Speaker 1: Also media, Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your
Speaker 1: host ed ze trick as ever. Go to the episode
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Speaker 1: premium hotel Mike mmoney, buy a Fun Data Center's T shirt,
Speaker 1: or join one of the assorted communities if you ever
Speaker 1: want to fall further into the larger Zetron verse. But
Speaker 1: today we're joined by the author of More Everything Forever.
Speaker 1: That's right, journalist and astrophysicist Adam Becker. Adam, how you doing?
Speaker 2: I'm doing well? D How are you go?
Speaker 1: On new podcast, don't you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I do. It's called Dreaming Against the Machine and
Speaker 2: it just came out pretty recently.
Speaker 1: What's about, Well.
Speaker 2: It's uh, it's like a more optimistic version of this podcast.
Speaker 1: Okay, No, I like that. I like this. I want
Speaker 1: to hear about that. Tell me yeah.
Speaker 2: So, uh, you know, I spent a lot of time
Speaker 2: when I was writing my book More Everything Forever thinking
Speaker 2: about terrible people and they're bad ideas about the future,
Speaker 2: and that made me want to think more about good
Speaker 2: ideas about the future and people who I actually like.
Speaker 2: And so the podcast is about, you know, trying to
Speaker 2: imagine what a realistic, good future could look like, yeah.
Speaker 1: Could you give me some examples?
Speaker 2: Oh no, I have no idea.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, yeah, still work in that one out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, still figuring that out. I mean that's that's sort
Speaker 2: of the podcast is me thinking out loud about these
Speaker 2: things with different guests each week. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: it's certainly a future where we've found a way to
Speaker 2: wrench power away from these tech billionaires. And it's not
Speaker 2: a future that involves like, you know, space colonization and
Speaker 2: super intelligent AI. But more than that, I'm still figuring
Speaker 2: that out. That's that's what the podcast is for. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I do get a good amount of people who email
Speaker 1: and are like, yeah, well why don't you to do
Speaker 1: you talk about more positive things on the show? A
Speaker 1: it's tough to find them. But but also sometimes when
Speaker 1: I do it, people get mad at me. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: people are like, I don't think that you missed the shill.
Speaker 1: I don't think you mind people being mad at you
Speaker 1: ed I yeah, I don't. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: it's like when I'm like, I mentioned this Nebula X
Speaker 1: one projector thing, I really like, it's quite expensive. It's
Speaker 1: like this insane thing in like a box as a projector.
Speaker 1: It's like, got the speakers you could plug in and
Speaker 1: they're all wireless and it's beautiful. That works every while.
Speaker 1: I talked about that once and I have people email
Speaker 1: me saying, Edge, you're a shill. You're being a shill.
Speaker 1: You can't And it's like, oh my Christ, do I
Speaker 1: have to hate everything? Because there's plenty I do, don't
Speaker 1: get me wrong. Yeah, don't get I feel like you
Speaker 1: get plenty. Yeah, But I feel like there are some
Speaker 1: really good things. Like I feel like if America was
Speaker 1: not under the gustocracy right now, we would be in
Speaker 1: a kind of golden era of solar. Like I have
Speaker 1: solar in my house in Vegas barely pain electricity bot.
Speaker 1: It's kind of magic. It's kind of amazing. Yeah.
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, I mean there's there's a lot of
Speaker 2: great technology, and solar is a really good example. Like
Speaker 2: the solar technology has gotten really great, battery technology has
Speaker 2: gotten really great. I think that these are wonderful things.
Speaker 2: And yeah, if we weren't subsidizing fossil fuels and actually
Speaker 2: thinking clearly about both what is the you know, the
Speaker 2: cheapest and most effective sources of energy and what would
Speaker 2: be best for the climate and the planet. You know,
Speaker 2: I think it would be pretty clear that we'd be
Speaker 2: going through an even faster energy transition than we are already.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't energy also be cheaper if we were a mass
Speaker 1: solar I'm sure someone's gonna hate me for saying that.
Speaker 2: I think that's true. You know, I have to look
Speaker 2: at the numbers, but I mean, solar is I believe
Speaker 2: the cheapest source of energy at the moment has been
Speaker 2: for a bit.
Speaker 1: What if instead we could just have natural gas everywhere,
Speaker 1: which is very cheap, I'm hearing at the moment. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's lots of it. Nothing's happened to the supply. Everyone's fine, Yeah,
Speaker 1: everything's fine.
Speaker 2: Nothing is broken, and we're getting really tired of winning.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Talking of thinking though, But just just before we
Speaker 1: got on like one of the most insane things I
Speaker 1: think I have heard a tech CEO say, and I say,
Speaker 1: this is someone who s heard Alex's carp speak before
Speaker 1: Mark Andreasen's saying he doesn't have introspection.
Speaker 2: Yes, this was kind of my favorite thing that's happened recently,
Speaker 2: you know, right for values of favorite, where I mean
Speaker 2: like horrible and unhinged. But yeah, no, he he said
Speaker 2: that he doesn't introspect, and that introspection was invented in
Speaker 2: the A one hundred years ago by Sigmund Freud, And like, Okay,
Speaker 2: what do you think that? I don't know? Hamlet was
Speaker 2: about what did? All? Right?
Speaker 1: What was Hamlet about? Hamlet was about a guy who
Speaker 1: cried a lot when his life was awesome. Same with Macbeth,
Speaker 1: same deal exactly, Like what does smithsone dream? Drugs?
Speaker 2: But like what does he thinking?
Speaker 1: Shakespeare life on a.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, like all art, like any any any form
Speaker 2: of art pretty much ever created by anyone at any
Speaker 2: point in history. Like why does he believe this? I
Speaker 2: think you know it doesn't think he doesn't he doesn't introspect.
Speaker 1: But what's going on in that magical brain all the time?
Speaker 2: That magical brain, the egg like brain that he hasked.
Speaker 1: The fuck it like to robot nank.
Speaker 2: Yes, Yeah, it's.
Speaker 1: So funny as well, because I don't. I'm constantly introspective
Speaker 1: to the point where I'm like tearing up my own
Speaker 1: theories and things that I've done about again and again
Speaker 1: and again. It's one of the enjoyable things about being human.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: And one's ability to reflect yeah, does kind of make
Speaker 1: sense when you look at all the AI stuff though.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think that for someone like Andreeson,
Speaker 2: he's gotten so wealthy and so powerful, he's not used
Speaker 2: to hearing no, And introspection from that perspective is just
Speaker 2: an opportunity to tell yourself no. And why would he
Speaker 2: ever do that to himself? But you know lllm's definitely
Speaker 2: never introspect. They're not really capable of it. Uh yeah,
Speaker 2: And you know we uh, we've got this chain of
Speaker 2: reasoning stuff that's supposedly like introspection, but it's not. And
Speaker 2: I think that if you don't introspect, that's gonna make
Speaker 2: it so much easier to be fooled into thinks that
Speaker 2: these things are thinking.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And also I like the chain of thought reasoning
Speaker 1: because if you think that's what thinking's like, you must
Speaker 1: not think so hard, yeah, because it's just what is thinking? Well,
Speaker 1: every time I hear literally anything, I think, what would
Speaker 1: they what do they mean by that? One of my
Speaker 1: it's like every single thought you have as a Tucker
Speaker 1: Carlson monologue, what do they mean? What is that?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: What do you mean? How's my day? How's my day
Speaker 1: to day? It's the afternoon, is it like, is it
Speaker 1: just the daytime? Do I care about nighttime?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: Does this person care about me? Do they care about
Speaker 1: my family? What's going on here? Just like in this
Speaker 1: constant state of like confusion, yeah, and then using way
Speaker 1: too much, way too much energy to just go yes, fine, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is fine. I'm alright, you know, yeah, keep yourself busy.
Speaker 1: It's just what I don't get, is what I mean.
Speaker 1: I take that back, Yeah, I actually totally get this.
Speaker 1: But if you're that rich, you have so much more
Speaker 1: time to do so many more interesting things and think
Speaker 1: about them. For example, yeah, you know, just like a
Speaker 1: book or like a song, or at that price, at
Speaker 1: the amount of money that he has, he could just
Speaker 1: be like, I wouldn't mind seeing I don't know, public enemy.
Speaker 1: I bet I could just call all of them and
Speaker 1: pay them all to just do a concert in my
Speaker 1: living room. I don't think Mark Andrews is a big
Speaker 1: public Enemy fan, but just for the sake of examle right, yeah,
Speaker 1: and it's very It gets me back to this thought
Speaker 1: I've had this whole time with the LM era where
Speaker 1: it's like this is just the digital Dunce cap era
Speaker 1: This is when we find out all the people who
Speaker 1: just have not been thinking the entire time, who just
Speaker 1: they all they've been doing is just walk around going
Speaker 1: like money, money, money and growth as it like Facebook is,
Speaker 1: and like he reminds me of Mark Zuckerberg. Give him
Speaker 1: a million dollars. Wait, he needs ten million dollars. Give
Speaker 1: him twenty just in case someone else gives him ten.
Speaker 1: Just this constant state of like anger, great anxiety.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, god, what was it? I saw this
Speaker 2: this LM startup advertising somewhere online that was saying that
Speaker 2: they were, you know, going to do your intellectual labor
Speaker 2: for you, and they were going to do your homework
Speaker 2: for you and stuff like that in school. And I'm like,
Speaker 2: do you know what intellectual labor is? Saying that you're
Speaker 2: gonna do it for me? Because they were saying, then
Speaker 2: you just get to reap the benefits of the intellectual labor.
Speaker 2: And I'm like, okay, saying that you're going to do
Speaker 2: it for me and then I get to reap the benefits.
Speaker 2: It's sort of like saying, you have a robot that's
Speaker 2: going to do pull ups badly, and if I just
Speaker 2: watch it do pull ups badly, then I will somehow
Speaker 2: get stronger. Like that's just not how it works, That's
Speaker 2: not how thinking works.
Speaker 1: What kind of reminds me. I saw this Andre Corpat.
Speaker 1: You remember Andre Corpath, he's the cound one of the
Speaker 1: many co founders of open ai. Yeah, yeah, yeah, And
Speaker 1: he he posted this thing the other day. He was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I was spending hours working on like a private wiki
Speaker 1: for all of his research. Not his research project, but
Speaker 1: stuff he was like looking into strongly. And it's like
Speaker 1: and it's like yeah, and then you can use an
Speaker 1: LLM to ask you questions. It's like why, like just why,
Speaker 1: Like I would get it? If he was, like, to
Speaker 1: be clear, if he was saying, I, as a scientist,
Speaker 1: I'm collecting tons of data and I want to have
Speaker 1: it in a place I can poke at it. Fine,
Speaker 1: it didn't seem like he was suggesting. It's very much
Speaker 1: like just researching the stuff he was looking at on
Speaker 1: like his personal knowledge basis. It's like, what is going
Speaker 1: on in your brain? Mate? What are you thinking about
Speaker 1: all day? It's just like, oh, wouldn't it be great
Speaker 1: if all these thoughts I was having were in a
Speaker 1: wiki format and obsidian I mean on christ oh, So.
Speaker 2: The whole point of a wiki is that anyone can
Speaker 2: edit it. Why does he want anyone to be able
Speaker 2: to edit something that he's using.
Speaker 1: Well, it's not anyone, it's just him. It's just him.
Speaker 1: But it's just his wiki, right, But that's just.
Speaker 2: But that's just a document, that's just like a word
Speaker 2: document that's I don't know this is.
Speaker 1: Now I don't either. And I there was a guy
Speaker 1: underneath there who I'm going to be in a newsletter
Speaker 1: I'm working on today that will actually be out before
Speaker 1: this whatever. Yeah, and there was a guy below benef
Speaker 1: he said, yeah, I'm doing a less professional version of
Speaker 1: this using openclaw. It's like to catalog what great thoughts exactly.
Speaker 1: That's what grand missives from the depths of the brain minds.
Speaker 1: Do you fuck wits have whats going on? Because every
Speaker 1: time I see my new game is too anytime I
Speaker 1: see someone just being like I'm running eleven agents concurrently
Speaker 1: and they're doing this and that, I try and find
Speaker 1: what it is they're working on. I've never been able to.
Speaker 1: Never there are images of like there's like a photo
Speaker 1: of them with like nineteen terminal windows the CC usage
Speaker 1: saying they spend two and a half thousand dollars and
Speaker 1: a one hundred dollar a month subscription. But you can
Speaker 1: never just like look at them, well, oh wow, you're cooking.
Speaker 2: They don't know what they're working on half the time, right,
Speaker 2: They've got one of those processes is like an agent
Speaker 2: where they asked it, oh, come up with ideas.
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, come up with ideas, work on an interface
Speaker 1: an interface series to observe in figma, and then have
Speaker 1: another have another agent look at that and say this
Speaker 1: is the one, and then at the end something will happen.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, can we can we just pause for a
Speaker 2: second the fact that there's something called Figma, Like it's
Speaker 2: just a liigma joke. I don't understand it is. How
Speaker 2: did they do that?
Speaker 1: Yeah? But Figma's kind of use like.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I'm not I'm not saying it's not useful. I'm
Speaker 2: just saying the name.
Speaker 1: Then is having to walk around saying Figma, Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: kind of like having to say Hadop yes, a dupe
Speaker 1: or super bass yeah, Versal's fine. But there are a
Speaker 1: lot of even anthropic is a stupid name. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I like, I think we need to return to an
Speaker 1: era well where we only let Taiwan name our companies
Speaker 1: because look, you got on High Precision Limited. Now there's
Speaker 1: a company name Taimewan Semiconductor manufacturing corporations know exactly what
Speaker 1: they do exactly nothing fancy, don't need to You got Quanta.
Speaker 1: I assume that that's something to do with one of
Speaker 1: their founders. Maybe they named it. If you named it
Speaker 1: before the eighties, it's fine, But like, no more startup names.
Speaker 1: You can't do dot lee and anything fig but nope,
Speaker 1: call it like I don't know, art corporation, dot bits,
Speaker 1: I don't care. Just make this easier for me. But nevertheless,
Speaker 1: it's we were always talk about this before. And there
Speaker 1: is another theory that I'm growing with LLLM as well,
Speaker 1: which is, and I'm specifically leading to the journalists using
Speaker 1: AI one, it kind of feels like all of these
Speaker 1: agentic quote unquote processes are taking up more energy than
Speaker 1: just doing them normally.
Speaker 2: Yep, yeah, I think that's exactly way more. Yeah, because
Speaker 2: like you know, all of this just feels like people
Speaker 2: trying to avoid the hard work of having to think right,
Speaker 2: especially if you're looking at people using this instead, you know,
Speaker 2: as a way of writing. The old saw is that
Speaker 2: writing is thinking, and I also think, you know, I
Speaker 2: mean another old saw is that writing is rewriting, right,
Speaker 2: And so when people say, oh, I'm just using it
Speaker 2: for editing, and like that's part of the writing process.
Speaker 2: If you're using it for editing, you're using it for writing,
Speaker 2: and that's like that's not good.
Speaker 1: This Wired piece is particularly bizarre, Like I don't need
Speaker 1: to think about Kevin Bruce too much, don't thinking. He
Speaker 1: certainly doesn't, and I won't. But Alex he'th Alex Is
Speaker 1: Alex is weird one because he's been around tech journalism
Speaker 1: for fifteen something years. Doesn't seem like a terrible bloke.
Speaker 1: But he describes this process of writing his newsletter that's
Speaker 1: says where he's where he claims he feels like he
Speaker 1: is cheating and he and I quote Max Seth the
Speaker 1: Report of Word. He sat down with me last week
Speaker 1: to showcase how he's integrated anthropics, Claude, code, work, cowork
Speaker 1: even into his journalistic process. The AI tool is connected
Speaker 1: to his Gmail, Google calendar, Granola AI transcription service, and
Speaker 1: notion notes. He also built a detailed skill, a custom
Speaker 1: set of instructions. It's text file to help Claude write
Speaker 1: in his style, including the Ten Commandments of writing. Like
Speaker 1: Alex Heath, the skill includes previous articles he's written, instructions
Speaker 1: and how he likes his newsletters to be structured, and
Speaker 1: notes on his own voice and writing style. Then Claude
Speaker 1: Cowork then automates the drafting process that used to take
Speaker 1: place in his head to your point, you were completely correct.
Speaker 1: After the agent finishes its draft, Heath goes back and
Speaker 1: forth with it for up to thirty minutes, suggesting revisions.
Speaker 1: It's quite involved process, and he still writes some parts
Speaker 1: of the story himself, but Heath says the workflow saves him.
Speaker 1: I was every week and that he's now spends thirty
Speaker 1: forty percent less time writing Yeah, mate, how much time
Speaker 1: do you spend prompting yeah?
Speaker 2: And also thirty to forty percent even if that's accurate,
Speaker 2: thirty to forty percent less time in order to produce
Speaker 2: something that's writing in the smeared out voice of the internet.
Speaker 2: And yes, you're trying to get it to write more
Speaker 2: like you, but come on, and and also you know,
Speaker 2: I just I don't understand why they would be willing
Speaker 2: to relinquish not just the process, but also the sort
Speaker 2: of like intellectual ownership. I don't mean like you know,
Speaker 2: in the in the like intellectual property sense, but like
Speaker 2: the like the I wrote this, yeah, and like the
Speaker 2: way that you know something when you wrote it that
Speaker 2: you can't know even if you were there for the editing,
Speaker 2: like I know, I mean, I you know, I'm I'm
Speaker 2: getting older, as we all do until we die. And
Speaker 2: as I get older, my memory is, you know, not
Speaker 2: as good as it used to be. I think it's
Speaker 2: still pretty good, but you know, I have trouble remembering
Speaker 2: all sorts of things that I didn't used to have
Speaker 2: trouble remembering. But I know the stuff that I've written
Speaker 2: inside and out because I was in there, you know,
Speaker 2: in the trenches with it writing it, and so I
Speaker 2: know it, you know, chapter and verse. Why would you
Speaker 2: give up having that kind of knowledge of your own
Speaker 2: work and your own thinking.
Speaker 1: Well, that's the thing. Look for me with my writing
Speaker 1: as well. It's not just like the writing and the
Speaker 1: reading all that. It's I will be writing something and
Speaker 1: I will think, and in my case it will be
Speaker 1: like did the information mentioned in June twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: the Open Eyes annualized revenue, Like I will go through
Speaker 1: it insane chain of events in my brain. But it's
Speaker 1: because of my interaction with the work that I remember
Speaker 1: that stuff isn't just eat and then I linked a
Speaker 1: thingy and then think it was way that reminds me
Speaker 1: of something I was working on in twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: or twenty twenty five. And I'm not sure that. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure that these people have had that joy of
Speaker 1: an experience.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I don't even mean this condescendingly. I just mean there
Speaker 1: is a certain joy to being like way I remember
Speaker 1: this and digging something out that you painstakingly read and
Speaker 1: probably didn't even use at the time. Yep. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: it's and it sucks. And also it seems like more work. Yes,
Speaker 1: I agree, this seems like way more work to me,
Speaker 1: Like I am, okay, I connect all of these things
Speaker 1: and I make sure they work, and I've written a
Speaker 1: long text document. Also, he says that it's got all
Speaker 1: of his old articles in it. Wouldn't that fill up
Speaker 1: that context window anyway? Yeah, putting all that technical stuff aside?
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, No, I mean, I just I don't understand,
Speaker 2: because like, if you don't write it, then you're not
Speaker 2: thinking your way through it and like, yeah, Okay, I
Speaker 2: go into writing something and I have sort of an
Speaker 2: idea of what it's going to be. But it's as
Speaker 2: I write it that I realize what I actually think
Speaker 2: about these things. And I get to a spot in
Speaker 2: the writing where I'm stuck, and I realize, Oh, I'm
Speaker 2: stuck because there was something that I thought I understood,
Speaker 2: or two ideas that I thought were connected. Now I'm
Speaker 2: realizing that connection is is less clearer, my understanding is
Speaker 2: less good than I thought it was, And so I
Speaker 2: have to sit down and work it out, or I
Speaker 2: have to go check an idea that I realized I
Speaker 2: was taking for granted and maybe it wasn't true, and
Speaker 2: like and then this stuff is out there in the
Speaker 2: world with my name on it, and I just can't
Speaker 2: imagine having something out in the world with my name
Speaker 2: on it that I wasn't you know, dead sure of
Speaker 2: and felt that I had thought my own way through
Speaker 2: on Otherwise I'd die of shame.
Speaker 1: I same. Yeah, like, I FuG stuff up. I might
Speaker 1: typeos people love to email me about them, Yeah, they
Speaker 1: sure do, more than they say nice things in fact,
Speaker 1: But it's it's the beauty of that beauty of that
Speaker 1: fuck up that makes it mine. But on top of that, Yeah,
Speaker 1: though you have said this, and call Newport recently said
Speaker 1: it as well, where it's people are scared of thinking,
Speaker 1: and I extend that to cal also said concentration. I
Speaker 1: extend it to friction. I think that that moment you
Speaker 1: just describe when you're like, wait, what what does that mean?
Speaker 1: What does that mean? Wait?
Speaker 3: What do you no?
Speaker 1: Wait? I don't get that that moment is deeply uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: That is introspection. Yeah, like, and it sucks and when
Speaker 1: you don't like I spent a lot of last night
Speaker 1: learning about the Japanese economy makes me curious little critter,
Speaker 1: and it does tie into things in worrying ways. But
Speaker 1: and there were moments where I'm like, great, okay, oh
Speaker 1: the plaza record, what's that? Oh? Christ, they have to
Speaker 1: learn another thing. Oh what's the Oh there's some sort
Speaker 1: of dilemma, oh, Japanese economies. And there were constant points
Speaker 1: I'm like, what is this? Why am I fucking stupid?
Speaker 1: Why don't I understand this? But that's how you get smart,
Speaker 1: that's how you learn thing, and you I don't see
Speaker 1: how you do that having an LLLM burp stuff up
Speaker 1: for you, even if it's based on things you have said.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I think that's exactly right.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Also, if it's just reading stuff you've written before,
Speaker 1: is that like, at some point it's going to stop
Speaker 1: being you entirely because it's just eventually it's just going
Speaker 1: to be more AI than person. Very weird.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I I completely agree, and you're also I mean,
Speaker 2: this to me is bringing me back to something that
Speaker 2: I said I think the first time I was on
Speaker 2: your podcast, which is that in a way, this is
Speaker 2: taking the sort of billionaire experience and making it like
Speaker 2: the billionaire cognitive experience and making it available for everyone
Speaker 2: because billionaires never have to do anything uncomfortable like think.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's also reminding me of one of my
Speaker 2: favorite tweets of all time, which I just found and
Speaker 2: I'm gonna read it to you. Being a billionaire must
Speaker 2: be insane. You can buy new teeth, new skin, all
Speaker 2: your chairs cost twenty thousand dollars in weigh two thousand pounds.
Speaker 2: Your life is just a series of your own preferences.
Speaker 2: In terms of cognitive impairment, it's probably it's probably like
Speaker 2: being kicked in the head by a horse every day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think i'd be fine. But yeah, yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean I would be good. I think a billion dollars,
Speaker 1: i'd be just fine. I feels like a skill issue
Speaker 1: to me.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's definitely a skill issue, although you're also yeah,
Speaker 2: you have the of you know that the arrested development
Speaker 2: meme of like, no, it never works for anyone else,
Speaker 2: but it just might work for us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, people fool themselves into think this would
Speaker 1: work for them.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I also think that there is a busy box mentality
Speaker 1: to it as well. When you start using these things,
Speaker 1: and it's very clear from the moment you start using
Speaker 1: them that they will not just do anything on their own.
Speaker 1: You can't just be like do this yep, Like just
Speaker 1: just check this out. What will you do this? And
Speaker 1: it spits out lots of stories about things being one shotted,
Speaker 1: but very few actual examples that matter to me or
Speaker 1: really anyone I talk to. It's like, oh, it fixed
Speaker 1: one problem, but you can't just say do this entire task.
Speaker 1: So once you've done that, I don't know. My reaction
Speaker 1: to that is always the fuck is this? I don't
Speaker 1: log onto a website, have it break, and then go
Speaker 1: that's okay, I use another website. But I think that
Speaker 1: there is something about the experience that because it's so
Speaker 1: convoluted and you have to contrive all of these little
Speaker 1: doo hickeys like fucking pee wee Herman making breakfast, yet
Speaker 1: when you get to the end of it, you're like, wow,
Speaker 1: I'm so smart, I made I made it do this.
Speaker 1: But also I'm going to give it credit for the
Speaker 1: thing that I ended up doing most of the work on,
Speaker 1: if I'm honest, right, I.
Speaker 2: Mean, but this is also this is part of why
Speaker 2: I think the people who are most convinced that this
Speaker 2: is going to take over every job and one shot
Speaker 2: everything are so often software engineers, because yeah, okay, this
Speaker 2: thing is changing the way that people code and does
Speaker 2: seem to be able to, you know, write some code
Speaker 2: for some people, But you know, that's a limited human task, right,
Speaker 2: and even for people whose job is, you know, to
Speaker 2: be a software engineer, the actual writing of code is
Speaker 2: just one part of what the job is. And the
Speaker 2: thing that's I think that the trap that these people
Speaker 2: fall into a lot of the time is they believe
Speaker 2: that their job software engineering writing code is like the
Speaker 2: the ultimate human intellectual achievement, and so if you have
Speaker 2: something that can do that, it must be able to
Speaker 2: do anything, and that.
Speaker 1: It's just not true. And it can also it can
Speaker 1: do that kind of yeap, Like it's like it can
Speaker 1: write code, yep. But no one also can seem to
Speaker 1: explain what that means in the end, because all these companies,
Speaker 1: it does sound like you've got companies where you've got
Speaker 1: a bunch of people just not writing any code. And
Speaker 1: I hate to ask, now what, Yeah, like really they're
Speaker 1: not firing anyone, and largely across the entire software that
Speaker 1: things seem to be getting worse.
Speaker 2: So yeah, good, I mean it's question Mark, Yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean Anthropics, Uh, cloud code, you know, code based dropped
Speaker 2: and they're like, yeah, we wrote a cloud code with
Speaker 2: cloud code. And then there are a bunch of coders
Speaker 2: in there saying yeah, and tell that you did.
Speaker 1: I also love that we're meant to be scared of
Speaker 1: Claude Mythos. This thing that can find but this obvious
Speaker 1: marketing trick. Yes, that can find any number, It can
Speaker 1: find every vulnerability at everything. And that's other than the
Speaker 1: fact it required human human people to actually find the
Speaker 1: vulnerabilities and coaching yep, and indeed, like one of the
Speaker 1: main but one of the main exploits free BSD was
Speaker 1: not actually exploitable, but you could just make it crash
Speaker 1: and regardless, but they couldn't find the vulnerabilities in their
Speaker 1: own software.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm sure, like I'm very willing to
Speaker 2: believe that it's a helpful tool for finding certain kinds
Speaker 2: of vulnerabilities. But you're completely right. This is a marketing gimmick.
Speaker 1: Come on, it is. And it's also I'm kind of
Speaker 1: honestly a little bit scared of how well it worked
Speaker 1: on people, Like how many people just like, yeah, this
Speaker 1: is the scariest thing ever, I wise, I couldn't see it.
Speaker 2: It's because we've got this this narrative that comes out
Speaker 2: of these you know, AI cults like the rationalists, that
Speaker 2: that AI is going to take over the world and
Speaker 2: be able to, you know, make itself super intelligent and
Speaker 2: end humanity once it's able to write its own code
Speaker 2: and all of that's just a sci fi fantasy, but
Speaker 2: you know, it makes it very easy for anthropic to
Speaker 2: do these sorts of marketing gimmicks or oh man, I
Speaker 2: don't remember who it was who pointed this out. But
Speaker 2: someone I saw someone online say, it's not just that
Speaker 2: it's a marketing gimmick, it's also that this is a
Speaker 2: way of sort of soft launching it as an enterprise
Speaker 2: only product that's not available to the general consumer.
Speaker 1: And you could you can tell the kind of toying
Speaker 1: with that idea too, But it's not really obvious what
Speaker 1: the plan is. Yeah, because the way they sell this
Speaker 1: shit is having one million different guys with an AI
Speaker 1: avatar on Twitter posting that this is what changes everything
Speaker 1: every time they do anything. Yeah, And I just I've
Speaker 1: also been playing a fun game, which is called go
Speaker 1: and try and work out what these big integrations do.
Speaker 1: It's not a very okay. When I say it's fun,
Speaker 1: I mean it's exhausting. Because I went on the gold
Speaker 1: the Goldman Sachs and Ananthropic. They're automating accounting and compliance roles.
Speaker 1: And but don't worry, the firm is in the early
Speaker 1: stagings stages of developing agents based ananthropics model that will
Speaker 1: collapse the amount of time these essential functions take. What
Speaker 1: are those functions? Who the fuck knows? They don't say.
Speaker 1: They just don't say. They like they don't because they
Speaker 1: probably don't have an answer. I want to. I want
Speaker 1: to see those contracts. I want to see the actual outcomes.
Speaker 1: But it's I mean, this is kind of a vague
Speaker 1: point to say, but I feel kind of insane that
Speaker 1: we're still talking about it on this level. It's still
Speaker 1: we're still talking about it, like we're trying to establish
Speaker 1: whether the Sasquatch exists.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just the the amount to vibe
Speaker 2: based crap around all of this, like to me, I mean,
Speaker 2: because of my background as an astrophysicist, to me, like
Speaker 2: the the number one thing that is clearly just vibes
Speaker 2: is this whole push for orbital data centers, which is
Speaker 2: just like what the stupidest well.
Speaker 1: I feel that we might discussed this before, but it's like,
Speaker 1: isn't isn't the amount of power they create like it
Speaker 1: wouldn't they Isn't it an insane amount of power for
Speaker 1: like one mega walk. I haven't looked too deep into
Speaker 1: the tag yet, I don't I.
Speaker 2: Don't remember how much they like, I don't remember how
Speaker 2: like what the what the numbers are for power generation,
Speaker 2: but I know that bleeding off heat is a serious problem,
Speaker 2: and so because like space is a vacuum. Vacuum is
Speaker 2: an insulator, and so even though it's cold, you can't
Speaker 2: actually get rid of the excess heat very well. And
Speaker 2: so you need these giant radiator veins that are bigger
Speaker 2: than the entire International space just for one night the center. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and it's just not going to happen. And that's just
Speaker 2: one issue. You've got the radiation, You've got the fact
Speaker 2: that you can't upgrade the damn thing without doing a spacewalk, Like,
Speaker 2: what what the hell are they thinking?
Speaker 1: So I just looked at up real quick projects like
Speaker 1: star Cloud. I aim for roughly eight killer what of
Speaker 1: power in early prototypes.
Speaker 2: That's not enough.
Speaker 1: Well, just to give you some context, an MVL seventy
Speaker 1: two of GB two hundred seventy two GPUs is about
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty two killer watts. Yeah, so that's
Speaker 1: probably not gonna work. No, that's but you know what,
Speaker 1: that's also insane. I read about that. I read a
Speaker 1: headline about that, I think in the New York Times
Speaker 1: read one and CMBC. It makes me think that if
Speaker 1: I was an evil person, like a had a top
Speaker 1: hat and like a little curly mustache of some sort,
Speaker 1: like I could just get so far just being like, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, I used them all the other day and
Speaker 1: it actually is fully alive. He's fully alive, and it
Speaker 1: told me it's coming for your job specifically, and then
Speaker 1: just go on being verified and like give them the
Speaker 1: I'll be like the aibot came up with this, mate,
Speaker 1: they're gonna come. They're coming for your wife. I would
Speaker 1: be on the front page of New York Times, terrifying
Speaker 1: message from British traveler. Yeah, I would just claim I
Speaker 1: was from the future like that would be in that
Speaker 1: Kevin Russ would be immediately intrigued.
Speaker 2: It's funny, I was I was about to say, Kevin
Speaker 2: Russ would believe you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think he would hit me with a
Speaker 1: beancan like Silah in heroes little reference for those listening
Speaker 1: remember heroes from decades ago. But it's just it's frustrating
Speaker 1: as well, because even though you've got the big blinking
Speaker 1: warning signs and you especially like you've really gone deep
Speaker 1: into how nutty these billionaires are and how distant the
Speaker 1: things they're saying are from reality, it is ours are
Speaker 1: still somewhat of a niche belief, which is strange. Still.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like, I know, I know, it's like we're
Speaker 2: the reality based community and somehow this is not the
Speaker 2: dominant narrative or even one of the dominant voices in
Speaker 2: the narrative. Instead, it's like, Okay, you know, there's a
Speaker 2: few of us, and the crazy people are just louder, And.
Speaker 1: How do you see any of this going? Like, just
Speaker 1: you don't have to come up with a perfect dance here,
Speaker 1: I realized someone on the spot. It's like, how does
Speaker 1: this realistically go from here? Because even putting us out
Speaker 1: the economics, it doesn't seem to be getting better in
Speaker 1: a way that matters.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we're in a bubble. It's going to
Speaker 2: crash at some point, right that bubble is gonna pop.
Speaker 2: And at that point, I'm not completely sure what's going
Speaker 2: to happen. It's going to depend on you know, where
Speaker 2: we are when the bubble pops, what happens, or what's
Speaker 2: happening when it pops. But you know, I think that
Speaker 2: we're going to see a few things, right, We're going
Speaker 2: to see I I would like to well, there's a
Speaker 2: few different things that can happen. Yeah, sorry, I'm stumbling
Speaker 2: over my words here, But like I think I think
Speaker 2: that what the tech industry or the leaders of the
Speaker 2: tech industry would like to happen at that point is
Speaker 2: they would like to use the fact that by then,
Speaker 2: you know, that they will have and kind of already
Speaker 2: have you know, eaten all of the new computing hardware
Speaker 2: and you know, created these giant data centers and try
Speaker 2: to repurpose them for something else, because at this point,
Speaker 2: you know, like it's it's you know, hard to get
Speaker 2: a stick of ram if you're using it for a
Speaker 2: giant data center. And I think they love that, right.
Speaker 2: They want everyone to be using cloud computing and not
Speaker 2: doing any computing on their own actual computers. So they
Speaker 2: want to you know, take that power that they've taken
Speaker 2: and keep it. And so they try to come up
Speaker 2: with with some other thing to be the next hype
Speaker 2: cycle that will incorporate, you know, the earlier hype cycles
Speaker 2: of AI and crypto and all the other stuff that
Speaker 2: came before, and say, oh, no, no, no, this is
Speaker 2: the big thing and it's going to make all of
Speaker 2: the other things work, and it will be different this time,
Speaker 2: we promise, guys, we swear the same way that they
Speaker 2: did with this versus crypto and it's going to be
Speaker 2: the same people shilling it, both in the industry and
Speaker 2: the industry watchers. You know, the same way that Kevin
Speaker 2: Russ was a shill for crypto, now he's a show
Speaker 2: for AI in any event that's with quantum. Yeah.
Speaker 1: If you see if Kevin Russ writes about quantum, yep,
Speaker 1: that's how you know the AI bubble is best.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's probably right.
Speaker 1: He's right for the exits.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I think that's exactly right. But that's what
Speaker 2: the industry wants, right.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: The other or another way that it could go is
Speaker 2: when that bubble pops, you're going to see the current
Speaker 2: AI backlash, which I think that outside of the tech industry,
Speaker 2: AI is not actually very popular at all, and I
Speaker 2: think that people in the tech industry really underestimate that.
Speaker 2: And if there's a bubble that pops and that leads
Speaker 2: to a crash, that's going to supercharge the backlash against
Speaker 2: AI in a way that the tech industry is just
Speaker 2: not prepared for, I think, And I would like to
Speaker 2: see that into some kind of reckoning.
Speaker 1: So I want to be I'm going to lead into
Speaker 1: a sentence that you're going to almost immediately guess what
Speaker 1: I'm talking about. I want to be clear that what
Speaker 1: happened to Sam Lman, the person who threw a multip
Speaker 1: cocktail of the person that's through that shot, that is
Speaker 1: morally reprehensible. You cannot do that. It's disgusting. I'm against him.
Speaker 1: I will say that these that I'm surprised that these
Speaker 1: companies are surprised because it's like, for the best part
Speaker 1: of four years they have said, we are taking your job.
Speaker 1: We need everything as you a regular person struggle to
Speaker 1: get credit or thrive or pay your student loans. Like
Speaker 1: in everything's more expensive, everything sucks, but we the AI
Speaker 1: industry get whatever, whatever we want, and our explicit goal
Speaker 1: is to take your job, and the thing we own
Speaker 1: will control everything and all sources of income and everything
Speaker 1: will go through us. You should be scared, because we're
Speaker 1: scared too. I feel like they should have seen this guy.
Speaker 1: Don't think it should happen to them. I want to
Speaker 1: be really clear for legal reasons, but it's like, why
Speaker 1: are they surprised, Like this is exactly the like you've
Speaker 1: been scaring mentally, You've been scaring everyone, but mentally, unstan
Speaker 1: people will also get scared.
Speaker 2: Yeap.
Speaker 1: And it's horrible. And it's horrible because it's like, I
Speaker 1: don't want more of this to happen, but I don't
Speaker 1: see how it stops.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I mean I they are not used to
Speaker 2: their actions having consequences. Yes, And again, you know billionaire
Speaker 2: brain right, when you're a billionaire, of your actions pretty
Speaker 2: much don't have consequences. In a way, again, what happened
Speaker 2: with sam Altman and the Molotov cowtail that is morally reprehensible,
Speaker 2: that stuff should not happen. But in a way, the
Speaker 2: reason that was a headline was that it was a
Speaker 2: billionaire who almost faced a consequence.
Speaker 1: Yes, and someone who has said and it was I've
Speaker 1: recently checked this since I think it was April twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three. Sam Altman has been saying, I'm scared of
Speaker 1: what we're building. Yep. Dario ama Day has been saying
Speaker 1: for years, this will destroy all white collar labor. Yep.
Speaker 1: They have been saying we always need more compute and
Speaker 1: as I think though, but regular people face this as well.
Speaker 1: I don't think an average person feels like they are
Speaker 1: taken super seriously by the world. Yeah, the world does
Speaker 1: not feel hospitable to the average person. But every time
Speaker 1: an AI person says literally anything, it's ron page news
Speaker 1: and it's taken with the complete seriousness. The government has
Speaker 1: meetings about it.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know why would people possibly feel
Speaker 1: angry about any of It's just the thing that I'm
Speaker 1: saying to say in the newsletters. WHOA, It's like, I
Speaker 1: think these people should tone down. They've said that we
Speaker 1: need to tone down the rhetoric. I agree. I think
Speaker 1: that they should stop talking about the models that the
Speaker 1: way they do. They also don't see this alarmism with
Speaker 1: the AI psychosis.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean it's really it's really striking the
Speaker 2: things that they're willing to sort of incite a moral
Speaker 2: panic about in the things that they won't right. They
Speaker 2: want to get people worried about this stuff taking all
Speaker 2: white collar jobs. They want to get people worried that
Speaker 2: it's powerful enough to destroy the world, that it's the
Speaker 2: most important thing that has ever happened in the history
Speaker 2: of humanity.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: And they don't want to talk about the people right now,
Speaker 2: who are you know, going insane and dying because of
Speaker 2: the existing products that we already have.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think also, here's the thing that you
Speaker 1: you will. Did you see the the one of the blokes,
Speaker 1: one of the blows, the one who threw the Molotov cocktail?
Speaker 1: Apparently he had posted Judkowski's if if if they build it,
Speaker 1: will ship myself. Yeah whatever it's called. Yeah, right, and
Speaker 1: it's just like that everyone does. Yeah, just like, Oh,
Speaker 1: I don't know, are you surprised that people who have
Speaker 1: been that you've monetized scaring people and people are scared?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah no, And I mean, you know, for all that,
Speaker 2: Altman says that he disagrees with Yudkowski. Altman also said
Speaker 2: that he thinks Judkowski probably deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, which.
Speaker 1: Which is one of the more what for Yeah, like
Speaker 1: what what possibly for strangest man. Yeah, no, these guys
Speaker 1: weirdest guy, weirdest guy. We have to hear from yod
Speaker 1: Kowski with the Nobel Peace Prize for strange boy, weirdest,
Speaker 1: most unnecessary Harry Potter fanfic. Yeah, definitely the new categories
Speaker 1: in the Nobel But it's just but no, but that's
Speaker 1: the thing, it's like to your point, Yeah, it's exactly.
Speaker 1: It is something that Altman claims to not endorse but
Speaker 1: wholeheartedly does.
Speaker 2: Oh, Yeah.
Speaker 1: And what's also interesting is I haven't heard anything from
Speaker 1: Dario ama Day about it.
Speaker 2: Nope.
Speaker 1: I don't know. You think within a situation like this,
Speaker 1: Darya Amada wouldn't be like, I'm so sorry it's happened
Speaker 1: to Sam Ortman is terrible with nothing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that is a good point. I haven't thought it.
Speaker 1: Kind of respect, yeah, current, No, I kind of respect
Speaker 1: because like we've really not had men of industry who
Speaker 1: just fucking hate each other in a while. So I
Speaker 1: think it's nice to see, nice to see like some
Speaker 1: classic robber baron shit. But it's and now, as of
Speaker 1: the morning of recording this open Aye that an internal
Speaker 1: memo with a clear purpose of being leaked saying that
Speaker 1: Anthropic is overstating their revenues. It's just it's just it's
Speaker 1: really we are getting into the funny part at least. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the cool zone, as it were, Yes, exactly, that's where
Speaker 1: we're on. It's so unfortunate it really like this on
Speaker 1: one level, it's very funny on that how that it's
Speaker 1: just like we could be done fan house yep.
Speaker 2: No, I mean these guys love talking about opportunity costs
Speaker 2: and like what about the opportunity cost of like you
Speaker 2: fucking having your money and your position in society, because
Speaker 2: I think that that's just enormous, for like, the opportunity
Speaker 2: cost of having a Sam Altman or having an Elon
Speaker 2: Musk is just so enormous, and they never fucking talk
Speaker 2: about it because of course they don't.
Speaker 1: Have you seen did you hear about SpaceX is excellent economics?
Speaker 1: They lost five billion dollars last year? Oh god, I.
Speaker 2: Haven't heard that. I've been busy with others, like with launching.
Speaker 1: You've been busy, like enjoying your life rather than reading
Speaker 1: about Elon Musk he is. I will give Elon Musk credit.
Speaker 1: He has invented a new way to fuck up his company,
Speaker 1: just like just like attaching an AI company to SpaceX,
Speaker 1: which has useful products like Starlink that people seem to like.
Speaker 2: Yep, yeah, no, I mean if it works, then he
Speaker 2: has to fuck it up right the same way he
Speaker 2: did with Twitter.
Speaker 1: Talking a billionaires. Have you been looking at Gary Tan?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: Actually I haven't. What's he been up to?
Speaker 1: So he's the head of y Combinat and he's currently
Speaker 1: experiencing his own AI psychosis sort because he has become
Speaker 1: he's become this weird like he has this thing called
Speaker 1: g Stack, which is his claud code set up, and
Speaker 1: it's just it's literally just at Claude dot mt. I
Speaker 1: believe it's like and it has people really like it
Speaker 1: because people want to get into Y Combinator, so they
Speaker 1: say nice things. But it's been very funny because apparently
Speaker 1: this website just has like tens of thousands of lines
Speaker 1: of code on it. It's like it's it kind of
Speaker 1: feels like watching a kid at a cinema arcade machine
Speaker 1: and they just kind of like pull. They've not got
Speaker 1: any money in it. They just put it at the
Speaker 1: wheel like Ridge Racer or something, or like time crisis.
Speaker 1: They got the gunpoint and get the screen. No money
Speaker 1: in there. It's just very weird because I keep getting
Speaker 1: back to this thing. It's like the glasses from They Live.
Speaker 1: We're finally seeing who the Dunces truly are. All of
Speaker 1: these people who are allegedly smart are actually the literal opposite. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's unfortunate. Well, why don't we wrap it up there?
Speaker 1: Adam tell us about this new part us? What what
Speaker 1: sort of things have you got coming down the pike?
Speaker 1: What what plans have you got Let's end on a
Speaker 1: high note.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. So the podcast again is called Dreaming Against the
Speaker 2: Machine and we're launching, I mean, as of this recording,
Speaker 2: we're launching tomorrow. It was our first real episode. Uh.
Speaker 2: And we have a bunch of great guests coming up.
Speaker 2: You're one of them, ed, uh. And we've also got
Speaker 2: who else do we have. We've got a bunch of
Speaker 2: the original AI Bias people like Sophia Noble and and
Speaker 2: Kathy O'Neil. We've got some great sci fi people like
Speaker 2: Kim Stanley Robinson coming on the podcast.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: And you know some some of the great scientists as well,
Speaker 2: like John de Prescott Weinstein who are talking with about
Speaker 2: Star Trek and and also you know some of amazing
Speaker 2: haters like you or Dave carp uh. So, yeah, it's
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of fun. The conversations have already
Speaker 2: we've already got a few episodes in the can and
Speaker 2: those conversations have been great. And basically it's going to
Speaker 2: be a place to try to figure out what a
Speaker 2: good future might look like and try to look for
Speaker 2: some hope and be really cringingly sincere and earnest because
Speaker 2: that's kind of my entire deal.
Speaker 1: And I think that's the only way to fight against
Speaker 1: the darkness. Really, yeah, like it's the only the only
Speaker 1: real way forward is for the light to win, is
Speaker 1: to actually be sincere about the things we like. Because
Speaker 1: as much of a hatreds as I am, I do
Speaker 1: love the people in this community and the people go,
Speaker 1: you're awesome, Like we can have cool conversations in the
Speaker 1: show that not how happening elsewhere. I'm glad that someone
Speaker 1: is doing something positive.
Speaker 2: Thank you. Yeah, I mean that was the idea. It's like,
Speaker 2: there's enough darkness out there if we want to if
Speaker 2: we want to win this thing, it's enough to say
Speaker 2: what we don't like. We got to talk about what
Speaker 2: we want.
Speaker 1: Hell yeah, well, Adam, thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 1: We will link to all of your your various escapades
Speaker 1: in the pro in the episode notes Flawless. They're just
Speaker 1: gonna keep going. I am, of course, said zitron you
Speaker 1: can find me on a monologue this week. I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna surprise you with Ronan Farah interview again, but yes,
Speaker 1: thank you all for listening. Of course, you catch us
Speaker 1: on the monologue and we'll have some fun interviews coming up.
Speaker 1: Everyone got the boys from This Machine Kills coming as well. Anyway,
Speaker 1: catch you on the monologue everyone, and thank you Adam
Speaker 1: for joining.
Speaker 4: Us, Thanks Zev for having me, Thank you for listening
Speaker 4: to Better Offline.
Speaker 5: The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song
Speaker 5: is Matasowski. You can check out more of his music
Speaker 5: and audio projects at Matasowski dot com, M.
Speaker 4: A T T O S O W s ki dot com.
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