Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Bett MGM. I am your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady. It is time for our early look
Speaker 1: at next week's lines, and with me to break it
Speaker 1: all down is Rich Ryan, host of the Gridiron Gamble podcast.
Speaker 1: You can find Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan. Rich.
Speaker 1: Thanks again for coming back on the show. How's it going.
Speaker 2: It's doing good. It's a victory Monday for us miserable
Speaker 2: Jets fans, which they come few and far between nowadays.
Speaker 1: Second in a row. Thh man, I mean, let's go.
Speaker 1: We're an unstoppable juggernaut. Now, you were saying right before
Speaker 1: you got on that you are actually going? Are you
Speaker 1: going this weekend? Next weekend? When are you going to
Speaker 1: the game? I'm going to the game.
Speaker 2: We'll be discussing later in this podcast this weekend, heading
Speaker 2: back east from South Orange County out here in California
Speaker 2: to New Jersey to watch our fight in New York
Speaker 2: Jets take on the Oakland.
Speaker 1: Oh baby, Well, I look forward to hearing your thoughts
Speaker 1: on that, because it's actually kind of an interesting line
Speaker 1: at least from my perspective. So we are going to
Speaker 1: get into that and all the games on the week
Speaker 1: twelve slate, and when we do, we're going to be
Speaker 1: using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. And
Speaker 1: you surely know by now that the consensus odds over
Speaker 1: there are the aggregation of odds that are available on
Speaker 1: the market. As always, there are differences in the various
Speaker 1: sports books, so when you're looking shop around, but there
Speaker 1: are occasionally, you know, outliers there that you can really
Speaker 1: take advantage of. And also if you ever want to
Speaker 1: see how I or any of the top sports betting
Speaker 1: experts are leaning on any given bet at any given time,
Speaker 1: you can see that also on bettingpros dot com. All right, Rich,
Speaker 1: let's dive right in here with the Thursday night game.
Speaker 1: You've got the Colts at the Texans. The Texans here
Speaker 1: laying three and a half and the over under at
Speaker 1: forty five and a half. There's a lot to on
Speaker 1: back here with you know, both teams. Really the Colts
Speaker 1: grab the big win against the Jaguars, but they lose
Speaker 1: Marlon Mack to a fractured hand. He's certainly not going
Speaker 1: to play in this game, and probably not for the
Speaker 1: foreseeable future. It's going to be some doination of Jordan
Speaker 1: Wilkins or Jonathan Williams and naihim Hines. We've got possibly
Speaker 1: t Y Hilton making it back today. There was a
Speaker 1: positive report from him in practice, So it's unclear a
Speaker 1: little bit what we're going to see out of this offense.
Speaker 1: On the Texan side, pretty embarrassed by Baltimore. There's really
Speaker 1: no shame in that. Baltimore is just a total juggernaut
Speaker 1: at the moment. But the Shaun Watson, he gets beat
Speaker 1: up pretty good. Maybe will Fuller returns here at the least.
Speaker 1: I mean, you assume that the Texans are going to
Speaker 1: be pretty angry looking to bounce back. So how do
Speaker 1: you feel here about laying three and a half at
Speaker 1: home over under forty five and a half?
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot here, and on the short week,
Speaker 2: it makes things even more interesting. This is a four
Speaker 2: and a half look ahead, moved down a point. Colt's
Speaker 2: bouncing back with Brissette under center, and like you said,
Speaker 2: Texans embarrassed by the Ravens last week at home. But
Speaker 2: it looks like both the bets and the money are
Speaker 2: pouring in on Houston. I'm seeing sixty six percent of
Speaker 2: the bets, seventy six percent of the money, and I
Speaker 2: think I kind of agree with them. And if you
Speaker 2: look at that Texans Ravens game, obviously, one of the
Speaker 2: things that everybody talked about today was the missed pass
Speaker 2: interference on that deep ball to DeAndre Hopkins and the
Speaker 2: subsequent stand call on the challenge of the PI, and
Speaker 2: that game just kind of got away from the Texans
Speaker 2: and it is an embarrassing spot, especially coming off of
Speaker 2: a bye and the Ravens coming off of that massive
Speaker 2: Patriots game. You would think that would be a nice
Speaker 2: merge for the Texans to take advantage of it. They
Speaker 2: just kind of got steamrolled there. I think we're getting
Speaker 2: a bit of value with that line coming down these
Speaker 2: two teams, in addition to leaning a little bit towards
Speaker 2: three and a half. Last time they went out, they
Speaker 2: combined for fifty three points. Right now, the total sitting
Speaker 2: at forty five and a half. So if there's more
Speaker 2: positive news on t Y Hilts, and I think I'm
Speaker 2: leaning towards the over as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with the over. At the very least,
Speaker 1: I do think that this is going to be a
Speaker 1: game that's going to be high scoring on Thursday nights.
Speaker 1: The defenses, they just have such a short time to
Speaker 1: recover from those you know, hard hitting games that they
Speaker 1: have the day before. As you said, a lot is
Speaker 1: going to depend on what we see from the Colts
Speaker 1: practice reports. It's really tough on that Thursday game. But
Speaker 1: I agree with you, and you know, I look at
Speaker 1: the game and I feel like, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: feel like I should like the Texans at three and
Speaker 1: a half, but I do. I certainly lean that way.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna move very much, as you said,
Speaker 1: you know, originally you know that the line has come down,
Speaker 1: but there is a lot of money coming in on
Speaker 1: the Texans at this point. So I do like them
Speaker 1: at three and a half, and I do like the
Speaker 1: over right now at forty five and a half, even
Speaker 1: without having the details on what's going to happen with
Speaker 1: you know, some of the Colts skill players, because I
Speaker 1: do think they'll still be able to put up points regardless.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the bucks at the Falcons.
Speaker 1: Falcons here are laying four and a half and the
Speaker 1: over under is at fifty two and a half. That's
Speaker 1: come down a bit. It was at fifty four when
Speaker 1: I checked yesterday. I'm not really sure what has gotten
Speaker 1: into the Falcons here. Things are really working for them
Speaker 1: right now. They still cannot run the ball effectively, but
Speaker 1: the passing offense looks to be just fine even without
Speaker 1: Mohammed Sanu or Austin Hooper. It's really about their defense
Speaker 1: that has suddenly come alive, both against the Saints and
Speaker 1: then yesterday against the Panthers. Meanwhile, we know exactly what
Speaker 1: the Bucks are at this point. Elite run defense, awful
Speaker 1: pass defense, and Jameis Winston is going to throw a
Speaker 1: few backbreaking interceptions or turn the ball over by a
Speaker 1: fumble at the worst possible time. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel here about the Falcons at home lank four and
Speaker 1: a half with a total of fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2: Who are these Atlanta Falcons?
Speaker 1: I've been described. Everybody was screaming, you know, for the
Speaker 1: coach to be fired, and suddenly, you know, Quinn just
Speaker 1: got them turned around and playing well. I don't know
Speaker 1: how it happened, but it happened.
Speaker 2: And this is who Quinn is supposed to be, right,
Speaker 2: He's a pete Carroll guy, part of that Seahawks defense
Speaker 2: transitioned to Atlanta, and that was the strength when Dion
Speaker 2: Jones first came into the league, Devondre Campbell, all these guys,
Speaker 2: and they started off real slow, but now they're getting going.
Speaker 2: You've got Claiborne and Jared up front really getting after it.
Speaker 2: So I don't know, honestly what to make of this
Speaker 2: Falcons team. You look at some of the sabermetrics or sabermetrics,
Speaker 2: not baseball but like PFF and football outsiders, and I
Speaker 2: don't know how much we can actually account the first
Speaker 2: couple games of the year. I think they're muddying the
Speaker 2: sample a little bit. So my knee jerk reaction is
Speaker 2: that the Falcons are being overvalued off of two wins,
Speaker 2: and that we should be looking to take the points
Speaker 2: with the Bucks, maybe even dabble in the plus one
Speaker 2: ninety on the money line. But I just I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maybe sharper people than me will take advantage of this,
Speaker 2: because when there's uncertainty in the market, that's when there's
Speaker 2: value to be had. But the Falcons new trend of
Speaker 2: being awesome just makes me very wary of this game
Speaker 2: on all angles.
Speaker 1: This strikes me as a game that's going to be
Speaker 1: pretty split between sharp beetters and public. I think the
Speaker 1: public are gonna back the Falcons because I think everybody
Speaker 1: is a really short memory, and the Falcons are playing
Speaker 1: great and the Bucks just keep throwing it away. So
Speaker 1: I bet you though the shart better is because you
Speaker 1: know the models are going to say that the Bucks
Speaker 1: are much better than their record indicates. But I'll be honest,
Speaker 1: I've lost enough money betting on Jameis Winston so far
Speaker 1: this year and it's not something that I would feel
Speaker 1: comfortable taking advantage of. If anything, i'd lean the Falcons.
Speaker 1: But again, I'm just not able to process what exactly
Speaker 1: has changed. And again they were beat up on defense.
Speaker 1: It's not like they're that much healthier suddenly that their
Speaker 1: defense is going to be playing at this elite level
Speaker 1: that it's been at right now. But still, especially with Winston,
Speaker 1: you know, at the very end of that game he
Speaker 1: was against the Saints, he was limping a lot. Now,
Speaker 1: Bruce arians said that the ankle injury is fine, so
Speaker 1: hopefully it is. But in the end, look, it's just
Speaker 1: it's not a game that I feel real comfortable backing
Speaker 1: you know, the Bucks for sure, and the Falcons well,
Speaker 1: I like it just it feels like a game where
Speaker 1: the public's going to love them, and that's also not
Speaker 1: something I want to know. So I could see this
Speaker 1: being a Thursday game where we list one game where
Speaker 1: we stay away that this one being the one that
Speaker 1: I'll avoid at all costs.
Speaker 2: The Bucks are the alternate line team. Man, I'm telling
Speaker 2: you fire Falcons minus ten and a half alternate and
Speaker 2: Fire Bucks money line. You'll probably win money in the
Speaker 2: long run.
Speaker 1: I like it all right. Let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Dolphins at the Browns. Browns a whopping eleven point favorite
Speaker 1: over under here at forty four and a half. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Browns are looking a little better this day. These days.
Speaker 1: I think Kareem Hunt actually really opened up the offense.
Speaker 1: And more about the fact that when he plays with
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt, I think that might be their best I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: whitn't he plays with Chubb? That might be their best setup.
Speaker 1: The way they've got it going on, Their defense is
Speaker 1: getting healthier in the secondary. They're obviously not going to
Speaker 1: have Miles Garrett here, which hurts their pass rush. But
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, who had won a couple of games are
Speaker 1: kind of coming back down to earth. They get dominated
Speaker 1: by the Bills. In this last game, Devontae Parker continues
Speaker 1: to be really the only consistent part of their team
Speaker 1: on either side of the ball. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel here about the Browns at home? Off kind of
Speaker 1: the mini by laying eleven over under forty four and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: A couple extra days rest, and it's so funny. It's
Speaker 2: almost like Freddie Kitchens waited nine weeks to roll out
Speaker 2: this twenty one personnel with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb
Speaker 2: on the field at the same time, and it's really
Speaker 2: unlocked something in this offense. It's allowed the offensive line
Speaker 2: to have less time to block. Right, they've been struggling
Speaker 2: upfront and things have not been working out downfield when
Speaker 2: getting the ball to Obj. But when you can throw
Speaker 2: shorter to either Hunt or Chubb, you can give that
Speaker 2: offensive line a little bit of help there by letting
Speaker 2: Baker give rid of the ball quickly. And honestly, Baker's
Speaker 2: really a timing quarterback. He's not somebody that's gonna do
Speaker 2: your like Bruce arians seven step drop and just chuck
Speaker 2: the ball down the field. He's very much a timing thrower,
Speaker 2: so everything's been in rhythm and looked great. And yeah,
Speaker 2: the mini buy as well has really helped. The public
Speaker 2: is still loving the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I mean, was just gonna say that that's crazy to me.
Speaker 2: Obviously, they covered five straights, so they were putting money
Speaker 2: in everybody's pockets. But yeah, thirty one percent of tickets
Speaker 2: on the Browns forty percent of the money. So the
Speaker 2: public is once again lining up to take the points
Speaker 2: with the Dolphins, and I kind of think they're rights.
Speaker 2: I mean, in order to cover ten and a half,
Speaker 2: you have to be consistently getting out to a lead
Speaker 2: and extending the lead over a large sample, and I
Speaker 2: don't know if the Browns are built to do that,
Speaker 2: so I think you have to take the points here.
Speaker 1: Now, I completely agree that there is value in the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I mean anything when you get to double digits, it
Speaker 1: just makes me just be like, oh man, I want
Speaker 1: to take that, because you know, getting that many points
Speaker 1: and I did it with the Bengals pretty much Assie's
Speaker 1: and long. It hasn't always worked out, but you want
Speaker 1: to take a look at that. And for the public
Speaker 1: side of it, my guess is Frankly, again I say
Speaker 1: this most weeks, but the overwhelming bets in the preseason
Speaker 1: were on Mayfield to win MVP and the Browns to
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. So I think they the public
Speaker 1: got so beat down by the Browns that they're just
Speaker 1: running the other way. And again, the Dolphins have been
Speaker 1: a team that covered this past week. But for the
Speaker 1: most part, overall, it's not a game that I want
Speaker 1: any part of. And there are a lot of games
Speaker 1: like that on this slate, Frankly, but you know, with
Speaker 1: the Browns laying eleven points, I see the value with
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, but they're not at the point right now
Speaker 1: given just I mean again, at some point, you know,
Speaker 1: all the injuries are taking their told, even on a
Speaker 1: team with a team like the Dolphins that doesn't have
Speaker 1: that much talent. You know, once you lose Preston Williams
Speaker 1: and even you know, Mark Walton, who wasn't anything great,
Speaker 1: but you know he was at least Kalen Bilage is
Speaker 1: probably the worst running back in football, you know, and
Speaker 1: he's getting carries and on the defensive side when you
Speaker 1: lost Staving Howard. So again, it's just not it's something
Speaker 1: where I see the value in the Dolphins, But I
Speaker 1: really don't think I could take it so long as
Speaker 1: it sticks in double digits, which I'm sure it will.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kaylin Bilage's player profile photo is next to the
Speaker 2: word plod in the dictionary.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really it's a remarkable level of utility.
Speaker 2: Frankly and the Brown's defensive lineman. Obviously, everybody knows they're
Speaker 2: not gonna be without Miles Garrett, but Ogunjobi missing this
Speaker 2: game for pushing Rudolph after that melee is well, I mean,
Speaker 2: they're gonna have zero pass rush in this game. So
Speaker 2: really a tough spot for a Browns team that should be,
Speaker 2: you know, coming off of a big division win the
Speaker 2: mini bye, like you noted, this should be them entering
Speaker 2: into like a late season bloom and unfortunately kind of
Speaker 2: a rough spot for them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you bet against Fitsmagic at your own risk. Let's
Speaker 1: move on here to the Giants at the Bears this game.
Speaker 1: I'm just I don't know what the spread could be
Speaker 1: on this game where I'd feel comfortable with it. But
Speaker 1: the spread that it is currently at is Bear's laying
Speaker 1: six and a half with an over under at forty
Speaker 1: and a half. That's down at least a point from
Speaker 1: what I checked on last night. We know we've got
Speaker 1: the Mitch Trubisky injury that's kind of hanging up in
Speaker 1: the air. He reportedly had the hit pointer last night.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of grumblings, but maybe that's not true.
Speaker 1: Who knows. I honestly don't think it makes a difference
Speaker 1: if you go to Chase Daniel or not. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure it's a downgrade at this point. Trubisky has just
Speaker 1: been playing so terribly. The Giants coming off the by
Speaker 1: still does not sound like they're gonna have Evan Ingram here.
Speaker 1: Maybe Sterling Shepherd he practiced today. Hopefully Sequon Parkley, you know,
Speaker 1: got a little bit banged up in that Jets game.
Speaker 1: Hopefully he's back good. How do you feel about the Bears?
Speaker 1: Who I mean, betting on the Bears under basically has
Speaker 1: been just a super solid strategy this whole year. I
Speaker 1: think there's seven to three against it. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about the Bears lank six and a half at
Speaker 1: home to the Giants with an over under at forty
Speaker 1: and a half. That's the correct reaction, just to be clear.
Speaker 2: So a couple of weeks back, our Gridiron Gamble Super
Speaker 2: Contest card. We had the Bears as short home favorites
Speaker 2: against the Vikings, and not that we're the ones to
Speaker 2: celebrate injuries, but we were quite happy to see Chase
Speaker 2: Daniel get any quarterback sure when Mitch Trubisky was removed
Speaker 2: from that game. I agree with you. I don't think
Speaker 2: when this game opens, if Chase Daniel is the starting quarterback,
Speaker 2: which all things are trending in that direction, I don't
Speaker 2: think it moves off of this six and a half line.
Speaker 2: That is in some places, certainly here in this betting
Speaker 2: Pro's portal. I don't love either side at the number.
Speaker 2: I do think the Bears are certainly a teaser candidate.
Speaker 2: They though at six and a half. Get them down
Speaker 2: to a half point, and I do like the over
Speaker 2: in this game forty and a half. This Giants defense
Speaker 2: stinks like it is horrific, and if we can get
Speaker 2: Chase Daniel back there, I think that they can score
Speaker 2: enough to get this pass that over the Bear. The
Speaker 2: Giants are gonna be able to move the ball, and
Speaker 2: Dimes is perfect in both aspects in that he can
Speaker 2: move the ball and get the ball in the end zone,
Speaker 2: or he can hand into the Bears defense, and they
Speaker 2: can score as well. So I'm not in love with
Speaker 2: the number. I do think the Bears are a teaser
Speaker 2: candidate down to a half point, and I do like
Speaker 2: the over on four and a half forty and a
Speaker 2: half here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't like either of these numbers no matter
Speaker 1: what you do. I mean, I agree with you that
Speaker 1: I don't love the under on this one, because again, yeah,
Speaker 1: the thing is, you know, even if the Bears just
Speaker 1: run David Montgomery, you know, all day long, even though
Speaker 1: you know they don't have a great offensive line, but
Speaker 1: against the Giants, who don't really need that to be
Speaker 1: able to move the ball, they should be able to
Speaker 1: go up and down. They you know, the Giants pass
Speaker 1: defense is terrible, Alan Robinson, I expect we'll have a
Speaker 1: bounce back game after getting shut down by Jaylen Ramsey
Speaker 1: and again on the other side of the ball. Look,
Speaker 1: the Bears defense is just not anything close to what
Speaker 1: it was. You can certainly run on them. Barkley's probably
Speaker 1: gonna have a big day, and if Shepard comes back,
Speaker 1: that's just going to give the Giants another weapon. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess as much as I've been leaning
Speaker 1: on the under the over does strike me as right
Speaker 1: if I had to go one way or another, But
Speaker 1: at six and a half, I'm just not going anywhere
Speaker 1: near this game whatsoever. And I agree though I do
Speaker 1: expect the Bears to win, so teasing it down sounds
Speaker 1: like a good idea to me. Let's move on here
Speaker 1: to the Seahawks at the Eagles. The Eagles here are
Speaker 1: laying two and a half and the over unders at
Speaker 1: forty eight. I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised by
Speaker 1: this line. I thought it would be closer to a
Speaker 1: pick them. I mean, the Eagles. They continue the battle. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I know, I'm ready for it. The Eagles continue to
Speaker 1: battle injuries. Okay, they lose this tough game to the Pack.
Speaker 1: They easily could have won that game, you know, had
Speaker 1: Nelson Agiler been able to hold onto a football, which,
Speaker 1: by the way, is always one of the most confounding
Speaker 1: things to me that these individuals. Agaler is a superior athlete.
Speaker 1: His whole life has been dedicated to, you know, being
Speaker 1: a wide receiver, and the fact that he has all
Speaker 1: these drops always just strikes me as a little odd
Speaker 1: to watch professional football players like that. But regardless, they
Speaker 1: hang in this game, they easily could have won it
Speaker 1: despite the fact that they had no Jordan Howard. They
Speaker 1: had no Alshon Jeffery, so certainly not a terrible effort,
Speaker 1: and their defense is fine. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, they just
Speaker 1: they find a way to win every game. They're coming
Speaker 1: off a bye. Tyler Lockett's injury doesn't look serious. I
Speaker 1: don't think the Seahawks are a powerhouse team. I think
Speaker 1: the Eagles are just a little overrated, and I think
Speaker 1: betting against Russell Wilson is just not a profitable endeavor
Speaker 1: at this point. So you sound like you have a
Speaker 1: little bit of a different take. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel on Eagles laying two and a half at home
Speaker 1: with an over under and now at forty eight?
Speaker 2: I think this line is fair. The my knee jerk
Speaker 2: is just that the number playing the number in and
Speaker 2: of itself, You're getting some value in not laying the
Speaker 2: field goal with the Eagles here, But once you start
Speaker 2: looking at the x's and o's and who's lining up,
Speaker 2: I'm very afraid of this Eagles offense and their inability
Speaker 2: to move the ball. They predominantly want to sit in
Speaker 2: twelve with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Godert on the field.
Speaker 2: But there's probably no worse team to want to play
Speaker 2: twelve against than the Seahawks because they're coverage abilities at
Speaker 2: linebacker with Wagner and kJ Wright are just off the charts,
Speaker 2: plus they're coming off the buy. I think this is just,
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, a very very fair
Speaker 2: number and unless it moves then ey of the direction,
Speaker 2: I think it's a stay away for me. I am
Speaker 2: very intrigued though, at how much the public is just
Speaker 2: dumping on the Eagles. They're taking the Hawks at an
Speaker 2: eighty three percent clip ninety percent of them money, so.
Speaker 1: That's what that's what's dropping the spread here, right, I
Speaker 1: mean the look ahead was three, it's actually two now
Speaker 1: at the consensus thoughts. I looked at it before we
Speaker 1: started recording and I had it at two and a half.
Speaker 1: So it is just dropping very quickly, and that's I
Speaker 1: completely agree. I mean, I hate being so aligned with
Speaker 1: the public at this point, you know, but this is
Speaker 1: not something where you know eighty three percent of the
Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Seahawks and you know
Speaker 1: fifty percent of the money is coming in, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: the bet the amount of money coming in is aligned
Speaker 1: with the number of bets that are coming in. So
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, this strikes me as a mistake here.
Speaker 1: I think the Eagles are fine, but what you know,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks they do this every single game. You know,
Speaker 1: they just managed to hang in there long enough for
Speaker 1: Wilson to do his thing. And if they're getting points,
Speaker 1: not that it really matters if it was a pick them.
Speaker 1: If they're going to get one, if they're going to
Speaker 1: get two, not that big a deal. But for me,
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think they messed. I think
Speaker 1: the Eagles are being overvalued a little bit by the bookmakers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I still have some great grave concerns about this.
Speaker 2: See this Eagle secondary. I think yesterday or Sunday, sorry
Speaker 2: for those of you that listen to that are listening
Speaker 2: to this.
Speaker 1: Later in the week.
Speaker 2: I think that poor offensive performance was more indicative of
Speaker 2: the Patriots' inability to move the ball as opposed to
Speaker 2: the Eagles really clamping down on d I do not
Speaker 2: love that secondary. So yeah, again, I think this is
Speaker 2: a fair line. And yeah, holding a ticket while number
Speaker 2: three is running around out there like a chicken with
Speaker 2: his head cut off. Puts the fear of God in me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I will almost certainly be taking the Seahawks
Speaker 1: in the Super Contest as long as they remain getting points.
Speaker 1: So I'll just put that out there and they may
Speaker 1: be one of my best bets on Thursday after I
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Speaker 1: move on here to the Panthers at the Saints. Saints
Speaker 1: here are laying nine and a half and it's moving up,
Speaker 1: and the over under is at forty seven. At the moment.
Speaker 1: Panthers starting to get a little bit exposed here on
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. Kyle Allen throws four picks
Speaker 1: against that suddenly incredible Falcons defense that we've been talking about,
Speaker 1: and their passing defense, which is usually strong, it's struggling
Speaker 1: a little bit, but they're pretty desperate at this point.
Speaker 1: They really need to win. Meanwhile, the Saints write the
Speaker 1: ship against the Bucks. Now they're coming home, they'll probably
Speaker 1: still be down Marshawn Lattimore here. It sounds like his
Speaker 1: injury is going to keep him out at least another week.
Speaker 1: But you know, the offense continues to hum. Their run
Speaker 1: defense it's great and you'll need it against McCaffrey. So
Speaker 1: how do you feel here? Saints at home laning nine
Speaker 1: and a half points and the over under at forty seven.
Speaker 2: Feels like an auto bed on Carolina. To me, it's
Speaker 2: two converging ideas. One what team looked the best last
Speaker 2: week in professional football? What team looked the worst last
Speaker 2: week in professional football. They're coming together here this look
Speaker 2: ahead with six and a half, we're moving it a
Speaker 2: full field goal because Kyle Allen had his first really
Speaker 2: horrific professional game. There's just too much value in the
Speaker 2: number here, especially if Latimore is out. He's a problem
Speaker 2: missing in that secondary, So way too many points. I
Speaker 2: think you just have to close your eyes, pinch your nose,
Speaker 2: and take the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: And let me ask you something. Can you see it
Speaker 1: getting past ten? And I kind of can? I kind
Speaker 1: of can, man, I'm telling you, I think the public
Speaker 1: is going to pound the Saints here. I know it
Speaker 1: hasn't come in yet, but I could see them really
Speaker 1: pounding it. I could see it getting higher. I think
Speaker 1: if you like the Panthers, you don't need to move
Speaker 1: right now. I don't really see it coming back down
Speaker 1: below the nine and a half. I mean maybe nine.
Speaker 1: I guess I could see, you know, if everything breaks away,
Speaker 1: But to me, I think nine and a half is
Speaker 1: kind of your floor here, and I could see it
Speaker 1: getting past the key number of ten. I know that's crazy,
Speaker 1: but I think that when this starts coming in, I
Speaker 1: think the public is going to be looking at the slate.
Speaker 1: They're not going to love what they see. The Saints
Speaker 1: are public team, they're going to like them, and I
Speaker 1: think they hate it's going to go far. So if
Speaker 1: you like the Panthers, I'm not sure you need to
Speaker 1: jump on it right now. I don't think you're going
Speaker 1: to lose any value going forward.
Speaker 2: Interesting ten's a lot. I think the amount of liability
Speaker 2: they might receive if they move to ten would be
Speaker 2: so heavy that they're more comfortable taking all this money
Speaker 2: at minus nine and a half or minus eight and
Speaker 2: a half wherever it is on here and just kind
Speaker 2: of needing the Panthers as opposed to pushing it to
Speaker 2: ten and maybe balancing a little bit more. I think
Speaker 2: the books are okay having an opinion here and wanting
Speaker 2: Carolina plus the nine and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's go to the game that you're
Speaker 1: going to be at. Raiders. Go that Raiders laying three
Speaker 1: over under forty five and a half. This's dropped significantly
Speaker 1: over here. Initially, I really want to hear your thoughts
Speaker 1: on this, because initially it felt like a little bit
Speaker 1: of a surprising line to me. I mean, the Raiders
Speaker 1: did not dominate the Bengals or anything. But we've seen
Speaker 1: enough of them to know that they're a pretty quality
Speaker 1: team sort of on both sides of the ball at
Speaker 1: this point. And when you look at though, when I
Speaker 1: looked at it a little closer, you look at how
Speaker 1: the two teams match up, considering that the Jets are
Speaker 1: at home and it's a West Coast team traveling east
Speaker 1: never really a great thing for the Raiders, and their
Speaker 1: history kind of makes sense. I mean, it's not like
Speaker 1: the Raiders have these dominant wide receivers the type that
Speaker 1: can give the Jets trouble because they have nothing in
Speaker 1: their cornerbacks. They can stop the run, but they struggle
Speaker 1: to stop the past. They don't get all that much
Speaker 1: pressure on the quarterback, which kind of is the only
Speaker 1: thing keeping Sam Darnold upright. So the Jets are coming
Speaker 1: off two straight wins here, as we talked about, So
Speaker 1: how do you feel here about the Raiders laying three
Speaker 1: with an over under forty five and a half?
Speaker 2: Feels a little disrespectful not gonna lie three? Look at
Speaker 2: why does this move up a half points? Raiders fail
Speaker 2: to cover against a really, really bad Bengals team. They
Speaker 2: had a chance there deep in the red zone, but
Speaker 2: got a I believe Richie with Richie Incognito, jumped off
Speaker 2: sides there and it ended up kicking a field goal
Speaker 2: in a spot where they could have scored a touchdown
Speaker 2: to cover. No way that I was laying points there,
Speaker 2: and I'm salty at all of that penalty, none whatsoever,
Speaker 2: But yet moves a half point in the Raiders direction.
Speaker 2: The numbers here are telling me that the sharps are
Speaker 2: coming in on the Jets right now. Fifty three percent
Speaker 2: of the tickets are on them, but eighty two percent
Speaker 2: of the money.
Speaker 1: I gotta lean.
Speaker 2: Jets here, But I'm definitely afraid of this secondary. As
Speaker 2: porous as the Raiders offensive weapons may be, I'm not
Speaker 2: worried about hunter Renfro taking the top off. I am
Speaker 2: still concerned with the cornerbacks on the field for the
Speaker 2: Jets and the linebackers as well, because we're gonna have
Speaker 2: to be dealing with Darren Waller on some of these
Speaker 2: routes as well. But you did bring up a very
Speaker 2: important point, and that's the biggest weakness for the Jets
Speaker 2: is their offensive line. And if you can't generate a
Speaker 2: pass for us, then you can't take advantage of this
Speaker 2: large weakness and Sam can just stand back there and
Speaker 2: throw some darts. He looked amazing against Washington because they
Speaker 2: were able to keep him up right, So I think
Speaker 2: three and a half is just a bit too heavy.
Speaker 2: At three, I think the line is a little more fair.
Speaker 2: But we're getting a ton of value just in that
Speaker 2: hook right there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, right now, it's if you look at the
Speaker 1: various sportsbooks, it's bouncing between three and three and a half.
Speaker 1: So for us, the consensus line actually is at three.
Speaker 1: So I think it's fine there, but I agree there
Speaker 1: are some books that are laying three and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I know, I kind of
Speaker 1: like the over, I will say, especially now that it's
Speaker 1: dropped at forty five and a half, because I think
Speaker 1: both these teams are going to be able to put
Speaker 1: up points. But again, you know, it's just it's a
Speaker 1: matchup where, you know, the offense really runs through Josh
Speaker 1: Jacobs at this point, and the one thing that the
Speaker 1: Jets can do is stop the run. And it's not
Speaker 1: like Jake is really much of a pass threat. He's
Speaker 1: catching more passes now, but he's not one of these backs,
Speaker 1: it's going to sneak out and really dominate you through
Speaker 1: the air, like you know, Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara,
Speaker 1: anything close to that. And the wide receivers Tyrell Williams
Speaker 1: is fine, but he's battling Planter Fasciatis Hunter Renfroze. Okay,
Speaker 1: Waller is definitely good. But yeah, it just doesn't seem
Speaker 1: like the best matchup for the type of offense that
Speaker 1: the Raiders have. And I agree that this is the
Speaker 1: type of game where the Jets are going to be
Speaker 1: able to put up points. So for me, I kind
Speaker 1: of like the total here now that it's dropped a
Speaker 1: few points to forty five and a half. I don't
Speaker 1: have real strong feelings about the spread right now at
Speaker 1: three or three and a half. I certainly did not
Speaker 1: feel like it was disrespectful. I feel like, you know,
Speaker 1: I think I maybe have a higher opinion of the
Speaker 1: Raiders than you do. But for me, love the Raiders.
Speaker 2: I was telling people. I was telling people, take a
Speaker 2: taste on Raiders plus four hundred to win the West.
Speaker 1: Oh, all right, I like it. Well, anyway, it should
Speaker 1: be an interesting I'm sure the line's going to stay
Speaker 1: roughly at three or three and a half, but again,
Speaker 1: the total of forty five and a half, I'm kind
Speaker 1: of feeling like that is a bet that I'll want
Speaker 1: to be making this week because I do feel like
Speaker 1: both teams are going to be able to put up points.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Broncos at the Bills.
Speaker 1: Bills here laying four and a half and the over
Speaker 1: under at thirty seven and a half. I think I
Speaker 1: saw it yesterday and it was thirty five and a half,
Speaker 1: which is insane. So the fact that it's at least
Speaker 1: just now a really low number instead of a crazy
Speaker 1: low number makes me feel a little better. The Broncos here,
Speaker 1: they blow the twenty point halftime lead to the Vikings,
Speaker 1: but they continue to show that they're not this pushover
Speaker 1: even with Brandon Allen at quarterback. A few things break
Speaker 1: differently for them, you know, even with Joe Flacco, they
Speaker 1: really could have been in the mix out there in
Speaker 1: the West. The defense remained strong after they didn't trade
Speaker 1: really any of their big pieces. Meanwhile, the Bills continue
Speaker 1: to play well. But this is kind of going to
Speaker 1: be the first real test for Josh Allen, you know,
Speaker 1: other than when he played against the Patriots where he
Speaker 1: didn't have a great game, so I'm really going to
Speaker 1: be interested to see how he's able to do. Defense
Speaker 1: is solid, They're still a bit vulnerable against the run,
Speaker 1: which could make for a good day for Philip Lindsay.
Speaker 1: And again the over under and now, when I first
Speaker 1: saw it, I was like thirty five and a half.
Speaker 1: Goodness gracious at thirty seven and a half, still really low.
Speaker 1: But how do you feel about the Bills? Lank four
Speaker 1: and a half at home with the total at thirty
Speaker 1: seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Broncos another team that started off very slow defensively, but
Speaker 2: have come on as of late. And it's very weird
Speaker 2: that it all happened after the Bradley Chubb injury. There
Speaker 2: were rumblings that Vic Fangio's defense is extremely complex and
Speaker 2: it took a little bit for them to understand some
Speaker 2: of the concepts, and they've really really rounded into form
Speaker 2: and looked pretty great these last couple of weeks. And
Speaker 2: anytime Josh Allen goes up against the defense with a
Speaker 2: pulse that definitely puts some fear into me. I liked
Speaker 2: this more at the opener at five and a half. Unsurprisingly,
Speaker 2: it's starting to come down, and if you look at
Speaker 2: these numbers, man, it seems like the sharps are really
Speaker 2: pounding the Broncos here because fifty seven percent of the
Speaker 2: tickets are on the bills, but eighty five percent of
Speaker 2: the money is on the Broncos. So hopefully out there
Speaker 2: you were able to grab a five and a half
Speaker 2: ticket as it comes down, I'm less intrigued about Denver.
Speaker 2: Brandon Allen on the road is just the scariest Josh
Speaker 2: Allen against a good defense. But yeah, I still think
Speaker 2: there might be a little bit of value on a
Speaker 2: really well coached Broncos team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I actually agree with you there. I
Speaker 1: do think that, you know, even at four and a half,
Speaker 1: I think the value is still with the Broncos. My
Speaker 1: only concern again is, you know, as I mentioned a
Speaker 1: couple of times here, I went to school in Buffalo.
Speaker 1: That place is a really really difficult place to play
Speaker 1: once it starts getting a little cold and a little
Speaker 1: windy like it is now. So it's something where I
Speaker 1: get a little worried about it. But I think the
Speaker 1: Broncos are just a much better football team than people
Speaker 1: give them credit for. Even with Allen back there I mean, look,
Speaker 1: he's still able to move the ball. Courtland Sutton is
Speaker 1: a real real receiver out there. You know, he can
Speaker 1: really do some great things if you just let him
Speaker 1: do his thing and throw it up to him. And again,
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna just pound. You know, the one
Speaker 1: vulnerability of this Bill's defense is against the run, and
Speaker 1: I think you're just gonna see a whole lot of
Speaker 1: Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman put in there, and I
Speaker 1: think they're going to try to control the ball there.
Speaker 1: So you know, if I had to go with the
Speaker 1: over under, by the way, I still would I think,
Speaker 1: probably go with the under at thirty seven and a
Speaker 1: half because I could see both teams just trying to
Speaker 1: run the ball NonStop, which leads to the clock running
Speaker 1: and not that much scoring. But I agree, for right now,
Speaker 1: I would have liked it better at five and a half.
Speaker 1: I still think that there's value in the Broncos at
Speaker 1: four and a half. I'm not saying that I'm going
Speaker 1: to jump all over it, but if I'm looking for value,
Speaker 1: I think that's probably one of the spots.
Speaker 2: Sudden they really open up the playbook for too two
Speaker 2: wide receiver reverses an inside run. I mean, he's just
Speaker 2: a fantastic player. So he's he's one of those guys,
Speaker 2: and I know you do a lot of fancy stuff
Speaker 2: as well, where he's getting into the territory where don't
Speaker 2: care who he's up against, don't care what the cornerback
Speaker 2: receiver matchup is, Courtland Sutton is going to get his.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sunday, he makes some acrobatic catches and you know, look,
Speaker 1: as long as you have the trust to throw it
Speaker 1: up to him and see what he can do, then
Speaker 1: you're liable to come down with good things. And they've
Speaker 1: been doing that lately, even with Allen in there. So
Speaker 1: I do think this is something where you know, probably
Speaker 1: value on the Broncos. Again, don't love it, especially not
Speaker 1: at four and a half, but it's something where I'm
Speaker 1: certainly more than willing to roll with them if in
Speaker 1: the end, like for the Super Contest, where we're desperate
Speaker 1: to find values somewhere, that might be one where I
Speaker 1: might dabble in for the Lions at the Redskins. Lions
Speaker 1: here are laying three and a half in the over
Speaker 1: under at forty two and a half, I think it's
Speaker 1: fair to assume that it's probably still Jeff driscoll here
Speaker 1: for the Lions, but he is able to move the
Speaker 1: ball pretty well against the Cowboys, to be fair. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: perhaps the team has found their first running back since
Speaker 1: Carrie On Johnson went out with Bo Scarborough. Of all people,
Speaker 1: he carried in this game last week. It was a
Speaker 1: revenge game, absolutely for the team that drafted him. He
Speaker 1: ran pretty well. I mean, he's not going to do
Speaker 1: anything in the passing game. You're still going to see JD. McKissick,
Speaker 1: you'll see a little bit of Ti Johnson. But really
Speaker 1: he at least gave them this presence on the ground
Speaker 1: that they haven't really had in a while. So it
Speaker 1: certainly helped the offense. The problem is the defense. They
Speaker 1: remained significantly subpar on defense probably isn't going to matter
Speaker 1: against a Dwayne Haskins led RESK Redskins team. If they
Speaker 1: put up a few points I think seventeen yesterday against
Speaker 1: the Jets, but almost all of that was in garbage time. Haskins,
Speaker 1: it's just really not ready to be an NFL Q
Speaker 1: be especially when you're coming out after a bye. You
Speaker 1: kind of said, okay, he might be able to show
Speaker 1: us something and he really just doesn't. Although you probably
Speaker 1: looked a little better than I expected. They get Darius
Speaker 1: guys involved a little bit here. Terry McLaurin still is
Speaker 1: around and he's a solid wide receiver. So how do
Speaker 1: you feel here about the lines length three and a
Speaker 1: half with the over underd forty two and a half?
Speaker 1: And I assume you, like me, think it's going to
Speaker 1: be Driskell and not Matthew Stafford under center.
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely going to be Driskell Stafford just we get it.
Speaker 2: You're you're an absolute warrior. But I don't think playing
Speaker 2: with a broken hip or broken back, whatever it is,
Speaker 2: is worth it it this part of the season, Lions
Speaker 2: are three to five and one. It's been a long
Speaker 2: year for the Stafford family. Just to go, just go
Speaker 2: take a rest unless you're driving. Put a hand in
Speaker 2: the air if you had both Scarborough and you're dimes
Speaker 2: the team when the Cowboys drafted him, because I did
Speaker 2: hoping that he would somehow crack some attempts behind that
Speaker 2: offensive line with a Zeke injury, but unfortunately not man.
Speaker 2: It is the year twenty nineteen of our Lord in
Speaker 2: Jeff Driscoll's a road favorite in professional football. I don't
Speaker 2: know if I can get down with that. Ninety six
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets are on the Lions, ninety nine
Speaker 2: percent of the money is on Detroit. No, thank you next, Okay,
Speaker 2: I think that that's fair, Matt. It's really not a
Speaker 2: game that I particularly love. I certainly will never be
Speaker 2: backing the Redskins with Dwayne Askins back there, but certainly
Speaker 2: something where I'm not overly excited about the Lions despite
Speaker 2: the love that they are getting from the public. I
Speaker 2: think that's also fair to say Driscoll was kind of
Speaker 2: impressive this past week, but I agree it's very strange
Speaker 2: to look at a Jeff Driscoll led team and see
Speaker 2: them favored by three and a half points. So let's
Speaker 2: move on here.
Speaker 1: But before we finish up with our last few games,
Speaker 1: I do want to remind everyone about our giveaway. It's
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Speaker 1: let's move on here to the Steelers at the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Steelers here are laying seven with an over under at
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half. This is just a very
Speaker 1: tough one to analyze because we don't really know who's
Speaker 1: gonna be out there for the Steelers on offense. I
Speaker 1: think we can assume that James Connor is probably going
Speaker 1: to be out after reaggravated his shoulder injury. That's gonna
Speaker 1: leave Jayalen Samuels and Trey Edmonds in the backfield. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: Juju smith Schuster not only leaves with the concussion, but
Speaker 1: he's also apparently battling a knee injury, making it a
Speaker 1: little more unlikely. They signed a few wide receivers off
Speaker 1: the street today, so I'd have to bet that smith
Speaker 1: Schuster doesn't play Deontae Johnson. I mean, given how scary
Speaker 1: that concussion look, do, you probably have to assume he's
Speaker 1: not gonna play. So it's really just about their defense,
Speaker 1: which does remain strong, which is a problem so long
Speaker 1: as Ryan Finley remains the quarterback for the Bengals, because
Speaker 1: he's really not getting it done. I mean, they did
Speaker 1: hang in there against the Raiders, but there's just no
Speaker 1: firepower for that team on either side of the ball.
Speaker 1: So tough to analyze given the injuries. But how do
Speaker 1: you feel right now? But the Steelers laying seven and
Speaker 1: the over under at thirty nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if we know there's no Palancy and if there's
Speaker 2: a possibility that there's no Connor and no Juju, I
Speaker 2: think we have to take the points with the Bengals.
Speaker 2: As disgusting as it feels this Steelers offense is already
Speaker 2: putrid with Juju who is an elite receiver, and Connor
Speaker 2: who's above average runner, and Pouncy being one of the
Speaker 2: best centers in the game. You take all three of
Speaker 2: those away, you've got Mason Rudolph throwing to a bunch
Speaker 2: of randoms, his college teammate James Washington being one of them.
Speaker 2: The Deontay Johnson was bleeding out of his ears, like,
Speaker 2: what is the Steelers offense going to look like? And
Speaker 2: I despise the Bengals specifically on the defensive side of
Speaker 2: the ball, But I just I don't know how this
Speaker 2: doesn't move off of the seven look ahead with all
Speaker 2: these these injuries here, the total is suspiciously low as well,
Speaker 2: But given how poor both of these offenses are, I
Speaker 2: think that's kind of a stay away as well. But
Speaker 2: if these injuries trend in that direction, if the Steelers
Speaker 2: are going to be without some of those key players,
Speaker 2: I think we have to take the points with the Bengals.
Speaker 2: As icky as it feels.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean really, and when you look at it,
Speaker 1: I mean still at this point, the majority of the
Speaker 1: money is on the Steelers, but the majority of the
Speaker 1: bets actually is on the Steelers, but the majority the
Speaker 1: money is on the Bengals because I think, you know,
Speaker 1: most sharp bedders are probably realizing it's just not going
Speaker 1: to be many people out there. You know. This could
Speaker 1: be another game where Jaylen Samuels catches thirteen passes, you know,
Speaker 1: because I don't really know how else they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball. They are signing guys
Speaker 1: off the streets. So I agree, I have I have lost.
Speaker 1: I have lost with the Bengals this year, trying to
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, bank on the value. But at
Speaker 1: this point, if it stays at seven, I agree, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think you got to take that touchdown because again
Speaker 1: I don't see any way Connor plays. It seems highly
Speaker 1: unlikely that Smith Schuster plays, and probably not Deante Johnson,
Speaker 1: and again no Penalcy. It's just really hard to see
Speaker 1: them putting up points at all at this point. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think I take the value
Speaker 1: with the Bengals and hold my nose and probably do it.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Jaguars at the Titans.
Speaker 1: Titans here laying three at home, the over under at
Speaker 1: forty one to me, This is the exact correct spread
Speaker 1: and the exact correct total. The Titans are coming off
Speaker 1: of bye. They continue to look a little better offensively
Speaker 1: with Ryan Tannehill. The Jaguars get beat up a bit
Speaker 1: by the Colts and Nick Foles return, but they're certainly
Speaker 1: capable of winning this type of game, as they did
Speaker 1: earlier this year. So how do you feel about the
Speaker 1: Titans laying three at home with an over under of
Speaker 1: forty one.
Speaker 2: I think there's some value in the Titans here. I
Speaker 2: think this line should be three and a half. I
Speaker 2: think they should be getting the hook. And by looking
Speaker 2: at the betting pros portal right here, that minus three
Speaker 2: is at minus one twenty juice, which is telling me
Speaker 2: that the money is coming in on Tennessee. It's kind
Speaker 2: of weird. I think Nick Foles is a better quarterback
Speaker 2: than Gardner Minshew, but given the structure of this Jags offense,
Speaker 2: their inability to pass block, and their need for kind
Speaker 2: of playmaking at the quarterback position, I think Minshew's a
Speaker 2: better fit for the team. As ass backwards as that
Speaker 2: may sound, A lot of the struggles last week for
Speaker 2: the Jags was just Nick Foles's inability to make a play.
Speaker 2: And that's okay when you're on the Eagles, right when
Speaker 2: you have an offensive structure around you where your guys
Speaker 2: are gonna win, your offensive line's gonna win, and when
Speaker 2: your guys get the ball, they're going to make winning plays.
Speaker 2: But the Jags are kind of a team that needed
Speaker 2: that boost from Minshew. They needed his mobility and his
Speaker 2: ability to get out of the pocket and kind of
Speaker 2: create throwing lanes. And I just don't think they're gonna
Speaker 2: get that out of Foles. Plus, you've got the Titans
Speaker 2: coming off the by Ryan Tannills just doesn't really make
Speaker 2: that many mistakes at quarterback. We might be getting aj
Speaker 2: Brown back healthy. Yeah, I think the Titan should be
Speaker 2: getting the hook here. I think there's some value in
Speaker 2: the monastery.
Speaker 1: Well, from what I'm looking at, ninety five percent of
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Titans right now,
Speaker 1: so certainly Better's look to agree with you. And look,
Speaker 1: Tannehill has completely changed that offense, I think. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, you figured maybe it wouldn't be that much
Speaker 1: of an upgrade over Mariotta, but it really is. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're moving the ball through the air. Well, you always
Speaker 1: have Derrick Henry pounding the rock, the defense remains strong. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I get it, and off the buy, I
Speaker 1: do get it. But you know, I think the Jaguars
Speaker 1: are just one of these teams that I can't really
Speaker 1: get a read on. I feel like every time I
Speaker 1: expect them to come out a little flat, they come
Speaker 1: out looking better than I expect. Every time I think
Speaker 1: that they're going to put up a big game, I
Speaker 1: feel like they come out flat. So for me, you know,
Speaker 1: at three, I feel like this is where it's supposed
Speaker 1: to be. You kind of feel like, essentially at three,
Speaker 1: you're getting you're certainly getting value on the Titan. So
Speaker 1: that's one that you know, I could see. It's certainly
Speaker 1: the vast majority of betters are in agreement with you.
Speaker 1: But for me, this line feels about right. But it
Speaker 1: sounds like, given the amount of money that's coming in,
Speaker 1: if you do like the Titans, you should probably get
Speaker 1: in on it while it's at three.
Speaker 2: Because that hook, that hook's coming, it's coming.
Speaker 1: It's certainly coming. Let's move on to a game that
Speaker 1: might be the most bet game in the history of
Speaker 1: professional football, the Cowboys at the Patriots. Patriots here are
Speaker 1: laying six and a half with the over under of
Speaker 1: forty six. It's going to be really interesting to see
Speaker 1: how these bets break down. Considering again, you've got two
Speaker 1: of the most public teams in the game, The Patriots.
Speaker 1: We talked about that game a little bit earlier against
Speaker 1: the Eels. They win, but they really don't look that impressive. Again,
Speaker 1: the weather wasn't great, let's at least you know, acknowledge that.
Speaker 1: But the Pats haven't really looked that good offensively in
Speaker 1: a while. They've kind of been relying on their defense,
Speaker 1: which is great, but it's not quite as dominant as
Speaker 1: maybe it looked early in the season when they had
Speaker 1: that cupcake schedule. The Cowboys defense hasn't been tremendous either,
Speaker 1: but the offense is doing enough. Against the Lions, They're
Speaker 1: not running the ball that effectively these days, which is
Speaker 1: a little weird. Zeke has scored the touchdowns but really
Speaker 1: not gaining that many yards of the last couple of games.
Speaker 1: But they obviously have a lot of weapons. Even with
Speaker 1: Amari Cooper battling the knee injury, they're getting around Cobb
Speaker 1: involved more, Michael Gallup as an emerging star. So this
Speaker 1: should be a good one. Feel about the Patriots at
Speaker 1: home link six and a half with the total at
Speaker 1: forty six.
Speaker 2: I think under forty six is my favorite bed of
Speaker 2: the week so far. You look at what the Patriots
Speaker 2: do on defense, and they funnel you to run the ball,
Speaker 2: one because they're awesome in coverage, and two because a
Speaker 2: lot of the looks they give you in the front
Speaker 2: invite you to run the ball, and teams have had
Speaker 2: success with that. The Ravens obviously crushed them, and the
Speaker 2: Eagles had sincess on the ground yesterday or on Sunday,
Speaker 2: but they needed to throw the ball and when they did,
Speaker 2: they were unable to. And Bill's kind of allowing teams
Speaker 2: to run, knowing that eventually they'll need to throw the ball.
Speaker 2: And Dallas as an offense, they kind of want to
Speaker 2: run the ball. They've been better when they let Dak
Speaker 2: get back there and throw the rock. He's been incredible
Speaker 2: these last two weeks when Kellen Moore gets to design
Speaker 2: these passing plays to let him spread the ball around
Speaker 2: to these great receivers. But at their core, they still
Speaker 2: want to run the ball. And on the other side,
Speaker 2: the Patriots passing attack has not I've been good whatsoever.
Speaker 2: And I'm really worried about the Patriots offensive line trying
Speaker 2: to pass block against Robert Quinn, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Malie Collins.
Speaker 2: So I think under forty six is far and away
Speaker 2: my favorite bet of the week so far. And in
Speaker 2: terms of the game itself, I mean, I hate lining
Speaker 2: up to fade the Pats, but I think there's some
Speaker 2: value in taking the points as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you on both. Again, this is
Speaker 1: a game where I see the value in the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm gonna be able to pull
Speaker 1: the trigger on it because I rarely am against the Patriots,
Speaker 1: but yeah, I agree. I think the Patriots right now
Speaker 1: are getting a little bit exposed. I mean, there's still
Speaker 1: a great team. They'll still probably be in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: They'll still probably win the Super Bowl, as you and
Speaker 1: I as Jets fans know, but in the end, for
Speaker 1: right now, look, you saw Brady at the end of
Speaker 1: that game. He took a beating a little bit, but
Speaker 1: he's he's gonna be taking a beating a little bit
Speaker 1: more behind that offensive line. They just don't have the
Speaker 1: wide receiver death. I know, Mohammed Sanus on board. You
Speaker 1: know they still have Julian Edelman of course philiped or
Speaker 1: set but they just do not have the firepower on
Speaker 1: offense and they can't run the ball, so it's really
Speaker 1: affecting the way they're able to move. And I agree,
Speaker 1: you know, the way you attack the Patriots if you can,
Speaker 1: is on the ground. I think you're going to see
Speaker 1: a lot of zeke here, So I could see it
Speaker 1: being a low scoring, not crazy low scoring, but a
Speaker 1: low scoring kind of drag it out game that's going
Speaker 1: to be tight. So I agree, if I'm forced to
Speaker 1: go anywhere, I would go under the forty six and
Speaker 1: the Cowboys getting the points. Again, that's scary at this
Speaker 1: point even you know when you're getting under a touchdown here,
Speaker 1: But I do think that there is value there. As
Speaker 1: you said, let's move on here to the Packers at
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. The forty nine ers here are
Speaker 1: now laying three and the over under is at forty six.
Speaker 1: Another really good game here. Packers are coming off a
Speaker 1: bye and they're bounce back win against the Panthers. They're
Speaker 1: getting a little bit healthier here. Devonte Adams certainly look
Speaker 1: closer to full strength in their last game. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers wind up winning and covering depending on
Speaker 1: when you got that spread against the Cardinal likes, I mean,
Speaker 1: I feel horrible for betters who who didn't get it
Speaker 1: until late when the line had moved pretty significantly from
Speaker 1: I think it opened at eleven and a half and
Speaker 1: it dropped at nine and a half by the end.
Speaker 1: Over All, though not the greatest effort from the forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers, especially defensively. Offensively, Jimmy g throws the four
Speaker 1: touchdown pass, so of course they're still not having great
Speaker 1: success the last few weeks running the ball, and that's
Speaker 1: really where you attack the Packers better. So how do
Speaker 1: you feel here? A big one forty nine Ers laying
Speaker 1: three at home to the Packers with an over under
Speaker 1: at forty six.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the injury report is going to be massively important here.
Speaker 2: I think we're still going to be missing Joe Staley.
Speaker 2: He had minor there's no succincive minor surgery. He had
Speaker 2: finger surgery following that Seahawks game, missed last week. I
Speaker 2: don't know what the timetable is for his return. And
Speaker 2: then of course Emmanuel Sanders played hurt against the Cardinals
Speaker 2: last week. George kill missed the game. Kill's really important
Speaker 2: to this offense. He unlocks a lot of things at
Speaker 2: the second level and really helps the run game as
Speaker 2: well because his threat and play action, whether it be
Speaker 2: down the seam or on those crossers, really adds a
Speaker 2: dimension to the Shanahan offense that is important for Jimmy
Speaker 2: G to operate. I've never been the biggest Jimmy G fan,
Speaker 2: so I've not been surprised by his I think a
Speaker 2: dozen turnovers so far this year. This line is very interesting.
Speaker 2: This line is very respectful to the Packers. I think
Speaker 2: they are coming off of by and they have looked
Speaker 2: great as of late, last scene, beating the Carolina Panthers
Speaker 2: pretty badly at home.
Speaker 1: And I'm also.
Speaker 2: Interested to see how much the public is lining up
Speaker 2: to take the Packers sixty percent of the tickets. The
Speaker 2: money is a little bit more balanced at fifty two
Speaker 2: percent for Green Bay. I think there's a little bit
Speaker 2: of value on the Packers coming off the bye, but
Speaker 2: I don't know. They are just very fine margins that
Speaker 2: are separating these two teams right now, and given the
Speaker 2: injury speculation at this time, I'm in wait and see
Speaker 2: mode with Wiscontin.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really think I want any part of
Speaker 1: this whatever happens. You know, I could see if Sanders
Speaker 1: and Kittle and Staley are all out, then I see
Speaker 1: the value in the Packers at that point. But if
Speaker 1: any or especially all of them are healthy, I just
Speaker 1: don't have a great feel for it. Again, you know,
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers, I was kind of slow to
Speaker 1: come around on them. Then I bought all in and
Speaker 1: I've watched them closely the last few games. Again, you
Speaker 1: take Kittle out of that game, and you know, it's
Speaker 1: just it's not the same offense when you have it. Sanders,
Speaker 1: you know the fact that he was questionable coming in
Speaker 1: because he left the game before, and he leaves this
Speaker 1: last game against the Cardinals also with the injury. It's
Speaker 1: a little tough to rely on him going forward. I
Speaker 1: mean could look Deebo Samuel certainly stepped up. You know,
Speaker 1: they have a couple of guys that they can throw
Speaker 1: in there. But it's not a game where I would
Speaker 1: feel really confident in their ability to move the ball
Speaker 1: through the air. Especially the Packers. Although their past defense
Speaker 1: isn't quite as good as it showed early on this season,
Speaker 1: it's still their strength and I don't really have that
Speaker 1: much faith in the forty nine ers to be able
Speaker 1: to run the ball, So it's just it's Sunday night.
Speaker 1: I don't really have a great feel for it at
Speaker 1: this point, unless again, the forty nine ers are completely
Speaker 1: down all those skill players. If so, then I'll lean
Speaker 1: the Packers. But at home on Sunday night, it's going
Speaker 1: to be a little difficult for me to go against them.
Speaker 1: So it's probably gonna be a game that I'm going
Speaker 1: to stay away from because it's just it's not a
Speaker 1: line that I feel all that comfortable with. Let's move
Speaker 1: on here to our final game, the Monday night football
Speaker 1: game Ravens at the Rams, still showing the Ravens laying
Speaker 1: three and a half and the over under at forty
Speaker 1: six and a half, which has come down a bit
Speaker 1: from forty nine. When I saw the Ravens, they look
Speaker 1: absolutely unstoppable. Lamar Jackson is playing at an incredibly high level,
Speaker 1: and the defense is healthy and gelling. It's just hard
Speaker 1: to see them being beat, especially by a Rams team
Speaker 1: that has one of the worst offensive lines in the game.
Speaker 1: They lack any offensive firepower at this point. Maybe Brandon
Speaker 1: Cooks comes back Robert Woods apparently missed this last game
Speaker 1: against the The personal issues so used him. He's gonna play.
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley ran pretty well. But I don't know about you, man.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this game at Ravens, you know, three
Speaker 1: and a half. I love the Ravens at that number,
Speaker 1: and I'd be surprised if it doesn't grow.
Speaker 2: You know what the preseason line was on this game?
Speaker 2: How about Rams minus seven and a half. Oh my god, Oh,
Speaker 2: how the times have changed? Yeah, I mean even the
Speaker 2: one week look ahead was Ravens plus one. You knew
Speaker 2: that was gonna shift with how the Ravens dominated the
Speaker 2: Texans last week and the Rams while they did win,
Speaker 2: while they did cover, it was in very ugly fashion
Speaker 2: for the entire world to watch on an Island game
Speaker 2: on Sunday night football. Unsurprisingly, eighty percent of the bets
Speaker 2: are on Baltimore, but the money's there as well at
Speaker 2: seventy percent. So yeah, I think this line is fair.
Speaker 2: The fake sharp of me thinks that what are you doing, idiot?
Speaker 2: You have to take the Rams here? Like, how can
Speaker 2: they be getting this many points at home? The Ravens
Speaker 2: have never been more overvalue than they are, right, now.
Speaker 2: But the Ravens have also earned this inflation because not
Speaker 2: only are they doing incredible things on the offensive side
Speaker 2: of the ball with Lamar and his MVP candidacy, but
Speaker 2: since getting Marcus Peters and since having Marlin Humphrey and
Speaker 2: the other quarterback which is I'm blanking on right now
Speaker 2: coming back Jimmy Smith coming back to full health, this
Speaker 2: defense has been awesome. They had a couple of sacks
Speaker 2: yesterday were one hundred percent coverage sacks because they're missing
Speaker 2: Zadari Smith in that front from a pure pass rushing perspective,
Speaker 2: but guys were blanketed yesterday. And if we're not with Woods,
Speaker 2: and if we don't have Brandon Cooks, the Rams are
Speaker 2: gonna have a tough time moving the ball against this defense.
Speaker 2: So ultimately, I think this is a fair line. And
Speaker 2: I'm not going to hate you for laying three and
Speaker 2: a half with the races.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't care that. I'm going to be totally
Speaker 1: aligned with the public on this one because because I
Speaker 1: think that you are. Look, I've watched you know, on
Speaker 1: Football Sunday, I have you know, four TVs going one
Speaker 1: of them has red zone, and then I pick a
Speaker 1: couple of games that I watch necessarily, I'm trying to
Speaker 1: watch the Rams closely just because I want to understand
Speaker 1: what is happening right now. You just their defense is legitimate, Okay,
Speaker 1: so their defense is gonna be fine, But with you know,
Speaker 1: the way the Ravens are playing, you know, I'd like
Speaker 1: to see them play the Patriots again because I'd like
Speaker 1: to see what it is if you have a look
Speaker 1: at exactly what their offense looks like when you play
Speaker 1: them in a regular season game, and whether or not
Speaker 1: you can make any sort of adjustments to try to
Speaker 1: slow down Jackson. But the first time you see them
Speaker 1: this season, with the way Jackson is playing, as good
Speaker 1: as the Rams defense is playing, you know, especially since
Speaker 1: they added Jalen Ramsey, I just don't think it's gonna
Speaker 1: matter all that much. And more importantly, I just don't
Speaker 1: understand how the Rams are going to be able to
Speaker 1: do anything offensively. They just can't. Golf is really showing
Speaker 1: who he is. He is never gonna have enough time
Speaker 1: to throw in that pocket. Because even if you don't
Speaker 1: love the Ravens pass rush, which is certainly solid enough,
Speaker 1: that offensive line is abysmal. I mean, they're playing with
Speaker 1: like four backups at this point, it's just not gonna
Speaker 1: be going well for them. So again, they can stop
Speaker 1: the run. You know, once Brandon Williams came back, they've
Speaker 1: been able to do that. You mentioned the cornerbacks. The
Speaker 1: defense as a whole is gelling. This is as much
Speaker 1: about the Rams and kind of my lack of respect
Speaker 1: for them as it is about my immen's respect for
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So I'll be aligned with the public on
Speaker 1: this one. I'm okay with it, And again, as you
Speaker 1: talked about, even when it opened, I think it was
Speaker 1: a pick em as you mentioned, and it's just swung
Speaker 1: wildly to the Ravens. So for me, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think the public's gonna continue to pound this, and
Speaker 1: I would get it on the Ravens now because I
Speaker 1: don't see it coming back.
Speaker 2: Sometimes you gotta put your SpongeBob SquarePants.
Speaker 1: I don't mind doing it every now and then with
Speaker 1: a game like this, and I certainly will be doing
Speaker 1: it here. That's gonna do it for today's show, Rich,
Speaker 1: it was great having you back on. Remind everybody where
Speaker 1: they can find more of you in your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, check out our podcast, grid Iron Gamble you can
Speaker 2: get it on any podcastcher We're also on Twitter at
Speaker 2: grid on Iron Gamble check us out.
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming back on. Hopefully we
Speaker 1: can do it one more time before the end of
Speaker 1: the season.
Speaker 2: My pleasure, j E.
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Speaker 1: Junior Brown Trummet. We'll be back later this week giving
Speaker 1: some of our best bets for Week twelve. I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you then