1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:04,720
Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

3
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:08,480
Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

4
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:16,400
Speaker 2: Throwing in. I'm sitting up to cats. We'll see the

5
00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,439
Speaker 2: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

6
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840
Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

7
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,160
Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabay you want to

8
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:35,199
Speaker 2: pull and we are Coway. Welcome everybody, Welcome to the

9
00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:39,159
Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this

10
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,520
Speaker 2: is your NFL Week twelve betting preview. Today we're gonna

11
00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:48,519
Speaker 2: build our Sunday six pack against spread bets with the

12
00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,800
Speaker 2: help of my co host, the Prime Minister Degenerate Nation,

13
00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 2: Stucky Stuck. It was good for to see both of

14
00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,000
Speaker 2: us have winny weeks on the six pack. How you

15
00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 2: failing brother?

16
00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,880
Speaker 3: It was a really good week Outside of the Browns.

17
00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,440
Speaker 3: Taysom Hill just dominated me. What a game from him.

18
00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,560
Speaker 3: My Ravens calls are still spot on this year. I

19
00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:10,960
Speaker 3: said on the pod, was your typical Ravens Steelers game?

20
00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,080
Speaker 3: Doll covers again. The difference in the game could be

21
00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:18,800
Speaker 3: Tucker versus Boswell, and that's what it was. Tucker miss

22
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,559
Speaker 3: two field goals, Boswell makes six. Again. It's a good week,

23
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:27,200
Speaker 3: but who cares. It's on to week twelve, where we

24
00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 3: have what six teams on a bye.

25
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,679
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's gonna be an ugly six pack. I'm

26
00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,720
Speaker 2: already gonna tease it for you guys. It's gonna be fun.

27
00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, six teams on buy and we start off

28
00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:44,240
Speaker 2: with a nice ugly Thursday in our football AFC North matchup.

29
00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,600
Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

30
00:01:51,320 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night Footballsburg.

31
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:05,120
Speaker 2: Steelers and the Cleveland brown in Cleveland. The Browns are

32
00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,560
Speaker 2: three and a half point underdogs. The total is around

33
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,679
Speaker 2: thirty six and a half. There is almost certainly going

34
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:18,679
Speaker 2: to be weather in this game, high winds and likely

35
00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,960
Speaker 2: some snow, so this could be a very interesting game.

36
00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,400
Speaker 2: Our first, I think, our first snow game of the year. Right,

37
00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,160
Speaker 2: there hasn't been any snow this year. So what are

38
00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,079
Speaker 2: your yeah, what are your thoughts on how the weather

39
00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,760
Speaker 2: could affect these two teams and just your overall outlook

40
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,120
Speaker 2: going on how to bet it?

41
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we could have twenty five to thirty

42
00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:42,079
Speaker 3: five on our sustained winds guss way higher. You could

43
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,079
Speaker 3: have lake effects snow. We'll see what the temperature ends

44
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: up being at But I mean I remember driving into

45
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:51,280
Speaker 3: Cleveland one time when there was lake effects snow and

46
00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,720
Speaker 3: I almost got stuck. I had real my card, real

47
00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:58,040
Speaker 3: real drive, and it was it was bad. It comes

48
00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,680
Speaker 3: in quick. People are gonna ask about snow. This won't

49
00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,880
Speaker 3: be a snow over. For what it's worth NFL totals

50
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,919
Speaker 3: of thirty seven or less. I've been absolutely money since

51
00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,760
Speaker 3: twenty twenty thirty three, fifteen and one to the under

52
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,480
Speaker 3: sixty nine percent. Usually a reason why they're this low.

53
00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 3: The reason is usually weather, and I think a lot

54
00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,520
Speaker 3: of times the market, even after coming down a lot,

55
00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:23,960
Speaker 3: doesn't adjust enough for especially very high wins. It looks

56
00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 3: like the Browns gonna be fully healthy outside of left

57
00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 3: tackle Wills isn't going to go. It could be a

58
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,920
Speaker 3: fetti starting there, but they had some other injury questions.

59
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,519
Speaker 3: Looks like everyone else is going to go. I could

60
00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,760
Speaker 3: only take the Browns at over a field goal. Do

61
00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 3: I trust Winston and the Cold not? Really? Do I

62
00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,640
Speaker 3: trust them not to make a mistake. I mean, the Steelers,

63
00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 3: this is what they do. They just get turnovers. I

64
00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,480
Speaker 3: just fear that's what's going to happen here. So bit

65
00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 3: we set responsibility for that. We will not go gently.

66
00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 4: We're gonna go into tag mode because we have to,

67
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 4: because that's what's required.

68
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,120
Speaker 3: I actually don't I always preach you want to tease

69
00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:01,880
Speaker 3: through three and seven. I actually don't mind this as

70
00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,240
Speaker 3: a teaser option. So if you want some action on

71
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,200
Speaker 3: Thursday night and you want to pair it with because

72
00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,160
Speaker 3: neither of us like two teaser legs on Sunday, it's

73
00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:12,720
Speaker 3: not really two great options. So we'd both like the

74
00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,480
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers as a teaser option. So I don't

75
00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:17,640
Speaker 3: mind teasing the Browns from three and a half to

76
00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,080
Speaker 3: nine and a half. It's not a conventional teaser piece,

77
00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,960
Speaker 3: but the total is thirty six. This is a spot

78
00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,280
Speaker 3: where I would make an exception. It's not the best

79
00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,720
Speaker 3: spot for the Steelers. You get that huge win over

80
00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,400
Speaker 3: the Ravens short week on the road, but other than that,

81
00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,680
Speaker 3: I actually wouldn't even mind the under, even though it's

82
00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 3: come down. But I would just like to get more

83
00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,920
Speaker 3: confirmation on the wind. Game should be ugly.

84
00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:41,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be my point. It would be the under,

85
00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,960
Speaker 2: like you have to see the final forecast because it's

86
00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,599
Speaker 2: always tricky with weather and it's not like the total

87
00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,880
Speaker 2: is just coming down to a point where it's racing

88
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,640
Speaker 2: to the bottom. We've seen that before. There's a chance

89
00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 2: it's not as bad as we think, but both of

90
00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:01,720
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks live off deepa and that's not gonna be there.

91
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,920
Speaker 2: Both of these teams will and could run, but they're

92
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,640
Speaker 2: not the most efficient running teams. I mean, you know,

93
00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,360
Speaker 2: we've seen Nick Chubb not really be himself. And then

94
00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,719
Speaker 2: for the Steelers usually around this time of year, I

95
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,120
Speaker 2: will say Nagie Harris tends to pick it up and

96
00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,400
Speaker 2: you know, start churning out one hundred yard games. But

97
00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,839
Speaker 2: it's still not the most efficient on either side. If

98
00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 2: there's no deep bow involved, you're taking some of the

99
00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,520
Speaker 2: explosives out of the equation. So but you still have

100
00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,280
Speaker 2: a turnover prone Winsted and a Steeler team that gets

101
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:31,160
Speaker 2: a lot of turnovers.

102
00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,480
Speaker 3: I think a Tomlin is basically be coaching for this under.

103
00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,919
Speaker 2: Speaking of which, Mike Tomlin road unders for the Pittsburgh

104
00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:46,440
Speaker 2: Steelers are fifty seven, sixty seven, and twenty eight since

105
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:51,599
Speaker 2: twenty fourteen, So you know this is this is the spot.

106
00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,760
Speaker 2: The unders on the road for the Steelers are just

107
00:05:54,880 --> 00:06:00,400
Speaker 2: always or have been profitable for over a decade now,

108
00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,359
Speaker 2: and we know why we see it, you know, we

109
00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,760
Speaker 2: talk about it each and every week. There's these these

110
00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,159
Speaker 2: spots where it's either Tomlin's an erra you know, underdog spot,

111
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,440
Speaker 2: or he's gonna he's gonna come. They're just gonna go

112
00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:12,240
Speaker 2: on the road and take try to take care of

113
00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 2: business and get out of there. But either way, usually

114
00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,840
Speaker 2: Steelers games when they're on the road are going under

115
00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,040
Speaker 2: all right, that is our Thursday night football preview. Now

116
00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 2: let's get into our week twelve Sunday six pack Thursday

117
00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:41,760
Speaker 2: for actions. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. As

118
00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:43,520
Speaker 2: I mentioned at the top of a good week for us,

119
00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,880
Speaker 2: both two and one on the six pack. Thirty nine

120
00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,320
Speaker 2: to twenty five is a score. My first pick of

121
00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:53,279
Speaker 2: the week twelve Sunday six pack the first overall. Let's

122
00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,960
Speaker 2: go with the San Francisco forty nine Ers plus two

123
00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:01,520
Speaker 2: and a half at the Green Bay. Packers have been

124
00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:04,680
Speaker 2: getting quite unlucky. I mean, we just talked about some

125
00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,080
Speaker 2: of the field goal misses that cost him a cover

126
00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,760
Speaker 2: in the Bucks game and almost cost them the game

127
00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:14,040
Speaker 2: if we're being quite honest. And then against the Seahawks,

128
00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,560
Speaker 2: they kind of just do what the Seahawks did the

129
00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,880
Speaker 2: week before. It's had so many chances to put them away,

130
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,080
Speaker 2: just like the Seahawks had so many chances to put

131
00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,280
Speaker 2: the Rams away the week before and just couldn't get

132
00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 2: it done. But it was not a situation where I'm

133
00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:33,360
Speaker 2: looking at this Niners team like the sky is fawn.

134
00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,560
Speaker 2: I think that is kind of what a lot of

135
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,680
Speaker 2: the fan bases do it. And you know, now we're

136
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,640
Speaker 2: ten games into the season and everybody just assumed that

137
00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,880
Speaker 2: the Niners would turn it around and it would be easy,

138
00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,800
Speaker 2: and that's just not the NFL, especially these days. So

139
00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:52,520
Speaker 2: I love getting the Niners as a dog hasn't happened,

140
00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,240
Speaker 2: and I think over a year now, but Kyle Shanahan

141
00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:02,840
Speaker 2: is twenty nine and twenty as a dog fifty nine

142
00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,960
Speaker 2: percent against the spread, twenty and eleven as a road

143
00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,640
Speaker 2: dog over sixty percent. So this is this kind of

144
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 2: spot where you want to take the Niners because you're

145
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,120
Speaker 2: getting some points, you know, and with it, and you

146
00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:20,239
Speaker 2: don't have to kind of sweat out every little mistake

147
00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 2: they make, and they do make a lot for a

148
00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,160
Speaker 2: very talented team. I'm not really buying into much of this,

149
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,440
Speaker 2: you know, I know brock Herdy sore shoulder. He was

150
00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,480
Speaker 2: playing through the game with a sore shoulder. So I

151
00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,360
Speaker 2: think this line is kind of priced a little bit.

152
00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,880
Speaker 2: You know, if the sky is flowing Bosa, people won't

153
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,640
Speaker 2: practice all week. He didn't practice last week. He's he's

154
00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,480
Speaker 2: more like a fifty to fifty shot. But this Packer

155
00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 2: team is Ward's back at least, yeah, Ward is back.

156
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 2: But I mean the Niners have had far worse. Hell,

157
00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:55,160
Speaker 2: even if Bosa is out this season alone in some spots,

158
00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,600
Speaker 2: so this is not a you know, an injury report

159
00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,640
Speaker 2: that's gonna kind of send me spiraling here. I want

160
00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:02,560
Speaker 2: to take the value. I want to take the Niners

161
00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:06,800
Speaker 2: to bounce back here because this Packer team, they're solid.

162
00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,120
Speaker 2: You know, the Niners are still better. I actually make

163
00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,840
Speaker 2: the Niners slight favorite on the road here. We've talked

164
00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:16,200
Speaker 2: about how home field is kind of windling in the

165
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:21,320
Speaker 2: NFL these days. This Jordan Love seems like every single

166
00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:25,440
Speaker 2: game he doesn't take care of the football. And so

167
00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,800
Speaker 2: for a Niner team that's been very unlucky, this should

168
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,120
Speaker 2: be a spot where they get some luck to go

169
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,600
Speaker 2: their way. In our luck rankings, this is the only

170
00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,880
Speaker 2: game that meets the luck of luck bet criteria. Here

171
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,400
Speaker 2: the Niners are number twenty seven and the Packers are

172
00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 2: the luckiest team, So I like this spot from that angle.

173
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:51,000
Speaker 2: But also, this Niner defense still very good even if

174
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,040
Speaker 2: Bosa doesn't go. I think the safeties are playing well.

175
00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,360
Speaker 2: You got Fred Warner to match up with a very

176
00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,800
Speaker 2: good tight ending craft. They're playing the run recently as well.

177
00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 2: So I just don't think this Packer team is a

178
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,600
Speaker 2: very scary team for this Niner team, who is not

179
00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,400
Speaker 2: like the Niners are getting blown out or you know,

180
00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 2: anything like that. They're just kind of going up in

181
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,599
Speaker 2: games and then they'll do some some dumb shit in

182
00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,080
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter and have a bad possession or two,

183
00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,000
Speaker 2: maybe a brain fart by party or just something stupid happens,

184
00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,319
Speaker 2: and you know it ends up coming to bite them.

185
00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:28,280
Speaker 2: But you know, we've seen it against the Rams, We've

186
00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 2: seen it against the Cardinals, we've seen it against the Seahawks.

187
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,000
Speaker 2: But we know this is the NFL. This is randomness.

188
00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,000
Speaker 2: That's why we look at things like, look, this is

189
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,319
Speaker 2: why we you know, kind of do this each and

190
00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,640
Speaker 2: every week where we end up taking these teams that

191
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,680
Speaker 2: people are looking at like what the hell is going

192
00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,360
Speaker 2: on with them? Nothing? Really, you know, they didn't have

193
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,599
Speaker 2: Kittle last week. He'll be back, and I think that

194
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,360
Speaker 2: hurt their run game. You know, we really haven't seen

195
00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,440
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey get going, and I think it's a lot

196
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 2: more to do, at least last week with the fact

197
00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 2: that you didn't have your you know, Kiddle on the edge,

198
00:10:58,200 --> 00:10:59,959
Speaker 2: and you didn't have them in the passing game either.

199
00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:05,000
Speaker 2: So Jennings looked amazing, but I think Deebo's lost a step.

200
00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,559
Speaker 2: So having Kittle kind of balances everything out, especially when

201
00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,520
Speaker 2: you also have McAffrey. It kind of opens up the

202
00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 2: whole offense. So I think they'll be better this week.

203
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,440
Speaker 2: They're a better team and by Dvoa, there's a better

204
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,760
Speaker 2: team on paper. As I said, I still have them

205
00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,520
Speaker 2: power rated as a favorite in this spot on the

206
00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:26,560
Speaker 2: road with the injuries, so I think the market is

207
00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,600
Speaker 2: just kind of overrating recency here. I mean, this Packer

208
00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:35,160
Speaker 2: team should have lost to the hapless Thomas Brown coordinated

209
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:39,240
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears last week. Like that's that's where, right this

210
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,040
Speaker 2: Packer team is not. It is not a dominant team

211
00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,480
Speaker 2: by any stretch. They're a good team. GYR Alexander, by

212
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:49,000
Speaker 2: the way, might not go. He never known he's gonna

213
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:50,840
Speaker 2: be in and out of the lineup. But I just

214
00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:55,160
Speaker 2: think this Packer team is turnover prone. I think their

215
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,840
Speaker 2: defense can still be beat on the ground, and I

216
00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,200
Speaker 2: think the Niners with Kiddle back, we'll be able to

217
00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:04,200
Speaker 2: do it through the air, you know, pretty so our

218
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,760
Speaker 2: shoulder or not. I mean, this guy's averaging. You know

219
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,440
Speaker 2: you're going to average closet to you know, eight yards

220
00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,480
Speaker 2: in attempt if not more so. Give me the San

221
00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,080
Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers in a rare for them these days,

222
00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:17,760
Speaker 2: underdog spot plus two and a half.

223
00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean forty hours easily could have like eight

224
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,120
Speaker 3: wins on the year that you know. The Chiefs game,

225
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,719
Speaker 3: they lose every all of their receivers at once, the

226
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,480
Speaker 3: Cardinals they lose their kicker, the Rams, they lowed that

227
00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,320
Speaker 3: ten point lead, the Seahawks, they give up a game

228
00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,760
Speaker 3: winning touchdown in the final seconds, and they dealt with

229
00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,600
Speaker 3: a ton of injuries all throughout the season. Hackers also

230
00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,120
Speaker 3: struggle to defend outside zone. That's important against the forty

231
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,880
Speaker 3: nine ers. Too many injuries as of right now to

232
00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,640
Speaker 3: which injury in certain for me to get to meet

233
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,160
Speaker 3: to get involved. I will have a forty nine Ers teast.

234
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,160
Speaker 3: They're my favorite teaser piece, and I do show value

235
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:55,760
Speaker 3: in the numbers, so I don't hate it. I and

236
00:12:55,840 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers with getting McCaffrey's now getting act

237
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,920
Speaker 3: to full strength. They can throw it, they can run it.

238
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,199
Speaker 3: This is the best red zone offense in the NFL

239
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,560
Speaker 3: last year. Now they're one of the worst. That's just variants.

240
00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:13,600
Speaker 3: They're gonna soon there's gonna be regression coming in that department.

241
00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,839
Speaker 3: You're gonna see an explosion of offense in one of

242
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,880
Speaker 3: these games. But important game for the forty nine ers

243
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:26,520
Speaker 3: for sure. For my first pick and the second overall

244
00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:32,920
Speaker 3: of the week twelve Sunday six pack, I'm going with

245
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 3: the Indianapolis Colts plus seven and a half against the

246
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,680
Speaker 3: Detroit Lions. I beat mister Campbell a couple of weeks ago.

247
00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,480
Speaker 3: I'm going back to the well. Every week is different

248
00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:44,280
Speaker 3: and you don't know what it's going to take.

249
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,800
Speaker 2: You earn that win, no matter what you say, you

250
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,000
Speaker 2: earn that win, and we will accept it.

251
00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 3: At number one. This number is ridiculous. I can't get there.

252
00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 3: I'm at like five eight, five to nine. The Lions

253
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,600
Speaker 3: are dominant. They're really, really good, But playing seven and

254
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,360
Speaker 3: a half on the road against a team that's not

255
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:09,200
Speaker 3: really bad, I can't get there. And this is just

256
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,840
Speaker 3: a classic. Why is this line so high? Well, what

257
00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,360
Speaker 3: happened last week? Everyone saw the Lions win fifty two

258
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,880
Speaker 3: to six. It's against a Jaguars team that is in

259
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,640
Speaker 3: the toilet with a Lane Duck head coach and Matt

260
00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:26,480
Speaker 3: Jones at quarterback. And they played the worst possible defense

261
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:31,240
Speaker 3: you could play against the Lions. And to put some

262
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,560
Speaker 3: numbers to why, you know these teams can get a

263
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 3: bit overinflated the week after that happens favorites of four

264
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,080
Speaker 3: or more after winning by thirty five or more points

265
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:45,480
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent against the spread. Historically, we've only since

266
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,600
Speaker 3: two thousand and three, we've only had forty November games

267
00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,360
Speaker 3: where a team is averaging over thirty three points per

268
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 3: game within ninety percent win percentage, so winning percentage thirty

269
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,160
Speaker 3: three plus points per game. Well, what does that mean?

270
00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,760
Speaker 3: You have these dominant teams, you gotta be averaging over

271
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 3: thirty three points per game and you've won ninety percent

272
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,280
Speaker 3: of your games. By the way, I think the Lions

273
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,160
Speaker 3: that are averaging three more points than any other team

274
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 3: in the league. What does that mean? Who wants to

275
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,920
Speaker 3: fade those teams winning ninety percent, scoring all those points. Well,

276
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,040
Speaker 3: it's only happened forty times since two thousand and three.

277
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:26,640
Speaker 3: Those teams, those Juggernauts, have only covered twelve times out

278
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,040
Speaker 3: of those forty. It's the peak of the market, the

279
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 3: very very peak of the market on the Lions. I

280
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 3: mean also, GoF has been nearly flawless versus man coverage,

281
00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:42,440
Speaker 3: like just unstoppable to year, even before facing the lowly Jags,

282
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:47,680
Speaker 3: and they're bad man on the year. GoF nine touchdowns,

283
00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 3: no interceptions, one hundred and forty four passer rating against

284
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 3: man coverage. That's the NFL by far. Verson seven touchdowns,

285
00:15:55,880 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 3: nine interceptions, eighty nine passer rating, very very pedestrian. Well,

286
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 3: who plays man on fewer snaps than the Colts? Nobody.

287
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 3: Colts played more zone than any team in the league.

288
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 3: That's what you want to do against the Lions. And

289
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,880
Speaker 3: we all talk about the Lions cover streak. What about

290
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 3: your guy Anthony Richardson, He's six and one against the spread.

291
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 3: He's all he does is cover. I think he's six

292
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,920
Speaker 3: and two against the spread as an underdog, and this

293
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,600
Speaker 3: is also this is just a good situational spot for

294
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 3: the Colts. This is a huge game for their season,

295
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 3: for their playoff prospects, whereas maybe the Lions it's a

296
00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 3: bit of a sleepy, trappy spot. You just put up

297
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,760
Speaker 3: fifty two. You're hearing how great you are, and you

298
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 3: have a game on a divisional game on Thursday and Thanksgiving,

299
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 3: like this is a non conference road game. So I

300
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 3: can see the Lions maybe being a bit flat. And

301
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 3: the Colts do play the right defense here, and I

302
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 3: think Anthony Richardson the lines play a ton of cover one.

303
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,160
Speaker 3: I think that's the defense that Anthony Richardson is gonna

304
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,000
Speaker 3: have a ton of success against with his legs or

305
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,920
Speaker 3: with his arms, with his arm in some of the

306
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 3: shots that he can throw boat too.

307
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,680
Speaker 2: Hey do you see Anny Richardson against the Jets. I

308
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 2: don't call him Anthony richards anymore. I call him Black

309
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:24,359
Speaker 2: GoF Now. He does it throw in completions, he doesn't scramble.

310
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 2: He has success. He has success outdoors which he didn't

311
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 2: have before. Like this is this is the new black guy.

312
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 2: He covers everything, he's covering, spreads left and right, Yeah,

313
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 2: that was That was the best I've seen him throw ever.

314
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, he looked great. And I think that some of

315
00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 3: the defense and the lines have always struggled over the

316
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,719
Speaker 3: past two years with mobile quarterbacks, the way that they

317
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 3: rushed the passer, and by the way this line's defense

318
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,760
Speaker 3: has had a ton of injuries. And you've already lost

319
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 3: Hudgeson now you lost your Green Dot manzalone. You've had

320
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 3: some depth guys go down. And look, the Lions are

321
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,199
Speaker 3: very good. They're one of the best teams in the NFL.

322
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 3: But you can't not say that they've been fortunate with

323
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,680
Speaker 3: the way that the schedule broke. I mean, you had

324
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 3: the Seahawks with all of those injuries. You played the Cowboys,

325
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,199
Speaker 3: who were I mean they are terrible, but they were

326
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 3: also decimated by injury. You played the Titans when you

327
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 3: had about three hundred yards of kick return yardage. He

328
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 3: played the Packers when Love wasn't fully healthy. He played

329
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,720
Speaker 3: the Texans who didn't you know, Collins couldn't go, And

330
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 3: then you play the Mac Jones Jags. So, yes, the

331
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,159
Speaker 3: lines are good, they're a real Super Bowl contender, but

332
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 3: a lot of things have broken their way. And yeah,

333
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 3: I think the Colts can keep this close. I hope

334
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 3: that Raymond can go at left tackle. He didn't practice.

335
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 3: He wouldn't have practiced, they would have been to walk through.

336
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:53,639
Speaker 3: I don't know if he will or not. Colts are

337
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:57,119
Speaker 3: and wait and see mode, so he doesn't. Maybe the

338
00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,200
Speaker 3: run game struggles a bit again this week. But I

339
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 3: think this sign's too high. All the Colts do also

340
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,880
Speaker 3: is just play close games every week. Yep, one possession

341
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 3: games every single week. So yeah, too high of a

342
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,920
Speaker 3: spread here, I think just peak of the market over

343
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 3: inflation on the lines. I got to take the home

344
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 3: dog here, give me the Colts.

345
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got chocolate goff. His on target rate of

346
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 2: eighty eight percent last week against a good Jets defense

347
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 2: or back end, especially ninetieth percentile for all quarterbacks who

348
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 2: started games this year, Like the transformation was just crazy.

349
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 2: I thought. I thought Stiking called a really good game,

350
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: gave just the route concepts, just gave him options no

351
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 2: matter what he wanted to do, to the point where

352
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 2: he didn't feel the need to run unnecessarily or you know,

353
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,239
Speaker 2: take too many deep shots or too many checkdowns. I

354
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 2: just thought whatever they did on that time off time off,

355
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 2: this year seems to be a theme of just helping

356
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 2: some of these young quarterbacks get back on schedule. I

357
00:19:56,080 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 2: think the Colts defense is a little bit underrated. When

358
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 2: we came into the year, we thought they were going

359
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,880
Speaker 2: to have the worst cornerback situation in the league. It's

360
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: turned out that Kenny Moore is playing really well on

361
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 2: in the slot. But guys like Womecking, you know, on

362
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 2: the outside, they're holding up. So you have a good interior.

363
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 2: We always knew that you have good linebackers. You have

364
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: a decent secondary now too. So the worst thing you

365
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 2: could say about their defense now is, oh, they run

366
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 2: this predictable scheme, but even that's kind of been getting

367
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 2: switched up a little, you know, game to game. So yeah,

368
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 2: I just the coach are a solid all around football

369
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 2: team right now, and some of their worst attributes are

370
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 2: things that are either improving or uncharacteristically bad. Like John said,

371
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 2: Terror was bad last week and they didn't have any

372
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 2: left tackle, but Richardson goes off. So yeah, I think

373
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 2: the Coats are trending up. I wouldn't be surprised to

374
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 2: see them in the think of the you know, the

375
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 2: wildcard race, all right, So we're back for my second

376
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 2: fig and the third overall of the week twelve Sunday

377
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 2: six pack. I am going with the count Panthers plus

378
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 2: eleven against the now defeated Kansas City Chiefs. The numbers

379
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 2: too high the Panthers when their quarterback Bryce Young was

380
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 2: one of the worst. They've got the worst quarterback we've

381
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: seen in the past what two decades maybe ever, just

382
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:28,159
Speaker 2: like Anthony Richardson, got a little break, came back, won

383
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 2: a couple of games, not really turning it over just

384
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 2: doing stupid things anymore, showing emotion, showing leadership on the field,

385
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 2: actually speaking out when his teammates do dumb shit, like

386
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 2: I just saw a different guy. They're also getting healthier.

387
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: Remember they they had guys on defense out, they had

388
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 2: guys on the offensive lineout. And by the way, their

389
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: offensive line is actually protecting very well for Bryce Young.

390
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: So now you're facing the Chiefs team, who I know

391
00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 2: they lost last week in you know, the streak end

392
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 2: because they had one I think it was fifteen straight

393
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 2: heading dating back to last season throughout the postseason, so

394
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,239
Speaker 2: super intense. They I think this is kind of a

395
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 2: deflate spot where they finally we could just kind of

396
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 2: you know, be a little just like all right, let

397
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 2: it go. So it's a non and it's really not

398
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 2: an important game in terms of the you know, like

399
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: it's a non conference game. It's on the road. The

400
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: Panthers are coming off of BUYE, which I think, given

401
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,959
Speaker 2: the way Bryce Young improved from just getting benched, I

402
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 2: think the buy might help. Because remember a lot of people,

403
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 2: including I believe you, and I thought, you know, Canalist

404
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: would be a big h you know, help for Bryce

405
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 2: Young and turn it around. And it was kind of

406
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: just discouraging to see that go go to shit in

407
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 2: the first two games. But you know, watching them recently,

408
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 2: especially these last couple of games, and even I go

409
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: back to that, you know, down the stretch against Denver.

410
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: Now it was kind of garbage time, but I saw

411
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: some positive things from Bryce Young there, and then he

412
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: carried it over into wins against the same and against

413
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 2: the Giants.

414
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 3: Uh.

415
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: And this Panther team is just they're just now like

416
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 2: a bad team, but like a competent bad team, not

417
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 2: just one of these teams of all time, like the

418
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: way the Levis Titans were earlier this year too, where

419
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,400
Speaker 2: it's just he was just you know, throwing the games away.

420
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 2: Now it's the Panthers who are ending careers. Ended Dennis

421
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 2: Allen Saints career two weeks ago, and did Daniel Jones

422
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 2: Giants career last last game. So, uh, this Saints team

423
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 2: is no law. I mean, this Panthers team is no longer.

424
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 3: They're also getting healthier, yeah, like big on both sides exactly.

425
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: And their defense. Listen, they're not gonna get a ton

426
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 2: of pressure, but the Falcons have been a bottom three

427
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 2: defensive pressure rate for years now, and they they always

428
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 2: managed to be mediocre. That's what I saw, and I

429
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 2: watched this Panther team because the team was always gonna

430
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 2: be bright. Now, the king was always gonna be right

431
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: now if he could just be competent and not completely terrible.

432
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 2: You have of you know, La Gat already has four

433
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 2: touchdowns as a rookie. He they traded Mingo, so like

434
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 2: they got a guy who can actually separate. They got

435
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 2: troop of Hubbard's having a career season to the point

436
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 2: where they drafted a what a Day two running back

437
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 2: and Jonathan Brooks and they just sat Hubbard to a

438
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: thirty three million dollar extension. He's playing so well. The

439
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 2: offensive line one of the best in the league in

440
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: all the metrics. Uh, you know the other rookie Sanders.

441
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: That tight end is coming on. Like everywhere you look.

442
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 2: This Panther team has decent town around offense. It was

443
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 2: just a quarterback holding them back. Now he's he's not.

444
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 2: I'm not going to sit here and pretend Bryce Young

445
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 2: is suddenly great or anything like that. But he looks okay.

446
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: He looks like, yeah, he looks kind of like when

447
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 2: Kayleb Williams went from you know, what is it we

448
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 2: won and two two weeks, you know, when he's when

449
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 2: they started beating some of the you know teams they

450
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: should be. It's just like he looks competent. Uh, it's

451
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: still gonna be some mistakes. He's still going to be

452
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 2: some some third down failures and whatnot. But he's not

453
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: he's not making the egregious mistakes. He's they're gonna hang

454
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 2: in the game. And we've seen this over and over

455
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 2: with the Kansas City Chiefs when they get these big spreads,

456
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 2: they don't cover. They may win, but they don't cover.

457
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 2: Kannessey as more than a three point favorite, with Mahomes

458
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 2: just nineteen and thirty four against the spread. Dating back

459
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 2: to November of twenty twenty one and for this season,

460
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: four times Mahomes has been a double digit road favorite.

461
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 2: He's three and one against the spread. A lot of

462
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,239
Speaker 2: ways that this Panther team could kind of hang in there.

463
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 2: By the way, seven of mahomes ten picks this year

464
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 2: have come in a clean pocket. So this is not

465
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: even one of those matchups where your lack of pressure

466
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: is going to necessary is going to kill you the

467
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: way it would against some of these other quarterbacks where

468
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: you specifically want to target only when you know the

469
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: other posting defense can get pressure. So just so many

470
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 2: things I like about this spot. And you know I

471
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 2: haven't I rarely bet against the Chiefs and I and

472
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 2: I've been. I've been laying off the Panthers all year

473
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: because they were just unbetedtable at one point. But from

474
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: what I see anyway, it looks like we're back. So

475
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 2: I see a team that can cover this number here.

476
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 2: So give me the Panthers plus eleven at home, low

477
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: total game to forty three and you have to cover eleven.

478
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 2: Really tough to do.

479
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is the right side. I don't

480
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 3: know if I can get there yet. One thing on

481
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: what I'm worried about here is, Yes, the Panthers offensive

482
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 3: line is very good when healthy, and they should be

483
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 3: able to provide adequate protection for Bryce Young, But on

484
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 3: passing downs, speG Noel is going to find ways to

485
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 3: get pressure, and I don't know if the Panthers can

486
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: really run the ball here. I do believe in the

487
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 3: Chiefs run defense, so like the third down mistakes, negative

488
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 3: plays might be rough for Bryce Young because I do

489
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: think that this I said this last week, the chief

490
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 3: secondary is so overrated and so attackle. They just kept playing

491
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 3: teams that went had all these injuries or just really

492
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: bad offenses. And we even saw that with again last

493
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: week with the Bills. You had your tackle, all these

494
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: weapons down and they stole they found Josh Allen found

495
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 3: a way to rip them up. Their secondary. The chief

496
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 3: secretary is not good. So yeah, convirice Young Tike advantage,

497
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. But my main worry is on the

498
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 3: other side of the wall. The Panthers cannot stop the run.

499
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 4: Right.

500
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 3: What the Panthers want to do is they're gonna play

501
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 3: a lot of zone that's not great against Mahomes. They

502
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 3: can't generate pressure. They try to do it with the blitz.

503
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 3: That's not great against Mahomes, but they usually just sit

504
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 3: back in the zones and they try to prevent explosive plays.

505
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 3: I mean, who cares about preventing explosive places against chief

506
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 3: They don't have any explosiveness, so like they give up.

507
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 3: They like the Chiefs, what they do is just success

508
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 3: rate you to death. They run the ball and then

509
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 3: just success rate you with Mahome who can just tear

510
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 3: apart zones Like I just I'm fearful that the Chiefs

511
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 3: are just gonna move up and down the field at will.

512
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 3: But it's a big number. It's not even a great spot,

513
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 3: like just you like, it's kind of deflating after that game.

514
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 3: You know, you have a short week divisional game like

515
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 3: you're going to Carolina. So I think some people might

516
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 3: look at it as like a rallying spot. I think

517
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 3: the Chiefs might be a bit flat. But I just

518
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 3: worry about that Carolina defense, how they play, and especially

519
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 3: the Rundy in just getting any stops. And then Bryce

520
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: Young makes a couple of mistakes and this gets out

521
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: of hand. But the Chiefs never cover these big numbers.

522
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: So I don't blame you at all. But that's just

523
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: my biggest.

524
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 2: Concern Ryce Young. The one thing at the very least

525
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: Bryce Young is now that he probably you couldn't say

526
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 2: before is if you needed to get their back door,

527
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: He's capable now, it's not just a done deal if

528
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 2: they get behind.

529
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 3: For my second pick and the fourth overall the week

530
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:05,959
Speaker 3: twelve Sunday six pack, I'm going with Will Levis and

531
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: the Titans eight and a half against the Houston Texans.

532
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 3: I've avoided them for the past. My proudest accomplishment of

533
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 3: this NFL season is not betting the Titans over the

534
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: past three weeks. Actually no, I'm sorry I did. I

535
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 3: bet him against the Patriots over the past two weeks. However,

536
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: I would argue they should have covered both games if

537
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: you look at I don't know if you watch this game,

538
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: and I can say this, I watch the game unbiased

539
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: because I when I didn't bet, I didn't bet them.

540
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: You know they had they finished with higher net yards

541
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: per play? Did know better? I did a positive net

542
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 3: yards per play against the Chargers, and I think they

543
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: should have covered that game. Against the Vikings last week,

544
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 3: again a positive net yards per play. The Vikings goes

545
00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 3: to four and a half yards play. The reps in

546
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 3: that game were I've never seen officials that bad. The

547
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: game changing calls, there was like seven of them in

548
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 3: like the per the roughing in the end zone on

549
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 3: the downstop that was there was like so there was

550
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 3: a bunch of illegal formations, like some of them that touchdowns,

551
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: I've never seen. They're like a horse cow. There was

552
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 3: so many bad calls. At one point it was like

553
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 3: eight penalties for eight like game swinging penalties for like

554
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 3: eighty yards to one penalty. That was ridiculous. I was

555
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 3: so happy that I was not on the Titans in

556
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 3: that game. But look, they're one and nine against the spread.

557
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 3: It's remarkable. One of the team that started off that

558
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 3: poorly through eleven weeks of two thousand and seven. Ravens,

559
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 3: I remember them fondly, but at the Titans, They're eventually

560
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 3: not just gonna have every single breakout against them. I

561
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: mean when it either when it comes to turnovers, they're

562
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 3: special teams. Weeks, the refs, I mean, it is ridiculous

563
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 3: that a lot of this stuff is high variance. Now,

564
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: are they a good team? No, But I will say

565
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 3: will Levis has played better. Yes, over the past two weeks,

566
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: he's sitting around like twenty twentieth twenty first adjusted EPA

567
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: per play, and he played the two good defenses and

568
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: the Chargers and the Vikings. He's still playing without a

569
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: right tackle, which is obviously concerning. There's gonna be sacks

570
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 3: in this game. That's just how it is. I mean

571
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 3: that the Titan's right tackle situation is abysmal. I mean,

572
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 3: you have a Lee Roy Watts. They were worried about

573
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 3: Lee Roy Watson being out. Lest Lee Roy Watson is horrendous.

574
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 3: But Petite Ferrera can't play. And then they who do

575
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 3: they have up there? They had some practice squad guy

576
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 3: they had playing last week, Piercer Isaiah Prince. I think

577
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: Isaiah Prince who got elevated from the practice squad. He

578
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 3: was in there. He will is so so bad. So yeah,

579
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 3: they don't have a right tackle. Their offensive line isn't great,

580
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 3: but Levis is playing better, and they're using a They're

581
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: sprinkling in more read option stuff, which I think is

582
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 3: smart with Levis utilizes legs a bit more, defenses a

583
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 3: bit more off balance. And this Titans defense continues to

584
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 3: play well. And where is the Titans defense the strongest

585
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 3: it's up the middle, in the interior of the defense.

586
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, against like just like the Lions could shut down

587
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 2: mix in.

588
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it may, and they can get pressure, especially if

589
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 3: the middle, and that's where you can just that's why

590
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,959
Speaker 3: this Texans offense is right now, it's broken. You got

591
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 3: Nico Collins back, that'll help. You'll get a few more explosives.

592
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 3: But I mean this offense is ugly right now. The interior,

593
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 3: the offensive line can't block at all, and the Titans

594
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 3: are built to take all advantage of that. Not only

595
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 3: to slow down mixing, which is that's like the the

596
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 3: head of the snake of this offense right now. If

597
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 3: you cut him off, you get into passing downs. They're

598
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 3: going to create negative play. There's gonna be a lot

599
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 3: of sacks in this game. I think. Look at this total.

600
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: So I am Titan's second un luckiest team in the

601
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 3: league Parer of Luck Rankings. For what it's worth, this

602
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 3: Texans seems not great as a favorite. Under Stroud, We've

603
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 3: been over that they get too conservative at times, and yeah,

604
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,719
Speaker 3: I mean the luck is going to change at one point.

605
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 3: Levis is playing a bit better, and yeah, this number

606
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 3: is just a bit too high for a divisional game

607
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 3: with a Texans offense that is still figuring some things out,

608
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: and I think that I think that the Titans have

609
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 3: some good defensive advantages in this game. They also do

610
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 3: a good job of revetting explose of plays, so like

611
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 3: they're gonna make the Texans work for it. And right now,

612
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 3: just with their offensive line problems and the Tennessee's ability

613
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 3: to slow down mixing, I don't think they're gonna have

614
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: a ton of success doing that. So I think it

615
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: is a lower scoring game points through out a premium

616
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 3: short week for the Texans. Titans to me seem like

617
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 3: they're still fighting. So I like the Titans, We're gonna

618
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 3: give this one one last try, one last dance, Will Levis,

619
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 3: I'm begging you just get inside that number.

620
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 2: I would proud of myself too, because I this was

621
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 2: on my list and I I felt like you, like

622
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: you might have taken one of my picks, So I

623
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 2: was trying to expertly navigate so that you ended up

624
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 2: because you were you. You have the last pick. I

625
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 2: just wanted you to end up with the Titans so

626
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: I didn't have to take them, because yeah, I'm there,

627
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 2: and I think they're something else with Houston that I

628
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 2: don't I don't know how much time, you know, it

629
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: has been talked about it because there's so many things

630
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 2: going on in Houston. But I was rewatching that Sunday

631
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: night game, and what really struck me when I, you know,

632
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 2: just watched you play play play and you know, wasn't

633
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 2: watching it live anymore, was they have a discipline problem,

634
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 2: Like they have a coaching problem. They do so much

635
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 2: stupid ship in the course of the game, so somebody

636
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: stupid Tennessee.

637
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 5: Yeah there, yeah, but but Tennessee has, like Tennessee has

638
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 5: had more things go against it, and they don't have

639
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 5: the quality of players that Houston had.

640
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 2: Like I think Houston actually has a problem with how

641
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 2: they practice or something, because it's almost like they practice

642
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 2: they practiced like in this like arrogant lay or something,

643
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: and they think all this stuff is just going to

644
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: go exactly how it goes in practice in the game,

645
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: and then it doesn't and it just like are just

646
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 2: completely unprepared for like a ref to blow, you know,

647
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 2: to blow us to throw a flag on something that's

648
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: obviously a flag, and they, I mean, they're wherever we

649
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 2: touns was supposed to be their best lineman. He's he's

650
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: just commits so many errors every game, and their interior

651
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 2: is even worse. Stroud makes a you know, a couple

652
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 2: of bone headed plays every game. I mean, what was

653
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: that the other week where where the aligneman tried to

654
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 2: strip Stroud?

655
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 3: Right, I was just gonna bring that up. Titus tried

656
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 3: to take the ball on it would have been it

657
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 3: was a third and twenty two.

658
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:31,240
Speaker 2: It's so so he has this great reputation and Slow

659
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 2: it does too. But like sometimes I think Slow is

660
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: like scared. That's why he's running so much, because he's

661
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 2: scared if he lets like see, it's like if they

662
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 2: drop back to pass. If I'm thinking about which side,

663
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 2: I'm more nervous about what it's. It's the Texans having

664
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: to cover that number, then the Titans having to cover

665
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 2: that numbers.

666
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 3: I need points a premium here, which makes it even

667
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 3: tougher to cover this number. Divisional game home field advantages

668
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 3: is less for what it's worth. Spoiler alert, This is

669
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 3: my favorite total, so I'll just get that out now.

670
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 3: And it's also one of Nick Giffen's Nick Goat. He's

671
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 3: one of his favorite luck unders of the entire NFL season,

672
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 3: so you know, a lower scoring obviously makes those points

673
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 3: even more valuable. But Lassiter should be back. I don't

674
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 3: think will I Anderson will be back until early December,

675
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 3: but Lassiter and Stanley. The one thing I do believe

676
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 3: in is this Texans defense, so it's hard for me

677
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: to envision. And both teams do a good job of

678
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 3: limiting exposive plays. Both teams are slow, so be a

679
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 3: slow paced game, and I think there's gonna be a

680
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 3: ton of negative plays that are gonna kill drives. Stroud's

681
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 3: gonna get sacked a bunch with the interior pressure, and

682
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 3: Levis is he's been what sacked twelve times the past

683
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 3: two games, and Patas is gonna take yeah, and then

684
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 3: there's gonna be penalties, so there's just gonna be so

685
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: many drives killed and that I think this ends up

686
00:37:56,480 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 3: being like I'll call it, like twenty to fourteen or something,

687
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 3: twenty to thirteen somewhere in that ballpark. So yeah, that's

688
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 3: my favorite totals. Well, but where are you going for

689
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 3: your next pick?

690
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 2: For my third and final pick of the week, twelve

691
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack and the overall go with the Dallas Cowboys.

692
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: Plus eleven at Washington.

693
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 3: Oh Iven, this is some kind of six pack.

694
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:30,839
Speaker 6: Hello, we skunk skunk, this is this is a better

695
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 6: like you gotta I mean, if you at the Titans,

696
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 6: is new at the Cowboys for some reason, it's just

697
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:37,399
Speaker 6: how it's gonna go this year, I guess.

698
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 2: But uh, look, Dallas has looked horrible two weeks in

699
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: a row. I mean, you guns, the Falcons, they are there,

700
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 2: they were, don't look horrible. It's kind of normal Dallas

701
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 2: dump dumb stuff going on. But you know, without Dack,

702
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 2: they looked horrible these past two weeks. But look at

703
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: what's going on kind of slowly. Defense is probably getting

704
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 2: a little healthier now. The offense is in shambles, but

705
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 2: Cooper Rush has been here before. He played two of

706
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: the best defense is in the league in its first

707
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 2: two starts. Now we've seen Cooper Rush wead the Cowboys

708
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 2: to a winning record, you know, in place of Dat

709
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 2: Prescott in the stint that he had starting before this one.

710
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: I think it was twenty twenty two. I want to say.

711
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: So he's not just like the worst quarterback of all time.

712
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 2: He's not what's his name, like Tim Boyle or you know,

713
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 2: one of those guys. He's competent, he's got ceedee lamb.

714
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 2: And if you watched this Texan Cowboy game, which I

715
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 2: mean it was it was rough to watch live and

716
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 2: it was kind of rough to rewatch too, But this

717
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 2: is this is the one, like a ten point game.

718
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 2: In the fourth quarter, at one point, Dallas kicks a

719
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: field goal. Of course the Texas comit the penalty, they

720
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 2: take the field off the board. Dallas drives I think

721
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:58,959
Speaker 2: inside the ten It.

722
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 3: Was a head slot.

723
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. I was like, I mean, Dallas is just catching

724
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 2: all the bad luck and you look at the spot

725
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 2: and NFL teams just don't roll over. So I know

726
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 2: people are gonna question the motivation and whatnot, and that's fair.

727
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 3: But maybe like the last week, but that's that's yeah.

728
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 2: But when you have Rich kot Tye or somebody as

729
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 2: your head coach. But yeah, the reason I think the

730
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 2: Cowboys get up for this one is number one, they

731
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: just got They got blown out in the division game

732
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. They got blown out interstate rival, not

733
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: a rival, but you know, interstate whatever you want to

734
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 2: call it. Last week, but this week it's division games

735
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 2: and it's their own defensive coordinator. You know who he

736
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,399
Speaker 2: leaves them, and now he's riding high with this new

737
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 2: this rookie quarterback, and it's like, this is the game

738
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 2: that I think that defense is gonna want to show

739
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 2: up for, and this could and their team is vulnerable.

740
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 2: We've talked about this. They they get super lucky on

741
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 2: the in the Chicago Hill Mary. Obviously we knew, like

742
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 2: we saw Jaydon Daniels be completely ordinary against the Steelers

743
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 2: and frankly most of the Giants game too. Now everyone's

744
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 2: gonna say it's just a rib injury, but if you

745
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: really look at this team outside of Danigels on offense,

746
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 2: you got what Terry McLaurin, who can still be shut down,

747
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 2: and what else like the ghost of Zach Ert, some

748
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 2: shaky tackles, some overachieving offensive line. Noah Brown is a

749
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 2: number two receiver, the Cowboys cut him like years ago.

750
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 2: And then on defense you're still bottom ten. You got

751
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 2: lot of more okay, but Seede Lamp still better. So

752
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 2: this is not a scary Washington team. Tallent wise swift.

753
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: Kingsbury's offenses annually go in the toilet around his time

754
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 2: of year, and there are some real reasons why that

755
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 2: could be the case that it's not just fully randomness

756
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: any thing, because he is one of those coordinators. He

757
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 2: doesn't move his receivers around as much as some others do. Uh,

758
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 2: you know, his philosophy is more, you know, we want

759
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 2: to master the We want to master what we are

760
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 2: doing instead of consistently you know, adjusting and game planning

761
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: for and kind of you know, showing tendencies and breaking

762
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 2: tendencies and doing all these things. So around this time

763
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 2: of year, you've seen and you've pointed this out, like

764
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 2: every year, you're always just chiming at the bits to

765
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 2: fade Cliff back when he's with the Cardinals because it

766
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 2: just kind of gets stale this time of year. And

767
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 2: I just think, Washington.

768
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 3: You just get film on what he's doing.

769
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 2: Why so, I mean you're get we're getting double digits

770
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 2: in a divisional road game. Jayden Daniels ten games into

771
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 2: his careers is laying You're laying ten over ten. I

772
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 2: just think it's way too many points. I have this

773
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 2: closer to eight, even with all the cowboy injuries. I've

774
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 2: seen Cooper Rush uh cover spreads and win games before

775
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 2: in place of Prescott with a with a very similar

776
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 2: defense to what they got going on now. I mean

777
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 2: hearts of his back that's big. You might you might

778
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 2: get you know, some some of the secondary back as well.

779
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 2: So at the end of the day, I think Washington's

780
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 2: still overrated and you probably aren't gonna fall much lower

781
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 2: than mister Dallas. I mean the owner has lost his

782
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 2: ship again. Uh, the sky is literally falling in the stadium.

783
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 2: Got to roll with the cowboys in this spot.

784
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 3: I don't know if I can get there.

785
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 7: It's but I think it's the right the right spot

786
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 7: and the right side is a bad spot though Washington

787
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 7: off Max Rest played on a Thursday, Dallas short week end,

788
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 7: a game on Thursday on Thanksgiving.

789
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 3: And but there's like certain players might check out you

790
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 3: know who's got risk of looking like he's gonna check

791
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 3: out a CD lamb because he just can't get hit

792
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 3: in the numbers by rush Mon. Need to have a

793
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 3: couple beverages to build up the carriage to pull the

794
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 3: trigger there. But I do think the cliff fade late

795
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: in the season is real.

796
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 2: And before we move on here, ay quick announcement. Action

797
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 2: Network is running back our annual Black Friday sale, offering

798
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:23,280
Speaker 2: our best price of the year on a year long

799
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 2: Action Pro subscription. If you're still on a Pro subscriber,

800
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 2: visit Actionnetwork dot Com Slash Black Friday and you can

801
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,800
Speaker 2: get forty dollars off a year or Pro receive instant

802
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 2: access to all of the picks and projections for myself,

803
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 2: Sean Kerner, Stucky and the whole Action Network squad. It's

804
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 2: Actionnetwork dot Com Slash Black Friday for the best price

805
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 2: of the year on Action Pro.

806
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 3: From my final pick and the sixth overall of the

807
00:44:56,320 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 3: week twelve Sunday six pack. It was ugly so far.

808
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 3: It's not getting any preyer. I'm going with Tommy Cutlets

809
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 3: and the New York Giants plus six at home against

810
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah, we're riding with Tommy DeVito.

811
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 2: Start spreading the new look.

812
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito is terrible. Not gonna sit here and tell

813
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 3: you that he's good. Although he is two and oh

814
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 3: at home. I think he's two and oh against the

815
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 3: spread home. That's something Daniel Jones couldn't do. Daniel Jones

816
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 3: afraid to play in New York. Daniel Jones been so bad?

817
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 3: How how like how big of a drop off really be?

818
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 2: It's it's it's a. It's a big drop off.

819
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 3: Have a couple of points. That's it's appen. This is

820
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 3: also more about I think it's gonna be a lower

821
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 3: scoring game, too slow teams outdoors. This is more about

822
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 3: the Giants defensive matchup against Baker Mayfield. We like to

823
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 3: bet against him when he's under pressure without against teams

824
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,120
Speaker 3: that can get pressure without having the blitz. Well, the

825
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 3: Giants can do that. That's the strength of their team.

826
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 3: And Tristan Wurf's I assume is going to miss this

827
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 3: game is week to week, so on the side of

828
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 3: practice doesn't look very mobile right now. One of the

829
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 3: best tackles in the NFL. You're taking him out of

830
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 3: this lineup. Thibodeau, by the way, he should be back

831
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 3: this week for the Giants, and they can get pressure

832
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 3: from all over like there's a real chance at the

833
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 3: Giants defensive line forces Mayfield into multiple mistakes. By the way,

834
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 3: that our luck rankings, Giants are the unluckiest team in

835
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: the league, Titans the second luckiest, and this Bucks team.

836
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 3: If you dig deeper, like I'm not, I'm lower than

837
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 3: the market on this Bucks team, I mean they and

838
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 3: get back to the first before I get to the Giants.

839
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 3: They're unlucky. I mean they've been so unlucky with turnovers.

840
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 3: They have five to one possession losses, six if you

841
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 3: count the Bengals game, because the Bengals broke a run late,

842
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,839
Speaker 3: like they've been in most games this year. And if

843
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 3: you look at the Bucks, like they got the Lions

844
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 3: win where they were out gained by like three hundred

845
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 3: yards because the Lions couldn't score in the red zone.

846
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 3: They got the Eagles without all of their offensive weapons.

847
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 3: They got to face the Saints without anyone on their

848
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 3: team and Spencer Rattler starting. They got Daniels in Washington

849
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 3: and Daniels's first ever start rookie on the road. So like,

850
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 3: they've been unlucky in some games, but they've also had

851
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 3: a ton of scheduling breaks as far as injuries and

852
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 3: when they played teams. This is a team. This is

853
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 3: a below average team laying six on the road, and

854
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: they're not fully healthy. Worse, no Godwin, Mike Evans should

855
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,360
Speaker 3: be back, but is he one hundred percent? Is he

856
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 3: a full go? I don't know, Uh, you know, their

857
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 3: secondary isn't fully healthy. Dean activated off I R says

858
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 3: he's gonna go is he one hundred percent? I don't know.

859
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 3: Zion McCollum he was today, don't think he's playing so

860
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 3: And Devido actually is like if you look dig deep

861
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 3: into some of his numbers versus Joneses and the deep balls,

862
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 3: like well, actually he's actually more willing to throw them,

863
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 3: and his numbers are actually a bit better on deep balls.

864
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 3: So like, can we get neighbors more involved here? He

865
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 3: should have some A plus matchup in this Bucks team.

866
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 3: It's not like they're great defending the run. It's not

867
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 3: like they're great at generating pressure. And I gotta believe

868
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 3: Dable well, I respect there's been guys wide open by

869
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 3: the way every week for the Giants.

870
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, the Fleet Flicker, I think we all remember,

871
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 2: just doesn't throw it and that by the end of

872
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: his career, like that that that specific play because there

873
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 2: was that one guy open, there were two. He had

874
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 2: his choice of three runners into the end zone for

875
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 2: a touchdown and he held the ball. So I think

876
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 2: that that Loki might have done it. It was either that

877
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 2: or there's a misplaced ball that How about the ball

878
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 2: did he just hand to Josie Jewel, Like I mean

879
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 2: that that Panthers game is absurd. It's just unbelievable.

880
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 3: Like, so, yeah, I gotta believe Dabele, who is basically

881
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 3: trying to save his job. I have a lot of

882
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 3: respect for him. I think he's a great play caller,

883
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 3: play designer. I gotta believe that he did. It's very bizarre.

884
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 3: Tell people were like, oh, they're tanking. They're not tanking Maras.

885
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 3: They're not tanking losing games on purpose by starting.

886
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 2: They might be.

887
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 3: I don't know.

888
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: I think they might be. Eric came out and Ark

889
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 2: came out five years.

890
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 3: Ago and was like that they would he would never trust,

891
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 3: never trust him.

892
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,319
Speaker 2: He trust me. I'm a Giants. You don't ever trust

893
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 2: that guy. Man, That is my That.

894
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:25,760
Speaker 3: Was It did cross my mind, like paid five million

895
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 3: for Drew Locke. Yeah, start again. I think that Davil

896
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 3: has to think that he sees something. He either doesn't

897
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 3: see anything in Lock or he sees something more with it.

898
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,880
Speaker 2: It's Mara, It's got merror all over it because I've

899
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 2: seen it before. Like I never really had looked into

900
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 2: owners because I was kind of just getting my few

901
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 2: wet in the betting industry. I was more fantasy guy.

902
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: So I remember when the whole Eui benching happened, I

903
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 2: just couldn't understand it. So I started digging in and

904
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,879
Speaker 2: turned out I saw Mara. This has the exact same

905
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 2: feel of it, because Mara, he has no idea what

906
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:00,919
Speaker 2: the hell he's doing. He's moroven is over and over.

907
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 2: Coaching's worried me. Number one, the Vito might be the

908
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 2: like you talk about lucky. He might be the luckiest

909
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:08,760
Speaker 2: quarterback right. I would wake him back and watch those games.

910
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 2: He would be on the field, they would they wouldn't

911
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 2: throw beyond the line of scrimmage, they wouldn't even throw

912
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 2: half the time, and then you would look up and

913
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 2: it would go from like Giants down ten nothing to

914
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 2: Giants up seventeen to ten because the other team just

915
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 2: had a three turn up, Like the Giant had so

916
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 2: many turnovers in that stretch that de Vito is playing.

917
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:32,839
Speaker 2: He just got super lucky. But the reason I think

918
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,879
Speaker 2: it's like I'm worried about it is because I think

919
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 2: Dabo is smarter than that, and like would have just

920
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 2: put would have just stuck with Daniel Jones or put

921
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 2: Drew Locke in.

922
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 3: I'm assuming to be those sucks, yeah, but they're not

923
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 3: gonna actively Tank. They're still professionals, they got they're playing

924
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 3: for their jobs, they're playing for Patricks. Dabel is going

925
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 3: to coach to win Mars, probably trying to sabotage it,

926
00:50:55,640 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 3: but yeah, yeah, Tank, you're shooting to beat in there,

927
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: and I don't care. I can't get to this number.

928
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 3: I think that the Giants defensive line could dominate this game.

929
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 3: I'm not a believer in this books team. Let's recap these.

930
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 2: All right, man, this is this is sorry, this is uh.

931
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 3: And I'm sorry to anyone listening.

932
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 2: This is Anthony Richardson, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Tommy Covido.

933
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson's your best quarterback and most accurate. No, well,

934
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 2: I guess we have was probably the most accurate one.

935
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,879
Speaker 2: But yeah, Richardson's your best quarterback by far. And then

936
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:40,319
Speaker 2: I got a sore shouldered brock Perdy, who I mean,

937
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 2: let's be real with our injury. Luck's probably gonna sit

938
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 2: Bryce Young against Patrick mahone. I think Cooper Ruschigan's day

939
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 2: and Daniels oh man. That's how it's six back per

940
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: week number twelve, folks. I back to our roots, baby, Yeah, yeah,

941
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: that's time for the coaches pep talk. Every time we

942
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 2: get ready to play, I just want to throw up.

943
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 2: I'm sick I watching you guys play.

944
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 3: Just how bad can it get?

945
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 2: All right? This week's coaches pep Talk is suggested by

946
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 2: not our producer Man Mitchell, but by me because I'm

947
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:30,760
Speaker 2: saying hello to the Panthers again, to the Colors again.

948
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: Stuck you back on the I. This could go bad,

949
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: but it also could go real good. So yeah, this

950
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 2: has got to be dedicated to dust for reunions going

951
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 2: back to the well. Yeah, man, hello darkness.

952
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 4: Smile friend, I've come to talk with you again because

953
00:52:55,719 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 4: they vision softly Creeping did seize while I was sleeping,

954
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 4: and the vision that was planted in Mary Stealings of Silent.

955
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:22,919
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our favorite total of week.

956
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 2: All right, both of us seven and four each on total,

957
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 2: So that's what fourteen and eight on a year? I

958
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: went first for the six pack. Where you going with

959
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,280
Speaker 2: your total? Alrighty?

960
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 3: Whatever, mind fight us Texans some host diet under some

961
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 3: correlation obviously with the Titans side here, but I'll double dip.

962
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,240
Speaker 3: I like the under as I talked about earlier.

963
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,879
Speaker 2: Where are you going, let's go back to the well

964
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:54,799
Speaker 2: Eagles Rams first half under twenty four and a half

965
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 2: is out there, twenty three and a half if you

966
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 2: can't get that, but we'll go to twenty four and

967
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 2: a half for the show. And this Eagles team, I

968
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,719
Speaker 2: still think their defense is being a little underrated. I

969
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 2: mean a shutdown Jayden Daniels and that Commander offense for

970
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 2: a good portion of the game. That game shouldn't have

971
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 2: been as high scoring as it was on Thursday night,

972
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:19,919
Speaker 2: but it started super slow. And the Eagles are joining

973
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 2: the party in terms of kicker Tom Foolery. So the

974
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:29,399
Speaker 2: Rams always been a member of that group. So you're

975
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 2: gonna probably have some miskicks and this so the first half,

976
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 2: so that's when you're more likely to get kicks in

977
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,359
Speaker 2: the first place. The Eagles are gonna come out, They're

978
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:43,839
Speaker 2: going to run the football, and their defense is good

979
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 2: enough that you're not going to get I don't think

980
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 2: any explosives from Nkua and Cup. I think they're going

981
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 2: to have to go down the field. And you know

982
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 2: that's what Stafford has been doing most of the year.

983
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:57,839
Speaker 2: He doesn't really trust his offensive line. They aren't getting

984
00:54:57,880 --> 00:54:59,800
Speaker 2: health here but I don't think you're gonna see this

985
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 2: those team give up much or as much as you know,

986
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 2: almost any other team in the league would to the

987
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 2: kop end Cup. So it's gonna have to be a

988
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 2: lot of those like four or five yard passes, and

989
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:13,440
Speaker 2: maybe not even only to those guys. It might have

990
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 2: to be you might have to throw to uh Tyron

991
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 2: or Davis Allen a little bit more. And uh that

992
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 2: those those haven't been going as well for Staffords as

993
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,280
Speaker 2: you know, nicol end Cup, because this is this Eagles

994
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 2: defense is one of the best at if not the

995
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 2: best now defending wide receivers just kind of came out

996
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 2: of nowhere. But those rookies are playing really well. So

997
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:36,280
Speaker 2: like the first half, because I think second half, uh,

998
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 2: you know, could start picking up. We saw it in

999
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 2: the in that Thursday night game against the Commanders. So,

1000
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 2: uh the Eagles first half only to two losses on

1001
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 2: the under on two overs this year all year. So uh,

1002
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 2: Eagles rams first half under its indoors. People think it's

1003
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 2: gonna be super high scoring, uh Sunday night football unders

1004
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 2: in general. I've just been hitting out a monstrous rate

1005
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 2: this year. So that's the same clip.

1006
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind it.

1007
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 2: Uh.

1008
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 3: I think the Eagles defense turnaround is real. The Fangio

1009
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 3: switch has been hit Eagles first five weeks, they were

1010
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 3: twenty seventh in EPA per drive allout and since then

1011
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:21,399
Speaker 3: they're number one, and their rookie corners are playing really well.

1012
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 3: Quinya Mitchell has been shutting down some of the best

1013
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 3: receivers in the NFL. Now they have benefited from some

1014
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 3: opponent luck and who they've played. And maybe you know,

1015
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 3: you could say Daniels wasn't healthy, but the I go

1016
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 3: back to the Bengals game. That's what really impressed me

1017
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 3: and where I really took notice when they shut down

1018
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 3: that high powered Bengals offense. So, and I think the

1019
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 3: Rams defense is a bit under.

1020
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: That's some pretty pressured yeah, which.

1021
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 3: Is what you need to do against hurt. So I

1022
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: like it all right.

1023
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 2: So Eagles Rams under four and a half first half

1024
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 2: and the Titans Texans under what was that forty two?

1025
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:09,360
Speaker 2: It's a luck under, by the way. Shout out to

1026
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 2: our guy, Nick Giffen and the Hill Action Analytics team.

1027
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our underdog money line are.

1028
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:23,520
Speaker 1: Late turning good weekends into great weekends.

1029
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. All right, and

1030
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 2: might notice we skip the teeter segment this week. That's because,

1031
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 2: as Stuck you mentioned at the top, really not any

1032
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 2: long teasers, you know, just buy the numbers that are

1033
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,520
Speaker 2: out there. Six teams on buys, so don't love anything

1034
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 2: outside of the Niners teasing them up, you know, to

1035
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 2: eight and a half. But we already talked about that

1036
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 2: in the six packs. So we'll go right into our

1037
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 2: underdogs here, Stuck, we.

1038
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 3: Got let's go with the Raiders. I think the Broncos

1039
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 3: are getting a little too rich. Heer laying five and

1040
00:57:56,240 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 3: a half. I mean, you have to remember when these

1041
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 3: two teams played earlier this season, the Raiders in Denver

1042
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 3: ten to three at the goal line about the fourteen, yeah,

1043
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 3: about to go up seventeen three and through one hundred

1044
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 3: yard pick six. Certain had one hundre yard pick six

1045
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 3: that really flipped that game around. But I mean, bo

1046
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 3: Nix has been better. I backed him last week, my

1047
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 3: easiest whin I ever had all year. But you got

1048
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 3: to remember the Falcons can't get pressure and they were

1049
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:27,840
Speaker 3: down everyone in their secondary. Now the reason this didn't

1050
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 3: make the six back and I'm just taking a shot

1051
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,640
Speaker 3: with the underdog money in my place, because there is

1052
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 3: variants and the injury report and I don't know. I

1053
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:38,880
Speaker 3: don't know at the offensive line, and then I don't

1054
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 3: know who's playing in the secondary. But Knicks is just

1055
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 3: he's been. He's basically been what Cousins was. Cousins was

1056
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 3: the NFC South merchant. Knicks is the other NFC South

1057
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 3: Merchant's four to zher against the NFC South, against all

1058
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:56,760
Speaker 3: these defenses that can't get pressure, the Raiders can at

1059
00:58:56,840 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 3: least get pressure. Getting a little too expensively length five

1060
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 3: and a half on the road against the Raiders.

1061
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 2: I don't know if the Raiders are that team. I

1062
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 2: think I actually think the change in coordinator works against

1063
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 2: him because usually, you know, the second divisional game, tighter

1064
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 2: can switch it up and kind of go off things

1065
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 2: he did the first time. But now they're kind of

1066
00:59:16,080 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: starting from scratch and they they're all over the place.

1067
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 2: Dennis playing really well. I almost see a little bit

1068
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 2: of I wouldn't be surprised if we're sitting here in

1069
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 2: either later this year or maybe it's early next year,

1070
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 2: and his Bronco team is looked at the way the

1071
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:40,480
Speaker 2: Eagles were when Jay when hurt started ascending. Remember you

1072
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 2: know Jayalen Hurts up. At the beginning, we just didn't

1073
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 2: think you could throw a football. No, we didn't really

1074
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:47,360
Speaker 2: take him seriously. And then all of a sudden, it

1075
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 2: was like his defense was good. And then he just

1076
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 2: started not making mistakes. And then I see that same

1077
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 2: ascension for I could see that in the in the

1078
00:59:56,880 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 2: in the cards for Nick. So this is this is

1079
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:01,400
Speaker 2: I don't know, bet against this team. I don't hate it.

1080
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 2: I don't money line underdog because a Raider. I mean

1081
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 2: they maybe the Ravens that this this is kind of

1082
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 2: what this Raider team does randomly win games. But I

1083
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 2: think the Broncos are legit. They if Nicks can play

1084
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 2: like this, I mean he played well against the Chiefs.

1085
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 2: They don't really have many weaknesses, Like everything is solid,

1086
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:20,880
Speaker 2: you know, so and he doesn't make mistakes.

1087
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:24,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, Raiders. Also, I've been a bit unlucky, I

1088
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 3: mean minus fifteen turnover margin already. They're also it's just

1089
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:32,080
Speaker 3: a good bilo of spot. I mean there are now

1090
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 3: losing streak home divisional dogs on six plus game losing

1091
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,560
Speaker 3: streaks forty eight, thirty two and five since nineteen ninety

1092
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:42,600
Speaker 3: sixty percent, but didn't make the Cup because the injuries.

1093
01:00:42,920 --> 01:00:46,479
Speaker 3: But yeah, but Bonnich's definitely playing better, but he's also

1094
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 3: faced some very favorable situations. It's not like their offense

1095
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:55,200
Speaker 3: did much against the Chiefs and Ravens.

1096
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 2: Fair my money line dog is going to be the

1097
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:03,919
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears. Hungry Bears are violent Bears against the eight

1098
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:05,960
Speaker 2: and two Minnesota Vikings.

1099
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 3: Third straight road game, third raight road game.

1100
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:10,520
Speaker 2: Well, I love the Vikings too. I think the Vikings

1101
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 2: is a very good put kind of the way you

1102
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:14,600
Speaker 2: feel about bone Nicks. I guess I feel about Sam

1103
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 2: Donald and we have a larger sample size. Like he

1104
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 2: makes mistakes, that's the difference. Damn Donald. I don't know

1105
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 2: how it didn't like just always remember this, but he's

1106
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 2: one of the few quarterbacks I've seen like play like

1107
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 2: start games this consistently, and his career interception rate is

1108
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 2: north of three percent, Like that is that's just not

1109
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 2: that's just rare these days, Like that's just great. Usually

1110
01:01:35,960 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 2: maybe a guy who like you know, makes a few

1111
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 2: starts over a few years, that will happen. But yeah,

1112
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 2: he made He's gonna make mistakes. I think the Vikings

1113
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:48,080
Speaker 2: have been getting lucky, uh as somebody that backed them

1114
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 2: last week, and uh, you know it was fortunate to

1115
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 2: kind of come out of there with a win. You know,

1116
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 2: it felt like the rest were just huddling up and saying,

1117
01:01:55,160 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 2: all right, uh you know, penalty on the Tennessee Titans

1118
01:01:58,640 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 2: for threatening to covers of spread. So I think this

1119
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 2: Viking team is it's kind it's kind of uh, you know,

1120
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 2: they're due for a loss. Just it's watching this week

1121
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 2: in particular. I don't know if you noticed it too,

1122
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 2: but I just felt like watching this week, it started

1123
01:02:16,120 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 2: to be like the oh the NFL, we know, whereas

1124
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 2: it's like, no matter how good you are or how

1125
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:25,680
Speaker 2: hot you're running, it's just tough to sustain it without

1126
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:28,080
Speaker 2: stupid things happening. I mean, we saw the Chiefs lose

1127
01:02:28,120 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 2: by two possessions. They didn't even cover the tea. Uh,

1128
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 2: like Mahomet was a pick on his first play. Now

1129
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 2: it's like just just weird things. I mean, look at

1130
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:39,160
Speaker 2: the Niners, like it's just as like they everything set

1131
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 2: up for them to win. It's just it's hard to

1132
01:02:42,280 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 2: the commanders obviously, Jake Elliots missing, every everything's going weird.

1133
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson is hitting throws. Uh, it's it's just yeah, yeah,

1134
01:02:56,120 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 2: I mean, one thing I will say is statistically speaking,

1135
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 2: turnovers are that are pretty much at their lowest point

1136
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 2: because interceptions are you know, teams are playing too high,

1137
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks are throwing shorter because there's not as much single

1138
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 2: high and thus turnovers are at an all time low,

1139
01:03:14,400 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 2: which so there's less variants. And then passing is at

1140
01:03:18,240 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 2: an all time high because you're throwing shorter, so there's

1141
01:03:21,240 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 2: actually more passing numbers are more stable than running numbers,

1142
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 2: and more you know, consequential. So it's kind of created

1143
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 2: an environment where there's actually becoming some more predictability. And

1144
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 2: that's why some of these like just shit teams or

1145
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,880
Speaker 2: shit quarterbacks have been not covering I think the way

1146
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,120
Speaker 2: we're used to because we're just not getting that variant

1147
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:41,440
Speaker 2: of how much are they gonna pass? Like everyone's kind

1148
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:44,000
Speaker 2: of passing at a similar ray. And it's just it's

1149
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 2: certain things. But I digress. I think the Bears could

1150
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:47,600
Speaker 2: have won, should have won. They should have won obviously.

1151
01:03:47,680 --> 01:03:51,320
Speaker 2: Last week Mattyberflu's found a their coaches staff still finding

1152
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:54,120
Speaker 2: ways to lose them games. Yeah, we're eve gonna take

1153
01:03:54,120 --> 01:03:56,040
Speaker 2: this forty six yard field, but we're not going to

1154
01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 2: try to get an inch closer. Good job. So, But

1155
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 2: like I said, the Vikings right for right for an upset,

1156
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:07,600
Speaker 2: they've been kind of just toying with, just flirting with

1157
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 2: disaster these pass I mean the Jags game and then

1158
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 2: the Titans game, and this is their third straight Roague game,

1159
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 2: divisional opponent who just got some confidence. You're gonna be

1160
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 2: playing in front of a home crowd. They're second straight

1161
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 2: at home. Uh yeah. I just think I just think

1162
01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 2: this is an upset spot that we see at this

1163
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 2: time of year because of and you have the track

1164
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 2: record of Darnold's making mistakes. Yeah, I like it.

1165
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:37,240
Speaker 3: I mean the Bears getting healthier in defense and along

1166
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 3: the offensive line. They made some real changes last week

1167
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:41,680
Speaker 3: that I thought were beneficially getting getting rid of the

1168
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 3: ball quick a lot quicker Derevin Caleb Williams make a

1169
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 3: lot easier shorter rows not yeah, and not having him

1170
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 3: hold onto the ball forever. I do worry about the coach.

1171
01:04:55,440 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 3: Three things here, the coaching mismatch, Flori Floor, the Williams,

1172
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 3: and this offense line against the Blitz, which it's been

1173
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 3: a disaster against the Blitz they don't, I mean like

1174
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:10,120
Speaker 3: really really bad, so hopefully like just getting it out

1175
01:05:10,160 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 3: quick while help in that department, and then where are

1176
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:16,680
Speaker 3: they at mentally? Like with Everflues, They've lost that that

1177
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 3: game against the Packers again, they lost the Hail Mary game, like,

1178
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:24,240
Speaker 3: but it is a divisional rival at home, so I'll

1179
01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 3: probably be on the Bears in some form professionals, well,

1180
01:05:26,160 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 3: so I like it so Bears and then the Raiders.

1181
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:36,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, gros, Yeah, it's coming to an end. You're welcome

1182
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:37,960
Speaker 2: the best of the rest.

1183
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 4: That's going to be a touchdown, but that may be

1184
01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 4: meaningful to some of you.

1185
01:05:43,200 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 2: You know what I mean. You got the Cardinals against

1186
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:51,280
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. The Cardinals are in Seattle. The Seahawks are

1187
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:54,560
Speaker 2: one point favorite. That line has been jumping between Cardinals

1188
01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 2: minus one and Seahawks minus one for much of the week.

1189
01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 2: We've track some more sharp money on the Seahawks. I

1190
01:06:02,720 --> 01:06:05,840
Speaker 2: like what the Cardinals are doing. I will say, just

1191
01:06:06,280 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 2: kind of leaning into the physical run game with the

1192
01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 2: multi the you know, the heavy multi tight end sets.

1193
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 2: I think it's really worked out well for Kyler Murray

1194
01:06:15,840 --> 01:06:17,960
Speaker 2: and kind of giving them an identity. You know, the

1195
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 2: Cardinals didn't really have that now. I think that this

1196
01:06:21,240 --> 01:06:24,680
Speaker 2: is kind of the most driven and you know, just

1197
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 2: the most identity I think they've had, and they see

1198
01:06:26,800 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 2: they just the most competent I've seen them sustain. But

1199
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:32,840
Speaker 2: the Seahawks team has been getting unlucky side. I know

1200
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:35,480
Speaker 2: you've been high on the Seahawks. Any any thoughts on

1201
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 2: this matchup.

1202
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:40,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think McDonald's getting that defense into shape and

1203
01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 3: they're now healthy. They had so many injuries. So and

1204
01:06:45,720 --> 01:06:48,920
Speaker 3: look the Cardinals, they have been lucky this year. I

1205
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:53,520
Speaker 3: mean they are playing better. Their defense still can't generate pressure, though,

1206
01:06:53,520 --> 01:06:56,120
Speaker 3: which is important. Against the Seahawks. We got the right

1207
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 3: tackle back their center. I was like, here we go again,

1208
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 3: the six pack. I had the Seahawks and there's center.

1209
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:04,760
Speaker 2: Issues are ridiculous. Oh yeah, that is wid their center.

1210
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 3: Their center.

1211
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're tires, but it doesn't matter. Every week, you know,

1212
01:07:09,440 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 2: trips on at least one snap, trips on the center

1213
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 2: league once and and there's at least one or two

1214
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 2: staff But you go flying over his head every week.

1215
01:07:15,440 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 2: It's it's another weird season.

1216
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 3: It's insane. But Cardinals got lucky against the Niners. They

1217
01:07:20,640 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 3: got lucky against the Chargers, they got lucky against the

1218
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,680
Speaker 3: Dolphins in like some sense, like they were down double

1219
01:07:25,680 --> 01:07:28,640
Speaker 3: digits in all these games, and then we see them

1220
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:30,560
Speaker 3: and it's like, Wow, they blew out the Bears and Jets.

1221
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 2: But the Bears and Jets, yeah them bet on them

1222
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:39,880
Speaker 2: pretty soon. I mean we've already got the Bears.

1223
01:07:40,240 --> 01:07:43,919
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know. The Seahawks are a dog.

1224
01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 3: I think I'm probably gonna have to take them. I

1225
01:07:45,160 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 3: think their defense is a sending and uh, you know,

1226
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 3: they got Metcalf back. They're not going to worry about

1227
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:52,320
Speaker 3: a bunch of pressure here, which is really the main

1228
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:56,600
Speaker 3: thing that crumbles their offense. But I've had trouble figuring

1229
01:07:56,640 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 3: out just how good this Cardinals team is. So nothing big.

1230
01:08:01,120 --> 01:08:03,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a sneaky underspot to the totals at forty

1231
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:07,080
Speaker 2: seven and a half. And Kyle Shanahan actually pretty much

1232
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:10,400
Speaker 2: came out and said, yeah, the reason we didn't throw

1233
01:08:10,480 --> 01:08:12,880
Speaker 2: for a lot of yards and Hurry didn't throw deep

1234
01:08:13,040 --> 01:08:17,559
Speaker 2: much is because the Seahawks, you know, protected that area

1235
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:19,840
Speaker 2: of the field, and they played two safeties back and

1236
01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:22,640
Speaker 2: you know, they know they have guys now their secondaries

1237
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:25,599
Speaker 2: their strength, and so they kind of you know, did

1238
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:30,160
Speaker 2: some things to emphasize that. So I think the Seahawks.

1239
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 2: I think it was a couple of years ago under

1240
01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:35,639
Speaker 2: with the Carol defense, that the Seahawks just suddenly became

1241
01:08:35,680 --> 01:08:39,240
Speaker 2: an under team. And I can see that. Yeah, I

1242
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:42,160
Speaker 2: can see that happening again because also if they can

1243
01:08:42,600 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 2: get their old line back like they can, they can

1244
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:48,599
Speaker 2: actually sustain some drives and not just have I mean,

1245
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 2: this team goes from like a promising drive to like

1246
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 2: third and thirty six fast. I've never seen anything like it.

1247
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:57,639
Speaker 2: So yeah, I can see them becoming an under team.

1248
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 2: And then the other matchup that we didn't talk about

1249
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:04,240
Speaker 2: is the Patriots at the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are

1250
01:09:04,240 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 2: favored by seven, but told it was forty six. I

1251
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:09,679
Speaker 2: actually make this closer to six. I think Drake may

1252
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:11,599
Speaker 2: is playing, he's.

1253
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:15,520
Speaker 3: Fighting while he's bringing the Patriots.

1254
01:09:15,600 --> 01:09:18,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, but he's also gonna have that breakout at

1255
01:09:18,320 --> 01:09:20,000
Speaker 2: some point where we're like, oh man, it's Drake, Like

1256
01:09:20,040 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, He's gonna just beat somebody

1257
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:23,640
Speaker 2: that he didn't expect. And so I thought about them

1258
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 2: as a dog, a moneyline dog. I still think is

1259
01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:30,000
Speaker 2: like the Dolphins usually do well out like the inferior

1260
01:09:30,040 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 2: teams and then they get embarrassed by like the good team. So, uh,

1261
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 2: not much interest in it. But if I had to,

1262
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:38,679
Speaker 2: if I had to take anything, it would be something

1263
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:41,200
Speaker 2: long shot related to May or the Patriots, like either

1264
01:09:41,280 --> 01:09:44,160
Speaker 2: just Patriots moneyline or maybe maybe I'll be on a

1265
01:09:44,200 --> 01:09:46,160
Speaker 2: May prop or something like that. Anything for you.

1266
01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:48,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, completely agree. This finding offense just isn't the same.

1267
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:51,559
Speaker 3: They've been efficient since Twa came back, but Hill's not healthy.

1268
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:54,679
Speaker 3: He doesn't have that explosivelopment. They're not throwing down field

1269
01:09:54,680 --> 01:09:55,080
Speaker 3: as much.

1270
01:09:56,320 --> 01:09:58,960
Speaker 2: Gnre though, Getjohnrew though Jonno might be X factor, they're

1271
01:09:58,960 --> 01:10:01,200
Speaker 2: starting to play him more. Yeah, he looks like a

1272
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:03,280
Speaker 2: minimum boys. Like there's you know, there's like a few

1273
01:10:03,280 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 2: guys every year that just it's November out to be December.

1274
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:09,000
Speaker 2: Everyone's banged up, and some guys just look so sprightly

1275
01:10:09,080 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 2: and fucking fresh. John Nerew's just out there just beasting dudes. Actually,

1276
01:10:13,360 --> 01:10:15,559
Speaker 2: I'm high. I'm high on them a sending, but uh,

1277
01:10:15,920 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 2: sorry to cut you off.

1278
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:20,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Patriots getting a little healthier across the board to

1279
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:25,160
Speaker 3: like far more back and he should be on close

1280
01:10:25,200 --> 01:10:29,599
Speaker 3: to full workload this week. But yeah, I mean, I'm

1281
01:10:29,680 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 3: I've loved what I've seen from May. It is high variant,

1282
01:10:32,040 --> 01:10:34,439
Speaker 3: so I don't mind the money line dog call, and

1283
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:37,080
Speaker 3: I would lean on lean Patriots way at seven and

1284
01:10:37,080 --> 01:10:37,880
Speaker 3: a half for sure.

1285
01:10:38,720 --> 01:10:42,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, then they're starting to get there. You know, the

1286
01:10:42,400 --> 01:10:45,200
Speaker 2: guys they want on offense in the lineup together. You know,

1287
01:10:45,479 --> 01:10:51,679
Speaker 2: they are getting Booty and Douglas. And then the offense

1288
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 2: isn't great.

1289
01:10:52,439 --> 01:10:53,800
Speaker 3: So like May's mobility is.

1290
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's and the tight ends up stepped up in

1291
01:10:56,320 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 2: the receiving game, it's still I still think the running

1292
01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 2: game could be better. But you know, Stevenson is he's solidly,

1293
01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:06,599
Speaker 2: he's not fumbling football. But yeah, weeen Patriots, all right,

1294
01:11:06,760 --> 01:11:11,280
Speaker 2: that is gonna do it for this Yeah, so does

1295
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:13,479
Speaker 2: everyone listening. We appreciate y'all.

1296
01:11:13,880 --> 01:11:17,120
Speaker 3: I just a quick announcement for everybody. As always, we

1297
01:11:17,160 --> 01:11:21,040
Speaker 3: will have all of our NFL and college pods out

1298
01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:25,799
Speaker 3: by Wednesday morning, oh Thanksgiving week, so I know everyone's traveling.

1299
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:28,800
Speaker 3: Everything will be out in time for the Thanksgiving slay

1300
01:11:28,880 --> 01:11:33,680
Speaker 3: College and NFL. We will absolutely grind away to make

1301
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:36,640
Speaker 3: sure we cover all that and get them recorded and

1302
01:11:36,640 --> 01:11:40,000
Speaker 3: out to you guys by Wednesday exactly.

1303
01:11:40,080 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, be on the lookout for that because I

1304
01:11:42,880 --> 01:11:46,040
Speaker 2: know people love to get some action on Thanksgiving or

1305
01:11:46,040 --> 01:11:50,879
Speaker 2: you're eating some good, good food, good people around, so yeah.

1306
01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:56,120
Speaker 3: We'll eat rush baby.

1307
01:11:56,240 --> 01:12:00,680
Speaker 2: That's gonna be family time. But yeah, let's get out

1308
01:12:00,680 --> 01:12:02,960
Speaker 2: of here stuck. You're on X at Stucky two, I'm

1309
01:12:02,960 --> 01:12:05,360
Speaker 2: at Chris Raybond, and we're at those same handles on

1310
01:12:05,360 --> 01:12:10,240
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app. So Thanksgiving, let's

1311
01:12:10,240 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 2: get this money.

1312
01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:11,760
Speaker 3: Let go.

1313
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1314
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:29,360
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1315
01:12:29,400 --> 01:12:32,479
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler