WEBVTT - NFL Week 12 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 28) 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.920 Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:10.960 --> 0:00:13.399 brought to you by Bett MGM. I am your host, 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:15.400 Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.200 Dan Harris Ady. It is time for our early look 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:20.200 at next week's lines, and with me to break it 0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:23.760 all down is Rich Ryan, host of the Gridiron Gamble podcast. 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.600 You can find Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich. 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:29.400 Thanks again for coming back on the show. How's it going. 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:34.080 It's doing good. It's a victory Monday for us miserable 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:37.559 Jets fans, which they come few and far between nowadays. 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:39.919 Second in a row. Thh man, I mean, let's go. 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.040 We're an unstoppable juggernaut. Now, you were saying right before 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:45.360 you got on that you are actually going? Are you 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:47.440 going this weekend? Next weekend? When are you going to 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:48.640 the game? I'm going to the game. 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.960 We'll be discussing later in this podcast this weekend, heading 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:55.360 back east from South Orange County out here in California 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:58.040 to New Jersey to watch our fight in New York 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:00.240 Jets take on the Oakland. 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.440 Oh baby, Well, I look forward to hearing your thoughts 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:05.600 on that, because it's actually kind of an interesting line 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:07.800 at least from my perspective. So we are going to 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:09.720 get into that and all the games on the week 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:12.080 twelve slate, and when we do, we're going to be 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:15.280 using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. And 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:18.360 you surely know by now that the consensus odds over 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:20.640 there are the aggregation of odds that are available on 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:23.199 the market. As always, there are differences in the various 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.560 sports books, so when you're looking shop around, but there 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.120 are occasionally, you know, outliers there that you can really 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:30.400 take advantage of. And also if you ever want to 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:32.479 see how I or any of the top sports betting 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:35.000 experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time, 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.920 you can see that also on bettingpros dot com. All right, Rich, 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:40.840 let's dive right in here with the Thursday night game. 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:43.479 You've got the Colts at the Texans. The Texans here 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:45.600 laying three and a half and the over under at 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:47.240 forty five and a half. There's a lot to on 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:49.800 back here with you know, both teams. Really the Colts 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:52.680 grab the big win against the Jaguars, but they lose 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:55.440 Marlon Mack to a fractured hand. He's certainly not going 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:57.760 to play in this game, and probably not for the 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:00.880 foreseeable future. It's going to be some doination of Jordan 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:04.280 Wilkins or Jonathan Williams and naihim Hines. We've got possibly 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.200 t Y Hilton making it back today. There was a 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:09.160 positive report from him in practice, So it's unclear a 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:11.440 little bit what we're going to see out of this offense. 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.959 On the Texan side, pretty embarrassed by Baltimore. There's really 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.840 no shame in that. Baltimore is just a total juggernaut 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.079 at the moment. But the Shaun Watson, he gets beat 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:23.799 up pretty good. Maybe will Fuller returns here at the least. 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:26.320 I mean, you assume that the Texans are going to 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.079 be pretty angry looking to bounce back. So how do 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:29.680 you feel here about laying three and a half at 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:31.360 home over under forty five and a half? 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:33.399 Yeah, there's a lot here, and on the short week, 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.079 it makes things even more interesting. This is a four 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.000 and a half look ahead, moved down a point. Colt's 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:42.119 bouncing back with Brissette under center, and like you said, 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:45.280 Texans embarrassed by the Ravens last week at home. But 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.919 it looks like both the bets and the money are 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:51.040 pouring in on Houston. I'm seeing sixty six percent of 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:54.320 the bets, seventy six percent of the money, and I 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:57.480 think I kind of agree with them. And if you 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.480 look at that Texans Ravens game, obviously, one of the 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.520 things that everybody talked about today was the missed pass 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:08.400 interference on that deep ball to DeAndre Hopkins and the 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:15.200 subsequent stand call on the challenge of the PI, and 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:18.000 that game just kind of got away from the Texans 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.160 and it is an embarrassing spot, especially coming off of 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:24.320 a bye and the Ravens coming off of that massive 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.320 Patriots game. You would think that would be a nice 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:31.200 merge for the Texans to take advantage of it. They 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.280 just kind of got steamrolled there. I think we're getting 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:37.560 a bit of value with that line coming down these 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:40.760 two teams, in addition to leaning a little bit towards 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:44.080 three and a half. Last time they went out, they 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:47.360 combined for fifty three points. Right now, the total sitting 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.440 at forty five and a half. So if there's more 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:52.120 positive news on t Y Hilts, and I think I'm 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.600 leaning towards the over as well. 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.280 Yeah, I completely agree with the over. At the very least, 0:03:57.520 --> 0:03:58.760 I do think that this is going to be a 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:00.839 game that's going to be high scoring on Thursday nights. 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.200 The defenses, they just have such a short time to 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.240 recover from those you know, hard hitting games that they 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.840 have the day before. As you said, a lot is 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:10.680 going to depend on what we see from the Colts 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.320 practice reports. It's really tough on that Thursday game. But 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:14.960 I agree with you, and you know, I look at 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.159 the game and I feel like, you know, I don't 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:19.360 feel like I should like the Texans at three and 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:21.840 a half, but I do. I certainly lean that way. 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.440 I don't think it's gonna move very much, as you said, 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.240 you know, originally you know that the line has come down, 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:28.960 but there is a lot of money coming in on 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:31.279 the Texans at this point. So I do like them 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:32.800 at three and a half, and I do like the 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.240 over right now at forty five and a half, even 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.800 without having the details on what's going to happen with 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:41.000 you know, some of the Colts skill players, because I 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:43.680 do think they'll still be able to put up points regardless. 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.000 Let's move on here to the bucks at the Falcons. 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.440 Falcons here are laying four and a half and the 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:50.240 over under is at fifty two and a half. That's 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:52.240 come down a bit. It was at fifty four when 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:56.159 I checked yesterday. I'm not really sure what has gotten 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:59.040 into the Falcons here. Things are really working for them 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:02.000 right now. They still cannot run the ball effectively, but 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.360 the passing offense looks to be just fine even without 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:08.160 Mohammed Sanu or Austin Hooper. It's really about their defense 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:12.080 that has suddenly come alive, both against the Saints and 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.599 then yesterday against the Panthers. Meanwhile, we know exactly what 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:18.560 the Bucks are at this point. Elite run defense, awful 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.359 pass defense, and Jameis Winston is going to throw a 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.240 few backbreaking interceptions or turn the ball over by a 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:26.520 fumble at the worst possible time. So how do you 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.920 feel here about the Falcons at home lank four and 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:31.599 a half with a total of fifty two and a half. 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:33.880 Who are these Atlanta Falcons? 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:37.440 I've been described. Everybody was screaming, you know, for the 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:39.719 coach to be fired, and suddenly, you know, Quinn just 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:42.039 got them turned around and playing well. I don't know 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:43.359 how it happened, but it happened. 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:45.880 And this is who Quinn is supposed to be, right, 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:49.160 He's a pete Carroll guy, part of that Seahawks defense 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:53.040 transitioned to Atlanta, and that was the strength when Dion 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:56.479 Jones first came into the league, Devondre Campbell, all these guys, 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.760 and they started off real slow, but now they're getting going. 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:03.680 You've got Claiborne and Jared up front really getting after it. 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:07.160 So I don't know, honestly what to make of this 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:10.800 Falcons team. You look at some of the sabermetrics or sabermetrics, 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:14.719 not baseball but like PFF and football outsiders, and I 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.279 don't know how much we can actually account the first 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.400 couple games of the year. I think they're muddying the 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:24.640 sample a little bit. So my knee jerk reaction is 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.760 that the Falcons are being overvalued off of two wins, 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.240 and that we should be looking to take the points 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.040 with the Bucks, maybe even dabble in the plus one 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:39.120 ninety on the money line. But I just I don't know. 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.880 Maybe sharper people than me will take advantage of this, 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.400 because when there's uncertainty in the market, that's when there's 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:50.120 value to be had. But the Falcons new trend of 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.680 being awesome just makes me very wary of this game 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:53.440 on all angles. 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:54.960 This strikes me as a game that's going to be 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.599 pretty split between sharp beetters and public. I think the 0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:00.000 public are gonna back the Falcons because I think everybody 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:02.160 is a really short memory, and the Falcons are playing 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:04.760 great and the Bucks just keep throwing it away. So 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:06.719 I bet you though the shart better is because you 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:08.359 know the models are going to say that the Bucks 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.760 are much better than their record indicates. But I'll be honest, 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.880 I've lost enough money betting on Jameis Winston so far 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.320 this year and it's not something that I would feel 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:21.000 comfortable taking advantage of. If anything, i'd lean the Falcons. 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:24.960 But again, I'm just not able to process what exactly 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.840 has changed. And again they were beat up on defense. 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.600 It's not like they're that much healthier suddenly that their 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.160 defense is going to be playing at this elite level 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:36.600 that it's been at right now. But still, especially with Winston, 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:38.800 you know, at the very end of that game he 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.880 was against the Saints, he was limping a lot. Now, 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:44.240 Bruce arians said that the ankle injury is fine, so 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:46.920 hopefully it is. But in the end, look, it's just 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:50.160 it's not a game that I feel real comfortable backing 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:54.120 you know, the Bucks for sure, and the Falcons well, 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.880 I like it just it feels like a game where 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.440 the public's going to love them, and that's also not 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.400 something I want to know. So I could see this 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.320 being a Thursday game where we list one game where 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.960 we stay away that this one being the one that 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:07.720 I'll avoid at all costs. 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.360 The Bucks are the alternate line team. Man, I'm telling 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:13.120 you fire Falcons minus ten and a half alternate and 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:16.240 Fire Bucks money line. You'll probably win money in the 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:16.800 long run. 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:18.480 I like it all right. Let's move on to the 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:21.720 Dolphins at the Browns. Browns a whopping eleven point favorite 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:23.920 over under here at forty four and a half. I mean, 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:26.280 the Browns are looking a little better this day. These days. 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.880 I think Kareem Hunt actually really opened up the offense. 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:31.960 And more about the fact that when he plays with 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:35.200 Kareem Hunt, I think that might be their best I'm sorry, 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:38.160 whitn't he plays with Chubb? That might be their best setup. 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:39.719 The way they've got it going on, Their defense is 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:42.000 getting healthier in the secondary. They're obviously not going to 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.400 have Miles Garrett here, which hurts their pass rush. But 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:46.880 the Dolphins, who had won a couple of games are 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.520 kind of coming back down to earth. They get dominated 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:52.280 by the Bills. In this last game, Devontae Parker continues 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.800 to be really the only consistent part of their team 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:56.120 on either side of the ball. So how do you 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.559 feel here about the Browns at home? Off kind of 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.000 the mini by laying eleven over under forty four and 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:01.600 a half. 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:03.600 A couple extra days rest, and it's so funny. It's 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.199 almost like Freddie Kitchens waited nine weeks to roll out 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:09.320 this twenty one personnel with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:10.800 on the field at the same time, and it's really 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:14.719 unlocked something in this offense. It's allowed the offensive line 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:18.960 to have less time to block. Right, they've been struggling 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:22.040 upfront and things have not been working out downfield when 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.200 getting the ball to Obj. But when you can throw 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:27.640 shorter to either Hunt or Chubb, you can give that 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:31.040 offensive line a little bit of help there by letting 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:33.640 Baker give rid of the ball quickly. And honestly, Baker's 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.840 really a timing quarterback. He's not somebody that's gonna do 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:40.000 your like Bruce arians seven step drop and just chuck 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:42.160 the ball down the field. He's very much a timing thrower, 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:45.040 so everything's been in rhythm and looked great. And yeah, 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:49.079 the mini buy as well has really helped. The public 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:50.760 is still loving the Dolphins. 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.320 I mean, was just gonna say that that's crazy to me. 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:57.280 Obviously, they covered five straights, so they were putting money 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:02.120 in everybody's pockets. But yeah, thirty one percent of tickets 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.080 on the Browns forty percent of the money. So the 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:07.920 public is once again lining up to take the points 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:12.880 with the Dolphins, and I kind of think they're rights. 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.160 I mean, in order to cover ten and a half, 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:18.400 you have to be consistently getting out to a lead 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:22.040 and extending the lead over a large sample, and I 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:24.440 don't know if the Browns are built to do that, 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:26.520 so I think you have to take the points here. 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:30.800 Now, I completely agree that there is value in the Dolphins. 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:32.840 I mean anything when you get to double digits, it 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.280 just makes me just be like, oh man, I want 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:37.559 to take that, because you know, getting that many points 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.160 and I did it with the Bengals pretty much Assie's 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:42.280 and long. It hasn't always worked out, but you want 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.199 to take a look at that. And for the public 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:47.080 side of it, my guess is Frankly, again I say 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:50.440 this most weeks, but the overwhelming bets in the preseason 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:52.400 were on Mayfield to win MVP and the Browns to 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:54.520 win the Super Bowl. So I think they the public 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.439 got so beat down by the Browns that they're just 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.720 running the other way. And again, the Dolphins have been 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:01.400 a team that covered this past week. But for the 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:03.400 most part, overall, it's not a game that I want 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:05.240 any part of. And there are a lot of games 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.520 like that on this slate, Frankly, but you know, with 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.480 the Browns laying eleven points, I see the value with 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:12.880 the Dolphins, but they're not at the point right now 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:16.520 given just I mean again, at some point, you know, 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:19.120 all the injuries are taking their told, even on a 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.080 team with a team like the Dolphins that doesn't have 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.439 that much talent. You know, once you lose Preston Williams 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.160 and even you know, Mark Walton, who wasn't anything great, 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:29.400 but you know he was at least Kalen Bilage is 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:31.480 probably the worst running back in football, you know, and 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.320 he's getting carries and on the defensive side when you 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:37.080 lost Staving Howard. So again, it's just not it's something 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.520 where I see the value in the Dolphins, But I 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.000 really don't think I could take it so long as 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:43.120 it sticks in double digits, which I'm sure it will. 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:46.400 Yeah, Kaylin Bilage's player profile photo is next to the 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.119 word plod in the dictionary. 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:51.280 Yeah, it's really it's a remarkable level of utility. 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:55.319 Frankly and the Brown's defensive lineman. Obviously, everybody knows they're 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:58.000 not gonna be without Miles Garrett, but Ogunjobi missing this 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.839 game for pushing Rudolph after that melee is well, I mean, 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.120 they're gonna have zero pass rush in this game. So 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.760 really a tough spot for a Browns team that should be, 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:10.040 you know, coming off of a big division win the 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.360 mini bye, like you noted, this should be them entering 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:15.840 into like a late season bloom and unfortunately kind of 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:16.800 a rough spot for them. 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:21.160 Yeah, you bet against Fitsmagic at your own risk. Let's 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.400 move on here to the Giants at the Bears this game. 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:26.480 I'm just I don't know what the spread could be 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:28.520 on this game where I'd feel comfortable with it. But 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.720 the spread that it is currently at is Bear's laying 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:34.240 six and a half with an over under at forty 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:35.800 and a half. That's down at least a point from 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:37.960 what I checked on last night. We know we've got 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.440 the Mitch Trubisky injury that's kind of hanging up in 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.160 the air. He reportedly had the hit pointer last night. 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:45.400 There's a lot of grumblings, but maybe that's not true. 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:48.440 Who knows. I honestly don't think it makes a difference 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.000 if you go to Chase Daniel or not. I'm not 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.000 sure it's a downgrade at this point. Trubisky has just 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.839 been playing so terribly. The Giants coming off the by 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.560 still does not sound like they're gonna have Evan Ingram here. 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:01.560 Maybe Sterling Shepherd he practiced today. Hopefully Sequon Parkley, you know, 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:03.199 got a little bit banged up in that Jets game. 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.800 Hopefully he's back good. How do you feel about the Bears? 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.959 Who I mean, betting on the Bears under basically has 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.160 been just a super solid strategy this whole year. I 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:14.719 think there's seven to three against it. How do you 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:16.320 feel about the Bears lank six and a half at 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:18.679 home to the Giants with an over under at forty 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:23.760 and a half. That's the correct reaction, just to be clear. 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:28.600 So a couple of weeks back, our Gridiron Gamble Super 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.920 Contest card. We had the Bears as short home favorites 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:35.160 against the Vikings, and not that we're the ones to 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.840 celebrate injuries, but we were quite happy to see Chase 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:42.439 Daniel get any quarterback sure when Mitch Trubisky was removed 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.880 from that game. I agree with you. I don't think 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:48.319 when this game opens, if Chase Daniel is the starting quarterback, 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.160 which all things are trending in that direction, I don't 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:54.480 think it moves off of this six and a half line. 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.680 That is in some places, certainly here in this betting 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:02.280 Pro's portal. I don't love either side at the number. 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.120 I do think the Bears are certainly a teaser candidate. 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:07.240 They though at six and a half. Get them down 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:09.920 to a half point, and I do like the over 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:13.840 in this game forty and a half. This Giants defense 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:19.480 stinks like it is horrific, and if we can get 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:23.200 Chase Daniel back there, I think that they can score 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:27.080 enough to get this pass that over the Bear. The 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.920 Giants are gonna be able to move the ball, and 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.640 Dimes is perfect in both aspects in that he can 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.240 move the ball and get the ball in the end zone, 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.000 or he can hand into the Bears defense, and they 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.960 can score as well. So I'm not in love with 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:42.840 the number. I do think the Bears are a teaser 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:45.280 candidate down to a half point, and I do like 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:47.560 the over on four and a half forty and a 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:48.000 half here. 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.360 Yeah, I don't like either of these numbers no matter 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:53.560 what you do. I mean, I agree with you that 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.280 I don't love the under on this one, because again, yeah, 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:58.400 the thing is, you know, even if the Bears just 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:01.480 run David Montgomery, you know, all day long, even though 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:03.440 you know they don't have a great offensive line, but 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:05.040 against the Giants, who don't really need that to be 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:06.560 able to move the ball, they should be able to 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.720 go up and down. They you know, the Giants pass 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.000 defense is terrible, Alan Robinson, I expect we'll have a 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:13.800 bounce back game after getting shut down by Jaylen Ramsey 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.240 and again on the other side of the ball. Look, 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.280 the Bears defense is just not anything close to what 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:21.600 it was. You can certainly run on them. Barkley's probably 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.440 gonna have a big day, and if Shepard comes back, 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:26.920 that's just going to give the Giants another weapon. So yeah, 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:28.520 I mean, I guess as much as I've been leaning 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.560 on the under the over does strike me as right 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:32.200 if I had to go one way or another, But 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.360 at six and a half, I'm just not going anywhere 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:37.520 near this game whatsoever. And I agree though I do 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:39.840 expect the Bears to win, so teasing it down sounds 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:41.800 like a good idea to me. Let's move on here 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.200 to the Seahawks at the Eagles. The Eagles here are 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.400 laying two and a half and the over unders at 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.440 forty eight. I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised by 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.040 this line. I thought it would be closer to a 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:55.400 pick them. I mean, the Eagles. They continue the battle. Yeah, 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.560 I know, I'm ready for it. The Eagles continue to 0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.880 battle injuries. Okay, they lose this tough game to the Pack. 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:02.760 They easily could have won that game, you know, had 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.280 Nelson Agiler been able to hold onto a football, which, 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:07.280 by the way, is always one of the most confounding 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:11.520 things to me that these individuals. Agaler is a superior athlete. 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:15.080 His whole life has been dedicated to, you know, being 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:17.320 a wide receiver, and the fact that he has all 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.560 these drops always just strikes me as a little odd 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.600 to watch professional football players like that. But regardless, they 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:25.600 hang in this game, they easily could have won it 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.000 despite the fact that they had no Jordan Howard. They 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.960 had no Alshon Jeffery, so certainly not a terrible effort, 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.680 and their defense is fine. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, they just 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.240 they find a way to win every game. They're coming 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.160 off a bye. Tyler Lockett's injury doesn't look serious. I 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:43.680 don't think the Seahawks are a powerhouse team. I think 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:46.280 the Eagles are just a little overrated, and I think 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:50.680 betting against Russell Wilson is just not a profitable endeavor 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:52.440 at this point. So you sound like you have a 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:53.720 little bit of a different take. So how do you 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.360 feel on Eagles laying two and a half at home 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:57.040 with an over under and now at forty eight? 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:01.920 I think this line is fair. The my knee jerk 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.919 is just that the number playing the number in and 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:09.040 of itself, You're getting some value in not laying the 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:13.000 field goal with the Eagles here, But once you start 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.840 looking at the x's and o's and who's lining up, 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:20.800 I'm very afraid of this Eagles offense and their inability 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.879 to move the ball. They predominantly want to sit in 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:28.320 twelve with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Godert on the field. 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:31.639 But there's probably no worse team to want to play 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:35.399 twelve against than the Seahawks because they're coverage abilities at 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:38.679 linebacker with Wagner and kJ Wright are just off the charts, 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.399 plus they're coming off the buy. I think this is just, 0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:44.320 at the end of the day, a very very fair 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:46.960 number and unless it moves then ey of the direction, 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:49.320 I think it's a stay away for me. I am 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:52.399 very intrigued though, at how much the public is just 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.479 dumping on the Eagles. They're taking the Hawks at an 0:17:56.520 --> 0:18:00.720 eighty three percent clip ninety percent of them money, so. 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.240 That's what that's what's dropping the spread here, right, I 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:06.120 mean the look ahead was three, it's actually two now 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:08.159 at the consensus thoughts. I looked at it before we 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:10.080 started recording and I had it at two and a half. 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:12.920 So it is just dropping very quickly, and that's I 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:16.600 completely agree. I mean, I hate being so aligned with 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:18.639 the public at this point, you know, but this is 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.000 not something where you know eighty three percent of the 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.040 money is coming in on the Seahawks and you know 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:25.239 fifty percent of the money is coming in, right, I mean, 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.160 the bet the amount of money coming in is aligned 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.320 with the number of bets that are coming in. So 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:33.240