1
00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:04,680
Speaker 1: Please welcome the former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham

2
00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:08,320
Speaker 1: Clinton and Bloomberg editor in chief John Nicholswaite.

3
00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

4
00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:14,080
Speaker 3: Throughout this whole event, and indeed throughout my travels in

5
00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,239
Speaker 3: Asia over the past ten days, there has been a

6
00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:22,640
Speaker 3: consistent demand, i think, for an authoritative American voice and

7
00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,560
Speaker 3: for a sort of vision of how the world might look.

8
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,800
Speaker 3: I'm delighted to say that we are very lucky to

9
00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,760
Speaker 3: have former Sectory of State, former Senator, former many things,

10
00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:35,839
Speaker 3: Hillary Roger Clinton with us.

11
00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:37,400
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for being here.

12
00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 3: You are, in my experience, the first person to get

13
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,040
Speaker 3: a round of applause before you've even begun at this forum.

14
00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:47,479
Speaker 2: So you are You're already ahead.

15
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,519
Speaker 3: And I should point out you have nobly come at

16
00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 3: a fairly late time in New York, and our idea

17
00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:56,280
Speaker 3: was to do a tour door reason and begin in

18
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,720
Speaker 3: Asia and gradually head west towards America.

19
00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:01,800
Speaker 2: A sector of state.

20
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,039
Speaker 3: You talked about economic state craft and the importance of

21
00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:10,960
Speaker 3: binding together national security with economic policy, and the message

22
00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,920
Speaker 3: you get here repeatedly is that that message has gone.

23
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,840
Speaker 3: There was a time when America come here and talk

24
00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,479
Speaker 3: about trade policy. Now when countries around here talk about trade,

25
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,280
Speaker 3: they tend to get pushed away. Do you think that

26
00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,040
Speaker 3: idea of economic statecraft, particularly in Asia is missing nowadays?

27
00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:36,760
Speaker 1: Well, John, thank you for that question, because I think

28
00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,760
Speaker 1: it's a complicated one now. I think there's always room,

29
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:45,039
Speaker 1: in fact, there's a necessity for economic state craft, but

30
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,000
Speaker 1: the definition of what we mean by that and how

31
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:53,240
Speaker 1: it's practiced certainly has changed in the last ten to

32
00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,960
Speaker 1: fifteen years since I first started using it.

33
00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:01,240
Speaker 4: Because you're absolutely right, post COVID, post.

34
00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:08,240
Speaker 1: The challenges with supply chains, post one now two wars

35
00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:13,400
Speaker 1: that are challenging the global order. What do we mean

36
00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,119
Speaker 1: by economic state craft? Well, I think it does mean

37
00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 1: to continue, through diplomacy in any way appropriate to find

38
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:34,160
Speaker 1: economic connections, networks, agreements that will enable countries to cooperate peacefully,

39
00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,960
Speaker 1: to enhance their own economic positions, to find a way

40
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,520
Speaker 1: to satisfy the needs of their own citizens, and to

41
00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:50,320
Speaker 1: add to the global economic output. And it is very

42
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:54,680
Speaker 1: different today than it was. And I think whether we're

43
00:02:54,720 --> 00:03:00,320
Speaker 1: talking about how we create economic state craft around moving

44
00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,960
Speaker 1: toward a clean energy system, or we look for ways

45
00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:12,960
Speaker 1: to create more connectivity, both through actual trade and through

46
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,480
Speaker 1: the kind of cooperation that countries need to engage in.

47
00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:22,080
Speaker 1: The definition is changing, but the necessity for us to

48
00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,959
Speaker 1: practice economic state craft remains.

49
00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:27,240
Speaker 2: I just push you on that a bit.

50
00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 3: If you visit any country here, Indonesia, even Singapore or Malaysia,

51
00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,200
Speaker 3: all these places, they will all say the same thing.

52
00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 3: What they want with America is a trade deal. When

53
00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,360
Speaker 3: they deal with China, they get a whole menu of

54
00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 3: economic possibilities. With America, they really want some kind of

55
00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:47,480
Speaker 3: formal trade alliance.

56
00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 2: But that seems to have gone. Is you saddened by that? Well?

57
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:52,560
Speaker 4: I am.

58
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,840
Speaker 1: I do think that it would be beneficial to the

59
00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,840
Speaker 1: United States as well as to the countries you named

60
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:06,720
Speaker 1: many others, if we could define trade agreements for the

61
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,760
Speaker 1: age in which we find ourselves. That has to take

62
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,520
Speaker 1: into account, particularly in the United States, some of the

63
00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:21,599
Speaker 1: concerns that citizens and businesses, workers unions all have about

64
00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,440
Speaker 1: whether trade agreements will really benefit them. We have to

65
00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,880
Speaker 1: take into account with many other countries, what really is

66
00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,960
Speaker 1: the openness on the other side of the agreement. How

67
00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:39,360
Speaker 1: willing will countries be to open their markets to American businesses.

68
00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:43,159
Speaker 1: So I think we need a new era of realistic

69
00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,240
Speaker 1: trade agreements that take into account where we are in

70
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,040
Speaker 1: the world today, that understand we have new stresses and pressures,

71
00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:54,320
Speaker 1: and that can make a case, particularly in you know,

72
00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:59,040
Speaker 1: complicated societies like Indonesia, like the United States, that any

73
00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:03,480
Speaker 1: agreement is to benefit not just a very few large

74
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,359
Speaker 1: businesses primarily multinational ones, but we'll get into medium sized

75
00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:12,680
Speaker 1: and small businesses, will benefit consumers and workers. We ought

76
00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,920
Speaker 1: to be able to make that case, but historically those

77
00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,360
Speaker 1: have not been high priorities for many trade agreements. And

78
00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:23,400
Speaker 1: one of the things that happened with the TPP is

79
00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:28,680
Speaker 1: that it did not adequately explain what the benefits would

80
00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:33,839
Speaker 1: be beyond a very relatively small set of sectors and

81
00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 1: businesses within those sectors. So it's up to leaders, both

82
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,479
Speaker 1: government and business leaders to make a better case, and

83
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,320
Speaker 1: I think we could do that, but it means adding

84
00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 1: that to the big agenda that many people are already facing.

85
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,800
Speaker 1: And so we have to make a special effort to

86
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 1: try to begin once again to talk about trade agreements,

87
00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:56,960
Speaker 1: but with an eye from the beginning to make the

88
00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,680
Speaker 1: case for those trade agreements, not negotiate behind closed doors,

89
00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,520
Speaker 1: then come out and then have people express their disappointments

90
00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:05,200
Speaker 1: and opposition.

91
00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:08,280
Speaker 2: You talked about realism.

92
00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,920
Speaker 3: We now have the meeting between President g and Joe

93
00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,800
Speaker 3: Biden next week in San Francisco. There was a nice

94
00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,440
Speaker 3: line from the Singaporean for a minister here where he said, yes,

95
00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:20,640
Speaker 3: the weather might get a bit better, we might have

96
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,040
Speaker 3: a deal on fentanyl, but the climate generally is getting

97
00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,159
Speaker 3: worse between the US and China. Again, I think people

98
00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,720
Speaker 3: would say it was better when you were around. Is

99
00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:34,040
Speaker 3: there a is there any sign of things getting better

100
00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:35,359
Speaker 3: or are they just going to get worse for a

101
00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,720
Speaker 3: while and then maybe stabilize.

102
00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,280
Speaker 1: Well, I'm hoping that more comes out of the meeting.

103
00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:47,000
Speaker 1: It certainly is a confidence building opportunity. There hasn't been

104
00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:52,560
Speaker 1: as much interaction until relatively recently between the Chinese and

105
00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:57,400
Speaker 1: the United States governments. There has been a real chill

106
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 1: coming from China about out businesses, American businesses, other businesses

107
00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:08,160
Speaker 1: inside China. And then there are of course political pressures

108
00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:13,640
Speaker 1: against China within our own political system. So this meeting

109
00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,920
Speaker 1: is a terrific opportunity to try to reset the table,

110
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 1: so to speak, to try to create some opening, but

111
00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 1: it has to be followed up on with a lot

112
00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,640
Speaker 1: more interactions. I was very pleased that Secretaries Yellen and

113
00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,840
Speaker 1: Raymondo and others have been going to China in recent weeks.

114
00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,520
Speaker 1: Nothing substitutes for the effort being made to have those

115
00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:41,680
Speaker 1: kinds of, you know, meetings about strategic and economic concerns.

116
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,520
Speaker 1: I think a lot of what happens in the future

117
00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:50,880
Speaker 1: really depends upon what Chijin Ping's goals are.

118
00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:51,680
Speaker 2: You know.

119
00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:55,119
Speaker 1: Part of the reason it was you know, somewhat more

120
00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 1: positive when I was there and we had a very

121
00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:05,280
Speaker 1: regular set of meetings is because Hu Jintao was a

122
00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:09,680
Speaker 1: Chinese leader who decided he would not stay for life.

123
00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:14,880
Speaker 1: He would fulfill his term, he would follow the guidance

124
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,240
Speaker 1: of the Chinese Communist Party. There would be a transition

125
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,320
Speaker 1: a new group of leaders, you know, some holdovers, but

126
00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 1: you know, other new phases would be in power, and

127
00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,560
Speaker 1: so there could be a constant renewing of both the

128
00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:36,400
Speaker 1: Chinese government and through that, the American relationship. Once Hijinping

129
00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:41,080
Speaker 1: decided to stay in office for life, that creates a

130
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,560
Speaker 1: lot of you know, challenges within their own system, and

131
00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,439
Speaker 1: I think we're seeing some of that with the removal

132
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,760
Speaker 1: of top officials, some of the economic problems in the

133
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,600
Speaker 1: Chinese economy. But it also creates a kind of chilling

134
00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,560
Speaker 1: effect in terms of relations. I mean, how do you

135
00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,800
Speaker 1: deal with somebody who's not going to be held accountable,

136
00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,720
Speaker 1: you know, I mean their system of accountability was certainly

137
00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,480
Speaker 1: different from ours, but it existed and now it doesn't.

138
00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,760
Speaker 1: And so part of what I hope will come out

139
00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:17,679
Speaker 1: of this meeting is an attitude by President she that

140
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,120
Speaker 1: you know, he wants to get back to some kind

141
00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:24,640
Speaker 1: of regular order, that he sees it in China's interest

142
00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:30,920
Speaker 1: to really dig in with the President Biden, develop a

143
00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:37,720
Speaker 1: platform for discussions, for problem solving, look for ways to

144
00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,680
Speaker 1: cooperate on whether it's you know, climate change or other

145
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,520
Speaker 1: matters that may be of mutual interest to us. Really

146
00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,360
Speaker 1: sending that signal, I think he will find a receptive

147
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,439
Speaker 1: partner with President Biden if that's available.

148
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,600
Speaker 2: That's a very interesting perspective.

149
00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,160
Speaker 3: I'm going to push you, rush you slightly towards the

150
00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 3: Middle East, which I've seen you've been talking about this week,

151
00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,160
Speaker 3: Israel and h I think you are in favor of

152
00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 3: a humanitarian pause or pauses, but you're against the cease fire,

153
00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,480
Speaker 3: which many people in this region asking for. You know,

154
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:14,960
Speaker 3: the numbers of dead arising rapidly, ten thousand according to

155
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:18,520
Speaker 3: Hamas Italy. But you still got like eighty nine dead

156
00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,880
Speaker 3: at the UN which is a gigantic number for United Nations,

157
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,120
Speaker 3: the Red Crescent and so on. Could you perhaps explain

158
00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,040
Speaker 3: why you don't want.

159
00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:28,559
Speaker 2: To cease fi well.

160
00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:33,240
Speaker 1: I think there is a difference between a ceasefire which

161
00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:40,600
Speaker 1: would in effect freeze the situation in Hamas's favor. I

162
00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:44,160
Speaker 1: negotiated a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in November of

163
00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:48,600
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, and at that point both parties did not

164
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:53,959
Speaker 1: want to go any further. The breaching of a pre

165
00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,679
Speaker 1: existing ceasefire by Hamas with rockets being sent into Israel

166
00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,760
Speaker 1: had not caused a lot of damage. There had not

167
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,400
Speaker 1: been the horrific massacre that we saw on October seventh,

168
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,959
Speaker 1: and there also had not been the development of the

169
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:14,280
Speaker 1: infrastructure of terror that Hamas has built in Gaza. I

170
00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:18,200
Speaker 1: don't know any nation represented at the New Economy Forum

171
00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,160
Speaker 1: faced with the kind of assault that Israel was faced

172
00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:27,320
Speaker 1: with by Hamas that would not be number one defending

173
00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:32,040
Speaker 1: itself and number two trying to prevent it from happening again,

174
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,880
Speaker 1: because with every other cease fire it did happen again

175
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,239
Speaker 1: until Finally we got to the breach of a ceasefire

176
00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:43,160
Speaker 1: which was in existence on October seventh with the terrible

177
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:47,880
Speaker 1: attack by Hamas. So a ceasefire if it were possible,

178
00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,400
Speaker 1: which frankly, I don't think is possible. I don't think

179
00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:55,320
Speaker 1: you know, Israel is interested in a ceasefire at this point,

180
00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,600
Speaker 1: but they are perhaps willing to have what we do

181
00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,640
Speaker 1: call humanitarian pause is for the purpose of both getting

182
00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:06,559
Speaker 1: aid in to try to assist the civilians in Gaza,

183
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,720
Speaker 1: but also getting the more than two hundred and forty

184
00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,000
Speaker 1: hostages out. You know, these hostages are not just Israeli.

185
00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,760
Speaker 1: One of the biggest groups of hostages are workers from

186
00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 1: Thailand who are working on farms in Israel. So there

187
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,840
Speaker 1: is a global dimension to the hostages that a pause

188
00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:27,280
Speaker 1: could perhaps inspire some willingness on the part of Hamas

189
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,680
Speaker 1: to let the hostages go. But a ceasefire that would

190
00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:35,040
Speaker 1: freeze the situation at this point is not something that

191
00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:41,360
Speaker 1: is going to, you know, really undermine Hamas's capacity, especially

192
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,280
Speaker 1: with two hundred miles of tunnels that they have constructed

193
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:48,040
Speaker 1: over the last decade, to launch yet another attack on Israel,

194
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:49,760
Speaker 1: and that would be intolerable and I think it would

195
00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:54,240
Speaker 1: be intolerable for you know, any nation represented at the forum.

196
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,200
Speaker 3: This seemed to be kind of two big theories going

197
00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 3: on about this war. One is that this is the

198
00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:00,640
Speaker 3: end of.

199
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:01,320
Speaker 2: The peace process.

200
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,760
Speaker 3: The other, which you've championed, the other is that this

201
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,280
Speaker 3: is if nothing else, this will prompt finally some.

202
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,440
Speaker 2: Move towards the two state solution. Which side of that

203
00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:12,320
Speaker 2: do you fit on?

204
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,840
Speaker 1: Well, I actually try to fit on both, and I'll

205
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 1: tell you John, I think it's important to have some aspiration,

206
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 1: some goal that we can look toward. Many of us,

207
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,720
Speaker 1: my husband particularly, worked very hard on trying to get

208
00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:31,439
Speaker 1: a two state solution, and it, frankly, in retrospect, is

209
00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 1: heartbreaking that Yasser Arafat walked away from the deal that

210
00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,680
Speaker 1: Bill had broker between Israel and the Palestinian authority back

211
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,600
Speaker 1: in two thousand. There could have been a Palestinian state

212
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,520
Speaker 1: up to ninety seven percent of the land from the

213
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,679
Speaker 1: nineteen forty eight division that would have been in existence

214
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 1: for twenty three years now. So I think you have

215
00:13:55,600 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 1: to create the environment in which there is a chance

216
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,520
Speaker 1: to revitalize the peace process and a potential for a

217
00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:09,120
Speaker 1: two state solution. Hamas is not interested in a two

218
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 1: state solution. They are dedicated to the destruction of Israel.

219
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 1: That is in their charter. If you've been watching lots

220
00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,480
Speaker 1: of different outlets over the last month, that is what

221
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,000
Speaker 1: the leaders of Hamas say. You know, they want to

222
00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 1: destroy Israel.

223
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,400
Speaker 4: So Hamas is not.

224
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,800
Speaker 1: A partner for any kind of peace or two state solution,

225
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:32,400
Speaker 1: but the Palestinian authority might one time again be. New

226
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,640
Speaker 1: leadership in Gaza might again be So we have to

227
00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,840
Speaker 1: get to a point where that's possible very quickly.

228
00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 3: Do you think that Benuine nasignone who is a partner

229
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 3: for a two state solution.

230
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 1: I don't think there is any evidence of that. I

231
00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,880
Speaker 1: think the Israeli people will have to decide about his leadership.

232
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: I think there will be investigations about what led up

233
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,880
Speaker 1: to and what happened on October the seventh. But I

234
00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,200
Speaker 1: think there needs to be new leadership of the Israelis

235
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 1: and the Palestinians in order to have any chance at

236
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:09,160
Speaker 1: some kind of peace deal, especially a two state solution.

237
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 3: Can I jump a little bit more optimistically towards Europe.

238
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 3: You've had a series of recent results in Europe. You've

239
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,080
Speaker 3: had in Greece, in Poland, You've had people I suspect

240
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,440
Speaker 3: you would support winning in Britain you're heading towards election

241
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,600
Speaker 3: the place which went through Brexit, Boris and this trust.

242
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,400
Speaker 3: We now have two rather boring men, but they are

243
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,880
Speaker 3: nevertheless within the general field of what people would regard

244
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 3: as compatible, competitive, normal politics. Do you think there is

245
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 3: a sign of politics changing at all?

246
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 4: I certainly hope.

247
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 1: So I want to make boring popular again, you know,

248
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,840
Speaker 1: I want to get back to people who get up

249
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,520
Speaker 1: every day and do the job. Don't think that they

250
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 1: are entertainers and performers who need to be outrageous and

251
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 1: get a lot of attention on social media. So I

252
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,880
Speaker 1: you know, I'm for the I'm.

253
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 4: For the boring.

254
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,360
Speaker 1: You know, public servants and government leaders right.

255
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:14,520
Speaker 3: Now bring back boring on that subject. In your own country,

256
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 3: that there is been something of a split from the

257
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 3: point of the Democrats. You have had the big success

258
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 3: in terms of some of the state elections this week,

259
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,720
Speaker 3: with abortion particularly seeming to help Democratic side, but you've

260
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,440
Speaker 3: got some pretty bad polls from the battleground states. I

261
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 3: think you've come out already saying that Joe Biden is

262
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,080
Speaker 3: still the answer. But do you do you want to

263
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 3: explain that to people here.

264
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 1: Well, first of all, I'm not a fan of polling

265
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 1: a year out from an election. I think, to go

266
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 1: back to what we were just talking about, you know,

267
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 1: there's a tendency among voters, and particularly I would say,

268
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 1: among Democratic voters in the United States, to always be

269
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 1: looking for, you know, the next cool thing, who's the

270
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 1: you know, the really exciting candidate that we're going to have,

271
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 1: And so there's a lot of churn about what we

272
00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 1: really are going to look for and end up with.

273
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 1: But I believe Joe Biden will be the nominee. I

274
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 1: believe he will be re elected. I believe that both

275
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 1: on the merits of his record, which is quite remarkable

276
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 1: given the difficult political environment in our country, but also

277
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 1: because of the alternative. It still looks likely that Donald

278
00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,400
Speaker 1: Trump will be the Republican nominee. I know that's hard

279
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,639
Speaker 1: for people to believe with everything going on, but that

280
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 1: seems to be the likely outcome, and so there very

281
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,199
Speaker 1: well could be a rematch. And I think in that

282
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 1: kind of a rematch, as we've seen in the elections

283
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:46,200
Speaker 1: just yesterday, you know, people are kind of moving away

284
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 1: from the drama from you know, all of the chaos.

285
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:53,119
Speaker 1: They want, you know, to just have regular order again.

286
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:58,199
Speaker 1: And they voted yesterday for people who are standing up

287
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:02,239
Speaker 1: for issues that are popular, like the right to have

288
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 1: women make their own reproductive decisions, for example. But you

289
00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 1: had a governor in Kentucky, a deeply red state, a

290
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:14,639
Speaker 1: democratic governor get re elected. He made abortion a central issue.

291
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 1: He made red flag laws so that people who are

292
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 1: dangerous don't get guns, which seems like a very sensible position.

293
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 1: He made those really central to his campaign, and he

294
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 1: won a very big victory. So I think that Joe

295
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,680
Speaker 1: Biden will be the nominee. I think Trump right now

296
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 1: will be the nominee, and I think Biden will be

297
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 1: re elected.

298
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 2: You have vote Democrats and dare to be dull.

299
00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 4: That's right, that's right.

300
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 1: It's the new cool thing, John, you know, just get

301
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 1: out there and show your dullness, but get the job done.

302
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 4: Be productive and dull.

303
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 3: One area just I lost you once there is one

304
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 3: then that are slightly more amusing one. But on the

305
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 3: serious side, you look at things like Ukraine at the moment,

306
00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 3: there is definitely a strategy among the maas enemies you

307
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 3: could see putin waiting perhaps for Trump trying to dig

308
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 3: in and wait. But also I think also counting on Congress,

309
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,160
Speaker 3: where you feel that Congress feels over extended. It's got

310
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 3: the border, it's got Spotenningham in Israel. Do you worry

311
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 3: about America feeling as if it's over extended and unable

312
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 3: to carry out the kind of global policies that you

313
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:23,159
Speaker 3: believed in.

314
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,400
Speaker 1: Well up until now, the Biden administration has done quite

315
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 1: a remarkable job. I mean, they put together a coalition

316
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 1: to support Ukraine, which I think many people would have

317
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:37,880
Speaker 1: thought unlikely when Biden took office. So I do think

318
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: the legislative agenda that Biden got passed is also another

319
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 1: very strong indicator of being able to get things done.

320
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,199
Speaker 1: I do agree with you that it is going to

321
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 1: be challenging in the Congress to get more funding for Ukraine,

322
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: to provide the funding Israel needs to provide the kind

323
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 1: of support that is required to keep our alliances strong

324
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:03,959
Speaker 1: around the world.

325
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:05,679
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, I think the

326
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 4: president will get that.

327
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 1: And I also think there's an opportunity for the President

328
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 1: because the Republicans in the Senate have said, you know,

329
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 1: we're on board with all of this, but we want

330
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,360
Speaker 1: to make some changes at the border. I think that,

331
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 1: you know, the Democrats should negotiate to see what kinds

332
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: of changes would be palatable for the Democrats in order

333
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 1: to secure the border, in order to make it clear

334
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 1: that you know, Democrats want a secure border and a

335
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:35,919
Speaker 1: humane system for people who are trying to enter the

336
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 1: United States, but we want it to be orderly. So

337
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be a lot of tough negotiation.

338
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 4: At the end. I think the president will get what

339
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 4: he needs.

340
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 3: There's one quick thing on Ukraine, because you mentioned it.

341
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,719
Speaker 3: Do you think there is any hope of persuading China

342
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 3: to come in and help on that? So far, China

343
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 3: has had an effect on that Putin in terms of

344
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 3: saying don't use nuclear weapons or saying that are off

345
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 3: the ground. Is there any room of persuading them to

346
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 3: kind of push him into something closer to a ceasepy

347
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 3: there as well.

348
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 4: I don't know the answer to that, John.

349
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,919
Speaker 1: I think China has played an important role in trying

350
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: to send a message to Putin not to over you know, stretch,

351
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to tactical nuclear weapons. But I

352
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 1: think China's also been surprised at how difficult it has

353
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 1: been for the Russian military to achieve their military objectives.

354
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 1: I think that's caused China to do some serious evaluation

355
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 1: internally about their own military.

356
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 4: I think that's part.

357
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 1: Of what we may be seeing with some of the

358
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,199
Speaker 1: changes in military leadership, with the assessment that you know,

359
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: everybody thought the Russian military was very effective it turned

360
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 1: out not to be.

361
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 4: What are the lessons we can learn?

362
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 1: I think the more important, you know, decision right now

363
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: is for the United States, Europe and and other like

364
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: minded countries to continue supporting Ukraine, support them with the

365
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 1: military equipment they need in order to you know, hold

366
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 1: the line and push back as much as they can.

367
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 1: You know, the more equipment that we can provide Ukraine,

368
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 1: the more they can defend themselves and try to take

369
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: back the territory that has been seized since twenty twenty two.

370
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: That should be our objective. That's what we should be

371
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 1: focused on.

372
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 4: But you said.

373
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: Something earlier, which I think is absolutely right. I mean,

374
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: I think Putin is waiting to see whether Trump can

375
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,959
Speaker 1: come back. I think you know the fact that Trump

376
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: said when he was president before that he would pull

377
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: the United States out of NATO is like the fulfillment

378
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: of Putin's dreams. And so if he can figure out

379
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 1: how to hold this in a frozen conflict position and

380
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: not lose any more ground to the Ukrainians and wait

381
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 1: to see whether there's some opportunity in fact, probably probably

382
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,640
Speaker 1: try to help Trump in the election as he has before,

383
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: then I think, you know, there may be you know,

384
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: a kind of stalemate for a while, and the West cannot.

385
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 4: Be discouraged by that. We have to.

386
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 1: Keep you know, supporting the Ukrainians to push as far

387
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 1: as they can push.

388
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 3: On one very last thing on the I mentioned the Republicans.

389
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 3: On the Republican side, you will have noticed how much

390
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: traction Nicky Hayley has been getting as a woman who

391
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 3: was the American ambassador the UN. Do you think that

392
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 3: if Biden was to stumble, that might be room for

393
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 3: another woman with slightly more foreign policy experience.

394
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: Well, I don't know the answer to that, but I

395
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:46,479
Speaker 1: hope Biden doesn't stumble. I hope that he goes all

396
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: the way to you know, the finish line, because I

397
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 1: think he's earned it, he deserves it, and you know, honestly,

398
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 1: the only real argument or complaint is that he's old

399
00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: and And you know what, I think everybody who's his

400
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: age would be very happy if they were as productive

401
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 1: as he is and has gotten as much done as

402
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 1: he has and traveled the schedule he's traveled, So you know,

403
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to continue to support him, and I think

404
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: he's our best candidate for twenty twenty four.

405
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 3: That was an imaccurate answer on which to finish. We

406
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 3: are very grateful for you staying up and doing Thanks.

407
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 3: Thank you very much, Thank you, Don