WEBVTT - Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer Talks Iran War, Strait of Hormuz 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:07.800 --> 0:00:10.600 Watching the markets and as we see Iranian missiles targeting 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:13.520 the United Arab Emirates, there's some concerns about that Tehran 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:15.760 warning that it was tightening its grip on the straight 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:16.360 of horror moves. 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:18.560 I mean, Joe, this is once again we see this 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:20.360 back and forth and it feels like there's no progress 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:20.920 towards an end. 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:24.080 It feels pretty hairy. And this comes with this Operation Freedom, 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:26.160 I guess it's being called the President announced over the weekend, 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:29.240 where we would in fact not necessarily start escorting vessels 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:31.400 through the Strait, but stand by to help them. Is 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:33.960 a question about whether anybody's going to take that opportunity, 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:36.240 and it's where we start our conversation with Ian Bremer, 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:38.640 the force behind the Eurasia Group, is with us live 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:40.960 and in person here at the Milken Conference. It's great 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:43.320 to see you, and I hope that this set of 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:45.480 meetings is going well for you. We would just love 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:48.559 to talk about this very delicate moment that we are 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.640 in and whether the President has the ability to open 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:53.880 this corridor in the Strait, and even if he does, 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:56.080 could we move enough ships to make a difference. 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:59.600 As of right now, he does not, and that is 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:01.560 a big part of the problem. This is by far 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:05.840 the biggest challenge we've seen since the ceasefire was announced 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:09.280 by President Trump a couple of weeks ago. We now 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:12.319 have ships that are being fired on in the straight 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:15.840 one doing a quick U turn right after that. 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:18.160 No one injured to the best of our knowledge. 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.520 And then we have what looks to be some interceptions, 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:25.160 the UAE Ministry of Defense saying that they had intercepted 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:30.200 some shots at them from Iran in the last. 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:30.960 Couple of hours. 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:35.360 That is clearly an escalation, a direct response by the 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:40.120 Iranian government from Trump's announcement that he was going to 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:44.199 have a humanitarian freedom operation. 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:45.960 To get some of these ships through. 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:50.360 The Iranian perspective is we are prepared to talk about 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:56.080 ending the blockade if you're going to let our ships through. 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:58.400 Otherwise it's not happening. 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:01.920 And the Iranians have the ability and the willingness to 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.080 prevent Trump from making these moves. This is a He's 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:07.760 going to be pretty antagonized by this. There's no question 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:09.200 in my mind, Ian who's. 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:10.880 Got the cards, Who's got the winning hand right now? 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.040 Or is there a winning hand because it doesn't seem 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:13.520 like there's. 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.000 Really any progress. 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.640 I mean, Iran understands its power by controlling the strait 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:20.639 of horror moves, and if it lets that go, then. 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:24.880 What I wouldn't want to be the Iranian regime right now, 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:26.840 very clearly of one hundred and fifty of their leaders 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.080 have been killed, so to say they've got the winning 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:34.160 hand in that environment. They're desperate, but they're also their 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:35.400 regime is not going to change. 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:36.800 More of them can be killed. 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.320 A lot more Iranians have been killed and displaced by 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:40.760 the way than anyone else in this war. 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:42.800 Lebanon's the only other country that's even close. 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:46.280 So it's not like the Americans are facing some existential threat. 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.720 But this was a war the Americans chose to fight 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:53.920 that President Trump chose to fight with Israel, and it 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:58.680 turns out that Iran's capacity to cause damage and pain 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:00.600 to the Americans is massive. 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:01.919 Where one place. 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:05.200 The Iranians have an advantage is an information advantage. They 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:07.799 know what the polls are in the United States, they 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:11.520 know what people inside the Trump administration are saying, and 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.320 that they're not completely aligned on this. They know the 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:16.760 Republicans don't like the war the US has none of 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.519 that transparency on what is being said at the top 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.680 of the IRGC inside Iran, and that is a disadvantage 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:23.560 for the United States. 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:24.960 Well where's our intelligence on that? 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.080 Well, there is intelligence, but again, you've killed most of 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.400 the people you were talking to, right, And the Foreign 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.359 Minister who is engaged and still engaged every day by 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:36.600 text with Steven Whitcoff, they're still talking and the sides 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:39.240 aren't all that far apart on the nuclear issue. But 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.840 he's not the guy calling the shots inside Tehran. The 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:46.080 people calling the shots are not on television, they're not 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:47.600 engaged publicly because. 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:48.280 They don't want to get killed. 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:51.280 So, I mean, it is just a lot harder to 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.200 get intelligence on what the Iranians are doing and what 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:56.839 the Iranians are thinking. And I'll tell you as many 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.720 times as I've seen President Trump say they better watch 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:03.920 out no more, mister nice guy, when when the supreme 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:07.280 leaders like kid and father and mother have already been 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.520 assassinated in this war, no more, mister nice guy doesn't 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:14.400 hold a lot of credibility. Right, most Iranians that we've 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:16.200 spoken to in Tehran. 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:17.839 That's nice. What's bad exactly? 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:21.080 They think that the war is going to restart imminentally, 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:21.880 they believe. 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:23.400 There was a moment a couple of weeks ago, and 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:25.720 you remember this, the markets were lit up with optimism 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:28.440 because there was a thought that if we're arguing about 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:33.240 duration on stopping enrichment, then we've obviously made progress that 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.240 we can somehow get to a yes, that the fact 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.200 that we were just talking about is it five years, 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:40.040 is it twenty years? Is it indefinite? That optimism seems 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:42.520 to have gone away. Was it ever real to begin with? 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:43.559 It was real. 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:46.880 It was real in the sense that there was a 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:52.039 there was serious engagement on what not only the duration 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:55.200 of enrichment being stopped would be, but also. 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.160 The removal of the uranium stock part. 0:04:58.000 --> 0:04:59.720 At the point the President said there was a deal 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:00.520 to him hand it over. 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.640 Yeah, yeah, but what And to be fair, also, the 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.599 Americans had given up on the ballistic missiles, said that 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:08.720 was a regional issue. So that's if you're not going 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:10.720 to have to resolve it, it makes it easier not 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:14.120 even talking about Iranian support for proxies. So there you've 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.400 got a deal. But in order to get to that deal, 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:19.000 you have to open the straight and the Iranians if 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:22.240 they're not going to tell anymore, they have to get something. 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:24.720 So what are they getting? How are you paying them off? 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:28.400 And there we did not see a deal. So ultimately, 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:32.000 the Iranians have very little reason to open. 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:33.200 The strait, which is their one point. 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:36.880 There's singular point of global leverage, not just versus the US. 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:39.920 Unless they're going to see something that is better for 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.159 them than the position they're presently in. 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:43.880 They don't have that, all right, So we've been going 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:45.520 back and forth. Obviously the White. 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:47.160 House thought this was going to be just like Venezuela. 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.680 It obviously is not. So do you see an endgame 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:54.080 and outcome anytime soon? Because at this point markets, when 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:56.520 you look at oil prices and other factors, they are 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.159 pricing this out through the end of the year. They've 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:00.520 already decided this is nothing that's going to and soon. 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.479 It hasn't ended soon already. So do you see Ian 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:04.960 at ultimately some kind. 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:05.480 Of endgame here? 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:09.000 The thing that worries me, the reason I don't have 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:13.320 an immediate yes for you, is that Number one, Trump 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:17.160 seems to believe that he's already gonna lose mid terms. 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:21.080 He seems he's calverty counseling patients. He's saying, I'm surprised 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:23.279 that oil prices are below one hundred, you know, I 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:25.520 think that they could be a lot higher. So he's 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.680 willing to go longer and take that pain. Secondly, the 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:34.960 Iranians themselves do seem like they are prepared to continue 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.360 to hunker down, and they're capable of continuing to hunker down. 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:41.159 So it is hard for me, even if you were 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:44.400 to get to a deal, implementing that deal. So with 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:48.120 the International Arms inspect the Atomic Inspectors, no one's engaged 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:48.640 with them so far. 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:49.799 You'd need them on the ground. 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.320 That would take time staging that With the money that 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:55.760 the Iranians would have to get, that's a matter at 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.440 best of another month or two after a deal is 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:01.400 in place. Even if you came to yes, and we're 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:03.760 not close to yes right now, it would still not 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:05.680 be Oh, everything's going through. 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:06.080 The straight I think it was. 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:07.920 Darren Was last week said it would be at least 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:10.480 two months from the strait being opened, also that it 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.960 would take that long for the energy market to rationalize 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:13.840 itself and get the flow. 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.320 Longer, if you look at Qatar, we're talking like three 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:17.840 to five years. 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:21.880 So go back to the first Pentagon briefing, Pete hag 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:24.560 Seth dan Kine, it's the new duo. It's turned into 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:28.200 a road show. The first questions were was there a 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.160 plan for the straight and he mocked the reporters for 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:33.440 asking that. He said, of course we had a plan, 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:34.400 what was it. 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:38.960 I think that when you believe that this is going 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.800 to go over because you're killing the leadership and so 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:45.840 of course they see that overwhelming US military capacity. 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:46.400 That they're going to then want a deal. 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:47.360 Big assumption you don't. 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:48.920 It's a big assumption you don't need that plan. 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.640 The biggest problem that we have right now as Americans 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:55.040 is that President Trump, in my view, is not getting 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.600 an accurate picture of what's happening on the ground. And 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.240 the reason for that is because people around him, not 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:03.320 just his domestic advisors but international leaders too, when they 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:06.600 actually talk with him, they sugarcoat it. When they actually 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:09.360 talk to him, they're like, sir, you're doing so well, 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:11.520 and you know, there's so much of this is going well, 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.600 and maybe this is one little thing that if you 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:15.520 can just do a little bit different, And they do 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.880 that in part because he won't tolerate criticism but also 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:19.880 because they want to continue to have access and they 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:23.040 know that if they really say, in an unvo way, 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:25.840 let's be real, they want access because other people around 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:27.480 them are competing to be the one in front. So 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.240 if they're the one that's giving Trump the messages in 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:31.200 life the ear they're not going to be there. No 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:33.120 one would run a company that way, right, I mean, 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:35.320 you would downgrade that company if you are in Bloomberg. 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:38.160 That's the way the United States government is presently being 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:41.560 run in a war environment, and I just think that's horrible. 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:43.640 I think about your concept your book g Zero. 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:46.800 Right, this world, everybody is kind of out for their 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:48.800 own oil, and we see it when it comes to 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:51.760 raw materials, rare earths, commodities. 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:53.480 All of a sudden in the markets, we're. 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.480 Not talking as much about high tech, We're talking about 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.160 raw materials, gold, steel. 0:08:58.520 --> 0:08:59.760 I mean, the world has changed. 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:02.880 Does that make that even difficult, even more difficult to 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:03.920 get some kind of resolution? 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:06.240 And is this just our worldy? And going forward? 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:08.800 It makes it more difficult in the region because the 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:12.360 most consequential geopolitical impact that has come from this war 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:14.960 is that the Amoradis and the Saudis are in much 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:17.720 more open hostility, right. I mean, that's why the UAE 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.959 decided to leave Opek in the middle of wartime. It's 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:22.880 not like the strait is suddenly open because they did that. 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:24.640 That was the headline that crossed and it was like, wait. 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:29.480 It's wildly consequential because long term, the UAE is aligned 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:34.280 with and supported by Israel, and they do not want, 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.680 cannot tolerate this Islamic republican Iran with this level of 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.560 military capabilities, and they will continue to mow the grass, 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:44.480 as the Israelis call it, with Israel going forward if 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:49.000 those capabilities exist. The Saudis are not a globalies are 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:54.199 the regional anchor that's focused on long term, big cheap 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.280 oil production at scale. They've got a much bigger market themselves. 0:09:57.559 --> 0:09:59.439 They're going to be the regional anchor. They're going to 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:01.079 work with pas Kistan, which. 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.600 Provides a nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia. 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:05.560 They're going to do a deal with the Iranians that 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:09.840 Pakistan and China will facilitate. They will find a way 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:12.880 to engage so the day after this war is over, 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:14.520 it is a different Middle East. 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:18.040 It is a different Gulf, and the jizer Is worse. 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:20.600 Is it more stable, it's less stable, It's less stable. 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:24.800 It certainly is more aligned with the individual interests of 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:28.559 those countries, but you lack the multilateralism. The Golf Cooperation 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:31.120 Council is no longer fit for purpose. They could easily 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:35.440 fall apart. And that you know historically, again, people people 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:38.160 that are looking watching the show right now, Historically they 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:41.040 would go to they would invest in the golf and 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:44.800 it wouldn't matter so much if they had their headquarters 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:47.640 in Abu Dhabi or Saudi Arabia. That thing that will 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:50.360 be massively consequential going forward. They will not be a 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:55.360 singular golf strategy. You will need to understand how you 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:58.200 are engaged with these different leaders, both very strong leaders 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.880 and by the way, both generational, so it's not like 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:02.600 they're going away anytime soon. 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:03.800 This is a very big deal. 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.400 You mentioned China, and the role that China is about 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.480 to play could be significant. President Trump seems to think 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:11.440 that there's I won't call it a long game, but 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:15.040 maybe a break glass situation with President she If this 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:18.120 is not solved by then he goes to the meeting 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.240 with Hijin Ping and they work this out together. Is 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:24.600 he the Lynchpin to getting to Iran and getting this 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:25.440 straight eye open. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:26.920 It's got to be good. 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:29.480 It's going to have pandas. I like pandas. 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:33.280 And also the fact is that this summit is going 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:36.800 forward even with the straight still closed. And at the 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:40.400 same time, the US has put in principle sanctions against 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:44.000 Chinese teapot refineries that are not linked into the broader 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.959 financial system, and the Chinese in return, I said, okay, 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:49.839 if you actually do that, these companies will have the 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.079 right to go after any American company doing business in 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.800 China to receive the money that they've lost. Now, the 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.079 fact that China is willing to hit back like that 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.880 right before a summit with Trump shows that not only 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:03.680 are they confident, they know that the Americans are not 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:06.240 going to take moves against them. They know that they're 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:09.199 not really under pressure or resolve anything. So I think 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.640 the meeting will go well. I think they will show 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.079 respect for each other. I think, you know, Chijin Ping 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:15.920 will try to see if he can get Trump to 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:20.600 say something useful on opposing Taiwan independence, which she wants 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:22.640 and no one around Trump wants to see. 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:24.720 But one on one Trump might say. 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.600 That but this is this is not going to be 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.360 if you're waiting for a Sheshin Ping summit to be 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:30.920 a breakthrough on the straight up four moves. 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:31.640 Yeah, they want none. 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:33.719 This is the president not thinking that. The way he's 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:35.280 been talking recently makes you wonder. 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.319 The way he's been talking recently makes you wonder about 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.960 many things. Now, I mean, pick the tweet and tell 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.480 me which bit you want to focus on it. Then 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:45.280 we'll wonder. 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.600 About all the different events lunch time. No, but that the. 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:51.360 Point is he's frustrated, he's angry, he wants an off ramp. 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:54.040 He'd like to blame someone. It is his fault and 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.800 he can't do anything about it. That's an unusual situation 0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:57.280 for him. 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:58.200 I and I've got to ask you. 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.600 I was talking with an Iranian yesterday who's been in 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.720 this country for a long time. But he said, Iran 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.000 really wants to be actually friends with the United States 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.840 rather than China. And I think about that China Iran 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:13.319 Russia alliance. That's an interesting one. Do you feel that 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:15.560 that's possible the Islamic Republic? 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:16.400 No, of course not. 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.120 Look, I think I was listening to NPR briefly this morning. 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.960 There I listened to NPR brief this morning, and it 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.560 bothered me that, after five minutes of this interview, which 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.640 was wildly disconnected from what was happening on the ground, 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.440 people that would listen to this person who used to 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.800 be in the US Administration in the Treasury Department, I 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:36.040 don't know the name, and now is in some think 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:40.880 tank in Washington, but was not introduced as an Iranian 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:45.200 American who just desperately wants the regime to collapse and 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:47.560 will say anything in service of that. Now, that is 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.080 a legitimate perspective for a person to have, but the 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:54.280 people listening don't necessarily know that that is the perspective 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:57.200 of that person. And look, I would love to see 0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:00.600 the regime collapse. It's a brutal, horrible regime, lots of 0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:04.320 its own people. But what I want is not analysis, right, 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:06.200 What I want is not what's going to happen. 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:08.839 All I know is, man, just when I think it 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.199 could get easier, it's not. It just gets more complicated. 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.520 You create insanity for us on the Ecuation Center. 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:15.679 Thank you.