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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa A. Brawnwitz Jaily. We bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. There

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Speaker 1: are seventeen miles of corridor in the Pentagon, and the

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Speaker 1: distance between the second and the fourth floor and the

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Speaker 1: acclaimed e ring where the fancy people said it's maybe

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Speaker 1: thirty ft. James Travitis on September eleventh, two thousand one,

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Speaker 1: was on the fourth floor. Is a plane hit the

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Speaker 1: second floor? He was directly involved in that rescue effort,

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Speaker 1: and of course went on to a longer tenure on

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Speaker 1: a rock and on Afghanistan than literally any officer in

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Speaker 1: the American military forces. He joins us now off of

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Speaker 1: an extraordinary essay in Time magazine. Um At Musterrvidas, I

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Speaker 1: just congratulate you on the clearest statement from all the

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Speaker 1: experts weighing in on this debacle. Let's start with the

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Speaker 1: simple idea. When you constructed that essay, what was the

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Speaker 1: greatest mystery about where we are now in Afghanistan. I

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Speaker 1: think the mystery for all of us has been the

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Speaker 1: sudden complete collapse of the Afghan military. And to me,

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Speaker 1: you can pull a lot of different threads together. But

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Speaker 1: I spent a good deal of my four years as

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Speaker 1: Supreme a life commander of NATO, that's of course Afghanistan

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Speaker 1: NATO mission training the Afghan security forces. I would have

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Speaker 1: bet they could have held on for a long time

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Speaker 1: if we had continued to supply them and resource them.

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Speaker 1: So this sudden collapse with a shock to me, must

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Speaker 1: we have to get x thousands of people out. You

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Speaker 1: are expert at deploying helicopters, planes, whatever to do it.

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Speaker 1: I guess we're not going to deploy boats and ships

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Speaker 1: to get people out. How do we get them out?

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Speaker 1: Admiral Yeah, three miles to the sea, that's not a

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Speaker 1: good option. Landlocked country. Um, we have the technology to

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Speaker 1: get them out. The challenge is going to get them in.

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Speaker 1: By that, I mean getting them into the airport. We've

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Speaker 1: got to find a mechanism to bring in, first and

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Speaker 1: foremost the American citizens, but also the interpreters. The allies

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Speaker 1: who worked with us are are native partners. Um, there

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Speaker 1: are tens of thousands of people who need to get out.

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Speaker 1: The Taliban are around that airport. I think the only

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Speaker 1: path forward to get the people in is going to

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Speaker 1: be through the Taliban. No one likes that, but we're

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Speaker 1: going to have to have a very direct dialogue with them,

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Speaker 1: offering them some carrots and some sticks to open up

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Speaker 1: the doors and let the people in who want to leave.

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Speaker 1: A weal what do you make of this Taliban two

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Speaker 1: point oh? As some folks who are calling it they've

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Speaker 1: seen too on their initial press conference say everything that

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Speaker 1: a Westerner would want to hear. What did you make

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Speaker 1: of that Taliban two point oh? And I've been using

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Speaker 1: that phrase for quite a while. Um is taliban one

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Speaker 1: point oh with really good media training and and and

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Speaker 1: I for one do not believe they are going to

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Speaker 1: change their stripes. They're not going to suddenly listen to

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Speaker 1: their better rangels. They are not going to be kind

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Speaker 1: of a gentler. And even in the last couple of days,

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Speaker 1: we've seen shootings, beatings, their reports from out in the provinces,

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Speaker 1: out from under the side of Western media of girls

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Speaker 1: being taken away from their homes. I don't look for

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Speaker 1: big improvements. Unfortunately, all right, Adam, given where we are,

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Speaker 1: and it's it's easy to obviously keep focusing on the

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Speaker 1: video that we see on our news shows over the

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Speaker 1: last several days, but you've got the perspective of the

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Speaker 1: longer term as you look back over the last twenty years. Here,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts as you see these events of

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Speaker 1: unfolding on the screen. I think there's three vectors of

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Speaker 1: failures here. Uh One is the Afghan government and in

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Speaker 1: that sense, the people of Afghanistan. They did not buy into,

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Speaker 1: by and large, the vision that we had for the country.

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Speaker 1: I think a second vector is ourselves, our belief, our

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Speaker 1: hubris in believing that we could create a kind of

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Speaker 1: highly democratic, very Western oriented structure, train a national army.

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Speaker 1: Um we believe too much in our own mission. And

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Speaker 1: then thirdly, you've got to give credit to the Taliband here.

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Speaker 1: That's the third vector. They've been very successful and have

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Speaker 1: found ways to maneuver around us. And well, I've got

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Speaker 1: about forty two more questions, paulse we need tells me

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Speaker 1: with fifty more questions, But here's the single final question

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Speaker 1: on this morning, and it's just simply, isn't it to

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Speaker 1: the benefit of the Taliban. They're pushed in their tribe.

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Speaker 1: They've got their own rules set. Don't they want all

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Speaker 1: those elites to leave cobble. Isn't it your best interest

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Speaker 1: to get the elites out? It is, and frankly, not

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Speaker 1: just the elites they want to get In my view,

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Speaker 1: they ought to want to get all of these people out.

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Speaker 1: The question is what's their appetite for vengeance as opposed

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Speaker 1: to their rational calculus. Let's hope they land on the

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Speaker 1: ladder almost tribus. Thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: We've barely had time to touch on my Book of

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Speaker 1: the Summer two thousand thirty four, a novel of the

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Speaker 1: next World War. It is a different novel than what

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Speaker 1: we've been talking about, but I can't say enough about it.

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Speaker 1: It is. It is just a phenomenal read. I'd also

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Speaker 1: mentioned Thomas Barfield's one volume in Afghanistan. Paul just superb,

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Speaker 1: just superb on this stew We go macro. We do

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Speaker 1: that with George gun Comvas with m u f G Securities,

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Speaker 1: America's head of US macro strategy. George, I want you

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Speaker 1: to fold the g d P guestimates into the dynamics

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Speaker 1: of the market. You are acclaimed it yield dynamics. How

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Speaker 1: do you fold a movable feast of g d P

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Speaker 1: guesses into that? You don't, tom, I mean, and that's

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Speaker 1: really the bottom line. We've been really divorced from these

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Speaker 1: fundamentals for you know, going on five ten years. And

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Speaker 1: this is something that you know, I think most rate

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Speaker 1: forecasters have been kind of struggling with is trying to

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Speaker 1: go back to what, you know, what does growth and

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Speaker 1: inflation really mean for what should be captured within an

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Speaker 1: interest rate forecast? And I think that's that's you know,

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Speaker 1: that's the way the way things go. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: bomb market trades more and more on price and on momentum.

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Speaker 1: It trains almost like a commodity in many, many regards,

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Speaker 1: where yield becomes like a second thought until yields get

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Speaker 1: too low and then people start saying, wait, why am

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Speaker 1: I buying it? There's a lot of carry. George Lason

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Speaker 1: brought up a quote yesterday from Bank America that I

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Speaker 1: think it's really important. I was talking about it as well.

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Speaker 1: Bank America suggested we were at the threshold of a

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Speaker 1: major bifurcation of scenarios. They could say, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: go to north of two percent by the end of

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Speaker 1: the year, south of one percent by the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. Do you think things are that funny balanced

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Speaker 1: right now. I mean, maybe not that finally balanced, but

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Speaker 1: I do think that there is a break potentially coming

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Speaker 1: up soon and that and that is definitely true. And

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Speaker 1: I think you kind of in your intro kind of

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Speaker 1: alluded to these things that on the one hand, the

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Speaker 1: FETE is not gonna get boxed in. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: saw from the RB and Z you know, if you know,

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Speaker 1: the delta virus were to get worse, or if we

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Speaker 1: get any sort of kind of slow downs beyond what

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Speaker 1: we're being projected, or or the concerns of like this

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Speaker 1: kind of peak growth gets you know, further in trenched,

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Speaker 1: and that factors into a slower end of the year,

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Speaker 1: and it's the early part of Q one. The fact

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Speaker 1: can just kind of always push back. That's that's that's

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Speaker 1: what they'll always do. They're never gonna pull forward tightening,

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Speaker 1: They're always gonna push it back. And of course these

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Speaker 1: global factors matter too. And so even if we were

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Speaker 1: to handle the delta virus better in the US, if

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world either has a more lockdowns.

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Speaker 1: That's that's an issue. Plus this China growth dynamic, if

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Speaker 1: if that starts a really way on commodities and overall

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Speaker 1: just kind of economic financial conditions, the Fed's going to

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Speaker 1: take that into account as well. When you say the

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Speaker 1: FED won't get boxed in in other words, they don't

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Speaker 1: want to necessarily commit to tapering. There is an issue

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Speaker 1: of harmful effects of their carrying on with their programs

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Speaker 1: the way they are for a longer period of time,

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Speaker 1: especially as we do see inflationary pressures. Yes, they're idiosyncratic

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Speaker 1: with respect to supply chain issues, but also on the margin,

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Speaker 1: if we do get a rebound like Goldban, Sachs thinks

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Speaker 1: it could be that much bigger if the FED keeps

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Speaker 1: pumping money into the financial system. How much are you

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Speaker 1: concerned that the FED is drugging off some of these

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Speaker 1: dill interious effects of their continuing of monetary stimulus at

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Speaker 1: this point, Oh, I'm concerned. I mean, as we all know,

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Speaker 1: it's all not what we want the FED to do,

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Speaker 1: or we think to fetch should do. It's what they

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Speaker 1: will do, right, so we're always trying to forecast that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I do think that they should be in

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Speaker 1: the process of tapering and maybe they've overstayed there their

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Speaker 1: Q we welcome for from quarters now potentially and they maybe,

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Speaker 1: you know, we should have been starting sooner. But you

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Speaker 1: know that's that's my my opinion, not necessarily what they're

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Speaker 1: gonna do. Well, well, let's go with that. Then what's

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Speaker 1: the negative consequence of that that you're willing to bet

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Speaker 1: on or that you're gaming out in terms of your

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Speaker 1: market call. Yeah, so right now, like the concern is

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Speaker 1: and we're seeing it manifests itself in the r RP

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Speaker 1: in the reverse repot program and how there's too much liquidity.

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Speaker 1: Even in the minutes yesterday, Uh, you know, there was

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Speaker 1: referenced that potentially as we headed to a debt ceiling

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Speaker 1: with all this liquidity, with the Fed not tapering yet,

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Speaker 1: potentially uh you know, most likely, I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: going to do it in September unless things really perfectly

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Speaker 1: line up in terms of tapering announcement any even that

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Speaker 1: they do that, they're not gonna start in September. So

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of liquidity still flows in

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Speaker 1: the system into this very acute period of excess liquidity,

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Speaker 1: and so that you know, causes an intertal potentially for

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Speaker 1: the money market. So there's definitely a science that you know,

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Speaker 1: they need to be tapering and they need to get

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Speaker 1: out of this que business. You've spent a long time

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Speaker 1: with Japanese banks, George. The reason I bring that up

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Speaker 1: is because you've got a lot of experience looking at

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Speaker 1: the Japanese bond market. I want to understand from your perspective,

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Speaker 1: because some people raise this question just because I'm asking

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Speaker 1: it doesn't mean I believe it's going to happen. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a question we need to be asking. Do

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Speaker 1: you think we could replicate what we've seen type place

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Speaker 1: in Japan over the last twenty years, which ultimately Europe

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Speaker 1: took over in the last ten Do you think that

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Speaker 1: could happen in America? So Europe is still struggling with

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Speaker 1: believing that there's a Japanification going on within their bond market.

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Speaker 1: But when you have negative rates and you have just

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Speaker 1: low activity overall in Europe, I think the Europe looks

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Speaker 1: a lot more like Japan than the US will for

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Speaker 1: the most part. But I think that you know, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that we talk about always like these breaks and markets

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Speaker 1: for the next quarter, but the real breaks is trying

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Speaker 1: to understand the next three or five years, if the

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Speaker 1: U S can really get it back into a growth

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Speaker 1: trend that would prevent us from falling into like this

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Speaker 1: Japan scenario. I would say, I would say, we're not there.

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Speaker 1: It's not clear yet. I agree m u f G

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Speaker 1: Securities Matt Cross, head of US MACROI Strategy. He is optimistic.

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Speaker 1: His name is Neil Datta, and he is courageously carved

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Speaker 1: an optimistic tone on the classic g DP formula. He

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Speaker 1: joins us down on a day of a multiple set

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Speaker 1: of glooms. Neil, within the GDP formula, what's gonna come

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Speaker 1: to the rescue? Is it the consumer? Is it investment,

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Speaker 1: net exports? What comes to the rescue to give us

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Speaker 1: a better than good outcome? Well, I think it's inventories. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know when you look at UM, the last I

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Speaker 1: s M number, the customer inventories index that looks at UM,

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Speaker 1: you know respondents that are saying their current level of

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Speaker 1: inventories are too low compared to too high, and it's

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Speaker 1: basically at a record. So basically manufacturing UM survey respondents

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Speaker 1: are telling you the inventory levels are too low. Basically,

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Speaker 1: what that means is they're going to be um, you know,

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Speaker 1: working to fill those inventories. Right. They need to get

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Speaker 1: inventories into line with final demand. And while inventories, you know,

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Speaker 1: over long periods of time kind of net out to zero,

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Speaker 1: they do in the short run contribute a lot to

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Speaker 1: cyclical swings and growth. And that's gonna put manufacturing production

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Speaker 1: into overdrive. So you know, when you look at things

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Speaker 1: like Philly fed at nineteen point four, that's still a

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Speaker 1: pretty healthy number. Uh. And so you know, manufacturing production

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Speaker 1: is going to be a talent for economic activity. And

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Speaker 1: as those inventories catch up to final demand, that's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a big tale went for overall GDP. I just

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Speaker 1: took Philadelphia fed photos off my terminal. You're uh back

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Speaker 1: fifteen years and Neil's right, it's nicely above the long

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Speaker 1: term moving average. Neil Dudda, what is your g DP

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Speaker 1: for two thousand tow you one? We're seeing everybody market

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Speaker 1: and market down. Where are you for the economic growth

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Speaker 1: of the nation for this calendar year? Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think like six and a half seven percent is

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Speaker 1: not beyond the realm of expectations. And I understand that

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Speaker 1: people are taking their their forecast down for the third quarter.

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Speaker 1: I think that's largely just a mechanical adjustment to what's

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Speaker 1: going on with the delta variants. So you have increasing

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Speaker 1: COVID spread. People are taking matters into their own hands

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Speaker 1: and staying away from restaurants, their travel hotels, these sort

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Speaker 1: of high touch services. But you know, I mean the

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Speaker 1: people that I talked to have a time horizon that

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Speaker 1: extends beyond three weeks, and um, you know, when I

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Speaker 1: look further out the twelve to eighteen month outlook, can

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Speaker 1: anyone really say that that's materially changed. Um. If anything,

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Speaker 1: you're seeing more activity getting pushed into that into that

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Speaker 1: time frame. Is such an important point, if you allow

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Speaker 1: me to jump in, We've been talking about your point

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Speaker 1: through this morning. For you and other it's recovery delayed,

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Speaker 1: not derailed. That any growth we lose in this quarter,

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Speaker 1: we gain regain in the in the next quarter in

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Speaker 1: the year after that. Now, what's the difference between a

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Speaker 1: recovery that's delayed in the recovery that's derailed. What distinguishes

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Speaker 1: the two things. Well, I'm just saying there's not as

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Speaker 1: much structural, um, you know, changes in consumer behavior than

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Speaker 1: people are expecting right now. So just extrapolating what's going on, UM,

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Speaker 1: and you know in August isn't necessarily going to tell

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Speaker 1: you much about what's going to happen next August. It

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Speaker 1: may well be John that we're trading a bit more

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Speaker 1: COVID risk now for a lot less COVID risk later. UM. Certainly,

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Speaker 1: if you look at UM, you know, some of the

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Speaker 1: data on coronavirus, it looks like cases will probably start

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Speaker 1: to peak sometime in the next week and case growth

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Speaker 1: will begin to moderate. To the extent that COVID is

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Speaker 1: an issue, I think it's more of an issue in

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Speaker 1: the Asia Pacific economies, right Australia, New Zealand, UM, certainly Vietnam,

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Speaker 1: you know you're seeing and so maybe that's going to

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Speaker 1: exacerbate some supply chain issues. But at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, I don't think it's going to matter much

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Speaker 1: for the U S housing situation. Well, but you know,

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Speaker 1: there does seem to be a one to punch here.

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Speaker 1: On one hand, I mean, I'm just throwing this out there.

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Speaker 1: Aren't you tired of being wrong? For the last skeptical

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Speaker 1: I'm not making a market call, honestly, it's honestly trying

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Speaker 1: to come up to look around corners. Wow, you come

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Speaker 1: out with gloves on. Um, bear with me while I

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Speaker 1: try to ask my question. But like just this one

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Speaker 1: two punch of supply chain disruptions that are causing higher

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Speaker 1: input costs in addition to a FED that's being that

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Speaker 1: much more patient because of some of the headwinds that

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Speaker 1: the economy is is experiencing. I mean, does this contribute

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Speaker 1: to higher inflation on the margins down the line than

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Speaker 1: otherwise would happen? Well, I think it's not so much

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Speaker 1: about the inflation in my view, it's about what the

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Speaker 1: FED is gonna do about it, right, I mean, so,

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Speaker 1: I mean I conceive that point. I mean, you have

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Speaker 1: had a little bit of you could say, stagflation light

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Speaker 1: concerns coming to the market. Growth has weakened. I mean

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Speaker 1: even the FED staff took down their growth outlook and

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Speaker 1: revised up their inflation outlook. We saw it in the

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Speaker 1: minutes yesterday. Um. But again I think that's probably going

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Speaker 1: to be uh temporary and certainly, um, you know you

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Speaker 1: have seen things like use car prices come down. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if anything, in the July data, the supply chain issues

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Speaker 1: are becoming less prevalent, right. I mean, if you look

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Speaker 1: at building unit housing units under construction still going up,

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Speaker 1: completions going up, so even as starts moderated, right, So

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Speaker 1: that tells you that buildings are working through those backlogs

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Speaker 1: and similar we had a nice popping manufacturing production driven

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Speaker 1: by h autos motor vehicles. Neil, Can I ask you

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Speaker 1: a question, does it what does it make you upset

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Speaker 1: to hear people try to come up with the potential

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Speaker 1: barish counterpoints at a time where there still is a

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Speaker 1: lot of pain in the economy. I mean, yes, it

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Speaker 1: has been my right. My job, Lisa is to take

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Speaker 1: an economics call and help investors turned that into some

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Speaker 1: kind of a market call. In other words, make them

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Speaker 1: help help them make money. So if I wanted to

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Speaker 1: be bearish, I would tell people to pile I mean,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, it's not about what

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Speaker 1: GDP is. It's irrelevant. It's using that two and translating

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Speaker 1: it into a market call. So if you want to

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Speaker 1: go head first and buy utilities hand over first, be

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Speaker 1: my guest, but I will I'll be telling people to

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Speaker 1: do something else. Uh. And that's ultimately how business economics

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Speaker 1: market economics That's why it's important. A GDP call on

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Speaker 1: its own is irrelevant. What matters is taking that GDP

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Speaker 1: call and translating into some kind of market outlook. So uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, if if I'm looking at it and I'm

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Speaker 1: telling people are saying you want to be raising cash

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Speaker 1: for the last twelve months, it's ridiculous. So um, I

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Speaker 1: think the cyclical trade is probably taking a temporary break.

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Speaker 1: But this is essentially my view of consolidation within an

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Speaker 1: ongoing up trend in the market. You two should have

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Speaker 1: to run, could just sit, I could just take a break,

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Speaker 1: nail dust, Nanny's gonna catch up. Appreciate your time and

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Speaker 1: nice research had of US economic research. This is an

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Speaker 1: important conversation because Jennifer news Oh reads the research. Jennifer

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Speaker 1: news O The New York Times has a standout article

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Speaker 1: on these silly plastic barriers that have invaded our lives

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Speaker 1: That includes JOHNS Hopkins University research which say death screens

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Speaker 1: could actually give us an increased risk versus intelligent use

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Speaker 1: of mass. Can you help us with the plastic that's

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Speaker 1: engulfed us. I am hermetically sealed from Lisa and John.

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Speaker 1: I haven't hugged Lisa in like eighteen months. I mean,

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Speaker 1: help me, Jennifer. I think Lisa nets out rotten out home.

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Speaker 1: Can you watch the ductor about a question? I missed

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Speaker 1: you guys so much. Jennifer, Please on the plastic screen.

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Speaker 1: Somebody reach over and hog Tom. He really needs it.

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Speaker 1: Go ahead. I mean, you know, listen. Uh. We don't

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Speaker 1: have a lot of evidence for a lot of these things.

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Speaker 1: I think intuitively, there are probably some environments in which

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Speaker 1: it makes sense. It's, for instance, toll both operators people

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Speaker 1: who have a lot of exposure with the public. Putting

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Speaker 1: another barrier between those people and the people they're serving,

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Speaker 1: I think makes a lot of sense. But when you

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Speaker 1: see people sitting at a desk and they have like

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Speaker 1: a three foot um, you know, plexiglass between them, it's

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Speaker 1: it's not clear what that does, if anything, and it

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Speaker 1: sounds like it could potentially cause harm. The bottom line

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Speaker 1: is UM probably not going to be as protective as

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Speaker 1: a mask. Although you know, we always try to layer

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Speaker 1: these interventions, but UM, you know, I think the most

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Speaker 1: egregious example of the plastic was that one of the

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Speaker 1: vice presidential debate, those tiny little things that UM separated

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Speaker 1: m vice presidential candidates not going to do much help

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Speaker 1: me with then the need to get vaccinated. What is

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Speaker 1: the last forty hour show you within all your reading

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Speaker 1: and research about the getting vaccinated, that has not changed.

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Speaker 1: If we do anything to put ourselves back to normal,

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Speaker 1: to go to back to our lives, it is to

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Speaker 1: get vaccinated. There is nothing new in the data that

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Speaker 1: suggests otherwise. Heard a lot of news yesterday about the

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Speaker 1: potential need for a third dose. I will tell you

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Speaker 1: most people, including myself, think that the data aren't quite

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Speaker 1: there to suggest that most people need it. There are

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Speaker 1: clearly some small groups of people that absolutely need extra help,

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Speaker 1: and that's the immune compromise, and they're already able to

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Speaker 1: access a third dose. But as far as people broadly, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're not yet convinced that that's happened. The

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Speaker 1: bottom line is the vaccines are still doing exactly what

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Speaker 1: they need them to do. They prevent us from getting

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Speaker 1: still enough to get in the hospital, which again, if

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Speaker 1: this virus can't do it, we'd never hear of it.

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Speaker 1: Dr Newts. So then when do we stop caring whether

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Speaker 1: we get infected? Because right now I'll tell you, I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, it is a vaccinated individual who has a

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Speaker 1: child at home, and I sound like a broken record

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Speaker 1: who is not needed. I care as much about getting

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Speaker 1: infected as I do about getting very sick, just simply

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Speaker 1: because this will affect the people who I care about.

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Speaker 1: So when does when does that change? Sure? So I

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Speaker 1: think that's exactly a potential off ramp for caring about

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Speaker 1: getting infected. UM. I have also unvaccinated kids at home

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Speaker 1: because they're too young, and hopefully when vaccines become available

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Speaker 1: for them, that'll that will lessen those worries. But getting

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Speaker 1: a third dose doesn't necessarily prevent you from getting infected

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Speaker 1: in the first place, so that's unfortunately not going to

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Speaker 1: use those worries for you. Dr needs. There have been

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Speaker 1: reports about new antibody therapies coming out of China that

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Speaker 1: have actually been somewhat promising. How much does that potentially

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Speaker 1: provide a game changer here where we can actually combat

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Speaker 1: this and treat it more like a regular illness. I

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Speaker 1: think that's, you know, one of the missing areas that

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Speaker 1: we need more progress on it is treatments because you

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Speaker 1: know there will be still some breakthrough infections, but also

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Speaker 1: we know we have a lot of people who are

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Speaker 1: not vaccinated and are gonna need treatment. So that is

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Speaker 1: I think an important area of research. We have some

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Speaker 1: things now, but they're not very scala. But you still

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Speaker 1: have the the monoclonal anivis and hear about you have

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Speaker 1: to go to uh A center and basically be hooked

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Speaker 1: up to an ivy. And so it's very hard to

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Speaker 1: deliver that UM at scale, particularly given the number of

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Speaker 1: cases that we have. If we could give somebody a

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Speaker 1: pill and treat them potentially even at home, like we

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Speaker 1: do for influenza, I think that would have an enormous

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Speaker 1: contribution to lessening our worries about this virus. Jennifer, New

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Speaker 1: York City restaurants and I'm sure other restaurants that are

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Speaker 1: listeners and viewers are familiar with UH. They're in an

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Speaker 1: uproar about paper vaccine inspection to get into their restaurant.

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Speaker 1: When do we get away from silliness of what the

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Speaker 1: eighteen fifties? When do we get away from a paper

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Speaker 1: document that's clearly instantly forgible. Yeah, well, I mean I

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Speaker 1: think that's a real problem. People can forge it. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: UM the apps are not potentially better than that. I

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Speaker 1: think there was a story about one of the apps

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Speaker 1: being news in New York where you could just upload

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Speaker 1: any photo and get a green check and then it's on. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, the bouncer at a club to scrutinize whether

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Speaker 1: you've got your two fighter ghost is on time. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think there are people who are pushing for a

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Speaker 1: more verified vaccine record. Of course, that raises all sorts

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Speaker 1: of concerns and potentially concerns among the people who have

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Speaker 1: not yet gotten vaccinated, and we absolutely don't want to

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Speaker 1: turn those folks off. But I think, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing right now the challenges of the immunization records

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Speaker 1: that we have there um easily forgeable. In my view, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, people who are determined to not comply, we'll

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Speaker 1: find a way not to. People are very crafty, and

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Speaker 1: so I tend to focus on changing hearts and minds

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Speaker 1: and make sure we convince people to get vaccinated. Don't

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Speaker 1: thank you. I appreciate you a time of perspective. As always,

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Speaker 1: Dontor Jennifer news Sock. I think John's help can sense

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Speaker 1: behind security. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern

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00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from

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Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg