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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, let make

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Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app

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Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: So is China going to invade Taiwan? This is obviously

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Speaker 2: something that I'm spending a lot of time thinking about

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Speaker 2: right now because I just got back from a week

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Speaker 2: in Taiwan. I interviewed the president President Lai and that

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Speaker 2: now has been picked up by the international media. So

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Speaker 2: a lot of eyeballs on this issue, which is one

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Speaker 2: of the main reasons of course I wanted to go.

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Speaker 2: But I sat down with the Vice President of Taiwan,

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Speaker 2: the National Security Council, national Security Advisor. I went to

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Speaker 2: I'm going to answer the question it is trying to

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Speaker 2: get invade, but first I went to a military basis

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Speaker 2: either high mars artillery system really more like a rocket system,

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Speaker 2: but they call it an artillery system. I saw a

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Speaker 2: drone manufacturing facility. Of course, drones very important in military

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Speaker 2: applications and all kinds of defense of the future. Quite honestly,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be tech and AI related. I saw

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Speaker 2: a boat manufacturing facility that on the one hand makes

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Speaker 2: traditional all kinds of boats, but traditional navy boats, coastguard vessels,

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Speaker 2: but not very big ones, I think less than one

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Speaker 2: hundred feet only. But they are making speedboats that have

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Speaker 2: an explosive payload, that are autonomous, that are drone speedboats

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Speaker 2: with a big boom in them, or that will go boom.

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Speaker 2: That was really interesting. Went to TSMC, which is the

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Speaker 2: chip manufacturer that plays a huge role not just in

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Speaker 2: the global economy and artificial intelligence, but plays a very

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Speaker 2: substantial role in the whole national security situation.

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Speaker 1: So I got a very good overview.

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Speaker 2: And thank you to my friend Stephen Yates, my buddy

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Speaker 2: now of almost fifteen years, who set all of this up.

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Speaker 2: He's at the Heritage Foundation. He was my guru, my

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Speaker 2: shirpa through all of this. And my two brothers, Mason

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Speaker 2: and Keats came. They I just wanted them to be

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Speaker 2: there and see Taiwan and and to be able to

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Speaker 2: soak up as much of this information as they could.

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Speaker 2: And you know, they're very involved in their own ways

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Speaker 2: in well let's just say commerce and politics and how

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Speaker 2: Taiwan plays into all that. So is China going to invade?

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Speaker 2: I think the answer, unfortunately is yes. So then the

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Speaker 2: next question is when now.

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Speaker 1: There I can tell you this.

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Speaker 2: I have spoken to a whole range of experts on

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen here, and they disagree about basically

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Speaker 2: everything in terms of when this is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Is the invasion going to happen?

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Speaker 2: Different experts, and I'm talking about people in the DoD

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Speaker 2: here in the States, I'm talking about people in the

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Speaker 2: national security apparatus in Taiwan and outside experts. I get

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Speaker 2: different answers from everybody on this stuff because nobody can

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Speaker 2: predict the future, and there's a lot of variables here

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Speaker 2: for anyone who was wondering, by the way, before I

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Speaker 2: dive into some of this, this back and forth on

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Speaker 2: Taiwan something that I think is important. If you're saying, oh,

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Speaker 2: I don't care, or why does this affect me? If

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Speaker 2: we wake up and Taiwan Taipei the capital, it's being

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Speaker 2: pummelines missiles to soften up their defenses in advance of

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Speaker 2: a blockade of the islands, so ships preventing other ships

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Speaker 2: from getting the area, and an amphibious invasion with massive

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Speaker 2: Chinese forces deployed. The stock market is going to crash

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Speaker 2: like you've never seen. It will be trillions of dollars

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Speaker 2: of wealth erased overnight. You will see a global supply

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Speaker 2: chain disruption of the likes of which we have not seen,

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Speaker 2: I think, worse than what you even saw in the

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Speaker 2: early days of COVID. It will be an absolute mess

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Speaker 2: for everybody. If you live in Oklahoma, your iPhone relies

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Speaker 2: on chips made in Taiwan, and this is the point

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Speaker 2: that's so critical. They can't be made anywhere else. So

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Speaker 2: that's why on just a basic day to day level,

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Speaker 2: this really matters. So I think that everybody should first

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Speaker 2: put it in that context. I also want to say

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Speaker 2: my well, I'll get into what I think should happen,

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Speaker 2: But why do I believe, after talking to all these

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Speaker 2: advisors and all these different individuals, why do I think

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Speaker 2: that China is going to invade? Well, for one thing,

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Speaker 2: they say they're going to do it. I know they've

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Speaker 2: said that for a long time. But Shi Jinping is

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Speaker 2: a full blown dictator, is a very scary individual, and

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Speaker 2: he has set a date for this of twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: People keep saying he won't do it while Trump's in office,

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Speaker 2: and to that, I say, well, why, because it's going

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Speaker 2: to be so much easier under a possible JD vance administration.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's the case.

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Speaker 2: So also, is Trump really that favorable toward the defensive

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Speaker 2: time one, It's not really known where Trump is on

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Speaker 2: this now. I think that's by design. It's in a

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Speaker 2: way a continuation of the official US position, which is

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Speaker 2: strategic ambiguity.

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Speaker 1: Will we do it? Will we not do it? Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll see.

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Speaker 2: And that's the intentional position. I've never seen this anywhere

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Speaker 2: else in the US foreign policy, certainly not as explicitly

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Speaker 2: put out this way. That is the intentional position of

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Speaker 2: the United States government on this, and it has been

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Speaker 2: for a long time. Will we won't We we'll see.

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Speaker 2: But also, China is in no danger when you start

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Speaker 2: to so that they've said they're going to do it.

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Speaker 2: China is in no danger of invasion or military class

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Speaker 2: with any of its neighbors. You know, it's got India

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Speaker 2: on one side, Russia on the other. They're not they're

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Speaker 2: not doing anything. Then you have the vast step the

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Speaker 2: sort of grassland super highway that the Mongols used to

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Speaker 2: conquer much of the known world, you know, a long

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Speaker 2: time ago. That's not They're not going to get invaded

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Speaker 2: by any of the stands. You know, Kazakhstan is not

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Speaker 2: about to invade China. You know, turkmenis Stan, all these places,

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Speaker 2: they're not about to So we know that that's not

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Speaker 2: the end. Japan just wants to do its own thing.

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Speaker 2: There's no invasion threat of China. Why is it olding

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Speaker 2: up its military in this massive way, an unprecedented build up,

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Speaker 2: churning out so many ships, churning out so many missiles.

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Speaker 2: There's only one goal that this can have because the

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Speaker 2: country no one would dream of invading, China has a

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Speaker 2: billion people, all right, It's just it's not even on

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Speaker 2: the table for anyone. So this is all geared toward

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Speaker 2: taking Taiwan, and there's a deep seated need. Remember that

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Speaker 2: the Chinese the CCP of the Chinese Communist Party, and

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Speaker 2: I really recommend people read Mao. The Untold Story is

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Speaker 2: the one that I really really love. Jun Chang and

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Speaker 2: John Halliday, I think, are the authors that it explains

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Speaker 2: to you that Mao is just the most evil human being,

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Speaker 2: maybe certainly in modern history. I don't know if anybody

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Speaker 2: could be more evil in terms of the death and

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Speaker 2: the sadism and the murderous nature.

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Speaker 1: Of his policies.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Hitler's horrible, Stalin's horrible. Mao has them

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Speaker 2: all beat in terms of numbers, raw numbers of people

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Speaker 2: who were killed murdered by the state in what a

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Speaker 2: lot of times through starvation. It's a really horrible way

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Speaker 2: to go. So now is an evil SOB and he

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Speaker 2: is the founder of the CCP, And now Shijin Ping

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Speaker 2: has that mantle. Hjin Ping has taken over this role.

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Speaker 2: So there's reason, I think for extremely high levels of

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Speaker 2: concern right now for an invasion of Taiwan. And I'll

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Speaker 2: get into how I think that invasion looks here in

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Speaker 2: so what do I think an invasion looks like? I

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Speaker 2: had these conversations again with people of all different all

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Speaker 2: different perspectives, who are very focused on this issue. In

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Speaker 2: many cases have access to the classified the high side,

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Speaker 2: whether Taiwanese or American version of it, and everybody has

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Speaker 2: different answers, so no one knows what the answer is.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's most likely that if China was

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Speaker 2: to do this, you would see a combination of blockade

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Speaker 2: and blitzkrieg. The blockade would probably start with some pretense

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Speaker 2: of there's an issue that we're solving in the area,

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Speaker 2: there's some problem that we, the Chinese military, are addressing.

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Speaker 2: So we're going to do that, and we're not allowing

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Speaker 2: any other ships in the area. So in a sense,

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Speaker 2: they'd be daring Taiwan to do something about them. And

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Speaker 2: then the blitzkrieg would be the missiles, which they're just

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Speaker 2: going to try to pummel Taiwan with missiles and then

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Speaker 2: soften things up for the invasion force to land. And

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Speaker 2: I think their goal would be to finish off this

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Speaker 2: conflict before the US could even make a realistic effort,

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Speaker 2: if it would choose to do so, if it would

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Speaker 2: choose to do so in defense of Taiwan. So they

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Speaker 2: finish it off, they say, look, we've taken the island. Guys,

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Speaker 2: this is ours one China policy internal matter. This is

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Speaker 2: from the CCP perspective, you really want to lose an

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Speaker 2: aircraft carrier two to our anti ship missiles. Again, from

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Speaker 2: the Chinese perspective, you really want to lose Americans in

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Speaker 2: this fight, very very compelling, because we don't want to

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Speaker 2: lose Americans in somebody else's fight, right, So this you

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Speaker 2: start to that's their plan, and if they can get there,

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Speaker 2: if they believe they can get there, I think they're

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Speaker 2: going to launch an invasion. And as I've said, this

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Speaker 2: is hugely problematic for the rest of the.

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Speaker 1: World for two reasons.

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Speaker 2: One, the massive economic hit that.

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Speaker 1: This will create, and you're.

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Speaker 2: Going to have, like I said, the tech economy will

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Speaker 2: come to a screeching holt.

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Speaker 1: Now this might go on for weeks.

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Speaker 2: This isn't just like a twenty four hour thing, So

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Speaker 2: the tech economy all of a sudden, you're going to

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Speaker 2: see real pain and pandemonium around that.

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Speaker 1: So that's one part of it.

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Speaker 2: And then the other part of it is we can't

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Speaker 2: allow China to have full control of the fabs, the

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Speaker 2: manufacturing facilities for the most advanced microchips in the world,

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Speaker 2: and that's what they would have if they took.

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Speaker 1: Control of Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: The sea CP would without question if they took over.

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Speaker 2: Now there's questions about would there be intentional destruction of

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Speaker 2: these facilities by Taiwanese stakeholders. There's a lot of there's

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Speaker 2: so many variables. This is why everybody has different opinions.

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Speaker 2: But if the CCP was able to take control and

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Speaker 2: then run these factories, and you know, in a matter

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Speaker 2: of time, they probably would be able to figure that out.

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Speaker 2: They will have a stranglehold on the global tech economy,

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Speaker 2: which affects all of us. Remember that there's chips. There

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Speaker 2: are micro chips, semiconductors in your car, in your likely

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Speaker 2: in your washer dryer, certainly in your smartphone and your

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Speaker 2: laptop and your television, all of these things reliant chips.

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Speaker 2: If China controls the chips that the whole world relies on,

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Speaker 2: think about the leverage that gives them, and think about

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Speaker 2: the counterintelligence.

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Speaker 1: Risks that that creates for us.

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Speaker 2: So we're all going to be buying our most sensitive chips,

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Speaker 2: because that's going to include chips used for military application. Everybody,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be buying all that from China. So that's

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Speaker 2: where you see. This is a huge, a huge problem,

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Speaker 2: a huge challenge, and why I think everybody has to

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Speaker 2: look at this. I get there's a boy cried wolf feeling.

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Speaker 2: Oh the South China Sea, the Gray Zone, ships are

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Speaker 2: ramming each other. They're arguing over the sen Kaku or

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Speaker 2: the Da Dayu islands. They're arguing over this little island

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Speaker 2: chain or that you know, fishing rights here or there.

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Speaker 2: Now that's important stuff for those countries, but we don't

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Speaker 2: really care, right you're not up late at night, like.

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Speaker 1: Who's going to be in control of the Senkaku Islands.

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Speaker 2: But now it's about going for the big prize, which

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Speaker 2: is Taiwan. This is now a shift from the Chinese

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Speaker 2: Commist Party. And one of the reasons, one of the

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Speaker 2: reasons that we know this is that they have cut

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Speaker 2: off travel to Taiwan almost all of it, like ninety

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Speaker 2: percent of travel from mainland China to Taiwan is gone.

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Speaker 2: That wasn't the case even five six years ago. There

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Speaker 2: was plenty of tourists coming in from China, and they've

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Speaker 2: cut off. They have no communication between the governments. None

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Speaker 2: think about that. Note they're only one hundred miles apart.

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Speaker 2: No communication from the Taiwanese government to the Chinese government

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Speaker 2: and vice versa, or the you know CCP Beijing government.

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Speaker 2: And because there's Republic of there's a Republic of China,

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Speaker 2: which is Taiwan, and then there's you know, democratic People's

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Speaker 2: Republic of China or whatever. I mean, there's all these

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Speaker 2: different or People's Republic of China PRC. Sorry, there's a

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Speaker 2: Democrats I can't go all sorry, there's Democratic.

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Speaker 1: Republic, People's Republic of North Korea.

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Speaker 2: Right, the longer the name and the more claims to

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Speaker 2: political legitimacy in the name, the less legitimate the regime

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Speaker 2: always is.

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Speaker 1: You know that. So these are these are the factors.

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Speaker 2: But they're they're they're setting up to do this and

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Speaker 2: and I don't know, well, can they be stopped and

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Speaker 2: what would the US role in that be?

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Speaker 1: So what do I think we should do about this?

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Speaker 2: I know that's a critical component, right, That's something that

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Speaker 2: we have to know. I'm not saying we should set

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Speaker 2: up US military bases in Taiwan. I'm not saying we

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Speaker 2: should do the fighting for them. They told me very explicitly,

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Speaker 2: the president of that country and many many other officials

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Speaker 2: told me they will fight, and they will fight tooth

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Speaker 2: and nail to defend their sovereignty, to defend their island.

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Speaker 2: Now there's some skepticism from people in the American policy

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Speaker 2: intelligency about this.

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Speaker 1: I'm just telling.

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Speaker 2: You they were as full throated and clear about this

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Speaker 2: as they could be. They say they will fight, and

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Speaker 2: I think that for the leadership for a lot of people.

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Speaker 2: They look at what happened to Hong Kong. Which what

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Speaker 2: happened to Hong Kong, it's now been consumed by the CCP.

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Speaker 1: Dragon.

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Speaker 2: It is now fully under the thumb of the CCP.

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Speaker 2: The different system there. Freedom and democracy gone gone hope.

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Speaker 2: I was told by somebody who's actually tied to a

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Speaker 2: very prominent dissident who's in prison in Hong Kong now

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Speaker 2: for writing newspaper. Essentially, I was told that the way

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Speaker 2: to describe Hong Kong now as hope is just eradicated.

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Speaker 2: And people see that and they really remember China was saying,

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Speaker 2: Oh no, it's fine, it's ours, don't worry. This is

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Speaker 2: an internal matter. It'd be the same thing in Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: It would be turning that island into a surf a

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Speaker 2: serfdom of the CCP. And people don't want that. So

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Speaker 2: I think they are willing to defend themselves, that's my assessment.

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Speaker 2: How can they, Well, this is where they have to

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Speaker 2: get asymmetric, and this is where drones and advanced tech

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Speaker 2: and things like ANDROL technology, which is very much involved

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Speaker 2: in trying to come up with new ways to use

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Speaker 2: AI and tech and manufacturing capacity. The Taiwanese are very

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Speaker 2: good at tech and manufacturing, and they're going to have

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Speaker 2: to produce and also work with partners to produce an

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Speaker 2: arsenal of self defense munitions and capabilities that is so

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Speaker 2: formidable that China just keeps on delaying, delaying, delaying, essentially

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Speaker 2: create a perpetuation of the status quo with Taiwan by

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Speaker 2: raising the price so high that it is on indefinite

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Speaker 2: delay because China is I think the current regime is

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Speaker 2: never going to say, okay, Taiwan can do its own thing.

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Speaker 2: That's never gonna happen. You'd have to have a collapse

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Speaker 2: of the CCP. But you can delay it indefinitely, you know,

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Speaker 2: you can maybe kick it out ten twenty thirty years

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Speaker 2: maybe if Taiwan really gets its capabilities in order. In

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Speaker 2: China realizes that, and of course there's tremendous amounts of

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Speaker 2: spying and espionage going on, and they're all kinds of

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of cases actually that the Taiwanese courts

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Speaker 2: are going.

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Speaker 1: Through about people who are CCP moles and spies in Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: So they have a tremendous amount of intelligence collection going

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Speaker 2: on against the Taiwanese. So they have a good sense

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Speaker 2: of capabilities. If they can get their capabilities to a

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Speaker 2: point where the CCP would risk Chinese Communist Party would

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Speaker 2: risk disaster with the plan that I laid out of

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Speaker 2: the of the blockade and blitzkrieg strike. Then I think

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Speaker 2: that they might be able, They might be okay, they

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Speaker 2: might be able to continue on and make their chips

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Speaker 2: and live. It's a wonderful country. I mean, I really

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Speaker 2: have tremendous respect for the Taiwanese. They are a a friendly, orderly,

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Speaker 2: law abiding, just just very good, smart, impressive people. It's

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Speaker 2: a great country of great people, and and I certainly

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Speaker 2: think it deserves its sovereignty and deserves to just live

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Speaker 2: in peace. And that's all they want. They just want

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Speaker 2: to live in peace and make great products for the

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Speaker 2: rest of the world. But communists have to destroy, and

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Speaker 2: the CCP, even though they're not traditional you know, Marxist Leninist,

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Speaker 2: the CCP wants to destroy and to own and to control.

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Speaker 2: And I hope that we the US, will give give

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Speaker 2: the Taiwanese the tools to do the job, help them

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Speaker 2: get the tools to do the job, because I think

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Speaker 2: that's possible. That's the Taiwan Deep Dive shield time