the Jags will have beaten the
Speaker 3: New York Jets on Thursday night. I'm calling my shot,
Speaker 3: much like our picks, written off for dead after some
Speaker 3: disastrous weeks, and then last week, while we did not
Speaker 3: do a show, we did publicly post five picks. And
Speaker 3: if those aren't five perfect picks, I don't know what is.
Speaker 3: We'll start with the one loser, Minnesota minus three and
Speaker 3: a half. Well, they won by three and had the
Speaker 3: greatest comeback in the history of the sport. I had
Speaker 3: the guts, the courage to lay three points with the
Speaker 3: Broncos backup quarterback against Arizona, and that was never in doubt.
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh plus three against Carolina, I said on the TV
Speaker 3: show the coaching mismatch between Tomlin and Wilkes the Steelers,
Speaker 3: I didn't care it was Trubisky, the Steelers getting three points.
Speaker 3: Carolina way overvalued everyone's like, oh, they can make the playoffs. Nonsense,
Speaker 3: total nonsense. They went out right, the Giants plus four
Speaker 3: and a half. They went out right and our right move.
Speaker 3: I told you guys, the Bills don't blow people out.
Speaker 3: The Bills were very lucky to win that game. They
Speaker 3: Josh Allen fumbled for a second consecutive play with the
Speaker 3: Bills down eight, but they recovered it. Credit to the
Speaker 3: Bills for it taking care of business. And I guess
Speaker 3: you could say we got a little lucky not to
Speaker 3: end with a push there because the Bills could have
Speaker 3: run into the end zone. They did and they end
Speaker 3: up kicking the field goal. But regardless, that's a four
Speaker 3: and one week. So our record on the season is
Speaker 3: now thirty six, thirty nine and two, three games under
Speaker 3: five hundred. Much like the Jacksonville Jaguars, as we record
Speaker 3: our two games under five hundred, with a chance to
Speaker 3: get hot and be the team no one wants to
Speaker 3: see come the postseason. All we need to Oh, oh
Speaker 3: you think I'm drunking, Oh you think the I'm telling
Speaker 3: you right now?
Speaker 4: You think the the feal boys certainly don't want to
Speaker 4: see him sat in?
Speaker 3: Okay, that's true, and and that's the other thing in
Speaker 3: the C block. In our third segment of today's show,
Speaker 3: we're going to discuss in full uh demands break you know,
Speaker 3: the ten Crack Commandments from Biggie. You're familiar to the song.
Speaker 4: Oh no, yeah, I can't let you just school me
Speaker 4: on some Biggie stuff. I'm just gonna say that I
Speaker 4: know what you're talking about, and we're gonna move on
Speaker 4: from it.
Speaker 3: Well, you, no, it's not. I mean, it's just because
Speaker 3: I mean it came out five years before you were born.
Speaker 3: But don't get high on your own supply the oh yeah,
Speaker 3: the Scarface Okay, well scarf, yes, so some of it
Speaker 3: from Starface to movie. Yes. Uh. And Demonse broke eight
Speaker 3: of the ten Gambling Commandments on Sunday and it led lost,
Speaker 3: well lost. Now you're breaking the ninth, which is denial,
Speaker 3: which is being in denial about your mistakes, which will
Speaker 3: lead to more of the same mistake And so we
Speaker 3: we will discuss that later. But we are right there
Speaker 3: alive for a winning season. Here's an amazing fact before
Speaker 3: we get to our picks this week. Every week on
Speaker 3: TV I take my three favorite picks from the Gambling
Speaker 3: Show and make them my three television picks, despite being
Speaker 3: thirty six, thirty nine and two on the Gambling Show,
Speaker 3: I am on TV at sixty one percent against the
Speaker 3: spread and over the last six weeks of television picks
Speaker 3: thirteen three and two. So somehow I am kind of
Speaker 3: dancing through the rain drops on TV with the picks.
Speaker 3: The larger pick sample not quite as good. But they're
Speaker 3: all going to be good this week. I love them all.
Speaker 3: We're red hot. We're making money Texas Dolly Doyle Brunson,
Speaker 3: who tails our picks, He's making money. Everyone's making money
Speaker 3: right now, except for my co host Demanse, who got
Speaker 3: crushed on Sunday.
Speaker 2: And we will discuss.
Speaker 3: We will start here first pick of the week, getting
Speaker 3: back on that Giants horse Giant plus four at Minnesota.
Speaker 3: The Vikings are not good. I don't know the Giants
Speaker 3: are good either. Back, I think the Giants are very
Speaker 3: good either. However, the Giants know that they essentially they
Speaker 3: can lock up a wildcard spot with a win this weekend.
Speaker 3: After the big win against Washington Minnesota, I would imagine
Speaker 3: there has to be something of a letdown after the
Speaker 3: biggest comeback in an NFL history and the Vikings a letdown. Yeah, no,
Speaker 3: it's such an emotional comeback victory. Yeah, draining exactly a
Speaker 3: bit of an emotional letdown. Also, the Vikings are in
Speaker 3: a weird spot where they it's not impossible, but it's
Speaker 3: almost impossible for them to get the one seed. They're
Speaker 3: not going to fall to the four line, so they
Speaker 3: are essentially locked into the two or the three. Now,
Speaker 3: now you can argue the three is the two is
Speaker 3: way more valuable than the three because you would then
Speaker 3: get to host theoretically San Francisco instead of going to
Speaker 3: San Francisco. I understand that part of it, but I
Speaker 3: think the Giants defense will be able to give Minnesota
Speaker 3: some measure of trouble. I don't know that the Giants
Speaker 3: are gonna win, but four points this should be two points.
Speaker 3: It's four points. It obviously crosses the key three. So
Speaker 3: I like the Giants plus four is our first pick
Speaker 3: of the week.
Speaker 4: Doesn't seem a little too easy to you, as you know,
Speaker 4: being that the Giants tend to cover against the spread.
Speaker 4: I think they're ten and four against the spread this
Speaker 4: well this year, yep, and Minnesota never blows up teams.
Speaker 3: Well, the too easy is a first cousin of be
Speaker 3: careful right, or where it's like, wait, they're daring you
Speaker 3: to pick this. I really only worry about that. I
Speaker 3: shouldn't say only, but that typically is when a favorite
Speaker 3: looks too easy, you know, like when it's like, wait,
Speaker 3: this team should be favored by happen the only favorite
Speaker 3: by three? Those are the ones that scare me. It's
Speaker 3: because the public does not typically bang underdogs, and so
Speaker 3: if an underdog line, If I like the underdog and
Speaker 3: it seems like the lion's mispriced, those are my favorite bets.
Speaker 3: If I like a favorite and it seems like it's
Speaker 3: way mispriced, those feel trappy, Like wait, what does Vegas
Speaker 3: know that I don't know? But the Giants plus four,
Speaker 3: I just think it's I think this is a three
Speaker 3: point game in either direction. Next Cleveland minus three against
Speaker 3: New Orleans. All Right, Deshaun Watson is not going to consistently.
Speaker 3: He's going to get better to a degree. Now, is
Speaker 3: he gonna be worth that money? Is that going to
Speaker 3: be a good contract? It doesn't look like it, but
Speaker 3: he's going to be better than he's been. Additionally, the
Speaker 3: Saints are awful and they have the worst coach in
Speaker 3: the NFL, and I'm including that Hackett in that they
Speaker 3: have the worst coach in the NFL. The fact that
Speaker 3: this is not in Cleveland also is sneaky. Still alive
Speaker 3: for the playoffs, They're not in my mind, but Matt
Speaker 3: at six and eight, they're like, if we run the table,
Speaker 3: win some tiebreakers, nine and eight could get us in.
Speaker 3: I think Cleveland will run the hell out of the ball.
Speaker 3: I think Miles Garrett will force at least one fumble
Speaker 3: on Andy Dalton or Taysom Hill, whomever the Saints have
Speaker 3: played quarterback on any given snap. This should be Cleveland.
Speaker 3: I believe minus six it's Cleveland minus three.
Speaker 2: I like Cleveland.
Speaker 3: I don't think we have bet on Cleveland once all year,
Speaker 3: and I like them in this spot at home. The
Speaker 3: only hesitation I have is bad weather, snowy weather. I
Speaker 3: tend to favor underdogs because but this in since Cleveland's
Speaker 3: kind of built for the bad weather, because they will
Speaker 3: just run the football if you let them.
Speaker 2: So you think they'll have like an edge, and.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I think if the if the conditions are poor,
Speaker 3: they can just hand the ball to Nick Chubb thirty
Speaker 3: five times Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt They're gonna be
Speaker 3: fine with that. So I like Cleveland minus the three. Uh,
Speaker 3: is there something you want to ask about the game?
Speaker 2: Man?
Speaker 4: That over under is probably gonna be the lowest that
Speaker 4: it's been since I've been alive. Maybe really Yeah, because
Speaker 4: of the weather, yeah, and the teams.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So let me look and see what the total
Speaker 3: in the game is. In the Cleveland game, Oh my god,
Speaker 3: that is the That is going to be the lowest
Speaker 3: total in any game in years. In twenty years. The
Speaker 3: totals thirty two and a half. That's an Army Navy total.
Speaker 3: So Navy, Yeah, Army Navy. They play teams, yeah, they
Speaker 3: play and it's a It goes under almost every single year.
Speaker 3: So a total that low, again pushes you towards the
Speaker 3: underdog because you're getting points. They don't expect a lot
Speaker 3: of points. I understand that. I'm gonna stay strong with
Speaker 3: Cleveland at Cleveland minus three. That's our second pick of
Speaker 3: the week. Third pick, the Bills don't blow people out.
Speaker 3: Chicago getting eight and a half against Buffalo, it's just
Speaker 3: too many points. And I would imagine again, the weather
Speaker 3: is going to be a massive factor in any game
Speaker 3: that's being played in the Northeast this weekend. Also, Josh
Speaker 3: Allen popped up as a limited participant on the Bills
Speaker 3: practice report for the first time since before Thanksgiving. They
Speaker 3: rant listen that Miami game was critical to them. All
Speaker 3: these games are critical because they can't lose and stay
Speaker 3: the one seed. The Miami game was extra critical because
Speaker 3: had they lost that one, Miami would be to facto
Speaker 3: half game out of first place in the division and
Speaker 3: Buffalo could have fallen all the way to the five line.
Speaker 3: Buffalo had Miami last week, huge game. They have Cincinnati
Speaker 3: next week.
Speaker 2: That's interesting, huge game.
Speaker 3: So Buffalo right now could be the one, the two,
Speaker 3: or the three. Same with Kansas City, same with Cincinnati,
Speaker 3: so that's a massive game. They are now going to
Speaker 3: be playing in horrific conditions against a Bears team that
Speaker 3: the Bears weakness will They have a lot of them,
Speaker 3: but they can't block for Justin Fields. But he's such
Speaker 3: a magician. He gets out and runs. We saw some
Speaker 3: of the most amazing quarterback runs we've ever seen watching
Speaker 3: him this weekend. Their other giant weakness is every aspect
Speaker 3: of their defense, particularly their past defense. In these conditions,
Speaker 3: I don't think there's gonna be a lot of passing now.
Speaker 3: Josh Allen is a deadly weapon with his leg. He
Speaker 3: ran so much and got so banged up against the
Speaker 3: bank against the Dolphins. I would imagine if the Bills
Speaker 3: have any sense whatsoever, they are going to try to
Speaker 3: make this a fast game. Hand the ball to their
Speaker 3: running backs, keep Josh out of harm's way. That leads
Speaker 3: to a low scoring game. The Bears are going to
Speaker 3: be running the ball that leads to a low scoring game.
Speaker 3: The Bears, as they showed last week against the Eagles,
Speaker 3: even when they're down double digits, are not out of it.
Speaker 3: From a covering perspective, Getting eight and a half is
Speaker 3: such a great number to where even if they're down
Speaker 3: ten late, if they're down fourteen late, hell fifteen late,
Speaker 3: you're still alive for the cover. And the Bills, aside
Speaker 3: from the Patriots, have they They have not beaten anyone
Speaker 3: by two scores since the first week of October when
Speaker 3: they played the Steelers and beat them thirty five to three.
Speaker 3: That's the other than the again, other than the Patriots,
Speaker 3: who they beat twenty four to ten. So that's a blowout,
Speaker 3: but it's a low scoring blowout. They have not blown
Speaker 3: anyone out in two plus months. Chicago plus eight and
Speaker 3: a half. Next, the Raiders getting two and a half
Speaker 3: at Pittsburgh. This one's pretty simple. Obviously, you'd rather it
Speaker 3: be three, There's no doubt about it. You'd rather it
Speaker 3: be three. But I actually don't know if the three
Speaker 3: is quite as valuable when it's going to again be
Speaker 3: these weather and kicking conditions because you got miss extra points,
Speaker 3: missed field goals. The Raiders are in the same bucket
Speaker 3: as the Browns, where they're still alive thanks to being
Speaker 3: six and eight, where they're not actually alive, but they're
Speaker 3: not going to give up on the season. Steelers, by
Speaker 3: the way, in that same bucket at six and eight.
Speaker 3: I just think this is the Raiders after the win
Speaker 3: last week against the Patriots, which what got overshadowed because
Speaker 3: of how the game ended was that the Raiders were
Speaker 3: the far better team. The Raiders outplayed the Patriots soundly
Speaker 3: throughout the game, car through an unfathomably bad pick six
Speaker 3: that got the Patriots back in it. The Patriots then
Speaker 3: field goal, field goal, field goal, They all of a
Speaker 3: sudden have a lead, and then the Raiders have a
Speaker 3: magnificent final drive complete a fourth and ten, a great
Speaker 3: ball to kill and Cole in the corner of the
Speaker 3: end zone. I don't know if he was in or out,
Speaker 3: but they called him in in order to tie the game.
Speaker 3: And then they had the stirring Chandler Jones mush face
Speaker 3: on Mac Jones. The Raiders, I think win this game outright.
Speaker 3: If they don't, this feels like it absolutely could be
Speaker 3: a sixteen to fourteen game where even if they don't win,
Speaker 3: the two and a half is enough to cover. I
Speaker 3: like the Raiders now. Last week I picked the Steelers
Speaker 3: because the coaching edge Tomlin versus Wilkes. There again is
Speaker 3: a pretty significant coaching edge Tomlin versus McDaniel. But I
Speaker 3: think the Raiders have an overwhelming talent edge in this game.
Speaker 3: The Steelers don't run the ball all that well, and
Speaker 3: this is gonna be a run game. The Raiders plus
Speaker 3: two and a half. And then lastly Miami minus four
Speaker 3: against Green Bay. I think right now this is an
Speaker 3: undervalued Dolphins team and an overvalued Packers team. So the Packers,
Speaker 3: everyone's given them credit because, oh they're alive and they
Speaker 3: could make the postseason. They're not making the postseason. Oh
Speaker 3: they've they've turned their season around. My question would be this,
Speaker 3: have the Packers turned their season around or have the
Speaker 3: Packers simply gotten to the part of the schedule where
Speaker 3: they get the Bears and then the Rams. I think
Speaker 3: it's more that Miami, on the other hand, I thought
Speaker 3: really played well against Buffalo. I thought they're running. I
Speaker 3: thought they showed you in the Buffalo game. What if
Speaker 3: a team sells out to just stop the pass what
Speaker 3: they can do on the ground. Miami also is desperate
Speaker 3: for a win, having lost three in a row. They're
Speaker 3: not going to miss the playoffs, but they need another
Speaker 3: win to ensure they don't miss the playoffs. Them being
Speaker 3: favored by only four points at home in what is
Speaker 3: a game that should not be drastically affected by weather
Speaker 3: because it's in Miami is disrespectful to what the Dolphins
Speaker 3: have accomplished throughout the year. I think this should be
Speaker 3: Miami minus six and a half. It's Miami minus four.
Speaker 3: I don't think that the Packers can stay attached to
Speaker 3: Hill and Waddle all game. And here is an amazing stat.
Speaker 3: How many games this year do you think Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 3: has thrown for three hundred yards?
Speaker 2: One zero?
Speaker 3: How many games this year, is Aaron Rodgers thrown for
Speaker 3: two hundred and sixty yards?
Speaker 2: You want to give it a guess?
Speaker 3: No, No, you don't know, Okay, no problem.
Speaker 2: Zero zero, okay, two sixty? Wow?
Speaker 3: To not throw for two sixty. The reason that people
Speaker 3: are like, oh, the Packers, if they get hot, if
Speaker 3: they sneak in, if it's pretending they have the Aaron
Speaker 3: Rodgers that the two years he won League MVP, the
Speaker 3: last two years had a touchdown interception ratio of eighty
Speaker 3: five to nine, eighty five to nine over two years
Speaker 3: such an interception. This year it's twenty three to ten.
Speaker 3: And he hasn't thrown for more than two hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty five yards once all season. So for all those reasons,
Speaker 3: I think Miami is the better team. I think Miami
Speaker 3: is undervalued here. I like Miami minus four and so
Speaker 3: that Miami's the pick. So our five picks for the
Speaker 3: week coming off a four and one week where the
Speaker 3: one loss was by a half point. The Giants getting
Speaker 3: four in minutes, the Bears getting eight and a half
Speaker 3: at home against Buffalo, Cleveland laying three against New Orleans,
Speaker 3: the Raiders getting two and a half at Pittsburgh, and
Speaker 3: Miami laying four against Green Bay. There's our five picks.
Speaker 3: We have a very interesting second segment coming where we
Speaker 3: put the games in stay aways, be carefuls and perfectly priced.
Speaker 3: We have five a full five stay away games because
Speaker 3: of quarterback injuries over the course of the last few
Speaker 3: weeks that affect these games. We will discuss all of
Speaker 3: those games next. What's right.
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back. In episode one oh nine, Week
Speaker 3: sixteen gambling show, we just gave you our five picks.
Speaker 3: We'll recap them real quick here again. Giants plus four,
Speaker 3: Bears plus eight and a half, Raiders plus two and
Speaker 3: a half, Cleveland minus three, and Miami minus four. We now,
Speaker 3: as we always have you new to the Gambling Show.
Speaker 3: The way we do it is we take all the
Speaker 3: games of the weekend and then we put them in
Speaker 3: three categories, the picks we're gonna make, the stay aways,
Speaker 3: the beat carefuls, and the perfectly priced. This is the
Speaker 3: most stayaways we've ever had. We have five stay aways
Speaker 3: this week Houston at Tennessee, Seattle at Kansas City, Atlanta
Speaker 3: at Baltimore, Billy Dallas, Denver at the Rams. So we'll
Speaker 3: explain them all quickly, but there's most of them involve
Speaker 3: quarterback questions. So Tennessee is laying three at home against Houston.
Speaker 3: Ryan Tannehill is out for the season, so it's Malik
Speaker 3: Willis play. Malik Willis has not shown the ability yet
Speaker 3: to be an NFL quarterback. With that said, the Texans
Speaker 3: have not shown the ability yet to win football games.
Speaker 3: And I understand they came this close to being Dallas,
Speaker 3: this even closer to beating the Chiefs. I don't have
Speaker 3: a read on if coming that close and losing those
Speaker 3: games is going to be galvanizing for them, Like we're
Speaker 3: that close getting over the hump or if they're gonna
Speaker 3: be like it's Christmas, those were our chances. We stink
Speaker 3: we're mailing it in that plus the quarterback issue in
Speaker 3: Tennessee just don't bet on.
Speaker 2: This game, all right.
Speaker 4: So so, knowing the Tannehills out, they did the minus
Speaker 4: three thing, what I want to say is, I think
Speaker 4: Tennessee is I don't give it crap about Tanneill not
Speaker 4: being in. I think they're gonna be that team that
Speaker 4: exposed them again for the Houston Texans, and I think
Speaker 4: they're gonna blow them out.
Speaker 2: And I think the minus three. Hey, I'm not telling
Speaker 2: you guys a bet on it, but I think the
Speaker 2: minus three.
Speaker 3: Is so one of your picks this week if you
Speaker 3: hadn't retired from gambling on Sunday, would be Tennessee minus three. Yeah. Possibly,
Speaker 3: but it sounds like definitely. Yeah, sounds like definitely Tennessee
Speaker 3: minus three. Okay. I'm not saying that's a wrong pick.
Speaker 3: I'm simply saying it's too much uncertainty for me for
Speaker 3: that to be on my card. Seattle at Kansas City
Speaker 3: minus ten is a stay away purely for this reason.
Speaker 3: I don't know if Kansas here's the deal. There is
Speaker 3: a possibility that Kansas City is not as good as
Speaker 3: I believe they are.
Speaker 2: Here we go.
Speaker 3: There is another possibility that Kansas City is doing the
Speaker 3: bare minimum it needs to do in these games to
Speaker 3: book a win and to stay healthy. Because one thing
Speaker 3: that is noteworthy is the Chiefs haven't had a player
Speaker 3: injured in a game in three weeks. That's almost impossible
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Now, some of that's luck, but also
Speaker 3: some of that is you can coach a certain way
Speaker 3: and play call a certain way to minimize injury risk.
Speaker 3: It also minimizes explosiveness, and you know what I mean,
Speaker 3: a lot of things, and I do wonder they got
Speaker 3: up twenty seven to nothing on Denver and then when
Speaker 3: Uber conservative except for Mahomes, made some big mistakes and
Speaker 3: got away with a win against Houston.
Speaker 2: They were taking Kelsey out a lot, It seemed like
Speaker 2: taking They were taking Travis Kelsey.
Speaker 3: On a lot out of the game exactly in yes,
Speaker 3: because I and I think that's now They could have
Speaker 3: looked that could have cost him against Houston, But I
Speaker 3: don't think they anticipated Bucker missing the kicks, the two fumbles,
Speaker 3: all those things, right, So my point is against Seattle.
Speaker 3: I just I don't know if the Chiefs right now,
Speaker 3: unless the other team turns the ball over a bunch
Speaker 3: are going to coach to blow people out. But you
Speaker 3: also should not feel comfortable grabbing the ten with a
Speaker 3: Chiefs team that has to win at home against the
Speaker 3: Seattle team that's that's trending downwards. So to me, it's
Speaker 3: a stay away.
Speaker 2: Go ahead. Okay, I'm gonna play Devil's advocating real quick.
Speaker 4: If you weren't a Chiefs fan, I feel like you'd
Speaker 4: have to definitely bet on this game considering that Pat
Speaker 4: Mahomes never covers big numbers and Seattle is extremely desperate
Speaker 4: at this point of the season.
Speaker 3: Okay, that there is an argument to be made there
Speaker 3: that I maybe would do that. The flip side, though,
Speaker 3: is the Chiefs haven't covered in three weeks or four weeks,
Speaker 3: depending on where you got the Rams Chiefs line at.
Speaker 3: They're not gonna They're not gonna not cover the rest
Speaker 3: of the year. So at some point they're gonna cover
Speaker 3: one of these big numbers. And so I to me,
Speaker 3: I'm just staying away from it. Atlanta at Baltimore. I'll
Speaker 3: be very quick here. Desmond Ritter it's such an unknown
Speaker 3: if he can play at this level at all. Baltimore,
Speaker 3: we don't yet know for certain who is playing quarterback,
Speaker 3: so quarterback questions on both sides stay away from the game.
Speaker 3: PHILLYOT Dallas. We don't know if Jalen Hurts is playing
Speaker 3: or not as we record here today. I don't think
Speaker 3: he's playing, but there is when they're in. I think
Speaker 3: Minshew's a good backup. But when there is that unknown
Speaker 3: at quarterback, it's a stay away. And Denver at the Rams,
Speaker 3: the I think Russ is playing. They're saying he's playing.
Speaker 3: Its concussion protocol, though it's also too horrible. Teams that
Speaker 3: a stay away, like the quarterback questions involving four of
Speaker 3: these five games, so to me, they're just pure stay aways. Okay,
Speaker 3: it makes sense, like that's what that category exists, the
Speaker 3: be careful category. Since he at New England, since he
Speaker 3: laying only three points, Tampa Bay at Arizona, and the
Speaker 3: Chargers at Endy, these are be careful for very simple reasons.
Speaker 3: They are daring you to bet the Bengals. The Patriots
Speaker 3: are a mess. They're coming off the worst loss arguably
Speaker 3: in NFL history. Cincinnati looks like a juggernaut. Right now,
Speaker 3: why is it only three points? Now? I understand the
Speaker 3: weather is a factor there, It's a lot of things
Speaker 3: that could be a factor. The entirety of the general
Speaker 3: public is going to be on Cincinnati. Be careful, demands
Speaker 3: that you love Cincinnati this weekend. Yeah, yeah, I know it.
Speaker 2: Yeah. It kind of seems like Vegas is underrating them
Speaker 2: in my opinion.
Speaker 3: Well I get that, and the last few weeks you'd
Speaker 3: have been proven correcked. This to me is a trap,
Speaker 3: and I don't I can't give you any analysis. Of course.
Speaker 2: Listen, the only reason plus three makes sense in New
Speaker 2: England against Cincinnati is it? Is it in New England?
Speaker 2: It's in New England?
Speaker 3: Yeah so, but it is to me, this is eighty
Speaker 3: five percent of the public is going to be on Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: I can't imagine anyone loving New England getting only three points.
Speaker 4: You're going to be part of the pubblic that's a
Speaker 4: ten point teaser right there, your teaseer eleven eleven.
Speaker 3: So you lose the line value. You just you just,
Speaker 3: I mean, just make all these mistakes. You can lead
Speaker 3: a fit, you know, I will say, you can lead
Speaker 3: a fish to water. That's not what it is. The
Speaker 3: horse to the troughy. You can lead a horse to water,
Speaker 3: you can't make them drink. You can, you know, teacher,
Speaker 3: you can give a man a fish. You gotta teach
Speaker 3: and fish something like that. I've let you down, Son.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
Speaker 3: Tampa and Arizona. There's the rare game where the public
Speaker 3: I think is gonna be all over the underdog. It's
Speaker 3: incomprehensible at this point that Tampa could blow somebody out.
Speaker 3: But it's trace Mick Sorely starting for the Cardinals. So
Speaker 3: to me, the public's gonna be all over Arizona plus
Speaker 3: seven and a half because Tampa's looks so bad. Be careful.
Speaker 3: Arizona could score zero points. No, legitimately, Arizona might score
Speaker 3: zero points. But I'm also not gonna encourage you to
Speaker 3: go out and lay more than a touchdown with the
Speaker 3: Bucks who have looked terrible. Just be careful there. And then, lastly,
Speaker 3: in this category, Chargers at Indy. Indy is getting four
Speaker 3: and a half. Indy is starting Nick Foles. Here's what
Speaker 3: I'll tell you.
Speaker 2: I think the.
Speaker 3: Chargers are excellent. I think argers are dangerous. I think
Speaker 3: the Chargers are gonna win. I also think Nick Foles
Speaker 3: might be the best quarterback Yeaholis, Yeah, that they've had
Speaker 3: all year. Honestly, God Alnger was a joke. Matt Ryan
Speaker 3: is melting in front of us. I think I think
Speaker 3: that this feels like the all the entire public is
Speaker 3: going to be on the Chargers. I of course, would
Speaker 3: never encourage anyone to bet on Jeff Saturday. Four and
Speaker 3: a half is such a weird number. Be careful here,
Speaker 3: I just just be careful. The Chargers absolutely could blow
Speaker 3: them out. It also could be that Nick Foles is
Speaker 3: dealing on that beat up Chargers defense. Be careful and then, lastly,
Speaker 3: perfectly priced will be very quick here. Detroit at Carolina
Speaker 3: and Washington and San Francisco. Detroit being favored by just
Speaker 3: about a field goal at Carolina feels right. Detroit is
Speaker 3: not as dominant on the road as they are at home.
Speaker 3: Carolina is no good, however. Carolina on the flip side, though,
Speaker 3: is they do control their own playoff destiny if they
Speaker 3: were to win out they go to the postseason. Detroit
Speaker 3: to me is maybe slightly overvalued by the public right now,
Speaker 3: but they are red hot. It should be Detroit minus
Speaker 3: just about three on the road. That's perfectly priced. And
Speaker 3: Washington at San Francisco. Washington's desperate. San Francisco's the most
Speaker 3: talented roster in the league. They're at home. They have
Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback. You can't favor brock Purty by more
Speaker 3: than a touchdown against any live team. Washington's a very
Speaker 3: live team. So I think the line is exactly where
Speaker 3: I thought it should be. San Francisco favored by a touchdown.
Speaker 3: That feels to me like a twenty to thirteen game.
Speaker 3: So there it is. There's our We gave you our
Speaker 3: five picks. We broke down the other games. We will
Speaker 3: tell a Demons gambling story. We would find out if
Speaker 3: we have any teasers. We will give you our right
Speaker 3: move of the week. All that's next, What's right? All right?
Speaker 3: Welcome back in final segment, Episode one oh nine, Week
Speaker 3: sixteen Gambling Show. Our five picks this week are the
Speaker 3: Giants plus four, Chicago plus eight and a half, Cleveland
Speaker 3: minus three, Vegas plus two and a half, and Miami
Speaker 3: minus four. Our right move this week, which we got
Speaker 3: correct last week, has not been great over the course
Speaker 3: of the season, but that's okay, is going to be
Speaker 3: Chicago getting the eight and a half points. So Chicago
Speaker 3: plus eight and a half. The Bills have in the
Speaker 3: last two and a half months have one win of
Speaker 3: more than a one score of more than seven or
Speaker 3: eight points. I don't think they're gonna get their second
Speaker 3: in what's going to be terrible weather against a bad
Speaker 3: but frisky Bears team. We like the Bears plus eight
Speaker 3: and a half. Demonse, you're about to come on camera,
Speaker 3: go like this, buddy, You got a little fuzz from
Speaker 3: your shirt in your eyebrow, actually believe it or not.
Speaker 3: Now it's on your eyelid, but you're fine. So it's
Speaker 3: still there. If you want to clean that off the
Speaker 3: other side of your face, I'm just trying to help
Speaker 3: you out there you go, still there's still I'm just
Speaker 3: trying to help you. It's still there right there on
Speaker 3: the side of your face. And so here's the deal.
Speaker 3: We don't have an exotic this week. Okay, demonte had
Speaker 3: an exotic this weekend. There's a ten point teaser, five
Speaker 3: team ten point teaser, and he lost it because he
Speaker 3: had the Cowboys catching five. He teased across zero, didn't
Speaker 3: get to the key numbers, made all these errors as
Speaker 3: if I've taught you nothing and lost in a heartbreaking
Speaker 3: fashion a pick six in overtime to lose by a.
Speaker 2: Point, she just gets tackled. Man, they kicked the field goal.
Speaker 2: I win.
Speaker 3: I know, and you probably dreamt about it and it
Speaker 3: kept you up at night. But here's the real problem.
Speaker 3: Without getting too into Demonday's business, it was not a
Speaker 3: one unit bet. It was not a two unit bet.
Speaker 3: It was a twenty unit bet.
Speaker 2: The biggest bet of it.
Speaker 3: It was twenty units. I know what your typical bet
Speaker 3: size is. I know what that bet was. And now,
Speaker 3: and as much as I'd love to, I can't live
Speaker 3: your life for you. But I am telling you this
Speaker 3: is now a fork in the road moment for you
Speaker 3: because the problem with making a twenty unit bet, and
Speaker 3: we've all been there, is it has a long tail
Speaker 3: that affects you weeks and weeks down the road. And
Speaker 3: here's what I mean. Your if you had won it,
Speaker 3: that would probably in the long run cost you more
Speaker 3: because that would then be you would trick yourself in
Speaker 3: saying that's my new typical bet size. You might say
Speaker 3: you wouldn't, but you would. That's what everyone does. Because
Speaker 3: the problem is, and this is where even losing it
Speaker 3: can hurt you. Is Now, if you play this weekend
Speaker 3: and you go back to your typical bet size, winning
Speaker 3: will feel like losing. It will be oh, yeah, great,
Speaker 3: I won.
Speaker 2: Yeah whooped? You do not.
Speaker 3: I only need to win fifteen more of these to
Speaker 3: get back that one bet, and it's gonna be sitting
Speaker 3: in the back of your head. There's gonna I'm gonna
Speaker 3: get even on that. I'm gonna get even on that,
Speaker 3: and I'm going to find the perfect five team ten
Speaker 3: point teaser. Here's one other thing, and then I'll let
Speaker 3: you talk. Demanse got mad at me this weekend briefly
Speaker 3: when I was trying to talk through what had happened.
Speaker 3: When I was like, so, what was the bet? I
Speaker 3: went through it, I'm like, yeah, man, that's a lot
Speaker 3: of money on a long shot. Demonte goes long shot. Huh.
Speaker 3: I'm like, well, it was plus one forty, so if
Speaker 3: it's plus money, it is something of a long shot.
Speaker 3: So now the floor is yours with your thoughts.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it again, but I'm not gonna do
Speaker 4: the five hundred thing. What I'm going to do is
Speaker 4: and I don't think you're a you're not taking into
Speaker 4: account what my parlays are. First of all, if I
Speaker 4: hit one of my parlays, then I did make the
Speaker 4: money back because they're all like fifteen sixteen bucks to win,
Speaker 4: like four or five whatever.
Speaker 3: Those are very very hard to hit.
Speaker 2: But go ahead.
Speaker 4: So I think, what I'm not gonna I'm not betting
Speaker 4: this weekend. I'm not betting the next weekend. I'm actually
Speaker 4: done betting for a little bit of time. But when
Speaker 4: I do get back to betting, what I'm going to
Speaker 4: do is I'm going to do that same ten eleven
Speaker 4: have very many points, users I'm gonna bet one hundred
Speaker 4: on that, and then I'm gonna do my regular parlays
Speaker 4: and it's going to be I know, I missed this one,
Speaker 4: but it was pretty sure fire it by one point.
Speaker 4: All right, Cool, I'm gonna do the one hundred to
Speaker 4: cover me, and I'm still gonna do the same parlays,
Speaker 4: so I'll lose like one to fifty at the most.
Speaker 3: Okay, I you know, here's the thing. I'd love to
Speaker 3: say that you know you're grown man. You're on your
Speaker 3: own on this. Unfortunately, though this does impact me, for
Speaker 3: it's not your fault. But as you saw, you got
Speaker 3: a small glimpse of this the other night. Let's just say,
Speaker 3: your mother is nonplussed with me with you starting the
Speaker 3: sports bet. And it came up the other day when
Speaker 3: I messed with your mom about something, and she was like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 3: well you've got him gambling, so and so.
Speaker 2: All right, so let me let me say this.
Speaker 4: With that little thing, the little last week's or last
Speaker 4: Sunday's stint.
Speaker 2: I feel like overall I've been pretty respect like.
Speaker 4: I feel like with the five hundred thing, I didn't
Speaker 4: double down, I didn't try to bet again.
Speaker 3: I was and I'll be honest you, Okay, So now
Speaker 3: I have to you're right about that, and now I
Speaker 3: have to admit something to you. So you looked at
Speaker 3: my bank against Hold on a second, just wait a
Speaker 3: second here, Just wait a second here. I did not
Speaker 3: that day. I did not the next day, however, yesterday
Speaker 3: or the day before yesterday, I don't remember which I
Speaker 3: had to send you money for. Yeah, because demanse uh
Speaker 3: paid a bill for me, or paid, I say, paid
Speaker 3: the lady who comes and cleans our house once a week.
Speaker 3: I was gone and I hadn't paid her. So I
Speaker 3: asked demanse to go to the ATM and get money
Speaker 3: and to give her extra money because it was Christmas.
Speaker 3: So I had to log into the online banking to
Speaker 3: transfer you that money back because I didn't want to forget.
Speaker 3: And I will admit when I was there scrolling through
Speaker 3: the transit, I didn't even scroll. Here's the thing. I
Speaker 3: don't know if this is better or worse. I didn't
Speaker 3: scroll through your transactions because I felt that would have
Speaker 3: been too invasive. What I did do searched, Yes, exactly right,
Speaker 3: that is exact, and I'm gonna tell you I saw
Speaker 3: something moderately. I was here's the thing. I typed in
Speaker 3: Fate and I searched, and I saw every every FanDuel thing.
Speaker 3: Then I typed in all the other betting apps and
Speaker 3: I saw, okay, we're in the clear. What I didn't
Speaker 3: see was that on FanDuel in particular, that they've ever
Speaker 3: sent you money. So that was a little disappointing though,
Speaker 3: because because I.
Speaker 4: Could actually find that for you if I've cashed out, okay,
Speaker 4: so you d me twice, but I've never cashed on
Speaker 4: like a huge amount I cashed out the time I've
Speaker 4: cashed out twice. Every okay, the time after the Lions game,
Speaker 4: that little parlay that okay, you.
Speaker 3: Did cash that out. Okay, so maybe it just didn't
Speaker 3: show up on that so you have cashed out something
Speaker 3: definitely okay. All right, well then in that case you
Speaker 3: are right that you have not been Yeah. That was
Speaker 3: total deposits to FanDuel over the course of the season
Speaker 3: is about one thousand bucks. Half of that being made
Speaker 3: at two in the morning Sunday morning for a five
Speaker 3: team ten point parlay is not or ten point teaser
Speaker 3: is not ideal bank roll management. But but I was
Speaker 3: relieved and thrilled because I knew you told me how
Speaker 3: much the bet was for, right, so I knew it
Speaker 3: was that. I was legit nervous that I was gonna
Speaker 3: see an instant another deposit, like.
Speaker 2: Oh boy, no, we're not making the dream come.
Speaker 3: Try Okay, all right, you know what, Okay, then you're fine.
Speaker 3: So demonte By the way, this week only has one pick.
Speaker 3: I think your one pick that you love is Tennessee
Speaker 3: minus three with Malik.
Speaker 2: Willis no what I'm going to start.
Speaker 4: I'm doing the teasers, I'm doing the having any points
Speaker 4: you No, No, I won't. I'm not saying that I'm
Speaker 4: gonna bet it on. I understand, but it's going to
Speaker 4: be my imaginary You know, all.
Speaker 3: Listen, since we're not doing an exotic this week, I
Speaker 3: just because it applies to you, and then we'll move on.
Speaker 3: The show's gone too long. That just reminder America. With teasers,
Speaker 3: you want to avoid teasing across zero because you're giving
Speaker 3: up a point there because the game essentially never lands
Speaker 3: on zero. That's first point. Second point. You want to
Speaker 3: make sure, depending on your betting outfit that you use,
Speaker 3: do pushes reduce the teaser or do pushes lose? So
Speaker 3: on some ten point teasers, you tease it and say
Speaker 3: games of pick them, and you tease it up to
Speaker 3: plus ten. If that team loses by ten, it doesn't
Speaker 3: just reduce, meaning go from a five team teaser to
Speaker 3: a four team teaser like it would with You're Out.
Speaker 3: You gotta check that. And you want to make sure
Speaker 3: you're teasing across key numbers. You want to get actual
Speaker 3: value in what you're teasing, and you want to consider
Speaker 3: teasing underdogs. Everyone thinks of teasing. Oh I'm gonna tease
Speaker 3: a seven point favorite down to a pick them, so
Speaker 3: be it. But you also have to consider teasing a
Speaker 3: two and a half point underdog up to nine and
Speaker 3: a half. So you get it through the three, the six,
Speaker 3: the seven, the eight. Those are things if you're gonna
Speaker 3: do teasers, and let's not do teasers of more than
Speaker 3: three teams America. These five team teasers are hard. You
Speaker 3: need to be correct on five separate events. One other
Speaker 3: note that I don't really encourage, but I will ad
Speaker 3: for you, but for the audience. Also, keep in mind
Speaker 3: with teasers, you're allowed to tease the total. I don't
Speaker 3: do that, but you are allowed to tease. Like right now,
Speaker 3: that that game that we said at a thirty two
Speaker 3: and a half point total, you theoretically whatever, if you
Speaker 3: theoretically could tease it to over twenty two and a
Speaker 3: half points, you know what I mean. You could move
Speaker 3: the total ten points if you wanted to. But I
Speaker 3: don't encourage that. All right, what's the offer this week?
Speaker 4: This week's offer is called the Saint Nick because it'd
Speaker 4: be your ultimate Christmas present. So first off, we got
Speaker 4: Luca and Lebron to go over their points on Christmas
Speaker 4: or their point totals on Christmas, and.
Speaker 2: JAG's money line against the Jets.
Speaker 4: You love that Chie used to cover minus ten versus Seattle, Seattle,
Speaker 4: and this is a plus twelve ninety.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 3: Luca and Lebron both go over their point props the
Speaker 3: Jags money line, which will have already happened by the
Speaker 3: time people hear this because it's Thursday night game again
Speaker 3: City minus ten and plus thirteen hundred.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what go ahead.
Speaker 4: I think JAG's money line is cool. Luca and Lebron
Speaker 4: going over their point total on Christmas, the Chiefs covering
Speaker 4: the minus ten a little sketch.
Speaker 3: Well, that's why it's thirteen to one. It's a long shot.
Speaker 3: Let's put twenty units on it. I'll take that offer.
Speaker 3: Let's do it. Start it off tonight. I take that offer.
Speaker 3: There it is, and I'll make that actual bet. Uh.
Speaker 3: And you can have five percent of it. So you
Speaker 3: can have five percent of it so we can root
Speaker 3: for all that together. All right, good show. We'll talk
Speaker 3: to you guys Monday. What's right,