1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,479 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: Business app, or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 3: We reassembled our panel. Genie Shanzano is here Bloomberg Politics contributor, 6 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 3: along with John Sidaliiti's partner at Trilogy Advisors. Genie, what's 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 3: your thought on this specific number, because it does inform 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 3: what you were just talking about that Joe Biden. Donald 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 3: Trump rather doesn't think he should be on the debate 10 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 3: stage with a bunch of other candidates because well, basically 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 3: he's still the president and if fifty one percent of 12 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 3: his supporters in Iowa feel that way, then he's probably 13 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 3: doing the right thing here. 14 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 4: Politically, that's right, And that's why, you know, I think 15 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 4: he and his team decided that he didn't make sense 16 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 4: for him to go. We do know that they weighed, 17 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 4: you know, the pros and cons, and simply the reality 18 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 4: is this, he believes he won many of the supporters do. 19 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 4: Is that poll shows and if he to show up, 20 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 4: the danger to him would be greater than not showing up, 21 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 4: because with a pole margin this big. Even if somebody 22 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 4: does have a really good showing on Wednesday night, it's 23 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 4: unlikely they're going to close this kind of polling gap, 24 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 4: whether it's the state poles like Iowa, New Hampshire or 25 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 4: the national polls. And if they do, he's got plans 26 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 4: to turn himself in Thursday and sort of take the 27 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 4: oxygen out of any sort of you know, running room 28 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 4: they get, so they don't feel like there's much of 29 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 4: a loss from him skipping this. We know he always 30 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 4: intended to skip the second Republican debate because of the location, 31 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 4: and we he's indicated he may not attend any of them. 32 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 4: So this is you know, he's running as if he 33 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 4: is president, and his supporters believe, many of his supporters 34 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 4: believe he should be. 35 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 3: Well, let's think about everybody else on that stage for 36 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 3: a moment, John, because if fifty one percent of the 37 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 3: people watching them, people you're trying to win over in 38 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 3: Iowa believe that Donald Trump is actually the president or 39 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 3: one somehow the election in twenty twenty, that's going to 40 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 3: that's going to dictate your posture, your messaging that night, 41 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 3: because you can't disagree with them and win them over. 42 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 5: Can you, it's going to be a very great challenge 43 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 5: for many of the Republican candidates. I expect Brett Baer 44 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 5: and Martha McCallum to ask that type of a question. Yeah, 45 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 5: and you may even have a Chris Christy who prides 46 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 5: himself on being the anti Trump. It's really the only 47 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 5: reason he's in this campaign to begin with. He has 48 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 5: no real shot at winning the primary, and he's stuck 49 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 5: at three percent, but he'll probably take on some of 50 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 5: the other Republicans and try to take them down a 51 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 5: few notches and defy them to defend Trump in terms 52 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 5: of his perspective on whether or not he won or lost. 53 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 5: To the Iowa numbers, though, Joe, I wouldn't be surprised 54 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 5: if you see similar, if not greater numbers in other 55 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 5: states among GOP voters. So let's not be surprised that 56 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 5: the majority of Republicans believe that Donald Trump either had 57 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 5: the election stolen from him or that it was a 58 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 5: rigged election. So I think that's going to be a 59 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 5: firmament in Republican primaries in the weeks ahead. Let me 60 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 5: also offer this thought. A My guess is that Trump 61 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 5: may decide he's not going to waste his time with 62 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 5: an Asa Hutchinson or a Francis Suarez or other one 63 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 5: percent opponents taking shots at him. But maybe by the 64 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 5: third or fourth debate, if there were three, four or 65 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 5: five candidates standing, he may decide to knock them out 66 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 5: at that time. And one more thing, if I might, 67 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 5: just the way Donald Trump feels that his numbers are 68 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 5: so strong, he doesn't need to take all of these 69 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 5: hits them, all of these lesser candidates. Look at Joe Biden. 70 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 5: I mean, Joe Biden is I think he's got the 71 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 5: support of seventy percent of Democratic voters. 72 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 3: But Robert F. 73 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 5: Kennedy Junior is polling at around twelve to fourteen percent, 74 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 5: sort of ron descent is territory. And Marian Williamson is 75 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 5: polling at around six percent, well above Chris Christy, who's 76 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 5: on new shows across America, and above most of the 77 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 5: Republican candidates. And yet there's no calls for Biden to 78 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 5: debate Kennedy and Williamson. So an interesting dynamic there between 79 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 5: the two parties. 80 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 3: Boy, and I don't think that's going to be happening 81 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 3: anytime soon. Should an incumbent have to do such a 82 00:03:59,080 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 3: thing Genie. 83 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 4: You know, I am in favor of debates, and so 84 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 4: I would love to see everybody who has a shot debate, 85 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 4: and I'd also love to see people who are low 86 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 4: in the polls debate because quite frankly, as voters, we 87 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 4: can't decide who we want to support if we don't 88 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 4: get to see them in action. So I am in 89 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 4: favor of it, but it is not something we usually 90 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 4: see with incumbents. And I would also just remind everybody that, 91 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 4: you know, the reality for Trump is this, the more 92 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 4: people in this race is are better for Trump, and 93 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 4: so he is going to want to keep all of 94 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 4: these people in this race. He's even if you look 95 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 4: at the Iowa Coccus poll, you know, the persuadables are 96 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 4: just over fifty percent, which we may say, oh that's great, 97 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,239 Speaker 4: they're open to somebody besides Trump, But he has twenty 98 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 4: seven percent of those people. So if you can't consolidate 99 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 4: the never trumpers, he's going to win even if he 100 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 4: has a thirty thirty five percent base, and he's probably 101 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 4: got a little higher. So for him, the more people 102 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 4: out there, the better. This all works to his advantage. 103 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 4: The way it is playing out at this point. 104 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 3: We're spending time with our panel, Genie Schanzano and John 105 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 3: si Laitis. I want to ask you about some of 106 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 3: the messaging the posturing that we're hearing now on this 107 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 3: eve of the debate, and I love both of your reactions. 108 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: Here. 109 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 3: Ron de Santis is upping the ante. It seems like 110 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 3: on a daily basis etging closer to real attacks on 111 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 3: Donald Trump, but also just the tough guy routine. Everybody's 112 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 3: apparently out toffing each other on this stage. Here HEAs 113 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 3: in Iowa es to. 114 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 6: When they try, if they try to bring the fence 115 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 6: and all across the southern border, when I am president, 116 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 6: we are gonna shoot him stone cold dead. 117 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: All right. 118 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 3: I guess that's a winning line. Was that really though? 119 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 3: I mean, that's gonna be What do you think, Johnthan, 120 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 3: is that a winning policy that we're gonna I guess 121 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 3: he was talking about Mexican drug cartels, but we'll just 122 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 3: shoot people from across the river as they're coming in. 123 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 5: I don't know what exactly, or is that just tough 124 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 5: guy talk ahead of the debate. Well, but a lot 125 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 5: of Republicans would like to hear tough guy talk about 126 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 5: border secure it's one of the most important issues for 127 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 5: Republican voters. They feel that the economy is failing, that 128 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 5: our cities are running rampant with criminal activity. 129 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 3: We have a lot of promises like this though, and 130 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 3: no real pos right. 131 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 5: But it's also why Donald Trump, I think, just put 132 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 5: out a Twitter message or part of the truth social 133 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 5: Trump's first term we destroyed isis Trump's second term, we 134 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 5: destroy the Mexican cartels. So it is going to resonate 135 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 5: with a large number of voters. And again, you know, 136 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 5: to the degree that candidates keep messaging simple and leave 137 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 5: the details till later. But I think it is going 138 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 5: to be a positive outcome, hopefully from the debates tomorrow, 139 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 5: that we're not only looking at sort of the thunderdome 140 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 5: aspect of all of this, but there's actual policy debates 141 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 5: and to help Republican voters, and for that matter, Democrats 142 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 5: and independents talk about the issues that really matter to 143 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 5: everyday Americans in ways that I think getting caught up 144 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:52,600 Speaker 5: in the polling and the horse race. 145 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:59,239 Speaker 3: Yes, eludes us absolutely, and I know you're speaking truth there, Genie. 146 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 3: I'll give you a chants with what we heard last 147 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 3: night from the veg Ramaswami on CNN defending comments that 148 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: he's made about some sort of conspiracy around nine to eleven, 149 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 3: never mind January sixth. I mean, that's something if you're 150 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 3: going to bite that off both of those in one sentence. 151 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 7: Here he is Saudi Arabia. Absolutely their intelligence was involved 152 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 7: in nine to eleven, and that's a difficult thing. You're 153 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 7: not supposed to say the facts back that up. Separately 154 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 7: as it relates to January sixth, same story all over again. 155 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 7: There were federal agents in the field. I think they've 156 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 7: lied about how many there were. And we the people 157 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 7: deserve the truth despite the layers of distortion that exist 158 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 7: in the media. 159 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: To prevent us from getting the layers of distortion in 160 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 3: the media, how about conspiracy on the debate stage. 161 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 4: Genie, it's something that sells with this primary, with this 162 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 4: Republican primary voters, and so he is really reflecting something 163 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 4: that is out there. And you know, you just listen 164 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 4: to the difference between that and the and what you 165 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 4: played the clip from Dysantis. DeSantis can talk about shooting people, 166 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 4: and you know the reality is DeSantis cannot find the message. 167 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 4: It doesn't sound authentic when he tries this tough guy act. 168 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 4: And when Vivek Ramaswami does, people do listen. His poll 169 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 4: numbers have been really impressive. He is very good on 170 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 4: the stump. And you know, it may sound crazy some 171 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 4: of these conspiracy theories, but they do resonate with some 172 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 4: of these voters. 173 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 3: I only have a minute left here, John, before a 174 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 3: news update. Is is it smart politics to be talking about, 175 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 3: you know, black helicopters and tinfoil hats like this? Maybe 176 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 3: you agree with what he said, but if we're talking 177 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 3: about federal agents in nine to eleven being an inside job, 178 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 3: is that serious? 179 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 5: Well, that's not what I heard, Joe. Now, he did 180 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 5: talk about what came out in the nine to eleven commission, 181 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 5: but was on the surface and didn't go much deeper 182 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 5: than that. But there is a sense that the Saudi 183 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 5: Kingdom and the royal family did enjoy certain benefits, including 184 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 5: private jets to get their people out of the United 185 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 5: States while we shut down the entire more. 186 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: Because he talks about how the federal agents on that 187 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 3: plane and this was the much. 188 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 5: Of this was, don't I don't have the exact sentence, 189 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 5: and I want to be careful that we don't take 190 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 5: things out of context, but I think that was where 191 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 5: he was going with the nine to eleven commissioner in 192 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 5: January sixth. There are a large number of Republican voters 193 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 5: who would like questions coming out of the House Committee 194 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 5: that it's investigating what took place on January sixth, to 195 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 5: the degree that they may have been federal agents that 196 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 5: have been obfuscated in a lot of the reports over 197 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 5: the last three years. So to Jeanie's point, yes, many 198 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 5: Republicans believe we don't have all the facts, and the 199 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 5: profound mistrust in national media by Republican voters is going 200 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 5: to be an important issue for Republican candidates to address 201 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 5: tonight and in future debates. 202 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: Do you better believe it, We're going to hear a 203 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 3: lot about it. I have no doubt. Jeanie Schanzano is 204 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 3: with us, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor today John sidaliities 205 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 3: joins as well partner at Trilogy Advisors. John even watching 206 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 3: this relationship unfold or maybe fall apart for some time now, 207 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 3: since before Joe Biden got into the White House. What 208 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 3: do these excursions do for us as we're trying to 209 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 3: keep high technology out of the hands of the Chinese 210 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 3: trying to limit investment in what's the point of the 211 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 3: Commerce secretary here to make everybody feel good or to 212 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 3: create a new path forward. 213 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 5: Let's talk about what's working first, and I think the 214 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 5: Biden administration deserves credit for upping the Trump sanctions and 215 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 5: export controls on advanced technologies such as the most advanced semiconductors, 216 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 5: on artificial intelligence, on quantum computing. We're not going to 217 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 5: help China try to take the dominant lead on these 218 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 5: technologies that will be the most important of the twenty 219 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 5: first century global economy without stiff competition from our own 220 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 5: American innovators and dynamic companies. I think it's going to 221 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 5: be very important that Rimando Secretary Ramondo sends the message 222 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 5: to Beijing that de risking will continue, that we are 223 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 5: going to protect the import of military parts that are 224 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 5: most essential for our national security. As I mentioned before, 225 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 5: the frontier technologies that will dominate the economy and the 226 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 5: years ahead. We're looking at health products and pharmaceuticals that 227 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 5: we learned during the COVID lockdowns we were dependent on 228 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 5: China for, and also a number of the rare earth 229 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 5: metals and elements that are so important for the products 230 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 5: that sustain our way of life. But by the same token, 231 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 5: can we continue to buy t shirts and furniture and 232 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 5: electronics from China? Sure, we want to continue to sell 233 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 5: our agricultural products to help feed the Chinese people. So 234 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 5: I think that level of interdependence can be sustained while 235 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 5: we protect our national security and our economic well being. 236 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 5: I think the one thing that we have to be 237 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 5: careful about, Joe, is that the President says diplomacy is 238 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 5: a good thing, and by and large, it is a 239 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 5: good thing for its own sake, But we have to 240 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 5: be careful to not be seen as supplicants that we're 241 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 5: always begging for meetings with Chinese leaders, and we don't 242 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 5: seem to see any news coverage of Chinese leaders begging 243 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 5: to meet their American counterparts. It seems to be a 244 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 5: one way street so far. We'll see what happens if 245 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 5: President Biden and Chairman she meet in November. But maybe 246 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 5: this is the preparation for what could be some type 247 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 5: of a breakthrough. I don't see it right now. 248 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 3: That's the question, Geenie. Is this the meeting that could 249 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 3: lead to the summit, or at least the conversation between 250 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 3: the two presidents. 251 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 4: You know, I think we are all still hoping that 252 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 4: there is a conversation, whether that occurs, you know, in 253 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 4: the US in San Francisco, whether it occurs on the 254 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,119 Speaker 4: sidelines in New Delhi of the G twenty. The reality 255 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 4: is these high level visits that we keep seeing, and 256 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 4: you just listed the ones that have occurred since June, 257 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 4: they haven't yielded as much as some people would have hoped. 258 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 4: Although I am of the opinion that the more conversation 259 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 4: the better, so I don't see a problem with that. 260 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 4: But I think as we look just at our own 261 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 4: domestic politics, the Biden administration is getting a lot of 262 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 4: pressure from Congress, particularly the Hawks and Congress who want 263 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 4: to take a harder line, and they are sinnd of 264 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 4: walking this tightrope, and it's going to continue, and during 265 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 4: an election year, it is going to be very very 266 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 4: hard for them to move against that pressure that they're 267 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 4: hearing out of Washington and out of Congress and Republicans 268 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 4: in particular. So it's something to be mindful of as 269 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 4: we move forward towards the election. 270 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 3: I'll tell you, in the last week or two, the 271 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 3: most underreported story was this summit at Camp David. At least, 272 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 3: I would argue Joe Biden's bike ride that he took 273 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 3: on vacation last week got more attention than this summit 274 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 3: with Japan and South Korea at Camp David, and I wonder, 275 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 3: obviously this is with China in mind, John, the impact 276 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 3: that this is having as Beijing now considers canceling a 277 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 3: three way summit that it was planning with Japan and 278 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 3: South Korea. 279 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 5: Well, China only needs to look inwardly for the blame 280 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 5: for all of this. I think this would have been 281 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 5: a very difficult trilateral partnership to put together in say 282 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 5: twenty fourteen twenty fifteen. Japan and South Korea, however nervous 283 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 5: they are about China's economic rise, did not feel as 284 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 5: intimidated security wise and militarily as they have over the 285 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 5: last five to seven years. 286 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 3: Does the administration deserve credit for bringing them to the 287 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 3: other Is this meaningful? 288 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 5: I think it's a very positive step, absolutely, and I 289 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 5: think it reinforces the defense relationships that we've already had 290 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 5: with Japan and with South Korea. Keep in mind, we 291 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 5: don't need a formal NATO type alliance in Asia, right, 292 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 5: we already have twenty eight thousand troops in South Korea 293 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 5: fifty thousand troops in Japan. So our American forces are 294 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 5: trip wires. If they're attacked because of any external attack 295 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 5: on South Korea or Japan, we're going to war, simple 296 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 5: as that. But what you have for the first time 297 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 5: is Japan and South Korea coordinating their defense, intelligence sharing, 298 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 5: and the like because of the historic enmity between these 299 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 5: two peoples over the past century. So I think the 300 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 5: Biden administration deserves credit for bringing them together and the 301 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 5: three countries together, signaling to China and also to countries 302 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 5: in Southeast Asia that there are alternatives to China's very belligerent, 303 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 5: if not outright hostile behavior towards almost every one of 304 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 5: its Asian neighbors over the last ten years under Shareman Chep. 305 00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 3: It's really something, Genie. You're getting back to where we 306 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 3: start with Gina Romando. This is not going to be 307 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 3: an easy meeting. She might actually have the hardest job 308 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 3: of any cabinet officials gone over there, with the exception 309 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 3: of Anthony Blincoln. 310 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 4: She absolutely will. I think this is going to be 311 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 4: very tough. She has a lot on her plate, and 312 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 4: she is feeling pressures all around. Let's not forget it 313 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 4: wasn't that long ago that we heard Janet Yellen talk 314 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 4: about the impact of the economic slowdown in China in 315 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 4: the US. And to your point about the coverage of 316 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 4: that meeting at Camp David, those arguments are really difficult 317 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 4: to make because they don't resonate with Americans in particular, 318 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 4: especially during an election year. And so all of these visits, 319 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 4: as important as they are, and these meetings, you know, 320 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 4: the administration doesn't get the credit they deserve for them, 321 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 4: and when they get the blame when the economy slows down, 322 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 4: they will feel that. 323 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 3: Boy Tini Shanzano, Johnson Ledis are panel today on Bloomberg 324 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, wondering always why 325 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: modern presidents don't use Camp David more often. It's one 326 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 3: of the best assets they have. But I digressed. This 327 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 3: is Bloomberg. 328 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 329 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 330 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 331 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 332 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 333 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 3: The F sixteen's are apparently coming though there's two of 334 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 3: the Netherlands now that we learned about in just the 335 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 3: past couple of days, but those won't be ready to 336 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 3: fly for months. And so, boy, you start thinking about 337 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 3: all of this and the conversations that we had months 338 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 3: ago with Kelly Grico, and you wonder exactly how this 339 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 3: is all going to pan out. The senior fellow Stimpson 340 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 3: Center's re imaging US Grand Strategy Programs with us in studio, 341 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 3: Kelly Greco, It's great to see you. Thanks for this 342 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 3: year in the bureau. Absolutely you didn't see the F 343 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 3: sixteen is being needed, not necessarily the most effective weapon 344 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 3: in this fight. Fast forward a couple of months, here 345 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 3: we are. I'm assuming you still feel the same way 346 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 3: because these lines haven't really budged in that period of time. 347 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 8: No, And I think if we look at the counter 348 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,719 Speaker 8: offensive and we're trying to diagnose the problem, it's easy 349 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 8: to point to the lack of air power and the 350 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:21,959 Speaker 8: lack of F sixteen is that's sort of, you know, 351 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 8: an easy thing to blame. But when you actually look 352 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 8: at what we know about the battle history. It seems 353 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 8: to be more about the inability of the Ukrainians to 354 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 8: have mastered combined arms warfare. And what I mean by 355 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 8: that is, in order to overcome all these defensive fortifications 356 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 8: the Russians have, what you need to be able to 357 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 8: do is to combine artillery with armor with infantry almost 358 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 8: near simultaneously rather than sequentially. And that takes a lot 359 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 8: to do that, and you're doing that under fire and 360 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 8: that kind of coordination, and what we've seen is that 361 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 8: they're not really able to do that under fire. That 362 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 8: it's a really big ask for a military to learn 363 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 8: to do that mid war. 364 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 9: Okay, so it's an operational issue, not a specific weapons issue, correct. 365 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 8: I think that's exactly right. I think you know, in 366 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 8: the West, we love technology and we're always looking for 367 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 8: sort of technological silver bullets, and we've seen, you know, 368 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 8: throughout the war people turn to these, you know, whether 369 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 8: it was High Mars or Western tanks or now you 370 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 8: know this F sixteen debate. And at the end of 371 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 8: the day, it's actually technology can only get you so far. 372 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 8: It's your ability to be able to use it and 373 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 8: combine technologies in a way that is really allows you 374 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 8: to overcome defensive power and be able to take territory. 375 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 8: And at the end of the day, I'll also say, 376 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 8: armies take territory, not your forces. 377 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 3: How about that Washington Post reporting the end of last 378 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 3: week the US Intelligence community assessing Ukraine's counter offensive will 379 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 3: fail to reach the key southeastern city of melotsopel of finding. 380 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 3: Should it prove to be correct, the Post rights would 381 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 3: mean Key will not fulfill its principal objective of severings 382 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 3: Russia's land bridge to Crimea. With that said, has the 383 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 3: counter offensive been lost? What's the decision that needs to 384 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 3: be made here? 385 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 8: Well, you know, I will just say that I think 386 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 8: that as an objective was always very ambitious, and I 387 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 8: think one of the things that has happened is that 388 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 8: last fall the Ukrainians conducted a counter offensive and they 389 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 8: were able to take back large swaths of territory. And 390 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 8: I almost think it created sort of a false optimism 391 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 8: because at that time the Russian Army was at its 392 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 8: absolute weakest point, and the Ukrainians, to their credit, really 393 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 8: seized that moment of vulnerability and exploited it to the full. 394 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 8: And what they're facing in this counter offensive is just 395 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 8: a completely different enemy. One that's dug in and hardened. 396 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 8: And so the idea that they were going to be 397 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,719 Speaker 8: able to really punch through, break through the line and 398 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 8: take large amounts of territory and get to that objective 399 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 8: I think was always very ambitious, and so you know, 400 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,719 Speaker 8: I hate to call it a failure because in some 401 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 8: sense it has allowed an opportunity for the Ukrainians, for 402 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 8: the Western supporters as well, to maybe become a little 403 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 8: bit more realistic about what the balance of power might 404 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 8: look like on you. 405 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 3: You know, what we were told though, Kaylee, leading up 406 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 3: to this is that they're empty in jails, they don't 407 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 3: even have These aren't even real soldiers. There are a 408 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 3: bunch of drunks out there. This is an opportunity for 409 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,479 Speaker 3: Ukraine to take ground. And you just wonder how credible 410 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 3: a lot of those analysts were. 411 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 9: Oh totally. And the question that then follows is if 412 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 9: expectations were too high for this specific counter offensive, what 413 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 9: about expectation at all for Ukraine to be able to 414 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,199 Speaker 9: win this war? I mean, what endgame realistically are we 415 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 9: looking at here? If they can't find success in this. 416 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 8: Well, I think again we had asked what does it 417 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 8: mean by win? Because in some sense, you could say 418 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 8: that they've already won in one way because they denied 419 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 8: Russia its main objective in this war, which was the 420 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 8: top of the government and capture Kia. 421 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 3: And that's more than a moral victory. That's real. 422 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 8: That's real, and you know, most people didn't think they 423 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 8: stood a chance, you know, at the start of the war. 424 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 8: They've also managed to take back a lot of territory 425 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 8: from the Russians. Those are real accomplishments. I think what 426 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 8: we're seeing is most wars don't like World War Two, 427 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 8: where one side is completely victorious on the battlefield and 428 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 8: the others, you know, unconditional surrender. What we're seeing is 429 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 8: what most wars actually look like, and that they're messier, 430 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 8: and that is probably gonna end up at some negotiating 431 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 8: table and they're going to be arguing over pieces of 432 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,440 Speaker 8: territory and exchanging pieces of territory and where the lines 433 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 8: are going to be drawn. 434 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 3: That could be in a month and a year or more. 435 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 3: But we have to figure out funding in the meantime here, 436 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 3: and that's going to be a pretty ugly debate. It's 437 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 3: looking like as we hear from all sides, won't even 438 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 3: say both because I think there are some folks kind 439 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 3: of caught in the middle on this, from the not 440 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 3: another dollar to you know, as long as it takes 441 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 3: on the other side with Joe Biden. If there is 442 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 3: not a sense though that victory is at hand or 443 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 3: even possible, how long can the administration keep this going? 444 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 8: Yes, And I think this actually weighs very heavily on 445 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 8: the Ukrainians as well, because they're aware of this dynamic. 446 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 2: You know. 447 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 8: I think what you will start to see, you know, 448 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 8: if we don't see more progress with this controfensive is 449 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 8: over the next share, more talk about what a settlement 450 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 8: like look like, and more pressure perhaps on the Ukrainian 451 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 8: It's not just coming from the Americans, but also for 452 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 8: a Western European alibis as well about really starting to 453 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 8: think seriously about negotiations and how to provide some kind 454 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 8: of security guarantees to Ukraine, you know, not necessary NATO membership, 455 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 8: but maybe you know, the Israeli model has often talked 456 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 8: about to sweeten that deal so that they're willing to 457 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 8: accept it. So I think the pressure's really going to 458 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 8: build and us to master politics, I think is going 459 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 8: to be a big factor in that. 460 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 9: Okay, so if we're talking about potential de escalation if 461 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 9: you will in the future, when so much to this 462 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 9: point of the allies of the US's action has been 463 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 9: keeping in mind that they don't want to escalate things further. 464 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 9: Hence the hesitation to even deliver F sixteens in the 465 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 9: first place, or any other list of weaponry and tanks 466 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 9: for example, that they hesitated on for a really long 467 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 9: time before finally doing so. Is there anything else that 468 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 9: could be left to give that could be seen as escalatory? 469 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm laughing because I just read something today where 470 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 8: you know, the F sixteens are you know, going to 471 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 8: be coming eventually to Ukraine. And then I think it's 472 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 8: also significant they're coming from the Netherlents in Denmark. They're 473 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 8: not coming from the United States, so it's like one, 474 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 8: you know, step removed from US. But I've read something 475 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 8: where someone was saying, well, now they need cruise missiles. 476 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 3: Uh, so not sure that's going to. 477 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 8: Happen right exactly. 478 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 7: You know. 479 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 3: Again, so there's always nothing layer. 480 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 8: Yes, you've heard a Tacklem's brought up. There's always going 481 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 8: to be some other system. The F sixteens if they 482 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 8: don't work, and you know, can't deal with the air defenses. 483 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,400 Speaker 8: We're going to start hearing about F thirty Five's probably so. 484 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 8: But again, it's not a technology problem or real lack 485 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 8: of capability. It's about trying to master something that's so difficult, 486 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 8: which is how to combine all of that in a 487 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,360 Speaker 8: way that can overcome defensive fortifications. 488 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 3: So we've isolated a strategic problem also a political one. 489 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 3: What happens if we're heading into a Trump administration. Does 490 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 3: this administration start to work against the clock? 491 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 8: Yes, I mean I think that, Yes, I think that 492 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 8: is is a rail. You know, I think that happens 493 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 8: with this administration. I think it happens with Europe, and 494 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 8: it's a kind of support it's been providing for Ukraine 495 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 8: and trying to figure out, maybe rather rapidly, how it 496 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 8: can shift some of that over. It's going to put 497 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 8: a lot of pressure, I think, on the administration and 498 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 8: on Zolenski himself to try to perhaps come to a deal, 499 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 8: but a't the same time, Putin's going to be aware 500 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 8: of these factors and he may not want to negotiate 501 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,120 Speaker 8: under those circumstances. 502 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 3: Thinking exactly right, I thought Trump would have that done 503 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 3: in twenty four hours. 504 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 9: That's what he said. Right one day after he takes 505 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 9: the Oval office back, all of this would be over. 506 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 9: So he says, So to come back to the idea 507 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 9: that no one technology is going to fix this. This 508 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,120 Speaker 9: is really about the operations of the Ukrainian military, their 509 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 9: ability to fire and all these different soilators at once. Essentially, 510 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 9: So is this a training question for Western allies? Is 511 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 9: that really what we should be focusing on? I mean, 512 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 9: how can aid in that effort? 513 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 8: Well, that's a really great question because it raises I 514 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,199 Speaker 8: think like two different approaches, which is one, should we 515 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,400 Speaker 8: be training them more in our Western way of war, 516 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 8: which is this combined armed warfare approach, which is what 517 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 8: we did over the winter when there were forces in 518 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 8: Ukraine that went to Germany and the United Kingdom And 519 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 8: three months was clearly, you know, maybe not long enough, 520 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 8: particularly because they're a way accustomed to an old way 521 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 8: of warfare, so it's almost like you have to unlearn 522 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 8: a bad habits and then learn a new way. The 523 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,639 Speaker 8: other question, though, I think the other approach is should 524 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 8: we actually not be encouraging them to fight a Western way? 525 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 8: They have a way of warfare that works for them 526 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 8: and should we be allowing them to use their own 527 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 8: tactics it's what they know best, and supporting it with 528 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 8: capability in that way. 529 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 3: Wait, you know, you talk about the idea of a settlement, 530 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 3: I'm assuming that if that were to take place right now, 531 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 3: it would be crime in parts of the Dunboss that 532 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,680 Speaker 3: go to Russia. That said, though, I want to get 533 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 3: back to something you mentioned earlier Kiev, the rest of 534 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 3: the country still standing, while flattened in many cases from 535 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 3: these horrible attacks, but also NATO not still intact, but 536 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 3: having been expanded in a way that nobody could have 537 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 3: seen and likely would not have happened without this war 538 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:17,280 Speaker 3: taking place. That actually still sounds like victory for the 539 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 3: quote unquote West, I. 540 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 8: Mean, certainly. I mean the first thing I would say 541 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 8: was a success is the Russian military has been really degraded. 542 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 8: You know, I was never one who really believed Russia's 543 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 8: opposed a very significant military conventional military threat before this 544 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,399 Speaker 8: war to NATO, and even more so now it's going 545 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 8: to take them, you know, at least ten years, if 546 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 8: not longer, to recover from this. And so you know, 547 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 8: the Russian threat is being degraded, and unfortunately is being 548 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 8: degraded at the cost of Ukrainian lives, blood treasure. 549 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 9: Yeah, so, I guess it was probably initially, as you 550 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 9: were talking about, you know, at the beginning of this war, 551 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 9: we all thought Kiev was going to fall eminently, very 552 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 9: shortly four days and it may have been a matter 553 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 9: of not just underestimating the Ukrainian forces, but also overestimating 554 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 9: the Russian ones. 555 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 8: Yes, the combination. And you know, one of the things 556 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 8: about the fact the Russians are degraded is that it 557 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,199 Speaker 8: makes it a much more manageable problem for our NATO allies, 558 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 8: our EUROPEANATO allies to step up and take more responsibility 559 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 8: for their defense and security that they don't necessarily need, 560 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 8: you know, as much direct American support in Europe, which 561 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 8: would allow us to shift resources attention to the Indo Pacific, 562 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 8: where we're more concerned about the China threat. 563 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,679 Speaker 3: Great conversation, Kelly, I'm to light that you come in 564 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 3: to talk to us. With all of that said, let's 565 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 3: say they finally get the F sixteen six months down 566 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 3: the road post settlement, is it easier for Ukraine to 567 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 3: defend itself with an air force that has F sixteens? 568 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 3: Is that a long term gain. 569 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 8: Well, I would just say, first of all, I actually 570 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 8: don't think it will be six months. I know Ukraine 571 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 8: is saying that. I think it's going to be at 572 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 8: least a year, all right, just based on some things 573 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 8: that General Hecker said and pretty. 574 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 3: Tough fighter jets. Though when the time comes, maybe. 575 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 8: It will be useful for creating a new Ukrainian Air Force. 576 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 3: Kelly greek So, senior fellow the Stimpson Center. Great to 577 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 3: have you with us. I'm Joe Matthew with Kayleie Lines. 578 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:06,159 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg. 579 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 580 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 581 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 582 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,120 Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 583 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 3: Let's talk to Joel Rosenblatt about the recovery a bit here, 584 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 3: because look, the the number of uninsured people, the number 585 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 3: of homeowners who have nothing, it's just unclear how exactly 586 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 3: this is going to play out for them. The federal 587 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 3: government may be offering help, but so far seven hundred 588 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 3: dollars checks are a bit short of what people are 589 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 3: going to need. So there's a question about this strategy 590 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 3: that actually pushed PG and E stock down, and Hawaiian 591 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 3: Electric stock was down like fifty eight percent the end 592 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 3: of last week. On the strategy that property owners may use. 593 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 3: Here illegal shortcut that was used by fire victims in 594 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 3: California to secure compensation, and Joel is writing about this. 595 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 3: Joel Rosenblatt is Bloomberg's legal reporter in with us now 596 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 3: on sound on Joel, it's great to have you can 597 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 3: describe how the strategy works. 598 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 10: I sure. The strategy is known as inverse condemnation, which 599 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 10: is kind of a complicated term that's actually rooted in 600 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 10: a rather basic and simple principle of eminent domain, which 601 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 10: is maybe more familiar to everybody listening, which is the 602 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 10: power of the government to take private property for public 603 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 10: infrastructure and in return compensate the owner. Another expression for 604 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 10: that is the property being condemned, and inverse condemnation is 605 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 10: kind of is the inverse of that. It's property owners 606 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 10: suing a government agency to recover damages to property that 607 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 10: was accidental. 608 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 9: Usually, but je does it first need to be proved 609 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,959 Speaker 9: that it was Hawaiian electric equipment that contributed to these fires. 610 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 9: I just wonder, you know, if that's kind of step 611 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 9: one that needs to be established first, or they can 612 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 9: pursue the strategy even an absence of that. 613 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 10: Well, great question, because that's the great advantage of inverse 614 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 10: condemnation is that you don't you don't have to prove 615 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 10: that the company was negligent at all. You do have 616 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 10: to prove you do have to show that that the 617 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 10: company's equipment was the source of the fire. But that's 618 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 10: that's in many cases, in a surprisingly number of cases, 619 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 10: not that difficult to show. What's more difficult to show 620 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 10: is that there was a there was negligence, that the 621 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,400 Speaker 10: company was actually negligent. That's a that's illegal fight that 622 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 10: can take years, and inverse condemnation side steps that fight. 623 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 10: You don't have to prove that the company's negligent, just 624 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 10: that the company's equipment was the source of the fire. 625 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 3: This ended in a third thirteen zero point five billion 626 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 3: dollars settlement in California in twenty twenty. Joel, do we 627 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 3: know how long residents have to make this plan or 628 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 3: to decide which course to take. 629 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 10: Well, it's really it's really you don't have to It's 630 00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 10: not one or the others. So the lawsuits that have 631 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 10: been filed against Hawaiian Electric a legend number of different counts, 632 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 10: a number of different claims, not all of them are 633 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 10: pursuing in verse condemnation. So even ones that are pursuing 634 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 10: wrongful death or other claims of negligence, have some have 635 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 10: added in verse condemnation and others have not. There's a 636 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 10: there's not a history of inverse condemnation in Hawaii in 637 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 10: the wildfire context at all. So Hawaiian courts are going 638 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 10: to have to consider, you know, consider that claim, and 639 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 10: I think it's likely that they're going to look to 640 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 10: California for for what's happened here in making those decisions. 641 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 9: I wonder how in factoring into an ultimate decision, though, 642 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 9: it would be taken into account that this is the 643 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 9: main utility for Hawaii. It provides power to I believe, 644 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 9: ninety five percent of the state's population. Theoretically, if they 645 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 9: were to be pursued for billions of dollars in potential liabilities, 646 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 9: it could mean its entire existence is in question. Would 647 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 9: that be allowed to happen given its importance as a. 648 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 10: Utility, Well, well, that's a great question, and we're just 649 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 10: going to see what happens there. The same was true 650 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 10: of PG. I mean, PG this utility Hawaiian Electric is 651 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 10: just teeny compared to PGEN in California. But in California, 652 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 10: the damages were just unbelievable, right, I don't know, you know, 653 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 10: if everybody remembers the fire in Paradise that killed more 654 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 10: than eighty five people and many other fires, I mean, 655 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 10: the damage was just overwhelming the company. The claims together, 656 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 10: not just the inverse condemnation claims, but all the claims 657 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 10: together pushed PGN into bankruptcy. And then it was restructured 658 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 10: and the victims, the fire victims were eventually paid out 659 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 10: in this settlement. So I think the same thing could 660 00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 10: happen here. The scale is just different. 661 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,760 Speaker 3: Joe Rosenblatt, Thank you, Joel. Find the story on the 662 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 3: terminal Maui fire lawyers I tactic that got Californian's thirteen 663 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 3: point five billion dollars. Thanks for listening to the Sound 664 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 3: on podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 665 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 666 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 3: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 667 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 3: DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com