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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy? Tuesday?

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Speaker 2: Welcome in to another episode of the Deal Juice Podcast

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Speaker 2: with me Matt Perelt at Sports Talk. Matt to follow

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Speaker 2: me across all socials. After another three and oh sweep,

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Speaker 2: That is three sweeps in the last seven days, three

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Speaker 2: and oh four and oh three and oh over the

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Speaker 2: last seven days, things are going well. Look, this is

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Speaker 2: when I like to remind people about what December was like,

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Speaker 2: because December wasn't good, and like I always say, it

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Speaker 2: always kind of averages out. So when the next time

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Speaker 2: I go ice cold and you're mad, or you hear

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Speaker 2: someone in the comment section, you read someone in the

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Speaker 2: comment section who's whining, you can say, well, Matt went

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Speaker 2: nineteen and seven over a seven day period and he

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Speaker 2: won ten point five units. That's not including the Michigan Future.

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Speaker 2: That's just bets we've done here in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: All right, can you even tell me, well, that's not

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Speaker 2: really accurate because that bet was made in jan August. Well,

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Speaker 2: if you want to add that in, go ahead, add

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Speaker 2: that in and we're up even more. But BET's placed

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four, nineteen and seven over the last

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Speaker 2: seven days, three and oh yesterday, three units yesterday. If

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Speaker 2: you bet Bucks money line, you made even more. I

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Speaker 2: told you to do that.

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Speaker 1: That was even a.

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Speaker 2: Better day for you if you came in on that.

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Speaker 2: So really it was a four and oh day there.

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Speaker 2: Didn't count the money line officially, but if you bet it,

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Speaker 2: a lot of you did, so a lot of you

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Speaker 2: made money there. Ten point five units up in seven

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Speaker 2: days is pretty good, guys. Okay, it's pretty good. It's

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Speaker 2: not going to continue. There's going to be a downside.

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Speaker 2: There's going to be a cold streak. I just like

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Speaker 2: to point it out that there's and there's downs, and

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Speaker 2: let's enjoy the ups, but remember the ups when we're down.

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Speaker 2: When we're up, remember the downs. Stay level is the point.

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Speaker 2: Stay consistent and stay level because right around the corner

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Speaker 2: things could change dramatically. All right, So, really good start

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Speaker 2: to the playoffs for US Bucks. Come in the teaser

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Speaker 2: hits and we get Michigan over Ohio State. Right, there

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Speaker 2: might be something to that trend I pointed out last night.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna test the theory. Got three games in college basketball.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you guys coming up here in just

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Speaker 2: one second. But first and foremost. Well, two things. First

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Speaker 2: have to remind you to download the Betting Pros app.

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Speaker 2: Steaks dot com. All right, let's test this theory out.

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Speaker 2: Let's see how we're gonna do. There are a couple

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Speaker 2: of games, like the Penn State game. I don't feel

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Speaker 2: good about. The Penn State game fits into this. But

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Speaker 2: I don't feel great about Penn State. It's just it's

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Speaker 2: one of those teams that I'm a little concerned about it.

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Speaker 1: You know, their.

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Speaker 2: Football school is playing basketball and I'm not in love

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Speaker 2: with it. Okay, I'm gonna start with Baylor in Kansas State.

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Speaker 2: I told you guys about this in the Discord channel.

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Speaker 2: Numbers plus one and a half for Kansas State. Now,

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Speaker 2: k State has not played well recently. K State lost

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Speaker 2: to Texas Tech in their last game on the road

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Speaker 2: by one sixty to fifty nine. Here they are up

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Speaker 2: against Baylor. Kempom has this as a three point win

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Speaker 2: here for Baylor. However, trend that I have bet now,

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Speaker 2: I'm two and three. I went with it two times

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Speaker 2: in one, went against it three times and lost. But

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Speaker 2: straight up the home team has been five and oh.

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Speaker 2: Conference games, you lose the game prior on the road,

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Speaker 2: you come back at home, you play a conference game

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Speaker 2: at home, and you are a home dog. Five and

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Speaker 2: oh straight up and against the number. Okay, Iowa State

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Speaker 2: did this, Michigan did this yesterday. West Virginia did this.

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Speaker 2: Drake did this.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: These are all the games we have been betting recently,

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Speaker 2: and well we've only gone two and three. But Michigan

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Speaker 2: hit it yesterday. I'm gonna come back here with Baylor

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Speaker 2: in Kansas State. Kansas State has had well at home,

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Speaker 2: They're tough. Baylor on the road is okay, not outstanding.

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Speaker 2: Baylor's the fourth best offense efficiency, second best effective field

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Speaker 2: goal percentage in the country, but Case State's defense thirty

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Speaker 2: first in efficient, in fortieth in effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: Strength on strength.

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Speaker 2: Case State's offense is one hundred and fourth inefficiency, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninety third in field goal percentage versus fifty

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Speaker 2: seventh for Baylor for defensive efficiency, and one hundred and

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Speaker 2: ninth in field goal percentage. Couple of things that need

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Speaker 2: to fall here for us to get this. W KSE

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Speaker 2: State needs to hit their threes. They are not good

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Speaker 2: shooting behind the arc. This season, they are two hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty sixth. However, they're one hundred and twentieth in

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Speaker 2: two point percentage and one hundred and ninety fourth Baylor

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Speaker 2: defensively guarding the two, guarding the three, Baylor's really good.

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Speaker 1: They're twenty ninth in the country.

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Speaker 2: Baylor's offense making threes number one in the country, but

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Speaker 2: Case State's not bad one hundred and twentieth two point defense.

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Speaker 2: Case State's phenomenal, twenty seventh best in the country. So

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Speaker 2: maybe if Baylor's threes aren't falling on the road tonight,

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Speaker 2: we get Kansas State to come on. In free throws

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Speaker 2: for Case State have been pretty good. Baylor as well,

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Speaker 2: pretty good in a tight game. With a one and

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Speaker 2: a half point number, free throws are going to matter

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Speaker 2: here whole atmosphere. Baylor is a team I've watched them.

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Speaker 2: They're kind of jeckleing hide, but they've won five games

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Speaker 2: in a row and they haven't and they played one

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Speaker 2: true road game so far. They beat Oklahoma State seventy

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Speaker 2: five seventy in overtime, and the only other true road

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Speaker 2: game they played Okay Case State. It's a hard place

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Speaker 2: to play. K State plus one and a half for

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Speaker 2: one point one units. By the way, if these number

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Speaker 2: move from like if it goes to one and a

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Speaker 2: half to minus one or minus one and a half,

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Speaker 2: I don't care, because, FYI, it doesn't matter to me.

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Speaker 1: Okay, like that, it's a bucket. It's one bucket.

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Speaker 2: So Michigan went from plus one and a half, it

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Speaker 2: closed up minus one and a half and they won

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Speaker 2: the game by six seven points. So that doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: If it flips, I don't care. It's just where I'm

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Speaker 2: playing it. I'm playing it as a dog and hopefully

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Speaker 2: you guys get the dog number. But if it happens

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Speaker 2: to flip to one and a half to one, if

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Speaker 2: it's under a possession, under two points, I'm okay with it.

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Speaker 2: Next game, Texas A and M up against Arkansas. Arkansas,

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Speaker 2: in their last game against Florida, lost the game on

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Speaker 2: the road ninety to sixty eight.

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Speaker 1: They lost on the road to Georgia.

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Speaker 2: Seventy six to sixty six, and they lost at home

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Speaker 2: to Auburn eighty three to fifty one.

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Speaker 1: Not great.

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Speaker 2: Auburn, though, has had a tremendous start to the year.

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Speaker 2: Auburn is a team we're gonna watch for sure. They're

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Speaker 2: fourth in Kempom at the moment. Here zho to three

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Speaker 2: in the SEC for Arkansas, they are desperate. They're at

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Speaker 2: home against Texas A and M. The number is two

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Speaker 2: and a half Arkansas plus two and a half A

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Speaker 2: and M. According to kempom, it's a two point win.

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Speaker 1: A and M's.

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Speaker 2: Offense is twenty second best in the country. A and

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Speaker 2: M effective field goal percentage, though, is three hundred and thirtieth.

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Speaker 2: They take bad shots. They are three hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: second in three point percentage. They are two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fortieth in two point percentage. They don't really hit their

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Speaker 2: free throat was there? Two hundred and twenty sixth Arkansas Defensively,

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Speaker 2: the metrics are all pointing towards Arkansas being able to

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Speaker 2: slow down A and M. Here it is efficiency top

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Speaker 2: one hundred, top one fourteen, effective field goal percentage, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninety third in three point percentage, eighty seventh

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Speaker 2: in two point percentage. And on the other side, Arkansas

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Speaker 2: should be able to score eighty fifth best in efficiency,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty seventh best in field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: They're not in the threes.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas is not a good three point shooting team, two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifth shooting threes. But the good news is

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Speaker 2: that Arkansas doesn't get a lot of their points from

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Speaker 2: behind the arc. They get fifty one point three percent

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Speaker 2: of their points inside the arc from the two point

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Speaker 2: two point percentage. They're one hundred and ninth in two

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Speaker 2: point percentage this year. On the other side, defensively, A

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Speaker 2: and M gives up threes, so maybe it could be

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Speaker 2: nice for Arkansas here two hundred and eleventh for them

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Speaker 2: in three point defense, sixty first in two point defense

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Speaker 2: is better.

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Speaker 1: But A and M is a team.

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Speaker 2: They beat Kentucky in their last game at home nine

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Speaker 2: deep seven ninety two. They're on a high. They beat Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas backs are against the wall. They really need it.

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Speaker 2: They got to get a w here. And it's funny

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Speaker 2: because the win for A and M against Kentucky that

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Speaker 2: factored in that would have been something we could have

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Speaker 2: played if I had figured this out. They lost to

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Speaker 2: Auburn on the road, they came back home against Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: They were home dogs against Kentucky, and they won the

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Speaker 2: game outright, ninety seven to ninety two. So this game,

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Speaker 2: the game before this game actually factored where we would

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Speaker 2: have taken A and M. Now instead we're fading A

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Speaker 2: and M here, taking the two and a half points

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Speaker 2: Arkansas plus two and a half at home against Texas.

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Speaker 1: A and M.

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Speaker 2: And finally we're going back to the Big twelve. Kansas

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Speaker 2: on the road against Oklahoma State. Now this game, Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: State is a little bit of a tough nut here.

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Speaker 2: They've lost three games in a row. Lost on the

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Speaker 2: road to Iowa State. We faded them in that game.

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Speaker 2: We lost. Oh, I guess I did. I bet against them,

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Speaker 2: but I didn't. I guess it wasn't official. I bet

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Speaker 2: I would stay in that game. They lost ach Texas

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Speaker 2: Tech on the road ninety to seventy three, and they

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Speaker 2: lost to Baylor in their last home game seventy five

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Speaker 2: to seven. Y they've lost three games in a row

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Speaker 2: and they're zero to three in the Big Twelve. Much

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Speaker 2: like Arkansas, Oklahoma State is desperate backs against the wall.

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Speaker 2: They absolutely need a w here up against Kansas. KU

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Speaker 2: beat Oklahoma in their last game at home seventy eight

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Speaker 2: to sixty six. This is a seven point win according

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Speaker 2: to Ken Palm for this matchup, the number is six

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Speaker 2: and a half, so it's a little bit below that,

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Speaker 2: but at six and a half, the offense for Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: State needs help. Okay one hundred and sixty first in

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Speaker 2: efficiency up against the eleventh best efficient defense in college

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Speaker 2: basketball in KU, fifty eighth in field goal percentage offensively

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Speaker 2: for Oklahoma State, twenty eighth best KU in that category

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Speaker 2: for effective field goal defense, but Oklahoma State hits their

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Speaker 2: threes sixty second in three point percentage in college basketball.

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Speaker 2: They get thirty eight percent of their points from behind

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Speaker 2: the arc, and KU is okay at three point defense,

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Speaker 2: not amazing. They're ninety first in the country. Little advantage there.

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Speaker 2: Two point percentage, Oklahoma State is ninetieth defensively, KU is

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Speaker 2: twenty second. On the other side, KU's offense has been okay.

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Speaker 2: Their fortieth in efficiency, twenty six in field goal percentage.

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State is seventy six and seventy second in those categories.

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Speaker 1: Not atrocious.

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Speaker 2: Forty fourth in three point percentage for KU. That's a

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Speaker 2: bit of a worry. One hundred and second Defensively for

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. They're thirty first in two point percentage, But defensively,

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State's not bad in that category either. KU gets

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Speaker 2: to the rim over fifty six percent of their points

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Speaker 2: come from inside the arc from the two point spot.

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Speaker 2: Only eighteen percent of their ship points come from the

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Speaker 2: foul line, however, so they are a jump shooting team here,

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Speaker 2: so it could be make or miss. This is where

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Speaker 2: you need Gallagher Ibo Arena to be just rocking, and

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Speaker 2: it always is when KU comes to town.

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Speaker 1: This game's on the ESPN. I don't know if they

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Speaker 1: so call it.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we used to call it Big Monday, even though

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Speaker 2: it's Tuesday. It feels like it's a Big Monday because

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Speaker 2: it's Tuesday after MLKDA. But this is a monster game

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Speaker 2: for Oklahoma State. They have to have it. Plus six

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Speaker 2: and a half Oklahoma State, they probably don't win the game,

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Speaker 2: but they could keep this game close and maybe they

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Speaker 2: can pull the upset. Given how many upsets we have

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Speaker 2: seen in conference plays so far, it's been remarkable. So again,

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Speaker 2: the trend that I am playing here tonight is team

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Speaker 2: at home who has lost their previous game in a

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Speaker 2: conference setting, coming back home conference sitting on the road,

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Speaker 2: lost the last game on the road in a conference

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Speaker 2: setting to come back home where they are a home dog.

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Speaker 2: K State plus one and a half Arkansas plus two

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Speaker 2: and a half, Oklahoma State plus six and a half,

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Speaker 2: all three for one point one units three point three

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Speaker 2: units in play for us here on a Tuesday minus

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Speaker 2: Matt Paroles. Follow me across all socials at Sports Talk

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Speaker 2: Matt every morning. The Dale Juice podcast I was being

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